Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Loves Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe wasn't All, and I'm Tracy al went Tracy.
Speaker 1: You know what I just found out. You know, people
Speaker 1: have asked me when did odd Lots start? And I
Speaker 1: didn't know the date up until just now. The exact date. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I know, roughly in our first episode November. I think
Speaker 1: I would have said a little bit earlier, but October,
Speaker 1: like summer or something. But we've been doing this, so
Speaker 1: that's crazy. So it's like seven years more than seven years. Wow,
Speaker 1: time time flies when you're having fun. That's a long time.
Speaker 1: And when we first started, you were in New York, yes,
Speaker 1: and then you went to I went to Abby Dhabi
Speaker 1: and I remember I remember sitting on my living room
Speaker 1: floor on this big Oriental carpet with like a Moroccan
Speaker 1: poof in front of me and recording all thoughts episode
Speaker 1: at six pm in the evening. And then and then
Speaker 1: I went to Hong Kong, and then you made your
Speaker 1: life even then you made it even more. And then
Speaker 1: it was like ten or eleven pm at night, and
Speaker 1: I was recording these episodes from an apartment that was
Speaker 1: mostly made out of cement, which means that the sound
Speaker 1: just echoed off of the walls and it was a
Speaker 1: complete nightmare from an audio perspective. When in that process
Speaker 1: did you get your dog? Oh? That was so he
Speaker 1: was a pandemic puppy, and so he would have been
Speaker 1: making noise in the background while I was huddled under
Speaker 1: a blanket. And I used to cut the air conditioner
Speaker 1: in Hong Kong as well because it was really noisy.
Speaker 1: So I'd be in a cement apartment under a blanket
Speaker 1: without any air conditioning, and the humidity is like a
Speaker 1: hud percent and it's you know, ninety degrees out and
Speaker 1: the puppy is winding behind me. So I'm glad to
Speaker 1: say that, at least from my perspective, the recording options
Speaker 1: have improved vastly since then. Yeah, I'm glad you're back.
Speaker 1: I felt bad by the end, like you, having to
Speaker 1: do these episodes there one that I did it like
Speaker 1: three in the morning one. But it must have been
Speaker 1: a really good guest. Yes, it was all worth it.
Speaker 1: It was all worth it, and it led us to
Speaker 1: um this moment here where we're reunited in the New
Speaker 1: York office. We're in a proper recording studio and we
Speaker 1: get to talk about our first ever episode. So I
Speaker 1: think we actually recorded that episode in the exact studio
Speaker 1: that we're in right now. We've recorded it in a
Speaker 1: few different places, but I think it was literally in
Speaker 1: this room right So for this festive holiday season, we
Speaker 1: are re releasing our first ever episode. Our guest for
Speaker 1: that episode was Tom Keane, who is our colleague over
Speaker 1: here at Bloomberg News. You might recognize him from Bloomberg Television.
Speaker 1: He hosts the Surveillance Morning Show, and when you listen
Speaker 1: to it, you might notice that a few things are different,
Speaker 1: a few different here and there. You know, we probably
Speaker 1: sound a little bit different as well. We didn't know
Speaker 1: what we were doing. We didn't know what Odds was
Speaker 1: going to be. I mean, I still don't know what
Speaker 1: it is, but we definitely didn't know at the time,
Speaker 1: and so it was one of these things that were
Speaker 1: like whoa podcast seemed fun, A lot of people are
Speaker 1: listening to them, and you know, before we joined Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: like Tom Keane sort of this legendary figure at the company,
Speaker 1: sort of like someone that many of us idolized or
Speaker 1: I certainly did, and his interview style and his intelligence
Speaker 1: and just the sort of like general flair and esthetic
Speaker 1: of Tom Keene for those who know him, a very
Speaker 1: distinctive figure. So it's like, I gotta talk to Tom,
Speaker 1: you said. Distinctive figure. For those who don't know Tom
Speaker 1: is like what six ft seven or something. He's big.
