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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading in the corner.

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Speaker 3: Ten seconds of maining, so just go show under the basket,

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Speaker 3: Under the basket, it's the truth for the.

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Speaker 2: Wind God a miracle. I just shut the water. Hit

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Speaker 2: that one from the parking lot. What's up the gener nation?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 2: Bett NGM. This is the Conference Tournament college Basketball Betting Preview,

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Speaker 2: Part one of ten. I'm stucky and joining me for

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Speaker 2: this episode is the one and only mister Mike Randall.

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Speaker 2: No one else I'd rather kick things off with. We

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Speaker 2: are going to cover today the Horizon, the Sunbolt, and

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Speaker 2: the NEC. There'll be an episode that's also out today.

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Speaker 2: They're to cover three other conference tournaments that get kicked

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Speaker 2: off earlier this week, and then we will have the

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Speaker 2: other eight episodes throughout. Let's say they'll all be out

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Speaker 2: by next Monday. It's a beautiful time of the year.

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Speaker 2: Wall to wall action in college basketball. March is almost

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Speaker 2: official here. I think it the official start for me

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Speaker 2: is and we have the first daytime conference tournament action.

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Rentally excited?

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Speaker 1: Man? If you know you know listen.

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Speaker 3: March Madness is great popular people love the Final Four,

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Speaker 3: but for junkies like us who can't get enough college hoops,

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Speaker 3: it starts with the conference tournaments, goes right into March

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Speaker 3: madness that first weekend stuck. There's nothing better. Conference tournament

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Speaker 3: season is so underrated here for sports betters because there's upsets,

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Speaker 3: there's value, and if you know the teams, you do

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Speaker 3: have a big time advantage.

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Speaker 2: YEP. A couple words of advice I will say, first,

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Speaker 2: make sure you shop around. We're gonna talk about futures.

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Speaker 2: Do not take a worse price if there's a better

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Speaker 2: one out there. It's the easiest thing you could do.

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Speaker 2: You should do that always when it comes to every bet,

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Speaker 2: but especially when you're dealing with the futures market. Let's

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Speaker 2: take what we'll have up here. I have Big South odds.

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Speaker 2: Let's see Radford fifty to one, thirty five to one.

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Speaker 2: So if you wanted to take Radford, why that thirty

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Speaker 2: five to one. There's a fifty to one out there.

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Speaker 2: Shop around. Make sure you get the best price. Also

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Speaker 2: you want to be and we'll help you with this.

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Speaker 2: Be aware of injury situations the format, do they reced right.

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Speaker 2: You might look at a form. You might look at

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Speaker 2: a bracket and project okay, because matchups are super important

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Speaker 2: this time of the year, market's really efficient. We kind

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Speaker 2: of know who these teams are from a power. At

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Speaker 2: the perspective, matchups matter. If you look at just the

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Speaker 2: bracket and you see, okay, this team's going to play

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Speaker 2: this team in the second round might not be the

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Speaker 2: case because they might recede, which the Horizon does, and

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Speaker 2: we will start there. The Horizon League Tournament. I love

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Speaker 2: this league because there's so many different contrasting styles. You

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Speaker 2: have some a lot of zone defenses, you have some presses,

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Speaker 2: so there's different contrasting styles and makes for some fascinating matchups.

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Speaker 2: This is a league where all eleven teams make it,

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Speaker 2: which means yes, Detroit, you did get in the top

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Speaker 2: five seeds, get a bye to the quarterfinals, and the

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Speaker 2: first two rounds we played on campus sites. Then the

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Speaker 2: semis will be played in Indianapolis. The one thing I

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Speaker 2: don't like about this conference tournament is I like conference

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Speaker 2: tournaments that really reward the regular season winners. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's a whole body of work. Take I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think the West, the WCC is the most extreme of these,

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Speaker 2: where you get like a triple the top twosies get

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Speaker 2: a triple buy into the semis. That's not necessarily the

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Speaker 2: case here. And I also like other turns, which we'll

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Speaker 2: talk about, where you have to win like three games,

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Speaker 2: you have to win like four games in four days

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Speaker 2: if you want to win it as like a tense.

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Speaker 2: That's not the case here. First round games on Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: orders on Thursday, get a nice break till Monday, and

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Speaker 2: then whoever comes out of Monday ask to play back

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Speaker 2: to back on Tuesday. So you know, bench depth doesn't

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Speaker 2: really matter as much for the horizon. Oakland did get

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Speaker 2: the number one overall seed. They are what I think

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Speaker 2: close to two to one to cut down the nets,

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Speaker 2: I actually think that they're pretty vulnerable plus two fifty

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Speaker 2: you think you can get out there pretty vulnerable top seed.

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Speaker 2: They're jump shot reliant offense and they play a zone defense.

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Speaker 2: I think that leads them a little vulnerable. The way

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Speaker 2: that we're going to approach this is we'll talk about

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Speaker 2: who we like to win it, potential sleeper, and then

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Speaker 2: maybe a long shot, and then any matchups that you

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Speaker 2: want to mention. So Randall, I'll let you kick things off.

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Speaker 2: What are you seeing in the Horizon League.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, first, little history stuck, So you go back to

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Speaker 3: the last five tournaments. Did some research here. Only one

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Speaker 3: time did a one seed not only win, but make

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Speaker 3: the championship game. That was Northern Kentucky back at twenty

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Speaker 3: nineteen when they beat Wright State. We've had a two

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Speaker 3: verses and eight to one, versa two with versus five,

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Speaker 3: four versus three, and a two verse a three, and

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Speaker 3: you hit all the sailing points which matter.

