1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Disney reported worse than expected results 8 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: and the parks and resorts, one of their you know, 9 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: most dependable businesses, came in a little bit short. To 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,279 Speaker 1: get the latest on what's going on at Disney as 11 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: they make this big pivot from or to streaming. We 12 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: welcome our good friend Porter Bibby's, a managing partner at 13 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: Media Tech Capital Partenacy drains us here in our Bloomberg 14 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,160 Speaker 1: Interactive broker studio support a kind of an ugly quarter 15 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: last night, stocks trading off. What do you what's the 16 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 1: key takeaway for you? Well, the market hadn't digested the investment, 17 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: uh that that Disney has made not only the seventy 18 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: three billion dollars that they used to buy Fox, but 19 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: five billion for the part of Hulu that Comcast didn't known, 20 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: and they've been spending like drunken sailors getting Disney Plus 21 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: and ESPN Plus organized as streaming sites, and they will 22 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: they will continue to spend. UH about a half a 23 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: billion dollars will go into Disney Plus between now and 24 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: November twelve, when it actually launches. I'm struggling to understand 25 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: not the streaming side of this, but really the theme parks, 26 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: the idea that the Star Wars Uh Galaxy's Edge didn't 27 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: didn't fly, and what does this say about their ability 28 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: to predict audiences and revenues in this area. I think 29 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 1: what they didn't predicted Disney who was the crowds because 30 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: that Star Wars Uh New theme park was heavily, heavily promoted, 31 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: and it was over overbooked and jammed, and people just decided, 32 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: I'm not taking my kids to this thing that I 33 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: can't get into. It's it's an all day event and 34 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: it's really spectacular and it will smooth things out over over. 35 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: Of course, I want to make sure that I understand that. 36 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: In other words, you're saying that because it was so 37 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: popular and because people people didn't get tickets that it 38 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: sort of diminished demand. But do you think that they 39 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: didn't inaccurately predict the enthusiasm for it. That's that's exactly right. 40 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: And I think you're going to see with with the 41 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: new Star Wars film coming out at Christmas time again 42 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: a huge new surge of interest in that the theme 43 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: parks and and the merchandise are the biggest revenue and 44 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: profit drivers at Disney right now. They represent more than 45 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: of Disney's total revenue. Uh. They were down very marginally 46 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: a couple of points for this last quarter, but that's 47 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: because they had to invest in building the Star Wars park, 48 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: and they're suffering modestly in China and in Hong Kong 49 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: with the protests over there. But those are temporary setbacks 50 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 1: and Disney will will just go exploding at the end 51 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 1: of this year. With with the streaming networks that they're launching. 52 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 1: One of the things that nobody talks about ESPN is 53 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: best position with their live sports coverage and the hundreds 54 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 1: of millions billions that they've sunk into sports rights to 55 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: be the platform for online betting, which is coming. There 56 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: are nine states that have legalized online betting now. UH, 57 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: by the end of after the election. I think you're 58 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: gonna see twenty five or thirty States going because it's 59 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: found revenue for them, and it beats the pants off 60 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: of the state lotteries and the other other revenue generators 61 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: that States has. You go, You go to the Magic 62 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: Kingdom and just lay down a bet. You know, I 63 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: don't know what snow white exactly on the next game tonight, 64 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: so um so Porter. One of the big announcements I 65 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: thought from last night's results was the company kind of 66 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: announced a bundle streaming product. They're going to be putting 67 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: all this all their streaming products together for one price. 