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Speaker 1: Get in text with technology with tech Stuff from stuff

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Speaker 1: works dot com. Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer

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Speaker 1: over at how Stuff Works, and I like technology, except

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Speaker 1: at this time of the year. It's the time of

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Speaker 1: the year when I stick my neck out, get ready

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Speaker 1: for my head to get chopped off, and predict what's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen in the following twelve months of tech I'm

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Speaker 1: recording this episode on December seventeen, so technically there's still

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Speaker 1: half a month of December left to go, but I'm

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Speaker 1: looking ahead at This is the the last episode I

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Speaker 1: believe of tech Stuff to publish in the year twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: so when you hear the next one will be celebrating

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Speaker 1: a new year. But first, let's before that all happens,

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Speaker 1: let's let's kind of take some guesses. Um and and

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Speaker 1: I decided this year to make some more specific prediction

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Speaker 1: rather than the really general ones I tend to go with,

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Speaker 1: because not only do I think you guys deserve more

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Speaker 1: specific predictions, but it's also way easier to figure out

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Speaker 1: if they came true or not. Here's the here's the

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Speaker 1: secret folks. After I make these episodes and they go live,

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Speaker 1: and a year passes, and it comes time for me

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Speaker 1: to look and evaluate how well I predicted things. I

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Speaker 1: have to do all that research. I have to figure out, well,

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Speaker 1: did what I said, did it happened, Did it happen

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Speaker 1: the way I thought it would, did it happen a

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Speaker 1: different way? That requires a huge amount of research. And

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Speaker 1: the more general the prediction is, the harder it is

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Speaker 1: to nail down whether or not it happened. But if

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Speaker 1: I make very specific predictions, then I have a much

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Speaker 1: better chance of knowing right away if I'm right or wrong. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, if I predict that in you and McGregor

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Speaker 1: becomes the CEO of Google, I'm gonna know by December. Now,

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Speaker 1: of course, the challenge there is to make predictions that

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Speaker 1: are not patently ridiculous, because that's just wasting your time

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Speaker 1: and I don't want to do that. So here's hoping

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Speaker 1: that some of these predictions are interesting and that they

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Speaker 1: are verifiable or falsifiable at the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Those are Michaels. So with that being said, let us

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Speaker 1: go to prediction number one, which is that VR headsets

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Speaker 1: like Oculus rift HTC, Vibe and others will have another

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Speaker 1: lackluster year. We're not going to see a spike in sales.

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Speaker 1: By the end of VR will not have made any

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Speaker 1: real progress in home markets, and will likely see several

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Speaker 1: products discontinued, although the Vibe and the Rift may survive

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Speaker 1: just because they have larger corporate sans behind them. So

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Speaker 1: in other words, I expect when I look at the

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Speaker 1: analyst reports in December, that there won't be any months

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Speaker 1: where VR headsets suddenly make incredible sales. We'll probably see

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Speaker 1: some of those prices come down, and we'll probably see

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Speaker 1: the prices of the various computers that you need in

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Speaker 1: order to run VR at a decent clip, we'll see

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Speaker 1: those prices come down too, But I don't know it's

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Speaker 1: going to come down enough to make this a common

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Speaker 1: household technology. And we're also starting to see a lot

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Speaker 1: more development on the VR space with software, with experiences

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Speaker 1: that you can have that will help. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be enough. So I think by this

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Speaker 1: time we're gonna be looking at a pretty similar situation

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Speaker 1: as far as virtual reality is concerned. I find that

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Speaker 1: sad I would love to see VR takeoff. I just

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Speaker 1: don't feel like it's quite catching on. I think we

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Speaker 1: might be past the point where it could really hook

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Speaker 1: in to the general consumer market. Prediction number two. Microsoft

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Speaker 1: mixed reality headsets, being the relatively new toy on the market,

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Speaker 1: will get some initial buzz in the early part ofen

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Speaker 1: but will largely suffer essentially the same fate as virtual

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Speaker 1: reality headsets. And I think a R augmented reality has

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Speaker 1: incredible potential to do really big business. I just don't

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Speaker 1: think is going to be the year where it happens,

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Speaker 1: so I don't expect big sales numbers now. Augmented reality,

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Speaker 1: in case you've forgotten, is the technology in which we

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Speaker 1: are able to overlay or augment our experience of reality

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Speaker 1: with some sort of digital information. Typically, we're looking at

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Speaker 1: the world through a screen, so we're getting like a

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Speaker 1: live video feed of our surroundings through a screen, and

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Speaker 1: on that screen we can overlay digital information and us

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Speaker 1: augment our experience. But there are a lot of other

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Speaker 1: variations on this, like things that are ad audible as

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Speaker 1: opposed to visual, that sort of stuff. I just don't

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Speaker 1: think that the mixed reality headsets are going to be

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Speaker 1: a huge consumer uh piece of technology. Either. We might

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Speaker 1: see it being used in industrial or business related endeavors,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's going to become the hot

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Speaker 1: new consumer product. I don't think you're gonna go home,

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Speaker 1: put on your mixed reality headset and then do some computing.

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Speaker 1: I could be wrong about that. It all depends on

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Speaker 1: how the technology is positioned and how it's marketed, but

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Speaker 1: I would be surprised if mixed reality really takes off

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Speaker 1: in the consumer space. Prediction number three, We're gonna see

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Speaker 1: autonomous car service rolled out for real z s, not

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Speaker 1: just as a limited test case, in at least one

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Speaker 1: market in the United States, before the end of now.