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Speaker 2: But by the way, to take that a step further,

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Speaker 2: over the past ten tournaments, the winner of a four

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Speaker 2: to five game has won this tournament as many times

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Speaker 2: at five. So the winner the four game five game

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Speaker 2: has won this tournament five to the past ten in

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Speaker 2: the top two seats of one the other five. So

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Speaker 2: winner four to five has won just as many as

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Speaker 2: the one two seats. Very chaotic tournament historically.

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Speaker 3: The gad yeah, which again double edged short punishes the

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Speaker 3: teams like you said, that dominate during the regular season

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Speaker 3: and do the best, but it also makes for a

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Speaker 3: crazy tournament. So a couple things I noticed here. First off,

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Speaker 3: you mentioned it you have the Tuesday Thursday, Monday, Tuesday,

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Speaker 3: so there's plenty of time here except for the Monday

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Speaker 3: to Tuesday, and that's.

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Speaker 1: At a neutral site. So the first.

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Speaker 3: Thing that jumped out to me is we're going to

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Speaker 3: talk about Noah Reynolds and whether he is going to

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Speaker 3: be available for green.

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Speaker 1: Bay or not.

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Speaker 3: Stuck odd with green Bay first time since two thousand,

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Speaker 3: two thousand and one that they only have one player

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Speaker 3: averaging in double digits, and Reynolds is hurt. Of course,

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Speaker 3: the status with the high mid ankle sparer trying to

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Speaker 3: figure out but to get that double by right State

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Speaker 3: Northern Kentucky at the four to five get a double buy.

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Speaker 3: But they know that they're playing each other. So the

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Speaker 3: other teams Oakland, Youngstown, green Bay, I think have a

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Speaker 3: little bit of an advantage here because they're going to

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Speaker 3: be playing an inferior opponent.

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Speaker 1: But I agree with you.

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Speaker 3: I think Oakland is vulnerable. The odds to me very

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Speaker 3: odd as well. I think there's value in different parts

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Speaker 3: of the bracket year, and there's one I like that's

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Speaker 3: going to play on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: We'll get into that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I if you're looking at I'm out on green Bay.

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Speaker 2: They stumbled down the stretch and I was four or five.

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Speaker 2: Heard some bad things about the locker room and some

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Speaker 2: things going on there that I won't get into. But

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Speaker 2: I think that they're extremely vulnerable, and we don't know

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Speaker 2: the status of Reynolds. He's obviously huge, so they're losing

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Speaker 2: streak coincide with him being hurt. He averages I think

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Speaker 2: about twenty a game, and so I think they're both.

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Speaker 2: They just got crushed Milwaukee basically as a boy, they

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Speaker 2: played Detroit in the first round, So I think if

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Speaker 2: you're looking for a super long shot, maybe Milwaukee because

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Speaker 2: they get to play green Bay and then look, they

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Speaker 2: got swept by the top two seeds Oakland and Youngstown,

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Speaker 2: but three of the four games went to overtime, so

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Speaker 2: they were right there and they split with Reed State.

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Speaker 2: So because I think green Bay is vulnerable, I think

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee is intriguing, like thirty to you know, thirty forty

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Speaker 2: to one shot, if you're looking for a lottery ticket

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Speaker 2: my team, And look, I'm also out on Northern Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: Northern Kentucky. I don't think. I'm pretty sure and I

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Speaker 2: don't know this not but in a here a the

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Speaker 2: Marquette transfer, he's been out. I don't think he's gonna play.

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Speaker 2: They already lost Sam Vincent and they play an extended

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Speaker 2: matchup zone that's the top in the bottom of their zone,

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Speaker 2: and Northern Kentucky's just not the same team. I would

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Speaker 2: be very intrigued by the Norse if they were at

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Speaker 2: full strength. They're not, so I'd like at Wright State

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Speaker 2: to get by that game. Right State is the best

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Speaker 2: offense in the league and they they grade out the

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Speaker 2: lead against zone man press. They their offense can treat.

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Speaker 2: Now they can't stop a nosebleed, but I think Right

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Speaker 2: State at plus three twenty is a team om targeting

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Speaker 2: here the one thing that gives me pause very you know,

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Speaker 2: they can shoot. They do everything well on offense, very

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Speaker 2: rim or line offense, post heavy. They got swept by

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Speaker 2: Youngstown and Youngstown has the best rim defense in the league.

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Speaker 2: They can bring in you off the bench, they bring

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Speaker 2: in a pair of seven footers. They're I think ninety

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Speaker 2: first percentile defending at the rim. They want both meetings

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Speaker 2: against Right State by double digits, which scares me at bit.

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Speaker 2: Youngstown's around plus two to fifty, and because of the receding,

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Speaker 2: if Right State wins, and then if what I think

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Speaker 2: happens if Milwaukee beats Green Bay or there's more chaos

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Speaker 2: than that, lower seed from the bottom would potentially play Oakland,

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Speaker 2: and then Right State would play Youngstown in the semis,

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Speaker 2: which I don't want, so that gives me a little

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Speaker 2: bit of pause. But my pick is the Right State offense.

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Speaker 2: They could simply outscore everyone in this tournament. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to. They don't stop anyone on defense. But what

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Speaker 2: about you? Who do you like as a potential long

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Speaker 2: shadow or just to cut down the nets two?

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Speaker 3: First, the Green Bay I'm out on them as well, No,

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Speaker 3: Noah Reynolds. In fact, I think it's an incredible draw

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Speaker 3: from Milwaukee if they get to play Green Bay. Yes,

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Speaker 3: the game would be at Green Bay rivalry not a

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Speaker 3: problem with them in Green Bay shorthanded. So to me, Stuck,

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Speaker 3: I'm getting odds here, like you said, for Milwaukee thirty

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Speaker 3: to one. Ever it is, and I think they're absolutely

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Speaker 3: flying into the semi finals. So that is my value.