68 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: We can tell us about that. That was a blockbuster 69 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: move by Bob Bob iger Uh to counter the falloff 70 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: in in the share price that his modest earnings miss 71 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: Uh created twelve nine for Hulu, Disney Plus, and the 72 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: ESPN Plus. It's an unstoppable, untouchable idea, and the question 73 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: is how long can they keep it because they're not 74 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: going to make any profit with that kind of a price, 75 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 1: and there there's no advertising, no um dual revenue stream 76 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: that that any of those except Hulu has a modest 77 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: service that you can buy, pay pay less and get 78 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 1: some advertising. But even then they've cut the advertising way back, 79 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 1: So Disney shows down four point seven percent, a pretty 80 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: fierce response to the disappointing earnings. I'm just wondering, and 81 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 1: just to give you a sense, at one point that 82 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: was the biggest drop in the in the share since 83 00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen. Porter, I guess what is going 84 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: to uh sort of turn around the impression here because 85 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: it seems like the disappointment was in the revenues. But 86 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: you know with the package that they offered, if the 87 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: bundling services of a bunch of different things, that seems 88 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: really competitive. I mean, the whole Netflix killer story is 89 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: still on the table. So Disney is not a Netflix killer. 90 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: Netflix is going to be around, thank you very much. 91 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 1: The economic model is not sustainable, and someone at some 92 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: point in the game is going when the when the 93 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: share price comes down to a reasonable level, is going 94 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: to pick them up. There there's no shortage of of 95 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: content less buyers waiting right now. You have CBS, veh 96 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: Coom coming together today or tomorrow. Um for Eizen wanted 97 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: them a year ago. They're going to be first in 98 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 1: line knocking the doors down. People don't talk about it, 99 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: but Microsoft needs content. They have eighty million Xbox, Uh, 100 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 1: Internet connections and just games on the Xbox. But why 101 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: can't they show all of the content that movies and 102 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 1: television can create? Then then Apple, Oprah and Steven Spielberg 103 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: are not enough to carry Apple into the streaming wars 104 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: and do it, do it well, and do it successfully, 105 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: so there's there's no shortage of buyers. Um Disney, unfortunately 106 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: for the rest of them, has almost no cost of 107 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: content because they have such a spectacular archive and they're 108 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,919 Speaker 1: putting the igor Is announced that they're putting all of 109 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 1: their brand new movies, the The Avengers, the new Star 110 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: Wars movie this Christmas, the new Frozen. Uh, those are 111 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: blockbusters that cost them nothing to put on the streamings. 112 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: So before you mentioned the costs associated with streaming and 113 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: the company's disclose that won't break even. I guess until 114 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: fiscal still several years away. Do you think investors are 115 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 1: gonna be that patient? Well, and it's a building business. 116 00:06:54,400 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 1: We're seeing a cataclysmic transition of media from legacy media 117 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: cable and satellite to streaming and people who want to 118 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: get in. You have to realize Disney. Disney is up 119 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: twenty seven percent since January. They dropped four percent yesterday 120 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: and today, but there's still a lot of latitude there, 121 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: and investors realized that the assets that they have are 122 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: almost untouchable in the entertainment world. Certainly, if you have 123 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: a child, I'll just say that. But Portabb, thank you 124 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Portabb, Managing partner at 125 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: Media Tech Capital Partners. It is time to check in 126 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Opinion, and luckily for us, we've got a 127 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion contributor who is stellar when it comes to 128 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: all things in markets, but particularly fixed income, Jim Bianco, 129 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: President and founder of Bianco Research, coming to us from Chicago. Jim, 130 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: the real story today, this week, this year, for the 131 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: past ten years, has been bonds and bond yields heading 132 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: to record loads today around the world, near record lows 133 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: in the United States. When you look at the thirty 134 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: year yield, and I'm wondering, why is this now causing 135 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: concern rather than support for risk assets? You know, you're 136 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: right that we are very close to We're like five 137 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 1: basis points away from a record low now in the 138 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: thirty year. And I think that the concern is in 139 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: a unique situation that I don't remember ever seeing we've 140 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: had one rate cut, the market over the next year 141 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: is pricing in four more rate cuts, a total of 142 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: five rate cuts. I can't find a single economist or 143 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: a Federal Reserve official that thinks that the FED should 144 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: or the FED should cut rates five times between the 145 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: last one and four more coming. So the market itself 146 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: is an outlier. The market is seeing problems down the road. 147 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: It is trying to communicate that through the inverted yield curve, 148 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: through the plunge in yields, and it seems like the 149 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: economic community in the FETE is not listening, and it's 150 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: getting worried that since they're not listening, I have to 151 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: not price in an even worse outcome. And we're caught 152 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 1: in this spiral now with interest rates falling and falling 153 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 1: and falling. So, Jim, how surprised were you to wake 154 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: up this morning and see that we had rake cuts 155 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: coming out of New Zealand and Indian and Thailand. Surprised 156 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 1: and that all three of them were more than expected. 