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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds and an Emerson College Paul gives Democrats

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Speaker 1: a twelve point generic fallid advantage. We have such a

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Speaker 1: great show for you today. To the contrary, Charlie Sykes

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Speaker 1: stops by to talk about Donald Trump starting a war

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Speaker 1: he cannot end. Then we'll talk to Semaphore's Dave Weigel

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Speaker 1: about the final stretch of the mid term primaries and

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Speaker 1: the fights both inside the Democratic Party and inside the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party. But first the news.

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Speaker 2: So, Molly, the Democrats have kept South Carolina for its

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Speaker 2: first primary of the twenty twenty eight election cycle. This

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Speaker 2: has many people on the left side of things quite

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Speaker 2: bad because they say, we're never going to win a

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Speaker 2: state South Carolina. This largely gives it advantage to more

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Speaker 2: centrist views in a time where populism is being argued.

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Speaker 2: What do you see it here?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think some of this is because there

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Speaker 1: were some there were Iowa had that caucus situation, remember that.

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Speaker 2: I would argue I had a few caucous situations that

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Speaker 2: have been a little weird.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And so it used to be what was it?

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Speaker 1: It was Iowa, and then New Hampshire, New Hampshire and

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Speaker 1: then South Carolina. I mean, I would argue that Iowa

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Speaker 1: nor New Hampshire are necessarily more liberal than South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the reason to do South Carolina first is

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Speaker 1: because it has the largest population of black voters in

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Speaker 1: the primary contest. It may not forever, but for now.

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Speaker 1: And so, you know, you have a certain group that

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Speaker 1: has the you know, is really speaks to the Democratic base.

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Speaker 1: Now there's a real conflict here with Nevada, which has

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Speaker 1: also a lot of Hispanic voters, which is also a

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Speaker 1: big group. And there's a big discussion right now in

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Speaker 1: democratic politics, which is this idea that is having a

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Speaker 1: populist but lefty message the way to win the midterms

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Speaker 1: or is twenty twenty six the year of the Mighty

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Speaker 1: Cheryls or is it the year of the Zorians? And

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Speaker 1: the answer is we don't know. But there are some

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Speaker 1: primaries that are really making a lot of people nervous.

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Speaker 1: And now there's a theory of the case. There are

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Speaker 1: two different theories. The case one is you alienate the left,

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Speaker 1: they stay home, you lose. The other theory of the

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Speaker 1: case and you could you could look at the twenty

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Speaker 1: four cycle and say, wow, Harris campaigned with Cheney. Cheney's

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Speaker 1: for No One, alienated the left and they stay home. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you could make that case. But you could also say, like,

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Speaker 1: these lefty candidates can't win because they can and went

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Speaker 1: over the middle, and most of the voters are in

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Speaker 1: the middle. I'm just giving both sides of this argument here.

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Speaker 1: So you have a left that feels that the center

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Speaker 1: is patronizing and and is discounting candidates who really do

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Speaker 1: and again, this the original sin here is twenty sixteen. Right.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I agree with this because I

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Speaker 1: don't know, but a lot of people think that Bernie

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Speaker 1: could have won and he would have tapped into this populism.

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Speaker 1: And so because Hillary was more of a candidate that

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Speaker 1: was sort of smoothed over, and that there was a

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Speaker 1: sense that she had squandered this economic populism. I don't

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Speaker 1: know the answer, but that's where this comes from.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think that there's an interesting thing here that

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Speaker 2: we're going to finally see an experiment played out that

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Speaker 2: a lot of people have discussed. You know, there's this

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Speaker 2: like Thomas Frank thought that like you know, every time

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Speaker 2: we've ever nominated a candidate that doesn't excite the left. Now,

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Speaker 2: you could say Barack Obama governed as a centrist, but

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Speaker 2: he was perceived by the left as one of them

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Speaker 2: when he was elected, and that any time we don't

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Speaker 2: have that at least illusion up that we lose as

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Speaker 2: a party. Now, one of the more interesting things is

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Speaker 2: we have this governor's race in Wisconsin, then we have

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Speaker 2: this primary for the Senate in Michigan, both states that

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Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders has won very overwhelmingly, been very very popular in.

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Speaker 2: And to take it back to the South Carolina thing,

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Speaker 2: I think one of the funniest things about this South

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Speaker 2: Carolina debate is South Carolina is the great tragedy for

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Speaker 2: Bernie Rose because Bertie had all this momentum in the

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Speaker 2: primaries and then he gets to South Carolina and buy

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Speaker 2: it and trounces. So it's a very like triggering event

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Speaker 2: to then say South Carolina is going to be so

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Speaker 2: even more important to the left. So but I think

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Speaker 2: the most interesting thing we'll see with this primary, particularly

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Speaker 2: with Hiley Stephen's abdu old Francesca Han versus Mandela Barnes,

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Speaker 2: is if they both get the nomination, which it looks

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Speaker 2: like they're gonna does the populism beat out this thing.

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Speaker 2: Hailey Stevens has underperformed in nearly every election she's been in.

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Speaker 2: Alissa slock Can underperformed as well, and there are a

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Speaker 2: lot of people on the left are making the argument,

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Speaker 2: let's try something else since you all say it. Abdul

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Speaker 2: does consistently beat Mike Rogers in the polling, whereas does not.

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Speaker 1: But if Alyssa Slacken one, then when that make the case.

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Speaker 2: But she underperformed the tick. That's what they argue. She

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Speaker 2: barely won. And so they're basically saying like, we try

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Speaker 2: this all the time, and in a cycle where there's

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Speaker 2: gonna be all this money and a better candidate Alyssa

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Speaker 2: slock Can. I'm more saying other people's arguments. I don't

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Speaker 2: actually know this to be the case because I'm not

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Speaker 2: paying attention to Michigan on my day, right, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I think what's going to be interesting is whether any

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Speaker 2: of us like it or not. It does look like

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Speaker 2: doctor Abduall said and Forrancesca Hang will be the nominees

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Speaker 2: if the polls are to be believed.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you're a little close to the doctor Saide situation.

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Speaker 1: I like him too, but I also think the conversation

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Speaker 1: we're having here, and why I want wanted to include

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Speaker 1: this in the podcast is because I think it's a

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Speaker 1: conversation that a lot of Democrats are happening right, which

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Speaker 1: is can a bold progressive when in a state that's

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Speaker 1: not New York, right, New York City is really a

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Speaker 1: different story than a state like Wisconsin. And so because

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Speaker 1: remember Wisconsin is a very split state. New York is

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Speaker 1: a very blue state. New York City is very blue,

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Speaker 1: and New York City has this history of having socialists,

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Speaker 1: you know, not for you know, decades, but they had

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Speaker 1: a lot of socialist leaders in New York City. So

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure that this works. Look, there is a

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Speaker 1: real tension here, and I think it's worth talking about.

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Speaker 1: You know. There was this Elon Musk interview in The

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Speaker 1: Economist today and the editor in chief of The Economist,

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Speaker 1: a woman called Zandy. She's really smart, and it was

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Speaker 1: I thought, a really interesting interview. I do not align

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Speaker 1: with her politically, and The Economist is much more conservative

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Speaker 1: than my values. But what she said, which again I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure is right, but is an interesting thing to

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Speaker 1: hear is that she said, because you know, Elon is

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Speaker 1: saying we're going to have all this. You know, he's

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Speaker 1: saying his usual happy talk, right that we're going to

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Speaker 1: everyone's going to be as rich as they as he is,

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Speaker 1: and money's not going to matter, and da da da,

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Speaker 1: We're going to have universal basic income because of AI

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Speaker 1: and and she said, you know, it seems much more

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Speaker 1: likely that we're going to have revolution and a lot

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Speaker 1: of regulation on technology, and maybe that will hurt the

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Speaker 1: economy because people are really really angry. And I thought

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Speaker 1: it was an interesting thing to see interviewers at magazine

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Speaker 1: editors tend to be in the elite, and to have

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Speaker 1: a member of the elite trying to explain to another

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Speaker 1: member of the elite the richest man in the world.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just a different version of the elite, right, how.

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Speaker 1: The rest of the world feels. And we're certainly seeing

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Speaker 1: that when we see polls and when we see people

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Speaker 1: just talking about politics in the normal world. So there

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Speaker 1: really is a tension here, which is like the pendulum

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Speaker 1: is going to swing back, and the question is how

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Speaker 1: far and how hard, And in my mind, I'm not

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Speaker 1: so ideologically fixated on it if they can put in

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Speaker 1: things that work for people. My worry is that they can't.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I worry that the Adam Curis Curtis indictment of

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Speaker 2: this is that we have no one who's really showing

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Speaker 2: a vision for how we go forward that argues it compellingly.

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Speaker 2: That btal concerns that that gives way to our worst

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Speaker 2: and sticks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, so that's where we are at this moment,

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of like we're like a little

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Speaker 1: bit more than one hundred days before the primers for

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Speaker 1: the midterms. I'm sorry, and we're almost done with the primers,

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Speaker 1: So we're going to learn a lot of really interesting

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Speaker 1: stuff from these midterms. But I do think we'll learn

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Speaker 1: a lot. I think if Republicans were normal, this wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be so high stakes. But the fact that Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: though exhausted and quite old and very unpopular, he still

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Speaker 1: wants to do things to our elections that are at

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Speaker 1: best illegal.

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Speaker 2: Yes, let's move the discussion to your friend who you're

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Speaker 2: a big fan of. You're always replying to him on

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Speaker 2: social media RFK Junior. Yes, so we now have measles

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Speaker 2: at their thirty five year high and silosporasis outbreak is

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Speaker 2: now in nine states. I have a friend in a group, Chad,

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Speaker 2: who believes they have had it, and it sounds absolutely terrible.

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Speaker 1: Again, r FK Junior is disaster for this job. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, well this virus, this Trump diarrhea, saying

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Speaker 1: it's making a lot of people real sick. And we

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Speaker 1: got r FK going all in on peptides.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're selling the peptides at the is now, Malia.

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Speaker 1: Have you gotten any so exactly. So RFK has gone

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Speaker 1: completely all in on peptides and has decided the government

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Speaker 1: should not make it so people can't get peptides, can't

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Speaker 1: you know. Basically what's happened is that Republicans have cut

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Speaker 1: surveillance for viruses like this and environmental contaminants, and so

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Speaker 1: these things are just getting people sick and large numbers

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Speaker 1: and they don't have the tracing. So for example, we

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Speaker 1: were told.

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Speaker 3: That this all came from this farm in Ohio or

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Speaker 3: something that was tied to Taco Bell, but now we're

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Speaker 3: learning that it might be you know, the fact that

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Speaker 3: there's more states and more people getting sick and means

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Speaker 3: that the surveillance technology is not working so well.

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Speaker 1: This administration is very good at surveilling people who are protesting.

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Speaker 1: They are not so good at surveilling things that make

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Speaker 1: you sick.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So we have a chewing report from a former

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Speaker 2: correspondent at sixty minutes about just how absolutely propaganda awaiting

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Speaker 2: Barry Weiss his coverages over at CBS, of what she's

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Speaker 2: forcing on reporters.

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Speaker 1: This is this fired sixty minutes correspondent and Celia Vega,

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Speaker 1: she's a first Hispanic correspondent for sixty minutes and she

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Speaker 1: was basically immediately fired when Barry Weiss got in there.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, like this reminds me of Hegsdeth

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Speaker 1: refusing to promote women and people of color. They're like,

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Speaker 1: we're anti anti racism. Like, no, you're just racist. It's

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Speaker 1: not anti anti racism, it's just racism. And so she

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Speaker 1: claims that the new CBS News, including Weiss and David Ellison,

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Speaker 1: asked her report on events that never happened and had

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Speaker 1: pushed her in her team to include claims and stories

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Speaker 1: that they were unable to verify. So she talked to

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Speaker 1: this ABC News correspondent at the National Association of Hispanic

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Speaker 1: Journalists in New Orleans. And by the way, this is

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Speaker 1: a good story by status. He's coming on next week,

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Speaker 1: I think, and he's done. Really that newsletter is really

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Speaker 1: really good. So she said that in her coverage following

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Speaker 1: the fatal shootings in January twenty six of Renee Good

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Speaker 1: and Alex Pretty, she was encouraged by CBS News executives

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Speaker 1: to include videos at protesters assaulting people they believed were

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Speaker 1: undercover ICE agents. Vega and her team searched for evidence

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Speaker 1: of that, but found no credible evidence. Again, like you

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Speaker 1: really do see how MAGA influencers work. Like. In addition,

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Speaker 1: Vega said she was asked to include an excerpt from

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Speaker 1: Minneapolis Mayor James Frice comments at a press conference that

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Speaker 1: he wanted the police to fight Ice enforcement immigration policies,

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Speaker 1: but it turns out there was no comments like that. Again,

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Speaker 1: this is the thing. Look, CBS had very high reporting standards,

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Speaker 1: and that was why a lot of people trusted it.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't have those standards anymore, clearly, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of people don't trust it anymore. And that is I think,

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Speaker 1: ultimately the problem that a lot of these news outlets

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Speaker 1: are having. It's like, once you lose that credibility, you

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Speaker 1: can't get it back. So there's no way to put

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Speaker 1: the genie back in the bottle. And that's what we

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Speaker 1: have here, is we have people from CBS coming out

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Speaker 1: and telling the world that the boss of CBS, Barry Wise,

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Speaker 1: who a lot of people are friends with her. I

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Speaker 1: met her a bunch of times. She seems perfectly fine,

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Speaker 1: but she has a serious ideological bent that she's trying

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Speaker 1: to bend what is straight news too. And look, there

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Speaker 1: are certainly I work at a news outlet that is

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Speaker 1: on the opinion side. I write on the opinion side.

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Speaker 1: Being on the opinion side means having a stronger ideological

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Speaker 1: bent than being on the news side. Why people liked

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Speaker 1: CBS was because CBS really was careful to keep its

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Speaker 1: news clean and to try as much as possible to

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Speaker 1: tell non partisan stories in a non partisan way. That's over.

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Speaker 1: Charlie Sykes is the author of the Newsletter to the

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Speaker 1: Contrary and the book How the Right Lost Its Mind. Welcome, Welcome,

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Speaker 1: Charlie Sykes.

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Speaker 4: It is good to be back.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump finds himself in a never ending war in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, kind of ironic that Donald Trump doesn't turn out

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Speaker 5: to be the great war planner that he thought. You know,

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Speaker 5: he thought this was going to be over in a day.

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Speaker 5: And I think the extraordinary thing is when you run

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Speaker 5: down all the times that he and Pete Heggsath have

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Speaker 5: said the war is over, the enemy's obliterated, they have

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Speaker 5: nothing left, we can leave, and yet here we are

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Speaker 5: in a widening, escalating war that he can't figure out.

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Speaker 5: And by the way, so if you're the Iranians, you

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Speaker 5: have to be thinking, should we cut up peace deal

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Speaker 5: with Donald Trump? Why? Why would they do that? At

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Speaker 5: this point, I was.

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Speaker 1: Watching this video of Marco Rubio saying, Wow, the Iranians

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Speaker 1: keep asking us for a deal. They're different foreign ministers

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Speaker 1: keep talking to keep saying that they want a deal.

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Speaker 1: That's what he was saying to reporters, and he said,

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Speaker 1: I can't tell you. It seems like there's so much bluffing.

