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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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Speaker 2: are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: Karen, it's day ten the war with Iran. Once again,

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Speaker 3: there is little sign of let up on either side.

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Speaker 3: The US and Israel continue to launch heavy air strikes

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Speaker 3: on Tehran, while Iran is attacking Israel and Arab Golf

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Speaker 3: states regularly with drones and missiles. Iran says it can

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Speaker 3: keep up this level of fighting for at least six months,

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Speaker 3: but Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says at some point Iran

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Speaker 3: will surrender.

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Speaker 4: We're not flying a mission accomplished banner like George W.

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Speaker 4: Bush on an aircraft carrier. We're not doing that, and

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Speaker 4: we haven't done that. But we can be clear with

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Speaker 4: the American people that this is not a fair fight,

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Speaker 4: and that's on purpose. Our capabilities are overwhelming compared to

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Speaker 4: what Iran's are.

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Speaker 3: In an interview on CBS's sixty Minutes heard Sundays on

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said President Trump will

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Speaker 3: set the terms of Iran surrender, but former US Ambassador

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Speaker 3: to Israel Tom Knyde says, it's important to take a

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Speaker 3: step back.

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Speaker 5: We ys understand what the objections of this is. How

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Speaker 5: do we determine what success is that less your success

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Speaker 5: is nestly called regime change, but one will have to

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Speaker 5: debate that. And I do believe Congress has a role here, Guyes,

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Speaker 5: I think it's important for us to understand that.

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Speaker 3: Former US Ambassador to Israel, Tom Nys was a guest

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Speaker 3: on our new show Bloomberg this weekend. In the meantime,

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Speaker 3: the US has ordered non essential diplomats in Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 3: to leave. That's after a US service member wounded in

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Speaker 3: an attack over the weekend died overnight, bringing the US

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Speaker 3: death told a seven. Iran says more than thirteen hundred

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Speaker 3: people have died in US and Israeli strikes so far.

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Speaker 3: Sources tell Bloomberg News that President Trump is considering a

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Speaker 3: special Forces ground operation to see Iran's enriched uranium. That's

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Speaker 3: on growing concerns it may have been moved. President Trump

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Speaker 3: says that's something he could do later on, but he's

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Speaker 3: not considering it right now.

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Speaker 2: Well. Nathan Iran is signaling no let up to the

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Speaker 2: war after naming the hardline son of the assassinated Ayatola

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Speaker 2: Ali Kameni as its new supreme leader. Fifty six year

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Speaker 2: old mosh Shaba Comenie has deep ties to the Islamic

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Speaker 2: Revolutionary Guard. Bloomberg Senior editor Wendy Benjaminson says the decision

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Speaker 2: was not a surprise.

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Speaker 6: This was the man that the US really expected would

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Speaker 6: take over for his father. It's the first generational succession

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Speaker 6: since the nineteen seventy nine revolution, and he seems to

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Speaker 6: be the kind of guy who will continue in his

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Speaker 6: father's footsteps in every way.

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Speaker 2: In Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson, President Trump told Fox News he

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Speaker 2: was unhappy with Mushtambas Comenie's appointment.

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Speaker 3: Oh Karen Oil has smashed through one hundred dollars a

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Speaker 3: barrel this morning as the war rages on. Checking nimex

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Speaker 3: crud right now, it's up nearly fourteen percent at one

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Speaker 3: hundred three dollars thirty six cents per barrel. Brent is

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Speaker 3: up fifteen percent at one hundred and six dollars sixty

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Speaker 3: two cents. The price was even higher earlier, but talks

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Speaker 3: on a coordinated release of reserves took some heat out

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Speaker 3: of the market. Steven Stepchinsky leads Bloomberg's team covering energy

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Speaker 3: in Asia.

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Speaker 7: I think some of the worrying things that happened over

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Speaker 7: the weekend is the retaliatory strikes from Iran continued. It

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Speaker 7: did not look like there was any easing of tension.

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Speaker 7: In fact, it looked like it was getting worse. The

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Speaker 7: US wasn't showing like it's going to back down, especially

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Speaker 7: rhetoric coming out of the White House and from Trump himself.