157 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: There was an expectation that there'd be a cut in India, 158 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 1: but it was larger than expected. There was not a 159 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: for Thailand, and they did cut as well in New 160 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: Zealand cut by fifty basis points, which is only done 161 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: during the global financial crisis in the christ Church earthquake, 162 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: So those were big deals, so it was very surprising. 163 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: Do you think that this is signaling that there is 164 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,559 Speaker 1: more of a real possibility of a near term recession 165 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: globally and in the US, because that certainly seems to 166 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: be the indication of yield curves around the world. Yeah, 167 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: I think so. Um, if you look at the data 168 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,719 Speaker 1: that is coming out of Europe, especially today one of 169 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 1: the big wirehouses UH describe some of the German data 170 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: that came out today if disastrous. It's been such a 171 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 1: bad number, and we it matters global growth is slowing down. 172 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: It matters for the US. We cannot ignore it, and 173 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: that is weighing on us as well too. It's obviously 174 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: weighing on the rest of the world, which is why 175 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: we're now approaching outside of the US half of the 176 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,719 Speaker 1: sovereign bonds in the world are now negative outside of 177 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: the US. So, Jim, you mentioned that the FED or 178 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: the markets are discounting four more rate cuts by the FED, 179 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: although the data UH may not support that. What do 180 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: you actually think the FED is going to do? They are, 181 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: in fact, you know, as they say, data dependent. Yeah, 182 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 1: I think they're going to cut rates in September. The 183 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: problem is is that they think that they're pretty sure 184 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: that they're going to cut by twenty five, and there's 185 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 1: some argument that maybe, you know, there might be something 186 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 1: that comes along that they don't cut. The market's pretty 187 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: sure they're gonna cut by fifty because it's now almost 188 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: at a chance the way it's priced in that there 189 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: will be a fifty basis point cut. So this will 190 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 1: be the game will play. The Fed will follow you, 191 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: we'll give you great cuts, but the market will be screaming, no, 192 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: you're gonna give us more than you think and faster 193 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: than you think. So we're all headed in the same direction. 194 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: It's just the speed at which the market thinks to 195 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: fet should go in which the Fed wants to go. 196 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: At Jim, here's what I'm really struggling with. I'm looking 197 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: at break even rates, sort of a gauge of inflation 198 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 1: over the next five to ten years, or at least 199 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: where people are pricing it in. It's come down, but 200 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: it's not at the lowest point since the financial crisis. 201 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: The way that bond that that that the yield curves 202 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: are and I'm struggling to understand what the implication here is. 203 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: Real yields just are going to continue to go lower 204 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 1: even if growth grinds along. I mean, is that the 205 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: main takeaway here? Yes, and there is a nuance we 206 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: need to put into those market measures of inflation expectation 207 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: to break even rates. If you go back over the 208 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 1: last several years and look at all of the times 209 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: that it was lower, you know, February of two thousand sixteen, 210 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 1: two thousand twelve and example, and you look at crude oil, 211 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 1: crude oil was down or more off of its high. 212 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: Crude oil is down, but nowhere near that right now. 213 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: So what's driving these break evens lower, these expectations of 214 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 1: lower inflation is not the energy market falling apart, but 215 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 1: a belief that non energy inflation, which is core inflation, 216 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: is coming down. That's what I think is really worrisome. 