1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Joe, do you like 2 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: Persian food? 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh yeah, definitely, Yeah. 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: I make I'm very proud of this, if I say 5 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: so myself, A mean gourmet SAPSI. I actually don't know 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: if I'm pronouncing it wrong, but supposedly it's the Iranian 7 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: national dish, and it's a sort of like beef stew 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: with spinach and a bunch of different herbs in it, 9 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: so it's really green, and then with kidney beans. It's delicious. 10 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: And the thing I like about it is you can 11 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: make it and then store it and freeze it and 12 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 1: it actually gets better over the next week or so. 13 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 2: This guy is my idea for a restaurant, which is 14 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 2: just like make food and then put it in the 15 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 2: fridge for overnight and then cervic cold, because I think 16 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 2: like everything there, every dish is better like after a 17 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,279 Speaker 2: night in the fridge somehow, like all the flavors come 18 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: out as like, why don't we just make this to 19 00:00:55,640 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: the default eating I did a dead lae. 20 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: I'm both the most popular trader and most successful trader 21 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: at Citadel. That is going viral. H barges. 22 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 2: This is an after school special except. 23 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 1: I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going 24 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 1: forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve. 25 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:15,559 Speaker 3: In the US. Black goals. 26 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: These are the important question. Is that robots taking. 27 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 3: Over the world. 28 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 2: No, I think that like in a couple of years, 29 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 2: the AI will do a really good job of making 30 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 2: the Odd Lots podcast. One day that person will have 31 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:28,199 Speaker 2: the mandate of heaven. 32 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,559 Speaker 1: How do I get more popular and successful? 33 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 2: We do have. 34 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to lots More where we catch up with 35 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: friends about what's going on right now, because. 36 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 2: Even when The Odd Lots is over, there's always lots more. 37 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: And we really do have the perfect guest. So I'm 38 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: a big fan of Iranian food. I always wanted to 39 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: go to Iran and I actually try it, yes, and it 40 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: makes me sad that I haven't been able to do it. 41 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: And with you know, recent events, terrible events in Iran. 42 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: We've had anti Islamic Republic protests that have reportedly left 43 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: thousands of people dead. I'm not going to say the 44 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: specific estimate because it's changing all the time, and also 45 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: there's not that much transparency at the moment because the 46 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: government has shut down the entire internet. But it's just sad. 47 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 2: Look, I know very little about Iran. I also feel 48 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 2: like in my professional career there are multiple rounds of 49 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: this mm hmm, big protests, etc. Is this the moment 50 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 2: regime change? And to your point, which you say, like, 51 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,119 Speaker 2: there is very little that I trust when I see 52 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 2: it reported. Yeah, I am extremely skeptical. Oh, tonight was 53 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 2: the biggest set of protests we've had in years. There's 54 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 2: never been a protest. Look at which city this is. 55 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 2: I'm sure there are well informed people talking about this. 56 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 2: I don't have the heuristics, So no, generally I don't 57 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 2: know who is well informed, what is actually signal versus 58 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 2: what is noised. But obviously yet another sort of extraordinary 59 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 2: development unfolding here in a mote. 60 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 1: What have you been hearing? 61 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 3: So I agree that it's difficult really to tell what 62 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 3: are the actual facts. For sure, there's been a lot 63 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,119 Speaker 3: of deaths and it's horrible that it's tragic, and it's 64 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 3: definitely thousands of deaths. But at the same time, you 65 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 3: know there's complete blackout. What works right now is the 66 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 3: actually outgoing landline calls, but with limited time. So, for example, 67 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 3: my one of my analysts, who is actually in London. 68 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 3: At the moment, he's able to speak to his parents 69 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 3: when they call him, and then the call gets interrupted 70 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 3: quite quickly, but at least he can hear from them. 71 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 3: We weren't actually sure for quite some time whether the 72 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 3: stock market was working or not because of the blackout, 73 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 3: because it was not possible to even to read any 74 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 3: news from the official news agencies in Iran. So everything 75 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 3: was down, including from what I've read, including even like 76 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 3: the internal domestic like an internet network in Iran that 77 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 3: is that is very controlled. This was also down. Even 78 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 3: ATM stopped working for a moment, I think, just like 79 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 3: a one day brief moment. Cash transfers for working bank transfers. 80 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 3: Apparently the local you know uber equivalent called snap was 81 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 3: working all the time. However, GPS was not working for police, 82 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 3: it was difficult to locate the driver and so on. 83 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: So exactly what you said, it's difficult to understand exactly 84 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 3: what is going on. 85 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: So this is of course much of Voutel. He is 86 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: the CEO of Amtalon Capital, which is a fund that 87 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: specializes in Iranian equities, and there aren't that many of 88 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 1: those around. 