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Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Bring

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Speaker 1: up that data screen again for Andrew Sheets of Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 1: This is incredible. First of all, this should be read

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Speaker 1: on the screen. Those are lower yields. Look at that

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Speaker 1: move nine basis points down to point four six Andrew Sheets.

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Speaker 1: These are ginormous moves. And I refuse to believe this

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Speaker 1: is just because of fiscal noise. It is like a

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Speaker 1: global yield compression, isn't it. Yeah, it's It's a pretty

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Speaker 1: substantial move. So look, I think there are two things

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Speaker 1: that are going on here. I think the first is

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Speaker 1: I think specifically what we're seeing in Italy and maybe

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Speaker 1: a little bit more broader in Europe is kind of

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Speaker 1: an expression of that old saying that happiness sequel's outcome

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Speaker 1: minus expectation. And I think expectations towards the Eurozone, towards

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Speaker 1: Italy among investors were pretty low here. So I think

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Speaker 1: the fact that you have a compromise at least temporarily

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Speaker 1: take some of that pressure off. I think is kind

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Speaker 1: of colliding with the fact that investors were pretty cautiously

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Speaker 1: positioned in Italy, were pretty bearish, and thus that makes

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Speaker 1: these these larger moves easier. But look, I think what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing more broadly in yields, and I think especially

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Speaker 1: in the US, is the bond market I think correctly

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Speaker 1: adjusting that growth is going to be slower in developed

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Speaker 1: markets next year, and I think the US will be

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Speaker 1: the main kind of bond bullish story next year. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that that story will extend to Europe, given

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Speaker 1: where our starting valuation is, but I do think, you know,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's more likely we'll see US yields

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Speaker 1: lower next year than higher. Yeah, And that leads me

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Speaker 1: to ask about your thesis that we're going to see

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Speaker 1: convergence between US and European yields. You see US yields

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Speaker 1: move lower, but what of Europe Do those yields move

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Speaker 1: higher as well, especially given the markets are not pricing

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Speaker 1: a height from the c B until last time I checked.

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Speaker 1: So I do think that's something that could really surprise

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Speaker 1: the market. Right, So, I think the market's looking at

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Speaker 1: weak European data, it's looking at where inflation is. It's saying, look,

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Speaker 1: the e c B has been on hold for forever,

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Speaker 1: they will remain on hold forever, and yet they're underestimating

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Speaker 1: a couple of things. I think they're underestimating the growth

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Speaker 1: in Europe could actually be pretty similar to this year

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Speaker 1: one six, one seven, which is well above potential. You're

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Speaker 1: seeing rising wage growth in Europe, which is right driving

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Speaker 1: I think real core inflationary pressure, and write the ECB

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Speaker 1: is targeting, you know, add or below two percent inflation.

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Speaker 1: We're not that far away from that, and rates are

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Speaker 1: at minus forty, so there's a lot of room I

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Speaker 1: think for the e c B to raise rates before

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Speaker 1: it's anywhere close to restrictive. I also think what people

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Speaker 1: might be underestimating, and we could see this a bit

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Speaker 1: in Japan as well, is that moving rates off of

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Speaker 1: negative levels. Maybe it's not tightening, or maybe it's not

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Speaker 1: tightening policy in the way. What do you mean by that?

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Speaker 1: That's a really important statement because if we think what

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Speaker 1: negative rates have done, they've made it very difficult for

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Speaker 1: the financial system to function, the banking profitability very challenged,

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Speaker 1: and that's probably made banks less likely to lend, less

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Speaker 1: likely to be out in the economy. And so I

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Speaker 1: think you could see this idea that kind of the

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Speaker 1: first hikes off of negative kind of getting from minus

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Speaker 1: forty zero isn't really tightening in the traditional sense. And

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Speaker 1: I think that could I think the market and that

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Speaker 1: could change, and that would raise race market expectation. Well,

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Speaker 1: you just heard there from Mr Sheets, Folks is a

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Speaker 1: massive zeitgeist for two thousand nineteen. I gotta go Matthew here.

