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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go fifteen Cundy, twenty five,

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five, forty Cody five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kick as block the college football were stunner,

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, please stumbled and football the latter of

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Speaker 3: turn a canter on the d.

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Speaker 1: Don't you believe I'm.

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Speaker 2: Not gonna tame them up the field the night? Holly God,

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Speaker 2: it's not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast. This is the Week nine college football

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Speaker 1: betting preview. I'm stuck in joining me as always fell

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Speaker 1: BBOC Coast Colin will Wilson. Have a lot to get

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Speaker 1: to today. We're gonna get to our marquee games. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to the rundown, We'll go three and out, We'll

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Speaker 1: get to some trash bucks, some Markansas football. A lot

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Speaker 1: to get to. I'll go over some quarterback injuries as well.

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Speaker 1: I actually love this slate. I think it's one of

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Speaker 1: the more underrated ones of the season. I mean it

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Speaker 1: starts with boys UNLB with college college football clop implications

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Speaker 1: on Friday, night, top of a bunch of top twenty

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Speaker 1: five matchups. Texas Vandy, Illinois, Oregon rivalry games, the Sunflower Showdown,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about that, Florida State, Miami, even his own rivalry,

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Speaker 1: Michigan State. Michigan will Central Michigan shave again. We'll see

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Speaker 1: there's a bunch of undefeated ranked teams going on the

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Speaker 1: road BYU Penn State SMU. A lot of good football.

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Speaker 2: The last time, everyone complained that it was a bad slate. Everybody,

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Speaker 2: all the top twenty five teams lost. So just be

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Speaker 2: prepared et your Halloween parties when you got your costumes

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Speaker 2: on this weekend, just make sure and check out the TV.

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Speaker 2: There's probably gonna be some upsets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, some of the markeee games, you might think our

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Speaker 1: market we're going to cut. We covered in so all

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Speaker 1: those games will be covered at the end. But let's

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Speaker 1: jump into our marquee matchups of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 3: Let's check out the marquee matchups we'll all end up

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Speaker 3: betting for Week nine.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get a quick one out of the way.

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Speaker 1: Missouri at Alabama and Alabama I'll to like a seventeen

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Speaker 1: point favorite here against Missouri. Brady Cook is out, It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be Drew Pine.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be the Arizona State, Notre Dame graduate Drew Pine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this could look like Texas A and M versus Missouri.

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Speaker 1: In my opinion, it's a big drop off to Pine.

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Speaker 1: Missouri offense already wasn't playing that well. Here's the thing though,

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Speaker 1: I think Jayo Miller is also heard from watching him

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Speaker 1: last week. So what's my plan this game? I mean,

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Speaker 1: if I had a ticket side, I'm laying it with Alabama.

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Speaker 1: My play in this game, assuming Alabama's gonna be up

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Speaker 1: big at the half, second half hunder oh in this game.

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Speaker 1: I also don't mind the full game under, but anything

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Speaker 1: above fifty one, I.

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Speaker 2: Was gonna go a first half under, so let's I

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Speaker 2: don't mind that either.

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Speaker 1: But my thought process on the second half under is

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Speaker 1: I think Milroe is hurt, so they got to protect them.

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Speaker 1: They're not They want to build a lead and then

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Speaker 1: just get out of there with a win because then

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Speaker 1: their season comes down to the LSU game and they're

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Speaker 1: going into a buy. So it's like get to the buy,

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Speaker 1: get healthy. They're not going to run mill Row when

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Speaker 1: they don't have to, which takes a huge element away

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Speaker 1: from their offense. So and then I just don't see

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Speaker 1: Missouri doing much with Drew Pine. So I think the

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Speaker 1: game would die if Alabama had a big lead, But

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Speaker 1: I don't mind the game under or the first half

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Speaker 1: under as well. It's hard to see Missouri doing much.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, it was a first half under in

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Speaker 2: which I think the number there's like twenty sevens disappearing.

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Speaker 2: As you and I were talking about this, I probably

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Speaker 2: better get on if that's the way I want to go.

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Speaker 2: And I think the thinking behind it was the rushing

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Speaker 2: offense on Alabama has just disappeared like a win. Are

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Speaker 2: we gonna say we're taking over the trench, were going

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Speaker 2: to establish the rush and we're going to pound it

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Speaker 2: all the way? Well, wouldn't you do that against the

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Speaker 2: Missouri offense that is missing their quarterback and missing Nate

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Speaker 2: Noel at running back? Like this Missouri offense is going

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Speaker 2: to be lifeless. Not to mention, they're already like ninetieth

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Speaker 2: in offensive finishing drives and they played us off schedule.

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Speaker 2: They have problems scoring anyways. So if you're Alabama and

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Speaker 2: you're Kaylin Debora, and you need to get your running

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Speaker 2: backs back on track because they've been off. This would

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Speaker 2: be the game to do it. Not to mention, Missouri's

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Speaker 2: defense is outside the top one hundred and I'm sorry

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Speaker 2: they're outside the top. They're out outside the top one

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Speaker 2: hundred and allowing rush explosives, which is perfect for Alabama

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Speaker 2: to try to break one off. Look at Justice Haynes.

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Speaker 2: He's not had an explosive run since Week five against Georgia.

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Speaker 2: Jamarian Miller, he's had one explosive run since Week three

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Speaker 2: against Wisconsin, and Milro couldn't get outside the pocket against Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: With his health information, I don't expect him to do that,

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Speaker 2: but he's only had one explosive the last three games.

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Speaker 2: So to me, this was the game where Kaylyn de

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Speaker 2: Boor could go into the first half. I could only

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Speaker 2: wish it was in the Jefferson Pilot time slot. It's not,

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Speaker 2: but go into the first half as that we are

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Speaker 2: establishing the rush. We need to be a trench team.

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Speaker 2: This is a defense we can do it against. More importantly,

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Speaker 2: I need to save my quarterback from getting beat up.

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Speaker 2: And I don't fear the Missouri offense so I agree

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Speaker 2: with you on your play with the unders. I think

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Speaker 2: I like first half under better just because you're trying

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Speaker 2: to predict, is Kaylin the board gonna come out from

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Speaker 2: the beginning and say I'm establishing the rush because I

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Speaker 2: know I'm not going to be.

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Speaker 1: Challenged unders across the board, and if I do, I

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Speaker 1: would lay it with Alabama. All right, let's move on

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Speaker 1: to newon Eastern on Big ten Network between Washington and Indiana.

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Speaker 2: Ooh, KURTZIGNETTII. Nothing gets people excided like winning.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty simple. I win, Google me. Maybe we'll have

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Speaker 1: our first head to head here. I like Washington, I

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Speaker 1: do need seven. I actually think they got a chance

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Speaker 1: to when this game out right. I faded Signetty last

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Speaker 1: week for the first time all season didn't go well.

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Speaker 1: He's been a machine. He's twenty one and two over

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Speaker 1: his past twenty three games, tied with Kirby Smart for

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Speaker 1: the best record among all coaches. But here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Washington's coming off of a bye, which I

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Speaker 1: think should be really beneficial for a really good head coach,

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Speaker 1: for a team that had so much turnover. I think

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Speaker 1: that buy will serve them well. We'll clean up some

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Speaker 1: of the things that have really been plaguing them, like

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Speaker 1: the penalties, the red zone. But this is the best

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Speaker 1: offense just overall by far, very balanced with Coleman and

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Speaker 1: like Rogers, they have two really good receivers. This offense

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Speaker 1: is very good.

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Speaker 2: But here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: I so I number one, I Washington power rated better

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Speaker 1: higher than Nebraska. Nebraska was catching seven last week in Indiana.

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Speaker 1: That was with Curtis Rourke. This was seven and work

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Speaker 1: was in this game. I wouldn't play Washington after upgrading

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Speaker 1: Indiana again last week, but I have to I think

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Speaker 1: that the drop off is significant. I know that David

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Speaker 1: Jackson came in last week and they put up twenty

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Speaker 1: eight and the second half that was all in short fields.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Nebraska just quit in that game. It was

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Speaker 1: really pathetic. Rourke has been unbelievable. I mean, like NFL ready,

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Speaker 1: he's PFF's highest graded passer. He's number one and passer

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Speaker 1: rating at one twenty eight point nine, fifteen touchdowns, three interceptions,

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Speaker 1: seventy eight percent adjusted completion percentage to go along with

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Speaker 1: a ten and a half yard a DOC. He's been superb,

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Speaker 1: making unbelievable throws, this perfect command of that offense. Jackson

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Speaker 1: was pretty shaky last year. I think it'll be better

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Speaker 1: than he was last year. He's got a little bit

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Speaker 1: more experienced. This system is better, but there's got to

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Speaker 1: be a not you know, a material drop off from

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Speaker 1: Rourke to Jackson. So I have to take Washington here.

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Speaker 1: They've already dealt They've already dealt with this early kick,

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Speaker 1: and they're coming off of BUYE two where they went

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Speaker 1: to Iowa, which is a misleading final. They've been pretty unlucky.

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Speaker 1: This team has been Just look at their underlying metrics,

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Speaker 1: they're good. So with the rock drop off, I predicted

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Speaker 1: this at four and a half. So I like Washington,

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Speaker 1: you disagree.

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Speaker 2: I'm not fading. I'm not going against you. I can

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Speaker 2: tell you that I'm not going to back Indiana with

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Speaker 2: a backup quarterback with a big drop off at quarterback,

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Speaker 2: just like you said, Curtis work is a monster drop off.

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Speaker 2: And I don't understand this number whatsoever, and I don't

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Speaker 2: understand why it ticked up. I took it at five

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 1: I was happy with that.

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Speaker 2: If you want to put it on the board that

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Speaker 2: we're going against each other, I did take five and

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Speaker 2: a half. I'm not sure how comfortable he was six

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Speaker 2: and a half, but but I took seven, so don't Yeah. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so listen Tavin Jackson. There's really high hopes around this

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Speaker 2: Indiana program that he's going to be something special. But

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen anything, not really sure you know what

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Speaker 2: it is that they see because it hasn't been on

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Speaker 2: the field so far. I can't see any quick scoop

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Speaker 2: and scores, sacks and strips, and I just don't see

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Speaker 2: that coming out of this Washington defense on Jackson. He

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Speaker 2: should be very well protected. But the one thing stuck

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Speaker 2: that I just cannot get over is the last time

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Speaker 2: Washington made this trip to the Midwest, Iowa just went rush, explosive,

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Speaker 2: crazy all over them. I mean, just blew them out

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Speaker 2: of the water on the ground.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's definitely concerning you.

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Speaker 2: Washington's best attribute on defense is against the past. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Steve Belichick has been fantastic coverage fourteenth number one nationally

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Speaker 2: and defensive pass EPA. You're just not getting anything down

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Speaker 2: the field through the air. Well guess what Indiana didn't

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Speaker 2: plan on throwing with David Jackson anyways, So what you

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Speaker 2: have to do is you have to handicap that rush

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Speaker 2: explosive element that I was able to throw down on

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Speaker 2: Washington when the Huskies were on the road. That's just

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Speaker 2: going to be tough for Washington defense. They've been great

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Speaker 2: against zone read concepts, and Indiana has run a heavy

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Speaker 2: amount of zone read. We know that with Curtis Rourke,

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Speaker 2: that's Curtis work's a game. But the problem is is

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Speaker 2: that's not what they're going to run with Jackson. They're

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Speaker 2: going to run a little bit of power football. They

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Speaker 2: have been destroyed against power rush and Indiana has a

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Speaker 2: seventy three percent success rate with rushing attempts using power

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Speaker 2: concepts behind a lot And and Ellison. So that is

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Speaker 2: a big part of why I was on the very

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Speaker 2: first bet with Indiana because there was such a big

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Speaker 2: advantage there. I feel like crawling through a doz are

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Speaker 2: looking for a drink of water with this Washington offense

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Speaker 2: trying to score points like hoay, we got into scoring position. Shit,

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Speaker 2: we didn't get any points like it. Just that's the

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Speaker 2: way it feels. Also, stuck. Last thing, major special teams

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Speaker 2: disadvantage here for Washington one hundred and thirty third per

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Speaker 2: SP plus Indiana twelfth so I'm comfortable with my five

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Speaker 2: and a half. I'm not gonna buy off. I just

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Speaker 2: need Indiana to survive here for some of the bracket

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Speaker 2: shenanigans we had earlier this week.

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Speaker 1: Whenish Guy's a smiley short.

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Speaker 2: Is my come.

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Speaker 1: A Notre Dame Navy undefeated Navy in MetLife Stadium taking

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Speaker 1: on Notre Dame. This game's extremely difficult for me to

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Speaker 1: handicap because, again Navy, who's been a machine against the spread,

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Speaker 1: they've also been an over machine. They really haven't played

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Speaker 1: anyone outside of Memphis. They won that game fifty six

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Speaker 1: to forty four. They gave up close to seven hundred

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Speaker 1: yards when you adjust for opponent. Their defense has not

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Speaker 1: been good, and this is by far the best defense

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Speaker 1: they will face, and Notre Dame has proven it against

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Speaker 1: a good schedule. So normally I'd be running to the

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Speaker 1: window of that Navy in this spot. Their offense has

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Speaker 1: been good. The new modified wing tee, spread option, triple

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Speaker 1: option hybrid under new offense coordinator Drew Chronic has been great.

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Speaker 2: I just.

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Speaker 1: I have a weird feeling about this game that Notre

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Speaker 1: names just gonna blow them out. Notre Dame loses games

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Speaker 1: like this when they're you know, it's like sleepy spot.

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Speaker 1: But maybe is right. Notre Name knows it needs to

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Speaker 1: win out to get to the college football playoff. Also,

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame's offense playing better of Lee Riley Leonard getting

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Speaker 1: used to that system, they should be able to run

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Speaker 1: the ball here Ken Navy surprised them earlier. Play keep

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Speaker 1: away enough. Here's the thing, I thank this line is

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Speaker 1: like eleven twelve. I think it's gonna go up. I

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Speaker 1: think Notre Name is gonna get sharp money. So I'll

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Speaker 1: consider Navy. You know, fourteen or above. That's usually a

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Speaker 1: key number with these service academies when they're catching double digits.