217 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: This is not two thousand and sixteen when the break 218 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: even s fell a lot more because crude I went 219 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: from a hundred dollars to twenty six dollars and just 220 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,839 Speaker 1: wiped out the energy part of the equation. This is 221 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 1: everything else that seems to be falling. Jim Bianco, thank 222 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: you so very much. Jim, as president and founder of 223 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 1: Bianco Research, is also a contributor to Blue or Opinion. 224 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: You can read more on this and other stories from 225 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion or on 226 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: the terminal by typing O P I n go. President 227 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:29,119 Speaker 1: Trump coming out yet again against the Federal Reserve, basically 228 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:33,079 Speaker 1: saying the problems in the US not China. We are 229 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: stronger than ever. Money is pouring into the US, while 230 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: China is losing companies by the thousands to other countries 231 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: and their currencies under siege. Our problem is a federal 232 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: Reserve that is too proud to admit their mistake of 233 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: acting too fast and tightening too much, and that I 234 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: was right. And it goes on. There is a three 235 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: tweet tweet storm joining us now to talk about what 236 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: this implies for markets and how it's being interpreted and frankly, 237 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 1: what is the FEDS conundrum is going forward? Tom Or, 238 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 1: like chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, I'm just wondering what 239 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:09,439 Speaker 1: your impression is of these tweets? Is Trump right? So? 240 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: I think there's certainly a consensus that the Federal Reserve 241 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: was too aggressive um at the end of two thousand 242 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: and eighteen, UM, and that that rate hike misjudged the 243 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: state of the economy, misjudged the mood in the markets, 244 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: and now they're having to undo some of the damage 245 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: which that did. UM. Where he's wrong, I think is 246 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: on the idea. Firstly, that politicians should be intervening in 247 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: monetary policy. We have independent central banks for a good reason. 248 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 1: The White House weighing in UM before breakfast, lunch, and 249 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: dinner doesn't make their job any easier. UM. Secondly, is 250 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: monetary policy effective against trade tariffs? Can you cut interest 251 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 1: rates to offset the drag caused by Trump's trade war? Um? 252 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: I think the answer to that probably no. Businesses see 253 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: lower rates as an incentive to invest, But when they're 254 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: so worried about supply chains being broken, about access to 255 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: markets being blocked, they're not going to make that investment. 256 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: So Tom, it's the market is pricing in, you know, 257 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 1: as much as four more rate cuts over the next 258 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: year or so. What is the market seeing that? Maybe? Um, 259 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 1: The Federal Reserve is not so. I think the markets 260 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 1: are forward looking. The Federal Reserve is looking at the 261 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: data and the data is telling us about the past. Um, 262 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: So the market is anticipating an escalating trade war, chilling 263 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: US exports, breaking US supply chains, hitting the US consumer 264 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: in the pocket book, and a federal reserve which is 265 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: being forced to respond to that. The risk, I think, 266 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: is that we have a spiral of higher tariffs and 267 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: lower rates, and in a year's time, the economy is 268 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 1: on the cusp of a very serious downturn, and the 269 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve has not enough firepower left to deal with it. 270 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: So it's not just a federal reserve. We've got central 271 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: banks around the world that are cutting rates more than 272 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: people have expected. We got the three rate cuts from 273 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: three three different central banks in Asia overnight, and I'm 274 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: just wondering, I mean, do you think that basically the 275 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: Fed is given a green light to central banks around 276 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: the world to go into an easing cycle, perhaps prematurely. 277 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 1: I think there's two things going on, Lisa. So the 278 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: first thing is that central banks are all responding to 279 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: the same threat. The trade war isn't just a problem 280 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: for China and the US. It's a problem for most 281 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: other major economies in the world, and that's why we're 282 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: seeing so many central banks responding to it. The second point, 283 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: and I think this is where your comment is is 284 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: completely on point, is the FED easing enables other central 285 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: banks to ease. If the U his lowering rates, other 286 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: central banks can and do lower rates without concerns about 287 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: currency weakness and capitaliite flows. And that's why we're seeing 288 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: Thailand and other emerging markets taking advantage of that opportunity. So, Tom, 289 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: you lived and worked in Beijing for many years, you 290 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: have a good sense of the economic situation there. What 291 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,959 Speaker 1: do you think the Chinese are really looking to achieve 292 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: from a trade deal, if anything, and what is kind 293 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: of the timing that you think that they might be under. 