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Speaker 1: It's so important. Andrew, I refused to believe Yacolm Fells

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Speaker 1: on yesterday you used to work with you. I refuse

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Speaker 1: to believe that the move from negative interest rates to

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Speaker 1: positive interest rates is an assured stability and as linear.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, I just mathematically don't buy that

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Speaker 1: what happens when the German two year find comes up

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Speaker 1: for air. So I think that that would be a

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Speaker 1: good thing. So, right, I agree with you. Right, it's

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Speaker 1: it's it's a major shift in policy, it's a major

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Speaker 1: shift in where we've been. But I think it would

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Speaker 1: have I think too kind of very tangible positive elements.

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Speaker 1: The first is it would directly improve banking profitability, and

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Speaker 1: the exactly banks are, the more stable they are. And

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Speaker 1: I think secondly it would be a signaling mechanism. Right

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Speaker 1: if you're running a European business and you see, you know,

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Speaker 1: German two year rates where they are, German tenure rates

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Speaker 1: where they are, it's not giving you a particularly optimistic

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Speaker 1: signal about the long term. And I think there can

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Speaker 1: be a feedback mechanism. Oil Front and Center brand fifty

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Speaker 1: is John mentioned West Texas Intermediate up cents fIF you

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Speaker 1: two and read to send with us with energy aspects

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Speaker 1: and rita wonderful to have you with us. And I

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Speaker 1: guess the microeconomics soil and all the nuance. I just

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Speaker 1: want to talk about the blunt instrument of technology to

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Speaker 1: smart people like you actually understand what all this petroleum

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Speaker 1: technology will be in next year or the year after.

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Speaker 1: You actually understand the physics of it and the engineering

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Speaker 1: of it. I think the engineering side is trickier partly

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Speaker 1: because you know, you really need to be in a

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Speaker 1: Slumberger or a bigger hues proper service company to understand

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Speaker 1: what's going on. But to your point, if people haven't

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Speaker 1: been paying attention to how fast technology has been evolving

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Speaker 1: in the sector. I think that's a mistake because it's

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Speaker 1: not just about shale because that's obviously the most talked

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Speaker 1: about bit in hydraulic tracking and and so on, but literally,

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Speaker 1: like digital um that the revolution we've seen in every

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Speaker 1: sphere of upstream, offshore, on shore and even the deep

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Speaker 1: deep worter that has been really, really fantastic. And I

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Speaker 1: don't think I mean that's going to continue evolving and

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Speaker 1: by the way, lower the prices. Goal the industry is

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Speaker 1: forced to innovate, and one of the ways to do

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Speaker 1: that is through technology. And John, this is so important.

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Speaker 1: When you look at the oil viscosity index L minus

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Speaker 1: you over L minus age and you look at the

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Speaker 1: kinematic viscosity of petroleum. It's serious. I'm not even going

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Speaker 1: to pretend I know what you just said. I studied

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Speaker 1: it years ago. I forgot it years ago. And Mariada Senator,

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Speaker 1: like you have to live with this stuff because I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: That is Jeff Curry mentioned yesterday. Can you put that

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Speaker 1: in English? From there? Here's what's every This is really

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Speaker 1: important question, John brings up. Everybody got wrong the amplitude

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Speaker 1: of the technology effect over the last twenty years. Right, Yes,

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Speaker 1: I think so I mean, to be honest, it's not

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Speaker 1: just like I was saying not to share. Look at

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Speaker 1: the demand side. Just how quickly you are seeing cars

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Speaker 1: have become more efficient, the penetration of electric cars. Agreed,

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Speaker 1: It is also much to do with government policy and

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Speaker 1: forcing that into people's lives. But you can't take away

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Speaker 1: from the fact that, if anything, if you look at

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Speaker 1: how where the tech industry is versus the oil and

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Speaker 1: gas industry, the oil and gas industry is in its

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Speaker 1: infancy when it comes to technological kind of innovation. So

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Speaker 1: as to speak, if we can even get ten percent

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Speaker 1: of what the tech industry has achieved into this industry,

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Speaker 1: we would be I mean, the efficiency levels would be

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Speaker 1: through the roof. Can we get to the price action?

