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Speaker 1: guarantee game Time. Hi, everybody, welcome into the Thursday Night

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Speaker 1: Friday Morning Podcast. Chad Milman, Sharp or Square coming up.

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Speaker 1: I know you love that. I had a rough week.

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Speaker 1: Looking to bounce back. I love my picks this week.

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Speaker 1: I loved them last week. What can I say, I

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Speaker 1: know a lot of people. You know, you watched Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: tonight and it wasn't the most appealing game. But I'm

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Speaker 1: a big believer in sustainability, Like can you do things

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Speaker 1: and repeat things over and over? You know, always making

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Speaker 1: a lot of money in your life and having a

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Speaker 1: great job is not usually sustainable. Living below your means, investing,

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Speaker 1: being fruit goals, spend less than you make is sustainable.

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Speaker 1: I tell my kids that all the time. Just get

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Speaker 1: into patterns, be prepared for bad times, and so when

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Speaker 1: they hit, you don't have to change your lifestyle. And

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia the way they won tonight, dominating the line of scrimmage,

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Speaker 1: that's sustainable for sixteen weeks. Fifteen weeks, that's a great

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Speaker 1: offensive line getting over the top plays. Some teams, the

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Speaker 1: smart teams like New England just took that away. They

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Speaker 1: just don't want you to go over the top track

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Speaker 1: meet teams. Miami tends to be that. Dolphins looks like

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a track meet team. Now their

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Speaker 1: games are wildly entertaining against the Chargers. You're not going

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Speaker 1: to get that every week. That's not sustainable, right, Like

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill banged up Jalen waddle out. You face a

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Speaker 1: team with good pressure, Tua gets hit. He's been injury prone.

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Speaker 1: But the way the Philadelphia Eagles won tonight and it

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Speaker 1: was ugly, is incredibly sustainable. Dominate the line of scrimmage.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is not college football. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson,

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Speaker 1: Jordan Addison, Osbourne. They got dudes too, a couple good

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Speaker 1: edge rushers. Minnesota's got dudes too, but Philadelphia hasn't really

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Speaker 1: played that well offensively. It's very rare that you can

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Speaker 1: go on the road. Last week, the Eagles go on

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Speaker 1: the road, get out played in the second half and

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Speaker 1: win tonight. Choppy, turbulent first half, didn't pass the ball

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Speaker 1: effective early and won. They had a nine minute drive

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Speaker 1: at one point and didn't score. Totally sustainable. You're laying

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Speaker 1: Johnson's Kelsey Jason Kelcey best center in football. Probably you

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Speaker 1: can do that every weekend. And you know, if you

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Speaker 1: go back and look at New England's dynasty, and I

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Speaker 1: you know, I was loving Connecticut during the last ten

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Speaker 1: years of it, or a big chunk of the last

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Speaker 1: ten years of it. There were the Randy Moss years

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Speaker 1: where they were winning shootouts and blowing people out. But

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Speaker 1: a lot of times in New England during that dynasty,

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Speaker 1: just in the AFC, Baltimore had better personnel many years,

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Speaker 1: so did the Steelers. Colts had equal personnel. They didn't

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Speaker 1: always have the best teams, but if you remember, they

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Speaker 1: always got great offensive line play with their coach Dante

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Speaker 1: Scarnekia with Brady, they were very good pre snap. They

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Speaker 1: were great at getting pressure not always sacks, but pressure

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Speaker 1: on opposing quarterbacks under Bill Belichick, and they got turnovers.

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Speaker 1: They were outplayed in a lot of big games Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Colts, Denver,

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Speaker 1: and they just found ways to win by being very

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Speaker 1: good pre snap, good special teams, a big situational play late,

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Speaker 1: sometimes a trick play with Julian Edelman. That's sustainable New England.

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Speaker 1: If I could define their dynasty, they were the smartest

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Speaker 1: team in the league. Brady really smart, Belichick a brilliant

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Speaker 1: defensive coach. They were not always the most talented. Smart

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Speaker 1: is sustainable. The Randy Moss years are not right. So

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Speaker 1: I look at Philadelphia and they don't look nearly as

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Speaker 1: overpowering as Sanford Cisco did. And I think it's very

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Speaker 1: obvious that without Shane Stiken, the offensive coordinator from last year,

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Speaker 1: formerly with Justin Herbert. Jalen Hurts now he had a

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Speaker 1: very nice debut with Anthony Richardson. He's a brilliant offensive coach.

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Speaker 1: Finally getting a head coaching job with the Colts. You know,

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Speaker 1: they're trying to find their way, trying to find their rhythm.

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Speaker 1: I think Alan Kirk Herbstreet talked about it tonight. You

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Speaker 1: can just tell they're just not there yet.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: One of the things I think most fans know. You

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Speaker 1: recognize it now. We didn't talk about this probably ten

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Speaker 1: fifteen years ago when I started, but coordinators, especially on

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Speaker 1: the offensive side, are so valuable, especially for young quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, what is this year four and really only

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Speaker 1: year three getting You know, last year was his first

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Speaker 1: big breakout year and his second year started. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen, I still think is a young quarterback. He

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Speaker 1: misses Brian Dable. I think Jalen Hurts in the first

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Speaker 1: two starts, he misses Shane Steike and they're out of rhythm.

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Speaker 1: A couple of big plays over the top, but basically

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Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni's doing what he should do. Guys, we have

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Speaker 1: arguably the best offensive line in the league. We're just

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Speaker 1: gonna lean into it. Dominate the line of scrimmage, control

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Speaker 1: the clock. So when the other quarterback comes on the field,

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones or Kirk Cousins, they can be cold. You know,

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Speaker 1: they've been sitting on the bench for real time, twenty minutes.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it drives nine and a half minutes. That stuff.

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Speaker 1: You can do that every weekend, almost every weekend. So

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia is two to zero, hasn't really played well. There

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Speaker 1: are very few teams in pro football that could play

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Speaker 1: as poorly as the Eagles did in the opener on

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Speaker 1: the road and win. There are very few teams that

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Speaker 1: are struggling offensively to pass the ball can face a

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Speaker 1: team last year that was eleven to zero and one

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Speaker 1: score games the Vikings and win pretty convincingly. So you know,

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia they'll get you know, I just I think they've

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Speaker 1: got too many smart people in the building, the GM,

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Speaker 1: the quarterback, a lot of veteran offensive linemen. They'll figure

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Speaker 1: it out. I didn't think they played part thirty well tonight.

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Speaker 1: I just thought they dominated the line of scrimmage. Minnesota

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Speaker 1: is gonna draft a quarterback and they're gonna draft a quarterback,

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Speaker 1: I would imagine in the first round. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: a few things we know. The New York Jets, because

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers got hurt and will not play sixty five

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Speaker 1: percent of the snaps, the Jets retain their first round pick.

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Speaker 1: Be shocked if they don't draft an offensive lineman with

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Speaker 1: their first pick. The Minnesota Vikings are going to draft

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Speaker 1: soar the Arizona Cardinals, so probably are the Raiders are

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Speaker 1: gonna draft a quarterback in the first round. So I

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Speaker 1: think the Kirk Cousins saying, you know these big TV

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Speaker 1: Thursday night, Monday night, Sunday night standalone games, Kirk Cousins

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Speaker 1: is just bad at him. There's no getting around it.

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Speaker 1: He is just bad. They call certain players teeth clenchers,

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Speaker 1: where they get up tight. Early in Peyton Manning's career,

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Speaker 1: he had a little bit of that. He was really

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Speaker 1: really intense and wanted another walk through in another practice.

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Speaker 1: And Tony Dungee once told the story where Peyton Manning

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Speaker 1: in his career, on Saturdays was sort of family day,

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Speaker 1: get the families out into practice, and Peyton was like, no,

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Speaker 1: I want up tempo, I want to practice, And Tony

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Speaker 1: would say, no, it's we're okay, We're in a good space.

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Speaker 1: So Peyton was pretty intense early, and I thought it

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Speaker 1: hurt him sometimes in big spots early in his career,

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Speaker 1: not as much late. I think. I think Kirk's always

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Speaker 1: been that guy. He's got one o'clock games at home, especially,

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Speaker 1: he's money. Get him in these standalone spots, he's not

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Speaker 1: as good. So the Green Bay Packers and Detroit looked

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Speaker 1: very good in the NFC North Minnesota zho to two,

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Speaker 1: but a better draft spot and they need a quarterback

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Speaker 1: long term. Philadelphia ugly to and zero. They'll take it.

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Speaker 1: Football is back in full swing and another week of

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Speaker 1: crown is yours. All right. Had a couple of people

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Speaker 1: at the gym come up to me and say, Hey,

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Speaker 1: you doing sharpened square And I said, it's sharp or square,

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Speaker 1: not sharp and square. Or I'm the or square. He's

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Speaker 1: the sharp before the or square. It's Chad Milman's CEO

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Speaker 1: Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: I stunk last week, but last year was the only

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Speaker 1: time I've won in Week one in forever. So I'm

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Speaker 1: ready to go bounce back week. I'm gonna be the

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Speaker 1: New York Giants of squares. I am going to bounce back. Okay,

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Speaker 1: first number, and the number is telling me I'm on

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Speaker 1: the wrong side. But I like Chicago plus two and

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Speaker 1: a half anyway, listen, Baker's a great story. But I

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Speaker 1: think I get a little bit of a coach edge.

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Speaker 1: I think Claypool may not play. I think Chicago really

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Speaker 1: believes they can win this division. I think Tampa's going

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Speaker 1: to figure out fairly quickly. They are what they are.

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Speaker 1: I think there's absolute urgency. I think the Bears at

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Speaker 1: home were humiliated. I think they'll be totally focused. If

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Speaker 1: there's any rushing props for Justin Fields take them. I

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Speaker 1: think he's gonna be able to kind of work this

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Speaker 1: defense and move around a little. I'm gonna take Chicago

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half. It feels like that's not

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Speaker 1: what the Sharps want me to do, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: do it anyway.

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Speaker 2: Sharper Square, dude, you're misreading it entirely. The Sharps love

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Speaker 2: this play and they love that you're doing it. They've

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Speaker 2: been calling me in saying, make sure Colin takes the

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Speaker 2: Bears at plus two and a half. This game opened

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Speaker 2: at four. It's been bet to two and a half

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Speaker 2: by the wise guys. The public is on the Buccaneers

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Speaker 2: and this is one of those. And there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of this this week classic overreaction to what people saw

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Speaker 2: in Week one and letting that play into their decision

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Speaker 2: making for week two. And that's a mistake that a

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Speaker 2: lot of people make. There's a stat I can give

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Speaker 2: you right now. Since twenty twelve teams that lost by

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Speaker 2: double digits, the Bears playing against teams that did not

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Speaker 2: lose by double digits, so that team would have to

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Speaker 2: have won the game or lost by less than ten.

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Speaker 2: That's the Buccaneers, the team that lost by double digits

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Speaker 2: on the road since twenty twelve, twenty four and one

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Speaker 2: against the spread. So there are two teams that fit

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Speaker 2: that criteria this week. The Bears are one of them.

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Speaker 2: And look, there was so much hype on the Bears

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Speaker 2: before the season began, and there was no hype on

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Speaker 2: the Box. So naturally, with the way the Bears got

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Speaker 2: beat and the way the Bucks won, there's going to

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Speaker 2: be a little bit of a flip. This script is

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Speaker 2: going to be flipped. But look, the Bears offense, they

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Speaker 2: had twenty two first downs, they had more time of

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Speaker 2: possession than the Packers, they had three tonovers and four sacks. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: the Buccaneers defense gave up three hundred and forty four

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Speaker 2: passing yards. They gave up six yards per play, not

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Speaker 2: six yards per pass attempt, six yards per play and

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Speaker 2: seven yards per pass attempt. So Minnesota had three turnovers,

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Speaker 2: including Kirk in the red zone late in the first half,

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Speaker 2: that would have put them up seventeen to ten. And

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Speaker 2: that would have been a different a different game. So

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Speaker 2: I like what we're seeing here with the Bears as underdogs.

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Speaker 2: It's sharp. I've played it, okay.

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Speaker 1: I don't like favorites much. I took one last week

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Speaker 1: and got burned. I'll get to that in a second.

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Speaker 1: But I do have a theory that if you have

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Speaker 1: a capable quarterback and a good coach and are humiliated

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Speaker 1: in a standalone game on team, you'll empty the bag

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Speaker 1: following week. Play with great emotion and focus. Giants. It's

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Speaker 1: now minus four at DraftKings, Arizona. I like the Giants

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Speaker 1: a lot sharper square play it.

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Speaker 2: Play it. Play it in your survivor pools. Don't waste

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Speaker 2: your early season picks on the Bills or the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: or anyone else. Play the Giants. I actually got this

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Speaker 2: at five and feel like I got the worst of

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Speaker 2: the number. I'm a little surprised it's moved to four,

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Speaker 2: but this is one of those spots, right you're going

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Speaker 2: to play the team that just got blown out. Look, Arizona,

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Speaker 2: they didn't win that game so much. They didn't they

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Speaker 2: didn't cover that game so much as why by the way,

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Speaker 2: I'm counting a cover for Arizona as a win. That's

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Speaker 2: how that's how low the expectations were. But they did

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Speaker 2: play a game in which the other team practically gave

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Speaker 2: them the game, and so this is not going to

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Speaker 2: be the same scenario. Brian Dayball is a much better coach.

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Speaker 2: It's a coaching mismatch. Look, they stunk it. They played

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Speaker 2: a team that was just much better at that moment,

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Speaker 2: a really good defense. They didn't have the right game plan.

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Speaker 2: You can came up with all the excuses whatever you want.

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Speaker 2: At the end of the day, the scenario here is

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Speaker 2: you take the Giants.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I don't love the number. I'd like it better

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Speaker 1: at three, but I'm gonna take Kansas City. Andy Reid

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Speaker 1: historically off a buyer with extra time is money. They

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Speaker 1: didn't have Travis Kelcey. He's the greatest receiving tight end ever.

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Speaker 1: He'll get fifteen targets this week. Jacksonville struggled mightily and won.

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Speaker 1: So if they'd have lost an Indy right and being humiliated,

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Speaker 1: I'd stay away. They were outplayed in one. Okay, Kansas

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Speaker 1: City's defense, I don't know about anybody else. They got

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Speaker 1: a consistent pass rush without Chris Jones and oh, by

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Speaker 1: the way, the Lions O line is good and they

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Speaker 1: were in Jared Goff's face. I think this is one

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Speaker 1: of these. I've seen these two teams play twice last year.

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Speaker 1: The gap is bigger. It wasn't closed in one off season.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take Kansas City minus three and a

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Speaker 1: half and I think they win by a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: All right, So there's a couple different scenarios here. And

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Speaker 2: you're right about the Chiefs and you're right about the Lions,

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Speaker 2: and that plays into a Lion Seahawks game, which I

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Speaker 2: might try to convince you to bet. But with that

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Speaker 2: game against the Lions, the Chiefs actually only gave up

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Speaker 2: fourteen offensive points. Don't know, there was a pick six?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: No, right? And so here's where where sort of the

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Speaker 2: sentiment and what you believe about a roster and what

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Speaker 2: you as an analyst who was much more sophisticated about

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Speaker 2: football than you let people believe. Let's that play into Okay,

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Speaker 2: this game opened to two and a half and then

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Speaker 2: it got to three, and now is at three and

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Speaker 2: a half. So the number has been moving against your

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Speaker 2: decision right here for me, once it got to three

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Speaker 2: and a half, it was a pass. Like I didn't

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Speaker 2: want to play Kansas City as more than a field

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Speaker 2: goal favorite on the road because then you start getting

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Speaker 2: into trends that go against Patrick Mahomes. So the wise

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Speaker 2: guys liked it at two and a half, they liked it, Okay,

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Speaker 2: at three, it's a pass. At three and a.

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Speaker 1: Half, Okay, Well that's why we do this. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a coaching mismatch, but I'm going to do

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Speaker 1: it anyway. I think Brandon Staley for the first time,

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Speaker 1: players are criticizing him. The media in LA crushed him.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Chargers minus three at Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Tannehill miss spots, didn't look good. Vrabel criticized him publicly.

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Speaker 1: He's a much better coach than Brandon Staley. I can't

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Speaker 1: believe this roster can go zero to two. I can't

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Speaker 1: believe it. Chargers minus three. What say you sharper square one.