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Speaker 1: This is similar to a prediction I made for seventeen

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Speaker 1: where I said that Uber was going to try and

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Speaker 1: do a truly autonomous test system in a major US

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Speaker 1: market where there'd be no driver in the driver's seat.

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Speaker 1: It would truly be an autonomous car with no human

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Speaker 1: operator there to step in line. But that did not happen.

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Speaker 1: I do think we're gonna see at least a limited

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Speaker 1: rollout of autonomous car service in one market in the US,

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Speaker 1: not as a test, but as this is our service

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Speaker 1: moving forward in this market by the end of That's

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Speaker 1: a not that bold of a prediction, I would argue,

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Speaker 1: because we've seen some of this in prototype stages throughout.

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Speaker 1: Uber was operating some autonomous vehicle services in Pittsburgh, in Arizona,

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Speaker 1: in San Francisco, but all of those were with a

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Speaker 1: human operator in the car as well. UM I think

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Speaker 1: that before is over, some one, maybe not Uber, but

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Speaker 1: someone will be operating a truly autonomous car service in

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Speaker 1: a major market. I don't know that it will be

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Speaker 1: a huge success, but I think it will happen, So

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Speaker 1: that will be something to look out for. Prediction number four, Congress,

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Speaker 1: it's going to give the nod to Disney and twenty

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Speaker 1: first century Fox and say yes, Disney, you can acquire

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Speaker 1: twenty one century Fox. This will take several months, but

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Speaker 1: it will happen. Disney will then end up being the

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Speaker 1: six owner of Hulu because they already owned thirty percent

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Speaker 1: of Hulu and Fox owns another thirty percent of Hulu.

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Speaker 1: But they're also going to go ahead and develop their

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Speaker 1: own streaming service on top of their majority ownership of Hulu.

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Speaker 1: So the landscape of two thousand eighteen December two thousand

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Speaker 1: eighteen will be that the massive entertainment into Street will

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Speaker 1: be more under Disney's belt than ever before. Disney will

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Speaker 1: control all those assets that Century Fox had that were

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Speaker 1: related to entertainment. Twenty first Century Fox of the company

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Speaker 1: Murdocks Company will still have some of Fox's properties under it,

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Speaker 1: but a large portion of that goes to Disney. It

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Speaker 1: means lots of different things. It means that we could

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Speaker 1: potentially see lots of those uh those Fox owned or

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Speaker 1: Fox licensed properties from Marvel make their way into Disney's

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Speaker 1: Marvel movies. That would include The Fantastic Four and The

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Speaker 1: X Men and Deadpool and characters like that. But on

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Speaker 1: a bigger scale, it means all sorts of things. It

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Speaker 1: means an impact to streaming services. It means that we're

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Speaker 1: going to see increasingly more of our entertainment come from

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Speaker 1: a decreasing number of major studios, which isn't necessarily a

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Speaker 1: good thing. We also will see that Star Wars New Hope,

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Speaker 1: which was in perpetuity given to twenty first Century Fox,

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Speaker 1: will now join all of its brothers and sisters of

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Speaker 1: the Star Wars properties under Disney, which means potentially we

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Speaker 1: could get a digitally remastered version of the cinematic releases

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Speaker 1: of the original trilogy. In other words, before the special editions,

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Speaker 1: we could get a fully cleaned up version of those movies,

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Speaker 1: because Disney will own all of them. Before Fox had

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Speaker 1: the agreement that they owned the rights to a New

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Speaker 1: Hope and Us, there was very little hope that we

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Speaker 1: were ever going to get that cinematic release, the one

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Speaker 1: where Han shot first, or actually Han shot period um.

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Speaker 1: That one we now could potentially get. That's a big one.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get in, but I

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Speaker 1: think it could happen. Prediction number five. After numerous heated discussions,

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Speaker 1: Congress will overturn the FCC's decision in December to reverse

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Speaker 1: the decision classifying broadband Internet as a public utility. That

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Speaker 1: one was made back in. This is gonna be the

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Speaker 1: result of lots of lawsuits and arguments in Congress. I

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Speaker 1: think ultimately Congress is going to take a look at

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Speaker 1: the ground swell of support in the United States among

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Speaker 1: citizens to maintain that neutrality, to keep those rules in place. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and we'll say, hey, we can't really risk going against

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Speaker 1: the will of the people without putting ourselves in danger.

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Speaker 1: Right now, if you are in Congress, you're probably looking

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Speaker 1: at your position as being on shaky ground at best,

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Speaker 1: because things are very tumultuous in United States politics, and

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Speaker 1: as a result, even if you don't necessarily side with

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Speaker 1: the net neutrality argument, your constituency might and that would

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Speaker 1: mean that you have a vested interest in making sure

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Speaker 1: that you kind of support it so that you don't

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Speaker 1: have an angry mob of constituents at home who then

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Speaker 1: will vote your butt out of office the next time

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Speaker 1: a vote comes around. That might be an overly optimistic

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Speaker 1: view of what is going to happen. But I suspect

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Speaker 1: that we're going to see this decision from the f

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Speaker 1: c C blocked in some way in and again. It

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Speaker 1: may come from the courts, or it may come from Congress,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think we're going to get through with

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Speaker 1: those new considerations in place. Um. The FCC argues, by

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Speaker 1: the way, that net neutrality will still be a thing,

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Speaker 1: it's just it won't be an official regulation. The government

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Speaker 1: won't be enforcing net neutrality, but the internet service providers

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Speaker 1: will maintain net new trality out of self interest. That

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Speaker 1: might possibly be true if in the United States we

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Speaker 1: had a true free market with internet service providers. If

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Speaker 1: you had multiple choices for an I s P within

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Speaker 1: your market, then you could argue, all right, well, net

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Speaker 1: neutrality isn't protected. But if one company decides to act

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Speaker 1: in a way that is contrary to net neutrality, I

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Speaker 1: could just stop my service with them and go to

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Speaker 1: a competitor. But that's not the way it works in

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Speaker 1: the United States. Most regions in the US that have

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Speaker 1: broadband access have at most two I s p s

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Speaker 1: to choose from, and most of them only have one.