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Speaker 1: Can I do that? I just I just wondered if

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Speaker 1: you wanted to consume you you're you have a new

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Speaker 1: show on development for next year. I shouldn't say this,

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Speaker 1: but Joan, what is it? Look look for two nine,

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Speaker 1: Joan Ferrell, the real barrel. That would be really really

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Speaker 1: cool barrel. I'm sure that would get a lot of

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Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of listeners and watches. Tom King,

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Speaker 1: thank you, am Rita. Just to talk about a price

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Speaker 1: action of the here and now. Are we worried about

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Speaker 1: demand now and not just supply? And to what degree

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Speaker 1: I think? You know, initially the sell off was about

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Speaker 1: the waivers that Trump had given out. Then obviously open

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Speaker 1: Head increased productions, so that I would say the first

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Speaker 1: and fifteen dollars was about that, and we would expected

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Speaker 1: prices to stabilize there. Then that morphed into much wider

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Speaker 1: kind of economic concerns, demand concerns. Really it is about

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Speaker 1: the China US trade war. And you know, I wasn't

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Speaker 1: trying to not that long ago. And my biggest takeaway

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Speaker 1: there was that it wasn't that current demand is weak

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Speaker 1: per se. But every single consumer indicator is telling you

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Speaker 1: that we are uncertainty around this is really dragging confidence down.

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Speaker 1: And we had companies telling us that any users in

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Speaker 1: petrochemical companies saying that the stocking. So we've got a

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Speaker 1: genuine growth scare at the moment. Well, sir, do you

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Speaker 1: think that materializes? Um, it's so you mean anuine group gap. No,

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Speaker 1: it's a gross gate materializes into a genuine growth issue

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Speaker 1: right now? Is the do you think that materialize into

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Speaker 1: something real? This becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, right, because

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Speaker 1: if you're spending less, you're talking from your infantry, then

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Speaker 1: the profitability of the company, so you're buying your washing

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Speaker 1: machine from this less. This is the problem I think

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Speaker 1: the fan has later they can sit here and say

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Speaker 1: the US economy right now, but it's the perception of

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Speaker 1: where we're going and whether perception becomes Merita and West

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Speaker 1: Texas Intermedia. We're two point seven standard deviations down forty

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Speaker 1: six dollars fifty two cets. Do you have in your

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Speaker 1: head at chip point where you know the markets move,

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Speaker 1: as John was mentioning, supply demand move, is it like

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Speaker 1: is it thirty eight dollars a barrel? Is it forty?

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Speaker 1: Is it? You know what? What's the number? And a

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Speaker 1: barrel of oil? Where we get real dynamics? To be honest,

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Speaker 1: we are that because a lot of levels. Because remember

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Speaker 1: in the US, in a lot of basins they're wellhead

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Speaker 1: prices trade at a significant discount to w T I.

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Speaker 1: We are in shot and economics in a lot of places.

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Speaker 1: But also I do think the last few days move

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Speaker 1: hasn't been to do with fundamental fundamentals. Writer right now

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Speaker 1: on that bad But yes, if the perception is right,

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Speaker 1: and if we are to enter a recession then then yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean we're going to talk about much, much lower

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Speaker 1: oil prices. But it has probably gone a bit too far.

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Speaker 1: But right here we are absolutely curtailing and we will

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Speaker 1: or rather we will be curtailing US production if we

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Speaker 1: stay here and good morning to Canada, West Canada, Western

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Speaker 1: Canada under twenty a barrel and it jumps up on

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Speaker 1: some social announcement in that up to forty a barrel

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Speaker 1: and it's just rolled over in the last three days, John,

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Speaker 1: I'm reading as it's been great a cat show. Thanks

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Speaker 1: Chief for an analysts. We are honored to have with

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Speaker 1: us a former governor of the Reserve System, Randall Krosner,

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Speaker 1: of course, prodigious in the sense of mathematics, model building, dynamics.

