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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. And always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us

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Speaker 2: right now on these delicate issues in Russia with real

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Speaker 2: world experience. There is a photograph of Vladivostok, if I'm

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Speaker 2: pronouncing it correctly, which is sort of West Japan. It's

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Speaker 2: like Siberia and way way out there. And Amory Horden

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Speaker 2: has some real deserved experience of Russia and she joins

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Speaker 2: us now here on the reported death of Alexei Navalny.

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Speaker 2: I like what Wikipedia says was a Russian opposition leader.

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Speaker 2: That about sums it up in all that, Amory. Before

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Speaker 2: we get to mister Navalny's the death here in the news.

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Speaker 2: What's the number one thing Americans get wrong about Russia?

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Speaker 2: You've lived it. What's the number one thing we get wrong?

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Speaker 1: That's a good question. I feel stumped at the moment.

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Speaker 2: You can't be stumped on radio, be stumped on TV.

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Speaker 2: You can't be stumped on radio. What's the answer? What

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Speaker 2: do we get wrong?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 1: I feel like Russia. To almost understand it, you have

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Speaker 1: to go there. But now it's very hard to understand

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Speaker 1: because of the fact that we don't have these independent

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Speaker 1: journalists working the same way. So it's kind of hard

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Speaker 1: to understand where is as a society now because of this.

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Speaker 1: I think another thing people don't really understand about Russia

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Speaker 1: is just it. You know, you alluded to this talking

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Speaker 1: about blat of Aostak lad of Astok is on the

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Speaker 1: border with North Korea. The country is huge, so you know,

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Speaker 1: people think of Russians and they probably think of Moscow,

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Speaker 1: but it's not There's so many subcultures within Russia and

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Speaker 1: in the.

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Speaker 2: Parts of the USSR and some of that. Of course,

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Speaker 2: mister Putin wants to bring back with his memories of

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Speaker 2: the nineteenth or for that matter, of the fifteenth century.

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Speaker 2: Will we ever know the truth about the death of

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Speaker 2: mister Navalni.

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Speaker 1: About this death, you know, potentially we won't obviously, I

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Speaker 1: think you're alluding to the fact that everyone thinks that

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Speaker 1: it was the Kremlin that ordered the killing of him.

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Speaker 1: At this moment, we don't have that reporting. We don't

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Speaker 1: have that reporting, but you know, his health could have

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Speaker 1: been deteriorating, regardless of whether or not this was purposeful

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Speaker 1: because he was in prison. What we do know is

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Speaker 1: that most all world leaders pretty much have blamed the

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Speaker 1: Kremlin for when they tried to attack him last time

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Speaker 1: with a nerve agent, and then he was airlifted to

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Speaker 1: Germany and then he said that this is my country,

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Speaker 1: and he said he wanted to go back to Russia.

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Speaker 2: Let's review here, and I don't know the details, Amory's

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Speaker 2: live this again. South of London, Salisbury. There's two people

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Speaker 2: sitting on a bench of is a generalization, and they

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Speaker 2: die from nerve whatever in the middle of one of

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Speaker 2: the most Bucolic, beautiful places in London. So I would say, Paul,

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Speaker 2: there's exceptional, not distrust, but just there's a history here

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Speaker 2: that gets you to this death this morning reported in

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Speaker 2: Russia of Alexi.

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Speaker 4: And evolving, And once again, Ann Marie, this kind of

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Speaker 4: brings back to the four the Wall Street Journal reporter

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Speaker 4: who's still being held in Russia. And I have to

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Speaker 4: admit the Wall Street Journal on a daily basis keeps

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Speaker 4: that story literally front page as they should as they

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Speaker 4: should do we have any knowledge of how that might

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Speaker 4: play out, because I know we've heard from the administration

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Speaker 4: and that remains a very top of the agenda issue

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Speaker 4: for the administration, for the State Department, certainly for the

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Speaker 4: Wall Street Journal. What do we know the latest there?