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Speaker 7: And then on top of that, you had some major

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Speaker 7: producers you had quit, and you also had Adnock looking

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Speaker 7: to adjust or lower their oil production because their inventories

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Speaker 7: are getting high as they can't export the fuel.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Steven Stepchinsky says the Group of seven Finance ministers

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Speaker 3: will discuss a possible joint release of oil from their

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Speaker 3: reserves today. President Trump says one hundred dollars oil is

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Speaker 3: a quote small price to pay for world safety and peace.

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Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, oil is not the only thing on the

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Speaker 2: move this morning. We're seeing a big sell off and

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Speaker 2: stocks around the world, and Bloomberg John Tucker joins us

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Speaker 2: with the very latest John, good morning.

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Speaker 8: And carry US stock futures down over one percent. Japan's

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Speaker 8: niek plunged five percent the morning, sending that market into correction.

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Speaker 8: Global bonds they continue to sell off, so that's pushing

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Speaker 8: yields even higher. About six trillion dollars of market value

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Speaker 8: has now been a raised from global stock since the

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Speaker 8: war in Iran began. Investors are pricing in a deeper

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Speaker 8: and longer lasting supply shock. This is one that could

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Speaker 8: squeeze growth while reigniting inflation well we know as stagflation.

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Speaker 8: The dollar has emerged as the haven acid of choice,

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Speaker 8: with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up almost two percent

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Speaker 8: since the war began. Now that adds to cost pressure

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Speaker 8: since oil is priced in dollars, and hell and jewel

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Speaker 8: of black rocks is that were introduced more unwelcome obstacles

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Speaker 8: for investors.

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Speaker 9: Uncertainty about the Fed path, which we didn't have just

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Speaker 9: a few.

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Speaker 8: Weeks ago, well, expectations for Federal Reserve. The interest rate

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Speaker 8: cuts have already been paired back, and veteran strategist ed

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Speaker 8: Yard Denny has raised the probability of a market meltdown.

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Speaker 8: As he puts it, the US economy and stock market

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Speaker 8: are stuck between Iran and a hard place. You know

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Speaker 8: you York, come John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: All right, John, thank you. There's another source of tension

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Speaker 3: in New York City. Authorities are investigating potential terrorism linked

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Speaker 3: to two suspects in custody of what Police Commissioner Jessica

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Speaker 3: Tish says was an improvised explosive device thrown near Mayor

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Speaker 3: Zorn Mumdani's residence. Tish says the device was thrown by

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Speaker 3: a counter protester during an anti Islam demonstration.

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Speaker 10: Witnesses reported seeing flames and smoke as its traveled through

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Speaker 10: the air before it struck a barrier and extinguished itself

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Speaker 10: a few feet from police officers.

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Speaker 3: New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tish says the confrontation

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Speaker 3: unfolded outside Mayor Mumdanni's home during a protest organized by

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Speaker 3: far right activist Jake Lang to quote stop the Islamic

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Speaker 3: takeover of New York City.

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Speaker 2: Well in Europe, Nathan Chancellor Frederick Mertz suffered a setback

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Speaker 2: after his Conservatives lost a crucial state election to the Greens.

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Speaker 2: The loss is ominous for Mertz, whose authority will be

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Speaker 2: tested in four more regional elections this year.

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Speaker 3: Turning back to Mark It's now Karen Bloomberg News has

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Speaker 3: learned Live Nations close to settling a federal antitrust lawsuit

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Speaker 3: accusing the company of illegally monopolizing the live music industry.

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Speaker 3: The settlement discussions have intensified since a trial kicked off

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Speaker 3: last week. Under the proposed planned Live Nation's ticketmaster subsidiary

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Speaker 3: would eliminate some exclusivity in ticketing contracts with concert venues,

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Speaker 3: as well as make some concessions around the use of

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Speaker 3: its amphitheaters.

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Speaker 2: Nathan about a confidence for Nvidia. Billionaire Leo Quoguan doubled

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Speaker 2: his stake in the chip giant to two million shares.

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Speaker 2: While small relative to his thirteen point four billion dollar

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Speaker 2: fortune as measured by the Bloomberg Billionaire's Index, the acquisition

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Speaker 2: is a notable move by Quoguan, whose net worth for

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Speaker 2: years largely has been tied up in just one stock Tesla.

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Speaker 3: And this program note, Karen, markets may close on Fridays,

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Speaker 3: but the world doesn't, and that's why we are bringing

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Speaker 3: you a new live radio and TV show Bloomberg this weekend.

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Speaker 3: It looks beyond the daily headlines to the bigger themes

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Speaker 3: driving politics, business, and Culture joined David Gera, Christina Raffini,

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Speaker 3: and Lisa Matteo for smart conversations and in depth interviews

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Speaker 3: that help make sense of the week that's been and

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Speaker 3: what comes next. Get Bloomberg This Weekend Live Saturdays and

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Speaker 3: Sundays from seven am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, Television, and

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Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: Time Now for look at some of their stories making

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Speaker 2: news in New York and around the world, and for

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Speaker 2: that were joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, Good Morning.

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Speaker 11: Good Morning Karen. The partial government shutdown at the Department

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Speaker 11: of Homeland Security is being felt by air travelers spending

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Speaker 11: hours in security lines at airports like Louis Armstrong International

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Speaker 11: Airport in New Orleans and Hobby Airport in Houston. This

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Speaker 11: woman waited for hours and missed flights out of Houston.

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Speaker 11: She says, nerves are fried.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of frustration.

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Speaker 8: You love.

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Speaker 10: People are variant set kind of pat and.

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Speaker 2: Frit Here Hobby where they're first parting on to clean wind.

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Speaker 11: Officials in the early installed flyers to show up three

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Speaker 11: hours ahead of their flight because of a shortage of

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Speaker 11: TSA agents. The New York Police Department is mourning the

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Speaker 11: loss of one of their officers. While helping the US

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Speaker 11: mission in Iran, Officer sore Fly Davius suffered a fatal

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Speaker 11: medical emergency and died while deployed to Kuwait. Davius, who

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Speaker 11: was a major in the Army National Guard, was a

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Speaker 11: twelve year veteran of the NYPD. The California Public Health

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Speaker 11: Department is warning the bird flew virus is a serious

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Speaker 11: problem sickening marine mammals too. Doctor John Schwarzburg, clinical Professor

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Speaker 11: emeritus at UC Berkeley School of Public Health, alerts Bay

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Speaker 11: Area residents bringing pets to the beach to beware.

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Speaker 12: You should be careful when you're approaching other mammals, particularly

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Speaker 12: if you're going to be, for example, on the beach

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Speaker 12: and you see a seal, particularly if the seal looks sick,

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Speaker 12: but a well animal could certainly be infected and spread

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Speaker 12: the virus versus as well.

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Speaker 11: The Marine Mammal Center in Marin County reminds people and

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Speaker 11: their pets that they should not approach live or dead animals.

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Speaker 11: In Los Angeles, a person fired shots into the home

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Speaker 11: of singer Rihanna on Sunday afternoon while she was at home. Fortunately,

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Speaker 11: no one was hurt. A female suspect is in custody.

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Speaker 11: Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 11: want it with Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr and this

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Speaker 11: is Bloomberg Karen.

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Speaker 2: Well, thanks Michael all the time. Now for our Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Sports updating. For that, we bring in John stash Hour.

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Speaker 11: Thanks Darren.

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Speaker 13: NFL free agents ken begin sunning officially on Wednesday, but

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Speaker 13: we'll start hearing about some of those signings today. Among

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Speaker 13: the free agents, quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Kirk Cousins,

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Speaker 13: receivers like Mike Evans and tybreek Hill, and a running

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Speaker 13: back in Kenneth Walker, who was the Super Bowl MVP.

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Speaker 13: The golf in Florida was won by actually Battilla in

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Speaker 13: a playoff with Daniel Berger. The Celtics have gotten Jason

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Speaker 13: Tatum back from that leg injuries. Now played in two

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Speaker 13: games and the Celtics of one on both It was

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Speaker 13: one O nine ninety eight in Cleveland to Bloomberg spor's update.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM

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Speaker 1: and around the world. On Bloomberg dot Com and the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Album. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. On day ten of the war,

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Speaker 3: where Iran President Trump has said there will be no

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Speaker 3: deal with Tehran until unconditional surrender. Asked what that looks like,

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Speaker 3: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had this to say on CBS's

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Speaker 3: Sixty Minutes.

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Speaker 4: This is not a remaking of the Iranian society from

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Speaker 4: an American perspective.

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Speaker 5: We tried that.

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Speaker 4: The American people have rejected that. President Trump called those

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Speaker 4: wars dumb, and we're not fighting that way.

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Speaker 3: Defense Secretary Pete Heggseth on sixty Minutes, heard Sundays on

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio. This morning, we're joined by Bloomberg News Deputy

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Speaker 3: Washington Bureau Chief Laura Davison, and with us from Dubai

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Speaker 3: this morning, Bloomberg Middle East Correspondent Jumana Bersecci, the anchor

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Speaker 3: of Bloomberg Horizons. Good morning to both of you. Juman,

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Speaker 3: I'll start with you just to give us the latest

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Speaker 3: on what has been happening in the Middle East.

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Speaker 14: Good morning, Yes, well, the main news of the weekend

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Speaker 14: was the appointment of the new Supreme Leader, essentially the

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Speaker 14: son of the former Supreme Leader, Mushta Bakabenet, and many

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Speaker 14: are taking that as an act of defiance. He's essentially

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Speaker 14: a continuity candidate. The IRGC of very very close to

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Speaker 14: Mushta Bahmenet. They've already pledged full obedience to him in

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Speaker 14: a statement. And remember this is an individual who was

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Speaker 14: placed under US sanctions in twenty nineteen. He's been accused

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Speaker 14: of influencing past elections and very brutal security crackdowns in

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Speaker 14: the past. And so the fact that he was appointed

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Speaker 14: and elevated to this position tells you that Iran continued

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Speaker 14: to be defiant and that the security system, the military

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Speaker 14: system are going to continue to play a very dominant

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Speaker 14: role in terms of this decision making around all of

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Speaker 14: the nuclear and military decisions that be making around the war.

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Speaker 14: And you know, President Trump has also in the run

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Speaker 14: up to this deemed the selection of Mushtebahmane to be

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Speaker 14: an unacceptable choice and has reiterated over the weekend that

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Speaker 14: they're going to be pushing for a complete surrender. The

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Speaker 14: fact that the Iranians have actually appointed the son of

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Speaker 14: Ali Kramene suggests that they are not going to yield

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Speaker 14: at least eminently to some of the demands that the

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Speaker 14: US have been asking for.

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Speaker 3: Let's bring you into this, Laura, because, as Jumana mentions,

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Speaker 3: President Trump has said he's not happy with the appointment.

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Speaker 3: He's said that he wanted a personal role in choosing

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Speaker 3: Iran's next leader. What kind of a response can we

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Speaker 3: expect from the US now?

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Speaker 9: The US is looking at a bunch of different options.

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Speaker 9: You know, Trump went into the weekend saying that he

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Speaker 9: would be striking different sites in Iran that had not

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Speaker 9: previously been targeted. We've really seen a broadening and escalating

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Speaker 9: of the war over the weekend as there's been additional strikes.

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Speaker 9: The US is also reportedly considering looking at some sort

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Speaker 9: of special operations ground strike. This would go against what

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Speaker 9: Trump and other top officials have said in recent days

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Speaker 9: that they're not in sending any ground troops, no ground operation.

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Speaker 9: This one would specifically focus on looking at securing the

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Speaker 9: enriched uranium supplies and somehow taking that away from the Iranians. This,

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Speaker 9: of course would be you know, a really big escalation

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Speaker 9: both in terms of exactly you know, the US's role here,

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Speaker 9: but also in terms of risk that this is a

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Speaker 9: much risk heer expedition within what's been happening so far,

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Speaker 9: you know, And this is really as we've just seen,

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Speaker 9: safety concerns spread across the region. The US embassy in Riad,

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Speaker 9: Saudi Arabia, they have asked all diplomats who are not

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Speaker 9: emergency personnel to leave along with their family members.

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Speaker 5: This is the first of such of those orders.

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Speaker 9: Not to mention all of the economic spillover effects we've

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Speaker 9: seen with oil smashing through that one hundred dollars a

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Speaker 9: barrel marker, and just at least so far today, both

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Speaker 9: in Europe and Asia, markets really not responding well, which

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Speaker 9: creates a political for Trump at home.

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Speaker 3: Well, what do we know, Jumana about the situation on

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Speaker 3: the ground in Tehran right now, where the possibility is

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Speaker 3: of the uranium being located and what kind of damage

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Speaker 3: Tehran has been under at this point.

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Speaker 14: Well, you know, let me just go back to your

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Speaker 14: first question. I think, you know, in many respects, to

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Speaker 14: go back to what I was saying about Mushabahamed, he

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Speaker 14: does represent continuity of the of the regime and the

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Speaker 14: very strong presence of the Revolutionary Guard. Course, so from

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Speaker 14: that perspective, he represents everything that all of those demonstrators

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Speaker 14: were protesting against earlier this year. However, there's little sign

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Speaker 14: of the system collapsing from within, and there has not

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Speaker 14: been any reporting or recent reporting of demonstrators taking to

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Speaker 14: the streets. If anything, that has been reporting of the

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Speaker 14: Iranian regime preparing the paramilitary force, the Pasige to get

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Speaker 14: ready in case people start taking to the streets again. Now,

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Speaker 14: as for the location of the enriched stockpile, you know,

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Speaker 14: this has been a question. Is that there's been toying

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Speaker 14: I think the minds of experts ever since the Twelve

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Speaker 14: Day War from last June. But satellite imagery even in

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Speaker 14: the run up to this war, the most recent war,

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Speaker 14: suggested a bit of activity around the Isfahan site, and

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Speaker 14: the latest reporting that Laura was just signing there. You

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Speaker 14: know that US officials are considering at sending a specialized

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Speaker 14: force over there to help somehow retrieve that enriched stockpile

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Speaker 14: would take place around the Isfahan site because of increased

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Speaker 14: detected activity on satellite imagery that we saw on the

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Speaker 14: run up to the war. So of course it is

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Speaker 14: very risky and ultimately it boils down to two choices.

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Speaker 14: You know, if they want to take on that rest

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Speaker 14: and put troops on the ground to go and try

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Speaker 14: to retrieve the stock. Well, they've got two things that

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Speaker 14: they can do with this. They can try to extract

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Speaker 14: it from the country, which is similar to what happens

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Speaker 14: in the run up to the JCPOA, or they can

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Speaker 14: try to dilute. But at a time of extreme war

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Speaker 14: and targeted military operations with Iran on the offensive again,

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Speaker 14: it raises a lot of question marks about sort of

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Speaker 14: what the security situation would be if the US were

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Speaker 14: to commit to sending troops or extra personnel to Iran

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Speaker 14: to try to retrieve this uranium.

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Speaker 3: We're speaking with Bloomberg Middle East correspondent Jumana Borsecci in

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Speaker 3: Dubai along with the Bloomberg News Deputy Washington Bureau chief

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Speaker 3: Laura Davison, and just picking up on what Jumana was

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Speaker 3: saying in terms of the security situation in the Middle

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Speaker 3: East right now. Of course, we've seen Iran respond to

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Speaker 3: US and Israeli attacks with retaliatory strikes across the Middle East,

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Speaker 3: and now the news overnight that the US embassy in

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Speaker 3: Riod is being ordered in all of Saudi Arabia is

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Speaker 3: being ordered to get out of the country in terms

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Speaker 3: of American citizens there. What is the potential now of

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Speaker 3: a wider war? What is the signal that the US

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Speaker 3: is sending by essentially evacuating Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 9: This is a signal that the US expects that there

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Speaker 9: will be more strikes, bigger strikes, broader strikes. It was

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Speaker 9: the same, uh, you know, a similar but more targeted

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Speaker 9: signal we saw the State Department send before the war began,

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Speaker 9: you know, just nine days ago, asking uh, diplomats and

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Speaker 9: non essential people and giving them the option to leave

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Speaker 9: some of the embassies in the region. You know, these

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Speaker 9: orders are essentially a precursor for an expectation that that

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Speaker 9: things will get more dangerous, not less. And this is

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Speaker 9: kind of the same sort of uh, you know, a

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Speaker 9: sentiment that we've really seen ripple across the globe today

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Speaker 9: of you know, both from the on the market side

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Speaker 9: as well as from the diplomatic and geopolitical side, realizing

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Speaker 9: that this is likely not going to be a short

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Speaker 9: term conflict and that this is something that will last weeks,

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Speaker 9: if not months, but there's no really clear end in sight,

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Speaker 9: you know, with both sides, both Iran and the US,

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Speaker 9: saying that they you know, want the other side to surrender.

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Speaker 9: They're not willing to negotiate, and there's no clear out yet,

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Speaker 9: particularly because the US has not articulated what it sees

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Speaker 9: as success here. Trump has talked about regime Shane, She's

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Speaker 9: talked about aaran being disarmed, but there's been no clear

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Speaker 9: sense here about what the US is actually seeking and.

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Speaker 3: The response from the Middle East, as you know, Jumana

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Speaker 3: has been curtailment of oil production from several countries, including

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Speaker 3: Kuwait and cutter with the liquefied natural gas. This news

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Speaker 3: that the G seven might be considering a joint release

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Speaker 3: from their reserves has taken some pressure off the market

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Speaker 3: this morning. But what are you looking at in terms

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Speaker 3: of market impact right now?

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Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean the oil price moves this morning have

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Speaker 14: been nothing short of extraordinary. When I was on air

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Speaker 14: a couple of hours ago, we got very close to

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Speaker 14: one twenty dollars a barrel where Brent was trading at

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Speaker 14: around the same time, these reports came out suggesting that

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Speaker 14: the G seven finance minuts we're having an emergency meeting

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Speaker 14: to discuss the release of strategic petroleum reserves those sprs,

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Speaker 14: and on the back of that you saw some of

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Speaker 14: the gains get erased. That we're still up anything from

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Speaker 14: ten to fifteen percent today, and so this really does

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Speaker 14: speak to tightening physical supply. And you know, speaking too

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Speaker 14: many experts in the industry, the analysts around, the main

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Speaker 14: problem here is not necessarily the fact that these sites

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Speaker 14: have sustained a lot of damage, because they haven't. They

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Speaker 14: can still produce if they want to produce. The issue

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Speaker 14: is getting the oil and the gas and the other

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Speaker 14: products derived from gas out there and through the Strait

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Speaker 14: of Hormos, and so that is the major concern here,

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Speaker 14: and effectively what it means is as long as the

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Speaker 14: Strait of Hormos remains effectively closed for the safe passage

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Speaker 14: of vessels, you're going to continue to be in a

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Speaker 14: situation where many of these key OPEC producers are getting

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Speaker 14: increasingly concerned about their storage getting filled up, and they

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Speaker 14: have many of them announced that they are either cutting production,

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Speaker 14: slowing down production, or announcing force measures with some of

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Speaker 14: their key customers. This morning, Bahrein also joined the list

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Speaker 14: of some of the refiners in the region that have

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Speaker 14: announced the force measure with their customers. So this squeeze

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Speaker 14: the physical squeeze on the market doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 14: letting up, even though the announcement and the potential release

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Speaker 14: of SBR from an oil perspective could help ease some

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Speaker 14: of the upward price upward movement at price.

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Speaker 3: Thanks to both of you for this. Bloomberg's Jumana bursseci

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Speaker 3: with us this morning from Dubai along with Bloomberg Deputy

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Speaker 3: Washington Bureau Chief Laura Davison Karen Nathan.

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Speaker 2: And stocks are tumbling as the war in the Middle

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Speaker 2: East fuels turmoil and energy markets sending oil above one

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Speaker 2: hundred dollars a barrow for the first time since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two. Bond losses are accelerating while the dollar hits

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Speaker 2: its highest level since January. SNP futures they're down nine

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Speaker 2: ten seven percent, down sixty two points Down Future is

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Speaker 2: down one point one percent or five hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: four points, and NASDAK future is down one percent or

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty five points. We're joined now by

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Speaker 2: Efan Devitt, Senior investment advisor at Monetti Group and Efan,

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Speaker 2: good morning, thanks for being here. You say the oil

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Speaker 2: price shock is this story of the week, But is

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Speaker 2: this a short term story. What if this drags on.

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Speaker 15: Would very well be a short term story. We don't

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Speaker 15: know yet. That is exactly the uncertainty. I'd say, if

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Speaker 15: we look to predictions, say that's built into inflation expectations,

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Speaker 15: they may be stale now, but nobody foresaw this shock.

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Speaker 15: As you mentioned the spike and oil and the rest

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Speaker 15: of the picture for inflation was looking quite subdued up

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Speaker 15: to now. We had based our interest rate expectations on that,

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Speaker 15: and the consumer was feeling relatively complacent based on that.

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Speaker 15: This of course is a shock, and we know it's

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Speaker 15: going to just start to have collateral damage throughout different

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Speaker 15: sectors as importers are affected. And the question is whether

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Speaker 15: this will come to the weak's resolution that had been

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Speaker 15: the narrative, and whether this gets dragged on. It's very

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Speaker 15: much a fluid situation, so I think a vesters are

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Speaker 15: watching just like everybody else.

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Speaker 2: Well, a fluid situation. Indeed, you also talk a bit

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Speaker 2: about shock absorbers and if they'll be effective, So where

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Speaker 2: should be Where should we be watching to see if

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Speaker 2: that's the case?

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Speaker 15: Great, great question, and I'd say there's a retail investor

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Speaker 15: and an institutional investor in this you spoke about stocks tumbling.

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Speaker 15: I doubt that the retail investor is already participating in

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Speaker 15: that they do not have the access to the early

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Speaker 15: access to be able to make decisions on the fly.

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Speaker 15: And most retail investors have been coached by their advisors

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Speaker 15: to stay the course, be more long term, and not

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Speaker 15: try to practically maneuver here. But where are the shock

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Speaker 15: absorbers in markets? A diversified portfolio should have exposure to that.

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Speaker 15: I would say gold is a traditional shock absorber when

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Speaker 15: there is this kind of geopolitical shock. We know that

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Speaker 15: gold itself has been a bit distorted by the high

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Speaker 15: degree of retail selling, so we have to almost put

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Speaker 15: that on the side for the moment. Cash is a

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Speaker 15: typical shock absorber, but no investor wants to be in

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Speaker 15: cash for too long today because they're afraid of missing out.

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Speaker 15: Oil itself and energy will be a shock absorber. We

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Speaker 15: can see that we should have had exposure to energy stocks.

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Speaker 15: We know that energy is an short supply. And then

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Speaker 15: the AI and tech story, which has been the big

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00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 15: long term shock absorber that has sustained markets for years,

439
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 15: that's got its own cracks today, so that really has

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00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 15: to be on and so so it's not clear where

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00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 15: the traditional shock absorbers are.

442
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 2: But if there is cash out there, will people eventually

443
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 2: see this as a buying opportunity. Should we expect a bouncer?

444
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: Is there still some reticence? Says we can't really predict

445
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 2: what's going to happen.

446
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 15: It's a great question, and the million dollar question, indeed,

447
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 15: is whether the cash will stay on the sidelines, particularly

448
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 15: if inflation starts to erode it it doesn't look particularly safe,

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00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 15: or whether there will be that knee jerk reaction to

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00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 15: wish to buy the dip, which is something that we've

451
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 15: seen quite a bit in recent downturns, a very swift

452
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 15: turnaround and desire to buy the dip. We saw that

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00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 15: in the software as a service the SaaS apocalypse. Already,

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00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 15: we have many commentations in a sort of a feeding

455
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 15: frenzy over where the SaaS stocks that are being over

456
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 15: sold are. My suggestion is that because of this strong

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00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 15: need to have growth in a portfolio, there is a

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00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 15: strong need not to be out of equities for too long,

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00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 15: and that's where the equities on the sidelines are.

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