WEBVTT - TechStuff Predicts 2018 0:00:04.160 --> 0:00:07.480 Get in text with technology with tech Stuff from stuff 0:00:07.520 --> 0:00:13.840 works dot com. Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:16.560 I am your host, Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:21.040 over at how Stuff Works, and I like technology, except 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:23.279 at this time of the year. It's the time of 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.680 the year when I stick my neck out, get ready 0:00:26.680 --> 0:00:29.440 for my head to get chopped off, and predict what's 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:32.680 gonna happen in the following twelve months of tech I'm 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:36.840 recording this episode on December seventeen, so technically there's still 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:39.400 half a month of December left to go, but I'm 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:43.839 looking ahead at This is the the last episode I 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:47.280 believe of tech Stuff to publish in the year twenty seventeen, 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:49.760 so when you hear the next one will be celebrating 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:53.600 a new year. But first, let's before that all happens, 0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:57.200 let's let's kind of take some guesses. Um and and 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:59.920 I decided this year to make some more specific prediction 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:03.760 rather than the really general ones I tend to go with, 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:09.400 because not only do I think you guys deserve more 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:13.160 specific predictions, but it's also way easier to figure out 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:15.880 if they came true or not. Here's the here's the 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.840 secret folks. After I make these episodes and they go live, 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:23.240 and a year passes, and it comes time for me 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:27.120 to look and evaluate how well I predicted things. I 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:29.840 have to do all that research. I have to figure out, well, 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:33.800 did what I said, did it happened, Did it happen 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:35.160 the way I thought it would, did it happen a 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:39.120 different way? That requires a huge amount of research. And 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.520 the more general the prediction is, the harder it is 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:44.560 to nail down whether or not it happened. But if 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:49.640 I make very specific predictions, then I have a much 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:53.160 better chance of knowing right away if I'm right or wrong. So, 0:01:53.240 --> 0:02:01.600 for example, if I predict that in you and McGregor 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:08.799 becomes the CEO of Google, I'm gonna know by December. Now, 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.120 of course, the challenge there is to make predictions that 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:15.280 are not patently ridiculous, because that's just wasting your time 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:18.680 and I don't want to do that. So here's hoping 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:23.639 that some of these predictions are interesting and that they 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:26.079 are verifiable or falsifiable at the end of the year. 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.800 Those are Michaels. So with that being said, let us 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:36.399 go to prediction number one, which is that VR headsets 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:40.840 like Oculus rift HTC, Vibe and others will have another 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:45.679 lackluster year. We're not going to see a spike in sales. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:49.520 By the end of VR will not have made any 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:53.359 real progress in home markets, and will likely see several 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:57.760 products discontinued, although the Vibe and the Rift may survive 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:02.000 just because they have larger corporate sans behind them. So 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:05.440 in other words, I expect when I look at the 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:10.400 analyst reports in December, that there won't be any months 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:15.440 where VR headsets suddenly make incredible sales. We'll probably see 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:17.880 some of those prices come down, and we'll probably see 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:20.520 the prices of the various computers that you need in 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:23.480 order to run VR at a decent clip, we'll see 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:25.960 those prices come down too, But I don't know it's 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:29.840 going to come down enough to make this a common 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:33.839 household technology. And we're also starting to see a lot 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:38.240 more development on the VR space with software, with experiences 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:41.360 that you can have that will help. I don't think 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.320 it's going to be enough. So I think by this 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:47.760 time we're gonna be looking at a pretty similar situation 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:51.280 as far as virtual reality is concerned. I find that 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:55.200 sad I would love to see VR takeoff. I just 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:57.800 don't feel like it's quite catching on. I think we 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:01.280 might be past the point where it could really hook 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:09.160 in to the general consumer market. Prediction number two. Microsoft 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:14.240 mixed reality headsets, being the relatively new toy on the market, 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:17.839 will get some initial buzz in the early part ofen 