WEBVTT - Is the world prepared for the 'super' El Niño? 0:00:01.480 --> 0:00:05.680 More than fifty million people were killed between eighteen seventy 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:09.760 five and eighteen seventy eight. The period is now remembered 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.200 as the Great Famine, and one of the primary causes 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:17.880 behind the famine was a naturally occurring phenomenon called El Nino. 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.840 In fact, the eighteen seventy seven El Nino is the 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:27.280 strongest ever recorded. As of June, we have entered another 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:31.319 El Nino event, and scientists are expecting this one to 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:35.080 be very strong. Some call it a super El Nino, 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:40.920 or even a Godzilla El Nino. So are we better prepared? 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.880 In twenty twenty six? There are, after all, five times 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:48.080 as many people as in eighteen seventy seven, and the 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:52.519 planet is one point four degrees celsius orter. This is 0:00:52.640 --> 0:01:00.320 zero I am Akshatrati this week understanding a monster. Since 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:04.640 nineteen seventy our appetite four fossil fuels has been increasing 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:08.240 global average temperatures by about zero point two degrees celsius 0:01:08.400 --> 0:01:12.160 every decade. That is typically how much a single Al 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:16.319 Nino event raises global average temperatures by, and it does 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:20.160 so by releasing vast amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean. 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.760 So this El Ninio will not just cause disasters around 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:27.320 the world, but it will also give us a taste 0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:30.880 of what climate change could look like in twenty thirty 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:34.160 five if we continue to burn fossil fuels at the 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:38.480 same rate. To understand the al Ninia phenomenon, I'm joined 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:42.319 today by Ming Functing, Professor of Climate at Columbia University. 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:45.480 We talk about the science of al Nino, how prepared 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:48.960 the world is, and how scientists are responding to the 0:01:49.040 --> 0:02:01.280 increased political attacks on an overheating planet. Professor Main Functing, 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:02.280 Welcome to zero. 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:03.360 Thanks for having me. 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.720 So we are about to enter what people are calling 0:02:07.560 --> 0:02:11.080 a super el Nino. Before we start to talk about 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:14.079 the superpart, can you just woc us through the very 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.560 basics of what an el nino is. 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:22.399 El Nino is one of the most influential climate pattern 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:27.480 It the impacts not only the local region where it starts, 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:32.799 which is the tropical Pacific, but it also impacts regions 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:38.120 far from that region through something we call teleconnection, and 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:42.160 it can cause droughts in some parts of the world 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.959 and flooding in other parts, or you know, hurricanes and 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:52.160 other activities. So el Nino is a natural phenomena. And 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:55.280 to understand why only occurs, we have to start from 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.799 the normal state. So during the normal state of the 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:03.519 tropical Pacific, we have these steady trade winds that blows 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:09.400 from the east toward the west, which basically pushes warm 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:13.480 surface water that is exposed to the sunlight toward the 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:18.080 west and forming something we call the Pacific Western Pacific 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:23.040 warm pool. And the warm water there then fuels precipitation, 0:03:23.200 --> 0:03:26.520 the rainfall, you know, convection and rainfall that leads to 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.880 rainy climate in regions like you know Indonesia, you know, 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:35.880 Northern Australia, and relatively cool climate in the eastern part 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:40.760 of the Pacific like the coast of Peru. And it 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:44.880 also the cooling you know, the water walmart being moved away. 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:48.440 It also allows the deep, cold and rich water come 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.960 to the surface. That also helps the ecosystem there, allows 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:56.600 you know, fish to flourish in that region. Uh during 0:03:56.880 --> 0:04:01.600 a Nino, which is a disruption of normal cycle, and 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:05.040 what happens there is the wind tends to weaken, the 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:09.520 trade winds tend to weaken, and that allows the warm 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.440 water that is pushed toward the west to spread back 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:16.279 toward the east. Covering pretty much the majority of the 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:21.000 Tropical Pacific. The Tropical Pacific is a huge basin, so 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:24.560 that allows a lot of the heat from the surface 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:29.760 to be sent back to the atmosphere, increases the global 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:35.320 mean surface temperature and you know, causing convection changes that 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:40.480 alters the atmospheric circulation, which means high pressure low pressure 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:45.960 in different regions. So that then leads to anomalous climate 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:51.479 linked to surface temperature as well as precipitation, droughts, and 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:53.520 other other phenomena. 