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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week seven episode. We will break down the

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Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exec

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Speaker 1: decision and our Simon says and start to narrow down

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Speaker 1: the options for a five phaves to put into the

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Speaker 1: Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.

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Speaker 1: We went two and three this past week, and considering

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Speaker 1: how the Favorites did, how Road Favorites did going nine

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Speaker 1: to oh after the Bills won last night and after

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Speaker 1: the Bengals won on Sunday night, those are classic spots

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Speaker 1: for Simon and I to fade the fact we went

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Speaker 1: two and three. I am gonna take that because we

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Speaker 1: had the full experience of life betting games this weekend.

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Speaker 1: It was like parenting, working, eating, drinking, the roller coaster

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Speaker 1: of everything that we choose to do on a daily basis,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna do it all again this week live

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Speaker 1: from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as always

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Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, Mike and Padre might

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Speaker 1: be a professional better. Simon Hunter Ero, Simon, Hello, Chad.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's what the best Sunday ever for the betting

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Speaker 2: in public, and capped off by our brutal loss for

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Speaker 2: me in that Giants game. And then last night. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if you watched that game, because I know

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Speaker 2: you're traveling. That was the worst football game I've watched

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Speaker 2: in years. I mean, the refs made it unwatchable, the miskicks,

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Speaker 2: all of it, even the stupid roughing the passer penalty

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Speaker 2: was just brutal. And Aaron Rodgers, It's just it's everything.

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Speaker 2: Chad hates these referees controlling these games. I'm with you.

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Speaker 2: I try to hold firm because to me there is

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Speaker 2: no such thing as bad football because I just love

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Speaker 2: it so much. But fucking had was at some bad football.

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Speaker 1: Last night, you know, Simon, I'm so glad you said that.

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Speaker 1: I was watching the game on my flight last night,

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Speaker 1: and it's excruciating. And you watch these games over the

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Speaker 1: course of the weekend and it feels like, anecdotally, this

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Speaker 1: is my judgment, what is it twenty thirty percent? Maybe

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Speaker 1: more of big plays are either negated or impacted by

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Speaker 1: penalties like last night, the Jets had a long throw

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Speaker 1: to Garrett Wilson down the middle of the field. They

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Speaker 1: called PI and they also called like illegal formation. And

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Speaker 1: these illegal formation penalties are ruining the game. They truly are,

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Speaker 1: because it is impossible to watch. You see the flag

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Speaker 1: go up as soon as the ball is snapped. You

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Speaker 1: know it's a dead play. You know it's not an

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Speaker 1: off side. So you know somebody didn't line up with

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Speaker 1: their helmet on the midline. You know somebody lined up

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Speaker 1: uncovered on the line. They got to figure this out

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Speaker 1: on the competition committee. I'm serious. I'm not talking about

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Speaker 1: it as a better I'm talking about it as a fan.

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Speaker 1: Like there's no rhythm to these games. There's no predictability.

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Speaker 1: Every good play gets called back because of something stupid.

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Speaker 1: And I know the players should understand how to line up.

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Speaker 1: The coaches should coach these guys to know where to be.

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Speaker 1: But clearly something is missing, and I don't understand the

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Speaker 1: value of some of these plays. You're not getting that

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Speaker 1: much of an edge if you're Juwan Taylor and you're

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Speaker 1: lining up in the backfield. That's one thing. If you're

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Speaker 1: lining up with nobody covering you. As a receiver. You're

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Speaker 1: three feet off the line of scrimmage. That is impacting

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Speaker 1: nothing like some of these rules. It is infuriating to

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Speaker 1: watch these games. I was so glad to miss so

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Speaker 1: much of that game last night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And I said to my buddy I was watching

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Speaker 2: the game. I was like, if this is one PM,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. Sure call the game as tight as

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Speaker 2: you possibly can. Say, prime time game, you can call

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Speaker 2: holding penalty on every single snap. We always talk about

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Speaker 2: it all the time. Do you really need to call

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Speaker 2: it on every important third down or every time a

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Speaker 2: touchdown scored. It's like, okay, it's it just was a

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Speaker 2: brutal product. Like you said, it's you know, Goodell made

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Speaker 2: a call. Like there's just there's no way they're gonna

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Speaker 2: let this continue where you know, we saw a couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks ago on the Thursday and night games there's

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Speaker 2: too much referees. The same happened last night. It's just

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Speaker 2: these primetime games. We can't let the stars of the

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Speaker 2: show be their refs. It needs to be the players.

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Speaker 1: Twenty two penalties last night. You mentioned Aaron Rodgers, you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the roughing the passer. Even Rogers said postgame last night,

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Speaker 1: those were those weren't roughing the passers on him?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because it was. It was terrible.

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Speaker 1: It was terrible. So anyways, Yeah, like last night, I

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Speaker 1: felt like we were cursed by the history of the Meadowlands.

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Speaker 1: We had a ch ants with the Giants to get

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Speaker 1: that cover. Chase Brown fumbles, the ball goes through a

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Speaker 1: Giant defender's hands as he's trying to recover it. Last night,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen by the goal line about going to score

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Speaker 1: on another drive, he fumbles, the ball goes through with

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Speaker 1: Jets defenders hands as he tries to recover it. Like

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Speaker 1: just critical critical, Meadowlands misbounces for us on both the

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Speaker 1: Bengals and Giants, and the Jets and the Bills both

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Speaker 1: end up being losers for us feel lucky to have

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Speaker 1: escaped with a two and three week. In a moment,

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Speaker 1: we'll recap the results of week six. In our contents,

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Speaker 1: we'll announce the winner of our big weekly cash prize.

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Speaker 1: If you haven't yet, be sure to sign up for

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Speaker 1: the Free Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them contest presented by bet three six five Just

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Speaker 1: visit Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot Com as a reminder of

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Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions

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Speaker 1: restrictions supply all right. Congrats to Week six first place

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Speaker 1: winner Z four oh one. We actually had nine entries

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Speaker 1: go five and zero get within two yards of the

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Speaker 1: Monday night football tiebreaker, but only two entries nailed the

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Speaker 1: tiebreaker exactly because Z fourh one submitted first. Z takes

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Speaker 1: home a two thousand dollars prize. Well done. As always,

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup award for the

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Speaker 1: entry that finished dead last in the contest.

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Speaker 2: Have you about the loads and lose? He's a Louis

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Speaker 2: about he still kids on try.

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Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to John Patterson. Congrats on

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Speaker 1: your oh and five week and missing the tiebreaker by

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Speaker 1: two one hundred and ninety four yards. John Patterson, please

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Speaker 1: email Matt Mitchell at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to

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Speaker 1: claim your prize. All right, I think we got to

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Speaker 1: change the contest tiebreaker to number of penalty yards and

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Speaker 1: these in these Monday night games because it's just getting ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Let's get into it. First game up Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: We got a Barne Berner Denver Broncos visiting the New

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Speaker 1: Orleans Saints Simon last college football season. If we had

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Speaker 1: playing Spencer Rattler, it might have been like the eighth

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Speaker 1: game we might be interested in. Instead, we get it

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Speaker 1: in prime time. And this line has moved quite a

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Speaker 1: bit since it opened. It it had already moved from

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Speaker 1: New Orleans like I think two to two and a

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Speaker 1: half to one. When we knew it was going to

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Speaker 1: be rattler. Now it's all of a sudden it moved

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Speaker 1: to New Orleans plus two Like that seems like a

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Speaker 1: ridiculous move to me. Bo Nicks as a road favorite,

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Speaker 1: we already felt bad that he was going to be

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Speaker 1: a home favorite of a field goal. Give me your take.

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Speaker 2: Care Oovers Spencer, Chad, what a game to get you

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Speaker 2: fired up? A good old Bo Spencer Bowl game. Seriously,

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Speaker 2: it's gross, but you just nailed it right. We're supposed

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Speaker 2: to take the Saints here, especially off all this line movement,

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Speaker 2: and I think it could because a Lave is out

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Speaker 2: as well. You know, we'll see who the healthy receivers

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Speaker 2: are going to be for the Saints team all. They

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Speaker 2: have a lot of injured guys right now, so that's

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Speaker 2: what the movement's based off of. Because of that, I'm

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Speaker 2: going Broncos. I know it's tough. I can't believe I'm

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Speaker 2: doing it, but you know, I like to take the

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Speaker 2: favorites on Thursday Night. I mean I talk all the time.

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Speaker 2: There's just there's a reason that the favorites historically this

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Speaker 2: is the spot you want to take them. And this

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Speaker 2: week I really want to be on the home Dogs year,

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Speaker 2: it's just tough for me to get there. Like the injuries,

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Speaker 2: we talked about how they're going to catch up for

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Speaker 2: the Saints team, how do they not catch up to

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Speaker 2: a team that now has their number one, number two

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Speaker 2: receiver out, their best offensive lineman's out, and they're starting

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks out. So on the flip side, Denver, they've kind

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Speaker 2: of for the most part, escaped this injury bug. And

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Speaker 2: I know they looked bad last week, but I was

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Speaker 2: impressed by bow Knicks coming back in that game like

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Speaker 2: the kid. The kid has a never die attitude, turned

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Speaker 2: that into a ball game last week where most rookie

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Speaker 2: qbs kind of go well as me, me and pack

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Speaker 2: it in. And we did not see that last week

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Speaker 2: for Bonnick. So I bet this when it was Broncos

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Speaker 2: minus one, I'd still take it here at minus two.

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Speaker 2: Once across is two and a half, though, that's when

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Speaker 2: I think the value really shifts to the Saints team.

