WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Dan Weston, Tennis Betting Masterclass 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.719 Check it down, man, now down man. It's the Beating 0:00:11.720 --> 0:00:14.960 of the Book podcast. Kill Alex stand there. Hope you well, 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:18.280 hope you're staying safe. Hope you're enjoying your life despite 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:21.480 the strings in surreal time. This is and really hope 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:23.160 you're enjoying all the content here on the Beating of 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:28.760 the Book podcast during the pandemic today. Tennis not for everybody. 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:31.040 But if you don't like it, if you don't like 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:33.720 betting it, you may not like money. Uh. This is 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:36.400 Dan Weston for those who are listeners to a numbers 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.080 game at V City's very familiar. I haven't had him 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:42.960 on the podcast before, but I often say, uh, this 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:46.440 is probably the guy with the best record over the 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:48.560 longest period of time in any sport on my shows. 0:00:49.440 --> 0:00:52.160 It's about as simple as that. And what better time 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:57.800 to use to go through a masterclass series betting tennis 0:00:58.000 --> 0:00:59.880 one oh one really not just the one on one, 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:06.200 the masterclass series Dan Weston his general approach to handicapping tennis, 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:09.080 where you can get the data for it, and what 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:11.720 are some of the myths that he wanted to bust 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:14.759 or that I at least wanted him to address one 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:18.400 Betting the Sport of Tennis, Dan Weston on today's Tennis 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:23.600 Master Class series on the Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:30.920 It's a numbers game with your host Jil Alexander on 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:34.400 those us to believe in analytics. It is the numbers 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:37.319 game right here at Vista, the Vegas s tastt Information Network, 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:40.320 the sports Betting Network, Serious x and Channel two oh four, 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:42.880 Visa dot Com, the Visa A foobost link a Game Plus. 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:47.319 It is Gil Alexander live from Bay Live from San Francisco. 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:51.200 This is where sports betting, analytics, actionable sports betting information 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.240 lives on the show today. We don't get the opportunity 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:57.720 during the hamster wheel that we're on during the normal 0:01:57.760 --> 0:02:02.960 sports cycle to stop, reset at and get into handicapping basics, 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:06.600 especially on sports that we've made hay On specifically here 0:02:06.600 --> 0:02:09.720 on a numbers game like the sport of tennis UH. 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:11.240 And so we want to do that for a little 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:14.800 while today because I think this is what there's a 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:16.919 subset who was like, I really like to get into 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:18.720 the weeds of tennis. So we'll do this here at 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:20.520 the top of the show. And for that, of course, 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:24.919 we bring in our longest tenured UH tennis expert here 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:26.880 on the show and really the guy that we go 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.760 to for all the nuts and bolts. If you could 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:33.200 only bet one sporting event across the gamute and had 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:35.600 only one shot at one event, who would be the 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:37.800 guy you'd go to and what sport would it be? 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:42.040 Here's my answer. Everybody's Dan Weston from the UK there 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:44.800 in England right now, Dan, good afternoon to you. How 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:49.880 you doing, man, Yeah, I'm good, very condoms, thank you. 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:52.720 How how first of all, before we get into the 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:56.480 nuts and bolts here, how has give us a snapshot 0:02:56.520 --> 0:03:00.720 of how folks in England have dealt with the pandemic? 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:03.280 Is it's similar from your understanding of how we have 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:06.480 sort of chappy? How has it gone over there? Yeah, 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.839 it's a bit of a strange time really because you've 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:13.920 got the lockdown has happened, as it has with most 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:17.120 most countries really, but the government used it off about 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:18.840 a week and a half of that little bit so 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.200 you can you can see one person who's not in 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:23.240 your family at any one time as long as it's 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:27.079 outside and social distancing of two meters away, so there's 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:29.320 there's a little bit of more scopes sort of do 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:31.880 stuff you know, and shops are starting to open again, 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:34.680 like a few few know that sort of burger change, 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:37.680 like McDonald's, KFC, stuff like that are all starting to 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:41.280 open again. So it's a little bit of going back 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:44.760 to some fort normality. But it's so really strange time. 