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Speaker 1: And I guess I could say, Randy, what it means

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Speaker 1: for the little guy? You have been forefront on community

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Speaker 1: banks and small banks, talk about all this big picture stuff.

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Speaker 1: You've had the courage, Professor Krasner, to talk about the

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Speaker 1: little guy in our financial system. How is the little

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Speaker 1: guy doing if there isn't a real rate out there?

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Speaker 1: How distorted is small business and community banking in this

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Speaker 1: odd low real rate, zero real rate environment. Well, certainly,

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Speaker 1: the those rates effects effect all and have a particular

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Speaker 1: impact on those who have to focus on the banking

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Speaker 1: system rather than the markets more generally because they are

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Speaker 1: very much tied to borrowing from UH the the small

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Speaker 1: and medium sized banks UM. The fit interest rate policy

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Speaker 1: of course effects both small and large institutions UM. But

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Speaker 1: I think the the lower rate policy has been helpful

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Speaker 1: to small and medium sized business to be able to

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Speaker 1: lower their cost of capital to try to get them

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Speaker 1: in the recovery mode. And I think that has happened

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Speaker 1: over time. Obviously, the shocks of two thousand and eight

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Speaker 1: two thousand nine we're quite deeply felt, and particularly deeply

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Speaker 1: felt by small and medium sized business. But I think

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Speaker 1: they've started to get onto a much more solid footing

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Speaker 1: and I've actually been creating a lot of jobs over

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Speaker 1: the last few years. I'll go with the optimism in

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Speaker 1: the US. Could you comment please, And I don't know

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Speaker 1: what you've done with Bank of International Settlements in Europe

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Speaker 1: or frankly with the European central banks, but in in

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Speaker 1: Europe they enjoy negative interest rates. How does a small

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Speaker 1: enterprise survive in the negative interst rate world that benefits

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Speaker 1: big companies, benefits Deutsche Bank, on and on and on.

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Speaker 1: How do the community banks of Europe survive in that

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Speaker 1: artificial environment? Yeah, and joy is not necessarily a word

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Speaker 1: I would associate with negative interest rates in bank. So uh,

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Speaker 1: it's it's very tough, um, particularly tough for UH some

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Speaker 1: of the smaller institutions because uh, they have the challenge

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Speaker 1: of trying to maintain deposits in which means it's very

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Speaker 1: difficult to make people pay to give you UM their

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Speaker 1: deposits exactly. But they only earn a negative rate of

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Speaker 1: return from the reserves that they have with the with

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Speaker 1: the central Bank, so it can be a pretty difficult,

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Speaker 1: pretty difficult for them. So there's a two minute precursor

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Speaker 1: folks who have gone a crossing, which gets us to

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Speaker 1: Vice Chairman Clarida, a public official now and he has

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Speaker 1: the same prodigious mathematic abilities that you have. Do you

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Speaker 1: just assume stubb ability as we try to bring interest

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Speaker 1: rates higher? Obviously a public official or even a former

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Speaker 1: chairman like Bernanke is going to tell me that we

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Speaker 1: will have stability, But do you really buy the certitude

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Speaker 1: that we can have stability as we raise rates up. Well, certainly,

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Speaker 1: there's no certainty on when you're in uncharted territory. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think in the US, since we just went to

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Speaker 1: roughly zero and have been able to get out relatively smoothly,

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Speaker 1: I think god optimism that even when you're in a

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Speaker 1: negative territory been trying to move smoothly out. We've never

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Speaker 1: done it before, so of course we can't say that

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Speaker 1: with certainty. But um, I've been impressed that the money

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Speaker 1: markets have been able to function as well as they

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Speaker 1: have in a negative interest rate environment in Switzerland and

