Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number one sixty three of the Marine
Speaker 1: Layer Podcast. It's our mailbag episode. We'll answer all of
Speaker 1: your guys's best questions.
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Speaker 2: Marine Layer Pod.
Speaker 1: Let's get it rolling and we welcome you to this
Speaker 1: episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just
Speaker 1: Baseball podcast network, Recording on Thursday evenings, September twelfth. Lyle,
Speaker 1: how does it feel knowing you Jing Sprine a perfect
Speaker 1: game yesterday?
Speaker 2: Would you like to elaborate on that? How it's my fault?
Speaker 2: I don't think I one time said he was throwing
Speaker 2: a perfecto.
Speaker 1: I think Brian Wu went into the dugout between innings,
Speaker 1: opened his phone, opened Twitter and saw that why is
Speaker 1: everyone hyping me up so much? Do I see perfect
Speaker 1: game here. Oh it must have been the Marine Layer
Speaker 1: podcast tweeting that out those fucks. And then he goes
Speaker 1: out there in the seventh and I gotta make a
Speaker 1: I gotta make a perfect pitchure. I gotta make a
Speaker 1: perfect pitch here, and then Nando.
Speaker 2: Went, it's all it's all people Online's fault. We jinxed it.
Speaker 2: We were the reason Brian Wu gave up the home
Speaker 2: run of Fernando Times.
Speaker 1: A lot of things are our fault, while even if
Speaker 1: they actually aren't.
Speaker 2: I'll never understand people that actually blame, whether it's the
Speaker 2: writers or broadcasters or whoever that mentioned there's a perfect
Speaker 2: game going on as the reason it didn't happen. You
Speaker 2: really think Ryan Divish or Sims has anything to do
Speaker 2: with Brian Wu's perfect game?
Speaker 1: Now? Who do you think thinks about a perfect game
Speaker 1: more while it's happening, the pitcher or the writer? Please?
Speaker 1: You think Brian Wu doesn't know he has a perfect
Speaker 1: game going Do you think he doesn't walk out there
Speaker 1: between every pitch me and like, no one's reached space yet,
Speaker 1: I haven't had to go in the stretch yet.
Speaker 2: Hmmm, Oh wait, No, it's Divish's fault. It's Dimmish's fault.
Speaker 1: Come on people, Hey, what did Ryan responded that dude?
Speaker 1: Yesterday it was delete your Ryan Davis pointed out that
Speaker 1: Wu was fifteen up, fifteen down right, Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: it was that one, and then someone responded to him
Speaker 1: telling him he's jinxing Brian Wu, and I thought one
Speaker 1: of the most perfect lines I've ever heard coming out
Speaker 1: of a beat writer's mouth, delete your count and get
Speaker 1: a life.
Speaker 2: I just found it. I wanted to make sure we
Speaker 2: get this right. So Devish originally tweets one line tweet.
Speaker 2: He just says fifteen up, fifteen down for Brian Wie.
Speaker 2: That's it. Somebody replies, shut up and don't tweet about
Speaker 2: it again. That got four likes and one quote tweet
Speaker 2: in which Divish quote tweets it and says unfollow and
Speaker 2: get a life, which got six hundred and forty five likes,
Speaker 2: nine retweets, two quote tweets, and some comments. He there
Speaker 2: is nobody like him.
Speaker 1: Unfollow his kind of So I couldn't delete your account.
Speaker 1: I think would have been better.
Speaker 2: Probably maybe Davis was in a good mood yesterday.
Speaker 1: But he's never in a good mood.
Speaker 2: In a good mood on the Ryan Divish scale where
Speaker 2: he instead of telling somebody that you should block him
Speaker 2: or you should delete your account, it's just like, okay,
Speaker 2: just unfollow me.
Speaker 1: But I could imagine he'd be less heavy. I mean,
Speaker 1: he probably had to wear a hoodie yesterday, maybe some pants.
Speaker 1: It was chilly at the ballpark, so you have to
Speaker 1: bundle up a little bit. There's always those photos of
Speaker 1: him bundled up on his computer in the press box
Speaker 1: like this with the windows open and the wind just
Speaker 1: blowing straight into the press box while the mayor have
Speaker 1: another boring, offensive performance and there's very little to ride about,
Speaker 1: and has to answer the same tweets over and over again.
Speaker 1: Why Julio when he has a runner in scoring position,
Speaker 1: grounds into a double play? I mean, I'd also be
Speaker 1: in a bad mood.
Speaker 2: Right maybe, Although do you think he actually prefers wearing
Speaker 2: his seven foot or shorts over jeans.
Speaker 1: Well, he's from Montana, hmm. But he probably likes the
Speaker 1: snow then more than just boring cold. It needs to
Speaker 1: be entertaining cold.
Speaker 2: That's probably true.
Speaker 1: There's no entertaining cold in Seattle.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's fair.
Speaker 1: It just rains, and for the most part, I imagine
Speaker 1: people leave him alone in Montana, he doesn't look at
Speaker 1: Twitter and enjoys his life. Meanwhile, he's in Seattle, he's working.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Also, before we get to the mailbag, I just
Speaker 2: got to say, while we're on the topic of Brian Wu,
Speaker 2: to everybody that told me my take was stupid a
Speaker 2: few weeks ago that Brian Wu should be starting a
Speaker 2: playoff game. Where you at now? Where you at now,
Speaker 2: don't get to jump on the bandwagon anymore. Trains left
Speaker 2: the station, left the fucking station. You gonna, yeah, clap
Speaker 2: it up? Are you gonna watch? Are the Mariners gonna
Speaker 2: get into the playoffs? Have a run in September, slate
Speaker 2: their rotator or slot their rotation, pitch Brian Wu, and
Speaker 2: then he goes out and throws like six or seven
Speaker 2: shutout in a postseason game. I'll tell you what, everybody
Speaker 2: that hypes him up better hop into my DMS and
Speaker 2: replies apologizing you included.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know I'm not allowed to cheer on Brian
Speaker 1: Woo in the postseason. Unfortunately, I doubt it. I was
Speaker 1: a doubter although, but luckily for me, this team's not
Speaker 1: making the playoffs, so I don't have anything to worry about.
Speaker 2: Well, that's true. We did declare the season over, so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be kind of tough to come back from.
Speaker 1: Uh is there a chance? Yes? Is it happening? Probably
Speaker 1: not correct. No, if you were, if you were looking
Speaker 1: at us for a overwhelming optimism to make the make
Speaker 1: the playoffs, I'd like to speak for Lyle and myself,
Speaker 1: we cannot deliver that.
Speaker 2: Which is funny to say because usually we are more
Speaker 2: of the positive Slated Mariners podcast or like positive Splanated
Speaker 2: Mariners podcast. But man, these last two months have just
Speaker 2: killed us, like killed our morale. I don't okay, if
Speaker 2: we're gonna just get in the trust tree here for
Speaker 2: a second and be transparent, I don't know the last
Speaker 2: time my morale has been this low watching the team,
Speaker 2: watching the games, et cetera. Because there's years where it's
Speaker 2: frustrating and then and there's years where you have to
Speaker 2: go through the ringer. But even last year when they
Speaker 2: got hot in August and they were in the race
Speaker 2: in September, I fired myself up when they had that
Speaker 2: ten games slate to end the season and you knew,
Speaker 2: like everybody was talking about the playoffs start today. Remember
Speaker 2: they went to Texas and then they had to play Houston,
Speaker 2: and then they have to play Texas again. Everybody last
Speaker 2: year was like playoffs start today. I was fired up
Speaker 2: for that. I know they're three and a half games
Speaker 2: out right now at time of recording this, the Thursday
Speaker 2: game hasn't happened yet against the Rangers, but man, my
Speaker 2: morale is just so lo They like they've they've kicked
Speaker 2: it right out of me this year, and like, why
Speaker 2: it's different.
Speaker 1: It's probably based on timing. If the season flip flopped,
Speaker 1: if what they did from the middle of April to
Speaker 1: the middle of June when they went ten games up
Speaker 1: happened now and these previous two months were before that,
Speaker 1: I think you'd be a little more excited right now.
Speaker 1: I'd be like, look at what they've done. They they
Speaker 1: would have been what they probably would have been ten
Speaker 1: games out right, if not more, and they would have
Speaker 1: built it back to a three and or would have
Speaker 1: moved back to a three and a half game lead
Speaker 1: from an unimaginable depth. We'd be it would be all optimism,
Speaker 1: all optimism, But instead it's the sequencing hasn't worked out,
Speaker 1: and we're you know, and we're all bumped.
Speaker 2: The sequencing things at fairpoint, that's probably part of it.
Speaker 1: It stinks.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's what happened last year. Before we get
Speaker 2: to the mailbag, is is, yeah, they they started poorly,
Speaker 2: they had a red hot August, they got everybody's hopes up,
Speaker 2: and then they didn't get into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: If they did this last year, I mean, it would
Speaker 1: have been the same fire Jerry last year instead of
Speaker 1: the people were like, all right, we just need to
Speaker 1: find some way to fix this in the offseason. Instead.
Speaker 1: Now it's a lot of very angry people mm hm. So,
Speaker 1: but not all of you are terribly wrong, because when
Speaker 1: a team underperforms, you do have every single right in
Speaker 1: the world to be angry. Let's get to this mailbag.