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Speaker 3: Right theres my long shot, but it's also a value.

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Speaker 1: I agree.

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Speaker 3: I think Wright State greater than Northern Kentucky as well,

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Speaker 3: so looking at it, I love Wright State with their odds.

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Speaker 3: I love Milwaukee as a long shot as well. I

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Speaker 3: like Oakland a little better than Youngstown.

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Speaker 1: I get it.

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Speaker 3: I just believe in Campy and I think Oakland can

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Speaker 3: mess things up a little bit with the way they

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Speaker 3: play defense in their matchups and their experience. Youngstown, I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure about them a little bit up and down.

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Speaker 3: They pushed the pace of the best defensive team in

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Speaker 3: the Horizon. Like you said at the rim, They've been

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Speaker 3: fortunate with teams of poor free throw shooting against them

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Speaker 3: as well. They did have a lot of experience, but

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Speaker 3: it took a while to joke because they only three

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Speaker 3: hundred ninth the minutes continuity, so it took a while

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Speaker 3: for them to get going. They are hot with three

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Speaker 3: straight wins four of the last five, but I lean

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Speaker 3: Wright State and I really love Milwaukee. BJ Freeman is

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Speaker 3: playing at a different level right now. They would crush

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Speaker 3: Detroit and then they get the Green Bay game. They

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Speaker 3: BJ Freeman is taking over and they've won without him stuck.

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Speaker 3: They won at Cleveland State without BJ Freeman and he

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Speaker 3: is simply playing at another level. Really struggled to start

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Speaker 3: the year. I think he was suspended for something or

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Speaker 3: he couldn't play for a game something happened early on.

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Speaker 3: But focusing on Reich State, focusing on Milwaukee. If I

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Speaker 3: had a choose between Oakland and Youngstown, I'll take Oakland

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Speaker 3: here because I like their odds a little bit better. Oakland,

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Speaker 3: you can get better than Youngstown. Youngstown is the favorite,

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Speaker 3: and I don't like taking the favorite in the horizon.

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Speaker 2: Call me crazy, Yeah, I don't see any value in Oakland.

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Speaker 2: I think they're a pretty vulnerable one as far as

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Speaker 2: mid majors go. And then because of you know, Green Bay,

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Speaker 2: Northern Kentucky, the two and five seed being you know, shorthanded,

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Speaker 2: I think that opens up some opportunities for these other seeds. Milwaukee,

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Speaker 2: right states. If I picked to cut down the nets, Milwaukee,

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Speaker 2: if you're looking for a longer shot, just throw some

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Speaker 2: counts change for you know, a week on a thirty

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Speaker 2: to one shot. So we're on the.

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Speaker 3: Same page here, Stuck, let me ask you, what do

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Speaker 3: you think about Purdue Fort Wayne, Because they're the team

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Speaker 3: more than likely that would face Oakland.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about them in a matchup with Oakland?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't really trust them, But let me see

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Speaker 2: what are their ods? I don't know their odds up here.

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Speaker 1: I gotta Purdue Fort Wayne. I got plus thirteen hundred

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Speaker 1: somewhere around there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Fort Wayne, I would need like twenty to one,

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Speaker 2: I think. I don't think it's out of the rum

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Speaker 2: of possibilities that they could beat Oakland. Looking at their

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Speaker 2: results this year. They did. They beat Oakland by twenty

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Speaker 2: one on the road. I remember that game in early December,

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Speaker 2: and they lost that home by eight. I don't trust there.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they can't rebound, and I don't trust their

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Speaker 2: interior defense if they have to face Right State, which

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Speaker 2: I think they would in the semis. So I think

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Speaker 2: I would need like twenty to one to play them,

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I think, but I don't think that they

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Speaker 2: don't have a shot against Oakland. But price is a

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Speaker 2: little too short for me. So you're picked. I'm picking

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Speaker 2: Right State cut down on net.

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Speaker 3: So you guys, I'm taking Milwaukee. I'm taking Milwaukee. I

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Speaker 3: think they get a pass. I think they're hot, and

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Speaker 3: I think they can get the right match up here

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Speaker 3: in the semis.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'm going with the winner of the four or

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Speaker 2: five game cutting down the nets for the sixth time

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Speaker 2: in eleven years, and I think Right State will probably

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Speaker 2: be like, I guess Northern Kentucky six ish point favorite

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Speaker 2: at home if you're and they just actually just played,

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Speaker 2: which is interesting. So Right State gets to see that

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Speaker 2: Northern Kentucky zone for a second straight game, and Right

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Speaker 2: State in true Right State fashion, I mean Warwick went

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Speaker 2: off for Northern Kentucky. He scored thirty nine, but Right

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Speaker 2: State beat them ninety four to eighty eight. Do you

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Speaker 2: want a summary? Right State Number two country in effective

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Speaker 2: field goal percentage including top ten and two point three

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Speaker 2: point percentage number three forty nine in effective field goal

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Speaker 2: percentage defense three forty one, three four two against the

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Speaker 2: threason two elite offense horrendous defense. It's finally March, so

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Speaker 2: on the horizon. Expect chaos as always, but let's move on.

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Speaker 2: Do you want to hit the NYC or the fun

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Speaker 2: Belt first?

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Speaker 1: Oh to my heart, stuck sunbl fun Belt?

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Speaker 2: Come on, all right, let's go to the fun Belt

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Speaker 2: where this is a format where they do reward the

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Speaker 2: top four seeds, which are app State, Arkansas State, James Madison,

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Speaker 2: and Troy All fourteen teams make it. The top ten

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Speaker 2: get a buye, the top four get a double buy.