89 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 2: I don't even know if there's a second one yeah. 90 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: So we enjoy talking to him, and he has really 91 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:43,359 Speaker 1: good insights into what is actually happening on the ground 92 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: in Iran. The first question I should ask directly is 93 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 1: is your team okay? Are they safe and well? The 94 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: people that you actually have in the country. 95 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: Thank you for asking about that, Tracy. Have we have 96 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 3: a local team in Tehran, part of which is actually 97 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 3: in London at the moment. Now. Analysts who are in 98 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: Tehrank who were in Iran, they left their round a 99 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 3: few days ago when the protests were getting more intense 100 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 3: too smaller cities to their hometowns, So the last time 101 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 3: we've heard from them was a couple of days ago. 102 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 3: At that time they were in a safe place. So 103 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 3: I believe they're all fine. 104 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 2: I mean, just your intuition. Let's actually set aside the 105 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: question of like, is this a moment where the regime 106 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,799 Speaker 2: would get toppled or something like that. Let's tell it, 107 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 2: does this feel either quantitatively or qualitatively different from various 108 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 2: episodes over the last two decades in which suddenly the 109 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: Internet is looking at fairly blurry videos of Iranian protesters 110 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 2: and asking does this feel different somehow? 111 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 3: Yes, it definitely does. Okay, So First of all, obviously 112 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 3: looking at the history it teaches you not to get 113 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 3: excited or to I don't know, hopeful for any meaningful changes. However, 114 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 3: it does feel different and maybe maybe two things could 115 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 3: be interesting here. First of all, as you said Joe 116 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 3: at the beginning, it's not the first protest, it's you know, 117 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: another protest over the years. And if you look at 118 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 3: comparable situations, for example, Poland police is always close to 119 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 3: my heart. I'm Polish originally, and Poland when we were 120 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 3: trying to get rid of the Soviet Union, it took 121 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 3: nine years and every year there was a massive protest. 122 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 3: This protest you know, died and then you know, with 123 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 3: very brutal reaction from the government. Then the next year 124 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 3: there was another protest. In the meantime there was martial 125 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 3: law with you know, military on the streets and so on. 126 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:41,359 Speaker 3: But finally many things came together and there was a 127 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 3: tipping point at which everything collapsed, although it didn't collapse 128 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 3: actually was it was a negotiated transition to a different regime. 129 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 3: So you know, the establishment got an off rount to 130 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 3: move on and it was a peaceful, negotiated transition. Similar 131 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 3: in South Africa, based on what I know. I mean 132 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 3: it was you know, happening in the eighties and then 133 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 3: in the nineth these they were actual changes in Iran. 134 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 3: The situation is different because for many reasons, demographics have changed. 135 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 3: So now you have I believe, around ninety three million people, 136 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 3: out of which fifty million is between you know, fifteen 137 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 3: and forty nine years old, like the active part of 138 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 3: the population, and there are many more young people who 139 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 3: are educated, who have you know, access to internet, have 140 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 3: their own aspirations and they don't believe they can achieve 141 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 3: those aspirations in the current environment. And they also look 142 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 3: at their parents and they think that they just wasted 143 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 3: the whole generation, you know, waiting and doing nothing. So 144 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 3: this makes them more angry and also like more decisive 145 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 3: and confrontational. That's why I think it's you know, the 146 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 3: protests were so intense and so widespread. Another reason another 147 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 3: thing that's changed is like you remember a few years 148 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 3: ago three twenty twenty two, there were twenty three there 149 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 3: were protests around social freedoms after an I random girl, 150 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 3: Mazamini died and this was driven by basically by social 151 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 3: freedoms and mainly involved young people. Right now is driven 152 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 3: by economic difficulties. And this is this touches every every 153 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 3: single household in Iran. 154 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to ask you about precisely this because 155 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: the I don't want to say the cause of the 156 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: recent unrest, but certainly one of the sparks seems to 157 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: have been a further collapse in the currency, even higher inflation. 158 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 1: And wasn't there something about a bank as well, a 159 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: bank that was going bust supposedly with ties to the regime. 