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:57.760 And the opposite happens in a La Ninia phase where 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.880 instead of the heat being released from the Pacific, more 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.080 heat is stored in the Pacific right. 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:06.760 Exactly, So there is an opposite phase of the Nino 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:11.000 site sudden we call it, and so Southern oscillation cycle. 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:15.279 And the opposite phase is the intensification of trade winds. 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:20.200 So the wind actually becomes a but normally strong that 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:22.480 pushes warm water further. 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:22.960 To the west. 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:27.960 That allows a warm warm to shrink, and that causes 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:32.040 more or less opposite kind of impact to a lot 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:35.800 of the global phenomena climate phenomena, but not exactly. You know, 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.799 there are some some asymmetriies between the two. 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:43.400 And just so we understand. Obviously, the Pacific Ocean is 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:48.039 the largest ocean by quite some distance, and when the 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:51.440 heat from the Pacific Ocean is released or absorbed in 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:55.680 these two phases, it has these global impacts because it 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:59.880 can make a big global difference to average temperatures. Right, 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:05.160 what is the range in which typically global average temperatures 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:09.200 increase or decrease during an Alninio versus in Coloninia? 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:11.000 Very good question. Yes. 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:15.480 One of the things Elnino does is that, as I mentioned, 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:18.480 that the surface water becomes warm across the type Pacific, 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.919 so that it allows more heat to be transferred from 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:27.440 the ocean toward the atmosphere through this warm surface water. 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.320 As you pointed out, it's Pacific, it's the largest ocean, 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:33.520 so once it's all covered by warm water, that is 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:38.920 a very big source of heat to the atmosphere, and 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:43.880 that actually increases the global mean surface temperature by the 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:48.080 order of something like point five degree across you know, 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.480 globally averaged. This is what happened in. 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:53.440 Some sense, pidegree celsius celsius. 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:58.040 Yes, half degree celsius. This is what happened in twenty three, 0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:02.280 twenty four. The most recent Nini. If you recall there 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:05.760 was this a spike in the global means offace temperature. 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:10.440 And now scientists are talking about a super el Nino. 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:17.720 What is this definition of weak normal, big super al nino? 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:19.600 How is it measured exactly? 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:25.080 The strength of the al nino is measured by what 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:31.280 we call nino indexes induses. There are multiple indices. We 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:35.360 basically average the surface temperature over a certain region of 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:41.400 the tropical Pacific where we get the largest anomaly. So 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:45.760 a normal nino is one that indexes above point five 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:50.000 degrees over a certain period of time, and a strong 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:54.160 al nino would be above one degree, and a super 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:58.520 al nino would be something like above two degrees celsius, 0:07:58.560 --> 0:07:59.840 all of them celsius. 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:03.440 Yeah, and right now there's a discussion that this is 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:06.760 a super el ninos. It's it's is do we know 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.280 how much is the anomaly? Is it two degrees celsius 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:10.800 or more? 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:15.760 Right now, the probability in all of the forecasts are probabilistic. 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:20.080 We based on multi model, So we estimate using statistical 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:24.400 methods of what is the likelihood of this aneno happening 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:29.320 and what is likelihood of it reaching certain strands so 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:33.680 currently the model forecasts, based on multiple models across the world, 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:38.000 is that there is one hundred percent chance theo will 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:42.000 be happening, and it's in fact already exists the conditions 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:45.520 we're already seeing it. But even back in you know, April, 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:49.880 we knew quite high high likelihood this all news happening. 