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Speaker 1: the Eurozone, in Japan relative to my expectations. I want

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Speaker 1: to address now the drunken miller warsh essay is everyone

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Speaker 1: knows I do not do snark. I don't want any

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Speaker 1: comments on you know Worsh as a governor as you,

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Speaker 1: but I am going to say Governor Krosner that Kevin

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Speaker 1: Worsh came in is okay, who's this financial guide? He

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Speaker 1: doesn't have the brains at Randy Krosner, you know, dotted

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Speaker 1: out and out and ah, and I would suggest all

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Speaker 1: Governor Krossner said that Governor Worsh got very high marks

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Speaker 1: during the crisis for translating a financial system dialogue between

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Speaker 1: the FED and the PhDs and the bankers up in

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Speaker 1: New York. With that said, that was a shocking essay

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Speaker 1: suggesting this is a FED that needs to pause. Push

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Speaker 1: against that that belief. Why do we need to advance

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Speaker 1: rate increases if so many of our listeners have the

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Speaker 1: concerns of Mr Druck and Miller and Mr Walsh. I

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Speaker 1: think UM that that essay reflects UH some market participants view,

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Speaker 1: and it certainly reflects because uses some people sitting around

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Speaker 1: the FOM seat table, they federal at the marketing community tables,

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Speaker 1: because I don't think everyone is on exactly the same page.

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Speaker 1: Now you may not get any descents because they may

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Speaker 1: not be the voting members right now, but we're getting

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Speaker 1: closer to um what some people call the neutral rate,

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Speaker 1: which is where what the rate would be if there

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Speaker 1: were no fit where would the markets be so as

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Speaker 1: you know, as a set trying to be expansionary or contractionary,

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Speaker 1: if it's not being other those it would be yet

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Speaker 1: would be neutral. UM. As we've said in earlier, we

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Speaker 1: have to be somewhat humbled because the standard errors or

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Speaker 1: wide m our traditional models are not necessarily giving us

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Speaker 1: very precise point estimates of where those those rates are.

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Speaker 1: And so I think that's that's part of the part

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Speaker 1: of the debate. You see how Governor Krasner got that

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Speaker 1: in folks who went to point estimate, which is mappiness

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Speaker 1: on single guests. The reality, as Governor Crossners you lived

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Speaker 1: at the FED, there are no point estimates. There's a

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Speaker 1: gu estimate probability out into the future. How squishy is

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Speaker 1: it right now for this FED out the next two, three, four,

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Speaker 1: five meetings, they don't have a point estimate. Let me

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Speaker 1: look it up here right now, folks, I can do

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Speaker 1: that on the Bloomberg Professional Service. You can do this

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Speaker 1: with your Bloomberg terminals at Chicago. I mean out to

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Speaker 1: the June thirteenth of the August one meeting. Excuse me,

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Speaker 1: that was this year. That that that that nineteen. There

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Speaker 1: we go out to the June nineteenth of the July

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Speaker 1: thirty one meeting. There are no point estimates, are there. Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll be getting some of those points when me and

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Speaker 1: the dot plots. So but as you'll see, there's it's

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Speaker 1: not just one one dot. There's a variety of views

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Speaker 1: that people have and uh, and so that's what they're

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Speaker 1: debating now, UM, they're getting into sort of neutral or

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Speaker 1: balanced territory, and the question is how far are they

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Speaker 1: into that? What are the prospects for the U s

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Speaker 1: economy going forward? We've been growing quite rapidly this this

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Speaker 1: past year. I think most people say that we're not

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Speaker 1: going to grow quite as rapidly next year. And the

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Speaker 1: question is what are the head winds as rates go up?

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Speaker 1: How much of a head wind will that be for

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Speaker 1: the housing market? As rates go up? Will that cause

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Speaker 1: tumult in the international markets and then have feedback effects

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Speaker 1: on the on the US. People put different weights on

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Speaker 1: those uh, those different uh, different headwinds, and that's exactly

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Speaker 1: what they're going debating. And I think that's why this

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Speaker 1: is likely to be a devilish tightening. That is that

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Speaker 1: I think they will convey that they're not on the

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Speaker 1: same path that they have been over this past year.