160 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: How much did financial stress play into the current round 161 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 1: of civil unrest, Well. 162 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 3: One hundred percent, this was the main cost. Look, the 163 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 3: protests started on the Grand Bazaar in Tehrans. So these bazaris, 164 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 3: I mean people who operate the bazaars, many of them 165 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 3: run like multimillion dollar revenue companies. There are actually it's 166 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 3: like this massive shopping made with tens of thousands of 167 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 3: you know, smaller or bigger traders there, and they need 168 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 3: stability to just you know, do business, right, so protesting 169 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 3: revolution like if this is the last thing they would 170 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 3: think about. But they are in a situation you know 171 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 3: where many of them are importers. To import, you need 172 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 3: to be able to obtain a hard currency to just 173 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 3: pay your supplier from via town China. Whoever, it's impossible 174 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 3: to obtain to access heart currency or there's not enough 175 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:35,479 Speaker 3: of it, and that's obviously because of sanctions. Because of sanctions, 176 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 3: exports of Iran just went down. Iran is exporting oil 177 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 3: only to China, so Chinese dictating all the terms, including 178 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 3: big discounts in the price that they're paying, but also 179 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 3: the terms of the payment. You know, the China is 180 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 3: paying A big part of their payments are in yu 181 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 3: one and they and they arrive in bank accounts in 182 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 3: some Chinese bands, so we run, you know, the only 183 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 3: thing that Iran can do with it is to buy 184 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 3: some Chinese goods. And what you run needs is to 185 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 3: pay for essential goods like you know, some food products 186 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 3: or some medical products that they need to import it 187 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 3: at any cost. And once they allocate all their hard 188 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 3: currency reserves to those essential products, there is not much 189 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 3: left for other businesses. So this is one thing that 190 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 3: is difficult to run a business. When you cannot obtain currency. 191 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 3: You have you know, inflation running wild. But on the 192 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 3: other hand, your consumers are losing their purchasing power at 193 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 3: an extraordinary pace, so no one is buying. Basically, right, 194 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 3: you have to spend on you know, eggs, milk and 195 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 3: bread probably you know, more than ten percent of your 196 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 3: average monthly salary. So it looks really difficult on the 197 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 3: economic side. 198 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: Can I ask very quickly, do you have a sense 199 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: of what the current exchangery actually is, because you know, 200 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: this is one of the few currencies in the world 201 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: that we cannot look up on a Bloomberg terminal. 202 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's around one point five million real per one dollar, 203 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 3: which means it went down around n twenty seven ninety 204 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 3: eight percent over the last decade, and around fifty almost 205 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 3: fifty percent since before the war with Israel last year, 206 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 3: so over the last seven months. So it's really it's 207 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,080 Speaker 3: really falling fast. Oh and one more thing you asked 208 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 3: about the bank. Yes, actually there was a bank collapsing 209 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 3: in Iran just a few months ago. I mean, they 210 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:25,839 Speaker 3: formally recognized that it should be nationalized. And it's extraordinary 211 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 3: because the size of the collapse, it was so big 212 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 3: that it actually affected the budget of the country, the 213 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 3: country budget for this year, so they had to reduce 214 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 3: subsidies and just change you know, the expenditures of the 215 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 3: budget to make room for the amount that they had 216 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 3: to think. It was like five billion dollars that they 217 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 3: had to put into this bank so that it doesn't 218 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 3: you know, collapse. It was basically, and it's another it's 219 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 3: another example that you know makes people angry obviously because 220 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 3: it's it's it was a huge example of corruption. So 221 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 3: you know, there was a local, well connected entrepreneur who 222 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 3: was running a few construction companies and it wasn't the 223 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 3: case that you know, he called a few banks and 224 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 3: f for some preferential loans. Now he set up a 225 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,719 Speaker 3: bank offered the highest interest rates on the market. So 226 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:15,079 Speaker 3: many people just put their deposits into this bank, and 227 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 3: then he was using those deposits to make loans to 228 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 3: his own companies. I think it was like a majority 229 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,839 Speaker 3: of the loans where to his own companies. He built 230 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 3: the biggest shopping mall in the in the region, which 231 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 3: was you know, a crazy idea from the beginning, and 232 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 3: many things like this, right, so another example of phonism 233 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 3: and corruption. 