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Speaker 1: It is fish Bites time once again. Anytime can be

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Speaker 1: fish Bites time. Honestly, just subscribe to the fish Stripes

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Speaker 1: channel on your preferred podcast provider, new episodes delivered straight

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Speaker 1: to you, or go ahead and browse for interviews and

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Speaker 1: analysis from earlier in twenty nineteen. We did a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of that this year. I am Eli Sussman, the

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Speaker 1: managing editor at fish Stripes. Appreciate all of you for

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Speaker 1: tuning in for our continued Miami Marlin's coverage coming up

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Speaker 1: on this episode. In an interview with longtime listener and

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Speaker 1: a first time guest, Daniel Devivo. For the past couple

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Speaker 1: of years, he has curated a database from Marlin's prospects.

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Speaker 1: It's like anything that you'll find previously on fish Stripes

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Speaker 1: or elsewhere in the public domain. So with his blessing,

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Speaker 1: I'll be sharing the latest version on the website and

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Speaker 1: discussing a bunch of key players with him. That's gonna

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Speaker 1: be the second half of this episode. So what should

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Speaker 1: we do until then? How about marlins arbitration eligibles? Monday

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Speaker 1: at eight pm Eastern Time is the MLB non tender deadline,

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Speaker 1: and there's a strong chance no guarantees, but I'd say

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Speaker 1: at least a fifty percent chance that the Marlins do

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Speaker 1: something on the transaction front as a result of their

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Speaker 1: own arbitration class or any of the players eligible on

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Speaker 1: the other twenty nineteens. It is ultimately a deadline that

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Speaker 1: should see perhaps a couple dozen new players added into

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Speaker 1: the free agent pool and perhaps a handful of trades

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Speaker 1: based on how these teams value their arbitration eligible players.

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Speaker 1: Before going into that, I think it's appropriate to do

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Speaker 1: a quick primer to what MLB arbitration is, as you

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Speaker 1: may already know with players at the major league level,

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Speaker 1: once you get six full years of service time, that's

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Speaker 1: when you can test free agency and get paid at

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Speaker 1: your quote unquote market value as a player. Until then,

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Speaker 1: you're what i'd call team controlled in that you don't

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Speaker 1: fully earn what the market says. It's based on the

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Speaker 1: leverage that you have to negotiate with your own team.

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Speaker 1: The first couple of years pre arbitration eligibility, players generally

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Speaker 1: earn right around the MLB league minimum, which is still

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Speaker 1: a great way to make a living in the high

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Speaker 1: six figures, but just a fraction of what these players

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Speaker 1: probably should be making the next couple years after that

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Speaker 1: are your arbitration years. In most cases three and sometimes

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Speaker 1: based on your precise service time, you can be a

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Speaker 1: super two player, which means going into arbitration a little

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Speaker 1: early and actually getting four shots to earn pay raises.

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Speaker 1: In arbitration, the process involves your own player representatives coming

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Speaker 1: up with a proposed salary for the upcoming season, then

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Speaker 1: representatives from the team that you play for coming up

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Speaker 1: with their own lower proposal for that earnings, and trying

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Speaker 1: to come to an agreement. In most cases, that's what

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Speaker 1: happens these days, is that although it's called the arbitration process,

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Speaker 1: there are fewer and fewer players actually going to arbitration,

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Speaker 1: instead reaching an agreement at a midpoint salary before it

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Speaker 1: comes to that type of hearing. Because when you do

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Speaker 1: go to a hearing, it involves a quote unquote independent

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Speaker 1: third party that takes into account the team's proposal, the

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Speaker 1: player's proposal, and the precedent for similar players who had

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Speaker 1: that kind of performance and service time at a certain position,

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Speaker 1: and trying to come up with a fair ruling on

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Speaker 1: what the players should be earning. Having those all those

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Speaker 1: people in the same room can get contentious where you

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Speaker 1: have obviously the players representative trying to hype him up,

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Speaker 1: but the team trying to tear him down and justifying

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Speaker 1: that player being less valuable than he thinks he really is.

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Speaker 1: The Marlins last year, coming into the twenty nineteen season,

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Speaker 1: they were fortunate to avoid all arbitration hearings. They settled

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Speaker 1: with their players prior to that being necessary. That includes JT.

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Speaker 1: Real Muto. They were able to settle on his salary

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Speaker 1: right before trading him to the Phillies. The year before that, though,

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Speaker 1: the Marlins did have a couple of hearings involving Dan

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Speaker 1: Streili and Justin Bohr and I think also real Mutail.

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Speaker 1: They did at least two, if not three hearings the

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Speaker 1: prior year, and hopefully they'll avoid that kind of stuff

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Speaker 1: going forward because it just creates unnecessary tension. And the

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Speaker 1: industry around arbitration, I should say, the analysis around this

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Speaker 1: process is built up to such an extent that teams

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Speaker 1: and players they basically know what the value is. It's

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Speaker 1: not precise, but it's come pretty close to that, and

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Speaker 1: this coming year should be. It's not going to be

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Speaker 1: very straightforward, but I'd say it's relatively low stakes arbitration

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Speaker 1: class because the Marlins have a small class this year,

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Speaker 1: only three players that are in that middle ground to

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Speaker 1: be eligible where they have more than two and a

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Speaker 1: half years of service time but less than six years.

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Speaker 1: The three players eligible heading into twenty twenty left hander

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Speaker 1: Adam Connelly, infielder Slash outfielder but mostly infielder JT. Riddle,

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Speaker 1: and right hander Jose Urina. Those are the three players.

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Speaker 1: And what we'll be doing in this situation is trying

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Speaker 1: to anticipate what the Marlins will do with these players,

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Speaker 1: and I want to issue my own opinions on what

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Speaker 1: should be done with them. A big resource in this

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Speaker 1: process will be Matt Schwartz. He's a contributor for MLB

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Speaker 1: Trade Rumors and he has developed a projection system developed

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Speaker 1: along time ago and most of my adult life if

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Speaker 1: I do remember correctly, where he has fine tuned this

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Speaker 1: model for projecting how much these players are gonna earn

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Speaker 1: as arbitration eligible players. For Adam Connelly, this is gonna

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Speaker 1: be his second year of arbitration eligibility. He earned one

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Speaker 1: point one three million dollars in twenty nineteen, and although

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Speaker 1: he struggled a lot in twenty nineteen, and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get to that in a moment. He is projected to

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Speaker 1: get a raised to one point six million, from one

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Speaker 1: point one to three to one point six nearly half

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Speaker 1: a million dollar rays for him JT. Riddle. This is

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Speaker 1: his first time in arbitration eligibility, and as is the

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Speaker 1: case in virtually all cases, that means getting a raise

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Speaker 1: because prior to being in this position, he's earned basically

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Speaker 1: the league minimum and this time projected at about nine

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars in his first year eligibility. Aranya is

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Speaker 1: gonna be in his second year of eligibility. Last year

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Speaker 1: earned three point two million, and the RAYS he's expected

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Speaker 1: to get will bring him up to four million and

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Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand dollars rays, although he did miss a

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Speaker 1: significant chunk of this past season with injury. If the

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Speaker 1: Marlins are very very straightforward with this, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think they will be, but if they did simply tender

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Speaker 1: all these guys contracts right around that midpoint, they're talking

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Speaker 1: about about six point five million dollars added to their

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Speaker 1: payroll in twenty twenty. This is one of the smallest

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Speaker 1: arbitration classes out there among all thirty teams, it's more

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Speaker 1: typical to have five or six arbitration eligibles. There are

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Speaker 1: some teams that are in the double digits with players

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Speaker 1: in the service time range, So this is a drop

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Speaker 1: in the bucket relatively for a team that already projects

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Speaker 1: to have the lowest payroll in the majors in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: This is just a small chunk of that. But three

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Speaker 1: I think pretty interesting cases of guys who have had

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Speaker 1: some level of success in the major leagues but never

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Speaker 1: considered anything approaching an all Star caliber player, and guys

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Speaker 1: that don't seem to be in the cards to get

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Speaker 1: an extension in the near future, especially from the Marlins.