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Speaker 2: All of these games are played in Pensacola, Florida, so

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Speaker 2: it's all on a neutral court. Kicks off Tuesday, March fifth,

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Speaker 2: Championship Monday, March eleventh. So if you're not one of

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Speaker 2: those top four seeds, and we could throw out Texas State, ODU,

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Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina, and Louisiana Monroe unless you object, none of

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Speaker 2: those teams are no, right, fine, yeah, yeah, we could

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Speaker 2: throw out the eleven through fourteen seeds. But if you're

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Speaker 2: in eleve through fourteen seeds, you gotta win on Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: and then you gotta win on Thursday just to get

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Speaker 2: to the weekend where you then have to win three

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Speaker 2: games in three days and all those two teams are

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Speaker 2: just way behind the top of a league, especially the

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Speaker 2: class of the conference, which is app State n JMU.

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Speaker 2: And if you're looking, I think the favorite is James Madison,

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Speaker 2: with app State just behind them. If the chalk holds,

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Speaker 2: app State would play Arkansas State in the semis, James

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Speaker 2: Madison would play Troy in the Semis. Interesting enough, James

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Speaker 2: Madison didn't play Troy during the regular season, were swept

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Speaker 2: by app State, and they beat Arkansas State in their

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Speaker 2: only meeting, so they had a pretty I think they're

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Speaker 2: the easiest strength of schedule in the entire league. Let

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Speaker 2: me start first with any potential long shot. So let's

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Speaker 2: first remove the four top seeds. Is there anyone and

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Speaker 2: we already removed the bottom four, So is there anyone?

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Speaker 2: Six through ten? Southern Miss, Georgia State. I think a

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Speaker 2: Southern Miss was healthy, they'd be much more intrue. But

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Speaker 2: they're not. Georgia State, Marshall, Louisiana, South Alabama, and Georgia Southern.

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Speaker 2: Anyone there tickle your fancy?

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Speaker 3: Well, here's my question on Southern Miss. Are we sure

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Speaker 3: that they're not healthy? Because I think they held out

335
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Speaker 3: players in the last game to get healthy they did

336
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Speaker 3: get Corbello back fully loaded.

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Speaker 1: They are dangerous.

338
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Speaker 3: They beat James Madison at home, Corbello came back played well.

339
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Speaker 3: They beat Troy at home by one without Corbello. This

340
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Speaker 3: is sort of my favorite long shot.

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Speaker 1: I get it stuck.

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00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,199
Speaker 3: To play Troy and JMO consecutive days would be doable.

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Speaker 3: But my theme here in the Sun Belt is to

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Speaker 3: fade James Madison. I don't trust James Madison. They're only

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Speaker 3: nine and ten against the Spreading Conference. They can get

346
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Speaker 3: very sloppy. They tend to play up to the competition

347
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Speaker 3: and play down. Now you're gonna look at their record,

348
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Speaker 3: it's not gonna matter. But I do think that Southern

349
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Speaker 3: Myss can cause problems here. They're gonna dismiss Texas State

350
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Speaker 3: or Old Dominion, and then they are playing a Troy team,

351
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Speaker 3: which you talked about. I like them and I like

352
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Speaker 3: Scott Cross, but there's a lot of variants there. Beating

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Speaker 3: Troy and James Madison back to back is rough. But

354
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Speaker 3: I do think the long shot here is Southern miss

355
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Speaker 3: because they could have Crowley back. Crowley may have been

356
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Speaker 3: held out his precaution. If he's back and Corbello's on

357
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 3: the floor. They're a tough matchup.

358
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Speaker 2: Yeah, uh yeah, Corbello did come back, but I believe

359
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 2: Crowley was dressed. He didn't play in the finale, but

360
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 2: he was dressed. But they they still miss their They're

361
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 2: gonna I think. I think it's hard to get concrete

362
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 2: information on these teams, but I think Donovan Ivory is

363
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 2: out for the season. He was important, and I mean

364
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 2: he was shooting forty three percent from three and for

365
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 2: Evan Miya, he was their second best player overall behind

366
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 2: Corbello in BPR. Yeah, Southern mess would have been an

367
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 2: intriguing team this year if they were fully healthy. But yeah,

368
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 2: they get Crowley back corbell they could be feisty. I'll

369
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 2: throw out this will be the longest shot I'll give,

370
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,200
Speaker 2: and I know this has almost no chance to win,

371
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 2: but it's a I think you can get like two

372
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty to one on this team.

373
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Speaker 1: St.

374
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Speaker 2: Georgia Southern. They suck, but this is an absolute lottery ticket.

375
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 2: They're playing their best best ball the season. They have

376
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 2: a bunch of freshmen who are playing better. They weren't

377
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,159
Speaker 2: fourteenth and hasle Metrics momentum, which kind of speaks to that.

378
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 2: How the team's playing. They have a deep bench, really

379
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 2: deep bench, So that matter. If you look at our

380
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 2: long shot, you need a deep bench because any of

381
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,400
Speaker 2: these long shots are gonna have to win a game

382
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 2: just to get to an opportunity. We have to win

383
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: three in three days. And this all comes down it

384
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 2: could they beat app State so high variants team, which

385
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: is what you want for these longer shots. They choot

386
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 2: a ton of threes, top twenty five nationally in three

387
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 2: point a tenth rate, and they make them at a

388
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 2: respectable rate. So yeah, I mean, look, they don't play

389
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,479
Speaker 2: any defense. They're not gonna get any stop. So if

390
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 2: they'd have to beat app State, who they lost to,

391
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 2: they lost to eighty four to seventy four, and then

392
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,959
Speaker 2: they lost eighty five eighty four in overtime, so they

393
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 2: could they beat up State. And if they beat app

394
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 2: State so they had a ton of threes, I mean

395
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 2: it's a two hundred and fifty to one shot to

396
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Speaker 2: win four games. And if look they play South Alabama,

397
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 2: they're gonna be a dog in that game. But I

398
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 2: think they have a shot. Tyron Moore is the type

399
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 2: of player who can just go nuclear for a week.