234 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:34,719 Speaker 1: This is the shopping mall that's like as big as 235 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: the Pentagoners, yeah. 236 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 2: Twice as big. I read the journal article, twice as 237 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: big as the Pentagon. This luxury shopping mall in Iran 238 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 2: suffering from massive hyperinflation and all sorts. But I have 239 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 2: to say, starting your own bank to fund your construction 240 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 2: company a kind of a brilliant idea. B. This is 241 00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 2: why bank supervision and various things is important. Actually, this 242 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 2: it's surreal to me, the reality of here is a 243 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 2: country that right now, is it the fact of information 244 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 2: black hole you mentioned, we don't know if the stock 245 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: market is trading. Here's a country on Earth and right 246 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 2: now where we are in New York or where you 247 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 2: are in London, we can't even answer the simple question 248 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 2: is the stock market functioning right now? 249 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 3: Yeah? Exactly. So all the stories that I that I 250 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,559 Speaker 3: hear is that the way people were able to communicate 251 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 3: is because someone had access to a starlink corpor reading 252 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 3: in Iran, or someone's friend was working at a hospital 253 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 3: and hospital had some access to either the White Internet 254 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 3: or some of these local networks. So that's why I also, 255 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 3: it's not possible for the country to keep the black 256 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 3: out at this scale and intensity for too not because 257 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,679 Speaker 3: you know, the whole economy stops right Actually, the administration 258 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 3: of the countries is not possible right without without internet. 259 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 3: So it's it was it was sharp intense, but it 260 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 3: has to be short term because otherwise, you know, the 261 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 3: country will just stop. 262 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: What happens to your portfolio in this particular scenario, your investments. 263 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 3: So the stock market seems to have been stable over 264 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 3: the last week. I don't see the exact numbers yet 265 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 3: in terms of, for example, liquidity, and I and I 266 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 3: suspect that you know, there was not much going on 267 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 3: because I'm not sure if even local investors had a 268 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 3: chance to were able to put orders online. Right maybe 269 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 3: maybe it was all school, you know, calling your broker 270 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 3: or going to your broker. So it was stable, so 271 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 3: nothing Actually actually it went up by four percent and 272 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 3: the currency was stable to the currency is easier to 273 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 3: manipulate by by the central bank using some reserves, especially 274 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 3: when when there's low liquidity. So I think, what would 275 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 3: be more interesting in the next few weeks. So, for example, 276 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 3: what happened last year after the war when there was 277 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 3: a war between Iran and Israel in June, the stock 278 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 3: market was shut down for around two weeks. After it reopened, 279 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 3: the prices didn't change much, but then local investors, mainly 280 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 3: retail investors, this retail driven market started selling because they 281 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 3: didn't have access to their funds, so they started selling 282 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 3: at any price just to get money out. And there 283 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:35,359 Speaker 3: was a massive selling pressure that lasted from July until September. 284 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 3: And when the buyer saw a selling pressure like this, 285 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 3: so every day you can see the queue of unfilled 286 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 3: orders building up that will go to the next day 287 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 3: and the next day and the next day. So people 288 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 3: just stopped buying as well, obviously, so the market went 289 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 3: down like irrespective of you know which saws wood quality, 290 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 3: would valuation whatever, just a massive sell off which lasted 291 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 3: two three months, and then it rebounded. So it went 292 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 3: down like in dollar terms from let's say index of 293 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 3: I don't know, three hundred sixty to two hundred and thirty. Yes, 294 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 3: I'm if I'm looking at this correctly, so let's say 295 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 3: thirty six percent in dollar terms in just two and 296 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 3: a half months. The selling pressure then was exhausted. All 297 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 3: the sending, all the sales were absorbed. Valuations went down 298 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 3: to the one of the I think very close levels 299 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 3: to the like all time lows in the history of 300 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 3: the of the Iran and stock market, which is around 301 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 3: twenty years old. So you know, it's always cheap, right, 302 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 3: but this time it went you know below three times 303 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 3: net turnings and median media for the market, right, so 304 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 3: you could probably find stocks, you know, two times earnings. 305 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 3: Then it rebounded, but it's still around, you know, like 306 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 3: three and a half times earnings. So valuations are very 307 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 3: much still driven by war. So everything is priced for war, right, 308 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 3: So that's that's the sentiment hasn't really recovered after the 309 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 3: last war, and now we had protests, so everything in 310 00:16:58,200 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 3: Iran is price for war basically. 311 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 2: You know, in the news, obviously we hear I think 312 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 2: we get a better grasp and again I plead a 313 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 2: lot of ignorance. That's not something I have a lot 314 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,479 Speaker 2: of familiarity with. But what the protesters want and you 315 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: hear about young people and wanting more freedoms, can you 316 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 2: give a sort of I don't know, political economy breakdown 317 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 2: of like you know, you don't hear about the people 318 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 2: who obviously don't want regime change generally speaking, they we 319 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 2: don't know much about them or who they are, who 320 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 2: are the sort of different factions socioeconomically that and how 321 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 2: they allocate to either side sort of I guess a 322 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 2: class understanding of the tensions. 323 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 3: So there's a big group of young people and young 324 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 3: people want freedom and opportunities and like fair rules in 325 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 3: the economy. Basically there are older people, adults in larger 326 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 3: cities which are more liberal. Definitely run they run is 327 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 3: a big city, it's like twelve million people altogether, and 328 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 3: their run. Life in the run looks different to most 329 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 3: other cities in Iran, with you know, women no longer 330 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 3: wearing hg J apps. It's much more open, it's much 331 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 3: more liberal. But also there's a big group of people 332 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 3: who are very very religious and they support the government 333 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 3: that is also there is a religious government. So the 334 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,479 Speaker 3: concept of Islamic Republic is very close close to their 335 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 3: part and they support it and as part of their 336 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 3: religion and part of their traditions. So in terms of 337 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 3: you know, how they observe religious holidays, you know, going 338 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 3: to mosque, dressing in a certain way and so on. 339 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 3: And now how does this split, I would say that 340 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:50,200 Speaker 3: probably between ten and thirty percent is the religious part. 341 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 3: Ten like very religious and just listening to the to 342 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 3: the prayer and you know, whatever political advice comes from 343 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 3: the mosque. And so one of the afard of the 344 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:06,199 Speaker 3: society just being religious and supporting the Islamic Republic as 345 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 3: a religious state. Just a small note that it's an 346 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 3: Islamic republic, but very tolerant of other religions. I mean, 347 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 3: all the churches work normally there, from Jewish to Christian 348 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 3: to the Austrian. You know, everyone is doing his own 349 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 3: thing in terms of religion in Iran and it's okay. 350 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,120 Speaker 3: And the rest are people who want a modern, open 351 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 3: state with the young, including the young people who want 352 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 3: it fast basically and want to be able to follow 353 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 3: their dreams and aspirations. So that would be the breakdown. 354 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: So I should just say we're recording this on January fifteenth. 355 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: The headlines are coming pretty fast nowadays, so who knows 356 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: what will happen by the time we publish this episode 357 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 1: in just twenty four hours or so. But the latest 358 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:54,679 Speaker 1: headline is that tensions seem to have eased a little 359 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 1: bit with the US because the Iranian government said they're 360 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: not going to kill any more people, told Trump they're 361 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 1: not going to execute more people. How should we interpret that? 362 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: Is this all over or do you expect some unrest 363 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: to continue? 364 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 3: Well, it's hard to predict. It's very unpredictable. I mean, 365 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 3: unrest is difficult to predict. The dynamics around the unrest. 366 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 3: Then you know, the government of Iran is difficult to predict. 367 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 3: But you know the government of the US is difficult 368 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 3: to predict because you know right now, yesterday today, yesterday 369 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 3: you had news, you had news that President Trump was 370 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 3: saying that, yes he got information that you know, killing stopped. 371 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 3: So this is what he was, you know, what he 372 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 3: wanted to achieve. So it looks better. The day before 373 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 3: everyone thought that, you know, they are getting ready to 374 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 3: strike Iran. So I think those things can change in 375 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 3: twenty four hours. So it's just impossible to predict. The 376 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 3: only thing I would I would say is that because 377 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 3: it does feel different this time, the scale of the 378 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 3: protests and the reasons of the protest, and also the 379 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 3: government just comes and you know, their way out of 380 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 3: the problem. It's the financial situation is really tough. But 381 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 3: some changes are likely. I'm not saying that in the 382 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 3: next few days or weeks. Maybe it will take months, 383 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 3: but I think it's just moving this direction. So there 384 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 3: are some changes that are like here, and many scenarios 385 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 3: are possible. I mean, look at Venezuela. There was no 386 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 3: rigion change there, right, I mean, there was a like again, 387 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 3: negotiated solution with you know, Maduro taken out and the 388 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 3: rest of the government and establishment just same place, but 389 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,640 Speaker 3: they have to cooperate, right, So there's probably more than 390 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 3: one scenario possible for the future. 391 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,679 Speaker 1: What a world we live in where civil unrest is 392 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: becoming a major investment theme. Thank you Macha for coming 393 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: on lots More. Really appreciate another update from you. 394 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 3: Thank you for having me. 395 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 2: Lots More is produced by Carmen Rodriguez and dash Ol Bennett, 396 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 2: with help from Moses Onam and kel Brooks. 397 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: Our sound engineer is Blake Maples. 398 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 2: Please rate, review, and subscribe to Odd, Lots and lots 399 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 2: More on your favorite podcast platforms. 400 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,880 Speaker 1: And remember that Bloomberg subscribers can listen to all our 401 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 1: podcasts ad free by connecting through Apple Podcasts. Thanks for listening.