294 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: So I don't have a window into China's leadership compound 295 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 1: Jong Nan high Um, but my sense is that the 296 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: Chinese view on negotiations with Trump has changed in the 297 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,439 Speaker 1: last few months. UM. We had that move at the 298 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 1: beginning of the summer to hike tariffs from ten unexpected. 299 00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: We had that surprise threat of tariffs against mex Acho 300 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: after the US had negotiated noon after UM, and now 301 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: we have the teen per cent tariffs on three billion 302 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: dollars and the move to label China currency manipulator. I 303 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: think all of these things are convincing Beijing that actually 304 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: the chances of a wind wind deal with Trump on 305 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 1: trade are pretty low, and so I think what they're 306 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: doing is buckling down the hatches and trying to last 307 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: three to November twenty twenty, when they hope that they'll 308 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 1: have someone else in the White House who they find 309 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: it easier to talk to. Tom Can the tariffs and 310 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 1: what we've seen so far with the trade wars and 311 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 1: the global economy into recession. So global recession is a 312 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: big call. Um, Let's start with the US. So US 313 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: recession is a big call as well. Unemployment is a 314 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 1: fifty years Luxemburg. Luxembourg's much smaller, But unfortunately I haven't 315 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: flown over it recently. So per the economists rule that 316 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 1: you can't make a judgment on an economy you haven't 317 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 1: flown over, I can't make a judgment. Um. But let's 318 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: come back to the US. UM. Yes, the trade war 319 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: is a very serious threat to growth, not just because 320 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: of what the tariffs are doing, but because of the 321 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 1: chilling impact of uncertainty on business and consumer confidence and 322 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: financial markets. UM. At the same time, we have unemployment 323 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: at a fifty year low UH and wage growth running 324 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,679 Speaker 1: at more than three. The consumer is the main driver 325 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: of you of the U S economy. UM, So yes, 326 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 1: we're concerned. Yes, we're looking at UM some indications of 327 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: some weakness coming into the labor market, but we'd want 328 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: to see more signs of the labor market crumbling before 329 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: we made a big call like that, Tom, or like, 330 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: thank you very much time as a chief economist for 331 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics, joining us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive 332 00:19:54,760 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: Broker studio. Well, what I thought was some very interesting 333 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 1: news coming out of FedEx. The company announced that the 334 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 1: ground delivery contract with Amazon won't be renewed when it 335 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: expires at the end of this month, the company said 336 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,199 Speaker 1: in a statement. To get the latest on this and 337 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 1: what it means for FedEx and the transportation industry, we 338 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: welcome Satista Jendle, president of s J Consulting, and Thomas Black, 339 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: transportation reporter for a Bloomberg UH. Tom's let's start with 340 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 1: you kind of just give us the background here on 341 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 1: what FedEx is doing with one of the biggest strippers 342 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 1: in the world. They're pulling back. We knew this was coming. 343 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: They announced in June that they were no longer going 344 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 1: to do the next day air service for Amazon. So, uh, 345 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: this is an incremental step in that and they're pulling 346 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,959 Speaker 1: back on on the ground and they it's a signal 347 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,119 Speaker 1: that they see Amazon more as a competitor as it 348 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: builds out its network, and they're gonna try to scoop 349 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 1: up other customers for e commerce as it grows. Situation. 350 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: President of j Consulting, come in in here, because I'm 351 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 1: wondering how much this bet is a good one on 352 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: FedEx's part. How big of an infrastructure does Amazon dot 353 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 1: Com have right now? And it is fed X going 354 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: to be in a better position than Amazon as a 355 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 1: result of this move, you know, this is Uh. The 356 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: termination of the contract first is really an academic because 357 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,879 Speaker 1: based on a lot of data we have, fed X 358 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 1: was not handling any packages because Amazon has cut them 359 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: off completely. They give them zero packages, So it is academic. 