Speaker 1: So when we look for positivity, low mail bags are good.
Speaker 1: Shakes up the questions, shakes up some things that we
Speaker 1: don't normally talk about on this podcast, and we get
Speaker 1: to talk about. So put a smile on your face
Speaker 1: because that's what we're about to do here. The first
Speaker 1: one is right up your alley. This question comes from
Speaker 1: Javier on Instagram, and his question is if Brian will
Speaker 1: pitch the entire season, where would he be in cy
Speaker 1: Young voting. And I'll add a caveat to this by
Speaker 1: him saying, what if he pitched the entire season. Let's
Speaker 1: say he has an entire season worth of stats, where
Speaker 1: does he finish this season?
Speaker 2: Honestly, you could throw out a positioning or ranking and
Speaker 2: I'd say, okay, I believe you, which sounds crazy because
Speaker 2: that means if somebody said, I think Brian we would
Speaker 2: win the cy Young this year, I'm saying, okay, I
Speaker 2: personally would not pick him to win it. I'm just saying,
Speaker 2: by the way he's pitched, if somebody said that, I
Speaker 2: would not respond and tell them that's the craziest take
Speaker 2: in the world. It might not happen. I don't think
Speaker 2: he'd really be over Trek Scooble, probably not set Lugo either,
Speaker 2: but man would be high up there. He'd be an
Speaker 2: All Star, that's for sure. He would have absolutely been
Speaker 2: an All Star down in Arlington this summer. And where
Speaker 2: he'd finished position wise somewhere in the top five.
Speaker 1: I would say, okay, so here's the top five in
Speaker 1: war and I'll ask you to place him among these guys,
Speaker 1: because I think this is a good rough estimate of
Speaker 1: what the top five, and the syng voting is going
Speaker 1: to be Trek, Schouble, Cole, Reagan, Seth Lugo, Logan, and
Speaker 1: tenor Hawk. Where does he finish among those five?
Speaker 2: Oh dude, I put him over Hawk. I'm I'm trying
Speaker 2: to think. Could he get over one of those royals guys?
Speaker 2: He'd probably be right around where Logan is, So four
Speaker 2: or five. Maybe he could jump up to three again,
Speaker 2: maybe he could jump somebody like Reagan's.
Speaker 1: Maybe here's yeah, So here's here's how I've looked at this.
Speaker 1: The problem with Wu even so I tried to extrapolating
Speaker 1: based on what he's done, if he made a full
Speaker 1: season's worth of starts, he would have thrown about one
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy eight innings, which would unfortunately put him
Speaker 1: behind every single one of those guys. So he'd have
Speaker 1: less innings than everybody. He would have the lowest strikeout rate,
Speaker 1: I believe, of all of them. So when you look
Speaker 1: at that, his expected numbers aren't, uh, they're good, They're
Speaker 1: very good. But his raw stats and his the right
Speaker 1: word for not expected stats, but like actual stats. Actual
Speaker 1: stats have been a little bit better than his expected
Speaker 1: stats this year and I do think the modern day
Speaker 1: voter does look at that at least a tiny bet
Speaker 1: of how how flukeas season is and how it isn't.
Speaker 1: And he'd be projected for about four wins above replacement,
Speaker 1: which would be lower than the top four. So here's
Speaker 1: how I set this up. I think he would finish
Speaker 1: right behind Logan Gilbert. Wherever Logan finishes, Logan's not going
Speaker 1: to have a lower ERA than Brian would because let's
Speaker 1: say he pitches those extra seventy eight innings or I
Speaker 1: think it's seventy two innings, he would, let's say he'd
Speaker 1: have a three ERA on the dot, which would be
Speaker 1: exceptionally good if he managed to get that far with
Speaker 1: that be a little bit better than Logan's. But Logan's
Speaker 1: got the higher volume of innings, and he strikes out
Speaker 1: more batters, which voters find more valuable.
Speaker 2: And Logan leaves baseball in Web two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in Whip too. He's got a lot of things,
Speaker 1: a lot of things working for him. So I just
Speaker 1: think wherever they would slot Logan output Brian right after that,
Speaker 1: and as that sits right now, he would finish probably
Speaker 1: third or sorry, fourth or fifth in Cy Young voting,
Speaker 1: if he kept this up for an entire season thirty
Speaker 1: two starts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're right around. We're right about at the
Speaker 2: same boat with where we position them. The thing about
Speaker 2: wo strikeouts, I think that's a part of the reason
Speaker 2: his expected numbers aren't as good as his actual stats,
Speaker 2: because last year he was more of a strikeout guy.
Speaker 2: This year he's not striking out as many batters. But
Speaker 2: it's not like he's not getting results. Nobody hits him
Speaker 2: hard obviously, Nobody really barrels him up all that stuff,
Speaker 2: and it's because he gets a lot of soft contact
Speaker 2: because people cannot square up those fastballs. So look, expected
Speaker 2: stats are good, they're not perfect, but usually those things
Speaker 2: will take strikeouts pretty heavily into account because it's so
Speaker 2: self controlled as a pitcher, rather than relying on your defense.
Speaker 2: But don't you think people would look at Brian Who's
Speaker 2: walk rate? The fact that maybe the most slept on
Speaker 2: story of all pitchers in baseball this year is he's
Speaker 2: essentially the new George Kirby. Kirby's been known as the
Speaker 2: guy that doesn't walk anybody. Wu legitimately does not walk
Speaker 2: anybody anymore, which is a crazy turnaround from where he
Speaker 2: was just in his rookie year, whereas walk rate wasn't
Speaker 2: off the charts bad, but it wasn't great. It was
Speaker 2: somewhere right in the middle. Now he's just like the
Speaker 2: King of not walking anybody. So all those things combined,
Speaker 2: the four Wars season, the crazy stuff full volume. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, he'd probably be about four or five. But
Speaker 2: he'd be in that race if he had thrown a
Speaker 2: fall year.
Speaker 1: So there's a couple of ways to look at that
Speaker 1: point right there. Number One, even with the low walk rate,
Speaker 1: his FIP is still not the best and not close
Speaker 1: to the best of that group. There would be quite
Speaker 1: a few guys ahead of him that have a better FIP.
Speaker 1: So he's got a three to three FIP right now.
Speaker 1: All of the top five have a better FIP than
Speaker 1: he does. And that again, he doesn't walk anybody. And
Speaker 1: that's a third of Phipps's equation, which is essentially what's
Speaker 1: your ra ballpark based on walks, hits, sorry walks, strikeouts,
Speaker 1: home runs on that and he already essentially does the
Speaker 1: best at one and it's still three to three, which
Speaker 1: is suggests the numbers don't like it quite as much.
Speaker 1: The other thing is when you have such a low
Speaker 1: volume of innings, which if he pitches next year and
Speaker 1: throws two hundred and ten innings, none of this matters.
Speaker 1: But for how it is this year, based on the
Speaker 1: pace he's going in the projected one hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: eight or so innings, you would be expected to be
Speaker 1: a little bit more dominant in an overwhelming fashion in
Speaker 1: swing and miss if you're only throwing that many innings.
Speaker 1: You brought up Corbyn Burns. What did Corbin Burns do
Speaker 1: so well in twenty twenty one? The overpowered hitters a lot,
Speaker 1: and will overpowers hitters, but not with strikeouts, and ultimately
Speaker 1: voters do want to see that because that is the
Speaker 1: best form of dominance hit that pitch can do is
Speaker 1: striking out batters. Usually, if you're picking the best pitchers
Speaker 1: in baseball, they also usually strike out the most batters.
Speaker 2: Fair Yeah, no, then those are all good points, and
Speaker 2: strikeouts seem to play a pretty big account into winning
Speaker 2: Cy Young Awards these days. I'd still put him probably
Speaker 2: somewhere in that top five, maybe at the lowest I
Speaker 2: put him at seven, but he'd rate.
Speaker 1: Doesn't need to be a thirty percent strikeout rate. But
Speaker 1: Can he go up from twenty to twenty five percent?
Speaker 1: I would do a lot that it's a little bit
Speaker 1: less than what Logan does. What's Logan's strikeout rate right now?
Speaker 1: I can look.
Speaker 2: Nine. I want to say something like that. I mean,
Speaker 2: obviously strikes.
Speaker 1: Out percentage, it's twenty twenty seven percent for Logan, So
Speaker 1: like twenty it's not too far off a twenty seven
Speaker 1: percent strikeout rate for Logan. Like we think Logan strikes
Speaker 1: out enough batters to win a sy Young Award, So
Speaker 1: that's twenty seven percent. Can he get most of the
Speaker 1: way twenty five percent in the modern day for a
Speaker 1: pitcher with as good as stuff as he has is
Speaker 1: not impossible. In fact, it is more than likely as
Speaker 1: he develops a consistent dominant secondary pitch that he doesn't
Speaker 1: have right now. Dominant lyle is the keyword there. Dominant
Speaker 1: secondary pitch, he will the strikeout rate will will reflect
Speaker 1: that pitches development and that.
