WEBVTT - 11. Tail End 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:07.480 I'm floating in water, naked. Salt burns my eyes, but 0:00:07.560 --> 0:00:11.280 it doesn't matter. There of no use. Everything is black. 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.000 I hold my hand an inch from my face, but 0:00:15.360 --> 0:00:20.440 I can't see my fingers. Total silence. I'm in an 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:25.560 isolation tank. Picture a big horizontal egg, half filled with water. 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:29.480 You climb in, pull down the hatch, seal yourself in, 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:36.080 and float. The idea is to eliminate sensory overload, relieve anxiety, 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:44.240 boost creativity, focus, or conversely go blank. I don't zen out, though, 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:48.520 I think about this story, about how the missing men 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:53.040 likely crashed into water and drowned, About the violence of 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:57.760 nature and the brutality of loss, About my burning eyes. 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:07.520 From my heart Media, This is Missing in Alaska, the 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:10.959 story of two congressmen who vanished in nineteen two, and 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:13.520 my quest to figure out what happened to them. I'm 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:25.920 your host, John Wallzac. Full disclosure, This was supposed to 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:29.080 be our final episode, but we're getting so many new 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:32.479 leads that we'll likely be back in the future with updates. 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:36.760 For now, though, let me examine sixteen critical questions about 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:40.959 the disappearance and give you some unexpected answers. You'll hear 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:43.720 it back and forth between me and Paul Deckett are 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:49.000 supervising producer one. Is it really so bizarre for a 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:53.480 small plane to disappear in Alaska and never be found. Yes, 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.760 of course planes do vanish in Alaska without a trace, 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.840 but it's not the norm. In nineteen two, Air Force 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:07.760 Major Henry Stocker, the search commander, told reporters, quote, of 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:11.000 what we're looking for, we locate. Of the previous twelve 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:14.799 hundred planes to disappear, one official said only three had 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:19.040 never been found. An Air Force document I obtained says, quote, 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:22.000 had the aircraft or its occupants have been able to 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:25.280 send an electronic signal, the probability of detection of this 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:29.959 signal was. The probability of detection of fires or other 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:35.280 visual signals from survivors was the probability of detection of 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:38.600 the aircraft if intact in the search area was an 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:43.280 excess of nine. The probability of locating aircraft, wreckage or 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:47.639 survivors without fires or signaling devices was an excess of 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:53.280 in all search areas, and an excess of in the 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:58.480 highest probability area end quote. So, according to the Air Force, 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.960 there was a chance of finding wreckage in the highest 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:07.000 probability surge area, but still nothing, no debris, no oil 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:11.680 slick nothing from the plane. And even when planes do disappear, 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:16.280 they're often located years or decades later. Take the case 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:19.280 of Clearance Road, a U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:22.040 official who vanished on a small plane in Alaska in 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:26.359 nineteen fifty. Despite a hundred and forty seven thousand square 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:30.800 miles search, his plane was never found either until nineteen 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.960 seventy nine, when hikers stumbled upon it in a remote 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:38.240 part of the Brooks Range, high above the Arctic Circle two. 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:42.920 Where did the plane crash, probably into Prince William Sound, 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:47.360 somewhere between Portage Pass and Henson Brook Island. The last 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:50.000 time anyone heard from the plane was right before it 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:53.600 entered the pass, but searchers found no wreckage in the past, 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:56.080 nor has any sign of it surfaced there in the 0:03:56.160 --> 0:04:00.760 last fifty years. We also have a critical clue. Around 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:04.800 am on the morning of October six, nineteen seventy two, 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:08.680 at least one to three people described in various accounts 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:13.200 as a dock worker, construction worker, and or fisherman, heard 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:17.120 a small plane fly over Whittier, The only plane in 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:20.000 the vicinity of Whittier at that time was the baggage 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:23.480 Boggs plane, so it seems that the missing plane did 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:26.920 make it through Portage Pass over Whittier and onto Prince 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:30.360 William Sound. At that point, it would have been about 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:34.000 seventy five miles from Johnstone Point on the northern tip 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.760 of Hension Brook Island. At Johnstone there was a radio 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:41.039 relay that would have allowed the pilot, Don John's to 0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:44.880 speak with the flight service specialist in Anchorage, but Don 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:51.159 never radioed in after crossing through Portage Pass. Why. There 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:56.440 are a few possible explanations. Don's radio broke at that 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.200 very moment, right after he crossed through Portage Pass, but 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:05.120 before he was within range of Johnstone. Verdict possible, but 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:12.040 very unlikely. Since Dawn wasn't required to make contact at Johnstone, 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.520 he chose not to, so he actually made it past 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.920 Hinsion Brook without checking in. But Don was known to 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:22.360 radio in three to four times when flying between Anchorage 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.240 and Juno, and he probably would have wanted to check 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:28.159 in to see if there were any new weather updates. 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:36.440 Verdict possible but unlikely. Don crashed right after he got 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.960 through Portage Pass, but before he was within range of Johnstone. 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.320 This would have had to occur during a narrow window 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:47.200 of time, though, say five to fifteen minutes, because once 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:49.560 he got through the pass he would have been within 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:54.320 range of the radio relay pretty quickly. Verdict possible, but 0:05:54.640 --> 0:06:01.599 less likely. Don had a sudden emergency while he was 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:05.200 within range of Johnstone and then crashed. In this case, 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:07.680 even if he could radio in, he would have been 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:16.039 preoccupied with saving the plane. Verdict possible. On this note, 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:19.720 there's also a chance Don was within range of Johnstone 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:22.960 but too low to make contact. Maybe there was an 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:25.920 emergency and he wanted to call in, but he couldn't. 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:30.000 His radio was line of sight, so terrain like mountains 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:38.320 could have blocked a transmission. Verdict possible. Some people speculate 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:41.720 that Don did not cross through Portage Pass. They think 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:45.800 he took an alternate route without notifying the authorities. Maybe 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:49.640 he followed a rail line down to seward, crossed over water, 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:53.800 and then disappeared. But this doesn't take into account witness 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:58.880 reports of a plane crossing over Whittier that morning. Verdict possible, 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:05.640 but very unlike so to recap based on available evidence, 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:09.720 it's still most likely that the plane craft somewhere between 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:14.320 Portage Pass and Henshon Brook Island, probably into Prince William Sound. 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:24.520 Three was the Cessina tail Bob Martinson found around right 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:27.680 off Henshon Brook Island, part of the Beggage Bogg's plane. 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:33.960 Maybe the coloration, size and tail number all apparently match, 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:38.320 so does the location. Poor Duchess is only about ten 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:41.440 miles south of V three one seven, the route Don 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:46.560 John's planned to take on October six ninety two. That day, 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.800 if Don flew low under a cloud ceiling, he would 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:52.920 have had to circle around Hension Brook, not over it 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:57.239 by heading north or south. If he flew south trying 0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:01.200 to circle around the island, and if he had an emergency, 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.320 he would have likely turned east into port Us instead 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:07.800 of heading out over open ocean. Once in port Ches, 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.120 he likely would have tried to cross through a low 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:12.960 pass of about a thousand feet and then attempted to 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:17.840 land either somewhere on Hension Book or in Cordova. Four. 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:22.480 What happened to the tailpiece Bob found Bob is fuzzy 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:25.920 on whether he, his father and only Resa there fishing 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:28.960 partner left the tail in the water, if they brought 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:31.800 it back to Cordova, or if they sent it back 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.280 on a tender, a type of supply boat. Bob thinks 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:38.880 they sent it back to Cordova on a tender. Five. 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:42.160 If it made it back to Cordova to the Alaska 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:46.720 State troopers, what happened, then where is it? Honestly, I 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:49.960 have no idea. I tried to track down troopers who 0:08:50.000 --> 0:08:53.959 were stationed in Cordova around nineteen to ask them, because 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:56.640 even if they determined that it belonged to a different plane, 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.880 that's not the type of thing you forget. There should 0:08:59.880 --> 0:09:04.280 be documentation of which plane it belonged to. Unfortunately, the 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:08.840 only troopers I could find have died six What happened 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:16.120 to the plane on October sixteenth? Why did it crash again? 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:21.920 There are multiple possible explanations, including a mechanical failure, be 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:27.520 whether see pilot error or d a bomb or some 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:32.280 other black swan event. I don't buy option a catastrophic 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:36.360 mechanical failure. The plane had just undergone a hundred hour 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.240 inspection the day before it disappeared, and then that night 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:44.360 Dawn flew it safely from Fairbanks to Anchorage. I know 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.920 at this very moment some pilots are squirming in their seats, 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.720 so let me explain to the general public what these 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.959 pilots have explained to me. The odds of a small 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.800 plane suffering a mechanical failure actually go up after a 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:03.640 through inspection because everything gets jostled around, etcetera. But the 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:09.079 higher odds are still extremely low. So option B, whether 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:13.520 this is what most people believe brought down the plane, specifically, 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:17.600 ice turbulence seems less likely. It would have been most 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:21.040 severe in portage pass, but the plane apparently made it 0:10:21.080 --> 0:10:25.000 through the pass through the worst of it, So again ice. 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:29.480 To be clear, there's zero doubt that icing conditions were 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:33.760 present that day. The weather was undeniably bad. But it's 0:10:33.800 --> 0:10:37.280 important to explain a few things first. When you think 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:39.880 of a small plane icing up and crashing, what do 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:42.880 you picture? Do you see it freezing into an ice 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:47.120 cube and just falling out of the sky, Because if so, 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.600 that's not how it works. The real reason ice is 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:54.080 so dangerous, as Don himself pointed out in his article 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:57.640 Ice Without Fear, which ran the same month he disappeared, 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:01.000 is not the weight it adds. It's because ice can 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:05.200 interfere with airflow, making it hard, if not impossible, for 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:09.600 small planes to climb. So you risk losing altitude, stalling 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:15.920 and then eventually crashing. Second, why does nearly everyone believe 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:19.520 ice brought down the missing plane? There are two important 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:24.520 reasons here. No wreckage was ever found, so zero evidence 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:28.480 that everyone wants some explanation. And that brings me to 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:33.920 Don John's the pilot. He's an easy scapegoat. In Ice 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:37.680 Without Fear, which again was on news stands when the 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:43.480 plane disappeared, Don made several inflammatory comments, including quote, playing 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:46.400 with ice is like playing with the devil. Fun but 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:49.760 don't play unless you can cheat. But that's only a 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:54.040 single line. Read the whole article. Don was wicked, smart, 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:57.479 and a damn good pilot. He survived more than seventeen 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:02.160 thousand hours flying and often brutal Arctic conditions. Yes, he 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:05.880 was arrogant, but there's a difference between arrogance born of 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:09.400 inexperienced youth and arrogance born of actually being good at 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:13.520 what you do. Now, grizzled pilots like to say there 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:17.839 are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old bold pilots, 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.240 And there's some truth to that. If you take risks, 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:25.719 your odds of dying obviously go up to these old Timers. 0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:29.520 Don is a very polarizing figure. They see him as 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:34.760 either a genius or a fool. And this polarization is 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:38.920 very important because when you can bind bad weather and 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:42.360 Don's article, conditions were right for Don to take the 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.520 fall for the cocky pilot who iced up and crashed 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:49.720 narrative to dominate, even though since no wreckage was ever found, 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:55.760 that theory, too, is based entirely on speculation. Furthermore, while 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:58.880 evaluating the ice theory, let's take a closer look at 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.840 weather conditions that a by Alaska standards, they were actually 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:06.160 pretty mild. The surface temperature along much of the plane's 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.360 route was in the forties, well above freezing, and in 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:11.920 the air the freezing level was at about five to 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:16.640 six thousand feet. What does this tell us For argument's sake, 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:22.040 Let's say Don did encounter moderate to severe icing conditions. First, 0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:25.480 as an experienced pilot, he would have known quickly that 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:30.760 he was in trouble. Second, it's extremely unlikely, almost impossible, 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:33.400 that ice could have built up so quickly that it 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:37.120 caused the plane to suddenly plummet into the sea. If 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.360 Don was flying high enough and to accumulate a significant 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:42.600 amount of ice, that day he would have had to 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.319 have been he would have had time to descend into 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.880 warmer air. And even if he iced up while crossing 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.240 through Portage Pass, he still had seventy five miles ago 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.400 before reaching hnsin Brooke. He would have been over open 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:58.520 water most of the time. He had time to escape 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:04.800 into warmer air, and he had room. Now, let's look 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:07.920 at the plane itself, a twin engine Cessna three ten. 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.640 See the three ten is not intended to find icing 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:16.559 conditions for any extended period of time, no matter what. Regardless, 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.880 just because the three ten encounters icing conditions doesn't mean 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:24.480 it will automatically crash. So other than pilot experience, the 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:27.960 vital question is what kind of icing equipment did the 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:32.160 plane have. First, you have to delineate between anti ice 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:36.760 equipment and d ice equipment. Anti ice equipment helps prevent 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:41.280 ice build up, d ice equipment helps remove it. According 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:45.280 to the NTSB's final accident report, the missing plane had 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:49.360 only a single piece of icing equipment, a heated pet tube, 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.240 which is a device that prevents ice from interfering with 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:57.360 air speed measurements. Past that, the NTSB report states explicitly 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.960 that the plane had no other anti I equipment, and 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.880 it makes no mention of any d ice equipment either. 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.760 Since ice is most often cited as the reason the 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:13.080 plane crashed, this is extremely important. Now listen closely to 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.000 what I'm about to tell you, because to my knowledge, 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:20.400 nobody has ever reported it until now. There appeared to 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:25.600 be major errors in the NTSB report discrepancies and omissions. 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.400 Before I go on, let me credit Mike Travis, a 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:33.240 pilot based in Washington State who has extensive experience flying 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:37.040 in Alaska, as the first person to notice this. Mike 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.680 and I both obtained the missing planes airworthiness records from 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:43.840 the f a A. Mike also obtained copies of the 0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:48.240 plane's original records from Cessna. In these records, we found 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:52.520 something fascinating. It appears that the missing plane was outfitted 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:56.160 with three pieces of anti ice and d ice equipment 0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:00.080 that we're not mentioned in the NTSB accident report. This 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:04.480 is a huge deal. Specifically, Mike and I found documentation 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:08.200 that the plane had one pneumatic d ice boots on 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.920 both its wings and horizontal stabilizer part of its tail. 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.360 Pilots inflate d ice boots to crack ice off a 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:19.360 plane's airframe and allow wind to carry it away. Two 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:24.040 an alcohol based anti ice propeller system which pumps anti 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:29.360 ice fluid onto propeller blades, and three a d ice light. 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.240 According to Andrew Kalett, a Georgia based pilot who co 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:36.960 hosts the defense security podcast, d ice lights let you 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.640 light up the leading edge of wings at night to 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:43.240 see if you're picking up ice. So why did the 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:47.640 NTSB mentioned none of this? How did the NTSB missed 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:51.360 three pieces of anti ice and d ice equipment on 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.920 a plane presumed have been felled by ice. The most 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:59.440 generous explanation is gross negligence that d NTSB just missed 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:03.200 the equipment. It beyond that, it's possible that the icing 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:07.920 equipment was removed sometime before the plane disappeared, but if 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:12.600 it was removed, that should have been documented. Finally, it's 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:16.000 possible that the icing equipment was there but it didn't work. 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:20.120 It was inoperative, so the NTSB just didn't mention it. 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:23.679 But the NTSB did mention a different system on the 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.439 plane that was functional but inoperative, an oxygen system that 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:31.000 worked but had not been serviced with oxygen. So even 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:34.640 if the plane had an operative icing equipment, the NTSB 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:38.600 should have mentioned it, as it did with the oxygen system. 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:42.280 For clarification, I called Phil Hewith, the mechanic who worked 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:45.359 on the missing plane the day before it disappeared. Phil 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.800 remembers that at the very least, the plane did have 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:52.680 functioning d ice boots, meaning not only were they not removed, 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:58.680 but they worked to recap According to FAA records, CESSNA records, 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:03.160 and Phil Hewith, the missing plane apparently had three pieces 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:06.919 of icing equipment not included in the NTSB accident report. 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:11.080 Why did the NTSB exclude this equipment, I don't know, 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:15.239 but by not including it, the NTSB helped further the 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:18.720 iced up and crashed narrative, the narrative that most people 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:22.800 to this day still believe. Now. The fact that the 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.280 plane had this extra equipment does not mean it's impossible 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:28.880 that it iceed up and crashed. It means it's less 0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:33.120 likely the extra equipment should have bought Don John's, the pilot, 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:36.600 at least an additional five to ten minutes to escape 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:41.560 into better conditions and or warmer air. All together, when 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:47.040 you combine Don's experience, mild temperatures, and extra unreported icing 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:50.680 equipment not cited by the NTSB, the ice up and 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:54.520 crash theory seems much less likely today than at any 0:18:54.560 --> 0:19:24.680 point in the last fifty years. So I've examined two 0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:29.200 possible explanations for why the plane crashed, mechanical failure and weather. 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:34.040 What about the others options? See? Is pilot error? Now, 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:38.119 Dawn was very smart and very experienced, but that doesn't 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:41.080 rule out pilot error. It just means it's less likely. 0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:45.000 For argument's sake, let's say pilot error did play a 0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:48.760 role here. There are many possible scenarios, and we can't 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:52.560 examine them all but one, perhaps the likeliest, is that 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:56.200 Dawn flew too low and slammed into a mountain or glacier. 0:19:56.880 --> 0:20:00.600 But this doesn't make sense. Remember when US has heard 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:04.919 a plane, probably this plane pass over Whittier, and beyond 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:09.600 Whittier it's mostly open water until hension brooke. That leaves 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:13.160 us with option D, the black Swan event, a bomb 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:19.360 or something else unexpected and extreme. Seven. Was the plane bombed? 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:24.720 I don't know. Eight? Could the plane have been bombed? Yes, 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.920 how maybe with the bomb triggered by a barometric pressure 0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:33.240 or a timer or a radio receiver. The possibilities are endless. 0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:36.919 Where would you hide it? Probably in the tail compartment. 0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:40.959 Why would anyone bomb it? Well, that gets the motive 0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:46.360 that gets to Jerry Paisley and his claims. Nine do 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:51.000 you think Jerry Paisley lied? I think there's a strong 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.639 possibility that he did tell the truth, at least in part. 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:57.960 And I'm not alone in that opinion. The three members 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.320 of law enforcement and the NBC producer who interviewed him 0:21:01.440 --> 0:21:04.920 all agree with me. Look, if I thought everything Paisley 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:07.720 said was bullshit, I would tell you. I'm not here 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:09.879 to lie to you. I'm here to tell the truth 0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:12.760 to the best of my ability. I've tried to keep 0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:15.600 speculation to a minimum. I want you to make up 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:18.880 your own mind. But come on, you mean to tell 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:22.800 me that one year after congressman vanished, by pure coincidence, 0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:26.400 his widows stumbled into a mobster, married him. And by 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:29.480 the way, this guy murdered five or six people, bombed 0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:32.400 a judge's house, and had close ties to two prominent 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:37.440 mafia families. For argument's sake, okay, chalk it up to coincidence. 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:42.720 Twenty years after this coincidence, this guy, Jerry Paisley, tells 0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:46.679 law enforcement a shocking story. He claims that Peggy Begett 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.679 met with mob boss Joe Bonano in Tucson in the 0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:53.520 summer of nineteen seventy two, right before her husband, Congressman 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:58.320 Nick Beggett, disappeared. He claims that shortly thereafter, a Banano 0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:02.119 lieutenant named Joe I Trolla or Joey the I asked 0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:05.159 him to fly a suitcase to Anchorage. He claims he 0:22:05.240 --> 0:22:08.600 did fly a suitcase to Anchorage. He claims that two men, 0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:11.720 Danny Zivanich and Jean Fowler, picked him up at the 0:22:11.720 --> 0:22:14.720 Anchorage airport, and that later that night the three of 0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:17.760 them met up with Jean's brother Larry. He claims that 0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:21.520 after he, Peggy and Zivinich went into business in nineteen 0:22:21.560 --> 0:22:25.199 seventy four, Zivinas told him that Peggy owed him because 0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:29.440 he quote blew her old man out of the sky. Now, 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:33.840 what of Paisley's story? Can we prove? Paisley did marry 0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:38.480 Peggy Baggage. Paisley and Peggy did go into business with Zivinage. 0:22:39.200 --> 0:22:43.000 Paisley did have close ties to to mob families, the 0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:47.159 Bananas and the Lick of Olie's. Paisley did murder people 0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:51.520 and conduct bombings. The rest I'm not a hundred percent sure, 0:22:52.160 --> 0:22:56.720 but if Paisley's claims are true, if I'd speculate the 0:22:56.760 --> 0:23:01.320 following things. One, Jean and Larry four were bit players. 0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:03.960 Jeane was paid to pick up Paisley at the airport 0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.800 and not ask questions, and the three men just hung 0:23:06.800 --> 0:23:10.879 out that night with Larry. Two Joeyah Tarrola was also 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:14.879 a bit player. He ran an errand for his boss. Three. 0:23:15.080 --> 0:23:17.480 Paisley knew more than he led on, but he was 0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:22.080 still mostly a bit player. Four. As for Danny Zivinag, 0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:25.360 he's a cipher. I don't know much about him. He 0:23:25.400 --> 0:23:28.719 was in the military, moved to Alaska and was a bartender. 0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:32.080 Next thing you know, he owns fifty of Max Inc. 0:23:32.320 --> 0:23:36.720 The company he started with Peggy and Paisley. Five. The 0:23:36.760 --> 0:23:40.200 Mob would have gotten involved for one of two reasons. First, 0:23:40.320 --> 0:23:43.280 there's always a direct payment. Give us money, We'll give 0:23:43.320 --> 0:23:46.000 you a bomb. Second, and I think this is more 0:23:46.080 --> 0:23:49.600 likely if Peggy won nick seat and she did run 0:23:49.680 --> 0:23:52.680 for it, the mob would have had Alaska's only congress 0:23:52.720 --> 0:23:55.640 person in its back pocket. During a gold rush time, 0:23:55.960 --> 0:23:58.919 the oil boom, when there were moves and money to 0:23:59.000 --> 0:24:02.359 be made. You could ask well, why go through all 0:24:02.400 --> 0:24:06.480 that trouble? Why not bribe or blackmail Nick Baggage instead? 0:24:07.080 --> 0:24:10.400 And my answer would be that every single person I've interviewed, 0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:13.600 and I mean every person, said Nick was clean and 0:24:13.640 --> 0:24:16.399 a man of integrity. I don't think he could be 0:24:16.480 --> 0:24:21.080 bought off or blackmailed. Six If the plane was bombed, 0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:24.280 why do it with hail bogs on board? To that, 0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:27.480 I'd say, if someone bombed the plane, they would have 0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:30.040 had the factor in the likelihood that wreckage would be 0:24:30.119 --> 0:24:33.560 found and a bomb identified as the cause of the crash. 0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:37.000 And then who would everyone pinpoint as the target, the 0:24:37.119 --> 0:24:41.240 nerdy first term congressman from Alaska or the House Majority 0:24:41.320 --> 0:24:45.320 leader who served on the Warrant Commission seven? Why would 0:24:45.359 --> 0:24:49.800 Peggy get involved? Though her son Tom denies it, multiple 0:24:49.840 --> 0:24:52.520 people told me that Peggy's marriage to Nick was strained, 0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:56.600 that they were separated and considering a divorce. Peggy met 0:24:56.680 --> 0:24:59.400 Nick in Minnesota when Nick was a young twenties something 0:24:59.520 --> 0:25:03.320 high school teacher, her high school teacher. They got married, 0:25:03.600 --> 0:25:06.560 moved to Alaska, had six kids, and then Nick was 0:25:06.640 --> 0:25:10.240 gone most of the time. Working documents show that Peggy 0:25:10.280 --> 0:25:15.440 got about a million dollars in today's dollars after Nick disappeared. Eight. 0:25:15.960 --> 0:25:20.000 Even if Paisley told the truth, it's possible Peggy did 0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:23.040 not know what she was getting herself into. She could 0:25:23.080 --> 0:25:27.920 have been manipulated and used. Nine. Paisley might have told 0:25:27.960 --> 0:25:31.240 the truth in part. It might not be so simple 0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:34.960 as he lied or he told the truth. Maybe he 0:25:35.080 --> 0:25:39.679 told part of the truth. And this leads me to 0:25:39.760 --> 0:25:43.480 an interesting theory. When I sat down with Tom Davis, 0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:46.800 the Arizona investigator who observed Paisley's wedding to Peggy in 0:25:46.840 --> 0:25:51.880 nineteen seventy four and interviewed Paisley in he pointed out 0:25:51.960 --> 0:25:56.080 something interesting in the red dot photos, the Peggy Paisley 0:25:56.080 --> 0:25:59.920 wedding photos. Every person connected to organized crime is tie 0:26:00.320 --> 0:26:04.600 primarily to the lick of OLiS, not the bananas. Heck, 0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:08.040 even Pete Lackavoli Jr. Himself is there, but none of 0:26:08.040 --> 0:26:12.679 the bananas. In addition, the Conti Qui, where Paisley claimed 0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:15.880 Peggy met with Joe Bonano, was owned, at least in part, 0:26:16.320 --> 0:26:18.919 not by the bananas but by the lick of OLiS. 0:26:19.720 --> 0:26:24.200 Also in nineteen seventy four, Joeya Tarola or Joey the I, 0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:28.640 the man who allegedly gave Paisley the suitcase filled with explosives, 0:26:29.119 --> 0:26:32.320 was secretly photographed at a Tucson golf tournament with two 0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:38.360 of Paisley's friends, Sal Spinelli and Pete Likavoli Jr. Finally, 0:26:38.720 --> 0:26:43.240 in FBI records, I found something very interesting. An FBI 0:26:43.359 --> 0:26:47.800 memo dated October six, nineteen seventy two, only ten days 0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:51.840 before the congressman disappeared, states that Jerry Paisley was spotted 0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:55.520 in September nineteen seventy two, around the same time he 0:26:55.600 --> 0:26:59.879 claimed to have transported explosives to Anchorage with Pete Likavoli Sr. 0:27:00.240 --> 0:27:03.480 The Big Boss. Here's part of the memo with the 0:27:03.480 --> 0:27:08.679 word blank substituted in for redacted sections. Quote source advised 0:27:08.680 --> 0:27:12.520 that on nine, nineteen seventy two, Jerry Max Paisley and 0:27:12.560 --> 0:27:15.879 Pete Lookavoli Senior had been in the Hilton Inn bar together. 0:27:16.600 --> 0:27:19.200 During the time they were in the bar, they blank. 0:27:19.760 --> 0:27:22.640 Source stated that she had heard that Paisley was presently 0:27:22.680 --> 0:27:27.359 residing at the Hilton Inn motel. End quote. And there's 0:27:27.359 --> 0:27:32.040 a second FBI memo quote On September twenty one, nineteen 0:27:32.119 --> 0:27:36.520