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Speaker 2: Thing I want to clarify about the Chiefs like I

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Speaker 2: want to like, I believe they're going to win by

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Speaker 2: the touchdown that you say they will. I'm just saying

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Speaker 2: for people who are listening, the value like what professionals

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Speaker 2: are thinking about when it gets to three and a half.

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Speaker 2: They're not going to play it because there's no value anymore.

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Speaker 2: Not that they don't think the Chiefs are going to

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Speaker 2: win big. Just to be clear, in this game, the

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Speaker 2: first thing you said, it's a coaching mismatch. And so

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Speaker 2: why would you lean into a coach who in two

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Speaker 2: seasons of coaching has not proven any ability to put

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Speaker 2: his team in a position to win with the kinds

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Speaker 2: of decisions that he makes. He has more talent at

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Speaker 2: the offense on the offensive side of the ball. Colin,

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Speaker 2: you preach this all the time. I listened to your

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Speaker 2: fabulous radio show. One of your primary theories defensive coaches

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Speaker 2: with offensive genius players is not a good match, right?

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Speaker 2: How many times have you said that? And so all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, we're leaning into Brandon Staley on the

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Speaker 2: road as a favorite against a much better football coach,

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Speaker 2: against a defensive line than's good. Fierce Jeffrey Simmons is

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Speaker 2: an All Pro caliber player, and Mike Rabel, by the way,

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Speaker 2: one of the best underdog coaches in the NFL twenty

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Speaker 2: four to nine and one as an underdog of three

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Speaker 2: or more, including this past week against the Saints. There's

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Speaker 2: a handful of coaches that every professional better is thinking

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Speaker 2: about when they are looking to bet. Mike Vrabel, John Harbaugh,

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Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick. Those are the guys

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Speaker 2: that you want to be betting on as underdogs.

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Speaker 1: All right, A lot of times you try to convince

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Speaker 1: me to bet ugly games. So I'm going to give

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Speaker 1: you a little my belief system here. The NFC South

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Speaker 1: is bad. Nobody's really good enough to beat their rivals

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Speaker 1: on the road. They'll all win their home games. So

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Speaker 1: Carolina at home getting a field goal against New Orleans.

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Speaker 1: I mean, New Orleans had a couple of big pop plays,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think anybody in this division is going

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Speaker 1: on the road and beating their rivals. I'm gonna take Carolina.

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Speaker 1: They hung with Atlanta. I think Carolina is the side

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Speaker 1: plus three sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Totally sharp. They don't love it. But when we look

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Speaker 2: at some metrics, and you can see this at actionnetwork

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Speaker 2: dot com or in the Action Network app, we will

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Speaker 2: list the percentage of bets coming in on a game,

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Speaker 2: and we will list the percentage of money coming in

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Speaker 2: in a game, And those two things are not necessarily correlated.

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Speaker 2: Bets are actual number of bets one ticket, two ticket,

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Speaker 2: three ticket, four tickets. But you could have one ticket

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Speaker 2: that is worth one hundred thousand dollars and ten tickets

345
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Speaker 2: that are worth ten dollars, and the number of bets

346
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Speaker 2: will not equal the number of money. Money is usually

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Speaker 2: an indicator of what professional betters are doing. Bets are

348
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Speaker 2: an indicator of what the public, the squares are doing.

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Speaker 2: The bets in this game are on the Saints. The

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Speaker 2: money in this game, by a two thirds majority, is

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Speaker 2: on the Panthers. And it's because of what you just said.

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Speaker 2: You've got a division game, you got a home dog,

353
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Speaker 2: prime time. It sets up nicely. That's why they're betting

354
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Speaker 2: the Panthers. It's not because they believe in Bryce Young.

355
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Speaker 2: It's not because they think the Panthers are very good.

356
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Speaker 2: Their defense did not play great. And it's not because

357
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Speaker 2: the Saints are so amazing either, right like Tannehill looks

358
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 2: a little bit washed, and yet they barely beat that

359
00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,640
Speaker 2: Tennessee team. They needed some turnover. So it's purely sort

360
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Speaker 2: of number play.

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Speaker 1: So I'm disgusted with myself betting this Washington plus three

362
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Speaker 1: and a half. At Denver, I had a executive, well

363
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Speaker 1: a scout call me on Monday, he said, Colin, he goes,

364
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Speaker 1: I know you like Russell. He's missing, He's there's wide

365
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: open people here. These are good schemes, these are good plays.

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Speaker 1: He can't see him. He's like, this offense is until

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Speaker 1: they get Judy. There is no juice to this offense.

368
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 1: The Raiders are not good. And the Raiders took the

369
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Speaker 1: lead and never looked back. Washington's defense is good. They're good.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna keep it.

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Speaker 1: All Washington games are gonna look the same. They're all

372
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Speaker 1: gonna be awful. Television three and a half is too much.

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Speaker 1: I gotta take Washington Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Well, look this, this game and the Colts Texans game

375
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 2: are battling for the corner TV game, you know the

376
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 2: game at the sportsbook that they put on the corner

377
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 2: because nobody really wants to watch it, but they got

378
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 2: to have every game on. I agree with you about

379
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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I watched that game and I was texting

380
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 2: with a buddy and who's inside the NFL, And I

381
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 2: was just like, Sean Payn's a genius, Like he was

382
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 2: calling such good plays and they looked so much better.

383
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 2: And it fell apart because Russell Wilson started to lose

384
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Speaker 2: a little bit of steam and so it's a very

385
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Speaker 2: challenging game. I think that Washington's roster is not as

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Speaker 2: good as the Las Vegas roster. I think that this

387
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 2: is a huge coaching mismatch. I think Jimmy g is

388
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: better than Sam Howe, and I think that I would

389
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 2: expect a different kind of scheme from Sean Payton now

390
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 2: that he's seen what Russell can do over the course

391
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Speaker 2: of a game when other teams are adjusting. Also, I'm

392
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Speaker 2: still a big believer in Denver's defense. I think it's

393
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Speaker 2: a really good defense. Washington, to me, was a terrible team.

394
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Speaker 2: Like if Arizona has anything more serviceable than a quarterback

395
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 2: who who still did not know the names of his

396
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,719
Speaker 2: teammates because he had signed two weeks earlier, they probably

397
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 2: lose that game. So for me, this game is a

398
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Speaker 2: pass like. I'm not interested the line has moved in

399
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Speaker 2: Denver's direction from three to three and a half. That's

400
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 2: more of a wise guy play than a public play.

401
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: But I like your sentiment. I like that you're thinking

402
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: about betting ugly betting the NFL. Winning the NFL means

403
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 2: betting bad quarterbacks, but here you got two bad quarterbacks

404
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 2: and not a lot of a lot of edge.

405
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Speaker 1: Okay, So we do two things after I make my picks,

406
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,479
Speaker 1: a game you try to talk me into, and then

407
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 1: a game I just want your opinion that I could

408
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Speaker 1: be convinced of. So New England getting two and a

409
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 1: half at home is interesting if you look. Miami has

410
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Speaker 1: with to a beaten Belichick, but two averages, three touchdowns,

411
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Speaker 1: two picks, eighty eight passer ratings. They've scuffed and found

412
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Speaker 1: ways to win. I thought New England out played Philadelphia

413
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Speaker 1: for big chunks of that game, and I would take

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Speaker 1: the points with New England here, Sharper.

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Speaker 2: Square, totally sharp. I know you are our listener of

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Speaker 2: the Favorites podcast. You know that we get calls every

417
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Speaker 2: week from professional betters who will comment on one of

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Speaker 2: the episodes of the podcast that we did earlier in

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Speaker 2: the week where we're talking about our early leans. The

420
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: Patriots were an early lean. We got a lot of

421
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Speaker 2: sharp calls, a lot of professional betters calling us saying

422
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Speaker 2: they love the Patriots here and I'm with you. I

423
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 2: watched that that New England Philly game. New England dominated

424
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 2: that game, and they were the better team. They were

425
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 2: the better defense. Mac Jones looked pretty good at times.

426
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: Bill O'Brien put him in the right positions to succeed.

427
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Speaker 2: Down to the end. They had a chance to win

428
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: that game. It's if a phantom holding call on a

429
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 2: two point CONVERSI kept them from covering that game, Colin,

430
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:00,959
Speaker 2: I can't even talk about like I got to tell

431
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 2: you for about I had the Pats and for about

432
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 2: twenty four hours until the Jets won, thank god, and

433
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: I had the Jets. I was kind of sick to

434
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 2: my stomach. I couldn't.

435
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: I listened to the Colts game and the Patriots game. I

436
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: lost both. I had them both.

437
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 2: I still love my side. Listen, you deserve to win

438
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 2: both of those games. You do. And I have a

439
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 2: saying the right side is the winning side. So when

440
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: you lose, you lose. But I will tell you that

441
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 2: we do these luck rankings at Action where basically you

442
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: take out the noise, you level the playing field, you

443
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 2: take out the random penalties, you take out the turnovers,

444
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 2: and you come up with what we call the luck

445
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 2: rankings that basically determines the luckiest teams on a week

446
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 2: to week basis and you aggregate it so it's the

447
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 2: luckiest team over the course of a season. The Eagles

448
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 2: and the Lions were the two luckiest teams in Week one.

449
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 2: The Eagles barely beat the Patriots. I know what I saw.

450
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: The Patriots are a really good team. The Patriots are

451
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 2: getting a very overhyped Dolphins team that needed a lot

452
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 2: of help from the opponent to win on the road.

453
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: Two is not going to throw for five hundred yards again.

454
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 2: I hope Tyreek Ko has another huge day. I got

455
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: him at nine to one to lead the league in

456
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: receiving yards. But I think the Patriots are the right

457
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 2: side here.

458
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 1: All right now, talk me into a game, Detroit Seattle,

459
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: go for it.

460
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 2: Look, this is the other game that fits that trend

461
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 2: I mentioned before, which is twenty four to one against

462
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 2: the spread for teams like Seattle when they are on

463
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 2: the road coming off a double digit loss, playing a

464
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 2: team that basically won or lost by less than ten

465
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 2: the week before. On top of that, you're getting a

466
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 2: team in the Lions that has so much hype into

467
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 2: the season. They beat the super Bowl champs. They beat

468
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl champs on the road opening game, prime time.

469
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 2: Seattle loses ugly to the Rams, Like this is an

470
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: over hyped game, This is an inflation game in terms

471
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 2: the line is higher than it should be. Like, you

472
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,239
Speaker 2: have to take Seattle here, There's just no question about it.

473
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 2: You're gonna bet a quarterback that might make you uncomfortable.

474
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 2: You're gonna be upset that the tackles aren't playing. But

475
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 2: the Tritch defense is just not as good as it

476
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 2: should be for a team to be favored by five

477
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 2: and a half some places six. So you gotta suck

478
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: it up and you gotta bet Seattle, all right.

479
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: Chad Millman, c CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.

480
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: My friend, it's great to see a bad week for me,

481
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: But you know what, Tom Brady twelve years, double digit picks,

482
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 1: who cares LFG Let's go.

483
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: You know what, it's the end of the season that matters,

484
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 2: not the beginning of the season. And I say that

485
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: as someone who like in my five picks that we

486
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 2: talk about, I went two and three and like it happens,

487
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: It's gonna happen all the time. But also you look

488
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 2: at it, I like after that, I don't know if

489
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 2: you ever do this, but like at the end of

490
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 2: that day. Between one and four and two and three

491
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 2: is everything, because two and three you can look at

492
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 2: your picks and say, okay, I'm two and three. But

493
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 2: that Patriots game, like I analyzed that the right way.

494
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 2: I would have been three and two if not for

495
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 2: some bad luck. So I felt better about myself.

496
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll try going on five. I couldn't even look

497
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: myself in the mirror. It was awful. It was tough

498
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 1: for five.

499
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 2: Did you not make any of the picks that we

500
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 2: talked about.

501
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 1: I should have made the Cleveland bet. I didn't. I'm

502
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: not betting. I'm I'm just listen, fairly bitter. It's not

503
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 1: my personality. I bounced back. I had a cocktail Tuesday night.

504
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 1: I was good. Had I said the Jets with a

505
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 1: better play, and I said the lines over the Chiefs.

506
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: So I had. I had some stuff. I didn't include those,

507
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: but I did have. I thought the Jets were a

508
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 1: better play, and I thought the Lions were a better play.

509
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 2: Listen, that is one of your greatest traits. You don't

510
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 2: wear it, you move on quickly.

511
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: I like that. I don't wear it all right, buddy,

512
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: good seeing you taught you the volume