Speaker 2: Uses it is starting to go up a little bit
Speaker 2: for him, like you've seen him put more emphasis on
Speaker 2: it this year. It'll be interesting to see what he
Speaker 2: does with it in year three. But little by little
Speaker 2: here you're starting to see the usage in his secondaries
Speaker 2: jump up a little, which is good because as good
Speaker 2: as those two fastballs are, you can't just throw two
Speaker 2: fastballs forever. And you're starting to see him develop some
Speaker 2: of those other three pitches more because he's got the
Speaker 2: change up, he's got a sweeper, he's got a slider,
Speaker 2: he's got some other stuff in his arsenal. Okay, second
Speaker 2: question in the mailbag, I'm blanking on who this is from,
Speaker 2: so apologies that if I don't have the question, or
Speaker 2: if the name of the person that sent the question,
Speaker 2: but they ask which position group that is underperformed for
Speaker 2: the Mariners this year will bounce back?
Speaker 1: So this is from let me look in son of
Speaker 1: Chemo Sabe on YouTube. Okay, I think I pronounced that correctly.
Speaker 1: What position group is most likely to bounce back? I
Speaker 1: think you can boil this question down to Okay, so
Speaker 1: which positions severely underperformed this year? The list I have
Speaker 1: is center right first second, and you're sorry your tire infield.
Speaker 2: Are you about to lift the whole roster?
Speaker 1: But I should have just said, well, you could pick
Speaker 1: seven out of nine in the starting lineup they are
Speaker 1: the ones who underperformed. So it's center right and the
Speaker 1: entire Mariners infield, not counting Cal Raleigh, the realistic guys
Speaker 1: to bounce back who have anchored spots for next season.
Speaker 1: I think of the two guys you can decide on here,
Speaker 1: because we don't know who's going to be the full
Speaker 1: time first baseman for the Mariners next year. We don't
Speaker 1: know who the full time second basement is, and we
Speaker 1: don't know who the full time third basement is. Therefore,
Speaker 1: it is hard to predict a bounce back. So the
Speaker 1: decision is between Julio Rodriguez and JP Crawford.
Speaker 2: And I picked Julio, Okay, tell me why?
Speaker 1: Uh So? I chose why because he is gonna be
Speaker 1: in a prime age next year. JP's gonna be thirty
Speaker 1: as a shortstop. It's when guys starts slowing down, especially
Speaker 1: when they start hitting in Seattle, when they turn thirty,
Speaker 1: they some some of these guys fall off a cliff.
Speaker 1: Uh And Hulu is going to be just twenty four
Speaker 1: next season. And I just have a hard time seeing
Speaker 1: Julio Rodriguez with a six ninety one ops next year.
Speaker 1: If Julio's just gonna get back to sort of his
Speaker 1: career norm of a close to eight hundred ops. Then that,
Speaker 1: combined with a center field defense, would be as valuable
Speaker 1: as the Mariners probably need Julio Rodriguez to be. Of course,
Speaker 1: we want him to be better than that, when in
Speaker 1: terms of what the Mariners need for a productive player
Speaker 1: in center field, eight hundred would be just fine. There's
Speaker 1: another interesting thing. When I was trying to think about
Speaker 1: this for JP.
Speaker 2: Wait, did you want to say that for a minute?
Speaker 1: Well, sorry, well I was gonna say why I wasn't
Speaker 1: gonna choose JP, but I'll let you go go ahead.
Speaker 2: Well, so he's my pick, okay, And he's my pick
Speaker 2: because how could he possibly have a year like this
Speaker 2: again next year? He's barely hitting two hundred, his ops
Speaker 2: is six thirty six, he's battled injuries all year. Shouldn't
Speaker 2: there be some bounce back for him in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's gonna have the one thirty WRC
Speaker 2: plus season again, but I still fully believe that a
Speaker 2: fully healthy season a JP Crawford, he give me a
Speaker 2: one ten to one to fifteen WRC plus hitter. His
Speaker 2: ops is in the seven fifties. He'll walk a lot,
Speaker 2: and you've seen his defense. Pick back up this year,
Speaker 2: so that may be his career year what he did
Speaker 2: in twenty three, don't. I don't see any reason why
Speaker 2: he can't be an above average bat that hits toward
Speaker 2: the top of the order if he is fully healthy
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. And that's not that unrealistic to say.
Speaker 2: Is that like a one to ten or so number
Speaker 2: come twenty twenty five, Which is why I picked him
Speaker 2: at the spot because this is like he's gone from
Speaker 2: a total career high to a total career low in
Speaker 2: terms of his production. I think there's some middle ground there, so.
Speaker 1: You would think that, and I think JP in general,
Speaker 1: his based on his offensive approach approach, has a more
Speaker 1: sustainable idea of what he wants to do at the
Speaker 1: plate year over year outside of Julio, who it mostly
Speaker 1: depends on, as we've seen this year, how many pitches
Speaker 1: he gets to hit in the strike zone. And this
Speaker 1: year people stop throwing pitches in the strike zone. He's
Speaker 1: still swung and look at the results. But did you
Speaker 1: know that JP's OPS this season is actually closer to
Speaker 1: his career OPS than his OPS last year was Aka,
Speaker 1: it is more close to the median JP Crawford season
Speaker 1: than last year.
Speaker 2: That doesn't totally shock me. But again, last year, the
Speaker 2: things he did and everything he changed about his approach
Speaker 2: and his like the fact he's hitting the ball harder,
Speaker 2: it just felt like such a step forward. I don't
Speaker 2: think that's totally lost. I don't think he just all
Speaker 2: of a sudden one day had that fall out of
Speaker 2: his back pocket and he can't get it back. Because
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three felt like such a step forward for
Speaker 2: what JP Crawford does and who he is as a hitter.
Speaker 2: I don't think that's lost on him. I think the
Speaker 2: injuries had a big part of why he didn't play
Speaker 2: the way he did in twenty twenty four, and I
Speaker 2: think he can get back to some form of.
Speaker 1: That lost No, but it does look like that number
Speaker 1: is a bigger outlier than this is an outlier bad season.
Speaker 2: I guess we'll find out. I mean, I'm gonna be honest.
Speaker 2: You're putting high praise or high expectations on Julio again
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five. I'm gonna be honest. What are like,
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm a wet blanket for this and a Debbie downer,
Speaker 2: What are my expectations for Julio in twenty twenty five
Speaker 2: for what he set. My expectations for him is he's
Speaker 2: gonna be a one to ten WRC plus hitter. That's
Speaker 2: what he has shown to be in the last two
Speaker 2: years of his career, and until he proves otherwise, that
Speaker 2: is what I'm going into twenty twenty five believing about him.
Speaker 2: He is going to be a very slightly above league
Speaker 2: average bat who plays good defense and can steal some bases.
Speaker 2: In the last two seasons, outside of a ridiculous August
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, he has not given us any
Speaker 2: inkling of who he was in twenty twenty two, Like
Speaker 2: there has no been no prolonged stretch of superstar play
Speaker 2: at the plate. And look, this is gonna be a
Speaker 2: tough and probably brutal offseason because we don't think they're
Speaker 2: gonna spend very much money, which sucks because what would
Speaker 2: I do if if if you know you were in
Speaker 2: that position, like I would go out and find superstar
Speaker 2: bats because in the last two years, the guy you
Speaker 2: thought was gonna be your superstar bat can't be relied
Speaker 2: upon to be right now, again, I think he's a
Speaker 2: like a slightly above league average hitter right now, So.
Speaker 1: You're less confident in his ability to bounce back because
Speaker 1: a one to ten WRC plus Julio combined with his
Speaker 1: defense is a four and a half win player problem.
Speaker 2: What's the what's the right now? One oh two? That's
Speaker 2: not that much of a bounce back. I have more
Speaker 2: confidence than JP being a one ten WRC plus hitter
Speaker 2: next year, than Julio being a one thirty to one forty.
Speaker 2: Like again, this is like, I'm not this is my expectations.
Speaker 1: Kind of Uh, it's kind of unfair.
Speaker 2: Why is that unfair?
Speaker 1: That's that's a sliding skill. Well, but JP only has
Speaker 1: to get to a one ten.
Speaker 2: Well, one's expected to be a lot greater than the other.
Speaker 1: That's not not wrong, but no, I Julio's only crossed
Speaker 1: one one forty once and then he's gone under one
Speaker 1: forty twice.
Speaker 2: So again, so say one thirty, I have more confidence
Speaker 2: than JP to be a one ten than I do
Speaker 2: for Julio to be a one thirty.
Speaker 1: But a bounce back for Julio would be a one
Speaker 1: one twenty, wouldn't even need to make it to one thirty.
Speaker 2: I still have my doubts.
Speaker 1: We're not saying what would it take for who's gonna
Speaker 1: win an MVP. We need him to bounce back. We
Speaker 1: need him to have an eight hundreds. That's what we need.
Speaker 1: That's a bounce back for Julio next year, right.
Speaker 2: And out and outside of one month in the last
Speaker 2: two seasons. Has he proven that? Like, has he given
Speaker 2: you enough confidence in the last two years to say
Speaker 2: he is going to do that?
Speaker 1: No, No, he hasn't. But JP Crawford you could say
Speaker 1: the same thing. He's he's been hurt. But Lyle, he
Speaker 1: was so good in just the second half last year.
