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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea on an Apple podcast it's a six

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Speaker 2: minute extravaganza, sometimes five, sometimes seven minutes. Today it could

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Speaker 2: be fifteen minutes. We'd bore you to death, but we

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Speaker 2: thank you for choosing a single best idea where we

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Speaker 2: really focus on two voices. We had such a strong

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Speaker 2: morning that we're gonna give you a bonus today. Michael

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Speaker 2: Nathanson will come along here with piercing comments on the

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Speaker 2: Olympics coming up. We're making jokes about it, but it's

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Speaker 2: not funny. There's billions of dollars involved. You're going to

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Speaker 2: just be stunned at what Nathanson says. First, so on

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Speaker 2: CPI and how the Federal Reserve system will react to it.

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Speaker 2: A former governor of the Fed, Randall Krasner, he is

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Speaker 2: with at Chicago RAGU Rajin our leading financial economists there's

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Speaker 2: out of Brown University and go Wood, New Jersey, and

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Speaker 2: he's just absolutely definitive on the nuances. The path, an

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Speaker 2: old path is you just make it up as you go.

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Speaker 2: About thirty years ago, Alan Greenspan codified measured and that

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Speaker 2: you would get on a path and you'd stay on

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Speaker 2: a path in a measured way. Randy Krosner of the

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Speaker 2: Boost School Chicago on green spans measured, I don't.

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Speaker 3: Think they're going to do the measured pace.

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Speaker 4: I think there was pretty clear consensus even when I

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Speaker 4: was there, which is now a while ago, that measured

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Speaker 4: pace was not the best way to do things.

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Speaker 3: And so I think that they will move.

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Speaker 4: And you can see when they moved in place interest

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Speaker 4: rates up that was not at a measured pace. That

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Speaker 4: was pretty rapid. So I think they're gonna they'll bring

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Speaker 4: interest rates down. I think they'll bring them down somewhat

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Speaker 4: gradually at first, but if they see the libor market

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Speaker 4: really weakening, they'll start to move quickly. That'll be too

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Speaker 4: late to prevent the labor market from softenings substantially.

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Speaker 3: But they have to weigh the risks.

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Speaker 4: Of calling all clear too early, getting back into what

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Speaker 4: happened in the late seventies early eighties where they did

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Speaker 4: that and then inflation reignited and they had to raise

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Speaker 4: rates really high, had a really bad recession.

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Speaker 3: They'd rather wait a little bit, you.

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Speaker 4: Know, perhaps a little bit too long, to buy some

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Speaker 4: insurance against that upside inflation scenario.

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Speaker 3: But then they can cut and just have.

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Speaker 4: A slowdown, maybe a mild recession, but something that'd be

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Speaker 4: much less worse than what they had in the early.

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Speaker 2: Eighties, maybe a soft land. And there Randy Krassner, the

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Speaker 2: Booth School of Chicago, And of course what does all

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Speaker 2: this mean over the markets, Well, it meant price up,

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Speaker 2: yield down, the real yield. I watch carefully the inflation

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Speaker 2: adjust a ten year yield one measure of that idea,

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Speaker 2: and the real yield really broke below range the range

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Speaker 2: that I look at. The series I look at had

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Speaker 2: a bottom range of about one point ninety six percent,

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Speaker 2: and we plug ung below that down to one point

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Speaker 2: nine zero with a shock of a negative statistic on

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Speaker 2: one measure of CPI month over month, I think headline

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Speaker 2: CPI and it came back a little bit one point

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Speaker 2: ninety five percent, but we've decisively moved to the tippy

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Speaker 2: edge of the range or even lower in yield. That's

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Speaker 2: one of those ideas of disinflation. And then what it

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Speaker 2: means over to a market that just won't go down

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Speaker 2: Every afternoon. I watched the market take a bid at

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Speaker 2: two thirty PM, even more of a bid at three

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Speaker 2: point thirty. You look at the character of this bull market.

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Speaker 2: You try to look back at what the pros call

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Speaker 2: an analog, what was this bullmarket? Like Kate Moore of Blackrock.