Speaker 1: He wears a bow tie. I think he used to
Speaker 1: play hockey, and he just kind of strides the corridors
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg's office, throwing out one liners like slope matters,
Speaker 1: and if you get him going, he's really into talk
Speaker 1: about musical instruments, like his banjo, got some some guitar
Speaker 1: strings that he bought off a guy who lives in
Speaker 1: Europe that he's always wanted amps. He can talk about anything. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I think this is one of the reasons why
Speaker 1: we had him on. He was sort of our like
Speaker 1: initial test subject, just to see what it would be
Speaker 1: like recording a podcast, but we also wanted to talk
Speaker 1: about things with him, So I think on this episode
Speaker 1: we spoke about music, as you just mentioned, We talked
Speaker 1: about Matt Winkler, who was sort of one of the
Speaker 1: founding fathers of Bloomberg News. We talked about both ties
Speaker 1: and his wardrobe. I think we talked about how his mom,
Speaker 1: Tom's mom taught him how to make stock charge. Oh, yes,
Speaker 1: very important. This is where the whole Slope Matters thing
Speaker 1: comes from. So there's you know, it was one of
Speaker 1: our first interviews. But it's also very very so it's
Speaker 1: interesting to listen to just from from that perspective to
Speaker 1: see how far we've come. But it's also with Tom Keane,
Speaker 1: who's an interesting guy, and uh, we should we should
Speaker 1: listen to it again. I am really excited that we
Speaker 1: are digging this one from the vaults, both because I'm
Speaker 1: still such a big fan of Tom and also sort
Speaker 1: of take stock of the last seven years, how far
Speaker 1: we've come figured out this format. And you know, one
Speaker 1: day in the year I guess twenty nine, we'll be
Speaker 1: listening to this episode and we're like, Wow, we've come along.
Speaker 1: Hopefully we've come along basin our production values. Have it
Speaker 1: improved immensely? Um? Okay, Well, without further ado, here is
Speaker 1: the rerun of our very first Odd Lots episode featuring
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Tom Keane. Enjoy Hello, and welcome to the first
Speaker 1: episode of Odd Lots. I'm Joe Wisnthal, co host of
Speaker 1: What Do You miss and editor of Bloomberg Markets. Now,
Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway, executive editor of Bloomberg Markets. Here at
Speaker 1: Odd Lots, we want to have a discussion every week
Speaker 1: about economics, finance, markets, market structure, which Tracy loved, maybe
Speaker 1: some politics and culture thrown in stuff that doesn't necessarily
Speaker 1: fit into the normal day to day conversation. And we
Speaker 1: couldn't think of any guest better to have than Tom
Speaker 1: Keen in my Guinea Pig, You're the guinea pig. Tom Keane,
Speaker 1: as everyone should know, is the host of Bloomberg Surveillance
Speaker 1: on TV and radio here Bloomberg. He knows more about
Speaker 1: markets and economics and world events than just about anyone
Speaker 1: else in the room. He's a very eclectic background in
Speaker 1: music and mathematics. And I wanted to have I wanted
Speaker 1: to have Tom Keene on the show because Tom is
Speaker 1: always interviewing people, but he's never answering questions, never behind,
Speaker 1: try to avoid it. So we're gonna doing this for you, Joe.
Speaker 1: I'm doing this for Tracy. Everybody knows that. But who
Speaker 1: are you Tom? Why are you here? How did you
Speaker 1: get to be Tom Keane who everybody knows and love?
Speaker 1: I get it a lot, And what I would suggest
Speaker 1: is it's one part short term stuff, one part long
Speaker 1: term stuff, and one part blind luck. The long term
Speaker 1: thing is is being acutely aware when I was a
Speaker 1: kid and evermore every day knowing how twisted the early
Speaker 1: years where I found something met Stan Freeburg record and
Speaker 1: you don't know Stan Freeburg is he was a great comedian.
Speaker 1: He just died this year. And then recently it was
Speaker 1: about the privilege of running into Matt Winkler and basically
Speaker 1: Matt and I with the support of l Mayers who
Speaker 1: runs Bloomberg Media, and Ted Fine who runs TV, they're
Speaker 1: the ones that made all this happen. Matt win Clair,
Speaker 1: for our listeners who don't know, is the guy who
Speaker 1: founded Bloomberg News essentially, so you got lucky met Matt
Speaker 1: win Clair. He just hired me because the bow tie.
