WEBVTT - NFL Pro Week 6 Preview 0:00:00.270 --> 0:00:03.330 Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 6 Preview Show. Thank 0:00:03.350 --> 0:00:06.409 you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 0:00:06.470 --> 0:00:09.170 wherever you get your podcasts. Be sure to follow and 0:00:09.210 --> 0:00:27.360 subscribe to the show. Welcome back, NFL pro baby. 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:30.470 Brett Coleman, Trevor Sycamore here with you guys to preview 0:00:30.550 --> 0:00:33.390 week six in the NFL, and we're getting right to it. 0:00:33.409 --> 0:00:35.130 We got some big games that we're going to preview 0:00:35.150 --> 0:00:36.530 here on this show, but we got a couple of 0:00:36.590 --> 0:00:38.950 extra topics as well, which is why we're kind of 0:00:38.990 --> 0:00:40.589 jumping into things right away. We're going to take a 0:00:40.590 --> 0:00:45.240 look at the 2024 wide receiver class and talk about, regrade, redraft, 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:47.640 and just have a conversation about the wide receiver position 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:49.260 that was supposed to be one of the best we've 0:00:49.300 --> 0:00:49.720 ever seen. 0:00:50.700 --> 0:00:51.300 Not so much. 0:00:51.460 --> 0:00:51.720 Why? 0:00:51.900 --> 0:00:53.700 We're going to get to your fan questions as well. 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:57.000 Jam-packed show here, but Brett, let's start with a game preview. 0:00:57.340 --> 0:00:59.880 Let's talk about the Buffalo Bills and the Las Vegas 0:00:59.940 --> 0:01:03.220 Raiders doing battle this weekend. Bills coming off of a 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:07.320 thrilling overtime win. Snap by Ferguson, hold by Doman, kick 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:10.819 on the way, and it is good! And the Raiders 0:01:11.140 --> 0:01:13.660 coming off of a loss this week, a bad loss 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:14.660 to the New England Patriots. 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:16.500 We're not happy with what happened today, and we have 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:17.479 to go do something about it. 0:01:17.500 --> 0:01:18.760 We've got to go fix it and move on. How 0:01:18.780 --> 0:01:19.800 do you see this one shaping out, and where do 0:01:19.819 --> 0:01:21.179 you want to start with the discussion in this game? 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.060 I couldn't believe that that was Josh Allen's first overtime 0:01:24.100 --> 0:01:26.440 win of his career. He was 0-7 before that. 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:28.840 Dude, you texted the group that, and I was like, 0:01:28.890 --> 0:01:31.209 that can't be true. And, you know, on the side, 0:01:31.270 --> 0:01:33.050 I went to our NGS people, and I was like, 0:01:33.090 --> 0:01:34.530 Brett's got to be lying about this, right? 0:01:34.550 --> 0:01:35.950 And they're like, no, we were in the numbers. It's 0:01:36.010 --> 0:01:39.780 his first overtime win. And it was still dicey. Like, 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.040 he very easily could have gone 0 for 8. To me, 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:45.320 the big difference in that game, ultimately, was his legs. 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:47.339 It wasn't his arm. And this is something that we've 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:51.280 seen throughout Josh Allen's career, his ability to just break 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.120 a game wide open when all else fails and there's 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:56.240 nothing open down the field. If you lose track of 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:58.120 him in the pocket or if you miss a single 0:01:58.260 --> 0:02:01.730 tackle of him, he can easily turn it into 10, 20, 0:02:01.730 --> 0:02:04.790 30 yards. That's ultimately what happened with the Rams. If 0:02:04.810 --> 0:02:07.650 you're looking at season-long stats so far, and we're only 0:02:07.710 --> 0:02:10.350 five weeks in, He leads the league in scramble rushing 0:02:10.370 --> 0:02:13.250 yards at 202. Most of them came in that game. 0:02:13.430 --> 0:02:18.050 As well as rushing EPA on scrambles at plus 22.7, 0:02:18.050 --> 0:02:21.370 which is absurd for only five weeks into the season. 0:02:21.930 --> 0:02:25.130 He's ranked top six in scramble rush yards in every 0:02:25.690 --> 0:02:28.530 single season since he's joined the league. He is one 0:02:28.570 --> 0:02:31.670 of the best scrambling quarterbacks ever. I would put him 0:02:31.730 --> 0:02:34.450 up there with Steve Young, Michael Vick, all these great 0:02:34.490 --> 0:02:37.090 rushing threats. He's up there with any of them. And 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.730 specifically the Raiders... Looking forward to this game, they're going 0:02:40.750 --> 0:02:42.570 to have to deal with that in a better way 0:02:42.620 --> 0:02:45.540 than they have so far this year. They've allowed 104 0:02:45.540 --> 0:02:48.220 scramble rush yards so far this season. That is seventh 0:02:48.260 --> 0:02:51.560 most in the NFL. 9.5 yards per carry on scrambles, 0:02:51.700 --> 0:02:53.780 also seventh most in the NFL. And while it's only 0:02:53.820 --> 0:02:57.590 been 11 scrambles season long, Josh Allen could very easily 0:02:57.630 --> 0:03:00.779 do it five or six times more. Hell, he did 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:03.460 it nine times against the Rams in five quarters. So 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.060 it's something that they're going to have to do better on. 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:08.060 And I want to show you specifically the mistakes the 0:03:08.139 --> 0:03:11.019 Rams made against Allen, which allowed him to scramble so 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:13.100 much in the first place, as well as how some 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.980 better defenses in the past have kept that in check. 0:03:16.460 --> 0:03:19.320 And Brett, this matchup against the Raiders is interesting because 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.230 you talk about, okay, how do you handle quarterbacks that 0:03:23.330 --> 0:03:26.820 have that option to make plays with their legs and 0:03:26.860 --> 0:03:28.620 a lot of times it's all right well does this 0:03:28.660 --> 0:03:31.040 go into how much we feel like we can call 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.700 man coverage because man coverage especially if you're playing you 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:35.640 know press man coverage which we saw the Raiders do 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:37.920 a lot of last week your backs to the ball 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:39.480 and anytime you got a lot of defenders with their 0:03:39.500 --> 0:03:41.530 backs to the ball because you've got vertical routes going 0:03:41.540 --> 0:03:43.670 downfield you're playing in man coverage well then Josh Allen 0:03:43.690 --> 0:03:47.510 just goes okay I got one guy maybe to beat 0:03:47.590 --> 0:03:50.110 and then I'm getting you know 10-15 yards or maybe 0:03:50.190 --> 0:03:52.660 even more than that that's when it's advantageous for those 0:03:52.700 --> 0:03:56.000 really athletic quarterbacks. And so we talked in the reaction 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:59.980 show earlier this week about how the Raiders game plan, unfortunately, 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:02.590 was kind of perfect for Drake May to take advantage 0:04:02.650 --> 0:04:04.450 of it. And I kind of think that they have 0:04:04.490 --> 0:04:07.310 to pivot against Josh Allen because Josh Allen presents a 0:04:07.350 --> 0:04:10.470 lot of the same issues for them. So I'm very 0:04:10.510 --> 0:04:13.670 interested to see how the Raiders are going to change 0:04:13.750 --> 0:04:16.270 up their defense this week as opposed to last week 0:04:16.290 --> 0:04:18.260 because Drake May killed him in that area. But I 0:04:18.260 --> 0:04:20.339 do kind of want to touch on Ashen Jenty because 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:25.010 he is absolutely just not as efficient or explosive as 0:04:25.070 --> 0:04:28.070 he was last year. Now, he did suffer the ankle 0:04:28.110 --> 0:04:32.070 sprain earlier this year in training camp, and Kubiak after 0:04:32.110 --> 0:04:34.350 the game was kind of saying, yeah, he's gutting it out. 0:04:34.390 --> 0:04:36.659 He didn't straight up say like, yeah, he's still playing 0:04:36.740 --> 0:04:38.360 super hurt, but he was saying that he was gutting 0:04:38.380 --> 0:04:39.900 it out. He was toughing it out to be out there. 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.660 But I have kind of noticed, you see the missed 0:04:42.740 --> 0:04:45.359 tackle rate number is almost down a full 10% for 0:04:45.380 --> 0:04:49.270 him this year. The yards per carry average is also 0:04:49.310 --> 0:04:52.250 down for him. It's not all of his fault. There's 0:04:52.270 --> 0:04:55.510 some offensive line issues as well. The yards before contact 0:04:55.630 --> 0:04:58.280 average are also down. So I went back and I 0:04:58.339 --> 0:05:01.060 looked at last game against the Patriots and I did 0:05:01.260 --> 0:05:02.620 find some hints to. 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.060 Say maybe he is a little bit more hurt than 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:09.090 we thought. So taking that into account, right? Jenty isn't 0:05:10.089 --> 0:05:13.210 entirely the Boise State version of Gentee that we know 0:05:13.250 --> 0:05:15.250 and love, or even last year's version of Gentee that 0:05:15.310 --> 0:05:18.690 was really just fighting through everything at the same time 0:05:18.770 --> 0:05:20.380 because their offensive line was so bad and it felt 0:05:20.390 --> 0:05:22.680 like Ashton Gentee versus the world, which it kind of was. 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:27.200 If he's not 100%, it certainly does seem like this 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:30.240 whole offense is just Brock, save us. 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:31.400 And it's worked. 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:33.180 It's caught! 0:05:33.300 --> 0:05:37.740 Remarkable! Bowers has the touchdown! Like that has worked. He's 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:39.820 the only player to rank in the top five in 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:42.310 yards per route run from the slot and out wide, 0:05:43.029 --> 0:05:45.690 which he's not really a tight end. If we're looking 0:05:45.730 --> 0:05:47.370 at how a traditional tight end is used, like he's 0:05:47.410 --> 0:05:51.029 basically a receiver, but he is arguably the most effective 0:05:51.070 --> 0:05:54.289 receiver in the league so far this year. 3.2 yards 0:05:54.330 --> 0:05:57.240 per route run from the slot, which is fifth 3.9 0:05:57.240 --> 0:06:00.040 yards per route run out wide. That's four. That's basically 0:06:00.180 --> 0:06:04.850 JSN numbers. He's just been absolutely absurd. And he has 0:06:04.890 --> 0:06:07.070 been able to carry the load for this Raiders passing 0:06:07.089 --> 0:06:11.570 game so far. The thing that I'm wondering is, okay, 0:06:11.910 --> 0:06:16.310 if the Bills just dedicate a bracket to him, and 0:06:16.380 --> 0:06:19.200 if we're not as worried about Jenty as maybe we 0:06:19.240 --> 0:06:22.640 would have been in years past, just because he's clearly 0:06:22.700 --> 0:06:25.820 not moving the same as of right now, What are 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.560 the other options the Raiders have to keep pace with 0:06:28.580 --> 0:06:30.120 Josh Allen? Because we know they're going to have to 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:32.980 keep pace with Josh Allen. Do they have any other 0:06:33.060 --> 0:06:35.840 club in the bag? That's what worries me the most 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:40.380 about this team. 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:43.419 You mentioning Brock Bauer sort of as a tight end 0:06:43.500 --> 0:06:46.240 by position on the depth chart only, that kind of 0:06:46.740 --> 0:06:48.960 brought up an interesting conversation when we were talking about 0:06:49.000 --> 0:07:03.540 what we And it hasn't exactly panned out that way. 0:07:03.660 --> 0:07:09.210 And Bowers, who's played 41.6% of his snaps from the slot, 39% 0:07:09.210 --> 0:07:11.110 of his snaps out wide as a wide receiver, and 0:07:11.130 --> 0:07:14.550 just 16.9% of his snaps aligned as like his true 0:07:14.590 --> 0:07:17.450 tight end. He really might get paid like a wide receiver. 0:07:17.890 --> 0:07:20.750 And Brett, when you look at this wide receiver class, 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:23.740 he might get paid the most out of all of 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:24.560 those wide receivers. 0:07:24.820 --> 0:07:25.820 Marvin Harrison Jr. 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:28.240 Was in the news for the wrong reasons because the 0:07:28.260 --> 0:07:30.140 team that drafted him gave up on him already and 0:07:30.180 --> 0:07:32.920 traded him. Malik Neighbors has had the injury. Roma Dunze 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:35.440 has been disappointing for what we thought of him pre-draft 0:07:35.460 --> 0:07:37.020 and where he was drafted. And that you just go 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:40.750 down the list. That 2024 wide receiver class, again, we 0:07:40.790 --> 0:07:42.190 thought was going to be phenomenal. 0:07:42.370 --> 0:07:44.970 And yet it's been disappointing. 0:07:45.050 --> 0:07:46.730 I think that I have to use that word here 0:07:46.770 --> 0:07:47.310 with this class. 0:07:48.630 --> 0:07:51.070 Hell, I think I will actually go down the list. 0:07:51.330 --> 0:07:52.950 And this is in no particular order. These are just 0:07:53.030 --> 0:07:55.900 all the highly drafted receivers from that class. Xavier Worthy 0:07:56.060 --> 0:08:00.580 has negative 382 receiving yards over expected since the start 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:04.500 of 2024. Fewest in the NFL. Roma Dunzey has the 0:08:04.650 --> 0:08:08.550 second fewest, negative 315. So that's not good company to keep. 0:08:08.980 --> 0:08:09.200 A.D. 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:12.960 Mitchell has the third fewest at negative 277. He also 0:08:12.980 --> 0:08:16.880 has the fourth fewest receiving EPA at negative 24.6. Jalen 0:08:16.900 --> 0:08:20.240 Polk has the sixth fewest receiving EPA. Not in the 0:08:20.260 --> 0:08:23.440 league anymore, by the way. Marvin Harrison Jr., already been traded. 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.830 He's only the third top five pick to be traded 0:08:26.870 --> 0:08:29.850 within his first three years with his team in the 0:08:29.890 --> 0:08:34.900 last 17 years, so 10%. That's a very rare thing 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:38.839 to happen. And then specifically with Leggett, Polk, A.D. Mitchell, Odunze, 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:42.800 and Pearsall, their teams, if you're looking at on-off splits, 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:45.910 get more EPA per play with them off the field 0:08:45.990 --> 0:08:50.230 than on so far. So it just hasn't really worked out. 0:08:50.250 --> 0:08:52.989 I mean, Malik's been great when he's been healthy, but 0:08:53.350 --> 0:08:56.130 there was that major injury. McConkie, again, he's been great 0:08:56.150 --> 0:08:57.740 when he's been healthy, but it feels like he's just 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:02.770 perpetually banged up. So it's just... That draft class to 0:09:02.809 --> 0:09:08.530 me is the billboard for why receiver is not exactly 0:09:08.590 --> 0:09:11.449 a slam dunk to take in the first round. Historically speaking, 0:09:11.650 --> 0:09:14.840 first round receivers, like their bust rate is very high 0:09:14.910 --> 0:09:18.400 compared to say an interior offensive lineman or even a 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:21.960 running back. Like it's higher hit rates for those position 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:25.380 groups than receiver. And yet teams still feel like they're 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.679 kind of forced into taking them early because you typically 0:09:28.720 --> 0:09:30.840 have to have three receivers on the field. And if 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:33.460 one gets injured, your fourth guy has to be good too. 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:35.400 And if two get injured, your fifth guy has to 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:37.660 be good. So it's a position that you need a 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:41.240 lot of quality at. And if you're looking at cap 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.740 percentages and how the market has grown, the receiver market 0:09:44.780 --> 0:09:47.560 has exploded so much that you feel like you have 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.370 to get these rookie deals with five years of contract 0:09:50.410 --> 0:09:52.790 control in the first round just to be able to 0:09:52.830 --> 0:09:56.190 make your team or even just your offense affordable. 0:09:56.450 --> 0:09:59.770 And I found this tweet from Dan Griff's where if 0:09:59.790 --> 0:10:01.960 you look... at the top 10 highest paid guys at 0:10:01.980 --> 0:10:05.320 the position the growth of that top 10 average for 0:10:05.380 --> 0:10:08.540 wide receiver is second only to quarterbacks so this position 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:12.540 is not only getting paid more it's growing more at 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:15.199 a at a higher rate than any other position we're 0:10:15.220 --> 0:10:17.559 talking offensive tackles edge rushers these guys that you think 0:10:17.580 --> 0:10:20.400 just get crazy money so are wide receivers now so 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:23.780 now like you just said not only are you having 0:10:23.830 --> 0:10:26.270 to pay maybe your wide receiver one, if he's one 0:10:26.290 --> 0:10:29.150 of the best in the NFL, truly top money outside 0:10:29.170 --> 0:10:32.030 of the quarterback position, you also have to fill these 0:10:32.070 --> 0:10:35.109 other positions. You also want good wide receivers at these 0:10:35.170 --> 0:10:38.250 other positions. And so it just, it is fascinating how 0:10:38.620 --> 0:10:44.200 we get a draft like 2024 that was as disappointing 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.320 as it could have been relative to the expectations. And 0:10:47.380 --> 0:10:51.570 yet teams are still going to draft wide receiver. Because 0:10:51.809 --> 0:10:53.490 I think for the longest time, we've always just thought 0:10:53.510 --> 0:10:58.199 of wide receiver as a true talent need and want 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:00.199 in the draft. You want to have better pass catchers. 0:11:00.220 --> 0:11:01.780 You want to help out your quarterback. You want to 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:04.240 score more points. But it is much more of a 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:08.380 cap strategy selection as well than I think it's given 0:11:08.420 --> 0:11:10.559 credit for. So even with some of these disappointing selections, 0:11:10.860 --> 0:11:12.820 I don't think we're going to see teams slow down 0:11:12.860 --> 0:11:14.840 on wanting to get these top wide receivers anytime soon. 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:17.280 A while back, I actually did pull a bunch of 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:21.240 data for what like the highest paid receiving tandems ever 0:11:21.300 --> 0:11:23.540 were going back about 20 years in terms of their 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:27.620 individual cap percentages. I was looking at like Reggie, ironically, 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:31.380 Marvin Harrison Sr. You know, you're looking at that Anquan Bolden, 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:35.780 Larry Fitzgerald combo, you know, all of these great receiving 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:38.860 tandems where two guys are getting a thousand yards. Basically, 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:43.880 none of them were paid a total percentage combined anywhere 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:47.070 near what Jamar and T Higgins are getting, or even 0:11:47.150 --> 0:11:49.810 what like Tyreek and Waddle were getting in Miami. This 0:11:49.870 --> 0:11:54.489 is a very new phenomenon across the NFL. I'm not 0:11:54.610 --> 0:11:58.920 entirely sure if it works, right? Investing that much receiver. 0:11:58.940 --> 0:12:00.980 We'll see what the Cowboys do with George Pickens. They 0:12:01.020 --> 0:12:02.760 could be another team that does it pretty soon here. 0:12:03.250 --> 0:12:04.989 So I'm not entirely sure if it works, but I 0:12:05.050 --> 0:12:07.500 do know that teams feel like they have to do it, 0:12:08.010 --> 0:12:11.490 which in itself is an indicator of where front offices 0:12:11.530 --> 0:12:14.990 are going these days. They are prioritizing receiver. They're drafting them. 0:12:15.410 --> 0:12:17.960 If they don't work, they're paying guys to come in 0:12:18.100 --> 0:12:21.500 in other ways. Like they're throwing so much capital money-wise 0:12:21.540 --> 0:12:24.440 and picks-wise into this position group. It's kind of hard 0:12:24.460 --> 0:12:28.340 to ignore. Mike Evans is an unstoppable machine. 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:31.929 When you look at the wide receiver position, Total cap 0:12:31.970 --> 0:12:33.290 percentages here. 0:12:33.350 --> 0:12:34.809 In 2024, it was 8.9%. And wide receivers gained 44% 0:12:34.809 --> 0:12:36.719 of the total yards for offenses. In 2025, it was 8.7%. 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.680 So right around the same, a little bit less. 0:12:38.700 --> 0:12:39.640 And total yards was 43%. 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:49.750 But then in 2026... Now it's all the way up 0:12:49.809 --> 0:12:52.469 to 9.4% in the percentage of total yards. It's more 0:12:52.490 --> 0:12:54.530 of a passing league right now, and so we're looking 0:12:54.550 --> 0:12:58.380 at 45%. So the percentages of total yards that the 0:12:58.420 --> 0:13:02.440 wide receiver position helps you gain has been relatively the same, 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.460 and yet you're paying more for it, and I think 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:07.880 that it is going in that direction, which we bring 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:09.440 it all back to Brock Bowers, how he sort of 0:13:09.460 --> 0:13:11.990 started this transition into this topic. You look at Bowers 0:13:12.030 --> 0:13:14.890 in that 2024 draft class. He's going to have the 0:13:14.929 --> 0:13:18.530 highest contract, especially for exactly where it's going. And especially 0:13:18.670 --> 0:13:21.230 if he's able to stack on the fact that he goes, yeah, 0:13:21.490 --> 0:13:24.689 I'm better at wide receiver than all of these other guys. 0:13:24.910 --> 0:13:27.880 And also I happen to be listed as a tight end. 0:13:27.929 --> 0:13:29.699 I think that Brock Bauer is going to have a 0:13:29.820 --> 0:13:32.459 strong case given where the cap is going and how 0:13:32.540 --> 0:13:36.320 he is utilized to have a pretty strong second contract. 0:13:35.900 --> 0:13:38.330 There for him. I mean, this team paid $ 27 million 0:13:38.370 --> 0:13:39.530 a year for a center. What do you think they're 0:13:39.550 --> 0:13:41.270 going to give Brock Bowers? Cousins! 0:13:41.290 --> 0:13:41.610 Fires! 0:13:41.910 --> 0:13:48.679 Bowers! Wrestled in! Touchdown Raiders! All right, a little break 0:13:48.700 --> 0:13:50.240 in the action for a fun segment here. 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:52.819 We're going to bring back Blind Resume. I'm going to 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:56.000 have some categories of a single team and then a 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:58.160 multiple choice question for Brett to answer. And he's going 0:13:58.179 --> 0:14:01.500 to have one for me as well. Brett, your Blind 0:14:01.620 --> 0:14:02.790 Resume team here. 0:14:03.990 --> 0:14:07.500 They are 4th. In total, EPA. 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:15.359 Fifth in success rate. And first in rush yards over expected. 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:20.660 Is it the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, or 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:21.830 the Atlanta Falcons? 0:14:22.620 --> 0:14:28.910 Oh, man. That's bait. That's 100% bait. Oh, Callie's trying 0:14:28.930 --> 0:14:31.970 to screw with me. So the rushing yards over expected, right? 0:14:32.810 --> 0:14:35.990 That's the thing that's really screwing with me here. Because 0:14:36.390 --> 0:14:39.410 Kenneth Walker gets a lot of rushing yards over expected 0:14:39.430 --> 0:14:45.300 because he's breaking tackles. And same with Bijan. Wow, man. 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:53.160 I'll go Kansas City. That seems more correct, which means 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:57.780 I'm probably wrong. Final answer? Final answer. It is, in fact, 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:01.460 the Kansas City Chiefs. Finally. Oh, my God. You nailed it. 0:15:01.490 --> 0:15:04.610 Good job. Good job, my friend. That was close. You're right. 0:15:04.730 --> 0:15:06.690 The rushing yards over-expected. 0:15:06.990 --> 0:15:08.770 It could have been either of those teams, but the 0:15:08.850 --> 0:15:12.430 giveaway should have been the fact that Atlanta doesn't have 0:15:12.530 --> 0:15:16.190 that consistent of an offense to be fourth in total EPA, 0:15:16.530 --> 0:15:20.340 fifth in total success rate overall. The Bichon factor has 0:15:20.380 --> 0:15:23.100 definitely been there for them, but I don't think that 0:15:23.140 --> 0:15:26.860 they have that level of consistency to them, but. 0:15:27.890 --> 0:15:32.250 Cooper Rush, I think, immediately disqualifies you from any high-ranking game. 0:15:32.270 --> 0:15:36.390 That's kind of what I was thinking, yeah. All right, 0:15:36.490 --> 0:15:42.180 your blind resume. This team is 6th in offensive success rate, 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:50.020 4th in third-down conversions, 1st in scoring drive rate. It's 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:56.920 the most efficient scoring offense. scoring drive rate. What are 0:15:56.950 --> 0:15:59.290 the three teams? Who do I have to guess? Oh yeah. 0:15:59.310 --> 0:16:04.970 I probably should have given you that. Uh, 49ers, 49ers, Cowboys, Rams. 0:16:07.890 --> 0:16:09.570 Before you gave me the teams, I was immediately thinking 0:16:09.590 --> 0:16:10.369 about the 49ers. 0:16:11.370 --> 0:16:11.630 Okay. 0:16:11.670 --> 0:16:13.050 That's where my mind would have gone. 0:16:13.070 --> 0:16:13.350 Yeah. 0:16:13.490 --> 0:16:14.270 Yeah. Yeah. 0:16:14.700 --> 0:16:17.220 Um, Cowboys have. 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:21.180 Scored a lot. We talked about this stat like two 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.000 weeks ago for them. And then what was the last team? 0:16:24.100 --> 0:16:26.080 It was the, It was the Cowboys and Niners. 0:16:27.260 --> 0:16:28.160 Rams. 0:16:29.250 --> 0:16:32.590 I don't think it's the Rams. They've missed too many 0:16:32.630 --> 0:16:34.350 field goals. They've had too many turnovers. 0:16:34.470 --> 0:16:36.590 I don't think it's the Rams. While you think about it, 0:16:36.630 --> 0:16:38.590 by the way, for those of you that are at home, 0:16:38.870 --> 0:16:43.190 go look at the play-by-play of the Monday night game, Bills-Rams, 0:16:43.410 --> 0:16:46.370 because a whole lot didn't happen for a lot of 0:16:46.390 --> 0:16:48.070 that game because there were so many penalties. It was 0:16:48.090 --> 0:16:49.630 like 24 penalties. You get to the end of the 0:16:49.650 --> 0:16:53.270 third quarter. And it's Bills touchdown, Rams touchdown, Bills touchdown, 0:16:53.330 --> 0:16:57.070 Rams touchdown, Bills touchdown, Rams touchdown. They're just massively inflating 0:16:57.110 --> 0:17:00.450 their scoring drive rates from about a 17-minute period of 0:17:00.490 --> 0:17:01.050 game clock. 0:17:01.470 --> 0:17:04.649 Are you not entertained? It's punishing anybody who wants to 0:17:04.690 --> 0:17:05.520 leave the games early. 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:06.220 That's what that is. 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.580 I'm going to go with the Dallas Cowboys. I'm going 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:11.700 to guess the Dallas Cowboys. 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:17.770 We are two for two. Let's go, baby. Got her. 0:17:19.140 --> 0:17:23.859 You love to see that kind of top-tier ball knowledge. 0:17:24.980 --> 0:17:27.580 All right, next game on the docket, Cowboys-Packers. This one's 0:17:27.619 --> 0:17:29.840 fascinating to me, because they just brought in Mike Pettin 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:32.520 this week, and they made it known that they brought 0:17:32.580 --> 0:17:36.500 in Mike Pettin. This was not an under-the-radar hiring. This was, 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:39.980 we are bringing in Mike to help fix us. Not 0:17:40.010 --> 0:17:43.400 that I think Christian Parker is getting replaced. I don't 0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:46.330 think Mike Pettin is taking over or anything like that, 0:17:46.430 --> 0:17:49.960 but they... clearly identified that they needed help. They needed 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:53.570 to bring in an expert that could help this defense 0:17:53.670 --> 0:17:55.670 not be the worst in the league, to put it 0:17:55.730 --> 0:17:58.889 diplomatically speaking. Now, Who is Mike Pettin? He is a 0:17:59.010 --> 0:18:02.800 Rex Ryan disciple going back to the mid 2000s Ravens days. 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.659 If you're looking at that ultra aggressive defense with like 0:18:05.740 --> 0:18:09.480 Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Nada, like all of these guys, 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:12.240 Mike Pettin was there with him. He was the defensive 0:18:12.300 --> 0:18:15.040 coordinator under Rex in New York back in like the 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:20.800 prime Revis era. Very, very aggressive defensive play caller known 0:18:20.859 --> 0:18:22.719 for putting a lot of bodies on the line of scrimmage. 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:24.920 He and I think Mike Zimmer were probably the two 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:29.070 guys that were most known for mug looks. Putting linebackers 0:18:29.180 --> 0:18:31.210 up in the line of scrimmage, in the A-gap, in 0:18:31.250 --> 0:18:35.109 the B-gap, and trying to make offenses really operate on 0:18:35.150 --> 0:18:45.550 their back foot. That's what he's most known for. It 0:18:45.690 --> 0:18:49.370 kind of feels like the Cowboys want to do that 0:18:49.510 --> 0:18:53.980 more because the more Fangio-ish style, which I wouldn't say 0:18:54.100 --> 0:18:57.460 is passive. I would say when you have the talent 0:18:57.500 --> 0:19:01.560 to do that style, it's very Boa constrictory, whereas Petten 0:19:01.660 --> 0:19:04.480 is more like a Cobra, like he's going to strike 0:19:04.500 --> 0:19:05.400 you and kill you quickly. 0:19:05.500 --> 0:19:07.979 I think anything compared to like what Petten, who was 0:19:08.070 --> 0:19:09.790 on the Viking staff over the last couple of years, 0:19:09.830 --> 0:19:12.110 does with Flores, I think anything compared to that would 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:14.170 be passive. So you're not, I don't think you're ruffling 0:19:14.210 --> 0:19:15.430 any feathers saying that. 0:19:15.730 --> 0:19:19.609 But it certainly feels like they recognize the more conservative 0:19:19.630 --> 0:19:23.070 boa constrictor style is not going well. So they want 0:19:23.090 --> 0:19:23.750 to switch things up. 0:19:24.270 --> 0:19:27.070 Right. And Petten's background, and I think that everything that 0:19:27.109 --> 0:19:28.869 he could potentially bring to the table here for the 0:19:28.890 --> 0:19:32.290 Cowboys does make this matchup against the Packers very interesting. 0:19:32.350 --> 0:19:35.459 So Pettin was actually defensive coordinator for the Green Bay 0:19:35.500 --> 0:19:39.470 Packers from 2018 to 2020. Now, Jordan Love got drafted 0:19:39.570 --> 0:19:42.070 in 2020, so Love was there in Pettin's final season. 0:19:42.369 --> 0:19:44.869 But as you guys know, Love didn't start until 2023 0:19:44.869 --> 0:19:47.770 because Aaron Rodgers was still there. So yeah, I mean, 0:19:47.790 --> 0:19:49.389 like he was around him and everything, but I don't 0:19:49.430 --> 0:19:52.260 really think the impact was that big of a takeaway 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:54.120 going all the way back to when they were sort 0:19:54.140 --> 0:19:56.080 of in the same building instead what I think is 0:19:56.100 --> 0:19:59.450 a little bit more valuable here is that Pettin was 0:19:59.510 --> 0:20:03.980 an assistant head coach slash became also the outside linebackers 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:07.200 coach for the Minnesota Vikings it was from 2022 to 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:10.520 2025 but specifically this matters if we take it from 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:13.080 2023 to 2025 because those are the years when Jordan 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:15.619 Love became the starter for the Green Bay Packers so 0:20:15.660 --> 0:20:18.869 we do have a handful of games that yes it's 0:20:19.010 --> 0:20:21.910 Flores's defense but Mike Pettin is still there I think 0:20:21.950 --> 0:20:23.930 the influence is the same he was a position coach 0:20:23.970 --> 0:20:25.570 he was probably consulted on a lot of this stuff 0:20:25.609 --> 0:20:28.750 and I think that his ultra-aggressive style, like you mentioned, 0:20:29.050 --> 0:20:31.690 is very in line with what Flores has wanted to 0:20:31.730 --> 0:20:33.869 do and has done with the Minnesota Vikings. 0:20:34.109 --> 0:20:35.130 Love versus Flores. 0:20:35.390 --> 0:20:40.210 Since 2023, 7.2 yards per attempt, 60.6 completion percentage, negative 0:20:40.210 --> 0:20:43.670 3.9 completion percentage over expected, and a negative EPA per dropback. 0:20:43.930 --> 0:20:49.280 Love versus everyone else since 2023, 7.6 yards per attempt, 0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:53.159 64.6 completion percentage, a positive completion percentage over expected, and 0:20:53.180 --> 0:20:56.520 a positive EPA per dropback. So, Brian Flores has been 0:20:56.540 --> 0:20:57.919 one of the best defense coordinators of the league over 0:20:57.940 --> 0:21:02.080 the last couple of years. That is true against Jordan Love. Specifically, though, Vikings, 0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.720 in double-mugged looks from 2023 to 2025, that's sample size. 0:21:05.920 --> 0:21:08.220 They had double-mugged looks, so linebackers walked up to the 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:11.660 line of scrimmage on 12.7% of their plays, almost double 0:21:11.820 --> 0:21:15.000 more than any other team. And then specifically on third 0:21:15.100 --> 0:21:19.980 down in that time frame, 25.4% of their plays have 0:21:20.020 --> 0:21:22.460 had a double-mugged look on third down. That is, once again, 0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:23.060 first innings. 0:21:23.580 --> 0:21:24.360 In the NFL. 0:21:24.590 --> 0:21:26.770 They did that more against the Packers and Jordan Love 0:21:26.790 --> 0:21:31.530 than all the others, 28.8% versus the Packers versus 24.9% 0:21:31.530 --> 0:21:35.510 against all other teams. Now, to me, the transition here 0:21:35.609 --> 0:21:37.490 is you look at what Jordan Love did really well 0:21:37.530 --> 0:21:39.270 last week. He was throwing the ball deep. Okay, well, 0:21:39.290 --> 0:21:41.950 how does this all factor into limiting what Jordan Love 0:21:41.970 --> 0:21:45.260 can do as a deep ball passer? Against the Vikings, 0:21:45.340 --> 0:21:49.210 when it comes to attacking deep, Love versus Flores, 13.6% 0:21:49.210 --> 0:21:52.290 deep rate percentage, but a 33.3% success rate. 0:21:52.470 --> 0:21:52.940 Love vs. 0:21:52.980 --> 0:21:56.300 Everyone Else, 13.1% deep rate, so basically the same. He's 0:21:56.320 --> 0:21:59.659 just trying to do this every game. but a 38.6% 0:21:59.660 --> 0:22:01.680 success rate. So a little bit less of a completion 0:22:01.700 --> 0:22:05.860 percentage and success rate overall for Love versus Flores attacking 0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:08.240 deep versus all the other coordinators. Love was great on 0:22:08.260 --> 0:22:11.230 the blitz last week, nine for 12, 176 yards and 0:22:11.250 --> 0:22:15.630 a touchdown. But again, when you look at the Vikings specifically, 0:22:15.770 --> 0:22:18.429 when Mike Pettin was there, Love had a game where 0:22:18.450 --> 0:22:21.430 he threw three interceptions in 2024 against the Viking. Two 0:22:21.450 --> 0:22:24.679 of those interceptions were, guess what? Double mugged looks and 0:22:24.740 --> 0:22:27.060 another throw that was incomplete that could have been intercepted 0:22:27.390 --> 0:22:30.250 came from a double mug pressure as well. Jordan Love 0:22:30.270 --> 0:22:32.650 has only thrown three interceptions in a single game twice 0:22:32.670 --> 0:22:35.580 in his career. One of them, you guessed it, versus 0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:38.140 the Vikings when Mike Pettin was there. That's a lot 0:22:38.180 --> 0:22:39.939 of information, a lot of things to throw at you 0:22:39.960 --> 0:22:43.150 guys to basically just say the Cowboys want to be 0:22:43.330 --> 0:22:44.070 more aggressive. 0:22:44.410 --> 0:22:46.210 I think if anything, because you're not going to change 0:22:46.250 --> 0:22:48.890 the system overnight, I think if anything, Pettin was brought 0:22:48.950 --> 0:22:51.300 in this week to be an expert on on how 0:22:51.490 --> 0:22:55.280 to attack Matt LaFleur's protections. Because he knows this protection 0:22:55.300 --> 0:22:57.940 scheme very well. He knows everything the Packers like to do. 0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:00.580 He's very well attuned to how they like to keep 0:23:00.619 --> 0:23:04.320 Jordan Love clean. And they're doing it with a, on paper, 0:23:04.619 --> 0:23:07.060 much worse offensive line this year than they have in 0:23:07.100 --> 0:23:09.840 years past. So if anybody can kind of be that 0:23:09.980 --> 0:23:12.940 last second ringer that comes in and does an install 0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:16.340 of like, hey, here's what Jordan Love likes on certain 0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:18.960 insert distance and in certain areas of the field. Here's 0:23:19.000 --> 0:23:21.520 how we can attack it, right? Here's who their weak 0:23:21.580 --> 0:23:23.680 link is. What's the best way to isolate that weak link? 0:23:23.700 --> 0:23:27.040 Whether it's a running back, a tight end, a backup guard, whatever. 0:23:27.760 --> 0:23:30.859 Petten is very good at just finding the thing that 0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:34.350 you do the worst and pressing that button over and 0:23:34.380 --> 0:23:36.159 over again. I feel like that's what he's going to 0:23:36.180 --> 0:23:44.530 do for Dallas. All right, next game on the docket, Texans-Jags. 0:23:48.570 --> 0:23:50.610 Duval County's been very upset with us. We haven't talked 0:23:50.650 --> 0:23:55.149 about the Jags nearly enough this season. It's kind of 0:23:55.250 --> 0:23:59.540 early for the whole must-win game thing, but this certainly 0:23:59.600 --> 0:24:00.630 feels like a must-win game. 0:24:01.040 --> 0:24:04.459 It does for the Texans specifically because you beat the 0:24:04.540 --> 0:24:09.719 Titans last week. You go to 1-4, but you are 0:24:09.760 --> 0:24:13.140 in a situation where if you look at the next-gen stats, 0:24:13.859 --> 0:24:16.960 playoff probability that we have, if they win this game 0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:20.880 against Jacksonville, they have a 34% chance to make the playoffs. 0:24:20.940 --> 0:24:22.920 Right now it's at 23%. So if you beat the Jags, 0:24:23.119 --> 0:24:25.600 that jumps up 11%. Now, obviously this could change a 0:24:25.619 --> 0:24:27.480 little bit depending on what happens around the league, but 0:24:27.740 --> 0:24:29.520 that's what we have right now. If they lose this game, 0:24:29.820 --> 0:24:32.020 it goes all the way down to 14%. And this 0:24:32.080 --> 0:24:34.639 game matters a lot, not just in the win-loss column, 0:24:34.660 --> 0:24:37.030 but also the fact that if the Texans lose this game, 0:24:37.070 --> 0:24:40.129 they drop to 1-5. And Jacksonville is then at the 0:24:40.170 --> 0:24:42.689 top of the division at 5-1. If you're the Texans, 0:24:42.730 --> 0:24:44.889 you can kiss winning this division goodbye. Like you are 0:24:44.930 --> 0:24:48.560 just praying, PRAYING, for a wild card at that point. 0:24:48.800 --> 0:24:51.020 Now their next four games, they do have the Giants, 0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:53.200 the Chargers, the Browns, and the Colts. I think all 0:24:53.260 --> 0:24:56.960 those games are winnable for them. But given that they 0:24:57.000 --> 0:25:00.060 have dug themselves such a hole, you've got to win 0:25:00.119 --> 0:25:03.260 some games that maybe on paper at the time you 0:25:03.280 --> 0:25:05.590 weren't expected to win. And I think that it's tough 0:25:05.770 --> 0:25:07.880 to look at what I think is a top three 0:25:07.920 --> 0:25:10.250 team in the NFL. And I would argue the number 0:25:10.369 --> 0:25:12.150 one team in the NFL right now and say, there 0:25:12.190 --> 0:25:14.310 it is. We'd like to get that win on the schedule. 0:25:14.350 --> 0:25:17.370 But you're kind of, in this situation for a reason 0:25:17.390 --> 0:25:19.949 so look we've talked plenty about the Texans right we've 0:25:19.990 --> 0:25:22.080 talked about how their offensive line has still been up 0:25:22.100 --> 0:25:24.179 and down their run game especially in the short yardage 0:25:24.220 --> 0:25:26.660 has not been what it's needed to be the pass 0:25:26.720 --> 0:25:29.419 rush especially with Will Anderson has been fantastic for them 0:25:29.440 --> 0:25:31.280 and that's interesting going up against the Jags who are 0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:33.460 now starting Walker Little but you know Walker Little has 0:25:33.480 --> 0:25:36.300 still started 39 games in his career so it's not 0:25:36.340 --> 0:25:40.150 like he's experienced Yeah, he's never started before. Isn't Anton Harrison? No, 0:25:40.230 --> 0:25:42.730 but I think that it's not like ultimate panic button. 0:25:42.990 --> 0:25:44.780 The defense hasn't been what you've wanted it to be, 0:25:44.820 --> 0:25:46.480 but you figured that's going to bounce back. But bounce 0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:49.399 back how much? Can you rattle a Jags team that 0:25:49.440 --> 0:25:52.760 has been, for the most part, fantastic this season in 0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:55.540 so many different areas of the game? They've been very balanced. 0:25:55.560 --> 0:25:58.930 They play extremely complementary football for offense, defense, run game, 0:25:58.950 --> 0:26:00.170 pass game, special teams. 0:25:59.990 --> 0:26:00.650 Involved as well. 0:26:00.950 --> 0:26:02.430 It's why I would argue they're the best team in 0:26:02.470 --> 0:26:02.950 the NFL. 0:26:02.990 --> 0:26:04.590 And it's tough to. 0:26:05.330 --> 0:26:07.629 Have the Texans staring down the barrel of this and 0:26:07.670 --> 0:26:09.890 saying that this is a must-win game, but unfortunately, Brett, 0:26:10.010 --> 0:26:12.129 I do think this is a must-win game for them. 0:26:12.150 --> 0:26:14.369 Here's pressure, and here's Will Anderson Jr. 0:26:14.390 --> 0:26:18.080 With the sack! On the Jags side of things, you know, 0:26:18.100 --> 0:26:19.900 maybe while we haven't talked about the Jags as much 0:26:19.960 --> 0:26:23.120 as Jags fans want us to, there are several things 0:26:23.140 --> 0:26:25.780 that we praise them for so far this season. Game 0:26:25.840 --> 0:26:29.490 management hasn't necessarily been one of them. Liam Cohen, back-to-back weeks, 0:26:29.830 --> 0:26:33.689 questionable at best game management. and specifically play calling in 0:26:33.750 --> 0:26:36.430 key downs and distances. But everything else about this team 0:26:36.930 --> 0:26:39.930 we have really liked. Trevor specifically has been on a 0:26:39.970 --> 0:26:42.970 tear so far this year. He's been exceptional over the 0:26:42.990 --> 0:26:45.240 middle of the field. He and Stroud both are in 0:26:45.280 --> 0:26:47.080 the top five quarterbacks as far as middle of the 0:26:47.100 --> 0:26:50.159 field target rate, and their offenses have both been awesome 0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:53.880 because of that. If you're looking at Basial Tootin, he's flashed. 0:26:53.940 --> 0:26:56.710 If you're looking at the pass rush, they've been consistently 0:26:56.750 --> 0:26:59.260 good this year. Like there's so many things about this 0:26:59.300 --> 0:27:03.290 Jags team individually that we have liked. And yet somehow 0:27:03.630 --> 0:27:06.770 we haven't talked about Travis Hunter basically at all this season. 0:27:07.550 --> 0:27:09.860 Is the trade still worth it if he doesn't play 0:27:09.890 --> 0:27:12.379 receiver at all? Like if this is what he is, 0:27:12.460 --> 0:27:14.860 if they get a top three corner in the league, 0:27:15.740 --> 0:27:19.810 Is that still worth the trade? Rich, a blockbuster trade. 0:27:19.869 --> 0:27:23.470 The Jacksonville Jaguars wanted to be bold, and they are 0:27:23.550 --> 0:27:26.190 in fact bold. They have agreed to terms with the 0:27:26.230 --> 0:27:30.310 Browns to trade from number five to number two with 0:27:30.350 --> 0:27:35.209 the Browns receiving a second rounder, number 36 overall, 126 0:27:35.210 --> 0:27:38.330 overall this year, and next year's first round pick. 0:27:38.390 --> 0:27:40.690 If you're looking at it for just pick value, it's 0:27:40.780 --> 0:27:43.860 hard to say that that would be however I think 0:27:43.880 --> 0:27:46.220 that when you're evaluating trades you have to have the 0:27:46.260 --> 0:27:49.320 context of who you're trading for and just everything that 0:27:49.359 --> 0:27:52.700 surrounds that team and for Travis Hunter specifically I loved 0:27:52.770 --> 0:27:54.730 the move on draft day I love that they went 0:27:55.090 --> 0:27:56.830 they got aggressive I love that they went and got 0:27:56.869 --> 0:27:59.629 the unicorn player in this class The reason why I 0:27:59.670 --> 0:28:01.540 loved it is not because I just thought that he 0:28:01.560 --> 0:28:03.159 could be a good corner, which by the way, I 0:28:03.200 --> 0:28:05.139 thought that he should be primarily a corner and then 0:28:05.180 --> 0:28:07.420 Moonlight as a wide receiver, not the other way around. 0:28:07.460 --> 0:28:09.480 So I love the way that they're deploying him so far. 0:28:09.880 --> 0:28:12.320 If he does not play wide receiver at all, it's 0:28:12.359 --> 0:28:15.060 hard to say that they would take it back because 0:28:15.100 --> 0:28:18.679 of the team building that they have done around everything since, 0:28:19.020 --> 0:28:20.719 because the Jags have obviously become one of the best 0:28:20.770 --> 0:28:22.490 teams in the NFL. And so you can kind of 0:28:22.530 --> 0:28:24.010 look at it and say like, all right, did we 0:28:24.050 --> 0:28:25.970 pay Maybe a little bit more than you would think 0:28:25.990 --> 0:28:28.750 for a shutdown corner. Sure, but it made our team better. 0:28:28.810 --> 0:28:30.790 And I think that's part of the conversation as well. 0:28:31.150 --> 0:28:33.359 But I'm going to cheat a little bit here in 0:28:33.380 --> 0:28:36.639 my answer because they are playing him a little bit 0:28:36.660 --> 0:28:39.060 at wide receiver. And not only does he look confident 0:28:39.080 --> 0:28:41.820 at corner, he looks confident at wide receiver in those 0:28:41.900 --> 0:28:44.140 opportunities where they're trying to give him the ball quick 0:28:44.640 --> 0:28:47.500 and get those yards after catch. So last year when 0:28:47.540 --> 0:28:49.640 I saw the usage from him and obviously the injury 0:28:49.680 --> 0:28:53.020 didn't help, I was like, man, Did they pay too 0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:55.940 much for how they wanted to use him? This year, 0:28:56.820 --> 0:28:59.480 I'm having to hold myself back from how excited I 0:28:59.620 --> 0:29:02.420 am about the future of Travis Hunter because the confidence 0:29:02.460 --> 0:29:04.620 level that he is playing with at corner right now 0:29:04.760 --> 0:29:07.150 is a leap from what it was the previous season. 0:29:07.230 --> 0:29:08.590 I know he put on some good weight, put on 0:29:08.630 --> 0:29:11.250 some good muscle. He looks even more explosive despite being 0:29:11.290 --> 0:29:13.640 at a higher weight. They're getting him involved in the 0:29:13.680 --> 0:29:16.240 passing game despite the fact that they don't have to 0:29:16.540 --> 0:29:19.540 because they have tight ends they like. They have Parker Washington. 0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:23.360 They have Jacoby Myers. And so I'll say that when 0:29:23.400 --> 0:29:27.020 you look at things just in a vacuum, that's a 0:29:27.180 --> 0:29:31.050 lot of draft capital value to give up for even 0:29:31.110 --> 0:29:33.130 just one of the best corners. It's a lot to 0:29:33.170 --> 0:29:35.670 give up for just a corner. But when you bring 0:29:35.730 --> 0:29:37.850 in full context of who it was and that it 0:29:37.890 --> 0:29:40.920 was Travis Hunter and that he can all have that 0:29:40.960 --> 0:29:42.620 potential to play on the other side of the ball 0:29:42.880 --> 0:29:44.790 certainly for where we are right now and how he 0:29:44.850 --> 0:29:47.030 looks yeah I tell you that the trade was worth 0:29:47.090 --> 0:29:50.210 it the arrow is only looking very very high up 0:29:50.470 --> 0:29:53.620 for Hunter and how they're using him Travis Hunter, his 0:29:53.740 --> 0:29:58.040 first career interception, and boy, did he pick a perfect 0:29:58.100 --> 0:29:59.020 moment for it. 0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:02.220 One last stat here for you. So the Jacksonville Jaguars 0:30:02.260 --> 0:30:06.620 have not allowed a single opposing player to run for 0:30:06.640 --> 0:30:09.340 40-plus yards in a game against them so far this year. 0:30:09.700 --> 0:30:11.760 You might think that's a death sentence for the Texans, 0:30:11.780 --> 0:30:15.480 but joke's on you. The leading Texans rusher averages 30 0:30:15.480 --> 0:30:18.970 yards a game. You can't kill us, Trevor. We're already dead. 0:30:20.090 --> 0:30:28.110 On the ground. Speaking of bad Texans run games, by 0:30:28.130 --> 0:30:32.230 the way, last season, to start the 2025 season, the 0:30:32.290 --> 0:30:36.850 Rams won, essentially, because of a Nate Landman punch-out on 0:30:36.890 --> 0:30:41.460 Daria Ogunbowale. And Landman has kind of become known for this. 0:30:41.520 --> 0:30:45.000 He is a master of the peanut punch. But he's 0:30:45.020 --> 0:30:46.580 not the only one. There's a lot of players around 0:30:46.600 --> 0:30:50.560 the league that have gotten really, really good at forcing fumbles. 0:30:51.360 --> 0:30:54.540 To the point where it is a noticeable uptick in 0:30:54.580 --> 0:30:57.500 terms of how many fumbles there are league-wide. I don't 0:30:57.520 --> 0:31:00.180 want to say it's that ball security is at its worst. 0:31:00.360 --> 0:31:03.980 I just think defenders have gotten a lot better at 0:31:04.040 --> 0:31:06.040 doing these hyper-targeted punches. 0:31:06.040 --> 0:31:09.940 52 fumbles. Most since week 1 of 2022 when there 0:31:10.000 --> 0:31:11.760 was 56. And 26 fumbles lost the most since week 0:31:11.760 --> 0:31:13.400 12 of 2020 when there was 28. 0:31:13.400 --> 0:31:13.770 That is. 0:31:20.490 --> 0:31:23.290 Crazy and you're right i think that you know every 0:31:23.330 --> 0:31:25.130 single time that we see it on a broadcast you 0:31:25.150 --> 0:31:26.090 know everybody's always. 0:31:25.930 --> 0:31:27.570 Like the peanut punch. 0:31:28.430 --> 0:31:31.610 Man it really does feel that way it's not like 0:31:31.630 --> 0:31:35.670 this cliche it's it's taught now like this is clearly 0:31:35.710 --> 0:31:39.430 a technique thing and we've seen i mean the mark 0:31:39.530 --> 0:31:41.950 andrews fumble is a great example where he's coming in 0:31:41.970 --> 0:31:45.440 to make the tackle could tell he's not abandoning his 0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:48.219 form now sometimes the guys come in and they do 0:31:48.280 --> 0:31:50.260 totally abandon their form and they're just trying to punch 0:31:50.280 --> 0:31:52.260 the ball out but like that was an example of 0:31:52.660 --> 0:31:55.080 of what you're talking about where I think that it's 0:31:55.160 --> 0:31:59.770 being taught more as an emphasis now of hey when 0:31:59.810 --> 0:32:02.030 you come in to wrap up for a tackle you 0:32:02.070 --> 0:32:05.980 know make sure that you are get into the hip 0:32:06.060 --> 0:32:07.740 in the center of gravity of the player where you 0:32:07.760 --> 0:32:09.719 could bring them down. But as you are, and as 0:32:09.760 --> 0:32:14.280 you are wrapping, get the fist around. Try to knock 0:32:14.360 --> 0:32:16.820 the ball out. And so it's like, yes, we want 0:32:16.840 --> 0:32:18.300 you to be fundamentally sound. We want you to make 0:32:18.320 --> 0:32:22.150 the tackle. But they're clearly teaching this in how they 0:32:22.350 --> 0:32:24.970 are wrapping up ball carriers as well. I think you're 0:32:24.990 --> 0:32:28.870 also seeing a ton of, hey, my teammates already kind 0:32:28.890 --> 0:32:31.290 of starting to bring this player down. I'm just going 0:32:31.310 --> 0:32:34.620 to go for the ball here. So I just, it's 0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:36.800 a huge emphasis. And I think the reason why is 0:32:36.860 --> 0:32:40.370 because in an age where offenses, it feels like can 0:32:40.380 --> 0:32:43.570 get explosives all over the place. When you get those 0:32:43.650 --> 0:32:47.630 extra possessions, they can mean everything. And that's why coaches 0:32:47.930 --> 0:32:51.330 preach against forcing turnovers and limiting turnovers, depending on which 0:32:51.370 --> 0:32:52.330 side of the ball that you're on. 0:32:52.370 --> 0:32:53.230 But it very. 0:32:53.050 --> 0:32:56.720 Clearly teams are more into this than they've ever been, 0:32:56.760 --> 0:32:58.520 because this is a league trend that is only going 0:32:58.580 --> 0:33:00.140 up with defenses, forcing these fumbles. 0:33:00.620 --> 0:33:00.800 Yeah. 0:33:00.820 --> 0:33:03.020 I mean, Fred Warner has three so far this year. 0:33:03.060 --> 0:33:06.540 He's only, played in five games, right? Three forced fumbles 0:33:06.580 --> 0:33:08.840 in five games is nuts. And there was actually a 0:33:09.980 --> 0:33:13.440 moment in the Australia game where I think he was 0:33:13.460 --> 0:33:15.640 looking at Dre Greenlaw and talking to him. And he said, hey, 0:33:16.060 --> 0:33:19.490 hold him up. I can get one for us here. Like, 0:33:19.530 --> 0:33:22.090 don't immediately bring him down. Hold him up. And he did. 0:33:22.130 --> 0:33:24.030 And then Fred came in and punched out. Like, he 0:33:24.050 --> 0:33:28.170 called his own shot. And so defenders are really approaching 0:33:28.210 --> 0:33:31.790 forced fumbles as a team effort, right? Like, keep him up. 0:33:33.040 --> 0:33:35.160 so that we have an opportunity to come in here 0:33:35.200 --> 0:33:38.160 and punch it out. And it has such a profound 0:33:38.380 --> 0:33:42.500 impact on the opposing defense. If you're looking at the 0:33:42.580 --> 0:33:47.240 Chargers defense as an example, their EPA per play isn't horrible. 0:33:47.260 --> 0:33:52.160 Their down-to-down efficiency isn't horrible, but they've allowed, I guess, 0:33:52.320 --> 0:33:54.700 technically a whole lot of points this year because they 0:33:54.740 --> 0:33:59.470 have 19 drives. that have started in their own territory 0:33:59.570 --> 0:34:02.450 because of the Chargers offense, turning it over a lot 0:34:02.470 --> 0:34:03.870 of those being fumbles. 0:34:04.250 --> 0:34:04.450 Yeah. 0:34:04.750 --> 0:34:04.930 Right. 0:34:04.950 --> 0:34:06.610 Like they, they lost a couple of weeks ago because 0:34:06.630 --> 0:34:08.220 of that. Cause of Amari and Hampton had it punched 0:34:08.280 --> 0:34:13.080 out late. So it, it really helps your offense be better. 0:34:13.239 --> 0:34:15.520 If you can give them that kind of field position 0:34:15.640 --> 0:34:18.480 by just punching it out. And because it's not a 0:34:18.620 --> 0:34:21.130 round ball, it can bounce all over the place and 0:34:21.150 --> 0:34:23.480 you guys have a shot to recover it. It, If 0:34:23.540 --> 0:34:25.680 you can do that once or twice in a game, 0:34:25.719 --> 0:34:28.160 you recover one of them, you set yourself up for 0:34:28.200 --> 0:34:33.270 an easy score, that flips the entire game. It really does. 0:34:33.290 --> 0:34:36.210 It makes any game winnable by pretty much any team 0:34:36.750 --> 0:34:38.830 if you can win that turnover battle. It's not a 0:34:38.950 --> 0:34:41.169 new thing, but it certainly feels like teams are doing 0:34:41.210 --> 0:34:41.969 it a lot more now. 0:34:42.530 --> 0:34:45.129 Back to the ground, back to Cook. And this time, 0:34:45.150 --> 0:34:49.029 ball comes out! His second fumble of the night! Landman 0:34:49.110 --> 0:34:52.680 forced it, and it's another fumble for James Cook. 0:34:53.680 --> 0:34:55.200 All right, last segment of the show. We got to 0:34:55.219 --> 0:34:56.320 get the people involved, Brett. 0:34:56.460 --> 0:35:00.469 Going to the fan Q & A section here. First 0:35:00.510 --> 0:35:05.070 question from Ward MVP Season. What's going on with the 0:35:05.110 --> 0:35:07.370 Vikings offense? Is it on Kyler? 0:35:07.770 --> 0:35:08.669 Is it KOC? 0:35:09.090 --> 0:35:12.390 So, yeah, Vikings sitting here at 5-0. I don't want 0:35:12.430 --> 0:35:14.790 to complain about being 5-0, but hey, I think that 0:35:14.830 --> 0:35:17.490 people do look at the offense and go, man, this feels... 0:35:17.700 --> 0:35:20.370 unstable it just doesn't feel as easy and if brian 0:35:20.390 --> 0:35:23.930 flores wasn't on you know level 15 out of 10 0:35:23.930 --> 0:35:25.870 maybe the record does look different for the vikings so 0:35:25.910 --> 0:35:28.110 your thoughts on the vikings offense right now. 0:35:28.590 --> 0:35:31.270 I mean the easy answer is it's just not an 0:35:31.330 --> 0:35:35.690 explosive offense right they have an 11.1 explosive play rate 0:35:35.770 --> 0:35:39.330 on offense that's passing and running that's bottom 10 in 0:35:39.370 --> 0:35:43.589 the nfl just rushing in terms of explosive designed run 0:35:43.650 --> 0:35:48.529 rate only 7.1 that's ninth lowest in the nfl even 0:35:48.570 --> 0:35:51.230 though their average yards before contact per attempt is actually 0:35:51.450 --> 0:35:55.149 pretty good, 10th most at 1.5. So the offensive line 0:35:55.210 --> 0:35:57.069 has done a good job in terms of creating room 0:35:57.090 --> 0:35:58.549 for the running backs. The running backs just aren't really 0:35:58.590 --> 0:36:01.920 doing anything with that room. And then if you're looking 0:36:01.960 --> 0:36:08.280 at Kyler specifically, fairly average deep pass rate at 9.9%, 0:36:08.280 --> 0:36:11.680 but a lot of explosives in today's NFL are created 0:36:11.719 --> 0:36:12.980 over the middle of the field. I know we're going 0:36:13.000 --> 0:36:14.780 to keep talking about it and beating that dead horse, 0:36:14.820 --> 0:36:19.070 but it's true. And if you're looking at intermediate in breakers, 0:36:19.110 --> 0:36:21.279 he only targets them 10% of the time. That's the 0:36:21.410 --> 0:36:24.379 lowest rate in the entire league. And that's just where 0:36:24.540 --> 0:36:28.580 all of these really explosive offenses get these chunks. You 0:36:28.600 --> 0:36:30.080 throw an in breaker and then you get a catch 0:36:30.120 --> 0:36:32.580 and run, or you're just making life hell for these 0:36:33.000 --> 0:36:36.390 hook droppers and you're getting 15, 20 yards at a time. 0:36:37.410 --> 0:36:38.950 They just don't do that. So if you don't have 0:36:38.969 --> 0:36:41.569 an explosive run game outside of, you know, the odd 0:36:41.630 --> 0:36:43.750 Kyler scramble here and there, and you don't have an 0:36:43.770 --> 0:36:47.330 explosive passing game, because the only real time you're going 0:36:47.370 --> 0:36:49.779 down the field, it's like a one-on-one down the boundary, 0:36:50.060 --> 0:36:53.419 which is low percentage throw to begin with, then you 0:36:53.460 --> 0:36:55.680 kind of have to play offense the hard way and 0:36:55.719 --> 0:36:59.560 put together 10, 11 play drives. they're just not really 0:36:59.600 --> 0:37:02.300 good enough to do that without stalling out. It's a 0:37:02.320 --> 0:37:05.660 big reason why Will Riker, you know, kind of tongue 0:37:05.700 --> 0:37:09.430 in cheek, but really was getting like Vikings MVP chance 0:37:09.969 --> 0:37:11.930 because they keep getting to the red zone or just 0:37:11.969 --> 0:37:14.130 outside the red zone and stalling out. And then he 0:37:14.170 --> 0:37:16.310 has to come in and bang a field goal through. 0:37:16.330 --> 0:37:18.009 I think he got like five in one game the 0:37:18.050 --> 0:37:22.009 other week. So it's just not a sustainable offense, you know, 0:37:22.050 --> 0:37:26.360 where you don't have explosives to get those chunks for you. 0:37:27.180 --> 0:37:30.360 It's so much harder to put five good plays on 0:37:30.420 --> 0:37:32.839 tape in a row compared to just one to get 0:37:32.880 --> 0:37:35.000 the same amount of yardage. I would agree with you. 0:37:35.040 --> 0:37:37.609 I think that the lack of explosiveness in the run 0:37:37.640 --> 0:37:41.010 game is really affecting what they can do overall. Because 0:37:41.350 --> 0:37:43.989 as much as, yes, you don't have to be a 0:37:44.030 --> 0:37:47.230 successful run team to be effective at play action or 0:37:47.290 --> 0:37:49.170 motion and things like that. You could still do those 0:37:49.210 --> 0:37:51.470 things even if you don't have a great run game. 0:37:52.170 --> 0:37:55.049 it certainly helps when you do, and you just get 0:37:55.150 --> 0:37:58.870 more bite from linebackers, you get more attention from safeties, 0:37:59.130 --> 0:38:01.430 the middle of the field opens up more, whether it's 0:38:01.469 --> 0:38:04.610 a bootleg or just a straight drop play action, whatever 0:38:04.650 --> 0:38:06.750 it is, that middle of the field opens up a 0:38:06.810 --> 0:38:09.259 lot more, and those aim-breaking routes open up, I think, 0:38:09.300 --> 0:38:11.759 a lot more when you do have a successful run game. 0:38:11.780 --> 0:38:14.540 And of course, we've said this before, Kyler's not the 0:38:14.580 --> 0:38:16.660 tallest quarterback in the league, and so you kind of 0:38:16.700 --> 0:38:18.759 have to manipulate the offensive line a little bit at 0:38:18.800 --> 0:38:21.420 times in order for him to to want to attack 0:38:21.540 --> 0:38:23.580 over the middle of the field with regularity. And so 0:38:23.980 --> 0:38:27.359 I think the domino effect really just starts with they 0:38:27.400 --> 0:38:29.799 don't have that explosiveness in the run game. And if 0:38:29.840 --> 0:38:31.259 they had that a little bit more, I think that 0:38:31.300 --> 0:38:33.839 things would look a little bit easier for them. And 0:38:34.180 --> 0:38:37.660 to me, that's what's quote unquote wrong with the Vikings offense. 0:38:37.700 --> 0:38:39.880 I don't know how much more explosive they're going to 0:38:39.920 --> 0:38:42.460 get in the ground game. But again, you know, if 0:38:42.500 --> 0:38:44.620 the defense is playing the way that they are, I 0:38:44.660 --> 0:38:47.200 think even the offense in its current form, especially from 0:38:47.219 --> 0:38:48.739 what we saw last week, which was a really nice 0:38:48.760 --> 0:38:50.799 game from Kyler, is going to be enough for this 0:38:50.840 --> 0:38:53.299 team to make the postseason and feel pretty good about 0:38:53.340 --> 0:38:55.680 themselves when they get there. Second question that we have 0:38:55.980 --> 0:38:58.160 here for the Fan Q & A, it's from NFLDuos 0:38:58.219 --> 0:39:01.469 on Twitter. It said, is a healthy Panthers offense top 0:39:01.910 --> 0:39:04.710 five in the NFL? So we could just look at 0:39:04.989 --> 0:39:08.690 sort of what they are as an offense while playing 0:39:08.730 --> 0:39:11.069 through some of these injuries. EPA per play, they have 0:39:11.090 --> 0:39:13.469 the eighth most injuries. EPA per play in the NFL, 0:39:13.530 --> 0:39:15.620 EPA per dropbacks, the fifth most, so there we go, 0:39:15.660 --> 0:39:22.120 cracking the top five. Designed run EPA, 19th most, so 0:39:22.200 --> 0:39:25.109 have struggled on the ground, but scoring drive percentage, they 0:39:25.150 --> 0:39:28.310 have the fifth highest in the NFL. So in terms 0:39:28.469 --> 0:39:31.759 of the overall question, is a healthy Panthers offense top 0:39:31.780 --> 0:39:34.640 five in the NFL? Well, they're the fifth highest in 0:39:34.700 --> 0:39:37.590 scoring percentage, even with what they have been through. So 0:39:38.030 --> 0:39:40.730 does that make the answer yes? Brett, what do you 0:39:40.750 --> 0:39:41.330 think about this? 0:39:41.550 --> 0:39:44.009 I mean, look no further than explosive play rate. Just 0:39:44.030 --> 0:39:46.069 talk about it with Minnesota. They don't get a lot 0:39:46.090 --> 0:39:49.770 of explosives. Carolina has the fourth highest explosive play rate 0:39:49.800 --> 0:39:54.339 in the NFL, 15.7%. It's a huge, huge jump. And 0:39:54.380 --> 0:39:56.440 they get it both on the ground and through the air. 0:39:56.780 --> 0:39:59.660 It's a balanced offense, even though they're not fully healthy. 0:40:00.300 --> 0:40:03.230 I think McMillan playing more in the slot has been 0:40:03.489 --> 0:40:07.650 awesome for them because it lets him find space so 0:40:07.690 --> 0:40:10.610 much easier when he has these two-way goes from the slot. 0:40:10.710 --> 0:40:12.930 And that really, to me, was his superpower when he 0:40:12.950 --> 0:40:14.850 was coming out of college, was just being a really 0:40:15.010 --> 0:40:18.930 smart receiver, very silky smooth, find space, get yards after catch. 0:40:19.550 --> 0:40:23.450 I know he was profiled as this Mike Evans 2.0. 0:40:23.450 --> 0:40:26.250 And while, yeah, he's big, to me, he was really 0:40:26.310 --> 0:40:28.670 more like an Eric Decker type than he was. And 0:40:28.690 --> 0:40:30.069 I mean that as a compliment, by the way. Prime 0:40:30.090 --> 0:40:32.730 Eric Decker was sick. But that, to me, was his 0:40:32.790 --> 0:40:35.210 best usage of as a big slot. Well, they started 0:40:35.250 --> 0:40:38.340 doing that this year. got great returns out of it 0:40:38.360 --> 0:40:41.080 a couple weeks ago before their bye week. Ideally, they're 0:40:41.120 --> 0:40:44.680 healthier now coming off that bye going into week six. 0:40:45.340 --> 0:40:48.690 This is as potent an offense I can remember in 0:40:48.750 --> 0:40:52.770 Carolina since, God, do I want to invoke 2015 here? 0:40:53.230 --> 0:40:55.310 Is this the best Panthers offense since then? I think 0:40:55.330 --> 0:40:57.200 it might be. Yeah, it kind of feels like it. 0:40:57.360 --> 0:40:59.500 So let's put each other on the spot then, okay? 0:41:00.219 --> 0:41:02.440 I'm going to name a team, and you tell me 0:41:02.480 --> 0:41:04.280 if you would have that offense. 0:41:05.550 --> 0:41:06.470 above. 0:41:06.110 --> 0:41:08.380 Carolina, if you would pick that offense over the Carolina Panthers. 0:41:08.640 --> 0:41:09.200 Buffalo Bills. 0:41:09.540 --> 0:41:12.399 They have the most points per game so far this year, 32.8. 0:41:12.400 --> 0:41:16.879 I'll say yes. The fumbles concern me, but I'll say yes. 0:41:18.140 --> 0:41:21.420 What about the Niners? Even in their banged up state, 0:41:21.540 --> 0:41:24.240 I would say yes, but boy, it's close. It's really close. 0:41:24.480 --> 0:41:28.810 I agree. I agree. Lions. Yeah, because somehow they're just 0:41:28.870 --> 0:41:32.989 good at everything, even with their own personnel issues. Even 0:41:33.050 --> 0:41:37.890 by recent history lion standards, they're amazing, so sure, yeah. 0:41:38.150 --> 0:41:40.250 I agree, I agree. So we're at three now. 0:41:41.360 --> 0:41:43.550 This is now where I certainly think that Carolina's in 0:41:43.570 --> 0:41:46.080 the conversation. Would you take Carolina or would you take 0:41:46.120 --> 0:41:47.839 Kansas City? Ooh. 0:41:48.719 --> 0:41:51.660 That's close. I think I would take, it's very close. 0:41:51.680 --> 0:41:52.960 I think I would take Carolina. I feel like they're 0:41:52.980 --> 0:41:56.480 a little bit more versatile. It does feel like Kansas 0:41:56.500 --> 0:42:00.719 City is kind of the Kenneth Walker show. Also, they're 0:42:00.760 --> 0:42:03.340 banged up and are still that good. Give me Carolina, 0:42:03.380 --> 0:42:04.040 but that is close. 0:42:04.500 --> 0:42:06.040 I think that that one's close, but I think you 0:42:06.060 --> 0:42:08.100 could put Carolina in there above the Chiefs. 0:42:08.620 --> 0:42:10.960 What about the Cowboys? Shake the Cowboys or the Panthers? 0:42:12.219 --> 0:42:14.040 I think the Cowboys at their best, I would take 0:42:14.100 --> 0:42:16.239 over the Panthers, but the problem is they're five weeks 0:42:16.300 --> 0:42:19.140 into the season. How many times have they played their best? 0:42:20.239 --> 0:42:25.070 Not enough. Carolina's been more consistent. Carolina's been more consistent. Yeah, 0:42:25.190 --> 0:42:27.550 give me that. Give me the higher baseline compared to 0:42:27.590 --> 0:42:29.219 the higher ceiling. Okay, all right. 0:42:29.300 --> 0:42:33.460 And then, I'll just go Bengals. Would you go Bengals 0:42:33.500 --> 0:42:34.980 over the Panthers, or would you take the Panthers. 0:42:34.780 --> 0:42:38.640 Over the Bengals? I would go Panthers over Bengals. The 0:42:38.700 --> 0:42:41.040 one that I would be interested in your answer on 0:42:41.100 --> 0:42:42.420 is Chicago. 0:42:43.360 --> 0:42:46.370 Yeah. When they're healthy. Yeah, there were three other teams 0:42:46.450 --> 0:42:48.450 I was going to bring up. The Seahawks, the Ravens, 0:42:48.650 --> 0:42:52.670 and then the Bears. Okay. When the Bears are healthy, 0:42:52.890 --> 0:42:57.350 I'd take the Bears over the Panthers. I think that 0:42:57.510 --> 0:43:00.370 they are absolutely in that top five category. I would 0:43:00.410 --> 0:43:05.560 say the Bills, the Lions, the 49ers, and the Bears. 0:43:06.260 --> 0:43:08.759 I would all take over the Panthers. But then I 0:43:09.600 --> 0:43:12.380 would have Carolina in that next tier, and you could 0:43:12.400 --> 0:43:14.379 have an argument for them being at five or just 0:43:14.420 --> 0:43:17.779 below five with the Chiefs, the Ravens, the Cowboys, and 0:43:17.800 --> 0:43:20.500 the Seahawks. I think those are the teams that are 0:43:20.600 --> 0:43:21.339 in that next year. 0:43:22.080 --> 0:43:24.560 And what's interesting is Declan Doyle is so good at 0:43:24.600 --> 0:43:26.919 his job that whether Lamar is out there or not, 0:43:26.980 --> 0:43:31.270 the Ravens have the highest success rate out of any offense. 0:43:31.290 --> 0:43:33.670 Yeah, so it's hard to deny that too. But all 0:43:33.690 --> 0:43:36.069 of that, I think, whether you have the Panthers right 0:43:36.090 --> 0:43:38.330 there at five or within the top five, I think 0:43:38.350 --> 0:43:41.660 the question is, And the conversation is a good one 0:43:41.680 --> 0:43:44.540 to have to respect what Carolina is putting out there. 0:43:44.580 --> 0:43:46.839 This isn't just like kind of a fun story. This 0:43:46.860 --> 0:43:49.259 has been an awesome offense to watch and one of 0:43:49.280 --> 0:43:50.220 the best in the NFL. 0:43:55.260 --> 0:43:58.140 Game picks for week six. Let's go, baby. 0:43:58.160 --> 0:43:59.730 If you're new around here, what we do is we 0:43:59.770 --> 0:44:02.670 take 10 games we have in the upcoming NFL slate. 0:44:02.969 --> 0:44:04.670 And not only do we pick the winner, but we 0:44:04.750 --> 0:44:08.719 also rank them in terms of confidence. So If you 0:44:08.739 --> 0:44:11.080 think that this team is absolutely going to win this game, 0:44:11.280 --> 0:44:12.940 you'll put it at the 10 confidence spot. And if 0:44:12.960 --> 0:44:15.230 you're right, you get 10 points. Then 9, you get 0:44:15.230 --> 0:44:16.669 9 points. 8, you get 8 points. 0:44:16.770 --> 0:44:18.870 So on and so forth. It's a fun game. 0:44:19.110 --> 0:44:21.290 We've been keeping track all season long, along with you 0:44:21.330 --> 0:44:23.009 guys out there, which we'll get to some of the 0:44:23.050 --> 0:44:26.430 shout-outs for how you guys did last week. Brett, really quickly, 0:44:26.489 --> 0:44:28.129 I don't want to reveal our points yet because we'll 0:44:28.150 --> 0:44:30.440 do that in a second before we tee up these games, but. 0:44:30.680 --> 0:44:31.830 We implemented a. 0:44:32.920 --> 0:44:37.820 You lose 10 points if your 10 confidence game does 0:44:37.900 --> 0:44:42.050 not hit. And we implemented that, I will add, because 0:44:42.290 --> 0:44:45.350 you missed it two weeks in a row before this. 0:44:45.630 --> 0:44:48.330 And the people were like, Brett's got to pay. We 0:44:48.350 --> 0:44:51.279 need punishment. So we're like, OK, OK, minus 10 if 0:44:51.320 --> 0:44:53.600 you miss your top 10 confidence game. 0:44:54.200 --> 0:44:55.120 And guess what happened? 0:44:56.260 --> 0:44:59.200 I missed mine and you didn't miss yours. So I 0:44:59.480 --> 0:45:01.400 have no idea what my final score is, but I 0:45:01.440 --> 0:45:03.899 know that it's 10 points less than I would have. 0:45:03.840 --> 0:45:05.839 If we were doing this a week prior. I mean, 0:45:05.860 --> 0:45:10.500 I don't feel great about it because the Jacksonville technically 0:45:10.800 --> 0:45:15.300 win was my 10 spot game, which like, was it really? 0:45:16.160 --> 0:45:19.279 So close. Nick Sirianni should stay in Philly forever, in 0:45:19.320 --> 0:45:22.140 my opinion. Thank you for doing me a solid, Nick. 0:45:22.200 --> 0:45:24.620 I appreciate you. My question for you, Trev, because I 0:45:24.660 --> 0:45:26.900 have your point total in front of me. Keep in mind, 0:45:26.940 --> 0:45:29.580 you came into the week with a season total of 148, 0:45:29.580 --> 0:45:31.719 so you're up one point on me. 0:45:32.280 --> 0:45:32.500 Yeah. 0:45:33.719 --> 0:45:35.500 Do you think you hit double digits? 0:45:40.780 --> 0:45:41.040 No. 0:45:42.640 --> 0:45:47.430 I don't. Good instinct. You got eight points. Oh, my gosh. 0:45:47.530 --> 0:45:51.950 That's it? You got eight, buddy. Dude, you know what? 0:45:52.469 --> 0:45:55.400 You know what? I told our producers before we started recording, 0:45:55.820 --> 0:46:00.680 if my number doesn't start with a minus sign, you know, 0:46:00.960 --> 0:46:04.100 as long as it's not negative overall points, as long 0:46:04.140 --> 0:46:07.050 as I get some positive points this week, I'm okay 0:46:07.090 --> 0:46:07.390 with that. 0:46:07.410 --> 0:46:13.210 But eight. So you got your three points. You got 0:46:13.250 --> 0:46:17.210 your nine spot game correct, which was Jacksonville at nine. 0:46:17.410 --> 0:46:21.660 And you got you got Baltimore over Atlanta. So you 0:46:21.680 --> 0:46:23.700 got eight points for that. But you got minus 10 0:46:23.700 --> 0:46:25.739 from your 10 spot game. And then the only other 0:46:25.820 --> 0:46:29.920 game that you got correct was Pittsburgh over Indy at 0:46:29.960 --> 0:46:33.180 your one spot, which ultimately ended up at eight points. 0:46:34.020 --> 0:46:38.050 As bad as that is, I think I did worse. 0:46:38.719 --> 0:46:40.440 Did I do worse? Oh, no. I'm pretty sure I did. 0:46:40.700 --> 0:46:44.220 No, because you didn't get minus 10. Now, you didn't 0:46:44.260 --> 0:46:46.250 have a good week, my friend. I won't lie to 0:46:46.270 --> 0:46:49.010 you and tell you that. But you got 22 points. 0:46:49.430 --> 0:46:50.930 You got 22 points this week. 0:46:51.170 --> 0:46:51.590 Okay. 0:46:52.510 --> 0:46:55.819 The non-minus 10 in your equation really did a lot 0:46:55.840 --> 0:46:58.339 of heavy lifting here. But if I was up one 0:46:58.620 --> 0:47:02.660 last week... that means that you are now up 13 0:47:02.660 --> 0:47:05.780 and that's doable. I was very scared as those games 0:47:05.820 --> 0:47:08.310 were coming to final on Sunday that you were going 0:47:08.330 --> 0:47:10.750 to be up 50 points or something and I was 0:47:10.770 --> 0:47:12.730 going to have no prayer of catching you But I 0:47:12.770 --> 0:47:14.130 can catch it for 13 points. 0:47:14.530 --> 0:47:16.420 I can do that. We're still alive in this one. 0:47:16.570 --> 0:47:17.180 The scores? 0:47:17.860 --> 0:47:19.920 Much lower this week than they were last week. Not 0:47:19.960 --> 0:47:22.640 just from us, but also from the people as well. 0:47:22.660 --> 0:47:24.920 For the final standings, let's shout out some people who 0:47:25.239 --> 0:47:28.810 commented their game picks. And we keep score. And we'll 0:47:28.850 --> 0:47:31.250 shout out the best ones every single week. But breathe 0:47:31.290 --> 0:47:33.870 times two. A nice lesson for us after we had 0:47:33.890 --> 0:47:37.009 a bad week of picking. 37 total points as the 0:47:37.110 --> 0:47:42.620 top scorer. Adam got 35. Bobby and PB9 both tied 0:47:42.739 --> 0:47:43.719 at 32. 0:47:43.719 --> 0:47:45.500 Those were the leaders for last week. 0:47:45.920 --> 0:47:49.580 I will say that the minus 10 rule absolutely drew 0:47:49.620 --> 0:47:52.940 blood this week everywhere where there were game picks. As 0:47:52.940 --> 0:47:55.920 79 of the 102 people who submitted their picks.... 0:47:59.130 --> 0:48:01.910 Put a team at number 10 that lost. 0:48:02.250 --> 0:48:07.400 And in fact, and in fact, the biggest trap game 0:48:07.440 --> 0:48:10.300 was the one I had is my 10. The Bucks 0:48:10.400 --> 0:48:16.810 and the Cowboys, 98 out of 102 entries, Brett, picked 0:48:17.250 --> 0:48:18.930 the Dallas Cowboys to win that game. 0:48:19.270 --> 0:48:21.810 Only four people picked the Buccaneers to win. 0:48:23.200 --> 0:48:26.600 And breathe times two, the person who had the highest 0:48:26.860 --> 0:48:30.540 score this week, they ranked them at the nine spot 0:48:30.640 --> 0:48:31.520 for confidence. 0:48:32.620 --> 0:48:33.170 Are you kidding me? 0:48:33.180 --> 0:48:34.990 Not only did they get the Bucs to win, this 0:48:35.070 --> 0:48:39.690 is somebody who deeply hates the Dallas Cowboys, and I 0:48:39.790 --> 0:48:44.570 respect it for how many points they got for picking 0:48:45.170 --> 0:48:47.850 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this game. So, yes, that's 0:48:48.230 --> 0:48:50.190 the table that is set from the people here from 0:48:50.230 --> 0:48:50.649 last week. 0:48:51.330 --> 0:48:54.070 But they didn't hate the Cowboys enough to put the 0:48:54.110 --> 0:48:56.580 Bucs at the 10 spot. That's true. They didn't trust 0:48:56.600 --> 0:49:01.620 them entirely. But my God, well done. 37 points. Shall 0:49:01.660 --> 0:49:03.660 we get into these, by the way? Let's do it. 0:49:03.700 --> 0:49:04.360 Let's dig into it. 0:49:04.380 --> 0:49:06.860 The first game that we have on the list is 0:49:06.960 --> 0:49:12.730 Houston versus Jacksonville. Divisional matchup here and one that, boy, 0:49:12.770 --> 0:49:16.370 the Houston Texans very badly need. Who are you picking 0:49:16.390 --> 0:49:17.050 in this game. 0:49:16.870 --> 0:49:20.930 And where is it in the confidence rankings? This... might 0:49:21.050 --> 0:49:23.180 be the homer in me, but I am taking Houston 0:49:23.260 --> 0:49:25.620 in this game, and I do have a legitimate reason 0:49:25.760 --> 0:49:27.700 for it. It's not just because they traded for Marvin 0:49:27.719 --> 0:49:29.799 Harrison Jr. That, to me, isn't the biggest factor here. 0:49:30.320 --> 0:49:33.259 When you lose your left tackle... The week before you're 0:49:33.280 --> 0:49:35.420 supposed to play against Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter, that 0:49:35.480 --> 0:49:38.200 is a massive point of concern if I was a 0:49:38.239 --> 0:49:43.250 Jags fan. Travis Hunter has played really, really well at 0:49:43.330 --> 0:49:46.350 corner so far this year, as we've talked about throughout 0:49:46.390 --> 0:49:50.430 the season. But that being said, even if he's matched 0:49:50.489 --> 0:49:53.669 up on Nico Collins, CJ spreads the ball around so 0:49:53.730 --> 0:49:55.969 much in this offense, and there are other weapons on 0:49:56.010 --> 0:49:58.750 the field that I think, even if Hunter does have 0:49:58.770 --> 0:50:02.150 a good day against Nico, it obviously doesn't You know, 0:50:02.210 --> 0:50:05.150 injecting Marv into this team is potentially their new X receiver. 0:50:05.190 --> 0:50:07.450 We'll see. And use Nico as a moving chess piece. 0:50:07.890 --> 0:50:10.390 I think there's enough targets here where Stroud can still 0:50:10.450 --> 0:50:12.660 have a good day through the air, even if Hunter 0:50:12.700 --> 0:50:15.520 has a great day. I still don't think the Texans 0:50:15.540 --> 0:50:16.939 are going to be able to run the ball that well, 0:50:17.040 --> 0:50:21.000 but it hasn't necessarily affected Stroud that much. You know, 0:50:21.040 --> 0:50:23.080 not having a run game. He's been great this year. 0:50:23.120 --> 0:50:25.589 Trevor's been great this year. It's a battle between two 0:50:25.670 --> 0:50:28.669 really good young quarterbacks, but ultimately, the Jags not having 0:50:28.690 --> 0:50:32.120 their left tackle against arguably the best edge duo in 0:50:32.140 --> 0:50:33.899 the league, that to me is hard to overcome. So 0:50:34.200 --> 0:50:36.060 give me the Texans. I put it at the four spot. 0:50:36.600 --> 0:50:38.719 Okay, so I put the Jags at the four spot. 0:50:38.840 --> 0:50:40.770 So we're starting off at the same spot here. We're 0:50:40.790 --> 0:50:44.920 just flipping teams. I am definitely worried about the Jags' 0:50:45.040 --> 0:50:47.879 offensive line overall. Anytime you have injuries and you're going 0:50:47.920 --> 0:50:51.100 up against the best duo that we have in the NFL, 0:50:51.680 --> 0:50:54.510 not ideal. So that's advantage Houston. But I will say 0:50:54.590 --> 0:50:57.549 that Houston's lack of ability to run the football and 0:50:57.630 --> 0:51:00.589 control this game the way that they would want to 0:51:00.650 --> 0:51:03.430 and keep that Jags' offense off the field, I'm worried 0:51:03.450 --> 0:51:05.989 about that on their side of things as well. I 0:51:06.030 --> 0:51:07.620 think this is going to be a close game. I 0:51:07.640 --> 0:51:09.859 think this is a game where throw the records out 0:51:09.880 --> 0:51:11.460 of it. I don't care what the records are. 0:51:11.400 --> 0:51:12.020 Of this team anymore. 0:51:12.580 --> 0:51:14.279 To me, this one's going to be really close, but 0:51:14.540 --> 0:51:17.650 I do have more faith in this Jacksonville team just 0:51:17.670 --> 0:51:19.029 because I think it's one of the best in the 0:51:19.150 --> 0:51:20.989 NFL and where I think Houston is going to get 0:51:21.110 --> 0:51:24.529 better is a really tough opponent on that road to 0:51:24.550 --> 0:51:26.810 getting better. So give me Jacksonville here in this one. 0:51:27.150 --> 0:51:30.219 I've also got that one at the four spot. Atlanta 0:51:30.860 --> 0:51:34.960 and Chicago. So remember, Ben Johnson kind of talked about, hey, 0:51:35.880 --> 0:51:38.640 there's a chance that Caleb Williams comes back and certainly 0:51:38.660 --> 0:51:41.500 looking at the quarterback performance of the Chicago Bears last week, 0:51:41.540 --> 0:51:44.020 they would certainly be love that. They're coming up against 0:51:44.080 --> 0:51:47.800 a Falcons team that was red hot before that overtime 0:51:47.980 --> 0:51:51.080 loss to Baltimore, which thank you, Baltimore, because if I 0:51:51.100 --> 0:51:53.520 didn't get those eight points from the Ravens, I would 0:51:53.540 --> 0:51:57.180 have been sitting at zero. So I'm very thankful for 0:51:57.219 --> 0:51:58.870 that one. But what do you think about Atlanta this 0:51:58.910 --> 0:52:00.629 week going up against the Chicago Bears? 0:52:01.770 --> 0:52:05.630 There is a really interesting dichotomy between pressured Michael Penix 0:52:05.810 --> 0:52:11.839 and unpressured Michael Penix. When Penix is not pressured, He 0:52:11.880 --> 0:52:15.860 was top two in EPA per dropback. When he is pressured, 0:52:16.540 --> 0:52:20.529 he is dead last. And that is something I am 0:52:20.570 --> 0:52:24.109 worried about for the Falcons. Luckily for them, the Bears' 0:52:24.130 --> 0:52:27.630 pass rush isn't actually that great. And now that Dio's injured, 0:52:27.670 --> 0:52:30.930 it's not going to be great this week either. So 0:52:31.450 --> 0:52:33.589 if Penix is kept clean, they could have a lot 0:52:33.630 --> 0:52:36.509 of success offensively. And obviously, you know, Bijan's incredible and 0:52:36.530 --> 0:52:38.899 Drake London's incredible and all that kind of stuff. Really, 0:52:38.940 --> 0:52:40.900 the Falcons offense is going to struggle against teams that 0:52:40.920 --> 0:52:46.180 can actually just make Pennix uncomfortable. Under pressure per NextGenStats. 0:52:46.280 --> 0:52:50.920 Last week against Baltimore, 2 of 9 for like 3.6 0:52:50.920 --> 0:52:54.040 yards per attempt. It just wasn't great. That third and 0:52:54.100 --> 0:52:57.320 five that could have clinched the game for them. He 0:52:57.580 --> 0:53:00.180 was under pressure against a zero look. Missed the throw 0:53:00.200 --> 0:53:02.970 against Bijan, where Bijan was matched up in space against 0:53:02.989 --> 0:53:06.030 a 40-year-old Calais Campbell. You hit that throw, you probably 0:53:06.050 --> 0:53:08.419 win the game. They didn't hit the throw. They didn't 0:53:08.440 --> 0:53:11.129 win the game. So that's the key thing for here 0:53:11.190 --> 0:53:14.610 on the Atlanta side. On the Chicago side, is Caleb playing, 0:53:14.650 --> 0:53:18.090 yes or no? I believe he is, just based on 0:53:18.110 --> 0:53:22.069 the pregame workout that he did this past week. It 0:53:22.140 --> 0:53:25.640 looked like they were really close to letting him go, 0:53:26.320 --> 0:53:28.120 but they wanted to be cautious with it just to 0:53:28.200 --> 0:53:30.839 make sure that there were no complications. I do believe 0:53:30.860 --> 0:53:33.470 he's going to play this week, if I had to 0:53:33.530 --> 0:53:37.300 guess on that. And I still, even with their banged 0:53:37.380 --> 0:53:41.100 up running backs and even with the secondary not playing 0:53:41.140 --> 0:53:44.500 super well last week, I still do believe that the 0:53:44.880 --> 0:53:48.280 difference in quarterback play between Caleb Williams and Michael Penix 0:53:48.380 --> 0:53:50.540 is big enough where I think the Bears are going 0:53:50.560 --> 0:53:54.380 to win this game. That being said, not very confident 0:53:54.420 --> 0:53:56.700 in it. I put it at the three spot. 0:53:57.540 --> 0:54:01.049 Okay, so I have the Bears winning this game as well. 0:54:02.210 --> 0:54:05.430 I have it I have it at the seventh spot. 0:54:05.690 --> 0:54:07.410 And I think that that just comes down to how 0:54:07.450 --> 0:54:10.830 much faith I have in Ben Johnson with Caleb Williams 0:54:11.010 --> 0:54:14.110 as his quarterback. Now, I think the interesting part in 0:54:14.130 --> 0:54:17.950 this game isn't necessarily Caleb himself, but it's how Caleb's 0:54:18.050 --> 0:54:20.960 presence can affect the run game for Chicago. Because you 0:54:21.000 --> 0:54:24.440 go back to that Packers game. Yeah, it was a 0:54:24.480 --> 0:54:29.480 massive gap on the scoreboard. But really, the difference. 0:54:29.200 --> 0:54:30.400 In this game was. 0:54:31.200 --> 0:54:34.259 how quickly the Bears let this script get away from them, 0:54:34.340 --> 0:54:36.200 and then they were not able to run the ball. 0:54:36.280 --> 0:54:37.920 You get into the second half of this game, you 0:54:37.940 --> 0:54:40.320 basically have to throw. You're down so much on the scoreboard. 0:54:40.580 --> 0:54:43.000 They're down two scores in the second quarter. You can't 0:54:43.020 --> 0:54:44.660 even play the game plan that you want to. And 0:54:44.680 --> 0:54:47.040 for as much as the talk is always about Ben 0:54:47.080 --> 0:54:49.180 Johnson and Caleb Williams and you know, what they can 0:54:49.200 --> 0:54:51.020 do in this offense, passing the football and all the 0:54:51.060 --> 0:54:53.489 explosives through the air. It's the run game, man. I mean, 0:54:53.510 --> 0:54:55.270 you go back to that Carolina game that they played 0:54:55.310 --> 0:54:57.630 in week one. Yeah, Caleb was great. It was the 0:54:57.690 --> 0:54:59.890 run game, man. They were running the ball all over 0:54:59.930 --> 0:55:01.670 the Panthers and that's what they want to do. Now 0:55:01.710 --> 0:55:05.049 the Falcons specifically have been great at defending the run 0:55:05.090 --> 0:55:06.610 this year. They're one of the better teams when it 0:55:06.650 --> 0:55:10.109 comes to yards per game allowed on the ground. They've 0:55:10.140 --> 0:55:13.600 been very sound in that area. So I think the 0:55:13.620 --> 0:55:16.410 Bears will need Caleb to be in this game to 0:55:16.690 --> 0:55:18.810 take off that pressure of the run game. But if 0:55:18.870 --> 0:55:20.489 he plays, and I agree with you, I think he 0:55:20.550 --> 0:55:24.540 does play. I think that offense is balanced enough. And 0:55:24.580 --> 0:55:26.160 I think that they're able to get it done. So 0:55:26.300 --> 0:55:29.360 I put Chicago at the seven spot here because I 0:55:29.380 --> 0:55:30.660 think it's going to be a little bit better for 0:55:30.700 --> 0:55:32.560 them on the ground because they're going to be a 0:55:32.580 --> 0:55:35.000 little bit more balanced in this game. Speaking of the 0:55:35.040 --> 0:55:38.960 Baltimore Ravens, who defeated the Atlanta Falcons last week, Baltimore's 0:55:39.000 --> 0:55:42.060 taking on the Cleveland Browns. Browns coming off a loss 0:55:42.080 --> 0:55:43.719 to the New York Jets. What do you think about 0:55:43.760 --> 0:55:45.259 this game? Who are you taking and where is it. 0:55:45.239 --> 0:55:48.620 In the rankings? I'm taking Baltimore. I put it at 0:55:48.640 --> 0:55:53.469 the sixth spot. I don't think that Huntley had a 0:55:53.680 --> 0:55:57.630 remarkable day last week against Atlanta, but he did exactly 0:55:57.650 --> 0:56:00.550 what a backup quarterback is supposed to do. Second half 0:56:00.570 --> 0:56:03.570 in OT, he was 13 of 14, didn't even attempt 0:56:03.590 --> 0:56:06.529 to pass over 20 yards, only completed two passes over 0:56:06.530 --> 0:56:09.530 10 yards. But if you're looking at the passing map 0:56:10.070 --> 0:56:13.110 and seeing how he distributed the ball underneath, he used 0:56:13.230 --> 0:56:15.900 every blade of grass under 10 yards. It wasn't just a, 0:56:15.890 --> 0:56:18.410 I'm pushing it to the boundary. He also used the 0:56:18.870 --> 0:56:21.029 short middle of the field too, which if you're going 0:56:21.050 --> 0:56:23.969 to play that kind of point guard style, that's exactly 0:56:24.030 --> 0:56:25.350 how you should be doing. You should be willing to 0:56:25.370 --> 0:56:28.870 work the middle as well. So I think whether it's Huntley... 0:56:29.260 --> 0:56:32.700 Or Lamar, as of right now, we don't know if 0:56:32.820 --> 0:56:35.940 Lamar is going to be back. But no matter who 0:56:36.020 --> 0:56:38.420 is in there at quarterback for Baltimore, I have confidence 0:56:38.440 --> 0:56:42.160 in their ability to execute this offense because they are still, 0:56:42.480 --> 0:56:46.050 even after starting Snoop against a good Falcons defense, they're 0:56:46.070 --> 0:56:49.049 the number one offense in the entire league in terms 0:56:49.090 --> 0:56:52.009 of success rate. Like Declan Doyle is cooking no matter 0:56:52.070 --> 0:56:55.270 who is out there. So I have a lot of 0:56:55.290 --> 0:56:58.529 confidence in this offense. I have confidence in Jesse Minter 0:56:58.550 --> 0:57:01.830 in terms of game management over, let's just say the 0:57:01.870 --> 0:57:06.029 previous era. I think he's been overall very good at that. And, 0:57:06.070 --> 0:57:11.320 you know, Cleveland, I think they're better than I thought 0:57:11.380 --> 0:57:13.650 they would be going into this year. I think a 0:57:13.680 --> 0:57:15.860 lot of their young talent has played really well. Denzel 0:57:15.880 --> 0:57:18.660 Boston's been awesome. You know, they've been very good at 0:57:18.700 --> 0:57:21.920 getting yards after the catch. I just still feel like 0:57:21.940 --> 0:57:24.180 they're a year away from being a year away. And 0:57:24.220 --> 0:57:27.220 while this game will be close, I really do believe 0:57:27.240 --> 0:57:31.360 it's going to be close. Ultimately, I just have more 0:57:31.640 --> 0:57:35.380 faith in the baseline of the Baltimore Ravens than I 0:57:35.400 --> 0:57:37.920 do in the baseline of the Cleveland Browns. So give 0:57:37.940 --> 0:57:40.720 me the Ravens in this one narrowly. But I did 0:57:40.760 --> 0:57:42.780 put it at the confidence spot of six. 0:57:43.570 --> 0:57:46.580 Yeah, the Browns are still a team that is playing 0:57:46.620 --> 0:57:48.260 a lot of young guys. And I think early on 0:57:48.280 --> 0:57:50.720 in the season, they were playing above expectation. They really 0:57:50.760 --> 0:57:52.640 were able to surprise teams. And that's how you get 0:57:52.920 --> 0:57:55.690 a couple of those early wins for Cleveland. But I 0:57:55.710 --> 0:57:58.420 think this past week against the Browns, or excuse me, 0:57:58.430 --> 0:58:02.490 this past week against the Jets, you saw, okay, we're 0:58:02.530 --> 0:58:04.170 playing a lot of rookies. And it really showed up 0:58:04.210 --> 0:58:07.280 in this game specifically with how often Deshaun Watson was pressured. 0:58:07.540 --> 0:58:10.240 Deshaun was pressured on 26 of his 44 dropbacks. It's 0:58:10.280 --> 0:58:13.220 almost a 60% pressure rate. It's the second highest pressure 0:58:13.240 --> 0:58:15.500 rate Watson's faced in a single game since 2018. It 0:58:15.540 --> 0:58:18.610 was the most of an Aaron Glenn team since he 0:58:18.640 --> 0:58:21.110 took over for the New York Jets. And so they 0:58:21.150 --> 0:58:25.050 were really able to get after a younger offensive line. 0:58:25.810 --> 0:58:28.910 And even though the Ravens' pass rush isn't the best 0:58:28.950 --> 0:58:31.570 that it's been over the last half decade, I still 0:58:31.610 --> 0:58:34.470 think that this unit can rattle Deshaun Watson and this 0:58:34.550 --> 0:58:36.610 offense and a lot of these young guys, especially if 0:58:36.630 --> 0:58:39.450 the offense is playing at a pretty high level. Like 0:58:39.470 --> 0:58:42.550 you had mentioned, their success rate's been pretty consistently high 0:58:42.650 --> 0:58:43.490 all season long. 0:58:44.390 --> 0:58:45.030 If that's going to. 0:58:44.990 --> 0:58:46.350 Continue to be the case, which I think that it 0:58:46.390 --> 0:58:49.660 can be, give me Baltimore in this one. They were 0:58:49.720 --> 0:58:52.100 lucky for me in the eighth spot last week. Let's 0:58:52.140 --> 0:58:53.760 keep them in the eighth spot for this week. So 0:58:53.780 --> 0:58:55.400 I'll take Baltimore and I'll have them at the eighth 0:58:55.420 --> 0:58:59.840 spot here. What about the Philadelphia Eagles and the Carolina Panthers? 0:59:00.080 --> 0:59:01.700 What do you think. 0:59:01.000 --> 0:59:02.820 About this game? 0:59:02.820 --> 0:59:07.730 What do the Eagles do well? Like, I don't... Truly. 0:59:07.730 --> 0:59:10.210 It's it's, it's one of those things that I can 0:59:10.370 --> 0:59:15.260 answer that question for you inconsistently. Like, I think that 0:59:15.300 --> 0:59:18.780 hurts is still doing a nice job of avoiding the 0:59:18.820 --> 0:59:22.440 big negatives and escaping pressure when it's in the pocket 0:59:22.720 --> 0:59:25.380 versus a, an offensive line. That's not ideal or not 0:59:25.420 --> 0:59:29.050 typical of a Philly offensive line over the last half decade. Um, 0:59:29.430 --> 0:59:32.310 they can throw it deep, you know, when the game 0:59:32.330 --> 0:59:34.550 script kind of calls for it, especially outside the numbers, 0:59:34.590 --> 0:59:37.080 cause Hertz is good at that. But do they do 0:59:37.120 --> 0:59:40.620 those things consistently? No, even though they're good at it, 0:59:40.620 --> 0:59:42.520 they don't do them consistently this year. So it's tough 0:59:42.540 --> 0:59:43.280 to answer that question. 0:59:44.800 --> 0:59:47.530 I think, you know, while Carolina does have some of 0:59:47.550 --> 0:59:50.010 their own issues, obviously they've been banged up on defense, 0:59:50.210 --> 0:59:54.810 you know, losing both corners doesn't help anybody. Um, you know, 0:59:54.850 --> 0:59:56.070 I think the bye week came at a good time 0:59:56.090 --> 0:59:59.910 for them to try to get healthy again. but offensively 1:00:00.770 --> 1:00:04.710 these two teams are not in the same tier, like 1:00:04.750 --> 1:00:08.410 not even close. Like Bryce is playing fantastic. McMillan is 1:00:08.450 --> 1:00:11.830 playing fan, like more than fantastic. He's been unbelievable, especially 1:00:11.870 --> 1:00:13.710 now they're giving him more reps in the slot where 1:00:13.750 --> 1:00:16.890 he is just eating people alive. The run game was productive. 1:00:16.930 --> 1:00:19.820 The last time we saw them young offensive line, you know, 1:00:19.860 --> 1:00:23.320 similar to Cleveland, I think has been a little up 1:00:23.360 --> 1:00:25.320 and down, but Bryce has been so good under pressure. 1:00:25.340 --> 1:00:28.320 It hasn't really mattered that much. I think Canales is 1:00:28.360 --> 1:00:30.660 getting the most out of this team, even through the 1:00:30.740 --> 1:00:35.439 injuries that started back in August in camp. We still 1:00:35.500 --> 1:00:38.600 haven't seen anything close to what a fully armed and 1:00:38.660 --> 1:00:41.740 operational Panthers team looks like when they're fully healthy. We 1:00:41.820 --> 1:00:44.040 won't this entire year because of some of their injuries. 1:00:44.480 --> 1:00:47.020 But they're still a really good team even through that. 1:00:47.100 --> 1:00:49.950 And they just do so many things well that they 1:00:49.970 --> 1:00:53.590 can hang their hat on, especially offensively compared to the Eagles, 1:00:53.630 --> 1:00:55.770 that I don't think they have an identity. I don't 1:00:55.790 --> 1:00:58.450 think they... they have anything they can really lean on 1:00:58.910 --> 1:01:00.950 to win this game. So give me Carolina, put them 1:01:00.970 --> 1:01:01.670 at the eight spot. 1:01:02.650 --> 1:01:04.790 So I also have Carolina in this game. I have 1:01:04.810 --> 1:01:07.050 them at the five spot right in the middle. And 1:01:09.170 --> 1:01:13.340 I have more faith in Carolina to execute this game 1:01:13.380 --> 1:01:15.450 plan the way that they want to, but they could 1:01:15.490 --> 1:01:18.580 potentially have some other heavy hitters coming back in this game, right? 1:01:18.600 --> 1:01:20.880 Devontae Smith could come back in this game. Saquon Barkley 1:01:20.900 --> 1:01:22.580 could come back in this game. And obviously they've had 1:01:22.600 --> 1:01:24.890 those guys and still had their struggles, but If those 1:01:24.930 --> 1:01:27.250 guys play, Angus is a lot closer, and I think 1:01:27.290 --> 1:01:29.270 they have the ability to keep this game closer than 1:01:29.310 --> 1:01:31.570 maybe most think. But when you talk about Bryce Young 1:01:31.590 --> 1:01:34.250 and this Panthers offense, it's fantastic. He's top five, if 1:01:34.310 --> 1:01:38.470 not top three in passing yards, completion percentage above expected, 1:01:38.990 --> 1:01:42.190 EPA per dropback, all against zone. He is an assassin 1:01:42.510 --> 1:01:44.610 this year, and anytime you have a quarterback who's playing 1:01:44.650 --> 1:01:46.910 that confidently, it's hard to bet against him. So even 1:01:46.930 --> 1:01:48.470 though I only have him at the five spot here, 1:01:48.750 --> 1:01:51.430 I do still have the Carolina Panthers at the five 1:01:51.470 --> 1:01:55.600 spot to beat the Philadelphia Eagles. The Pittsburgh Steelers and 1:01:55.620 --> 1:01:58.300 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay, the team that tripped 1:01:58.380 --> 1:02:01.980 up everybody last week. Who are you picking in this 1:02:02.040 --> 1:02:03.720 game and where is it going on the confidence rankings? 1:02:04.480 --> 1:02:06.140 So the Steelers have been another one of these teams 1:02:06.160 --> 1:02:08.990 that has been really good at getting yards after the catch. 1:02:09.030 --> 1:02:15.310 They had 179 yards after the catch last week. Aaron Rodgers, 1:02:15.350 --> 1:02:18.270 he's three straight games with three touchdowns. But a lot 1:02:18.290 --> 1:02:20.290 of that is just because his guys have been so 1:02:20.550 --> 1:02:26.030 good after the catch. And I do wonder... if Tampa 1:02:26.050 --> 1:02:27.880 Bay is going to be able to do anything about 1:02:27.900 --> 1:02:29.960 Jalen Warren in space, it feels like nobody's been able 1:02:29.980 --> 1:02:31.800 to do anything about Jalen Warren in space so far 1:02:31.860 --> 1:02:34.660 this year. I do think that this is going to 1:02:34.700 --> 1:02:39.060 be a fairly close game. I don't necessarily think that, 1:02:40.550 --> 1:02:45.430 that Pittsburgh is, how do I say this diplomatically? I 1:02:45.530 --> 1:02:47.090 don't think they're going to be there in the end 1:02:47.650 --> 1:02:48.410 at the AFC. 1:02:48.970 --> 1:02:49.150 Hmm. 1:02:49.570 --> 1:02:49.770 Okay. 1:02:50.580 --> 1:02:52.160 But I also don't think Tampa's even going to be 1:02:52.180 --> 1:02:54.080 in the playoffs at this point. So if we're just 1:02:54.120 --> 1:02:57.120 looking at which team is better, I would say Pittsburgh 1:02:57.220 --> 1:03:00.280 is better. But this reads to me like a battle 1:03:00.320 --> 1:03:05.920 of two teams that are not contenders. And so which 1:03:06.080 --> 1:03:10.240 one is just closer to being solid or just is solid? 1:03:10.320 --> 1:03:14.350 I would say the Steelers. Really exciting, young, talented offensive line, 1:03:14.490 --> 1:03:18.170 plus great running back, plus quarterback that's just not making mistakes, 1:03:18.190 --> 1:03:22.850 and Aaron Rodgers. you know, you have a woolly mammoth 1:03:22.930 --> 1:03:24.850 at tight end and Darnell Washington, where you give him 1:03:24.890 --> 1:03:26.690 the ball and let him rumble. There's just so many 1:03:26.750 --> 1:03:29.970 things that they can do. That's what he is, man. 1:03:30.010 --> 1:03:32.670 Like he's just impossible to bring down by, by yourself. 1:03:32.730 --> 1:03:35.450 So like Rogers doesn't have to make crazy throws. He 1:03:35.470 --> 1:03:37.890 just has guys that can make plays once they have 1:03:37.910 --> 1:03:40.430 the ball in their hands. And that's a tough formula 1:03:40.470 --> 1:03:42.790 to deal with. So yeah, give me Pittsburgh here, but 1:03:42.830 --> 1:03:44.570 I did put it at the one spot. Cause I, 1:03:44.710 --> 1:03:47.320 I still, I'm, I'm not all the way in on 1:03:47.360 --> 1:03:49.560 the Steelers this year. I just think they're better than Tampa. 1:03:49.860 --> 1:03:52.440 Yeah, understandably so. I mean, it's interesting that you brought 1:03:52.460 --> 1:03:56.520 up Aaron Rodgers. 22 of 31 passes last week, 235 yards, 1:03:56.560 --> 1:03:57.800 three touchdowns, no interceptions. 1:03:57.820 --> 1:04:00.570 You'd be like, well, phenomenal day at the office. 1:04:00.330 --> 1:04:04.510 For Aaron Rodgers. 4.1 air yards per attempt. That's his 1:04:04.610 --> 1:04:06.350 lowest of a single game this season. 1:04:06.370 --> 1:04:06.810 So you're right. 1:04:06.850 --> 1:04:09.710 That's the script. But even with that being the script... 1:04:10.680 --> 1:04:13.300 I don't know how much faith I have in the 1:04:13.340 --> 1:04:15.520 Buccaneers to be able to cover either Jalen Warren or 1:04:15.560 --> 1:04:18.800 Darnell Washington, like you mentioned. I think that Jacob Parrish 1:04:18.820 --> 1:04:21.370 has been fantastic and very reliable for them tackling, but 1:04:21.450 --> 1:04:24.610 he's just one man in that secondary. The rest is 1:04:24.650 --> 1:04:27.110 kind of up for grabs. I took Pittsburgh and I 1:04:27.150 --> 1:04:29.060 took them at the sixth spot here just because I 1:04:29.660 --> 1:04:31.840 don't think that Pittsburgh has a high ceiling as a team. 1:04:32.290 --> 1:04:34.670 But even the floor of this team, I think you 1:04:34.710 --> 1:04:36.410 have to kind of bet on that given all of 1:04:36.470 --> 1:04:40.030 Tampa's inconsistencies. Even last week, I mean, Tampa was great, 1:04:40.070 --> 1:04:42.310 don't get me wrong, but you take out a couple 1:04:42.330 --> 1:04:46.370 of Bucky Irving crazy runs from this game and they 1:04:46.410 --> 1:04:49.400 might not even win that game against a Cowboys team 1:04:49.420 --> 1:04:53.740 that played horribly. So it's hard to have a lot 1:04:53.760 --> 1:04:55.760 of faith in this Tampa team until they really start 1:04:55.780 --> 1:04:57.980 to stack better games and I'm not ready to bet 1:04:58.040 --> 1:04:59.720 on them yet. So give me Pittsburgh, give me them 1:04:59.740 --> 1:05:02.260 at the sixth spot here. What about the Los Angeles 1:05:02.320 --> 1:05:04.880 Rams and the Arizona Cardinals as our next game here? 1:05:05.040 --> 1:05:07.060 A battle in the NFC West. 1:05:07.280 --> 1:05:10.120 That Cardinals game was not close. They jumped out to 1:05:10.140 --> 1:05:12.220 an early lead. They got a couple, not even a couple, 1:05:12.240 --> 1:05:14.640 they got three three-and-outs in a row off the Lions. 1:05:14.660 --> 1:05:16.950 They had a 14-play drive that scored early. And then 1:05:16.990 --> 1:05:22.750 they went three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out. Back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back. And then 1:05:22.790 --> 1:05:25.430 threw a pick going into halftime. You know, it's arm punt. 1:05:25.750 --> 1:05:28.980 Last few seconds, who cares? But you have six straight 1:05:29.020 --> 1:05:31.970 drives doing absolutely nothing. And in that time span, the 1:05:32.010 --> 1:05:36.050 Lions did touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. Next thing you know, 1:05:36.070 --> 1:05:39.510 it's 24-7. So they started out getting three stops and 1:05:39.570 --> 1:05:45.640 with a lead and then just got steamrolled. This team 1:05:45.700 --> 1:05:49.480 is not close. They're really not close. And looking back 1:05:49.540 --> 1:05:52.590 on that win... against the Chargers in week one, where 1:05:52.610 --> 1:05:55.810 initially we're like, oh, okay, Cardinals might be kind of 1:05:55.850 --> 1:05:58.590 feisty here. Like, we like the Chargers. Now we know 1:05:58.610 --> 1:06:01.090 the Chargers are just bad. Yeah, right. It's like, okay, 1:06:01.190 --> 1:06:03.090 that was a bad team beating a bad team, right? 1:06:03.150 --> 1:06:07.500 So I just, I don't think they're anything near the 1:06:07.540 --> 1:06:09.580 Rams at this point. Not that the Rams don't have 1:06:09.620 --> 1:06:13.040 their own issues. Obviously they do. But when the rubber 1:06:13.060 --> 1:06:16.120 meets the road and you play against a really good 1:06:16.200 --> 1:06:19.950 quarterback with really good weapons and a really good in 1:06:19.990 --> 1:06:23.930 a really good system, even if you spot them seven 1:06:23.990 --> 1:06:28.040 points early, they can just have these avalanches happen against them. 1:06:28.080 --> 1:06:31.220 When they do these three and outs, and their defense 1:06:31.260 --> 1:06:33.080 gets gassed because they're always on the field, and the 1:06:33.120 --> 1:06:35.760 offense can't stay on the field, and it just looks 1:06:35.900 --> 1:06:40.200 like that. So give me the Rams. I'm very, very 1:06:40.260 --> 1:06:43.040 confident in this one. I put it at the nine spot. 1:06:45.150 --> 1:06:47.210 I'll do you one better. I put them at the 1:06:47.210 --> 1:06:49.330 10 spot. I picked the Rams at the 10 spot 1:06:49.390 --> 1:06:51.470 in this game. And the reason why is because I 1:06:51.510 --> 1:06:53.810 think that these are teams that are going in different directions. 1:06:53.890 --> 1:06:56.830 I understand the Rams didn't win in overtime against the Bills, 1:06:56.870 --> 1:06:59.270 but I think they're looking better and better as a 1:06:59.310 --> 1:07:00.210 team overall. 1:07:00.750 --> 1:07:01.630 And even though I. 1:07:01.610 --> 1:07:04.670 Think that the Rams can certainly put up points, I trust, 1:07:04.950 --> 1:07:07.350 or sorry, the Cardinals can put up points. I trust 1:07:07.390 --> 1:07:09.570 the Rams to be the better finisher in this game. 1:07:09.610 --> 1:07:14.260 And also, Brett, they have to win this game. They 1:07:14.280 --> 1:07:17.040 have to win this game because this is now the 1:07:17.100 --> 1:07:18.580 start of their run. 1:07:18.560 --> 1:07:22.260 Of Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, Commanders, Cardinals. 1:07:22.340 --> 1:07:25.480 And in that five-game stretch, they basically have to win 1:07:25.580 --> 1:07:28.390 four out of those five games. And if you drop 1:07:28.410 --> 1:07:30.650 the first one, that's not the place that you want 1:07:30.690 --> 1:07:33.910 to be. So I think this Rams team knows that 1:07:34.290 --> 1:07:36.650 their back's against the wall here. They have to win 1:07:36.690 --> 1:07:39.780 this game against the Cardinals. And I think they're going 1:07:39.800 --> 1:07:42.280 to give the Cardinals their absolute best. So give me 1:07:42.300 --> 1:07:44.260 Los Angeles here. I've got them at the 10th spot 1:07:44.610 --> 1:07:48.310 this week. Staying in Los Angeles, the Chargers are taking 1:07:48.410 --> 1:07:50.050 on the Kansas City Chiefs. What do you think about 1:07:50.070 --> 1:07:50.390 this game? 1:07:50.810 --> 1:07:52.630 I got to go to the Chiefs. Similar kind of 1:07:52.650 --> 1:07:54.410 thing when we talk about the Eagles. What do the 1:07:54.450 --> 1:07:58.890 Chargers do well right now other than just stop the 1:07:58.930 --> 1:08:01.850 bleeding on defense? This is a very good defense in 1:08:01.890 --> 1:08:04.900 terms of EPA per play, but they're still 22nd in 1:08:04.940 --> 1:08:08.470 terms of points given up. just because they have by 1:08:08.570 --> 1:08:12.070 far the most drives that start in their own territory 1:08:12.110 --> 1:08:14.770 this year. It's over three and a half per game 1:08:14.810 --> 1:08:17.970 that start in Charger territory that this Chargers defense has 1:08:17.990 --> 1:08:21.189 to deal with. 19 total drives have started on their 1:08:21.229 --> 1:08:24.760 side of the 50. You can't play defense that way either. 1:08:29.300 --> 1:08:31.560 I feel bad for Chargers fans because it really did 1:08:31.620 --> 1:08:35.330 feel like going into this year, The hype really was 1:08:35.470 --> 1:08:38.110 at an all-time high. You bring in McDaniel. You have 1:08:38.130 --> 1:08:43.419 your tackles back. On paper, we like the weapons. The defense, 1:08:43.660 --> 1:08:45.820 you're still keeping the same system with the same core 1:08:45.840 --> 1:08:50.320 of talent. Everything was lining up for them to just 1:08:50.360 --> 1:08:53.360 be a better version of what they were last year. 1:08:53.560 --> 1:08:57.930 And they are quite possibly the worst version of the 1:08:57.970 --> 1:09:02.040 Chargers that I've seen either. even going back like multiple 1:09:02.140 --> 1:09:05.770 regimes like did the Brandon Staley era Chargers ever look 1:09:05.939 --> 1:09:11.550 this hopeless I'm not sure that they have and and 1:09:11.590 --> 1:09:13.230 here we are five weeks into the season and they 1:09:13.570 --> 1:09:16.820 they really do look hopeless So even with the defense 1:09:16.840 --> 1:09:18.540 putting up a good fight, it hasn't really made that 1:09:18.560 --> 1:09:21.820 much of a difference. Give me the Chiefs by a 1:09:21.939 --> 1:09:24.760 lot in this game. I put it at the 7th spot. 1:09:27.420 --> 1:09:29.400 Once again, I have this one a little bit higher 1:09:29.439 --> 1:09:31.019 than you. Give me the Chiefs, and I'm going to 1:09:31.040 --> 1:09:32.880 put it at the 9th spot. Now, the only saving 1:09:32.920 --> 1:09:35.120 grace that I feel like I have for the Chargers 1:09:35.260 --> 1:09:38.479 is the Chargers have played the Chiefs close a lot 1:09:38.560 --> 1:09:41.380 over the last couple of seasons, and for the longest time, 1:09:41.439 --> 1:09:45.850 the Chiefs have been— in ways still are, the crown 1:09:45.910 --> 1:09:50.330 jewel of that division. And no matter what, any of 1:09:50.390 --> 1:09:55.250 those three teams that go up against the Chiefs, the Broncos, 1:09:55.290 --> 1:09:58.770 the Chargers, the Raiders, or whatever, they circle this game 1:09:58.830 --> 1:10:01.870 on the calendar. They go, okay, who cares what we 1:10:01.890 --> 1:10:04.219 did the rest of the year? If we can say 1:10:04.310 --> 1:10:07.099 we beat Kansas City, we're going to have some pride. 1:10:07.640 --> 1:10:09.500 And so again, just like I kind of talked about 1:10:09.540 --> 1:10:11.540 with the Rams, that they've got to win this game. 1:10:12.290 --> 1:10:15.430 I think the same with the Chargers. Because if you 1:10:15.470 --> 1:10:18.339 beat the Chiefs, it can be a mini turnaround for you. 1:10:18.350 --> 1:10:19.760 I think it's a little too late to be talking 1:10:19.780 --> 1:10:21.720 about the postseason with them in any way, shape, or form. 1:10:21.979 --> 1:10:24.160 But at least you're playing for some pride. You lose 1:10:24.200 --> 1:10:28.400 this game, and this avalanche continues being winless, boy, this 1:10:28.420 --> 1:10:30.320 is going to get real ugly down the stretch of 1:10:30.340 --> 1:10:30.719 the season. 1:10:30.939 --> 1:10:34.300 So again, this feels like a game where, I mean, 1:10:34.340 --> 1:10:37.960 Herbert has looked... Just, I don't know, man. 1:10:38.180 --> 1:10:40.549 Unfocused, it feels like at times. I mean, I don't 1:10:40.560 --> 1:10:42.450 even know what he's looking at. He's throwing the easiest 1:10:42.490 --> 1:10:45.809 interceptions of his entire career, even for people who criticize 1:10:45.850 --> 1:10:48.490 Justin Herbert at the highest level. The interceptions that he's 1:10:48.530 --> 1:10:51.950 throwing this year are totally different. They're in a totally 1:10:51.990 --> 1:10:55.130 different level than anything that he has attempted and tried before. 1:10:55.150 --> 1:10:57.800 It's like he's just not seeing defenders. The run game's inconsistent. 1:10:57.950 --> 1:11:01.140 The O-line is beat up. The receivers aren't consistent. The defense, 1:11:01.160 --> 1:11:01.580 you're right. 1:11:01.680 --> 1:11:04.340 I mean, it's been okay at times, but It can't 1:11:04.420 --> 1:11:07.180 hold up and it can't buoy this offense the way 1:11:07.500 --> 1:11:09.680 that the offense has been playing. All that to say, 1:11:10.479 --> 1:11:13.510 you beat the Chiefs, it's a totally different season. But 1:11:13.550 --> 1:11:14.950 I don't think they're going to beat the Chiefs. Give 1:11:14.970 --> 1:11:16.930 me Kansas City in this game and give me them 1:11:16.950 --> 1:11:20.210 at the 9th spot here. Alright, next game, the Buffalo 1:11:20.250 --> 1:11:22.670 Bills against the Las Vegas Raiders. Bills coming off of 1:11:22.750 --> 1:11:25.480 a thrilling overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams. 1:11:25.640 --> 1:11:27.100 Who you got in this one? So, this is a 1:11:27.160 --> 1:11:32.800 really interesting matchup because I'm not entirely sure what approach... 1:11:32.830 --> 1:11:36.010 the Raiders defense is going to take here. Yeah, right, right. 1:11:36.130 --> 1:11:39.030 They played with fire, played some quarters against Drake May. 1:11:39.070 --> 1:11:41.479 That's not something you want to do. It basically creates 1:11:41.520 --> 1:11:43.439 these one-on-ones. And if you're going to give Drake May 1:11:43.460 --> 1:11:45.320 a one-on-one, he's going to drop the ball in the 1:11:45.360 --> 1:11:48.340 bucket and he's going to score. Had three touchdowns just 1:11:48.380 --> 1:11:51.640 against quarters last week. This is not necessarily a team 1:11:51.680 --> 1:11:55.170 that majors in quarters. In fact, their most called coverage 1:11:55.330 --> 1:11:57.729 is cover three. They also play a bunch of cloud, 1:11:57.810 --> 1:12:02.110 but really they're only coverage that they're like top, in 1:12:02.310 --> 1:12:05.000 is cover three and if you're looking at josh allen 1:12:05.020 --> 1:12:08.780 specifically against cover three is a 105.7 passer rating against 1:12:08.820 --> 1:12:10.740 it this year eight and a half yards per attempt 1:12:11.200 --> 1:12:15.770 completion percentage over expected of 5.2 percent he's not getting 1:12:15.780 --> 1:12:19.769 the same explosives that he did you know specifically against 1:12:19.810 --> 1:12:22.870 these middle field closed coverages that you know when he 1:12:22.890 --> 1:12:26.830 had like stefan diggs and gabe davis back when gabe 1:12:26.850 --> 1:12:30.320 davis would all he did was catch 50 yarders right 1:12:30.380 --> 1:12:33.519 it's not it's It's not the same explosive rate against 1:12:33.580 --> 1:12:36.760 his coverage, but he's still very efficient against it. And 1:12:36.780 --> 1:12:38.479 he has a bunch of targets that are really good 1:12:38.520 --> 1:12:42.540 at finding these soft spots in the zone, especially against 1:12:42.580 --> 1:12:46.110 cover three, and just making these hook droppers lives hell. 1:12:46.790 --> 1:12:49.550 So this is almost like a N'Kobe Dean versus Josh 1:12:49.630 --> 1:12:53.120 Allen kind of game. Yeah, that's what I thought too. 1:12:53.250 --> 1:12:55.330 You and I are in the same spot. If anybody's 1:12:55.350 --> 1:12:56.570 going to get targeted a lot, it's going to be 1:12:56.610 --> 1:12:59.849 N'Kobe Dean. So how does he hold up here? That's 1:12:59.860 --> 1:13:03.450 what I'm really curious to see. Also, the Raiders' rush 1:13:03.530 --> 1:13:06.170 discipline has to be a lot better than the Rams' was. 1:13:06.229 --> 1:13:09.070 We talked about that, obviously, where they were just giving 1:13:09.110 --> 1:13:11.429 these seams for Allen to step up through the front door, 1:13:11.450 --> 1:13:15.130 and he got 120 yards rushing on Monday night because 1:13:15.150 --> 1:13:18.380 the Rams were bad at rush lane discipline. Can they 1:13:18.420 --> 1:13:21.500 keep Allen contained in the pocket, and can these linebackers 1:13:21.620 --> 1:13:24.420 not get eaten alive when they're in cover three? Those 1:13:24.439 --> 1:13:27.260 are the two main questions. As far as the answers 1:13:27.280 --> 1:13:31.939 to that, I still lean towards Josh Allen and the Bills. 1:13:32.860 --> 1:13:35.810 I don't feel amazing about it, but if you ask 1:13:35.860 --> 1:13:39.150 me to just look at the top line of Josh 1:13:39.250 --> 1:13:42.030 Allen and the Bills versus Kirk Cousins and the Raiders, 1:13:42.350 --> 1:13:45.030 how close do you think the Raiders are to being 1:13:45.110 --> 1:13:48.269 at that level of team? A couple weeks ago, I 1:13:48.300 --> 1:13:52.920 would have said fairly close. After last week, less so. 1:13:53.800 --> 1:13:57.420 So I'll take Buffalo narrowly. I put it at the 1:13:57.460 --> 1:14:01.420 five spot. I gave, I think, my respect to both sides. 1:14:02.120 --> 1:14:03.360 I don't think it's going to be a blowout. I 1:14:03.380 --> 1:14:06.439 don't think it's going to be an unentertaining game. In fact, 1:14:06.479 --> 1:14:07.860 I think it's going to be damn good TV, but 1:14:07.900 --> 1:14:09.800 I do think the Bills will win. I'm going to 1:14:09.820 --> 1:14:10.580 take the Bills as well. 1:14:10.660 --> 1:14:12.420 I only have it in my two spot, and it's 1:14:12.479 --> 1:14:15.900 because I'm a little uncertain on a handful of things. 1:14:16.439 --> 1:14:18.470 One of the big ones for the Raiders, and I 1:14:18.510 --> 1:14:20.150 think they can definitely keep it close in this game 1:14:20.189 --> 1:14:22.450 and maybe even get the upset because Look, if you 1:14:22.470 --> 1:14:24.809 play a certain style of coverage that Josh Allen just 1:14:24.850 --> 1:14:26.790 feels like he can get aggressive with and he can't, 1:14:27.050 --> 1:14:29.300 let's say you've got an extra deep defender and he's like, yeah, 1:14:29.340 --> 1:14:30.320 I'm still going to challenge it. 1:14:30.340 --> 1:14:31.660 I mean, we even saw that for the Rams. 1:14:32.000 --> 1:14:33.680 He had a throw where he was like, nah, okay, 1:14:33.920 --> 1:14:35.480 I don't care. I'm just going to challenge it anyways. 1:14:35.800 --> 1:14:37.420 You get too many of those and anybody can beat 1:14:37.439 --> 1:14:39.429 the Bills. And I think that's the pro and the 1:14:39.439 --> 1:14:41.570 con of Josh Allen, of course. You can beat anybody, 1:14:41.610 --> 1:14:44.210 but also if you beat yourself, well, you're letting everybody 1:14:44.250 --> 1:14:46.250 back in the door. But for the Raiders, the big 1:14:46.290 --> 1:14:48.550 issue for me is along their offensive line. That's where 1:14:48.570 --> 1:14:51.160 they really struggled defensively. last week for the first time 1:14:51.520 --> 1:14:54.440 all season. They only had one offensive lineman. It was 1:14:54.479 --> 1:14:57.700 DJ Glaze, who had a pressure percentage below 12% in 1:14:57.740 --> 1:15:00.219 that game. Everybody else, I mean, I'm talking about quarterback 1:15:00.260 --> 1:15:01.100 pressures allowed. 1:15:01.360 --> 1:15:03.490 Colton Miller, five. Tyler Linderbaum, five. 1:15:03.530 --> 1:15:06.570 Spencer Burford, nine. Jackson Powers Johnson, five. I mean, they're 1:15:06.610 --> 1:15:09.230 just giving up pressures a lot to the Patriots, and 1:15:09.250 --> 1:15:10.870 that was a major issue. If that doesn't get better, 1:15:10.890 --> 1:15:12.630 they're not going to win. This is more of a 1:15:12.650 --> 1:15:14.750 toss-up game than I thought. So give me Buffalo, but 1:15:14.790 --> 1:15:16.730 give me them at the two spot. What about the 1:15:16.810 --> 1:15:20.820 Washington Commanders? and the San Francisco 49ers. What do you 1:15:20.840 --> 1:15:21.440 think about this game? 1:15:22.520 --> 1:15:27.889 I'm really confident in the Niners. I'm also terrified because 1:15:27.950 --> 1:15:31.530 I put it at my 10 spot. Ah, there it is. 1:15:31.670 --> 1:15:34.670 There it is. 10 spots haven't been good for us lately, man. 1:15:34.810 --> 1:15:38.130 Looking at all the games this week and what our 1:15:38.270 --> 1:15:41.760 options were, it's like I could have maybe done Carolina there. 1:15:41.840 --> 1:15:43.960 I maybe could have done the Rams there. Could have 1:15:43.979 --> 1:15:47.590 done the Chiefs there. But ultimately, if we're just looking 1:15:47.620 --> 1:15:50.470 at who is the best team out of those options, 1:15:51.290 --> 1:15:53.729 I would say San Francisco. As far as who can 1:15:53.810 --> 1:15:55.930 I rely on the most to get me a W 1:15:55.970 --> 1:15:58.590 when I absolutely need it because I don't want to 1:15:58.610 --> 1:16:02.110 lose 10 points, it is the Niners this year. They've 1:16:02.170 --> 1:16:05.130 been banged up in typical Niners fashion. They have not 1:16:05.170 --> 1:16:10.490 been completely healthy. It hasn't necessarily mattered that much. Brock 1:16:10.530 --> 1:16:15.030 Purdy has played well. fantastic football all year long. He 1:16:15.090 --> 1:16:18.630 did get got once last week. Mike McDonald got him 1:16:18.650 --> 1:16:22.110 with a really nifty Palms call, picked him off there 1:16:22.130 --> 1:16:24.570 with Nehemiah Pritchett. But other than that, played a really 1:16:24.610 --> 1:16:27.900 efficient game. Mike Evans has just been a godsend for 1:16:27.939 --> 1:16:31.679 this team. Offensive line, at least before the Seattle game, 1:16:31.720 --> 1:16:34.880 was playing really, really good football. The defense, I mean, 1:16:34.920 --> 1:16:39.200 Grayson Halton has just emerged as a force for them 1:16:39.280 --> 1:16:42.599 on the inside. You have great linebackers there, even though 1:16:42.620 --> 1:16:44.640 they are going to be down Dre Greenlaw in this game. 1:16:44.680 --> 1:16:50.380 But I just compare the quarterback play, the talent, the coaching, 1:16:50.439 --> 1:16:52.540 just all three of those things compared to what the 1:16:52.560 --> 1:16:56.620 Commanders are working with right now. Especially situational awareness, the 1:16:56.640 --> 1:16:59.860 difference between these two teams, apparently. I have to go 1:16:59.890 --> 1:17:01.630 with the Niners. I really do. 1:17:02.830 --> 1:17:06.250 I also have to go with the Niners. I only 1:17:06.290 --> 1:17:08.590 have it in my three spot, and it's just because 1:17:08.650 --> 1:17:12.490 I was like, is this a letdown game for San Francisco? 1:17:12.810 --> 1:17:14.290 You know, they're riding high. 1:17:14.850 --> 1:17:18.710 They're coming off of the victory against Seattle. Obviously, the 1:17:18.729 --> 1:17:21.219 commanders are in the exact opposite spot. They should have 1:17:21.260 --> 1:17:23.400 had a victory, and it obviously did not go well 1:17:23.439 --> 1:17:25.580 at the end. You were talking about that situational awareness, 1:17:25.880 --> 1:17:27.479 but they were still there at the end. 1:17:27.820 --> 1:17:29.140 They were forcing the turnover. 1:17:29.180 --> 1:17:31.849 They got the ball back. They marched into field goal position, and. 1:17:33.740 --> 1:17:34.020 I don't know. 1:17:34.040 --> 1:17:36.980 I saw it more explosive plays for them when Jaden 1:17:37.060 --> 1:17:40.200 is back. Jaden was excellent as a scrambler as well. 1:17:40.240 --> 1:17:42.140 I know that the Niners have the linebackers to be 1:17:42.160 --> 1:17:44.650 able to handle that, but I just, again, like I'm 1:17:44.850 --> 1:17:46.210 taking the Niners in this game. 1:17:46.229 --> 1:17:49.370 It was just for whatever reason, I was just like, ah, 1:17:50.370 --> 1:17:50.889 I don't know. 1:17:50.970 --> 1:17:53.590 Like I could, I could see Jaden playing Superman and 1:17:53.630 --> 1:17:54.950 almost being like, you know what? 1:17:55.490 --> 1:17:56.060 Screw it. 1:17:56.100 --> 1:17:58.679 Y'all I'm throwing caution to win. We got to start 1:17:58.700 --> 1:18:02.439 winning football games. And, um, I guess it kind of 1:18:02.460 --> 1:18:04.280 has to start this week for them, especially with them 1:18:04.340 --> 1:18:07.610 being pissed off with how last week ended. So I'm 1:18:07.630 --> 1:18:09.930 going to go with the Niners, but I got them 1:18:09.950 --> 1:18:12.790 at three spots. So I'm giving Washington and maybe that desperation. 1:18:12.810 --> 1:18:14.170 I think that might be a theme of some of 1:18:14.210 --> 1:18:16.440 my picks here is some of the desperation that some 1:18:16.460 --> 1:18:18.380 of these teams might have in why I think that 1:18:18.400 --> 1:18:19.920 they're going to get a victory. Last game is the 1:18:19.979 --> 1:18:23.220 Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers. Dallas coming off 1:18:23.260 --> 1:18:25.860 of a major letdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 1:18:25.880 --> 1:18:30.280 Thursday night football. Packers coming off of a red-hot game 1:18:30.320 --> 1:18:36.330 where they defeated the Chicago Bears by letting Jordan Love just, man, throw. 1:18:36.110 --> 1:18:38.229 It all over the yard, especially deep down the field. 1:18:38.729 --> 1:18:41.550 Do the Cowboys have what it takes to limit Jordan 1:18:41.590 --> 1:18:43.650 Love and what he wants to do with those deep passes? 1:18:43.670 --> 1:18:45.170 Who do you got winning this one, and where is 1:18:45.210 --> 1:18:46.080 it in the confidence for you? 1:18:47.130 --> 1:18:49.130 This is the one game of the week, and I 1:18:49.170 --> 1:18:50.979 seem to have one of these. every single week, where 1:18:51.020 --> 1:18:52.560 I just throw my hands up and say, I got 1:18:52.600 --> 1:18:53.040 no idea. 1:18:55.740 --> 1:18:57.910 We got no idea which version of the teams is 1:18:57.930 --> 1:18:58.450 going to show up. 1:18:58.450 --> 1:19:02.610 Yes, yes. I have no clue what we're going to 1:19:02.650 --> 1:19:05.080 get from week to week with these teams. And now 1:19:05.120 --> 1:19:08.000 that Mike Pettin's involved and he's going to have influence 1:19:08.060 --> 1:19:09.700 on this defense, I don't even know what they're going 1:19:09.720 --> 1:19:10.580 to look like defensively. 1:19:10.880 --> 1:19:14.220 Not even effectiveness-wise. Scheme-wise, I don't know what they're going 1:19:14.240 --> 1:19:16.580 to look like. Does he have a little bit of 1:19:16.600 --> 1:19:17.059 an input? 1:19:17.100 --> 1:19:17.980 Like, hey, you know what? 1:19:18.040 --> 1:19:20.780 I'd maybe do a little bit here. Are they basically like, hey, buddy, 1:19:20.820 --> 1:19:23.200 you're basically calling things. He's not basically calling things. But 1:19:23.220 --> 1:19:25.200 you know what I'm saying? We've got to install more 1:19:25.280 --> 1:19:27.660 stuff because whatever we've done on defense has not worked 1:19:27.680 --> 1:19:28.019 to this. 1:19:27.939 --> 1:19:31.300 Point in the season. Once upon a time in Philly, 1:19:31.340 --> 1:19:35.479 where Christian Parker came from, And it was Gannon who 1:19:35.500 --> 1:19:39.000 was the DC. Vic Fangio was a consultant behind the 1:19:39.040 --> 1:19:41.320 scenes in Philly. This was like before he took the 1:19:41.370 --> 1:19:45.530 Miami job. And he had major input on the defense, 1:19:45.670 --> 1:19:47.630 even though he was living across the country over in 1:19:47.670 --> 1:19:50.269 Northern California. But as a consultant, he would roll into 1:19:50.310 --> 1:19:54.350 his office at Stanford every single day and give real 1:19:54.560 --> 1:19:56.519 actionable insights on what they should do. And they were 1:19:56.560 --> 1:20:00.809 really good defense consultants. So I don't know how much 1:20:01.030 --> 1:20:03.630 input he's going to have here, but they didn't announce 1:20:03.650 --> 1:20:07.030 that they hired him for nothing, right? Like clearly he's 1:20:07.050 --> 1:20:09.030 going to be involved. And so I don't know what 1:20:09.050 --> 1:20:11.490 this defense is going to look like. I also don't 1:20:11.530 --> 1:20:13.269 know what the Packers offense is going to look like. 1:20:13.479 --> 1:20:16.580 Is this offensive line terrible? Are they good? We get 1:20:16.640 --> 1:20:19.400 different results from week to week. Maybe they'll settle somewhere 1:20:19.420 --> 1:20:21.320 in the middle, but I don't know what version of 1:20:21.360 --> 1:20:23.220 this Packers offensive line we're going to get either. So, 1:20:24.850 --> 1:20:27.260 It's a battle between two teams that I don't have 1:20:27.300 --> 1:20:30.980 a good read on. When they're at their best, they 1:20:31.020 --> 1:20:33.460 can score on anyone. I'll say that about both of them, really. 1:20:34.380 --> 1:20:37.400 So maybe this is like a 33-31 type of game. 1:20:38.229 --> 1:20:40.530 But it could also very easily be kind of like 1:20:40.570 --> 1:20:44.389 that slop fest we saw against Dallas, where the Cowboys 1:20:44.430 --> 1:20:47.689 just can't get going and they just can't get their 1:20:47.729 --> 1:20:49.880 defense off the field. And we end up with a 1:20:49.910 --> 1:20:54.560 low possession count, low scoring defense. kind of weird to 1:20:54.600 --> 1:20:57.860 watch game. That's like 17, 15 in the fourth quarter. 1:20:57.920 --> 1:21:00.620 It could go either way here. I have no clue. 1:21:01.740 --> 1:21:02.800 I'm taking Dallas. 1:21:03.380 --> 1:21:03.600 Okay. 1:21:03.620 --> 1:21:05.929 I don't feel good about it. Okay. And that's why 1:21:05.970 --> 1:21:06.930 I put it at the two spot. 1:21:07.590 --> 1:21:09.370 I also took Dallas and I put it at the 1:21:09.490 --> 1:21:12.890 one spot. So just very similar reasons of we have 1:21:13.050 --> 1:21:17.130 seen the best and the worst of these teams five 1:21:17.189 --> 1:21:19.670 weeks into the season. And that's such a small sample 1:21:19.729 --> 1:21:23.059 size to see such a strong variance of teams. that 1:21:23.100 --> 1:21:25.450 it's hard to be able to predict what we are 1:21:25.490 --> 1:21:28.010 going to see here. Especially, it might be a little 1:21:28.030 --> 1:21:31.210 bit easier to predict if there wasn't the Mike Patton 1:21:31.250 --> 1:21:36.030 domino in there. But truly, who knows what's going to 1:21:36.070 --> 1:21:38.290 happen in this game. But give me Dallas. I'll take 1:21:38.330 --> 1:21:41.180 the Dallas Cowboys. Those are our 10. 10 up and 1:21:41.180 --> 1:21:43.000 10 down. That's our confidence rankings. 1:21:43.320 --> 1:21:44.559 All right. Very fun show. 1:21:44.660 --> 1:21:47.620 Thank you guys for tuning in. We love to make 1:21:47.640 --> 1:21:50.220 these shows for you. As deep diving as possible. Cover 1:21:50.260 --> 1:21:52.530 as much as we possibly can. Hopefully you guys feel 1:21:52.550 --> 1:21:54.210 that way as well. Shout out to the producers who 1:21:54.229 --> 1:21:56.689 put on this beast of a show every single week 1:21:56.729 --> 1:21:59.090 and all the NGS people who get us so many 1:21:59.150 --> 1:22:02.269 fantastic stats and data points to be able to do 1:22:02.290 --> 1:22:03.830 a lot of really cool stuff on this show. For 1:22:03.870 --> 1:22:05.979 Brett Coleman, I'm Trevor Sykema saying thank you guys so 1:22:05.990 --> 1:22:08.599 much for watching and we'll see you after all the 1:22:08.610 --> 1:22:10.639 week six games on Sunday and we'll see you on Monday. 1:22:11.200 --> 1:22:14.020 Thanks for listening to our week six preview show. Listen 1:22:14.040 --> 1:22:16.960 to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 1:22:16.979 --> 1:22:18.600 wherever you get your podcasts.