Speaker 1: He had three good months to really excellent months to
Speaker 1: finish last year, the first three months. It's pretty close
Speaker 1: to what he's doing right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 1: So it's a tough we can we can marginalize a
Speaker 1: nitpick with both of these guys. I think ultimately, I
Speaker 1: think the Mariners, based on all the positions I let
Speaker 1: I read off at the start of this, you know
Speaker 1: what they need. They need both of them to bounce back.
Speaker 1: That's what they need.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they do. I just like again, obviously, for three
Speaker 2: years in a row now, people have had sky high
Speaker 2: expectations for what Julio could be in each respective season.
Speaker 2: And this is just where I stand for who's gonna
Speaker 2: be as a hitter in twenty twenty five? Like this
Speaker 2: is right now who I think he is as a player.
Speaker 2: He is a slightly above league average hitter. And if
Speaker 2: I go into the year believing that's what he's gonna
Speaker 2: be and he performs to that, then okay, that's what
Speaker 2: you expected. If he's better than that, great, then he
Speaker 2: blew your expectations out of the water. But this is
Speaker 2: kind of the precedent he's sent the he's set the
Speaker 2: last two seasons.
Speaker 1: Let's get to our next questions. Let's break up the
Speaker 1: arguing here, let's have some fun. This is from Mitchell
Speaker 1: Hopkins on YouTube. His question is it's packed two rivalry week.
Speaker 1: Actually it's technically the lyle Now six pack. Congratulations PAC twelve.
Speaker 1: Who wins the Apple Cup? And who wins the Civil War?
Speaker 1: And by the way, Apple Cup is wazoo? You dub
Speaker 1: Civil Wars Oregon State organ for those unfamiliar.
Speaker 2: Aren't you not allowed to call it the Civil War anymore?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Well, everyone calls it the Civil War still except the schools. Okay,
Speaker 1: so my problem with it? You know my beef is
Speaker 1: I have no problem with them wanting to change the name.
Speaker 1: If you want to change the name, and I get
Speaker 1: the reason why they did, I just would have rather
Speaker 1: than actually chosen a different name besides the rivalry game.
Speaker 2: Uh huh, yeah that's fair. Well, you could tell the
Speaker 2: people a lot more about Oregon State than I can.
Speaker 2: I will say Oregon has looked pretty underwhelming, to say
Speaker 2: the least in their first two games. I mean, they
Speaker 2: almost lost to Idaho at home, and then they beat
Speaker 2: Boise State by a little bit. I'll still pick them
Speaker 2: to win. I don't think it's going to be an
Speaker 2: inspiring win, but sure, I'll pick Oregon to win. Washington
Speaker 2: Washington State. I think that game's gonna be close. I
Speaker 2: actually think it has a chance to be high scoring too.
Speaker 2: I'll say Washington wins that one. But John Matteer for
Speaker 2: Washington State has like a crazy game both through the
Speaker 2: air and on the ground, but Washington just barely finds
Speaker 2: a way to win.
Speaker 1: I think both games gonna be close to I'll give
Speaker 1: the Koogs an edge. I think the I think the
Speaker 1: stale environment is gonna almost help Wazoom. I would say
Speaker 1: they probably should be playing this game in Pullman. I
Speaker 1: have no idea why it's not being played in Pullman.
Speaker 1: A lot of terrible decisions being made by PAC twelve
Speaker 1: leadership and President's time after time after time after time
Speaker 1: after time after time again, which ultimately led to this
Speaker 1: game being played at Lumen for some reason. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be half empty, if that might be less than that
Speaker 1: might be a third full for this game. I was
Speaker 1: checking out tickets. Tickets are still like eighty bucks for
Speaker 1: a game that's gonna have no one at it. I
Speaker 1: can't believe that.
Speaker 2: That's actually got down. That it was like two hundred
Speaker 2: dollars earlier this week.
Speaker 1: Like they're gonna have to cover seats. It's it's stupid.
Speaker 1: It's not college football if you're playing it in an
Speaker 1: NFL stadium.
Speaker 2: Which is still crazy that there's not gonna be a
Speaker 2: bunch of U Dub fans at it because it's not
Speaker 2: like it's a big track. It's in Seattle, who knows who?
Speaker 1: Who knows, But I think that one will be that
Speaker 1: one's gonna be close. I'll give Wazoo the edge there
Speaker 1: because I think materis X factor. I think it is
Speaker 1: a good word to you for him with with his
Speaker 1: with his legs, and I think you get have a
Speaker 1: pretty good game both these games. I really feel I
Speaker 1: could go either side. I do feel like there's a
Speaker 1: bigger talent gap between the between Oregon and Oregon State
Speaker 1: than there is between Washington and Wazoo. Especially with the
Speaker 1: continuity of the Wazoo coaching staff that certainly helps a
Speaker 1: little bit more than than the continuity of Oregon State's
Speaker 1: coaching staff. You know, looking at this this Oregon State game,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna dive into it too much because I
Speaker 1: have plenty of time to talk about it on Saturday
Speaker 1: before the game actually happens. You know, I like the
Speaker 1: beavers chances a lot more than I did before the
Speaker 1: season started. I thought this game was gonna be an
Speaker 1: absolute blowout, But Ducks have looked bad. They've looked bad
Speaker 1: for a team that has as much talent as they do,
Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna game that's gonna come down
Speaker 1: to the second half. Beaves are gonna try and hold
Speaker 1: the ball as long as possible, but I think ultimately
Speaker 1: a Ducks have have too much star power and they'll
Speaker 1: probably win on a One of their receivers is gonna
Speaker 1: break off a bit going in and that'll be the difference.
Speaker 1: I like those predictions, but at least they're playing it
Speaker 1: on campus, so the energy will be good. Unlike again,
Speaker 1: I just can't believe they're playing that game at Lumenfield.
Speaker 2: Stupid.
Speaker 1: I can't.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, before we get to the next question,
Speaker 2: let's take a quick pause. We're gonna talk to you
Speaker 2: about our friends at Pigatcha's Pub eighty five. You want
Speaker 2: to watch some rivalry college football this week. You want
Speaker 2: to watch the Mariners, You want to watch Seahawks the NFL,
Speaker 2: basically whatever you want. You want to go watch boarding events,
Speaker 2: head over there. You want to have some great food,
Speaker 2: head over there. You want to play some pool or
Speaker 2: some darts, head over there. You want to do all
Speaker 2: of that, Well, it's all over at Pub eighty five.
Speaker 2: And if you head over during happy hour there's great
Speaker 2: drink specials. It's three and four dollars from two to
Speaker 2: six pm on Monday through Fridays. Whole nine yards. That's
Speaker 2: all over at Pigotcha's Pub eighty five in Kirkland. Question
Speaker 2: number four. We got this one on Instagram, and the
Speaker 2: question is why don't the Mariners act more like the Kraken.
Speaker 2: Let's see if I can get who sent this one
Speaker 2: in right? I want to make sure I try to
Speaker 2: give people credit for these because they're nice enough to
Speaker 2: send them. And this was from Andrew J. Sunday on Instagram.
Speaker 2: He said, why don't the Mariners spend Okay, the exact question,
Speaker 2: if you want to get it word for word right,
Speaker 2: The Krack can have spent a boatload to cash this offseason.
Speaker 2: Will the M's ownership ever take a hint?
Speaker 1: I'm not saying the Mariners shouldn't spend more money. They
Speaker 1: should spend way more money than they spend right now.
Speaker 1: But like, what are we doing? They're different sports? Would
Speaker 1: you like it? Would you like a fun fact? Llyle?
Speaker 2: Sure?
Speaker 1: You want to know where the Kraken rank and cap
Speaker 1: spending minichel Yeah.
Speaker 2: I lay it on me.
Speaker 1: Twenty third. What would people be saying if the Mariners
Speaker 1: were twenty third in payroll?
Speaker 2: Well, it wouldn't be good. That's about where they were
Speaker 2: last year. They're a little bit higher.
Speaker 1: Now they're in like they're what sixteenth now? Yeah, twenty third?
Speaker 1: I will say in the NHL, the Margins are a
Speaker 1: lot smaller to get up to the number two payroll.
Speaker 1: It's only ten million dollars, but the difference between the
Speaker 1: salary four and the NHL, which is sixty five million,
Speaker 1: and the cap which is eighty eight million, it's really
Speaker 1: not that much money. So we're dealing with smaller margins here.
Speaker 1: Less money comes in with the NHL. Therefore they spend
Speaker 1: less on players. But like guys, the Mariners outspent the
Speaker 1: crack in this offseason, like not even spending money on
Speaker 1: real free agents besides Mitch Garver, like literally just adding
Speaker 1: the increased pay of Josh Rojas, of trading for Luis Surius,
Speaker 1: signing Mitch Garver, adding Jorge Polonko, signing Ryan Stanik, like
Speaker 1: without even lifting a finger, and going after real free agents.
Speaker 1: They outspent, outspent the Cracking. I love what the Crackinger
Speaker 1: are doing. It's great, it's fantastic, but they also have
Speaker 1: a floor to appease to and a lot more roster
Speaker 1: spots to fill. It's and also it's just it's a
Speaker 1: different It's like complaining about teams not spending enough. It's like,
Speaker 1: look at the NFL teams that spend all this money,
Speaker 1: Well they have to. It's literally in the CBA that
Speaker 1: they have to spend this much money and they have
Speaker 1: to fill a roster and a practice squad.