400
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 2: This is a guy who's you know. He scored thirty

401
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 2: two in the finale. He scored twenty seven, twenty eight,

402
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 2: thirty four, thirty thirty throughout this season. So if they

403
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: were to this is basically a ticket on Ken. If

404
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:16,920
Speaker 2: they win their first matchup, which is no gimme, but

405
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 2: they beat app State, hit a ton of threes, you

406
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 2: have a deep bench, and then you get a team

407
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 2: in Arkansas State presumably, who I actually think is intriguing,

408
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 2: as I think you could find them out there. Ten

409
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: to one would not go below ten to one. But

410
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 2: why do I like arc State high arrants team? They

411
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 2: are you can consider them. They have a double buy

412
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 2: and they're not as good as James Madison or App State.

413
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 2: They swept Troy for what it's worth. So if they

414
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 2: do get to the championship, get to Troy, I think

415
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 2: it's a good matchup. But they are a high Barrans

416
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: team because they shoot a ton of threes thirty second

417
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 2: nationally you can, and they shoot a respectable clip. You

418
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 2: can think of them under Brian Hodgins. You can think

419
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 2: of them as a mini Alabama Hotchkins. First year NATO's disciple.

420
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 2: Want to get to the rim, want to shoot threes.

421
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 2: That's all they do. If they're making their threes, they

422
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 2: can beat anyone in the league, and you'll need to

423
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 2: against app State. App State gives up nothing. And app

424
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 2: State's wonderfully coach under Dustin kerrents what job he's got

425
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 2: to get a high probile job soon. They don't allow

426
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 2: anything at the rim ninety nine percentile nationally first energy

427
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 2: depending at the rim. So what do you have to

428
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 2: do against it? You got to make threes. So you know,

429
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 2: they lost by twenty one in boone and they're only meeting,

430
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 2: but their high variant style gives them a chance on

431
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 2: the same On the flip side of that coin, if

432
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern were to somehow get to the Semis and

433
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 2: play Ark State again, high varrants team could work against

434
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: you if you're the heavy favorite in that game. We

435
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 2: just have a ton of threes, and then you have

436
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 2: to hope that you know, Georgia Southern's making an ARC

437
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 2: State isn't again. This is like complete couch change on

438
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern. If you even want to venture there, I

439
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 2: don't even know if I I'll throw ten bucks on it,

440
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: at least just because I'm touting this out now, But

441
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: Arkansas State I will have a real position on. I

442
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 2: think just given their high variant style makes them intriguing

443
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: as one of the four teams that does have a

444
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 2: double buy. What are your thoughts on anything else in

445
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 2: the fun belt?

446
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, if I hear that Ivory is playing, then I'm

447
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: going to have a good position on Southern Miss. But

448
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 3: I also wrote down the other one is ARC State,

449
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 3: So I agree with you. Only lost this since late

450
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 3: January home to JMU by four and at app State

451
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 3: last game. No shame in that they have one away

452
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 3: in home games they were swept by Louisiana. That's the

453
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: only concern, but that you mentioned it, Brian Hodgen comes

454
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 3: from natoates. They like to spread the floor, shoot threes.

455
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 3: Forty four percent of the shots in the Sunbell come

456
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 3: from deep.

457
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: That's first.

458
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 3: But in short, folks, Arkansas State shoots the three well,

459
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 3: doesn't turn it over. Solid inside the arc defense, solid

460
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 3: on the offensive. That is your profile there of a

461
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: dangerous team. If they beat app State, they can absolutely

462
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 3: win the whole thing. And in fact, I'll go so

463
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: far as to say stucks. I don't like James Madison.

464
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: If it's ARC State and app State, the winner of

465
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: that game is gonna win this whole thing.

466
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 2: Yep, I would agree with you. Yeah, the thing with Louisiana,

467
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 2: it is a good point that Louisiana, who's the likely

468
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 2: opponent for Arkansas State, did sweep them during the regular season.

469
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 2: And in those two games, Arkansas State four of twenty

470
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 2: two from three and six of twenty six. So while

471
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 2: we're talking ten of ten of fifty twenty percent from three.

472
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:47,719
Speaker 2: But under Bob Marlin, if the rage occagens are going

473
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 2: to take away to three and this year team shot

474
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 2: twenty seven point eight percent from three, number one in

475
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: the country, So maybe that is a problematic matchup. Now

476
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 2: the two point defense isn't any good. And I mean,

477
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 2: this is the team last year that you won this tournament,

478
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: but they really missed Jordan Brown. But yeah, maybe that's

479
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 2: a problematic matchup Parkansas State. But I just think given

480
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: their high variance style, I like them at ten to one,

481
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 2: which you could find out there wouldn't go anywhere below that.

482
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: And then Georgia Southern, I think is the team trending up.

483
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 2: I'll look potentially bet them catching some points against South

484
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 2: Alabama in the first round.

485
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 3: Yes, suck initial instinct would be the winner of Louisiana

486
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 3: ARC State. I'll be all over with the points against

487
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: app State in Pensacola Bay, the neutral site. And you

488
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 3: mentioned if Bob Marlon Louisiana beat South Alabama last year

489
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 3: three seven matchup and then made the finals as an

490
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 3: eight seed in twenty twenty two.