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Speaker 1: So if you only have one choice, there's nowhere else

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Speaker 1: to go. So the argument that the free market will

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Speaker 1: maintain net neutrality to me seems disingenuous because there's not

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Speaker 1: really a free market in the I s P business

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Speaker 1: in the United States. So I suspect that ultimately this

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Speaker 1: is gonna get overturned. Prediction number six. By the end

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Speaker 1: of two thousand eighteen, the percentage of cord cutters in

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Speaker 1: the US will be such that will see thirty million

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Speaker 1: people cutting the cord. Total. Now, in seventeen, that number

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Speaker 1: was at twenty two point two million. We had twenty

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Speaker 1: two point two million chord cutters by seventeen. That's not

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Speaker 1: throughout the year, but in total that was up from

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Speaker 1: sixteen point seven million in twenty sixteen. So I think

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Speaker 1: that trend is not just going to continue. I think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna pick up a little more speed. So it

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Speaker 1: they gained a little bit more than five and a

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Speaker 1: half million cord cutters in twenty seventeen, I think we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go closer to seven point eight million in eighteen.

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Speaker 1: So that's gonna knock us up to thirty million total.

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Speaker 1: Thirty million people who have cut the chord and they

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Speaker 1: no longer subscribe to traditional cable or satellite television. They

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Speaker 1: will they might subscribe to a virtual subscription on a

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Speaker 1: smart TV or a console or some other solution, but

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Speaker 1: they will abandon the traditional satellite or cable option. That's

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Speaker 1: my prediction for cutting the chord, and that the never chords.

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Speaker 1: Those are people who are of adult age who have

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Speaker 1: never paid for traditional cable or satellite. That number is

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Speaker 1: going to go up to just because you're gonna have

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Speaker 1: more people reach the age of eighteen who still have

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Speaker 1: never done that and don't have any plans to do it,

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Speaker 1: So that number is going to keep going up too,

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Speaker 1: just as a result of younger generations reaching the age

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Speaker 1: of maturity and not having ever bought a cable or

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Speaker 1: satellite package for television. But we're also going to see

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Speaker 1: more and more households that have been doing that cut

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Speaker 1: those ties, and that, as a result, is also going

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Speaker 1: to have massive applications across the entertainment industry because you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see advertising react as a result of that. If

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Speaker 1: you have fewer people watching your ads, then those ads

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Speaker 1: have less value and that's going to have this ripple

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Speaker 1: effect throughout the industry and it will be really interesting

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Speaker 1: to see where things go from there. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be massively disruptive by the end of

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Speaker 1: but it's going to continue this trend of disruption that

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Speaker 1: I imagine we'll see hit its peak and maybe another

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Speaker 1: four or five years and uh, at that point, who

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Speaker 1: knows what will come next, but I think the landscape

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Speaker 1: will be drastically different. Well, I've got a lot more

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Speaker 1: predictions about ten coming up, but first let's take a

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Speaker 1: quick break to thank our sponsor. All Right, we're up

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Speaker 1: to prediction number seven. There will be at least one

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Speaker 1: and probably more than one security breaches on the scale

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Speaker 1: of the Equifax breach. In because while we pay a

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Speaker 1: lot of lip service towards security. It's way easier to

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Speaker 1: talk about being secure than to actually take the steps

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Speaker 1: and make sure we are are doing it. And plus

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Speaker 1: we're human beings and we're wacky you, So this, I

250
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Speaker 1: think is a gimme. I would be shocked if we

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Speaker 1: get through without another massive security breach making the news.

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Speaker 1: It maybe that it's a breach that a company tries

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Speaker 1: to cover up. That seems to be the m O

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Speaker 1: for a lot of companies. It never works out well

255
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Speaker 1: for them. It always eventually will find its way to

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Speaker 1: the public, and then it's way worse at that point.

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Speaker 1: Equifax is a great example. The The initial UH vulnerability

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Speaker 1: was found in March. The earliest evidence of an attack

259
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Speaker 1: was found in May, and no one talked about until September,

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Speaker 1: and by more than a hundred and thirty million accounts

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Speaker 1: had been breached and accessed and potentially all that personal

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Speaker 1: data is now compromised. So I suspect we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: something along those lines again. Don't know who will be

264
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Speaker 1: the target, could be anybody, don't know what vulnerability they'll use,

265
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Speaker 1: could be anything, but just from the fact that no

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Speaker 1: one ever seems to really get their head around how

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Speaker 1: to practice good security tells me that this is going

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Speaker 1: to happen. In the case with Equifax, the company was

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Speaker 1: even aware of the vulnerability before the first attack apparently happened,

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Speaker 1: but failed to act to solve that. Despite the fact

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Speaker 1: that the company has a policy of fixing such problems

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Speaker 1: within forty eight hours of discovering them. That just didn't happen.

