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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from growing in Joe.

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Speaker 1: We're saying it's a cash touch.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 2: like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabation you want to pa.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by vet MGM

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Speaker 4: Brendan glas Sheen and the host chair here with you

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Speaker 4: for our sixth annual.

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Speaker 1: Experts Guide to Fantasy Football.

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Speaker 4: We have two of Fantasy Pro's top five most accurate

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Speaker 4: season long rankers over the last couple of years. Chris Rayvaughn,

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Speaker 4: analyst at the Action Network, Sean Kerner, the director of

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Speaker 4: predictive Analytics at the Action Network. You can find their

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Speaker 4: rankings all year long over at Fantasy Labs Fantasy labs

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Speaker 4: dot com.

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Speaker 1: We have a lot to get to.

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Speaker 4: We picked and choosed and we found the nuts and

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Speaker 4: bolts from what you guys did last year. And we're

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Speaker 4: getting set for the twenty twenty four season, just before

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Speaker 4: the full week of preseason games with every team in action.

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Speaker 1: No more of that Hall of Fame nonsense.

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Speaker 4: So I will turn it over to both of you

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Speaker 4: for most of this, and I'm really looking forward to

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Speaker 4: this in terms of what I can learn and I

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Speaker 4: hope the audience can learn as well. So Chris, I'll

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Speaker 4: go to you first. From a big picture standpoint. We're

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Speaker 4: gonna use a lot of terminology throughout the course of

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Speaker 4: this next hour or so, terms preparation, using the preseason,

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Speaker 4: mock drafting, all of those kinds of things in this

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Speaker 4: first segment. So take it away big picture approach. What's

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Speaker 4: the first thing that comes to mind, Chris Raybam.

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Speaker 5: So, I think the first thing you need to know

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Speaker 5: is just your league rules, right, and this you know

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Speaker 5: for people that do just it goes without saying. But

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Speaker 5: know your starting linet requirements, know your draft timer, know

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Speaker 5: your sites average draft position aka a d P that's

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Speaker 5: what we'll call it, because these things are gonna change

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Speaker 5: whether you're drafting on let's say ESPN, Yahoo, NFL dot Com,

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Speaker 5: so you can a guy who might be going a

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Speaker 5: lot later on one site might be going earlier on

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Speaker 5: another site in terms of their average draft position. Uh,

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Speaker 5: and just the way you value players is going to

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Speaker 5: change if you're you know, starting two wide receivers in

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Speaker 5: a flex versus three wide receivers in a flex, things

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Speaker 5: like that, so that those are the most important things

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Speaker 5: if you're just starting out in fantasy uh to know

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Speaker 5: just know all of your league rules and league settings.

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Speaker 4: Sean, the rankings are near and dear to your heart.

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Speaker 4: So how does that all factor into the big picture approach?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so what Ray Bond said is correct. You know,

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Speaker 6: just you have to know your league scoring settings. So

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Speaker 6: I based my rankings based on those settings. And then

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Speaker 6: you just want to have a general idea is how

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Speaker 6: you approach your draft from different pick slots.

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Speaker 3: And we'll get to that in a bit.

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Speaker 6: I think that comes with practice mock drafts, but also

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Speaker 6: you know, when it comes to ADP, it gives you

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Speaker 6: a rough idea where players are going to be drafted,

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Speaker 6: but you have to know your league specifically. You know,

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Speaker 6: if you're in a home league, you're going to be

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Speaker 6: playing with your buddies, your friends. You might know that

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Speaker 6: you have three or four diehard Giants fans in your league,

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Speaker 6: so if you like cor league neighbors, you might have

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Speaker 6: to take someone like that a bit earlier than ADP.

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Speaker 6: So it's just understanding your league mates it's a lot

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Speaker 6: like playing poker. You have to read your league as well,

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Speaker 6: So I use my rankings as a rough guideline. But also,

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Speaker 6: you know, I'm trying to anticipate where the rest of

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Speaker 6: the league's going to go. So that's that's a big

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Speaker 6: part of my strategy is knowing the actual league mates

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Speaker 6: I'm drafting with Nicoll.

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Speaker 4: Your example is the Giants, because it might be Molik neighbors,

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Speaker 4: and then it might just stop there.

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Speaker 1: Right, I don't know, I mean, you tell me. We'll

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Speaker 1: use examples.

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Speaker 4: I'm sure throughout the course of the of the program

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Speaker 4: we'll mention the top of the draft boards, especially no

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Speaker 4: matter the format. So, Chris, I mentioned a second ago

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Speaker 4: about mock drafting, because that's what a lot of people

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Speaker 4: as of today as we sit here are recording on

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Speaker 4: August fifth, heading into week two of the preseason. Why

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Speaker 4: does mock draft Why does mock drafting matter so much?

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Speaker 1: Chris?

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Speaker 5: It matters because you know, if you really care about

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Speaker 5: a league, and you're gonna want to kind of go

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Speaker 5: through it once and just get a sense of what

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Speaker 5: value is available at each pick that you're up, So

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Speaker 5: you know, you can kind of do it by just

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Speaker 5: looking at ADP and going through it manually, but I

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Speaker 5: think you get a better sense by mock drafting.

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Speaker 2: And then one thing that I think is.

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Speaker 5: Really cool that you could do if if you don't

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Speaker 5: want to straight up mock draft is just kind of

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Speaker 5: look at the board starting from the last round and

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Speaker 5: then going backwards. Because what I like to do, for example,

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Speaker 5: is say, okay, if there's fifteen rounds in my draft,

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Speaker 5: and I look at round fifteen and say, okay, what

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Speaker 5: where's the value in round fifteen? And I might say, okay,

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Speaker 5: there's a bunch of quarterbacks that I could still start

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Speaker 5: here in round fifteen, so I can.

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Speaker 2: Wait on quarterback until the end. I can be the

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Speaker 2: last person to take a quarterback.

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Speaker 5: Then I go to round fourteen and I'd say, oh,

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Speaker 5: there's actually a couple of wide receivers that I wouldn't mind,

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Speaker 5: you know, taking a flyer on as my the last

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Speaker 5: wide receiver on my bench. So and you kind of

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Speaker 5: go up and it kind of it kind of shows

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Speaker 5: you where the value is in your draft, and then

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Speaker 5: you don't have to necessarily go through the hassle of

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Speaker 5: mock drafting or anything like that. But you know, for

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Speaker 5: you can also use our rankings and just you know,

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Speaker 5: we have a tool you can input your weak settings

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Speaker 5: and and kind of get the rankings that would correspond

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Speaker 5: to that. But I think mock drafting is important because

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Speaker 5: especially if you haven't drafted before, if you haven't drafted

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Speaker 5: in this week, this specific league type on the site

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Speaker 5: with the ADP for that specific year, it definitely at

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Speaker 5: least doing one does give you, I think, a great

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Speaker 5: sense of how the draft could go. And even something

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Speaker 5: as simple as you know, getting used to the pick

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Speaker 5: timer if you're gonna be drafting live, is something that

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Speaker 5: I think mock drafting helps with. So those are the

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Speaker 5: reasons why I think mock drafting are important.

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Speaker 2: But could you could.

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Speaker 5: Also just do it in your in your head and

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Speaker 5: kind of just go through it. But I think the

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Speaker 5: important thing is to look at a draft, to look

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Speaker 5: at ADP, to look at your roster requirements, and and

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Speaker 5: go and look at each round where the value is positionally,

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Speaker 5: you know, because that's what's going to dictate your draft.

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Speaker 5: You don't want to go and take you know, a

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Speaker 5: quarterback and a tight end in the first two rounds

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Speaker 5: when when you feel like you could get you know,

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Speaker 5: both of those positions. At value in the double digit rounds,

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Speaker 5: for example. So I think that's why mock drafting is.

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Speaker 4: Very important, an upside down approach that could throw a

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Speaker 4: wrench in to I'm curious, Sean if that throws a

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Speaker 4: wrench into how you would absorb and process rankings, and

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Speaker 4: that blends into positional scarce, uh scarcity in terms of trying.

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Speaker 1: To just.

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Speaker 4: Maximize where you're drafting and what you're what an ADP is,

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Speaker 4: but also where you end up being and how the

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Speaker 4: board looks.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and I think that's something that you can kind

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Speaker 6: of figure out when you're doing mock drafts. Like like

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Speaker 6: Raymund said, you know, if you draft a quarterback and

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Speaker 6: tight end early, maybe you do that in a mock

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Speaker 6: draft and you can kind of see that you screw

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Speaker 6: yourself over because you're you know, you end up taking

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Speaker 6: a backup running back as your RB two. So I

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Speaker 6: think those are the things that you can kind of

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Speaker 6: iron out when you do those. But when it comes

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Speaker 6: to position scarcity, you know, every position is a bit different.

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Speaker 6: Running backs, I guess you can say there's position scarcity

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Speaker 6: there because a lot more teams use running back by

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Speaker 6: committees now, so there's a few of far between, like

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Speaker 6: true warhorse running backs these days. So you know, after

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Speaker 6: the first six or seven running backs off the board,

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Speaker 6: you start to have question marks about running backs. But

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Speaker 6: that's not to say that you need to draft them early.

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Speaker 6: The running back position itself is very fragile. You know

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Speaker 6: that they get injured a lot. So you know, while

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Speaker 6: wide receiver is a little bit more stable, I would

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Speaker 6: say that's that's a scarce position because that's a position

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Speaker 6: that you can rarely find, you know, a top ten,

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Speaker 6: top twenty wide receiver on the waiver wire in season.

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Speaker 6: Actually consider the wide receiver position to be pretty scarce,

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Speaker 6: which is why I like to attack it early in drafts.

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Speaker 6: And then we could talk about, you know, our approach

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Speaker 6: a bit later on when it comes to the onesie

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Speaker 6: positions like quarterback and tight end. But I just think

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Speaker 6: these are the kinds of things that you figure out

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Speaker 6: when you do enough drafts that oh, you can actually

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Speaker 6: wait and still get some good running backs later or

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Speaker 6: get a great quarterback later in the draft. So that's

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Speaker 6: why I always like to practice, whether it's mock drafts

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Speaker 6: or just doing actual bestball drafts, to kind of hone

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Speaker 6: in on my actual approach and.

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Speaker 4: We're going to dig into the weeds and a lot

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Speaker 4: of this later on, but just to use an example

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Speaker 4: up to playoff Raybond what he's talking about with scarcity positions.

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Speaker 1: So I'm using a specific example.

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Speaker 4: But when you say the stud wide receivers at the top,

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Speaker 4: are you how much are you considering a guy that

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Speaker 4: gets seven eight targets a game? Who's this quarterback? Is

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Speaker 4: it an offensive coach? I know those are all specific

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Speaker 4: things that we'll get into that more and we'll dig

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Speaker 4: out the weeds more later, but are those all when

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Speaker 4: you when you say scarcity, like when's the cutoff line?

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Speaker 4: When you get to a certain number of guys at receiver?