491
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 1: So he knows how to do well in this tournament.

492
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. Definitely scary to go up against. And yeah,

493
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 2: you would think that. I mean that the saving grace

494
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: for Louise For Arkansas State matches, they should dominate the

495
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 2: offensive glass and they don't really turn it over much.

496
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 2: And Louisiana can their top thirty in the country and

497
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 2: turnover rate forced and they're outside the top three hundred

498
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 2: in offensive rebounding rate allow. But yeah, I mean, if

499
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 2: Arkansas State's gonna go four of twenty eight from three,

500
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 2: tough to win. And Louisiana has been defending the primeter

501
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: well all year. Hey guys, stuck a year. Do you

502
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 2: ever wanted to try the best version of the Action

503
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,760
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504
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,359
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505
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,640
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506
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 2: access for just nine to ninety nine. For the first month,

507
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,600
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508
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,919
Speaker 2: prop projections, which are invaluable real time money percentages, and

509
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 2: our model's biggest edges and much more. All you have

510
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 2: to do is head over to Actionnetwork dot com slash Madness.

511
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: That's Actionnetwork dot com slasht Make sure you get there

512
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 2: before the deal expires. Cheers. All right, good stuff on

513
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 2: the fun belt. We have one final conference to get

514
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 2: to in today's preview, and that is the n C.

515
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 2: I want to talk about a format that does not

516
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: reward the top seed, which is Central Connecticut. I mean

517
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 2: Central Connecticut. They were I mean this, Let's look back

518
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: at some of their teams. Central Connecticut, which is the

519
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 2: one overall seed. Because Mary Mack lost at Sacred Heart

520
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 2: in the finale, Central Horrific could have had the outright

521
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 2: regular season title, but they lose. They end up tying,

522
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 2: they lose the tiebreaker because of their respective records against

523
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 2: Sacred Heart, and as a result, they get the two seed.

524
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 2: What does that mean? Not only do not get the

525
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 2: outright regular season title, but if you both get to

526
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: the Central Connecticut and Mary Mack get to the championship,

527
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 2: the game will we played on Central Connecticut's home court.

528
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 2: And I mean this Central Connecticut team just looking at

529
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 2: Ken Palm ratings over let's start in twos. Let's go

530
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 2: to the past ten years real five three, forty four,

531
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 2: three fifty one, three forty one, three ten three, twenty one,

532
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 2: three forty seven in twenty twenty three forty five and

533
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one three forty six and twenty twenty two,

534
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 2: three thirty nine, in twenty twenty three and all the

535
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 2: way up to fifty three. So Patrick Sellers done a

536
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 2: great job with this team this season to get them

537
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 2: the number one overall seed. Their only losses this season

538
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 2: in league play twice to Lemore. And it's worth noting

539
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:08,239
Speaker 2: that Lemoyne is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament, so

540
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 2: if they end up winning this then the runner up

541
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 2: would get the bid, which is just so stupid, but

542
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 2: lamoy did sweep Central Connecticut. If Leamoine beats Fairley Dickinson,

543
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 2: then they would face presumably Central Connecticut, assume they get

544
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 2: by Saint Francis in the Semis, which is interesting and

545
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 2: Central Connecticut's other loss came against Merymack, who they split with.

546
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: Looking at the odds to win this tournament, Central Connecticut

547
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 2: and Mary Mack the clear favorites as the one and

548
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 2: two seed. They're both sitting in a round plus one

549
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 2: point twenty eight teams made this bracket. There are no buys,

550
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: so everyone starts out on Wednesday. You play the semis

551
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,239
Speaker 2: on Saturday, and then you play the championship on Tuesday day.

552
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: You do, I should say I did say Lemoyne would

553
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 2: play Central Etiquette. That's I don't know that for sure.

554
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: They do recede, so that's if the Chalk Colts. They

555
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 2: recede after every round, and all these games are played

556
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 2: on campus sites, so reseed higher seed than hosts each

557
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 2: respective round. Mary Mack will start with Long Island and

558
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 2: then play the winner of Sacred Heart Wagner. I think

559
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: what's worth noting here is I think the best unit,

560
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 2: so the best single unit offense or defense is the

561
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: Merrymack Extended two three matchup zone. Their defense, I mean

562
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 2: they're super aggressive, they force turnovers at a top five

563
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: or eight nationally. It's just a stifling defense that's so

564
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: well schooled now as the two seed with a very

565
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 2: pretty flawed offense. I mean, their offense is ugly. Two

566
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: ways about it. I'm not in a rush to bet

567
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: them plus one twenty, and I'm also not in a

568
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 2: rush to bet Central Connecticut at plus one twenty. I

569
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 2: do have a long shot I'm Targeting'm curious to get

570
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 2: your thoughts on the NEC.

571
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, a couple things first, Merrimack and correct me if

572
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 3: I'm wrong. Stuck they had to sit out four years

573
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 3: so from the tournament. So last year they actually beat

574
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 3: Fairley Dickinson, but they couldn't get in the tournament. That's

575
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: how Fairly Dickinson got in and of course made their

576
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 3: incredible run. So you would think that Merrimack at home

577
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 3: against Sacred Heart, who was the preseason favorite and has

578
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 3: been really disappointing under Anthony Latina, I mean everything pointed

579
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 3: to this being in their year.

580
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: Early in the year, Stuck. I saw them play.

581
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 3: They did this five in five out stuff that Sacred

582
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 3: Heart likes to do. It just wasn't working nice one

583
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 3: at the end. But don't trust them whatsoever. Central Connecticut

584
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 3: I actually have been impressed with. I saw them against Fordham.

585
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 3: I saw them play Fordham there with their guards Gene

586
00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 3: Ross Jones Amos. Those guys can attack the basket there, athletic, relentless.