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Speaker 1: With the Equifax data breach, I suspect we're going to

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Speaker 1: see something along those lines. I'd rather not. I I

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Speaker 1: have been personally affected by some of these. The Yahoo breach,

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Speaker 1: the Equifax breach. It's all gonna happen again, though. Uh,

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Speaker 1: just because there's no such thing as a perfect secure system,

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Speaker 1: and there's way too many examples of companies that just

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Speaker 1: don't take the right steps to address vulnerabilities once they

280
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Speaker 1: are found. They drag their feet because fixing problems is

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Speaker 1: expensive and it takes time and it takes energy away

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Speaker 1: from doing business. But if you don't do it, the

283
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Speaker 1: amount you're going to have to spend in order to

284
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Speaker 1: correct the problems that will happen will dwarf anything you

285
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Speaker 1: would have spent just fixing the problem in the first place.

286
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Speaker 1: So I would love to be proven wrong on this,

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Speaker 1: hopefully December, I'll say, wow, we got through without any

288
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Speaker 1: major breaches. I would love to be proven wrong. I

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Speaker 1: just don't think it's gonna happen. Prediction number eight. Apple

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Speaker 1: next iPhone, which I'm betting will not have a number

291
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Speaker 1: associated with it. So it's not going to be the

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Speaker 1: iPhone eleven. It will be called something else, maybe just

293
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Speaker 1: the iPhone It will be an incremental upgrade to iPhone ten.

294
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Speaker 1: So it's not gonna be some sort of massive evolution

295
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Speaker 1: of the iPhone ten. Now, Johnny, i'ves Sir Johnny Eyes

296
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Speaker 1: has once again taken the helm of design over at Apple.

297
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Speaker 1: He's personally involved. However, I don't think his influence is

298
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Speaker 1: likely going to be seen that much in the products

299
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Speaker 1: that come out next year. I don't think that's going

300
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Speaker 1: to really be a major component for another generation or so,

301
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Speaker 1: because it takes more than a year of work to

302
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Speaker 1: produce these products. So the next iPhone, the iPhone whatever

303
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Speaker 1: it will be called, but I don't think it will

304
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Speaker 1: be called the iPhone eleven, is already well in the

305
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,640
Speaker 1: development stage at this point. It's got to be because

306
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 1: by the time September rolls around, it has to be

307
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 1: ready to go to manufacturing plants and be produced in

308
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: large numbers. That means that it already has to be

309
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: well along the development cycle. That being, and since Johnny

310
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Speaker 1: I've just came back over into the design section and

311
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 1: got really hands on with everything, I think that means

312
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Speaker 1: we will not see a direct evidence of his involvement

313
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Speaker 1: of his influence, at least not beyond what we see

314
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Speaker 1: in Apple products in general. Uh, this next generation is

315
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Speaker 1: going to take another generation before that happens. Prediction number nine.

316
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Speaker 1: We're gonna see a rise in cord cutting, which will

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Speaker 1: have a big effect on advertising, but we'll also see

318
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Speaker 1: a rise in ad blocking online. We're gonna see more

319
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Speaker 1: and more people installing ad blockers and developing ad blockers.

320
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Speaker 1: This is going to encourage more sites to use ad

321
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Speaker 1: blocker detectors. If you've we use an ad blocker and

322
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Speaker 1: you've gone to one of those sites, you've probably seen

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Speaker 1: a pop up up here and saying, hey, we see

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Speaker 1: you're using an ad blocker. Please don't do that. If

325
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Speaker 1: you want to look at our stuff, white list our

326
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Speaker 1: sites so that we can make money. Sometimes you can't

327
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Speaker 1: even view the original content until you have white listed them.

328
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Speaker 1: Or pause your ad blocker, whatever it may be. This

329
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Speaker 1: is likely going to inspire more people to file lawsuits

330
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Speaker 1: against such practices. There's an argument going on that says

331
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Speaker 1: it's a violation of privacy for a web page or

332
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Speaker 1: a website to look into what your browser has in

333
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 1: order to serve you up this information of Oh, I

334
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 1: see your using an ad blocker. They said, well, that's

335
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 1: a violation of privacy because you're staring at what I'm

336
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Speaker 1: using on my computer and I didn't give you permission

337
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Speaker 1: to do that. This is still unraveling as I record

338
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Speaker 1: this podcast, so we're probably gonna see that continue in.

339
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Speaker 1: It's gonna be a big mess, and this is going

340
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 1: to bring the question everyone is worried about closer to

341
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,959
Speaker 1: the foreground. It's going to bring this question up that

342
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: people are going to have to grapple with, which is

343
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Speaker 1: how do you make money creating content on the Internet

344
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Speaker 1: in a way that does not alienate your customers. I

345
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 1: have a vested interest in this question. This podcast is

346
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: ad supported. Without those ads, there's no revenue. Without revenue,

347
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 1: we I don't get paid, we don't have a space

348
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 1: to record in, we don't have money to host these podcasts.

349
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Speaker 1: These podcasts stop getting recorded, the company goes away. That's

350
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 1: our source of revenue. So we want to be able

351
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Speaker 1: to do this. I love my job, I love doing

352
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Speaker 1: what I do, but I can't just do it for free.

353
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Speaker 1: I don't get paid in songs and sandwiches. I can't

354
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Speaker 1: pay my rent with any sort of good will from

355
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 1: you listeners. I need I need cash money you. It's

356
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: a hard knock life out there, So we as creators

357
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: have a responsibility to come up with ways that allow

358
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Speaker 1: us to make money uh off of our ideas and

359
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 1: do it in such a way that is not too

360
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: intrusive or irritating or otherwise off putting. That's our responsibility.