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Speaker 1: That's why we're going to break down their cases one

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Speaker 1: by one and try to sort out how they fit

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Speaker 1: into the Marlins moving forward, and whether or not they

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Speaker 1: fit at all, and how exactly the Marlins could utilize

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Speaker 1: their roster spot or their salary in a more efficient

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Speaker 1: way for this upcoming season. Going in alphabetical order with

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Speaker 1: these arbitration eligibles, first up is going to be Adam Connolly,

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Speaker 1: who in twenty nineteen was terrible for the Marlins, a

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Speaker 1: six point five to three earned run average, a five

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Speaker 1: point one to nine fielder independent pitching in sixty and

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Speaker 1: two thirds endings, pitched all of that out of the bullpen.

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Speaker 1: Connolly is going to be entering his age thirty season.

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Speaker 1: At this moment, he is twenty nine and a half,

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Speaker 1: and as I mentioned, his projection from MLB trade rumors

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Speaker 1: is one point six million dollars, which is not a

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Speaker 1: lot of money. It's about tripled the major league minimum salary,

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Speaker 1: but it's less than most decent free agent relievers. And

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Speaker 1: this is a guy that just one year prior to that,

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, his first year in a converted reliever role,

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Speaker 1: he was pretty He was pretty good. He had a

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Speaker 1: four point h nine ERA, a three point five nine

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Speaker 1: fifth in fifty and two thirds endings in twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: That was a year where he had very limited relief experience,

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Speaker 1: and yet was a pretty hot topic at that trade deadline,

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Speaker 1: where it looked like the Marlins had some opportunities to

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Speaker 1: flip him for prospects in case they didn't necessarily trust

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Speaker 1: him moving forward. But they did trust him. The big

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Speaker 1: reason why is that his raw stuff is pretty good.

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Speaker 1: That was the impetus for moving him to the bullpen

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Speaker 1: in the first place, where he had fairly mediocre results

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Speaker 1: as a starting pitcher for the Marlins in previous years.

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Speaker 1: But with a move to the bullpen, he had an

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Speaker 1: extraordinary spike in his fastball velocity north of ninety five

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Speaker 1: miles per hour as an average fastball and topping out

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Speaker 1: at ninety seven sometimes ninety eight miles per hour from

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Speaker 1: the left side, which is so extra extraordinarily rare. If

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Speaker 1: you look around baseball, some of the nastiest relievers are

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Speaker 1: ones that are slim left handers with high nineties fastballs.

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Speaker 1: Look no further than Josh Hater of the Brewers, or

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Speaker 1: all this Chapman of the Yankees. This is the prototype

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Speaker 1: that the Marlins were dreaming of when they moved into

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Speaker 1: the bullpen and saw this huge spike in his stuff.

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Speaker 1: That if he's a long, lean guy that gets good extension,

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Speaker 1: gets closer to the plate, then the perceived velocity on

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Speaker 1: his pitch could be even higher than the actual velocity

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Speaker 1: on his pitch, making him really tough to hit. In

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Speaker 1: that twenty eighteen season, he had a slightly above average

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Speaker 1: strikeout rate. He was a three pitch guy, fastball, slider,

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Speaker 1: change up, and the changeup was really the key secondary pitch.

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Speaker 1: He had great results off that pitch. Again, this is

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Speaker 1: looking back at twenty eighteen, so two seasons ago, where

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Speaker 1: opponents against that change up that year he hit one

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Speaker 1: seventy five, a three to sixteen slugging percentage, a forty

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Speaker 1: eight percent with rate. Just to understand that, that means

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Speaker 1: nearly half the time when opponents swung at his changeup,

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Speaker 1: they missed it. The problem is the changeup went from

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Speaker 1: being this incredible weapon for him to being his biggest

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Speaker 1: liability in twenty nineteen, allowing a four to eleven batting

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Speaker 1: average against seven point thirty two slugging percentage and the

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Speaker 1: whiff rate on the pitch nearly cut in half from

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Speaker 1: forty eight percent to twenty six percent. I had done

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Speaker 1: some analysis during the summer trying to figure out why

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Speaker 1: it was that a guy throwing just as hard as

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Speaker 1: he did the previous year was having such a big

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Speaker 1: drop off in success, And at that point there were

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Speaker 1: some red flags with the movement of his changeup and

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Speaker 1: the velocity of it, where he seemed to be overthrowing

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Speaker 1: the pitch where it wasn't getting the same differential with

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Speaker 1: his fastballs. Before and it wasn't moving as much vertically

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Speaker 1: or horizontally, so it was easier to track and it

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Speaker 1: was easier to recognize out of the hand by opposing batters.

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Speaker 1: But following up on those numbers now, I'd say that

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Speaker 1: they normalized quite a bit, where when all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden done, he still got a nine mile per hour

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Speaker 1: separation between those two pitches. The movement on the pitches

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Speaker 1: was not the same as it was the previous year,

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Speaker 1: but it was still notable. It doesn't fully explain exactly

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Speaker 1: what went wrong with him. There was surely some bad

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Speaker 1: luck going on here if you look at his weighted

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Speaker 1: on bass average against and just expected weighted on base

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Speaker 1: average based on how the balls were actually hit by

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Speaker 1: his opponents, trying to approximate what is what should have

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Speaker 1: been the results, the expected results versus the actual results,

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Speaker 1: he was extremely unlucky with the changeup a four point

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Speaker 1: eighty weighted on base average, which is about as bad

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Speaker 1: as it gainst just truly terrible, non competitive pitch. But

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Speaker 1: the expected weighted on base it was three point fifty six,

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Speaker 1: which is well below average, but acceptable and something that

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Speaker 1: you can see a guy being able to compete with

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Speaker 1: as long as he didn't get overexposed with the pitch.

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Speaker 1: In reality, kindly lost confidence in the changeup. Either that

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Speaker 1: or he was instructed not to use it as much,

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Speaker 1: where the usage rate on his changeup went down a lot.

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Speaker 1: From twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen, he played around with

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Speaker 1: a new breaking ball. Aside from the slider, he experimented

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Speaker 1: with a curve ball that was much slower and in

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Speaker 1: a limited sample size, that pitch really struggled for him

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Speaker 1: as well. We keep coming back to is the fact

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Speaker 1: that he's still a left hander with good extension on

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Speaker 1: his delivery who still has mid to high nineties fastball,

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Speaker 1: and that is so hard to find and makes him

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Speaker 1: a big curiosity for other teams across the league. Whether

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Speaker 1: or not the Marlins want to keep him or not.

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Speaker 1: The money should not really be an obstacle here. One

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Speaker 1: point six million dollars. If he's anything close to an

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Speaker 1: average reliever, then he's basically performing at market value, and

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Speaker 1: we know how few options the Marlins have internally. It

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Speaker 1: was for the opening day possibilities out of their bullpen

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Speaker 1: and pretty much building up from scratch, arguably the worst

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Speaker 1: bullpen in baseball last year, and that's when you include,

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Speaker 1: you know, two thirds of a season from Sergio Romo

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Speaker 1: and Nick Anderson, who were both pretty great. What they're

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Speaker 1: starting with heading into twenty nineteen is a total revamp

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Speaker 1: needed of that relief pitching operation. And I mean if

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Speaker 1: Connley bounces back, that plays a big role in doing it.

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Speaker 1: Once you settle on a salary with these players, they're

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Speaker 1: not fully guaranteed throughout the entire season. If they were

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Speaker 1: to bring Connolly into spring training and something looks awry

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Speaker 1: with him or he gets squeezed off because some of

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Speaker 1: their top prospects are ready to break through to the

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Speaker 1: opening day roster, then you can cut him for a

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Speaker 1: small fraction of that arbitration agreement. You saw that last

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Speaker 1: year with the Marlins and Dan Strayley. They got all

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Speaker 1: the way to opening Day and Straylee was very clearly

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Speaker 1: not one of their top five starting pitching options, so

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Speaker 1: they cut them, and it was somewhat of a surprising move.

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Speaker 1: But when you consider the fact that they only had

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Speaker 1: to pay him forty five days worth his salary instead

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Speaker 1: of the whole guaranteed amount less than one quarter of

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Speaker 1: what it was his guaranteed salary for the season, then

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Speaker 1: it's a lot easier to process and to get over.

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Speaker 1: Even for a low revenue team, it's okay to eat

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Speaker 1: that money if it's so apparent that the player is

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Speaker 1: not a fit for you. Connelly got to work with

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Speaker 1: pitching coach Mels Dottameyer Junior last year. Unless there was

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Speaker 1: some weird tension we don't know about, that would seem

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Speaker 1: to be an advantage for them moving forward. Is that

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Speaker 1: Stotta matter is ready very familiar with his pitch mix

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Speaker 1: and his stuff and his comfort level with those pitches.

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Speaker 1: So I would think another year together and not even

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Speaker 1: committing for the whole year, just bringing him to spring training.

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Speaker 1: They can make a lot of progress in that department,

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Speaker 1: getting to know each other better than they did before.

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Speaker 1: Tendering Connolly a contract for twenty twenty is relatively low risk,

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Speaker 1: and that's what I'd recommend that the Marlins do. Feels

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Speaker 1: like ancient history, doesn't it. That JT. Riddle opened up

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Speaker 1: the twenty nineteen Marlin season as the primary shortstop. He

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Speaker 1: was in a platoon with Miguel Rojas, but Riddle was

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Speaker 1: the left handed bat getting against right handed pitching, and

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Speaker 1: very very early results were encouraging A couple home runs

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Speaker 1: on the opening homestand of the season.

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Speaker 2: I believe it'll be Wednesday. As Riddle drives one out

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Speaker 2: to right field, black Man can't only watch. This would

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Speaker 2: hit the facade of.

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Speaker 1: Home run for JG. Riddle.

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Speaker 2: Well, the swing adjustments are working.

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Speaker 1: We've now seen him do this twice so far this season.

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Speaker 1: I think during his platform year of twenty nineteen, a

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Speaker 1: one eighty nine batting average in the majors, two point

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Speaker 1: thirty on base three seventy one slugging percentage in one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty nine plate appearances. That's why the projections

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Speaker 1: have him for a very slight raise up to nine

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars heading into twenty twenty. And the big

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Speaker 1: issue is that he's been displaced from the position that

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Speaker 1: he seemingly had entering this past season, where he struggled

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Speaker 1: early on got option down to triple A New Orleans.

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00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 1: Rojas took it off from there, not just playing very

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Speaker 1: smoothly at the position, but also emerging as a really

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Speaker 1: solid top of the lineup option as well, making him

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Speaker 1: pretty indispensable as a starting player. Riddle when he made

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Speaker 1: it back up to the majors later in the year,

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Speaker 1: he saw a lot of looks in center field, which

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Speaker 1: is a position that he had never played in professional ball.

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Speaker 1: This is a guy now, this was his age twenty

305
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Speaker 1: seventh season, and he had no experience at this position,

306
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Speaker 1: but by default where the Marlins had so many struggles

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Speaker 1: from other center fielders early in the year, he got

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Speaker 1: his opportunity. There a couple of nice plays, a couple

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Speaker 1: of really fundamental errors that made it pretty clear that

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Speaker 1: this was still a work in progress. And if this

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Speaker 1: is something you're picking up on the fly in your

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Speaker 1: late twenties, the odds aren't good for you getting the

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Speaker 1: patients from your MLV organization riddle. After a few more weeks,

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Speaker 1: he got sent down again to TRIPAA, and he finished

315
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Speaker 1: a year injured with a forearms train for the last

316
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Speaker 1: month month and a half of the regular season. This

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Speaker 1: is a guy that I was very encouraged by the

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Speaker 1: previous couple of years, where he did show himself to

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Speaker 1: be not just a good, but in my opinion, a

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Speaker 1: well above average defensive shortstop. And there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: value to be had in a guy that can play

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Speaker 1: that premium position and has basically league average power as well.

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Speaker 1: A career isolated power of one p thirty nine, the

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Speaker 1: difference between his average and a Cellian percentage eighteen home

325
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Speaker 1: runs in his career, about one full season's worth of

326
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Speaker 1: major league experience. Eighteen home runs while playing home games

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Speaker 1: at Marlins Park. I mean, that's nothing to sneeze at.

328
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Speaker 1: The fundamental skill, though, for major league players, is to

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Speaker 1: get on base, and Riddle has struggled to do that

330
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Speaker 1: even during his rookie year, a two eighty two on

331
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 1: base percentage, all the way down to two point thirty

332
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Speaker 1: this past year. The peripherals have gone pretty ugly. He

333
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 1: used to have a league average about strikeout rate the

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Speaker 1: previous two years, but that spiked way up here in

335
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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, striking out in thirty percent of his plate appearances.

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Speaker 1: During some of his rehab appearances, he was used at

337
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Speaker 1: other infield positions like second base and third base. So

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Speaker 1: for a guy that we already know is smooth at shortstop,

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Speaker 1: who has some interesting power and a swing that I

340
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Speaker 1: think can tap into that power occasionally against any level

341
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Speaker 1: of pitching, if he could be a true utility guy,

342
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, opportunities are open for him.

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Speaker 1: But it's it's just an awkward fit with the Marlins

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Speaker 1: at this time because of the strides that Miguel Rojas

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Speaker 1: made in twenty nineteen seeming looking like a fixture at

346
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Speaker 1: shortstop with Isan Diez, the big breakout that he had,

347
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Speaker 1: and the desire to get him very steady reps at

348
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Speaker 1: second base. In most troublesome for Riddle's case is probably

349
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Speaker 1: going to be John Birdie, of all people, assigned to

350
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Speaker 1: a low profile minor league deal at this time a

351
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Speaker 1: year ago, and took him a while to really get

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Speaker 1: a steady opportunity at the major league level, but he did.

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Speaker 1: Down the stretch the second half of the twenty nineteen season,

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Speaker 1: he was one of the most valuable players on the

355
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Speaker 1: Marlins because he was so impactful getting on base and

356
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Speaker 1: as a base runner, and because he was so versatile

357
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Speaker 1: playing second base, shortstop, third base, center field, corner, outfield,

358
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Speaker 1: pretty much any position. Bertie was able to do that,

359
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Speaker 1: and although he doesn't have quite as much prospect pedigree

360
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 1: as JT. Riddle does, there's only a couple of years

361
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: age difference between them, and already Bertie has shown that

362
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 1: kind of skill set at the major league level, whereas

363
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Speaker 1: Riddle at the major league level it's been a lot

364
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Speaker 1: more limited where you're just relying on his defense at

365
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Speaker 1: the short sup position, and if that's not really a

366
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Speaker 1: fit for this roster moving forward, then I don't even

367
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Speaker 1: know if it makes all that much sense for the

368
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Speaker 1: Marlins to bring him into camp coming into twenty twenty.

369
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Speaker 1: At that salary, it's a very low risk proposition, even

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Speaker 1: more so than Connelly, where you're not losing much at

371
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Speaker 1: all just to bring him in and give him a shot.

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Speaker 1: But the fit with this particular team is where I

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Speaker 1: take issue with it. The Marlins have rojas ISAs Hontez,

374
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Speaker 1: John Birdie, and of course Brian Anderson, who for once

375
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Speaker 1: they'd love to just stick him at third base and

376
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Speaker 1: let him get comfortable at that position. Then I mean,

377
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Speaker 1: the opportunity for Riddle to get playing time is if

378
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Speaker 1: you assume one of those guys suffers a serious injury.

379
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Speaker 1: If I was leading the Marlins front office, I'd be

380
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Speaker 1: shopping around JT.

381
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Speaker 2: Riddle.

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Speaker 1: The fit just doesn't seem great. He could maybe benefit

383
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Speaker 1: from a change in scenery, and perhaps most importantly of all,

384
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: trying to trade him for a low level minor league

385
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: prospect that opens up a spot on the forty man

386
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: roster for a team that we know has to be

387
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 1: shopping for impact bats and relief pitchers this offseason. Somebody's

388
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 1: gonna have to be expendable, and Riddle is a guy

389
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 1: that definitely fits that description right now. Now, the curious

390
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 1: case of Jose Urina, a five point two to one

391
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: er four point seventy four to fIF in his eighty

392
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Speaker 1: four and two thirds innings pitched for the Marlins last season,

393
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Speaker 1: most of that as a starting pitcher. You'll remember that

394
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: he was the opening day starter for the second straight year.

395
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Speaker 1: He suffered a back injury in mid June, and what

396
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 1: was unusual about that is that an announcing a backstrain,

397
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Speaker 1: the Marlins immediately placed him on the sixty day injured list,

398
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: ruling him out for two months on a previously unreported injury.

399
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: As it turns out, it was a herniated disc that

400
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: did in fact keep him sidelined for a couple months.

401
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: By the time he was able to make it back

402
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: in September, wasn't able to build up his endings workload

403
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: that he had before, and so the Marlins utilized him

404
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 1: as a reliever immediately in a destroyed bullpen. As we've mentioned,

405
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: the options for their bullpen down the stretch in the

406
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 1: season were pretty miserable, so they immediately plugged him into

407
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: a high leverage role closing games. He converted three saves,

408
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: and he also blew a few saves. He was not

409
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: good as a reliever in his first taste of that

410
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 1: role in a few years. The velocity played up from

411
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: his usual mid nineties all the way into the high nineties,

412
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: averaging about ninety seven miles per hour on the heater

413
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: as a late ending reliever, but he was getting hit

414
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: hard as well. Combined in both roles in twenty nineteen,

415
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 1: eight percent TILE out of one hundred in Major League Baseball,

416
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 1: and the average exit velocity against him twenty ninth percent

417
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: TILE and the hard hit rate against him. That's always

418
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: been the issue with Urine. He's had his hot stretches before,

419
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 1: but it just seems to be the fact that he

420
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: doesn't miss bats the way you would hope for someone

421
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 1: with his kind of raw stuff. His secondary pitches, none

422
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: of them in particular, have really jumped off the map

423
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 1: and turned into a trustee putaway pitch. One adjustment that

424
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 1: he's been making steadily is increasing the usage of his sinker.

425
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: He used to throw both a foreseamer and a sinker,

426
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: but under mal Stoda matter this past season he went

427
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 1: entirely with the sinker, considering he's able to maintain that velocity,

428
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,919
Speaker 1: his high end velocity, and if he gets more movement

429
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: on the pitch, then why not go with the pitch

430
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 1: that gives you a better shot at missing bats. It

431
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: just hasn't really worked out that way with any of

432
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: his secondary pitches being able to compliment off that not

433
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 1: getting the tunneling effect as they say that surprises hitters

434
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: and keeps them guessing as to what you're actually throwing.

435
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: He threw sinkers more than sixty percent of the time

436
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 1: this past year, so maybe a little bit too predictable

437
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 1: with what he's doing. And that carried over to when

438
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: they moved into the bullpen and he was even more

439
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: reliant on the sinker in that role. With pretty mediocre results,

440
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 1: we're not that far removed from him being decent. You'll

441
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: remember in September twenty eighteen he got onto this great run,

442
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 1: one of the lowest eras in the majors during that

443
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: final month of the season. But that's why you have

444
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 1: to take the late season numbers with a grain of

445
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 1: salt because of the level of competition you're facing, and

446
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: sometimes facing opponents that aren't all that motivated to perform

447
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: against you the way that they would be earlier in

448
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: the year, and sometimes facing lineups that are not designed

449
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 1: to be successful in the same way that they are

450
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: during the middle of the season. With Urania, he is

451
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 1: clearly the most expensive player of this arbitration class do

452
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: about four million dollars as projected by MLB trade rumors,

453
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: So do a raise, even though he was a below

454
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: average pitcher in twenty nineteen. The process values guys that

455
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: rack up endings, and although he missed so much time

456
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: with the back injury, still eighty four and two thirds

457
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 1: endings pitch. That's more than just about any reliever does,

458
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: and that's a significant amount of workload that is expected

459
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: to earn him a decent reward for that. He'll be

460
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 1: heading into his age twenty eighth season, and it's a

461
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 1: time where the Marlins have even more starting pitching options

462
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 1: than ever coming up. They did trade away a couple

463
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 1: guys last summer, like Zach Gallen and Trevor Richards, but

464
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 1: now they have six do Sanchez, Nick Knider, Robert Duggar

465
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: in more waves coming up behind them, and then not

466
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: too distant future. George Guzman, in my first glance at this,

467
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: I would think that some team will find him worth

468
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: the money, not necessarily the Marlins. That's a big question

469
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: for the Marlins to have, is that they have all

470
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 1: these really inexpensive, high upside arms that are just not

471
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: ready to pitch consistently in the major leagues. And Urnya

472
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 1: is not one of the top five guys and not

473
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: necessarily one of the top six in terms of quality

474
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 1: as a starting pitcher. You have to wonder exactly where

475
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: his fit on the roster is. The most likely fit

476
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: is as a late ending reliever of so few established

477
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 1: options already on the roster, and if you look at it,

478
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: four million dollars for one year, that's going to be

479
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: relatively low risk all things considered, certainly a higher risk

480
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 1: than bringing back Adam Connolly at one point six million dollars.

