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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Broudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: You made it to the threshold of the weekend, and

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Speaker 2: we have good news. It's Groundhog Day, right, It's supposed

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Speaker 2: to be the same every day, and well, I guess

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Speaker 2: maybe it is.

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Speaker 3: In terms of the data.

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Speaker 2: Remember last week's stronger than expected GDP report, better than

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Speaker 2: expected news on inflation. Now payrolls, This number three hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty three thousand, pretty remarkable, as the unemployment rate

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Speaker 2: holds at three point seven percent, that is the most

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Speaker 2: workers added in a year, wages jumping in a surprise reacceleration.

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Speaker 2: We can find some good and potentially some scary. But

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Speaker 2: if you're at the White House, it's all good. Ringing

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Speaker 2: the bell today, popping the cork, at least based on

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Speaker 2: the economic news. As we see the statement from Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: America's economy strongest in the world. Today we saw more

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Speaker 2: proof and you know how he likes to say, it's

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Speaker 2: not an accident. This is because of the administration's economic policies.

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Speaker 2: And then we look at the polls and we wonder

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Speaker 2: where the disconnect is happening. But let's get into this

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Speaker 2: right now with someone who spent time with Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: and the White House. In fact, one of his closest

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Speaker 2: economic advisors brought Ramamurdy, former deputy director of the White

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Speaker 2: House National Economic Council, is now senior advisor at the

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Speaker 2: Economic Security Project. Ron it's great to see you now

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Speaker 2: that you're free to speak about all of these.

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Speaker 3: Things, including the FED. Did we just take May off

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Speaker 3: the table?

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Speaker 4: I don't think so. I think that May is very

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Speaker 4: much in play, and frankly, I think that the data

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Speaker 4: suggests that March should be in play too, despite what

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Speaker 4: Chair Powell said. But look to talk about the jobs

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Speaker 4: report a little bit. It was a blockbuster, like you said,

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Speaker 4: defying expectations once more, and under the hood a lot

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Speaker 4: of good data as well about wages. As you noted,

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Speaker 4: the employment to population ratio went up meeting. In other words,

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Speaker 4: people are being pulled back into the labor market, attracted

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Speaker 4: by the prospect of good jobs at higher wages really

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Speaker 4: just a strong report across the board and suggests that

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Speaker 4: the underlying characteristics of the American economy remain extremely strong.

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Speaker 4: Earlier Today called it the energizer Bunny economy. It just

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Speaker 4: keeps growing and growing and growing.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 3: It sure seems like it.

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Speaker 2: Wages accelerating from a month earlier up the most as

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Speaker 2: you refer to here since March of twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: I know that this is frankly good news for the

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Speaker 2: President when he says, hey, we're putting more money in

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Speaker 2: your pockets, but it does have an inflationary effect for

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Speaker 2: a White House that's hoping to have inflation under control

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Speaker 2: in an election cycle. Here, Barat, I guess I'm wondering

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Speaker 2: if this should be seen as good news or bad news.

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Speaker 4: Look, the FED looks at a variety of measures when

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Speaker 4: it comes to wages. The Employment Cost Index, which came

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Speaker 4: out earlier this week didn't suggest that they're was a

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Speaker 4: massive reacceleration of wages, and the FED tends to view

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Speaker 4: that as a more reliable barometer. I think. Look, it's

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Speaker 4: important to remember that the Fed has a dual mandate.

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Speaker 4: It has to worry about price stability and it has

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Speaker 4: to worry about maximum employment. And if you look currently

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Speaker 4: at the balance of risks, you look at the data

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Speaker 4: that has come in over the last several months about

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Speaker 4: the trajectory of inflation, the fact that we know there's

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Speaker 4: more disinflation in the pipeline coming from the housing sector,

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Speaker 4: and the fact that while we had a good, blockbuster

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Speaker 4: jobs report today, there are some concerning signs that when

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Speaker 4: you look at the hiring rate and other factors in

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Speaker 4: the labor market, and then finally consider the fact that

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Speaker 4: that monetary policy operates with a lag and it's better

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Speaker 4: to be out in front of issues rather than being reactive,

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Speaker 4: All of that to me suggests that the Fed should

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Speaker 4: be looking to cut very very soon.

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Speaker 2: Interesting consumer sentiment meantime, brought to the highest since mid

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, and we all remember where we were then.

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Speaker 2: When you take the sort of composite view of the

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Speaker 2: data that we've gotten over the past couple of months,

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Speaker 2: here you may not be taking March or even May

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Speaker 2: off the table, but are we taking a recession finally

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Speaker 2: off the table?

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Speaker 4: Look, I think it would take something pretty unexpected at

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Speaker 4: this point to knock the economy off the trajectory that

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Speaker 4: it's on that said, we've experienced a lot of unexpected

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Speaker 4: things over the last couple of years, whether it's COVID

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Speaker 4: variance that we weren't necessarily anticipating, of course Russia's invasion

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Speaker 4: of Ukraine. Those were serious economic headwinds that the American

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Speaker 4: economy has managed to weather so far. It's possible that

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Speaker 4: we could see other unexpected headwinds in the months to come.

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Speaker 4: But again, the underlying data, things like consumer spending, the

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Speaker 4: state of household balance sheets, business investment, all of that

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Speaker 4: paints a very strong picture of where the economy is

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Speaker 4: and there's very little concern in my mind that it

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Speaker 4: can be knocked off course. That said, I think the

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Speaker 4: biggest variable we have to consider at the moment is

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Speaker 4: the Fed's approach, and I worry that if the FED

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Speaker 4: takes too long to start cutting rates that that could

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Speaker 4: end up having a negative effect as you get into

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Speaker 4: the second half of the year.

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Speaker 2: Well, God knows that we understand that J. Powell doesn't

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Speaker 2: want to cut too early. History has proven how deadly

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Speaker 2: that move can be. So is he is he wrong

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Speaker 2: in his view right now or just being careful?

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Speaker 4: Look, the FED is data driven, It has been data

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Speaker 4: driven throughout this process. I think the fact that that

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Speaker 4: that's not unexpected, given the fact that that's the way

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Speaker 4: Chair Powell has been throughout his tenure at the FED

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Speaker 4: and the other great folks on the FED board, I

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Speaker 4: expect them to continue to be data driven going forward.

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Speaker 4: To me, the balance of the data that we have

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Speaker 4: gotten on both inflation and the state of the labor

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Speaker 4: market suggests that the risks of inflation reaccelerating and the

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Speaker 4: risks of dropping below maximum employment are fairly well balanced,

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Speaker 4: which suggests that a cut should be coming. If you

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Speaker 4: look at the real effective interest rate, it's over five

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Speaker 4: percent right now. Inflation is running at two percent. That

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Speaker 4: means real rates are pretty high relatively speaking, and so

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Speaker 4: all of that suggests that a cut is an appropriate

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Speaker 4: course of action. It will matter a lot what the

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Speaker 4: data looks like in the next couple of months. Leading

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Speaker 4: into that March meeting.

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Speaker 3: We had a lot to learn, as always data dependent.

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Speaker 2: With Ramamurdi, great to see you, Barroat, thank you for

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Speaker 2: the insights today. Formerly of the White House and now

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Speaker 2: at the American Economic Liberties Project. I'm Jill, Matthew and Washington.

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Speaker 2: As we're spending a couple of plates here today. It

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Speaker 2: spend that case all week long here as the President

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Speaker 2: right now is not in the nation's capital. He kicked

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Speaker 2: out that statement that I read earlier via email. He's

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Speaker 2: in fact in Dover today in Delaware for the Dignified

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Speaker 2: Transfer meeting with grieving families at Dover Air Base today

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Speaker 2: in honor of the three American servicemen who were killed

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Speaker 2: last weekend, which brings us to the matter at hand

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Speaker 2: in Washington, and that's retaliation. We heard from the Secretary

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Speaker 2: of Defense a couple of days ago at this point

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Speaker 2: talking about multi tiered strikes, but still nothing. Not a

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Speaker 2: concerted attack against Iranian proxies, a little more lobbying around

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Speaker 2: with who the rebels, but not what we've been waiting

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Speaker 2: for here. And there's a great question about why the

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Speaker 2: Pentagon and the Administration have telegraphed things to this point.

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Speaker 3: That's why we want to bring in.

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Speaker 2: Brett Bruin is with us, who heads of course, the

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Speaker 2: Global Situation Room, A former diplomat at the White House

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Speaker 2: with a long career in national security.

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Speaker 3: Brett, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of the messaging that we've been

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Speaker 2: hearing from the administration these past couple of days, and

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Speaker 2: the fact that we haven't seen anything yet.

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Speaker 6: Well, let me start on that last point, Joe. I

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Speaker 6: think the fact we have not seen anything yet is

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Speaker 6: a good sign. It means that we are preparing, likely

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Speaker 6: a longer, more strategic rather than just a superficial strike.

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Speaker 6: At the same time, to your earlier question about the messaging,

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Speaker 6: I'm a little bit befuddle as to why the President

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Speaker 6: and his national security team are essentially telegraphing that we

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Speaker 6: are going to pull our punches. This I think sends

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Speaker 6: the wrong signal to Tehran, it sends the wrong signal

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Speaker 6: to other adversaries. And look, I'm not embracing the Republican

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Speaker 6: line that this is a demonstration of weakness. I just

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Speaker 6: don't think that we ought to be responding to an

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Speaker 6: attack that killed three of our soldiers by saying, well,

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Speaker 6: we're going to do something, but it's not going to

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Speaker 6: be a big thing.

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Speaker 2: Right, there's news today that iron is pulling a senior

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Speaker 2: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers out of Syria. Because I'm

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Speaker 2: assuming of this telegraphing in advance of expected air strikes.

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Speaker 3: Brett, is that the point to have the snake recoil.

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Speaker 6: Well partially, And you also want to keep in mind, Joe,

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Speaker 6: what is our longer term strategy here? Think it's important

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Speaker 6: and the binding team would be successful if they are

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Speaker 6: able to push back Iranian extracurricular activities across the Middle East.

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Speaker 6: If that is the outcome of both our strikes as

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Speaker 6: well as our strategy here, then that would be encouraging.

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Speaker 6: I think it would help to stabilize not just the

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Speaker 6: Huthis in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon, support for Bashar

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Speaker 6: al Assad in Syria, but it would I think send

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Speaker 6: a strong message to others in the region that things

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Speaker 6: are getting back to a more stable place, at a

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Speaker 6: more predictable place, and that Ran will be put back

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Speaker 6: in the box, at least for a period of time.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to ask you what you think should be

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Speaker 2: done here. But this story yesterday about Iran's slowing production

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Speaker 2: of enriched uranium, when you couple that on top of

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Speaker 2: the withdrawals that I just mentioned, is that evidence that

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Speaker 2: telegraphing is working.

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Speaker 6: I think what we're seeing from Iran, and you've read

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Speaker 6: the same news reports certainly that I have, where there

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Speaker 6: is an indication Iranian leaders did not necessarily have direct

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Speaker 6: involvement in this drone strike. So they're trying to say, look, look,

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Speaker 6: we realize this may have been a step too far,

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Speaker 6: and they are working on trying through some of those

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Speaker 6: back channels as well as the public messaging to say, Okay,

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Speaker 6: we will take at least a strategic step back. And

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Speaker 6: I do think that that's part of what's going into

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Speaker 6: the calculation right now of how do we reduce, as

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Speaker 6: Admiral John Kirby said, some of those capabilities, some of

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Speaker 6: those missile sites, some of those drone sites, while at

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Speaker 6: the same time not going to a point where Iran

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Speaker 6: feels the need that they have to up the ante here.

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Speaker 3: So let's talk about what might come in the days ahead.

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Speaker 2: We've heard about attacks being planned against Irani officials in

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Speaker 2: Iraq and serious specifically. Maybe there won't be that many left,

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Speaker 2: but that's as opposed to a direct attack against Iran.

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Speaker 3: Brett, is that what you expect.

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Speaker 6: I do, because I think if we across the rubicon

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Speaker 6: and strike directly into Iranian territory, that would force a

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Speaker 6: response from Tehran. Whereas if we are able to take

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Speaker 6: out some of those capabilities in Iraq, in Syria, in Yemen.

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Speaker 6: That will send a pretty significant message to Iranian leaders

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Speaker 6: without forcing them into a corner where they feel their

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Speaker 6: national sovereignty, where they feel that their power has been

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Speaker 6: challenged to a point that they are forced to hit back.

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Speaker 6: And let's not forget Joe. Iranian leaders. Because of years

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Speaker 6: now of economic sanctions after Trump pulled out of the

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Speaker 6: nuclear deal, the JCPOA are already in a somewhat vulnerable,

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Speaker 6: somewhat precarious position. So we've got a factor that in

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Speaker 6: and ensure that our efforts are done in such a

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Speaker 6: way that we don't allow an even more extreme group

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Speaker 6: of characters to take power in Iran.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with Bret Bruin of the Global Situation Room,

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Speaker 2: we talk about this disparate group of Iranian backed proxies

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Speaker 2: as if we have a sense of the whole chain

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Speaker 2: of command here Breadth, there's reporting in Politico today that

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Speaker 2: American intelligence officials believe Tehran does not have full control

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Speaker 2: of these proxy groups. Is that more reason to avoid

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Speaker 2: a strike against Tehran? And does that make it more

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Speaker 2: difficult to understand what happens next?

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Speaker 6: Well, first, I think that's accurate. Look, Iran has set

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Speaker 6: up a wide web of relationships with groups that helped

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Speaker 6: to serve different purposes and help Iran to pull and

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Speaker 6: puppeteer both in terms of the internal politics of some

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Speaker 6: of these countries like Iraq, Yemen. But at the same time,

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Speaker 6: Iran isn't there sitting in a command center with these folks.

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Speaker 6: They may be providing them the drones, the missiles, the

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Speaker 6: wherewithal to engage in some of those activities, generally giving

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Speaker 6: them a strategic direction, but Iran, I think, has not

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Speaker 6: established these as direct lines of command from Tehran out

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Speaker 6: to some of those sites, and what we're seeing are

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Speaker 6: the risks and really, quite frankly, the dangers in that model,

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Speaker 6: and Tehran may learn a lesson from this experience.

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Speaker 2: Well, you like to think, So, is there anything to

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Speaker 2: the idea of holding off, maybe doing a couple of

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Speaker 2: precision strikes here in the weeks ahead and potentially hitting

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Speaker 2: these groups much harder when they regroup in the spring.

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Speaker 6: Well there may be, But I would say that the

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Speaker 6: expectation has been set, both from the Pentagon as well

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Speaker 6: as the White House, that we are going to see

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Speaker 6: a series and potentially an extended series of strikes. I

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Speaker 6: think the goal will be to diminish to damage that

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Speaker 6: capability that Iranian groups or Iranian backed groups have. But

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Speaker 6: you know the other Joe, which is key here is

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Speaker 6: where we can hold out a threat of more if

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Speaker 6: Iran does try to rapidly rebuild constitute these groups, if

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Speaker 6: Iran does continue to aggressively stoke the flames, the embers

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Speaker 6: in the regional fires that are burning, then we will

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Speaker 6: take And this doesn't necessarily have to be a public message,

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Speaker 6: but we get the message through, for instance, the Swiss embassy,

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Speaker 6: which is our interlockator in Tehran. We get the message

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Speaker 6: through to Iranian leaders there isn't going to be tolerance

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Speaker 6: for any more of this.

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Speaker 3: And they wait. Brett.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see you, breb Ruin from the Global

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Speaker 2: Situation Room at the Townhouse in Old Town with us

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Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg. Always a great conversation with Brett. Brie

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Speaker 2: is the Bidens today again attending the dignified transfer of

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Speaker 2: the remains of the troops killed last weekend. They are

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Speaker 2: in Dover today along with the Secretary of Defense and

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Speaker 2: the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew. This he is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 2: With a gravity defying jobs report this morning that, as always,

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Speaker 2: is going to be interpreted a bit differently in Washington

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Speaker 2: than it is on Wall Street, depending on who you ask.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the administration sees this as all good news,

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Speaker 2: with payrolls and wages rising. There may be some inflation concerns,

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Speaker 2: but the statement from Joe Biden is clear out quickly

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Speaker 2: after the data quote, America's economy is the strongest in

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Speaker 2: the world, and today we saw more or proof with

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Speaker 2: another month of strong wage gains and employment gains of

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Speaker 2: over three hundred and fifty thousand in January. That's where

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Speaker 2: we start our conversation with Bloomberg White House correspondent Josh Winrove,

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Speaker 2: who joins us from the North Lawn. And I presume Josh,

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Speaker 2: they're popping some corks inside the building there today, as

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Speaker 2: this president has another good story to tell and it

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Speaker 2: definitely challenges the idea that this is an economy headed

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Speaker 2: for recession.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, absolutely. I mean, this is a president who's

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Speaker 5: got a lot of his aids from the sort of

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Speaker 5: labor side of the economic pool. The employment numbers have

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Speaker 5: always been one of the top, if not the top

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Speaker 5: indicator for them. So while markets are sort of assessing

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Speaker 5: whether this sort of Goldilocks landing is maybe not possible

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Speaker 5: or less possible given the sort of heat of today's numbers,

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Speaker 5: it still feels very Goldilocks to the Biden White House

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Speaker 5: behind me in looking at these things. Now, you know,

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Speaker 5: they continue to tout some of the specifics you mentioned wages.

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Speaker 5: They're sort of shrugging off some of the weakness on

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Speaker 5: hours work by saying whether effects played a role in them.

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Speaker 5: Of course, they point into particular groups who continue to

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Speaker 5: have really low, near record or record low on employment rates,

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Speaker 5: such as Black Americans. So this is a story that

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Speaker 5: they're going to be talking about a lot on the trail.

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Speaker 5: And of course the flip side of this, this might

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Speaker 5: make the FED wait a little bit longer, and that

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Speaker 5: means rat cuts coming later for Joe Biden, which you

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Speaker 5: know they don't talk about the FED, but surely I

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Speaker 5: think they'd like fit cuts politically speaking, as soon as

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Speaker 5: feasibly possible.

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Speaker 2: Well, they could coincide with the second half of the year, Joshuen.

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Speaker 2: Folks are really making up their minds, I suppose, on

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Speaker 2: who they want to vote for. It's about connecting with

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Speaker 2: voters though, Josh. We saw our Bloomberg News Morning Consult

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Speaker 2: Swing State pole this week, and the president is underwater

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Speaker 2: and a lot of important places. We're going to talk

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Speaker 2: in a moment with Congresswoman Debbie Dingle from one of

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Speaker 2: those places, and that's Michigan. There is time, clearly to

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Speaker 2: improve messaging or to somehow get the word out.

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Speaker 3: But where does this White House go?

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Speaker 2: They've been beating the drum on this economy and Bidenomics

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Speaker 2: for months and months and it just doesn't seem to

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Speaker 2: show up in the polling.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I was with the President yesterday in Michigan with

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Speaker 5: Congresswoman Dingle. She I'm sure, we'll tell you. He got

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Speaker 5: a pretty warm reception in that UAW Union Hall, So

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Speaker 5: you know, they're trying to get their message out to

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Speaker 5: whatever group they can. We did ask this very question, like, Hey,

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Speaker 5: when are you gonna get a bounce from this right

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Speaker 5: to Jared Bernstein, familiar face to Bloomberg viewers, of course,

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Speaker 5: the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors this morning,

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Speaker 5: and he said, look, you know, if this keeps going

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Speaker 5: and people's wages keep rising in the way that outpaces inflation,

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Speaker 5: in other words, real wage growth and jobs are strong,

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Speaker 5: and you know, wage growth is strong, and we don't

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Speaker 5: really have any signs of a recession, then he said, flatly,

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Speaker 5: we're confident this is going to start to show up

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Speaker 5: in the numbers. And of course he pointed to the

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Speaker 5: University of Michigan sentiment data today that shows it's showing

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Speaker 5: up in sentiment numbers. So you know, he is saying, basically,

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Speaker 5: I'm not a political expert, but a matter of time

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Speaker 5: before eventually people will start feeling better about it. But

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Speaker 5: polls right now, Joeys, you know, have a very just

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Speaker 5: partisan lens on them, arguably more than ever. So whether

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Speaker 5: this really translates sort of like for like pound for

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Speaker 5: pound into Biden's polling, it's hard to imagine that happening.

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Speaker 5: But will you see a boost the white as a

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Speaker 5: signaling that they hope to or at least expected.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you mentioned that consumer sentiment index highest

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Speaker 2: today since mid twenty twenty one, and we have come

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Speaker 2: a long way since then. Josh Wingrove, some of our analysts,

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Speaker 2: including Rick Davis, would tell you that that is a

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Speaker 2: far more accurate gauge than a lot of political polls.

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Speaker 2: A lot of campaign polls are this far out from

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Speaker 2: an election. That's got to be good news for this

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Speaker 2: White House. Does it give us an indication of where

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Speaker 2: public opinion might be months down the road.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they're hoping it's a leading indicator. You know, Biden

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Speaker 5: Democrats don't traditionally run on the economy per se, but

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Speaker 5: Biden kind of wants to, in particular in states like

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Speaker 5: Michigan when he went yesterday, where they want to talk

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Speaker 5: about defending unions, they want to talk about manufacturing jobs,

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Speaker 5: and they want to draw a contrast to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: You know, we're finally gearing up for this Trump Biden rematch.

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Speaker 5: A lot of people didn't necessarily think it was going

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Speaker 5: to happen. You know, some people still don't think it's

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Speaker 5: going to happen. This is certainly barring a major surprise

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Speaker 5: where it's headed. So we're headed for a rematch. We're

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Speaker 5: going to hear a lot of the sort of contrast

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Speaker 5: questions Biden always likes to say, don't compare me to

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Speaker 5: the almighty, compare me to the alternative. Well, now he's

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Speaker 5: got an alternative. So we're gonna be hearing a lot

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Speaker 5: more about this from them. But the question is, of course,

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Speaker 5: can it bring those numbers up. You mentioned our Bloomberg polls,

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Speaker 5: Not to put too fine a point on it, he's

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Speaker 5: trailing Trump in every one of those seven swing states,

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Speaker 5: including Michigan in that poll. There's time left, but right

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Speaker 5: now our polling shows that Joe Biden is an underdog

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Speaker 5: to win a second term.

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Speaker 2: Josh it's good to see Thank you for the insights

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Speaker 2: from the White House with us josh Win Grove Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: White House correspondent, who again was traveling, as he mentioned,

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Speaker 2: with the President yesterday in Michigan, and we want to

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Speaker 2: go there now to bring in Congresswoman Debbie Dingle, of

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Speaker 2: course a Democratic ally of President Biden, but somebody who

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Speaker 2: understands the contours of a very important state that we

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Speaker 2: pretend to know here in Washington, and I wonder what

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Speaker 2: we might learn here in our conversation. Representative Dingle, it's

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Speaker 2: great to see you.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to start with this jobs report because this

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Speaker 2: is the kind of story that the president wants to

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Speaker 2: tell him frankly has been telling. Is it perplexing to

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Speaker 2: see this connect with public opinion or can you draw

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Speaker 2: on your experience to tell us that it will show

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Speaker 2: up in the next couple of months, that this is

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Speaker 2: a leading indicator.

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Speaker 7: So I think, Look, I'm somebody that knows it really

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Speaker 7: matters when you go into that poll, into that voting booth,

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Speaker 7: how you feel polls are. Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was

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Speaker 7: going to win that election except for a few of us,

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Speaker 7: and the polls were still showing she was going to

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Speaker 7: win Election day, and people told me I was crazy

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Speaker 7: when for months said Donald Trump could and then would

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Speaker 7: win the election. I think that we've all been through

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Speaker 7: a very difficult time. The cost in grocery stores has

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Speaker 7: remained high. People are seeing job security, We've seen significant

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Speaker 7: labor negotiations, which is giving people real wage increases. And

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Speaker 7: now it's our job to get It's not just the

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Speaker 7: president's job. It's our job to get in the union

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Speaker 7: halls and give him the credit that he deserves for

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Speaker 7: what he has actually done the last few years.

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Speaker 2: Tell me what's happening in union halls because you were

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Speaker 2: in one yesterday with the president. He's received the endorsement

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Speaker 2: of the UAW. And we know as well that Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump has been courting the union vote here. I'm sure

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Speaker 2: you have very strong feelings about that. But he's talking

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Speaker 2: to Teamsters members who already voted for him once. How

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Speaker 2: does Joe Biden take the power of walking the picket

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Speaker 2: line and turn it into something real here?

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Speaker 7: So I think he needs to go in and connect

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Speaker 7: with those workers. And it's also it's great to get

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Speaker 7: an endorsement from our union leader, and that's a good thing.

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Speaker 7: But quite frankly, for the last few years or decades,

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Speaker 7: people aren't getting into those halls. They're not doing the

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Speaker 7: door to door, they're not talking to each other about

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Speaker 7: what's really happened. I know that in the instance of

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Speaker 7: the UAW, President Dane was not one of the early

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Speaker 7: presidents that came to He did the comparison of what

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Speaker 7: Don Trump had done for auto workers, but President Biden

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Speaker 7: had done for auto workers. He doesn't give his name

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Speaker 7: likely and he is going to work to do everything

437
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 7: he can. He's going to be in those halls. He's

438
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 7: going to talk to every worker. He's going to tell

439
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 7: them Donald Trump hasn't delivered for you. He didn't care

440
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 7: if you've got a pay raise. He didn't care if

441
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 7: you had a pension that was going to protect it.

442
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 7: He didn't care if you've got health care. Donald Trump

443
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 7: is very good at playing on people's fears but not delivering.

444
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 7: We and other union I mean, I'm going to get

445
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 7: in every union hall i can so that I can

446
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 7: show how Joe Biden is actually delivered for the worker.

447
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 8: Well.

448
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 2: I find it interesting, confusing, sometimes fascinating.

449
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 3: I don't know what the right word is. Congress waning.

450
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: When Joe Biden goes and talks to union members about

451
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 2: the power of organized labor, about the future, in this

452
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 2: case of the auto industry, some of the nuances that

453
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 2: come with union membership. Donald Trump shows up, He talks

454
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 2: about the border, and he talks about the fact that

455
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 2: China's going to own them when EV's come around. Does

456
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 2: Joe Biden need a sharper message?

457
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 7: So this is what I'm going to say to you.

458
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 7: I mean, Donald Trump was very effective. I'm always very

459
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 7: honest that in fifteenth fourteen, fifteen sixteen, we did a

460
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 7: terrible job as Democrats talking about trade. I knew well

461
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 7: these workers had all seen their jobs shipped overseas to

462
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 7: Mexico and to Asia, and they didn't want to see

463
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 7: that happen anymore. Joe Biden has brought those jobs home.

464
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 7: People are worried about people coming into the border and

465
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 7: over the border, and they're worried about safety and national security,

466
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 7: but they're also worried that they might take their job away.

467
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 7: In the fact, in matterusa's we have too many small businesses.

468
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 7: We need caregiving farmers that don't have people to fill

469
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 7: the jobs. And secondly, I'm a car grow You know

470
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 7: that I worked for the auto industry for more decades

471
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 7: than I'm going to admit. I remember the seventies. I

472
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 7: was young, but we lost the domestic auto market, lost

473
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 7: at competitive advantage for more than a decade because we

474
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 7: weren't ready when there was a demand for small ours

475
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 7: because of increased gasoline costs evs. We're competing in a

476
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 7: global marketplace. That's a bat and I'm not going to

477
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 7: secede our leadership to China or anything. EV's are part

478
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 7: of our future, and we're going to build them here

479
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 7: in America. He used his fear language. Our job is

480
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 7: to talk about how we are protecting ourselves competitively and

481
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 7: protecting the environment at the same time.

482
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 2: Spending time with Congresswoman Debbie Dingle of Michigan as we

483
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: walk down the campaign trail just a bit, I'd like

484
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: to ask you about some of the stuff that's happening

485
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: in Congress right now, Representative, but before we move from

486
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 2: the campaign trail, the matter of criticism from Arab Americans,

487
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 2: from Islamic Americans, Muslim Americans in your state. You've got

488
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 2: a large population, it's an important demographic in Michigan. Is

489
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 2: something that we've been hearing a lot about. Of course,

490
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: since Joe Biden spoke so forcefully in support of Israel

491
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 2: in its war against Hamas. This is something that has

492
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: turned into a repeated instance of heckling when he's in person.

493
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 2: Received protests in Washington that are shutting down traffic on

494
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 2: some mornings.

495
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 3: How much of a liability is this going to be

496
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 3: in your state?

497
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 7: So these issues, I'm someone who tells the truth. These

498
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 7: are very serious issues. I lived in Dearborn, Michigan for

499
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 7: almost forty years. Those people, the residents of Dearborn, are

500
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 7: my neighbors, my friends, They have family that lives over there,

501
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 7: They have family that has died, They have family that

502
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 7: doesn't have food, they don't have access to water, they

503
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 7: have no place to live. Need Hamasa is a terrorist group.

504
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 7: What they did to Israel was absolutely horrific and cannot

505
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 7: be condoned. But at the same time, we need a ceasefire.

506
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 7: Right now. More than thirty thousand innocent people have died

507
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 7: over there, twelve thousand children, a Jewish baby, a Palestinian baby.

508
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 7: They're babies. We need to protect our children. We need

509
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 7: to state solution. The President has to address it. Knows

510
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 7: that he does. He's always been for a two state solution.

511
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 7: I know there are a lot of diplomatic things going on,

512
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 7: and people say they can't talk about everything. They're going

513
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 7: to have to become much more public in telling people

514
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 7: what is going on and addressing this at on in

515
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:16,439
Speaker 7: the next few weeks.

516
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,719
Speaker 2: You speak on a very personal level about this. Congresswoman,

517
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 2: did you deliver that message to the president yesterday.

518
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 7: Any conversation that I have with somebody like that is

519
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 7: private and personal. People know when people talk to me,

520
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 7: they know what I'm thinking. But I just believe you know,

521
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 7: and I do think I have. I'm very Israel has

522
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 7: a right to exist. I mean, this is I think

523
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 7: a whole lot of American people are where I am.

524
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 7: What Amasu did was horrific. It was a terrorist act.

525
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 7: But you cannot watch these innocent children, these families die.

526
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 7: It's horrific. It's just it's a horrific situation.

527
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: Well, I know that there's talk about a cease fire.

528
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 2: How about another pause, how about a couple of days

529
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 2: to get more hostages out.

530
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 7: That's a bit all the house. You just have to

531
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 7: be returned. That called for the immediate release of them,

532
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 7: and I want to see them get home. It's a

533
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 7: very complicated situation. I'm clearly not a state department of

534
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 7: the White House negotiating this, but the debt that the

535
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 7: killing has to talk. But they're not getting humanitarian aid there.

536
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 7: You don't know how hard it is to help trying

537
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 7: to help families that I represent who have fathers and

538
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 7: stepmothers and have the siblings over there, and they've got

539
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 7: the visas, they can't get across the border. And if

540
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 7: you talk to people that are over there, the humanitarian

541
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 7: aid is not getting through the bridges, it's not crossing

542
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 7: in there. We need far more humanitarian aid than they're

543
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 7: getting there than it's there.

544
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: What's it like being a Democrat here from Michigan who

545
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 2: engages with constituents on the extent that you do. The

546
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 2: way you're talking makes me feel like your phone's ringing

547
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 2: off the hook.

548
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 7: I talk to people. Look, I have been protested, I've

549
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 7: been docs six times. I talk to everybody, and they

550
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 7: know I don't. When people are upset, I go and

551
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:17,239
Speaker 7: meet with them. I talk to people. And that's one

552
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 7: of the reasons why I have good gut. I knew

553
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 7: when we were in trouble when Donald Trump won, because

554
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 7: I was in those union halls and they didn't think

555
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 7: Democrats cared about their jobs. Right now we have to.

556
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 7: I mean, I know people are worried about both candidates,

557
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 7: but I'm going to tell you about Docal Trump. He's

558
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 7: the one that calls Muslims vermin, that they'll poison our blood.

559
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 7: They should be banned from being here right now. The

560
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 7: killing's got to stop. We need a two state solution,

561
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 7: but it's we've got to move forward.

562
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 3: And our remaining moments here Congress.

563
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 2: When you know what else they say Democrats have a

564
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 2: problem with is the border here in the US.

565
00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 3: Are we going to see a deal that can pass

566
00:29:59,600 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 3: the House?

567
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 2: The speaker says it's doa But I can't tell if

568
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: this is bluster or if we're on the verge of

569
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: a major breakthrough.

570
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 7: I think it's ironic. This is a very tough issue.

571
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 7: There have been Republican presidents and Democratic presidents that have

572
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 7: tried to deal with it. George borsbart clothes and it

573
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 7: ends up blowing up. We are sent to Congress to

574
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 7: do tough jobs. We actually have people agreeing to something,

575
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 7: compromises in a dirty word and thinks that the Progressive

576
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 7: Caucus is going crazy over and Republicans are going to

577
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 7: kill it. They cannot say that they're serious about wanting

578
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 7: something done at the border and then kill the most

579
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 7: realistic and significant border bill, immigration bill that has been negotiated.

580
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 7: I haven't even seen it, so I don't even know

581
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 7: what I think. But saying that Ben the bill is

582
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 7: dead on arrival before you've even seen it, doesn't mean

583
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 7: that you're serious about you want it as a political issue.

584
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 7: You don't want to solve the problem.

585
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 2: Debbie Dingle reminds us of a point of fact. With

586
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 2: all the handwringing and gnashing of teeth. There's still no text.

587
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 2: We think we might see it tonight. They say it

588
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 2: will emerge by the weekend. Congress Woman, I want to

589
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 2: thank you for the time. Come and see us in

590
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: person next time you're back in Washington, DC. Debbie Dingle,

591
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: Democrat from Michigan's sixth It was with the President yesterday

592
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 2: and speaking passionately here about some of the most important

593
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 2: issues that we're hearing about on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

594
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 3: Will assemble our panel next.

595
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis dive in on our conversation

596
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 2: with Debbie Dingle and whether anything of meaning will emerge

597
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 2: from Congress as we wait for text on the border.

598
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of

599
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on

600
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: Apocarplay and then Bruno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

601
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

602
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

603
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 2: Appreciate your being with us here on Bloomberg's Balance of Power.

604
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington here on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg TV.

605
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 2: Find us on YouTube as well. Kaylee is off today

606
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 2: as we turn our attention to day one hundred. Some

607
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 2: didn't think Mike Johnson would make it the Speaker of

608
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 2: the House Day one hundred, with gavel in hand and

609
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 2: big questions about what might happen this weekend when a

610
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: border deal emerges from the Senate. We could, as we've

611
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 2: been reporting see text as soon as tonight following our

612
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 2: conversation with Congresswoman Debbie Dingle, I'm kind of wondering how

613
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 2: this goes. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino are with us

614
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: now as we assemble our political panel on a Friday

615
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Ginny, you could hear the passion, maybe

616
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 2: the frustration in Debbie Dingle's voice as we walked through

617
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: some of these issues here when it comes to a

618
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 2: border deal, Could this pass the Senate, never mind the House,

619
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: considering the opposition that we've been hearing from Republicans, you know.

620
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 8: I certainly hope, so, I hope so it is, you know,

621
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 8: to use the Republicans one word appalling if it doesn't

622
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 8: for purely, you know, just nakedly political reasons. We need

623
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 8: to have border security. We also need a sound immigration

624
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 8: policy that doesn't seem We haven't seen the bill that

625
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 8: is part of this, but we do need border security.

626
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 9: You know, I'm here in New York. We had the

627
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 9: attack on.

628
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 8: Police officers in New York City and now have our

629
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 8: governor calling for the deportation of those assailants, some of

630
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 8: whom seem to have fled the state. So we do

631
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 8: need border security. And the idea that because any political

632
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 8: candidate for office is calling for a weight on something

633
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 8: this important for his own ends, and that would be

634
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 8: Donald Trump, is appalling and it shouldn't happen.

635
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 9: So the Senate should pass it. The House should take

636
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 9: it up and pass it. Listen, Republicans have gotten what

637
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 9: they wanted.

638
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 8: The President, much to the chagrin of the left wing

639
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 8: of his party, said I will do what you want security,

640
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 8: and now they're saying no because they don't want him

641
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 8: to get a bill passed.

642
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rick, one hundred days into his tenure, Speaker Mike

643
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 2: Johnson does not seem compelled to entertain this bill.

644
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 3: He's already called it da.

645
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer's going for it, though, and he's got the

646
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 2: support of Mitch McConnell. Here the deal will be made

647
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 2: public no later than Sunday, that would set up the

648
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 2: first procedural vote. No later than next Wednesday. Is their

649
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 2: strategy here in jamming the House, if we can call

650
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: it that, don't listen to the noise, just plow ahead.

651
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 3: Well, it wouldn't be.

652
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 10: The first time that the Senate has jammed the House

653
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 10: of Representative. So yeah, it's a tried and true strategy.

654
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 10: And obviously the writers of this bill, they don't want

655
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 10: to get nitpicked to death by letting it swim around

656
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 10: too much. So the reality is they're going to give

657
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 10: people plenty of time to vote on it. They'll know

658
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 10: what they're voting on when they do, and I would

659
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 10: expect a pretty lopsided vote in the Senate. I think

660
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 10: they're going to send this to the House the pretty

661
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 10: good head of steam on it. And of course we've

662
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 10: heard throughout this program when we've talked about it, it's

663
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 10: only done on arrival until they shape it up to

664
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 10: their will, right, and I have no doubt that there'll

665
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 10: be something that the Speaker will want to add to

666
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 10: this bill or take out that will make it more

667
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 10: to his liking. But there'll be an enormous amount of

668
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,879
Speaker 10: pressure to do something you already see it starting to label.

669
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 10: And so it's like the entire country Republicans, the Democrats,

670
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 10: and Independence of Light against Donald Trump and the Speaker.

671
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 3: Being in the middle.

672
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 10: So we'll see whether or not the speaker picks the

673
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 10: country or Trump.

674
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: Well, that's quite a decision to make, Geenie, as we

675
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 2: stare down the barrel of another potential government shutdown now

676
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 2: as well, Mike Johnson indicating to Fox earlier today that

677
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 2: he will not do another stopgap funding measure that's less

678
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: than a month away March first, March eighth, or the

679
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 2: two shutdown days in our laddered CR as the monks

680
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 2: call it here in Washington. But if that's the case,

681
00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 2: no one seems to think we have time to write

682
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: a real budget in the next month. Do we shut

683
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: down and delay the State of the Union address the

684
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 2: first week of March?

685
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 8: Oh, Joe, it's feeling like groundhog Day when you have

686
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 8: Mike Johnson saying no, no, no, no, no. R Yeah, there

687
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 8: he goes again. You know, listen, if there is no

688
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 8: time he can say all he wants as he did

689
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 8: before that he will not support a CR and maybe

690
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 8: he means it, But the idea that they would shut

691
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 8: down the government rather than pass a CR and get

692
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 8: a sound budget for this country is absolutely astonishing. I

693
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 8: don't think it will happen. It doesn't work for the

694
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 8: Republicans benefit, it doesn't work for the Democrats. But I

695
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 8: think if he passes this CR, you know, we've got

696
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 8: to be empathetic to Mike Johnson. His job could very

697
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 8: well be at stake, and that is the state of

698
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 8: the Republican Party today. And you know, so you feel

699
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 8: for the guy. But the reality is there cannot be

700
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 8: a shutdown, pass another lattered CR if you have to,

701
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 8: and get to work on passing these bills.

702
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 2: So I guess I don't know the best way to

703
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 2: ask this question, Rick. What's more likely a government shutdown

704
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 2: or the speaker getting fired.

705
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 3: Or both?

706
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: Right?

707
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 10: I mean, the two aren't mutually exclusive. You know, it

708
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 10: only takes one Republican or one Democrat to put that

709
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 10: whole thing in play. So they haven't gotten around to

710
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 10: changing their rules. The reality is nobody gains with the

711
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 10: government shutdown. Republicans will look foolish. They're in control of this.

712
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 10: They've made lots of promises that they can actually move

713
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 10: a budget. They need to move a budget, and I'm

714
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 10: glad he actually said the Speaker did that he wasn't

715
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 10: going to do any more of these crs because he

716
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 10: shouldn't do any more of these crs. There's absolutely no

717
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 10: reason why they can't get the rest of these appropriations

718
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 10: bills done on time?

719
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 3: Is that true, Genie?

720
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 2: Do you have faith in these guys with a relatively

721
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 2: challenging calendar.

722
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 3: We've got an impeachment vote.

723
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 2: Coming, we're talking about it, obviously, we've got the tax

724
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 2: deal to manage. How do you get a whole budget

725
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: through these two chambers when it's still hasn't happened yet

726
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 2: this fiscal year.

727
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 8: It's gonna be tough, and the calendar never works in

728
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 8: their favor. Don't forget the FAA, don't forget FAIZA. I mean,

729
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 8: there's so much on the plate, but the number one

730
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 8: thing they have to do is put to get together

731
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 8: a budget. I do hope that they are able to

732
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 8: do it, but if they are not, the only option

733
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 8: then is a CR and they must do that, so

734
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 8: God willing, they get the bills written and passed. But

735
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 8: if they can't, he should not be taking a CR

736
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 8: up the table if he's doing it just to light

737
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 8: a fire under his fellow Republicans. That is fine, but

738
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 8: when it push comes to shove, a laddered cr has

739
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 8: to move versus a shutdown.

740
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 2: Well, how about we get real here in cancel recess, Rick,

741
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 2: They've got two weeks off coming up. Can we not

742
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 2: take that off the board right now.

743
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 10: Well, they've had these big milestone issues before and they've

744
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 10: chosen to go home. I mean, it's beyond my comprehension.

745
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 10: I don't know if taxpayers in America are going to

746
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 10: want to rebate for or how little work that these

747
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 10: guys have done. And why give Joe Biden the opportunity

748
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 10: to criticize you for taking time off. I mean, like,

749
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 10: if I were a Democrat strategist right now, I'd be

750
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 10: having a ball. Yeah, go ahead and shut down government.

751
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 10: Joe Biden will give the State of the Union address

752
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 10: from the Oval Office all by himself to an empty

753
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 10: picture of a Congress you know, I mean.

754
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 3: It's nuts.

755
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 10: I would be going crazy right now. I mean, come on, guys,

756
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 10: do your work, get this done, take credit for something

757
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,760
Speaker 10: that you've done for the country, and go run for reelection.

758
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 2: Rick Dave is trying to help both sides here, Jeanie.

759
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 2: I kind of like where he's going, though. If we

760
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 2: start to shut down, the state of the Union gets

761
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 2: delayed or canceled. Joe Biden has an appointment to talk

762
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 2: to the American people that night. Should he not stick

763
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 2: to it?

764
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 8: Oh, he should absolutely stick to it, and I think

765
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 8: that they would. I can't imagine the Republicans giving him

766
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 8: that window. But the fact is, the way that caucus works,

767
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 8: it's not up really to the leadership there. It's up

768
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 8: to some of these fringe members. So this is where

769
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 8: the idea when you have a new speaker untested, this

770
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 8: becomes really really challenging. But absolutely Joe Biden would give

771
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 8: that address and he would call them out and it

772
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 8: would be a winning argument. But that's not in the

773
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,399
Speaker 8: interest of the American public or any of us. We

774
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 8: need a budget. By the way, we're talking about this

775
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 8: in February.

776
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 9: You know, this should have been done a long time ago.

777
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 9: So it's not as if they didn't have time before either.

778
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, if we were in Genie's class at Iona, we

779
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 2: all would have failed by now.

780
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 3: Rick.

781
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 2: President Biden is not at the White House at the moment.

782
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: He's in Dover for the Dignified transferrees, meeting with the

783
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: families of fallen Americans, those who were attacked in Jordan

784
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: last weekend, and it brings us back to the idea

785
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,839
Speaker 2: that we could see military action at any moment now

786
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:00,040
Speaker 2: in retaliation for what happened. Do you suspect that he

787
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 2: will address the American people on this over the course

788
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: of the weekend.

789
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 10: Whether or not he addresses the American people, I think

790
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,720
Speaker 10: that's a flip of a coin. I am a little

791
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 10: surprised we haven't seen some kind of retaliatory event already.

792
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 10: I mean a week has gone by this weekend, and

793
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 10: you begin to wonder how much are they thinking about this?

794
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 10: Did they not have a plan in place that if

795
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 10: somebody is killed in one of these attacks, what are

796
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 10: we going to do about it? I mean, you know,

797
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 10: it just seems to be a lot of contemplation and

798
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 10: not a lot of action. I'm not a national security strategist.

799
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 10: There are a lot of moving parts of these kinds

800
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 10: of things, but I would think a thoughtful but immediate

801
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 10: approach to this is something that could help build back

802
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:46,280
Speaker 10: confidence in the military and Joe Biden's leadership is commander

803
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 10: in chief. Otherwise, you know, it's sort of same old,

804
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 10: same old.

805
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 2: Some are encouraged by the deliberation here, the fact that

806
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 2: nothing's happened yet, the idea of restraint that will act

807
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 2: at the time of our own choosing.

808
00:41:58,960 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 3: Geenie, what do you think.

809
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 8: You know, there's a lot of complicating factors, including things

810
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 8: that they can't control, like the weather. But I do

811
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 8: think that the president should be out there giving an

812
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 8: address on this, if for no other reason, because the

813
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 8: Middle East has flummixed and quite frankly negatively impacted the

814
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 8: last ten presidencies in the United States. This is a

815
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 8: crisis of enormous repercussions for presidents in the US. He's

816
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 8: got to take this seriously, which we know he is,

817
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 8: but he's also got to tell the American public why

818
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 8: we are involved and engaged.

819
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 9: And he can't just do it once. He's got to

820
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 9: do it over and over and over and over again.

821
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 8: Clearly because it's her, it's an impact for him politically

822
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 8: for all of us. And we could see just in

823
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 8: Debbie Dingle, Representative Dingles, you know, the emotion in her

824
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 8: voice as somebody who lives in Michigan, the impact of.

825
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 7: This on the ground.

826
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,959
Speaker 2: Great conversation, as always with Rick Davis and Genie Schanzano.

827
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 3: Thanks for listen to the Balance of Power podcast.

828
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

829
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

830
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

831
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,280
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.