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:55.520 And currently the chance of a superl Nino is about 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:59.160 sixty three percent. So it's about sixty percent. 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:05.520 And in terms of trying to understand the Almineo system's 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:09.600 strength and weakness, what causes certain alninos to be bigger 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:10.800 than other al ninos. 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.360 That's a very good question, which is something that we 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:19.640 are still researching. We know the mechanism of how AINO happens, 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:23.120 which is when you have the heat. You know, during 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:26.360 the normal time, you have the heat being pushed toward 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:29.840 the west, and that heat is pushed toward ocean in 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.880 the La Nina phase you know, including the normal phase, 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.959 that the heat is stored into the ocean, and that 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:40.439 ocean will be accumulating heat and taking a lot of 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:44.760 heat from the atmosphere and eventually it reaches a state 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:48.319 that it can release that heat back into the atmosphere 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:53.880 and that is where Nino will happen. Now, when exactly 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:58.560 it releases that heat and what triggers it, we know 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:00.360 a lot about it, but it's not like you know, 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.880 so there's a random chance like the Westley what we 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:06.640 call Westley wind bursts is the reason. You know, it 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:10.959 weakens the trade wings, and the question of how strong 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:14.600 it will be depends on the amount of heat that 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:19.680 is stored and other ocean conditions, ocean dynamics, and the 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:24.080 release process. So what we know for sure is the 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:28.439 model takes into account all of these conditions and was 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:32.840 able to predict how strong it might become. 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:37.600 Yeah, and so this La Ninia and Ninia phase the 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:42.640 cycle between two and seven years roughly and do this 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.800 process of absorbing the heat and then releasing the heat. 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.320 This is a natural phenomenon that has been happening on 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.120 the planet for a very long time now. Of course, 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.520 over the last two hundred years, we have been heating 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:55.920 up the planet by burning fossil fuels and adding to 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:59.440 the greenhouse gas blanket, which is heating up the planet, 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:02.280 but it's also heating up the ocean because when you're 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:06.480 heating the atmosphere, this La Nina alminio system, and of 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:09.520 course the other oceans are absorbing the heat that's in 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:14.720 the atmosphere. Yes, Is it then that climate change, because 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:18.080 of the heat being built up in the atmosphere, is 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.000 supercharging the al nino. 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:25.960 There are certainly possibilities that is happening, But currently the 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:32.160 models are not showing us for sure that the climate change, 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:36.240 the global warming for sulfiel induced, the global warming is 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:41.880 actually changing the behavior of the alnino itself. So anino 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:45.600 is still happening on a natural basis. It's an ocean 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:49.600 atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific. But what you said, 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.440 you know, that is something that we are all thinking about. 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:56.560 How much of it could be contributed by the fact 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:58.199 that the oceans taking up more heat. 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:03.920 Yes, the strongest al ninion record is known to be 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:08.400 between eighteen seventy seven and eighteen seventy eight, and there 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:11.840 are various impacts that came from that al nino and 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.680 that were quite severe. You know, the world was much 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:18.920 poorer a place back then. Something like fifty million people 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:22.080 were killed across India, China, Brazil. That's about three to 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.720 four percent of the global population at the time because 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.559 of the droughts that happened in the famine that was caused. 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:33.680 Now we are going into a strong super al ninio. 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:40.440 Are we better prepared? Do you think in twenty twenty six, 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:44.440 twenty seven with eight billion people on the planet. 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:48.440 I hope so, I suddenly hope so. 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:49.040 Yes. 