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:46.880 And obviously no sport as well, which is which is 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:50.000 strange for everybody, strange for everybody. I'm gonna start telling 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:52.080 people here when if they get within two ms of me, 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:54.800 because we use six feet obviously here did I'm gonna 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:56.839 start telling two meters, buddy, and see if they even 0:03:56.920 --> 0:04:00.680 have any idea what I'm talking about. Said you're doing. 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:03.680 You write for Pinnacle, you write for bet Fair, you 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:07.760 did for bet Fair here um Dancy Dance getting calls 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:10.080 during the show. It's the very popular man Dan you 0:04:10.280 --> 0:04:15.520 for for bet Fair. You've written this Masterclass Tennis betting series, 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.120 and master Class has become very popular on Facebook in 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:22.479 all different arenas, whether it's writing with Malcolm Gladwell, poker, 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:24.760 I think, Daniel and Grano, there's all kinds of things 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:27.280 that people are doing. Master classes. You do one for 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:29.960 tennis and you linked to it by the way on 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:32.440 your Twitter. Everybody should know at tennis ratings. So after 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:34.600 this discussion, if they want to go deeper, uh, they 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:37.160 can find the links there. But it's in three parts, 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:38.920 and I want to do the first two parts here 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:41.240 before the break, and then the third part after the 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:44.640 first of which is really the nuts and bolts of 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:48.080 what you do. It has to do with service, hold 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:52.960 and break opponent percentages or service and return points one percentages. 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:57.040 This is the crux of what you do because as 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.440 you put it, it really does give sort of a 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:02.480 fair Bay East line of the skill level of players. 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:06.000 Now that's exactly it. So there's there's a really strong 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:10.680 relationship between the combined hold break percentages of a player 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:14.240 and their win percentage, and likewise with the service and 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:16.640 return points one percentage for each players the same thing. 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:20.120 That's both of them really drive win percentages of players. 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.080 And if you if you look at the charts that 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:26.440 I put in their first article, you can see that 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:30.640 the top three players by the combined service and return 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.720 points one percentage, feder At, Djokovic, and Nadal all had 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:38.120 the three highest win percentages as well. So there's the 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:40.560 elite three are just still still out there. Is the 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:44.920 best as the best players on tour, and yeah, it's 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:48.119 it's really useful to start compare and contrast those those 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.720 players and and and what I do as well as 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:55.960 I use those those numbers surface related hugely, probably twelve 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.400 months sample size, I would try to try to do 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:01.400 on the whole. And I would then use those service 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:04.760 return points one percentages and whole break percentages for two 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:07.479 players on the surface to generate kind of model price 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.440 and just as sort of a guideline. And you and 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:13.159 I have referred to this on the show before, in 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:17.240 our in our many times together, when you combine service 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:21.280 and return points, you just add them together. One fifteen 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:24.840 is elite, you drop down a few percentage points from 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.200 there you're talking just below the elite level. And then 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:30.839 one hundred is what top fifty is that kind of 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.600 the very top fifty in the ranking. Yeah, the average 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:36.600 player on tour kind of thing. If you're a hundred, 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:40.560 then then about forty five fifty I find to be 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:43.160 to be about the mark for those type of players. 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:46.560 And yeah, they're on the whole. Players inside the top 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:48.719 fifty will have over a hundred percent mark. You know, 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:52.000 they're winning more points than they're they're losing. But obviously 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:54.920 that's a bit of a sliding scale. Um. But then 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:57.200 obviously players outside the top five in terms of ranking 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.360 unless they have long term injury players, you know, the 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:02.240 guys like Andy Murray, dal Pot etcetera, that they're going 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:06.080 to have on the whole below for those metrics as well. 