Speaker 1: But to make a long story short, you get lucky
Speaker 1: and I met Matt and we basically invented what you see.
Speaker 1: That's that's a safe statement. What were you doing before then?
Speaker 1: Because when I think of you, I think you projected
Speaker 1: or of someone who's been doing radio for decades. But
Speaker 1: what were you doing before you did radio and TV?
Speaker 1: Well before the media thing, I was in the investment business.
Speaker 1: But there's a whole sidecar thing in music and an
Speaker 1: entertainment um, for example. And I gauge it off my
Speaker 1: oldest child's age. I used to hold him in my
Speaker 1: arms into the stock report in Boston. And this is
Speaker 1: the vanilla days, not cross asset, the dal Jones industrial
Speaker 1: average up forty two points today, eight forty two blah
Speaker 1: blah blah. You know that. And so I did a
Speaker 1: little bit of investment stuff back then, but a lot
Speaker 1: of it was just the music business as well, which
Speaker 1: is the show business aspect which a lot of people
Speaker 1: in business media try to ignore every day. And they're wrong.
Speaker 1: I mean, the f T s pink. It's pink for
Speaker 1: a reason. It's pink. It's like what you did. I mean,
Speaker 1: you invented the modern headline in modern business journalism. So
Speaker 1: it's just you know that Wisnthal wrote that headliner. You
Speaker 1: just know that. How has her investment experience informed your career?
Speaker 1: Huge huge um. It's a massive type two and that
Speaker 1: you learn so much enjoying losing money. It's it's for
Speaker 1: those of you gaus see and it's log normal. Uh,
Speaker 1: you learn way more on the downside and the upside.
Speaker 1: Lots of fat tail risks. There's fat tail risk, but
Speaker 1: that's not that that's over emphasized. It's the joy of
Speaker 1: losing money within the fat tails, which is I think
Speaker 1: that's when you learn factors more losing money than making
Speaker 1: money factors. But I can tell you that the way
Speaker 1: I learned to lose money was enjoying losing money in
Speaker 1: the options market. And then so when you're doing the show,
Speaker 1: whether on radio or TV, how do you apply that
Speaker 1: the fact that you learned so much more when you
Speaker 1: lost money. When you think about it, humility show, it's
Speaker 1: a it's a humility thing of knowing every day how
Speaker 1: dumb you are and trying to always work at getting smarter,
Speaker 1: laughing at your mistakes. There's a there's a lot there's
Speaker 1: less now after the financial crisis, but there's lots of
Speaker 1: people strutting around with a certain intellectual arrogance about economics, finance, investment.
Speaker 1: Right now nobody has arrogance and international relations. Did you
Speaker 1: have to learn how much you don't know? Like, what's
Speaker 1: the point earlier in your career where you thought you
Speaker 1: knew it all and then you know certitude of yeah,
Speaker 1: you you you learn from a wide set of mistakes
Speaker 1: and cycles, which gives you a humility which forces you
Speaker 1: to get smarter. For example, I went to a wedding
Speaker 1: this weekend and half the wedding was from Uruguay. I
Speaker 1: know nothing about Mona Badeo except one of my kids.
Speaker 1: Friends all went down there because it couldn't get a
Speaker 1: job in America. And I read seven articles this weekend
Speaker 1: in Uruguay just to to begin to I have no
Speaker 1: clue about Uruguay. There's that kind of madness, but compounded
Speaker 1: over time. I know nothing about Uruguay. I know nothing
Speaker 1: about Monte Videt was a great humble bred because you
Speaker 1: slide in how easily you knew the capital. Now I
Speaker 1: have to ask you talk about certitude on Wall Street
Speaker 1: And in addition to having a musical background, you also
Speaker 1: have a mathematical background. And it seems like one of
Speaker 1: the areas in markets where people start to get really
Speaker 1: certain and have that certain mathematical swagger is when it
Speaker 1: comes to models, and you love talking about models. How
Speaker 1: does your experience in mathematics feed into yeah that the
Speaker 1: background there was growing up with it. I have the
Speaker 1: clearest memories of gooding up on my tiptoes and looking
Speaker 1: over my father's desk. Is he did very sophisticated triple
Speaker 1: integration of space satellites and I would literally play on
Speaker 1: the floor with the French curves is a million years
Speaker 1: ago and like like think spot Nick and I g
Speaker 1: y and all that, and all of that became a
Speaker 1: mathiness which culminated in Max peters fabulous program at the
Speaker 1: University of Colorado. Max Peters was a highly decorated Italian
Speaker 1: infantryman up the spine of Italy and World War Two,
Speaker 1: and he went out to Colorado and put together, uh,
Speaker 1: the mother of all grinds in engineering academics. And I
Speaker 1: was extremely fortunate to parachute into that for a couple
Speaker 1: of years. So you take, you know what I get
Speaker 1: in math and what I don't get, and trust me,
Speaker 1: is a lot I don't get. And then you overlay
Speaker 1: that into some of the certitude of quantitative finance and
Speaker 1: you get a massive humility. I think the math overlay
Speaker 1: is a it's a massive type one. You've got it,
Speaker 1: But what it really is, and I see it every
Speaker 1: day and it's getting worse. It's a little better in
Speaker 1: a couple of last couple of years. Is the math
Speaker 1: phobia within economics, finance, investments just stunning. It's just breathtaking
Speaker 1: that you see rampant math phobia, because other people have
Speaker 1: argued that it's just the opposite, that economics and finances
Speaker 1: become too mathy to the point where people can't explain
Speaker 1: in clear English what they're talking about. Yeah, well, let
Speaker 1: me part that debate. You're absolutely right, Joe. The basic
Speaker 1: idea is there was an era, particularly coming out of
Speaker 1: World War Two, of math, too much math, math anxiety, etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker 1: And then at the undergraduate level, not at the PhD,
Speaker 1: not at the doctor trak level, the graduate level, but
Speaker 1: at the undergraduate level, a vast majority of people don't
Speaker 1: have the dynamics in their head to do even basic
Speaker 1: martiality and microeconomics or you know, name the flavor of
Speaker 1: macro you want to do. The British are very different.
Speaker 1: In the French, they have much better, as a rule
Speaker 1: of thumb, undergraduate mathematics than we do. If I, if
Speaker 1: I talked to British students, their knowledge of first order
Speaker 1: difference equations off the chart honors undergraduate programs in the US.
Speaker 1: Some of them. They have no clue what what that is.
Speaker 1: I'm pleased to say I've I've forgotten almost all the
Speaker 1: mathematics I learned interversity and college. However, however, I want
Speaker 1: to know. So when you see something like the events
Speaker 1: of August when the market sold off and a lot
Speaker 1: of people were talking about mathematical formulas and model based
Speaker 1: equations and risk parody at the center of that sell off,
Speaker 1: what do you think. I think some of it was
Speaker 1: extremely valid this time around. Uh I, I think that
Speaker 1: the model fatigue is much more in the macro area.
Speaker 1: The work Olivia Blanchard did at the i m F
Speaker 1: with Joe Stiglson others really important to ask the non
Speaker 1: sophisticated and the very sophisticated differential equation models that pro
Speaker 1: PhDs use, and I don't pretend to be fluent in them.
Speaker 1: They're very suspect after what we went through in August
Speaker 1: of O seven. Stepping back, so you have this interest
Speaker 1: in lifelong interest in mathematics in music, which I was
Speaker 1: also want to get to. But then how did that?
Speaker 1: When did it click that markets and investments when you
Speaker 1: were in the earliest memories, earliest it was permeating in
Speaker 1: my house. My my grandfather knew a w CO and
Speaker 1: the point and figure guy. He did point and figure charts.
Speaker 1: My mother did point and figure charts. Comes from a
Speaker 1: family totally totally permeating investment theory and investment analysis, you know,
Speaker 1: just original Graham, Dodd and Coddle up. And in addition
Speaker 1: to everything else, you were always interested in. You always
Speaker 1: knew that this was something you wanted to know. You know,
Speaker 1: you didn't know it just was there, just there, It
Speaker 1: was just there kind of thing. I'm also, I don't
Speaker 1: think a lot of people know about your musical background,
Speaker 1: but why do you give us the six Here's Tom
Speaker 1: King's music. The ninety second version is real simple. At
Speaker 1: eight years old, I walked into a place called Stutsman's,
Speaker 1: which is legendary and the acoustic music business with my father.
Speaker 1: There were six Grutch White Falcons lined up and Rochester,
Speaker 1: New York Kodak, and my father bought me a forty
Speaker 1: two dollar you know, acoustic guitar and then I just
Speaker 1: began grinding away and there were three or four iterations
Speaker 1: of it. But to make a long story short, I
Speaker 1: ended up doing the New England singer songwriter thing, juggling
Speaker 1: a bunch of other stuff. There's a place in Nashville
Speaker 1: called the Blueberg Cafe, which is magical. You know. It
Speaker 1: was just the New England folks and it was sort
Speaker 1: of you know in terms of artists around it. Uh,
Speaker 1: it was post Tracy Chapman, Um Susanne Vega was really
Speaker 1: happening with Luca and Solitude standing and then a whole
Speaker 1: host of people came on, really jumped, started by a
Speaker 1: guy named David Wilcox who did an album called Either
Speaker 1: Hurricane for A and M Records, which just there was
Speaker 1: like this mini folk boom and what was so cool?
Speaker 1: We knew when we this is before the internet. That's
Speaker 1: a key statement. Even we had no idea what was
Speaker 1: coming in digital, but we knew how lucky we were
Speaker 1: to do it. When we were doing it, we knew
Speaker 1: it couldn't last. What was the greatest guitar you've ever owned?
Speaker 1: The one I got now with the greatest guitar my
Speaker 1: my concert Gibson J one hundred, which was picked out
Speaker 1: by Eric Schoenberg up in Boston, was stolen and I
Speaker 1: got it back four years ago. I told Dave Drummond
Speaker 1: and Google. I got it off Google Images. There was
Speaker 1: my guitar and Google images. But that and I've got
Speaker 1: some others now, but I think that's you know, I
Speaker 1: guess the best ones that when my father had, but
Speaker 1: that's been lost. So with your very very idiosyncratic background
Speaker 1: in mathematics, so it's like Joe Wisenthals an investment. When
Speaker 1: you do your show today at Bloomberg and you look
Speaker 1: around the world, what do you see as the most
Speaker 1: important story going on right now? Um, I think the
Speaker 1: number one stories. One of my kids said to me, Daddy,
Speaker 1: when does this get got to be fun? And I
Speaker 1: think there's a massive understanding by people of a certain
Speaker 1: vintage that the kids don't have. They have lots of
Speaker 1: wonderful digital stuff and medical stuff, etcetera, etcetera, but the
Speaker 1: optimism has been shattered. And the answer Jeff emmel I
Speaker 1: was with two years ago, I'm guessing and he said, look,
Speaker 1: all we need is three point two percent g d
Speaker 1: P and that solves a lot of problems. That's a
Speaker 1: very smart comment by the applied methematician from Dartmouth. We
Speaker 1: don't have that. The the younger people, people under about
Speaker 1: thirty two, have never no own normal so when you
Speaker 1: look at the world, you don't necessarily see problems of inequality,
Speaker 1: you see generational problems. No, I think they're both there,
Speaker 1: but I think in two thousand and fifteen that the
Speaker 1: generational issues are less spoken, which to an extent speaks
Speaker 1: of the anger in the politics today. When do you
Speaker 1: think it wasn't normal or when was it was? Well,
Speaker 1: you know, you stand on the floor of the Republican
Speaker 1: convention ex conventions ago and you go, well, this is
Speaker 1: surreal or the Democratic doesn't matter which part party, But
Speaker 1: the answer is we are programmed for certain nominally real
Speaker 1: GDP that ain't happened. There's a quarter here at quarter there,
Speaker 1: Macroeconomic Advisors right now is third quarter at one. The
Speaker 1: next quarter is a little bit better. But we we
Speaker 1: have not had the run rate of GDP that provides
Speaker 1: base psychological comfort to a lot of people, whether it's
Speaker 1: over educated torps like my kids, or you know, people
Speaker 1: really struggling millions of Americas. Do you think I mean,
Speaker 1: I remember thinking in and when we had the Raging
Speaker 1: Dead ceiling debate, and I think that was the first
Speaker 1: time that we saw this huge I would say the
Speaker 1: crisis and the economy seeming to really spill over into
Speaker 1: politics and we had to start division the Tea Party
Speaker 1: and leadership. But it hasn't faded as much as I
Speaker 1: would have guessed, given how far unemployment has dropped. I mean,
Speaker 1: the economy is much better than it was in eleven,
Speaker 1: but we still have and look at Donald Trump and
Speaker 1: leading in the polls, and you have a rise of
Speaker 1: more radical politicians everywhere. Do you think it's something beyond economics.
Speaker 1: It has to do with the media environment, the Internet.
Speaker 1: It has to do the media, and it has to
Speaker 1: do with speed of trans Twitter and all. I mean
Speaker 1: the cypress crisis alone with Twitter was surreal that Saturday
Speaker 1: morning when how the Twitter dialogue changed the discussion. But
Speaker 1: what I would what is under emphasized from a Newtonian
Speaker 1: mechanics standpoint is inertial force and the word chronic. And
Speaker 1: the answer is you totally right about ten and eleven.
Speaker 1: And what's different now is it may not be force
Speaker 1: masure like it was then, but there's just this chronic
Speaker 1: weight of gridlock in Washington, this chronic sense of g
Speaker 1: d P under performing even while unemployment supposedly gets better.
Speaker 1: And that goes back to productivity. You know, we could board.
Speaker 1: Everybody was three ratio productivity analysis. Productivity in the media
Speaker 1: is appallingly reported. There's capital, there's labor, and there's a
Speaker 1: separate ratio wrapped around something called total factor productivity or TFP.
Speaker 1: And the pros know all that and they sort of just,
Speaker 1: you know, when we talk about productivity, gloss over it.
Speaker 1: But the answers labor ain't happening. And certainly for a
Speaker 1: part of America, this Angus Deaton winning the Nobel Prize
Speaker 1: a big deal, big big deal. This is the death
Speaker 1: of aggregate aggregation, of summoning everything together, and that that's
Speaker 1: a really big deal that I talked to Shower tonight
Speaker 1: and I'm a chance to talk about it. Well, that
Speaker 1: brings us to again to your show. When you go
Speaker 1: out and talk to people, what makes some good interviews
Speaker 1: and who are the best interviewees that you think you've had,
Speaker 1: it's a it's a chemistry. It's a mixture, uh, And
Speaker 1: there's always exceptions. There's hyper academic people that fail, and
Speaker 1: and that I do think it's a chemistry. We keep
Speaker 1: very careful track of who we like and who we
Speaker 1: don't like. And I would say the third rail is
Speaker 1: we don't want people that are scripted or consulted. That
Speaker 1: was the rage to three five years ago. There's less
Speaker 1: of that now. We have less and less people on
Speaker 1: talking points, which is where a consultant comes in and
Speaker 1: tells them four things to say. That's going away. But
Speaker 1: mostly it's you know, it's a media phrase. Pop. They've
Speaker 1: got to have pop, particularly radio is critical. So we
Speaker 1: talked about these sort of big general generational issues that
Speaker 1: you see is the main thing? What about this moment
Speaker 1: specifically when you look at financial markets? What are the
Speaker 1: big things that you're watching. We're gonna get into prediction
Speaker 1: season soon for what do you? What do you what
Speaker 1: do you have your on? What would you what are
Speaker 1: the charts that you look at first thing in the morning.
Speaker 1: My chart of the year's inflation adjusted come out of
Speaker 1: these back sixty seventy years. I've shown it in TV
Speaker 1: probably ten times. You can still it's a great chart,
Speaker 1: great great chart, and it looks like a persistent decline
Speaker 1: in commodity prices over many years. And then there's a
Speaker 1: China aberration and we are, are, off the top of
Speaker 1: my head, two thirds to three quarters of our way
Speaker 1: back to normal, which is commodity long term commodity deflation,
Speaker 1: So you don't think the long term, we're not it's
Speaker 1: not over yet, if we're going to return to normal,
Speaker 1: I would suggest not that it's not over. I'm not
Speaker 1: going to make a prediction. I would say the people
Speaker 1: predicting it is over ore on tenuous ground. That's Thomas
Speaker 1: media experience coming through that, refusing to make a prediction.
Speaker 1: Do you think one thing I feel is like everyone
Speaker 1: is talking about deflation in central banks around the world,
Speaker 1: failing to hit their policies, and how are they going
Speaker 1: to reflate? They can't do it? And then you see
Speaker 1: these conversations the Phillips curve, this idea that the employment
Speaker 1: and the inflation ratear inversely related, and how that's dead
Speaker 1: and broken. Do you think we could be getting to
Speaker 1: an extreme in the other direction where everyone has just
Speaker 1: thrown in the towel on any sort of inflation coming
Speaker 1: back and anything like that, and no to get wonky
Speaker 1: on you within a class hi SLM matrix Johnny Hicks
Speaker 1: thirty nine and Krugman's written about this beautifully. What I
Speaker 1: would suggest is there's a total underestimation of real economy effects.
Speaker 1: Everybody's over in the bank. What's yelling gonna do, what's
Speaker 1: karneiy gonna do? Which is fine, I mean, that's what
Speaker 1: keeps us in quite all rio's but the real economy
Speaker 1: effects have been grossly underrated from day one of the
Speaker 1: crisis August of oh seven. And the other thing I
Speaker 1: would suggest is the interest rate transmission between the real
Speaker 1: economy and the bank side of things. The l M
Speaker 1: curve is totally broken at the zero bound, and these
Speaker 1: there's things we don't understand that are going on in
Speaker 1: the interest rate sphere right now that there there there's
Speaker 1: a mystery here. I can't believe we've gotten this far
Speaker 1: in the segment without talking about your bow ties and
Speaker 1: the fact that the boat's high was almost entirely responsible
Speaker 1: for bringing you to Bloomberg, since Mr Matt Winkler all
Speaker 1: so enjoys wearing those ties. I found a picture of
Speaker 1: my grandfather, my mother's father, five years ago, holding me,
Speaker 1: and he had a bow tie on. I have no
Speaker 1: recollection of my grandfather having a bow tech um. It
Speaker 1: started when I was sort of sort of kind of
Speaker 1: like premed and I was in emergency rooms and they
Speaker 1: wouldn't let you wear a normal tie. Because they're afraid
Speaker 1: the patient will grab you with a regular tie, so
Speaker 1: I was forced to wear a bow tech uh, doing
Speaker 1: what was called extern This is a million years ago.
Speaker 1: This is before anesthesia and uh uh, you know it
Speaker 1: sort of started with that. I'm assuming back then they
Speaker 1: weren't a maze ties though as they they were not. No,
Speaker 1: they weren't. We did the clip on thing minimally. I
Speaker 1: must admit that that was like, I don't want to
Speaker 1: do that. Do you have a favorite tie? Doesn't mean something? No,
Speaker 1: not really. This one's actually very old. This is like
Speaker 1: one of the original It's an orange tie for those
Speaker 1: we Thank you very much for joining us. That was
Speaker 1: a phenomenal discussion. I learned a lot about you. And
Speaker 1: podcast is really cool. You know, we did them years
Speaker 1: ago and I totally agree with a new um enthusiasm podcast.
Speaker 1: Thank you for being our guinea pig. Tom, Thank you,
Speaker 1: thank you for joining us on the first episode of
Speaker 1: Odd Lots. Will be doing this every week and you
Speaker 1: can find it on Bloomberg dot com, iTunes, SoundCloud, and
Speaker 1: just about anywhere else. You can follow us on Twitter
Speaker 1: at at the Stalwart for me, at Tracy Ellaway for
Speaker 1: Tracy will obviously be tweeting out the links. And thanks
Speaker 1: again to Tom Keene for joining us and being our
Speaker 1: guinea pig on this first episode, and thank you for
Speaker 1: listening