WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Randy Kroszner, Kate Moore, & Michael Nathanson

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea on an Apple podcast it's a six

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<v Speaker 2>minute extravaganza, sometimes five, sometimes seven minutes. Today it could

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<v Speaker 2>be fifteen minutes. We'd bore you to death, but we

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<v Speaker 2>thank you for choosing a single best idea where we

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<v Speaker 2>really focus on two voices. We had such a strong

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<v Speaker 2>morning that we're gonna give you a bonus today. Michael

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<v Speaker 2>Nathanson will come along here with piercing comments on the

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<v Speaker 2>Olympics coming up. We're making jokes about it, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>not funny. There's billions of dollars involved. You're going to

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<v Speaker 2>just be stunned at what Nathanson says. First, so on

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<v Speaker 2>CPI and how the Federal Reserve system will react to it.

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<v Speaker 2>A former governor of the Fed, Randall Krasner, he is

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<v Speaker 2>with at Chicago RAGU Rajin our leading financial economists there's

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<v Speaker 2>out of Brown University and go Wood, New Jersey, and

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<v Speaker 2>he's just absolutely definitive on the nuances. The path, an

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<v Speaker 2>old path is you just make it up as you go.

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<v Speaker 2>About thirty years ago, Alan Greenspan codified measured and that

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<v Speaker 2>you would get on a path and you'd stay on

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<v Speaker 2>a path in a measured way. Randy Krosner of the

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<v Speaker 2>Boost School Chicago on green spans measured, I don't.

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<v Speaker 3>Think they're going to do the measured pace.

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<v Speaker 4>I think there was pretty clear consensus even when I

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<v Speaker 4>was there, which is now a while ago, that measured

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<v Speaker 4>pace was not the best way to do things.

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<v Speaker 3>And so I think that they will move.

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<v Speaker 4>And you can see when they moved in place interest

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<v Speaker 4>rates up that was not at a measured pace. That

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<v Speaker 4>was pretty rapid. So I think they're gonna they'll bring

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<v Speaker 4>interest rates down. I think they'll bring them down somewhat

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<v Speaker 4>gradually at first, but if they see the libor market

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<v Speaker 4>really weakening, they'll start to move quickly. That'll be too

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<v Speaker 4>late to prevent the labor market from softenings substantially.

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<v Speaker 3>But they have to weigh the risks.

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<v Speaker 4>Of calling all clear too early, getting back into what

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<v Speaker 4>happened in the late seventies early eighties where they did

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<v Speaker 4>that and then inflation reignited and they had to raise

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<v Speaker 4>rates really high, had a really bad recession.

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<v Speaker 3>They'd rather wait a little bit, you.

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<v Speaker 4>Know, perhaps a little bit too long, to buy some

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<v Speaker 4>insurance against that upside inflation scenario.

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<v Speaker 3>But then they can cut and just have.

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<v Speaker 4>A slowdown, maybe a mild recession, but something that'd be

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<v Speaker 4>much less worse than what they had in the early.

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<v Speaker 2>Eighties, maybe a soft land. And there Randy Krassner, the

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<v Speaker 2>Booth School of Chicago, And of course what does all

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<v Speaker 2>this mean over the markets, Well, it meant price up,

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<v Speaker 2>yield down, the real yield. I watch carefully the inflation

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<v Speaker 2>adjust a ten year yield one measure of that idea,

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<v Speaker 2>and the real yield really broke below range the range

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<v Speaker 2>that I look at. The series I look at had

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<v Speaker 2>a bottom range of about one point ninety six percent,

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<v Speaker 2>and we plug ung below that down to one point

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<v Speaker 2>nine zero with a shock of a negative statistic on

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<v Speaker 2>one measure of CPI month over month, I think headline

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<v Speaker 2>CPI and it came back a little bit one point

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<v Speaker 2>ninety five percent, but we've decisively moved to the tippy

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<v Speaker 2>edge of the range or even lower in yield. That's

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<v Speaker 2>one of those ideas of disinflation. And then what it

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<v Speaker 2>means over to a market that just won't go down

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<v Speaker 2>Every afternoon. I watched the market take a bid at

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<v Speaker 2>two thirty PM, even more of a bid at three

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<v Speaker 2>point thirty. You look at the character of this bull market.