Speaker 2: Well, when the next CBA negotiations go on in baseball,
Speaker 2: which there's probably gonna be another fat lockout, when that
Speaker 2: day comes around, they should get a salary floor implemented.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you that, because.
Speaker 1: Players are never gonna go for that. They're gonna put
Speaker 1: in a cap.
Speaker 2: You're saying the owners would never go for a salary floor.
Speaker 1: Owners would never go for that because then they well,
Speaker 1: they would go for it if they if the players
Speaker 1: agree to a cap, which they would never agree to.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, that's fair, and.
Speaker 1: So I didn't mean to come off in a disparaging way. Andrew,
Speaker 1: I appreciate the question. I just think it's really difficult
Speaker 1: to compare sports in spending.
Speaker 2: I will say, if the Mariner should take a hint
Speaker 2: anywhere from the Kraken, it's extending their own players. Because
Speaker 2: the Crack have now extended Mattie Benier's, They've extended Adam Larson,
Speaker 2: they've extended Jared McCann. I mean, they've made some free
Speaker 2: agent signings too, but they have extended guys in house,
Speaker 2: like I know the Mariners have made some moves in
Speaker 2: free agency, and they've extended extended a couple guys in
Speaker 2: house between Luis, between Julio if you want to count
Speaker 2: Evan White when they extended Evan White. Yeah, they should
Speaker 2: extend more guys in house that are contributing to this
Speaker 2: team because not only are they not spending money in
Speaker 2: free agency, but they're not spending money on their own
Speaker 2: players right now either, So they should do what's.
Speaker 1: What's the Mariners in house extension counter? We have three.
Speaker 2: If you want to count Evan White, Yeah, that's the
Speaker 2: other one.
Speaker 1: They've offered more. I know they offered kell Nick one.
Speaker 1: I'm guessing they offered Gilbert one.
Speaker 2: Two. Yeah, but they're probably low balling all these.
Speaker 1: I know, I know. And so what what are the
Speaker 1: cracking at three?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: So it's about even?
Speaker 2: All right, Well, the marriage should still do it more.
Speaker 1: Same playoff success too, funny wow, in the same period.
Speaker 2: In a three year span. Now stretch it out to
Speaker 2: twenty two years and see what happens.
Speaker 1: Then we might have to start a cracking podcast too.
Speaker 2: I need a lot more hockey to do that anyway.
Speaker 1: But if the Mariners want to go sign more free agents.
Speaker 1: I won't say no. I won't say no. I just
Speaker 1: think it's difficult to compare.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair.
Speaker 1: Next question, this comes on Instagram from Chuck seven three
Speaker 1: four six, and the question is which starting pitcher are
Speaker 1: you trading this off season for a bat?
Speaker 2: Our answers are different on this. We talked about it
Speaker 2: a little bit before we started recording. You know what,
Speaker 2: I'll let you go first.
Speaker 1: The picture I am trading for a bat this off
Speaker 1: season if you have to, let me note this, if
Speaker 1: you have to, is Logan Gilbert, because he will get
Speaker 1: you the most return. He will hit free agency first,
Speaker 1: and he will be the most expensive of your in
Speaker 1: house guys that are under rookie contra, under arbitration contracts.
Speaker 1: It makes the most sense. This pains me. I don't
Speaker 1: want to trade Logan Gilbert, but if you want to
Speaker 1: get the best bat possible, you are trading. If you
Speaker 1: want to get the best bat possible and that bat
Speaker 1: is actually available someone that is worth Logan Gilbert's value
Speaker 1: this off season, then you trade him. And oh, by
Speaker 1: the way, before you trade him, you get the whiff
Speaker 1: from him that he's not signing an extensions. Here, you
Speaker 1: need to know that for certain But once you know that,
Speaker 1: then you have to do it. Because he's reaching free
Speaker 1: agency first, he'll be expensive and he's the most valuable.
Speaker 1: Will Logan Gilbert's value ever be higher than it is
Speaker 1: right now?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Or no?
Speaker 2: I mean I think there's a world he can continue
Speaker 2: to get better.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but is his value gonna be higher?
Speaker 2: There could be a chance. People pay a pretty penny
Speaker 2: for starting pitching, which is why, which is why, honestly,
Speaker 2: like we can get into my answer here too, I
Speaker 2: have multiple But that's why I think, like you seem
Speaker 2: to really undervalue or that's I shouldn't say undervalue it,
Speaker 2: like it's a certainty. You seem to believe that Luis
Speaker 2: Castillo would not get you much of a package in return,
Speaker 2: whether it's because of the no trade clause, because of
Speaker 2: the age, because of the contract. Again, people pay a
Speaker 2: pretty penny for starting pitching, especially very good starting pitching,
Speaker 2: And I think if the Mariners were to eat most
Speaker 2: of that contract and send him somewhere he was okay
Speaker 2: going to, you could still get real bats back for
Speaker 2: Luis Castillo.
Speaker 1: Now, the problem is, why are you trading him if
Speaker 1: you're gonna eat most of.
Speaker 2: The contract because you need bats.
Speaker 1: The whole point. But the whole point of trading him
Speaker 1: in the first place is saving money. You can get.
Speaker 2: Bats, but they're not gonna spend money in free agency
Speaker 2: on bats.
Speaker 1: If you can already eat money, why wouldn't you just
Speaker 1: keep them?
Speaker 2: Because you have got to find a way to shake
Speaker 2: up this offense and get it better. And like, who's
Speaker 2: in free Like, let me throw this back to you.
Speaker 2: Who in free agency?
Speaker 1: Do you really want Tony in Wan soa?
Speaker 2: Yeah, like guys like that? You think the Mariners are
Speaker 2: getting in bidding wars for those guys? Do they ever
Speaker 2: get in bidding wars? I'm down? Like again, just take
Speaker 2: out the value beers for Juan Soto, like we've said
Speaker 2: a million times. But I don't think they're getting in
Speaker 2: bidding wars for those guys. And if that's the case,
Speaker 2: what is an extra twenty four million dollars a year
Speaker 2: on the books for Louis Castillo gonna change?
Speaker 1: I don't think the Mariners are trading Louis Castillo to
Speaker 1: eat his twenty four million dollars. That makes no sense.
Speaker 1: Well you might, I think they need to go get
Speaker 1: a bat, but eating his money the whole point of
Speaker 1: trading a picture is to not have to worry about
Speaker 1: paying them in the future.
Speaker 2: Well, then you're gonna tank his value for what you
Speaker 2: could get back. Well I I would again, You have
Speaker 2: got You have to find a way to get offense.
Speaker 2: And if this is the only way and you think
Speaker 2: there's real bats you can get back for him, then
Speaker 2: eat most of the money.
Speaker 1: But they they won't. They won't be able to afford
Speaker 1: the bats they're trading for.
Speaker 2: Okay, how about this contracts split fifty to fifty or
Speaker 2: maybe even sixty forty. Well, okay, so then then the
Speaker 2: team that takes Louise is paying him twelve million dollars
Speaker 2: a year.
Speaker 1: You could try, but then I will again bring up
Speaker 1: It all comes down to what Luis wants, because he
Speaker 1: holds the cards in any trade that has his name
Speaker 1: in it, all of the cards. He he turns into
Speaker 1: the president of baseball operations. Sorry, he skips past that,
Speaker 1: he turns into the chairman because the trade doesn't happen.
Speaker 1: If Louis Castillo says, I don't want to get traded
Speaker 1: from Seattle. I like pitching here. I bought a home here,
Speaker 1: I like living here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all true. That being the main point of that
Speaker 2: I'm trying to make about Luis is the idea that
Speaker 2: he will not bring you back much value. If if
Speaker 2: you do the right thing and you say, Okay, this
Speaker 2: is not about saving money, this is about going to
Speaker 2: get offense and make this team better, which should be
Speaker 2: the whole point, I think he can still warrant you
Speaker 2: back real value. I still think Luis Castillo can get
Speaker 2: you back Kobe Mayo, Heston Kurstad, whoever it is from
Speaker 2: the Orioles, if he were to agree to a trade.
Speaker 1: There, if you eat the money, if if you can
Speaker 1: somehow find the way to convince Mariner's ownership to eat
Speaker 1: all of that money and take on new players who
Speaker 1: will be expensive within three years, then yeah, yes, but
Speaker 1: it all rests on that no trade clause. Because with
Speaker 1: that no trade clause, there's no way you are trading
Speaker 1: that money. There's no way you're trading all of that
Speaker 1: money away and getting anything of equal value in return.
Speaker 1: You will get less value trading him away. If you're
Speaker 1: trading away all that money too.
Speaker 2: Well, by the time said players you trade for might
Speaker 2: get expensive, Luise would be off the books by that point.
Speaker 2: So then it's fine. The money, the money's gone.
Speaker 1: You need more than just those players.
Speaker 2: Well, but it's a start. You've got to You've got
Speaker 2: to start somewhere. And again, they need a third baseman,
Speaker 2: they need a first baseman, they might need a second baseman,
Speaker 2: they might need an outfielder. We'll see what happens at
Speaker 2: dage like and they won't spend in free agency, so
Speaker 2: it has to come from somewhere.