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:21.400 but will largely suffer essentially the same fate as virtual 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:25.280 reality headsets. And I think a R augmented reality has 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:29.400 incredible potential to do really big business. I just don't 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:32.040 think is going to be the year where it happens, 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:36.240 so I don't expect big sales numbers now. Augmented reality, 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:39.000 in case you've forgotten, is the technology in which we 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:44.600 are able to overlay or augment our experience of reality 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:48.839 with some sort of digital information. Typically, we're looking at 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.359 the world through a screen, so we're getting like a 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:54.520 live video feed of our surroundings through a screen, and 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.800 on that screen we can overlay digital information and us 0:04:57.839 --> 0:04:59.839 augment our experience. But there are a lot of other 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:04.160 variations on this, like things that are ad audible as 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.080 opposed to visual, that sort of stuff. I just don't 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.680 think that the mixed reality headsets are going to be 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:14.920 a huge consumer uh piece of technology. Either. We might 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:22.960 see it being used in industrial or business related endeavors, 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:24.960 but I don't think it's going to become the hot 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:27.280 new consumer product. I don't think you're gonna go home, 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.320 put on your mixed reality headset and then do some computing. 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:33.920 I could be wrong about that. It all depends on 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:37.480 how the technology is positioned and how it's marketed, but 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:41.000 I would be surprised if mixed reality really takes off 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:46.840 in the consumer space. Prediction number three, We're gonna see 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.919 autonomous car service rolled out for real z s, not 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.360 just as a limited test case, in at least one 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:59.039 market in the United States, before the end of now. 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:01.640 This is similar to a prediction I made for seventeen 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:03.720 where I said that Uber was going to try and 0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:08.600 do a truly autonomous test system in a major US 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:12.480 market where there'd be no driver in the driver's seat. 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:15.040 It would truly be an autonomous car with no human 0:06:15.080 --> 0:06:18.960 operator there to step in line. But that did not happen. 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.640 I do think we're gonna see at least a limited 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:28.599 rollout of autonomous car service in one market in the US, 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:31.400 not as a test, but as this is our service 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:35.280 moving forward in this market by the end of That's 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.200 a not that bold of a prediction, I would argue, 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:43.719 because we've seen some of this in prototype stages throughout. 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:51.159 Uber was operating some autonomous vehicle services in Pittsburgh, in Arizona, 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:54.640 in San Francisco, but all of those were with a 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:57.960 human operator in the car as well. UM I think 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:01.919 that before is over, some one, maybe not Uber, but 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.760 someone will be operating a truly autonomous car service in 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:07.479 a major market. I don't know that it will be 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:12.520 a huge success, but I think it will happen, So 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:19.680 that will be something to look out for. Prediction number four, Congress, 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.240 it's going to give the nod to Disney and twenty 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:26.920 first century Fox and say yes, Disney, you can acquire 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:30.600 twenty one century Fox. This will take several months, but 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:34.720 it will happen. Disney will then end up being the 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:39.559 six owner of Hulu because they already owned thirty percent 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:42.720 of Hulu and Fox owns another thirty percent of Hulu. 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:45.840 But they're also going to go ahead and develop their 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:49.960 own streaming service on top of their majority ownership of Hulu. 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:56.160 So the landscape of two thousand eighteen December two thousand 0:07:56.240 --> 0:08:01.400 eighteen will be that the massive entertainment into Street will 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:06.080 be more under Disney's belt than ever before. Disney will 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:10.080 control all those assets that Century Fox had that were 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.920 related to entertainment. Twenty first Century Fox of the company 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:18.400 Murdocks Company will still have some of Fox's properties under it, 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:22.360 but a large portion of that goes to Disney. It 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.200 means lots of different things. It means that we could 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:28.120 potentially see lots of those uh those Fox owned or 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:31.400 Fox licensed properties from Marvel make their