1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money, Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Tiffany shares surging the most on record, 8 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 1: more than thirty percent, on the heels of this bid 9 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: by Louis Vutan's parent company for fourteen and a half 10 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: billion dollars. A question is who are the other potential 11 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: suitors that could step up to buy Tiffany or is 12 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 1: it just going to be on LVMHU to raise their bid. 13 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: Kim Fassine is joining us now. He's a Bloomberg News 14 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: US luxury reporter. I want to start with the price tag. 15 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: What is the implied path forward by the premium that 16 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: we're seeing baked into Tiffany shares currently at one thirty 17 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: dollars plus versus the one share price that the fourteen 18 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: and a half billion dollars tag would imply. Right, So 19 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 1: it's a fourteen and a half billion dollar proposal from LVMH. 20 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: That's one twenties share and um some analysts are speculating 21 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: that they might have to go up to as much 22 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: as one sixty and uh. They're also speculating that Tiffany 23 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: could attract bids for other suitors. Now, so there's companies 24 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: that have been mentioned, our Richment, which owns Cartier and Caring, 25 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: which is LVMH's biggest fashion rival that owns it owns 26 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: brands like Gucci and Salt Laurent. So can what's the 27 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: strategy for LVMH and perhaps other suitors to uh, you know, 28 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: go after Tiffany? What are they looking for? Tiffany makes 29 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: a lot of sense for l v m H because 30 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:44,680 Speaker 1: it fills a pretty big gap in its portfolio. Of course, 31 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: it has numerous very strong European fashion labels like Louis 32 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: Utton and dir Selene, Fendi and jewelry. It owns Bulgari, 33 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: which is much more high end than Tiffany. But Tiffany 34 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: would be away into the US jewelry market and American shoppers. Uh. Jewelry, 35 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: particularly branded jewelry, has been performing particularly well in luxury lately, 36 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: and it's a relatively small segment of LVM age compared 37 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: with fashion and leather goods. Can I talk about the 38 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 1: timing why now? I'm not sure why now, but the 39 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: tivity has been on the rebound in recent years. So 40 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 1: CEO Alessandro Boliolo has been very busy. He's overhauled Tiffany's 41 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,399 Speaker 1: marketing hoping, hoping to attract younger shoppers. Uh. He entered 42 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: into India after reaching what they called a critical mass 43 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 1: of demand to warrant moving in there. It vowed to 44 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: make its more supply, its supply chain more transparent, and 45 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: hired thousands of new diamond industry workers and executives. Right 46 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: now are super focused on growing the business in China, 47 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: and because by opening their own stores there, rather than 48 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: waiting for tourists to come abroad, you avoid the volatier 49 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: volatility of tourist flows. So let's talk about the luxury 50 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: market in China. Know, China has been an Asian general 51 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: has in a big driver of the growth and luxury 52 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: over the last ten plus years. But so the trade 53 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: uncertainty here can't be good for luxury. So what are 54 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: some of the companies that you covered? What? What are you? 55 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: What are they saying? About trade wars and luxury. Well, 56 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: let's start with Tiffany, which is in an interesting situation. 57 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 1: They make their jewelry here in the US, so they 58 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: do everything backwards. UH them. The big luxury company is 59 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: the American Ones. So let's take UH Tapestry, which owns 60 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: Coach and Kate Spade and Stuart Whitespan. They used to 61 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: make a lot of goods in China fifteen years ago, 62 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: but they've spent the last decade or so diversifying their 63 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: supply chains. So in UH in Coaches case, UM, fewer 64 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: less than five percent of their goods are made in 65 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: China now because they've moved to places like Vietnam and 66 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: the Philippines in India. And this is what we're seeing 67 00:03:54,680 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: across the industry. I'm looking right now LVMH's shares in 68 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: Paris and they're up just slightly or basically flat. I 69 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: find this really interesting. Basically people saying this is a 70 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: good move. Yeah, I think that is people saying it 71 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: is it is a good move because it does fill 72 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: that fill that gap. Tiffany is basically flat in the 73 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: US now. UH. It used to be a more that's 74 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: brand used to be stag here like people didn't it 75 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: was less relevant to two young shoppers, which are so 76 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: so valuable. But these moves lately seem to have to 77 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: have worked. I'm just wondering about sort of whether this 78 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: will also diversify Tiffany outside of the US much more 79 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: because of LVMH's footprint. The push in recent over the 80 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: past year or so has been to physically go to 81 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: where the shoppers are and not rely so much on 82 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: on tourists going abroad, you know, Paris or London or 83 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: New York where their biggest stories. They're spending two hundred 84 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: and fifty million dollars to renov eight their flagship store. 