481
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: But if you look at the free agent market right now,

482
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:59,479
Speaker 1: the legitimately good free agents are getting well compensated. We

483
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: saw with Braves signing a couple relievers already going out

484
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 1: and getting Will Smith for three years forty million dollars

485
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: resigning Chris Martin for a pretty heavy two year deal.

486
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 1: To find guys that have a long track record and

487
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: are still relatively close to their prime. They may be

488
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: in the market for multi year deals or very incentive

489
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 1: laiden one year deals that would be even more expensive

490
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: than Urania would be. And you still have one more

491
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: year of arbitration eligibility with him beyond this coming year

492
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty one, so if things go well, you

493
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: still have this other opportunity to keep him around. As

494
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: with Conley, this is another guy that if you really

495
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: trust your pitching coach in mel Stotomeiter junior and the

496
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: guy that got to watch him first hands all throughout

497
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen when he was healthy at least and see

498
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 1: the way that his pitches move and come up with

499
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 1: new ideas of how to utilize them. No doubt, Aranya

500
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,479
Speaker 1: left a bad taste in people's mouths the way that

501
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: he ended this past season struggling in that role that

502
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 1: seems to be one that was well suited for him.

503
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,719
Speaker 1: But as I mentioned, you don't want to read too

504
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: much into the results that happened at the end of

505
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: the year. He's a guy that all things considered, the

506
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: injury that he suffered wasn't to his arm or anything

507
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: like that, and he has those couple of years prior

508
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 1: to that where he showed his durability. So sometimes the

509
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:29,239
Speaker 1: quantity of the workload outweighs the lack of quality of

510
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: that performance as well. He's someone that given that arbitration projection,

511
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: and then you have that one extra year to fall

512
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 1: back on. If he does perform well, his trade value

513
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: is probably a net positive right now, even if just

514
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: slightly positive. And I could understand the situation where the

515
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: Marlins want to close that chapter of the Urania experience

516
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: flip him for either younger players or ones that better

517
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: suit their needs moving forward, such as a veteran bat

518
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: that has some decent on basse skills. That's a situation

519
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: that I would definitely look out for moving forward, is

520
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 1: finding a way to replace Urania with someone that better

521
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: suits the needs of the organization at this time. Hopefully

522
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: the aftermath of Monday's non tender decisions create the environment

523
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 1: where the Marlins have to make moves, and if they

524
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 1: do anything really really unusual and impactful, I'll consider recording

525
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: an emergency episode of fish Bites to discuss and set

526
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: us up for the Winter meetings coming up very shortly.

527
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: In the meantime, let's bring on Daniel de Vivo to

528
00:31:41,320 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 1: cover all things Marlins Prospects enjoy. We are in the

529
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 1: calm before the Winter Meetings blizzard. The Marlins may soon

530
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: engage in some big headline moves. We've dedicated plenty of

531
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 1: airtime on the podcast to speculating about that and laying

532
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 1: out a plan for them. But right now, take pride

533
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 1: in all the impact talent the club already possesses in

534
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: its farm system. To deep dive into it, I've brought

535
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: on Daniel Devivo as a special guest checking in all

536
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 1: the way from Colombia, friend of Fish Stripes, a very

537
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: avid Marlins fan from thousands of miles away, and the

538
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: proprietor of an amazing document. He simply calls it his

539
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: Marlins Top Prospects List. I'm calling it the Marlins Organizational Database.

540
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: I love it. That's why we are presenting it front

541
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 1: and center on Fishtripes dot com. Whatever it is, Daniel,

542
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,239
Speaker 1: could you please explain to the audience what motivated you

543
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: to put it together in the first place and some

544
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: of the key features that fans may find helpful.

545
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 2: Sure, sure, sure, thank you, thank you so much for

546
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: having me on. It's definitely an honor. I love what

547
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 2: you guys are are doing. Yeah, I mean, I just

548
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: I love baseball. I loved baseball all my life because

549
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 2: of my dad played, probably played as a kid in school,

550
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 2: but wasn't good enough Marlins fan. Since ninety seven, my

551
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 2: parents let me stay up to watch Game seven of

552
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 2: the World Series, and you know, because of a twenty

553
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: year old kid from my home city, Brankiya, playing shortstop

554
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 2: for the Marlins, and he well, you know, he hit

555
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 2: his game winning World Series hit. After that, I was just,

556
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 2: you know, I'm in love with with the team and

557
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 2: and yeah, I just love the Marlins. So with that

558
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: in mind, when Jeter bought the team in twenty seventeen,

559
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 2: him and Bruce Sherman and a new ownership came in,

560
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 2: it was clear that the rebuild was coming. So I

561
00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:00,080
Speaker 2: decided to create and just an Excel sheet at the

562
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 2: moment as a hobby, just listing our best prospects according

563
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:08,439
Speaker 2: to Baseball America pipeline fangravs. You know, just averaged out

564
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: the ranks. See how it looked, how it looked like

565
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 2: at that point, it had like forty players. Maybe now

566
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 2: it's up two one hundred and eighteen prospects.

567
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:17,479
Speaker 1: Yeah.

568
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 2: Since then, yeah, since then, I've added key information, you know,

569
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 2: for each prospect, key stats and notes. And with all

570
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 2: that information, after I started doing that, I just decided

571
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: to start ranking them, you know, myself, taking into account

572
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 2: as as much information as possible.

573
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 1: And you did send me a version of this also

574
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 1: from last year, from following the twenty eighteen season, and

575
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 1: then again that's one for post twenty nineteen. So I

576
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 1: actually did some headshad comparisons for folks at home. Just

577
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: a couple of the names that I found that changed

578
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 1: a lot just from one year to the next. Well,

579
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 1: Zach Gallon, of course, he was number twenty on your

580
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: list at this time last year, and he went on

581
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: to like bolts all the way up to the majors

582
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: and exceling the majors, and I'm looking like a guy

583
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 1: that was much more talented than that pedigree would suggest.

584
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: Chris Valmont was the same way. He was all the

585
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 1: way down at number eighty four on the list last year,

586
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 1: and then by the time he was traded this past July,

587
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: he was almost a consensus top thirty guy. But speaking

588
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 1: of the players that are still in this organization, Gerari

589
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 1: and Carnacio, and he was number forty nine last year

590
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:27,800
Speaker 1: and you have him all the way up at number

591
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 1: fourteen now, so a huge rise from him. In a

592
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 1: very similar story for the right hander on Berto Mahea,

593
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 1: who's now on the Marlins forty man roster. He was

594
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: number sixty one last year and now you have him

595
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 1: at number twenty three. And then on the opposite side

596
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 1: of it, the guys that dropped a lot from twenty

597
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty nineteen, Joe Dunant, who was the former

598
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: second round pick, the nephew of Alex Rodriguez. He was

599
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 1: number fifteen last year, now down to number forty six.

600
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: James Nelson is a similar story, the former minor league

601
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: player year for the Marlins, number twelve, last year, number

602
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: fifty five. Now you were one of the also one

603
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 1: of the last holdouts on Tyler Kullak Island. Last year,

604
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: he still had him at number thirty five, even though

605
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: you know it wasn't pitching, it wasn't pitching well. And

606
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: now all the way down to eighty one and coming

607
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,800
Speaker 1: off a really rough year and just two more guys

608
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: Ethan Clark who was number forty five last year. He

609
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 1: surprisedly fired right answering this year. And also you Sell Soto,

610
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: the outfielder who was number twenty five last year and

611
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 1: ended up getting released in the middle of this summer.

612
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 2: That one was extremely surprising.

613
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, just throwing out those names. Any particular guy

614
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: or two among those that changed so much one year

615
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,879
Speaker 1: to the next that you want to talk about.

616
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 2: Uh, probably get out. I mean he he just you know,

617
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,399
Speaker 2: from year to year and cut off and he's been

618
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,760
Speaker 2: you know, just leaves and bounds much better. The power

619
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:58,919
Speaker 2: is coming, hitting tool, that arm is crazy. So as

620
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 2: he Priest's you know, levels and keeps doing it, i

621
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 2: mean not only keeps seeing it, but it gets better.

622
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 2: I mean he just had to jump. He invited to

623
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 2: the AFL killed it there too, So so yeah, definitely, definitely,

624
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 2: definitely him. I mean he's he jumped up into our

625
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 2: you know, in our outfield crazy depth, you know, right

626
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:21,760
Speaker 2: in there in the top spots.

627
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. Me, personally, I don't like to pour water on anybody.

628
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: I'm someone that's probably a little lower on in Carnacion

629
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 1: than most others recently because of the defense, where the

630
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:38,439
Speaker 1: arm strength is really impressive. He's he's a really big guy,

631
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 1: as you mentioned in the Marlins publicly talk very highly

632
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 1: of him. My big concerned is just whether or not

633
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: he's definitely you know, a guy trust defensively, or whether

634
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: he loses so much value that he'd be a lot

635
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 1: better on an American League team. But I mean that's

636
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 1: something that's going to take a while to play out.

637
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 1: Moving to other names, just any particular process spects that

638
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 1: you feel you're higher on than the consensus prospect evaluators

639
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: that that you are really confident in and may drink

640
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: differently on your list than on Baseball America or Pipeline.

641
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: Someone you're very high on and then someone might be

642
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: a little skeptical about compared to the rest of the business.

643
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 2: So I would say my top ten is pretty similar

644
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 2: to to you know, to other lists. But if I

645
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 2: were to pick out a player out of that, you know,

646
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 2: the top ten, which obviously is still pretty good and

647
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 2: on lists, I would say that guy's Trevor Rogers. You know,

648
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: his eights on my list, But I just, I mean,

649
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 2: I just have to say the guy is amazing. He's

650
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 2: throwing ninety four ninety five from the left side, not

651
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: to mention at six foot six with solid secondaries. You know,

652
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,399
Speaker 2: I think I haven't checked in in the last month,

653
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 2: but you know, Fangribs had him like at twenty. There

654
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 2: are a lot of people who have doubts on him.

655
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: You know, everyone talks about how his twenty nineteen season

656
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 2: was great, and it was, but they also like to

657
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 2: mention that his twenty eighteen, which was his first pro season,

658
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 2: was a bad one. That's just not true. I mean,

659
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 2: his Era five eighty two looks ugly, but if you

660
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 2: look deeper, I mean he actually had a three point

661
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: oh four FIP ten point fifty three k's per nine innings.

662
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's elite, man. I mean, especially for

663
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,360
Speaker 2: his first season, which you know was immediately in a

664
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: full season league. His babbitt was at three ninety two.

665
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 2: So I'm really really excited to see what he'll show

666
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 2: us in twenty twenty. And do you believe that he'll

667
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 2: be in a top one hundred list by this time

668
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 2: next year. A sleeper who people have kind of ridden off,

669
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 2: but that I feel, if he can put some things together,

670
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,879
Speaker 2: can become a pretty solid player is probably a name

671
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 2: people haven't heard in a long time. Thomas Jones. He

672
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 2: has actually been slowly improving every year. You know, he

673
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 2: definitely needs to bring that k rate down, just like

674
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 2: a lot of guys in our in our system. But

675
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 2: he's still twenty one. I mean, he had a one

676
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: hundred eleven w RC plus last year. He has solid

677
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 2: speed with I think twenty stolen bases this year, great

678
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 2: center fielder, solid arm. I've heard he's probably the second

679
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 2: best athlete in our system after Monte He's a guy

680
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 2: that could go either way. Like he could be sixty

681
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 2: if next year, if if he just you know, decreases results,

682
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,439
Speaker 2: or he can like actually go up and can turn

683
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 2: out to be a solid trade piece. If if if

684
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 2: he keeps on, you know, building on on these years

685
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:42,360
Speaker 2: that he's been having, probably started high a I'm assuming

686
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: next year prospects, I'm low on. We actually actually mentioned

687
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 2: him earlier. It has to be Joe Dunant. You know,

688
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 2: he has been going down on this list. I actually,

689
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 2: you know, I update this list once a month. That's

690
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 2: what I try to do first week of the month.

691
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 2: You know, obviously, now that it's one hundred and eighteen,

692
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 2: it's a while and it's still a hobby. But I

693
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 2: every month, I depending on results in what I'm hearing,

694
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 2: I update the list, and Joe Juna just every single

695
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 2: month he just keeps going down. He hasn't shown the

696
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 2: results that should come with a second round pickoff off

697
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 2: college baseball. He was supposed to be a powerful guy,

698
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 2: but hit only five home runs in five hundred and

699
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:27,439
Speaker 2: twenty five played appearances in double A last year. Isn't

700
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 2: really amazing that I know of at shortstop or third base.

701
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: Doesn't have the speed, so he just you know, he

702
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 2: needs to really put it together get that bat going

703
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty.

704
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, going back to Thomas Jones, it's so complicated to

705
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 1: try to project what the Marlins are going to do

706
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 1: with all their outfielders. And I know you have a

707
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 1: little section threadsheet that's going to update with trying to

708
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 1: project like where the players are going to start their

709
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 1: assignments in twenty twenty. But they have such an overload

710
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,399
Speaker 1: of players in those middle levels that you know are

711
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: still more than a year away, but very promising. And

712
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 1: he wasn't even like a real everyday player for Clinton,

713
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: but yet he had that hot streak. There was a

714
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: point there's like a little window where I thought he'd

715
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 1: be promoted to Jupiter, and instead they moved up Connor Scott,

716
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 1: and so they weren't able to really learn anything extra

717
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:19,360
Speaker 1: about Jones by pushing him against higher competition. It's going

718
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 1: to be really interesting, and I think inevitably we're probably

719
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 1: going to see some sort of trade with outfield prospects,

720
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: because if all these guys are healthy, then you simply

721
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 1: don't have playing time for all these guys, even with

722
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: a designated hitter spot at those levels. And then with

723
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 1: Dunand he was participating very briefly after the season. I

724
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: thought was kind of curious that he went to the

725
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: Dominican Winter League, which was a little unusual for a

726
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 1: player that was healthy during the regular season. For whatever

727
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 1: reason he got sent down there. I'm not sure whose

728
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 1: idea it was, but he was supposed to be the

729
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 1: starting third baseman for one of the teams, and he

730
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:58,359
Speaker 1: just struggled immediately out of the gate, and I think

731
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: he hit something like in mid one hundred's with an

732
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 1: OPS under four hundred. It was a real struggle and

733
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: he had to I'm not sure exactly what the word was,

734
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 1: but he almost resigned he left I think a little prematurely,

735
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: and I even saw some fans in Spanish like almost

736
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 1: celebrating the transaction because he was struggling on the thorarly

737
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 1: competitive team. And I agree with you that it's difficult

738
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: to see exactly where he goes, especially if you're not

739
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 1: sure defensively if he's a shortstop, because now there's enough

740
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 1: questions about the bat. The bat was supposed to be

741
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 1: that really sure tool that he had, and now there's

742
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 1: enough questions about that after spending all this time in

743
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 1: Double A and not really improving at all. One other

744
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: feature that you have in this database that I like

745
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: is you highlighted all the players that are going to

746
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 1: be eligible for the upcoming Rule five draft. That's just

747
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks from the date we're recording, and

748
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 1: by the time people listen to this, he'll be right

749
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: around the corner the Rule five draft. And out of

750
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: those one hundred and eighteen, I believe it's twenty five

751
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 1: or twenty six players that are going to be eligible

752
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 1: for the Rule five that Marlins did not protect on

753
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 1: the forty man roster. Of those guys, who are you

754
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 1: looking at as players that are you think are at

755
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 1: serious risk of being taken from the organization.

756
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: So I don't see anybody who has serious, serious risk

757
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 2: because you know, if if you if you you know,

758
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: looking at the list, you know the highest is Will Stewart,

759
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 2: who's currently at twenty fifth, which is probably where everybody

760
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 2: else around, you know, where every other list has him,

761
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 2: but mainly because he struggled at single at a high

762
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 2: a last year. So I would be really surprised, you know,

763
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 2: if if, if a major League team actually uses you know,

764
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 2: that last spot, even though as you mentioned to me,

765
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 2: rosters are increasing the twenty six next year, I'd be

766
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 2: really surprised if they do take him, you know, stash

767
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: him there for a year. I mean, he's he's supposed

768
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 2: to be really good, but not as good that you know,

769
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 2: you probably you know, be willing to do that. Other players,

770
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 2: you know, I can mention, are Tommy Egeld. He did

771
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,399
Speaker 2: struggle in twenty nineteen, so I doubt it, but I mean,

772
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 2: who knows. I mean, there's there's I remember how the

773
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 2: Twins grabbed kin Lee a few years ago. They sent

774
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 2: him back, but it's definitely a possibility. Albertorero, he has

775
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,360
Speaker 2: never played above single a so I doubt it. Chris

776
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 2: Torres also has never played above single a fielding. He's

777
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 2: definitely not up to par right now. I think he

778
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 2: had like forty errors with the lumber Kings this year,

779
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 2: so I highly doubted. Brigman. I would say is a possibility,

780
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 2: but again not not a big risk. I would say

781
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 2: Dylan Lee solid a reliever lefty, he may be a possibility,

782
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 2: but but yeah, I mean a player who we really

783
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 2: need to challenge next season to see what we have

784
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 2: in I believe is Luis Pallasios. He was signed in

785
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, so he would be eligible for real five

786
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:10,879
Speaker 2: after twenty twenty. Not this year, but twenty twenty. He's

787
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:15,280
Speaker 2: never played above the GCL, so so I mean, maybe

788
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,439
Speaker 2: not a huge risk, but we just need to see

789
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: what he has. We need to challenge him, you know,

790
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 2: just get him to full season, see what we have

791
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 2: in him, because the kid has been humiliating you know,

792
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 2: DSL GSL guys left and right. I mean, I really

793
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 2: want to know what we have in him because if

794
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 2: other teams like what they see also, they may take

795
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 2: a chance. Kid looks like he's really good.

796
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 1: Well that's a good adjective for it. Humiliating. I mean

797
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,839
Speaker 1: the numbers that he put out, all right, he did

798
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: it back to back years. It was the previous year

799
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen in the Dominican League, and then he had

800
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: this past year in the GCL where it's it's amazing

801
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 1: that he just refuses to walk anybody and he refuses

802
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: to allow home runs and then so the peripher les

803
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 1: are pretty much perfect, and then the actual run prevention

804
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: is pretty much perfect. And when he has someone performing

805
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 1: that way while also facing slightly older competition, although it

806
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 1: hasn't been a big challenge, as you said, because they

807
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 1: haven't pushed him up to a higher level yet to

808
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 1: face college kids and beyond that, we don't know all

809
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 1: that much so far. But the performance really jumps off

810
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 1: the page. And I think he's nineteen or I think it,

811
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 1: So that's gonna be cool.

812
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, his birthday is in July. I mean, he'll be

813
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 2: nineteen for a while. I mean we're talking zero point

814
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:35,919
Speaker 2: sixty whip last year, zero point sixty seven this year,

815
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,919
Speaker 2: one point eighty FIP last year, two point twenty two

816
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 2: FIP this year. He doesn't throw very hard, but I mean,

817
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 2: whatever he's doing, I mean, we just need to challenge him.

818
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 2: We need to see what we have in him, because

819
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 2: those numbers are just.

820
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: Crazy, just based on what you're looking at right now.

821
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: Assuming most of these guys make it through the off

822
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: season intact and part of the organization, which affiliate do

823
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: you think is going to have the most talented roster overall?

824
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 1: If I remember correctly having this discussion around this time

825
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 1: last year, Jupiter looked like it was going to be

826
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,479
Speaker 1: really loaded and there was some hidden miss there where

827
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:15,320
Speaker 1: a lot of the pitchers really lived up to the billing,

828
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 1: some of the hitters regressed. But as thing stands right now,

829
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 1: what do you think for the fans that are going

830
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 1: to be following the games live or for me that

831
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:25,479
Speaker 1: I'm going to be following the games live and bringing

832
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 1: highlights to the fans through MLB TV, m ILDTV, which

833
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 1: affiliates are is going to be the most stacked you think?

834
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 2: I mean, I would have to say the newly named

835
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 2: not sure how I feel about win Search that team

836
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 2: will have six to though Edward Cabrera, Nidert, Guzmand, maybe

837
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 2: Yams depending if he makes a team or not in

838
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: the rotation. I mean, and you know, on offensive side,

839
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 2: we're looking at what is Sue Sanchez Monte if he

840
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 2: doesn't make the Marlins chisholm lewin. I mean, I'm not

841
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 2: sure if I'll watched Marlins games for these guys during

842
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 2: this season. I mean, that's that's just nasty, man. That's

843
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 2: that looks like an amazing theme. They shrimp also look

844
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 2: like they'll be solid. You know, Brax and Roger Braxton,

845
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:16,359
Speaker 2: Rogers Holloway, maybe Mahia in their rotation, and you got

846
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 2: Blude and Victor. Yeah, I mean our system is pretty stack.

847
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 1: Maan. I'm pretty excited assuming those guys don't break camp

848
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 1: because they're ones like six to zero. That that personally,

849
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 1: I think I've seen everything I need to see with

850
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 1: Sixto to believe that he's a major league pitcher right now.

851
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 1: But I mean the expectation is with him and with

852
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: Monte and maybe a few others that the Marlins will

853
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 1: be conscious about the service time that they have, and

854
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 1: in most of those cases, if not all of those cases,

855
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 1: even if it's close to deserving of an opening day spot,

856
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 1: they'll keep them down for a little bit while just

857
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: to try to add an extra year down the line

858
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 1: of team control. It's because the Marlins are in such

859
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 1: this interesting situation where they have this big wave of

860
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 1: talent that's all coming in that almost the exact same time,

861
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 1: either at the very beginning of twenty twenty year in

862
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: the middle of the year, we're going to be pretty

863
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 1: overwhelmed with all these prospect promotions.

864
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:12,800
Speaker 2: No, completely agreed. It really is exciting to be a

865
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 2: Marlins fan right now. Maybe not on the major league level,

866
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 2: but I mean, look at it, look at this steps.

867
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 2: I mean, it's true what Michael Hill keeps saying and

868
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 2: saying and saying. I mean, it does get old, but

869
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 2: it's true. I mean it's coming.

870
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 1: As we speak, and as this offseason goes on. One

871
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 1: more year remaining on what's called the Professional Baseball Agreement

872
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 1: between MLB and Minor League Baseball, and the first proposal

873
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 1: that's been floated out calls for the elimination of forty

874
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:45,359
Speaker 1: two separate minor league affiliates, downsizing the entire Minor league

875
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 1: Baseball as we know it, removing some of these short

876
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 1: season and rookie league affiliates. For the Marlins case, it

877
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 1: would affect two of their affiliates, being the Clinton Lumberkings

878
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 1: and the Batavia Muckdogs, both of those teams have had

879
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 1: teams since then, I think since the nineteen thirties have

880
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: had continuous minor league baseball in those cities. Obviously the

881
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:11,399
Speaker 1: affiliations have changed over time, so I mean there's still

882
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: a lot of negotiation to go with that, and I

883
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 1: don't think anybody fully understands like the ramifications of it.

884
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:23,399
Speaker 1: But yeah, just generally speaking, I mean, it's that would

885
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 1: be a pretty big change to the way that we

886
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,760
Speaker 1: cover minor league prospects, wouldn't it. If you have smaller

887
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 1: farm systems and in different cities, it would really change

888
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:37,400
Speaker 1: like the entire industry in some respects.

889
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:41,359
Speaker 2: Definitely. I mean it's a tough one. I definitely see

890
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:44,800
Speaker 2: both sides of the debate. I mean, on MLB side,

891
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 2: the supposed advantages are clear. I mean, costs will decrease

892
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 2: with the cutting of teams and players, so it can

893
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 2: be redirected towards better lifestyle for the players who do remain.

894
00:51:57,000 --> 00:52:01,919
Speaker 2: Salary facilities, transportation makes sense. But on the other side

895
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: of the coin, jobs will be lost, communities will lose

896
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 2: their teams, So it's you know, it's it's something that

897
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 2: Minor League Baseball will obviously balk on it, you know,

898
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 2: is that typical good business versus community impact decision. Hopefully

899
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 2: they can find a balance that works for both sides.

900
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 2: But but I mean, you're completely right at this point.

901
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 2: How many rounds are there in a in a draft,

902
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, and how many of those players,

903
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 2: I mean, it's great to have the dream, but how

904
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 2: many of those players actually end up getting to the majors.

905
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 2: It's it's a hard debate, and definitely we need to

906
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 2: keep an eye on.

907
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 1: If for people that listen to the minor league show

908
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 1: that we do earning their stripes only get a player

909
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 1: on like almost always the last question we asked them

910
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 1: is for like a crazy lifestyle story that yeah, the

911
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 1: minor leagues and some of the very entertaining, but it's

912
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 1: you'd rather they have to endure that in the first place, right,

913
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 1: Because if you signed to be a professional baseball player

914
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 1: in your given year, if you're one of the top

915
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: one thousand incoming professional players in the world, and sometimes

916
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,240
Speaker 1: even if you're higher than that. We've had some really

917
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 1: former high draft picks that thought they were coming into

918
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 1: pro baseball and even on the fast track to being

919
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 1: major leaguers, and the fact that pretty much all of

920
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,239
Speaker 1: them have to endure one of these type of situations

921
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 1: on It makes them make all these sacrifices to their diet,

922
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 1: to their hygiene and all these other things that we

923
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 1: don't think about, what puts them through in the off

924
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 1: season to make up for the fact that they're not

925
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 1: earning much of anything during the regular season, and what

926
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 1: they have to do to keep themselves viable economically outside

927
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:51,360
Speaker 1: of playing baseball. It's all, it's all very complicated, and honestly,

928
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 1: it's just seems to be overdue, and what it's it's

929
00:53:55,480 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 1: overdue change, but getting it up to speed such dramatic differences,

930
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:06,360
Speaker 1: it doesn't the proposal that is coming out initially doesn't

931
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,920
Speaker 1: seem right. But I frankly don't have like a better

932
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:14,680
Speaker 1: specific plant myself, because it is it's long overdue in

933
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:20,480
Speaker 1: a lot of ways. Agreed, But just as this podcast

934
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:22,920
Speaker 1: appearance was long overdue. You've been listening for a while,

935
00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:25,760
Speaker 1: and I'm glad we finally brought you on, Daniel Devivo,

936
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,439
Speaker 1: all the way from Columbia. We probably should have brought

937
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:31,240
Speaker 1: you on last year when you had this other addition

938
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 1: of the lists from twenty eighteen that you brought to

939
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 1: my attention. But this year you added so many cool

940
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 1: new features, all those tabs projecting where players are going

941
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 1: to go, lining up the player stats from each of

942
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:45,840
Speaker 1: the last three to four years, grading their performance, condensing

943
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 1: their performance into a single letter grade. That helps it

944
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 1: easier for fans to digest. We're going to make sure

945
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 1: to attach that document to this podcast on fish strips

946
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 1: dot com. If you're listening to this on a certain

947
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 1: pod platform that make sure to click over to the

948
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 1: website to see the document. I'm sure we're going to

949
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 1: put it out on social media as well, at fish Stripes, Humble, Twitter,

950
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 1: and Instagram. People can find you at Daniel de Vivo

951
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 1: on Twitter. I know you're not looking for the attention,

952
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 1: but you're a really fun person to engage with on

953
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 1: all Madelons topics. When we discussed it on social media, Daniel,

954
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:22,160
Speaker 1: it was excellent to have you on the show.

955
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,760
Speaker 2: Now think think thank you, Eli. Just you know, to

956
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:28,920
Speaker 2: finish off here. You know, Fish Stripes followers will obviously

957
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:31,840
Speaker 2: disagree with with a lot of players on the list.

958
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 2: My idea, you know, by sharing this is just so

959
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 2: people have all this information collected in one place and

960
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:40,760
Speaker 2: maybe you know, they can try out making their ranks,

961
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:43,880
Speaker 2: you know, and and their lists. So hopefully yeah, hopefully

962
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 2: you guys enjoy it. And then thanks for having me man,

963
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,439
Speaker 2: it's been a pleasure. Love what you guys are doing.

964
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 2: Keep it up.