way into Disney's 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:33.920 Marvel movies. That would include The Fantastic Four and The 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:37.560 X Men and Deadpool and characters like that. But on 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:41.880 a bigger scale, it means all sorts of things. It 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:46.360 means an impact to streaming services. It means that we're 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:50.560 going to see increasingly more of our entertainment come from 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:54.400 a decreasing number of major studios, which isn't necessarily a 0:08:54.440 --> 0:09:00.640 good thing. We also will see that Star Wars New Hope, 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:05.200 which was in perpetuity given to twenty first Century Fox, 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:09.120 will now join all of its brothers and sisters of 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:14.480 the Star Wars properties under Disney, which means potentially we 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:21.599 could get a digitally remastered version of the cinematic releases 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:25.480 of the original trilogy. In other words, before the special editions, 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:29.040 we could get a fully cleaned up version of those movies, 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:35.000 because Disney will own all of them. Before Fox had 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:38.960 the agreement that they owned the rights to a New 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:42.280 Hope and Us, there was very little hope that we 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:46.040 were ever going to get that cinematic release, the one 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:51.600 where Han shot first, or actually Han shot period um. 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:54.960 That one we now could potentially get. That's a big one. 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:57.679 I don't think we're going to get in, but I 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:04.000 think it could happen. Prediction number five. After numerous heated discussions, 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:10.199 Congress will overturn the FCC's decision in December to reverse 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:14.880 the decision classifying broadband Internet as a public utility. That 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.800 one was made back in. This is gonna be the 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:22.800 result of lots of lawsuits and arguments in Congress. I 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:26.280 think ultimately Congress is going to take a look at 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:29.839 the ground swell of support in the United States among 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:35.640 citizens to maintain that neutrality, to keep those rules in place. Uh, 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:39.680 and we'll say, hey, we can't really risk going against 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.360 the will of the people without putting ourselves in danger. 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:47.480 Right now, if you are in Congress, you're probably looking 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:52.319 at your position as being on shaky ground at best, 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:57.120 because things are very tumultuous in United States politics, and 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.760 as a result, even if you don't necessarily side with 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:05.800 the net neutrality argument, your constituency might and that would 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:08.680 mean that you have a vested interest in making sure 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.480 that you kind of support it so that you don't 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:15.640 have an angry mob of constituents at home who then 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:19.120 will vote your butt out of office the next time 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:23.120 a vote comes around. That might be an overly optimistic 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:27.040 view of what is going to happen. But I suspect 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:29.719 that we're going to see this decision from the f 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:35.040 c C blocked in some way in and again. It 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.839 may come from the courts, or it may come from Congress, 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:40.920 but I don't think we're going to get through with 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:48.240 those new considerations in place. Um. The FCC argues, by 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:51.200 the way, that net neutrality will still be a thing, 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.480 it's just it won't be an official regulation. The government 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:58.319 won't be enforcing net neutrality, but the internet service providers 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:02.520 will maintain net new trality out of self interest. That 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:06.280 might possibly be true if in the United States we 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:09.760 had a true free market with internet service providers. If 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.320 you had multiple choices for an I s P within 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:17.200 your market, then you could argue, all right, well, net 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:21.880 neutrality isn't protected. But if one company decides to act 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:26.320 in a way that is contrary to net neutrality, I 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:29.400 could just stop my service with them and go to 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.280 a competitor. But that's not the way it works in 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:35.840 the United States. Most regions in the US that have 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:40.880 broadband access have at most two I s p s 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.880 to choose from, and most of them only have one. 