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Speaker 4: And Sean I think did a good job of laying

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Speaker 4: out the running back board after seven or eight guys,

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Speaker 4: it gets not necessarily finn But I like the word

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Speaker 4: he used, fragile.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So what I think Sean is alluding to here with

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Speaker 5: the wide receivers is that today, in this day and age,

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Speaker 5: when you're drafting in twenty twenty four, for example, you know,

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Speaker 5: I think the the approach that's gonna that's gonna work

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Speaker 5: for the for most people is to draft wide receivers

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Speaker 5: early and maybe a stud tight end and then running

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Speaker 5: backs and then weight on quarterbacks. And the reason being

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Speaker 5: when you when you ask like, Okay, what's the cutoff,

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Speaker 5: it's it depends on your league and how many wide

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Speaker 5: receivers you're starting. Most leagues are gonna be starting at

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Speaker 5: least two wide receivers and then a flex. Some are

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Speaker 5: three wide receivers, no flex. Some are three wide receivers

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Speaker 5: and a flex or multiple flexes. But the point being

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Speaker 5: you're gonna need twenty four to thirty Your league is

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Speaker 5: gonna need twenty four to thirty six starting wide receivers

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Speaker 5: like in that league.

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Speaker 2: And if you.

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Speaker 5: Look around the NFL, there's you know, most teams, maybe

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Speaker 5: like two thirds of teams have like a bona fide,

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Speaker 5: like top number one target that's gonna get those seven

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Speaker 5: eight targets per game. I think the target volume is

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Speaker 5: always gonna be the most important thing because even if

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Speaker 5: you have like you know, to go back to like

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Speaker 5: a week neighbors, if he's getting you know, seven eight

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Speaker 5: nine targets, even on a bad team, that's gonna be

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Speaker 5: better than a guy getting you know, four to five.

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Speaker 2: Targets on a really good team.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, almost all the time, there's gonna be

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Speaker 5: touchdown variants in that. But but what Sean hit on

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Speaker 5: that I think is really important is that these guys

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Speaker 5: aren't gonna be available on waivers because it's not like

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Speaker 5: running back, where one guy goes down and a backup

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Speaker 5: could come from, you know, being a guy who's getting

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Speaker 5: one or two carries, one or two snaps maybe to

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Speaker 5: a guy who's getting you know, fifteen twenty touches in

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Speaker 5: the game, Whereas with pass catchers, there's just kind of

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Speaker 5: a pecking one and so you know, you're you're not

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Speaker 5: You're not only not gonna find these guys on the

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Speaker 5: waiver wire, but it's even hard to find these guys

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Speaker 5: in the late rounds. Like you might find a rookie

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Speaker 5: gemmer to like a Poopa Nakula, but you know, I'm

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Speaker 5: sure Poop and a Cua probably went undrafted in a

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Speaker 5: bunch of leagues last year.

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Speaker 2: So you know, those guys are just hard to find.

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Speaker 5: Whereas because running backs aren't getting the high workloads that

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Speaker 5: they used to, almost nobody is like if you don't

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Speaker 5: get that first draft slot and get a Christian McCaffrey,

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Speaker 5: and you know, there's a couple other guys, you know,

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Speaker 5: the briest Halls and the bijons. But if you don't

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Speaker 5: get those guys, you know, almost no one is really

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Speaker 5: gonna have those because in every league, you're gonna start

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Speaker 5: two running backs, you know, maybe uh maybe more if

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Speaker 5: you're if you're gonna need one in the flex, but

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Speaker 5: wide receiver these this day, these days, because of the

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Speaker 5: past happy nature of the NFL, wide receivers tend to

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Speaker 5: be better flex options.

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Speaker 2: Like if you're planning out your.

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Speaker 5: Flex position, uh, generally, wide receiver at this point is

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Speaker 5: better because these running backs there's just not enough of

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Speaker 5: them getting uh these workhorse rows, and they're also getting

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Speaker 5: injured more, which is something we also have to talk about.

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Speaker 5: Like you know, there's there's a there's if you have

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Speaker 5: to start you know, you have there's a seventeen week season.

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Speaker 5: You have to start, uh, you know, two running backs,

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Speaker 5: and there's a bye week, and then you have to

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Speaker 5: project how many games these running backs are gonna miss.

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Speaker 5: You can kind of see how many running backs you need,

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Speaker 5: how many wide receivers you're gonna need, everyone's gonna need, uh,

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Speaker 5: everyone's gonna kind of even out at running back, which

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Speaker 5: is why it's not as scarce, whereas if.

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Speaker 2: You don't if you don't get you know, those.

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Speaker 5: Twenty five thirty wide receivers that are you can rely

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Speaker 5: on for those high target numbers or like a stud end,

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Speaker 5: those stud tight ends. Uh, that's when it's not scarce anymore.

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Speaker 5: There's a bunch of guys in that mid tier, you know,

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Speaker 5: from like wide receiver thirty to fifty that are going

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Speaker 5: to kind of even out over the course of the season.

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Speaker 2: But uh, those stud wide receivers is gonna be really

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Speaker 2: hard to replace those guys.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: So that's why they have turned into the most scarce position.

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Speaker 4: So as a listener and as a fan, I'm getting

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Speaker 4: I'm getting excited. And I think as a listener as well,

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Speaker 4: not just hosting this, but as a listener, I can

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Speaker 4: imagine listeners are already kind of picturing in their minds,

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Speaker 4: are painting the picture of what depth charts look like

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Speaker 4: and what kinds of teams you guys are talking about,

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Speaker 4: like you mapped it out. A good team might have

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Speaker 4: them elak neighbors. I guess we'll just keep using keep

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Speaker 4: using the giants as an example, because we well, we

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Speaker 4: did it, so what what the hell?

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Speaker 1: We'll keep We'll keep doing it.

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Speaker 4: But you map out some other teams, I'm just rattling

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Speaker 4: them off the top of my head, Ceedee Lamb in

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Speaker 4: Dallas or DeVante Adams in Las Vegas, just picking out

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Speaker 4: those kinds of guys as the stud receiver. So that

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Speaker 4: introduces the topic, Curner, of streaming and why the importance.

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Speaker 4: There's an importance of streaming, and there's it's not just streaming,

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Speaker 4: but how to stream Let's dive into.

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Speaker 2: That and what is it too?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's a good way, good call, Raybon.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: So streaming is a concept of you're treating that roster

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Speaker 6: slot as just a week to week decision, where you

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Speaker 6: could be just taking the best player available on the

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Speaker 6: waiver wire any given week. So the best example of that,

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Speaker 6: I think would be the quarterback position. In leagues where

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Speaker 6: you only draft one quarterback, you're often going to have

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Speaker 6: fifteen or more starting quarterbacks that we available on the

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Speaker 6: waiver wire, and oftentimes one of those quarterbacks I might

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Speaker 6: have ranked inside my top ten, my top fifteen, just

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Speaker 6: based on the matchup or how you know that quarterback's playing.

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Speaker 6: So if let's say I'd skip out on drafting a

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Speaker 6: top ten quarterback and I just take a late round quarterback.

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Speaker 6: Any given week, there might be a quarterback available on

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Speaker 6: the waiver wire that I should be starting.

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Speaker 3: And I have done.

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Speaker 6: Articles in the past where I do this throughout the season,

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Speaker 6: and I was actually able to stream a top ten

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Speaker 6: sometimes like a top eight quarterback just by doing this,

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Speaker 6: by taking the best available quarterback on the waverar every week.

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Speaker 6: So I think it's a very underappreciated strategy in the draft,

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Speaker 6: just knowing that you have that as a you know,

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Speaker 6: a safety net if you don't take the quarterback early.

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Speaker 6: And oftentimes by implementing this strategy, I'd actually ended up

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Speaker 6: with like a top five quarterback for the rest of

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Speaker 6: the season. I did that with you know, justin Herbert

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Speaker 6: his rookie season, CJ Stroud last year. I know some

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Speaker 6: people picked him up.

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Speaker 3: So this is a.

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Speaker 6: Very viable strategy where the worst case narrator, you can

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Speaker 6: just be taking a top ten, top fifteen quarterback every week,

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Speaker 6: and the best case scenarios you actually end up keeping

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Speaker 6: one of them as a top five quarterback. So that's

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Speaker 6: kind of what we say, when you don't really have

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Speaker 6: to take quarterback early, you have this option later in

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Speaker 6: the draft to maybe get a sneaky upside fire like

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Speaker 6: a Jane Daniels, or just by streaming you can end

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Speaker 6: up with the top five quarterback or top ten quarterback.

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Speaker 6: And another thing to just point out real quick is

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Speaker 6: kicker and defense. I consider those two slots to be

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Speaker 6: streaming only. I never draft one of those positions unless

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Speaker 6: I believe rules make you draft one. So what I

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Speaker 6: do is typically instead of drafting a kicker defense, at

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Speaker 6: the end of the draft, I just draft two more

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Speaker 6: backup running backs just the event they're starting running back

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Speaker 6: gets injured or benched, whatever, anything can happen the week's

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Speaker 6: heading up to week one. I've done this before and

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Speaker 6: ended up with like James Connor was an example. I

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Speaker 6: picked him up instead of drafting a kicker defense, and

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Speaker 6: Le'Veon Bell was suspended a handful of games and ended

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Speaker 6: up missing most of the season, and James Connor was

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Speaker 6: the league winning pick. So I think instead of drafting

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Speaker 6: a kicker defense, I always say to draft.

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Speaker 3: Two flyer running backs.

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Speaker 6: Anything can happen, and if it doesn't pan out by

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Speaker 6: week one, you could drop them.

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Speaker 1: Right you're holding on. You're holding on before you have

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Speaker 1: to let them go to the market.

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Speaker 3: It's a lottery ticket. Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and then obviously the week of you're gonna need

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Speaker 6: to pick up a kicker defense. At that point you

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Speaker 6: can release these guys or whoever you want.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but at that point, every.

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Speaker 6: Week you can stream a kicker defense, there's gonna be

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Speaker 6: a top ten one available. So I in typical leagues

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Speaker 6: where you don't have to draft a kicker defense, I

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Speaker 6: advise not doing.

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Speaker 2: It, and so just to put a bow on it.

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Speaker 5: When you think about positional skill, if people want takeaways,

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Speaker 5: it's there's thirty two teams in the league. Every team's

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Speaker 5: gonna start a kicker, every team's gonna start a defense,

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Speaker 5: every team's gonna start a quarterback. There's enough of those

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Speaker 5: guys to go around that you can stream them that

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Speaker 5: you don't have to draft them. So the real thing is,

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Speaker 5: don't be afraid to draft your fourth wide receiver before

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Speaker 5: your starting quarterback. Don't be afraid to draft your third

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Speaker 5: or forced running back before you draft your quarterback. You

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Speaker 5: know those are the because those are the guys where

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Speaker 5: with wide receiver you want quality. Those guys are scarce.

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Speaker 5: There's only gonna be so many guys getting those. You know, seven, eight,

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Speaker 5: nine targets, and the same even goes for tight end.

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Speaker 5: Like tight end, you know there if you can get

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Speaker 5: a stud, it's a lot better because streaming a tight

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Speaker 5: end is a lot harder because they're even though there's

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Speaker 5: thirty two teams, tight ends aren't always very involved in

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Speaker 5: their team's offenses outside of the studs. So with wide

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Speaker 5: receivers you want quality, which you want in those studs,

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Speaker 5: which is why you draft them early and then middle

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Speaker 5: rounds you want to kind of load up at mid

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Speaker 5: to eight rounds. You want to be loading up on

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Speaker 5: quantity at running back because running backs missed about twice

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Speaker 5: as many games as other positions. Uh, and you know,

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Speaker 5: most of those guys are going to get drafted, Like

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Speaker 5: you know, most about in a twelve team league, people

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Speaker 5: are probably like fifty to sixty at least running backs

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Speaker 5: are going to get drafted. So most teams starter and

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Speaker 5: backup is going to get drafted. So even though even

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Speaker 5: if you you know project a running back to start

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Speaker 5: the season, as you know the clear backup, you know,

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Speaker 5: because running backs are so injury prone, you you're still

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Speaker 5: getting a high upside guy even if you're taking like

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Speaker 5: you know, the RB fifty uh in the you know,

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Speaker 5: ninth or tenth round before you have a quarterback. You know,

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Speaker 5: so though, that's really the important thing to keep in mind.

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Speaker 5: You don't have to draft your starting lineup first and

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Speaker 5: trying to fill your quarterback spot.

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Speaker 2: And you know, even.

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Speaker 5: For for some really it's you know, people that are

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Speaker 5: new to drafting. Sometimes I even see them, you know,

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Speaker 5: draft kicker and defense before they start drafting their bench.

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Speaker 2: Which is also a big, big mistake of Sean say, you.

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Speaker 5: Don't even need to draft those guys period unless they

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Speaker 5: make you and you just have to make sure to

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Speaker 5: pick them up before lock you know, in week one

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Speaker 5: and keep streaming. But yeah, don't be afraid to just

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Speaker 5: load up on wide receivers, running backs and you know,

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Speaker 5: a stud tight end and you know, in even your

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Speaker 5: bench for the wide receivers and running.

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Speaker 2: Backs before you draft quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Just as fans of the sport, it is fascinating your

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Speaker 4: Fantasy pros ADP rankings up for quarterback. And I'm glad

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Speaker 4: Kerner brought up the rookie class because Caleb Williams and

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Speaker 4: Jayden Daniels are inside the top fifteen and two rookies

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Speaker 4: last year Stroud and Richardson are in the top six,

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Speaker 4: and maybe those guys at some point last year are

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Speaker 4: already top twelve. And I'm using twelve just because if

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Speaker 4: it's a twelve team league, right and your cutoff point

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Speaker 4: after so, say sixteen, I think most leagues would go

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Speaker 4: up to sixteen, most eight ten, twelve, sixteen, maybe some fourteen's,

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Speaker 4: but you know, justin Herberts your cutoff line. And then

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Speaker 4: to Kerner's point, you got guys like Lawrence, Cousins, Rogers,

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Speaker 4: Stafford all available to you after sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Guys.

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Speaker 4: But I'm glad you brought up the the rookie class

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Speaker 4: because I think that's just a reflection of where the

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Speaker 4: league is too, where the league's going as a pass

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Speaker 4: happy league, and if you can get it done on

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Speaker 4: the ground, as we saw from Richardson, Kyler Murray, those

439
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 4: guys being at the top.

440
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 1: So great stuff. On streaming.

441
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 4: Here's your lesson on streaming, what it means, what the

442
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 4: term means, and then how to actually do it.

443
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 1: Let's go to draft slot. Let's go into draft slot.

444
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 4: I'll let you take this one first, Raybond as far

445
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,160
Speaker 4: as uh, you know ways in which draft slot can

446
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 4: matter or not matter.

447
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 1: And you kind of hit on this a second ago.

448
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,439
Speaker 4: When you're building your team, don't be tempted to go

449
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 4: to a quarterback or if you're if you missed out

450
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 4: on the stud tight ends, kicker defense, why it's okay

451
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 4: to go to a fourth receiver or your third or

452
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 4: fourth running back. That I kind of blends to the

453
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 4: next topic, which is draft position draft slot.

454
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so draft slot when I when I'm we're referring

455
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 2: to draft slot, that's where you're picking.

456
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 5: And I think some people overthink this. You know, remember

457
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 5: it average draft position is average. So you know a

458
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 5: lot of times people want to kind of plan out

459
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 5: their their draft and think they know who's gonna be there.

460
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 5: When you can you can do that at like if

461
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,399
Speaker 5: you're a number one pick, you know you should be

462
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 5: drafting Christian McCaffrey, and like you could kind of plan

463
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 5: your draft. Okay, I'm gonna draft Christian McCaffrey first, but

464
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 5: you know, after those first few picks.

465
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 2: It what what really?

466
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 5: Data wise statistically shows the earlier you pick tends to

467
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,640
Speaker 5: be better, you know, so you're you have a little

468
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 5: bit of advantage. Uh, the later you pick, I think

469
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 5: the the the advantage is then you get to kind

470
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 5: of double up on round one caliber talent, you know,

471
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 5: at the end of of round one in the start

472
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 5: of round two. But I think when it comes to

473
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 5: draft slot, just the thing to keep in mind is

474
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 5: if you're able to know, because some believes you don't

475
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 5: even know your draft slots till right before, then you

476
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 5: kind of have to prepare for different scenarios. But if

477
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 5: you do know your draft slot, the thing if you're

478
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 5: if you're near the front or the back of the draft,

479
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 5: you can kind of there's gonna be a only either

480
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 5: you're gonna be at to turn or if you're one

481
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 5: or twelve, or you know, the first the last person

482
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 5: in the round, or you're gonna be close to the edge.

483
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 2: You can kind of use that to your advantage.

484
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 5: Because you could see, you know who other people are

485
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 5: picking and kind of predict the next few players that

486
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 5: might go off the board. Like if if you're up

487
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 5: and you need a quarterback, but you know the two

488
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 5: people picking after you already have quarterbacks, then you know

489
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 5: you don't have to pick a quarterback until it comes

490
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 5: back around to you.

491
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 2: And things like that.

492
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 5: When you're in the middle of a draft, that's when

493
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 5: you're just kind of you're you're really looking to let

494
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 5: value fall to you, and that's when you know you

495
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 5: have to really be prepared for a really diverse range

496
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 5: of outcomes with each you know, with each pick, you

497
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 5: just kind of kind of be ready to kind of

498
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 5: go best player.

499
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 2: Available, best value available.

500
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 5: You know, obviously you can use our rankings and our

501
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 5: tool to kind of figure that out, but that's kind

502
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 5: of the difference between you know, the draft slot. But

503
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 5: I think the thing is just remember that you don't

504
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 5: want to have a super rigid approach and think that

505
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 5: you know exactly what's gonna happen just because you're picking

506
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 5: at a certain flat like beyond you know, the first

507
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 5: few picks of the first round, it could go in

508
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 5: a lot of different ways. So you just want to

509
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 5: kind of understand the value pockets positionally. Like, Okay, if

510
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 5: you're at the end of the round one, for example,

511
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 5: you know that the top three running backs are going

512
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 5: to be gone, and you know it's probably more of

513
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 5: a you could probably double up on receiver and you

514
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 5: might be better off getting some running backs in the

515
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 5: middle rounds. And you know there's only a few stud

516
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,160
Speaker 5: tight ends. Most of those guys go in the first

517
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 5: five rounds, and so depending on their ADPs, you can

518
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 5: kind of get a sense of which one or will

519
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 5: be available and things like that. So that's how draft

520
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 5: slot comes into play for me.

521
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 4: Set up the top of the show, we have two

522
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 4: of the Fantasy Fantasy Pro's top five most accurate rankers. Right, So,

523
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 4: I know you guys are very highly sought out people.

524
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 4: But what I'm gathering from Raybaon is this is where

525
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 4: the human element of pressure and overthinking kicks in for people.

526
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 4: So Kerner, I bring that up because consider the listener,

527
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 4: Consider the audience when they're like, holy crap, what do

528
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 4: I do?

529
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 1: I need this? But this is coming off the border.

530
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 4: I had the number one pick, I drafted McCaffrey, but

531
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 4: I'm not drafting again for another number of picks, whatever

532
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 4: the number is. In a twelve team ten team league,

533
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,439
Speaker 4: people are freaking out. Man Like, people are freaking out.

534
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 4: They want to make sure they capitalize on the pick.

535
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 4: So when you put out your rankings, how do you

536
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 4: avoid making mistakes and trying not to overthink too much

537
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 4: and stay composed.

538
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, take a deep breath, relax. You're

539
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 6: supposed to be having fun. It is fantasy football.

540
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: People want to win. People want to win.

541
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,439
Speaker 3: Oh, I want to. I agree with you want to.

542
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: Like you're good, You're really good. That's why I mentioned

543
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 1: the top five. The top five we're repeating.

544
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 6: This is where mock drafts and practicing and preparing can

545
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 6: alleviate the stress. So when it comes to draft slots,

546
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 6: if you have picks one through four, you know you

547
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 6: should have a general idea of what you're going to do,

548
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 6: which players are going to be available in the first

549
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 6: few rounds, and you know you can figure that out

550
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 6: by doing some mock drafts. Plus, if you're in a

551
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 6: lead where you're doing it online or something and there's

552
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 6: like a timer, it's very very important to start planning.

553
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 6: I would say eight picks out, you should have a

554
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 6: que setup already of players that you want to draft,

555
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 6: and don't be surprised if everybody in your league snipes

556
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 6: all those players. I would say a lot of the

557
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 6: mistakes happen with what you just laid out. When you're

558
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 6: freaking out, your cue's gone, you don't know what to do,

559
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 6: and you have one minute left on the clock. Ye

560
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 6: try to avoid that. Try it to over prepare. If

561
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 6: there's eight picks before you try to have nine players

562
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,479
Speaker 6: in the queue. Be over prepared and just you know,

563
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 6: understand that you know everybody's going to be drafting from

564
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 6: the same list, they might be gone, and just kind

565
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 6: of plan ahead. Don't let don't let it sneak up

566
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 6: on you, because that's when mistakes happened. Sorry, Raybau, what

567
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 6: was that?

568
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:47,679
Speaker 2: Oh No, I was going to add to what you

569
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 2: were saying.

570
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 5: One of the ways you can do that too is

571
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 5: most sites that you upload pre draft rankings too, so

572
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 5: you can just grab our rankings off Fantasy Labs and

573
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 5: like update and upload that. So then even if you

574
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 5: do time out or you do freak out, at least

575
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 5: you're gonna have like the you know, you're not just

576
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 5: drafting based on the site ADP, which is usually not

577
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 5: It's never as sharp as you know it's gonna be

578
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 5: as sharp at some rankings that you know you're actually trust.

579
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 5: And then another thing Sean and you and I always

580
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 5: talk about this is when you're in the first few rounds,

581
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 5: you can't win your draft in the first few rounds.

582
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 5: You cannot win your draft in the first few rounds.

583
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 5: Get it through your head over and over again. You

584
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 5: cannot win your draft in the first few rounds, but

585
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 5: you can definitely lose it.

586
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 2: So don't obsess over the first you know, four or

587
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: five rounds of the draft, because that's.

588
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 5: When there's there's gonna be very a lower range of

589
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 5: outcomes for each player. They're all gonna be pretty good players,

590
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 5: they're all gonna be studs. So the only thing you

591
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 5: really want to avoid in those first you know, four

592
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 5: or five rounds is taking guys with that are very

593
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 5: high risks because everyone's gonna have a high ceiling, but

594
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 5: some guys will have a you know, a lower floor

595
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 5: than others. You know, like, for example, you have guys like, uh,

596
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 5: maybe a Derrick Henry.

597
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 2: Who's he's you know who's he's great, but he's he's

598
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 2: he's thirty years old.

599
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 5: Now you know that that's for a running back that's

600
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 5: pretty old. That's a little lower floor. So you know,

601
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 5: when if it's when I'm up and I'm choosing between

602
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 5: Henry and a and a receiver, I'm gonna go receiver

603
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 5: more often than not, just because you know the floor

604
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 5: is is gonna I could lose my my draft that way,

605
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 5: and Henry might not even be the best example, because

606
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,719
Speaker 5: I think he'll be okay in Baltimore or I think

607
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 5: he'll be fine. But you know, there are guys every

608
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,919
Speaker 5: year who kind of stick out like a sore thumb,

609
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 5: you know, and those are the guys like if you

610
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 5: feel uncertainty about him, just avoid him because you just

611
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 5: want to take high floor guys in the first three rounds.

612
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 2: But just don't. You don't, like, there's only so many.

613
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 5: Ways that those first three rounds are gonna go, and

614
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 5: you're gonna get you know, four to five really good

615
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 5: players either way. So when you're preparing for your draft

616
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 5: and what you really need to focus on and and

617
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,160
Speaker 5: and kind of analyze it if you're gonna put any

618
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 5: time into it is the middle to late rounds.

619
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 2: That's where drafts are won.

620
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 5: You know, there's's only gonna be so many ways you

621
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 5: can There's only so many stud tight ends in the

622
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 5: first five rounds. There's only a couple of quarterbacks, and

623
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 5: you know, even this year there's.

624
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 2: Not even that many.

625
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 5: There's only like twelve to thirteen running backs going in

626
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 5: the first five rounds in a lot of drafts these days,

627
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 5: so you kind of know what you're gonna be dealing with,

628
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 5: and it's those middle rounds where you're gonna you're gonna

629
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 5: make your hay, and those late rounds where if you

630
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 5: could pick up, you know, a diamond in the rough

631
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 5: or two, that's where you want to take your risks in.

632
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: The later you get in the draft, the more risk

633
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 2: you want to take.

634
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast Everybody is brought to you by

635
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 4: bet MGM used the Bonus Code Action when signing up

636
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637
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Speaker 4: bets if your first bet does not win.

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Speaker 1: For new users in Arizona.

639
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:50,959
Speaker 4: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey,

640
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 4: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming,

641
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 4: terms and conditions apply. It must be twenty one plus

642
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 4: gambling problem called one eight hundred. We're building a glossary

643
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 4: during this podcast, so we'll dive into raybond Tea's the

644
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 4: word the word floor, So we'll dive into ceiling, floor

645
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 4: and volatility in a minute in terms of what those

646
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 4: words mean and why they are important to know.

647
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: You will be quizzed after the show.

648
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 4: But let's wrap on this section of draft draft position

649
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 4: or draft slought, I should say Raybond and why tiering

650
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 4: is important. What when you dive into tiering and then

651
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 4: the specific tier that you wanted to touch on the

652
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 4: frozen pond tier.

653
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, Sean is the Tears guy, like this is this

654
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 5: is what he's known for, so hears got to get

655
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 5: Sean's tears.

656
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 6: Tiers are my things. So just in general, when it

657
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 6: comes to tiers, you know there's clusters at each position

658
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 6: where for example, this year I have wide receiver seventeen

659
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 6: to wide receiver twenty seven. I have them separated by

660
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 6: just a few points, so I consider them all very

661
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 6: close in terms of value. So the ideas of drafting

662
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 6: from tiers is, you know, why draft someone from the

663
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 6: top of that cluster of you eleven receivers when you

664
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 6: could get a guy one to maybe three rounds later

665
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 6: that I only have a couple points off.

666
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 3: So that's kind of how I view tiers.

667
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 6: Typically, I don't want to be drafting a guy at

668
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 6: a top of a a tier knowing I can get

669
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 6: a guy with similar value a few rounds later, Whereas

670
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 6: if there's just one player left from that tier, there's

671
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 6: in theory, there's going to be a pretty big drop

672
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 6: off from him to the next receiver or next handful

673
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 6: of receivers. So I'm usually looking at every position seeing

674
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 6: how many players are left in a given tier and

675
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 6: kind of use that as a rough guide to to

676
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 6: you know, who I'm drafting. But when it comes to

677
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 6: the frozen pond tier, that's the tier I talk about

678
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 6: in running backs where you know their their rank might

679
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 6: match up my projections. But when it comes to running

680
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 6: backs in general, I mentioned this earlier in the pod.

681
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 6: They're the most fragile position. You know, they're the usually

682
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 6: the smaller player in the field, taking the most hits.

683
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 3: So unfortunately they're the most injured player.

684
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 6: And you know Raybaugh mentioned earlier, usually there's one running

685
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 6: back that's the starter taking the most you know, touches

686
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 6: in a backfield, but that could flip, you know, you

687
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 6: could have a guy lose his job, things like that.

688
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: So it's very volatile.

689
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 6: So usually every year there's it changes every year, but

690
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 6: you know, running backs ten through thirty is where you're

691
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 6: gonna have some running backs where they're ranked appropriately. You know,

692
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 6: that's where I have them ranked going into the season,

693
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 6: but there's some red flags where their floor is you know,

694
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 6: a lot lower than you'd want based on you know,

695
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 6: their injury history. Maybe they ended the last season really good,

696
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 6: so we're kind of over hyping up, but then they

697
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 6: regress the next year, or they have you know, a

698
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 6: touchdown agression, or they have a very good backup, and

699
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 6: they could lose their job. And I guess an example

700
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 6: would be Cam Akers. Last year was the RB twenty two,

701
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 6: and he had finished the season before he was like

702
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 6: the number two running back over the last six games,

703
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 6: so it's like, yeah, like he's the Rams starting back

704
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 6: heading in this year. So my projections lined up with

705
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 6: the out running back twenty two. But just given you

706
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 6: know how Sean McVay can be fickle with his running

707
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 6: backs year to year, Kyra Williams sure enough ended up being,

708
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 6: you know, the starting running back, the workhorse back. So

709
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 6: Cam Akers ended up being a bust. But he's he's

710
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 6: an example of a type.

711
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 3: Of back and.

712
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 1: We had, Yeah Williams.

713
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 6: Kyra Williams might actually fit the bill being a frozen

714
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 6: upon type of running back, just based on Sean mcvay's history,

715
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 6: based on Blake Kor, I'm being drafted and he's his backup.

716
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 6: So that's just an example of when it comes to

717
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 6: running backs specifically in that range, I'm always very careful

718
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 6: and I have to ask myself, like do they have

719
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 6: enough red flags where it's it's worth waiting and drafting

720
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 6: and running back later. So each position, you know, I

721
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 6: think every tier represents something else based on you know,

722
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 6: upside their floor.

723
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 3: So when I write my.

724
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 6: Tears articles, I'm going through very thoroughly how I'm kind

725
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 6: of thinking about each tier at each position.

726
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 4: When Rybon that speaks to your point why you don't

727
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 4: win a draft after your first three picks, right, because

728
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 4: then it just if you try to if you try

729
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 4: to lock in uh a rigid early round strategy like

730
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 4: in your your toast.

731
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's something I think these days, you know, we

732
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 5: hear a lot zero running back. Really it's the running

733
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 5: back strategies because those kind of define you know, what

734
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 5: you're gonna do at other positions. So you know, there's

735
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 5: zero running back, which is you're gonna wait and not

736
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 5: draft running backs until you know, maybe the sixth round

737
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 5: or so. There's there's hero running back where you draft

738
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 5: one running back early and then kind of do a

739
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 5: zero running back strategy for all your other running backs.

740
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 5: And then there's you know, robust running back or whatever

741
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 5: you want to call it, where you kind of go

742
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 5: running back heavy. That was the old school. You know,

743
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 5: draft two running backs with your first two picks. I

744
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,959
Speaker 5: think you know you have to. You can use your

745
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 5: draft slot to kind of say, okay, base, you know,

746
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 5: I'm early in the draft. So this is where the

747
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 5: val the value is based on tiers. But to Seawn's

748
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 5: point about tears, the other thing with tiers is it

749
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 5: kind of helps with your overall ranks because that's a

750
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 5: lot of times where I think people trip up is

751
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 5: like should I draft the running back or wide receiver here?

752
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 2: Should I go for this stud tight end?

753
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 5: And so a lot of times it's like, okay, you know,

754
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 5: for example, this year, I think, you know, it's McCaffrey's

755
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 5: in a tier of his zone. Then you have, you know,

756
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 5: the top tier of wide receivers. Then you have that

757
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 5: second tier of running backs with you know, Britise Hall

758
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,839
Speaker 5: and and Bjon Robinson, and then you have another tier

759
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 5: of wide receivers, and you know, to Shawn's point, with

760
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 5: the frozen pond tier, maybe you're your tier of well

761
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 5: wide receivers up from seventeen to twenty seven. You're you're

762
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:40,320
Speaker 5: still valuing that tier ahead of the frozen pond tier

763
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 5: with running back ten to thirty, you know, and and

764
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 5: all of those tiers in between, you know, the the

765
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 5: sub tiers of that. So that's really it's really important

766
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 5: and generally, and then you have you know, a couple

767
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 5: of stud tight ends in their tier, and you know,

768
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 5: I would kind of put those guys, you know, somewhere

769
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 5: in you know, in the second to third round. And

770
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 5: if those guys are gone, okay, you're gonna keep hitting receiver.

771
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 5: But the thing is, you don't want to get caught

772
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,479
Speaker 5: up in these rigid strategies as much as just knowing

773
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 5: how to use each of them, because there's gonna be

774
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 5: times when your draft starts and everyone wants wide receivers

775
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 5: and so you might get you know, maybe Breese Hall

776
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 5: and Bejon Robinson fall to you know, pick like eleven

777
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 5: and twelve or something like that, and then you know

778
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 5: you should be attacking those guys because you're getting value there.

779
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 5: But you know, if people are going more traditional a

780
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 5: lot of running backs early, you should probably be hammering

781
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 5: wide receiver, you should probably be trying to get that

782
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 5: stud tight end. So you know, our rankings will kind

783
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 5: of be you know, for for this individual year will

784
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 5: give you more kind of direction as to what to

785
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 5: do exactly.

786
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,479
Speaker 2: But that's something you just got to kind of think about.

787
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 5: If you're just going into the draft with a ridgid strategy,

788
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 5: that's where you're gonna run into trouble. You should just

789
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 5: know how to use each strategy and say, Okay, if

790
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 5: I start wide receiver heavy, these are the running backs

791
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 5: I like in the middle rounds. You know, if I

792
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 5: start running back heavy, these are the wide receivers I

793
00:35:58,239 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 5: like it in the middle rounds. Maybe this is a

794
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 5: guy who's kind of on that cusp of like uh

795
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 5: uh uh, you know, has wide receiver one upside that

796
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 5: I'm gonna target. You know, guys like uh a Jackson

797
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 5: Smith's jig, but maybe you think he's gonna break out

798
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 5: in year two, a Deontay Johnson. Maybe you think he's

799
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 5: gonna you know, turn into that that number one option

800
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 5: for Bryce Young guys like that.

801
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 2: If you're drafted running backs early, you have to be

802
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: aware of that.

803
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 5: So you have to kind of just be aware of

804
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 5: how to use each strategy, but and you could kind

805
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 5: of go into the draft saying, Okay, based on my

806
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 5: draft spot, this might be the strategy that works best.

807
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 5: But be prepared to use any of those strategies. They

808
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 5: all can work. It still comes down to you know,

809
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 5: drafting the right players and constructing your team right, you know,

810
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:36,919
Speaker 5: in the middle rounds based on how you.

811
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 1: Started falling under the umbrella.

812
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 4: And again you can find Sean and Chris's rankings over

813
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 4: at a fantasy labs dot com. So falling under the

814
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 4: umbrella of rankings are some some terms that we want

815
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 4: to discuss at length and what these terms mean and

816
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 4: then then, knowing what they mean, how to apply them.

817
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 4: So the four the four terms that we're gonna discuss

818
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 4: here are ceiling, floor, volatility, and then the range of outcomes.

819
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:04,439
Speaker 1: So let you each take too.

820
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 3: They're kind of all the same.

821
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, So yeah, I mean, sehn, you can actually go

822
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,280
Speaker 5: ahead with like I was talking a long time the last.

823
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 6: Yeah, so these are these kind of mean the same thing. Uh,

824
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 6: you know, volatility and range of outcomes is just what

825
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 6: we're expecting from the player, Like when Chris and I

826
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 6: make projections for say like Cooper cup for one two

827
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 6: hundred yards, It doesn't mean that we expect them they

828
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,479
Speaker 6: get exactly one thousand, two hundred yards. There's a range

829
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 6: of outcomes, so we're we're thinking every player has their

830
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 6: own unique range of outcomes, and when it comes to

831
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 6: floor and ceiling, I would say ceiling would be their

832
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 6: you know, best case scenario range of outcomes, whereas the

833
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 6: floor is going to be the worst case scenario of

834
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 6: the range of outcomes. And you know, oftentimes this just

835
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 6: has to do with, you know, what we know about

836
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 6: the player. You know, someone like he and that's played

837
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 6: you know, eight straight seasons getting you know, the same

838
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 6: stat line. We kind of know who he is at

839
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 6: this point, so he has a narrower range of outcomes,

840
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 6: whereas you know, Marvin Harrison Junior, we haven't seen him

841
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 6: play yet, we know he's going to be great, but

842
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,280
Speaker 6: he has, you know, wider range of outcomes than somebody

843
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 6: that we've you know, seen for years in the league.

844
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 6: But also when it comes to their floor and ceiling.

845
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 6: Sometimes you know, when it comes to their floor, I

846
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 6: would say, every player's floor is then getting injured and

847
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 6: missing a ton of time or the entire season. But

848
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 6: it's also you know, I think there's a complex range

849
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 6: outcomes when it comes to their own teammates helf. So

850
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 6: an example would be Garrett Wilson last year was expected

851
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 6: to be a top ten wide receiver with Aaron Rodgers,

852
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 6: but Aaron Rodgers got hurt on the first drive of

853
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 6: the game and Garrett Wilson ended up being the wide

854
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 6: receiver thirty one. So you could say he finished closer

855
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 6: to his floor, but that wasn't necessarily his fault.

856
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:57,359
Speaker 3: That was his quarterback play.

857
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 6: So that's why you see him back up to being

858
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 6: a top ten wide receivers. So I think it's understanding

859
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 6: also based on previous games, you know, where does that

860
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 6: fall in their range, dot coomes and things like that.

861
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 6: And on the other side, when it comes to like

862
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 6: running backs, I talk about this in my running back

863
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 6: upside chart.

864
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:16,879
Speaker 3: I think of every running back in.

865
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 6: Terms of their ceiling based on you know, their talent

866
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 6: level obviously, and if they're they're able to command more

867
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 6: touches or be more efficient than we expected heading in

868
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 6: the season. But it's also if their teammate, the starting

869
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 6: running back, were to get injured, so someone like Opportunity,

870
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 6: yeah Zame or.

871
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: White last year last four games exactly season.

872
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 6: Right, and yeah, in those and that that is more predictive,

873
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 6: and I think people give credit for so going into

874
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 6: the season, you know Blake Korm, we mentioned him earlier.

875
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 6: He's the rookie running back for the Rams. He's likely

876
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 6: going to back up Kyle Williams. Heading into the season,

877
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 6: we know that. But if Kyle Williams suffers a season

878
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 6: ending injury and say Week one, you know Korm would

879
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 6: likely take over as the starting running back put up

880
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 6: top ten numbers, So I consider that of his ceiling

881
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 6: and knowing that in the later rounds, I kind of

882
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 6: map out which running backs have the highest ceiling based

883
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 6: on the opportunity, if you know, the starting backward at

884
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 6: miss time, starting running back or to miss time. So

885
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 6: that's part of their ceiling projection for me is just

886
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 6: their teammates health as well. So that's why with each player,

887
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 6: each position, there's a different range of outcomes that we

888
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 6: talk about. That's it's really hard to convey in our

889
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 6: just medium projections in our rankings. So that's why when

890
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 6: we talk about floor ceiling, we're really talking about these

891
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 6: extra cases for each player and how their range of

892
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 6: outcomes could be different compared to other players in their

893
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 6: position and sometimes why we would draft them or not

894
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 6: draft them ahead of other players.

895
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 5: And to add on to that, there's also an element

896
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 5: when you talk about floor and ceiling of just the

897
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 5: type of player they are. So, for example, running backs

898
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 5: that play all three downs have higher floors than running

899
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 5: backs like that that might come off the feet field

900
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 5: on third down, yeah, seed.

901
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 1: Red zone, right goal line stuff, right right.

902
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, these days, it's more guys that come, like, for example,

903
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 5: to go and not to pick on Derrick Henry, but

904
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 5: even even though they you know he's gonna he's gonna

905
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 5: getting a ton of carries for Baltimore, he might be

906
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 5: off the field on on on passing downs, hurry up

907
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 5: situations and uh in third downs even you know, guys

908
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 5: like a guy like Justice Hill probably plays a significant

909
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 5: amount of stats.

910
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 2: So that's something that's think about.

911
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 4: To mention, his quarterback is also very capable right himself exactly.

912
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 4: So and then whatever quarterback is like that, I realized that, right, right,

913
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 4: And so in Tennessee, right, he doesn't have her jackson

914
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 4: in Tennessee, very different circumstances.

915
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 5: Exactly, And so you think about that with like a

916
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 5: guy like James Cook and you know Josh Allen, even

917
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 5: a guy like Sakon Bark with Jalen Hurts. But and

918
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 5: then there's also UH for wide receivers, there's the type

919
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 5: of targets you're getting. So think of a guy like

920
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 5: Gabriel Davis who the main he gets a lot of

921
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 5: high leverage fantasy targets, deep targets, red zone targets. But

922
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 5: when you're in a redraft league where you have to

923
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 5: set your lineup each week, so not a besketball league,

924
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 5: that might not be ideal because you don't know which

925
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 5: weeks is gonna go off. You know, those those kind

926
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 5: of targets are are volatile. So and especially because most

927
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,720
Speaker 5: weeks are at least half point PPR, if not full point.

928
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,800
Speaker 5: The guys that get a lot of targets and get

929
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 5: you know, intermedt short to intermediate intermediate is really kind

930
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 5: of the ideal kind of targets. Those are the guys

931
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 5: that are gonna tend to be the most you know,

932
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 5: UH have the higher floors for wide receivers than guys

933
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 5: who are gonna run a lot of low percentage routes

934
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 5: deeper down the field. You know, those guys are gonna

935
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 5: have high ceilings, but you know FLOORA, and you're not

936
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 5: gonna always be able to predict them. So and in redraft,

937
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,800
Speaker 5: a lot of times when you're setting that starting lineup,

938
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 5: you're gonna want floor. So that's why early in the

939
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 5: draft you definitely don't want guys with low floor. But

940
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 5: as the season progresses, I mean, as the draft progresses,

941
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 5: you can start targeting guys with the high ceilings because

942
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 5: you're not gonna really find anymore high floor guys. So

943
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 5: that's why, you know, for example, targeting rookie wide receivers

944
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 5: that not even just the type of targets they're getting,

945
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 5: but also their path. You know, Sean talked about it

946
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 5: with running back, their path to a starting role with

947
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:18,320
Speaker 5: wide receivers, it's their path to being a number one target.

948
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 2: So a guy like.

949
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 5: Let's say Troy flank Franklin in Denver, rookie wide receiver

950
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 5: played with Bo Nicks. But you know Courtland Sutton's probably

951
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 5: on the lower end of you know, number one wide receivers,

952
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 5: and there's it's kind of wide open behind him, so

953
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 5: you say, okay, Franklin has an outside shot at being

954
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:34,919
Speaker 5: a number one or at least the number two.

955
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,280
Speaker 2: Same thing with a guy like Kean Coleman in Buffalo.

956
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 5: You know, he's battling Chilo Secure, Curtis Samuel and Matt Collins.

957
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 5: You know at wide receiver. He could be their number

958
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 5: one wide receiver, you could, you know. And to give

959
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 5: examples of when this has worked, think of you know,

960
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 5: a few years ago Terry McLaurin when he was coming

961
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 5: into the league, and you know, Washington, I think had

962
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 5: other like Telvin Harmon and some other guys you know,

963
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 5: like ahead of him, and it was like, no, it

964
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 5: was it ended up being Marki's Brown.

965
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 2: Mark, He's Brown. With the Ravens, you know, there's uh

966
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 2: a J. Brown.

967
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 5: Even with Tennessee that that rookie year, you know, there's

968
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 5: there's always gonna be those kind of guys that because

969
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,800
Speaker 5: the wide receiver or the pass catching corpse is weaker,

970
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 5: they're gonna have these shots. And I think that those

971
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 5: guys wait in the draft are better than a guy

972
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 5: like Tyler Board for example, who might you know, his

973
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 5: medium projection might be a few more targets as that

974
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:31,240
Speaker 5: you know, locked in slot receiver in Tennessee. But he's

975
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 5: you know, even with even if DeAndre Hopkins misses more

976
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 5: time and like Calvin Ridley, Uh, like Calvin, He's still

977
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 5: Calvin Ridley is there. DeAndre Hopkins is not gonna miss

978
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 5: the whole season probably, you know, Uh, treyman Bergler is

979
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 5: a talented.

980
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 2: Guy who could challenge boy. Yeah, so you got it.

981
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 5: That's how you also have to think about ceiling and floor,

982
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 5: and that's why you want to target in the first

983
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 5: few rounds. That's why it's all about floor because everyone

984
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 5: has a high ceiling. As the draft progresses, almost everyone

985
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 5: has a low floor. That's when you target these high

986
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 5: ceiling guys.

987
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 4: Do you want to spend a second on best ball

988
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 4: of our season long because I know we had that

989
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 4: in our notes as well, to dive into those strategy Sean, Yeah, I.

990
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 6: Think that's an important topic and it kind of does

991
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 6: stem from our floor ceiling discussion. So let's start off

992
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 6: with season long leagues. You know, in season long leagues,

993
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 6: it's typically a head to head league where every week

994
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,320
Speaker 6: you're playing one other team. You only need to score

995
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 6: more points than one other team. So in general, you're

996
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 6: going to want higher floor guys. I mean, you still

997
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 6: want to shoot for guys with upside and a high ceiling,

998
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 6: but in season formats, floor is more valuable because again,

999
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 6: you only need to be one team a week, so

1000
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 6: if you're finishing in the top fifty percentile and points

1001
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 6: that week, you're more likely to win your matchup. So

1002
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 6: that's the format where I tend to go safer shoot

1003
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 6: for floor. But when it comes to best ball, it's

1004
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 6: all about upside and ceiling, So you're going to be

1005
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 6: a little bit more aggressive and go for guys with

1006
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,800
Speaker 6: more upside side, you know, a higher ceiling.

1007
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 3: Maybe they're more boom bust every week.

1008
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 6: And the theory is you're essentially playing the rest of

1009
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 6: your league, so you need a really big score to

1010
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 6: actually take down the league. And that's why you want

1011
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 6: to implement other aggressive strategies like stacking, So taking a

1012
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 6: quarterback with a couple pass catchers or a few pass

1013
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 6: catchers from that offense, because they're very correlated. So you know,

1014
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,719
Speaker 6: a quarterback has a really good season, it's very likely

1015
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 6: the other pass catchers exceeded expectations as well. So that's

1016
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 6: another way how you're just kind of elevating your team

1017
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 6: ceiling as a whole and more likely to take down

1018
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 6: you know, all other eleven teammates in your league. So

1019
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 6: that's kind of how I think about it is, you know,

1020
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,879
Speaker 6: season long head to head formats, you want to hire

1021
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,280
Speaker 6: a floor, whereas best ball, you're shooting for a higher

1022
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 6: ceiling when it comes to your team's construction.

1023
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 5: And to add to that, I think a good way

1024
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 5: to think about it, or a good way to contract

1025
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 5: the strategies is in a season of long league where

1026
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 5: you want your high floor. If you draft a running back,

1027
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 5: you know, especially your your your your RB one, your

1028
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 5: first you know, your top running back, uh, you may

1029
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 5: want to draft his backup later in the draft, especially

1030
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 5: if he's you know, cheap, if he's not, you know,

1031
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 5: if he doesn't take like another you know, premium mid

1032
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 5: round pick, and to get his handcuffed. So that if

1033
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 5: that running like if you draft the Kien Williams, maybe

1034
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 5: you want to draft the Blake Korum, you know, and

1035
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 5: kind of cover your your bases. But in bastball, you

1036
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 5: never want to draft two running backs on the same

1037
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:35,800
Speaker 5: team because you're you're looking you want that uh, top

1038
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 5: ceiling outcome for Kien Williams, which means he holds that

1039
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 5: job all year. You know, he does the same thing

1040
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 5: he did last year, he plays even more games than

1041
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 5: he did last year, and Korum is a non factor.

1042
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 5: You know, that's how you want to kind of think

1043
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 5: about it in in in redraft regular season long uh,

1044
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:53,799
Speaker 5: your your your your, you're handcuffing or you're at least

1045
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 5: thinking about it, whereas in bastball that's completely off the

1046
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 5: table because you want every one of your guys to

1047
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 5: have that you know, high highest ceiling outcome available to you.

1048
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 2: So you know, take it.

1049
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 5: Two guys on the same team, you're just cannibalizing your upside.

1050
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:08,439
Speaker 5: Two guys, two running backs on the same team.

1051
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 2: That is.

1052
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 4: How about let's talk about Bus avoiding Bush because that

1053
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 4: annoys people, It frustrates people, and typically I think you'd

1054
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:18,720
Speaker 4: find out once the season starts.

1055
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: Maybe it takes a little bit longer than others.

1056
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 4: You guys can tell me when we discuss this about

1057
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 4: what actually defines a bust. But for the purposes of

1058
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 4: this podcast, it's it's the experts Guides.

1059
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 1: To Fantasy Football and draft.

1060
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 4: We're talking about drafting Hunt it right, about avoiding Bus?

1061
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 1: What's the what are some keys to that?

1062
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,240
Speaker 2: Each position is gonna kind of have it. It's different.

1063
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 5: So the first thing is a bus to me, is

1064
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 5: a player you draft in the premium rounds, like in

1065
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 5: the first five rounds that you know doesn't even either

1066
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:54,240
Speaker 5: finishes as a low end starter or not not even startable.

1067
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 5: And then you know, going from there, anyone you draft

1068
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 5: as a starter that that doesn't that's not started by

1069
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 5: I think would be considered us. So a couple of

1070
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 5: things you could do to avoid those guys, you know,

1071
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 5: I already mentioned, you know, just looking for guys with

1072
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 5: high floors and some of these things you can avoid.

1073
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,399
Speaker 5: But uh, at running back, I did a piece where

1074
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 5: I looked at running backs that change teams in the offseason.

1075
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:18,879
Speaker 5: Those guys tend to underperform ADP a lot more than

1076
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 5: guys who stayed on the same team. Older running backs,

1077
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 5: older players period, at any position, but especially running back.

1078
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 5: You know, anyone after twenty seven is when they peak.

1079
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 5: Wide receivers, you know, in their anyone you know after

1080
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,879
Speaker 5: they're you know, thirty one thirty two, and you start

1081
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:39,479
Speaker 5: to see a steeper decline tight end, same thing, maybe

1082
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 5: a little older for tight end, but age is something

1083
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:44,879
Speaker 5: you always want to look for.

1084
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 2: For running backs.

1085
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 5: And another offensive line U teams that just bad quarterback play,

1086
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 5: which you mentioned lash for for pass catchers and just

1087
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 5: generally anything that's new, like it makes it.

1088
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 2: Harder to project. So even a guy like you know,

1089
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 2: we talked about.

1090
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 4: Keen so never mind, go ahead, Well when you say new,

1091
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 4: I was I thought you were gonna go to rookies,

1092
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,720
Speaker 4: but Keenan Allen being in Chicago now with the news, Yeah.

1093
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 2: Rookies are different. So rookies generally are going later.

1094
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 5: So it's you know, it's it's uh, they're usually more

1095
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,799
Speaker 5: like they're they're not gonna bust as much, just because

1096
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 5: they're not going as high as steel like even a

1097
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 5: guy like a Keenan Allen, Yes, he's been ultra consistent,

1098
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,839
Speaker 5: but he's got a new quarterback who's a rookie by

1099
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 5: the way, and you know he's on a team with

1100
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 5: two other like receivers that are probably the most talented

1101
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 5: receivers he's played with no respect to Mike Williams. So

1102
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 5: even a guy like him, there's a little bit of

1103
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 5: bust potential that there wasn't in these last you know,

1104
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 5: in the other.

1105
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 2: Eight years or whatever of his career.

1106
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 5: So but but I say, i'd say the big things

1107
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 5: are running backs on new teams older running backs, uh

1108
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 5: running backs with with with with teams with bad offensive lines,

1109
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 5: or just teams that are expected to not score a

1110
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 5: lot of points and then pass catchers with bad quarterbacks

1111
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 5: or like if you're especially because like you for a

1112
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,799
Speaker 5: number one receiver, you know those studs, they're locked in,

1113
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:06,879
Speaker 5: but when you start getting into you know those wide

1114
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 5: receivers outside that top thirty or so, a lot of

1115
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 5: times those are going to be the second wide receiver

1116
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 5: on a team. And it's like a guy like a

1117
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 5: Tyler Lockett, he could get overtaken by a guy like

1118
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 5: Jackson Smith and the jigbook this year, so you know,

1119
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:23,320
Speaker 5: looking at looking at the threats and of the unknown.

1120
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 5: So like you know, mentioned guys like Terry mclaur and

1121
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 5: AJ Brown a few years ago. You know whoever the

1122
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 5: guys were in front of them. I'm sure somebody on

1123
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 5: those teams were drafted as like a number as their

1124
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:34,359
Speaker 5: team's number.

1125
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 2: Expect the number one receiver.

1126
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 5: But if you have a you know guys who are

1127
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 5: under them, rookies with the unknown, who could just come

1128
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 5: in and outplay them. Elijah Moore comes to mind a

1129
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,280
Speaker 5: couple of years ago when they judge drafted Garrett Wilson.

1130
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 5: Elijah Moore, everyone you know, was so excited for him

1131
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 5: to draft him because he had a really good end

1132
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 5: to the season before. But you know, Garrett Wilson just

1133
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 5: kind of blew him out of the water, and you know,

1134
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 5: you know more also, you know, didn't play well. But

1135
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 5: you know, if you kind of looked at said, wow,

1136
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 5: this team's been a high draft pick on a wide receiver,

1137
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 5: maybe this guy's not as safe, you know. And also

1138
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:08,279
Speaker 5: Zach Wilson was a quarterback I think at the time,

1139
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:10,399
Speaker 5: So you know, looking at things like that as are

1140
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 5: some of the ways you can avoid bust.

1141
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 2: And track record too.

1142
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 5: You know, if I only had one season of production,

1143
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 5: especially if it was kind of out of the balloon,

1144
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 5: it wasn't his first season, you always want to kind

1145
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 5: of make sure that that's repeatable and the circumstances and

1146
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 5: the environment is the same or similar before you invest

1147
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 5: a high pick. If it's weight, then then you're not

1148
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:35,280
Speaker 5: worried about bus because then you're just just going for upside.

1149
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:37,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Sean, I think this is something that you

1150
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 4: factor in quite a bit when you do your preseason

1151
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 4: NFL betting, which is we're in the season tis the

1152
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 4: season to that, paying attention to coaching decisions too, like

1153
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:48,400
Speaker 4: press conferences during the week. If the guys in the

1154
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 4: dog I mean that speaks for all of this that

1155
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,880
Speaker 4: we're talking about. But maybe with BUS too, like if

1156
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 4: you find out if a guy's in the doghouse it's

1157
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 4: a contract dispute or something along those lines too. Anything

1158
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 4: to add Sean on BUS before we move on.

1159
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 3: No, I agree.

1160
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 6: I just think for me, just in general, I consider

1161
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 6: BUS our players that they're likely they're they're ADP is

1162
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 6: closer to where I think their ceiling is, like their

1163
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:16,280
Speaker 6: best case outcome would be. So that's in general. Raybon

1164
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 6: hit the nail on the head, you know, position by position.

1165
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 6: But for me, if a player, if their ADP is

1166
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 6: closer to where I consider their ceiling, I consider them

1167
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:28,279
Speaker 6: a potential bust. But again I'm guilty of it.

1168
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 3: Every year.

1169
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 6: You know I'm gonna draft some bust on my team.

1170
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 6: It's unavoidable, really right to get get a perfect draft.

1171
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 6: But I think that Raybon laid out some really good

1172
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 6: points on the general things that might lead to a BUS.

1173
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:41,360
Speaker 6: But again this goes back to where I was thinking.

1174
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 6: I consider every player on a range of outcomes, and

1175
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 6: if their ADP is closer to their ceiling, that's sort

1176
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:48,320
Speaker 6: of a red flag for me.

1177
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 3: When it comes to bus oh, one.

1178
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:50,879
Speaker 2: More, one more thing.

1179
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 5: Guys that are injured heading into the year, that's a

1180
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,880
Speaker 5: red flag. You know, like if they're just struggling with

1181
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 5: nagging injuries in a preseason, maybe they even like might

1182
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:01,879
Speaker 5: miss week one or two.

1183
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 1: If DeAndre Hopkins, t J. Howkinson, those are some big.

1184
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, guys like that.

1185
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, So what ends up happening a lot of those

1186
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 5: guys is is, Yeah, people drafters tend to overvalue those guys.

1187
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,359
Speaker 5: Specifically the guys that are we already know they're probably

1188
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:19,759
Speaker 5: gonna miss games to start the year.

1189
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 2: They tend to be drafted too high. I remember, you

1190
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:23,919
Speaker 2: know Jamis and Williams is a guy like that.

1191
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:27,360
Speaker 5: It could be a suspension even but people generally just

1192
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 5: don't rate those players correctly because you know, it's it

1193
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,479
Speaker 5: comes down to now you have to project the exact

1194
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 5: amount of games and you know, reconcile that with the

1195
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:37,960
Speaker 5: you know, who else is on the team and what

1196
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 5: they're gonna do.

1197
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 2: So it's a tough projection.

1198
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 5: And so I noticed that average draft position tends to

1199
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 5: overrate the market tends to overrate those kind of players,

1200
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 5: but just anyone that's kind of struggling, especially if they're

1201
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:50,479
Speaker 5: not a stud and you know, the teams are drawing

1202
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:52,400
Speaker 5: up plays for them, like if it's a teams like

1203
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,439
Speaker 5: number two wide receiver, like.

1204
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 2: Like to go back to like Seattle.

1205
00:54:56,560 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 5: You know, if if like Tyra Lockett is injured, you know,

1206
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 5: banged up all preseason coming into the year, you know,

1207
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 5: I would worry about him a lot more than if

1208
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 5: he was completely healthy, you know, because I you know,

1209
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 5: dk Metcal is still gonna be that that number one

1210
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:09,919
Speaker 5: guy there.

1211
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 2: You know, guys like that. Once you get to.

1212
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 5: Those mid middle round guys, a lot of times, you know,

1213
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 5: if they're if they're struggling with injuries, you know, it's

1214
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 5: it can be a big red flag. But especially the

1215
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 5: guys who you know are gonna miss games, they're gonna

1216
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 5: start the year on the pup, they're gonna you know,

1217
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,480
Speaker 5: they're gonna whatever the case might be. Those guys tend

1218
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 5: to always be overdrafted because people are like, oh, I'll

1219
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 5: just stash them or whatever or not.

1220
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 2: But why not just look for a guy who can

1221
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 2: get you.

1222
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 5: Seventeen weeks of upside instead of trying to stash a guy,

1223
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 5: Because a lot of times when you're already injured heading

1224
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 5: into the year, or you're gonna miss time, you're at

1225
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 5: a higher risk of re injury and you might not

1226
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 5: be one hundred percent when you come back. So every

1227
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 5: once in a while you'll you'll hit on those But

1228
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:52,840
Speaker 5: if you're a good enough drafter, and if you're following

1229
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 5: us in checking out our rankings, you should be, you're

1230
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 5: gonna be able to just find alternative to those guys.

1231
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 5: So that that's another thing that I think is important

1232
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:02,839
Speaker 5: to keep him Ony good.

1233
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: To call out.

1234
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, because I know we talked about one thing when

1235
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 4: an injury pops up out of nowhere, and we talked

1236
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 4: about streaming, but having a known injury going into a season,

1237
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 4: that is a something we didn't spend a lot of

1238
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:13,840
Speaker 4: time on.

1239
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 1: So that's a good call out by Raybon.

1240
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 2: Before we go on.

1241
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 5: One thing we do want to touch on with drafting

1242
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 5: is and Sean can speak to this, is how to

1243
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 5: use our rankings or anybody think how to use them

1244
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 5: in a draft because and Sean can elaborate on this,

1245
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 5: but basically just because we have a guy ranked RB ten,

1246
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 5: doesn't mean you should take him as a tenth running

1247
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:43,880
Speaker 5: back off the board if his average draft position is

1248
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:45,440
Speaker 5: let's say, yeah, RB twenty.

1249
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 2: So Sean, you could you could speak more to that.

1250
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:48,479
Speaker 3: Uh yeah.

1251
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 6: So like when when we're using our rankings, like Raybond said,

1252
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:55,399
Speaker 6: if we have a guy ranked RB town, let's say

1253
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 6: and he's typically being drafted, say RB twenty, we're that

1254
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 6: far off from a consensus.

1255
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,000
Speaker 3: H you don't really want to take them OVERB ten.

1256
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:06,319
Speaker 6: You want to take them closer to ADP because that's

1257
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,319
Speaker 6: how you get the value. You're getting a running back

1258
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 6: much later on that we're ranking higher again. You know,

1259
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 6: ADP you can't take you know, uh literally, but it

1260
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 6: just gives you an idea that you might be able

1261
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 6: to get this running back a round or two later

1262
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 6: and take somebody that is obviously going to be drafted

1263
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 6: before that running back is off the board.

1264
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 3: So that's that's great advice.

1265
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 6: When you use our rankings, you always have to factor

1266
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 6: in like when can I actually get this player, and

1267
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 6: if it's a round or two later, you don't want

1268
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 6: to take them because you're kind of killing the value

1269
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 6: that way. It's it's obviously a player that we're you know,

1270
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 6: higher end than the market. But the best way to

1271
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 6: like maximize the value in your draft is you take

1272
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 6: these players closer to the their ADP, and that's how

1273
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:51,960
Speaker 6: you can really build you know, a championship type lineup.

1274
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:54,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, so if we have guys let's say, let's say,

1275
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 5: if if we have a guy ranked two rounds higher

1276
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 5: than than ADP, you can even split the difference and

1277
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 5: just you could still, hey, I want to be safe

1278
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 5: and get this value. Take them one round higher and

1279
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:08,920
Speaker 5: you're still getting value and you're not risking him being

1280
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 5: off the boards either. So it's kind of a give

1281
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 5: or take. So yeah, because you're now you have value

1282
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 5: to play with. So that's one thing I just wanted

1283
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:16,920
Speaker 5: to to clarify because a lot of times people will

1284
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 5: just draft straight off rankings.

1285
00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 2: But if a lot of.

1286
00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 5: Times, especially with with with us, you know, because we're

1287
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 5: you know, to get to you know, be in top

1288
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 5: five an accuracy, a lot of times you're gonna deviate

1289
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 5: from the consensus. Right, So when you're looking at like,

1290
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 5: let's say our rankings, you're gonna see guys that are

1291
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 5: are are different from the consensus. That doesn't mean, you

1292
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 5: want to take them to the exact order we have

1293
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,320
Speaker 5: them ranked. If they're you know, their ADPs are gonna

1294
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 5: be a lot later, you want to that goes back

1295
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,000
Speaker 5: to position scarcely. So maybe with that running back, if

1296
00:58:45,040 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 5: you're getting the tenth running back you know at RB twenty,

1297
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 5: that gives you the opportunity to then you know, save

1298
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 5: that pick that you would have take them, take them

1299
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 5: taken in tenth and draft the stud tight end or

1300
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:56,000
Speaker 5: something like that.

1301
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 2: So that's how you really.

1302
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 5: Can kind of use those rankings to and use the

1303
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:05,400
Speaker 5: rankings versus ADP to increase the potential for your team.

1304
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 1: Okay, very good. We'll wrap with.

1305
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:12,600
Speaker 4: How to go about mid season strategy because that will

1306
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:17,919
Speaker 4: come up for people, so that could waivers, when, how

1307
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 4: and when to trade. I'll let each of you weigh

1308
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 4: in and then we can we can wrap this sucker up.

1309
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 4: So I'll let I'll let Sean take the lead on

1310
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 4: this as far as the because I know Sean, during

1311
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 4: the season you'll put out an article over on the

1312
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 4: action app Action network dot com top waiver wire dudes

1313
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:34,600
Speaker 4: that are available, and I mean trading that's kind of

1314
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,440
Speaker 4: a case by case basis. But why don't you speak

1315
00:59:36,440 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 4: to the waiver waiver wire and how that should all

1316
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 4: factor into people's strategies when the season begins.

1317
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know waivers every week.

1318
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 6: I have the waiver Wire article where I kind of

1319
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:54,480
Speaker 6: rank priority for each player, and you know, typically people

1320
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 6: want to know when they should use their number one

1321
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:00,960
Speaker 6: waiver slot because that's you know, coveted thing when you

1322
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 6: do have that number one waiver slot. And I always

1323
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,840
Speaker 6: say it's a case by case basis, but I think

1324
01:00:07,880 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 6: when it comes to using that, you want to use

1325
01:00:10,280 --> 01:00:13,400
Speaker 6: it on let's say running back for example, that's going

1326
01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:16,440
Speaker 6: to provide you rest of season value as opposed to

1327
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 6: just a two to three week rental. So an example

1328
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:23,000
Speaker 6: would be, you know, Travis Etn tweaks his ankle in

1329
01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:27,919
Speaker 6: Week one, Bigsby, presuming he's available in most leagues, would

1330
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 6: be you know, the top ad for that week. However,

1331
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 6: he might only provide you two to three games of

1332
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,480
Speaker 6: starter value, so I wouldn't necessarily use a number one

1333
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 6: waiver on him. You know, if I have the number

1334
01:00:40,160 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 6: five waiver, i'd throw something out for him. But if

1335
01:00:42,600 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 6: Travi's Etn were to suffer a season ending injury in

1336
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 6: week one, you pretty much know that Tank Bigsby might

1337
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:52,439
Speaker 6: offer you low end running back two value the rest

1338
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 6: of the year. So I think in that scenario, I

1339
01:00:55,160 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 6: would consider a number one waiver wire or spending a

1340
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:03,280
Speaker 6: lot more of my you know, fab budget on getting

1341
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:05,400
Speaker 6: a guy like Tink bigsically. So it's a case by

1342
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 6: case basis, and a lot of the times, to be honest,

1343
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 6: a lot of these guys that people are gravitating towards

1344
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 6: the top ad that week, you know, they probably have

1345
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:16,720
Speaker 6: their best game of the season, and people tend to overbid,

1346
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:21,280
Speaker 6: overspend below their number one waiver on him, and you know,

1347
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 6: it's like a third string receiver and we're just like,

1348
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:24,560
Speaker 6: pump the brakes on it.

1349
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 3: Relax, it's just one game.

1350
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 6: So I think a lot of the time I'm telling

1351
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 6: people to not spend too much, to not spend a

1352
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 6: top waiver slot, and I think that it's clear when

1353
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:38,480
Speaker 6: you should is when they're going to be offering starting value,

1354
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 6: you know, starting lineup value for your team for the

1355
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 6: rest of the season, and especially if you're hurting at

1356
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:47,280
Speaker 6: that position, then you should, you know, consider that over

1357
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 6: the others. But it's a it's a case by case basis,

1358
01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:53,000
Speaker 6: and I base that decision based on how many games

1359
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 6: I think they're going to provide starting value on my team.

1360
01:01:56,440 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 4: Chris, the dos and don'ts of the waiver wire, and

1361
01:01:58,840 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 4: maybe how, how and when to try.

1362
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I mean Sean really broke it down.

1363
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 5: Well, I'll just add that, you know, with the waiver wire,

1364
01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 5: it depends where you are in the season. So if

1365
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 5: you're in Week nine and you need to win all

1366
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 5: of your remaining games to have a shot at the playoffs,

1367
01:02:14,080 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 5: then you might need to take a shot at a

1368
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:17,720
Speaker 5: guy that gives you, you know, three to four weeks

1369
01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 5: or two to three weeks of value because you everything's

1370
01:02:20,040 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 5: a must win and if you're weak at that position. Uh,

1371
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 5: then there's the there's the other end of the spectrum

1372
01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:29,200
Speaker 5: where you might have had a great season and you

1373
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 5: might have that you know, a top waiver priority all

1374
01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:35,840
Speaker 5: the way up into the playoffs into championship week. If

1375
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:37,440
Speaker 5: it's if it's the last week of the season and

1376
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:39,360
Speaker 5: you have you can you can use even if it's

1377
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 5: not the number one, but you can use your waiver

1378
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 5: to try to pick up somebody that your opponent might need.

1379
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 5: So let's say there's a streaming quarterback that has a

1380
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:49,840
Speaker 5: projection that's or ranking that's higher than the quarterback that

1381
01:02:49,880 --> 01:02:52,080
Speaker 5: your opponent has on its roster currently, you might want

1382
01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:54,200
Speaker 5: to pick that guy up just so that your opponent

1383
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 5: doesn't pick him up if if you have you know

1384
01:02:56,960 --> 01:02:58,320
Speaker 5: that that priority still.

1385
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:00,520
Speaker 2: So there's things you could do like that.

1386
01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 5: And then when it comes to trading, it's always about

1387
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:06,080
Speaker 5: buying low and selling high. So any studs will still

1388
01:03:06,120 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 5: have bad games sometimes, Uh, sometimes they even have multiple

1389
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 5: bad games.

1390
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:11,440
Speaker 2: Now, some that could be a trend.

1391
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:14,120
Speaker 5: Sometimes they you know, if there's an older guy we

1392
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 5: talked about busts, maybe it's a decline. But a lot

1393
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:18,560
Speaker 5: of times it's just a couple of bad matchups or

1394
01:03:18,640 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 5: you know, things that just don't work out. Football is

1395
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:23,000
Speaker 5: are very there's a lot of randomness involved. So we

1396
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 5: always want to buy low. Coaching change, yep, yep. And yeah,

1397
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 5: and and so you always want to buy low.

1398
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:32,800
Speaker 4: Play change, not just necessarily head coach, but so and

1399
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:34,480
Speaker 4: so is now you know, Joe Brady's gonna call to

1400
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:37,479
Speaker 4: plays now, not whoever the hell they fired in Buffalo Ust.

1401
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:40,919
Speaker 2: Year, Ken Dorsey. Yeah, so you always want to kind

1402
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 2: of buy low on guys.

1403
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 5: Uh, especially guys that you know, we're expected to play

1404
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 5: well or that are still getting the volume, but maybe

1405
01:03:47,760 --> 01:03:50,520
Speaker 5: efficiency as it there. Touchdowns might not be there. You know,

1406
01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:54,640
Speaker 5: touchdowns are very hit or miss. And another thing, the

1407
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 5: key to trading, I would say, if if people are

1408
01:03:58,080 --> 01:04:02,200
Speaker 5: gonna take anything away, always try to trade multiple picks

1409
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:02,760
Speaker 5: for a stud.

1410
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 2: Like never try with trading. I'm I'm almost never going

1411
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:06,760
Speaker 2: for quantity.

1412
01:04:06,800 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 5: I'm always going for quality because if I drafted quantity

1413
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 5: and I have a bunch of good players, that just

1414
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:14,680
Speaker 5: means I had a good draft. So now I can

1415
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:16,880
Speaker 5: use those guys to get like guys that locked in,

1416
01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 5: I know I'm not gonna have to bench, and especially

1417
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:22,880
Speaker 5: the the need to do that as the season progresses

1418
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:24,000
Speaker 5: gets even more important.

1419
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:25,960
Speaker 2: So you know, if you're in week.

1420
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:27,480
Speaker 5: Ten and you're in you're you know, eight and two

1421
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:30,800
Speaker 5: or something like that, you can afford to trade maybe

1422
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:33,720
Speaker 5: your your your you know, number two and number three

1423
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 5: running back to get a second stud running back. And

1424
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:38,600
Speaker 5: let's say you already have one. You know, that's there

1425
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:40,640
Speaker 5: might be teams that are kind of on that playoff cust.

1426
01:04:40,480 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 2: That that need that quantity.

1427
01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:45,280
Speaker 5: So always try to get studs on every position. As

1428
01:04:45,320 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 5: you approach the playoffs. And just another little slick tip

1429
01:04:49,120 --> 01:04:52,280
Speaker 5: that I like, you know, in season trading, uh, you

1430
01:04:52,280 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 5: could trade away players who uh you know, haven't had

1431
01:04:56,320 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 5: their buy yet and trade four players who have already

1432
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:01,520
Speaker 5: had their buy and you're get an extra week of

1433
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 5: of production. So that's something that people might not think

1434
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:07,120
Speaker 5: about when they're making these trades and valuing these players.

1435
01:05:07,200 --> 01:05:10,240
Speaker 5: It's like, oh, this guy already had his buy, so

1436
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:12,400
Speaker 5: you know I'm gonna get I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm

1437
01:05:12,440 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 5: gonna get him for the rest of the season, and

1438
01:05:13,840 --> 01:05:15,720
Speaker 5: he's not. You know, if everything goes well, I'm gonna

1439
01:05:15,720 --> 01:05:17,480
Speaker 5: get him every single week, whereas I might trade you

1440
01:05:17,520 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 5: a guy who has to buy two weeks later, so

1441
01:05:19,400 --> 01:05:21,920
Speaker 5: that that's like minus one week of production that you're

1442
01:05:21,960 --> 01:05:22,520
Speaker 5: getting back.

1443
01:05:23,120 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 2: So that that's another thing you can kind of do.

1444
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 5: But the big thing of trades is always trying to

1445
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:29,960
Speaker 5: acquire as many studs, so you like, the idea is

1446
01:05:30,040 --> 01:05:32,360
Speaker 5: when you're hitting the playoffs to have studs at every

1447
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:32,960
Speaker 5: single spot.

1448
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 4: Chris Shawan, this was great, excellent stuff, Guys. Sixth Annual

1449
01:05:36,920 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 4: Experts Guy to Fantasy Football. This was a lot of fun.

1450
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 4: I learned something. I'm excited now to go mock draft.

1451
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 4: I'm gonna mock draft for days leading into my drafts.

1452
01:05:45,160 --> 01:05:46,840
Speaker 4: Any final thoughts before we get out of here. I

1453
01:05:46,840 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 4: think we covered it all.

1454
01:05:48,080 --> 01:05:49,200
Speaker 3: Sign up for our draft cut.

1455
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:53,760
Speaker 5: Yes, Fantasyhabs dot com. We've been really consistent. We put

1456
01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:54,840
Speaker 5: a lot of work into our rankings.

1457
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:55,120
Speaker 3: We all have.

1458
01:05:55,200 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 5: We have special rankings for best ball thought as well.

1459
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:01,120
Speaker 5: So it's you know, we have our redraft rankings and

1460
01:06:01,240 --> 01:06:02,560
Speaker 5: we have our best ball rankers where we're take it

1461
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:04,880
Speaker 5: into account those ceilings and floors and some of them

1462
01:06:04,920 --> 01:06:06,240
Speaker 5: are the same and some of them are different.

1463
01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaker 3: But also just.

1464
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:09,600
Speaker 5: Remember you can't win your draft in the first few raft,

1465
01:06:09,640 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 5: but you could lose it. Focus on those middle of

1466
01:06:11,800 --> 01:06:12,880
Speaker 5: the right round picks.

1467
01:06:12,920 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 1: All right.

1468
01:06:13,400 --> 01:06:16,920
Speaker 4: Chris Raybond Sean Kerner two of Fantasy Pro's top five

1469
01:06:17,040 --> 01:06:20,920
Speaker 4: most accurate season long rankers over the last couple of years.

1470
01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 4: They were excellent providing their insights and analysis heading into

1471
01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:28,360
Speaker 4: your fantasy drafts. You can find both of them, of course,

1472
01:06:28,760 --> 01:06:32,680
Speaker 4: at the Action networkactionnetwork dot com. My name is Brendan Glasheen.

1473
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:34,440
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for tuning in. We hope you

1474
01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:37,760
Speaker 4: learned something or two. Thanks for tuning in to the

1475
01:06:37,800 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 4: sixth annual Experts Guide to Fantasy Football here on the

1476
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:44,919
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast presented by bet MBM. Best of luck

1477
01:06:45,240 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 4: in your draft prep.

1478
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1479
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:08,520
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1480
01:07:08,800 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1481
01:07:11,520 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 1: hundred gambler