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<v Speaker 2>You try to look back at what the pros call

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<v Speaker 2>an analog, what was this bullmarket? Like Kate Moore of Blackrock.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't see a perfect analog right here. And I

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<v Speaker 5>know everyone wants to pick a period in history and

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<v Speaker 5>say it looks just like this, and it's a comfort.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, people like that comfort. But we are in

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<v Speaker 5>the midst of, I think a massive technological change here

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<v Speaker 5>with the advent of AI and as companies trying for

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<v Speaker 5>you out how to adopt AI and figure out the

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<v Speaker 5>use cases and what the best way to work with

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<v Speaker 5>this technology is, and I think that's going to lead

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<v Speaker 5>to these incredible bifurcation in the market. Companies that have

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<v Speaker 5>access to the technology have access to amazing data sets

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<v Speaker 5>and are using it appropriately, and those that don't. You're

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<v Speaker 5>starting to see that separation in earnings already. And I

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<v Speaker 5>just don't know that we, or at least in the

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<v Speaker 5>lifetime I've been in almost five decades, that we've seen

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<v Speaker 5>this significant of a technological change.

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<v Speaker 2>Kate Moore of black Rock. Huge debate there. Michael Darta

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<v Speaker 2>was really strong today and the idea of nominal GDP

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<v Speaker 2>is going to come down, and he's looking at some

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<v Speaker 2>serious recession tendencies within the market. He made very clear

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<v Speaker 2>this is a central bank fighting the last war. One

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<v Speaker 2>of the things we follow, and it's a real effort

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<v Speaker 2>at Paul Sweeney. As the entertainment business, the zaniness we

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<v Speaker 2>see in streaming, I don't know. I try to cancel

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<v Speaker 2>a streamer once every two weeks. I try to camp

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<v Speaker 2>so someone just as a good habit, and you try

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<v Speaker 2>to add up what you've got, but you don't know

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<v Speaker 2>what you're paying. Some of them they're like fifteen dollars

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<v Speaker 2>a month, but you can get it specially for six

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<v Speaker 2>dollars ninety five. It's a nuts business and the heart

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<v Speaker 2>of that is sports will make it. And Michael Nathanson

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<v Speaker 2>was on today of Moffatt Nathanson There absolutely definitive in entertainment.

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<v Speaker 2>They put out a twenty page report on cable TV

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<v Speaker 2>or cell phones or the entertainment the content that Michael follows,

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<v Speaker 2>everybody reads. It's hugely influential. And I set them up

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<v Speaker 2>with a question on the Olympics with NBC coming in

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<v Speaker 2>at one point two billion dollar large, everything's sold out.

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<v Speaker 2>It's all great. Da da da da da, And I

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<v Speaker 2>was thunderstruck at this guy with a lot of experience.

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Nathanson on the extravaganza in Paris.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the Olympic moment has passed us by.

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<v Speaker 3>I really do.

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<v Speaker 1>I think last time we talked with this previous Olympics

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<v Speaker 1>part of the problem is you don't know where to

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<v Speaker 1>find it. You know it's on Peacock and they've spread

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<v Speaker 1>it all out, and you know, sometimes the games are

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<v Speaker 1>in real time, so you know you're not in front

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<v Speaker 1>of the set or for your computer when things are happening.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, especially in European time zones, it's not ideal.

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<v Speaker 1>So I say to you, I'm more embarrassing Olympics and

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<v Speaker 1>other sports at this point in time.

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<v Speaker 2>Stunning from Michael Nathanson. That's single best idea for today. Again.

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<v Speaker 2>We're out on I was gonna say we're out on Netflix.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm thinking Nathan Si, No, folks, we're not out on Netflix.

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<v Speaker 2>I miss book. We're out on YouTube, which I think

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<v Speaker 2>is going to be bigger than Netflix based on what

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<v Speaker 2>the experts tell us. We're on YouTube. Go to your browser, Chrome, Google, whatever,

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<v Speaker 2>search YouTube, Bloomberg Podcasts, and then you subscribe and you

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<v Speaker 2>get everything from the Lisa Matteo Extravagance in La Tim

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<v Speaker 2>and Carroll in Seattle, all the other good conversations Alex

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<v Speaker 2>and Paul Sweeney Bloomberg Intelligence critically balance of power with

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<v Speaker 2>all that's going on in Washington on Apple car Play

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<v Speaker 2>on Android Auto as well, and from New York City

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<v Speaker 2>on a Little Bit Cooler Thursday on Apple Podcasts. It's

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<v Speaker 2>single best idea