361
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Speaker 1: It's also the responsibility of the advertisers to come up

362
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 1: with methods that are effective, that give you the information

363
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 1: you need to act upon those advertisements so that this

364
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 1: whole cycle works. If it doesn't, then obviously something's broken

365
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: and eventually the system collapses. Well, this is true across

366
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Speaker 1: the entire web. It's not just podcasts, but on regular websites.

367
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Speaker 1: And I look, I'm a web user. I find ads

368
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Speaker 1: really really irritating as well. I was using a browser

369
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: to look at content the other day, I did not

370
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: have an ad blocker in place. I'm reading an article.

371
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,119
Speaker 1: A paragraph and a half down into the article, I

372
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 1: get an enormous full screen overlay of an ad playing music,

373
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: completely obscuring the article I was trying to read. That

374
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 1: is obnoxious. Nobody wants that, And it's that sort of

375
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,239
Speaker 1: stuff that continues the argument, Hey, I want to use

376
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: an ad blocker because otherwise my experience is terrible. That's

377
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: a valid argument to make. But on the other hand,

378
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: if you don't have the ads, you can't pay to

379
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 1: have that content, you can't create the content. You're not

380
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: gonna do it for free. So we're gonna see this

381
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: really kind of become a battleground in this This is

382
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: gonna be the the lead. We got to sit down

383
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: and fix this because it's broken right now and nobody

384
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: is coming out a winner. We want to have something

385
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: that is giving value to our customers, is giving value

386
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,959
Speaker 1: to the advertisers, and that allows us to make the

387
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 1: stuff we want to make. I don't have the answer

388
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Speaker 1: to what that is. By the way, I am a

389
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 1: lowly content creator. I know what I hate. I hate

390
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 1: I hate really obnoxious ads. I don't hate all ads.

391
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 1: Some ads I find either entertaining or helpful. A lot

392
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: of ads that are based on my browsing behavior I

393
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 1: actually kind of like because I end up seeing stuff

394
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 1: that I'm interested in but I might not have ever

395
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 1: known about. So those I actually enjoy. But uh, and

396
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: I have. I've clicked on those ads and bought stuff

397
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: that way. But you've got to be really careful how

398
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 1: you do that too, because obviously if you do too

399
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: much of that, it becomes kind of creepy, right. It

400
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: feels like someone spying on you and getting to know

401
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: everything you like, and that doesn't feel great either. So

402
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,959
Speaker 1: there's definitely some sort of line we need to figure

403
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 1: out to follow as an industry and hopefully come out

404
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: with a solution that works for everybody, because otherwise we're

405
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: just going to continuously have this battle where people create

406
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 1: different types of ad blockers just to ignore ads entirely,

407
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 1: and ultimately that's going to lead to an entire industry

408
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: crumbling in on itself because it can't support itself anymore.

409
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: The advertisers will pull out because they're saying, no one's

410
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 1: seeing our ads in the first place, and then no

411
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: money comes in, and then without money, you can't run

412
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: a business, or so I'm told. I don't know. I

413
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: still buy everything on the barter system. Three walking birds

414
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: to the Wooden Nickel. I say, prediction number ten. We're

415
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: heading toward a subscription service crash and which will see

416
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,199
Speaker 1: such a saturation in the market for subscription based entertainment services.

417
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: I'm talking about stuff like Netflix and Hulu and Amazon

418
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,199
Speaker 1: Video and all the others that are coming out. There

419
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: will be a general backlash, and I think we'll get

420
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: through before all of this kind of shakes out, but

421
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: things will start to heat up towards the end of

422
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 1: with more consumers getting disenchanted with how many different competing

423
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: services there are and what they're expected to do in

424
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 1: order to get all the content they want. So by

425
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: the end of I expect there's gonna be all these

426
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 1: different articles about here's the list of services I have

427
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 1: to subscribe to if I want to be able to

428
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: watch the things I would be able to see if

429
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: I still use pay TV, right, because that was the

430
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: that was the beauty of this Originally, everyone was thinking, Hey,

431
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: when we get to this world, I'll be able to

432
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 1: subscribe to just the things I want. I won't be

433
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: subscribing to a cable package where I get four dred channels,

434
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: of which I will watch three, and on those three channels,

435
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 1: I'm maybe watching five shows total, So I'm paying all

436
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: this money for five shows. Wouldn't it be great if

437
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: I had a service where I could just pay for

438
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 1: those five shows and not anything else and save money

439
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: and frustration. Except what we're getting is all these different

440
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 1: subscription services that sort of approximate that pay TV model

441
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: with massive gaps in every single service. Every service has

442
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 1: gaps that other services kind of fill in, and then

443
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: you think, well, for me to get the experience I

444
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,400
Speaker 1: want to have to subscribe to eight different services, I'm

445
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: not saving any money, and it's just frustrating as a consumer.

446
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: I think by the end of we're going to see

447
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,199
Speaker 1: that frustration build to a high point. And in twenty nineteen,

448
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: I would argue we're gonna start seeing some of those

449
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: subscription services phase out because people will just start to

450
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 1: object with their wallets. Prediction number eleven. By the end

451
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: of eighteen, we will reach the point in America where

452
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: more retail dollars will be spent online than in physical

453
00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: brick and mortar stores. So there's gonna be the act

454
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 1: foul tipping point where online revenues overall are going to

455
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: be higher than traditional stores. Now we haven't hit that

456
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: point yet, but will be that tipping point, and there

457
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: will be no going back after we hit that. Now,

458
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: that does not mean I suspect we'll see tons of

459
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: real places shut down in ten. We're gonna see some.

