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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Eighty seven months in prism sentence for George Santos. Remember

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Speaker 2: there was a time, Joe in Washington where George Santos

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Speaker 2: was like the most scandalous thing we could possibly be

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Speaker 2: talking about, captured all the attention in the headlines. It

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Speaker 2: feels like we have a story like that now at

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Speaker 2: least once a day, if not.

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Speaker 3: That seems a bit quaint at this point of reporters

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Speaker 3: running through hallways trying to get him on the record,

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Speaker 3: doors being slammed. He was speaking pretty existentially from the heart,

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Speaker 3: I guess, to the New York Times, talking about how

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Speaker 3: he came into this world alone and he will deal

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Speaker 3: with this alone.

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Speaker 4: Eighty seven months.

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Speaker 3: That's a pretty remarkable sentence for the former congressman from

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Speaker 3: New York.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and of course we talk a lot less about

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Speaker 2: George Santos these days, not just because he's no longer

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Speaker 2: a member of the House of Representatives, but because other

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Speaker 2: issues have caught the attention of Washington in the world

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Speaker 2: predominantly of course, focused on issues like trade as well

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Speaker 2: as geopolitical conflict, and the President, who likes to see

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Speaker 2: himself as deal maker in chief, trying to make deals

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Speaker 2: on all of these different fronts with trading partners but

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Speaker 2: also with adversaries and allies when it comes to ending

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Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine, for example, and he touched on

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Speaker 2: both when speaking to reporters before his departure for Rome

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Speaker 2: earlier today.

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Speaker 4: I'm getting along very well with your fan.

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Speaker 5: On We're very close to a deal leeting with Puttin

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Speaker 5: right now as we speak, and we.

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Speaker 6: Have a lot of things.

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Speaker 4: Going on, and I think.

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Speaker 1: In the end we're going to end up with a

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Speaker 1: lot of.

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Speaker 5: Good deals, including tariff Dale's and trade deals.

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Speaker 3: This is where we start with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, who

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Speaker 3: is at the White House right now as the President

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Speaker 3: first Lady make their way to Rome.

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Speaker 4: She's on the north lawn with the latest Tyler.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, hey, Joe. Well, one of the themes that we

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Speaker 7: are tracking here, of course, the trade talks. You heard

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Speaker 7: President Trump there say that there has been good progress

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Speaker 7: with Japan, and he also has been talking about how

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Speaker 7: he has been speaking with China's President E Jijing Ping.

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Speaker 7: Caylee mentioned at the top there at the time magazine

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Speaker 7: interview which was released today but actually conducted on Tuesday,

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Speaker 7: where he said that he was called by the Chinese president. Now, however,

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Speaker 7: he didn't give us many details, didn't give us a

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Speaker 7: timeline or what was discussed, and reporters tried to pin

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Speaker 7: him down on it when he was heading out towards

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Speaker 7: Marine One, asking if this call had taken place since

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Speaker 7: his tariff announcement and take a listen to what he

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Speaker 7: had to say here When he was asked.

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Speaker 2: You said, you've spoke with President k Have you spoken

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Speaker 2: to him since the terrans?

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Speaker 5: I don't want to comment on that, but I've spoken

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Speaker 5: to him many times. Yeah, I'll let you know at

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Speaker 5: the appropriate time. Let's say, if we can make a deal.

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Speaker 7: Well, when it comes to a deal, President Trump has

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Speaker 7: reiterated that he thinks that one hundred and forty five

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Speaker 7: percent levy on Chinese goods is very high amounts to

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Speaker 7: a trade in bargo, which has prompted some optimism that

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Speaker 7: that rate could come down in that Time magazine interview.

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Speaker 7: He did say that he knew what the rate was

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Speaker 7: that Beijing would be comfortable with, and has previously floated

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Speaker 7: that in the next two to three weeks we could

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Speaker 7: actually see a revised rate. It does come on the

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Speaker 7: heels of some Bloomberg News reporting earlier today that China

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Speaker 7: is potentially getting ready to exempt some US goods from tariffs.

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Speaker 7: This includes particular sectors where Beijing is more import reliance,

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Speaker 7: such as medical equipment or industrial chemicals that are used

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Speaker 7: to make things like plastics or cooling agents or reporting

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Speaker 7: also indicates that potentially a plane leases could be exempt

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Speaker 7: from tariffs too, So sort of a wide range here

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Speaker 7: as Beijing tries to shore up its own support for

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Speaker 7: its economy amid what has become a tip for trade war.

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Speaker 7: But Joe and Kelly sources familiar do caution Bloomberg News

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Speaker 7: that everything is still very much in flux as we

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Speaker 7: try to piece together where trade talks are really headed.

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Speaker 2: Well, and that goes not just for China, but trade

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Speaker 2: negotiations with our dozens of trading partners. As we're still

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Speaker 2: looking for any deal to emerge. Tyler, do we have

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Speaker 2: a sensus to whether or not even just within the timeframe.

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Speaker 2: The President has a lot in himself for this trip

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Speaker 2: to Rome that any conversations with European leaders, for example,

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Speaker 2: on trade will be happening well.

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Speaker 7: He was asked directly that Kylie whether or not he

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Speaker 7: would be taking meetings. He did say he was, but

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Speaker 7: of course this is a very short timeline. Here really

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Speaker 7: remains to be seen if there will be any sort

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Speaker 7: of policides when it comes to this. There are, of

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Speaker 7: course those countries that we know that have been getting

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Speaker 7: priority when it does come to these talks with Taragery

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Speaker 7: Secretary Scott Besson in the Oval Office yesterday saying that

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Speaker 7: South Korea the timeline for a potential trade deal with

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Speaker 7: them is actually faster than he intended. He said that

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Speaker 7: we could see an agreement of understanding, as he called it,

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Speaker 7: with the technical details worked out as soon as next week.

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Speaker 7: That sort of falls in line with some rhetoric that

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Speaker 7: we've heard for other trading partners that have been prioritized,

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Speaker 7: including Japan and also importantly India. After Vice President Jade

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Speaker 7: Vance visited the country over the weekend, we had to

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Speaker 7: read out from the USTR saying that they had finalized

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Speaker 7: a roadmap towards an agreement. That's sort of what we

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Speaker 7: have been hearing from this administration that we're going to

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Speaker 7: start to see these frames works rolled out as this

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Speaker 7: White House really tries to show that they are making

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Speaker 7: progress on these deals, all right, with one hundred day

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Speaker 7: mark looming next week. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live at the

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Speaker 7: White House for us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much. And it does sound, Joe that

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Speaker 2: for all of the optimism that markets seem to a founder,

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Speaker 2: at the very least the sigh of relief they seem

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Speaker 2: to be breathing this week, that so far we haven't

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Speaker 2: gotten much more material than maybe a softening of rhetoric

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Speaker 2: on the margins and also agreement to eventually agree to something,

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Speaker 2: but not actually those final ink deals.

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Speaker 3: Far from this kind of goes back to Tuesday. We're

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Speaker 3: still trading off of the de escalate remarking away from

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Speaker 3: Scott Bessen, which was behind closed doors. And I know

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Speaker 3: that the President has suggested maybe a drive to be

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Speaker 3: more kind in negotiations with China, but it is interesting

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Speaker 3: to see a bit under the market here with very

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Speaker 3: little fact to base it on. Maybe there's some bottom

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Speaker 3: feeding going on. We'll know more about this after it happens.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and we'll hopefully know more about it after

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Speaker 2: speaking to Christopher Smart about it. He's with us here

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Speaker 2: in our Washington, d C. Studio, managing partner in our

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Speaker 2: Growth Group and former special Assistant to the President in

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Speaker 2: international economics during the Obama administration, here with us on

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Speaker 2: balance of Power. Good to see you. Thank you for

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Speaker 2: coming in. I wonder, as you consider the kind of

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Speaker 2: tone shift we have seen this week, or sentiment shift

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Speaker 2: at the very least, if you think there's enough materially

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Speaker 2: fundamentally that has changed here to back that up.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think the bouncing in the market that we've

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Speaker 8: seen is a reflection of just how much investors, I think,

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Speaker 8: are grasping at any sign of slightly more certainty where

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Speaker 8: we're headed, whether it's on tariffs, whether it's on negotiations.

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Speaker 8: You know, if the fact, as you were pointing out, Joe,

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Speaker 8: that an announcement of an intention to make an agreement

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Speaker 8: about a memory of an understanding moves the market, that's

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Speaker 8: how bad things are. I wasn't actually in this meeting

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Speaker 8: when Secretary of Beston talked about de escalation talked about

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Speaker 8: the need for one side to climb down. I think

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Speaker 8: he didn't assume that it was going to be the

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Speaker 8: United States climbing down. But I think investors mostly expect

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Speaker 8: that if we're going to have some agreement this quickly.

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Speaker 8: These are trade agreements that are very complicated and take

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Speaker 8: months and years to really negotiate and hammer out. But

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Speaker 8: if we're going to come down, if we're going to

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Speaker 8: strike a deal very quickly, it means it's going to

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Speaker 8: be something of less substance.

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Speaker 4: Wow.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's really interesting because the President said, you know,

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Speaker 3: with the idea of a trade deal as best and

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Speaker 3: himself suggest it could take two or three years. The

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Speaker 3: President said we could have new rates, new tariff rates

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Speaker 3: for China in two to three weeks. Is that the

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Speaker 3: US climbing down? And does that make you feel more hopeful?

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Speaker 6: Well? I would.

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Speaker 8: I don't want to contradict the President, but it does

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Speaker 8: seem hard to believe that that's what we're going to

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Speaker 8: be doing. The confusion in the market right now is

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Speaker 8: nobody expects that one hundred and forty five percent tariffs

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Speaker 8: can be permanent. And I think worth hearing that, and

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Speaker 8: that was reassuring to people because it's just not sustainable.

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Speaker 4: It is an.

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Speaker 8: Embargo effectively, as Secretary Besson said, But the real question

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Speaker 8: is will we have more certainty on the other side

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Speaker 8: of things? And you know, there is a world in

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Speaker 8: which you look through the fall and there's a budget deal,

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Speaker 8: the debt limit is behind us, and we have half

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Speaker 8: a dozen of these framework agreements in place, and so

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Speaker 8: you know what kind of range we're dealing with, and

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Speaker 8: that's a much better world. But the question is is

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Speaker 8: that the new steady state or do new things get

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Speaker 8: put on the table?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 2: And as you suggest this idea that no one thinks

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Speaker 2: we're going to stay at one hundred and forty five

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Speaker 2: percent forever, I wonder how much can change though, even

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Speaker 2: if that no longer remains the rate in terms of

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Speaker 2: our fundamental relationship with China. Knowing already there was an

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Speaker 2: effort to diversify supply chains away from China because of

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Speaker 2: the scars of the pandemic, you have news today Apple

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Speaker 2: is going to look for all of the iPhones it

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Speaker 2: sells in the US to be made in India by

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Speaker 2: the end of next year. Changes are already underway. Can

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Speaker 2: we ever really revert back to any kind of at

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Speaker 2: least what was the norm.

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Speaker 8: No, I think the old norms have been broken, and

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Speaker 8: I think we are moving into a new kind of arrangement.

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Speaker 8: What that really looks like in the end is hard

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Speaker 8: to predict, but I think it is, you know, a

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Speaker 8: decoupling of sorts. We used to tell companies that you

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Speaker 8: need a China plus strategy, so you should build a

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Speaker 8: factory in China and then one outside of China. I

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Speaker 8: think companies are now looking at a US plus one

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Speaker 8: strategy where they have to you know, the India deal.

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Speaker 8: I'm sorry, the India announcement at Apple is to bring

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Speaker 8: product into the US from India rather than from China.

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Speaker 3: Well, this is all happening with financial ministers and leaders

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Speaker 3: from around the world coming to Washington for the Spring

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Speaker 3: meetings of IMF World Bank.

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Speaker 4: This is a peculiar moment for all of this to

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Speaker 4: be unfolding.

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Speaker 3: We're talking about what Scott Besson said behind closed doors

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Speaker 3: this week. There's a lot of conversations happening behind closed doors,

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Speaker 3: and I wonder what you can share with us. What

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Speaker 3: are you hearing that didn't get into the front page

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Speaker 3: or onto the Bloomberg terminal when it comes to concern

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Speaker 3: when it comes to uncertainty. What is the general feeling

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Speaker 3: with world leaders this week?

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Speaker 8: Well, I think the measure of how grim things are

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Speaker 8: is that the session that I was in on the

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Speaker 8: Middle East is the most optimistic that we might have

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Speaker 8: an Iran deal. And that could really go a long

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Speaker 8: way to imagine saying that months ago. But it gives

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Speaker 8: you a sense of the uncertain about everything else. Yeah,

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Speaker 8: whether it's Russia or China, or US policy or indeed,

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Speaker 8: a lot of our foreign friends are really looking at

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Speaker 8: what's happening in the court system, what's happening in the

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Speaker 8: regulatory system. Lots of questions about the FED until the

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Speaker 8: President backed off on that, and a real sense of

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Speaker 8: is the United States the same business model that we've

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Speaker 8: all come to love and invest in over the last

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Speaker 8: several decades. Those things don't change overnight. It takes years

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Speaker 8: for things to change dramatically. But the things that made

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Speaker 8: the US so consistently innovative, dynamic, and able to grow

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Speaker 8: so quickly are people are questioning.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad you raised the FED too, because as we

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Speaker 2: consider what changed this week, we did start the week

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Speaker 2: not knowing if the President intended to fire the FED chair,

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Speaker 2: and then he said he had no intention, never had

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Speaker 2: any intention of that. So maybe clarity on that issue

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Speaker 2: at least for now, Christopher, But he still maintains, even

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Speaker 2: if he's not going to try to oust Pale, that

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Speaker 2: he thinks Palell needs to move now, that he risks

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Speaker 2: being too late. And I wonder what the economic picture

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Speaker 2: you are seeing if you think there might actually be

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Speaker 2: some merit in that argument that monetary policy simply isn't

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Speaker 2: going to be able to react quickly enough to whatever

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Speaker 2: it is we're heading into.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think my view, and I think the view

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Speaker 8: of a lot of investors that I talk to, is

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Speaker 8: that the best thing you can do right now is

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Speaker 8: to sit tight. You probably want to you certainly don't

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Speaker 8: want to think about raising rates right now, but you

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Speaker 8: want to know what where that level where the steady

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Speaker 8: state is going to settle. I mean, if you could

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Speaker 8: sort of start knowing where tariffs will be and start

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Speaker 8: modeling that and sort of thinking through where that will

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Speaker 8: feed through to either inflation or slow in growth, that's

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Speaker 8: one thing to do, but you don't know where that's

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Speaker 8: going to settle, and the President isn't helping things unfortunately.

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Speaker 3: What it do damage to the fed's image if we

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Speaker 3: did get a cut right now, I think, in a way,

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Speaker 3: what if Ja Pallis said, okay, twenty five bases stop calling.

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Speaker 4: What would be the market reaction.

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Speaker 8: I think it would probably be positive for a day

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Speaker 8: and a half, but overall negatived and trust I think

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Speaker 8: it starts to undermine the Fed's credibility, because you know,

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Speaker 8: we've had the FED. It's been remarkable through all of

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Speaker 8: our political discord. I don't think anybody credibly attacks the

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Speaker 8: FED for being politically motivated one way or the other

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Speaker 8: over the last several years. The unfortunate thing right now

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Speaker 8: is whoever is nominated to replace j.

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Speaker 4: Powell next year is going.

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Speaker 8: To come with a sort of a shadow of suspicion

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Speaker 8: of what kind of a deal did they did they

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Speaker 8: strike to get the job?

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Speaker 4: Not a shadow chair, which we've talked about before.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's certainly an idea that has been floated at

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Speaker 2: this table by the now Treasury Secretary of stant actually

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Speaker 2: of all people, to this notion of credibility. Though it's

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Speaker 2: one thing to consider the Fed's credibility, it's another thing

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Speaker 2: to consider just the credibility of the United States. We

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Speaker 2: have a new story out on the terminal today looking

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Speaker 2: at the dollar could be the worst first one hundred

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Speaker 2: days the dollar is seen since the Nixon administration. We

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Speaker 2: all have been paying attention to what's been happening in

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Speaker 2: the bond market, and we haven't even really started the

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Speaker 2: debt ceiling fight yet, Christopher, which we have to look

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Speaker 2: forward to in the next few months. Do you see

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Speaker 2: a serious risk of an undermining of the credit worthiness

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Speaker 2: of the United States or the view of credit worthiness

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Speaker 2: of full faith and credit.

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Speaker 8: Well, as you know, credit worthiness is incremental and goes

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Speaker 8: their shades of gray. I don't think things are you know,

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Speaker 8: I don't think things are about to fall apart. I

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Speaker 8: think the dollar is still the royals reserve currency for

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Speaker 8: a long time, given the lack of alternatives.

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Speaker 4: But we clearly haven't done ourselves any good.

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Speaker 8: And it is one of those things on the margin

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Speaker 8: where I think investors start looking at the US business model,

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Speaker 8: they go back. Portfolio managers are going back to meet

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Speaker 8: with their investment committees over the next few months, and

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Speaker 8: they're going to say, what's our exposure to the US

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Speaker 8: sixty seventy percent, Let's just take that down five or

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Speaker 8: ten for now it's going to be a brave portfolio

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Speaker 8: manager who goes to his credit committee and says, let's

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Speaker 8: just double down on the US because we think they've

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Speaker 8: got something good going on right now.

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Speaker 3: I wonder your thoughts in our remaining couple of minutes

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Speaker 3: here on a series of unilateral deals emerging here we're

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Speaker 3: talking frameworks.

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Speaker 4: Let's say they do emerge as deals.

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Speaker 3: This seems to be a best case scenario for Wall

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Speaker 3: Street right now, but it's a pretty darn confusing mess

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Speaker 3: to consider how this White House could negotiate them all simultaneously,

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Speaker 3: and how they would all potentially argue with each other

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Speaker 3: in the end. Do you worry about that patchwork being

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Speaker 3: the final product here?

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Speaker 8: I think it's a big worry right now. I guess

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Speaker 8: the glib answer to your question is maybe.

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Speaker 4: AI will help them negotiate all of you. Maybe, but

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Speaker 4: I think it is.

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Speaker 8: I mean, actually that's probably the encouraging outcome, because as

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Speaker 8: long as you don't have a single principle you have

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Speaker 8: to apply to all of your negotiating partners, you can

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Speaker 8: cut separate deals and then investors can understand what the

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Speaker 8: rules will be. But it is certainly a different framework

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Speaker 8: and it's not the more integrated, free or flowing goods

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Speaker 8: and financial.

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Speaker 4: Rewriting of supply chain.

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Speaker 8: That's the rewriting the supply chains, and it's a shifting

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Speaker 8: of the system and the rules we've.

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Speaker 4: Been used to since the end of the Cold War.

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Speaker 3: Well remarkable, Christopher Smart on IMF week with us here

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Speaker 3: in Washington. It's a treat to have you with us.

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Speaker 3: It's great to be here at the desk. I hope

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Speaker 3: we can do this again. Sometimes it's behind the scenes

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Speaker 3: and some pretty interesting conversations, including the one we just

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Speaker 3: had here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew alongside

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Speaker 3: Kaylee Lines in Washington. We're just getting started. We have

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Speaker 3: to assemble our panel next. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno

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Speaker 3: are with us on another busy day in Washington with

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Speaker 3: their eyes on Rome. Four am for the papal funeral tomorrow,

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Speaker 3: and the President looks like is coming straight back.

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Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, that is what's on the schedule. Of course,

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Speaker 2: it'll be four am for us. It will be later

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Speaker 2: on more appropriate time of the morning, but still only

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Speaker 2: I think eight hours after the President is scheduled to

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Speaker 2: land in Europe. So it is a tight turnaround. Indeed,

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Speaker 2: we'll have more ahead here. On Bloomberg TV Radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Fourth update in a row, could actually turn out to

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Speaker 2: be a pretty good week four risk assets, even in

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Speaker 2: the face of still a lot of questions remaining on

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Speaker 2: the fate of US trade policy and of trade negotiations.

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Speaker 2: We've heard from President Trump a few times about this today,

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Speaker 2: including as of course he boarded or it was heading

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Speaker 2: to Rome. He just spoke with reporters on Air Force one,

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Speaker 2: once again saying that countries have been unfair to the

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Speaker 2: US when it comes to trade. But he also spent

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Speaker 2: a good deal of time talking with Time magazine about

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Speaker 2: his trade policy, suggesting in this interview, which took place

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Speaker 2: a few days ago on April twenty second, that there's

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Speaker 2: been some two hundred trade deals that he's done, though

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Speaker 2: none have been announced, but he suggests this whole thing

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Speaker 2: could be wrapped up in three to four weeks.

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Speaker 4: A lot of countries.

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Speaker 2: It is a lot.

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Speaker 3: He also said that China's President Xi Jimping has called

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Speaker 3: him yes, and that his administration is in active talks

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Speaker 3: with Chinese to strike a deal, and we've talked about this,

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Speaker 3: that he was asked about this a couple times this week.

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Speaker 3: Lutnik and other senior administration officials referring to the Commerce

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Speaker 3: Secretary Howard Lutnik confirmed the talks, which Beijing disputes. So

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Speaker 3: we're still not actually sure if they're on the phone call.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we heard the President once again this morning saying

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Speaker 2: he's talked to she multiple times, but he wouldn't say when,

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Speaker 2: wouldn't say if it was since the implementation of these tariffs.

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Speaker 2: We do know they did speak a few days ahead

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Speaker 2: of his inauguration back in January, but there has been

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Speaker 2: no confirmation of a phone call since then.

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Speaker 3: We'll play this to the panel and get their thoughts

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Speaker 3: on this, because we are at an interesting moment here

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Speaker 3: with the President airborne on his way to Rome, lawmakers

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Speaker 3: still at home, and our chance to talk about some

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Speaker 3: important issues with our panel. Rick Davis is here, a

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Speaker 3: Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside our

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Speaker 3: democratic strategist Genie Shanzino, political science professor at Iona University.

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Speaker 4: It's great to see you both here. Genie.

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Speaker 3: I've been asking since Donald Trump said on the Oval

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Speaker 3: Office that they quote unquote were meeting and he wasn't

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Speaker 3: going to suggest or reveal he said who they were

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Speaker 3: or was, does it matter at what level these talks

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Speaker 3: are happening.

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Speaker 9: Well, it sure does, you know. I mean, it's not

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Speaker 9: a great day for the United States when we have

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Speaker 9: to have our pre isn't corrected by the Chinese Foreign

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Speaker 9: Ministry saying, you know, don't exaggerate, tell the truth, be clear,

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Speaker 9: and that's essentially what we're getting. I mean, you just

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Speaker 9: mentioned the two hundred deals. We don't know how that

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Speaker 9: could be with less than that many countries in the world.

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Speaker 9: But apparently he's talking about something else. So you know,

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Speaker 9: this is typical Donald Trump. He's excited about his first

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Speaker 9: hundred days overstating numbers. And the fact is people are

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Speaker 9: really dependent for their lives on the truth of many

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Speaker 9: of these things, and so these overstatements become sort of

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Speaker 9: silly in a way, but also problematic in a serious.

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Speaker 2: Way well and Rick, when we consider that China is

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Speaker 2: openly contesting the suggestions by President Trump that negotiations are happening,

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Speaker 2: putting it out there for the world to see, does

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Speaker 2: that do anything to undermined undermine the President's credibility knowing

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Speaker 2: that we often sometimes approach with skepticism certain characterization he

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Speaker 2: makes or statements that he makes.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, look, I mean we've learned for a long time

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Speaker 10: that you have to take everything that Donald Trump tells

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Speaker 10: you with a grain of salt.

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Speaker 11: Right.

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Speaker 10: He even admits to hyperbole on virtually every issue that

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Speaker 10: he ever comes out of his mouth. So it's pretty

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Speaker 10: dark days when you have to rely on China, known

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Speaker 10: for its propaganda and use of distraction as a foreign

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Speaker 10: policy tool, to get the straight dope. I don't trust

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Speaker 10: either one of them. I mean, you know, I'll believe

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Speaker 10: it when I see it, and I think in this case,

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Speaker 10: to you know, try to follow the spin, you know.

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Speaker 10: I mean, we went from ninety deals in ninety days

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Speaker 10: to one hundred and twenty five countries have terrace on him,

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Speaker 10: to two hundred deals are going to be announced. I mean,

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Speaker 10: I just want to know who's negotiating with the penguins

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Speaker 10: on Hurd Island, because that's what I'm watching for real success.

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Speaker 3: That's true, they are still facing pretty high tariffs. He

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Speaker 3: got into a national security in geopolitics.

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Speaker 4: In this interview.

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Speaker 3: They talked for about an hour, and again Kayley mentions

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Speaker 3: this took place on April twenty second. Geni talked about

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Speaker 3: Ukraine and blamed Kiev for starting the war. Quote, I

442
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 3: think what caused the war to start was when they

443
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 3: started talking about joining NATO unquote. The negotiated pece he

444
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 3: is pursuing would of course give Ladim refruitin some twenty

445
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 3: percent of Ukrainian territory. As Time magazine points out, the

446
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:36,719
Speaker 3: president said, quote crimea will stay with Russia unquote. What

447
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 3: do you make of these comments to a publication in

448
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 3: the throes of peace talks.

449
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean it's a sad moment for the United

450
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 9: States and for democracy around the world that we have

451
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 9: now a president in office. I give him credit, by

452
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 9: the way, for trying to negotiate a deal, but not

453
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 9: just that he's talking about it, but that he is

454
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 9: blaming a sovereign country been invaded. And you look at

455
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 9: those horrific pictures from the last seventy two hours of

456
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:10,479
Speaker 9: the absolute violence that Russia has, you know, over the

457
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,239
Speaker 9: air and on the ground in Kiev, on you know,

458
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 9: in the heart of Europe. And to have an American president,

459
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 9: the leading democracy in the world, say crimea is gone

460
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 9: and to blame the victim is just utterly appalling. But

461
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 9: it's in keeping with so much in this conversation that

462
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 9: is stunning. I mean, they ask him at one point

463
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 9: about a quote from John Adams, does he believe we

464
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,479
Speaker 9: are a government of laws and not of men? And

465
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 9: he says no, I wouldn't agree to that one hundred percent.

466
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 9: And he goes on to talk about why that is.

467
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 9: You know, this is the president we're dealing with, and

468
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 9: he's hiding behind the fact that he ran on these things.

469
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 9: But he is also, if you look at the polls,

470
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 9: losing support on a lot of what he's pursuing here.

471
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: Well, and when we consider the geopolitical part of this interview, Rick,

472
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 2: when he was talking about a deal with Ukraine, the

473
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 2: journalist questioned him on his repeated insistence on the campaign

474
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 2: trail that he could end the war in a day,

475
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 2: and he suggested in his answer that he was just

476
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 2: exaggerating that no one should have expected him to end

477
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 2: the war in the day in a day to get

478
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 2: back to kind of what we were discussing about his

479
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 2: rhetoric here, But is that also an admission that this

480
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 2: particular negotiation with Steve Witkoff dispatched again to the Kremlin

481
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: today to meet with Putin is much harder than he

482
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: thought walking in.

483
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 10: Yeah. Look, I mean I think Donald Trump, whether you

484
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 10: think it's a superpower or a significant problem, simplifies every

485
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 10: complicated world problem into the basic elements that he wants

486
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 10: to talk about. And so from his perspective, why in

487
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 10: the world would anybody want to continue killing each other

488
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 10: with no apparent success on either side. So in his mind,

489
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 10: you know, offer a deal that stops the killing, which

490
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 10: he must have repeated a thousand times on the campaign trail,

491
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 10: and everyone's going to take that deal. It is a

492
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 10: surprise to him. I have no doubt that there are

493
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 10: more intransient issues than life and death on the front

494
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 10: lines of Ukraine and Russia at work here. I think

495
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 10: he's found the same thing. We've kind of quit talking

496
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 10: about it, but same thing applies to piece in Gaza.

497
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 10: He's made many statements along the campaign trail, and since

498
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 10: president he was going to wrap that up in no time.

499
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 10: Nobody's going to oppose his will, and it's only gotten

500
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 10: worse there. He told Putin to stop attacks. Yesterday and

501
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 10: overnight we had more suicide drone attacks launched from Russia

502
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 10: onto Ukraine. I mean, he needs to start to be

503
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 10: concerned that by making these declarations to ordering heads of

504
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 10: state around the world around that somehow he's going to

505
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 10: start losing credibility if they ignore him. And I think

506
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 10: that that is a concern for the prestige of the

507
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 10: United States, our power abroad, and how foreign leaders will

508
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,239
Speaker 10: approach us in the future when we really do need

509
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 10: to solve intractable problems.

510
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, Rick mentions Gaza Genie, the president's old time magazine,

511
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia will go into the Abraham Accords. That will happen.

512
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 3: He went on to say something really interesting. Last time

513
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 3: I was fighting for survival, he said, this time, I'm

514
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 3: fighting for the world. This is a man with a

515
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 3: different motivation than in the first term. Isn't it a

516
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 3: different purpose?

517
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 11: Yeah?

518
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 9: You know, I think actually his purpose is the same.

519
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 9: I mean, this is somebody who believes in executive power.

520
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 9: He is somebody who believes that he should have more

521
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 9: of it constitutionally, and if not, he's going to do

522
00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 9: everything Kim to take it. What I think has change

523
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 9: hinged in this Journald Trump two point zero is the

524
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 9: people around him and the fact that they had four

525
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 9: years to make these plans. You know, we're going to

526
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 9: use a.

527
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

528
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Coarclay,

529
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

530
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

531
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

532
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 9: I think it's going to get harder as we go on.

533
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 9: And if I could say, I think one thing he

534
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 9: gets credit for which Democrats should learn from is announcing

535
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 9: he's going to talk to Jeff Goldberg from the Atlantic yesterday.

536
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 9: You know, somebody who famously will talk to anybody at

537
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 9: any time. He's got to come right over to Bloomberg

538
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 9: and talk to you guys. And that is one thing

539
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 9: democrats learned from. Talk to everybody, because he says, you know,

540
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 9: I'll just try to change their minds. They're going to

541
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 9: write about me. I'll go into the lions Den and

542
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,439
Speaker 9: Democrats have to learn from that. It's one mark of

543
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 9: what a good politician he is. But I don't think

544
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 9: he's proven to be as good as a policymaker or

545
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 9: a governor.

546
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: Rick, we have less than a minute left here, but

547
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: when asked about the expansion of executive power, the President

548
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 2: repeatedly suggested in this interview, he's just doing what he

549
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 2: was elected to do. Is he necessarily wrong on that?

550
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 1: Yeah?

551
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 10: I think his point that he's just making good on

552
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 10: these campaign promises is not wrong. He talked about most

553
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 10: of the things that he's doing, and at the time

554
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 10: we kept saying, Wow, what a crazy idea that is.

555
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 2: And yet here we are, Rick Davis and Genie Schanzano

556
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,120
Speaker 2: our political panel, joining us throughout all of it as

557
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 2: we approach the one hundred day mark, and of course

558
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 2: on this Friday, thank you for joining us here on

559
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 2: Balance of Power, and we'll dig more into the war

560
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 2: in Ukraine and the efforts to end it next. Right

561
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg TV and Tredia.

562
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

563
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's durn

564
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: on apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

565
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

566
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

567
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 3: With headlines coming from Air Force One. President Trump is

568
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 3: on his way to Rome right now for the papal

569
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 3: funeral tomorrow. In just crossing the terminal with tariffs in mind,

570
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 3: we've talked a lot this hour about tariffs and China, Kaylee.

571
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 3: The President says he won't drop China tariffs unless they

572
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 3: give us something, as the quote opening up China would

573
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 3: be a big win. He says, markets are adjusting to tariffs.

574
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 3: So we're going to be talking with Mara Rudman about

575
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 3: the standoff with China and other trading partners when it

576
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 3: comes to tariffs, the impact on the economy and the markets.

577
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: But it does seem like Wall Street is feeling a

578
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 3: lot better about things today than they were on Monday.

579
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 2: Well, and certainly Romaine Bostik knows that well, co host

580
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg The Globes, who happens to be here in

581
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 2: Washington today and is joining us now in studio remain.

582
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 2: When the President says markets are adjusting to tariffs, is

583
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 2: it an adjustment we have seen this week? Is that

584
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 2: how you would characterize it.

585
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 12: I'm not sure they're adjusting to tariffs, but they are

586
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 12: adjusting to the messaging. And I mean you talk about

587
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 12: how this week has kind of been bookended, right, I mean,

588
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 12: you had some relatively reassuring comments out of Scott Bessend

589
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 12: down here in the imf IF meetings that seemed to

590
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 12: actually sue the market the idea that maybe there is

591
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 12: going to be a little bit more of a slow

592
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 12: walk on some of this stuff and more accommodation for

593
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 12: Wall Street and their concerns, for Corporate America and their concerns.

594
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 12: But then, of course, as you get towards the end

595
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 12: of the week, you start to get additional comments like this,

596
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 12: what is the relationship with China right now?

597
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 6: What are negotiations like?

598
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 12: You know, you get these comments from China basically say hey,

599
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 12: we're not going to do anything until you show us

600
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 12: more respect. So if you're a trader or even a

601
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 12: long term investor, do you adjust right now?

602
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 4: Right? Well, that's the question. I said. I can't believe

603
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 4: we got you to come back down here waiting to

604
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 4: the spot.

605
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 12: This is this is a moment, you know, and I

606
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 12: hear congresses back next week too.

607
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 4: That's true, and that you're going to get out of here.

608
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 6: Just that's supposed to be the good part for the market.

609
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 6: And Kay, well, yeah, exactly. The budget.

610
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 4: Think about that.

611
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: When you just said the connection, the influence that Washington

612
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: is having on Wall Street, it's not isolated to the

613
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: tariff conversation. We're going to get actually into deeper waters

614
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: with reconciliation and the debt ceiling. What's the market do

615
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 3: we good? Then retrace our lows and freak out all

616
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 3: over again.

617
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 12: So I spoke with the analyst yesterday, so right now

618
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 12: they're kind of looking towards late May, saying that, look,

619
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 12: if we get to Memorial Day and we start to

620
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 12: either see a deal in Congress or at least enough

621
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 12: progress towards a deal, that could be a big upside

622
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 12: catalyst for the market.

623
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 4: Yeah.

624
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 12: Conversely, if we don't see evidence of that, he's saying

625
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 12: that that could be the pillar, because you have a

626
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 12: market right now long term that is betting that all

627
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 12: of the short term pain that we've seen over the

628
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 12: last months, that that can maybe be remedied if we

629
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 12: do get more pro growth, pro business tax friendly policies

630
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 12: out of the White House and Congress over the next

631
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 12: few months.

632
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: The question I continually have about that, though, is if

633
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 2: largely most of this policy is going to be an

634
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 2: extension of existing policy, where is that stimulus supposed to

635
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: kick in.

636
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 12: Really, I'm not sure, and I'm not sure there is

637
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 12: economic stimulus. But if you pay attention to earnings, a

638
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 12: lot of these companies have found ways to navigate so far,

639
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 12: not necessarily on top line revenue growth. If you look

640
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 12: at analy assessments revenue growth for the S ANDP as

641
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 12: a hole, it's basically going to be flat, but you

642
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 12: are seeing strength on the bottom line, so a lot

643
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 12: of cost cutting, productivity improvements, things like that. That might

644
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 12: be the saving grace for corporate America, which then becomes

645
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 12: a saving grace potentially for the markets, and maybe that

646
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 12: feeds into the broader economy.

647
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: It's been watching gold sync up a little bit with

648
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 3: bitcoin recently. When we talk to you, we tend to

649
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 3: hit on these after the bell. I want you to

650
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: share with our viewers and listeners. This is going to

651
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 3: seem rope for you, but to share with our viewers

652
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 3: and listeners how you scope the market What are the

653
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 3: six things that you look at to find out the

654
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 3: state that the market is in right now.

655
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 12: Well, obviously everything going on in FX, so pay attention

656
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 12: to the dollar, particularly the correlations with the Canadian, the Mexican,

657
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 12: as well as the European currencies, particularly the Swiss frank.

658
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 6: The other thing is the swaps market.

659
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 12: It gets a little esoteric, but these are the basically

660
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 12: the traders who are out there determining where they think

661
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 12: the next rate cuts will be, where they think the

662
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 12: next the puck is going on the economy.

663
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 6: They've been out ahead of this a lot.

664
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 12: They've been right both to the upside and the downside

665
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 12: over the last few months in a lot of these situations.

666
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,239
Speaker 12: So those are probably the two primary areas. The other thing,

667
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 12: and I really stress this a lot, is pay attention

668
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 12: to what these CEOs say over the next few couple

669
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 12: of weeks. In corporate America, one hundred and eighty companies

670
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 12: reporting next week, and it's the biggies, you know, the Amazons,

671
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 12: Microsoft's gms of the world. What happened last quarter is irrelevant,

672
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 12: but what they say about the quarters going forward, or

673
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 12: if they say anything at all, you might find more

674
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 12: insight from that than you do the actual hard data.

675
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, we're always watching those earnings calls, especially for

676
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: tech companies that the President says remain he's willing to

677
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 2: be flexible with. He's talking to Tim Cook whenever he's

678
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: asked about exemptions. It's a suggestion that he's going to

679
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 2: take that under consideration. Could we see actual light shed

680
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 2: on that, not from the White House but on the

681
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 2: corporate side.

682
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 6: Possibly.

683
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 12: And look, there has been some pretty good reporting from Bloomberg,

684
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 12: from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal about

685
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 12: some of the CEOs that had apparently gotten Trump's ear

686
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 12: There was a lot of talk about the retail ceo

687
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 12: is going to Trump earlier this week and making it

688
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 12: clear that they were going to be hurt.

689
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 6: And you're hearing other industries do that as well.

690
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 4: Fascinating. Romaine Boston in the Flash.

691
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think this first time I've been here.

692
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 4: Is that true? All right? Yeah?

693
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 6: So I get to keep this. Is this like a souvenir?

694
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's just a prop.

695
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 3: By the way, every guest gets to take the microphone

696
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 3: with them. Maybe we'll see on the late edition of

697
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 3: Balance of Power. The Great Roman remain Bostik in the

698
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 3: nation's capital. We've seen it all this week on IMF week.

699
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 3: You never know who's going to show up around here,

700
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 3: including Mara Rudman. We want to get into not only

701
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 3: the debate over teriffs, the geopolitical debate here in Washington

702
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 3: right now as well when it comes to peace in UK.

703
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 3: Steve Whitkoff sat down. It was apparently a three hour

704
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 3: meeting this time with Vladimir Putin. I think they had

705
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 3: six hours the first time around. Almost nobody else was

706
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: in the room, so it's very difficult to have a

707
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 3: sense of where we are in this process. We did

708
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 3: hear though from President Trump in the Oval yesterday about

709
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 3: communications with Russia.

710
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 5: Listen, put in a lot of pressure. You don't know

711
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 5: what pressure I'm putting on Russia.

712
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 4: They're dealing.

713
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 5: You have no idea what pressure I'm putting on Russia.

714
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 5: We're putting a lot of pressure. We're putting a lot

715
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,959
Speaker 5: of pressure on Russia, and Russia knows that, and some

716
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 5: people that are close to it know, or he wouldn't

717
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 5: be talking.

718
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 3: That's where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Mara Rudman,

719
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 3: professor at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, former US

720
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 3: diplomat Mara. I want to start with the meeting today

721
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 3: and Steve Whitkoff making a return appearance in Moscow, sitting

722
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 3: down with Vladimir Putin behind closed doors and no one

723
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 3: else representing the United States aside from an aid from

724
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 3: what we could see in the video here you go,

725
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 3: if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on U

726
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 3: you see him walking into the room, shaking hands with

727
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin and they sit down at this massive white

728
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 3: table without many people around that table. They're getting to

729
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 3: know themselves each other on a personal level. Here, Marrow,

730
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: what does it mean for the path for peace?

731
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 11: Well, it concerns me greatly that they are having one

732
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,280
Speaker 11: on one or close to one on one meetings. Steve

733
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 11: Whitkoff needs whether or not he believes that himself to

734
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 11: have the knowledge and experience of those who have had

735
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 11: to deal with Vladimir Putin over the decades across Republican

736
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 11: and democratic administrations, and he appears to be operating without that.

737
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 11: And the statements he's made publicly are deeply concerning. That

738
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 11: he made prior to this meeting about how he viewed

739
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 11: Vladimir Putin. And you can be sure that Putin very

740
00:34:52,640 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 11: clearly has Witkoff's number, literally, probably in terms of what

741
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 11: we know about the lack of security and operational security

742
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 11: of this administration, but also just in terms of his

743
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 11: profile and what it's going to take to essentially get

744
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,439
Speaker 11: the better of him. So it concerns me deeply.

745
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 9: Well.

746
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: Bloomberg reported yesterday Mara that part of what Witkoff was

747
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: going to present to Putin today were things that the

748
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 2: US would like Russia to agree to in a deal,

749
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 2: including accepting Ukraine have its own military and defense industry.

750
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: But Kurt Vulker, who worked on Ukraine negotiations during the

751
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 2: first Trump administration, was with US on Balance of Power

752
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 2: last night, and he said, the suggestion that this is

753
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,720
Speaker 2: a concession from Russia, which is the invading country here

754
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 2: is a mischaracterization of it. That no such concessions can

755
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 2: really exist. And I wonder if you think about that

756
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 2: in the same way, or do you think the US

757
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: is asking Russia to swallow something that it might not

758
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 2: be willing to otherwise if it wasn't the Trump administration negotiating.

759
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 5: No.

760
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 11: I agree very much with what Kurt Volkler said, and

761
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 11: I would just want to Kur as the kind of

762
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 11: expert that Steve Witkoff and the administration would benefit from hearing,

763
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 11: from listening to in terms of the depth and breadth

764
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 11: of his experience with these actors. And so that is

765
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 11: one of the many things that concerns me. I think

766
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 11: it is obviously critical for Ukraine to keep its military ability,

767
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 11: but the idea that that's a major concession that the

768
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 11: United States is proposing to Russia is just another indication

769
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 11: I think of the in bounce with which the United

770
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 11: States is dealing with Russia and Ukraine in trying to resolve.

771
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 3: This Mara, how do you read this back and forth

772
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 3: over China right now? President Trump suggesting daily communication between

773
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 3: the two sides. He says President she has called him.

774
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 3: Beijing says none of that is true.

775
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 4: What should we take from that?

776
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,919
Speaker 11: I think we can take that neither actor who's making

777
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 11: these proclamations would be the place I'd go to for

778
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 11: truth telling at any point. So it's tough to know

779
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 11: understand what discussions have actually occurred.

780
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 3: I aw, you don't find that the administration in the

781
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 3: White House is more credit worthy, more truthful than the

782
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 3: regime in Beijing.

783
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 11: Sadly, I do not.

784
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 3: I guess that really answers the question about how you

785
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 3: read into this. Do you think that there will be

786
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 3: a meeting between President Trump and she.

787
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 11: I would not be surprised if there was, And I

788
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 11: also don't know if there have been conversations between them

789
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 11: or not. Clearly, China is very comfortable putting out that

790
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 11: there have been no trade negotiations, and President Trump, we know,

791
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 11: is sometimes very loose, I can say charitably with his

792
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:55,720
Speaker 11: characterizations of conversations or the content thereof. President Trump also

793
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 11: said I believe yesterday that he has agreements with two

794
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 11: hunts two hundred different trade agreements and needs one hundred

795
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 11: percent certain on that. And that's a somewhat baffling statement

796
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 11: to make, given that I'd believe there are ninety sets

797
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 11: of negotiations ongoing or contemplated at this point. So reliability

798
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 11: of information is a huge challenge right now on extraordinarily

799
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 11: sensitive issues that go to our economic and national security.

800
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 2: Well, I'd like to ask you about another one of

801
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 2: those sensitive issues or areas, because the President was just

802
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 2: speaking with reporters on Air Force one. Mara'd answered some

803
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 2: questions about Iran specifically, He said the Iran situation is

804
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 2: coming out very well, that he'd rather have a deal

805
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 2: with Iran than the alternative, and he says the deal

806
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 2: is very simple. They can't have a nuclear weapon. Are

807
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 2: you optimistic that there can be an actual deal inked

808
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 2: with Iran? And how close could it look to the

809
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,359
Speaker 2: original deal from the Obama administration.

810
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 11: Yeah?

811
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 7: So.

812
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 11: I President Trump has a history of denigrating agreements and

813
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 11: then make new agreements that very much resemble them. See

814
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 11: NAFTA and then the subsequent agreement with Canada and Mexico

815
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 11: and the JCPOA agreement between Iran and the Europeans and

816
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 11: the United States would be another example of that. I

817
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 11: will say here, I think there are several avenues that

818
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 11: point to potential promising outcomes in terms of these negotiations.

819
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 11: And by promising outcomes, I mean getting a better handle

820
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 11: again on Iran's nuclear activity and forestalling military action against Iran.

821
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 11: I think that's what the Saudis want, That's what other

822
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 11: key players in the region with whom President Trump is

823
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 11: working closely, are looking toward. And I think the question

824
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 11: will be again the skill of the negotiators on both sides.

825
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 11: And here again I'm concerned about the leading role that

826
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 11: Steve Woodkoff has.

827
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 4: It's only got a minute left, Maria.

828
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 3: Fifty heads of state will gather in Rome in the

829
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 3: next twenty four hours for the Pope's funeral. President Trump

830
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 3: will be there. He and the First Lady will essentially

831
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,399
Speaker 3: be leaving as soon as it's done, which means likely

832
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 3: no meeting with President Zelenski.

833
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 4: Is that a missed opportunity.

834
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 11: I think there are several. There are so many opportunities

835
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 11: that have been missed by President Trump. I will say

836
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 11: that I think it's important in terms of him going

837
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,320
Speaker 11: to the funeral of the Pope to honor the memory

838
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 11: of Pope Francis and to focus on that. I'm a

839
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 11: little concerned about the amount that he has been talking

840
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 11: about opportunities for various side meetings, because it's a solemn moment,

841
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 11: and its an important moment to honor the memory of

842
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 11: a man who really has had a tremendous impact and

843
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 11: has a tremendous legacy for the world to respect.

844
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 2: Indeed, mar Rudmand thanks for joining us professor at the

845
00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 2: University of Virginia's Miller Center. Also former US diplomat.

846
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

847
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

848
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

849
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

850
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com