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Speaker 2: So I think if you want to take the Broncos here,

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Speaker 2: I think there's still value on this number. It's just

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Speaker 2: too much going on with this Saints team that really

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Speaker 2: back down right now. I don't I if I have

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Speaker 2: a clear pitcher that a lobby is playing. Maybe I'll

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Speaker 2: change my tune here, But having a rookie quarterback now

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Speaker 2: with a bang up offensive line, with his number three,

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Speaker 2: number four receiver being his number ones, that to me

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Speaker 2: is just too much for Spencer Ratler to overcome.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, the injuries are significant. My favorite thing about

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Speaker 1: Bonix this year, you know, I love the relationship that

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Speaker 1: he's building with Sean Payton yea. And that fight that

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Speaker 1: they got into in the middle of the game before

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Speaker 1: the week before the Chargers and at the postgame press

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Speaker 1: conferencer during the week. I can't remem but what it was.

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Speaker 1: Someone asks both of them about it, and Sean Payton

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Speaker 1: is giving sort of a thoughtful answer of bon Nicks

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Speaker 1: as a rookie quarterback and he's learning, and bo Nicks

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Speaker 1: gets the question and his answer is, oh, he just

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Speaker 1: said I love you and I just said I love

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Speaker 1: you back. Like the guy clearly has a great attitude.

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Speaker 1: He is clearly fearless when it comes to this stuff.

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Speaker 1: And as you noted, and he's done this multiple times

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Speaker 1: now this season where his team is out of it,

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Speaker 1: and go back to Week one against the Seahawks, like

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Speaker 1: he kept grinding kept trying to learn, kept trying to

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Speaker 1: make the red passes, and we see it. The Broncos

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Speaker 1: are not pulling any punches. They are not giving him

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Speaker 1: a rookie playbook. That first pass in the game against

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, it was an interception, but they're going down

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Speaker 1: the field like Sean Payton is not pulling any punches here.

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Speaker 1: Very impressive. I don't mind what you're saying. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to bet it. I actually bet the under in

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Speaker 1: this game. That's the first thing I did. I got

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Speaker 1: it at thirty seven and a half. I think I

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Speaker 1: will not touch a side in this game. I'm sick

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Speaker 1: of refs ruining my primetime games. Pats versus Jacks, Jags

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Speaker 1: are five and a half point favorites. This is the

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Speaker 1: London game. So like the bad news for the Jags,

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Speaker 1: there is real chaos on this team. Our guy Doug Peterson,

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Speaker 1: who we love, he's on his last legs here. Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence is regressing. A player on defense came out and

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Speaker 1: said after the Bears game that they basically gave up

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Speaker 1: in that game, which Doug Peterson refuted. The good news

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Speaker 1: favorites excel in the international games with the historically dominant

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Speaker 1: Caleb Williams leading the Bears this past weekend. There are

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Speaker 1: now thirty six to ten to one straight up, thirty

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Speaker 1: two and fifteen against the spread. That's the favorites. What

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Speaker 1: do you think here?

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Speaker 2: Just kind of going back to what he did last week?

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Speaker 2: I mean, Evan Gave has had an amazing stat Before

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Speaker 2: last week, rookie quarterbacks were zero to five against the

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Speaker 2: spread in this exact spot playing international games for those

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks had lost by fourteen plus. And you know what

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Speaker 2: we saw last week was Williams. He's different. I mean

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Speaker 2: we talked about we never seen a rookie QB throw

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Speaker 2: for four touchdowns in an international game like that's.

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Speaker 1: And run for a touchdown and run for five touchdowns

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Speaker 1: in the game. Let's just be clear it's five touchdowns

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Speaker 1: in the game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's impressive. There's a reason this spreads that big though,

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Speaker 2: because people were asking shouldn't we take Drake May? The

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Speaker 2: Jags are terrible, they shouldn't be respected this much is

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Speaker 2: too much of a movement. I think it's just based

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Speaker 2: off those statistics where favorites usually cover, they usually do

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Speaker 2: well in London, and then you mixing rookie quarterbacks tend

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Speaker 2: to struggle in this exact spot. So you're right, Doug

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Speaker 2: Peterson loses this game, he's guaranteed to be fired. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is a guaranteed fired spot for Doug Peterson. And

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Speaker 2: as an Eagles fan, I've been hearing it is that

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Speaker 2: Eagles Nick Foles Doug Peterson flukia super Bowl ever in

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Speaker 2: NFL history. It's it's hard to debate it now there

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Speaker 2: were this many years later. It's like, it is pretty

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Speaker 2: crazy think back that this man was able to motivate

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Speaker 2: that team. And you know, I still think Doug's a

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Speaker 2: good coach. It's just things are not bouncing their way

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Speaker 2: for this Jaguars team. Like everything that could go wrong

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Speaker 2: keeps going wrong for them, even in against your Bears team,

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Speaker 2: Like opening drive, they get the ball back, he throws

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Speaker 2: a pass in the second half, the guy fumbled it.

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Speaker 2: You guys go right down the field, scored and a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: I was just it just everything keeps going wrong for

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Speaker 2: this team. So thank god, we can't put this one

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Speaker 2: in contest, but I'll bet it right now it's under

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Speaker 2: six to five and a half. I'll take that number,

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Speaker 2: but with very little confidence in my betting this Jaguars team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a really tough spot for Drake May

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Speaker 1: and terrible spot. It is also a Jaguars team. Like

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Speaker 1: you said, Doug Peterson's coaching for his life here and

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Speaker 1: he might be at a point where he's just like

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Speaker 1: freaking fire me. Let me get back to the south,

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Speaker 1: to South Jersey, get on the beach, go play some pool,

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Speaker 1: have some beers. Like this is just not what I

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Speaker 1: was expecting at all. And the Jaguars owners said before

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Speaker 1: the season, this is the best roster they've ever had,

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Speaker 1: like they had a very high expectation. So all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, Trevor Lawrence and what will be I think

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Speaker 1: year four or five will now be going on to

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Speaker 1: his third new head coach and have an albatross of

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Speaker 1: a massive deal hanging over the entire franchise. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, they've signed a lot of guys to big deals,

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Speaker 1: not just Trevor Lawrence. They got josh Heinz Allen too,

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Speaker 1: So they have committed a lot of money to guys

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Speaker 1: who are not getting it done. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Thank god,

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Speaker 1: we can't put it in the contest. Miami at Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts are three and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: Let me set a scene for you. Okay, So yesterday

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Speaker 1: I'm flying. I was working on my notes for the show.

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Speaker 1: Today I got to this game. I could not think

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Speaker 1: of who the quarterback was for the Miami Dolphins. I

287
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Speaker 1: had to look it up. I typed in Miami Dolphins

288
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Speaker 1: starting quarterback. The only name that came up was Tua. Finally,

289
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Speaker 1: I looked at the Dolphins depth chart and I got

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Speaker 1: to Skyler Thompson and Tyler Huntley. That's when I finally

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Speaker 1: figured out who the quarterback was. So at this point,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to touch this game because I think

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Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson is going to play, at least that's what

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Speaker 1: they're saying he's expected to start. Is he a three

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorite against literally anyone lining up

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Speaker 1: behind center for the Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you've already seen a couple of books move this

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Speaker 2: down to three for your exact reasoning. It's just you're

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Speaker 2: getting the hook. You know, we all know Miami has

300
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Speaker 2: just lost right now, and I agree with a lot

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Speaker 2: of people that you know, they could be well another

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Speaker 2: one of those teams that they could be firing their

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Speaker 2: coach in a couple of weeks because it's just all

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Speaker 2: so bad for this team, and it can it can

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Speaker 2: get away from them pretty quick. But I'm with you here, Chad.

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Speaker 2: It's it feels like it's too many points for Richardson,

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Speaker 2: who hasn't played in a game in what three four weeks.

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Speaker 2: You know, despite what we want to think about Miami,

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Speaker 2: they still have a great run blocking scheme, Like they

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Speaker 2: can still run the ball pretty damn well. So we've

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Speaker 2: seen this Colts defense. I'm still embarrassed that I thought

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Speaker 2: it was dan Quinn when it was Gus Bradley. Like

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Speaker 2: I confused these middle aged, older white men, and I

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Speaker 2: thought Gus Bradley was a coach with Washington and Dan

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Speaker 2: Quinn was the DC of the Colts. I'm sorry for

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Speaker 2: besmirching his good name, because Gus Bradley's terrible right now.

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Speaker 2: This Colts defense is terrib bull. They're so bad in

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Speaker 2: so many different ways. So I'm with you, Chad. If

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Speaker 2: I had to pick this game, I'll take the three

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Speaker 2: and a half on Miami. But it's it's such a small

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Speaker 2: bet because I have no real read on this game

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Speaker 2: at all.

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Speaker 1: It's just it's a team that's completely lost its mojo,

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Speaker 1: its personality. We all not too we talk about we

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Speaker 1: don't think he's that good of a quarterback. He's a

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Speaker 1: product of the system. He's gotten the guaranteed money. But

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Speaker 1: there is something to be said for being so good

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Speaker 1: within the system. He was clearly the ignition for getting

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Speaker 1: a Tyreek Hill, getting a jail and Waddle get you know,

330
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Speaker 1: Divonne h Chain. Like the way they are able to

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Speaker 1: move the ball when he is the quarterback, it's just

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Speaker 1: decidedly different. I think it's taking some of the mojo

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Speaker 1: from Mike McDaniel too.