460
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 1: We've already seen several stores kind of go belly up

461
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 1: over the last few years. That's going to continue in

462
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, but I don't think it's going to be massive.

463
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: I don't think this is where we see the general

464
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: stores just turning upside down throughout the course of the year.

465
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: The trend will continue, but it will be I think

466
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: another decade before this effect really starts to impact stores

467
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: in a way that causes massive closures, which obviously leads

468
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: to lots of other problems. You have entire towns or

469
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: city centers that will be essentially vacant because the stores

470
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: that would have occupied those spaces will no longer have

471
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: the revenues to support themselves. They'll they'll go bankrupt, they'll

472
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: go out of business, and so further down the road,

473
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: we're gonna have this issue with what do we do

474
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: with all that that real estate? What happens to all

475
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: those spaces? I mean, we may be getting all of

476
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: our stuff online, what happens to those physical locations that

477
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 1: used to have stores in them? And I'm sure we'll

478
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: come up with different solutions to that problem. I'm sure

479
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: different cities will try different approaches. Some may reclaim that

480
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: real estate and turn it into something else, whether it's residential,

481
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: They may re zone to residential neighborhoods, they may turn

482
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: them into public spaces. Um maybe you we'll just see

483
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of Pok restaurants opening up everywhere, which

484
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: I'm totally cool with. I love Pok. So now that's

485
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 1: the way things are going. If I can't walk three

486
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: blocks without running into fifteen Pok places, hey fine by me.

487
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: Prediction number twelve. Google will start to roll out WiFi

488
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: based internet services to some cities, similar to how it

489
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: rolled out fiber, but with the goal of having faster deployment.

490
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: Because here in Atlanta, Google Fiber has been a thing

491
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: on the way for like four years. They still haven't

492
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: laid fiber in my neighborhood, and to be fair, they've

493
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: backed off on a lot of the places where they

494
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 1: said they were going to deploy, but Atlanta was one

495
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: of those where they had already made the commitment and

496
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 1: just hasn't rolled out very quickly. It's not entirely the

497
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: company's fault. They've encountered resistance everywhere you turn. So I

498
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 1: think they're gonna try and switch to a wireless approach,

499
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: a gig a bit wireless approach, um. But I imagine

500
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 1: there're still going to encounter some similar issues, mostly involving

501
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 1: where they can set up transmitter towers, because that's a

502
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: big thing, even in Atlanta. Now you've you'll see different

503
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 1: areas in Atlanta opposing the construction of a new cell tower,

504
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 1: for example. Um. But I don't think it's going to

505
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 1: be nearly as tough as it was to get clearance

506
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 1: for stuff like utility whole access. That was a crazy

507
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 1: battle Google had to fight over and over and over again,

508
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,479
Speaker 1: and largely did so I think as a way of

509
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: setting a precedent for other companies. I don't think Google's

510
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: intention was to really become a massive Internet service provider

511
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: across multiple cities in the United States. I think it

512
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 1: was more about, let's set some rules that other companies

513
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: can follow in the future to make this a more

514
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: competitive space. It just hasn't really happened because, as it

515
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: turns out, if you want to be an I s

516
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 1: P you need a whole lot of money to get

517
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: into that game, and most companies just don't have that

518
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: kind of capital. So it ends up being the game

519
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: of a few major UH companies in most regions. If

520
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: you're lucky, you have a few. Most of us only

521
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: have one or maybe two. All right, I've got a

522
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 1: few more predictions, but before I jump into those, let's

523
00:32:53,000 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: take another quick break and thank our sponsor. Prediction number thirteen.

524
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 1: By the end of automation will have eliminated more jobs

525
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: than it creates. Now, that's not necessarily the endgame. I

526
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: do think automation is going to create more jobs along

527
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 1: the way, and maybe ultimately we'll see things even out

528
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 1: or even see automation create more jobs than it displaces.

529
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 1: But I think, in which I view as the short

530
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: term of this journey, we're going to be hard strapped

531
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: to make more jobs than it displaces. I think it's

532
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: gonna be pretty bleak for a lot of people, and

533
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 1: not just in the blue collar industries. I think in

534
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 1: the white color industries. We're gonna see a lot of

535
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: of bots and AI programs and algorithms replace what traditionally

536
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 1: would go to people, you know, like human people being things.

537
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 1: They're going to be out of a job. It's gonna

538
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 1: be rough. It is not good, uh, at least not

539
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: in the short term, especially not for those people. It

540
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: might be good for the companies and that it could

541
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: help them cut some of their costs and thus improve profits.

542
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: But while that's good for a very few people, it's

543
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 1: bad for a whole bunch of others. So I don't

544
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: want that to happen. I'd like to be proven wrong

545
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 1: on this one, but I suspect, at least in the

546
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 1: short term, that's what's going to be. Like Now, maybe

547
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: we will find creative ways to make new jobs for

548
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: those people and find ways to train them for those

549
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: new jobs. That seems to be like the optimist approach

550
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: to this view of the future, the idea that robots

551
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: and other forms of automation we'll just take over jobs

552
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 1: that are difficult, deadly, dangerous, or dull, and we humans

553
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 1: will be freed up to do wonderful other jobs that

554
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 1: are much more rewarding and less dangerous and less um

555
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: you know, less mind numbingly dull. But we have to

556
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 1: create those jobs, and we have to figure out how

557
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: to make sure people can do those jobs. If it's

558
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: someone who was doing menial labor and they suddenly are

559
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 1: being put into a position that is asking much more

560
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: of them, we have to be sure that we give

561
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 1: them the tools they need in order to do that job,

562
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: which includes training and education. I'm not convinced that we

563
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: have put those those uh pieces in place. I think

564
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: we're doing the automation before we've got the tools to

565
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 1: help people affected by the automation to do something else,

566
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 1: and it feels very reactionary to me. So maybe I'm

567
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: a pessimist in that sense. Maybe there actually are far

568
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: more tools than I'm giving it credit for. But I

569
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 1: feel a lot of empathy for people who are displaced,

570
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 1: whether it's through automation or some other corporate maneuver, and

571
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: I often feel that any sort of solution that we

572
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 1: create for those folks tends to come after a big

573
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: wave has already affected a bunch of people, and that

574
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: just means that people are suffering during that time. I

575
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 1: hate that, uh, But then I'm very squishy person less

576
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 1: squishy than I was a year ago, but that's due

577
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: to weight loss prediction number fourteen. The trend that started,

578
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 1: I would argue, really got started in of women stepping

579
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 1: forward to reveal how they had been mistreated, abused, or worse,

580
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 1: will sadly continue in now. I say sadly not to

581
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 1: suggest that these women shouldn't come forward. They absolutely should. Rather,

582
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: I say sadly because I suspect the problems women have

583
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: experienced are deeply ingrained in our society in general and

584
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: the tech world in particular. So I expect we're going

585
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: to see a dozen or more major stories about harassment

586
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 1: or worse in the technosphere in twenty eighteen. Now. My

587
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: hope is that through these stories, we can shake things

588
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: out to make a better environment for everyone moving forward.

589
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: In other words, I'm not sad about people getting called

590
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 1: out on bad behavior. I think it's necessary. I think

591
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: we have to have this reckoning, as some people call it,

592
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 1: so that we can get rid of some rotten foundation

593
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 1: and build a better future for everybody. And I'll go

594
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 1: further with this argument. I think it's important because it

595
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 1: means for very long time, and women know this, and

596
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 1: minorities know this people who are like me, who are

597
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: straight white males. It's it's easy to ignore this. There

598
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 1: are voices that have gone unheard for way too long,

599
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 1: and those voices have value, and they can make contributions

600
00:37:54,840 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: that can change our world in phenomenal, meaningful ways if

601
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:05,839
Speaker 1: we listen to them. But we haven't traditionally, with a

602
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,439
Speaker 1: few major exceptions, and I would love to see those

603
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: exceptions just become the rule so that we as a

604
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 1: whole benefit. It's not just women are doing better in

605
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 1: the in technology, or minorities are are more represented in

606
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: various fields. It's we all get to benefit from the

607
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 1: genius that various people possess, regardless of their gender, or

608
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 1: sexual orientation, or ethnicity or any of those other things.

609
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 1: Because ultimately, the way I view the past, where we

610
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: have not listened to people very much, we being my

611
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: fellow straight white male dudes, uh, means that we missed

612
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: out on a ton of stuff that we could have

613
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 1: really used. Um well, we there's no telling how many

614
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: amazing ideas were never are brought forward because no one

615
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: was listening. I want to see that change. That means

616
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 1: that in the short term, we're going to have a

617
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 1: really Rocky Rocky Road and not the ice cream. We're

618
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 1: gonna have lots of major upsets, and I think it's

619
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: necessary for us to get to where we need to be. Um,

620
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be pretty, but it's going to be necessary.

621
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: Prediction number fifteen. Star Citizen, the video game that has

622
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 1: been in development since two twelve, will not emerge from

623
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 1: beta in it seems like it's the safest bet ever,

624
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 1: so if you don't If you're not familiar with Star Citizen,

625
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: it is a game that started going under development in

626
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 1: two thousand eleven. A kickstarter in two thousand twelve raised

627
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: a good amount of money, and since then the total

628
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 1: amount of money raised to develop this game is somewhere

629
00:39:54,719 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 1: around a hundred and seventy million dollars a team. The

630
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 1: game still hasn't come out. It's still in alpha various

631
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 1: stages of the game or in alpha. Because there's no

632
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: full game in alpha that's available at all, there are

633
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 1: various parts of the game available in alpha. The game

634
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: itself is supposed to be a persistent science fiction game

635
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 1: where you can have your own spaceship. You can actually

636
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 1: purchase spaceships with real money. You can spend real world

637
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 1: money to buy a spaceship in the game. Different spaceships

638
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 1: cost different amounts, and then you can tool around space.

639
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: And there's all this other stuff that will potentially be

640
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 1: in the final game, but because there is no final

641
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 1: game yet, we haven't actually seen it happen. There's been

642
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: some really cool stuff incorporated into the alpha, like a

643
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 1: real time facial capture technology that allows you to have, uh,

644
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: your character have the same facial expressions you have. Your

645
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 1: webcam picks up your facial expressions and transmits them to

646
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: your character's face, which I understand is a supremely creepy

647
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: thing to see in person, but it's kind of a

648
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: cool technology, but it's it's one part of an overall

649
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 1: game that doesn't really exist yet. I say that by

650
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: two thousand eight teen's end, it still will not be

651
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 1: out of beta. In fact, I'll be amazed if it's

652
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 1: in beta and not just still in various stages of alpha.