587
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 3: I agree, the numbers aren't high and it's a little

588
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 3: odd there. Lemoine has me certainly interested in the sec

589
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 3: given it the way they played. I'm curious for your

590
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 3: long shot here. But Merrimack seems so good. They are

591
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 3: great with the turnovers. They're terrible on the boards because

592
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 3: they play zone, of course, but just a real disappointing

593
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 3: loss to Sacred Heart, which makes me think, given the

594
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 3: way things happened last year, we're going to get a

595
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 3: refocused Merrimack in this tournament. I just don't know about

596
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 3: the odds there right now, So if I had, I'm

597
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 3: definitely not betting Sacred Heart. I'm off a Sacred Heart.

598
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 3: I'm not getting thrown off by that win. Don't trust

599
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 3: them too inconsistent, turn the ball over and stuck. Look

600
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: at Sacred Heart. I think they give up like eighty

601
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 3: eight points to fairly tickets in this year. I mean,

602
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 3: they are not good at all. So while I think

603
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 3: Merriman and Merrimack and Central Connecticut of the class, here

604
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 3: of the ancity, I'm curious for your long shot, because

605
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 3: I think they're ulnerable.

606
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sacred Heart ten hit threes, I mean shot thirty

607
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 2: nine percent in league play. But their zone offense, I

608
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 2: mean they did carve up Merrion Mack and scored eighty

609
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 2: nine in the finale. Their zone offense hasn't created out

610
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: well this season. But you know they can hit threes.

611
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: They are gonna have the best offense. But I just

612
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 2: I don't trust their their defense and they can't rebound.

613
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 2: And Lemoyne, yeah, I mean, I guess Lemoyne, you're playing

614
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: without like nothing to lose attitude here, can't go to

615
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 2: the tournament and they are high Aerians team and they

616
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: swept Central Connecticut, Leamoyne. What are they gonna do? Shoot

617
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: a ton of threes and they give up a ton

618
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: of threes top twenty in the nation and three point

619
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: a tenth rate bottom twenty in three point a tenth

620
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 2: rate allowed. So there's gonna be a lot of three

621
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 2: pointers in their games. So just shooting variants alone makes

622
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 2: them intriguing. In a format where you just got to

623
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 2: win three games in three days, I will throw out

624
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: and this is ugly, but you could find thirty one

625
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: out there. I haven't checked everywhere. So I got a

626
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 2: shot around a Wagner.

627
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 1: I thought, how to be Wagner. I'm like, who, where's

628
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: he going? It has to be Wagner. That's the only

629
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 1: they's go ahead.

630
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's definitely not Saint Francis's definitely not Long Island.

631
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 2: So here's my case for Wagner. Now there's a couple

632
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 2: of things. You know, they for what it's worth, they split.

633
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 2: The First of all, they have a horrendous home court advantage,

634
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 2: so they're gonna win three road games, but they don't

635
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 2: have a bench. But that doesn't matter. You gotta win Wednesday, Saturday,

636
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: and Tuesday. And they have one of the worst home

637
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 2: court advantages in the country. So like, I don't care

638
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 2: that the play on the road and they're in Staten Island.

639
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 2: It's not like they're getting raucous crowds at their games,

640
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: so whatever. And they don't know a bench, they gotta

641
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: go on the road. It doesn't hurt them in this format.

642
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 2: But my case for Wagner is, first of all, they

643
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 2: split with Merymath. They each won on each other's home court.

644
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 2: They lost to Central Connecticut twice, the top seed by

645
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 2: combined two points, and they're loss on the road came

646
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 2: in overtime, so they were right there in You know,

647
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 2: they could have easily won three or four against the

648
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 2: top two seeds, and that loss in overtime came without

649
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 2: their starting shooting guard. Jordan Brown is the only game

650
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 2: you missed this Julian Brown the only gave me miss

651
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: this year. But if they can upset Sacred Art, it

652
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 2: plays no defense, then they'd almost certainly faced Mary Mack.

653
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: And it's not the worst matchup, since what do you

654
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 2: need to do against marrymck. You have to take care

655
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: of the ball. Wagner does do that, and you have

656
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 2: to dominate on the glass, and that's Wagner's strength on

657
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 2: both ends of the floor. That's where Mary Mack's extremely vulnerable.

658
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 2: They could force you into a turnover. That's their best offense,

659
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 2: and they do it at the top five right nationally.

660
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 2: But Wagner doesn't turn the ball of second league play

661
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 2: in turnover rate second in league play, an offensive rebound

662
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 2: rate second league play, and defensive rebound rate. And they

663
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 2: know they're gonna they're gonna press, they extend their pressure.

664
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 2: So a lot of teams are in transition, but they're

665
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 2: elite in transition defense ninety eighth percent tile per synergy.

666
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 2: That's important because look at the top three seats Sacred Heart,

667
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 2: Central Connecticut, Merymack ninety sixth ninety first, ninety seventh percent

668
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 2: tile in transition to frequency with poor half court offenses.

669
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 2: So and the other thing that I'll add in here,

670
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 2: Wagner absolute snail. They want to grind the game down

671
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: to a halt. They're three hundred and sixtieth in adjusted tempo.

672
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: Only North Texas and Virginia are slower. What does that mean,

673
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:49,479
Speaker 2: increase variants, lower possessions, increase variants for an underdog. So yeah,

674
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,439
Speaker 2: in the league where like all of these teams are

675
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 2: pretty bad, Wagner can do some things that can give

676
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: the top seeds trouble, as they show during the regular

677
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: season split with Merymack almost beat Central Connecticut twice. But

678
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: they can redown the ball. They don't turn it over

679
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 2: another offense stinks. But yeah, I think Wagner thirty to

680
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: one is at least worth a peak.