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:47.000 So if you only have one choice, there's nowhere else 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:51.760 to go. So the argument that the free market will 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:57.120 maintain net neutrality to me seems disingenuous because there's not 0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:00.640 really a free market in the I s P business 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:04.920 in the United States. So I suspect that ultimately this 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:09.800 is gonna get overturned. Prediction number six. By the end 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.680 of two thousand eighteen, the percentage of cord cutters in 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:17.160 the US will be such that will see thirty million 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:22.880 people cutting the cord. Total. Now, in seventeen, that number 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:25.000 was at twenty two point two million. We had twenty 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:30.400 two point two million chord cutters by seventeen. That's not 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:34.280 throughout the year, but in total that was up from 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.560 sixteen point seven million in twenty sixteen. So I think 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.760 that trend is not just going to continue. I think 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.960 it's gonna pick up a little more speed. So it 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.719 they gained a little bit more than five and a 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:51.000 half million cord cutters in twenty seventeen, I think we're 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:56.440 gonna go closer to seven point eight million in eighteen. 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:58.439 So that's gonna knock us up to thirty million total. 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:01.800 Thirty million people who have cut the chord and they 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:06.600 no longer subscribe to traditional cable or satellite television. They 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:10.560 will they might subscribe to a virtual subscription on a 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.680 smart TV or a console or some other solution, but 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:19.120 they will abandon the traditional satellite or cable option. That's 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:23.400 my prediction for cutting the chord, and that the never chords. 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:26.240 Those are people who are of adult age who have 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:30.480 never paid for traditional cable or satellite. That number is 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:32.720 going to go up to just because you're gonna have 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:35.840 more people reach the age of eighteen who still have 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:38.760 never done that and don't have any plans to do it, 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:40.840 So that number is going to keep going up too, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.000 just as a result of younger generations reaching the age 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:48.440 of maturity and not having ever bought a cable or 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:51.760 satellite package for television. But we're also going to see 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:55.160 more and more households that have been doing that cut 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.640 those ties, and that, as a result, is also going 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:03.280 to have massive applications across the entertainment industry because you're 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.360 gonna see advertising react as a result of that. If 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:11.200 you have fewer people watching your ads, then those ads 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.720 have less value and that's going to have this ripple 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:17.040 effect throughout the industry and it will be really interesting 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:19.320 to see where things go from there. I don't think 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:23.400 it's going to be massively disruptive by the end of 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:28.560 but it's going to continue this trend of disruption that 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:31.840 I imagine we'll see hit its peak and maybe another 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.240 four or five years and uh, at that point, who 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:37.640 knows what will come next, but I think the landscape 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.600 will be drastically different. Well, I've got a lot more 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:44.600 predictions about ten coming up, but first let's take a 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:54.200 quick break to thank our sponsor. All Right, we're up 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:58.000 to prediction number seven. There will be at least one 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:02.240 and probably more than one security breaches on the scale 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:06.680 of the Equifax breach. In because while we pay a 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:10.280 lot of lip service towards security. It's way easier to 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:14.640 talk about being secure than to actually take the steps 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.320 and make sure we are are doing it. And plus 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:22.000 we're human beings and we're wacky you, So this, I 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:24.440 think is a gimme. I would be shocked if we 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:30.520 get through without another massive security breach making the news. 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:33.360 It maybe that it's a breach that a company tries 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:35.200 to cover up. That seems to be the m O 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:37.600 for a lot of companies. It never works out well 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:40.920 for them. It always eventually will find its way to 0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:44.720 the public, and then it's way worse at that point. 