85 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: Uh they're currently they're about to move next door, move 86 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: their whole selling floor next door to their to their 87 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: old place, so they can they can spend all this, 88 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:14,039 Speaker 1: all this time and money because that is the their 89 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: their crown jewel of of their business. Like as much 90 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: as ten percent of their global business comes from this 91 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 1: one store in New York on Fifth Avenue. Kimbasine, thanks 92 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Kimmassin is a luxury reporter 93 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News covering all things luxury. Let's gears and 94 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: talk about the story that really is raising so many eyebrows. 95 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: Microsoft shares jumping to an all time high today, the 96 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 1: battle over cloud services with Amazon dot Com heating up. 97 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: Joining us right now, James Back of Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, 98 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: Microsoft one a Pentagon cloud contract that was much disputed. Uh, 99 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 1: there could still be appeals. But can you give us 100 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: a sense of why this is being viewed by the 101 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: market as such an important development? Well, I think that 102 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: it is a confirmation that Microsoft has essentially made it 103 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: in the infrastructure as a service market. It's long trail 104 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: Amazon dot Com, and now we're starting to really see 105 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,919 Speaker 1: that it has kind of forged its role as the 106 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 1: number two player, and with with the Department of Defense, 107 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: with all of it's you know, very very rigorous security requirements, 108 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 1: very highly sensitive workloads. Going with Microsoft over Amazon, the 109 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: larger player, it's a pretty big statement about where Microsoft 110 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: is in the cloud market. So, James, I know you 111 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: follow these federal contracts and government contracts very closely. Clearly 112 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: a surprise to the marketplace. How about the folks inside 113 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: the Beltway to see, uh, you know, Amazon displaced here. 114 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: How much for a surprise was that? It depends on 115 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: here you're talking to, Uh, the market may be a 116 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: little taken aback by it and some other people who 117 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: may have felt that Amazon was positioned well to win this. 118 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: Certainly we felt that they were the favorite, just given 119 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: that they have experience with the c I A, given 120 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: that they have the largest offering in cloud infrastructure in 121 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: the market. Um, but Microsoft was always a formidable competitor 122 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: in this competition, So it shouldn't come as too much 123 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: as of a surprise that they did end up displacing Amazon, 124 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: or not to say displacing Amazon, but did kind of 125 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: you know, score an upset here. I don't think this 126 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 1: is a stunning of an upset as some may believe 127 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: it to be. So I wonder how much politics really 128 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: played in here because Amazon dot Com Jeff Bezos has 129 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: a stake in the Washington Post, and we know that 130 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: President Trump has been pretty vocal against Jeff Bezos in 131 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: part for that was that a driver behind this decision 132 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: in anyway? I think that papers over It's it's a 133 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: fun story to kind of speculate about whether Trump had 134 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: influence on how this was you know, awarded, but it 135 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: really kind of papers over the capabilities that Microsoft did have. 136 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,239 Speaker 1: They definitely had an offering that was capable of taking 137 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: on this job. Um, And I think it might be 138 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: you know, misleading, or it might be you know, overthinking 139 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: it to say that Trump's uh, you know, his his 140 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: his kind of bad blood he may have with Jeff 141 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: Bezos or the Washington Posted anything to do with how 142 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: this was awarded. You know, the whole you know, acquisition 143 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: bureaucracy and procurement bureaucracy is much larger than anyone president. UM. 144 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: So it'd be hard to see this being something that 145 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: Trump was able to influence, um, really in any big 146 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: meaningful way. So James, does Amazon have any recourse here? 147 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,679 Speaker 1: I seem to have heard that maybe they might be 148 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,599 Speaker 1: able try to stop this. Yeah, they can go to 149 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: and this is just kind of standard procedure for any 150 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 1: large contract. They can go to the Government Accountability Office 151 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: uh and file a bid protest um if they feel 152 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 1: there was any problems with the overall procurement. UM. That 153 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: would delay the program by about a hundred days. And 154 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: that's to say they don't you know, even take this 155 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: maybe to the Court of Federal Claims. Um. There's a 156 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: lot of different options they can pursue now to potentially 157 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 1: you know, change the procurement or try to get this 158 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: back from Microsoft. I want to go back to something 159 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: you said, which is, perhaps people are are making too 160 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,199 Speaker 1: much of this in terms of uh, Amazon dot Com 161 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 1: losing its dominance over the cloud business. Why do you 162 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: think that, Well, the federal market, and this is also 163 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 1: a kind of our our our look at the commercial 164 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: market to cloud is a very big, um growing piece 165 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: of the I T sector. So, you know, one loss 166 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: is about you know, ten billion dollar contract over ten years. 