360 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 1: The only relevance of terminating that contract is that during 361 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: peak time, Amazon will not be able to rely on 362 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 1: fed X for any volume. But Amazon has built its 363 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 1: own network of last mile delivery to such a point 364 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: that today they are delivering over four million packages a 365 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 1: day with their own drivers, and they're continuing to ramp 366 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 1: that up. So and they've got the post aft that 367 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 1: they've got ups and they've got up the private small 368 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: cave here to deliver for them. And this is no 369 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: headache for Amazon. They will not miss a heartbeat not 370 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 1: having fed X. Instead, fed X is going to have 371 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,360 Speaker 1: to work hard to replace that capacity and that volume 372 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: with others. That doesn't come easy. Yeah, Thomas, I want 373 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 1: to follow up on that point. It seems like when 374 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 1: I think about Amazon, I would think that would just 375 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 1: be a huge, huge customer for fed X, and you know, 376 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: I think about a fixed cost system like uh, you 377 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: know FedEx has how will they make up that lost volume? Well, 378 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: they talked about the volume with Amazon being about one 379 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 1: point three of their total sales, which if you do 380 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 1: just to back it of the envelope, calculations around nine million. 381 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 1: So it seems a lot. But it's a company that 382 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: does almost seventy billion in sales per year, so it 383 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: can handle the hit um ups on. On the other 384 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: it probably does more business with Amazon and that partnership 385 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 1: is continuing, so it's going to be interesting to see 386 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: how that plays out over time. If this is more 387 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 1: of a cosmetic type of move on the part of 388 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,199 Speaker 1: fed X or a pr kind of I don't want 389 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: to call it a stunt, but something to sort of 390 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 1: make a statement more than anything else. What are they 391 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: hoping happens from it? I think this is a wait 392 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: for them to embrace themselves with Walmart and get Walmart 393 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 1: to realize that they are, uh not working with Walmart's 394 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 1: biggest competitor, and that to have Walmart make FedEx their 395 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 1: primary career and give them more business than and to 396 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: what whatever they're giving to ups to FedEx other than that, 397 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 1: If I'm a shipper, it doesn't make a difference to 398 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,199 Speaker 1: me that I would rather do business with fed X. 399 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 1: If they're not doing business with Amazon that never happens, 400 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,919 Speaker 1: then this is a more negative for FedEx than for 401 00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 1: Amazon in my view. So, Thomas, I know that, uh, 402 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: the fed X is kind of saying it's in a 403 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: transition year and their forecasting earnings to decline. What's really problem, 404 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: what's really creating the problems there at FedEx? Well, they 405 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: have some problems in their European business. They acquired a 406 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,880 Speaker 1: company called T n T Express and that was back 407 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: in May of when they close that deal and they 408 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 1: still are grappling with the integration of that company. That's 409 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: that's been a a drag on on fed X and UH. 410 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: They're also seeing the international business weekend a little bit 411 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,360 Speaker 1: with some of the trade spat that's going on. So 412 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: those those are two main things that are weighing on. 413 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: Who is Walmart relying on now, I mean in terms 414 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: of who I mean who who is who is uh? 415 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 1: Who is FedEx going to sort of take business away from? 416 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: See that again, Well, you said that Walmart could be 417 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 1: the biggest winner from the fed X or basically that 418 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: FedEx is trying to win over Walmart's business. I'm wondering 419 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 1: who Aalmart is doing shipping business with right now. They 420 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: are doing a big amount of business with FedEx, but 421 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 1: they're also giving to UPS and this is effort by 422 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,360 Speaker 1: them to try and have some of that business going 423 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 1: to others, including upsp devoted to FedEx. Thank you so 424 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: much for being with us at Gendel, President of SJA Consulting. 425 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:23,640 Speaker 1: Thomas Black, transportation reporter for Bloomberg News. Thanks for listening 426 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe 427 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts. Or whatever podcast 428 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,719 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at 429 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa A. Bram Woy. It's I'm on 430 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,879 Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Bramwoit's one before the podcast. You can 431 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio