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Speaker 1: Friday Morning Podcast. Chad Milman, Sharp or Square coming up.
Speaker 1: I know you love that. I had a rough week.
Speaker 1: Looking to bounce back. I love my picks this week.
Speaker 1: I loved them last week. What can I say, I
Speaker 1: know a lot of people. You know, you watched Philadelphia
Speaker 1: tonight and it wasn't the most appealing game. But I'm
Speaker 1: a big believer in sustainability, Like can you do things
Speaker 1: and repeat things over and over? You know, always making
Speaker 1: a lot of money in your life and having a
Speaker 1: great job is not usually sustainable. Living below your means, investing,
Speaker 1: being fruit goals, spend less than you make is sustainable.
Speaker 1: I tell my kids that all the time. Just get
Speaker 1: into patterns, be prepared for bad times, and so when
Speaker 1: they hit, you don't have to change your lifestyle. And
Speaker 1: Philadelphia the way they won tonight, dominating the line of scrimmage,
Speaker 1: that's sustainable for sixteen weeks. Fifteen weeks, that's a great
Speaker 1: offensive line getting over the top plays. Some teams, the
Speaker 1: smart teams like New England just took that away. They
Speaker 1: just don't want you to go over the top track
Speaker 1: meet teams. Miami tends to be that. Dolphins looks like
Speaker 1: a little bit of a track meet team. Now their
Speaker 1: games are wildly entertaining against the Chargers. You're not going
Speaker 1: to get that every week. That's not sustainable, right, Like
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill banged up Jalen waddle out. You face a
Speaker 1: team with good pressure, Tua gets hit. He's been injury prone.
Speaker 1: But the way the Philadelphia Eagles won tonight and it
Speaker 1: was ugly, is incredibly sustainable. Dominate the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 1: You know, this is not college football. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson,
Speaker 1: Jordan Addison, Osbourne. They got dudes too, a couple good
Speaker 1: edge rushers. Minnesota's got dudes too, but Philadelphia hasn't really
Speaker 1: played that well offensively. It's very rare that you can
Speaker 1: go on the road. Last week, the Eagles go on
Speaker 1: the road, get out played in the second half and
Speaker 1: win tonight. Choppy, turbulent first half, didn't pass the ball
Speaker 1: effective early and won. They had a nine minute drive
Speaker 1: at one point and didn't score. Totally sustainable. You're laying
Speaker 1: Johnson's Kelsey Jason Kelcey best center in football. Probably you
Speaker 1: can do that every weekend. And you know, if you
Speaker 1: go back and look at New England's dynasty, and I
Speaker 1: you know, I was loving Connecticut during the last ten
Speaker 1: years of it, or a big chunk of the last
Speaker 1: ten years of it. There were the Randy Moss years
Speaker 1: where they were winning shootouts and blowing people out. But
Speaker 1: a lot of times in New England during that dynasty,
Speaker 1: just in the AFC, Baltimore had better personnel many years,
Speaker 1: so did the Steelers. Colts had equal personnel. They didn't
Speaker 1: always have the best teams, but if you remember, they
Speaker 1: always got great offensive line play with their coach Dante
Speaker 1: Scarnekia with Brady, they were very good pre snap. They
Speaker 1: were great at getting pressure not always sacks, but pressure
Speaker 1: on opposing quarterbacks under Bill Belichick, and they got turnovers.
Speaker 1: They were outplayed in a lot of big games Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Colts, Denver,
Speaker 1: and they just found ways to win by being very
Speaker 1: good pre snap, good special teams, a big situational play late,
Speaker 1: sometimes a trick play with Julian Edelman. That's sustainable New England.
Speaker 1: If I could define their dynasty, they were the smartest
Speaker 1: team in the league. Brady really smart, Belichick a brilliant
Speaker 1: defensive coach. They were not always the most talented. Smart
Speaker 1: is sustainable. The Randy Moss years are not right. So
Speaker 1: I look at Philadelphia and they don't look nearly as
Speaker 1: overpowering as Sanford Cisco did. And I think it's very
Speaker 1: obvious that without Shane Stiken, the offensive coordinator from last year,
Speaker 1: formerly with Justin Herbert. Jalen Hurts now he had a
Speaker 1: very nice debut with Anthony Richardson. He's a brilliant offensive coach.
Speaker 1: Finally getting a head coaching job with the Colts. You know,
Speaker 1: they're trying to find their way, trying to find their rhythm.
Speaker 1: I think Alan Kirk Herbstreet talked about it tonight. You
Speaker 1: can just tell they're just not there yet.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: One of the things I think most fans know. You
Speaker 1: recognize it now. We didn't talk about this probably ten
Speaker 1: fifteen years ago when I started, but coordinators, especially on
Speaker 1: the offensive side, are so valuable, especially for young quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, what is this year four and really only
Speaker 1: year three getting You know, last year was his first
Speaker 1: big breakout year and his second year started. So I mean,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, I still think is a young quarterback. He
Speaker 1: misses Brian Dable. I think Jalen Hurts in the first
Speaker 1: two starts, he misses Shane Steike and they're out of rhythm.
Speaker 1: A couple of big plays over the top, but basically
Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni's doing what he should do. Guys, we have
Speaker 1: arguably the best offensive line in the league. We're just
Speaker 1: gonna lean into it. Dominate the line of scrimmage, control
Speaker 1: the clock. So when the other quarterback comes on the field,
Speaker 1: Mac Jones or Kirk Cousins, they can be cold. You know,
Speaker 1: they've been sitting on the bench for real time, twenty minutes.
Speaker 1: Maybe it drives nine and a half minutes. That stuff.
Speaker 1: You can do that every weekend, almost every weekend. So
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is two to zero, hasn't really played well. There
Speaker 1: are very few teams in pro football that could play
Speaker 1: as poorly as the Eagles did in the opener on
Speaker 1: the road and win. There are very few teams that
Speaker 1: are struggling offensively to pass the ball can face a
Speaker 1: team last year that was eleven to zero and one
Speaker 1: score games the Vikings and win pretty convincingly. So you know,
Speaker 1: Philadelphia they'll get you know, I just I think they've
Speaker 1: got too many smart people in the building, the GM,
Speaker 1: the quarterback, a lot of veteran offensive linemen. They'll figure
Speaker 1: it out. I didn't think they played part thirty well tonight.
Speaker 1: I just thought they dominated the line of scrimmage. Minnesota
Speaker 1: is gonna draft a quarterback and they're gonna draft a quarterback,
Speaker 1: I would imagine in the first round. I mean, there's
Speaker 1: a few things we know. The New York Jets, because
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers got hurt and will not play sixty five
Speaker 1: percent of the snaps, the Jets retain their first round pick.
Speaker 1: Be shocked if they don't draft an offensive lineman with
Speaker 1: their first pick. The Minnesota Vikings are going to draft
Speaker 1: soar the Arizona Cardinals, so probably are the Raiders are
Speaker 1: gonna draft a quarterback in the first round. So I
Speaker 1: think the Kirk Cousins saying, you know these big TV
Speaker 1: Thursday night, Monday night, Sunday night standalone games, Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: is just bad at him. There's no getting around it.
Speaker 1: He is just bad. They call certain players teeth clenchers,
Speaker 1: where they get up tight. Early in Peyton Manning's career,
Speaker 1: he had a little bit of that. He was really
Speaker 1: really intense and wanted another walk through in another practice.
Speaker 1: And Tony Dungee once told the story where Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: in his career, on Saturdays was sort of family day,
Speaker 1: get the families out into practice, and Peyton was like, no,
Speaker 1: I want up tempo, I want to practice, And Tony
Speaker 1: would say, no, it's we're okay, We're in a good space.
Speaker 1: So Peyton was pretty intense early, and I thought it
Speaker 1: hurt him sometimes in big spots early in his career,
Speaker 1: not as much late. I think. I think Kirk's always
Speaker 1: been that guy. He's got one o'clock games at home, especially,
Speaker 1: he's money. Get him in these standalone spots, he's not
Speaker 1: as good. So the Green Bay Packers and Detroit looked
Speaker 1: very good in the NFC North Minnesota zho to two,
Speaker 1: but a better draft spot and they need a quarterback
Speaker 1: long term. Philadelphia ugly to and zero. They'll take it.
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Speaker 1: crown is yours. All right. Had a couple of people
Speaker 1: at the gym come up to me and say, Hey,
Speaker 1: you doing sharpened square And I said, it's sharp or square,
Speaker 1: not sharp and square. Or I'm the or square. He's
Speaker 1: the sharp before the or square. It's Chad Milman's CEO
Speaker 1: Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: I stunk last week, but last year was the only
Speaker 1: time I've won in Week one in forever. So I'm
Speaker 1: ready to go bounce back week. I'm gonna be the
Speaker 1: New York Giants of squares. I am going to bounce back. Okay,
Speaker 1: first number, and the number is telling me I'm on
Speaker 1: the wrong side. But I like Chicago plus two and
Speaker 1: a half anyway, listen, Baker's a great story. But I
Speaker 1: think I get a little bit of a coach edge.
Speaker 1: I think Claypool may not play. I think Chicago really
Speaker 1: believes they can win this division. I think Tampa's going
Speaker 1: to figure out fairly quickly. They are what they are.
Speaker 1: I think there's absolute urgency. I think the Bears at
Speaker 1: home were humiliated. I think they'll be totally focused. If
Speaker 1: there's any rushing props for Justin Fields take them. I
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be able to kind of work this
Speaker 1: defense and move around a little. I'm gonna take Chicago
Speaker 1: plus two and a half. It feels like that's not
Speaker 1: what the Sharps want me to do, but I'm gonna
Speaker 1: do it anyway.
Speaker 2: Sharper Square, dude, you're misreading it entirely. The Sharps love
Speaker 2: this play and they love that you're doing it. They've
Speaker 2: been calling me in saying, make sure Colin takes the
Speaker 2: Bears at plus two and a half. This game opened
Speaker 2: at four. It's been bet to two and a half
Speaker 2: by the wise guys. The public is on the Buccaneers
Speaker 2: and this is one of those. And there's a lot
Speaker 2: of this this week classic overreaction to what people saw
Speaker 2: in Week one and letting that play into their decision
Speaker 2: making for week two. And that's a mistake that a
Speaker 2: lot of people make. There's a stat I can give
Speaker 2: you right now. Since twenty twelve teams that lost by
Speaker 2: double digits, the Bears playing against teams that did not
Speaker 2: lose by double digits, so that team would have to
Speaker 2: have won the game or lost by less than ten.
Speaker 2: That's the Buccaneers, the team that lost by double digits
Speaker 2: on the road since twenty twelve, twenty four and one
Speaker 2: against the spread. So there are two teams that fit
Speaker 2: that criteria this week. The Bears are one of them.
Speaker 2: And look, there was so much hype on the Bears
Speaker 2: before the season began, and there was no hype on
Speaker 2: the Box. So naturally, with the way the Bears got
Speaker 2: beat and the way the Bucks won, there's going to
Speaker 2: be a little bit of a flip. This script is
Speaker 2: going to be flipped. But look, the Bears offense, they
Speaker 2: had twenty two first downs, they had more time of
Speaker 2: possession than the Packers, they had three tonovers and four sacks. Meanwhile,
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers defense gave up three hundred and forty four
Speaker 2: passing yards. They gave up six yards per play, not
Speaker 2: six yards per pass attempt, six yards per play and
Speaker 2: seven yards per pass attempt. So Minnesota had three turnovers,
Speaker 2: including Kirk in the red zone late in the first half,
Speaker 2: that would have put them up seventeen to ten. And
Speaker 2: that would have been a different a different game. So
Speaker 2: I like what we're seeing here with the Bears as underdogs.
Speaker 2: It's sharp. I've played it, okay.
Speaker 1: I don't like favorites much. I took one last week
Speaker 1: and got burned. I'll get to that in a second.
Speaker 1: But I do have a theory that if you have
Speaker 1: a capable quarterback and a good coach and are humiliated
Speaker 1: in a standalone game on team, you'll empty the bag
Speaker 1: following week. Play with great emotion and focus. Giants. It's
Speaker 1: now minus four at DraftKings, Arizona. I like the Giants
Speaker 1: a lot sharper square play it.
Speaker 2: Play it. Play it in your survivor pools. Don't waste
Speaker 2: your early season picks on the Bills or the Chiefs
Speaker 2: or anyone else. Play the Giants. I actually got this
Speaker 2: at five and feel like I got the worst of
Speaker 2: the number. I'm a little surprised it's moved to four,
Speaker 2: but this is one of those spots, right you're going
Speaker 2: to play the team that just got blown out. Look, Arizona,
Speaker 2: they didn't win that game so much. They didn't they
Speaker 2: didn't cover that game so much as why by the way,
Speaker 2: I'm counting a cover for Arizona as a win. That's
Speaker 2: how that's how low the expectations were. But they did
Speaker 2: play a game in which the other team practically gave
Speaker 2: them the game, and so this is not going to
Speaker 2: be the same scenario. Brian Dayball is a much better coach.
Speaker 2: It's a coaching mismatch. Look, they stunk it. They played
Speaker 2: a team that was just much better at that moment,
Speaker 2: a really good defense. They didn't have the right game plan.
Speaker 2: You can came up with all the excuses whatever you want.
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, the scenario here is
Speaker 2: you take the Giants.
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't love the number. I'd like it better
Speaker 1: at three, but I'm gonna take Kansas City. Andy Reid
Speaker 1: historically off a buyer with extra time is money. They
Speaker 1: didn't have Travis Kelcey. He's the greatest receiving tight end ever.
Speaker 1: He'll get fifteen targets this week. Jacksonville struggled mightily and won.
Speaker 1: So if they'd have lost an Indy right and being humiliated,
Speaker 1: I'd stay away. They were outplayed in one. Okay, Kansas
Speaker 1: City's defense, I don't know about anybody else. They got
Speaker 1: a consistent pass rush without Chris Jones and oh, by
Speaker 1: the way, the Lions O line is good and they
Speaker 1: were in Jared Goff's face. I think this is one
Speaker 1: of these. I've seen these two teams play twice last year.
Speaker 1: The gap is bigger. It wasn't closed in one off season.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Kansas City minus three and a
Speaker 1: half and I think they win by a touchdown.
Speaker 2: All right, So there's a couple different scenarios here. And
Speaker 2: you're right about the Chiefs and you're right about the Lions,
Speaker 2: and that plays into a Lion Seahawks game, which I
Speaker 2: might try to convince you to bet. But with that
Speaker 2: game against the Lions, the Chiefs actually only gave up
Speaker 2: fourteen offensive points. Don't know, there was a pick six?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: No, right? And so here's where where sort of the
Speaker 2: sentiment and what you believe about a roster and what
Speaker 2: you as an analyst who was much more sophisticated about
Speaker 2: football than you let people believe. Let's that play into Okay,
Speaker 2: this game opened to two and a half and then
Speaker 2: it got to three, and now is at three and
Speaker 2: a half. So the number has been moving against your
Speaker 2: decision right here for me, once it got to three
Speaker 2: and a half, it was a pass. Like I didn't
Speaker 2: want to play Kansas City as more than a field
Speaker 2: goal favorite on the road because then you start getting
Speaker 2: into trends that go against Patrick Mahomes. So the wise
Speaker 2: guys liked it at two and a half, they liked it, Okay,
Speaker 2: at three, it's a pass. At three and a.
Speaker 1: Half, Okay, Well that's why we do this. I think
Speaker 1: this is a coaching mismatch, but I'm going to do
Speaker 1: it anyway. I think Brandon Staley for the first time,
Speaker 1: players are criticizing him. The media in LA crushed him.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Chargers minus three at Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Tannehill miss spots, didn't look good. Vrabel criticized him publicly.
Speaker 1: He's a much better coach than Brandon Staley. I can't
Speaker 1: believe this roster can go zero to two. I can't
Speaker 1: believe it. Chargers minus three. What say you sharper square one.
Speaker 2: Thing I want to clarify about the Chiefs like I
Speaker 2: want to like, I believe they're going to win by
Speaker 2: the touchdown that you say they will. I'm just saying
Speaker 2: for people who are listening, the value like what professionals
Speaker 2: are thinking about when it gets to three and a half.
Speaker 2: They're not going to play it because there's no value anymore.
Speaker 2: Not that they don't think the Chiefs are going to
Speaker 2: win big. Just to be clear, in this game, the
Speaker 2: first thing you said, it's a coaching mismatch. And so
Speaker 2: why would you lean into a coach who in two
Speaker 2: seasons of coaching has not proven any ability to put
Speaker 2: his team in a position to win with the kinds
Speaker 2: of decisions that he makes. He has more talent at
Speaker 2: the offense on the offensive side of the ball. Colin,
Speaker 2: you preach this all the time. I listened to your
Speaker 2: fabulous radio show. One of your primary theories defensive coaches
Speaker 2: with offensive genius players is not a good match, right?
Speaker 2: How many times have you said that? And so all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, we're leaning into Brandon Staley on the
Speaker 2: road as a favorite against a much better football coach,
Speaker 2: against a defensive line than's good. Fierce Jeffrey Simmons is
Speaker 2: an All Pro caliber player, and Mike Rabel, by the way,
Speaker 2: one of the best underdog coaches in the NFL twenty
Speaker 2: four to nine and one as an underdog of three
Speaker 2: or more, including this past week against the Saints. There's
Speaker 2: a handful of coaches that every professional better is thinking
Speaker 2: about when they are looking to bet. Mike Vrabel, John Harbaugh,
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick. Those are the guys
Speaker 2: that you want to be betting on as underdogs.
Speaker 1: All right, A lot of times you try to convince
Speaker 1: me to bet ugly games. So I'm going to give
Speaker 1: you a little my belief system here. The NFC South
Speaker 1: is bad. Nobody's really good enough to beat their rivals
Speaker 1: on the road. They'll all win their home games. So
Speaker 1: Carolina at home getting a field goal against New Orleans.
Speaker 1: I mean, New Orleans had a couple of big pop plays,
Speaker 1: but I don't think anybody in this division is going
Speaker 1: on the road and beating their rivals. I'm gonna take Carolina.
Speaker 1: They hung with Atlanta. I think Carolina is the side
Speaker 1: plus three sharper square.
Speaker 2: Totally sharp. They don't love it. But when we look
Speaker 2: at some metrics, and you can see this at actionnetwork
Speaker 2: dot com or in the Action Network app, we will
Speaker 2: list the percentage of bets coming in on a game,
Speaker 2: and we will list the percentage of money coming in
Speaker 2: in a game, And those two things are not necessarily correlated.
Speaker 2: Bets are actual number of bets one ticket, two ticket,
Speaker 2: three ticket, four tickets. But you could have one ticket
Speaker 2: that is worth one hundred thousand dollars and ten tickets
Speaker 2: that are worth ten dollars, and the number of bets
Speaker 2: will not equal the number of money. Money is usually
Speaker 2: an indicator of what professional betters are doing. Bets are
Speaker 2: an indicator of what the public, the squares are doing.
Speaker 2: The bets in this game are on the Saints. The
Speaker 2: money in this game, by a two thirds majority, is
Speaker 2: on the Panthers. And it's because of what you just said.
Speaker 2: You've got a division game, you got a home dog,
Speaker 2: prime time. It sets up nicely. That's why they're betting
Speaker 2: the Panthers. It's not because they believe in Bryce Young.
Speaker 2: It's not because they think the Panthers are very good.
Speaker 2: Their defense did not play great. And it's not because
Speaker 2: the Saints are so amazing either, right like Tannehill looks
Speaker 2: a little bit washed, and yet they barely beat that
Speaker 2: Tennessee team. They needed some turnover. So it's purely sort
Speaker 2: of number play.
Speaker 1: So I'm disgusted with myself betting this Washington plus three
Speaker 1: and a half. At Denver, I had a executive, well
Speaker 1: a scout call me on Monday, he said, Colin, he goes,
Speaker 1: I know you like Russell. He's missing, He's there's wide
Speaker 1: open people here. These are good schemes, these are good plays.
Speaker 1: He can't see him. He's like, this offense is until
Speaker 1: they get Judy. There is no juice to this offense.
Speaker 1: The Raiders are not good. And the Raiders took the
Speaker 1: lead and never looked back. Washington's defense is good. They're good.
Speaker 2: They're gonna keep it.
Speaker 1: All Washington games are gonna look the same. They're all
Speaker 1: gonna be awful. Television three and a half is too much.
Speaker 1: I gotta take Washington Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Well, look this, this game and the Colts Texans game
Speaker 2: are battling for the corner TV game, you know the
Speaker 2: game at the sportsbook that they put on the corner
Speaker 2: because nobody really wants to watch it, but they got
Speaker 2: to have every game on. I agree with you about
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I watched that game and I was texting
Speaker 2: with a buddy and who's inside the NFL, And I
Speaker 2: was just like, Sean Payn's a genius, Like he was
Speaker 2: calling such good plays and they looked so much better.
Speaker 2: And it fell apart because Russell Wilson started to lose
Speaker 2: a little bit of steam and so it's a very
Speaker 2: challenging game. I think that Washington's roster is not as
Speaker 2: good as the Las Vegas roster. I think that this
Speaker 2: is a huge coaching mismatch. I think Jimmy g is
Speaker 2: better than Sam Howe, and I think that I would
Speaker 2: expect a different kind of scheme from Sean Payton now
Speaker 2: that he's seen what Russell can do over the course
Speaker 2: of a game when other teams are adjusting. Also, I'm
Speaker 2: still a big believer in Denver's defense. I think it's
Speaker 2: a really good defense. Washington, to me, was a terrible team.
Speaker 2: Like if Arizona has anything more serviceable than a quarterback
Speaker 2: who who still did not know the names of his
Speaker 2: teammates because he had signed two weeks earlier, they probably
Speaker 2: lose that game. So for me, this game is a
Speaker 2: pass like. I'm not interested the line has moved in
Speaker 2: Denver's direction from three to three and a half. That's
Speaker 2: more of a wise guy play than a public play.
Speaker 2: But I like your sentiment. I like that you're thinking
Speaker 2: about betting ugly betting the NFL. Winning the NFL means
Speaker 2: betting bad quarterbacks, but here you got two bad quarterbacks
Speaker 2: and not a lot of a lot of edge.
Speaker 1: Okay, So we do two things after I make my picks,
Speaker 1: a game you try to talk me into, and then
Speaker 1: a game I just want your opinion that I could
Speaker 1: be convinced of. So New England getting two and a
Speaker 1: half at home is interesting if you look. Miami has
Speaker 1: with to a beaten Belichick, but two averages, three touchdowns,
Speaker 1: two picks, eighty eight passer ratings. They've scuffed and found
Speaker 1: ways to win. I thought New England out played Philadelphia
Speaker 1: for big chunks of that game, and I would take
Speaker 1: the points with New England here, Sharper.
Speaker 2: Square, totally sharp. I know you are our listener of
Speaker 2: the Favorites podcast. You know that we get calls every
Speaker 2: week from professional betters who will comment on one of
Speaker 2: the episodes of the podcast that we did earlier in
Speaker 2: the week where we're talking about our early leans. The
Speaker 2: Patriots were an early lean. We got a lot of
Speaker 2: sharp calls, a lot of professional betters calling us saying
Speaker 2: they love the Patriots here and I'm with you. I
Speaker 2: watched that that New England Philly game. New England dominated
Speaker 2: that game, and they were the better team. They were
Speaker 2: the better defense. Mac Jones looked pretty good at times.
Speaker 2: Bill O'Brien put him in the right positions to succeed.
Speaker 2: Down to the end. They had a chance to win
Speaker 2: that game. It's if a phantom holding call on a
Speaker 2: two point CONVERSI kept them from covering that game, Colin,
Speaker 2: I can't even talk about like I got to tell
Speaker 2: you for about I had the Pats and for about
Speaker 2: twenty four hours until the Jets won, thank god, and
Speaker 2: I had the Jets. I was kind of sick to
Speaker 2: my stomach. I couldn't.
Speaker 1: I listened to the Colts game and the Patriots game. I
Speaker 1: lost both. I had them both.
Speaker 2: I still love my side. Listen, you deserve to win
Speaker 2: both of those games. You do. And I have a
Speaker 2: saying the right side is the winning side. So when
Speaker 2: you lose, you lose. But I will tell you that
Speaker 2: we do these luck rankings at Action where basically you
Speaker 2: take out the noise, you level the playing field, you
Speaker 2: take out the random penalties, you take out the turnovers,
Speaker 2: and you come up with what we call the luck
Speaker 2: rankings that basically determines the luckiest teams on a week
Speaker 2: to week basis and you aggregate it so it's the
Speaker 2: luckiest team over the course of a season. The Eagles
Speaker 2: and the Lions were the two luckiest teams in Week one.
Speaker 2: The Eagles barely beat the Patriots. I know what I saw.
Speaker 2: The Patriots are a really good team. The Patriots are
Speaker 2: getting a very overhyped Dolphins team that needed a lot
Speaker 2: of help from the opponent to win on the road.
Speaker 2: Two is not going to throw for five hundred yards again.
Speaker 2: I hope Tyreek Ko has another huge day. I got
Speaker 2: him at nine to one to lead the league in
Speaker 2: receiving yards. But I think the Patriots are the right
Speaker 2: side here.
Speaker 1: All right now, talk me into a game, Detroit Seattle,
Speaker 1: go for it.
Speaker 2: Look, this is the other game that fits that trend
Speaker 2: I mentioned before, which is twenty four to one against
Speaker 2: the spread for teams like Seattle when they are on
Speaker 2: the road coming off a double digit loss, playing a
Speaker 2: team that basically won or lost by less than ten
Speaker 2: the week before. On top of that, you're getting a
Speaker 2: team in the Lions that has so much hype into
Speaker 2: the season. They beat the super Bowl champs. They beat
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl champs on the road opening game, prime time.
Speaker 2: Seattle loses ugly to the Rams, Like this is an
Speaker 2: over hyped game, This is an inflation game in terms
Speaker 2: the line is higher than it should be. Like, you
Speaker 2: have to take Seattle here, There's just no question about it.
Speaker 2: You're gonna bet a quarterback that might make you uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: You're gonna be upset that the tackles aren't playing. But
Speaker 2: the Tritch defense is just not as good as it
Speaker 2: should be for a team to be favored by five
Speaker 2: and a half some places six. So you gotta suck
Speaker 2: it up and you gotta bet Seattle, all right.
Speaker 1: Chad Millman, c CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: My friend, it's great to see a bad week for me,
Speaker 1: But you know what, Tom Brady twelve years, double digit picks,
Speaker 1: who cares LFG Let's go.
Speaker 2: You know what, it's the end of the season that matters,
Speaker 2: not the beginning of the season. And I say that
Speaker 2: as someone who like in my five picks that we
Speaker 2: talk about, I went two and three and like it happens,
Speaker 2: It's gonna happen all the time. But also you look
Speaker 2: at it, I like after that, I don't know if
Speaker 2: you ever do this, but like at the end of
Speaker 2: that day. Between one and four and two and three
Speaker 2: is everything, because two and three you can look at
Speaker 2: your picks and say, okay, I'm two and three. But
Speaker 2: that Patriots game, like I analyzed that the right way.
Speaker 2: I would have been three and two if not for
Speaker 2: some bad luck. So I felt better about myself.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll try going on five. I couldn't even look
Speaker 1: myself in the mirror. It was awful. It was tough
Speaker 1: for five.
Speaker 2: Did you not make any of the picks that we
Speaker 2: talked about.
Speaker 1: I should have made the Cleveland bet. I didn't. I'm
Speaker 1: not betting. I'm I'm just listen, fairly bitter. It's not
Speaker 1: my personality. I bounced back. I had a cocktail Tuesday night.
Speaker 1: I was good. Had I said the Jets with a
Speaker 1: better play, and I said the lines over the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: So I had. I had some stuff. I didn't include those,
Speaker 1: but I did have. I thought the Jets were a
Speaker 1: better play, and I thought the Lions were a better play.
Speaker 2: Listen, that is one of your greatest traits. You don't
Speaker 2: wear it, you move on quickly.
Speaker 1: I like that. I don't wear it all right, buddy,
Speaker 1: good seeing you taught you the volume