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Speaker 2: Like it's weird though, why would I get Like you

335
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Speaker 2: want to protect your first round pick and you're the

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Speaker 2: guy you took so early with Anthony Richardson, But the

337
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Speaker 2: way flack Goo has been playing, I feel like he

338
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Speaker 2: has earned the starting role and they're about to go

339
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Speaker 2: into this shit like this is literally the toughest part

340
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Speaker 2: of the season coming up. Okay, they get Miami, no problem,

341
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Speaker 2: then they go at Houston at Minnesota, home versus Buffalo

342
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Speaker 2: at the Jets, and then home versus Detroit, Like that

343
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Speaker 2: is just an insane stretch that in whose mind is

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Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson Get you through that, Like, I just think

345
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Speaker 2: it's really funny they're going back to him where you're

346
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Speaker 2: three and three right now, I could see Flacco still

347
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Speaker 2: a couple of those games, and you could still at

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Speaker 2: the end of it be have a winning record with

349
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Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson. I just don't have that type of faith,

350
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Speaker 2: So I think this has got to be coming from ownership.

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Speaker 2: I just have no other reason why they'd be then

352
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Speaker 2: benched Joe Flacco right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well that was gonna be. My question is I

354
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Speaker 1: think Shane Steichen's a really good coach, me too, And

355
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Speaker 1: you do wonder all right, after two years. One year,

356
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Speaker 1: you weren't with Anthony Richardson. The second year, he's in

357
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Speaker 1: and out, in and out. Who knows if he'll stay

358
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Speaker 1: healthy the rest of the year, But he's clearly proven

359
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Speaker 1: the ability to win as a coach when he had

360
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Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco, right and if this team

361
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Speaker 1: tanks over the next what is it eleven games? Is

362
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Speaker 1: he going to be blamed? Is all of a sudden

363
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Speaker 1: he fired? Have they pulled the cord too soon? He's

364
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Speaker 1: a really good coach, like nobody should be thinking about

365
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Speaker 1: getting rid of him. But if it's another terrible year.

366
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Speaker 1: And ersay is like, I don't know what to do here,

367
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Speaker 1: but I want to stick with Anthony Richardson. We invested

368
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Speaker 1: too much in him. I got to get rid of

369
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Speaker 1: the coach. What happens here, Like, let's play this out

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Speaker 1: for a minute.

371
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Speaker 2: You don't think so, No, I can't see him getting

372
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Speaker 2: fired after this year. But I agree with you. It

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Speaker 2: feels like he has a little bit tired Anthony Richson

374
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Speaker 2: at this point. So maybe that is part of the problem.

375
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Speaker 1: The coaches just want to win, man, exactly. They just

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Speaker 1: want to win with the players they can trust. That's it.

377
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Speaker 1: End of the day. Seattle at Atlanta, we had a

378
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Speaker 1: conversation about this one on Sunday night. It's been bouncing

379
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Speaker 1: around between two and a half and three since we

380
00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: first discussed it. I've come to the conclusion I feel

381
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Speaker 1: like you like Atlanta here, and I'm really curious what

382
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 1: you're power rating is on this game.

383
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I just like the number. So I have this

384
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 2: game with three. It's two and a half to me.

385
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Speaker 2: That's where the value is Atlanta. You know, the view

386
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 2: of this Atlanta team is they're not as good as

387
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 2: their record states. But I don't think they're as bad

388
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 2: as people perceive they are, right. I think offensively, there's

389
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Speaker 2: a lot to like there. Right they have a two

390
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 2: headed monster in the running backfield, and we've seen Pitses

391
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: look better throughout the season at tight end, And we

392
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 2: don't really have questions about London. Like to me, they're

393
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: pretty solid about what they are. On the flip side, Seattle,

394
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Speaker 2: their defense, which you know they brought in the head

395
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 2: coach is supposed to fix it. Between all the injuries

396
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 2: they've had now to that defense as well, they're terrible.

397
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 2: I mean we've had multiple weeks now this Seattle defense

398
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 2: just being dominated, not just against the run, but through

399
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 2: the air as well. Like they just have no strength

400
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 2: right now. And that to me is why I don't

401
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 2: really understand this number. It's like, all right, under a

402
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 2: field goal, you're giving me the better team at home.

403
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 2: I'll be the sucker. I'll take that number. If this

404
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 2: was number of three and a half, I could be

405
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 2: talking in Seattle, just because they do have such a

406
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 2: good offense with Gino and those weapons on the outside.

407
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: But you know, we've seen it for a couple of

408
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: weeks now. This Seattle team just isn't that good And

409
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 2: it feels like, you know, people overreacted to it, you know,

410
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 2: them being three and oh, it's the same thing we

411
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 2: talked about the Saints. Me and you were not buying

412
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Speaker 2: the Saints at all and if they start off too

413
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:33,679
Speaker 2: and oh, and it threw us off the set, like

414
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 2: we felt we fell into the trap of yeah, the

415
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 2: Saints team's not as bad as puper received. It's like, no,

416
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: they're pretty bad. And then they've had bad injury luck.

417
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 2: Same goes for the Seattle team. They've had some really

418
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 2: bad injury luck to their defense. So people betting on

419
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: this game, they're betting on this being a shootout. They

420
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 2: like Seattle left the three. I talk a couple of

421
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 2: professionals who like Seattle at the three. So that's why

422
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 2: this number is back down to two and a half.

423
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 2: And I'll just take the sucker bet and the home

424
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 2: favorite under a field goal. And this in the team,

425
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 2: it's it's tough to think that they're going to keep

426
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,919
Speaker 2: covering all these games in a row, but it's just

427
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,360
Speaker 2: an undervalued team right now to the sports books.

428
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: It doesn't feel like a sucker's bet to me. So

429
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: the reason I asked you you're power rating earlier instead

430
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 1: of sort of going through all the research first. Is

431
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 1: because I was sitting in the airport, you know, the

432
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 1: the at the gate yesterday doing all my research and

433
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 1: stop clicking through my tabs and all that kind of stuff.

434
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 1: And the Seattle team is middling at everything. Right. They're

435
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: middle of the pack in nearly every defensive statistic, whether

436
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 1: it's basic or advanced, except they are last in rushing

437
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 1: yards for play allowed. Atlanta's defense isn't all that special either.

438
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 2: No, but they get no pressure. I mean they have a.

439
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 1: Pass rush and they're not they're.

440
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 2: Safeties, we'll give them that. They've really not.

441
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 1: Very good and like neither are very good in red

442
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,959
Speaker 1: zone touchdown percentage allowed. They're pretty low in the in

443
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 1: the NFL. Atlanta's just much much better offensively, top ten

444
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 1: in several categories where Seattle is middle of the pack.

445
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: So at the end of my research, I was like, Okay,

446
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 1: I think I lean Atlanta two and a half.

447
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 2: Yeah.

448
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 1: I just can't shake that they let everyone stay in

449
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 1: the game, Like even the Panthers were in it until

450
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: they got in their own way and they panthered, you

451
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Like that the Falcons. Every game

452
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: they play seems to barely go in their direction.

453
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked about coming to that game. Why we

454
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 2: like the Panthers is they can't help but at playing

455
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,239
Speaker 2: close games they have. Yeah, they come into the game.

456
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 2: Last week they had three wins, one by one point,

457
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 2: the second by two points, and then the last one

458
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 2: was an overtime, fluky six point walk off win against

459
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 2: the Bucks. So I'm with you, like, there's a reason

460
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 2: to be hesitant about this one. There's a reason this

461
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 2: number is under three. But I'd just take it across

462
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:02,919
Speaker 2: that key number. That's why I'm and I'm just like you,

463
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 2: That's why I end up taking a lane here where

464
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, not a game. I'm maybe I'll love

465
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: it more come Thursday, once I look into it more

466
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 2: about Raiseter City. Right now, it's just a game, I bet,

467
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 2: simply just because I think the number is half a

468
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 2: point of value.

469
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: We're just playing the number. Yes, what I'm excited about

470
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: for us right now, we have not wallowed in the

471
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: idea that road favorites rent and unprecedented nine and ero,

472
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: and that that normally creators our confidence because we like

473
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: to play against road favorites we're just going through it.

474
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 1: We're going through our numbers, we're going through our process,

475
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 1: we're going through the research. I feel no jitters right now.

476
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 2: I like it because I think it's going to give

477
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: us an extra point on almost every home dog we

478
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: like this week. Honestly like that's the books are happy

479
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 2: to overreact to it because they know Joe Public the

480
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 2: sucker they are. They are fat, their pockets are fat

481
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 2: right now. They're happy to come in once again and

482
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 2: do a bunch of road favorite parlays, teasers, straight up

483
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: whatever they can get on these lines. So historically this

484
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 2: should be a good week for us. We should be

485
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 2: getting to free points on different home dolls this week.

486
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: I think people are going to see this week there's

487
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 2: a couple that really jump out that live up to this.

488
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,439
Speaker 1: I want you to remember that we cannot lose focus.

489
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: That home dogs are still going to be a side

490
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,959
Speaker 1: we tend to like. And I just want to reiterate

491
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: flowers for you, Simon Hunter. Sunday morning, we're putting our

492
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:30,479
Speaker 1: picks in. What did you say, chalk is due? This

493
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: feels like a chalky week. Thank god we did that,

494
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 1: Otherwise we could have been staring at an zero to

495
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 1: five week Houston at green Bay. Green Bay is a

496
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: three point favorite. So I think on Sunday Night you

497
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,479
Speaker 1: like the Texans, and I persuaded you that two and

498
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: a half the Packers were the play, and now that

499
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 1: it's a three and I've done a little more research,

500
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: I think I lean Texans. To me, this is another

501
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: sort of number play two and a half. I probably

502
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: like the Packers at three. Maybe I'm neutral, maybe lean

503
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: Texans at that number, But to me, Joe Mixon makes

504
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: a huge difference for this Texans team and changes the

505
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: calculus I think in a lot of the home roads

506
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: splits that we see from CJ. Stroud.