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Speaker 1: So this is Evan Gershkovitch. There's also another dual citizen

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Speaker 1: US citizen that is in from Radio for Europe that

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Speaker 1: is in prison as well in Russia. Putin alluded to

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Speaker 1: this in that interview with Tucker Carlson. I wish Ducker

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Speaker 1: Carlson asked about navalne He didn't, but at least I

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Speaker 1: don't believe he did. For the tape I saw Putin

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Speaker 1: said that, you know, he alluded to the fact that

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Speaker 1: potentially there could be a deal, but he wants a

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Speaker 1: swap and the individual he's likely looking for is this

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Speaker 1: person who is in prison for murder in Germany. So

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Speaker 1: I mean the United States would have to get the

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Speaker 1: Germans to agree with to gree to it. So it's

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Speaker 1: very complicated, unlike it was with Brittany Griner when they

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Speaker 1: had someone they were able to give. But so Putin

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Speaker 1: will just hold on to Evan Gershkovich saying that you

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Speaker 1: know he's a spy when mostly everyone has said that

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Speaker 1: is not true. Just use this as leverage.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna have to go here. But just one more

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Speaker 2: quick question here. I believe on our schedule, our wonderful

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Speaker 2: team is looking at a conversation with Polish government officials

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Speaker 2: next week. That's sort of on our surveillance date calendar.

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Speaker 2: Where does Poland fit into this after their recent election?

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Speaker 2: Where do they fit into the new Europe? Is they

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Speaker 2: figure out how to fund a desperate Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Well, what I find interesting this morning is the Financial

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Speaker 1: Times Ursula Vonderline, speaking for the FT lead article, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: talking about they need to have subsidies to basically build

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Speaker 1: an EU industrial base, the same way they built into

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Speaker 1: COVID vaccines, in the same way as a single market

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Speaker 1: they went after natural gas. Poland would be on the

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Speaker 1: side of agree with that. It's borders Ukraine and it

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Speaker 1: definitely wants a strong NATO and it definitely wants the

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Speaker 1: US military basis to remain there memory.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Amory Horden, of course driving so

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Speaker 2: much of our political coverage here. The first thing I

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Speaker 2: did on the death of mister Navanni and Russia, you

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Speaker 2: say to our team, can you get me Angelus Stent.

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Speaker 2: She wrote a book a decade ago called Putin, which

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Speaker 2: I read cover to cover in February a couple of

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Speaker 2: years ago to understand this guy and Angelas Stent owns

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Speaker 2: a high ground. A student of Angelus Stent and also

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Speaker 2: someone that owns the high ground is Ariel Cohen, Senior

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Speaker 2: Fellow Atlanta Council. The last time he was on the

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Speaker 2: Eurasia Center, he was just magnificent, doctor Cohen, on short

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Speaker 2: notice today, Thank you so much. What does death of

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Speaker 2: mister Navonne mean for mister Putin.

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Speaker 3: It's a watershed event. This can be compared with the

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Speaker 3: murder of Martin Luther King Junior. Or imagine if in

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Speaker 3: South Africa Nelson Mandela were to be murdered a while

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Speaker 3: in jail, but we'll see a very different reaction, Whereas

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Speaker 3: in our country or in South Africa, there would have

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Speaker 3: been an of popular anger in Russia. This is going

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Speaker 3: to be non Russia became underputs In, and I was

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Speaker 3: there literally with Angela and other colleagues, meeting puts In

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Speaker 3: many times in a framework called the Waldaye Club. Once

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Speaker 3: a year we would go and meet with him, and

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Speaker 3: increasingly we saw a man who controlled more and more

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Speaker 3: of that society. But also the murder of Navalni not

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Speaker 3: only highlights how totalitarian Russia is becoming, but that there's

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Speaker 3: no other person of that stature to replace him. My

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Speaker 3: good friend Boris Nemtsov, but he's Nimtsov in Russian pronunciation,

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Speaker 3: was murdered in twenty fourteen, also in February, ten years ago,

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Speaker 3: and since then Russia was decapitated. Russian opposite was decapitated.

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Speaker 3: And Alixe was a very brave man because after speaking

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Speaker 3: up his mind, he went he was poisoned, as we remember,

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Speaker 3: was flown to Germany miraculously saved from the poison, and

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Speaker 3: then he decided to go back and continue to fight,

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Speaker 3: and they just couldn't tolerate having him in jail, and

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Speaker 3: I do believe that he was killed.