Speaker 1: It's a start, but it is not. It is not
Speaker 1: what I would put at the top of the board
Speaker 1: this offseason in terms of if you're making a two
Speaker 1: doo on on things to try, I don't think that
Speaker 1: should be your number one thing because what does that
Speaker 1: tell Luis Castillo next season if he has to veto
Speaker 1: you trading him off the roster and then he shows
Speaker 1: and he shows up at spring training and he's like, oh,
Speaker 1: what do these guys think about me? Hmm?
Speaker 2: Fine. So here, here's the second point in this topic
Speaker 2: that I is going to make. I want you to
Speaker 2: start this again for the sake of just the start
Speaker 2: of this question. Eliminate all other factors. Who do you
Speaker 2: think is more likely to sign an extension here, Louis
Speaker 2: castor Sorry, not Louis Castilla. We're past him for now.
Speaker 2: Logan Gilbert or George Kirby just one answer, Logan Gilbert.
Speaker 2: So why not trade Kirby?
Speaker 1: Because who says Logan Gilbert actually signs that extension if
Speaker 1: you think.
Speaker 2: You're probably not keeping both. So if you think you
Speaker 2: have the chance to make it happen with one and
Speaker 2: you have to trade an arm, like I don't want
Speaker 2: to trade any of these arms, but if you have
Speaker 2: to trade one, I don't think it's crazy.
Speaker 1: So what percentages are we doing? Are we saying Logan
Speaker 1: as a twenty percent chance to sign in George's zero?
Speaker 1: Are we saying Logan as a sixty percent chance to
Speaker 1: sign and George is a twenty? What are we talking
Speaker 1: about here?
Speaker 2: I think if the Mariners gave him a fair contract,
Speaker 2: he'd be pretty open to it.
Speaker 1: What's a fair contract? And would they be willing to
Speaker 1: pay him that? Because you know what a fair contract
Speaker 1: for what Logan Gilbert's doing right now? Thirty million dollar
Speaker 1: You know what they're not gonna give Logan Gilbert right
Speaker 1: now thirty million dollars a year.
Speaker 2: Well, they should, or they give him something close to it.
Speaker 1: They should if they were willing to actually pay up.
Speaker 1: Then then we wouldn't be talking about trading starting pictures.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I know George Kirby has the extra year
Speaker 2: of control. But look, the first part of this is
Speaker 2: just speculation because you know, the general public and the
Speaker 2: people I feel like know so little about George Kirby's
Speaker 2: personality because he's not really out there. He's pretty to himself.
Speaker 2: He's pretty introverted. He doesn't do a lot of media stuff.
Speaker 2: But so again, what I'm saying maybe not true in
Speaker 2: any in any way, shape or form, but just from
Speaker 2: like reading his body language and stuff, whether it's on
Speaker 2: TV or wherever, when you watch him, like, he doesn't
Speaker 2: always seem like the happiest camper all the time. I
Speaker 2: don't know if that means he doesn't like being here.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that means that's just how he is.
Speaker 2: But if you really think that, like he has no
Speaker 2: chance of signing an extension and isn't interested in it
Speaker 2: at any point. Paired with the fact that he has
Speaker 2: not taken the jump forward that people were hoping he
Speaker 2: was going to take this year, he has had a
Speaker 2: bad six weeks. He had a six to eight ERA
Speaker 2: for the month of August, it's now way over five
Speaker 2: in September. He still really doesn't have a true outpitch,
Speaker 2: so he's not really striking guys out. But all that
Speaker 2: being said, you get a haul back for George Kirby.
Speaker 2: So all that combined, is there a world where he
Speaker 2: actually makes the most sense to trade?
Speaker 1: Depends what you want back. Like I said, I was trading.
Speaker 1: The idea behind trading Logan Gilbert is that you will
Speaker 1: get the most out of trading any of your starters.
Speaker 2: So let me piggyback off that point. I'll use what
Speaker 2: Jeff Passon talked about on Brocken Salk this week, because
Speaker 2: we've talked about the Orioles is a very obvious team
Speaker 2: that would make sense to trade with. He's mentioned them
Speaker 2: too passing, but he threw out another team, he said,
Speaker 2: the Red Sox, and he threw out some of their
Speaker 2: the names of their prospects, and I will he didn't
Speaker 2: say this, He thought the Red Sox probably wouldn't be
Speaker 2: willing to trade this player. But Stalk asked the questions,
Speaker 2: I'll ask it to you, uh insensitive comments aside, like
Speaker 2: if if you have a problem with what this guy said,
Speaker 2: I understand, like, like obviously, and if you don't want him.
Speaker 1: I know what you're talking about, and I do, but yeah,
Speaker 1: tell you.
Speaker 2: I get it. And if and if you're listening and
Speaker 2: you have a problem with what he said, then that
Speaker 2: is totally understandable. We totally like and if you don't
Speaker 2: want him around the team, I get it. But if
Speaker 2: you're just talking about the player, would you trade George
Speaker 2: Kirby for Jared Duran? Straight up? I said it'd be tough.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you said it would be tough. But that's about
Speaker 1: as equal as it gets, right, I mean, it's a
Speaker 1: big league All Star with the exact same amount of control,
Speaker 1: said a really good season, and he's essentially it fits
Speaker 1: exactly what you need.
Speaker 2: Oh he said like eight and a half wins.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know. And he's an outfielder and he hit
Speaker 1: and he hits for average and he hits for power,
Speaker 1: and he's fast and he's athletic, all things you just
Speaker 1: don't have enough of on this roster. It's it's legitimately everything.
Speaker 1: So man, would I do that?
Speaker 2: That's tough, It's tough. It's really tough.
Speaker 1: Never I didn't have a good answer to it on
Speaker 1: the air, like he opened his mouth, and what he
Speaker 1: said is just Irra is just terrible and should not
Speaker 1: be said. So from a I'll just I'll use that
Speaker 1: as my reason to say no. But on a talent perspective,
Speaker 1: if you're looking for equal value for either of your starters,
Speaker 1: that's it. It's that right.
Speaker 2: And if it wasn't going to be that, like the
Speaker 2: Red Sox would have to give you a flurry of prospects,
Speaker 2: somebody like William or Brew was the other name that
Speaker 2: was thrown out there. But that guy can't be the
Speaker 2: headliner for George Kirby. He's had a really good he's
Speaker 2: had a nice year. He's had like a three win season.
Speaker 2: But if you were going to trade Kirby to Boston,
Speaker 2: you've got to get back either a bray You or Rafaela,
Speaker 2: like one of their two rookies. But you've also got
Speaker 2: to get one of their blue chip prospects back, somebody
Speaker 2: like Roman Anthony, who, by the way, we saw down
Speaker 2: at All Star Week and just like lit up that
Speaker 2: prospect showcase on that Saturday, somebody with real power outfielder,
Speaker 2: top ten prospect, et cetera.
Speaker 1: And that's where it comes back to why are you
Speaker 1: willing to trade a starting pitcher if you're not going
Speaker 1: to get equal value back, And then we respond and say, yeah, right,
Speaker 1: it doesn't make any sense because you're not gonna get
Speaker 1: back what they're actually worth. But when you're unwilling to
Speaker 1: spend the money to make up for that lack of
Speaker 1: return and talent, then this is like, this is what happens. Like,
Speaker 1: do the Rays get equal value for all the players
Speaker 1: they trade away? No, because they have no choice because
Speaker 1: they can't spend the money to pay those players. Right,
Speaker 1: And that's the situation the Mariners in. There is a
Speaker 1: very real chance if you're trading one of these pictures
Speaker 1: in the off season, you're not going to get back
Speaker 1: equal talent and returning. You're gonna essentially take a talent
Speaker 1: loss on the trade, which, you know what, is not
Speaker 1: going to make the Mariners better next year. If you're
Speaker 1: thinking about it realistically, the best case scenario this offseason,
Speaker 1: if the Red Sox are willing to do it, is
Speaker 1: trade you Jared Durant, Right, that's league That's better than
Speaker 1: anything the Orioles can offer you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because you know they're not gonna trade Gunner. They're
Speaker 2: not gonna trade Adlee. They probably wouldn't even trade Jackson Holiday.
Speaker 1: So and and you know, Kurse Dad and Colton Kaowser
Speaker 1: are good players, they're not Jared Duran.
Speaker 2: No, they're not proven. Like Kowser has a chance to
Speaker 2: win Rookie of the Year, but he's still not Jared Durant.
Speaker 2: And by proven, I mean while Kowser has had a
Speaker 2: good year, he's got to repeat it a little bit.
Speaker 2: This is Jared Durant's best year by far, but he
Speaker 2: has had other good years aside from this. It just
Speaker 2: wasn't at this level. However, We'll say it again, if
Speaker 2: you have issues with the comments that he put out there,
Speaker 2: or you think players in that clubhouse or people in
Speaker 2: the organization would have issues with the comments he put
Speaker 2: out there, and that's your reasoning for you don't want
Speaker 2: any part of them. We understands that's totally reasonable. But
Speaker 2: if you're just looking at player come to play, the
Speaker 2: value there is close.