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:09.480 So UM, and it's important obviously, is well kind of 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:11.000 putting go on and talk about to look at that 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.960 opponent quality and stuff as well. So that's that's that's 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:17.360 also that's sort of something to discuss as well. Yeah, 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:19.640 just just to give people some tangible examples. You already 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:23.280 mentioned Djokovic, Nadalin, Feder at least pre pandemic. We don't 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.160 know any different after the pandemic. But it is amazing 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:29.560 how those three guys are just completely off the charts 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.680 outlier you were in terms of their just elite status, 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:37.560 but in terms of that top fifty mark. I think 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:39.720 one of the things that I found fascinating was, and 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.520 this makes sense intuitively, when we watch the sport of tennis, 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:44.920 there aren't many examples, you say, of being below a 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:49.040 hundred percent combined in these categories and being consistently ranked 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:53.760 inside the ranked inside the top fifty, UM. But there 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:56.280 are there are some guys that sort of buck that, 0:07:56.760 --> 0:07:58.960 and they tend to be the guys we think of 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:02.520 as very in Lehman's violence heavy cases, if you will. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:06.000 Who are those guys? Yeah, well, I think we were 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:10.840 kind of enigmatic. It would be a diplomatic word, maybe, teach. 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:15.720 But benoir Pere was someone we've spoken about quite a 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:17.600 few times ourselves, haven't we on this on the show. 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:22.040 And he's this guy who's got a really high ability ceiling. 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:25.880 I remember watching him play del Potro in Rome maybe 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:29.200 like I want to say, but it might have been 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:31.840 a year either side of that, and he wiped the 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:35.280 fullward del Potro that day. That was That was a 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:36.840 real tough one for me to take because I was 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:41.320 I was favoring del Potro that day, and yeah, he's 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:44.880 got such a high ceiling, but he can just throw 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:47.400 in really bad performances as well. And and guys like 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:50.959 Fabio Fannini and Nick Kirios are also also you know, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:55.800 fit the bill in that respect as well. I would say, Yeah, 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.760 I find the outliers fascinating in general, because you were 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:03.400 talking about guys they're tend to win matches more than 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:09.000 those underlying analytics would suggest, and guys who tend to 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:14.120 lose more than their underlying analytics suggests give examples of 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:17.760 those categories. Yes, so for sure. I mean someone like 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.640 Stefano sits it passes, is someone who's a real outlier 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.440 in terms of how much they win compared to their 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:28.280 underlying data. So so there, his underlying data isn't fantastic. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.719 His decent, don't get me wrong, but it's not not 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.480 Stelen certainly not like top five level, which is kind 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:35.200 of on the class of right now in terms of 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:39.120 a ranking position um and and his return data is 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.760 what tends to hold him back. And I think that 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:43.480 that the unless he can address that, then it's going 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:45.840 to be probably quite a big problem in terms of 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:48.400 you know, looking at Grand Slams in the future on 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:51.719 the whole. But the vast, last, last majority of the 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.960 last ten fifteen years for men's Grand Slam winners have 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:59.360 all had above average percentages and considerably about average percentages 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.440 of breaking up oponents. And and that's pretty quite logical 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.480 as well, because you've you don't if you play best 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:06.920 of five steps, you don't want to play a long 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:09.080 long point. You don't want to play long matches, long 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:12.680 set sold matches that cumulating fatigue is just something to 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:14.880 you've really got to try and avoid as a player. 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:18.960 And the server orientated players like Sits the past and 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:21.680 going down the rankings a little bit, someone like Curios 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:25.800 as well. John is no sport likewise that really holds 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:28.520 them back in these big tournaments because the one they're 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:30.560 relying on variants a lot with the big serves and 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:33.240 tie breaks and stuff like that, key points winning key points, 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.559 but they're also going to get more tired because they're 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:37.760 playing longer matches on the whole one. And if you 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:40.199 look at like the winners of Grand Slams compared to 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:41.840 those guys who are about out in the courses and 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:43.520 any finals by that stage, a lot of the time 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:46.000 the winners have played like two three hours less court 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:49.760 