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Speaker 1: But it's just hard for me to gauge how good

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Speaker 1: this Navy team really is due to the quality of

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Speaker 1: competition that they've played, and this Notre Dame defense is

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Speaker 1: just on a different level than what they've played. Remember

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Speaker 1: last year, I mean again, it wasn't the same offense,

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Speaker 1: but Notre Dame beat them, what forty two to three

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Speaker 1: over in Ireland. Right, So if I had a take it,

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Speaker 1: I if I had to take it right now, I

249
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Speaker 1: because just a lot of uncertainy, I'd probably would just

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Speaker 1: throw a little little cow chains on Navy money line

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Speaker 1: through the uncertainty. But I have a feeling this could

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Speaker 1: be a long day for Navy. But uh, I might

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Speaker 1: get I might get there if this gets above two touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I'm waiting. I think there's going to be more Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame money that comes in. What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Notre Dame is going to man handle this Navy defensive front.

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Speaker 2: Jemiah Love Jadarian Price four point two and five point

258
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Speaker 2: two yards after first contact using inside zone read concepts

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Speaker 2: that Navy absolutely cannot defend. Navy's one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: second to strength to schedule, they have a thirty eight

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00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,839
Speaker 2: percent success rate against inside zone bottom twenty d and stuff. Right,

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Speaker 2: Your Notre Dame is going to run wild on this

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Speaker 2: Navy defense. But Marcus Freeman got into his presser on

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Speaker 2: Monday and spoke specifically, like what is the prep against

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Speaker 2: an offense like this? Well, we prepared a lot in

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Speaker 2: the summer, But O whoops, Drew chronic comes in from

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Speaker 2: Mercer and we see Navy on film and it's way

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Speaker 2: more than the triple option, right because generally, you know,

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Speaker 2: these teams that have triple options on their schedules are

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Speaker 2: practicing it in the summer. That's what Marcus Freeman did.

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Speaker 2: But then all of a sudden, he's got the Delaware

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Speaker 2: wing t he's got the spread option, he's got full

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Speaker 2: back power, he's got the triple, He's got everything going on.

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Speaker 2: So Freeman's it's.

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Speaker 1: A misdirectionas and lots of discipline. It's all it comes

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Speaker 1: down to.

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Speaker 2: And I think the one thing that he said that

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Speaker 2: really kind of triggered my thinking about the way this

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Speaker 2: game is going to go. He said, you cannot simulate

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Speaker 2: the speed in which Navy runs this offense. We have

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Speaker 2: to stay disciplined. What that means to me is that

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Speaker 2: no matter who the scout team is for Notre Dame,

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00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:07,199
Speaker 2: they are not going to be able to replicate what

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Speaker 2: this Navy team does. They're not gonna be able to

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Speaker 2: replicate Blake Horvath. By the way, I agree with you, Stuck.

286
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Speaker 2: I think Notre Dame's gonna blow him out. But Navy's

287
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,480
Speaker 2: first few series I think should absolutely catch Notre Dame

288
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Speaker 2: off guard. Navy is the second highest scoring team in

289
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Speaker 2: the nation in the second quarter. Those points completely fall

290
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 2: off in the second half. Why because defenses have seen

291
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Speaker 2: the speed they've learned their discipline and they stick to

292
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:33,400
Speaker 2: it and they make better tackles and they slow the

293
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Speaker 2: Navy offense down in the second half.

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Speaker 1: So for me, adjusting too under Golden completely.

295
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:42,000
Speaker 2: So for me, Navy is going to get their points

296
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Speaker 2: in the first half. I think the first three or

297
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Speaker 2: four series, Notre Dame is just gonna their head's going

298
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Speaker 2: to be spinning.

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Speaker 1: Probably could see some wrinkles, some trick plays that could

300
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 1: catch Notre Dame off guard.

301
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Speaker 2: I've already put in a bet on a first half over.

302
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Speaker 2: At some point they're going to figure it out. And

303
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Speaker 2: when they figure it out, that Notre Dame offense is

304
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Speaker 2: still going to rush wild. I like the first half

305
00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,120
Speaker 2: over in this game, and somewhere around the second quarter,

306
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Speaker 2: Marcus Fraeman is going to figure it out. If he doesn't,

307
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Speaker 2: he's going to figure it out in the locker room.

308
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,080
Speaker 2: And then I think Notre Dame second half bet or

309
00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,280
Speaker 2: a Notre Dame live bet, depending on the middle eight. Here,

310
00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 2: Navy is one hundred and twelve. In the middle eight,

311
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 2: they have not managed a clock the four minutes before

312
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Speaker 2: the half or the four minutes after the half. I

313
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:20,720
Speaker 2: think stuck. I am gonna go grab one of these

314
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,240
Speaker 2: thirteen and a halfs, but I really want a live

315
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,120
Speaker 2: bet for three series. They're going to know what it is,

316
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Speaker 2: and then I think Notre Dame takes the game over.

317
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Speaker 1: I would do that because I think that A fourteen

318
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,360
Speaker 1: might eventually pop. Right, let's go to prime time for

319
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,360
Speaker 1: a final marquee game. LSU had Texas, A and M.

320
00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:40,520
Speaker 1: My biggest regret of the weekend was not betting LSU

321
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 1: plus three and a half.

322
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Speaker 2: I know that you did.

323
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Speaker 1: I mean, I make it three and I'm higher than

324
00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 1: the market on text I'm higher and everyone then Text

325
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 1: and him coming into the year. But I knew that

326
00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 1: it was going to come down this game's It's very

327
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,560
Speaker 1: difficult for me to handicap because Text, A and M

328
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 1: is a very tricky team to figure out. I mean,

329
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:02,400
Speaker 1: they look like God's against Missouri. It comes down to

330
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Speaker 1: Connor Wagman.

331
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Speaker 2: Right.

332
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Speaker 1: Then you have some games where you had marce I'll

333
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,520
Speaker 1: reed at quarterback Wegman. The first game of the year

334
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: against Notre Dame. He saw Batti looked against Missouri. He

335
00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 1: was flawless against Mississippi State not so much. Which version

336
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 1: of Connor Wegman do we get? Meanwhile, LSU, It's like, yeah,

337
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 1: I think that they're trending up. Their defense is playing

338
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 1: better under a new defensive coordinator. What weeks flaying like

339
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 1: at an All American level linebacker. I mean, this is

340
00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,200
Speaker 1: like the third straight big game for ls TOO, and

341
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 1: it's going on a road in the hostile environment. They

342
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:33,920
Speaker 1: just you know, they played an overtime game against Ole

343
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,480
Speaker 1: Miss and they went up to Arkansas. Tough spot. For

344
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,920
Speaker 1: what it's worth, though, I think Brian Kelly has been

345
00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:45,400
Speaker 1: extremely successful in this spot. He hasn't been great at

346
00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 1: LSU against ranked teams on the road, but in for

347
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:53,360
Speaker 1: his career, he is fourteen to three and one against

348
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 1: the spread on a road trip second consecutive game or

349
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,520
Speaker 1: more on the road when his team's on normal rest

350
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 1: or less. His last loss came back in two thousand

351
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,639
Speaker 1: and six with Central Michigan. So he's been good in

352
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 1: this spot for what it's worth. But LSU, you got

353
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 1: to keep in mind, like this is a team that's

354
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:11,920
Speaker 1: very close to having three losses. Now. Texas A and

355
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,720
Speaker 1: M could have lost to Arkansas, a team that LSU

356
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,640
Speaker 1: blew out, text A and M only beat Bowling Green

357
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,920
Speaker 1: at home by six. These two teams are are tough

358
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 1: for me to crack. I have LSU power rated slightly

359
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,800
Speaker 1: ahead of text ANM. But the home field in this

360
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,200
Speaker 1: spot is pretty big, which is why I'm around a

361
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,320
Speaker 1: field goal. This game is huge. I mean the winner

362
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 1: of this driver'sy for a Collegeurle playoff berth sole possession

363
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,960
Speaker 1: of first place in the SEC. I think the key

364
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,840
Speaker 1: to this game is two things. Which version of Connor

365
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,320
Speaker 1: Wegmandige number two the battle in the trenches on the

366
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 1: other side of the ball. LSU's offense is not explosive.

367
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 1: It's like nuss Meyer who's been great just like efficiently

368
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,240
Speaker 1: moving the ball making all the right reads, he's been

369
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 1: greater of avoiding sacks and moving the ball down efficiently.

370
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 1: Ken the Texas A and M defensive line, which is

371
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:04,479
Speaker 1: very talented, beat a very talented LSU offensive line, especially

372
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:08,199
Speaker 1: when it comes to pass protection. And get Nussmayer behind

373
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 1: the sticks and get this LU offense behind the chains.

374
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:12,440
Speaker 1: I think those are the two keys to the game.

375
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 1: Right now, I would lean text A ANDM. Now that

376
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 1: lines down to one. I have the text A and

377
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,160
Speaker 1: M to make the Coach twelve playoff ticket, so I'll

378
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 1: be rooting for Texas A and M, but hard team

379
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 1: to trust. Not sure I trust LSU, but definitely would

380
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 1: have liked to have a three and a half in

381
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,760
Speaker 1: my pocket. What are you seeing here?

382
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 2: I make this game Texas A and M minus one.

383
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 2: I snap bet LSU plus three and a half on open.

384
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 2: I would have played it at three. I'd have played

385
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,560
Speaker 2: it at two and a half. The advantage to me

386
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 2: still lies with LSU, and it's a small advantage. So

387
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:45,959
Speaker 2: if you're going to bet this game, I would make

388
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,800
Speaker 2: it one of my smaller smice size bets, but I

389
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:49,360
Speaker 2: still would go with LSU. I think it's a true

390
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,239
Speaker 2: coin flip situation. Both defenses are in the top ten

391
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 2: from a havoc perspective, Texas A and M top ten

392
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:57,640
Speaker 2: and defensive lineyards they're going to be able to shut down.

393
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,360
Speaker 2: Freshman running back Cayden Durham kind of been hit or miss.

394
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 2: He did have three touchdowns against Arkansas, but he's still

395
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 2: not creating a lot of space after he gets touched

396
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 2: three point two yards after first contact. And the LSU defense, though,

397
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 2: when you go to that side, they're emerging. I do

398
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 2: think there can be some hands in Connor Wigman's face edge.

399
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 2: Braden Swinson is going to be all over Connor Wagman,

400
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,640
Speaker 2: which will bring his numbers down because he's not been

401
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 2: as good under pressure this season. It's been a fact stops.

402
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 1: This might be out through one of the best offensive linemens.

403
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 2: Another part of this why I think LSU still has

404
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,159
Speaker 2: the edge even though I make this Texas saying in

405
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,520
Speaker 2: minus one, Elko is in love with the four to

406
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 2: two five, right. That's what he was at Notre Dame

407
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,879
Speaker 2: when he was an assistant for Brian Kelly. That's what

408
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 2: brought him down to Texas. A and M duke here

409
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,439
Speaker 2: four two five where or you can call it two

410
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 2: four five wherever you want to call the edges. But

411
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 2: that's what he runs. What A and M tries to do,

412
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 2: what Elko tries to do. He always wants to create

413
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 2: pressure with four. He wants to have five back in

414
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,400
Speaker 2: the secondary, he wants two corners, and he wants cover three.

415
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,479
Speaker 2: Garrett Andnsmeyer loves cover three. And why does he love

416
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 2: cover three because he's an underneath passer. Kyra and Lacy

417
00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,199
Speaker 2: just has not been explosive on the outside whatsoever. They

418
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:01,919
Speaker 2: have not been able to get behind defenses, and they

419
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: are not going to be able to get behind Texas

420
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 2: A and M, but they are able to hit the

421
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 2: middle against two linebackers here. Damian Sandford, Tory and York

422
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 2: not been good in coverage grading whatsoever, and that is

423
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 2: exactly where nus Meyer is going to target. That's why

424
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 2: I love the prop of Aaron Anderson to go over.

425
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 2: I believe I saw in the market thirty eight and

426
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 2: a half.

427
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,680
Speaker 1: Yards his tail would have a big day too.

428
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. I expect nus Meyer to be clean with his

429
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 2: offensive line, especially from the tackle position, keeping this ferocious

430
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,639
Speaker 2: Texas Ainum defensive line off of him. By the way,

431
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,479
Speaker 2: Nussmeyer much better in a crowd of pocket than Connor Weegman,

432
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 2: has been big advantage there. I believe the underneath game

433
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 2: of Garrett Nusmeyer passing, I believe the protection that he

434
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 2: has is the edge because Connor Weeedman won't have that

435
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,399
Speaker 2: same and Levon Moss is going to be expected to

436
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 2: carry load against a Blake Baker LSU defense that is

437
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 2: surprising every single week. I think there are small advantage

438
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 2: for LSU, and I think it makes a difference in

439
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 2: the game.

440
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 1: A lot of familiar Alreay think these coaches too. Should

441
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:03,399
Speaker 1: be a fascinating game in a very hostile environment. All right,

442
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 1: let's move on to the rundown. Cover about seven games here,

443
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 1: start Texas at Vanderbilt Diego Diego, Texas eighteen and a

444
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 1: half point favorite. Here, here's Pavia as a double digit dog.

445
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: Plus twenty five and a half at Auburn one by

446
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 1: twenty one, plus twelve and a half at Kentucky one

447
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: by seven, plus twenty three and a half versus Alabama

448
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 1: one by five, plus seventeen and a half at Missouri

449
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 1: lost by three in overtime, plus fourteen verse Virginia Tech

450
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 1: one by seven, born one straight up, one loss in overtime,

451
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 1: five and zero against the spread, covering by twenty points

452
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 1: per game on average. On the surface, this number is

453
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: probably short. I priced these things in with how the

454
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 1: Vandy's a service academy. I've been saying it all year.

455
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 1: You just bet them as a double digit dog. You

456
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 1: fade them when they're a double digit favorite. That's what's

457
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 1: happened all year long. I price that in. So I'm

458
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 1: like around eighteen. So like, from a number of perspective,

459
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: I don't show a ton of value. You're gonna hear

460
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 1: a lot of people say like, well, Alabama was a

461
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:09,400
Speaker 1: twenty four point favorite at van Vanderbilt and now Texas

462
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: is only laying eighteen. Well, number one, Vanderbilt has been

463
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: upgraded since they beat Alabama. They beat Kentucky and Texas

464
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 1: just lost and it didn't look great. Texas is still

465
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 1: better than Alabama. And here's the thing, these lines are

466
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 1: all wrong. The market hasn't been able to price service

467
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 1: academies for thirty years. That just told you that probably

468
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: is five and er against the spread. As a double

469
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: digit dog, covering by twenty points per game. Against the spread,

470
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: margins are forty six, twenty, twenty nine, fifteen, and twenty.

471
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: So I think there's gonna be more Texas money that

472
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 1: comes in just from the numbers, guys. So I'm hoping

473
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 1: this gets to twenty one. That's the number that I

474
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 1: would like. I do worry a bit about the Vanderbilt defense,

475
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: but his the thing, Isaiah Bahm is banged up. I

476
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 1: think when yours is banged up, and you might say, oh,

477
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: Texas is gonna be angry, and here they come. Well,

478
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: here's the thing. This happens more times than not, Like

479
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 1: when whenever a team loses a market game, everyone says, yeah,

480
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: they're gonna come out angry the next week. Top twenty

481
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 1: teams following a loss in a top twenty matchup over

482
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 1: the past twenty years are one thirty seven, one, seventy

483
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: five and six against the spread forty four percent. How

484
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: about is a double digit favorite seventy ninety four and

485
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 1: three forty two point seven percent. How about as a

486
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 1: twenty one plus point favor forty two percent. Reason I

487
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 1: say that is the next game we'll mention in Nebraska,

488
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: Ohio State, same thing. Ohio State off that game against

489
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 1: Oregon did up a bye, but everyone's like, oh, they're angry.

490
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: Doesn't always work that way. A lot of times it's

491
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: like you might be a little You're actually a little

492
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: more flat. The market is actually a bit more inflated

493
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: pricing that in. So, Yeah, it's Vanderbilt's going to limit possessions,

494
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: run the clock, just follow the formula. I'm hoping for

495
00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: a better number, but I'll be on dandy in some

496
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 1: form fashion.

497
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean betting Marcus can't catch up to service academies,

498
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 2: and success rate is completely broken because it does not

499
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 2: take in account to fourth downs, which service academies, and

500
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt likes to do a lot.

501
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 1: So Vanderbilt is a service academy academy.

502
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 2: I think the thing that worries me about this, like,

503
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 2: I mean, I get it with Vanderbilt. I think the

504
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 2: thing that worries me is they have no pass rush whatsoever.

505
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,479
Speaker 2: So Quinn's going to be able to sit back there,

506
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 2: eat a sandwich, play play a game of Uno. I

507
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean it's he's going to be able

508
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 2: to pick out his targets no matter if Isaiah Bond

509
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 2: is there or not. To me, this game comes down

510
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 2: to something that we can't find in our in our stats.

511
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 2: Is Texas a little pissed off that they were out

512
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 2: physical by Georgia? I mean, are you?

513
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 1: Also? What does that say about Texas? Like we didn't

514
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 1: know much about Texas. That's why I bet Georgia, like

515
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 1: Michigan stinks people, So that game means nothing. Oklahoma stinks.

516
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 1: Who else did they play?

517
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 2: ULM?

518
00:24:58,880 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: Colorado State?

519
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 3: So?

520
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: And Georgia's defense has not looked great all year? They

521
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: look great there, Carson Beck didn't do much and they

522
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: got blown out at home. Maybe Texas is even worse

523
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: than I'm assuming. I mean Texas advantages. They're gonna be

524
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,360
Speaker 1: way more talented. Yours are gonna have time to throw,

525
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,160
Speaker 1: they have better athletes. Their defensive line is huge advantages

526
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 1: up front. But that was the case with Alabama, that

527
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: was the case with Kentucky. Kentucky's defensive line is better

528
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 1: than Texas's. Vanderbilt won that game out right at Kentucky.

529
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 2: Here's what I'm looking for, Stuck. I'm not gonna have

530
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 2: a pregame bet on this. If Vanderbilt and Diego rack

531
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 2: up two or three first downs in the first series

532
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: that they have, I'm live betting Vanderbilt because I think this.

533
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: I don't think this spread's gonna matter. Either Texas gonna

534
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 2: show up pissed off, blow them out, or Vanderbilt is

535
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 2: going to do their thirty one point five seconds per

536
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: play Service Academy this shit, win first downs two clock

537
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 2: and make it close. Besides the live betting portion of this,

538
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 2: I think there's a scenario that everybody needs to be

539
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: aware of because by the time Stuck and I flip

540
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 2: our microphones on next week, who would you bet for

541
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 2: the College Reulble Playoff? If Vanderbilt wins this game or

542
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 2: barely loses this game and LSU wins, who should you

543
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 2: be buying in the market for the college Wruble playoff?

544
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 1: I mean I would back ALISU right now. Texas A

545
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: and I would have said them, yeah yeah, Texa A.

546
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 2: Now, if Texas A and M loses and Vanderbilt makes

547
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 2: this extremely close, it's done. Tex A ANDAM is gonna

548
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 2: win that game at home on Kyle Field, And if

549
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 2: they lose, you're gonna get a huge juice. I know

550
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 2: you already have a number. I'm just saying for everybody,

551
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 2: you're gonna get a big texanem juicy number if they

552
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 2: lose and Vanderbilt keeps us close, keep your eyes open.

553
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 1: Nebraska, Ohio State. Nebraska catching twenty five and a half.

554
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: Ohio State coming off of a bye after that Oregon game,

555
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: you get that angry narrative here. Presk was embarrassed in

556
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 1: every aspect. Do they show up here? I mean it

557
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: was bad across the board. It looked like they quits time.

558
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 2: To take a bigger fight out of this court stalk.

559
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: Ohio State lost their left tackle Josh Simmons. He's out

560
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: for the year. Right side already had questions. That's something

561
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 1: to watch as far as like they're notational title contention

562
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 1: picture because is their offensive line, you'll be able to

563
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 1: hold off. How does that end up playing out? Rule

564
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: is twenty two and ten against the spread as a

565
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 1: dog of more than a touchdown fourteen and six when

566
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 1: more than ten ten and four and more than fourteen

567
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: tens to play conservative like Ohio State is Penn State

568
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 1: on deck. I don't know how much they want to

569
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: show if they get a big lead exactly, I don't know.

570
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: I think this number is a bit too high. It's

571
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 1: kind of like Nebraska.

572
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 2: Nobody's done what we've done. Nobody's built like us play

573
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 2: because we love the.

574
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: Win and we're winners.

575
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 2: It's way too high, right the number should be I

576
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 2: mean what I make it nineteen. I believe it's p

577
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 2: plus is at twenty two whatever.

578
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 1: They're not like twenty twenty two point three.

579
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 2: I think it's way too high. But the question has

580
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: to be asked, what is Nebraska done to earn your

581
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: trust on the road when Ohio State could simply line

582
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 2: up with Travion Henderson and and.

583
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 1: And quench Resons run. He's been so bad, We're getting

584
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: pushed around.

585
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 2: And offensive finishing drives for Nebraska one hundred and nineteenth,

586
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 2: Like even if they get into special teams to special

587
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 2: teams one hundred and twenty seventh. What has Nebraska? What

588
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 2: is Nebraska done to earn your trust with your money

589
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 2: that you earned all week on the road against Ohio State?

590
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 2: Absolutely nothing. I'm not saying go out and buy Ohio State.

591
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,400
Speaker 2: Absolutely nothing to earn. There's just no bet here. There's

592
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: there's nothing for Nebraska.

593
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 1: I might put a small bet on Nebraska.

594
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 2: Is Matt Rule looking around? Uh?

595
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: Comments were kind of curious. Yeahs, pressers, We'll see Florida

596
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,719
Speaker 1: State at Miami. Florida State a twenty one point favored here.

597
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 2: You told me on Monday we never have to talk

598
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 2: about these guys again.

599
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: Well, the reason I want to talk about it is

600
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: Miami doesn't have many tough games on their schedule, So

601
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: like cam Ward, hi'sman, you want to get some stats here, right. Also,

602
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: I mean Florida State has been on their bad It's

603
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 1: a bad football team, just like Michigan. It's a new

604
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: world to college fotball. Sometimes teams that are really good

605
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 1: do a complete one eighty and you got to downgrade them,

606
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: like seventeen twenty points it's crazy to say out loud,

607
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: but this is the way that it works. Now here's

608
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: the thing, Miami. Who knows who's going to be under center.

609
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: They might be rotating quarterbacks. Miami probably wants to run

610
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: this up right. Last year, Florida State beat them. Crist

611
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: of Ball's first year, Florida State beat them forty four

612
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: to three. And we're forty five to three. And what

613
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: do they do in that game? Novell ran it up,

614
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: ran in for a touchdown late, So I you know

615
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 1: you want to get ward stats. Shove it to Florida State,

616
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: and you know it's really good at never taking knees,

617
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: Nio Crystal Ball, and I don't think he has to

618
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: worry about not taking any to blow this game. I

619
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: actually leaned Miami. I have downgraded.

620
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 2: Oh god, I can look too.

621
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: Sixteen and a half points, fourteen points for me, sixteen

622
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm at twenty two in this game, Michigan.

623
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: I've only downgraded fourteen and a half. So yeah, Florida

624
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: State is the most crazy. I'm at twenty two, actually

625
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: twenty two point six, So I would lean Miami here,

626
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: and I think they want to run it out. Any

627
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: thoughts here.

628
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, So no one's taking knees in this game, because

629
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 2: no matter what, no matter how bad the records are,

630
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 2: there's still a recruiting battle in this state, a monster

631
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 2: recruiting battle. These two teams are going after the same guys.

632
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 2: Whether it's the portal or whether it's high school kids.

633
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 2: They're going after them when they're in seventh grade. So

634
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: this is a really big game from that aspect. I

635
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 2: think the one thing if I had to pick, because

636
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 2: I don't have really a side on the game, I

637
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 2: make it like what twenty one and a half and

638
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 2: the total damn man, I make the total fifty five

639
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 2: point eight and the total on the board is fifty

640
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: four and a half. So as much as I'd like

641
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 2: to get into the over on the narrative that these

642
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 2: two teams aren't going to quit, there's one big problem

643
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 2: I have with Florida State, and that the fact is

644
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 2: that their seventieth in defensive havoc. How do you beat

645
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: cam wore defensive havoc? How do you stop them defensive habit?

646
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: It's just they're not going to get behind the line

647
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: of scrimmage. They're not going to swat stuff down. Florida

648
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 2: State's just really kind of pathetic. Florida State number one,

649
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 2: and special teams. Could be a punt return, could be

650
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 2: a kick return, could be a block punt, could be

651
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 2: something like that that gets you a nice little backdoor

652
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 2: when they're down by twenty eight.

653
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: As some you, Duke actually might look at the under here.

654
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: The pace is going to be the pace is going

655
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: to be high. But you got to hit pass exposives

656
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: vers SMU Duke can't. You got to hit run exposives

657
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: rus Duke, SMU can't.

658
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:05,479
Speaker 2: Right.

659
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 1: Also, they lost might hurt your SMU futures. They lost RJ.

660
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 1: Maryland for the season. It's a big loss their star

661
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: tight end, and maybe Duke secondary isn't as good as

662
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 1: their numbers. But you know, they haven't really played anybody.

663
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: But a lot of familiarity between these head coaches too,

664
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: which I think lends itself to an under in this

665
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: particular case.

666
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: You agree there, Yeah, absolutely, I was on the under

667
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 2: all the way RJ. Maryland getting hurt. He was the

668
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 2: top target on the team. He's a tight end. The

669
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 2: next tight end on the on the list of targets

670
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 2: of the team, Matthew Hibner. He has seven targets on

671
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: the season, But if you look at the offense of

672
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: what Kevin Jennings throws to, it is a slot driven offense.

673
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 2: The next highest targets is wide receiver Jake Bailey. He

674
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 2: has as many appearances as in the slot as r

675
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: J Maryland. So the question is who's going to fill

676
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 2: that other slot spot and can this SMU offense be

677
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: as dynamic as it was when they had RJ. Maryland.

678
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: SMU's biggest advantage in this game come against the coming

679
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 2: the rushing attack against the Duke defense. SMU can still

680
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 2: run the ball even with RJ. Maryland out. Since Week

681
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 2: four against TCU, Rishard Smith has been just workhorse, running

682
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: back over four yards after first contact. He's created twenty

683
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 2: four missed tackles, and the Duke offense is just gonna

684
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 2: have all kinds of problems. With the exception of pass blocking,

685
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: the offense has just been horrific, near dead last, and

686
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 2: all rushing metrics near dead last. I'm creating a methodical drive.

687
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 2: There's just too many disadvantages, and by the way, they're

688
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: pretty terrible in red zone attempts. I like the under

689
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 2: here for the simple fact that I think SMU is

690
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: going to have to figure out their new world. Without RJ. Maryland,

691
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 2: I think there could be a little bit more rushing attempts.

692
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 2: And the last thing on R J. Maryland, he was

693
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: the only receiver, the only target on this SMU offense.

694
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 2: It was over two yards per route run. So I

695
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 2: think that explosive number that we've seen for SMU, which

696
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: right now is sitting at eighteenth and pass epa. I

697
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 2: think you're going to see a little bit of a

698
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: downgrade on that without Maryland because he was the only

699
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 2: one over two yards per out run. So yeah, under

700
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: with you.

701
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: I like Kansas in the Sunflower show Down catching double digits.

702
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: Kansas is one of the unluckiest teams in the cutter.

703
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: Just lost like five straight one possession games, blew a

704
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: bunch of leaves, had bad turnovers. Kansas State still not

705
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 1: fully sold on. Yeah, they rolled West Virginia. West Virginia

706
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 1: a ton of injuries and turnovers in that game. They

707
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 1: rolled Oklahoma State, looked like they had quit. They beat

708
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: Arizona that is not aged well. I mean that it

709
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: doesn't really been impressed with their their schedules. Yeah, they

710
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 1: won at Colorado by three in the comeback effort, but

711
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: I think Kansas is game here to keep up. I

712
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: think Kansay's gonna have success on the ground, but I

713
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: trust Leopold. Kansasate has been really, really good at home

714
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: under Climbing is a favorite, which is scary, but I

715
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: think it's numbers too high.

716
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta I can't go against you on that.

717
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 2: I do like Kansas City, but I can't go against

718
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 2: you because I have a Game of the year at

719
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 2: six and a half, so you know, got some value

720
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: in that. Just just hope that that cash is. If

721
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: I was play Devil's advocate, I would say, you know,

722
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 2: Kansas State is going to be able to stop the

723
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 2: Jayhawks from running the ball. Jayalks are going to have

724
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 2: to go to the air because Kansas State has no

725
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: pass rush one hundred and fourteenth and pass rush. And

726
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 2: it's good news if Kansas gets into scoring position. They're

727
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 2: actually number one in offensive finishing drive, so they are

728
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 2: good there. The defense, though, is going to be the

729
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 2: problem if the handicap. If Kansas is going to cover

730
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: this game, they have got to do better on the

731
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 2: ground against Kansas State running power and counter and all

732
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 2: that stuff that Climbing likes to run. One hundred and

733
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 2: twenty second in defensive line yards. That is not going

734
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 2: to get it done in this trench against Kansas State.

735
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 2: Kansas State also pretty big and rush EPA at something

736
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 2: Kansas is going to have to control. But that's why

737
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 2: the points spread is in the double digits. So we'll see.

738
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: I'm just going to sit back with my game of

739
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: the year six and a half and another Sunflower showdown

740
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 2: that Kansas State generally dominates, but there are a few

741
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: advantages here for Kansas and the numbers.

742
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, Daniels is playing better too. He was a disaster early.

743
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: He must be healthy.

744
00:34:55,560 --> 00:35:00,080
Speaker 1: Yeah. Bowling Green against Toledo, I like the falc I

745
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 1: think they're the best team.

746
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 2: The MAAC.

747
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: I still empowered it that way. I mean last week, Yeah,

748
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: Toledo beat Northern Illinois battle backup quarterbacks. Northern Illinois scored

749
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: six points. They ran ninety plays in four hundred ards

750
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 1: offense with a backup quarterback. They went two of eight

751
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: on fourth down. Baslac looks fine and healthy last week.

752
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: Look at this Bowling Greens resume. They're three of their

753
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 1: losses by six at Texas A and m Alexwell playoff

754
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: team potentially by seven f Penn State and then by

755
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: three against Old Dominion when they blew that late lead.

756
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:41,280
Speaker 1: I mean, this team is I think legit. They've doubled

757
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: some injuries. They're now healthier. Kentucker Gleason, I don't really

758
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,720
Speaker 1: care if he plays or doesn't, but he's questionable for Toledo,

759
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,439
Speaker 1: and Toledo can't run the ball. Literally an impoverished run game.

760
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: So it's all up to Gleason. They do have good weapons,

761
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: but BG with Olyutkin and company, they're third in the

762
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 1: country in pass six. That's right, that's secondary is great,

763
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 1: Poleast will make some mistakes. Still not fully sold on

764
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: the Toledo defense.

765
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 2: I like.

766
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: I like Bowling Green on the road in the glass bowl.

767
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, put it on the board. Bowling Green. Strength of

768
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 2: schedule fortieth, Toledo one hundred and eighteenth. So when you

769
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 2: look at Toledo's numbers and you see things that are red,

770
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: you're thinking, holy cow, you've played a really soft schedule

771
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 2: and you're really bad at well, let's start pass blocking.

772
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 2: They're not going to be able to protect whatsoever. They

773
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 2: can't run the ball. They're one hundred and fifteenth in

774
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:33,760
Speaker 2: rushing success. Right, and oh by the way. Sometimes sometimes

775
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 2: you can break off pass explosives. That's not going to

776
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 2: work against Bowling Green twelfth nationally in defensive pass EPA.

777
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 2: You know, I have a seven to one ticket on

778
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 2: Bowling Green to win the MAC. If you listen to

779
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 2: the new BCS the other day, I'm about to throw

780
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 2: a buffalo one in there. I think there's still an

781
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 2: eleven to one out there. But this is to me,

782
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 2: this is it for Toledo, and I know they're the

783
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: favorite in this game. But if you believe in your

784
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: seven to one ticket, or if you don't have one,

785
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:56,439
Speaker 2: we've got to have this game.

786
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 1: Yep, huge game for the MAC. One final one. Like

787
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 1: Sincy against Colorado. I think this line's too high now.

788
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 1: Colorado taking money and Colora was playing a lot better.

789
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: The defense is playing a lot better. But look, Arizona

790
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: had a bunch of injuries. They lost to Kansas State,

791
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 1: who even Ay Johnson got banged up in the game.

792
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 1: They beat UCF when UCF was not using their ideal quarterback.

793
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: They beat Baylor at home in overtime, Like, has it

794
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: really been that impressive? Getting blown out by Nebraska? That

795
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 1: doesn't look great. Now, you know, you play Colorado State

796
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 1: when they were banged up. I think this is the

797
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: peak of the market for god and at Cincinnati just

798
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 1: doesn't get enough respect. This is a team that's a

799
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 1: couple of plays away from being undefeated. And I can

800
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 1: certainly tell you this line wouldn't be five and a

801
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 1: half right now. I mean Cincinnati lost to Texas Tech

802
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: by three on the road in a game where all

803
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 1: their running backs got hurt. They lost by one to

804
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 1: pit in a ridiculously unlucky game where they blew the

805
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: late lead late so fourth down to lay a game

806
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 1: signs too high.

807
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 2: It is, yeah, and I it can happen. There's things

808
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 2: with Colorado that are starting to poke out, like it's

809
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 2: not hard to figure out what they're going to do offensively,

810
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 2: and that makes it easier for defensive coordinators to game

811
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,439
Speaker 2: plan around this. Cincinnati is really good at havoc their

812
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: top ten nationally in defensive finishing drives. Colorado may be

813
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 2: able to get down the field with Shader throwing the ball.

814
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 2: Although the pass defense is the best part of the Bearcats,

815
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 2: there are things that just plague this offense. Colorado offense

816
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 2: is one hundred and twenty second and offensive momentum, killer penalties,

817
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: missfield goals, just taking themselves out of drives is just

818
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 2: a staple of this Colorado offense defensively. You know, I

819
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 2: think they can be a taken advantage too. They still

820
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 2: don't have a pass rush, so you can put it

821
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 2: on the I go, man, I've been I'm so hesitant

822
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: because it is these sadder field teams just seem to

823
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 2: beat themselves and shoot themselves in the foot. But it

824
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 2: hasn't been happening this year, so you can put it

825
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: on the board. I'm going to join you.

826
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna wait right now. It's at five and

827
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: a half at dead rage. I'm gonna se where this goes.

828
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,919
Speaker 1: Colorado Public team, that's true. Yeah, I'll be on since

829
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: he at some point before game time time for some trash.

830
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: The trash man pick of the week. I'm the trash man.

831
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 3: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

832
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: totally unreliable, undependable.

833
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:12,799
Speaker 1: That's it. You've been told off.

834
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 2: How do you like that? Good?

835
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 1: Let's start. I'm gonna start just a quick one sentence

836
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 1: with your team. I'm in on them playing a lot

837
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 1: better and after the bye rice catch them way too

838
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 1: many at Yukon. I don't this This line should again

839
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 1: liked like color they slunchould be like a field goal,

840
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 1: playing much much better right now? Who is Yukon to be?

841
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 1: I mean U cons he had way too much respect

842
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 1: in the market. Would they all that money they took

843
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 1: against Temple? They should have lost the Temple at home?

844
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: Give me the als?

845
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 2: What is this line? I make this game much shorter.

846
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: I make this game four three point two. I'm just

847
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 1: waiting to see if I can get a seven?

848
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 2: Like am i am? I reading that another famous power

849
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,760
Speaker 2: rating system makes this fourteen? What the hell is this line?

850
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 2: Sp plus? Really? Rice can actually defend the rush a

851
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: little bit. They have a better strength schedule. Let's go

852
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: with the owls and you know what, let's get some

853
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 2: more outweets out there. Since the Aljaff is the turning head,

854
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 2: you got to use it, and we're going to use

855
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: it on Rice when they cover.

856
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: And it's fourteen, I'm actually no, I'm right around four too.

857
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: I just checked four and a half. Actually yeah, I'm

858
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 1: just waiting to see if I can get a seven.

859
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 1: It looks like it might start ticking down now, but

860
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 1: I'm just waiting monitoring. Next up, let's go. Now, we're

861
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,800
Speaker 1: gonna get real ugly. Got some vintage vintage trash teams

862
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 1: in here. Akron, My goodness, Akron, off of buye here.

863
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: They're playing much better and look they needed to buy.

864
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: They had a brutal non conference schedule. They were at

865
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: South Carolina, at Rutgers, at Ohio State. Their offense has

866
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 1: really been rolling since they kind of started playing teams

867
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 1: in their own weight class. This Akron defense, I think

868
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 1: is underrated.

869
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 2: In the MAC.

870
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 1: EMU has played nobody. Strength of schedule one hundred and

871
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 1: forty seven if you include FCS teams. They've won a

872
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: ton of close games. They beat Central Michigan last week.

873
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: It was down to their third string quarterback when they

874
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 1: were down eighteen in the fourth quarter. Their other wins

875
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 1: came against Kent State, Saint Francis Jacksonville State by three

876
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 1: in double overtime, and UMass, I mean again, this Eastern

877
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: Michigan team is doing. You got to give credit to

878
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: Chris Creighton, but Ackron a much tougher schedule, playing much

879
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: better here. They're owing three in the MAC, but they've

880
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 1: been within one possession in the fourth quarter and all

881
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 1: their games despite a pretty difficult start to league play.

882
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: I like the Zips.

883
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 2: Here, this is the Zips. Can you believe One of

884
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 2: the first bets I made on Sunday was Ackron plus five.

885
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 1: So I put it on the board to me.

886
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 2: Okay, so we talked about this, Yeah, put it on

887
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 2: the board to me. We talked about this on the

888
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 2: new BCS. Western Michigan had a monster fraud box score.

889
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, against Ackron. Ackron put up five hundred yards.

890
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 2: Right right, Ackron put up five hundred yards And it

891
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: just caught my eyes, like, I'm betting this team. And

892
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: then when I saw it was Eastern Michigan, their box

893
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,800
Speaker 2: score frauds themselves. Go check out the Central Michigan and

894
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 2: the Kent Both of those teams had higher overall yards

895
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 2: per play.

896
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan were playing for third string quarterbacks.

897
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 2: East Eastern Michigan plus nine and turnovers over the last

898
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 2: three games. You are living on borrowed time, my friends.

899
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 2: Let's go Akron.

900
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 1: Zip's out right? Well, you mentioned Kent State. I like

901
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 1: Kent State plus seventeen and a half against Western Michigan.

902
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 2: This gang that reminds me of one of my favorite

903
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: childhood flicks. No bang bang, and a whole lot of

904
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 2: chitty chitty. You don't remember bang no bang bang, a

905
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:34,479
Speaker 2: whole lot of chitty chitty.

906
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 1: Western Michigan. You want to talk about a team living

907
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 1: on borrow time. Here are their three wins. They beat

908
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 1: ball State forty five, forty two, Akron, and Buffalo last week.

909
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 1: By the way, Akron had a minus four turnover margin

910
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: in that game here, So they had three close wins

911
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 1: against teams that aren't you know, Buffalo, ball State and Akron.

912
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 1: That's not the hardest man start to the schedule. In

913
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 1: those games, they allowed those three offenses the game five

914
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 1: point fifty one, five oh one, and three ninety seven.

915
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 1: They've been outgained in their three MAC wins by one

916
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 1: hundred and twelve yards, but they benefited from a plus

917
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 1: six turnover margin. Western Michians offense is great, offensive line

918
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 1: is great. There are healthy now they're gonna move the

919
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,760
Speaker 1: ball here. But Kent State can keep up. Western Michigan's

920
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: defense is legit horrendous. So there's many pass for Kent State,

921
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 1: who they've shown juice. They've gotten to thirty plus against

922
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan and ball State. They can get in the

923
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 1: back door he or two.

924
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 2: Uh.

925
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: This is also just a bad spot for Western Michigan.

926
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,720
Speaker 1: They got that thrilling win, they got BG and NIU

927
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 1: coming up sleepy spot. I make this around fifteen fifteen

928
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:46,280
Speaker 1: and a half, and again we're fading two MAC favorites

929
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 1: at home MAC favorites and at home in league play

930
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: over the past ten season forty two percent against the spread.

931
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 1: Just not the home field is always over inflated. So

932
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: give me Kent State plus seventeen and a half at

933
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: Western Michigan and that to hold your notes special listen.

934
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 2: If Kennesau State can dominate Liberty, anything can happen, right

935
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 2: who shout out to my wife who called them Krenshaw State.

936
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 2: When is Krenshaw State? Come on tonight? I was like that,

937
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 2: that's not a team. I'm not going to join you.

938
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 2: There's one big advantage here. Kin State is second and

939
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 2: past EPA. I bet you have to look at how

940
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 2: that is calculated, But you can calculate Western Michigan. They

941
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 2: are almost dead last and allowing passing EPA. But that

942
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 2: is Kent State's only way. Craig, maybe to get some

943
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 2: numbers on the board, but I don't want you to

944
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 2: put on the board. I'm not going to join you.

945
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 2: I will do Acron with you. I can't Dirice, I can't. Yeah,

946
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 2: and Rice, I can't digest Kent State with you, So

947
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 2: good luck in your trash. I'll take two of the three.

948
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 1: All right, that's your trash Kent State, Acor and Rice.

949
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: Trash is seven and three on the year for me,

950
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: one to zero for Colin. With Rice, Rice makes it

951
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 1: back to the trash board. All right, let's go nowhere fast.

952
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 2: You are about to enter a world unlike any you've

953
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 2: ever seen before, where the beautiful, the brutal, and the

954
00:44:58,920 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: brave o.

955
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 1: San Diego State back in action, hosting Washington State. Of course,

956
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 1: San Diego State fourteen and a half point dog fifty

957
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 1: seven and a half is the total. Where are you going?

958
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, We're gonna take the over this game. There will

959
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,280
Speaker 2: be no resistance to John Materi. For Wazoo. San Diego

960
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 2: State is one hundred and thirtieth in defensive line yards.

961
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 2: Materier is going to run wild. Wazoo is top ten

962
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 2: and rushing EPA. San Diego State's defense one hundred and

963
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 2: fifteenth and allowing rush explosives. And that's with the strength

964
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 2: of schedule. That's one hundred and twenty fourth. I what

965
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: is stopping Washington State from trotten down the field? I

966
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: have no clue. Both of these teams extremely fast, twenty

967
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 2: four point five seconds per play. This is not a

968
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 2: successful San Diego State offense. They do not move the chains.

969
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 2: They just create blosive chunk plays. Wazoo's near dead last

970
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 2: and allowing rush explosives. There's gonna be some long touchdowns here.

971
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 2: Just get your CBS Sports turned on, get some popcorn,

972
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 2: and we're going over fifty seven and a half here.

973
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:17,720
Speaker 1: All right over in San Diego State. Wazoo colling on Arkansas. Arkansas,

974
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: after disappointing effort against ELSA, will travel down to cow

975
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 1: Bell Country to take on Missippi State. This lines down

976
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: to six and a half. I mentioned to you earlier

977
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 1: the week, I was like, I think this line's two.

978
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: I should have taken a seven and a half. The

979
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 1: one thing I'm worried about is just like Missispi State

980
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 1: has been a covering machine of late. They've been better overall,

981
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 1: trending in the right direction with their freshman quarterback. But

982
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 1: they've played what Texas, Texas A and M and Georgia

983
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 1: It's a long season for them, is it? Just like

984
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,800
Speaker 1: the question is is like, does Arkansas show up? So

985
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: I'd lean Misippi State at seven or above? What do

986
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: you see here?

987
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 2: Whoo pig suy absolute dumpster fined, dumpster f I don't

988
00:46:58,560 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 2: know how we win a game the rest of the year.

989
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 2: Just blow the program up, give us a death sentence.

990
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 2: Collins talking razorback football. I agree with you. The attitude

991
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 2: is shifted a little bit in the locker room. This

992
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 2: is a game Arkansas absolutely has to have if you

993
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,359
Speaker 2: look at the remainder of the schedule, because the only

994
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 2: other winnable game I believe on the schedule is LA

995
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 2: Tech and they have to have that to get to

996
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 2: bull season. So for you, my friend, this is a

997
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 2: This is a big game for you if Mississippi State

998
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: pulls this off, because I don't think they can win

999
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 2: anything else on their schedule.

1000
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 1: But law Tech get ready to learn neck race, buddy.

1001
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 2: Mississippi State looks they are putting up numbers in the

1002
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 2: rushing analytics against some of the toughest defenses they face.

1003
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 2: Against Georgia, there's other ones out there. Missispi State's doing

1004
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 2: things I did not expect under Jeff Levy's offense. So

1005
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,320
Speaker 2: I think this is a battle. I take the points,

1006
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: and I'm just going to cross my fingers at arts

1007
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 2: like I would like to go to an Arkansas Bowl game,

1008
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 2: but it has. Hogs have to have this win or

1009
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 2: Pittman's were right back up there in the coaching hot seat, and.

1010
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 1: You're right back to wearing a neck brace. All right,

1011
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, Let's go three and out.

1012
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1013
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: Let's get right into it with some Friday night lights.

1014
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 2: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1015
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 3: Let's go play football.

1016
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: Let's start with the big one colin Boise State traveling

1017
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 1: to UNLV, the same place that they went down to

1018
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:33,760
Speaker 1: and rolled the Rebels in the Mountain West Championship last season.

1019
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 1: During their late season surge, Boise State was a two

1020
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, got up to three three

1021
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 1: and a half, which is where it's sitting right now.

1022
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:49,800
Speaker 1: I think this is a good spot, just on the

1023
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 1: surface for Boise State coming off of by two weeks

1024
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: to prepare for this huge games. We have college football

1025
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 1: and Mountain West implications should say College caball playoffs and

1026
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:08,919
Speaker 1: Mountain West Championship implications. Meanwhile, UNLV defense on the field

1027
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 1: for ninety plays in an overtime game against Syracuse go

1028
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,320
Speaker 1: to Altitude against Utah State defense on the field for

1029
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 1: ninety plus plays go to Corvallis. That game goes right

1030
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 1: down to the final play of the game. Could there

1031
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 1: be some fatigue here? Could that lead to more Ashton

1032
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 1: Genty broken tackles which he just racks up yards after

1033
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:36,280
Speaker 1: contact on a weekly basis better than really any running

1034
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: back we've seen in twenty plus years so far to date.

1035
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 1: The Boise State defense does have some vulnerabilities on the

1036
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:47,359
Speaker 1: back end, but one thing they do well is get

1037
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 1: after the quarterback. I think that that could end up

1038
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 1: being the difference here. Boise State with Ashton Genty going

1039
00:49:56,120 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 1: to get their yards, going to be in much more

1040
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 1: manageable thirs down situations, whereas UNLV are they going to

1041
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 1: have just too many negative plays with Hodjmaleiku Williams against

1042
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:13,160
Speaker 1: that Boise State defensive front which is really getting after

1043
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 1: the quarterback, and then they're going to have more, you know,

1044
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 1: tougher third down situations known passing downs. The other thing

1045
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 1: to note here UNLV extremely reliant and that's part of

1046
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:32,200
Speaker 1: the Barrioutam defense, but they have been causing havoc and

1047
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 1: turnovers as much as any team in the country, even

1048
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: getting like you know, punt blocks and things of that nature.

1049
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 1: The Boise State really takes care of the football. Who

1050
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 1: will win the turnover battle probably go a long way

1051
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 1: and determining this one as well. Can you and LV

1052
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 1: keep that pace up of taking the ball away or

1053
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,800
Speaker 1: will Boise State continue to not give it away? What

1054
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 1: are your thoughts here?

1055
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 2: The money that has been on Boise State is real.

1056
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 2: I hit the opener on the money line. There was

1057
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five's minus one thirties out there. The

1058
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 2: number took off a two and a half three. As

1059
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 2: you and I are recording this three and a half.

1060
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 2: I would still buy it. I make this game Boise

1061
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:12,440
Speaker 2: minus four, and I go back to the Mountain West

1062
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 2: championship game in Allegiance last year, and Boise won that

1063
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,240
Speaker 2: game forty four to twenty. I think it's worth noting

1064
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 2: there were forty eight points scored in the first half

1065
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,799
Speaker 2: of that game. They just came out blaze with points

1066
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 2: on both sides. Adjustments were made and Boise's coaching staff

1067
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,320
Speaker 2: really won that game. So I have no problem with

1068
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 2: Spencer Danielson and yes, even Eric Shenander, who I have

1069
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 2: not liked. Backing all the days back to Nebraska, that

1070
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,879
Speaker 2: defense getting prepared for the go go of Brendan Mary

1071
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 2: in there. Now they're going to face Hodge in the

1072
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 2: league Williams here, and you have to ask, like, can

1073
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 2: he be the difference maker because he does have that

1074
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 2: deep passing element that could get into the Boise secondary.

1075
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 2: But I keep going back to Boise State schedule this year.

1076
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 2: They've already played Washington State, and you say, well, can

1077
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 2: they stop Hodge from running around all over the place.

1078
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 2: My answer is yes, because John Mattier similar style quarterback.

1079
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: He's Washington State and rushing, a heavy deep passer. He

1080
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 2: was shut down. He had twenty rushes for just twenty

1081
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 2: eight yards. I'm sure there's some sack yard at Gender.

1082
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 2: I think there were eight sacks in the game. They

1083
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 2: got to him, took that away from him. Twenty six

1084
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:13,360
Speaker 2: and thirty seven passing and he had three hundred and

1085
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 2: twenty seven yards. But from a rushing perspective, that was

1086
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:18,720
Speaker 2: completely taken away from him. So I see the exact

1087
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 2: same thing here. I think Hodge is gonna get that

1088
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 2: passing game going. Boisse's one hundred and twenty second tackling.

1089
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 2: You go back to that Georgia Southern game, it was just,

1090
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 2: you know, Boise defenders bouncing off Georgia Southern runners all

1091
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,840
Speaker 2: the time. So there's gonna be UNLV with their moments

1092
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 2: where they're going to create chunk plays and Boise can't tackle.

1093
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 2: But at the same time, Boise's gonna have that habit

1094
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 2: going and be able to pull Hodge down, which is

1095
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 2: why you saw come through the action app earlier today,

1096
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 2: Hodge was listed at sixty and a half rushing yards.

1097
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 2: I mean in college sacks count against that, and I

1098
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 2: think that's going to be a big component, So I

1099
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 2: did go the under on that. You also have to

1100
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:52,880
Speaker 2: think about the pressure it's gonna be on Hodge. His

1101
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 2: adjusted completion right dips from eighty to fifty eight percent

1102
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,320
Speaker 2: when he gets press through space. Yeah, he it's not

1103
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 2: been very good, and you have to wonder how many

1104
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:03,359
Speaker 2: explosives are going to be for UNLV, especially if there's

1105
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,520
Speaker 2: a pressure pocket. The UNL defense has improved, but their

1106
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:08,759
Speaker 2: biggest problem against this Boise State offense, like are they

1107
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,880
Speaker 2: going to stop ashing gent no, they're one hundred and

1108
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 2: thirteenth in defensive finishing drives. They're terrible in defensive stuff, right,

1109
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:19,319
Speaker 2: they're eighty second and other rushing metrics gent touchdowns. I'm

1110
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 2: sure they're priced pretty high, but I mean, if you

1111
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 2: could get some sort of like one and a half

1112
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 2: two and a half over, maybe worth some couch change

1113
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 2: to throw on that. But I just I don't see

1114
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:33,440
Speaker 2: any resistance to offensive quality drives and finishing drives. I'm

1115
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 2: expecting plenty of points here. I just expect a ton

1116
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 2: more from UNLV, But be careful with this number. Sixty

1117
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 2: five is the biggest key in this range. We're hovering

1118
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:43,879
Speaker 2: around sixty four and a half. Don't know if there's

1119
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 2: going to be a push. I would be much more

1120
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 2: comfortable with the first half over because of last year's

1121
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 2: script where they just took hay makers at each other.

1122
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 2: Spencer Danielson for Boise State made adjustments on the defensive side,

1123
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: and Ricky White never saw the ball in the second half,

1124
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 2: So I love my Boise ticket, still take it at

1125
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 2: three and a half. I would consider a first half

1126
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:06,320
Speaker 2: over and take a peek at those hadje rushing yards

1127
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 2: because one of the books one of the national books

1128
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:10,719
Speaker 2: already took it down to fifty four and a half

1129
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 2: after I hit it a couple hours ago, so I'm

1130
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 2: not sure where I'd stop hitting it. But Hodge is

1131
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 2: gonna get sacked here.

1132
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, sack yardage obviously, bounce against rushing yards and Boise

1133
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 1: Statesmen as good as any defense in the country at

1134
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 1: racking those up. Let's move on to some ACC action

1135
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 1: between Boston College and Louisville. Louisville seven seven and a

1136
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 1: half point favorite. I like DC here, hopefully you get

1137
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: the good Tommy Gunn at quarterback, but this is more

1138
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: of a fade of Louisville in the spot coming off

1139
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,239
Speaker 1: that just gut wrenching loss to Miami, got a couple

1140
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 1: of calls that didn't go their way. Third loss of

1141
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 1: the season. What does that mean? Seasons pretty much over?

1142
00:54:56,480 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 1: They had, you know, college pool playoff ACC Championship aspirations

1143
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 1: pretty much out the window now traveling up to BC

1144
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 1: on a short week in the game sandwich between Miami

1145
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 1: and Clemson, and just so, where is this Louisville team

1146
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:20,720
Speaker 1: att mentally? I don't know if it's signal or just noise,

1147
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 1: but you know, Colin Lacey, one of their big transfer

1148
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 1: editions at wide receiver return man. He was opting out

1149
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 1: for the rest of the season. So maybe that's just

1150
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:33,320
Speaker 1: the signal of where this team is that mentally, I

1151
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 1: took the home dog here.

1152
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 2: Any thoughts, I was surprised to see the number go

1153
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 2: from six and a half up to seven and a

1154
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 2: half with the announcement of that of Colin Lacey. That

1155
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 2: is a monster piece of that offense. The reason I've

1156
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,320
Speaker 2: hesitated because we talked about this on the New BCS

1157
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 2: about Boston College being the side. When I looked at

1158
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:51,839
Speaker 2: six and a half, I was like, I do make

1159
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 2: it nine, and I'm wondering why it's trickling up. I

1160
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,400
Speaker 2: will be on BC with you. I just think that

1161
00:55:57,440 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 2: there's a chance that we get through a couple of

1162
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 2: these these numbers that don't these middling numbers that don't

1163
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 2: mean anything, so we could maybe touch eight. I think

1164
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 2: I would just wait out for the best possible number.

1165
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 2: And you mentioned like seasons over, they just had a

1166
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 2: close loss. That's what all the losses have been. Three

1167
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 2: of their last four games have been a losses by

1168
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 2: a single TD by single possession. Notre Dame SMU Miami.

1169
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 2: Now you've got your best player on off.

1170
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 1: Virginia was right down to the wire.

1171
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, boy, Virginia we got to talk about on some

1172
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 2: fine time on another pod. They're showing up somehow, and

1173
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 2: they do have a common opponent, these two teams, Boston College,

1174
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:34,400
Speaker 2: when Louisville do have a common opponent. The problem with

1175
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:37,760
Speaker 2: BC is they had three turnovers, they did nudge ahead,

1176
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 2: and overall yards per play, Louisville just could not get

1177
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:44,319
Speaker 2: Virginia off the field nine for twenty one and third

1178
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:47,480
Speaker 2: and fourth down attempts by Virginia, and Boston College is

1179
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:49,919
Speaker 2: nineteenth in the country in third down conversion. So I'm

1180
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 2: with you here. I am with you on Boston College.

1181
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:54,719
Speaker 2: I just a little hesan, like, where is it that

1182
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 2: there's been some steam stop Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We're seeing

1183
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 2: steam go in the wrong direction and then the game

1184
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 2: plays out another way. So I'm resided to setting my

1185
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 2: line watcher up and our Action Labs tools seeing if

1186
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:09,080
Speaker 2: this thing goes back to a flat seven. If it does,

1187
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 2: I'm going to join. You might go to eight, but

1188
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to jump in on Boston College with you, all.

1189
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,800
Speaker 1: Right, going to some late night action out on the

1190
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:22,120
Speaker 1: West coast, where the World Series will also kick off.

1191
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 1: We have Rutgers traveling across the country on a short

1192
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 1: week to take on USC USC thirteen and a half

1193
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 1: point favorite. Where's Rutgers at? Mentally, I don't know where's

1194
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 1: USC at? I mean USC's coming across the country too

1195
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 1: on a sure week. For what it's worth, they've blown

1196
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:46,479
Speaker 1: back to back fourteen point leads one to Penn State

1197
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: and then last week against Maryland missed a got a

1198
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 1: field goal block that would have essentially sealed that game. Look,

1199
00:57:56,320 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 1: Rutgers has been a mess of late. They've had injuries

1200
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 1: on the defensive end. I mean their linebackers have been

1201
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 1: that's been the problem on their defense. I mean their

1202
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 1: linebackers have been so bad. They missed Torrey was hurt pal.

1203
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:10,680
Speaker 1: I don't think it's still one hundred percent. They lost

1204
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 1: Jennings to the NFL, and their linebackers just are out

1205
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 1: of position. Last week, they didn't they didn't have their

1206
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:18,440
Speaker 1: edge rushers, two of their edge rushers, Bailey and Lewis.

1207
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:21,160
Speaker 1: What do they try to do instead? They just tried

1208
00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 1: to blitz UCLA just incessantly. It wasn't working. Their linebackers

1209
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 1: were just getting picked on. The UCLA was just throwing

1210
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 1: to the running back, was just wide opening the flat

1211
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 1: all game. I mean, it was bad and there was

1212
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 1: no adjustments made. I don't know what this Rutgers defense

1213
00:58:38,680 --> 00:58:42,600
Speaker 1: is doing of late. The way to attack this USC

1214
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 1: defense is. You know, they're doing a good job of

1215
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 1: preventing exposive passing plays. You want to attack them, You

1216
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:49,600
Speaker 1: can still attack them through the air, though, just with

1217
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 1: an efficient passing attack. Does do you trust Rutgers to

1218
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 1: do that with the Greek water pistol? I'm not sure

1219
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 1: this is This is a tough game for me to handicap.

1220
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:05,920
Speaker 1: I'm just not sure where either of these teams are

1221
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 1: at mentally. But if the Rutgers defense continues trending the

1222
00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:13,360
Speaker 1: way it doesn't and not making adjustments, they're not doing

1223
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 1: these simple things with their linebackers. Miller, Moss, Lincoln Riley

1224
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:21,960
Speaker 1: should have a field day, maybe a sneaky over USC

1225
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 1: dealing with the injuries of their own on defense. Rutgers

1226
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 1: not a team I generally like to bet overs on.

1227
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 1: But what are you seeing here?

1228
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:33,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, you definitely don't. I think there has to be

1229
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 2: more of a desperation and the team that shows up

1230
00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 2: that plays harder here I believe is going to be

1231
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 2: USC because if you look at their remaining three wins here,

1232
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: we're trying to get the bull season here, and our

1233
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 2: remaining schedule has a pick up against Washington, a short

1234
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 2: dog against Notre Dame, two favorite spots against the UCLA

1235
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 2: and Nebraska, Like, you've got to get this win. This

1236
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:54,600
Speaker 2: win is critical if you want to make the postseason

1237
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:56,560
Speaker 2: and get people off your back. If you're Lincoln Riley,

1238
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 2: and there are a lot of problems with this USC

1239
00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 2: team that you know, the pass rush, mid FBS success

1240
01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:05,280
Speaker 2: against the rush ninety fifth and defensive stuff right, and

1241
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 2: they're coverage grading is top twenty five, but the cap

1242
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 2: against Rutgers is really against the rush. And you have

1243
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 2: to look at the shared data point that these two

1244
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 2: teams have. Rutgers was absolutely dominated by Wisconsin. You look

1245
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 2: at USC, they won by seventeen. They limited Wisconsin and

1246
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 2: passing downs really kind of took them out of the

1247
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 2: game with what they were able to do on third

1248
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 2: and fourth down from a defensive perspective, and the success

1249
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 2: rate dictates that the Trojans could be the be Ruggers

1250
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 2: at their own game by owning the time of possession,

1251
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:34,560
Speaker 2: which is crazy to think of because that's how Rutgers

1252
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 2: wins games. They want to go time of possession. They

1253
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 2: want to go vanilla playbook, and they just want to

1254
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 2: kind of let you bleed out, hang upside down and

1255
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 2: bleed out. USC's twentieth with the rush. They're twenty fourth

1256
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 2: in the pass from a success rate perspective. I expect

1257
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 2: them to own the clock. I expect them to move

1258
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 2: the chains, and I expect them to be better in

1259
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 2: the first half just based on what has happened over

1260
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. USC up twenty one to

1261
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 2: seven on Mayor last week, up twenty to six on

1262
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 2: Penn State a couple weeks ago at halftime. So I'm

1263
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 2: on the USC side. The number is just it's out

1264
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:08,640
Speaker 2: of control, Like it's too high. I think it should

1265
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:11,200
Speaker 2: be eleven. I think fourteen is a little high. But

1266
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 2: USC has played very well in the first half. And

1267
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 2: not only that, Rutgers is kicking off at what eleven pm? Like,

1268
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 2: how do you prepare for that? Like your kids are

1269
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 2: showing up to practice like after dinner this week. I

1270
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 2: don't know how you get them prepared for that, But

1271
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:28,480
Speaker 2: I like USC in the first half here based upon

1272
01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 2: what they did to Maryland and Penn State a couple

1273
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 2: weeks before.

1274
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 1: So what time does that game kick? Eleven Eastern couldn't

1275
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:36,280
Speaker 1: mess with their their rhythm a bit. There's been some

1276
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 1: studies done in that aspect that there's definitely an impact.

1277
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 1: But decent Friday Night Slate. Decent Friday Night Slate headliner

1278
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: certainly is Boise State Younal. They should be a fun game, good.

1279
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 1: I think it's a good live dinning game as well.

1280
01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 1: The winner of that game probably in the driver's seat

1281
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 1: for the Group of five college football playoff Berth. Let's

1282
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 1: be on a second down our favorite overdog.

1283
01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:04,120
Speaker 2: It's called the Overdogs parlay.

1284
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 1: Aka our favorite favorite. I'll kick things off. I'm gonna

1285
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:13,280
Speaker 1: go with the organ Ducks try. I would try to

1286
01:02:13,360 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 1: wait for buy a cheap twenty one. I think that's

1287
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 1: pretty important here. Could be a backdoor Oregon also is,

1288
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:21,160
Speaker 1: you know, kind of taking their foot off the gas

1289
01:02:21,240 --> 01:02:23,240
Speaker 1: and second hands, which does concern me a bit. But

1290
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:26,000
Speaker 1: two of the games are on the road and sleepy environments.

1291
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 1: The other one was the week before Ohio State, which

1292
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:31,360
Speaker 1: makes some sense here. This is you know, a game

1293
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:34,640
Speaker 1: against a ranked opponent at home. I think they might

1294
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:37,760
Speaker 1: be a little bit more incentivized to, you know, keep

1295
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 1: pushing and this ill Illinois defense might wear down and

1296
01:02:40,840 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 1: I don't think they can stop the run. Look, Illinois,

1297
01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 1: you might look at this number and say this is crazy.

1298
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 1: Why are they this ranked Illinois team, Why are they

1299
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:54,400
Speaker 1: catching three touchdowns? Well, I mean number one. I played

1300
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 1: Penn State minus seventeen against Illinois a couple of weeks

1301
01:02:59,800 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 1: back closed eighteen. I mean they should have won that

1302
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 1: game by thirty five. Penn State doesn't miss a couple

1303
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:08,280
Speaker 1: of field goals, they don't get a fourth down. Illinois

1304
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 1: had a one opening drive touchdown and they did nothing

1305
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:13,800
Speaker 1: the rest of the game one hundred and forty total yards.

1306
01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 1: From a success rate perspective, it was the biggest gap

1307
01:03:16,800 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 1: of any game that week. Illinois was dominated in that game,

1308
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:24,440
Speaker 1: and that's against an Penn State offense that just hasn't

1309
01:03:24,480 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 1: shown any ability to generate explosive plays. They still lost

1310
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 1: that game by two touchdowns. They've been very fortunate in

1311
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:36,160
Speaker 1: the turnover department. The defensive line for Illinois is bad.

1312
01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 1: I don't see how they stopped Jordan James. This Oregon

1313
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 1: team is peaking so offense firing, and all cylinders on

1314
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:43,800
Speaker 1: the defensive side of the ball. Secondary playing very well.

1315
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 1: Just the communication on the back end has been superb

1316
01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:51,400
Speaker 1: all season. A little vulnerable against the run. Illinois can't

1317
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 1: run the ball. Offensive line is terrible. You mentioned common

1318
01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:58,440
Speaker 1: opponent before common opponent here Purdue. Illinois was lucky to

1319
01:03:58,560 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 1: beat Purdue at home fifty forty nine. Oregon went to

1320
01:04:01,800 --> 01:04:04,920
Speaker 1: Purdue on a short week after upsetting Loyo State and

1321
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:08,240
Speaker 1: won thirty five nothing. I think this is an Oregon truck.

1322
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:11,240
Speaker 1: Give me the Ducks. Scow Ducks. By the way. Since

1323
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: two thousand and five, in matchups between ranked team's favorites

1324
01:04:14,120 --> 01:04:16,920
Speaker 1: of fourteen or more seventy six fifty three and one

1325
01:04:16,920 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 1: against the spread fifty nine percent, covering by about four

1326
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 1: points per game. When favored by at least three touchdowns

1327
01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 1: sixteen and six against the spread seventy three percent.

1328
01:04:27,080 --> 01:04:29,000
Speaker 2: I like that play. I mean, Luke Altmeyer has not

1329
01:04:29,200 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 2: had contested catches with with Sakari Franklin and Pat Bryant.

1330
01:04:32,560 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 2: That is about to change with this Oregon secondary, which

1331
01:04:35,120 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 2: is crazy good. I'm going to move over to the

1332
01:04:37,480 --> 01:04:41,920
Speaker 2: SEC I can't even begin to figure out how Oklahoma's

1333
01:04:41,920 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 2: going to score any points. So let's go with Old

1334
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:47,040
Speaker 2: Miss as my overdog and listen to this Oklahoma offense.

1335
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 2: Breaking news. By the way, Dion Burks is questionable. This

1336
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:52,560
Speaker 2: Oklahoma offense has just been bad from every single direction.

1337
01:04:53,040 --> 01:04:55,240
Speaker 2: But you know what, that's good. That's a good thing.

1338
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 2: No success rate in passing or rushing lineyards bottom ten,

1339
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:01,600
Speaker 2: near dead last, and big play one hundred and thirtieth

1340
01:05:01,640 --> 01:05:04,000
Speaker 2: in creating a quality drive. They can't even get into

1341
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,920
Speaker 2: scoring position. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is, which, oh,

1342
01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 2: by the way, it's Jackson Arnold because they decide to

1343
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:12,880
Speaker 2: burn his red shirt for no reason whatsoever. Good One

1344
01:05:12,960 --> 01:05:16,120
Speaker 2: of every five passes for Oklahoma this season has been

1345
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 2: a contested catch, and that's going to targets that didn't

1346
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:20,760
Speaker 2: even expect to play this year because they've had so

1347
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:22,640
Speaker 2: many injuries at the wide receiver position.

1348
01:05:23,480 --> 01:05:25,080
Speaker 1: None of it matters. Nobody cares.

1349
01:05:25,400 --> 01:05:27,560
Speaker 2: That's not going to work against an Ole Miss team

1350
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:30,160
Speaker 2: that is not just number one defensively in Havoc and

1351
01:05:30,240 --> 01:05:32,440
Speaker 2: the entire nation, they're also number one in the nation

1352
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 2: in PBUs. The Sooners are so bad on offense, they

1353
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,520
Speaker 2: allow an average of eight tackles for loss per game.

1354
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:40,480
Speaker 1: They've off eaten up here.

1355
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 2: They've fumbled the ball fourteen times. It's nearly the highest

1356
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:48,080
Speaker 2: in all of FBS. But this is not just a

1357
01:05:48,160 --> 01:05:50,400
Speaker 2: pure analytics play. There is something else going on with

1358
01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:52,520
Speaker 2: this Oklahoma team that I think everybody should be paying

1359
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:56,200
Speaker 2: attention to. Offensive coordinator Settle Trail gets fired. Everybody knows

1360
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:58,120
Speaker 2: that by now, and Kevin Johns, who was kind of

1361
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 2: monitoring the quarterbacks, is going to take over the calling.

1362
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 2: So Kevin Johns will be up in the press box. Well,

1363
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:05,400
Speaker 2: people don't realize is that co offensive coordinator Joe John

1364
01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 2: Finley has been the guy on the sideline to organize

1365
01:06:08,880 --> 01:06:11,960
Speaker 2: the units. He's really the one central focused guy that

1366
01:06:12,120 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 2: all the players on offense have looked to for substitutions

1367
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 2: for personnel information. Joe John Finley is leaving the sideline

1368
01:06:19,080 --> 01:06:20,560
Speaker 2: and they're putting him up in the booth. They're going

1369
01:06:20,640 --> 01:06:23,080
Speaker 2: to put him right next to Kevin John's some sort

1370
01:06:23,120 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 2: of tutoring role to learn how to call plays out

1371
01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 2: of a new playbook that Oklahoma's going to have. You're

1372
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:30,760
Speaker 2: going to leave them on the sidelines with no leadership

1373
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 2: from a coaching perspective to get them in the right

1374
01:06:32,840 --> 01:06:34,960
Speaker 2: formations and the right setup and the right players on

1375
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:38,680
Speaker 2: the field. Disaster. So we're gonna take Ale miss the

1376
01:06:38,800 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 2: numbers where it should be. But there's just too many

1377
01:06:41,960 --> 01:06:45,439
Speaker 2: factors here that say Oklahoma's offense is even in more

1378
01:06:45,560 --> 01:06:46,440
Speaker 2: severe trouble here.

1379
01:06:46,960 --> 01:06:51,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to third down, our favorite

1380
01:06:51,040 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 1: money line underdogs. For underdog money line parlay turning good

1381
01:06:56,400 --> 01:06:58,760
Speaker 1: weekends into great weekends.

1382
01:06:59,400 --> 01:07:01,920
Speaker 3: It's time for the money line parlay.

1383
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 1: Hit two straight, came crashing down last week one oh

1384
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 1: and too. Let's get back on track here. I'll kick

1385
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:10,320
Speaker 1: things off. I'm gonna go with Michigan State. I like

1386
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 1: them against the spread as well. I can't believe this.

1387
01:07:12,360 --> 01:07:14,840
Speaker 1: Before the year ad of this spread around twenty, I

1388
01:07:15,000 --> 01:07:18,240
Speaker 1: now have Michigan is an under a three point favor

1389
01:07:19,200 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 1: I have Michigan State power rated slightly higher than Michigan.

1390
01:07:23,560 --> 01:07:24,920
Speaker 1: I just don't know how many more weeks we need

1391
01:07:24,960 --> 01:07:27,240
Speaker 1: to see we need to see Michigan stinks people. I

1392
01:07:27,280 --> 01:07:28,800
Speaker 1: don't know how many more times I have to say it.

1393
01:07:29,520 --> 01:07:31,800
Speaker 1: I mean, they're averaging one hundred and twenty eight pass

1394
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:35,600
Speaker 1: yards per game. The only team's averaging less New Mexico State,

1395
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:39,960
Speaker 1: ul Monroe air Force and Army. What is only air

1396
01:07:40,000 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 1: force in kenisil averaging less the Michigan's five point four

1397
01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:44,320
Speaker 1: yards per ten? What does Michigan need to do? They

1398
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:47,120
Speaker 1: need to run the ball. What is Michigan State strength

1399
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:50,160
Speaker 1: run defense? The reason I was on them against Iowa

1400
01:07:50,520 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 1: last week top thirty rush success rate. They have some

1401
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:58,600
Speaker 1: issues defending explosive passes woop. Just like Iowa, Michigan has

1402
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:03,400
Speaker 1: no explosiveness in their passing attack, none whatsoever. I know

1403
01:08:03,520 --> 01:08:05,480
Speaker 1: that you know this is not like a by Losai.

1404
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 1: Because Michigan lost last week Michigan State upset Iowa, I

1405
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:12,600
Speaker 1: don't care. I also think Jonathan Smith has been a

1406
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:16,280
Speaker 1: wizard in the scripted portions of games. Can get them

1407
01:08:16,720 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 1: a couple scores or even just a touchdown early. That's

1408
01:08:19,840 --> 01:08:21,880
Speaker 1: huge in this game against Michigan. That could be all

1409
01:08:21,960 --> 01:08:23,960
Speaker 1: the difference in a game with a super low total.

1410
01:08:24,080 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 1: By the way, Jonathan's fit sixteen and seven against the

1411
01:08:26,200 --> 01:08:28,719
Speaker 1: spread sixty nine point six percent as a road underdog

1412
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:30,719
Speaker 1: of more than a field go in his career, covered

1413
01:08:30,720 --> 01:08:33,479
Speaker 1: by about a touchdown per game. Both these teams came

1414
01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:36,519
Speaker 1: off of bye last week, and that was important because

1415
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:40,120
Speaker 1: they had a lot of turnover, staff turnover, roster turnover.

1416
01:08:40,320 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 1: While one of the teams look like they fixed a

1417
01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 1: lot of issues and used the buy to actually do something,

1418
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:48,160
Speaker 1: the other didn't. Michigan is a mess right now. Huge

1419
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:51,080
Speaker 1: coaching advantage for Michigan State. They have the better quarterback.

1420
01:08:51,200 --> 01:08:52,640
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be tuttle Gun who knows it

1421
01:08:52,720 --> 01:08:54,640
Speaker 1: even going to be under a center for Michigan. They

1422
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:58,040
Speaker 1: have an identity crisis. Michigan State, I'm sure had this

1423
01:08:58,120 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 1: game circled as well. They got embarrassed in their own

1424
01:09:00,200 --> 01:09:02,599
Speaker 1: field to the eventual national champs last year. I think,

1425
01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:06,639
Speaker 1: what forty nine nothing? So yeah, give me Michigan State.

1426
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:09,760
Speaker 1: I think the Michigan misery continues. This team is lost

1427
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:12,840
Speaker 1: right now. Defending national champs now suffer the third loss

1428
01:09:12,840 --> 01:09:14,720
Speaker 1: of the season. They're done. Their season's over. There's no

1429
01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 1: Big Ten Championship, there's no College Baball playoffs. They're out

1430
01:09:17,360 --> 01:09:19,000
Speaker 1: of everything. I like Michigan State.

1431
01:09:19,400 --> 01:09:21,880
Speaker 2: I'm going to stay in the Big Ten. I saw

1432
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:23,720
Speaker 2: this number all week. I was like, no, can't do it,

1433
01:09:23,800 --> 01:09:25,040
Speaker 2: but we're going to have to do it. And that's

1434
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:27,760
Speaker 2: going to be Wisconsin hosting Penn State, and boy, if

1435
01:09:27,760 --> 01:09:29,880
Speaker 2: Wisconsin pulls this off, I've got some answering to do

1436
01:09:29,960 --> 01:09:32,599
Speaker 2: on the new BCS next week. It's a great situation

1437
01:09:32,720 --> 01:09:35,559
Speaker 2: spot for the Badgers here. Penn State has Ohio State

1438
01:09:35,600 --> 01:09:37,360
Speaker 2: on deck, and you have to think that that might

1439
01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:39,960
Speaker 2: already be in the mind of James Franklin. Not sure

1440
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:41,720
Speaker 2: if that's in the mind of his coordinators, but Penn

1441
01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:44,360
Speaker 2: State has not won this game in Camp Randle by

1442
01:09:44,439 --> 01:09:46,479
Speaker 2: more than a TV since two thousand and seven. This

1443
01:09:46,520 --> 01:09:48,880
Speaker 2: has not been a great place for the Nidney Lions

1444
01:09:48,920 --> 01:09:51,519
Speaker 2: to go and play. Lots of noise around the program

1445
01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:56,000
Speaker 2: this week, James Franklin essentially controlling media questions like he's

1446
01:09:56,080 --> 01:09:59,200
Speaker 2: the People's Republic of China. Here's the media really coming

1447
01:09:59,280 --> 01:10:01,920
Speaker 2: down hard on a lot of noise surrounding this Penn

1448
01:10:01,960 --> 01:10:04,080
Speaker 2: State team as they're about to travel to Wisconsin and

1449
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 2: then play biggest game of their season next week against

1450
01:10:07,120 --> 01:10:09,080
Speaker 2: Ohio State. And I mean that talks to their strength

1451
01:10:09,120 --> 01:10:10,720
Speaker 2: of schedule, which has been really poor, I think in

1452
01:10:10,760 --> 01:10:13,800
Speaker 2: the seventies right now, So there have been a number

1453
01:10:13,840 --> 01:10:17,680
Speaker 2: of instances of them stumbling before Penn State. I'm going

1454
01:10:17,760 --> 01:10:19,559
Speaker 2: to throw you mass out from last year, but five

1455
01:10:19,640 --> 01:10:22,040
Speaker 2: and seven. Illinois won this game in twenty twenty two,

1456
01:10:22,760 --> 01:10:25,519
Speaker 2: Indiana won this game in twenty twenty with Michael Pennix

1457
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:28,200
Speaker 2: thirty six to thirty five. And Indiana nearly won this

1458
01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:32,320
Speaker 2: game against Penn State before Ohio State in twenty nineteen.

1459
01:10:32,479 --> 01:10:36,479
Speaker 2: So there's been some consistent issues and historically for Penn

1460
01:10:36,520 --> 01:10:38,960
Speaker 2: State in this position. But you really have to ask

1461
01:10:39,120 --> 01:10:41,880
Speaker 2: what is going on with this Wisconsin offense over the

1462
01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:44,600
Speaker 2: last two games. I get who their opponents are with

1463
01:10:44,720 --> 01:10:47,560
Speaker 2: Rutgers in Northwestern and their defenses, but three hundred and

1464
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:50,519
Speaker 2: twenty four yards on the ground, five point two yards

1465
01:10:50,560 --> 01:10:55,920
Speaker 2: after first contact against Rutgers for Tawee Walker, who absolutely

1466
01:10:56,000 --> 01:10:58,920
Speaker 2: has taken off over the last two games, and you say, well,

1467
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:01,120
Speaker 2: it's just the defense that he face. We have not

1468
01:11:01,360 --> 01:11:04,160
Speaker 2: seen his yards after first contact be this high. Since

1469
01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:07,559
Speaker 2: Penn State has looked elite against every run concept except

1470
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:10,040
Speaker 2: for one one of them. They've been mid FBS against,

1471
01:11:10,400 --> 01:11:12,680
Speaker 2: and that's outside zone, which is exactly what Wisconsin has

1472
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:16,360
Speaker 2: come at them. Wisconsin outside zone Tallwie Walker. It looks

1473
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:17,840
Speaker 2: like it's going to be a problem for Penn State

1474
01:11:17,880 --> 01:11:20,439
Speaker 2: and a'll overlook spot when the ninte Allians face Ohio

1475
01:11:20,479 --> 01:11:23,479
Speaker 2: State next week. This time of year, you might hear

1476
01:11:23,560 --> 01:11:26,840
Speaker 2: the term Wisconsin a swing state. Doesn't have to be

1477
01:11:26,880 --> 01:11:30,000
Speaker 2: a political connotation. They swing in Wisconsin.

1478
01:11:30,600 --> 01:11:32,240
Speaker 1: They know how to have a good time, you know

1479
01:11:32,280 --> 01:11:35,760
Speaker 1: what I mean, They know how to have a good

1480
01:11:35,880 --> 01:11:39,559
Speaker 1: time in Wisconsin, as they say, a non denominational good time.

1481
01:11:40,040 --> 01:11:40,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1482
01:11:40,200 --> 01:11:42,280
Speaker 1: I'm having trouble with this handicap of this one. I mean,

1483
01:11:42,280 --> 01:11:43,760
Speaker 1: it's a weird spot there. They are off a vibe,

1484
01:11:43,760 --> 01:11:45,519
Speaker 1: but they have Ohio State on deck. I think Penn

1485
01:11:45,520 --> 01:11:47,280
Speaker 1: State should be able to run on Wisconsin. That's the

1486
01:11:47,360 --> 01:11:50,479
Speaker 1: weakness of their defense. Their defensive line isn't great. The

1487
01:11:50,520 --> 01:11:53,200
Speaker 1: batters aren't allowing any pass explosives. Penn State doesn't have

1488
01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:55,800
Speaker 1: any pass exposed to us right now. Can they just

1489
01:11:56,200 --> 01:11:57,920
Speaker 1: take away Tyler Warren? I think they have a couple

1490
01:11:57,920 --> 01:11:59,800
Speaker 1: of guys to throw at them. The problem is I

1491
01:11:59,840 --> 01:12:01,880
Speaker 1: think this number, you know, I don't mind taking a

1492
01:12:01,920 --> 01:12:04,080
Speaker 1: shot on the money line because of the uncertainty with Wisconsin.

1493
01:12:04,160 --> 01:12:06,320
Speaker 1: Are they as much better as it with the quality

1494
01:12:06,360 --> 01:12:09,519
Speaker 1: of competition, You do have a really good home field environment.

1495
01:12:09,560 --> 01:12:12,599
Speaker 1: By the way since two thousand, Wisconsin is the most

1496
01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:17,000
Speaker 1: profitable home dog of any college football team minimum ten games.

1497
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:18,880
Speaker 1: I think they're ten and three or ten and four

1498
01:12:18,920 --> 01:12:21,320
Speaker 1: against the spread. The problem is I just can't get

1499
01:12:21,320 --> 01:12:23,679
Speaker 1: to the number. I mean, Alabama was what laying sixteen

1500
01:12:23,720 --> 01:12:26,000
Speaker 1: and a half, and that was with Van Dyke. Here,

1501
01:12:26,800 --> 01:12:28,240
Speaker 1: Penn State is under a touchdown.

1502
01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:30,200
Speaker 2: You're right, I make it eleven. You're right.

1503
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:32,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm at like eight and a half. Nine, But

1504
01:12:32,760 --> 01:12:35,200
Speaker 1: there's some potential pass here for Wisconsin. Should be an

1505
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:39,120
Speaker 1: intriguing game. All right, let's move on to fourth down.

1506
01:12:39,160 --> 01:12:40,720
Speaker 1: We're going to go for our favorite bet.

1507
01:12:41,240 --> 01:12:43,519
Speaker 2: God damn, this is fun.

1508
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:45,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the mean green down in Denton

1509
01:12:46,960 --> 01:12:53,440
Speaker 1: against Tulane. Catching anything over a touchdown is fine here Tulane,

1510
01:12:53,640 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 1: you know they have been impressive. I think Mkay Hughes

1511
01:12:55,800 --> 01:12:59,160
Speaker 1: will get his on the ground. North Texas run defense

1512
01:12:59,280 --> 01:13:02,680
Speaker 1: is not good, but I think that North Texas can

1513
01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:06,519
Speaker 1: keep up. And this is you know, Taine really hasn't

1514
01:13:06,560 --> 01:13:09,519
Speaker 1: faced many passing attacks that can test them for sixty minutes.

1515
01:13:10,520 --> 01:13:13,320
Speaker 1: Louisiana was one and Louisiana out played them. They just

1516
01:13:13,360 --> 01:13:14,960
Speaker 1: gave up a kicker during touchdown and threw a pick

1517
01:13:15,000 --> 01:13:17,000
Speaker 1: six at the end of the first half. But they

1518
01:13:17,040 --> 01:13:19,040
Speaker 1: all played them statistically, were able to move the ball,

1519
01:13:19,439 --> 01:13:22,080
Speaker 1: put up thirty three points. We saw Kansas State even

1520
01:13:22,120 --> 01:13:24,720
Speaker 1: when Avery Johnson was struggling to throw the ball. You know,

1521
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:27,639
Speaker 1: they put up thirty four on two lane. That Oklahoma game,

1522
01:13:29,080 --> 01:13:32,080
Speaker 1: Oklahoma put up thirty plus. But Oklahoma's offense, we've seen

1523
01:13:32,120 --> 01:13:35,000
Speaker 1: how bad they are. This North Texas offense is legit.

1524
01:13:35,720 --> 01:13:41,080
Speaker 1: Chandler Morris is running that air raid with just extreme

1525
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:43,160
Speaker 1: effectiveness ra averaging. They're one of four teams in the

1526
01:13:43,160 --> 01:13:45,360
Speaker 1: country averaging over three hundred and sixty passing yards per game,

1527
01:13:45,479 --> 01:13:49,280
Speaker 1: along with Ole, Miss, Miami and Syracuse. And I mean

1528
01:13:49,360 --> 01:13:55,320
Speaker 1: two lane. Look last week, talk about a box score fraud.

1529
01:13:55,640 --> 01:13:59,080
Speaker 1: They beat Rice by two touchdowns. They needed fourteen. They

1530
01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:01,280
Speaker 1: needed to score fourteen unanswered in the fourth quarter to

1531
01:14:01,320 --> 01:14:04,160
Speaker 1: pull away. They were out gained by Rice. They had

1532
01:14:04,160 --> 01:14:06,760
Speaker 1: a plus five turnover margin in that game and it

1533
01:14:06,880 --> 01:14:09,280
Speaker 1: was tied in the fourth quarter. On the season, two

1534
01:14:09,360 --> 01:14:13,040
Speaker 1: Lane plus eleven in turnovers, North Texas minus four. Don't

1535
01:14:13,080 --> 01:14:16,640
Speaker 1: be surprised that there's some turnover regression there. I like

1536
01:14:17,800 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 1: the mean green at home head coach Eric Morris covered

1537
01:14:21,320 --> 01:14:27,320
Speaker 1: six straight at home since his debut against FBS FOS.

1538
01:14:27,600 --> 01:14:29,960
Speaker 1: I make this like around five, so give me North Texas.

1539
01:14:30,160 --> 01:14:32,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you want to have a put that on

1540
01:14:32,200 --> 01:14:33,360
Speaker 2: the board. I don't know if we just take the

1541
01:14:33,680 --> 01:14:35,320
Speaker 2: points or if we just talk about it, but put

1542
01:14:35,360 --> 01:14:36,720
Speaker 2: it on the board. As they are in the round

1543
01:14:36,800 --> 01:14:39,280
Speaker 2: robin video that'll be out on YouTube. Make sure and

1544
01:14:39,360 --> 01:14:42,400
Speaker 2: subscribe to our channel. If I do not get Stucky

1545
01:14:42,479 --> 01:14:43,960
Speaker 2: to back me on this one, I don't know what

1546
01:14:44,040 --> 01:14:46,760
Speaker 2: we're gonna do because I am fading BYU going down

1547
01:14:46,840 --> 01:14:51,000
Speaker 2: to the bounce house against UCF. Listen, Jacurry, already on

1548
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:51,280
Speaker 2: the board.

1549
01:14:51,280 --> 01:14:51,880
Speaker 1: I bet this earlier.

1550
01:14:51,960 --> 01:14:55,400
Speaker 2: It's already on the board. All right, here we go. So, yes,

1551
01:14:55,479 --> 01:14:58,080
Speaker 2: we're back on Central Florida. Then they win the big twelve, No,

1552
01:14:58,200 --> 01:14:59,960
Speaker 2: but we are back on betting them. Jacurrery Brown is

1553
01:15:00,120 --> 01:15:03,120
Speaker 2: taken over Gus Malazon's offense and you can see just

1554
01:15:03,280 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 2: a clear difference. So I mean kJ Jefferson was a

1555
01:15:06,200 --> 01:15:09,960
Speaker 2: part of this offensive attack that you know got into

1556
01:15:10,000 --> 01:15:12,599
Speaker 2: the top five territory as far as rushing success rate goes,

1557
01:15:13,160 --> 01:15:15,400
Speaker 2: But at some point kJ stopped playing in it. He

1558
01:15:15,560 --> 01:15:18,960
Speaker 2: was a statue he wasn't finishing plays. The zone read

1559
01:15:19,120 --> 01:15:23,479
Speaker 2: was with RJ. Harvey was completely detectable because kJ did

1560
01:15:23,560 --> 01:15:27,280
Speaker 2: not finish anything about the play, simply would show handoff

1561
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:29,080
Speaker 2: and hand it off and wouldn't move and you didn't

1562
01:15:29,120 --> 01:15:32,639
Speaker 2: fake out anybody at the edge position. And UCF really

1563
01:15:32,720 --> 01:15:35,800
Speaker 2: struggled on offense. Ja Curry Brown, who can't throw the

1564
01:15:35,880 --> 01:15:39,240
Speaker 2: ball but it doesn't matter, is running that inside zone

1565
01:15:39,280 --> 01:15:41,920
Speaker 2: raad with RJ. Harvey to a t It looks great.

1566
01:15:42,160 --> 01:15:43,200
Speaker 2: Ja Curry Brown himself.

1567
01:15:43,560 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 1: By the way, we saw a close a less explosive

1568
01:15:47,439 --> 01:15:53,439
Speaker 1: version last week from a quarterback perspective with Wrangell and

1569
01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:57,599
Speaker 1: Oli Gordon before they both got hurt. We're running wild

1570
01:15:58,120 --> 01:16:00,120
Speaker 1: all over this PYA defensive struggles a set he had

1571
01:16:00,120 --> 01:16:02,920
Speaker 1: struggles with mobile quarterbacks yep, yeah.

1572
01:16:03,080 --> 01:16:06,760
Speaker 2: And now here we have Brown and RJ. Harvey last

1573
01:16:06,800 --> 01:16:10,160
Speaker 2: week going nuts on a defense we completely respect, which

1574
01:16:10,240 --> 01:16:13,040
Speaker 2: is Iowa State. Last week, Brown himself as a quarterback

1575
01:16:13,120 --> 01:16:15,920
Speaker 2: thirteen carries one hundred and fifty four yards. One hundred

1576
01:16:15,920 --> 01:16:17,559
Speaker 2: and twenty eight of that was off of his own read.

1577
01:16:17,960 --> 01:16:22,360
Speaker 2: Two explosive runs against the Cyclones UCFS offense, which is

1578
01:16:22,400 --> 01:16:24,519
Speaker 2: one of the top rushing offenses in the nation from

1579
01:16:24,560 --> 01:16:27,960
Speaker 2: a lineyards and a rushing success perspective is back and

1580
01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:31,000
Speaker 2: they are re energized by some quarterback that can actually

1581
01:16:31,120 --> 01:16:34,240
Speaker 2: take it to the house. BYU's defense, man, if we've

1582
01:16:34,240 --> 01:16:36,960
Speaker 2: been waiting to pounce on these guys, Bi's defense eighty

1583
01:16:37,000 --> 01:16:38,960
Speaker 2: fourth in defensive line yards, one hundred and fifth in

1584
01:16:39,000 --> 01:16:41,600
Speaker 2: defensive stuff rates, You're going to see RJ. Harvey and

1585
01:16:41,640 --> 01:16:44,479
Speaker 2: jo Curry Brown flying down the sidelines after running inside

1586
01:16:44,520 --> 01:16:47,879
Speaker 2: Zone Reid. So the BYU offense, you have to ask yourself,

1587
01:16:48,080 --> 01:16:49,519
Speaker 2: are they going to be able to step back and

1588
01:16:49,640 --> 01:16:51,240
Speaker 2: do what Jake rhetz laugh has done. Now, I know

1589
01:16:51,320 --> 01:16:54,160
Speaker 2: everybody sees the sixteen to seven TD to I int ratio,

1590
01:16:54,360 --> 01:16:56,200
Speaker 2: he has not been as great as what his numbers say.

1591
01:16:56,600 --> 01:16:59,400
Speaker 2: Reetzlof has two hundred and twenty four dropbacks this season.

1592
01:16:59,640 --> 01:17:01,880
Speaker 2: He's been great against a lot of coverage looks. But

1593
01:17:01,960 --> 01:17:04,000
Speaker 2: out of two hundred and twenty four dropbacks this season,

1594
01:17:04,240 --> 01:17:07,120
Speaker 2: he's seen cover three one hundred and seven times. Is

1595
01:17:07,160 --> 01:17:09,400
Speaker 2: a forty three percent success rate that should be like

1596
01:17:09,479 --> 01:17:12,639
Speaker 2: fifty two. He has a negative EPA per pass that's

1597
01:17:12,720 --> 01:17:14,800
Speaker 2: really bad, and he has a nine point three percent

1598
01:17:14,960 --> 01:17:18,360
Speaker 2: negative play rate, which is monstrous.

1599
01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:19,720
Speaker 1: And he's gonna have to throw because UCF is good

1600
01:17:19,760 --> 01:17:20,120
Speaker 1: run day.

1601
01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:22,960
Speaker 2: So yes, we're back on our knights. Bullshit, let's go

1602
01:17:24,040 --> 01:17:26,680
Speaker 2: BYU is going down. Let's quit this playoff talk. Get

1603
01:17:26,720 --> 01:17:28,760
Speaker 2: him out of Brett's bracket. Wherever they're at, get him out.

1604
01:17:29,160 --> 01:17:32,200
Speaker 1: I agree. Not only has rets Laft been lucky, their

1605
01:17:32,240 --> 01:17:34,120
Speaker 1: whole team has been lucky. I mean, they're three oh

1606
01:17:34,120 --> 01:17:35,960
Speaker 1: one possion games. They should have lost last week if

1607
01:17:36,080 --> 01:17:38,880
Speaker 1: Gordon and Wrangle don't get hurt. Three oh one possession games.

1608
01:17:39,240 --> 01:17:41,320
Speaker 1: But how about their blowout wins. They blew out Kansas

1609
01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:44,720
Speaker 1: State in Arizona by a combined fifty two points. They

1610
01:17:44,760 --> 01:17:47,640
Speaker 1: were out gained six fifty six to six thirty in

1611
01:17:47,640 --> 01:17:50,080
Speaker 1: those games. Well, how do they win plus six turnover margin?

1612
01:17:50,520 --> 01:17:52,559
Speaker 1: Arizona and Kansas Tate went one of seven on fourth

1613
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:56,120
Speaker 1: down and they had multiple non offensive scores. Just not sustainable.

1614
01:17:56,640 --> 01:17:59,479
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I like this new UCF offense with Brown

1615
01:17:59,840 --> 01:18:02,120
Speaker 1: and UCF at home and the bounce house. They didn't

1616
01:18:02,200 --> 01:18:04,360
Speaker 1: quit nine and three against the spread at home against

1617
01:18:04,439 --> 01:18:07,080
Speaker 1: ranked teams since two thousand and five, seven and zero

1618
01:18:07,520 --> 01:18:10,400
Speaker 1: when there's a single digit spread, and for what it's

1619
01:18:10,439 --> 01:18:12,599
Speaker 1: worth We were questioning where UCF is at, and that's

1620
01:18:12,640 --> 01:18:14,720
Speaker 1: because of the quarterback. I don't know why they were

1621
01:18:14,760 --> 01:18:19,080
Speaker 1: starting the freshman, but they had some disappointing performances. But Colorado,

1622
01:18:19,840 --> 01:18:23,559
Speaker 1: Florida and Cincinnati, those of aged pretty well. Those teams

1623
01:18:23,600 --> 01:18:26,840
Speaker 1: are all good frending up. So I agree with you.

1624
01:18:27,120 --> 01:18:30,360
Speaker 1: It's on the board as an agree, all right, before

1625
01:18:30,439 --> 01:18:33,600
Speaker 1: we sign off the board, no head to heads this

1626
01:18:33,680 --> 01:18:35,840
Speaker 1: week again, I'm two and one head to heads. No

1627
01:18:36,000 --> 01:18:39,360
Speaker 1: head to heads, although we're Washington, Indiana, which is a

1628
01:18:39,400 --> 01:18:42,599
Speaker 1: different numbers. Agree. We're twelve and six on the agrees

1629
01:18:42,680 --> 01:18:44,640
Speaker 1: this year. He agrees. This week we got six of

1630
01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:51,640
Speaker 1: them North Texas, UCF, BG, Cincy, Rice, An, Akron and

1631
01:18:51,720 --> 01:18:54,240
Speaker 1: the Trash which is seven and three on their eight

1632
01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:58,200
Speaker 1: and three. They include Collins, Kent State, Akron, and Rice.

1633
01:18:58,880 --> 01:19:01,560
Speaker 1: Thanks to Colin for joining me, as always, thanks to

1634
01:19:01,680 --> 01:19:03,479
Speaker 1: our producer mad Mitchell in the back end. Most poorly,

1635
01:19:03,520 --> 01:19:05,640
Speaker 1: thanks to all of you for tuning in. Make sure

1636
01:19:05,680 --> 01:19:08,080
Speaker 1: you check out the Group of Five guys. Their episode

1637
01:19:08,200 --> 01:19:11,599
Speaker 1: is out now. We'll be back live show ten thirty

1638
01:19:11,640 --> 01:19:15,040
Speaker 1: am Eastern Saturday. Voicemail nine to five to nine. Bad

1639
01:19:15,080 --> 01:19:17,160
Speaker 1: beat for the recap episode, which will be out Monday morning.

1640
01:19:17,320 --> 01:19:20,240
Speaker 1: New BCS comes out early every week as well. Make

1641
01:19:20,280 --> 01:19:22,360
Speaker 1: sure you check out those episodes. Have some fun there.

1642
01:19:23,240 --> 01:19:25,160
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1643
01:19:25,160 --> 01:19:26,960
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1644
01:19:27,000 --> 01:19:29,559
Speaker 1: want really helps us out. I think this is an

1645
01:19:29,600 --> 01:19:31,560
Speaker 1: underrated slate. I'm looking forward to it. Good luck on

1646
01:19:31,560 --> 01:19:34,040
Speaker 1: all of your wagers. We'll catch you on Saturday morning. Cheers.

1647
01:19:34,360 --> 01:19:46,680
Speaker 2: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1648
01:19:47,120 --> 01:19:49,880
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