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.880 Eighteen seventy six seventy eight is what we call a 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:59.360 great farming period caused you know, severe drought across the globe, 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:04.520 as you already mentioned India, China, Africa as well as 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:10.160 Brazil as well Brazil, and those droughts obviously affected the 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:15.440 crop yield, so crop failed in many, many regions. And 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:19.120 one of the things I would say, the farming is 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:25.360 obviously not directly caused by just crop yield drop. That's contributed, 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:28.160 but a lot of it is policy as well. So 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:32.160 people didn't know we are going to get into this 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:37.400 period of you know, droughts in multiple regions. So for 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:40.600 example India, you know, the crop trading at the time 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:44.480 was continuing like normal. So one of the things I 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:48.199 would hope now we know is that we know exactly 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.520 what's going to happen. I mean, not exactly. I am 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.400 very high likelihood we are going into a supernien yo, 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:58.800 so we can be better prepared in terms of what 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.280 we can do about it. By the way, I should 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:06.360 mention India rainfalls already reduced this year. We're already seeing 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:10.800 the impact of this El Nino, and I believe the 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:15.160 onset of monsoon's delayed, which partially also led to some 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:17.840 of the you know, contributed to the to the heat 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.760 waves there earlier pre monsoon heat waves. 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:22.880 So my hope is that. 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:25.680 You know, people will be actually prepared in the sense 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:31.560 of delayed planting for example, for agriculture side of things, 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:36.400 and also not to uh you know, export crops. You know, 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:41.120 when when farming is, when when drugs coming uh So, Yeah, 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.320 I think there are a lot of ways and technology 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:44.720 as well. 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:50.760 Yeah, and in the recent decades when we have had 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:55.640 technology both to make predictions about al NIU and then 0:14:56.160 --> 0:15:01.800 ideally make some policy changes. What are the recent strong 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.080 El Ninos that have happened and what kind of impacts 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:05.720 have they led to. 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.720 The most recent one is twenty three twenty four yo. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:15.400 That one's actually really unusual. It's not a superos, it's 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.880 a strong eno. It's reached index reached one point five 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:22.200 degrees celsius so it is a strong on year, but 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:26.840 it's not a super one. One consequence of that nino 0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:32.920 was the actual concurrent heat waves we experienced, you know, 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:36.680 in July twenty three, you know, the sum of twenty 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.200 three and both some of twenty three and twenty four. 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:43.560 In fact, we had lots and lots of heat waves 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:49.280 happening across different continents, and I think that is you know, 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:53.960 as we talked earlier, it is contributed partially by the 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:59.520 increase in global surface temperature on top of already gradually 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:01.200 increasing temperature. 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.479 Right the heat waves we are experiencing are the alineo 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.520 point two degree celsius temperature increase on top of the 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.560 one point two or one point four degrees celsius of 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:15.400 climate change that we have caused, and that makes the 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:18.080 heat waves even more extreme than they would have been 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:22.920 it we not cause climate change, yes, exactly. And in 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:26.960 that case, then is it accurate to say that, you know, 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:30.600 when we see this al ninio phase, we are sort 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.760 of getting a flavor of what extreme weather would look 0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:37.560 like in five or ten years as we continue to 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:39.360 burn fossil fuels and heat up the planet. 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.800 Absolutely, I mean, we are definitely seeing the temperatures continue 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:47.120 to rise. So on top of that, if we have 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:51.080 another super onion you're like this upcoming one, then that 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:55.080 that adds to another additional heat into the atmosphere. 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.760 So that kind of you know, higher. 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:02.120 Global meanings surface temperature. Obviously, the global meaning when we say, 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:04.800 you know, the point five point two point point five 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:08.320 degrees celsius is in the global mean, it's regionally it 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:12.360 can be much higher. So they're not evenly distributed, so 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.359 some regions may be up to you know, one degree 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:19.560 two degrees, right, So that is a substantial amount being added. 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:23.600 So we can definitely expect to see a lot more 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.960 of concurrent heat when that happens, which means basically you 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:31.240 are seeing heat wave happening across different regions at the 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:31.840 same time. 0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:35.440 And let's just talk through some of the impacts we've mentioned. 0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:38.080 In the eighteen seventy seven a linear the strongest ever, 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:42.520 there were famines. But the thing that Alinea does is 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:46.399 increases droughts in certain regions but also increases flooding in 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:50.359 other regions. It just changes rainfall patterns in multiple places, 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:55.480 and both can have impact on agricultural yields. But as 0:17:55.520 --> 0:18:00.000 we've also become much more urban in the last two century. 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.960 It can have massive impacts on cities and people. The 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:07.240 twenty three twenty four al Ninio, for example, had catastrophic 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:11.800 floods in Kenya. And then there are other impacts from 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:15.359 Alninius that can come through. So the twenty fifteen twenty 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.160 sixteen al NINII is known for having caused a lot 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:22.480 of coal bleaching, especially in the Great Barrier reef in Australia. 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:25.959 What other impacts should people be aware of? 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:33.159 Impact like wilderfires is wildfires is very severe. As we know, 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:38.600 global warming already are causing dry, drier conditions in many 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:43.840 regions like California for example, southwestern US, and so that 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:49.879 already increased wildfire risk. So in this Caseino is very 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:52.640 well known to be linked to increase the wildfire risk 0:18:52.800 --> 0:19:01.160 in regions like Indonesia, Northern Australia, Eastern Australia where the 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:04.320 suppressed the rainfall happens. You know, when the rainfall shifts 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:09.560 toward the Central Pacific, the warm water moves toward the east, 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:13.680 the rainfall also moves with it. So that is causing 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:16.000 a lot of the drying conditions there and a lot 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:19.280 of fires. One of them. As you pointed out, Flooding 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:25.280 is another common risk associated with El Nino in regions 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:30.640 like the California West south southern US and some part 0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:36.560 of proving you know, coast regions there can be really 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:42.600 severe flooding that can lead to landslides for example, hazards 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:43.000 like that. 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:46.760 One way in which one of the scientists explained to 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.919 me the super part of the al nino was to 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:54.520 think about the things that put heat into the ocean 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:57.679 which then eventually comes out. So one is, because of 0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:00.280 human cross climate change, we are heating up the planet. 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.920 Some of that heat is being transferred into the ocean. 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:05.760 The other is the La Ninia phase, which is a 0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:09.119 phase where there is more than normal heat that is 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:11.840 absorbed by the oceans and then it gets stored in 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:16.239 the Pacific. And typically an el nino follows a La 0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:21.280 Ninia and so you get sort of a battery that 0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:24.720 is being charged, then that gets released in the El nino. 0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:28.080 And then there are other factors that we are still 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:33.000 to understand. And of course this is a very complex phenomenon, 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:37.199 so all the factors are not yet understood. But is 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:39.760 there any other factor that we should be thinking about 0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:42.760 on how much more heat is released in an al nino. 0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:46.480 I think you have covered most of it. You're understanding 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:51.960 is so complete. I can't think of any additional factor 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:58.400 that we haven't talked about. I think, you know, yes, 0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:03.359 ultimately we are still trying to understand better. One of 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:07.119 the things you mentioned is La Nina before al Nino, 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:12.200 which is a phase that heat is me put into 0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:16.879 the ocean storage phase. So there were studies indicating the 0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:19.719 longer the La Nina. Laanina seems, you know, tend to 0:21:19.760 --> 0:21:22.800 be lasting longer, not this time, this time. You know, 0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:26.440 after the twenty three twenty four al Nino, we entered 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:30.520 the Laina phase and pretty much just ended right before 0:21:30.560 --> 0:21:34.159 this al Nino, so it wasn't a super long Laina's 0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:38.560 you know, heat storage phase. So there are studies indicating 0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:43.320 the longer Laanina phase could lead to stronger al Ninho, 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:48.280 but I don't think that is being widely accepted as 0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:53.240 a valid mechanism because we don't see that in data. 0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:57.239 So that could be one, you know, it's how La 0:21:57.280 --> 0:22:01.680 Nina behaves right before El Nino that could determine the 0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:05.040 intensity of the following nino. But ultimately, I think we 0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:07.600 still have a lot up to to understand. 0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:10.600 And then one of the scientists I was listening to said, 0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:15.000 no two el ninos are the same. What does that mean? 0:22:16.600 --> 0:22:21.159 Right? So first of all, not yes, exactly, it means 0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:23.960 none of the No two. You can you can try 0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:27.560 to find the exact replica of you know, theinos. 0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:29.240 They always differ in some ways. 0:22:29.400 --> 0:22:33.200 But I think what it means more is that even 0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:37.320 if you have identical al Ninho, the impact will never 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:40.000 be exactly the same. I think that is more of 0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.880 what you know we usually mean in the sense that 0:22:43.440 --> 0:22:47.200 Ninho is putting, you know again the weight to the 0:22:47.400 --> 0:22:52.400 you know, the the dice. So it's not the only factor. 0:22:53.160 --> 0:22:56.560 Rainfall patterns here and there, you know, droughts and all 0:22:56.600 --> 0:22:59.840 of that that can be impacted by multiple factors in 0:22:59.880 --> 0:23:03.760 the climate system. Nino is just adding a weight to 0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:10.760 one direction. So depending on how the climate, the weather 0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:15.600 pattern itself evolves in the under a Certainino condition, you 0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:19.040 can get a very different impact in different regions. 0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:27.320 After the break, I ask Professor Ming Functing how climate 0:23:27.359 --> 0:23:30.640 scientists are responding in the phase of increased political attacks. 0:23:31.880 --> 0:23:34.680 If you've learned something new from zero, please do give 0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:38.040 us a rating on your favorite podcast app. It helps 0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:54.119 new listeners find the show. Now, this is all happening 0:23:54.119 --> 0:23:58.040 at a time where, at least in the US, there 0:23:58.040 --> 0:24:04.080 are attacks from governments, from political actors on climate science itself. Now, 0:24:04.160 --> 0:24:08.119 climate science is not new to political attacks. These have 0:24:08.240 --> 0:24:10.960 happened over the past three decades in many different ways, 0:24:11.280 --> 0:24:15.119 and the climate scientists community, including yourself, have worked to 0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:18.159 try and figure out what is the best way to 0:24:18.480 --> 0:24:21.639 showcase the work that you're doing, why it helps people, 0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:24.960 what are the facts, and how it allows us to 0:24:25.000 --> 0:24:29.960 prepare for a better world. But particularly in this period, 0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:33.720 you know, there are direct impacts that can come through 0:24:34.080 --> 0:24:39.680 on people's lived experiences. So there was a recent proposal 0:24:39.760 --> 0:24:44.080 from the Trump administration to dismantle the ocean monitoring system 0:24:44.119 --> 0:24:46.600 that you talked about, which can help us predict and 0:24:46.720 --> 0:24:51.960 al Ninio. Of course, Congress has stopped that from happening, 0:24:52.040 --> 0:24:56.800 and so the ocean monitoring system will continue to support 0:24:57.000 --> 0:25:01.560 El Nino work for much longer. As a climate scientist, 0:25:01.600 --> 0:25:02.800 how have you been affected? 0:25:04.160 --> 0:25:07.720 We are all affected in different ways. One of the 0:25:07.760 --> 0:25:11.680 biggest impact is the funding itself. So you know, you 0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:14.600 we are all our works depend on funding. You know, 0:25:14.600 --> 0:25:18.480 our graduate students, post docs, uh, you know, at other 0:25:18.680 --> 0:25:22.480 facilities that we need to to to do the work. Myself, 0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:26.959 I'm not an observational climate scientist in the sense that 0:25:27.040 --> 0:25:30.560 I don't go out and collect data, but as you 0:25:30.640 --> 0:25:33.640 pointed out, that is a super important part of our 0:25:33.680 --> 0:25:37.200 research because we rely on data and my work is 0:25:37.240 --> 0:25:41.960 mostly rely on model so that needs supercomputer infrastructure like 0:25:42.000 --> 0:25:47.080 that to help us continue our research. So one of 0:25:47.160 --> 0:25:49.840 the things I wanted to bring up is, you know, 0:25:50.080 --> 0:25:55.560 climate science itself, it's a physical science, it's not really political. 0:25:55.920 --> 0:25:59.320 But I think we we can communicate better in the sense, 0:25:59.440 --> 0:26:02.280 you know, it is a kind of like you know, 0:26:02.320 --> 0:26:06.040 you're thinking about throw a dice, you're really saying you're 0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:10.760 putting weight on certain high numbers climate changes. That is 0:26:10.800 --> 0:26:13.960 basically doing that. You know you're not equal chance of 0:26:14.000 --> 0:26:16.720 getting all the numbers, but rather now you're getting the 0:26:16.800 --> 0:26:18.200 extremes more likely. 0:26:18.560 --> 0:26:23.280 Yeah, and thinking about life in probability terms is very 0:26:23.280 --> 0:26:27.640 difficult for people in general, even for people who understand 0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:32.800 probability and who are working on statistical methods, and so 0:26:32.880 --> 0:26:36.760 that becomes a difficult issue to communicate. But one field 0:26:36.800 --> 0:26:40.400 that is emerging that is trying to make this communication 0:26:40.520 --> 0:26:44.600 simpler to say, not all extreme weather is caused by 0:26:44.600 --> 0:26:48.399 climate change, but some we can clearly show the link 0:26:48.520 --> 0:26:53.520 to climate change, and that science is extreme weather attribution science. 0:26:54.680 --> 0:26:57.879 Can you just walk us through what extreme weather attribution 0:26:58.040 --> 0:26:58.960 work looks like. 0:26:59.520 --> 0:27:02.639