1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 2: The US presidential election is one day away and on Tuesday, 3 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: as tens of millions of Americans head to the polls, 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 2: there's a general sense of unease around the world as 5 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 2: global leaders brace themselves for the uncertainty of what comes next. 6 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: There was always a sort of a sense, at least 7 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: in the West, that as long as the US got 8 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: it right, the world order would be okay. And I 9 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: think what the likes of the UK and France and 10 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: Italy and Germany have seen is that the process the 11 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: elections have become increasingly unhinged. 12 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 2: Flavia Kraus Jackson is an executive editor at Bloomberg who 13 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: oversees our coverage of economics and politics in Europe, Africa, 14 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,639 Speaker 2: the Middle East, and Latin America, and in the run 15 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 2: up to election day in the US, she gave an 16 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: assignment to some of Bloomberg's twenty seven hundred reporters and 17 00:00:57,960 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: analysts based all over the world. 18 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: We really canvassed all the capitals from Brasilia via Dubai, 19 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: Beijing by way of Berlin, etc. And we didn't want 20 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: b role. We wanted them to speak to some of 21 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:15,199 Speaker 1: the smartest people in government speak openly or on background 22 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: about how they were wargaming the scenarios. 23 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 2: The scenarios being either a Kamala Harris presidency or another 24 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 2: Donald Trump term. I'm David Gura, and this is the 25 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 2: big take from Bloomberg News Today on the show the 26 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 2: global stakes of the US election and how world leaders 27 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 2: are bracing and preparing for the impact it'll have beyond 28 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: America's borders. The next US president will come into office 29 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: at a time when there are major conflicts taking place 30 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 2: in several parts of the world. The war in Ukraine 31 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 2: is well into its third year, there's concerned about a 32 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: wider war in the Middle East, and tensions high between 33 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 2: China and Taiwan. I began by asking Bloomberg's Flavia Kraus 34 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 2: Jackson how the course of the Israel Hamas war could 35 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 2: change depending on who wins the election, Kamala Harris or 36 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. She started with the vice president. 37 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has something going for her, which is essentially 38 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: the kind of credibility that comes also with who she's 39 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: married to. She can speak to the Jewish community with 40 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,519 Speaker 1: a degree of authority, and she also brings a fresh perspective. 41 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: She in her words, still believes in the two state solution, 42 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: something that Natanyahu has essentially taken off the table. So 43 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: the big challenge for her is how she translates that 44 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 1: rhetoric into practice, because what we have actually seen to 45 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 1: a degree, or at least how the Middle East perceives it, 46 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: is that the US is having a bit of an 47 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 1: emperor without close moment right they can't quite understand why 48 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: the US is the biggest supplier to Israel and why 49 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: it's incapable or unwilling to use this leverage. Now when 50 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 1: it comes to Donald Trump, it's an entirely different scenario. 51 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: He often likes to say that when he was president, 52 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,799 Speaker 1: there were no wars, and that just like he would 53 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, he would fix it overnight, Similarly he would 54 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 1: do the same in the Middle East. And there has 55 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: been some reporting out there that he is essentially told 56 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: natanyahuould know on certain terms that he wants this conflict 57 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: to end in January before he's sworn in, if indeed 58 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: he is elected. So I think there there is a 59 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: sense that the approach is much more transactional. Of course, 60 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: he is seen to enjoy very good relations with the 61 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: Gulf countries, specifically with MBS in Saudi Arabia. They want 62 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: a deal, they want arms, and there's nothing that Donald 63 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: Trump would like more than to be able to say 64 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: that normalization happened under him. 65 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 2: When it comes to Ukraine, as Flavia mentioned, Donald Trump 66 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 2: has also said he would bring a speedy end to 67 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: the war. There Limberg's conversations with officials around the globe, 68 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 2: there's great concern that Trump will make good on his 69 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 2: promise by pushing for a deal with Russia's president Vladimir Putin. 70 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: It's very hard to predict how Ukraine will play out. 71 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: So how do you appeal to Trump's transactional nature? And 72 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: one idea that sort has been talented by some at 73 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: NATO is to say, well, you know, mister president, if 74 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: you do that, you will look weak in the eyes 75 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: of China, and they might exploit it in a different way. 76 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: You don't want to look weak next to Shishi Ping. 77 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 1: So the strategy there is really to appeal to his 78 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: sense of ego and the sense that he is standing 79 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: head and shoulders above some of these other rivals. So 80 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: that would be the playbook, if you will, of how 81 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: to sort of deal with the potential that when he 82 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: comes in. Putin has waited long enough pretending that he 83 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 1: wants Harris to be in power. I think he's quite 84 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: looking forward to having Trump. I mean they've clearly had 85 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: a relationship. That much was made clear by the Bob 86 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: Woodward book. So I think the big question is, come 87 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, will Ukraine be sold up the river 88 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: or not? And what can Europe do about it? 89 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 2: And if Harris wins, it's not. 90 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 1: Particularly promising for or it's pretty dispariting for Zelenski in 91 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: the Harris scenario because it's quite clear that Woar fatigue 92 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 1: has dug in right. So a few years ago, when 93 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: Zelensky went to Washington, he was greeted as a war hero. 94 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: Everyone in Congress was supportive that the money was flowing. 95 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: It's just a lot harder three four years down the 96 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: line to get Americans to care about a conflict that's 97 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: far away from home. 98 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 2: And to make that ask for money as well. 99 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: And to ask for money. So she's going to have 100 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: to guss it up with lots of pretty words. But 101 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,600 Speaker 1: I think the message, even though not as brutally delivered, 102 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:57,119 Speaker 1: will be the same. It'll be massaged in a certain way, 103 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: but it'll be listen. Even the fifty billion asset that 104 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 1: has been sort of put forward in terms of a loon, 105 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,239 Speaker 1: the well has run dry, and the pressure to bring 106 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: Zelenskip to the negotiating table is big. 107 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 2: So the third conflict I want to touch on is 108 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 2: a potential conflict. So that's China and Taiwan. I imagine 109 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 2: there's a lot of anxiety in Taipei about who wins 110 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 2: this election. We've kind of gotten a variety of answers 111 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 2: for a President Trump about how he might approach Chinese 112 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 2: invasion of the Taiwan. Do we have a clear sense 113 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: of what he would do, how he would approach that 114 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 2: potential conflict, and then how would a President Harris approach it. 115 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: The one thing has become very clear both from Harris 116 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: and Trump is that whilst they are essentially turning their 117 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 1: back on other conflicts and prioritizing one thing, that thing 118 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 1: is China, and that thing is containing its biggest economic rival. 119 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: So the big question then becomes will the US come 120 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 1: to Taiwan's defense should Taiwan come under attack? And there 121 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: the answer also is uncertain because at the heart of 122 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: all this is the world's chip making in this street 123 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: Taiwan is sitting on something extremely valuable that everyone wants 124 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: a piece of. It's obviously not able to defend itself, 125 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: and the question then becomes to what extent either side 126 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: would get itself involved militarily. And we're looking at a 127 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: scenario that may honestly be decades from actually materializing, and 128 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: so a lot of what you're going to see is 129 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: posturing and everyone trying to sort of unpick different sides. 130 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: A lot of this is going to play out in 131 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: the South China see, So to what extent China can 132 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: lay claim and essentially bully its way in those waters, 133 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: neutralizing and pushing back all sorts of rival claims from 134 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: the likes of Vietnam, Philippines, etc. So it's a slow process, 135 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: and even though the US keeps exercising its right of passage, 136 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: the direction of travel there is that China is increasingly 137 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: on the screws. 138 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg analysts recently forecasted what the fallout could be if 139 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 2: China were to assume full control of Taiwan and Flavia says. 140 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: They concluded it would be disastrous for the global economy 141 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 2: after the break. So what would it cost to implement 142 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 2: Donald Trump's plan to deport eleven million undocumented immigrants from 143 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 2: the US, and what about those giant tariffs he's promising. 144 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 2: We'll talk about what those plans could cost the US 145 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 2: and the rest of the world. One of the biggest 146 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 2: issues in the US presidential campaign has been immigration, and 147 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 2: the platform is put forward by former President Trump and 148 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 2: Vice President Harris stand In. Stark contrast, Bloomberg's Flavia kraus 149 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 2: Jackson says, the policies the next president puts in place 150 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 2: will have massive implications. 151 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: There is the sort of the politics of it that 152 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: are indistinguishable to degree from the economics. And I think 153 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: when Trump calls for the deportation of eleven million undocumented 154 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 1: immigrants and talks about creating the tension camps and deploying 155 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: troops at the Mexican border, what is lost in all 156 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: this is that this is extremely expensive. 157 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 2: According to Bloomberg Economics, if Donald Trump were to carry 158 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 2: out that plan, if you were to reduce the flow 159 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 2: of new immigrants to close to zero and deport those 160 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 2: who have arrived since twenty twenty, that would put a 161 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: three percent hole in US GDP by twenty twenty eight. 162 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 2: But what about Kamala Harris's plans. Bloomberg Economics also took 163 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 2: a close look at what she's proposed. 164 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: Harris, however, has been kind of advocating for title limits 165 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:45,599 Speaker 1: and undocumented inmigration and restrictions. But by blooming Economics calculations, 166 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 1: that would be a lot less expensive. I mean. The 167 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,839 Speaker 1: other thing that's also, of course getting lost in this 168 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,679 Speaker 1: is that is the remittances. Right, So when there are 169 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 1: people in the US earning money, the money that's being 170 00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: earned is going back to the country. 171 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 2: They're sending it at home. 172 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: They're sending it back home. Yeah, that has a net 173 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: positive effect. 174 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 2: Something else world leaders are gaming out is how the 175 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 2: winner of the US presidential election would reshape trade. Former 176 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 2: President Trump has pledged to impose more highly punitive tariffs, 177 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 2: which he says would compel companies that have moved operations 178 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 2: overseas to come back to the US. 179 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 1: If he follows through on his promise of sixty percent 180 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 1: tariffs on China and twenty percent on everyone else, that's 181 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: a game changer. So here, what the figures are, and 182 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: they're startling, is that our model shows that the US 183 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 1: share of global trade would create it to eight point 184 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: five percent by twenty twenty eight from the current twenty percent, 185 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: and that would have a knock on effect on Mexico 186 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: and Canada. But world leaders and diplomats have sort of 187 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: really stopped trying to sort of reason with Trump about 188 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: the economics of tariffs, trying to sort of convince them 189 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 1: they're not good days by conflation. So we're passing on 190 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 1: that pas to consumers. You know, just because you erect 191 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: these tariffs, you don't necessarily change behavior of a night. 192 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: He's just not buying those arguments. And if you can't 193 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: convince someone, then the question is adapting right. Racing for 194 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: impact is going to be ugly. No one comes out 195 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: of a winner in trade wars. But at least this time, Europe, 196 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: at least, which is kind of getting squeezed between China 197 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: and the US and feeling like it has to pick sides, 198 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 1: has at least something to show for it and can 199 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: respond in kind love. 200 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 2: You talked about how a lot of high ranking officials 201 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 2: world leaders look at Kamala Harrison feel like they don't 202 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 2: know her policy positions. Well, when it comes to foreign affairs, 203 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 2: do we know much about what would happen to trade 204 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: if she were to be elected president? Is the assumption 205 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 2: that it would be kind of status quo, a good one. 206 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: I think that would be correct. I mean, where Kamala 207 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: Harris really shines and comes alive is when she talks 208 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: about social issues, when she talks about abortion, when she 209 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: talks about social justice, when she's able to draw on 210 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: her background as a prosecutor, when she's able to talk 211 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: about the legality or illegality of Trump's actions. But you know, 212 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: when it comes to tariffs, I mean, she's essentially supported 213 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: the Biden administration's decision to extend those Trump era tariffs 214 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: on China. She backs you know, the tens of billions 215 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:31,079 Speaker 1: and subsidies for clean energy and infrastructure, and she's embraced 216 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: some trade deals. But this is by no means her 217 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: area of expertise. So I think we would have to 218 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: expect her to sort of really be delegating that to. 219 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 2: Others as government officials worldwide wait for the outcome of 220 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 2: Tuesday's vote. No matter who the winner is, Flavia says, 221 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: one thing is clear that the United States is standing 222 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 2: has changed in recent years. 223 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 1: Think if I was to pull back the lens generationally, 224 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: I would go back to a time both in the 225 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: immediate post war. If you go to countries like Germany 226 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: and Italy and the UK, there was a depth of 227 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:14,599 Speaker 1: gratitude for America's role and essentially saving Europe from the Nazis, 228 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: and there was a sort of embrace of everything that 229 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: was American culture, and that kind of spawned an economic 230 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: revival in momenty of these countries and enthusiasm for American literature, culture, wealth, fashion, 231 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: and everything. And then Europe and the rest of the 232 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: world fell out of love with the US and what 233 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: it represented because it no longer represented these good values. 234 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: What emerged from the wars in Iraq, for example, was oh, 235 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: the US lies or it medals in other countries. It 236 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 1: doesn't like a leader in a certain country, it will 237 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: get involved and depose them. And so the narrative around 238 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: the US started changing. There was a sense of like, 239 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: hold on a second, we're getting scolded and America's wagging 240 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 1: its finger at us. But they also do bad things 241 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 1: and we can point to those bad things. So somewhere 242 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: over those decades, the US lost its moral high ground. 243 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 2: Flavia says, a British diplomat who spoke with Bloomberg, put 244 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:21,119 Speaker 2: it succinctly. 245 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: He made this parallel that empires rise and fall. They 246 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: don't suddenly collapse overnight. It's a long process, it's a 247 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: managed process. And so I think the long view is 248 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: that America is still a very important, potent superpower. But 249 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: what all comes down to is whether it will manage 250 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: its decline in an elegant fashion or whether it will 251 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: sort of go down and flames. 252 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. 253 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 2: This episode was produced by David Fox and Adriana Tapia. 254 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 2: It was edited by Caitlin Kenny and Greg White. This 255 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 2: episode was mixed by Alex Sagura. It was fact checked 256 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 2: by Andreana Tapia. Special thanks to Saks Shimoneses, Young Young, 257 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 2: Dan Williams, and Maya Avrebuk. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. 258 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 2: Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is 259 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 2: Nicole Beemster Bor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. 260 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 2: If you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and 261 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 2: review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It 262 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 2: helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be 263 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 2: back tomorrow.