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Speaker 2: Eric Cohen, this is just so so important and I

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Speaker 2: think of a conversation with the giant Marshall Goldman. Goldbant

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Speaker 2: on air with Bloomberg's mar Folks in tears Live from Moscow,

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Speaker 2: the day where he said there was a shift and

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Speaker 2: Putin took over. How do we respond not to the

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Speaker 2: Putin that Marshall Goldman knew on that day, but how

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Speaker 2: do we respond to this modern Putin.

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Speaker 3: I think there is real and press and danger. I

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Speaker 3: don't want to be overly dramatic and say it's a

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Speaker 3: mortal danger. We're heard two days ago the leak from

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Speaker 3: Congress the Trusha is deploying a potent anti satellite weapon

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Speaker 3: in space. Probably is going to violate the Space Treaty

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Speaker 3: that prevents deployment of satellite weapons and nuclear weapons in space.

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Speaker 3: I do believe Putin is preparing to broaden the war

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Speaker 3: beyond Ukraine. And in the meantime, we're having a circus

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Speaker 3: in Washington where a small part of the Republican delegation

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Speaker 3: Congressional delegation is articulating arguments they hear from Tucker Carlson

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Speaker 3: and from Donald Trump and try to appease puts In.

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Speaker 3: We saw this movie in the late nineteen thirties and

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Speaker 3: in ninety forty towards another dictator in Europe, and it

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Speaker 3: ended up in a World war.

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Speaker 4: Ye, doctor con I think when we saw this news

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Speaker 4: today about Navani, a lot of us thought about the

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Speaker 4: Wall Street Journal reporter there and others that that are

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Speaker 4: being held there. Any update on how that might develop,

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Speaker 4: that particular that's so high profile.

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Speaker 3: What's in is increasingly, as they say, costplaying costume playing

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Speaker 3: the Cold War, and his two idols are Stalin and Hitler.

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Speaker 3: Believe it or not, you would think that any modern

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Speaker 3: person would not keep Stalin and Hitler as his models

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Speaker 3: for emulation. I think we may see an exchange of

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Speaker 3: even Gershkovich for a Russian spy somewhere in the equivalent

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Speaker 3: of a bridge between the East and west.

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Speaker 2: Brooklin, all this is so important what you're saying here,

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Speaker 2: How those are we to the middle thirties or the

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Speaker 2: late nineteen thirties the lag, I.

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Speaker 3: Would say, late.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the language from you on Stalin and Hitler, and

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Speaker 2: we're in Washington with a new isolationism. It's extraordinary. Is

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Speaker 2: there an analog to nineteen thirty eight.

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Speaker 3: Today? Yes? I think we are. I think God willing

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Speaker 3: it can be resolved. But the chances are going down.

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Speaker 3: I think puts In made a decision based on his

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Speaker 3: observation of America, of Western Europe that we're weak, that

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Speaker 3: we can be pushed around. And a late great Russian

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Speaker 3: political consultant, Gleb Pavlovski, whom I knew very well, who

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Speaker 3: worked for Putsin for many years and then parted ways

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Speaker 3: with him around two thousand and eight, kept writing and

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Speaker 3: saying to me personally and to others that the only

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Speaker 3: way that puts In regime knows is escalation. And we

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Speaker 3: see it. We see it in Georgia and Ukraine in

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Speaker 3: twenty fourteen and Ukraine in twenty twenty two in leaked

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Speaker 3: war plans against the Baltic States now and I think

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Speaker 3: unless we restore our deterrence, the worst case scenario may

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Speaker 3: play out in Europe.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Cohen, thank you so much. We know you've got

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Speaker 2: to go off to other important meetings with the Atlantic Council.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Ariel Cohen, there just a fabulous moment on what

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Speaker 2: we witness in Russia. Again thanks to Anne Marie Horden

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Speaker 2: today earlier for her perspective. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast,

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Speaker 2: bringing you the best in economics finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.