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Speaker 1: They're more likely to take a little bit more time

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Speaker 1: to assess for the economy is what the impact of

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Speaker 1: the fiscal reforms from last year are. Are they really

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Speaker 1: ones that are going to increase investment and increase productivity

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Speaker 1: growth or really kind of one off sorts of things.

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Speaker 1: Those are the things that would be debating. They need

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Speaker 1: a little bit more time, and I think it's perfectly

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Speaker 1: reasonable that they are pause even if they don't use

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Speaker 1: these words. That's Krossner are so skilled folks. He goes

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Speaker 1: on with that long answer because he doesn't want the

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Speaker 1: next question. Very quickly here, very quickly, Professor Krasner, would

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Speaker 1: you get rid of the dots? I would I would

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Speaker 1: try to h yeah, I would try to figure out

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Speaker 1: a way to convey some of that information without the dots.

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Speaker 1: I think having some sort of some sort of information

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Speaker 1: about where the fit seas interest rates going is valuable.

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Speaker 1: I think they've kind of gotten stuck a little bit

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Speaker 1: in the dots that probably convey less information than they

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Speaker 1: did when they introduced them. A gracious answer that did

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Speaker 1: not need to be answered. He is a former governor

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Speaker 1: of the Fellow Reserve System. A wonderful moment with Randall

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Speaker 1: Krosner of Chicago, Greg Valier with us with Horizon Investments,

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Speaker 1: linking in this economy, linking it into this Washington as well. Greg,

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Speaker 1: the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. Let me start and

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Speaker 1: get out of the way what we observed yesterday with

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Speaker 1: General Flynn, is this different because this was and is

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Speaker 1: a three star general. I think so, Tom, and I

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Speaker 1: would maybe make at observation as to what's going on

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Speaker 1: right now. He's got a president who's flailing. He cannot

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Speaker 1: get control. I think even his supporters would agree with that.

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Speaker 1: He can't get on top of these scandals. He's looking

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Speaker 1: increasingly erratic. And I would make the point that one

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Speaker 1: of the reasons why the market has been weak, not

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Speaker 1: the only one, one of the reasons there is a

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Speaker 1: growing concern about his instability. Okay, that's that's an exceptionally

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Speaker 1: loaded statement. I'm not sure I want to go there.

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Speaker 1: But Greg, you are a Washington watcher. Full disclosure, folks.

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Speaker 1: I never put the uniform on. I never was in

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Speaker 1: a trench or the proverbial sense of that. But we

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Speaker 1: all perceive whether it was Mr North or Mr Flynn

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Speaker 1: and any others. You want to talk about your dip,

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Speaker 1: Mr Um the former chief of staff, who who who

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Speaker 1: left him as chief of staff two days ago? Kelly Kelly,

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Speaker 1: Mr Van Okay, fine, Mr Kelly. These guys put on

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Speaker 1: a uniform. To you, Greg, VALI is that different? I

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Speaker 1: think it's different for Donald Trump. He has an attraction

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Speaker 1: obviously to two military leaders. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: I think we're going down a path where he's used

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Speaker 1: military leaders in the Justice Department has basically appendages of

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Speaker 1: him servants with his Okay, I want to go Greg

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Speaker 1: to a theme and as my chart of the year,

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Speaker 1: which is a twin deficit. You are expert at Washington

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Speaker 1: and the deficits, the CBO and all that. Does anyone

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Speaker 1: down there have any sense that if we get a

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Speaker 1: solid economy, as clarative puts it, or a tepid economy,

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Speaker 1: what that does to the deficit? Does anybody have a clue? Well,

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Speaker 1: if the economy stays solid, and I think it will

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Speaker 1: even with that climate, even with full employment, we're going

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Speaker 1: to be around a trillion dollars a year, maybe higher

