1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: That's not what you want, in my opinion for the sport. 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: That's not what should be determining the champion, who can 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: be the healthiest at the end of the season. Welcome 4 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: everyone to the Monday edition of Fair Territory. I hope 5 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: everyone had a great weekend, certainly a fascinating weekend of baseball. 6 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: And we're going to start today with the guy we've 7 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:26,279 Speaker 1: been talking a lot about lately, that guy in New York, 8 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: number ninety nine, Aaron Judge. Why are we talking about him? Well, 9 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: let's see two home runs on Sunday, seven home runs 10 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: in his last six games. He now has fifty one 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,319 Speaker 1: for the season. He is on a pace to hit 12 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 1: sixty three home runs, which of course would break his 13 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: record from twenty twenty two. And the most remarkable thing 14 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: to me is when you look at his rate stats 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: from this season and compare them to twenty twenty two, 16 00:00:55,000 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: he is well ahead in those particular statistics. And I 17 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: want to show you right now just what I'm talking about. Yes, 18 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:05,559 Speaker 1: he's ahead in the home run pace by just one 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: but the rate stats, Wow, it's a significant difference ahead 20 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: of where he was two years ago. And let's take 21 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: a look right here twenty twenty two. You can see 22 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: the numbers right there. Three eleven batting average, four to 23 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 1: twenty five on base, six eighty six slug, one point 24 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: one point one one ops. Okay, that's pretty good. It 25 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: was good for an MVP type season, and he won 26 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,919 Speaker 1: the MVP. Two years later, we're looking at a batting 27 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: average of three thirty three. That's twenty two points higher 28 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: behind Bobby Witt at three forty seven, but pretty darn good. 29 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: Four sixty five on base that's forty points ahead of 30 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: where he was two years ago, leads the majors. Seven 31 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: thirty six slug that's fifty points ahead of where he 32 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: was two years ago, and a one point two zero 33 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: one ops ninety points ahead of where he was in 34 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. And if you look at OPS plus, 35 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: which of course normalizes the ops for the league and parks, 36 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: gives you a good context. He is on an historic pace. 37 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: Now will he keep this up? I don't know, but 38 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: he certainly is hot right now. And keep in mind 39 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: to if you look at the Yankee schedule, their final 40 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: ten series, seven of them are against what I would 41 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: call non contenders. They've got series left against the Royals, 42 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 1: the Red Sox, who may be out of it by 43 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: the time the Yankees get to them in mid September, 44 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: and one in late September against the Orioles. So when 45 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: you're playing non contenders, I would expect he's going to 46 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: be pitched to. Why not. These teams basically have nothing 47 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: to lose. They're not exactly an impedant race, So go ahead, 48 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: pitch to Aaron. Judge also one thing that favors him 49 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: in my opinion going forward in terms of the home 50 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: run chase, the record chase from two years ago. He's 51 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 1: been through this once before. He knows how to handle 52 00:02:57,600 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 1: it better than he did then, and when the meet 53 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 1: crush comes, I don't know that it will be as 54 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: great as it was then, and he will be better equipped. 55 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: I would think to go forward with it to kind 56 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 1: of absorb it into his daily routine. Not that it 57 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: was so bad the last time. I don't think his 58 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 1: daily routine changed. The pressure changed, but he certainly, after 59 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: experiencing it two years ago, would be in position to 60 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: handle that pressure. Now. We've talked a lot about Judge 61 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: versus Bobby Wick Junior for MVP. My opinions are clear. 62 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 1: I've stated to them again in today's wind up. In 63 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: the athletic Judge is the overwhelming front runner. It doesn't 64 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: mean that Bobby Wick Junior is not worthy of being 65 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: in a conversation. Bobby Wick Junr. Is going to have 66 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: a ten more season. That looks like that's pretty good, folks. 67 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: So when we talk about Aaron Judge as MVP, I 68 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: have no problem with that. Of course, he is the 69 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: runaway favorite, as I said, but don't forget the guy 70 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: in Kansas City, and don't tell me as a lot 71 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: of you are that I can't even have them in 72 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: the same breath. They're in my same breath. Now let's 73 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: turn to the National League, where a more interesting MVP 74 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 1: race is taking shape. Perhaps Choe Otani has been the 75 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 1: leading candidate all season long, but Francisco Lindor, a much 76 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: different type of candidate, is having a monster I don't know, 77 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: final four months. You would say he wasn't a great 78 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 1: player in April in most of May, but he has 79 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: been a great player since then, and he right now 80 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 1: is legitimate candidate. Now Here are their statistics of relevance. 81 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 1: And we're gonna go deeper into this conversation because this 82 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: only begins to tell part of the story. Otani forty forty. 83 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: We know that he got to that this weekend, forty 84 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: one homers, forty stolen bases. He looks pretty good for 85 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 1: forty five forty five. I don't know about fifty to fifty, 86 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: but that would be cool. Ops. Nine to ninety three. 87 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: Lindor twenty seven homers, twenty five steals. He has an 88 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: eight twenty six ops. He's looking pretty good for thirty 89 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: thirty and his OPS is I don't know, some one 90 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: hundred and seven the points below Otani's. Okay, that's a 91 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 1: significant difference, of course, But what is the huge difference 92 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: between these players this season? One plays defense and the 93 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: other doesn't. Otani, of course, would be the first DH 94 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: only to win this award. He wasn't a DH only 95 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: before because he was pitching when he won twice previously. 96 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: Lindor because of his elite defense at shortstop kind of 97 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: evens out the conversation in terms of wins above replacement. Now, 98 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: I'm not a guy who believes wins above replacement is 99 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 1: the all determinate metric for the MVP race. It's not. 100 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: It shouldn't be. There are other things that go into it, 101 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 1: and when you have a DH. To me, it's kind 102 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: of difficult to measure where his actual value is. You 103 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: don't have defense, obviously, but how much do you penalize 104 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: him for and for that matter, how much do you 105 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: reward Lindor for his defense when defensive metrics, as we 106 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: all know, are so what kind of debatable? So it's 107 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: an interesting race. I believe it will be determined by 108 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 1: what happens in September. If Lindor goes nuts or continues 109 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: to go nuts and leads the Mets into the postseason, 110 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: he'll have a much stronger case. He has a case 111 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: right now, a good case. But in my view, at 112 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: this moment, O'tani is still the leader. Finally, in this 113 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: first part of the show, I want to talk about 114 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: the races because I don't want to be a spoil 115 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: sport or a party pooper or whatever term you might 116 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: want to use. But if you look at the playoff odds, 117 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: the races, or at least the playoff teams are pretty 118 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: much set. The races are not entirely set, and we'll 119 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 1: get to that in a second. But let's look at 120 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 1: the playoff odds for both leagues and you'll see what 121 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: I'm talking about we have six playoff teams in each 122 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: league as we go forward here, that's the way we 123 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: do it now. The last couple of years in the 124 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: National League, the Dodgers are at one hundred percent. This 125 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,679 Speaker 1: is just to make the playoffs. The Phillies nine point five, 126 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: the Brewers ninety nine point two, the Diamondbacks ninety six 127 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: point six, the Padres ninety five point three. That's five 128 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: teams with ninety five percent playoff odds are better than 129 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: the Braves are last among this group at eighty percent. 130 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: The Mets are the first team out in terms of 131 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: playoff odds. They're just under twenty percent. American League a 132 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: little bit more spread out, but not a whole lot. 133 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: Yankees at ninety nine point nine percent, Orioles ninety eight 134 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: point eight, Guardians ninety six point three. Then you have 135 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: three teams in the eighties, actually barely in the eighties. 136 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: Houston and Minnesota are both at eighty nine point seven. 137 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: Kansas City and eighty percent. Odd man out in terms 138 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: of playoff odds again is Boston. They are at about 139 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: twenty five percent. Now. The caveat here is that a 140 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: year ago, at this point, on this date, the Marlins 141 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: were a five hundred team. They were at eighteen point 142 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: four percent, somewhere between where the Mets and Red Sox 143 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: are are now. So it is entirely possible that a 144 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: team on the fringe could get hot in September and 145 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: yet steal one of those wildcard spots. But it's going 146 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: to take a big run, and it's going to take 147 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: some poor play by one of the teams that we 148 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: just mentioned. With the big playoff odds of over eighty percent, 149 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: the real action here might be in the races for 150 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: best overall record and the races for buys in each league. 151 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: And I want to show you where those standings lie 152 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 1: at this particular moment, because that is a little bit 153 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: more interesting, a little less separated between the halves and 154 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: have nots. In the National League, you've got the Dodgers 155 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: and the Dodgers at this point, they've taken a one 156 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: and a half game lead over the Phillies for best 157 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: overall record and a two and a half game lead 158 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: over the Brewers. Diamondbacks three games behind the Dodgers both 159 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: in the n West and the overall standings. The Padres 160 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: four and a half games back, So the Dodgers are 161 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: not exactly comfortable. But about a week ago, it looked 162 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphiaffillies, and Milwaukee Brewers were 163 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: all at about the same place in terms of record, 164 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: and that they all might be just competing for the 165 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 1: best record. That still could happen, of course, but the 166 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 1: Dodgers do have a slight cushion right now. Let's look 167 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: at the American League. It's kind of similar to what 168 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: I'm talking about here, actually even closer. The Yankees best 169 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 1: record in the American League seventy seven and fifty four, 170 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: The Guardians and the Orioles a game and a half back, 171 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: so they're within striking distance of the best record, and 172 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: the Orioles, of course with the ALE East title in 173 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 1: their views as well. Minnesota four and a half games back, 174 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 1: Kansas City four and a half games back, Houston six 175 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: and a half games back. Again, this is for best 176 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: overall record, so we're gonna have action in September. The 177 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 1: best action might be in some of the awards races, 178 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: the NLMVP race, but the race is for best overall record, 179 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: and for the buys, they're going to be rather interesting 180 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: because teams will need to decide how to handle their pitching, 181 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,319 Speaker 1: how hard to push, just exactly how they want to 182 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: position themselves for October. And October, of course, is what 183 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: this thing is all about. So September is almost here. 184 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: We've got a lot to look forward to, and I'm 185 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: sure I'm pretty confident that we're going to have a 186 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: race of some kind, even with the playoff odds as 187 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: strong as they are for the twelve teams that we mentioned. 188 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: Time now for the inside dish, the part of the 189 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: show where I go inside a story. I've written a 190 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: trend in the game, something else entirely, and today I 191 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: kind of want to continue the conversation we just started 192 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 1: in the lead and continue a conversation that I started 193 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: in my column on Friday, in which I talked about 194 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: various National League potential playoff rotations. Now, in that column, 195 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: I focused on the Dodgers because of their tattered state, 196 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: but I really want to talk more about the Diamondbacks 197 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: today because the Diamondbacks are the hottest team in the majors. 198 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 1: They have the best offense in the Majors according to 199 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: runs per game, and in my view, they have potentially 200 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: a really strong postseason rotation. I'm talking about at the top, 201 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: Zach Allen and Eduardo Rodriguez. Right now, you've got Brandon 202 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 1: Fought as well. You've got Ryan Nelson, who has replaced 203 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: Jordan Montgomery, the twenty five million dollar man in their rotation. 204 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: And don't forget a guy who pitched yesterday, Merrill Kelly, 205 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 1: who is coming off a long time of being inactive 206 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,079 Speaker 1: with his injury, but has pitched of late. I made 207 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 1: a couple of starts since coming back, and yesterday pitched 208 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 1: fairly well. He looks like he's rounding in the form. 209 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 1: Yesterday was six innings, four runs against the Red Sox. 210 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: The Diamondbacks, the way I see them, are maybe the 211 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: best position team in terms of their rotation. Now. They 212 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,319 Speaker 1: are not the only National League team with a potentially 213 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: strong postseason rotation. And I know Phillies fans are already 214 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: jumping up and down and screaming that I am ignoring 215 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 1: their team, especially when Ranger Suarez came back this weekend 216 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: and pitched well against Kansas City five innings, one run. 217 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: The Phillies have a potentially great postseason rotation as well. 218 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: I'm talking about Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler and Rangers 219 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 1: Suarez and Christopher Sanchez. Now, let's look at the groups 220 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: that are in play here. I'm leaving out Atlanta for 221 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: the moment. Atlanta is kind of a fringy playoff team 222 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: right now. They're in great position, I know, and they 223 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 1: do have a really good potential top of the rotation. 224 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 1: Chris Sale, Max Fried, Raynaldo Lopez, Charlie Morton would be 225 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: okay as the fourth. So I'm listing four guys in 226 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: each particular case here. And the reason I'm listening four 227 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 1: is because of the Division series, the way the schedule 228 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: sets up, you're going to need four starters. You can't 229 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 1: get away with three because of the way the off 230 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: days are. So the Dodgers, this is their wishful thinking rotation. 231 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty, Tyler Glasstown currently on the IL, Yeshinobu Yamamoto 232 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: currently on the IL. And Gavin Stone, who has been 233 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: their best pitcher all year, who is now at one 234 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five and a third innings and oh 235 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: my gosh, it's a career high. And guess what his 236 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,080 Speaker 1: last two starts have been brilliant. He does not appear 237 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: to be falling apart the Phillies guys. I mentioned the Diamondbacks. Guys, 238 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: I mentioned, let's look at that board one more time 239 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: and I'll give you the rest of this because it's 240 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: pretty interesting the Padres. Look at them at the bottom, 241 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: Dylan Cees, Michael King, who's been really good this year, 242 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 1: Joe Musgrove now off his injury, and you Darvish came 243 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: off the restricted list on Friday. He's got a chance 244 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: now to join their rotation, rejoin it after missing some time. 245 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: He's been throwing the entire time, so he's got a 246 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 1: chance too to be part of their mix. And then 247 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 1: there is Milwaukee, a team that has had one blow 248 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 1: to its rotation after another and somehow is still surviving. 249 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 1: We've got Freddy Perrault at the top, Tobias Myers Rookie 250 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: of the Year candidate, probably not gonna win with Paul 251 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: Skeins and Jackson Merrily in the mix, but he's had 252 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: an amazing season, and Frankie Montas and Colin Ray. It's 253 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: not great like the other teams, but the Brewers seem 254 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: to find ways to win no matter who they throw 255 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: out there. Remember they lost Corbin Burns in a trade. 256 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: They never had Brandon Woodruff because of an injury. They 257 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 1: barely had Wade Miley because of an injury, and Robert Gasser, 258 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: their top prospect, underwent Tommy John surgery, and they still 259 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: are running away with the NL Central. So as we 260 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: go forward here, none of what I just said or 261 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: described is set in stone. Why because as we've seen 262 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: all season long, pitchers keep getting hurt, and with a 263 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: month ago in the season, I am fully confident, unfortunately 264 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 1: that one picture we just listed is going to have 265 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: some kind of physical setback or physical problem that surfaces. 266 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: That's the issue here when it comes to the Dodgers. 267 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: They've got to get glass Now back going again. They 268 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: said this wasn't serious, but it's going to be more 269 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: than fifteen days. And Yamamoto, who knows what he's going 270 00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: to be. He hasn't pitched since June fifteenth, he's had 271 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 1: a shoulder issue. Now he's looking good, he's about to 272 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: start a rehab assignment. Everything is pointing on the up 273 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: arrow for him, and that's great, but again, we don't 274 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: know what we're going to get out of him. The 275 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: Dodgers don't know. That said. The way the Dodgers have 276 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: handled their pitching, including glass Now, in this recent Ileston 277 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: they have pointed everything toward the postseason, and that's the 278 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: way a team like that should be operating. So it's 279 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: going to be a really interesting September as we go 280 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 1: forward here, and it's going to be a really interesting 281 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: postseason to see which teams can get through it four 282 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: rounds for all but the two teams that get the buys. 283 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: That's not easy to do with the state of pitching today, 284 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 1: and beyond that, you have all of these different innings 285 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: issues and injury issues that we've seen surface. But I 286 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: want to go back to the Diamondbacks because I just 287 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: love where they are. Their bullpen is shakier than some. 288 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: But if Edward Rodriguez is back to form, and he 289 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: certainly seems to be so far, and Gallen finds his 290 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: stride and he was good against the Red Sox this weekend, 291 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: and then you get maybe Merrill Kelly back in the mix, 292 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: you've got more depth there than most teams can even 293 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: dream of. The Padres two are looking better with Darbish 294 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: back in the mix. That makes Waldron kind of a 295 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 1: fifth guy if you even need him. But let's see 296 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 1: what Darvish is after missing so much time. So it's 297 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: going to be a really interesting month of September in 298 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 1: terms of these rotations and how they set up for 299 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: the postseason and really what we're down to in our 300 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: sport right now, and it's not a healthy place to be, 301 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: is a battle of survival, a survival of the fittest 302 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 1: kind of test. That's not what you want in my 303 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: opinion for the sport. That's not what should be determining 304 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: the champion who can be the healthiest at the end 305 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: of the season. But that is where we are, and 306 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 1: because there is such attrition with starting pitching, these kind 307 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: of analyzes are at least relevant, even though they're not 308 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: going necessarily hold through the end of the season. We'll 309 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: be back after a quick word from Aj Prasinski, Eric 310 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: Kratz and Scott Braun. 311 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 2: I love a great deal, but I'm not going to 312 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 2: run sprints in the outfield just to save a few bucks. 313 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 2: It has to be easy, no hoops, no bs. 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Seemnt mobile for details. 332 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 1: Time now for Grill and Ken, the part of the 333 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: show where I answer your questions, and we've got some 334 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,360 Speaker 1: good ones this week, so let's get right to them. 335 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: First question comes from Eric Johnson, who asked, with Dylan 336 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: Cruz making his debut Monday night, Dylan Cruz top prospect 337 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: coming out of last year's draft. What are your thoughts 338 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,439 Speaker 1: about the Nationals heading into twenty twenty five are the 339 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: Learners expected to spend again this offseason. What are your 340 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 1: thoughts about Washington as a dark horse landing spot in 341 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: the Jan Soto sweepstakes hashtag come home Sodo Well. Expecting 342 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:45,199 Speaker 1: the Learners to spend is a question or a topic 343 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: that I don't know that I have the answer to. 344 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: I don't see Juan Soto coming back to DC. Remember 345 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,919 Speaker 1: they offered him four hundred and forty million over fifteen 346 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: years a couple of years back. That prompted the trade 347 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: of Juan Soto. And while this ownership has spent at 348 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:03,199 Speaker 1: times in the past Scherzer and Strasburg and Corbyn, for 349 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 1: the most part, their big investments have been in starting pitchers. 350 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: Remember they lost Harper in free agency, they traded Soto, 351 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 1: and they traded Trade Turner. Is it possible they jump 352 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: into this thing, Sure, it's possible. But at the same 353 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: time they're going to outbid the Mets and the Yankees, 354 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 1: and I don't see that happening now. I do expect, however, 355 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 1: the Learners to spend at some level this offseason. In fact, 356 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: I would say they had better. They've got a really 357 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: promising young group of players right now, and Dylan Cruz 358 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: is merely the latest. All of the guys who came 359 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,400 Speaker 1: back in the Sodo trade, we've seen some of them now, 360 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 1: Mackenzie Gore, cj Abrams, and now James Wood. Those three 361 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: in particular, they are centerpiece type players, cornerstone type players 362 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: going forward, and the Nationals have some other young starters 363 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: who are looking good as well. Patrick Corbyn comes off 364 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: the payroll after this season. They've still got a few 365 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: more years of Strasburg paying that out, but their payroll 366 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,439 Speaker 1: is going to be in much better shape. There is 367 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: no reason why they shouldn't be a team that picks 368 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: and chooses in free agency and maybe picks off even 369 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 1: a star or two. I just don't think it will 370 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 1: be at the level of Juan Soto. All right, now, 371 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: let's get to the next question. This comes from Cody. 372 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 1: Cody asks, based on A's President Dave Cavill's promise of 373 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: a one hundred and eighty million dollars payroll by Vegas, 374 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 1: do you see the A's spending big this off season. Yes, 375 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: I've written about this at length. The A's has said 376 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,439 Speaker 1: they are going to ramp up in the Sacramento years 377 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: leading up to the opening of their new Ballpark in 378 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: Las Vegas in two thy and twenty eight. As I've written, 379 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 1: I will believe it when I see it. Now, the 380 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: A's can't go anywhere but up with their payroll. They're 381 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 1: at sixty two million or so right now, which is 382 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: essentially nothing. So yes, I do expect them to spend 383 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: some But here's the question, which players, which free Asians 384 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,399 Speaker 1: are going to want to come to Sacramento. It's a 385 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: good question since the facilities are not going to be 386 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: the level that you're going to see in actual major 387 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: league cities. And I don't want to dismiss or demean Sacramento, 388 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: but it's not an actual major league city just yet. 389 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: It's an inter a major league city that is transforming 390 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: a minor league ballpark and trying to make it into 391 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,880 Speaker 1: a major league ballpark. In my opinion, the best way 392 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: for the A's to raise payroll would be to trade 393 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: for high salary players, players who don't have a choice 394 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: because they've been traded to come to Sacramento. Easier said 395 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,359 Speaker 1: than done. You might be taking on some money that 396 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 1: isn't necessarily highly valued or in a good place in 397 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 1: terms of the contract value, but it's going to be 398 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: difficult for them to attract free agents. I would expect, 399 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 1: actually about as difficult as it's been for them to 400 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 1: get free agents to Oakland when they've been willing to 401 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: spend a little bit. They've gotten guys over the years, 402 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,199 Speaker 1: but it's been guys on the fringe, Alex Wood and 403 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 1: Russ Stripling, those types, not really big time free agents, 404 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,959 Speaker 1: not in their recent iteration under the great John Fisher ownership. 405 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the final question now, and 406 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: this one comes from Kenna Otto, who asks how good 407 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 1: is Jackson Merrill? Good question and a fair question, but 408 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: let's answer it like this. Let's look at Fangraf's version 409 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,439 Speaker 1: of war. Jackson Merrill is a top twenty player in 410 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,120 Speaker 1: the game right now, just based on that metric alone, 411 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: and that metric is not the end all be all, 412 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 1: but it is all encompassing in terms of rating a 413 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: player's offensive, defensive, and base running value. Jackson Merrill, top 414 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 1: twenty in the league is actually eighteenth on Monday morning. 415 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: And the other thing, of course, that distinguishes Jackson Merrill. 416 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: The thing that I believe the person is getting at 417 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,679 Speaker 1: with his question is, Wow, this guy is really clutch. 418 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: It's crazy. What he has done five game tying or 419 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 1: go ahead runs in the ninth inning or later in 420 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:03,199 Speaker 1: this his rookie season. Five. No other player this season 421 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,120 Speaker 1: has more than three. So you could argue that he's 422 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: been the best ninth enning hitter in the majors this season. 423 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 1: And I don't know if he has the highest ops 424 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: the ninth inning, but when you do that five times, 425 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 1: you're pretty darn good. So Jackson Merrill rookie, a guy 426 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,959 Speaker 1: who had not played center field professionally before this season. 427 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: He is a leading Rookie of the Year Canyon, along 428 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: with Paul Skins and a number of others. And in 429 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 1: my opinion right now, if I had to vote, I'd 430 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:32,679 Speaker 1: vote for this cat because what he has done for 431 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 1: the Padres, he's actually been their MVP. It's been amazing. 432 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 1: Thanks everyone for their questions, Thanks everyone for watching, for listening. 433 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: You know where to find us YouTube, Apple, Spotify, Feel 434 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: free to subscribe to like us to do whatever you 435 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: want to do to complain, you can do that too. 436 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: We will be back Thursday at twelve thirty our normal 437 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: Thursday show with the great Alana Rizzo. Have a great 438 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 1: week everyone and join us then. 439 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 4: And a reminder for everyone. If you're not part of 440 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 4: the bet mgm app, here's how you can get involved 441 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 4: and get a little something extra when you start. 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