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Speaker 1: And then also sort of the offers of big payoffs.

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Speaker 1: I mean that Trump, when Trump was like hot to

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Speaker 1: make peace two weeks ago, when he's thought that this

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Speaker 1: would affect the midterms, would clearly well, he made all

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Speaker 1: these offers to the Iranians and they turn him down.

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Speaker 5: Right, Okay, this isn't actually an interesting point because in

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump's world, He just assumes that everyone has a

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Speaker 5: price right, that everybody is transactional, and he appears to

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Speaker 5: be genuinely shocked to find out that the Mullah's may

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Speaker 5: have a different set of incentives. And also he seems

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Speaker 5: genuinely shocked that having on day one assassinated the Supreme

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Speaker 5: Leader of Iran, his wife, the dog family, of all

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Speaker 5: of them, their dogs, who knows he assassinated all of them?

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Speaker 5: Genuinely surprised. Well, I'm going to give them a lot

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Speaker 5: of money, right, shouldn't they be our friends? So the

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Speaker 5: memorandum of Understanding that Donald Trump was so excited about,

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Speaker 5: remember he actually signed it at Versailles in front of

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Speaker 5: all the allies rallies.

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Speaker 1: Versailles I known for a place where great signingsreaties.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well it turns out to be the Memorandum of Misunderstanding.

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Speaker 5: But I have to say there's also a pattern out there,

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Speaker 5: and that the Saudi Arabians just discovered this that if

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Speaker 5: you make a deal and a treaty with Donald Trump,

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Speaker 5: the art of his deal is only what he thinks

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Speaker 5: it is on any given day, so that you can

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Speaker 5: sit down, negotiate a deal, sign and seal the deal.

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump wakes up, sees somebody on Twitter and changes

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Speaker 5: the deal. Canada has discovered that, that Ukraine has discovered that,

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Speaker 5: and so the Iranians are going, we can we even

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Speaker 5: trust this guy to stick to any deal that we

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Speaker 5: give him, especially since.

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Speaker 4: He killed our supreme leader.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and I think that's a really important point. And remember,

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Speaker 1: so the Saudi's had thought they were going to get nukes,

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Speaker 1: which is a bit ironic because we're bombing the Iranians

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Speaker 1: because they may or may not, they probably don't have nukes,

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Speaker 1: but to prevent them from getting nukes. But we're going

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Speaker 1: to give nukes to MBS who has you know, jailed

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Speaker 1: and or murdered numerous people, including an American or American journalists,

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Speaker 1: right because.

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Speaker 5: Shows Prince bonesaw.

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Speaker 4: I mean, what go wrong?

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Speaker 5: You know, right, give that guy bone sauce.

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Speaker 1: But it turns out that even that guy does not

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Speaker 1: get a good negotiation from Trump.

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Speaker 5: I find this fast. I mean, I really do think

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Speaker 5: this is fascinating, the fact that I mean, first of all,

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Speaker 5: it was breathtaking that he cuts this deal with Saudi

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Speaker 5: Arabia while we're at war theoretically about nuclear proliferation, because

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Speaker 5: what could possibly go wrong if Saudi Arabia, the home

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Speaker 5: of the nine to eleven hijackers. J Jacker, what, I

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Speaker 5: never get a nuclear weapon?

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Speaker 1: So do you fund the nine to eleven hijackers?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 5: There, you know, Americans are able to sue them.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 5: Congress passed the bill back in twenty sixteen allowing the

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Speaker 5: families to sue Saudi Arabia for their role in that.

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Speaker 5: But anyway, so it was stunning that he comes up

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Speaker 5: with this deal clearly blind sides Israel and everyone else.

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Speaker 5: For more than a decade, Saudi Arabia has wanted to

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Speaker 5: have this civilian nuclear capability. Okay, for more than a decade.

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Speaker 5: US policy on both both Biden and the Trump administration was, okay,

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Speaker 5: if this is your number one ask, our number one

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Speaker 5: ask is going to be that you recognize Israel as

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Speaker 5: part of some sort of, you know, a piece deal.

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump just completely ignores that, reverses a decade of

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Speaker 5: US policy, signs this deal that nobody can really fully understand,

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Speaker 5: and then literally the next day says, oh wait, the

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Speaker 5: dog ate my homework. I forgot to include that in

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Speaker 5: the deal. There's no deal unless they do it, which.

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Speaker 1: Is normalizing relations with Israel. And then they said, right,

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Speaker 1: They said, well, only normalize relationships with Israel if Israel

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Speaker 1: creates Palestine, and Israel was like, we're trying to destroy Palestine.

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Speaker 5: So sorry, well that's pretty much it. Yeah, it's a

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Speaker 5: I mean, look, the regime is relatively entrenched. I'm'm trying

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Speaker 5: to think where I saw this that Apparently at one

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Speaker 5: point NBS told the late Lindsay Graham, if I were

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Speaker 5: ever to normalize relations with Israel without having a Palaestinian state,

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Speaker 5: the people would drag me through the streets, right, So

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Speaker 5: so that was never going to happen. So do we

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Speaker 5: have a deal or not? I'm bringing this up in

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Speaker 5: the And by the way, the Canadians are also discovering

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Speaker 5: that any trade deal you make with Donald Trump is

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Speaker 5: good only until he changes his mind. So this creates

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Speaker 5: the problem, how do you get out of this war

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Speaker 5: with Iran when the whole world and especially the Iranians

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Speaker 5: will not trust anything that you agree to. So, you know,

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Speaker 5: we not only have this expanding quagmire, but it's become

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump's options for getting out are shrinking almost by

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Speaker 5: the day. And by the way, I don't know about you,

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Speaker 5: I just assumed that he would declare victory and leave

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Speaker 5: you go and invade Cuba, right, I mean, Donald Trump,

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Speaker 5: we won. There's nothing there yea nothing to say I have.

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Speaker 5: This is the big liest victory in history. They have

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Speaker 5: no uranium dust. Let's go invade Cuba. And yet here

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Speaker 5: we are death toll rising, you know, impact on the

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Speaker 5: world economy not yet fully felt, but looming. Bond market

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Speaker 5: is flashing warnings, gas prices are surging. They're going to

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Speaker 5: get worse. Donald Trump himself said he would be Herbert Hoover.

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Speaker 1: And yet, yeah, that wasn't grace.

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Speaker 5: We're doing this? Where's we are doing this?

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Speaker 1: What was that thing where Trump said he was going

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Speaker 1: to be Herbert Hoover. Someone must have explained to him

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Speaker 1: about the gas prices, right.

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Speaker 4: Well, I was shocked. I was shocked, and knew about

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Speaker 4: her Hoover.

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Speaker 5: No, that that was in the context of the war,

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Speaker 5: saying that that we needed to have this memorandum of understanding,

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Speaker 5: this non peace deal because otherwise his phrase the war

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Speaker 5: might lead to global economic catastrophe, and that he did

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Speaker 5: not want to be remembered as the president that led

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Speaker 5: us into a depression. And then suddenly it's like, okay, well,

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Speaker 5: never mind.

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Speaker 1: You know, what's interesting about this is that these tariffs

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Speaker 1: that they put on, these fifty percents, they're from the

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Speaker 1: smooth Holly age, and they're from a nineteen thirties smooth

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Speaker 1: Holly section of the triff code that chefs get right,

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Speaker 1: that was put on to help America get out of

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Speaker 1: the depression, but is actually blamed for making the depression worse.

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Speaker 5: You know, I'm glad you pointed this out now again,

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Speaker 5: I assume that the savvy listeners of this podcast will

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Speaker 5: know that smooth Holly is notorious as one of the

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Speaker 5: worst economic decisions ever made by the United States government,

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Speaker 5: widely blamed for deepening and extending the Great Depression. And

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Speaker 5: for some reason, this never got through Donald Trump's head

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Speaker 5: that Okay, we tried this before, massive tariffs that backfired.