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Speaker 5: I don't see a perfect analog right here. And I

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Speaker 5: know everyone wants to pick a period in history and

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Speaker 5: say it looks just like this, and it's a comfort.

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Speaker 5: You know, people like that comfort. But we are in

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Speaker 5: the midst of, I think a massive technological change here

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Speaker 5: with the advent of AI and as companies trying for

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Speaker 5: you out how to adopt AI and figure out the

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Speaker 5: use cases and what the best way to work with

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Speaker 5: this technology is, and I think that's going to lead

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Speaker 5: to these incredible bifurcation in the market. Companies that have

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Speaker 5: access to the technology have access to amazing data sets

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Speaker 5: and are using it appropriately, and those that don't. You're

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Speaker 5: starting to see that separation in earnings already. And I

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Speaker 5: just don't know that we, or at least in the

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Speaker 5: lifetime I've been in almost five decades, that we've seen

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Speaker 5: this significant of a technological change.

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Speaker 2: Kate Moore of black Rock. Huge debate there. Michael Darta

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Speaker 2: was really strong today and the idea of nominal GDP

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Speaker 2: is going to come down, and he's looking at some

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Speaker 2: serious recession tendencies within the market. He made very clear

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Speaker 2: this is a central bank fighting the last war. One

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Speaker 2: of the things we follow, and it's a real effort

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Speaker 2: at Paul Sweeney. As the entertainment business, the zaniness we

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Speaker 2: see in streaming, I don't know. I try to cancel

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Speaker 2: a streamer once every two weeks. I try to camp

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Speaker 2: so someone just as a good habit, and you try

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Speaker 2: to add up what you've got, but you don't know

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Speaker 2: what you're paying. Some of them they're like fifteen dollars

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Speaker 2: a month, but you can get it specially for six

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Speaker 2: dollars ninety five. It's a nuts business and the heart

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Speaker 2: of that is sports will make it. And Michael Nathanson

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Speaker 2: was on today of Moffatt Nathanson There absolutely definitive in entertainment.

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Speaker 2: They put out a twenty page report on cable TV

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Speaker 2: or cell phones or the entertainment the content that Michael follows,

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Speaker 2: everybody reads. It's hugely influential. And I set them up

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Speaker 2: with a question on the Olympics with NBC coming in

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Speaker 2: at one point two billion dollar large, everything's sold out.

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Speaker 2: It's all great. Da da da da da, And I

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Speaker 2: was thunderstruck at this guy with a lot of experience.

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Speaker 2: Michael Nathanson on the extravaganza in Paris.

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Speaker 1: I think the Olympic moment has passed us by.

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Speaker 3: I really do.

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Speaker 1: I think last time we talked with this previous Olympics

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Speaker 1: part of the problem is you don't know where to

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Speaker 1: find it. You know it's on Peacock and they've spread

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Speaker 1: it all out, and you know, sometimes the games are

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Speaker 1: in real time, so you know you're not in front

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Speaker 1: of the set or for your computer when things are happening.

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I think, especially in European time zones, it's not ideal.

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Speaker 1: So I say to you, I'm more embarrassing Olympics and

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Speaker 1: other sports at this point in time.

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Speaker 2: Stunning from Michael Nathanson. That's single best idea for today. Again.

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Speaker 2: We're out on I was gonna say we're out on Netflix.

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Speaker 2: I'm thinking Nathan Si, No, folks, we're not out on Netflix.

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Speaker 2: I miss book. We're out on YouTube, which I think

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Speaker 2: is going to be bigger than Netflix based on what

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Speaker 2: the experts tell us. We're on YouTube. Go to your browser, Chrome, Google, whatever,

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Speaker 2: search YouTube, Bloomberg Podcasts, and then you subscribe and you

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Speaker 2: get everything from the Lisa Matteo Extravagance in La Tim

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Speaker 2: and Carroll in Seattle, all the other good conversations Alex

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Speaker 2: and Paul Sweeney Bloomberg Intelligence critically balance of power with

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Speaker 2: all that's going on in Washington on Apple car Play

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Speaker 2: on Android Auto as well, and from New York City

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Speaker 2: on a Little Bit Cooler Thursday on Apple Podcasts. It's

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Speaker 2: single best idea