1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. The global push into infrastructure, 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: breaking the IPO logjam in text, the financial stories that 3 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: sheepe are work cutting inflation without losing jobs. Do we 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: need rate cuts and if so, how many? Investing in 5 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: a time of geopolitical turmoil. 6 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 2: Through the eyes of the most influential voices. 7 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: Ten Rogueff economists at Harvard former FDIC had Shila Bert 8 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: ge CEO, Larry Kulp, San Francisco FED President Mary Daily Bloomberg. 9 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. 10 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: Markets hold their breath for snap elections in France and 11 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: Great Britain, China braces for the US elections, and Generative 12 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: AI continues to drive the US stock market higher. This 13 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. This week 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: Glenn Hubbard of Columbia Business School on dissatisfaction with incumbents. 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 3: We need a good dose of classical liberals like Adam 16 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 3: Smith brought back to life. 17 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: And Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group on Russia filling 18 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: a power void in West Africa. 19 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 4: The more that Russia is on the ground, the Russians 20 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 4: are going to end up also having control over some 21 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 4: critical nodes of the minerals that are necessary for a 22 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 4: transition energy revolution. 23 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: We start with the US economy and some signs that 24 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: the consumer may be pulling back has seen this week 25 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: in the retail sales numbers, and we welcome down our 26 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: very special contributar, Larry Summers of Harvard. So we had 27 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 1: the retail sales numbers which came in lower and expected 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: by the housing starts were really down substantially. Are we 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: seeing a slowing economy? 30 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 5: We may be, and it's certainly not at the pace 31 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 5: that it once was. I think it's a real question 32 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 5: whether we're really seeing a profound slowing or month to 33 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 5: month fluctuations. My guess is this is still in the 34 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 5: world of month to month fluxus situations with an underlying 35 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 5: picture around continuing growth. But you can't be sure, and 36 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 5: I'd certainly agree that the data has been more on 37 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 5: the slow side for the last month or two than 38 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 5: on the rapid side. 39 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: So last week we spoke. We talked about the possible 40 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: economic policies of a Donald Trump if he were returned 41 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 1: to the White House, because he had floated the idea 42 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: of maybe having tariffs replace some or all of income taxes. 43 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,399 Speaker 1: You were not very enthusiastic with that. Since then, he's 44 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: responded to you very specifically on a podcast called all 45 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 1: In where they asked him about well, how he responded 46 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 1: to your thoughts on tariff's and he said he respected you. 47 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: He gave you nice plaudit said, he respects you. You 48 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: speak your mind. Is I think what he said? But 49 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: at same time, he really likes tariffs, he said, because 50 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: it shows the power of a country, both economically and politically. Well, 51 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: what do you make of his endorsement of tariffs as 52 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:57,959 Speaker 1: a major tool of policy. 53 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 6: I don't see the evidence for his. 54 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 5: Belief. First of all, the tariffs he proposes are going 55 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 5: to be levied against Canada, They're going to be levied 56 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 5: against our traditional European allies. If they are a tool 57 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 5: of power and intimidation, it seems to me they should 58 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 5: be used much more selectively than he has proposed. Second, 59 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 5: when you launch attacks, then others respond and the whole 60 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 5: thing can spiral. The classic example of a major tariff 61 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 5: policy in American history was Smooth Hawley, and it contributed 62 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 5: to making the depression great. 63 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 6: As I look. 64 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:49,119 Speaker 5: Around the world at countries who have seen tariffs as 65 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 5: the center of their economic strategy to make a nationalist 66 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 5: point vis a vis other countries. The examples look like 67 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 5: places like that, like Argentina and a number of places 68 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 5: in Latin America where it has not been so successful. 69 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 6: So I'd like to see what. 70 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 5: The case. 71 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 7: Is. 72 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 5: But this is a case where it's about as universal 73 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 5: among economists who study these things that you shouldn't pursue 74 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 5: systematic across the board tariffs for long periods of time. 75 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: Let's talk about change, because there's an awful lot of 76 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: things that are changing around us right now. Whether it's 77 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: climate that you've talked about at fair amount, geopolitics, the 78 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 1: global economy, there are a lot of changes going at 79 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: the same time. Are we going through a particularly tumultuous 80 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: time of change right now? Do you think around us? 81 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 1: Or has it always been? 82 00:04:55,120 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 5: Thus, here's the sense I have, David. I was fortunate 83 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 5: enough to welcome baby granddaughter, Francis Joanne into the world 84 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 5: when my daughter had my first granddaughter, about ten days ago. 85 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 5: So I've been thinking about her life and it made 86 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 5: me think about my grandmother. My grandmother lived from nineteen 87 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 5: hundred to nineteen seventy four. She saw indoor plumbing come. 88 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 5: She saw electricity come. She saw a first telephone, then radio, 89 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 5: then TV movies come. She saw air conditioning. She saw antibiotics, 90 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 5: which made childhood death a rarity. She saw the ability 91 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 5: to no longer ride in horses, but instead to be 92 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 5: able to fly across the country in five hours. My 93 00:05:55,600 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 5: life almost now as long as hers was yours. We've 94 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 5: seen a lot of history. We've seen a lot of change. Yes, 95 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 5: we've seen computers. We've seen the cell phone. We've seen, yes, 96 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 5: the Bloomberg terminal, we've seen more modern financial markets. But 97 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 5: I think you'd have to agree that we've saw much, 98 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 5: much less change than my grandmother's generation did. I have 99 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 5: a suspicion that my granddaughter is going to witness history 100 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 5: like my grandmother did. And most importantly, I think we're 101 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 5: going to see a step change with what happens in 102 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 5: artificial intelligence. As I've said before, the wheel was awfully fundamental, 103 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 5: but once you have the wheel, you don't automatically get 104 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 5: more and better wheels. Same thing with electric but artificial 105 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 5: intelligence has the capacity to make better artificial intelligence, and 106 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 5: that puts in a kind of upward exponential ratchet that 107 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 5: isn't a feature of any other technological change. So my 108 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 5: daughter's going to witness seismic change, and the granddaughter is 109 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 5: going to witness seismic change, and the issue. 110 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 6: Is going to be can we manage it so we avoid. 111 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 5: The catastrophes that were also part of my grandmother's interval 112 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 5: on this earth. 113 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: Larry, thank you so very much for being with us 114 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: again this week. That's our special contriitor. Larry Summers of 115 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: Harvard Markets took a day off for the Juneteenth holiday 116 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: this week, but in the four days of trading, the 117 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,119 Speaker 1: S and P five hundred continues upward move, adding another 118 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: six ten percent to end the week at fifty four 119 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: to sixty five, which happens to be just above the 120 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: new median level of fifty four to fifty that our 121 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg l's are predicting for the end of the year. 122 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: The NASAC was flat for the week, as in Vidio 123 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: took a step back, and the yield and the tenure 124 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 1: ended the week up three basis points at four point 125 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: twenty five percent to take us through the week in 126 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: the markets. Welcome back now, Sanalvias High Franklin Templeton Fixed 127 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: Income Chief Investment Officer, Welcome back always good to have you. 128 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: So give us your take on what the markets told 129 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: us this week, if anything. 130 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 8: So, you know, what I find really quite interesting is 131 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 8: what markets didn't tell us, in the sense that, now 132 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 8: it's been a couple of weeks, we're actually seeing I 133 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 8: know that, you know, we talk about big sellers, big rallies. 134 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 8: We're talking about three basis points, four basis points relative 135 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 8: to what we've become accustomed to and fixed fixed in markets. 136 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 8: The last week, week and a half actually has been 137 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 8: pretty stable, you know, despite the fact that we've had 138 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 8: data going one direction data going the other direction. What 139 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 8: I think is quite interesting is how little fixed in 140 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 8: market have actually moved. 141 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 9: We're largely going sideways here. 142 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: So we heard from Lurie Summer's just now saying he's 143 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 1: not sure he can see a trend yet. The numbers 144 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: do seem to be a bit softer. We certain retail 145 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: sales housing starts this week. But do you agree that 146 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 1: is there a trend you can discern so far? 147 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 9: No, I would agree with him. 148 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 8: Here's the thing. There are two things. One is that 149 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 8: it is too soon to say that we're seeing a trend. 150 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 8: The second thing is, even if we are, we are 151 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 8: coming off an incredibly strong economy, we need to cool 152 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 8: down a little bit. I would say that the type 153 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 8: of cooling we've seen so far is probably generally welcome 154 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 8: for the FED. We have been growing beyond potential now 155 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 8: for a while, and we've had more infasion than we need. 156 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 8: We've been growing above potential, and unemployment is coming off. 157 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,839 Speaker 9: Forty year loose. We can't expect to stay there. 158 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 2: So you know, this is. 159 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 9: Some slowing, but I repeat. 160 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 8: I'd say it's probably somewhat welcome to those people making 161 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 8: decisions at. 162 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: The FED so soon as you know so well. Here 163 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg we pay most attention to FED. What's the 164 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: FED good to think about the economy? We taking a 165 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: thing about the numbers? Is there any message you think 166 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: going forward to the FED right now? As we keep waiting, 167 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: but are they going to cut it? They're not going 168 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: to cut When are they going to cut? 169 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 8: You know, honestly, at this stage, the market has accepted 170 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:21,599 Speaker 8: that the FED is not going to give it the 171 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 8: outrageous number of cuts that the market was demanding at 172 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 8: the start of the year. We're looking at still less 173 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 8: than two cuts. It's around one and three quarters so far. 174 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 8: Maybe the FED cuts twice, maybe it cuts once. The 175 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 8: bottom line is I think what's more interesting in many 176 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 8: ways is the total number of cuts, where I think, 177 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 8: here I'm still not in agreement with what the FED 178 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 8: is forecasting, which would take FED funds all the way 179 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 8: sub for not next year but the year after. Overall, 180 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 8: whether we go for one cut or two cuts this 181 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 8: year is almost besides the point. The FED will FED 182 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 8: wants to cut, and I think they will probably have 183 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 8: space to cut by the end of the year. I 184 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 8: just don't think it's going to be a dramatic series 185 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 8: of cuts absent some exogynous. 186 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 9: Shock of some kind, I'd say, and it's not my baseline. 187 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 8: Right now, but of course things happen, and I think 188 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 8: that's really important right to think about where the market 189 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 8: is today and where it's come from. 190 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: So what about data coming from outside the United States? 191 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 1: We sid tend to focus on economic data here what's 192 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: going with the FED, but we also have, for example, 193 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: elections coming from France and the UK. There are a 194 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: lot of things going on around the world, and I. 195 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 9: Think that's actually something. 196 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 8: It almost feels the combination of summer and the calm 197 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 8: before the storm in some ways because You're absolutely right. 198 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 8: We are seeing we are seeing political volatility over the pond, 199 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 8: without a doubt, and I think the one area where 200 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 8: we are seeing it is probably in the dollar. The 201 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 8: dollar strength probably does reflect a certain amount of anxiousness 202 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 8: about French elections. The UK elections are perhaps more predetermined, 203 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,439 Speaker 8: and that's coming up in July fourth, and importantly, our 204 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,559 Speaker 8: own set of elections next week I think will probably 205 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 8: have the market much more focused after that on the 206 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 8: outcome to our own elections. So yeah, political, you know, 207 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 8: politically induced volatility is likely to probably go up, and 208 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 8: that's something which we're paying a lot of attention to, 209 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 8: looking to take advantage of it mainly. 210 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 1: So now, it's always great to have you with us, 211 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. As Sanadasai of Franklin Templeton coming 212 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 1: up the economics behind the hostility to incumbents around the 213 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: world with Glenn Hubbard of the Columbia Business School. 214 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 3: People are disaffected with the status quo and with the 215 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 3: fact that status quo politicians, whether it's in the United 216 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,599 Speaker 3: States or in continental Europe, are just telling them, you know, 217 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 3: like life is fine. 218 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,199 Speaker 1: That's next on Wall Street Week. I'm Bloomberg. 219 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 220 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 221 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,079 Speaker 1: This is Waltreet Week. I'm David Weston. As we move 222 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: past elections in Europe, India, and South Africa and toward 223 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: them in France, the United Kingdom and the United States, 224 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: the one constant seems to be large portions of the 225 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: population very dissatisfied with their economic circumstances. To help us, 226 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: don't understand where the disaffection may be rooted. Welcome back now, 227 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: Glenn Hubbard of the Columbia Business School. Doctor Hubbard served 228 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: as chair of President George W. Bush's Economic Council and 229 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,079 Speaker 1: is the author, most recently of The Wall and the Bridge. 230 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: So welcome back. Great to have you here taking it. 231 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: So go right to that question, because people seem to 232 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: be a lot of people seem to be very disaffected 233 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: in the United States, but also in Europe, even India, 234 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: and yet the numbers, if you look at the numbers, growth, numbers, unemployment, 235 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 1: I'm not sure why they're so unhappy. 236 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 3: Well, it's a great question, and I think the American 237 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 3: people are looking for more than come on, man from 238 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 3: the White House, that they're looking for an explanation. And 239 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 3: I think it's the numbers are right and they're not 240 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 3: being fudged. But under the hood, let's start with inflation. 241 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 3: So many people say, well, economists say, inflation rates are 242 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 3: coming down, but the prices of things I'm buying are 243 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 3: still higher than what I'm used to and my wages 244 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,439 Speaker 3: are not keeping up. That is a real problem, And 245 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 3: inflation stands for a problem of unintended consequences of elite's decisions. 246 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 3: And it's not the only one. We did it in globalization, 247 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 3: We've done it in technological change, we did it in 248 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 3: the global financial crisis. I think gaverage people might be 249 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 3: onto something here. 250 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: At the same time, Real wages are going up at 251 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: this point in the United States, aren't they. People don't 252 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: seem to appreciate that. 253 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 3: Well, I think they finally are, but only modestly. And 254 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 3: I think people are fearful about the future as well. 255 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 3: We're being offered policy platforms, frankly by both the major 256 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 3: party candidates that don't really have growth at the center. 257 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: Well, what would it take to get growth? 258 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 3: Well, I think it focuses on getting productivity growth and 259 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 3: getting people able to work productively in the economy that 260 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 3: we have, and productivity growth is about promoting investment, but 261 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 3: it's also about promoting innovation, you know, rather than massive 262 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 3: industrial policy subsidies, why not a lot more money for 263 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 3: basic research for the new technologies of tomorrow. 264 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: Where was the last time we had real productivity growth 265 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: in the United States? 266 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 3: Well, right now we are actually experiencing productivity growth. But 267 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 3: the real booms in productivity growth were the period after 268 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 3: the Second World War to the nineteen seventies, and then 269 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 3: again in the mid nineteen nineties to about the mid 270 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 3: of the first decade in the two thousands. There's no 271 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 3: reason we can't have better productivity growth, particularly with all 272 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 3: the encouraging news about artificial intelligence. 273 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: But with both of those booms that you've described after 274 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 1: World War Two and then in the mid nineteen nineties, 275 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: how much of that was technological so almost it was 276 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: actually changing the way we made things, which made it 277 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: much more productive. 278 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 3: Technology played a very big role, particularly in the second episode. 279 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 3: But we're on the cusp of very major possibilities from 280 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 3: artificial intelligence. The question is do we have the political 281 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 3: will and skill to prepare people for that world because 282 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 3: the pace of chan is going to be very fast. 283 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: You understand economics so well, but also understand it from 284 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: inside the White House where you were. How do you 285 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 1: bridge the gap between what good economics would give you 286 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: and what the people want? How do you make them 287 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: want good economics? 288 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's a couple of things. First of all, 289 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 3: you need to understand why people feel the way they do. 290 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,479 Speaker 3: A good politician, and I would argue a good economist 291 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 3: is out there visiting with people, trying to see what's 292 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 3: on people's minds. And you have to pose economics as 293 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 3: the solution to a real problem. You know, when economists 294 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 3: love markets and I love markets. The reason to love 295 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 3: markets is not because markets are great, it's because what 296 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 3: they produce. And we have to always make the connection 297 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 3: between an economic mechanism and really helping people flourish. 298 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: Where is that being done well around the world today, 299 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: If anywhere. 300 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 3: Gosh, it would be hard to find. We have done 301 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 3: it in this country before. We did it in the 302 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 3: nineteenth century, we did it in the middle of the 303 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 3: twentieth century. We have done it. 304 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: I would argue we need. 305 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 3: A good dose of classical liberals like Adam Smith brought 306 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 3: back to life. 307 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: That's fascinating to what extent is the problem because we've 308 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: subsidized so much of industry. I mean, we had the 309 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: Great Financial Crisis, and I think most of us agree 310 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 1: there had to be some intervention there. We had the pandemic. 311 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 1: I think most would agree something had to be done 312 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 1: about economy was about to a standstill. At the same time, 313 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 1: we have the government playing in the game a lot 314 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 1: more than just refereeing. At this point, it's a big problem. 315 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 3: I mean, the clinical answer is that risks misallocating a 316 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 3: lot of capital. But the more fundamental answer is government 317 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 3: is not good at two things. One picking winners, which 318 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 3: is what this is about, and more important, letting go 319 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 3: of losers. The fear is that these subsidies become quasi 320 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 3: permanent entitlements from the state that dull competition. You know, 321 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:54,239 Speaker 3: decades ago, people like Hayek, great economists, Nobel Laureate had 322 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 3: this figured out and his essay on the Use of knowledge. 323 00:17:56,640 --> 00:18:00,080 Speaker 3: You're better off having markets figure these things out of 324 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 3: government being behind the scenes, maybe with new technologies, but 325 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 3: not subsidies. 326 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,880 Speaker 1: As we look at some of the expression, I would 327 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: think of satisfaction, maybe even anger. In Europe we had 328 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 1: with the problem intary elections. Some of what we're seeing 329 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 1: in polling here, is it because people think that they 330 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: see a better route or they're just so unhappy with 331 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: the current one they'll take anything because it's not clear 332 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: to me always that there's a cohesive theory of economics. 333 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 1: On the other side, that makes a lot of sense. 334 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 6: It's a great point. 335 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 3: I think people are disaffected with the status quo and 336 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 3: with the fact that status quo politicians, whether it's the 337 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 3: United States or in continental Europe, are just telling them, 338 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 3: you know, life is fine. I don't really see articulate plans. 339 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 3: On the other side. The idea that we would replace 340 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 3: mushy industrial policy with tariffs is like, we're going back 341 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 3: to a mercantilism debate from the eighteenth century. 342 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: And we talked about some of what's going wrong right now. 343 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 1: But you have a piece now out of National Affairs 344 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: talking about sort of economic models different of the years 345 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: and why maybe we need maybe a new model take 346 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 1: us through what we have been through and where we 347 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 1: need to go. 348 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,239 Speaker 3: Well, you know, the historical debate over mercantilism is one 349 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 3: we're living through again today. The traditional response from economists 350 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 3: is you need to focus on markets. Yet as economists, 351 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 3: we often make that sound very abstract, and why should 352 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 3: you care about markets? The reason is that they are 353 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 3: delivering the best outcomes for all of us in the economy. Now, 354 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 3: markets don't always work perfectly. The title of the piece 355 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 3: I wrote was markets for the People. When would you 356 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 3: step in? You'd step in for national defense reasons, for example, 357 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 3: you would step into support basic research and innovation. But 358 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 3: we need that kind of a new. 359 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 1: Focus, and there are massive slowdowns the Great Depression, I 360 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 1: mean the Great financial crisis, I assume where you would say, yeah, 361 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: the government does need to step in there. You can't 362 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: just let the markets bail us out of that. 363 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 3: Well, correct, But let's go back to the intuition and 364 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 3: economists like Cain's had at the time of the depression. 365 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,400 Speaker 3: It was it's really the notion of the state being 366 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 3: a kind of actor of last resort in a true crisis, 367 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 3: you know, really awful events, the state steps in. But 368 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 3: now the state keeps stepping in. When does the state 369 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 3: not step in? That's not what Caines had in mind. 370 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 3: And it's not even a question about budget as much 371 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 3: as it is dulling the competitive senses of the private economy. 372 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 3: If the state is always going to bail us out. 373 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: Is it a question of democracy as well, ironically in 374 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 1: the sense that once the people see that they can 375 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: get bailed out, then there's sort of an impetus to 376 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: have their elective representatives bailing out. And people want to 377 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 1: get re elected, so they say, let's make sure we 378 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: smooth over all the rough patches. 379 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 3: Exactly so, except the problem is we can't do it. 380 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 3: If you look ahead in the next twenty years of 381 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 3: the nation's fiscal policy, we are going to need to 382 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 3: spend more on aging Americans. We're going to have to 383 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 3: raise spending on defense. No one seems excited about raising taxes. 384 00:20:58,440 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 3: This math doesn't work. 385 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: How do we create a society where we have equal 386 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 1: opportunity without guaranteeing results? 387 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 6: Great question. 388 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 3: I think we need to have a right to opportunity, 389 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 3: much as we have property rights in markets. But a 390 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 3: right to an opportunity is not the right to a result. So, 391 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 3: to be specific, a right to an opportunity could be 392 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 3: much more support for education, for training for places that 393 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 3: have been left behind, for the government supporting much more 394 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 3: in the way of basic research. All of that's very 395 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 3: different than a system that says results only matter. 396 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: How do you converensate for very large differences where people 397 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 1: start out in the process. I mean, we all differ 398 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: of where we start out in a matter of where 399 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: we went to school, where we grew up, whatever. But 400 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: there are some huge differences here where some people are 401 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: well behind in terms of their wealth, in terms of 402 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: their background. How do we make sure that they have 403 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 1: an equal opportunity that compensates for what they've been deprived 404 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: of for generations, for example, the black white divide. 405 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 3: It's a great question. There are a lot of reasons 406 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 3: we have black white wealth differentials, some of which sadly 407 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 3: come from public policy errors over decades. I don't think 408 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 3: we can fix that overnight, but I think what we 409 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,239 Speaker 3: can do very quickly is make sure that everybody has 410 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 3: access to the same opportunities and have a system that 411 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 3: encourages work, encourages wealth building for anyone who wants to 412 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 3: do so. 413 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: Glenns through so much of your work, you often come 414 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 1: back to education and education, not just getting a Bash's degree. 415 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: It can be trade schools, you have various education You talked, 416 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: for example, about land grant schools in your book The 417 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: Wall and the Bridge. But whenever we have money to 418 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: spend We don't seem to spend it on the education. 419 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 1: We find all sorts of other things. We can have 420 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: wars we spend money on. We can spend all sorts 421 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: of money on infrastructure, which is a good and useful thing. 422 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: I don't ever hear that coming up to the top 423 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: of the list in the agenda. Politically, well, it's got to, and. 424 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 3: We've done it successfully at least twice. So the land 425 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 3: grant college movement was a decision by political powers that 426 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 3: be that the country needed a different set of skills. 427 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,120 Speaker 3: We were going from an agrarian economy to a manufacturing 428 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 3: economy after the Second World War. The GI Bill was 429 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 3: the same kind of intervention. Today, with globalization, with technological 430 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 3: advance and especially new developments and artificial intelligence, we need 431 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,719 Speaker 3: that kind of moonshot approach to education and it's got 432 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 3: to come up to the. 433 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 6: Top of the list. 434 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 3: Unfortunately, in the twenty twenty four campaign, I'm not hearing it. 435 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,239 Speaker 1: No, I don't hear it either. That's right, But let 436 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 1: me ask you about that, because higher education in this 437 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 1: country right now is under a microscope. There's a lot 438 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: of criticism of it from all sorts of different directions. 439 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: Would it make sense to write a big check for 440 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 1: higher education right now without reform of higher education because 441 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:46,679 Speaker 1: not all of us think it's heading in the right 442 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: direction on its own. 443 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 3: Completely agree with that, but I don't think elite private 444 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 3: universities are the problem or the solution to what we're 445 00:23:55,119 --> 00:24:00,439 Speaker 3: just talking about. Rather, it's community colleges, it's vocational training. 446 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 3: That's where we need to be spending a lot of 447 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 3: money writing big checks to the Harvard's and Columbias of 448 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,360 Speaker 3: the world from the federal government. I'm not sure it's 449 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 3: good for that problem. It may be good for basic 450 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 3: research or things like that, but yes, our elite universities 451 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 3: need to get their house in order and fast. 452 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 1: It's called an admission against interest. On your part, coming 453 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: from Columbia business schools say yeah, exactly. So are you 454 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 1: seeing any movement and it can be just an intellectual 455 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: movement right now, not even a political one in a 456 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 1: direction you think is constructive in the United States. Is 457 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 1: anybody taking a leadership position saying some of the things 458 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:30,880 Speaker 1: you're saying. 459 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 3: Besides you, you do see it in Congress from individuals. 460 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 3: Even in the presidential campaign, Governor Haley had a lot 461 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 3: of these themes, both from her personal experience as governor 462 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 3: of South Carolina and in campaign themes. Whoever wins in 463 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 3: November is going to confront these challenges and is using 464 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 3: a model that needs reform. So I'm very hopeful of 465 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 3: these ideas and ideas like them come to bear. 466 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: Do you think that it would have any appeal to 467 00:24:58,600 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 1: the masses. 468 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,360 Speaker 3: I think yes, because this actually works. You can actually 469 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:09,120 Speaker 3: raise people's living standards, in their flourishing in their local areas. 470 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 3: Tariffs aren't going to do that, mushy industrial policy isn't 471 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 3: going to do that. People are going to look for 472 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 3: something different. 473 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Glenn, It's always great to have 474 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 1: you as Glenn Hubbard of the Columbia Business School. Coming up, 475 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 1: what the turmoil in France and in its former West 476 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,400 Speaker 1: African colonies could mean for investors. We talked with Ian 477 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: Bremmer of the Eurasia Group. 478 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 4: It's not as if the United States is competing with 479 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 4: Russia for influence over these governments. Rather, these are governments 480 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 4: that the Americans would rather see out of power. 481 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 482 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:48,160 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 483 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 484 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. When it 485 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: comes to geopolitics, we tend to focus on you or 486 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 1: Gaza or Taiwan. And when it comes to powers rival 487 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: in the United States, we focus most often these days 488 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,680 Speaker 1: on China, but sometimes overlooked our developments in West Africa, 489 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: where increasingly the rival is not China but Russia, with 490 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,439 Speaker 1: potential economic as well as security implications for the United States. 491 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: To give us a status report, we welcome now Ian Bremmer. 492 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,399 Speaker 1: He's founder and president of the Eurasia Group and author, 493 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 1: most recently of the Power of Crisis. So Ian, welcome back. 494 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: Great to have you here. As I said, we tend 495 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: not to focus on places like Nizier and Chad and Burkina, 496 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: Faso and things, but there's a lot of developments going 497 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: on now there that are not particularly good for the 498 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 1: US or even US investors. 499 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 6: Yeah. 500 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,919 Speaker 4: Well, I mean there are almost no journalists on the ground, 501 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 4: but that doesn't mean it doesn't matter, and this part 502 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 4: of the world does matter. It matters in particularly because 503 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 4: there are a lot a lot of resources that are 504 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,119 Speaker 4: very important for industrial processes, especially as we turn to 505 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 4: transition energy away from coal and towards you know, batteries, 506 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 4: and they were I here a lot of what we 507 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 4: get out of the ground from these countries. But governance 508 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,959 Speaker 4: in this part of the world is very poor. Indeed, 509 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 4: explosion of insurgencies, Islamic radicalism and very poor local governance 510 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 4: with a lot of military coups that have happened in 511 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 4: these countries, and some of the most authoritarian, most brutal 512 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 4: leaders in the world want to turn to a country 513 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 4: that will provide them support for security and not ask 514 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 4: any questions at all about their human rights abuses and 515 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 4: governance on the ground. 516 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,919 Speaker 6: And you know the best country for that at scale, 517 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 6: that's Russia. 518 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 1: Well, and to speak of that, I mean it's I 519 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: guess a reconstitution of the Wagner Group now called Africa 520 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,359 Speaker 1: Corps that has moved in. They actually reportedly have some 521 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 1: troops on the ground that displaced some US and French forces. 522 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 6: That's right. 523 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 4: You know, in many of these countries they have told 524 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 4: the Americans the French to get out after the military 525 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 4: has taken over the leadership of the country and they 526 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 4: want to have the need paramilitaries, they need advanced military equipment, 527 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 4: and they're willing to pay for it, and if they 528 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,680 Speaker 4: don't have hard currency, they can give you a percentage 529 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 4: or control or an interest in state controlled companies on 530 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 4: the ground that have access to these minerals. And the 531 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,159 Speaker 4: Russians are more than happy to do that. Now that 532 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 4: used to be through the Wagner Group. Of course, the 533 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 4: Wagner Group quite historically imploded when mister Progosion, who ran 534 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 4: it and had been a very close and formal advisor 535 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,360 Speaker 4: to Putin, turned against Putin. It has since been reconstituted 536 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 4: with many of the same people and all the same 537 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 4: weapons on the ground. So if these countries push the 538 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 4: Americans out, I mean the US historically has had a 539 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,960 Speaker 4: fair amount of interest in what's called the Gorilla Belt, 540 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 4: and here I mean like gorilla the animals, as opposed 541 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 4: to gorilla the illicit fighters through Central Africa, and the 542 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 4: US has a lot of troops on the ground, has 543 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 4: provided humanitarian aid and is trying to help provide security. 544 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,960 Speaker 4: But when you have countries like Chad, like Nigre, like 545 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 4: Burkina Fasso that are run by military juntas that overthrow 546 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 4: their legitimate government, the US policy is containment. It's to 547 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 4: try to ensure that the instability of that country doesn't 548 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 4: spill over into other countries that the US can work with. 549 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 4: So I mean it's not as if the United States 550 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 4: is competing with Russia for influence over these governments. No, Rather, 551 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 4: these are governments that the Americans would rather see out 552 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 4: of power. 553 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,120 Speaker 1: Let's come back to where you started with the possible 554 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 1: ramlocations Economically, particularly when it comes to energy transition because 555 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 1: of some of those raw materials that really exist those uranium, 556 00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 1: certainly lithium, baux side others. One other rapiplications for investors. 557 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 1: If in fact Russia's influence continues to grow in West. 558 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 4: Africa, well it's going to be a greater cost because again, 559 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 4: these are countries that are going to have resources that 560 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 4: will be exploited in illicit ways, in legal ways, using 561 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 4: child labor for example. They're not going to be welcomed 562 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 4: in supply chain by many advanced industrial democracies in the world, 563 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 4: and even when they are, the Russians are going to 564 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 4: have a preference to ensure that the supplies are first 565 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 4: and foremost given to friends of Russia with preferential long 566 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 4: term contracts. China, of course, being the country in that 567 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,239 Speaker 4: category that has the greatest need for them, and there 568 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 4: are a lot of resources here. I mean, the Russian 569 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 4: government has secured direct access to I mean major gold 570 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 4: reserves in the Central African Republic as well as in Sudan, 571 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 4: platinum in Zimbabwe, diamonds in Zimbabwe, as well as the 572 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 4: coar uranium. 573 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 6: As you mentioned in Namibia. 574 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 4: Right now, the United States still gets uranium from Russia, 575 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 4: and Congress is trying to stop that. They're trying to 576 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 4: actually ensure there's money to increase production in the United 577 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 4: States and with friends so that if the US is 578 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 4: going to start building reactors again. You've seen the Bill 579 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 4: Gates announcements on your own Bloomberg that they don't have 580 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 4: to get it from Russia. 581 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,080 Speaker 1: And West Africa has traditionally historically been a zone of 582 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 1: influence for France because they colonized it. At the same time, 583 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 1: mister Macrone right now is distracted with a few other 584 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,240 Speaker 1: things closer to home, where this snap election he's called 585 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 1: less than three weeks way. Now give us a sense 586 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 1: of what apossible ravocations of this are. 587 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 4: You know, Macron's own party Center Party lost historically seventeen 588 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 4: points under the national rally far right of Marine La 589 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 4: penn and so on the back of that really embarrassing, 590 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 4: much larger than a spected loss, and by the way, 591 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 4: historic over fifty percent of French registered vote is turned 592 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 4: out to vote in this European parliamentary election. That doesn't 593 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 4: sound high, but for a European parliamentary election with not 594 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 4: much at stake, it's by far the highest that France 595 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,480 Speaker 4: has ever had. So huge embarrassment, it felt like he 596 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 4: was going to get censored by the government over the 597 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 4: course by the parliament over the course of the fall. 598 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 4: It meant that his budget wasn't going to get through, 599 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 4: he wasn't going to be able to continue to be 600 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 4: fiscally responsible. So he decided to call a snap election, 601 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:38,600 Speaker 4: which in France means three weeks of campaigning and then 602 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 4: they go and vote. 603 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 6: And the idea for mccron being if he wins. 604 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 4: Because you'll have seventy percent turnout for a parliamentary election 605 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 4: as opposed to fifty for the par European parliamentary elections, 606 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 4: that suddenly his party will do better. He'll be able 607 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 4: to scare people away from voting for the far left 608 00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,120 Speaker 4: or the far right. But the left wing parties have 609 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,480 Speaker 4: all come together and they are working to not run 610 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 4: candidates against each other in parliament. 611 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 6: So that's a big problem for the Center. 612 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 4: And the average French citizen doesn't oppose, doesn't believe that 613 00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,960 Speaker 4: La Penn and her party is a threat to democracy. 614 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,959 Speaker 4: Only forty percent say that she is that they are 615 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 4: compared to eighty percent David twenty years ago. So look, 616 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 4: anything can happen. But right now these were only a 617 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 4: week and a half away. These elections look very bad 618 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 4: for Macron, very dangerous. And if Lea Penn and the 619 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:39,960 Speaker 4: National Rally are able to capture government and her party 620 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 4: takes the premiership, well then you know, anything in the 621 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 4: European Union that requires agreement of all the parliaments she 622 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 4: will be opposed to. 623 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 1: And it's always so helpful to talk with you. Thank 624 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,320 Speaker 1: you so much. That's Ian Brenner of the Eurasia Group. 625 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 1: Just when you think it can't get any worse, it can, so, 626 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 1: wrote Nicholas Sparks in his two thousand and five novel 627 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,000 Speaker 1: At a First Sight. But with no disrespect to mister Sparks, 628 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 1: it's a cinement I expressed often and in just those 629 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 1: terms when I ran ABC News starting in the late 630 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 1: nineteen nineties. At the time Good Morning America, that was 631 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 1: our flagship morning show, was struggling. There had been a 632 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 1: series of changes, both behind the camera and in front 633 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,360 Speaker 1: of it, and each one of them made an assumption 634 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: that things were so bad that they simply could not 635 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,879 Speaker 1: get any worse, and each and every time they did 636 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,880 Speaker 1: get worse. By the end of nineteen ninety eight, I 637 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,520 Speaker 1: could no longer tell what was the problem, because everything 638 00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 1: seemed to be and so we went bolder, moving beyond 639 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,080 Speaker 1: just not making it worse to actually making it better. 640 00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: We moved Charlie Gibson back into the role where we 641 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,399 Speaker 1: knew the audience loved him, and paired him with none 642 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,719 Speaker 1: other than Diane Sawyer, the star of primetime news and 643 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 1: the biggest audience magnet we had. And that's when things 644 00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 1: finally turned around, adding almost twenty five percent to our 645 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,520 Speaker 1: audience overnight. It's one thing to turn around a program, 646 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 1: it's quite another to turn around an entire company. Under 647 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,160 Speaker 1: Jack Welch, Ge grew to be the envy of the 648 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 1: corporate world as it expanded its reach into just about 649 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,760 Speaker 1: every corner of the world. But then things turned south 650 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: and accelerated under Jeff immelf as the market cap fell 651 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,239 Speaker 1: from over four hundred and fifty billion dollars to just 652 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 1: over one hundred billion. 653 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 6: We had good businesses, good people, good initiatives, but at 654 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,799 Speaker 6: the end of the day, the stock price lagged. There 655 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:30,759 Speaker 6: are some things that didn't work. 656 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 1: Just when it looked like things could not get worse, 657 00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 1: Ge turned to Larry Kulp, who, instead of trying to 658 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,759 Speaker 1: fix the company as it was, decided to sell some 659 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,919 Speaker 1: parts of it off, pay down debt, and split into 660 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 1: three strong businesses centered on aerospace, medical, technology, and energy. 661 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 1: Those three companies now have a combined market cap of 662 00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,040 Speaker 1: nearly two hundred and seventy billion dollars. 663 00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:57,800 Speaker 3: I've long believed that you're far better off being strong 664 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 3: rather than just big, and that was a little bit 665 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 3: of the evolution of our conversation. 666 00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,280 Speaker 6: We're not going to be an all singing, all dancing 667 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 6: GE going forward. 668 00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,279 Speaker 1: It's not just television where you can go from bad 669 00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,600 Speaker 1: to worse pretty quickly and requires some radical moves. The 670 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 1: Washington Post publisher was concerned with where the newspaper was 671 00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 1: headed and decided to change the editor abruptly, replacing a 672 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,960 Speaker 1: veteran female journalist from the Associated Press with a British 673 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 1: male investigative reporter whom he promised would restore an even 674 00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 1: greater degree of investigative rigor to the Post. But after 675 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 1: questions about how he'd done some of that investigative work 676 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,919 Speaker 1: at the Sunday Times, his plans to join the Post 677 00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,640 Speaker 1: this week were scrapped. And trust me, however, bad things 678 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 1: looked for management at the Post. Trying to make a 679 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: change at the top and failing has got to make 680 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,520 Speaker 1: it worse. But maybe the most glaring examples of people 681 00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: making bold moves, apparently in the hope that things can't 682 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,720 Speaker 1: get any worse is in politics. Prime Minister Richid Sumac 683 00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,359 Speaker 1: looks to have done that in calling an early snap 684 00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 1: election of brit when polls showed his party well behind 685 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:03,640 Speaker 1: the opposition. 686 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,560 Speaker 6: Now it's the movement for Britain to choose its future. 687 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 1: To decide whether we want to build on the progress 688 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 1: we have made or risk going back to square one 689 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:17,320 Speaker 1: with no plan and no certainty. And not to be outdone, 690 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,520 Speaker 1: President mccron of France has now called his own snap 691 00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,520 Speaker 1: election in the aftermath of his parties being routed in 692 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,440 Speaker 1: European parliamentary elections. 693 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 10: He's kind of got a reputation in the past for 694 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,719 Speaker 10: having taken enormous risks. He took an enormous risk in 695 00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:35,080 Speaker 10: running for president without an established party. It has left 696 00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,840 Speaker 10: open a wide range of outcomes. 697 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 1: But then again, maybe in politics, sometimes things can't get worse, 698 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,400 Speaker 1: thing can actually work. Here's then candidate Donald Trump on 699 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,640 Speaker 1: the campaign trail in twenty sixteen. 700 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,200 Speaker 7: Over three thousand people have been shot in Chicago since 701 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 7: January first of this year, three thousand people. There's a 702 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:02,560 Speaker 7: shooting on average every two hours. To those suffering and hurting, 703 00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,840 Speaker 7: I say, what do you have to lose? I'll fix it. 704 00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,279 Speaker 7: Vote for Donald Trump. I mean that, what do you 705 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:12,480 Speaker 7: have to lose? It can't get any worse. 706 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:16,520 Speaker 1: Despite his pitch, mister Trump didn't win over too many 707 00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 1: of those black voters by saying they had nothing to lose. 708 00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 1: He won only eight percent of their votes in that election. 709 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,359 Speaker 1: But then again, we have to remember he did win 710 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,120 Speaker 1: the election. That does it. For this episode of Wall 711 00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,600 Speaker 1: Street Week, I'm David Weston. See you next week.