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Speaker 1: for the next few years. At some point, maybe late spring,

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Speaker 1: when we fight over the death ceiling, Washington is going

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Speaker 1: to take notice. What I just wanted to find, a

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars is one thousand million? Yeah, and just think, so,

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Speaker 1: we've got unemployment at three seven, a decent economy, and

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Speaker 1: we still have a deficit of a trillion. If the

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Speaker 1: economy weakens, we could be talking about getting closer to

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Speaker 1: two trillion. Greg value just speak if you can about

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Speaker 1: the acting chief of staff at least when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the new year, Mick mulveney. What kind of person

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Speaker 1: is he? Because he has a Tea party background, he's

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Speaker 1: well liked, he's a policy walk. He could last for

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Speaker 1: a while. But let's face it, guys, that General Kelly

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Speaker 1: couldn't last. I can't see mc mulvaney lasting. And his title,

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Speaker 1: lest I forget, is acting chief of Staff, not Chief

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Speaker 1: of Staff. So what do you expect from the new

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Speaker 1: Trump White House? Well, I think when he goes down

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Speaker 1: to our lago for two and a half weeks, there's

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Speaker 1: going to be more tweeting. He hates a vacuum, so

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Speaker 1: there's going to be a daily avalanche of tweets, you know,

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Speaker 1: more speculation about what happens next year. There's a big

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Speaker 1: difference though, between this year and next, and that is

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Speaker 1: the Democrats in the House will have a say in everything.

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Speaker 1: What will be their first issue, well, several It won't

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Speaker 1: make it, but let's be candid. They're aiming for the campaign,

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Speaker 1: so they want to advertise their gender, so minimum wage,

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Speaker 1: global warming. They'll talk about infrastructure, but I think the

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Speaker 1: main thing will be subpoenas and hearings of all things

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Speaker 1: Trump leading towards possibly a move in the spring to impeach. Really,

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Speaker 1: you think it's gonna be that kind of drama? Oh? Absolutely? Now,

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Speaker 1: now I have to add that chances of impeachment, my

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Speaker 1: chances of conviction in the Senate is maybe I've made

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Speaker 1: it very clear to our staff, Mr Valier, that I

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Speaker 1: really want to avoid, as you mentioned earlier, talking about

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Speaker 1: any anybody's stability, etcetera, etcetera. But your comments do bring

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Speaker 1: up where Vice President Pence fits into all this. Give

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Speaker 1: us a Pence update. Well, he's a loyal soldier. Some

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Speaker 1: cynics would say a sinkaphan, but uh, he certainly hasn't

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Speaker 1: straight from the reservation. And if if Trump were to

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Speaker 1: be in real trouble, and again, I expect him to

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Speaker 1: be acquitted in the Senate if it gets to that level.

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Speaker 1: But if it does get to that level, there will

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Speaker 1: be more focused on Pence. I'm told by my lobbyist

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Speaker 1: friends that Pence has kept a very active rolodex. He

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Speaker 1: knows where all the contributions are if he needs to

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Speaker 1: tap them in a hurry. Well, you mentioned contributions, and

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Speaker 1: I just want to circle back if I can on

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Speaker 1: Mick mulvaney, because wasn't it Mick Volvany who said that

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Speaker 1: he would only meet with people who had with lobbyists

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Speaker 1: who had donated money to the campaign. He regretted saying that,

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Speaker 1: and he walked it back right away. But yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: what happened. Well, there are a lot of people in

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Speaker 1: this town who meet with people who contribute. I don't

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Speaker 1: think you can fix votes, but you can certainly get

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Speaker 1: access with contributions. One final question, are we going to

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Speaker 1: have a Mueller Friday? I think it's too late. I

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Speaker 1: think we're too close to the holidays. I think Muller

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Speaker 1: probably drags on into late winter before he brings all

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Speaker 1: the indictments. That's us a guest though, very good Greg Ll.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for the update as well. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen

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Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform

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Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio