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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: But this one is good.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 4: Throwing spect We're saying it's a catch.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right. This is the ultimate kabata.

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Speaker 3: And we are come and welcome to another edition of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network NFL Betting Podcast. I am Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 3: your host, joined by my guy, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 3: Degenerate Nation, Stucky, and our special guest Sean Kerner. We're

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Speaker 3: back to preview the AFC with the AFC South and

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Speaker 3: the AFC West.

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Speaker 5: We look at each team's win total. First off, what's

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Speaker 5: going on, Stuck, what's going on? Sean?

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Speaker 2: Happy to be that likewise?

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Speaker 5: Oh that was that was weak, guys.

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Speaker 3: It's because I didn't set one of you. It's because

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Speaker 3: I didn't tee one of you guys up. I was

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Speaker 3: being a bad host. I should have teed wonn of

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Speaker 3: you up. But yeah, let's get right too, because you

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Speaker 3: guys sound you guys sound focused.

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Speaker 5: So we're just gonna jump right in right now. We're

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Speaker 5: gonna jump right into the uh.

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Speaker 3: And of course, the Action Network NFL Betting podcast sponsored

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Speaker 3: by bet MGM, So we will look at their lines

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Speaker 3: for our wind totals and bet MGM has the Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: Colts Indianapolis Colts.

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Speaker 5: At eight and a half. We'll start with them stuck.

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Speaker 3: The Colts are eight and a half with a minus

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Speaker 3: one fifty juice toward the over, so it's trending toward nine.

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Speaker 3: This team is a team and in some flux, we

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Speaker 3: don't know exactly what's what's up with Carson Wentz.

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Speaker 5: They have some injuries on the O line. How are

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Speaker 5: you feeling about this eight and a half win total

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Speaker 5: for Indy?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they'll have I mean a lot of it is

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Speaker 4: Carson Wentz. Now he's hurt. But going into this year,

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Speaker 4: if you were a believer in Wentz being you know,

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Speaker 4: getting out of Philly and reuniting with Frank right, then

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Speaker 4: you would probably want to buy this Colts team that's

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Speaker 4: going to have an excellent offensive line. Even though Costanz

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Speaker 4: are retired. They went out and got Eric Fischer. But

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Speaker 4: that's another topic. Their offensive line is pretty banged up.

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Speaker 4: They have a lot of injuries. Who's going to be

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Speaker 4: ready by Week one? Something to keep an eye on.

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Speaker 4: But they have, you know, a good defense, solid defense. Neverflus,

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Speaker 4: I think is a great defensive coordinator, run a lot

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Speaker 4: of zone, just a very fundamental defense. Zavia Rhoades fit

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Speaker 4: right in with that zone concept in his in his

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Speaker 4: aging years, and I think he'll you know, he's got

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Speaker 4: a good year or two left as their number one corner.

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Speaker 4: But now you know Wentz. I mean, if you look

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Speaker 4: at some of the numbers, they're ugly. It's you can't

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Speaker 4: just say it was all on the Philly offensive line

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Speaker 4: and their lack of weapons. So I'm not a buyer.

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Speaker 4: Now he's hurt. I mean you might have, you know,

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Speaker 4: talk of Sam Ellinger Jacob Eeson starting out the year.

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Speaker 4: So it could be rough for this offense, especially if

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Speaker 4: the offensive line isn't healthy. They are a regression candidate

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Speaker 4: last year, plus ten in turnovers, five and two and

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Speaker 4: one score games with the easiest schedule in the league.

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Speaker 4: Now they're gonna have an easy schedule again this year.

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Speaker 4: That's what happens when you're in your division. You play

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Speaker 4: you know, the Jags and the Texans four times. So

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Speaker 4: they lost Houston and Autrey on the edge, so there

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Speaker 4: could be a drop off there. They're great on the interior,

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Speaker 4: great at linebacker. So the defense is going to be solid,

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Speaker 4: but just it comes down to the quarterback position. And

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Speaker 4: you know, here's one thing to keep in mind. This

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Speaker 4: thing could really go off the track fast. Number one,

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Speaker 4: they don't have a bye week until week fourteen. But

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Speaker 4: if you take a look at their schedule, you know,

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Speaker 4: who knows what's gonna who's gonna be healthy on the

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Speaker 4: offensive line, who knows who's going to be that quarterback.

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Speaker 4: They start with Seatta, you don't win that game, you

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Speaker 4: then have the Rams coming in, then you're at the Titans,

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Speaker 4: You're at the Dolphins, you're at the Ravens. Three straight

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Speaker 4: road games, then you come back for a free win

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Speaker 4: against Houston before you're on the road against San France.

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Speaker 4: So you start zero to five. I mean, this thing

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Speaker 4: can get messy quick, especially if you don't have a

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Speaker 4: bye week till week fourteen. So I think this number

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Speaker 4: is a bit high. It is an easy schedule, a

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Speaker 4: lot of questions corner I mean, especially with their second

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Speaker 4: cornerback as well as it's just a little bit of

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Speaker 4: the there. So there are some some holes in the

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Speaker 4: defense they have to address. The offensive line should be good,

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Speaker 4: when they get healthy. I think this is a team

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Speaker 4: I'm looking to sell, even though I love the staff.

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Speaker 4: I think they're very well coached. But I think this

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Speaker 4: number is a bit high. I project them at eight

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Speaker 4: six ish.

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Speaker 3: I think it's first of all, I don't think the

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Speaker 3: schedule is actually easy. I think everyone's just looking at

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Speaker 3: the Jags and the Texans as these four free wins,

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Speaker 3: even though the coach lost. Their only win for the

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Speaker 3: Jags last year was against the Cold. But outside of

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Speaker 3: those four teams, I mean you you kind of hit

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Speaker 3: on the start of it. You got Seattle, the Rams, Tennessee,

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins, the Ravens, the Niners, Tennessee again, the Jets.

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Speaker 5: That's an easy one. So you're up five easy ones.

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Speaker 3: Buffalo, Tampa Bay, New England, Arizona and Vegas, which is

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Speaker 3: probably not the easiest.

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Speaker 5: I don't think.

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Speaker 3: So there's really only you know, those four games in

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Speaker 3: the division and that one Jets game. But I'm with

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Speaker 3: you that could this this thing could go off the

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Speaker 3: rails early, and it could it could go downhill from there. Sean,

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Speaker 3: what do you think about this closet team?

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Speaker 2: The schedule is still pretty easy. I think you know,

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Speaker 2: once you go in and you know, look at the

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Speaker 2: power ratings that I still have this being the fourth

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Speaker 2: easiest schedule. Yes, they have some tough games on the calendar,

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Speaker 2: but overall, you know, getting to play the Texans twice

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Speaker 2: is huge, but that the way.

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Speaker 3: Two wins like you can only get so like, well,

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Speaker 3: I feel like that's over. It's like it's not really

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Speaker 3: like you're talking about Seattle, the Rams, the Titan twice,

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Speaker 3: the but the Bills.

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Speaker 4: That they're still you would still agree that they're they're

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Speaker 4: a league average team, right and they have nine home

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Speaker 4: games and you just basically said they could have five

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Speaker 4: free wins. That's and that could be their four. Now

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Speaker 4: granted they're road division games, they could be tough, but yeah,

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Speaker 4: I have it. I have them their schedule as the

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Speaker 4: fourth sies as well.

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Speaker 2: I don't think this is any continue No, I get

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Speaker 2: your point, especially early in the season, you don't want

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Speaker 2: them to get off to a slow start. But I

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Speaker 2: think that's that's why I'm kind of buying the dip

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Speaker 2: here is because you know, this win total was around

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Speaker 2: nine and a half, I believe before the Wentz injury.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I'm not the biggest Carson Wentz fan,

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Speaker 2: but this line really comes down to his week one availability,

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Speaker 2: and he is trending in that direction. I would say

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Speaker 2: right now he's questionable for Week one. Same thing with

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Speaker 2: Quentin Nelson. I think he's ahead of schedule, So I

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Speaker 2: like buying the dip here. I'm on the over, and

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm trusting my strength of schedule. They have

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Speaker 2: the fourth easiest schedule according to my rating, so I

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Speaker 2: am projecting them, you know, slightly ahead of the market

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Speaker 2: right now eight and a half. You know, seventeen games.

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Speaker 2: You know, I could very easily see them going nine

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Speaker 2: to eight, and you know they might have to go

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Speaker 2: one game without Carson Wentz. I don't think that's the

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Speaker 2: end of the world. I just think it's a situation

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Speaker 2: by the depth, because you know, I was off them

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Speaker 2: when they're at nine and a half wins, but you know,

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Speaker 2: get them at eight and a half over mis one

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Speaker 2: fifty count me in.

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Speaker 3: I mean, okay, outside of the four division games and

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Speaker 3: the Jets at home, and I'm assuming Vegas, you have

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Speaker 3: them favored in any other game.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned the Jets right at home?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Jet, the four Jacksonville and Houston games, the

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Speaker 3: Jets in Vegas at home, and then what like what

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Speaker 3: other games are they you would you have them favored?

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Speaker 2: I mean if Carson Wentz played, if he plays Week one,

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Speaker 2: weren't they minus one and a half against the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: And then.

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Speaker 3: They shouldn't be maybe they weren't. This this is not

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Speaker 3: an easy schedule. That Carson Wentz couldn't play football last year,

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Speaker 3: like he literally forgot how to play quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Like, I just they'd favor against the Titans. I mean

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Speaker 4: they'd be favorite.

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Speaker 5: I mean they would, they would, but they shouldn't be.

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Speaker 5: This is I don't know. I'm not buying this at all.

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Speaker 3: I am in total disagreement with you, Sean. This is

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Speaker 3: not an easy schedule and they could start h and five.

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Speaker 6: There's no way I'm betting over on a team and

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Speaker 6: you have if Carson Wentz is ready to go, I

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Speaker 6: mean new team after his like just getting just back

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Speaker 6: for week one out practicing, and then he's probably not

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Speaker 6: going to have his left tackle.

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Speaker 4: And I mean Eric Fischer isn't healthy yet. I don't

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Speaker 4: know when what the update is on when he's supposed

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Speaker 4: to come back, but I don't think he's getting ready

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Speaker 4: for Week one. That could mean Sam Tevy is your

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Speaker 4: client side tackle is probably the worst tackle in the

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Speaker 4: NFL that actually gets run. So there's some pieces that

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Speaker 4: I'm worried about early on, but I don't hate the

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Speaker 4: approach of buying the dip.

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Speaker 5: I don't see nine wins on the schedule, but we

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Speaker 5: got to move on. Let's go to the Tennessee Titans.

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Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans win total is nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: And I actually did take some under on this earlier

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Speaker 3: in the season when the Colts were a complete wreck

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Speaker 3: that they are. Now now I'm starting to I'm not

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Speaker 3: really touching it. I think the Titans will still be

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Speaker 3: a pretty decent team stuck nine and a half, no

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Speaker 3: juice either way.

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Speaker 5: What do you think of the Titans here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? I make this eight nine. I think the Titans

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Speaker 4: could be in some trouble now. It helps again to

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Speaker 4: be in this division. If you split with the Colts

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Speaker 4: and you beat the Jags, you sweep the Jags, Texans

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Speaker 4: and beat the Jets, then you got to win four

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Speaker 4: more games to get the ten It's an easy floor,

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Speaker 4: but their non divisional home games are brutal. The Bills,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs, the Saints, the forty nine Ers, and the Dolphins.

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Speaker 3: I mean most of the same teams that Indianapolis plays

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Speaker 3: and yeah, but those but those are those are their

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Speaker 3: non division home games, like you don't they don't really

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Speaker 3: have any.

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Speaker 4: They don't have the Jets at home like they go

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Speaker 4: to the Jets and of the Jags. You know that

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Speaker 4: there's some things I don't like about this team. You

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Speaker 4: know they do bringing Julio Jones in, but he's can

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Speaker 4: he stay healthy? I mean, he's aging and he's I

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Speaker 4: think when he's in there, he's still one of the best.

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Speaker 4: But I don't know how many games you're gonna get

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Speaker 4: out of him. And can Dereck Henry keep this carrying

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Speaker 4: this load? There's good. This is what happens running back.

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Speaker 4: It goes like this, right, It's like a cornerback and

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Speaker 4: you have what three hundred and eighty carries last year.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if he can keep that elite level.

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Speaker 4: You have, you know, a new offensive coordinator coming in

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Speaker 4: their ex tight end coach replacing Arthur Smith. Will see

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Speaker 4: if there's any drop off there. The d was just

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Speaker 4: absolutely atrocious last year. You now have Shane Bowen, who's

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Speaker 4: the official defensive coordinator. Although the rumors were that he

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Speaker 4: actually was the defensive coordinator Calong on the plays, but

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Speaker 4: he just wasn't named the defensive coordinator. I don't really

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Speaker 4: know what Rapel's doing down there. They do add Dupree

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Speaker 4: and Auchery to kind of help with some try to

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Speaker 4: find some pass rush. You know, trying to add Clowney

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Speaker 4: and adding Clowney and Beasley was not the way to go.

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Speaker 4: So maybe they can try and get some pressure. But

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Speaker 4: you know, they lost their top three cornerbacks from last year,

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Speaker 4: plus a Dori Jackson Deanoris Jenkins, solid man corner, but

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Speaker 4: he's thirty three Fulton and we haven't really seen him.

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Speaker 4: You might need a you know, a rookie Farley or

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Speaker 4: Molden to be the third corner. So very questionable corner group.

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Speaker 4: I still don't think they can get pressure on the quarterback.

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Speaker 4: They don't blitz for some reason. So I questioned the scheme,

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Speaker 4: and I don't think it's really gonna change much. They

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Speaker 4: have a defensive coordinator who's coming in in Shane Bone,

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Speaker 4: but he apparently was the defensive coordinator last year. They

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Speaker 4: hired Jim Schwartz as an advisor, so maybe that helps.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so you know they were seven and three in

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Speaker 4: one possession games last year. One of them was they

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Speaker 4: were down fifty to the Browns and then scored a

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Speaker 4: bunch of Really, they were seven and two in one

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Speaker 4: possession games. They were plus eleven in turnovers, and they

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Speaker 4: were very healthy all year. So I think that there's

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Speaker 4: some regression coming here, especially if Henry drops off a

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Speaker 4: little bit or gets hurt. God forbid, you know, if

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Speaker 4: Julio can't stay healthy, I think the defense is going

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Speaker 4: to be awful again. So I think that the look

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Speaker 4: here is the under despite you know, a fairly easy

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Speaker 4: schedule in an easy division. I think this is a

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Speaker 4: little high. There's a lot that I think can go wrong.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna stand.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna plant this flag. I am not here for

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Speaker 3: this easy schedule because you can only win four games.

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Speaker 3: Like I get how you project it, like I had

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Speaker 3: im doing it the same way, but and it's like,

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Speaker 3: but at the end of the day, that can still

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Speaker 3: only count for four wins, Like those teams that are

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Speaker 3: like inflating the strength of schedule because you look up

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Speaker 3: and down the Titan schedule and like again they have

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Speaker 3: the road game against the Jets, but it's like Arizona, Seattle, Buffalo,

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Speaker 3: kc Rams, Saints, Patriots, Steelers, Niners, Dolphins, Like, this is

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Speaker 3: not an easy schedule.

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Speaker 4: That's the that's that's that's the NFL. That's everybody, except

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Speaker 4: they get to play two of the worst teams four

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Speaker 4: times and the Jets, so they're you know, their floor,

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Speaker 4: you're starting floor is a lot higher than most teams,

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Speaker 4: and you know there's still a league average right around

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Speaker 4: a league average team, so you know they're gonna be

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Speaker 4: some games with their chance to win. But I still

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Speaker 4: I'm projecting them at eight nine, so I see some

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Speaker 4: value under nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: John, w are your feelings on the Titans here? Where

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Speaker 3: they Where do they rank at your strength to schedule?

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Speaker 2: I'm just curious. Yeah, I think the third easiest.

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Speaker 5: So you started there, You're like, ah, do I say

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Speaker 5: it again?

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Speaker 2: I mean when you highlight, yeah, they have easy wins

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Speaker 2: against the Texans, those are going to be wins. But

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Speaker 2: when you mentioned these tough matchups like at home against Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: what's Buffalo going to be like minus three?

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Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like, why are we I just don't

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Speaker 3: think that they like that should be a reason, like

289
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Speaker 3: it shouldn't just play into the equation at all. It's like,

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Speaker 3: we get it. They have some gimmes on the schedule

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Speaker 3: most teams do. They just happen to come in their division.

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Speaker 3: I just think when you look at the rest of

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Speaker 3: the schedules, it's not easy. It's they're just four games

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Speaker 3: that they could win. Like, I don't know, I just

295
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Speaker 3: don't think it factors. It should factor into the I

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Speaker 3: think the market.

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Speaker 2: Over the values. Yeah, it's probably not a major factor,

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Speaker 2: but I definitely think it's a factor. You know, the

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Speaker 2: strength of schedule. But I take your point. I'm probably

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Speaker 2: passing on this, but if anything, I lead towards the

301
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Speaker 2: under Just if you look at last season, just in

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Speaker 2: general with Ryan Tannehill, they seem to always outperform expectations.

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Speaker 2: I had them closer to an eight point nine win

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Speaker 2: team last year despite winning eleven games. You they gained

305
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Speaker 2: Julio Jones, but they did lose Corey Davis, John new

306
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Speaker 2: Smith and your boy Arthur Smith. Oh yeah, hey, bun,

307
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Speaker 2: So you know they need Hulio Jones to stay healthy.

308
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Speaker 2: This offense will be ridiculous if he does stay healthy.

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Speaker 2: But it's fair to wonder, you know, at thirty two

310
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Speaker 2: years old. Is Julio breaking down? If he misses time,

311
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Speaker 2: It's going to be much easier double team AJ Brown,

312
00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,600
Speaker 2: stack the box and potentially slow down Derrick Henry. So

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Speaker 2: I think you're betting on Julio Jones health and right now,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if we could do that. He's already

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Speaker 2: banged up in camp, so you know, things could fall

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Speaker 2: apart for the offense if Lulo Jones miss his time stuck.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned it. This defense should be, you know, their

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Speaker 2: main weakness still. You know, I think they definitely took

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Speaker 2: a gamble of Farley. If he is able to stay

320
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Speaker 2: healthy and play Week one, I think they could bounce back.

321
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Speaker 2: You know, they have nowhere to go but up. You know,

322
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Speaker 2: they finished thirtieth in DVU and defense last year, so

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Speaker 2: they could just get league average defense out of them,

324
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Speaker 2: they could go pretty far in the playoffs. But again,

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Speaker 2: it comes down to health, and I don't know if

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Speaker 2: we can count on Julio to play all seventeen games.

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Speaker 2: That's why I'm leaning towards the under here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like under even though you mentioned the Bills game.

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Speaker 4: I actually I'm so high on the Bills. Listen to

330
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Speaker 4: another episode. I actually think the Titans win that Bills game.

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Speaker 4: This is just a rent of prediction. I like going

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Speaker 4: through the schedule to get a feel for the schedule.

333
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Speaker 4: I think Bills Bills get revenge at Kansas City. That's

334
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Speaker 4: my prediction. The next week they go to Tennessee and

335
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Speaker 4: lay an egg before the bye week. So that's a

336
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Speaker 4: it's a back to back road game after Kansas City.

337
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Speaker 4: The Bills win that game. You could, they could they

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Speaker 4: are They laid an egg of Tennessee last year, if

339
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Speaker 4: I recall. But I I agree with everything everything you said, Kura.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the Titans are.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think Julio was done by any

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Speaker 3: means last season.

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Speaker 5: He caught fifty sixty passes, career high catcher, career high yards. Yeah, he's.

344
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Speaker 2: Still.

345
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't even think it's I think he's he

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Speaker 3: just you know, he obviously struggled. He's struggled with those

347
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Speaker 3: things at times, and it's but I don't think he's like,

348
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 3: he doesn't give me that level of concern that like

349
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Speaker 3: a Jordy Nelson at this age, like Andre Johnson at

350
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Speaker 3: this age, or a j Green for that matter.

351
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Speaker 2: Right, But here he's critical. He's critical for this offense

352
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Speaker 2: to stay together, right, I.

353
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Speaker 3: Mean absolutely, because you lost so many people, and I

354
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,240
Speaker 3: know you have Dereck Henry, but I think you need

355
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Speaker 3: more than just a J. Brown or especially without Arthur

356
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Speaker 3: Smith there, to like scheme up those play actions and

357
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,639
Speaker 3: all that. Like you have to kind of factor in

358
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Speaker 3: that there's gonna be some regression with Tannehill and that

359
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:40,280
Speaker 3: play action game.

360
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Speaker 2: Even John new Smith has gone, they didn't really replace him.

361
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Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, even Michael Pruett is gone, you know.

362
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Speaker 3: But uh No, I think I think this team has

363
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,439
Speaker 3: a high kind of a wider range of outcomes just

364
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Speaker 3: given the schedule, given you know, the kind of chances

365
00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 3: they were players they to gamble was on on defense.

366
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Speaker 3: They have a high ceiling, low floor kind of situation.

367
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Speaker 3: I think the media is under but I'm just not

368
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,159
Speaker 3: as confident in it as I was earlier in the offseason,

369
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Speaker 3: especially with the I think the Colt's getting weakened. So

370
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 3: not just a ween I think towards the under for me,

371
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 3: but nothing, I'm not loving it for the Titans. Let's

372
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Speaker 3: go to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars, this is a minus one twenty to the

374
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Speaker 1: under on a six and a half win total at

375
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,440
Speaker 1: Ben MGM Sean.

376
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 3: I'll start with you the Jags, Trevor Lawrence, urban Meyer,

377
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:43,560
Speaker 3: Tim Tebow. Ah wait, no, not Tim Tebow, but still

378
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 3: this is urban Meyer's tenure started off a little little

379
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 3: head scratch, And if you ask me, how do you

380
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 3: feel about this six and a half win total?

381
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would lean towards the over here. You know,

382
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 2: last year, I guess you could say the Jags were

383
00:18:56,040 --> 00:19:00,640
Speaker 2: unlucky by going one in five and one games, But yeah,

384
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,120
Speaker 2: they got lucky because it landed them the first pick

385
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,959
Speaker 2: and they got a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence.

386
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Speaker 3: Okay, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait wait, wait before

387
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 3: you go on, I gotta stop you there, because you

388
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 3: just spent this whole podcast, both of you just spent

389
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Speaker 3: this whole podcast telling me how easy these other teams

390
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,640
Speaker 3: schedules were because the Jags were free wins, and now

391
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 3: you're taking the over on the Jags.

392
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Speaker 4: They have to get seven wins.

393
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 5: You never aren't giving a free wins.

394
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 2: I never said anything of the Jacks that said the

395
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:29,479
Speaker 2: Texans are a free way.

396
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 3: Okay, that's that cuts the free wins in half. So

397
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 3: then how's the schedule so easy. If the Jags are

398
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 3: going over there win.

399
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 2: Total, the Jags are six point five win total, that's

400
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 2: not really Uh we're not saying they're a playoff team here.

401
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 2: It's all relative, right.

402
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 5: I even gotta lose in the division. Somebody's gotta lose games. Yeah,

403
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 5: the Texans, the whole NFL Texas gonna lose.

404
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:58,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sorry, no, all good, but yeah, I'm gonna

405
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 2: piss off here. But they have the second easiest strength.

406
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 5: They can't play themselves.

407
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 2: So but you actually, I think the only concern here

408
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 2: is urban Meyer. You know, I think it's been an

409
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 2: interesting transition in NFL. He's still playing games. By even

410
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 2: hinting that Trevor Lawrence might not small, yeah, you did

411
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 2: not even heard with that. I think he's improving though

412
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 2: he did. You mentioned Tim Tebow. That was a disaster,

413
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 2: but he did cut him, so he's moving in the

414
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 2: right direction. I was baffled that they took Travis Etn

415
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 2: in the first round when they already have James Robinson,

416
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,919
Speaker 2: and then urban Meyer is talking about using Etn as

417
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,479
Speaker 2: the h back, you know, sort of the Percy Harvin role,

418
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 2: when they already have Laviska Chanalt, who I think would

419
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,120
Speaker 2: fit that role pretty well. So you know, he's made

420
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 2: some fishy decisions early on, so he'd may be my

421
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 2: only concern really for this team this season. But I

422
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,919
Speaker 2: do think that they're due for some positive regression. I

423
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 2: love Trevor Lawrence. He looked pretty polished in his first

424
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 2: preseason game. I think he's NFL right out of the gate.

425
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 2: So that's why I'm I'm kind of leaning towards the

426
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 2: over here.

427
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I have them the third easiest schedule,

428
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 4: and but I mean just just a weighted average of

429
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 4: their I know what it is.

430
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 3: That's why I'm so upset about it because I get it,

431
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 3: and I don't feel like it's indicative of their true schedule,

432
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 3: like of their true like it's just waiting the Texans

433
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 3: a lot.

434
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 4: Yeah it's just only two games, but there's okay, Yeah,

435
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 4: there's other things we look at when we look I

436
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 4: look at the schedule. But that's how you have to

437
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 4: you have to quantify with your power ratings.

438
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 2: I get it.

439
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,439
Speaker 5: I'm just saying I have the same ratings.

440
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,679
Speaker 3: I just don't put much stock into it because you

441
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 3: can only win two games against the Texans, like regardless.

442
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 4: But it's it's it's look at all the other games too.

443
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:45,719
Speaker 4: I mean, if you look at if you look at

444
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,199
Speaker 4: the Jags like they're getting you know, they play the Bengals,

445
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 4: they get to play you know, the Jets, so they're

446
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 4: they're playing some other bad teams as well. I think

447
00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 4: the way to play the Jags I make them six

448
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 4: point seven. So I would lean slightly to the over,

449
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 4: but I would buy the upside of Lawrence working out.

450
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 4: In addition to you know, we know the Texans, which

451
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 4: we're gonna get to We're gonna stink. Right, that's just known. Now,

452
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 4: the situation with Carson Wentz could go south quickly. We

453
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 4: talked about they could start out on five. Who knows

454
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 4: what Wentz is gonna give you. He is even gonna

455
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 4: be healthy. And then you have you know, the Titans.

456
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 4: We know their defense is gonna stink. Does Julio stay healthy?

457
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 4: Does is there drop off with Derrick Henry? You know,

458
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 4: after two hundred and eighty carries last year, all of

459
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 4: a sudden, you know, this becomes the NFC East and

460
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 4: you win seven eight games and you can win the division.

461
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 4: So Trevor Lawrence could be the best quarterback in this

462
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 4: division next year, right, if he just it's not that

463
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 4: far away from being elite. In my opinion, Andrew Luck

464
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 4: won the division in his first year. If he's Andrew Luck,

465
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 4: he can do it in this division. Because there's a

466
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 4: lot of other questions with Tennessee, with Indianapolis, and we

467
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 4: know Houston stinks. I hate some of the moves they

468
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 4: made on defense. I just wish that they it's not

469
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 4: a well run organization. You know, you got to hope

470
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 4: that CJ. Henderson, who had surgery in the offseason, really

471
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 4: steps up at corner. Maybe Tyson Campbell where they drift

472
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,959
Speaker 4: in the second round, steps up, because I mean, they

473
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 4: brought in Shack Griffin, you know, they brought in Rayshawn Jenkins,

474
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 4: and so I just don't like the secondary unless some

475
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 4: of these young guys can really step up. But yeah,

476
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 4: oh and five in games decided by four points or less.

477
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 4: Their Pathagrea wins total lest year was like three point

478
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 4: seven even though they won one game. Their tackles need

479
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 4: to get better, like Robinson and Taylor just have to

480
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 4: be better. I kind of like the interior, but they

481
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 4: have to be better for a rookie quarterback. But the

482
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 4: upside is high with Lawrence at a division that things

483
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 4: could go sideways quick for a lot of these teams.

484
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 4: And you know their special teams could be better. Lambeau

485
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 4: could be back and Lambo stay healthy. That will help

486
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 4: Agnew's good returner. They brought in Cooks, a good punter,

487
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 4: so you know that could maybe win them a game

488
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 4: or two, which could swing this division. If everything goes right,

489
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 4: eight wins could win this division. The one thing I

490
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,719
Speaker 4: also really like is to keep in mind, you know,

491
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 4: it's brand new, brand new coach. You know, rookie quarterback,

492
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 4: a lot of questions, you know, young corners. If it

493
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 4: started out bad right, it could go south quick with

494
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 4: this team. But they have six winnable games to start,

495
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 4: Like you're telling me that if everything you know Trevor

496
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 4: Lawrence is great, they start at Houston. They got Denver

497
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 4: at home, you know, Arizona at home, at Cincy home

498
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 4: against Tennessee, and then Miami in London it's Jacksonville second home.

499
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 4: Like there's a world where they start five and one

500
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 4: or six and zero. No, obviously it's not a realistic world,

501
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 4: but it could happen. So I think that there's some

502
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 4: value I think, what are they seven to one to

503
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 4: win the division? Taking a shot here because there are

504
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 4: major questions with the two other co favorites and we

505
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 4: know Houston stinks.

506
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is another one that I was on the under.

507
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 3: I just I don't it's just historically speaking, there's just

508
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 3: not a lot of precedent for a team that did

509
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 3: that was that bad last year to rebound, Like they

510
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 3: will regress, but the average like regression for a one

511
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 3: in fifteen team is about three more wins the next

512
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 3: year a little over three, So it's not like it's

513
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 3: major and they still were a three point seven Pythagora

514
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 3: win team. But I do like the opportunity for them

515
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 3: in the division. I think that is a smarter bet.

516
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 3: I don't like, I don't have as much confidence in

517
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 3: them winning seven games. I just think urban Meyer kind

518
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 3: of puts it the other way for me, in a

519
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 3: similar sense to like Cincinnati with Zach Taylor, where it's

520
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 3: like we just have nothing to hang our hats on.

521
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 3: It's like the way everything that urban Meyer's done, like

522
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 3: this team is just shaping up to me is like

523
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 3: it's not going to be a smart team. So I'm like,

524
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 3: they still have to kind of things have to go

525
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,479
Speaker 3: right and they have to take it of, you know,

526
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 3: of Lawrence and everything to maximize the potential in year one,

527
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 3: and this this coach is over here.

528
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: Talking about that.

529
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 3: You know, he's gonna battle Gardner Minshew, like the guy

530
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 3: who they essentially went one in fifteen in the process

531
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 3: benching along the way to put him in position for Lawrence.

532
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 3: The tim sebug thing was silly, and it just worries

533
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 3: me that if he's making these decisions that we can

534
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 3: see outwardly, you know what else from a game plan perspective,

535
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 3: you know, things that we don't aren't necessarily privy to,

536
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: but that maybe operating less than optimally, especially because we know,

537
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 3: you know, it's not an easy transition going you know,

538
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 3: coming from college to the pros. It's a different mentality.

539
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 3: I just worry about this team. I just don't have

540
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 3: any confidence in this team, like they're gonna have to

541
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 3: prove it to me.

542
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 5: So no way, I'm betting the over on this team.

543
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 3: But I'm not mad at you're taking a shot on

544
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: the division, because I do think the division itself is

545
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 3: just it could just be so bad. But I don't

546
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 3: see very much value. I'm betting on like a media

547
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 3: of seven wins. I think just take the log shot

548
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: for them to win the division. They may win it

549
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 3: like seven to ten or something. Things go crazy, So

550
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 3: that's what I would do with the Jags.

551
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,159
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Speaker 7: Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

581
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: Houston Texans.

582
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 3: They have a win total of I mean, it's barely there.

583
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 3: This is why everyone's saying all these other teams have

584
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 3: an easy schedule, because if the Texan's winds is just

585
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 3: three and a half stuck, the over is juice to

586
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: minus one forty would you play the Texans to get

587
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 3: to four wins? They got they got four last year,

588
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 3: but that was Deshaun Wata doesn't look why he's.

589
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 4: Yeah they should Yeah, they should have won six last year.

590
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 4: So they've got a bit unlucky. But I'm not spent

591
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 4: much time on this scene. This team is terrible. I

592
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 4: have projected this as four. The wind total is basically four.

593
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: I'm assuming Watson isn't gonna play. I hate everything about

594
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 4: I hate all their hires, I hate the front office,

595
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 4: I hate the roster. What Lovey Smith's gonna come in

596
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 4: and run four three basic cover two. They're gonna get

597
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 4: no pressure. They're gonna get shredded. They don't have any corners,

598
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 4: if nothing. This team is a dumpster fire. It's one

599
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 4: of the worst teams we've seen in the AFC potentially

600
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 4: in a while, and we've seen some bad ones, so

601
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 4: that's it. I mean, I project them at four. Their

602
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 4: strength is schedule if you're curious. Radon is twelfth, so

603
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 4: they can't play themselves. I had them at twelve, but

604
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 4: I got that's it. I've a projective at four. I

605
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 4: think they're gonna be terrible and I've want no interest

606
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 4: in the Texans.

607
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 3: If you had a bet, you go over, right, Like

608
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 3: you can't. Would you go under on a three and

609
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 3: a half in a seventeen game schedule?

610
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 4: No, right, no, But I mean I projected at four

611
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: the jew it's either juice three and a half or

612
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 4: like for even money. So like I'm I'm four point

613
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 4: one is my projection, and I'm assuming Watson isn't going

614
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 4: to play it down for them, And I hate their

615
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: staff too, and I mean I was shocked it was

616
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 4: at four point one, But that's all low I am

617
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 4: on them.

618
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 5: I think it just speaks to the fact that it's

619
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 5: still the NFL.

620
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 3: There's still a lot of you know, uncertainty and regression

621
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 3: to the mean in these projections period. And it's just,

622
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 3: you know, it's it's a three win team, a three

623
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 3: in what would that be?

624
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 5: Three and fourteen?

625
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 3: That's just a lot of things have to go wrong,

626
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 3: even for a bad team, and go with three and fourteen.

627
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 3: So I don't recommend betting the underund a win total

628
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 3: this well of Sean, But what do you think?

629
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's tough taking under three and a half.

630
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 2: I'm projecting them at three point eight right now. There's

631
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: really nothing optimistic I can say about them. They benefited

632
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 2: last year from the seventh best injury luck. You mentioned it.

633
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 2: You know, they only won four games last year with

634
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson, so how are they going to win four

635
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 2: without him? We're also entering the post JJ Watt era

636
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 2: for this Texans team. There's nothing to like and Tyrod

637
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 2: Taylor is not really the quarterback that's gonna thrive with

638
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 2: negative game scripts. They're in trouble and I could see them,

639
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: if anything, tanking, throwing Davis Mills out there. Apparently he's

640
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 2: looked like shit. Just you know, throw games and try

641
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: to get Spencer Ratler with the first overall pick next year.

642
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: Is more likely than them winning four games. But it's

643
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 2: so hard betting under three and a half, especially the

644
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 2: seventeen game schedule, because it's the NFL. Anything can happened.

645
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 2: But like Stucky said, this is one of the worst

646
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: teams we've seen on paper in a while.

647
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 3: What's really amazing to me about this team is that,

648
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 3: you know, passing efficiency correlates very strongly to winning, and

649
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 3: last season, Deshaun Watson averaged eight point nine yards per

650
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 3: pass at ten and this team went four and twelve

651
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 3: like that just boggles my mind, and it speaks to

652
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: just how bare the roster is. And I mean they

653
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 3: had Will Fuller last year playing out of his mind

654
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 3: until he went down. I mean, this is I struggle

655
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 3: to see how they're gonna win four games. But you

656
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 3: can't bet the under three and a half. You can't

657
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: bet on It's just it's just way too far outside

658
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 3: the you know, the reasonable range of expectations. If you're

659
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 3: making a bet like this, I think you lose it

660
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 3: more than you win it, because all you need is

661
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: a couple of lucky breaks. Then maybe a team gets

662
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 3: injury ravage and it kind of gets just as bad

663
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 3: and they play them, and you know, it's it's just

664
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 3: it's just tough to go three and fourteen. So I

665
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 3: wouldn't bet under. Don't really have any interest in betting over.

666
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,239
Speaker 3: Uh this is yeah, it's we could just move on

667
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 3: from this Texas team.

668
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 4: Let's just go to the rooky quarterback and the Jags.

669
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 4: We talked about the problems the Titans could have with

670
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 4: their defense, the problems with the Colts together quarterback, and

671
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 4: this Texas team is thirty to one to win the division,

672
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 4: to one to win the division.

673
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: I would not touch that.

674
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 3: Hey, maybe Deshaun gets the charges draft or something and

675
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 3: hehit's a good vet man. No, it'sh I mean, hey,

676
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 3: there's nothing to say about this Texans team.

677
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 5: I really have I might have lost for words. The

678
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 5: Kansas City Chiefs.

679
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs.

680
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 3: Andy Reid eight and o eight no out toward the

681
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 3: over on the on the win totals. And you think

682
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 3: he was nine to four and one with the Eagles,

683
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 3: So that makes him seventeen to four and one over

684
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 3: on the preseason win totals. Sean is Andy Reid gonna

685
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: take his first l on a win total this year?

686
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 3: Chiefs are at twelve and a half at BETMVM.

687
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, this is a team that I'm leaning

688
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 2: towards the under. But I'm not gonna bet against Andy

689
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 2: Reid or Patrick Mahomes, especially after their embarrassing to roll loss.

690
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 2: You know, Patrick Mahomes should be extra motivated this year.

691
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: He's already saying that he wants to go twenty one

692
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 2: and oh, I'm not betting again. But if you look

693
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 2: at the second half of last season, this team wasn't

694
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 2: that dominant. You know, they went seven to one in

695
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: their five final eight games last season. But they were

696
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 2: the first team in NFL history to win six games

697
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: by six points or fewer last year, so you know,

698
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 2: they went eight and one in one score games. So

699
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 2: this isn't the dominant team that we think of the Chiefs.

700
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 2: I think they did get a little bit lucky. Granted,

701
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 2: they're gonna be a lot better this year. The offensive

702
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: line should be improved. But this is a team where

703
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 2: you know, my projections leaned towards the under, but I

704
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: just can't. I can't bring myself to bet against Pat

705
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 2: Maholmes or Andy Reid.

706
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, the over is juiced up to plus one twenty,

707
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 3: so I think you gotta go over. I would never

708
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 3: bet if the Chiefs are like an automatic over bet

709
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 3: for me. And you said if they're gonna be better

710
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: this year, I think a lot of what that second

711
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: half kind of smoon was had to do with the

712
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 3: offensive line, and we saw the play out in the

713
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 3: Super Bowl as well. They just you know, they didn't

714
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 3: have that same ceiling and they had a lower floor

715
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 3: with the on line playing as bad as it did.

716
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 5: I think that's going to be better this year. You

717
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 5: still have Mahomes, you have a motivated Mahomes.

718
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 2: I mean stuck.

719
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 3: I talk me out of betting the over on this

720
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 3: ridiculously high wind total.

721
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I make it eleven to five, so I'm

722
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: probably gonna end up betting the under. I don't know.

723
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 4: I mean there's some things to look. I mean, look

724
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 4: the Chiefs. They're gonna have a really bad defense, we

725
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 4: know that, and they're gonna have a really good offensive.

726
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 4: Homes is gonna win games. I mean, there's not much

727
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 4: more to break down more than that. But they could

728
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 4: have three they could have three starting rookie offensive linemen.

729
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 4: So I know that they brought in you know, they

730
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 4: shored up the left side, but they as of right now,

731
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 4: they're projected to start Humphrey, Smith and Yang. Those are

732
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 4: three rookies on the offensive line. So everyone is just

733
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 4: saying everything's gonna go smoothly. And they have some other

734
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 4: injury so I might not play out, but that says,

735
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 4: of right now, they're a projected starting lineup. You know,

736
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,359
Speaker 4: it's Mahomes. The offense is still gonna be great no

737
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 4: matter what. The defense is gonna be even worse. I mean,

738
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 4: this is team that's just it's gonna get shredded in

739
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 4: the run. I mean, they're the first team in the

740
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 4: NFL history to finish the twenty fifth or worse in

741
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 4: rundy three straight years. And they lose all of their

742
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 4: best run stoppers. They lost their two best run stoping

743
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 4: defensive lineman. They lost Wilson, who was their only good

744
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 4: run stopping linebacker. They're they're they're gonna get tredded again

745
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 4: and they're gonna be even worse. But they're you know,

746
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 4: they have a good secondary, they're well coached. They forced turnovers.

747
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 4: They put a lot of pressure on you, a lot

748
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 4: of quarterbacks with force throws. But you know, they they

749
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 4: went nine and one in one possession games last year.

750
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 4: Their Pythagora wins were ten point seven and they won

751
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 4: fourteen games. They do get nine home games, but it's

752
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 4: the special teams are really bad last year too, which

753
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 4: is really surprising the first time at yeah, first time.

754
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 4: So we'll see if fucker can actually make a thirty

755
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 4: yard field goal that would help.

756
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 5: You miss two extra points in the pre in the

757
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 5: prey missed.

758
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 4: The budget extra points and yeah, yeah it's in his head.

759
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 4: If he's kicked, you should think they should take penalties

760
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 4: and let him kick fifty five yarders. But yeah, I mean,

761
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 4: I'm making eleven five. They're gonna need Willie Gay and

762
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 4: Nick Bolton. We're really young to step up at linebacker,

763
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 4: I think. But they're they're gonna give up points, They're

764
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 4: gonna score a bunch of points, and they're gonna win

765
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 4: a bunch of games. I just make it eleven to five.

766
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 4: I'm curious to see how the rookie offensive linemen do.

767
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 4: I think people are just assuming they're gonna be great

768
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 4: right away. But even when Mahomes has a bad offensive line,

769
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 4: unless he runs into you know, when tamp out a

770
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 4: great game plaint with their defensive line, he's gonna be fine.

771
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 4: And their defense is you know, they're gonna use a

772
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 4: ton of dime. They're gonna blitz a ship ton and

773
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 4: cause turnovers and get a couple of key stops and

774
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 4: win games. I don't know if I'll pull the trigger, because,

775
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 4: like you guys, I don't want to bet against Mahomes.

776
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 2: But I do see value in the number. Who do

777
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,800
Speaker 2: you guys have number one in your power ratings? Chiefs

778
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 2: are Bucks. I personally have the.

779
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 4: Bucks by a couple uh tenths and mainly it's just

780
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 4: I mean, they're it's there. We know, we we're gonna

781
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 4: talk about the end. See, but I know what I

782
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 4: have with them. I think the Chiefs defense gets even worse.

783
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 4: And then I want to see how these three offensive linemen,

784
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 4: these three rookie offensive linemen perform. It might it be two,

785
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,320
Speaker 4: it might be three, but it's very close. It's basically

786
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 4: a toss up.

787
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the Bucks just they're just so the

788
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 3: projection is pretty confident because they're basically returning the same

789
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 3: team that won that Super Bowl. We had a twenty

790
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 3: game sample of them last year because they played the

791
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 3: three the four playoff games.

792
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 5: So yeah, I like the I like the Bucks to

793
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 5: start the year. I could the Chiefs. It'll take a

794
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 5: couple of weeks and could flip fop. But yeah, Bucks

795
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,879
Speaker 5: for me as well, is that what you have to going?

796
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't basically tied, that's all. I was curious

797
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 2: if you guys had any one ahead of the other.

798
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 2: But my minor even Yeah, I mean I think it's fair.

799
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 2: I mean, give especially given what happened in the Super Bowl.

800
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 3: I know it's different year, different teams, but still I

801
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 3: think it's fair for the Bucks to get a slight

802
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: edge headed into Week one, Let's go to the Los

803
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:00,720
Speaker 3: Angeles Chargers bet MGM.

804
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers.

805
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 3: Has their win total nine and a half with the

806
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 3: under at minus one twenty stuck Justin Herbert Year two,

807
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: no Anthony Winn.

808
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 5: What do you think about the Chargers?

809
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 4: I mean getting rid of Anthony Lynn is massive in

810
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 4: a lot of these close games, and just time management

811
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 4: clock manager, how this organization is gonna be run from

812
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 4: a game management perspective, I think is huge. The offensive line,

813
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 4: the Charges are gonna have an offensive line. I mean,

814
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 4: you bring in Corey Linsley, It's a huge upgrade at center.

815
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 4: It's gonna be a huge help to Justin Herbert. You

816
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 4: bring in you know, Filer to play right guard next

817
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 4: to Bolaga. You drafted Racheon Slater to left tackle. I mean,

818
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 4: there's an actual offensive line. I can't remember the last

819
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:46,919
Speaker 4: time I said that. So the offensive line is gonna

820
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:50,720
Speaker 4: be much better. You're bringing Jared Cook to replace Hunter Henry.

821
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 4: You have Kethan Allen and Mike Williams still there with

822
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 4: that cler so the offense should be great. The problem

823
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 4: is how much better.

824
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 2: Can it be?

825
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 4: After what we saw last year, and does Herbert have

826
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 4: a drop off everything? I still know, but we'll see.

827
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 4: I don't know how much better it can get. You know,

828
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 4: the defense I think might struggle. They lost Hayward and Ingram,

829
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 4: Jenkins and Perriman. You're gonna need some rookies to step

830
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 4: up Rump at the end or Samuel at corner. You

831
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 4: do get Darwin James back and trank Wood linebacker, but

832
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 4: you lost a lot. And this is a completely different scheme.

833
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 4: You know, Staley's gonna run your too high safety. He's

834
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 4: gonna use a lot of cover six. Just a completely

835
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 4: different scheme than with Gus Bradley runs. I mean there's

836
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 4: I can't think of two different schemes. So will will

837
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 4: I'm not sure. Will Staley try to adjust? That's a

838
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 4: big question. But the defensive line is really suspect with

839
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 4: you know, Tillery and Jones and Agent Joseph. So can

840
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 4: can they he really do what he did with the Rams?

841
00:40:55,440 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 4: I don't know. The Broster doesn't really fit here. So

842
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 4: you know, the defense might struggle. That this team's gonna

843
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 4: be in a lot of shootouts. And but I make

844
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 4: them nine point two, and we'll say if you know,

845
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 4: just there's some little things that they can do with

846
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 4: clock management. The offensive line. Now, just get the special

847
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 4: teams to just be competent. They always have the worst

848
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 4: special teams and the worst offensive line. They got the

849
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 4: offensive line down, they assume they have the clock management

850
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,319
Speaker 4: will get better. Now just work practice special teams, Like

851
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 4: just go practice some punts or something that could help.

852
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 4: Uh So, I think it's you know, trending in the

853
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 4: right direction. But I do have a lot of questions

854
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 4: about this defense, how it's gonna work in year one.

855
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 4: It's a complex defense understanding it doesn't really fit and

856
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 4: they lost a lot on that side of the ball.

857
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,240
Speaker 4: But the offense should should cook.

858
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was my first thought when I started looking

859
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 3: at the Chargers and how they look this year, you know,

860
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 3: under the new staff compared to last year. I know

861
00:41:56,560 --> 00:42:00,240
Speaker 3: they got Staley coming over, you know, good defensive mind.

862
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 3: But I just thought this team's gonna be in a

863
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 3: lot of shootouts. I just I think they lost a

864
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 3: lot on defense. To's a scheme switch. I don't think

865
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be magically fixed. So this is a

866
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 3: very average team for me. Tough for me to call

867
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 3: them a winning team. And bet them to win ten

868
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 3: games at what do you think, Sean.

869
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I took this when it was nine. I

870
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,319
Speaker 2: took the over minus one ten. You know, a lot

871
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 2: of the value is gone now that's nine and a

872
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 2: half the overs even money, I'd probably still lean towards

873
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 2: the over. I do believe in this team, Stuck, you

874
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 2: mentioned Anthony Lyn. I can't tell you how much money

875
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 2: I've lost the past few seasons where they should have

876
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 2: won the game, but you know, due to various in

877
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 2: game decisions, they lost. So I think brand Day he'll

878
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 2: be more analytical and make the right calls. So you know,

879
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: I expect positive regression there. They had the sixth worst

880
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 2: injury luck last year. Stuck, you mentioned it. This defense

881
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 2: is really weak behind Derwin James and Joey Bosa. They

882
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 2: need both of them to stay healthy. If they can

883
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 2: both stay healthy, I like them a lot this year

884
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 2: and then thirty they were thirty second in special teams

885
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: DV way. Hopefully new coaching will help that. Usually those

886
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 2: regrets towards the mean. But you know, when it comes

887
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 2: to some of the offseason moves. Love what they did

888
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 2: with the offensive line. I think they're gonna be a

889
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,760
Speaker 2: lot better there, even despite the fact they lost Hunter Henry.

890
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 2: I think Jared Cook is a good short term replacement

891
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 2: until they figure out, you know, more of a long

892
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 2: term solution there. And then even rookie Josh Palmer. I

893
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 2: think it's sneaky. They've really struggled to find like a

894
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 2: quality third wide receiver in this offense. I think Josh

895
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 2: Palmer could be that guy. So I like a lot

896
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 2: of the moves they've they've done, you know, despite a

897
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,919
Speaker 2: lot of the value being gone. I still like them

898
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 2: over nine and a half at even money, I think.

899
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 5: I still go the other way.

900
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 3: I mean, just to me, it just reminds me a

901
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 3: lot of like the Falcons over this past few years,

902
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 3: where like, it's a good offense, defense is probably gonna

903
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 3: be shaky, but then you factor in they have to

904
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 3: play the Chiefs twice.

905
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 5: It's I see, and like, I don't like the early

906
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 5: season schedule either. I think it's the slate eases up.

907
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 3: But you start at Washington, Dallas, at Case, Vegas, Cleveland,

908
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 3: at Baltimore, you could be staring a one in five

909
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 3: in the face if you don't If if things don't acquimate.

910
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 5: As quickly quickly as possible.

911
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's probably still an under for me.

912
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 3: I thought it would be closer to eight and a

913
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 3: half then I could see it. But I just I

914
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 3: could see them being like a nine and eight team

915
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:31,320
Speaker 3: like I have. That's what I, you know, would lean towards.

916
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 3: But a ten and seven that's like a legit good team.

917
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 3: I just I don't know if they're there. I think

918
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,800
Speaker 3: they may still be a year away. Broncos are eight.

919
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 2: And a half.

920
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 3: Datenver Broncos to the win total at bet MGM with

921
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 3: the over juice slightly to minus one fifteen.

922
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 4: Well, hopefully you listen to our podcast that you and

923
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 4: I did in May when the only my only wind

924
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 4: total that I bet was Broncos over seven, so that

925
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 4: I has been beat the ship. But I still make this.

926
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 4: I still project the Broncos nine point two. I am

927
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 4: super high on the Broncos. Maybe Drew lock I mean,

928
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 4: there's nothing you can look at to say Drew Locke

929
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 4: is gonna be good. Maybe he has a year three breakout.

930
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 4: But Teddy at least gives them a good floor, which

931
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 4: I think is important and something to fall back on

932
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 4: because the rest of the roster is completely loaded. You know,

933
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 4: you get Sutton back at receiver to go with Judy

934
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,799
Speaker 4: and Hamler. I think that you know, mun Check with

935
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 4: that offensive line, you're gonna see a big jump. You know,

936
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 4: Bowls figured out a left tackle. You know, Kushenberg is

937
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 4: a rookie center last year. I think he'll have a

938
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 4: jump that interior on the rise. Right tackle is still

939
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 4: a little bit of a question. But I think the

940
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 4: offensive line is gonna better. The weapons are there, and

941
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 4: the defense I think has the potential to be the

942
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 4: best defense in the NFL. They upgraded their corners. They

943
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 4: have arguably the best safety duo in the NFL. You

944
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 4: get Chubb and Miller back to come off the edge,

945
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 4: and you know, Malik Reid showed that he could play

946
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 4: to last year. They had so many injuries on defense

947
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 4: last year. It's gonna pay off this year that the

948
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 4: depth on that defense is massive, you know, so they're

949
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 4: gonna play a lot more dime. I think, you know,

950
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 4: you add Certain in there, you add Darby there. You know,

951
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 4: you have a guy who was starting at corners probably

952
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 4: their six corner now last year. So I think that

953
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:31,400
Speaker 4: really upgraded the cornerback room. Fangio is basically recreating Chicago's defense,

954
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:35,240
Speaker 4: the elite defenses that he had. This is a getting

955
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 4: Fuller's huge full is gonna thrive in his scheme. But

956
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 4: this is the twenty eighteen potentially the twenty eighteen Bears.

957
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 4: Year before, with Mitch Bortles, they went five and eleven.

958
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 4: In twenty eighteen, they went twelve and four. Who were

959
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 4: the ap all pros Fuller who's now in the Broncos,

960
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 4: Khalil Mack who could be Von Miller, and then Eddie

961
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 4: Jackson who could be Justin Simmons. And they just did

962
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 4: it with their defense. Obviously a below average quarterback or

963
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 4: you know, if Teddy's in there, just kind of managing

964
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 4: the offense. We know he can win, we know he

965
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:12,640
Speaker 4: can cover. So I love the defense. I just love

966
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 4: the depth that they built, you know, getting you know,

967
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 4: Percell back from injury that so many injuries last year.

968
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 4: It was still a decent group. Bad injury luck last year.

969
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 4: I think they're do so for some regression. They let

970
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,880
Speaker 4: the NFL and drop rate, so there's a lot of

971
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 4: things that can get better. I wish they didn't cut Duffy.

972
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 4: You gotta get a punter shout out from Kentucky. Their

973
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 4: punting is so bad. I don't know why they cut him.

974
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 4: But the schedule gets much easier this year. You get

975
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,759
Speaker 4: Kansas City at home to close out the year, to

976
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 4: be playing for nothing, so that could be a win

977
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 4: that would have been a loss earlier in the season.

978
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:57,359
Speaker 4: Nine home games, fairly manageable schedule. I love this Broncos team.

979
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 4: I love the over seven I still show some value

980
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 4: and over eight and a half, I think this is

981
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 4: a wild click.

982
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean this.

983
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 3: It looks like they can start three and oh they

984
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 3: play at the Giants at Jacksonville and then the Jets

985
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 3: in the first three weeks, so it could it could

986
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 3: start off really well. And I think this, like this

987
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 3: defense is just sctacular. Sean, where are you on the

988
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 3: Denver Broncos? Eight and a half is the win total?

989
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 2: I'm in line with the eight and a half went

990
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 2: toil nicely done, stucky getting it at seven. Though, I

991
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 2: think this team does have a high floor considering you know,

992
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 2: they could start the season off with Drew Locke just

993
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 2: to see if he pans out this year. I think

994
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 2: he brings a higher ceiling to the offense. But if

995
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 2: he doesn't work out, you know, they have Teddy Bridgewater,

996
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 2: you know, to be there, and he could be a

997
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 2: better quarterback for the style of play they want to,

998
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 2: you know, implement with a really solid defense. Stuck. You

999
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 2: mentioned it, but they really had brutal injury luck last year.

1000
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:55,320
Speaker 2: They had the seventh worst injury luck. Getting von Miller

1001
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 2: back after missing the twenty twenty season is massive, but

1002
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,240
Speaker 2: you know, it was interesting this see them take Patrick's

1003
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 2: certain in the draft. You know he should be a

1004
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 2: quality quarterback, but you know, Justin Fields is there. I

1005
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 2: would have loved to have seen them take it. Not

1006
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 2: even a chance hit a home run with Justin Fields there,

1007
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 2: because you know, without a solid quarterback, you know, your

1008
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,320
Speaker 2: ceilings capped a bit. So I haven't projected eight and

1009
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,399
Speaker 2: a half, but I would have loved to see Justin

1010
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:21,800
Speaker 2: Fields on this team.

1011
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's really hard not to like the Broncos.

1012
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:29,919
Speaker 3: The only thing that worries me is like, okay, there

1013
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:34,240
Speaker 3: two weaknesses that you can point out are the quarterback position,

1014
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 3: and then if Cushionberry doesn't take a step forward or

1015
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:40,319
Speaker 3: you know, if we're over projecting, if we just kind

1016
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 3: of take about what he's been so far, then their

1017
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:47,240
Speaker 3: two weakest areas are quarterback and center, and it's like, well,

1018
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 3: that's probably still enough given this schedule. So yeah, I

1019
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:54,919
Speaker 3: really can't argue against it too much, but I agree Stuck,

1020
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 3: you got a great number at seven.

1021
00:49:57,520 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 5: I think that was the play.

1022
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:00,399
Speaker 2: Uh.

1023
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 3: It worries me now to better a winning team with

1024
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 3: Drew Locke or Teddy you know, regardless, you know, just

1025
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 3: because those guys I think are still lower tier starters.

1026
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:12,840
Speaker 3: But it's there for the take it with Denver and

1027
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 3: they they could be like this year is like a

1028
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 3: like like like yeah, like that Washington. I mean that

1029
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:20,959
Speaker 3: a Chicago team or like a Washington from last year

1030
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 3: just given this defense, like it's gonna be so good.

1031
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 5: So it certain is gonna help that.

1032
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 3: So it's another reason why I have tough for me

1033
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 3: to bet like the Chargers over because I think, you know,

1034
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,360
Speaker 3: the Broncos are a team like that. Those aren't gimmes

1035
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 3: against the the the Broncos that the Chargers are gonna

1036
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 3: have to play this year, and then they also got

1037
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, so it's a tough schedule for them. But

1038
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 3: I do like the Broncos what they have on paper.

1039
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:47,799
Speaker 3: Let's wrap it up with the That's that's why I.

1040
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 4: Don't even have a punter though. If they if they

1041
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,439
Speaker 4: want to win, like you right, they got to punt

1042
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:53,760
Speaker 4: it a lot and let their defense.

1043
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:55,320
Speaker 2: I think Sam Martin.

1044
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 4: Is still the punter. He was awful. I hope they

1045
00:50:57,960 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 4: get someone else to punt, but I'll like.

1046
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:03,280
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, we'll finish up with Vegas though.

1047
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 1: Vegas Las Vegas Raiders.

1048
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 3: Pretty much year in, year out, has one of the

1049
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 3: worst defenses in the NFL. Uh. Their win total is

1050
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 3: the worst in the division at seven and a half. Stuck,

1051
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,720
Speaker 3: what do you think of the Vegas Raiders. The unders

1052
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 3: juiced to minus one forty five, so it's closer to

1053
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 3: seven is the real true and ply to win total?

1054
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 4: I make the seven point two. I do have them

1055
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 4: with a third artist schedule in the NFL. I like

1056
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 4: that they brought in Gus Bradley, but they did the

1057
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 4: defensive scheme change, you know, and it's just there. It's

1058
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:48,359
Speaker 4: just a middling organization, right. I mean, they're gonna they're gonna,

1059
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 4: you know, Derek Carr, I like, he's gonna do some

1060
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 4: nice things. They're probably gonna win seven or eight games.

1061
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,879
Speaker 4: They added Casey Hayward. He's thirty one. They never can

1062
00:51:57,880 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 4: get to the quarterback on defensive a huge problem. They

1063
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 4: need to scheme that more. They bring it in Gackway,

1064
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:08,360
Speaker 4: you know, can he get to the quarterback he's and

1065
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 4: help in that department. That would really go a long

1066
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 4: way in helping their defense. But it's just a bad

1067
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 4: tackling team, a bad secondary. Hopefully Bradley can get it

1068
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 4: turned around. The defens just needs to find a way

1069
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,719
Speaker 4: to force turnovers, get sacks, just get some key stops

1070
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 4: maybe the and the one thing I'm worried about with

1071
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 4: the offense is their offensive line is just not gonna

1072
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 4: be as good. You lost Gabe Jackson and ass Brown.

1073
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,759
Speaker 4: You do have Igna Nino coming back, but you could

1074
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:38,919
Speaker 4: see some a step back on the offensive line, which

1075
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 4: has been a strength. You know, you lost Rodney Hudson

1076
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 4: as well at center, so you're gonna be relying on

1077
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 4: some new pieces and some pieces that aren't as talented,

1078
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 4: so you know, and you're gonna need more a rookie

1079
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 4: safety probably play that important center field in Bradley's defense.

1080
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 4: So the defense is still gonna be bad, even though

1081
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 4: I like the scheme changes and uh, you know, they'll

1082
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 4: probably finish right around where their wind total is. I

1083
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 4: projected seven point two right where it is, and uh,

1084
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 4: it's just a week to week betting team for me

1085
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 4: in certain spots. Nothing from a wind total perspective, nothing

1086
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:16,919
Speaker 4: from the future. They're kind of they are who they.

1087
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 5: Are, John, what do you what do you think it

1088
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 5: on on the Vegas Raiders.

1089
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 2: I like the under here. I'm projecting them closer to

1090
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 2: like six point seven wins. You know, they they took

1091
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,360
Speaker 2: a wrecking ball to this offensive line. They're they're rebuilding

1092
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 2: that and then they overpaid for Kenan Drake to I

1093
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:37,240
Speaker 2: don't know, back up or split carries with Josh Jacobs.

1094
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 2: That was a really weird signing, but they did. They

1095
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 2: add some pieces of this defense. You know, Inkway is

1096
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 2: going to be a good addition. Heyward Quinn, Jefferson, Trayvon

1097
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 2: Marrek was a great pick. I thought, so this defense

1098
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 2: could get better, but I just don't think it's gonna

1099
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 2: be enough to overcome the third toughest schedule. And they

1100
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 2: also lost Nelson Agular so they're gonna need Henry Ruggs

1101
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 2: and Brian Edwards one of them to step up. I

1102
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 2: just don't know if they're there quite yet, so I

1103
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 2: think this team's taking a step back. So I do like,

1104
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 2: come under here. It's a brutal division, so they're my

1105
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 2: favorite that this conference is the under here.

1106
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm an agreement.

1107
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 3: I think when you look at Denver, they're going to

1108
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 3: be strong or at least a team that can beat

1109
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 3: the Raiders. I think the Chargers are a team that,

1110
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 3: given their offensive firepower, are going to be able to

1111
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 3: beat the Raiders. And then I think what's going a

1112
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 3: little bit under talked about is if we think the

1113
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 3: offensive line isn't going to be as good, how does

1114
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 3: that impact Derek Carr Because he's been playing low key

1115
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:43,319
Speaker 3: out of his mind the last couple of years in

1116
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 3: terms of the efficiency, I mean seven point nine yards

1117
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 3: per attempt in twenty nineteen, seven point nine last year

1118
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 3: with twenty seven touchdowns just nine picks. If the O

1119
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:58,720
Speaker 3: line isn't good, I mean Carr really was uncharacteristically fairly

1120
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 3: aggressive last year, going deep more than he had been

1121
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:04,880
Speaker 3: in the past. That's how Nelson Aguilar had that that

1122
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 3: big season.

1123
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 5: Agolar is gone. The O line is not as good.

1124
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 3: I know, they added a whole bunch of guys, and

1125
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 3: I think Henry Ruggs takes a step forward, but still

1126
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 3: if this O line isn't up to snuff the way

1127
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:17,319
Speaker 3: it's been, I could see it's kind of like the

1128
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 3: Mayfield thing where it's like you just you don't know

1129
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:22,160
Speaker 3: how Derek Carr is gonna respond and if he can

1130
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:24,839
Speaker 3: replicate what he's been doing. And that's just you know,

1131
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:28,240
Speaker 3: after factoring and all the other things like that you mentioned, Sean,

1132
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 3: like it's the schedule and you know, just taking a

1133
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 3: step back pretty much across the board. So yeah, I'm

1134
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 3: I'm I'm like being the under for this one too.

1135
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 3: It's hard for me to find an under that I

1136
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 3: like more than the Raiders out of these two divisions

1137
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 3: we just talked about, all right, So we're gonna wrap

1138
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 3: it up with the Action Network NFL Betting Podcast presented

1139
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 3: by Bett MGM with a recap of your favorite over

1140
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:56,280
Speaker 3: and favorite under for the AFC South and AFC West.

1141
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 2: I would say my favorite over is the LA Chargers.

1142
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 2: He and a half at even money. I think this

1143
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:05,800
Speaker 2: head coaching change is gonna send this organization in the

1144
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 2: right direction. I've lost a ton of money on Anthony

1145
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:11,239
Speaker 2: and lenn making boneheaded calls late in the game. I

1146
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,760
Speaker 2: think Brandon Staley will clean that up. He should improve

1147
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:16,400
Speaker 2: this defense that might not be great on paper. He

1148
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 2: should get the most out of them. And I think

1149
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 2: we'll see our first healthy season from Durwin James in

1150
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 2: a few seasons. So love the over here and then

1151
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 2: you know the the Las Vegas Raiders. I'm all over

1152
00:56:27,560 --> 00:56:30,359
Speaker 2: the under here under seven and a half wins. This

1153
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 2: team took a wrecking ball to the offensive line this offseason,

1154
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 2: and then they overspent to get carry and Drake to

1155
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:42,080
Speaker 2: back up Josh Jacobs. Really bizarre moves this This organization

1156
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 2: is heading in the wrong direction. I do like some

1157
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 2: of the moves they made on defense, but overall they're

1158
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:49,840
Speaker 2: not It's not enough to overcome the third toughest schedule.

1159
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 2: So give me the under.

1160
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:53,439
Speaker 4: Sean hit the AFC West. I'm gonna go to the

1161
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 4: AFC South for both of mine. I like the Tennessee

1162
00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:00,319
Speaker 4: Titans under nine and a half wins, and I'm also

1163
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 4: taking a shot on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the

1164
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 4: division at price runs seven to one. There are a

1165
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:08,440
Speaker 4: lot of things. We'll start with the Jaguars. There's a

1166
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 4: lot of things that could go wrong in this division.

1167
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 4: We know the Texans are terrible, the Colts have major

1168
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 4: questions at quarterback. It could go very wrong with Wentzafiev

1169
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 4: and is healthy, and we know Tennessee's defense is very questionable.

1170
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 4: Can Derrick Henry maintain what he's been doing after all

1171
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 4: the carries almost three hundred and eighty carries last year.

1172
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 4: Can Julio Jones stay healthy? If he doesn't, I think

1173
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 4: this offense is in trouble. I don't think the defense

1174
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 4: is going to have any real improvement. So all of

1175
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 4: a sudden, this becomes a wide open division if things

1176
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 4: go wrong with the Titans and the Colts, and who

1177
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:52,080
Speaker 4: knows Trevor Lawrence. I love him. If he comes in

1178
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 4: nice easy start to the schedule, six winnable games. This

1179
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 4: could be turned into the NFC East, where eight or

1180
00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 4: nine wins wins the division, and you know you have

1181
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 4: a rookie quarterback to wins the division. We saw it

1182
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 4: with Andrew Luck. In regards to Tennessee, I make this number,

1183
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 4: you know closer to eight seven eight eight. Defense is

1184
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 4: going to be terrible. I don't think that Henry. You

1185
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,120
Speaker 4: know there's gonna be a drop off at one point,

1186
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:19,919
Speaker 4: and I know Julio when he's in there is still

1187
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 4: being productive, but I'm not sure that he can last

1188
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 4: all seventeen games. You lose Davis, you lose john Neus Smith.

1189
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:29,840
Speaker 4: So I think there's some regression coming for this Tennessee

1190
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 4: team that got very fortunate in close games last year.

1191
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 4: I just think this number is a bit high for

1192
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 4: a team that should be in a lot of shootouts.

1193
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:39,880
Speaker 4: So let me take a shot on the Jags to

1194
00:58:39,920 --> 00:58:42,840
Speaker 4: win what could be a wide open division with each

1195
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 4: of the other teams having major question marks, and I'm

1196
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 4: gonna go under on Tennessee.

1197
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go over on the Kansas City Chiefs. I

1198
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,840
Speaker 3: think that's still an automatic bet for me. I do

1199
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 3: think the O line, despite having some young guys, will

1200
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:01,200
Speaker 3: still be better than it was season down a stretch.

1201
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is thirty eight and six, Andy Reid's eight

1202
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:08,240
Speaker 3: and oh toward the over with his Kansas City Chiefs,

1203
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:11,080
Speaker 3: I think they keep the streak going. And then for

1204
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 3: the under, I'm going with the Raiders as well. I

1205
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 3: just question how well Derek Carr can continue to be

1206
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 3: outliningly efficient compared to earlier in his career now that

1207
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:26,480
Speaker 3: they switched up the offensive line and almost certainly downgraded

1208
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:29,360
Speaker 3: it and just haven't seen enough out of that defense.

1209
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 3: They make changes all the time, but I don't really

1210
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 3: see enough to think they're not still going to be

1211
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 3: a below average to one of the league worst in

1212
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 3: that category. And then you're playing a division where not

1213
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:43,800
Speaker 3: only do we have the Chiefs, but the Broncos are

1214
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 3: better than you and the Chargers are better than you.

1215
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,520
Speaker 3: So Raiders under seven and a half for me, Chief

1216
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 3: over twelve and a half. That is going to wrap

1217
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 3: it up for the second of our AFC Win Total

1218
00:59:56,280 --> 01:00:00,040
Speaker 3: episodes for the Action Network NFL Betting podcast presented I

1219
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 3: Bet MGM. You can find Sean Kerner on Twitter at

1220
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:09,280
Speaker 3: the Underscore Odds Maker. You can find Stucky at Stucky Too,

1221
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 3: and you can find me at Chris Raybond. Be sure

1222
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 3: to also download the award winning Action Network at follow

1223
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 3: us at those same handles, and check out Actionnetwork dot

1224
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:23,760
Speaker 3: com for all of our NFL betting and fantasy content.

1225
01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 5: We'll be back with the NFC Win Total episodes. To

1226
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 5: them with gip the shlay