681
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 3: I will tell you, I'll back you up on this.

682
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 3: Wagner's beating Sacred Heart. I truly believe that. So then

683
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 3: with the reseting, they would probably play Central Connecticut.

684
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: I will disagree with you.

685
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna beat Sacred Heart and then

686
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 3: Central Connecticut and then potential in Merrimack.

687
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:36,919
Speaker 1: That I think is too much.

688
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 3: But at the value you have the Matt they make

689
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 3: the championship, you're finding a way to make some money,

690
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 3: So I love it. I think they're beating Sacred Heart.

691
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 3: They matchup with Central Connecticut is perfect, like you said,

692
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 3: make some shots, slowly gamed down variants, and certainly the

693
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 3: top two teams are weak, so I'm with you on that.

694
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 3: I tend to lean that it's either gonna be Central

695
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: Connecticut or Merrimack winning this one, and I hate Sacred Heart.

696
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 1: Those are my thought.

697
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I you are right that if Wagner won, they

698
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 2: would face Central gone unless either Saint Francis or Long Value, right, Yeah,

699
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 2: which I can't see happening. But yeah, like I said,

700
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 2: they took Central Connecticut two overtime at Central Connecticut lost

701
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 2: by one and then lost by one in their other meeting,

702
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: and they're just going to grind the game down to

703
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 2: a halt ugly it up, so I think they'll least

704
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 2: have a chance. I will say, if I had to

705
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 2: choose between marymck and Central Connecticut. You mentioned Central Connecticut

706
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 2: with their guards rim attacking offense one of the I mean,

707
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 2: they just want to get to the rim with reckless

708
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: abandon but that's really tough against the Mary mac zone,

709
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 2: which is kind of an antidote to that. So if

710
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 2: I had to choose, if you're in a pool or something,

711
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 2: who would win. Who's gonna win this tournament? I know

712
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 2: they have the play at Central Connecticut State, but Mary

713
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 2: Mack who won it last year, who grew didn't get

714
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:09,760
Speaker 2: to the Big Dance. I think Mary Mack and that zone.

715
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 2: I think they're winning it under Joe Gallo. So that's

716
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 2: my pick to win it. How about you, who are

717
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 2: you picking the to win?

718
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 1: I think it's Mary Mack Wagner, and I think Marrion

719
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: Mack wins.

720
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 3: I think they were playing so well stuck and I

721
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: think the Sacred Heart was a bad loss. They did

722
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 3: close it late, they were down big, closed it to three.

723
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 3: I think Merri Mack gets in. They should have been

724
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 3: in last year, they weren't eligible eligible this year. I

725
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: think they get it done.

726
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: But I like them. Playing Wagner at the final is

727
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: a great goal.

728
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Warriors. It'd be nice to see the Warriors

729
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 2: in the dance. And I believe I think in like

730
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, Yeah, Mary Mack wasn't even allowed to play.

731
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 1: And they didn't playing the tournament conference tournament, yep.

732
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 2: In the conference tournament in twenty twenty two or twenty

733
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 2: twenty one, and in twenty twenty.

734
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 1: There wasn't a tournament because of COVID.

735
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 2: Right now, I think they actually played their Yeah, Robert

736
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 2: Morris won, they played it early, they got done. Okay,

737
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: Robert Morris won it. But in that in twenty twenty,

738
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 2: Marriymack won the regular season championship. They went fourteen and four,

739
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 2: and they weren't allowed to compete in the This is

740
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 2: a long time comment for the Warriors. I think they're

741
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 2: gonna get it done. But I try to pick a

742
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,320
Speaker 2: long shot. It's Wagoner just because of their style in

743
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 2: some of the things that they can do and ugly

744
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 2: ing up the game. All right, Oh, we didn't say

745
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 2: who you think is gonna cut down You gotta pick

746
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 2: a who's come down the nuts in the Sunbelt. I'm

747
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 2: gonna say app.

748
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 1: State, who's cutting down the nets in that?

749
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: Now I'm gonna I'll go with my I'll go with

750
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: Mark State back get hot from three red Wolves.

751
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: That's a tough you know.

752
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 3: I wish ARC State and app State were on different sides,

753
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 3: Dan oh Man.

754
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: I'll go with app State. Stuck.

755
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 3: It's a shame because I think I would love to

756
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 3: see the winner. The winner of that game I think

757
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 3: is gonna win it. I like Scott Cross Scott Cross covers,

758
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 3: but I just think they're limited and I'm not back

759
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 3: in JMU, So I'll go with app State. After an

760
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 3: overtime went over Arc State. They win in the championship.

761
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff covering the NEC, the Fun Belt,

762
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 2: and the Horizon. Cannot wait for these to tip. This

763
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 2: is part one of ten. As I mentioned earlier, Part

764
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 2: two should already be out, so make sure you check

765
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 2: that out for three more conference tournament previews. But thanks

766
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 2: to Mike Randall for joining me. Thanks to our producer

767
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 2: they depaying on the back end most sportingly, thanks to

768
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 2: all of you for tuning in. Good luck with all

769
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 2: of your wagers throughout the month. Any futures you place,

770
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 2: remember to shop around. We'll have tons of content on

771
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,640
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772
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 2: subscribe to our front one enemy. Make sure the review

773
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 2: ifi I star review that really helps out one of

774
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 2: these previews, I'll do a bunch of giveaways. So say whatever,

775
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 2: Lee a five star review, but hope he has helped

776
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 2: you prep for betting. Just fandom and no pools, and

777
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:21,320
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778
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:25,920
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779
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780
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