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Speaker 5: But now he's actually going back to the word. I mean,

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Speaker 5: here's a guy that you know, ran for president by

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Speaker 5: going back into the thirties, you know, with America first,

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Speaker 5: and now he's going back to the late twenties and

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Speaker 5: early thirties for protectionist smooth Holly. And again, none of

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Speaker 5: us seems to be working out particularly well for him.

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Speaker 1: But it's also like these tariffs were struck down by

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. The administration had to pay back a

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Speaker 1: lot of them. So what is the thinking here, Like

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Speaker 1: he's going to do it again and the Supreme Court's

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Speaker 1: going to I mean, maybe there's more of a legal

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Speaker 1: like to stand on.

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Speaker 5: Well, okay, so I'm not an expert. I will defer

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Speaker 5: to what Justin Wolfer said about this. You know, it's

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Speaker 5: like packaging, but it's the same rotten deal that this

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Speaker 5: may actually be a legal workaround using a different law

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Speaker 5: to impose it, but the economic effects will still be

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Speaker 5: the same. So I mean their thinking is we're going

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Speaker 5: we're not actually defying the Supreme Court. We found another

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Speaker 5: legal president, which is why they're willing to go back

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Speaker 5: into the nineteen thirties to do all of this, but

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Speaker 5: the economic impact is going to be the same as

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Speaker 5: well as Again, the Canadians are sitting there going wait,

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Speaker 5: we thought that we had a trade deal with the

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Speaker 5: United States, and up until now many of the things

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Speaker 5: covered by that trade deal were exempted from his tariffs,

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Speaker 5: and now Trump is saying no. So we go back

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Speaker 5: to this major theme, who can make a deal with

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump anymore? I mean, at what point do people

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Speaker 5: realize you cannot. You know, the art of Trump's deal

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Speaker 5: is whatever works for Donald Trump moment to moment, So

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Speaker 5: this is a long term implications.

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Speaker 1: And the other thing is that this was all supposed

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Speaker 1: to onshore manufacturing, which we're two years into this thing

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Speaker 1: and no manufacturing has been on shore.

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Speaker 2: Isn't that interesting?

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Speaker 5: I mean, this is these This is an interesting chart

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Speaker 5: because in theory, you know, Liberation Day should have unleashed

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Speaker 5: this great expansion of US manufacturing, right that has not

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Speaker 5: happened at all.

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Speaker 1: No, I mean, it's just a very it's interesting to

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Speaker 1: me that because there's no one around him to talk

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Speaker 1: sense into him, right with the exception of me be

434
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: Susie Wiles, But it's not even clear. There's never a

435
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 1: moment where Trump goes like, oh, I guess I have

436
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: to change course.

437
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,479
Speaker 5: Well, look, you've you've been watching Trump for years as

438
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 5: long as I have. There was an I apologize if

439
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 5: I'm repeating myself here, but he used to have kind

440
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 5: of this reptilian instinct for public opinion and what played.

441
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 5: He seems very tone deaf to me right now, and

442
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 5: I think this is kind of the you know, we

443
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 5: talk about the authoritarian playbook, Well, the authoritarian Achilles heel,

444
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 5: and there's you're a dissy, you know, your your odyssey

445
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 5: reference is the fact that you get rid of all

446
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 5: of the adults in the room, all of the experts,

447
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 5: all the people with experience, all the people who can

448
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 5: tell you know, and you surround yourself with the loyalists

449
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 5: and the chodes and you know, the s men, And

450
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 5: time and time again they don't. They will never tell

451
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 5: him this is a bad idea, this will play out badly,

452
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 5: and so all of his worst instincts have been liberated

453
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 5: as a Pandora's box of all of Donald Trump's darker.

454
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: Id It strikes me that like basically this whole second

455
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: term has been like self perpetuating crisis to suffer, you know,

456
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 1: like the he does something stupid, he gets in trouble,

457
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 1: he tries to invade Greenland, Europe gets mad at him,

458
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: he tries to you know, just at every point he

459
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 1: invades Iran, he can't get out, He tries to pay

460
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,120
Speaker 1: them off. They say no, Like what do you think,

461
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 1: Like what happens? You think this just keeps going until

462
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: he runs into something he that is presidency ending, or

463
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: that Democrats stop him or I mean, who.

464
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 5: Knows, who knows, But I mean, I think he's going

465
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 5: to continue it until you mentioned, until he comes up

466
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 5: against something that where it doesn't work. And I think

467
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 5: that's kind of you know, it's happened in a couple

468
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 5: of areas. You know, he thought that Iran would roll over,

469
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 5: like it would be like Venezuela or like other countries.

470
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 4: Well they're they're not.

471
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 5: Europe is not. He tried to intimidate and bully the pope.

472
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 5: The Pope is not backing off. And I do wonder

473
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 5: if and again, you know, he's done a lot of damage.

474
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 5: He will continue to do a lot of damag. I

475
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 5: think he becomes more dangerous over time. But you know

476
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 5: the fact is that a Donald Trump with a thirty

477
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 5: four percent approval rating doesn't scare people the way he

478
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 5: was scaring people in civil society a year ago. So

479
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 5: I do feel a shift. And I'm not trying to

480
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 5: be irrationally exuberant, but something is different. There's more willingness

481
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 5: to push back.

482
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: But I want, okay, agreed, and also I want to

483
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: believe that desperately. But Donald Trump has this shitty approval rating.

484
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 1: He's like Carter without the loveliness, right, But and he's

485
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: got inflation. I mean, he's got a lot of the

486
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: Carter like symptoms. And then but except they're all self

487
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 1: perpetuated versus Carter, who sort of wandered into them more

488
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: or less. But I just wonder there's some self but

489
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: not quite the same way. All of these Republican senators

490
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 1: have legitimately lost their jobs because of him, corn and

491
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 1: Cassidy and till Us, So why are we not seeing

492
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 1: more like those Blanche? Those Todd Blanche hearings were a

493
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: real opportunity there for especially Cornan is on the committee,

494
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 1: and so is Tillis. Tillis made Blanche meet with the victims. But,

495
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: like I have been surprised that there hasn't been more

496
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 1: conservative pushback to any of this.

497
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 5: I want to say, this is the ultimate test, but

498
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 5: there have been so many ultimate tests and they failed

499
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 5: them all up until now. But this is black and white.

500
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 5: I don't think there's anyone who has been, as you know,

501
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 5: clearly unsuited for this job as Todd Blanche. The analogy

502
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 5: that I use, and I've floated it out a couple

503
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 5: of times, is that voting for Todd Blanche now with

504
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 5: everything that he's done with the Epstein cover up, with

505
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 5: the slush funds, with the weaponization of the Department of Justice,

506
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 5: with the loss of sixteen thousand lawyers. This would be

507
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 5: like the United States Senate voting to confirm Richard Nixon's

508
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 5: Attorney General John Mitchell after Watergate, after all of their

509
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 5: scandals are going. They were okay because if you vote

510
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 5: for Todd Blanche, you were embracing all of it, all

511
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 5: of what's happened, what they're doing now, and also what

512
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 5: Donald Trump might use the Department of Justice to do

513
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 5: in the future to overturn future elections, the midterms and

514
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 5: the twenty twenty eight elections. So I look, I don't

515
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 5: understand what Tillis is waiting for, what Cornyan is waiting for.

516
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 5: They have nothing to lose politically, And my understanding is

517
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,479
Speaker 5: the Blanche would actually probably stay on his acting Attorney general, right,

518
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 5: but at least it would show that the Republic that

519
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 5: some Republicans still have a soul.

520
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, is questionable.

521
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: Do you see that Elon Musk interview and can we

522
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 1: talk about it forty seconds?

523
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 5: Yes, Well, I've seen excerpts of it, and I was

524
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 5: reminded again of what a difference a really, really good

525
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 5: interviewer will make somebody who is willing to push back

526
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 5: on the blather and the bullshit. These bridge bish interviewers

527
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 5: just they bring something completely different. And I have to

528
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 5: say that to think that Elon Musk is one of

529
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 5: the richest, most powerful men in the world, who will,

530
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 5: you know, shape the fate of millions is really I

531
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 5: don't want to say terrifying, because my actual reaction is nauseating.

532
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, because he was really exposed. What did you think?

533
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 3: I mean?

534
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: So, I have so many interesting feelings about the econ

535
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: I read the Economist. I'm like a regular Economist super

536
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: fan if that's even though I'm much more lefty than

537
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: the economists. And a lot of times I'll read the

538
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 1: some of the editorials and I will like be like, uh,

539
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 1: you know, like they'll you know, there'll be all these

540
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: editorials that'll be like America has got you know, not

541
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 1: having regulation correct, you know, unlike Europe with its slow

542
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: you know, I dream about European level regulation. So I'm

543
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: always like, yeah, you know, they're like Europe with its

544
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: slow regulation and it's you know, economy killing you know whatever.

545
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 1: You know, they're mad that they have us, you know,

546
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,239
Speaker 1: all of these pensions and all the things that are

547
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: like my fantasy for America. So I'm always very conflicted.

548
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: But I like the editor in chief, Zandy, very much,

549
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: and I think she's very very smart. And what I

550
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 1: was struck by was, first of all, it's clear that

551
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 1: Elon Musk does not read The Economist, because if he did,

552
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: he would understand that this is a person who actually

553
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 1: very much wants to like him. There were two things

554
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: I thought found really interesting. I would listen to the

555
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: whole it's two and a half. I mean it's long,

556
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: but in it two things were really interesting. One was

557
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 1: she says, you know, you cut USA and all these

558
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 1: people died, and he said, zero people died. Zero people died. Okay,

559
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: zero people did not die, obviously, But then he said,

560
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 1: there are all these angos and McKinsey, Bezos or the

561
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: Gates Foundation could have come in if they had cared

562
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 1: and fixed it, which I thought was an insane thing

563
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: for the richest man in the world to say. And

564
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: then the other thing was at the end, she says,

565
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: you know, all these people hate you. You know, why

566
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: do you think that is, which is a ballsy kind

567
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: of interview question, and he says, well, many more people

568
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 1: hate you than hate me, and then her no, she said,

569
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: many more people don't know who the fuck I am.

570
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, well exactly, but what do you think I mean?

571
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 1: It struck me that, like, this is a person who

572
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: controls so much of American life and he's like kind

573
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: of a mess.

574
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 4: He's very much a mess.

575
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 5: And this has been known as well, even though Trump

576
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 5: White House seemed to know that they had a Kedemine

577
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 5: addict on their hands. I thought the exchange where she

578
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 5: is pressing him like you have been saying you think that,

579
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 5: you know, the United Kingdom is on the brink of

580
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 5: a race war or a civil war, and he says yes,

581
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 5: and she says something like I'm paraphrasing this. When is

582
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 5: the last time you were actually in you know, the

583
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 5: UK a few years ago? And she says, well, I

584
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 5: lived there, and none of this, none of what you're

585
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 5: saying is true. London is, you know, is a much

586
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 5: safer city.

587
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 4: And it was.

588
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 5: It was the challenging him on it that and and

589
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 5: and and part of the frustration with Elon Musk is

590
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 5: that if it was anyone else other than Elon Musk,

591
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 5: no one would take him seriously because of the the

592
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 5: incredible insanity, but also the viriul and bigotry and the

593
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 5: racism which is not mediated in any way whatsoever. I mean,

594
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,479
Speaker 5: his obsession with now he's what he's claiming, He's going

595
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 5: to remake the Odyssey in a year. Why well, because

596
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 5: because the world needs and what a Helen who is

597
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 5: not you know, a black Well And this is this

598
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 5: is the mind of Elon Musk, And I guess I

599
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 5: actually do think that we are going to reach a

600
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 5: tipping point. And I don't know, you know, yeah, it's

601
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 5: at some point where, if you know, when people realize

602
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 5: the concentration of power in the hands of people like

603
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 5: Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and Jeff Bezos and people who

604
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 5: the more you listen to them and pay attention to them,

605
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 5: you go, oh my god. And yet we're going to

606
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 5: be living in their world. So I know there's going

607
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 5: to be a major pushback against there's already a major

608
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 5: pushback against It maybe seem like a digression, but you know,

609
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 5: AI data centers and the new technology. I think that's

610
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,800
Speaker 5: all going to be wrapped up in the bubble of

611
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 5: what is what are they doing to the world. What's

612
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 5: going to happen? And if these guys are the faces

613
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 5: of this dangerous world destroying technology, then we shouldn't be

614
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 5: surprised if there's kind of a revolt against that.

615
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: Well, and that's and because it was the economist, she

616
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: was like, you know, we could have socialism, and I

617
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: was like, don't tread me with a good time. You know.

618
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 1: They were like, we could have regulation and socialism and

619
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 1: kill business and he was like, oh, that would never happen.

620
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 5: But yeah, well these things that backlashes.

621
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: That's right.

622
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 5: Thank you, Thank you.

623
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: Dave Weigel is a reporter. It's end for welcome. Welcome Dave.

624
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 4: It's good to be here.

625
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 1: Thank you. It's so funny because I've been on so

626
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: many panels talking about the midterms, and I know a

627
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 1: lot of stuff, but I feel like you know a

628
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 1: lot more than I do. So i'd love you to

629
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 1: talk about because there's so many interesting stories evolving from

630
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: these midterms. One of the things that I'm struck by

631
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: is we're seeing Democrats way ahead in some states that

632
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 1: they shouldn't be and struggling in states that should be

633
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,919
Speaker 1: a lock, you know, And i'd love you to talk

634
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 1: about sort of what you think the landscape looks like

635
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 1: right now from this sort of fifty thousand foot view.

636
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 4: First, I'm always has a to compare things to prior

637
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: election cycles. I just think it was doable. I think

638
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 4: maybe nineteen eighty six to eighty two, things like that,

639
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 4: But there's too much change in between elections right now.

640
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 4: I'm not just talking about the maps, but just the

641
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 4: way that information has transmitted. The historical thing. I will

642
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 4: say Robins' best position for a second midterm election of

643
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 4: a relicant president and maybe ever maybe it's going to

644
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 4: help boolage or something. But it's been a while because

645
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 4: they have won the judgments they wanted at the Supreme Court.

646
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 4: They have a very in financing system. Well, I'm saying

647
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 4: a couple of things they got hale from the Supreme Court,

648
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,879
Speaker 4: which they've been able to buffer their margin by five

649
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 4: seats with that accounting right Tennessee. In between all the lawsuits,

650
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 4: five succeeds and then a couple more in Texas. The

651
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 4: money is going their way. They've won favorable judgments, they're

652
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 4: able to coordinate committees spending with candidate spending, and so

653
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 4: the advantaged Democrats had had since two thousand and eighteen. Really,

654
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 4: the Democratic advantage of small donors funding their candidates and

655
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,280
Speaker 4: robins is not catching up. That's going to be mitigated.

656
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 4: And you don't see a lot of Republican excitement, small

657
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 4: dollar Republican excitement about their candidates the cycle. You're not

658
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 4: see even for Ken Paxton, who is the most mag

659
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 4: of the candidates running for Senate. You're not seeing Republicans

660
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 4: tarrow Fox say I love that guy and give them money.

661
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 4: You're seeing House candidates who have had the time. House

662
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 4: incumbents on their side are more competitive, but Democrats are

663
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 4: raise the money. They just know that a bunch is

664
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 4: going to come in the last minute. So all that

665
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 4: to say, Democrats had the advantage, but not a huge

666
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 4: advantage like in twenty eighteen. And things tend to break

667
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:45,720
Speaker 4: closer to the election After Labor Day, the Iran decision

668
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 4: of Trump twin to attack Iran made it less likely

669
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 4: that Republicans will survived the all all of the trends

670
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 4: to order Democrats. But the Democrats are not in an

671
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: amazing position. They're doing what they need to win the

672
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 4: House narrowly right now. And if we're talking twenty ten,

673
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 4: I'd say Republicans are doing what they need to win

674
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 4: the House pretty comfortably, not win sixty something seats. Things

675
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 4: could break if you are looking at everything Trump does

676
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 4: and saying, how can the country possibly put up with this?

677
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 1: What?

678
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 4: Most of the country is opening up with it, But

679
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 4: most of the country is not super excited to elect Democrats.

680
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 1: You're talking about something that's important here.

681
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 5: Now.

682
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 1: The d Generic has Democrats everywhere from eleven to two. Right,

683
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: I've seen every which I mean, there's a huge swath.

684
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 1: And again it is too early really to tell too,

685
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,760
Speaker 1: but I do think, like I would say, we're seeing

686
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: a lot of headwinds in the fact that there's like

687
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: gas is now Brent Krude is now over one hundred

688
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 1: dollars a gallon again, which means that means four dollars

689
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 1: five dollars gas, So and that is something the voters

690
00:38:56,080 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 1: are particularly struck by. But I just wonder, so structurally

691
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: Republicans are better off, but I also wonder there's this

692
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: pulling that talks about the enthusiasm gap, and you know,

693
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: Republicans are pulling poorly and Democrats are pulling poorly. Well,

694
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 1: that may be true. Democrats are still way more like

695
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 1: ten twelve points more enthusiastic than Republicans.

696
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 4: Yes, they're more enthusiastic. I'm glad you brought that up.

697
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 4: That's the most important thing, is that every piece of

698
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,800
Speaker 4: evidence that the Democrats really want to vote in these elections.

699
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 4: You saw it. Even this week we had Arizona's primaries

700
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 4: and Republicans had a contested GOV race at the top

701
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 4: of the ballot. Trump cant was going to win, but

702
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 4: it was contested. They had more contested statewide races, and

703
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 4: more Republicans voted, but the margin was much smaller than

704
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 4: it was four years ago and eight years ago. So

705
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 4: even in Arizona, which looked back towards Republicans, twenty twenty four,

706
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 4: every Democrat is voting. There are many ways to look

707
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 4: at the election. There's the tectonic shifts that happened very slowly.

708
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 4: I like to talk about basically the hour hand versus

709
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 4: the minihan, the second hand on the hour hand. Clearly

710
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 4: things have moved towards Democrats, and it's been tough for

711
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 4: Republicans to get their voters excited. They're hardcore based, sure,

712
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 4: they're excited getting locking in those voters who took a

713
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 4: chance on Trump and twenty twenty four, those voters are

714
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 4: looking more like the places where Barack Obama overperformed in

715
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 4: two thousand and eight. Okay, Indiana, Come oraway forever. Not really.

716
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 4: It was one election where it's a significant number of

717
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 4: conservative whites like Obama. Then they moved on. It's looking

718
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 4: a little bit more like that in South Texas. But

719
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 4: polling here is in its own story because what else

720
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 4: has changed the last couple of cycles. There's less high

721
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 4: quality public polling. Campaigns have their own polling, which they're

722
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 4: feeling pretty good about. They think they've invested better in this,

723
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 4: but they only release what shapes their narrative.

724
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 1: Right, and campaign polling is always yeah, they don't want

725
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 1: to lie, but there's a lot of do you want

726
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 1: exclusive to this poll.

727
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 4: It shows that after you tell everybody that our candidate

728
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 4: is incredible, and their Republican candidates of pedophile were up

729
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 4: by one point. That's not super useful. But so there

730
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 4: has not been a like a jail breaking against against Republicans,

731
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 4: and there's not really going to be a test to this.

732
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 4: There's not a special election coming up. There have been

733
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,320
Speaker 4: in twenty eighteen. One thing that came to Democrats' momentum

734
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 4: is there were a couple of replacement elections that showed, oh, okay,

735
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,959
Speaker 4: Democrats are turning everybody out. Republicans are struggling. Not really

736
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 4: this time.

737
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: I mean Democrats have overperformed in specials. There haven't been

738
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: recent ones, but they have.

739
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 4: They have generally, and it's been tough for Republicans to

740
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 4: turn their base out. And Trump is not always credible

741
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:28,919
Speaker 4: when he talks about how he's going to get people,

742
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,240
Speaker 4: how popular he is, how he's got people excited. Already.

743
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 4: I've heard more Democrats happy about that there's going to

744
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 4: be a Republican convention in Dallas because they think great

745
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 4: Republicans are going to be in Dallas and they're going

746
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 4: to tie themselves to Trump. But the issue is the

747
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 4: part their party is viewed less favorably than it was

748
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,720
Speaker 4: in twenty eighteen, and twenty eighteen is coming after Barack Obama.

749
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: I want to just pause for a second because I

750
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 1: want to get to this idea that Democrats are not

751
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: as popular, because that's definitely true. But I want to

752
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: first just go back for a minute and talk about

753
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 1: Trump as and his base. Because there was this statistic

754
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 1: that was in this political poell from two days ago

755
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: which said that one in five self proclaimed MAGA voters

756
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 1: want the war in Iran done tomorrow. And we see

757
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: Fox News also pushing that, So I think that's sort

758
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 1: of a surprising to May.

759
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 4: Yes, that is something that makes Democrats optimistic. And what

760
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 4: one of Republicans done because I was tone of the

761
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 4: hour hand, that's air end the second hand is just

762
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 4: like the daily news cycle. The last two weeks to

763
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 4: have been a story of Democrat division over Israel. I

764
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 4: wouldn't say that the distraction from the Rand story, but

765
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 4: but it kind of is that in key districts, the

766
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 4: primary will have been in states prime will have been over.

767
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: Be thinking about the Michigan Senate.

768
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 4: Well, I'm thinking about a lot of them. But they'll

769
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 4: have Democrats will have their nominees. There will be some

770
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 4: fighting about Israel, there'll be questions better, but generally Democrats,

771
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 4: more than they did even in twenty twenty two, much

772
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 4: more when they're putting in the Iraq war, are identified

773
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 4: as the party that would not have gone to war

774
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 4: in Iran, and it has been very helpful for them

775
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 4: to say cost through up because of the stupid war

776
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 4: in Iran. If you look at the pulling trend and

777
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 4: I use the Nate Silver for silver bowl in which

778
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,879
Speaker 4: is kind of reformulate what he did. At five point

779
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:16,360
Speaker 4: thirty eight. Democrats biggest lead was during the depths of

780
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 4: the Iran conflict. It dipped a little bit. It's kind

781
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 4: of flat. It's at six point something because it might

782
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 4: change while we're talking down from seven point something any

783
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 4: day that the war is going.

784
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 5: On in the news.

785
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 4: Democrats feel pretty good about it and they're not again

786
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 4: not divide at all. They've been dividing things in the past.

787
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 4: They don't have people showing up at their town halls

788
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 4: demanding they stop the war, and they're all saying, we're trying,

789
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 4: we will vote against it. I mean, I would be

790
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 4: glit about they had that going for them, but that

791
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 4: was about to say so maybe I was lib right.

792
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 1: And we saw them do a War Powers Act. Represent

793
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:50,280
Speaker 1: Ji Paul did a War Powers Act. So there definitely

794
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: is you know, in that war for Republicans voter Ford

795
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 1: and in you know, Trump world, that's not insignificant. Let's

796
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 1: talk about Wisconsin because because there's this fat shed governor's race,

797
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: there's no Senate seats up, but there's this governor's race,

798
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 1: Tony Evers is turned out or he decided not to

799
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: run again, or is he turned out?

800
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 4: He is not turned out, he decided not to run again.

801
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 4: He's in his seventies and he's popular, but there are

802
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 4: questions when voters were asked they thought he had it

803
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 4: in for another term. Everyone who's over seventies faced this

804
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,800
Speaker 4: question that the way they weren't because of some stuff

805
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 4: that happened two years ago.

806
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 1: So he does not endorse his lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes

807
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: explain what the fuck is happening here?

808
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, and I'll be in Wisconsin in the coming

809
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 4: week to write more about this. But Evers is liked.

810
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 4: In twenty eighteen, he beats Scott Walker, his lieutenant governor's

811
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 4: Mandela Barnes, who is a young a's still pretty young

812
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 4: black Foot legislator from Milwaukee. And it's this balanced ticket

813
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 4: of the old white guy who's not terribly charismatic and

814
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 4: Mandela's is very charismatic. Mandela runs for centate against Ron

815
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 4: Johnson twenty twenty two. It loses very narrowly after and

816
00:44:58,400 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 4: there's some argument about how much he was a band

817
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 4: quote unquote abandoned but it was it was well known

818
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,760
Speaker 4: that Chuck Schumer thought whish there was a stronger candidate

819
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,479
Speaker 4: than this guy who said some said the very twenty

820
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 4: twenty stuff. In twenty twenty, he says his things that

821
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 4: Reublics are able to use against him, And it was

822
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 4: this campaign where Republicans pretended that all crime that had

823
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,720
Speaker 4: happened in Wisconsin was a result of Black Lives Matter protests,

824
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 4: et cetera. So Evers chooses a new lieutenank Governor Sarah Rodriguez,

825
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 4: who's a legislator from suburban Milwaukee, kind of a emblematic

826
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:30,239
Speaker 4: of where Democrats are gaining votes, and they have a

827
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 4: couple of great elections, they flipped the Supreme Court. The

828
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 4: Bredriguez is seen as not the most dynamic candidate in

829
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 4: the world, but probably the best successor to Evers. But

830
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 4: he's going to stay neutral because the governor wants to

831
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:42,800
Speaker 4: state neutral.

832
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 5: She runs.

833
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 4: She's a terrible candidate. Sorry, pardon the story here, and

834
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 4: this part of this is the story of the Cuomo

835
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 4: being the avatar of moderates in New York is sometimes

836
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 4: you just get it terrible. She just makes a lot

837
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 4: of mistakes, ending with her campaign manager basically misreporting how

838
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 4: much money she had raised and it could spend, and

839
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 4: her not knowing that, but knowing that the person was

840
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 4: terribly irresponsible, she sort of just tries to fan the

841
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 4: race for a couple of days and then give up

842
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 4: and she quits. In the period where she's quitting, Governor

843
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 4: Ebers talks to David Crowley, who is the county executive

844
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:16,760
Speaker 4: of Milwaukee, and people, I think you have a general

845
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 4: sense of Wisconsin, but Milwaukee is actually less and less.

846
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 4: Democrats win it. But when they win statewide because they've

847
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 4: destroyed Republicans in Dane County, which is Madison and suburbs,

848
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:31,879
Speaker 4: and they win Milwaukee by a lot, and they gain

849
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 4: in the Milwaukee suburbs, and they win kind of working

850
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,879
Speaker 4: class towns that still have Democrats in them. Scott Walker

851
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 4: used to be Milwaukee County executive. Now it's a Democrats

852
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 4: for a progressive Democrat, and he's not. He didn't run

853
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:44,400
Speaker 4: a very good He runs for governor before all, this

854
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 4: doesn't do very well, drops out, Evers gets him back

855
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 4: of the race and endorses him immediately. Labor unions, well

856
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 4: this is the thing, so you would say, well, his

857
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 4: former lieutenant governor is running why not him? And there's

858
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 4: basically a rumor mail in Wisconsin about when something might

859
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 4: come out at some point about Mandela Barnes, which he denies.

860
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 4: I mean it's a little cough cask there is it true?

861
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 4: The things they say about you. I'm not going to

862
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 4: tell you which things while this is happening. Why are

863
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 4: Democrats so worried? Well? Francesca Hong, who is a legislator.

864
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 4: She owned a Roman restaurant in Madison. She's from Madison,

865
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 4: from the most progressive part of the state. She is

866
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,240
Speaker 4: the most progressive candet. She's a member of Democrats. Socialis

867
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 4: of America DSA is for her. A lot of progressive

868
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 4: groups are for her, and she runs a very progressive campaign.

869
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 4: Everything gets compared to zorn now, but it's not unfair.

870
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 4: Her promocity shots and Harry campaign eventual where the Rosie

871
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 4: Riveter bandana, her hair. She wears jumpsuits since videos of

872
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 4: her dancing. She's running this very populist I'm going to

873
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 4: tax the rich, I'm going to stop data centers. I'm

874
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 4: going to fund our schools and even cut property tax.

875
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 4: He's running the most progressive campaign, which Democrats think cannot win.

876
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:52,760
Speaker 4: Not just not those issues necessarily, because in twenty twenty,

877
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,799
Speaker 4: more than Mandela Barnes as a socialist, he was talking

878
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 4: about how we need to eventually get to the abolition

879
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 4: of prison and police. She's no longer believe that. But

880
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 4: this is why Democrats are worried. So there are other

881
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 4: Democrats running for this office that have not gotten traction.

882
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 4: But it is basically a pile up of the governor

883
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 4: intervening to help, is to help this guy who has

884
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 4: not not his lieutenant governor, the former lieutenant governor with

885
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 4: a lot of residual support still running, and then the

886
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:21,759
Speaker 4: socialist candidate without anything, attacking any scandal necessarily at all,

887
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 4: getting thirty something of a percent of the vote in polling.

888
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 4: And this is the Democratic worry is that the most

889
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 4: progressive voters in the state are going to nominate the

890
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 4: most progressive candidate. She will then and then they think

891
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 4: she will lose because there's this debate. You've heard this,

892
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:37,400
Speaker 4: and a lot of people on the left and democratic

893
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 4: politics thinks, oh, the centrists don't want us to win

894
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 4: because then we get to govern and they I can't

895
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 4: polygraph them. They generally don't think they can win. Then't

896
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 4: win in New York because it's New York. They do

897
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 4: think that the socialist candidate for Madison. And if you've

898
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 4: spent time Madison, spent time Wisconsin. Republicans use Madison the

899
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 4: way that nationally Republicans will stay California. Madison means the

900
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,760
Speaker 4: liberal place that doesn't work very well, where everyone's crazy

901
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 4: that they would run a pretty straightforward all right, let

902
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 4: me need change, and this person's too left wing. They

903
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 4: think she would lose. She doesn't think she would lose.

904
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 4: Most food if people voting for it don't think she

905
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 4: would lose. But that's the situation there. And backing up,

906
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 4: why is this relevant generally? Well, Wisconsonant, it's important, But

907
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 4: generally a problem for Democrats has been you're out of power,

908
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:26,479
Speaker 4: you lost the presidency, and you don't have a leader

909
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 4: of the party necessarily with a lot of credibility. We're

910
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 4: not a parliamentary system where somebody all, I'm the spokesman,

911
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 4: my hand is up. Ken Martin DNC chair avowidly, I'm

912
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 4: got the leader of the party, a king Jeffrey as well.

913
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 4: I'm not going to intervene every election. Chuck Schumer kind

914
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,840
Speaker 4: of tacitly if you want to say you're a Democratic

915
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 4: Senate candidate and you're not going to vote for me

916
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 4: for a leader, go ahead and say that. So they

917
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 4: don't have a strong leader who can say this is

918
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 4: our guy, I'm Democratic Trump, this is our candidate. Vote

919
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 4: for this candidate. They have kind of been spooked out

920
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 4: of doing that, and also they don't have the credibility

921
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:59,319
Speaker 4: to do it, so you don't have You have somewhat messy,

922
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 4: and messy primaries are fine. I'm a reporter. I don't

923
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,360
Speaker 4: mind them. You have this track where the Democratic left

924
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,919
Speaker 4: thinks that the establishment is ringing everything, and the establishment says,

925
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 4: can you see us, We're terrible, We can't forget anything,

926
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 4: Like none of us have credibility, none of us are

927
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 4: popular enough. Like if Obama wanted to come off the

928
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:17,280
Speaker 4: bench and in doors, he could, but he doesn't.

929
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:21,759
Speaker 1: That's Wisconsin and that's a gubernatorial so it's a little

930
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: bit different. In the Senate, it seems as if the

931
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:29,799
Speaker 1: main replacement of Troy Jackson has gone about as well

932
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:31,320
Speaker 1: as anyone could have hoped.

933
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, that went pretty well. Yeah, I'm agreeing with you.

934
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 4: More interesting than that, people probably don't needed to recapitulate

935
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 4: the entire main process.

936
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 1: However, so instead of putting in Janamils who came in second,

937
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 1: or putting in someone they ran a process the person

938
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:52,280
Speaker 1: who was the most ideologically like platin Er, a labor

939
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 1: union or organizer who had been the head of the

940
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 1: main Senate. Troy Jackson gets it.

941
00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:00,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Jackson. I mean, it's one of those cans

942
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 4: where you start describe the bio and you say, oh, yeah,

943
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 4: that makes sense that he's the game he wanted. He

944
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 4: is a union logger from way up north.

945
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: Fifth generation Maynor, like a real He's really what Grand

946
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: Platiner pretended to be.

947
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a good way to put it. And I

948
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 4: had heard I'm forgetting which of the vetters talked to him,

949
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 4: But when progressors were trying to find a candidate against

950
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 4: Susan Collins, they talked to Troy Jackson, and they came

951
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 4: away thinking, one he wants to be governor, which he

952
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 4: ran for governor, and two Plattner was more impressive. And

953
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 4: you hear this from a lot. Alex Heitzwaalder runs the

954
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 4: main village, or has pointed out I saw this myself.

955
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:37,800
Speaker 4: You'd go to an event at Story Jackson Grand Platner,

956
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 4: and it was the applause. The meter was for Platner.

957
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 4: Platner was just a more compelling speaker, I'd say, you

958
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:46,280
Speaker 4: could say, especially for white liberals who went to college,

959
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 4: but in general, right just he holds the room in

960
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 4: the palm of his hand, and Jackson will does not.

961
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 4: He's not stupid, he just is not a natural order.

962
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,399
Speaker 4: So he jumps in. He very quickly clears the field

963
00:51:56,440 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 4: because the race to replaced Platiner becomes a sort of

964
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 4: a mulligan for people who had run for Congress and loss,

965
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 4: or run for governor and lost. Almost everybody who had

966
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 4: run for governor actually except for Ingus King, the third

967
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 4: runs for this Jackson. There's one debate. Jackson does fine,

968
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 4: which is one concern about him. He's not the best debater,

969
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 4: and he it was the Secretary station of Bellows who

970
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 4: had terrible debate, kind of talked himself out of it.

971
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 4: And Jackson had the most organized campaign. So they have

972
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 4: county meetings where they choose delegates to this quickie convention

973
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 4: they're having in Bangor on Sunday. For Saturday. The delegates

974
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 4: who are aligned with Jackson say, I'm going to go

975
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 4: to Bangor and vote for Jackson, win almost every delegate slot,

976
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 4: and everyone drops out, So it's to be It's gonna

977
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 4: be Troy Jackson. This is the happiest ending for now

978
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 4: the Democrats could have had, because this is a guy

979
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,839
Speaker 4: who got along very well with Platnir to a fault.

980
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 4: Republicans are going to use the fact that they co

981
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 4: endorsed each other and talked about each other. We'll see

982
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:51,879
Speaker 4: people care, but they're going to use that. It ended

983
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 4: up being a very very happy ending for progressives, and

984
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 4: Republicans are now are retail, Let's recalibrate, run against this

985
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 4: guy who is left wing but doesn't have all of

986
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 4: Platinus vulnerabilities Nazi tattoo.

987
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 1: It feels like the states where Democrats have done better

988
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 1: are the states where you know there's been a clear

989
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 1: winner and the loser has sort of gotten on board

990
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 1: with the winner.

991
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 4: Yes, that has happened. The closest you get to some

992
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,439
Speaker 4: democratic bitterness, it's a little bit odd is Texas, where

993
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 4: Jasmine Crockett loses to Jeans tall Rico. She says, right

994
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 4: the next day, I endorse James tell Rico. But there

995
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 4: is a long isotopic half life of bitterness in that primary.

996
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:39,479
Speaker 4: As of this week, tell Rico when he's in black

997
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:41,800
Speaker 4: areas of the state, still getting questions about that, and

998
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 4: his answer this week was, if you're one of my supporters,

999
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,840
Speaker 4: take Jasmine Crocket's name out of your mouth, was the

1000
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 4: way he put it. Just don't keep this fight going

1001
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 4: because everything else has been Primary is over and people say,

1002
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 4: all right, well we need to stop fascism is officially

1003
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:57,240
Speaker 4: our democratic position. Let's just stick together.

1004
00:53:57,680 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, Dave, thank you, thank you saying thank you for

1005
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:08,720
Speaker 1: coming on. Yeah, thank you, no moment, Jesse Cannon.

1006
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 2: Jude Fast. So our friend Ken Paxton, who is running

1007
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:15,359
Speaker 2: for the sentate in Texas against James Tallerico. You may

1008
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 2: know him as being a man who really really does

1009
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:21,439
Speaker 2: not respect the wall when it comes to himself, yet

1010
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:24,320
Speaker 2: likes to enforce it for other people. And now we

1011
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 2: have news that he voted in six selections while registered

1012
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,160
Speaker 2: at an address where he does not live.

1013
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 1: Yes, you'll be shocked. And now Ken Paxton known to

1014
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 1: be I don't know, I mean known to be like

1015
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 1: whatever it is that Ken Paxton is, I mean, having

1016
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 1: survived in a removal in the Senate, having uh, you know,

1017
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 1: being on July fourth in Europe with his girlfriend having Uh,

1018
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 1: you know, this guy is like trumpier than Trump. He

1019
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:04,919
Speaker 1: makes Trump look like Lincoln. He's accused Democrats of voter

1020
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,759
Speaker 1: fraud and in fact he's got a bunch of houses.

1021
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:12,959
Speaker 1: He is registered at an address he does not live.

1022
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: He's voted six elections at that address. On Friday, he

1023
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:22,280
Speaker 1: Paxton was asked point blank whether he committed voter fraud

1024
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 1: and he of course ran away. So I think we

1025
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 1: have a really good job here for the TMZ boys.

1026
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 1: It is time for you guys to ask Ken Paxton

1027
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:40,839
Speaker 1: where he lives and why he's registered somewhere else. That's

1028
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:47,360
Speaker 1: it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday,

1029
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 1: Thursday and Saturday to hear the best minds and politics

1030
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 1: make sense of all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast,

1031
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation

1032
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:01,800
Speaker 1: going going. Thanks for listening.