Speaker 1: And it makes a lot of sense because the Mariners
Speaker 1: emphasize culture a lot with that, right, and something like
Speaker 1: that is just not anything that's beneficial to any sort
Speaker 1: of clubhouse period. So and you late, ultimately it's all speculation, right,
Speaker 1: because maybe the Red Sox very well might not want
Speaker 1: to trade Jared Durant. It's like, oh, why would the
Speaker 1: Marriors want to trade a pictuer? Oh why would the
Speaker 1: Red Sox want to trade Jaron Durant. He's one of
Speaker 1: their best players.
Speaker 2: Right this year? He is their best player.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go, and Logan gover to the Marior's
Speaker 1: best player this year. And look at that, we're talking
Speaker 1: about trading him. How unfortunate. Before we get to our
Speaker 1: next question, let's hear a word from Game Time. There's
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Speaker 1: Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Penultimate question, lyle, let me.
Speaker 2: Ask this one because I think it's my turndd to
Speaker 2: ask you. But okay, you've got one for the end
Speaker 2: that's important that you fire up. So this next question
Speaker 2: is on Instagram. Always a favorite question. By the way,
Speaker 2: when we get questions on this topic, let me again
Speaker 2: make sure I have the name right, because again, we
Speaker 2: appreciate everybody that sends in these questions. They're awesome, thanks
Speaker 2: for putting in the time to think about it. But
Speaker 2: this is from k Jaketta on Instagram and they and
Speaker 2: they said, what happened to Katuk. Let me say, you
Speaker 2: think we forgot about our guy, You think we just
Speaker 2: forgot about him? Absolutely not. People. There's two reasons the
Speaker 2: Kyle Talker talk on this podcast has simmered in the
Speaker 2: last few weeks. Number One, he's been injured for about
Speaker 2: three months. He's now back healthy, but he was injured
Speaker 2: for a long time. Number Two, the trade deadline ended.
Speaker 2: There is in this current time period no possible way
Speaker 2: in which the Seattle Mariners could acquire Kyle Talker. However,
Speaker 2: the very first day the off season starts, we're fucking back.
Speaker 2: We are gonna miss no time, waste no time. As
Speaker 2: soon as the off season starts and Kyle Discourse and
Speaker 2: Kyle Tucker Discourse will start again.
Speaker 1: The hike is still on. In case people were wondering,
Speaker 1: that hasn't changed if the Mariner's trade for him. In December,
Speaker 1: we're hiking a mountain in the snow.
Speaker 2: Mm hmm. We're going. We're vlogging again, so group outing
Speaker 2: anyone that wants to join us. We'll let people know
Speaker 2: where we're going. It's probably gonna be mailbox peak. We'll
Speaker 2: let you know the day, We'll let you know the time.
Speaker 2: If you want to join meet up with us, and
Speaker 2: we're going like we're doubling dout, Like it'll be this
Speaker 2: off season that offers on the table. It'll be when
Speaker 2: he's a free agent after twenty twenty five, when the
Speaker 2: offer's on the table. If he wears a Mariners uniform,
Speaker 2: we're hiking.
Speaker 1: You know. Sources have said that Kyle Tucker heard some
Speaker 1: of these rumors and has been dodging the Marine Layer
Speaker 1: podcast in hopes of having this idea of going to
Speaker 1: Seattle go away.
Speaker 2: Oh, I couldn't help but notice when he was rehabbing
Speaker 2: in Seattle the last time the Astros were here, he
Speaker 2: was he was pretty quick to make his way into
Speaker 2: the dugout.
Speaker 1: Hmmm.
Speaker 2: He might have wanted to either he either wanted to
Speaker 2: wanted to dodge the mic because he couldn't be seen,
Speaker 2: He couldn't be seen tampering and he or and or
Speaker 2: he wants to keep everything under wraps. He can't let
Speaker 2: the people know he wants out of Houston. He can't
Speaker 2: let the people know he actually loves hitting in Seattle.
Speaker 2: He can't let the people know he's gonna try to
Speaker 2: cook up a trade to get to Seattle this offseason.
Speaker 1: The astros purposely holding him away from the Marror nurse.
Speaker 2: Oh, I think they are, of course they are. You
Speaker 2: think the astros want to uniform? No, yeah, hm hmm, there,
Speaker 2: I bet you. If it was up to the astros,
Speaker 2: he wouldn't have even been on that trip in the
Speaker 2: first place. Don't even let him get a sniff of
Speaker 2: Pacific Northwest Air. Don't don't even let him get a
Speaker 2: second of looking around and being like, Wow, this place
Speaker 2: rules way better than that industrial dump of Houston. I'm
Speaker 2: getting out of here.
Speaker 1: We'll see you soon, Katuck. We'll see you soon. We
Speaker 1: did not forget about you. No.
Speaker 2: Also, I can't help but notice nobody Uh wait, I
Speaker 2: was a gonna say. I can't help but notice nobody
Speaker 2: on the Mariners wear his number thirty? Wait does Austin
Speaker 2: both wear thirty? I think, so, well, he's changing his number. Actually, well,
Speaker 2: he's a free agent at the end of the year.
Speaker 2: So either it either he'd come back and he changes number,
Speaker 2: or it would be available, or Vote signs back first,
Speaker 2: keeps the number. Then they trade for Katok. He goes
Speaker 2: up to Austin Vote and says, listen, what do we
Speaker 2: have to work out for me to wear number thirty
Speaker 2: and both I'm sure would oblige or.
Speaker 1: No, actually it's backwards. Both goes up to Katuck and says,
Speaker 1: I will take a Bentley for number thirty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and actually I don't know if Kyle Tucker has
Speaker 2: that type of money yet.
Speaker 1: Uh. If he's a Mariner he will have a nice
Speaker 1: big contract. Oh so yeah, he's gonna have that money.
Speaker 1: And what does he get making his last year of
Speaker 1: BARB twenty million dollars? Yet he can afford a Bentley Lyle?
Speaker 2: That's fair? Also, vote does war thirty? I just confirm that.
Speaker 2: So yeah, both can get a Bentley. Katuck gets the number,
Speaker 2: they both get a Mariner's World Series.
Speaker 1: Hmmm, well I like that idea. Look at look at us, Austin.
Speaker 1: We're working in your favor here.
Speaker 2: Mm hmm. You get to be you get to be
Speaker 2: part of a world series roster. All you have to
Speaker 2: do is give up your number to one of the
Speaker 2: best left handed bats in all baseball.
Speaker 1: Last question this comes from I Will Fear I Will
Speaker 1: Fear No Evil on Instagram. The question is if you're
Speaker 1: a GM, sorry, let me reframe this question. If you're
Speaker 1: the Mariners GM, what specific moves do you make this
Speaker 1: offseason all right?
Speaker 2: I've been saving some energy for this one. So here
Speaker 2: we go. Here's exactly what I would do. I'm trading
Speaker 2: for and extending Vlattie. I'm signing Anthony Sontan Dare, and
Speaker 2: within all that, I am walking right up to the Mariners.
Speaker 2: I am walking right up to the Mariners ownership calling
Speaker 2: them out for their cheap and still mindset, demanding that
Speaker 2: they start spending money. Stop lying to the people about
Speaker 2: how much money you really do or don't have, stop
Speaker 2: acting like mister crabs, and start spending. And if they
Speaker 2: say no, I am slamming my hands on the desk,
Speaker 2: telling them if you refuse these demands, I'm calling an
Speaker 2: emergency press conference, throwing every single one of you under
Speaker 2: the bus with the exact quote of this. No beating
Speaker 2: around the bush, just straight backs, I would say, and
Speaker 2: I quote, if I could spend more money, I would,
Speaker 2: ownership won't let me end quote right there. They have
Speaker 2: two options. Spend the money to get these players. AKA,
Speaker 2: if you're training for Vladdie, you're also extending them. Spend
Speaker 2: the money to get these players, or be called out
Speaker 2: and let the entire public know what you've really been
Speaker 2: doing all along, which everybody already knows. But then it's confirmed, whoof.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, I have a lot of questions here. First though,
Speaker 1: do you make it down to the press conference before
Speaker 1: you get fired?
Speaker 2: You think I'm telling them what I'm gonna say in
Speaker 2: that press cap Oh wait, actually what am I saying?
Speaker 2: I just admitted that I was going to say what
Speaker 2: i'd say. M all right. I'd have a whistleblower send
Speaker 2: texts to everybody in the media saying there's a press
Speaker 2: conference that you're not gonna want to miss in fifteen minutes,
Speaker 2: and you better be there.
Speaker 1: There is going to be a passing tweet firing you
Speaker 1: before you get down there.
Speaker 2: Breaking.
Speaker 1: While Goldstein has been fired keyword fired for his role
Speaker 1: of general manager of the Seattle Mariners.
Speaker 2: Good when they write in the papers cause of firing,
Speaker 2: cause of firing, telling the truth.
Speaker 1: Sources tell ESPN that he cussed out ownership and called
Speaker 1: him quote, yeah, a lot of things, Well, spend some money.
Speaker 2: The question was what would I do if I was
Speaker 2: the GM. That right there is what I would do.
Speaker 2: I care about the city, I care about the fans,
Speaker 2: I care about the team winning. I care about the players,
Speaker 2: and every single one of them deserves transparency and buy it.
Speaker 2: And if they ain't willing to give it, as a
Speaker 2: person in power for the time being, until I get
Speaker 2: fired two minutes later, I'm letting everybody know why it's
Speaker 2: not happening. You know how pissed off i'd be as
Speaker 2: a GM and I just had my hands tied behind
Speaker 2: my back by ownership. I don't know how Jerry and
Speaker 2: Justin do it. I really don't how They've gone as
Speaker 2: many years as they've gone in this organization, and you
Speaker 2: know how badly they probably want to say it like
Speaker 2: it's like I mean, they probably know everybody can read
Speaker 2: the tea leaves, but they probably want to say it's
Speaker 2: so bad, but they can't do.
Speaker 1: You know what makes up for it These enormous paychecks
Speaker 1: that cash in your bank account every two weeks.
Speaker 2: Hm. No, yeah, I'm gonna be honest. I'm a man
Speaker 2: of the people. Paychecks as I hit my MIC paychecks
Speaker 2: winning a World series, I'm a man of the people.
Speaker 1: Well, I think winning a World Series is up there
Speaker 1: for them too, But the paychecks are pretty nice, dude.
Speaker 1: You got to do to keep a job.
Speaker 2: You know what makes you money? Winning a World Series.
Speaker 1: Well, you're not wrong, You're not wrong. There, I will
Speaker 1: let you, can you give you a realistic plan what
Speaker 1: you do as a GM. Not Let's I like your
Speaker 1: first idea. Let's now say, in a realistic sense this offseason,
Speaker 1: what would you do?
Speaker 2: Fine, I will be more realistic. However, that is what
Speaker 2: I that is what i'd actually do if I was
Speaker 2: the GM. But fine, also come to your question and
Speaker 2: put out what is a more quote unquote reasonable off season.
Speaker 2: I'll say this an off scene, that an off season
Speaker 2: that is more likely for what a Mariner's off season
Speaker 2: would look like if I was a GM. That's what
Speaker 2: I'm doing. Anyway, I I would I would probably sign
Speaker 2: Christian Walker because you need a first baseman. You really
Speaker 2: really need a first baseman. Like there is an opportunity
Speaker 2: where you could have Luke Raley and Tyler Lockler platoon
Speaker 2: next year. But if you have a chance to sign
Speaker 2: Christian Walker, go sign Christian Walker, because he, like Pete,
Speaker 2: would be great too. But he's probably gonna command more
Speaker 2: money in a longer contract than Walker. Well, so I'll
Speaker 2: say Walker, and then I would say, I mean I
Speaker 2: would love to go find one more infield er like,
Speaker 2: I'd love to go find a third baseman, but I
Speaker 2: don't know how many third basemen are out there after
Speaker 2: the Matt Chapman extension other than Alex Bregman, who there's
Speaker 2: no way he'll sign here. So maybe a trade for somebody.
Speaker 2: Maybe you can find somebody else in free agency. But
Speaker 2: I'd say Christian Walker is the big one. And I
Speaker 2: know I'm partly stealing your answer here, but you gotta
Speaker 2: shed some of the dead weight off this roster, because
Speaker 2: there is dead weight, and you cannot run this roster
Speaker 2: back next year because we've seen all the problems it's caused.
Speaker 1: Okay, my unrealistic expectation on myself as Mariners general manager
Speaker 1: this offseason, I would write a legally binding declaration. I
Speaker 1: would write into law at T Mobile Park that Abraham
Speaker 1: Toro would be barred from ever entering the Mariners clubhouse
Speaker 1: ever again, therefore making it impossible that he ever suit
Speaker 1: up in a Seattle Mariners uniform ever again, and that
Speaker 1: instantly would make it the greatest Mariners off season of
Speaker 1: all time.
Speaker 2: Counterpoint, what if he's in an MVP race, the Mariners
Speaker 2: have the opportunity to trade for him straight up for
Speaker 2: cash considerations.
Speaker 1: See, you went like right past the factual state of
Speaker 1: the universe when you let that sentence out. I think
Speaker 1: I don't know if I heard you correct that. I
Speaker 1: just want to clarify you said.
Speaker 2: Abraham Torrel in MVP can consideration hypothetical world dog, I'm
Speaker 2: asking a question.
Speaker 1: Was there what was the last MVP that was da
Speaker 1: Fade before he won the MVP.
Speaker 2: If I can change and you can change, everyone can change.
Speaker 2: Aka Abe Toro can change.
Speaker 1: No, he can't.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: He's never allowed in the Mariners Clubhouse ever? Again?
Speaker 2: Are we getting that plastered on the wall somewhere? We
Speaker 2: gott in a poster? Are we getting a quote?
Speaker 1: Yeah, right outside the Mariner's Clubhouse. It's gonna say say
Speaker 1: no to Abe. I'm painting it. You know, football coaches
Speaker 1: love their slogans well as general manager. There's only gonna
Speaker 1: be one slogan painted. It's gonna be right there outside
Speaker 1: the clubhouse.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Seattle Maryor Clubhouse unless your name is
Speaker 2: Abe Toro.
Speaker 1: See you.
Speaker 2: All right? Now? What is your realistic?
Speaker 1: One realistic is you eat Mitchaniker's money in your DFA
Speaker 1: just as you said, shed some of the dead weight
Speaker 1: on this roster. They can't carry this many outfielders, and
Speaker 1: he looks like right now that he's going to play
Speaker 1: the least him out. Sign Christian Walker to play first base,
Speaker 1: and then use every last resource possible to make sure
Speaker 1: Julio is ready to have a one hundredth percentile twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five season, because as it stands right now, based
Speaker 1: on the money available to you, there is going to
Speaker 1: be no bigger addition this offseason than getting Julio from
Speaker 1: the state he's at offensively right now to a state
Speaker 1: that he can achieve when he exceeds every expectation and
Speaker 1: he plays to his one hundred percentile of talent.
Speaker 2: Well, I hope they find a way to do that again,
Speaker 2: I said earlier in the podcast, I just can't let
Speaker 2: my expectations get too high firm at this point in
Speaker 2: terms of what he'll do at the plate. That being said,
Speaker 2: if he blows everybody's expectations out of the water and
Speaker 2: goes nuclear next year, great, because that is how this
Speaker 2: team can find a way to a World Series, especially
Speaker 2: with this pitching staff.
Speaker 1: Not gonna sign Juan Soto. You might as well have
Speaker 1: one soda at home. Lile and that's that's that's whatever
Speaker 1: improvements you can get out of Julio Rodriguez, that is that?
Speaker 1: Or is that unfair? Or should I say Tony Taters
Speaker 1: at home?
Speaker 2: Well, Juan Soto's an atrocious defender where Julio's elite. But
Speaker 2: in terms of a hitter.
Speaker 1: Or hitting sense, I mean, I think we.
Speaker 2: Know Julio's absolute peak. He can get. I think Julio's
Speaker 2: absolute peak in terms of the talent he has. Yes,
Speaker 2: he closer to Juan Soto than Anthony sontandren I think.
Speaker 2: So I'm not saying he is one Soto because Won
Speaker 2: Soto might be the best pure hitter that we'll see
Speaker 2: in our generation. There is a real world that could happen.
Speaker 2: Now that Aaron Judge guy has something to say about
Speaker 2: that too, But I'm just saying there is a world
Speaker 2: where that happens. He's like, he's certainly on pace to
Speaker 2: have a case. But yeah, like, I think Julio is
Speaker 2: closer in terms of top end talent, what his absolute
Speaker 2: stealing is to Juan Soto than Santander, but he just
Speaker 2: hasn't come close to that as a late But yeah,
Speaker 2: so so Wan Soto at home I guess it's possible.
Speaker 1: That's what they're gonna have to do. It's literally we
Speaker 1: can't afford to go out to eat. We're gonna need
Speaker 1: to make something at home this offseason.
Speaker 2: Mm hm.
Speaker 1: And your best home cooking is that, dude? We're a
Speaker 1: number forty four in center field?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree?
Speaker 1: You like that analogy?
Speaker 2: I was good, it was very good.
Speaker 1: That's great depression.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great way to end the show. Perfect,
Speaker 2: perfect transit or like a perfect banger of a line
Speaker 2: to wrap up this podcast. Thank you all all you guys.
Speaker 2: By the way, who's send in questions? We're sorry if
Speaker 2: we couldn't get to everybody's those that we answered, they
Speaker 2: were awesome. Thanks for being creative. We love doing these.
Speaker 2: We love taking your guys's questions. It's always fun. So
Speaker 2: we'll do another one of these, I'm sure here soon enough,
Speaker 2: in a few weeks. But yeah, all the questions were great,
Speaker 2: keep them coming when we do these. With that, I'll
Speaker 2: just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast.
Speaker 2: You guys know the drill. You want to listen to
Speaker 2: the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you
Speaker 2: get your audio pods, make sure to download these episodes.
Speaker 2: Make sure to rate and review, leave it as five
Speaker 2: stars if you're listening to the pod. If you're watching,
Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe, make sure to drop a leg
Speaker 2: on the video. Make sure to comment, and if you're
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Speaker 2: follow us Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod.
Speaker 2: That's TJ.
Speaker 1: I'm Lyle.
Speaker 2: As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. I'll
Speaker 2: talk to you soon.