time by the quarterfinals, and it's it's it makes a massive, 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:53.120 massive difference. On on the flip side, that's someone like 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.200 Mills around it should great or dematrop who have got 0:10:56.400 --> 0:11:00.640 got higher high reputations in the past have underwhelmed from 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:02.599 a win percentage, but their underland dates is actually a 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.559 little bit better than what you might expect from from 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:07.960 their win percentage. So then perhaps guys to look at 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:12.320 next season in terms of favorable conditions as well. Both 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:14.960 both not quite a fast course petulity demetrol and loves 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:20.160 the fast core finding finding some value on those guys 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:22.439 probably underrated a little bit by the market right now. 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.319 Talking to Dan Weston at Tennis Ratings is where you 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.839 can find him on Twitter, Tennis Ratings, dot CEO dot 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:32.320 UK his website. We won't give away every name and 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.000 every piece of your piece because we want people to 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:36.880 actually read through them. But in part two and you 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:39.560 alluded it to it, you alluded to it earlier, Dan, 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.960 opposition quality is such a key component of this, and 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:46.720 while that may sound obvious to some, you really dive 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:50.319 into that deeply. Yeah, Yeah, for sure. I mean, I 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:52.839 mean the fact that I mean, even my eyes I 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:55.160 will open studying this. To be honest with you, the 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.400 fact that the top top ten player has played like 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:01.280 three times as many matches against opten opposition as as 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:05.000 guys who rank forty fifty is just mind blowing, to 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:07.720 be honest with you, and it really shows how tough 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:09.320 the top guys have it in terms of having to 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:13.480 play a high quality opposition on a regular basis. Yeah, 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:17.240 and and the example of Novak Djokovic is such an 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:21.880 interesting one for people who ever had any doubts about 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.440 his dominance and just the nature of his dominance. You 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:27.920 make the point that once you get out of top 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:33.520 ten opponents, for Novak Djokovic, the dominance level is off 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:38.160 the charts, like it is breathtaking. Yeah, exactly that. So 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:42.400 he's boasting like isner service numbers for when he's not 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.600 playing top ten opposition, and obviously but he doesn't have 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:47.240 that reputation of being such a big server. But then 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:49.719 he's also like breaking like thirty five percent of the 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:54.360 time as well. So when you're when you're holding and 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:59.840 breaking thirty against an opponent ranking bracket that's so tough 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:03.280 to be in, is it's not surprising he's prohibitively short 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.080 priced by the market in most of those instances as well. 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:09.120 So here's the money question, then, Dan, Because it occurs 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.000 to me that people are listening to this and those 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:13.160 that are because those that have listened to this show 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.720 a numbers game on Visa. This is the sport that 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.440 we this in baseball are the two sports that we 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:23.360 kill the most. And what we've just described about tennis 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:28.800 really just trying to ascertain what, you know, the difference 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.199 between true skill set and what the stats are, what 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:35.000 performance shows, right, And it's very similar to pitching in baseball. 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:38.040 But the money question for those listening and who are interested, 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.160 are okay, baseball, I know where to get all those numbers. 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.079 I go to these specific websites like fan graphs that 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:49.080 the volume of information is just boundless. Where do they 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:53.600 go for service hold and break opponent percentages or service 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:57.360 and return points one percentages? In tennis? Where does one 0:13:57.480 --> 0:14:00.880 get that data? Yeah, that's a very good question. I 0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.160 think there's a number of good resources online for that. 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:07.320 So the ATP website is actually not too bad for it, 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.000 and it goes back quite historically as well in terms 0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:12.560 of the year's current so you can live and look 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.000 at like you know, previous years and stuff like that. 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:20.640 Um also you can buy all means you can anyone 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.160 can build their own database of data from the match 0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:25.200 stats as well. That I mean, there's so many websites 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:29.080 which have matched stats for for the individual matches. So 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:34.000 for example, websites like flash scores, so for scores, there's 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:35.640 there's plenty of others who are sort of will run 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:37.120 off the same engine. They look like they run off 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.880 the same engine. Um do the match stats that you 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:42.840 can then put into your own database and create your 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.840 own database of every single player. Alternatively, there's some subscription 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:49.800 sites that also cover that type of information as well. 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:52.840 So there's there's websites such as on Court and Tennis 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:55.640 Insight as well. They charge the subscription, but they have 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:57.920 a lot of information as well. So so a few 0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:00.880 a few sites for people to have a look at. Yeah, 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:02.880 and then every once in a blue moon, we should 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:06.320 say when you're feeling generous, you come on this show 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.720 and you're like, hey, I'll give this to you black. 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.000 We usually do it for Slams right where you're like, oh, 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:12.720 I'll give you this up, so you'll you may. I 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:14.640 don't want to put you on the spot, but maybe 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:16.840 once or twice in the future you'll do that as well. 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.640 I guess I'm so we will. Yeah. Well, it was 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:26.040 capped up in Slams and sometimes Masters tournaments as well. Yeah. Yeah, Well, 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:28.840 let's hope. Let's hope tennis is sooner than later, Dan, 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.440 because you know, as we remember here in this country, 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:36.080 the night that the NBA shut down and the mornings 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:40.080 when college basketball tournaments UH conference tournaments shut down. But 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:44.440 really it was tennis that was the first UH sport 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.760 to have a cancelation. And it was tennis is de 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:52.320 facto fifth major at Indian Wells the Sunday before the 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.440 NBA shut down where they were, and remember they were 0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:59.000 ridiculed when they did it. But Riverside County, you know, 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:02.920 which is a very old population, UH predominantly older population. 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.960 They really made a great move there. And tennis has 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:08.920 been the first sport to really be vigilant about this 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.640 and and UH and shut down sport. But we, like 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.760 every other sport, hope it comes back um sooner than later, 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.200 that's for sure. After the Breakdan, let's get into the 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:22.360 three biggest myths of tennis handicapping. We'll do that coming 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:24.840 back on a numbers game with Dan Weston right here 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.360 at Visa these Sports betting them. Welcome back to a 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:31.920 numbers game with Jill Alexander. Numbers game brought you by 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.520 man escaped dot com. Manscape dot com has the tools 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.880 for your family jewels. You can get off let's free 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.840 shipping with the code visa in at manscape dot com. 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:43.880 That's at manscaped dot Com with promo code v S 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:48.200 I n Gil Alexander in San Francisco, Dan Weston in 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:52.960 England joining us by video Skype, Dan Great question off Twitter. Uh, 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:56.160 this is the thing I always bring up when it 0:16:56.200 --> 0:17:00.160 comes to tennis data, Jamie Samuel Great Minds or a 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:04.480 great question? Does Dan fine? Spreads can be quote unquote 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.720 wonky in tennis because players win differently. Some get up 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:09.760 a break and they are happy to just maintain that break, 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.400 maybe to conserve energy. Fed on grass comes to mind. 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:14.520 He says, others tend to put their foot down and 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:17.080 don no matter the score. I would sort of add 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.520 to that. There is this notion of people people always 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.240 the brains always goes to fit, they go to fixing matches. 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:26.119 I'm not talking about fixing matches. What about the dirty 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:29.960 data also of guys who they're down a break in 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:31.959 a set. Let's say they're up two to one, and 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:34.159 let's say a five setter, they're down a break in 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:37.320 a fourth set, and they just kind of decide, yeah, 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:39.719 I'm just gonna let this set go and play the 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.080 fifth set. So there is that notion of of dirty 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:45.360 data in tennis. Is that a problem for you? Yeah? 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:47.800 I know what you're saying here. I'm I think that 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.720 it's quite a rare circumstance. That's say, a player will 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.720 tanker set when they're a set down just to break 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:57.200 downstars saying a set when they're leading, so te one 0:17:57.240 --> 0:18:00.320 up in in the fourth set in a Glands slamming 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.119 the breakdown. I don't think. I don't see that as 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:06.560 being a major major issue. Um. It probably does happen sometimes, 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:08.679 but I think the effect on overall data is like 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:12.119 a very very negligible. Obviously, in the best of three 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:15.480 set of matches, it's even less likely that someone's going 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:18.639 to want to tank a set just just you know, 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:20.560 I think that's you could you can say that there's 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:22.879 as much likelihood of that happening from the kind of 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:26.560 fatigue mentality kind of perspective as as a player just 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:30.280 kind of like imploding anyway and mentally and you know, 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.280 just just completely like losing the pullot mentally because they's 0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:37.320 stressed or whatever. And I don't see it's a major 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:41.440 issue um at all, really, to be honest. And and 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.240 as far as what Jamie was saying, where certain players 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:47.320 might have different behaviors, I guess it all falls under 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:49.119 the same category where you're saying is you're you're just 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:51.440 going to look at the raw data. The more you 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.360 overthink it, the more you're polluting it. Basically, you don't 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.080 want to get into that game. Yeah, I mean with 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:59.520 with with the kind of the raw data and looking 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:03.600 at player ability to come back or or retain retain leads, 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:06.040 will come back from deficits stuff. That's that's very very important. 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:07.960 I have a database with that as well, which I 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:11.719 think is quite useful, particularly if you're maybe taking taking 0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:16.119 prices in running as well, if you can do that. Um, 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:19.639 but there is a kind of a trend really, so 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:23.600 what yours find is that the serve orientated players they 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.040 win sets by much more narrow margins, but there are 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:28.280 also a lot better at retaining leads because they've got 0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:31.000 that powerful serves to back them up when when times 0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:35.240 get tough, then a breakpoint down or fifteen fifteen forty down, 0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:36.560 a lot of the time they can serve their way 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:40.080 out of that whole. And whereas whereas a more return 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.560 arounentated player and perhaps a typical clay quarter doesn't have 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.600 the serve to to bail them out when when when necessary, 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:49.520 And so generally you find that there's this trend where 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:53.760 the lower the hold percentage or the small smaller the 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:57.240 gap between whole percentage and break percentage, the more likely 0:19:57.240 --> 0:19:59.760 a player is to to lose leads and to have 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:04.680 more more of a a match which is quite topsy 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:06.679 turvy with a lot of breaks, or perhaps some some 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.280 dominant sets as well, like a double break leader for 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.560 set like say six to as opposed to the server 0:20:11.600 --> 0:20:14.240 orientated guys, you know that is a curiosity and federer 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:17.720 who with a lot of sets sort of six four seven, 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.720 five seven six type things. All right, Dan, we got 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:22.640 ninety seconds, So I'm going to shout out the three 0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:24.879 big myths in tennis handicapping, and you give me a 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:28.159 few words on them. One the fallacy of head to 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:31.600 head records. Yeah, so head to head records. This is 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:34.000 the sample size is just not big enough to to 0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:38.119 to warrant much investigation into this um what what what 0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:40.159 I would say is that it's got to really have 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:43.320 a lot of context with it. So recently, the recent 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:45.640 data two to three years at least the three Neil 0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:50.800 lead would be would be recommended. Also, the surface did 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:53.600 they play on the surface, which was favoring one particular player, 0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:56.159 and also like looking at the career trajectories of of 0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:58.280 the different players as well, because sometimes you see like 0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:00.280 a guy like three down in head to head, but 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:02.399 all them three defeats were like when he was like 0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:04.480 a young player and now he's a lot better. So 0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:06.440 how can you really give any credence to that head 0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:10.480 to head? He can't really um and and understanding the 0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:12.840 context of the matchup as well. So I talked about 0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:15.640