507
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a tough one though, Like we said

508
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 2: Sunday night, I can see why people are split on

509
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 2: this one. I actually have this at one and a

510
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 2: half green Bay, so I actually do have a lot

511
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 2: of respect for this team model wise in Houston, and

512
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: apparently I think they have a good number as well.

513
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. As soon as I went to three,

514
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 2: I took a couple bites of that three on Houston

515
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 2: plus three. It's just that to me was good value.

516
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 2: A couple of books an hour down to two and

517
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 2: a half on Houston. That feels right like, if they

518
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: want to get a decent amount of action on Green Bay,

519
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 2: they'll keep it there. They'll bump it back up to three.

520
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 2: Professionals will come back in. That's how they'll get a

521
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 2: nice even split probably on this number here or so early. Though,

522
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 2: I still like Houston, especially if we can get three

523
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: and a half in contest. If this does get bet up,

524
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: we are getting a three and a half number with

525
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 2: CJ here. I like that number, like, that's a really

526
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 2: good number in this spot where two equally matched teams,

527
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 2: and we talked to that home field just isn't what

528
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 2: it used to be. Like you do lose half a

529
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 2: point to a point that back in the day used

530
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 2: to just be a straight minus three across the board.

531
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 2: Now it's just not the way it is anymore. So

532
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 2: I like Houston. Will this end up being one of

533
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 2: our five? I think Chad just said it's all ad

534
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 2: dictated about what the number is gonna be, especially in

535
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: the contest, so you can still get the threes out there,

536
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: I'd grab that now. I can just see this coming

537
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 2: down to two and a half for the rest of

538
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 2: the week.

539
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: If we had Green Bay two and a half. Would

540
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: you put that in the contest? Oh?

541
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: Man, it depends what else we have in there, just

542
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: because like it's hard if I if I'm heavily bet

543
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 2: on Houston, I couldn't do it because then it's just

544
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 2: gonna be like an awful experience trying to root against

545
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 2: my own and bet you know what I mean.

546
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: No, I get it, I yet. And that also plays

547
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: into it when we make some of these picks, like oh,

548
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 1: that's we've made. We really don't want to be on

549
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: opposite sides when all of a sudden we're in the contest.

550
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: All right, you just mentioned home dogs. It's the theme

551
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: of the week. We haven't had many home dogs to

552
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,959
Speaker 1: talk about yet, mostly home favorites. Now we got Cincinnati

553
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 1: a Cleveland. Cleveland's a five and a half point home dog.

554
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 1: I want to say, like we throw out any home

555
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: division dog stats here. Evan had this great stat about

556
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. JaMarcus Russell lost. He was negative sixty five

557
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: point eight total EPA on dropbacks in weeks one through

558
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 1: six in two thousand and nine, since at least two

559
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: thousand before. It was the record low since at least

560
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: two thousand before. Deshaun Watson, who is negative sixty six

561
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: point two this season, seeing his believing here. Deshaun Watson

562
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen is just not coming back. And we

563
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: said it last week, we can say it again this week.

564
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: He is a bad quarterback who either doesn't have the

565
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: arm to throw the throws, to make the throws that

566
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: he wants to make, or that the Browns coaches want

567
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 1: to call, doesn't have the confidence. And we saw it

568
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: last week, like the Eagles got any pressure, his eyes

569
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 1: were down and he was going. It's just such a

570
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: marked difference. You watch a guy even like Josh Allen

571
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: last night, Joe Burrow on Sunday Night, it's just like

572
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: these guys they have such pocket presence and pocket awareness

573
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: that Deshaun Watson does not have right now. Super hard

574
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: to bet on the Browns at five and a half,

575
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: even though in my notes I wrote, is this number

576
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: too big right now? Is it too tempting to back

577
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: a road public fave? Like I don't think we want

578
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 1: to do that, So it's really the Browns are nothing here.

579
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,719
Speaker 2: Honestly, this is almost my simon says bet, but I

580
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 2: do think we'll be able to get a six, So

581
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do it yet. This might have been

582
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: our big balls, bet Chat, I'm not gonna let us

583
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 2: off the hook that easy. But you have to take

584
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 2: Cleveland this spot. I know this is this is such

585
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 2: a good number. Cincinnati fucking sucks, Like they are so

586
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 2: lucky that they won that Giants game. They got outplayed

587
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 2: by the Giants and almost every way they had a

588
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 2: fluky Joe Burrow ran the ball forty yards touchdown and

589
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 2: they did nothing until the final two minutes of that game.

590
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 2: Like they're just a bad team in Cincinnati. And the

591
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: biggest problem right now with Watson and this Cleveland team

592
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 2: is Filds on the ball too long and he just

593
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: takes really bad sacks. Yeah, I don't know how big

594
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 2: of a problem it's gonna be against Cincinnati team that

595
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 2: has one really good pass rusher and that's about it.

596
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 2: Like there's ways they can counter this Cincinnati team. And defensively, actually,

597
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 2: like this matchup for Cleveland's defense against this Bengals team,

598
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: A lot of what Jim Schwartz wants to do defensively

599
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: is gonna give Joe Burrow a problem. So, yeah, this

600
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 2: is a gross one, but this is probably gonna end

601
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: up as one of our five. Especially if this gets

602
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 2: up to six six and a half in our contest.

603
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 2: It's like there's gonna be too much movement on this

604
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 2: line not to take it, and especially where no one's left. Right,

605
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 2: the boat is totally empty. On Brown's betters, there is

606
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 2: no one left. So I haven't been to AC yet.

607
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: I'll probably get down there tonight or tomorrow. I already

608
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 2: can guarantee when I talk to the book makers, this

609
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 2: is gonna be the number one bet team. Te is

610
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 2: money line, all of it, the Cincinnati team. Everyone is

611
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 2: just going to be all in on them after that

612
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 2: big Sunday night win.

613
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: Eighty one percent are the tickets already on. That's Cincinnati

614
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 1: with the money. It's early in the week, so you're

615
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 1: not seeing a ton of wise guy money yet to

616
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 1: really have that be a factor. But I knew when

617
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: I saw this, and I was going through it yesterday

618
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 1: sitting in the freaking Detroit airport with my connection that.

619
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 2: Was before though you agree, right, it should be like I.

620
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: Agree like the number, like well, it's like the it's

621
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 1: the perfect example of what you just said, which is

622
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 1: we're going to get a point of value on all

623
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: these home dogs because the public won so emphatically last

624
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 1: week and Cincinnati is one of those teams, right, like

625
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 1: Cincinnati beating up on the Giants. They were a massive

626
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: public favorite. And even though they looked terrible, even though

627
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 1: the only play they made was Joe Burrow running and

628
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: then Joe Burry to Josebash Yoshivas, at the.

629
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 2: End of the day, that pass incredible.

630
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: That pass was sick, right, but it's a great example

631
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: of Joe Burrow Wouldborough can do and Deshaun Watson can't

632
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: get out of the pocket and still be aware of

633
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: what's happening downfield. I agree with you. The number is

634
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: just too big. I hate that we're gonna want to

635
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 1: do it. It's going to be a late entry because

636
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: we want this number to get as big as possible,

637
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 1: and Sunday morning, it's just going to go up, is

638
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 1: the thing that's that's really the challenge. We got to

639
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 1: wait and wait and wait. But Jesus Christ, just to

640
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 1: just to put a finer point on it, that Browns

641
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 1: rush is still top five. And we saw how badly

642
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: that offensive line for the Bengals performed against the Giants.

643
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: Pass rush that was missing Thibodeaux like there's there's some

644
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 1: issues here, so yeah, we're there. We're there. So I mean,

645
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: only one thing can make me comfortable betting on the

646
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:55,759
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647
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Speaker 1: at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All right, Eagles

660
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: visiting the Giants. This line open to three and a half.

661
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: It's now down to three. So someone's been betting on

662
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 1: the Giants here. You know. Somehow the Giants offered an

663
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:59,280
Speaker 1: inspiring performance and a devastating, winnable loss to the Bengals

664
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: at home. They never felt like they were out of

665
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 1: it until that throw to Josevash. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked

666
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: wholly uninspiring in a losable win to one of the

667
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: worst quarterbacks in the league, a win that was so

668
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 1: bad the coach left the field fighting with fans.

669
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:28,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's you're speechless, I am, because again

670
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 2: I'm trying to hold it back because I almost went

671
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 2: off on Sunday night where it's like, you fucking beat

672
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 2: the Browns by four points, and then your bad mouth

673
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 2: fans who spent a lot of money to go watch

674
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,879
Speaker 2: that dog shit performance, and then you bring your kids

675
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 2: to the press conference, Like if I was the owner,

676
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: I would have fired him right then and there you

677
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 2: bringing your kids to a press conference when you beat

678
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: the Browns by four What other team in the NFL

679
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 2: does that? Like it's a joke that you will never

680
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 2: catch another coach who barely beats a team that brings

681
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 2: us kids press conference when they're gonna ask you serious

682
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 2: questions and your deflection is it's all fun, Like how

683
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 2: much fun we're having When my kids ever I just

684
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 2: I hated Tierna company the year. Dude. Now I'm just like,

685
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:12,760
Speaker 2: I want us to lose. Guy, I want to be fired.

686
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 2: I just can't stand this guy running this team. It's

687
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 2: just Lane Johnson said it best. The offense is constipated

688
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:24,240
Speaker 2: like something's wrong where you know. You watch the Lions.

689
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 2: The Lions, they they dink and dunk their way down

690
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: the field and then a couple big plays here and

691
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 2: there that are just so impressive. That's what the Eagles

692
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: should be. Instead, the Eagles are three and out, six

693
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 2: and out, five and out, six and out, one big

694
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: play to a J. Brown for a touchdown, three and out,

695
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: three and out, one big play to Vante Smith for

696
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 2: a touchdown, and that's how they won that game, like

697
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 2: two fluky big plays. Chad so wanted to fade these

698
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 2: guys really hard. Unfortunately, the model has us at three.

699
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 2: So it's like, shit, if this gets a two and

700
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 2: a half, now, I'm gonna have to bet the Eagles

701
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 2: because that's where the value is going to be. So

702
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 2: if you grabbed the three and a half now and

703
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 2: the Giants, I honestly feel shockingly I feel more comfortable

704
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: taking that right now. But if this gets down to

705
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: two and a half. I'll probably end up on the

706
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 2: Eagles in this spot. But yeah, this this Eagles team

707
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 2: has some major problems, and I don't know this is

708
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:19,879
Speaker 2: this feels like a nice time for the Giants team

709
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 2: to catch them. But the fear here right now is,

710
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 2: you know, if this turns into a back and forth shootout,

711
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 2: they don't have the guns right now with Daniel Jones

712
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 2: on this Giants team. So maybe we'll have better clearance

713
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 2: once we know Neighbors is back. That whole thing, too,

714
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 2: is bizarre. I don't know if you're right about the

715
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,720
Speaker 2: neighbors thing. He apparently went to like a Travis Scott

716
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 2: concert on Wednesday or Friday last week and then didn't

717
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 2: play in the game because he still has got concussion issues.

718
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 2: I feel like glad noises and flashing lights at a

719
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 2: rap concert is not great for concussions. So that's a

720
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,479
Speaker 2: whole nother bizarre scenario going on to New York right now.

721
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 1: Not great for concussions. Not great when you like to

722
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: be asleep by nine o'clock like me. What's interesting about

723
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 1: the Sirianni thing? And I was in the uber yesterday

724
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 1: on the way to the airport, and the driver had

725
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: Dan Patrick on and he had Ross Tucker on, who

726
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: we've had on the show, and Ross Tucker's a Philly guy,

727
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 1: and Tucker was like, I like, he's like my buddies

728
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,479
Speaker 1: would react the same way everyone in Philly would react

729
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 1: the same way that Nick Sirianni is. And he also

730
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: said that he heard guys like Brandon Graham were telling

731
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 1: Sirianni to be more vocal and to be more like

732
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 1: he was in twenty twenty two and to let his

733
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:35,879
Speaker 1: sort of emotions out a little bit. So he might

734
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 1: have gotten some encouragement from the players to act like that.

735
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 2: No, that's smart. Listen to the players.

736
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:48,280
Speaker 1: Ah A Detroit at Minnesota. This one's moving, brother moving.

737
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

738
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 1: From the vikings minus one to minus two to minus

739
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 1: two and a half, Oh my god, listen. I've been like, instinctively,

740
00:39:58,000 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 1: i want to be on the on the Lions here,

741
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 1: and I'm looking for reasons to sell the vikings. It

742
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 1: might just be we're getting to the number right, like

743
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 1: teams that are covering by five points per game historically

744
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 1: in the games going forward forty five percent against the spread,

745
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 1: so that is the vikings. Obviously, we have fears with

746
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 1: the Lions because of Aden Hutchinson. But there's to me,

747
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 1: that's the only reason this line is moving, and all

748
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 1: of a sudden it's moved to point and a half.

749
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: We talked about this on Sunday night. Aden Hutchinson, brilliant

750
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: DPOY candidate, probably would have won it. Is that a

751
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: point and a half? Like JJ Watt is at his

752
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 1: most fierce, was one point and that's a lot Miles

753
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 1: Garrett one point last year. Aden Hutchinson a point and

754
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,240
Speaker 1: a half? Is that why this line is moving?

755
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair too, where like I only moved to

756
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: half a point, but I'm really really in tough moving

757
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,360
Speaker 2: points where it's got to be the quarterback for me

758
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 2: to really start moving in a lot. And we talked

759
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 2: about though it's the biggest injury in the NFL this season,

760
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: no question about it. Like he's taking them from being

761
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 2: no doubt top two, top three team in this league

762
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 2: to now, you know, we got real questions about their defense,

763
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 2: Like that was a big thing for them where they

764
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 2: don't really have anyone else that can even do close

765
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 2: to what he does. And he was such a game

766
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 2: wrecker for them that I feel like every time they

767
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 2: needed a big sack or a big takeaway. He was

768
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 2: in on it like he was either rushing the QB

769
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 2: to get any reception or he's taking the QB down.

770
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 2: It was just such a brutal loss for this Lion's team,

771
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 2: So that's fair that to me, that could be why

772
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 2: the Lions moved too much, or it's also the professionals

773
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 2: love this Vikings team and you know, for them to

774
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 2: come in so heavy earlier in the week like this,

775
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 2: I'm honestly shocked by it because you just said it, like, yeah,

776
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 2: me and you were about to be the guys that

777
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 2: we have to take. We already like the Lions, but

778
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 2: this is even more so. It's like, all right, I

779
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 2: guess we're gonna join the public once again and take

780
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 2: a dog here. That's you know, to me, move too much,

781
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 2: especially two and a half such a key number. So

782
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 2: I need more time on this one because it feels

783
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 2: like this is just like last week with Dallas. It

784
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: feels like it's too easy with this Lions team, like

785
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 2: this is a really good matchup for what this Lion's

786
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 2: team wants to do offensively. Maybe the whole view of

787
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 2: it is we're still once again not give enough credit

788
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: to Sam Darnold and this Vikings offense and that they

789
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,439
Speaker 2: won't be just blown out and rolled over, that they'll

790
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 2: keep this competitive and they'll somehow steal this game to

791
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 2: the end. But I just don't see it. I'm really

792
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 2: trying to see it, and I just can't. And my

793
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 2: model has this at one. So I have the Vikings

794
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 2: favor by one. I give them respect. They should be

795
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:55,319
Speaker 2: home favorites, right, they deserve that much. Now they're up

796
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 2: to two and a half, Like in what world? It's

797
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 2: just really it's way too much movement. So I'm with you.

798
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 2: This one is a very tempting to take It's.

799
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 1: Way too much for alliance team that is, it is

800
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 1: so so good. Like this offensive team is amazing. What

801
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 1: they are doing is exactly what we thought they were

802
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 1: going to do. It's why we handicapped him the way

803
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 1: we did with the Cowboys, Like they are a physical

804
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 1: team that knows exactly who they are. Jared Goff is

805
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: the perfect quarterback for this system. They are calling the

806
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: right place. They've gotten through the bumps in the road

807
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 1: of the early season. This Hutchinson news is bad for

808
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 1: the defense, but the offense is still dominant. Obviously Flores

809
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 1: is a great matchup. We'll see what happens, but certainly

810
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 1: going to be an interesting game. We're probably going to

811
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 1: end up being on Detroit if the number stays where

812
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 1: it is or or keeps going. We're getting breaking news.

813
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 1: We'll get to the Bills game in a second, but

814
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 1: according to Tito. According to Ian Rappaport from NFL Network,

815
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills are acquiring Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns.

816
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 1: So what does that do to our bet? We'll have

817
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,280
Speaker 1: to talk about that as things shake out, for sure.

818
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: Last stats on the Lions and the Vikings. Home division

819
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: faves forty five percent against the spread since twenty fifteen.

820
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: Short home division faves three points, so less forty five

821
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 1: percent the last twenty years thirty three forty six against

822
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: the spread forty one percent since twenty twenty Tennessee Buffalo

823
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: great timing, Tito producer, Tito freaking produce it. Uh, Look,

824
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: this was going to be chalky and ugly. I don't

825
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 1: hate the Bills here like these are the games that

826
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 1: Josh Allen just tends to dominate.

827
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 2: Alert here with Josh Allen, He's He's a football player

828
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 2: through every years work, and there we got drugs.

829
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: Can excuse me?

830
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 2: Touchdown? How many quarterbacks of your turtle anyone? Goodness, there's

831
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 2: no beer, no way. The demands to do something about

832
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 2: this album regeous.

833
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 1: Man, big, louder and louder.

834
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 2: To me, the biggest part of this move for them

835
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: is it blocks Kansas City from getting Amari Cooper. Like

836
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 2: that's to me is why the Bills honestly made this move.

837
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: It's like next level chess, seven level chess.

838
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 2: It helps their team, and it's blocking a team that

839
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 2: I thought it was a slam dunk. The Chiefs would

840
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 2: go get Amari Cooper like he fits exactly what they

841
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 2: want to do a possession receiver. And you know, I've

842
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: seen a couple of vance stats that Amari Cooper is

843
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 2: not as good as we perceive. He actually has a

844
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 2: ton of drops this year. Not the same receiver he's

845
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 2: been in the past, But I still feel like he

846
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 2: can win one to one matchups and he still is

847
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 2: such a vet that he knew it's how to get

848
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 2: open and make incredible catches when he does catch the ball.