653
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,919
Speaker 1: But there's no way I think that that game comes

654
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: out in which is unfortunate for people who have been

655
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:31,319
Speaker 1: waiting for so long. Prediction number sixteen. There will be

656
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 1: a bitcoin value crash in two thousand eighteen, but the

657
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 1: cryptocurrency will recover at least to the point where it

658
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 1: returns to at least ten thousand dollars per bitcoin. It

659
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 1: hit that in November two thousand seventeen. It's skyrocketed and

660
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:49,399
Speaker 1: then dipped in value, and it's fluctuated quite a bit

661
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 1: since November two thousand seventeen. Sometimes in two thousand eighteen,

662
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,280
Speaker 1: I think this value is going to drop significantly, talking

663
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 1: like down to five thousand dollars per coin or less.

664
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 1: But I think it's going to recover and grow back

665
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: to at least ten thousand, maybe eleven thousand dollars per

666
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 1: coin by the end of two thousand eighteen, maybe more

667
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 1: than that. But I do think there's gonna be uh

668
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 1: what they call a market correction or what other people

669
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 1: would call a massive crash and value. Uh that's just

670
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: my prediction. Now, by the end of two thousand eighteen,

671
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 1: it may turn out that there was no crash at

672
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 1: all and the bitcoin value just kept going up. That's

673
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 1: why I'm making this prediction specific, so that way, at

674
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: the end of the year, I can take a look

675
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: at the value of bitcoin and I can say, oh,

676
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 1: I got it right, or no, I got it totally wrong.

677
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 1: Prediction number seventeen. We're gonna see a big, serious push

678
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: in podcasting in two thousand eighteen. It's really going to

679
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 1: become a massively major form of media in twenty eighteen.

680
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: This is fueled from huge successes like S Town and

681
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: the serial series, as well as some of the old

682
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 1: standards that have been around for years, like Cough stuff

683
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 1: you should know Cough. Expect to see a flood of

684
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 1: new shows. Some of them are gonna be limited series

685
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 1: with a set number of episodes, stuff like Cereal and

686
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 1: S Town, where it's a season you get maybe six

687
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: or eight or ten or twelve episodes and that's it.

688
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: Others are going to be more open ended, and we'll

689
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 1: publish until people stop listening or the host decided to

690
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 1: do something else. But we're gonna see more development of

691
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,720
Speaker 1: programming in this space, similar to what you might see

692
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 1: in television or radio. That's gonna be a big, big

693
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: thing in and U. That's kind of insider baseball. I think,

694
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 1: all right, I got one last prediction. I thought I

695
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: had seventeen, but I have eighteen. Final prediction is we're

696
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 1: gonna have more bots, either voice activated assistants or having

697
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 1: those voice activated assistants incorporated into more technologies. We're gonna

698
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 1: have more automated customer service representatives and other implementations of bots.

699
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 1: Just more bots that we interact with on a on

700
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 1: a social level, whether that's through some sort of exchange

701
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 1: where we're trying to buy something or get some customer

702
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 1: service or whatever, or we're trying to interact with it

703
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 1: in order to control the technology around us, whatever it

704
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: may be. We're gonna see a whole lot more of

705
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 1: that in two thousand eighteen. We're gonna see a growth

706
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: in the use of bots as a point of service.

707
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 1: I think that's a real area of development. If you

708
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 1: are in computer science and you're looking at different areas

709
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 1: that you might want to explore, working to create better,

710
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 1: more adept, more useful bots. That's a growth industry right now.

711
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna be a growth industry

712
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: for more than maybe five or ten years, but for

713
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: right now, it's really a valuable space. And that's it.

714
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: Those are my eighteen predictions for two thousand eighteen. Hey,

715
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 1: that worked out and didn't plan on. That just happened.

716
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: So a year from now I will revisit these and

717
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: see if I was you know, on target or if

718
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: I was way off base. And I'm sure there are

719
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: going to be things that happen in eighteen that will

720
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: dwarf all of these predictions. It's going and it's going

721
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: to seem obvious in hindsight. I'm gonna say, why didn't

722
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: I predict that Elon Musk would turn into a light

723
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: being from Alpha Centauri and rule us from his base

724
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 1: on the Moon. I don't. It was so obvious that

725
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 1: might happen, but I didn't predict it. Here. If it

726
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 1: does happen, I'm totally calling that a prediction, by the way,

727
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 1: because that would be amazing. I look forward to two

728
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 1: thousand eighteen with you, guys. Thank you so much for

729
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: being with me on this journey through two thousand seventeen.

730
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 1: I hope that we continue to explore technology together in

731
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 1: all its forms, and I welcome you to write to

732
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 1: me let me know what you would like me to cover.

733
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 1: Maybe there's a particular technology that interests you that you

734
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 1: want me to talk about, or maybe there's a company

735
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 1: you've always wanted to know the inside story about, or

736
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: a person that you think is instrumental in technology that

737
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 1: I should profile. Maybe there's someone you would like to

738
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 1: be a guest on the show. I would love to

739
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 1: hear from you. Email me the address for our website. Well,

740
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 1: website our podcast is tech Stuff at how stuffworks dot com.

741
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: You can contact me on Facebook or Twitter. The handle

742
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 1: of both of those is tech stuff hs W. We

743
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 1: also have an Instagram account. Follow that give us some

744
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 1: love over there. And remember I record on Wednesdays and Fridays,

745
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:42,879
Speaker 1: and I live stream my recording sessions. You can check

746
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 1: that out at twitch dot tv slash tech Stuff. Just

747
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: pop over there. You'll see where the schedule is. When

748
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 1: I record on Wednesdays and Fridays, you can join the

749
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 1: chat room and you can watch as I stumble my

750
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: way through the world of technology. And that's it. Happy

751
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 1: New Year. I'll see you guys in two thousand eighteen

752
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 1: really soon. For more on this and thousands of other topics,

753
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 1: is a how staff works dot com