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:50.800 Equifax is a great example. The The initial UH vulnerability 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:55.720 was found in March. The earliest evidence of an attack 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:59.080 was found in May, and no one talked about until September, 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:02.400 and by more than a hundred and thirty million accounts 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:07.560 had been breached and accessed and potentially all that personal 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:11.520 data is now compromised. So I suspect we're gonna see 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:15.040 something along those lines again. Don't know who will be 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:19.040 the target, could be anybody, don't know what vulnerability they'll use, 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:23.959 could be anything, but just from the fact that no 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:26.920 one ever seems to really get their head around how 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:31.080 to practice good security tells me that this is going 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.040 to happen. In the case with Equifax, the company was 0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:39.960 even aware of the vulnerability before the first attack apparently happened, 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:44.200 but failed to act to solve that. Despite the fact 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:47.879 that the company has a policy of fixing such problems 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:51.000 within forty eight hours of discovering them. That just didn't happen. 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:55.119 With the Equifax data breach, I suspect we're going to 0:17:55.200 --> 0:18:00.119 see something along those lines. I'd rather not. I I 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:03.879 have been personally affected by some of these. The Yahoo breach, 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:08.040 the Equifax breach. It's all gonna happen again, though. Uh, 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:12.480 just because there's no such thing as a perfect secure system, 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:17.800 and there's way too many examples of companies that just 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:21.639 don't take the right steps to address vulnerabilities once they 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:26.679 are found. They drag their feet because fixing problems is 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.560 expensive and it takes time and it takes energy away 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:33.600 from doing business. But if you don't do it, the 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:36.000 amount you're going to have to spend in order to 0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:39.600 correct the problems that will happen will dwarf anything you 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.879 would have spent just fixing the problem in the first place. 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:46.479 So I would love to be proven wrong on this, 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:52.120 hopefully December, I'll say, wow, we got through without any 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:55.239 major breaches. I would love to be proven wrong. I 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:59.879 just don't think it's gonna happen. Prediction number eight. Apple 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:03.840 next iPhone, which I'm betting will not have a number 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.439 associated with it. So it's not going to be the 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:08.879 iPhone eleven. It will be called something else, maybe just 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:13.880 the iPhone It will be an incremental upgrade to iPhone ten. 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:19.800 So it's not gonna be some sort of massive evolution 0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:23.359 of the iPhone ten. Now, Johnny, i'ves Sir Johnny Eyes 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:27.080 has once again taken the helm of design over at Apple. 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:32.320 He's personally involved. However, I don't think his influence is 0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:36.040 likely going to be seen that much in the products 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:38.680 that come out next year. I don't think that's going 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:43.600 to really be a major component for another generation or so, 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.439 because it takes more than a year of work to 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:52.520 produce these products. So the next iPhone, the iPhone whatever 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:54.440 it will be called, but I don't think it will 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:57.880 be called the iPhone eleven, is already well in the 0:19:57.920 --> 0:20:01.640 development stage at this point. It's got to be because 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.119 by the time September rolls around, it has to be 0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:08.520 ready to go to manufacturing plants and be produced in 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:12.000 large numbers. That means that it already has to be 0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:16.240 well along the development cycle. That being, and since Johnny 0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:19.720 I've just came back over into the design section and 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:22.560 got really hands on with everything, I think that means 0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:27.240 we will not see a direct evidence of his involvement 0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:30.360 of his influence, at least not beyond what we see 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:33.920 in Apple products in general. Uh, this next generation is 0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:39.560 going to take another generation before that happens. Prediction number nine. 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.960 We're gonna see a rise in cord cutting, which will 0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:47.160 have a big effect on advertising, but we'll also see 0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:50.880 a rise in ad blocking online. We're gonna see more 0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:54.879 and more people installing ad blockers and developing ad blockers. 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:58.080 This is going to encourage more sites to use ad 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:01.040 blocker detectors. If you've we use an ad blocker and 0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:03.080 you've gone to one of those sites, you've probably seen 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:05.680 a pop up up here and saying, hey, we see 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:08.960 you're using an ad blocker. Please don't do that. If 0:21:08.960 --> 0:21:11.320 you want to look at our stuff, white list our 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:14.800 sites so that we can make money. Sometimes you can't 0:21:14.800 --> 0:21:19.560 even view the original content until you have white listed them. 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.600 Or pause your ad blocker, whatever it may be. This 0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:25.720 is likely going to inspire more people to file lawsuits 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.399 against such practices. There's an argument going on that says 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:34.760 it's a violation of privacy for a web page or 0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:39.560 a website to look into what your browser has in 0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:42.720 order to serve you up this information of Oh, I 0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:44.560 see your using an ad blocker. They said, well, that's 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.040 a violation of privacy because you're staring at what I'm 0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:49.880 using on my computer and I didn't give you permission 0:21:49.880 --> 0:21:54.159 to do that. This is still unraveling as I record 0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:57.119 this podcast, so we're probably gonna see that continue in. 0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.560 It's gonna be a big mess, and this is going 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:05.600 to bring the question everyone is worried about closer to 0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:07.959 the foreground. It's going to bring this question up that 0:22:08.040 --> 0:22:11.000 people are going to have to grapple with, which is 0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:15.879 how do you make money creating content on the Internet 0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:21.040 in a way that does not alienate your customers. I 0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:25.159 have a vested interest in this question. This podcast is 0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:29.840 ad supported. Without those ads, there's no revenue. Without revenue, 0:22:30.320 --> 0:22:34.000 we I don't get paid, we don't have a space 0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:37.840 to record in, we don't have money to host these podcasts. 0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:42.480 These podcasts stop getting recorded, the company goes away. That's 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:46.919 our source of revenue. So we want to be able 0:22:47.040 --> 0:22:49.480 to do this. I love my job, I love doing 0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:52.440 what I do, but I can't just do it for free. 0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:56.520 I don't get paid in songs and sandwiches. I can't 0:22:56.560 --> 0:23:00.480 pay my rent with any sort of good will from 0:23:00.480 --> 0:23:04.800 you listeners. I need I need cash money you. It's 0:23:04.800 --> 0:23:09.119 a hard knock life out there, So we as creators 0:23:09.119 --> 0:23:13.720 have a responsibility to come up with ways that allow 0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:19.160 us to make money uh off of our ideas and 0:23:19.640 --> 0:23:21.240 do it in such a way that is not too 0:23:21.280 --> 0:23:26.560 intrusive or irritating or otherwise off putting. That's our responsibility. 0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:29.119 It's also the responsibility of the advertisers to come up 0:23:29.160 --> 0:23:33.920 with methods that are effective, that give you the information 0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:38.600 you need to act upon those advertisements so that this 0:23:38.680 --> 0:23:43.280 whole cycle works. If it doesn't, then obviously something's broken 0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:46.720 and eventually the system collapses. Well, this is true across 0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:51.080 the entire web. It's not just podcasts, but on regular websites. 0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:55.600 And I look, I'm a web user. I find ads 0:23:56.320 --> 0:24:00.840 really really irritating as well. I was using a browser 0:24:00.880 --> 0:24:04.080 to look at content the other day, I did not 0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:07.080 have an ad blocker in place. I'm reading an article. 0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:10.119 A paragraph and a half down into the article, I 0:24:10.200 --> 0:24:16.280 get an enormous full screen overlay of an ad playing music, 0:24:16.840 --> 0:24:20.840 completely obscuring the article I was trying to read. That 0:24:21.040 --> 0:24:26.439 is obnoxious. Nobody wants that, And it's that sort of 0:24:26.480 --> 0:24:29.239 stuff that continues the argument, Hey, I want to use 0:24:29.280 --> 0:24:33.680 an ad blocker because otherwise my experience is terrible. That's 0:24:33.680 --> 0:24:36.760 a valid argument to make. But on the other hand, 0:24:37.240 --> 0:24:40.040 if you don't have the ads, you can't pay to 0:24:40.160 --> 0:24:42.639 have that content, you can't create the content. You're not 0:24:42.680 --> 0:24:46.840 gonna do it for free. So we're gonna see this 0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:52.760 really kind of become a battleground in this This is 0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:55.080 gonna be the the lead. We got to sit down 0:24:55.160 --> 0:24:59.480 and fix this because it's broken right now and nobody 0:24:59.600 --> 0:25:02.000 is coming out a winner. We want to have something 0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:06.800 that is giving value to our customers, is giving value 0:25:07.240 --> 0:25:10.959 to the advertisers, and that allows us to make the 0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:14.480 stuff we want to make. I don't have the answer 0:25:14.520 --> 0:25:17.080 to what that is. By the way, I am a 0:25:17.119 --> 0:25:21.679 lowly content creator. I know what I hate. I hate 0:25:22.119 --> 0:25:25.600 I hate really obnoxious ads. I don't hate all ads. 0:25:26.320 --> 0:25:30.680 Some ads I find either entertaining or helpful. A lot 0:25:30.720 --> 0:25:32.960 of ads that are based on my browsing behavior I 0:25:33.000 --> 0:25:36.360 actually kind of like because I end up seeing stuff 0:25:36.400 --> 0:25:39.000 that I'm interested in but I might not have ever 0:25:39.080 --> 0:25:43.399 known about. So those I actually enjoy. But uh, and 0:25:43.440 --> 0:25:46.760 I have. I've clicked on those ads and bought stuff 0:25:46.840 --> 0:25:49.560 that way. But you've got to be really careful how 0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:51.680 you do that too, because obviously if you do too 0:25:51.760 --> 0:25:54.560 much of that, it becomes kind of creepy, right. It 0:25:54.560 --> 0:25:56.520 feels like someone spying on you and getting to know 0:25:56.600 --> 0:25:59.080