849
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 2: It's like, I love this for the Bills, that he's

850
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 2: exactly what this team needed a veteran presence, you know,

851
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 2: as fun as it was having these young receivers and

852
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 2: Josh Allen can use anyone he wants. You still want

853
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 2: a guy that you know on third down? He knows. Okay,

854
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 2: all my guys are covered. I know exactly where my one.

855
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 2: My one guy is going to be a Mark Cooper,

856
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 2: even if he's covered a fifty to fifty ball. I'm

857
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 2: still gonna give him Mark Cooper that chance, Like you don't.

858
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 2: You didn't really have that with all these young receivers

859
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 2: in Buffalo, so love to move for them. I honestly

860
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 2: wanted to be on Tennessee. Why is this not ten?

861
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 2: Like to me the number, that's what That's what I mean. Yeah,

862
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 2: So I have this number right where it is. I

863
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 2: have it at eight and a half. So motto doesn't

864
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 2: think there's any crazy value here. I honestly, when I

865
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 2: have a push like this, especially when it's this big,

866
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 2: I tend to lean towards the dogs. I techically want

867
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: to take Tennessee here. Yeah right, I'm not putting a

868
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 2: dollar on Will Levis on the road, especially against this

869
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 2: Bills team that you just said it like they have

870
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 2: not they haven't rolled or blown anyone out in a while,

871
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 2: because they've had really tough games these last couple of weeks.

872
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 2: They've played some really good teams. This should be a

873
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 2: cake walk for them, Like they're just such a better team.

874
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 2: You know, maybe Tennessee's defense gives then a little bit

875
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 2: of problems because they do have a good front. But man,

876
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 2: I just love this matchup for this Bills team coming

877
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,320
Speaker 2: back home, and you know, I'll check the weather report,

878
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:31,839
Speaker 2: but we have a big cold front coming through here

879
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 2: up in the Northeast, maybe some snow, which would be

880
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 2: even more of a reason to love this Bills team.

881
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: We've just seen Josh Allen is just really great playing

882
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 2: in that type of weather at home. So yeah, not

883
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,799
Speaker 2: a bet and rushing to make right now. I can't

884
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: see this going up that much more, honestly. I just

885
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 2: the way the NFL has been this season, right, Yeah,

886
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 2: we talked about you just don't really see huge dogs

887
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 2: like we used to. It just it rarely keeps going up,

888
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 2: usually comes back down like we saw last year with Cleveland.

889
00:47:57,120 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 2: Right Cleveland got to nine and a half, I thought

890
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:02,399
Speaker 2: to myself, great, I'll be able to get a ten

891
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 2: for sure by kickoff. I think it was seven and

892
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,839
Speaker 2: a half by kickoff. So this this is tough where

893
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 2: if you do want to bet the Bills, I think

894
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 2: you can just roll the dice and wait, maybe it

895
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 2: does come back down across that number.

896
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 1: Eight Carolina Washington. Washington's is seven a half point favorite.

897
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:21,359
Speaker 1: We'll be on the Panthers pass.

898
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately we have to nothing.

899
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:26,920
Speaker 1: Lef to say. No.

900
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 2: My only thing I'll say is why not put Bryce

901
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 2: Young in? At this point you're one in five. Let

902
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 2: the kid play it out. Just see if you can

903
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 2: see anything worth even building up on. Because this is it.

904
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: You're gonna lose out. You know you're probably gonna take

905
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 2: a quarterback at the top of the draft. You might

906
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:46,919
Speaker 2: as well try to showcase a little bit or Bryce

907
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 2: Young and then maybe you can trade them for a

908
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: bag of peanuts at the end of the season. But

909
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 2: to keep starting Andy Dalton is just stupid at this point.

910
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 1: It turns out we got like one dead cat bounce

911
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 1: out of Andy Dalton and everything else we see. We

912
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: saw that game. He's been a mirage.

913
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, that cat's dead.

914
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 1: That cat has bounced down. It's now bounced into the ground.

915
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,879
Speaker 1: It's never coming back up. Las Vegas Raiders at Los

916
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams Rams six and a half point favorites. You

917
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,959
Speaker 1: talked about it on Sunday night. You're thinking Cooper Cup

918
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 1: might come back. The word is he should be back

919
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: for week seven. I haven't seen if that's official yet,

920
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:24,879
Speaker 1: but you were saying grabbed the five and a half.

921
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 1: It was sort of a mini Simon Says esque moment

922
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:30,560
Speaker 1: because you felt this number would go to six and

923
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,479
Speaker 1: a half. That's exactly what.

924
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 2: Happened, yep. And now unfortunately have to play the other side.

925
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 2: We're supposed to take the Raiders now that it has

926
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 2: crossed that key number of six to six and a half.

927
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 2: So I'll have more for this game come Thursday. When

928
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 2: Chad you said once, I do know what injury reports are,

929
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 2: and I can get a better number on this one

930
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 2: right now, because right now I have it right at six.

931
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 2: So it's like I thought that number would go up

932
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 2: once once we got news about who was going to

933
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 2: play in this game. It has gone up. Am I

934
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,399
Speaker 2: rushing to bet the Raiders right now? And I don't

935
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 2: even who they's st any quarterback is No, I am

936
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 2: not in any way, So another game will happy just

937
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 2: to wait and see if this line keeps growing up.

938
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: Can I say that?

939
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 2: No, Cleveland just moved to six. So that's why I

940
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 2: didn't think it. Simon says, fucking, hey, dude, I might

941
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 2: have to rush and go take that six whilet stole up.

942
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: Wait, but you're going to take the six on Cleveland

943
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 1: is a six point dog. It's a six point dog.

944
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 1: So you should be glad it was it five and

945
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 1: a half.

946
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:30,879
Speaker 2: I know I'm saying I'm glad. That's why I didn't

947
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,879
Speaker 2: make it. Simon says, half, I was like, this number

948
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 2: should go up to six. There it is. It's at six.

949
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 2: Now you can go grab that if you want the Browns,

950
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 2: which I do.

951
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 1: Go get the Browns plus six. You know what's interesting

952
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 1: on the Raiders. One thing I want to say quickly

953
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 1: is I like when I was doing the research yesterday,

954
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 1: I'm not looking to bet on the Raiders right now,

955
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 1: but I do think that there's a little bit of

956
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 1: a misleading attitude about the Raiders because of what happened

957
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,919
Speaker 1: with the Steelers. They were in that game, like late

958
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 1: in the first half, they had just picked off Justin Fields.

959
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 1: A roughing penalty kept the drive alive. The Steelers scored

960
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,839
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Then Boswell kicked a sixty five year old

961
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: field goal. Yeah, they were down twenty two to seven.

962
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 1: They had a touchdown called back for a penalty. The

963
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 1: next play, Abdullah fumbles at the one yard line. I'm

964
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 1: glad we didn't bet them, but the score, like was

965
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 1: much worse than the box score indicates. So that's why

966
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: I like six and a half doesn't doesn't scare me

967
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 1: as much.

968
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:34,479
Speaker 2: And on the flip side, we've talked at Naismen about

969
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 2: how bad this Rams team is altogether and how many

970
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 2: injuries they've had and yep, Cooper cups coming back, that

971
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 2: doesn't fix that. Their offensive line has just been terrible

972
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: and horribly banged up. And you know that's still the

973
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 2: strength of this Raiders team, right Their front four is

974
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 2: what keeps them in those games. So yeah, just something

975
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on that matchup.

976
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 1: Game of the week, Game of the first half of

977
00:51:56,280 --> 00:52:01,240
Speaker 1: the year, Kansas City at San Francisco. The fundamental questions

978
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 1: right now, San Francisco is a one point favorite, down

979
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: from one and a half. Was that one went up

980
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 1: to one and a half, now back down to one.

981
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 1: What has changed since the Super Bowl last year? That

982
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 1: is the fundamental questions. Like last season, the Niners statistically

983
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:24,919
Speaker 1: more impressive in every offensive category, but the Chiefs much

984
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:30,320
Speaker 1: more impressive and amongst league leaders in advanced defensive metrics.

985
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 1: Their third in pass rush, eighth in rush d tenth

986
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 1: in red zone touchdown percentage. The Niners, by the way,

987
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:42,720
Speaker 1: we have talked about all of their issues without Christian

988
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 1: McCaffrey in the red zone. So this past week against

989
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 1: the Seahawks Thursday night, they were three for five for

990
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: touchdowns in the red zone. One of their three field

991
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,239
Speaker 1: goals was from the twenty three, so let's count that

992
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 1: as three for six. So still not like thriving in

993
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 1: the red zone where the Chiefs will thrive in the

994
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 1: red zone defensively. And then we got Mahomes as a

995
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 1: dog three or last twenty five eight and one against

996
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 1: the spread. So tell me what has changed since the

997
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:17,320
Speaker 1: Super Bowl to make us want to take the Niners.

998
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 2: Here, Simon says, go grab that plus one and a

999
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 2: half on that Chiefs team right now. A couple of

1000
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:24,279
Speaker 2: books out there, still the plus one and a half.

1001
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 2: You gotta go grab it like this. Chad just gave

1002
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 2: you the stat about Mahomes the dog. It's not even that.

1003
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 2: What team do you have more confidence in, even more

1004
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 2: so this year than the other team in the fourth quarter.

1005
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:38,239
Speaker 2: It's got to be the Chiefs. Like, what team has

1006
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 2: won a bunch of games year in the fourth quarter

1007
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 2: the other team has melted in the second half. They

1008
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 2: tried to blow that Seahawks game, and they really did,

1009
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 2: like letting that kick return everything. They're just we talked

1010
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 2: something's missing, something's wrong with this forty nine ers team

1011
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 2: right now, and I think we both nailed talking about

1012
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:56,399
Speaker 2: the McCaffrey thing. That to me is the difference there.

1013
00:53:56,400 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 2: Instead of getting seven, they keep putting up three and

1014
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,400
Speaker 2: and it's only even a tougher against this Chiefs defense,

1015
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 2: who is just brutal to try to score on once

1016
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 2: you get in the red zone. They're just spags, knows

1017
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 2: exactly what to do once the field gets really small

1018
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:12,799
Speaker 2: and tight. So I love this matchup for this Chiefs team.

1019
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 2: And you know the fact that I can get them

1020
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 2: a plus one and a half, I'm gonna take it

1021
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 2: right now because I could easily see this flipping to

1022
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 2: being them minus one by kickoff. It's just professionals public.

1023
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 2: How do they not all come in on this Chiefs

1024
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 2: team in this spot, they just all together been the

1025
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 2: most complete team this season. Now you throw each other

1026
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 2: coming off a bye week, we know, and your week

1027
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 2: coming off a bye week. It's just the perfect storm.

1028
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 2: I'm so glad you to make the exact decision. Let

1029
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:42,759
Speaker 2: me steal this one, Simon says. When Simon, we do.

1030
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,759
Speaker 1: Like I was thinking about it, I had another one.

1031
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:48,640
Speaker 2: I was waiting for it. You were aligning up there

1032
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 2: to say it right before you pass it to me,

1033
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 2: and I.

1034
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 1: Was like, I was, I was, I'm gracious like that

1035
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 1: West Coast time. I'm not as sharp as I know.

1036
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 2: I know what you're waiting for.

1037
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 1: You do, don't you? Sunday Night Folk, New York Jets

1038
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh Steelers. Look, this is breaking news avas of

1039
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: the last hour ninety minutes or so. Mike Tomlin says,

1040
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:12,320
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson may start coincidentally or not over the last

1041
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 1: say twelve hours, could be because there was leaks about

1042
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,759
Speaker 1: DeVante Adams. But this line has moved from Steelers minus

1043
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 1: one and a half to Steelers plus one and a

1044
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 1: half change that truly changes the calculus on this game,

1045
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: because if you ever want to bet Mike Tomlin. It's

1046
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is a home dog, especially as a short

1047
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,359
Speaker 1: home dog. Don't I don't know what to do here.

1048
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 2: We all talk too much. Sharp dues can just see

1049
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 2: it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway,

1050
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 2: They just watching, you know what I mean? Yeah? I

1051
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 2: like the Jets, especially if it's Russell Wilson. You go,

1052
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 2: when you dive into numbers on this Pittsburgh team and

1053
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 2: now it sounds crazy me justin fields is the reason

1054
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:54,760
Speaker 2: this team is four and two, and I think the

1055
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 2: line movement reflects that, Like Devontad Adams doesn't move the

1056
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 2: line three points. I tell you that much. A guy

1057
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 2: who hasn't played in weeks at his age, you know,

1058
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 2: he's how many snaps is he gonna be playing for

1059
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 2: this team? Right? They're gonna slowly revamp him into this offense.

1060
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 2: So to me, once it was known that Russell Wilson's

1061
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 2: gonna take first team reps in practice all week, that's

1062
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 2: what this is really moved. The movement to me, is

1063
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 2: based off of So I like this for the Jets. Dude,

1064
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 2: Now you're going from having one of the best rushing

1065
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 2: quarterbacks in all football. I mean, the guy ran for

1066
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:29,800
Speaker 2: what two touchdowns last week? Like, yeah, anytime the pocket

1067
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 2: breaks down, he's incredible at getting out of it. Russell

1068
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:35,800
Speaker 2: Wilson has been a good rushing quarterback in like five years.

1069
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 2: Like this guy is old and slow, his arm is

1070
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:41,879
Speaker 2: not what he used to be. And they have one

1071
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 2: good receiver in pickings Like okay, now we put sauce

1072
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 2: on him to shadow him. Who's Russell Wilson turning two now?

1073
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 2: Is like, I do not Tomon rarely makes really bad moves.

1074
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:55,280
Speaker 2: This is a really bad move to me. Like he's

1075
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,600
Speaker 2: too loyal to the veterans and the ogs in this

1076
00:56:57,719 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 2: league where you know, I get it. He gave the

1077
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,239
Speaker 2: man his word in the middle of summer. That's why.

1078
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,359
Speaker 2: That's what it feels like to me too, Like it's

1079
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:08,840
Speaker 2: just I get it, dude. Tomlin's old school is a

1080
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 2: man of honor. I don't think a lot about the

1081
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 2: things that I say, to be honest with you, but

1082
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 2: you're four and two, and your strength right now is

1083
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:18,400
Speaker 2: the fact that you have a running quarterback behind a

1084
00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 2: terrible offensive line. And I just do not understand this move,

1085
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 2: especially you just saw Josh Allen rip up this Jets defense.

1086
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 2: Anytime you want to run the ball like they just

1087
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 2: they don't have the guys on the outside to keep

1088
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 2: up with running quarterbacks. I don't I just do not

1089
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 2: get this this at all. So I'm taking the Jets now,

1090
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 2: especially it's under two. I know it's a little chalk

1091
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 2: and I'm with Chat. It's like, I kind of want

1092
00:57:38,680 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 2: to be on Pittsburgh. So I hope, my hope is

1093
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 2: we get the same thing with the Colts last week,

1094
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 2: where this number gets up to two and a half

1095
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 2: and then they pull the rug. It was just a

1096
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 2: diversion the whole week, and Fields is the starter. It

1097
00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 2: was never going to be Russell Wilson. They just wanted

1098
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 2: a team doctor prepare for both quarterbacks, and then I'll

1099
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 2: put a larger bet on Pittsburgh cacause I do want

1100
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 2: to be on Pittsburgh here, especially as a home dog.

1101
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 2: But at this number I won one and a half,

1102
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Jet, especially if it's gonna be

1103
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson at QB.

1104
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 1: Simon. It is time for the executive decision.

1105
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 2: There we go.

1106
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 1: Baltimore is playing at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a

1107
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:27,680
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite. This was my first

1108
00:58:27,720 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 1: game that I eyeballed on Sunday night. It was Bucks

1109
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 1: four and a half. The pros hit it immediately, it's

1110
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 1: now three and a half. It might have been because

1111
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 1: I was saying how much I liked it at four

1112
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 1: and a half. And the reason I like this is

1113
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 1: because of what the Bucks can do against the run

1114
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 1: with Videvea in the middle, and what Baker can do

1115
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 1: against a really bad Ravens pasty. Like we're going to

1116
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 1: talk about, the Ravens rush D is borderline his I

1117
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 1: mean rush offenses borderline historic. And the rush D is great,

1118
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 1: top five in the league, there's no no doubt about it.

1119
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:04,440
Speaker 1: But like this Bucks D is dreadful in coverage and

1120
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 1: against the run, two things that Lamar and the Ravens

1121
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 1: can take advantage of. I understand that, but this Ravens

1122
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 1: defense has been so bad that it gives every single

1123
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 1: quarterback a chance to stay in the game. And I

1124
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 1: do think what we'll see with the Bucks that we

1125
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:26,000
Speaker 1: didn't see with the Commanders, who also had a chance

1126
00:59:26,320 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 1: to backdoor cover on this. They've actually got better weapons.

1127
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 1: Like Mike Evans is a top notch receiver. We saw

1128
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 1: with Godwin how well he can play that middle of

1129
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 1: the field is going to be open. Like I also

1130
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 1: want to fade the road public favorite despite last weekend

1131
00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:55,880
Speaker 1: since twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, I'm sorry, since

1132
00:59:56,280 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 1: twenty thirteen, the road public favorite forty eight percent against

1133
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:07,439
Speaker 1: the spread, Home dogs of more than a field goal

1134
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 1: off of a win of fourteen plus points sixty three

1135
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:17,280
Speaker 1: percent against the spread the past twenty years. It's just

1136
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 1: a good spot for Baker. Give me the box exec decision.

1137
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:25,920
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you

1138
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:31,200
Speaker 2: have your honor's texting your number executive decision? Yeah, I

1139
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:33,360
Speaker 2: love that stat. And we talked there's gonna be a

1140
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:34,960
Speaker 2: bunch of home dogs this week. They're gonna get free

1141
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:37,360
Speaker 2: point of value. This is a game. We already lost

1142
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 2: that point right the four and a half, it's gone,

1143
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 2: it's three and a half. Same with the Giants. Giants

1144
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 2: for four to four and a half. Now it's down

1145
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 2: to three and a half. Three. You know, clearly a

1146
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:48,880
Speaker 2: professionals took a stand on those games because you talk

1147
01:00:48,920 --> 01:00:50,760
Speaker 2: about they're just too those numbers are too high for

1148
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:54,280
Speaker 2: those matchups against those teams. And you nailed it here

1149
01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 2: with your Tampa breakdown My only hesitation of people, don't

1150
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 2: put your full union yet on this Tampa line. What's

1151
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:04,840
Speaker 2: the deal with Mike Evans? Well, I need to know

1152
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:06,800
Speaker 2: what's going like Evans, because that is a key to

1153
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 2: me to what makes that offense just tick. There's there's

1154
01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 2: no one like hiving the NFL in the red zone

1155
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 2: right now like he is. Him and Baker especially, they're

1156
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 2: they're so good in the red zone together setting up

1157
01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:22,040
Speaker 2: easy touchdowns. I think Baker is up to fifteen touchdowns.

1158
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 2: And earlier today I did that show Roundtable which given

1159
01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 2: listen to it, go check it out. It's in the

1160
01:01:28,080 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 2: Action app and you know you can find it in

1161
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 2: the Action Network on the whole different podcasts. Brad Anderson

1162
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:34,920
Speaker 2: had a great bet about Tampa being one of the

1163
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 2: more undervalued teams right now. You can get them at

1164
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 2: twenty two to one to be the one seed in

1165
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 2: the NFC like this, if they win this game, they

1166
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:46,680
Speaker 2: pull off this upset, that immediately will drop down to

1167
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 2: fifteen to one, sixteen to one, like, that's a huge

1168
01:01:49,440 --> 01:01:52,080
Speaker 2: line mover this win right here. So that's the type

1169
01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 2: of thing where if you if you're hesitant, you don't

1170
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 2: want to bet the money line here because Lamar is

1171
01:01:56,560 --> 01:01:58,040
Speaker 2: this is another Evans said, I think he's up to

1172
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:02,000
Speaker 2: twenty three and one straight up against the NFC. I

1173
01:02:02,440 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 2: totally understand the hesitation. I mean, me and Chad are

1174
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 2: no doubt cann have this in the money line round robin,

1175
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 2: but matchup wise, he nailed it with the V to

1176
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:13,840
Speaker 2: day take though, like he's gonna he's gonna shut down

1177
01:02:13,880 --> 01:02:15,520
Speaker 2: what's been the motor of this team right now, which

1178
01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 2: is Derrick Henry, Like everything has really run through him.

1179
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 2: And yes, we've seen Lamar be great this season passing

1180
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:24,520
Speaker 2: the ball, honestly, Like I've been so impressed about how

1181
01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:27,200
Speaker 2: well he's been passing the ball. But this feels like

1182
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 2: a letdown spot for this team. And I know it

1183
01:02:29,040 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 2: sounds stupid. Historically, he doesn't play as great in his

1184
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 2: home state of Florida. Like I mean, Chad probably remember,

1185
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 2: but I always remember this because it was such a

1186
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:39,200
Speaker 2: crazy bed at the time. You know, he went down

1187
01:02:39,240 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 2: to Miami is I think it was like, got an

1188
01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 2: eight point in Favorite on a Thursday night. He got

1189
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 2: absolutely rolled by Miami. I think he lost by like

1190
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:48,440
Speaker 2: five or six. And it's just these type of snares

1191
01:02:48,440 --> 01:02:51,840
Speaker 2: where it's like he's a big favorite. Everyone's blowing smoke.

1192
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:53,720
Speaker 2: He heads down to Florida and his team gets rolled.

1193
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 2: It's it's happened before with this Lamar team. So the

1194
01:02:57,040 --> 01:03:00,520
Speaker 2: trends like it. We like the number. I'd grab it

1195
01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 2: right now, like Chad just said it, three and a half.

1196
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 2: But don't go too crazy because if Mike Emans is out,

1197
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 2: this easily will go back up to four to four

1198
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:10,520
Speaker 2: and a half. Like that's how much not just my model,

1199
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 2: but sportsbook model is that Evans is worth this spread,

1200
01:03:13,520 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 2: especially this team. So yeah, are our big reason is

1201
01:03:17,360 --> 01:03:20,120
Speaker 2: we think there's an advantage on this Bucks team. Bell

1202
01:03:20,160 --> 01:03:24,080
Speaker 2: attack the secondary of Baltimore. I mean, the DC is

1203
01:03:24,120 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 2: this three two year old, and I think we all

1204
01:03:26,920 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 2: can clearly say he's above his head at this point.

1205
01:03:29,240 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 2: Like their defense, the teams can move the ball against them.

1206
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,439
Speaker 2: Like you said Washington last week, that shouldn't have been close.

1207
01:03:35,440 --> 01:03:37,400
Speaker 2: They should have dominated that game and they couldn't put

1208
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:39,800
Speaker 2: them away like they kept letting Washington stay in it

1209
01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:42,080
Speaker 2: just because they can't stop the pass. Their secondary just

1210
01:03:42,080 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 2: isn't good enough right now. So Chad nailed. I like

1211
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 2: this matchup. We like the plus three and a half

1212
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 2: with Tampa.

1213
01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:50,840
Speaker 1: All right, so at the end of it, we got

1214
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:53,280
Speaker 1: some games that we think will be able to carry over.

1215
01:03:54,560 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 2: We have one more game, right, yeah, we do.

1216
01:03:56,640 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 1: We have one more game on Monday night Atlanta. I'm

1217
01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:03,880
Speaker 1: sorry the Chargers at Arizona. Arizona is a two and

1218
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 1: a half point dog.

1219
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:06,880
Speaker 2: You know where we're supposed to go?

1220
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 1: I don't want to. You have to, though, I don't

1221
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:15,919
Speaker 1: want to, And so it's funny. I actually didn't even

1222
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:18,640
Speaker 1: put a ton of notes into the script for this

1223
01:04:18,720 --> 01:04:24,440
Speaker 1: one because it just felt weird to say, are we

1224
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:25,600
Speaker 1: gonna get the Cardinals here?

1225
01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 2: I know, I hate it. We have to, we have

1226
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 2: to take the Cardinals at this number. It's just why

1227
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:32,880
Speaker 2: is this not a pick?

1228
01:04:33,560 --> 01:04:33,640
Speaker 1: You?

1229
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:36,120
Speaker 2: Are the Chargers really minus two and a half better

1230
01:04:36,440 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 2: than this Arizona team, especially on the road. I don't know.

1231
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 2: It just feels like it's too much love and respect

1232
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 2: to a horrorball team that I guess Arizona is a

1233
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 2: bad team, because I'm saying all they've done this year

1234
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 2: is be bad teams, and when they play good teams,

1235
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:54,520
Speaker 2: they kind of falter. And I feel like the same here.

1236
01:04:54,560 --> 01:04:56,600
Speaker 2: I feels like we're getting a good number on Arizona

1237
01:04:56,640 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 2: team that they're outdoors in the l then every little

1238
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 2: thing that could have gone wrong went wrong for them, right,

1239
01:05:02,880 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 2: it just felt like everything went wrong for them, and

1240
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 2: now we're getting a free two points of value on Arizona.

1241
01:05:10,040 --> 01:05:12,120
Speaker 2: I hate it too, and that makes up that should

1242
01:05:12,120 --> 01:05:13,440
Speaker 2: make us want to even take even more. And we

1243
01:05:13,480 --> 01:05:15,640
Speaker 2: both hate it, but we know this is the right

1244
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:17,960
Speaker 2: number in the right spot to take us Arizona team.

1245
01:05:18,040 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 2: So I'm looking forward to hearing the sharp calls. I

1246
01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:23,800
Speaker 2: know some professionals who very early came in heavy on

1247
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:26,560
Speaker 2: this Chargers team because they like the matchup of their

1248
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:30,000
Speaker 2: offensive front of the Chargers versus these defensive front of Arizona.

1249
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:31,880
Speaker 2: If they this is a matter of where you can

1250
01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:36,000
Speaker 2: bullyball them, totally get it. But at what point does

1251
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 2: that number move too much so that that, to me

1252
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:40,760
Speaker 2: is where not tell you about it right now? I

1253
01:05:40,800 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 2: think you can another number. You can be patient and

1254
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:44,720
Speaker 2: maybe we'll get a three in the next day, day

1255
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:45,040
Speaker 2: or two.

1256
01:05:46,800 --> 01:05:50,080
Speaker 1: Atlanta two and a half. We talked about green Bay

1257
01:05:50,080 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 1: two and a half. We talked about obviously Cleveland now

1258
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:56,000
Speaker 1: at plus six Detroits and a half.

1259
01:05:56,560 --> 01:06:00,360
Speaker 2: No, yeah, Evan just gave us an update. Oh my god,

1260
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:03,040
Speaker 2: I know we're gonna have to take it. It's brutal.

1261
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:05,919
Speaker 1: It's gonna be six and a half in the contest now,

1262
01:06:06,160 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 1: I think.

1263
01:06:06,520 --> 01:06:07,840
Speaker 2: You could get up to seven seven and a half.

1264
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 2: I mean this is steaming up right now.

1265
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:14,840
Speaker 1: Detroit two and a half, Las Vegas six and a half, case,

1266
01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:18,960
Speaker 1: one and a half, Jets, one and a half bucks,

1267
01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:22,320
Speaker 1: three and a half cards plus two and a half.

1268
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 1: Like Jesus, I'm looking at this, I'm like, oh my god,

1269
01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:30,760
Speaker 1: this just has the makings of an exhausting, excruciating weekend

1270
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 1: filled with tracking illegal procedures by Paris Johnson. As a reminder,

1271
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:40,480
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1272
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:43,080
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1273
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1274
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:49,320
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1275
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Speaker 1: the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five

1279
01:06:59,480 --> 01:07:04,840
Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:08,760
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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01:07:08,760 --> 01:07:12,120
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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01:07:12,200 --> 01:07:14,640
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

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01:07:14,680 --> 01:07:17,960
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

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01:07:17,960 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday,

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01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:25,320
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern to cover the rest of our week

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01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:30,040
Speaker 1: seven best bets. Sign up for the Favorites contest Favorites

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01:07:30,080 --> 01:07:33,880
Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

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01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, leave us

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01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,320
Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want, feedback this gift until

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01:07:39,360 --> 01:07:49,840
Speaker 1: next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:53,120
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

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01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:55,960
Speaker 1: Help us available twenty four to seven at one eight

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01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:56,880
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler