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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveiban's the federal government is uniquely dysfunctional

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Speaker 1: and not working in any way that any of us

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Speaker 1: would recognize. Two thousand sixteen is your reset year within

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Speaker 1: our twenty year bulmarket thesis, which we've been talking about. Myself.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little skeptical that the kind of volatility we've

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Speaker 1: seen it's really going to have the severe splot out

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Speaker 1: in the economy. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world

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Speaker 1: of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good running everyone,

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Speaker 1: Michael McKain, Tom Keane, Job's day. We welcome all of

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Speaker 1: you Bloomberg Radio plus around the world, coast to coast,

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Speaker 1: Serious next M Channel one nineteen. Good morning, Bloomberg FM, Washington,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg TWE Boston. Here in a little bit of snow,

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Speaker 1: New York, Bloomberg eleven three oh New York, and of

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Speaker 1: course out in beautiful San Francisco Bay Area, we say

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Speaker 1: good morning to you. Let's get right to at the

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Speaker 1: four X brief brought you I Interactive Broker's Winner of

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Speaker 1: FX Weeks two thousand fifteen Award for the best reach

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Speaker 1: out for X trading platform. Visit ib at I b

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Speaker 1: k R dot com, Slash four x Michael watching a

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Speaker 1: couple of stories on the company side today, Fox Cotton

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Speaker 1: Sharp and We designed their six billion dollar takeover agreement

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Speaker 1: as early as next Monday. They apparently have now decided

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Speaker 1: down the deal won't require major changes. AMC Entertainment controlled

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Speaker 1: by China's richards Man agreeing goodbye car Miike has somebody

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Speaker 1: said Carmike, I'm I'm not sure how you pronounced it.

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Speaker 1: It looks like Carmike to me. I thought cinemas one

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Speaker 1: point one billion dollar all cash deal would create the

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Speaker 1: world's largest cinema chain. Uh and Facebook is going to

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Speaker 1: stop routing advertising sales of its largest UK clients through Ireland.

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Speaker 1: That was a strategy they used to UH lower their

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Speaker 1: tax bill. It will now go up by millions of pounds.

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Speaker 1: They've been facing criticism on that, so um Mark Zuckerberg

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Speaker 1: responding to that, and we should follow up on Herbal Life,

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Speaker 1: which was a big uproar yesterday. And Mike McKee and

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Speaker 1: I don't do much on this. We sort of avoided

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Speaker 1: the soap opera HL left. There's only four people that

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Speaker 1: follow it. Thanks to Timothy Ramy for his help yesterday

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Speaker 1: with Pivotal, sun Trust, Barclay's stern Age yesterday. This just

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Speaker 1: quoted yesterday and Overweight Meredith Adler and Barclay's Michael and

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Speaker 1: April See had uh stern Age neutral. Yeah, you know

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Speaker 1: just within the Church. Over Life shares up one point

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Speaker 1: one percent. I should mention one more here and that's

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Speaker 1: Sam Sunite and to me came out late yesterday, rumored

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Speaker 1: earlier in the day, came out late yesterday. Sam Sunit

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Speaker 1: is gonna buy too me. The luggage makers, uh too

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Speaker 1: many shares went up thirty one. I thought that was

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Speaker 1: because all my kids need a new luggage. It's a

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Speaker 1: one point eight billion dollar dea. And um Sampson Night

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Speaker 1: shares also rose, which is unusual to see an acquirer

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Speaker 1: rise on the same Remember when we just had a

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Speaker 1: duffle bag. You know, you got a double bag. Fill

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Speaker 1: it up. Remember when you well and your kids still

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Speaker 1: do bring home their laundry in the plastics. Oh no,

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Speaker 1: we we still we still we do that. In the end,

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Speaker 1: we convert the end to the laundry. Somehow we think

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Speaker 1: we'll save money bring it. Uh is with black Hawk,

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Speaker 1: of course, he's the global chief Investment strategist and uh,

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Speaker 1: rest to your kids still bring home their laundry in

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Speaker 1: their duffel bag. My son's eleven, so I'm just glad

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't leave it in his room. It's oh

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Speaker 1: you got that. I can't get them, you know, they

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Speaker 1: just the closer inside out there all over the house.

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Speaker 1: You know what you're gonna do? Alright, good jobs report,

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Speaker 1: stock market right now not enthusiastic. SMP futures actually marginally

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Speaker 1: down in the Dow, up only four points. Why the

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Speaker 1: lack of enthusiasm? Is this a good news? Is bad news? Feeling?

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Speaker 1: You know? It's a morginal. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: good report, but it's a hard one to interpret because

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Speaker 1: in the one hand, you have a very solid jobs number.

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Speaker 1: This further u argues against the notion that was prevalent

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Speaker 1: a few months ago that we're going into recession. We're

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Speaker 1: clearly not. But the other fact, which I think has

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Speaker 1: confused the markets is there was evidence that wages were

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Speaker 1: finally firming, and this report didn't confirm that. A matter

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Speaker 1: of fact, you're so wages followed by one tense of

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Speaker 1: one percent. So my read is the market doesn't know

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Speaker 1: what to make of it. But I think it's a

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Speaker 1: good number because it shows you one, the economy is

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Speaker 1: still in decent shape. In two, it removes some of

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Speaker 1: the near term pressure from the Fed. So, uh, then

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Speaker 1: why don't we feel much better about it than we do? Well?

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, simple answers. We've already had a

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Speaker 1: pretty big runoff blows and if you look at you

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Speaker 1: know how we've done since mid February. This has been

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Speaker 1: a big, very quick rally. And the truth is the

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Speaker 1: fundamentals haven't changed that much. So you've already had some

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Speaker 1: change in sentiment, You've had some lower discounting on a recession.

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Speaker 1: You know, this might be a classic example of by

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Speaker 1: the rumor and sell the news. Yeah, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: want to point out the dat seven point seven percent

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Speaker 1: off of its high of mid two thousand fifteen. I mean, Russ,

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Speaker 1: it's incredible. It's not a correction, it's not a bear market.

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Speaker 1: But we're miserable. Is this an opportunity or do you

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Speaker 1: need to find more of a base off that double bottom?

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Speaker 1: You know, I don't know, you know, I never put

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Speaker 1: in that much space in the double bottoms and the trying,

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Speaker 1: thank you, thank you, thank you, But you know, Besides,

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be opportunities. But I do think

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Speaker 1: we're going to be in a period of more volatility.

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Speaker 1: And one thing I would say, you know, we've seen

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Speaker 1: the VIX drop in recent weeks. I think that's temporary.

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Speaker 1: Even if the market goes higher this year, and I

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Speaker 1: think it can, I do think there's change are going

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Speaker 1: to be accompanied by more volatility, which means you've got

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Speaker 1: to look at these cases where markets overreact and look

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Speaker 1: for value. We like Russ Costroshine because he synthesizes cross

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Speaker 1: asset and and and gives us a cogent view for it.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna make I'm gonna break a rule Russ and

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Speaker 1: ask the question I usually ask at the end of

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Speaker 1: the half hour. I'm gonna ask it now, is you

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Speaker 1: go into your weekend reading, what's the number one thing

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Speaker 1: you need to get smarter on within this unorthodox zoo

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Speaker 1: that we're living in. I actually have a straight answer

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Speaker 1: for that one. China. You've got the National People's Congress

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Speaker 1: this weekend. If I think about the world today, I'm

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Speaker 1: less worried about the U. S economy. I'm more concerned

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Speaker 1: about the long term trajectory of China. Now the largest

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Speaker 1: economy in the world on purchasing power parity. Uh, this

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Speaker 1: is what I want to look at. What has happened

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Speaker 1: with China. How are they going to address their issues

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Speaker 1: on the currency, on the slowing economy, and on the

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Speaker 1: huge build up of debt. Well, this is a week

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Speaker 1: when we're going to get some answers to that coming

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Speaker 1: up with the People's Congress. What could they say that

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Speaker 1: would impress you given the lack of transparency there? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you know my kid on the key point,

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Speaker 1: which is the lack of transparency. Uh. Probably the key

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Speaker 1: thing is that you're going to see more of a

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Speaker 1: commitment to structure reform, more specificity about what those reforms

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Speaker 1: gonna look like. And I think perhaps most important is

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Speaker 1: some roadmap of how you're going to deal with what

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Speaker 1: has to be a deleveraging of that economy. There's been

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Speaker 1: this tremendous build up of dead in China since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight. It's a level that most economists review

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Speaker 1: is certainly the danger zone. How are you going to

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Speaker 1: address that? That that's to me is the weekend rating?

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Speaker 1: What do you uh? What do you want done? Uh?

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Speaker 1: In what would reassure you about China and how long

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Speaker 1: would it take because this this has been going on

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Speaker 1: for quite something well since August basically, well it has

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Speaker 1: and one thing I think we have to recognize. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Chinese government has instituted a number of reforms,

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Speaker 1: and we also have to remember that the time frame

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Speaker 1: of the government is not the time frame of the markets.

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Speaker 1: This is going to play out not over weeks or months,

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Speaker 1: but over years. We're gonna be having this discussion a

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Speaker 1: year from now, probably five years from now. I think

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Speaker 1: you start by recognizing that there is a vibrant private

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Speaker 1: sector in China, but you also still a very bloated

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Speaker 1: public sector and state owned enterprises. Now, I think you've

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Speaker 1: heard some what I would view as constructive comments recently

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Speaker 1: about dealing with state on enterprises, dealing with the over

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Speaker 1: capacity which is causing deflation not just in China but

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Speaker 1: throughout the world, and I think that's the type of

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Speaker 1: thing that we want to look to see going forward.

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Speaker 1: But but then, how do you position within your job

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Speaker 1: as global strategist of emerging markets ex China? Is it

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Speaker 1: is an opportunity this weekend to study name the nations

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Speaker 1: or do you have to go like we're hearing from

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Speaker 1: many large cap multinational blue chips United States. I think

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Speaker 1: that our opportunities in emerging markets. I don't think that

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Speaker 1: the only way you play e M is by investing

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Speaker 1: in companies in the US that export to e M. UH.

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Speaker 1: The the value right now is you've got a lot

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Speaker 1: of segments of EM that are not only inexpensive, but

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Speaker 1: have been sold because of this drop in commodity prices.

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Speaker 1: And there is many parts of the emerging markets, particularly

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Speaker 1: in Asia, uh, some in Europe that benefit from lower

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Speaker 1: commodity prices as are hurt by lower commodity prices. So

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Speaker 1: this is when you start to set bright out the

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Speaker 1: weeks from the shafts in e M. You know, I look,

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Speaker 1: Russ uh, and let's get this in quickly if we can.

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Speaker 1: I want to come back and talk equity markets. Rush

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Speaker 1: rush your dollar call. I mean, I mean, is it

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Speaker 1: a breakout above a d X Y with attendants dollars stability, stability.

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Speaker 1: I think you're going to have the dollars still on

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Speaker 1: a multi year up trend, but you're gonna have a

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Speaker 1: lot of reversals. The dollar really has not done much

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Speaker 1: in recent months. But my view is that you still

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Speaker 1: have an economy in the US where there will be

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Speaker 1: some kind of monetary conditions over the next eighteen months.

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Speaker 1: And you've got economies in Europe and Japan that seemed

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Speaker 1: very intent on providing even more accommodation, whatever form that

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Speaker 1: may take, and that divergence and monetary conditions probably still

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Speaker 1: leads to some tail into the dollar over the next

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Speaker 1: one to two years. First costUS saying so much, he's

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Speaker 1: the black rock. We will continue really come back and

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Speaker 1: focus on equity markets as you looked at bonds with

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Speaker 1: Mr Gross of Janet's Capital earlier. Mike, let's recapitulate our

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Speaker 1: jobs statistics on first blush, second blush, and third blush.

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Speaker 1: This is a pretty good report. UH. There are, as

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Speaker 1: UH as one analysts put it, some quality problems with it.

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Speaker 1: The report is good in terms of employment to a

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Speaker 1: thousand jobs thirty thousand UH in the UH the revisions,

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Speaker 1: but average early earnings fell a tenth and hours of

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Speaker 1: work fell back by two tenths, so that's a bit

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Speaker 1: of a concern. Hard hard to square the two, but

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Speaker 1: interesting interesting numbers. Michael McKee and Tom came will continue

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Speaker 1: rust const roars with US, will move on through the morning,

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Speaker 1: making you better for your weekend reading futures up exactly

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Speaker 1: one point tipped out of bringing Michael R and get

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Speaker 1: the latest world in national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. Last night's Republican presidential debate was not

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Speaker 1: order fussing, but in the end all of the candidates

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Speaker 1: pledged to support whoever will be the nominee, including Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Marco ruby Ll tells ABC News this morning that Trump

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Speaker 1: is taking media attention away from the issues facing the candidates.

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Speaker 1: Much of the coverage is about the outrageous things he's saying,

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Speaker 1: as opposed to the serious public policy issues for which

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has no serious answer. We'll bring you more

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Speaker 1: on the Republican presidential race from former nominee Mitt Romney,

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Speaker 1: who will speak with Bloomberg Politics Managing editor Mark Halperin

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Speaker 1: at one thirty pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Television

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