167 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: These are two companies that have both very large cloud businesses. 168 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: One contract isn't going to really change too much for 169 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: any of them, um. But at the same time, it 170 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: is a big statement for Microsoft and where they are 171 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: in the cloud market. For people who some observers who 172 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,199 Speaker 1: may have thought that this was a slam dunk for Amazon. 173 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: I think it's a surprise. But at the same time, 174 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: there's a lot of cloud uh, there's a lot of 175 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 1: I TA modernization that's going to happen in the federal market, 176 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: and it's it's very you know, it's it's not hard 177 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: to see that Amazon and Microsoft, regardless of this contract, 178 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: are going to be a part of that in some way. 179 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: And there's been some pushback within Microsoft employees about that. 180 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: How common is that in terms of well, I mean 181 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: in terms of the I guess doing business with the 182 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: government and you know, with whether it's the Defense Establishment 183 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: or the c I A. Yeah, we saw this with 184 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 1: Google um and it's ultimately Google was in the running 185 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: for JEDI at one point and dropped out because of 186 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: kind of an employee revolt. So it is something that 187 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 1: happens in some cases. The difference here is, you know, 188 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: Microsoft has been with the federal government for a pretty 189 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 1: long time. They've been at d O D for about 190 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 1: three decades. It's hard to imagine that any kind of 191 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 1: big employee revolt is going to take place and is 192 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: going to stop Microsoft from operating in the Defense Department. 193 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 1: James bad thank you so much for joining us. We we 194 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: we really appreciate your insight here. James back covers all 195 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: things in terms of the federal contracts and the government 196 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: and procurements and all that stuff. He does have for 197 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. So really giving Bloomberg clients a real sense 198 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 1: of what it means, what companies are at risk, what 199 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 1: companies are doing, what types of business with the US 200 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: government on days like today, really valuable to get his thoughts. 201 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 1: This is a very big week for interest rates and 202 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: certainly the outlook going forward. The Pleasure Reserve meets Tuesday 203 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: and Wednesday releasing what everyone expects to be a rate cut. 204 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:50,839 Speaker 1: That is not what people are watching for. What they're 205 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: watching for is what they're going to signal in terms 206 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: of whether this is one and hold for the time being, 207 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: or whether they expect to cut rates yet again in 208 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. Join us now. R J. Gallo, senior portfolio 209 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: manager focused on fixed income at Federated Investors Are J 210 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: what are you expecting them to signal on Wednesday in 211 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: terms of future rate cuts? Good morning, UM. I think 212 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,679 Speaker 1: it's important to realize that although you know sort of 213 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: the one and done phrases being talked about, this is 214 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: really the third right. This is the mid cycle adjustment 215 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 1: language which was invoked by Chairman Powell UM around the 216 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: time of the first ease, may in fact be realized 217 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: by what we see now. The other periods of mid 218 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: cycle adjustment have typically entailed more than one ease, oftentimes 219 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: two or three. This looks like the third in a series, 220 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: and our bet here at Federated is that imminent recession 221 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: is not most likely, and the FED may in fact 222 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: layer in its third ease and see what happens next. 223 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: That what happens next is probably a deceleration and economic growth. 224 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 1: We're going to see some data this week on that 225 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: on the GDP front. But the FED, I think, is 226 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: probably a little less eager to signal further easing right away. 227 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: It's becoming states contingent or data dependent in their terminology. Yeah, 228 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: it's interesting r J. You mentioned the data dependency. You know. 229 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: I think if I were to go down to the 230 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 1: f O m C this wee can argue for Hey, 231 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,839 Speaker 1: the data is not supporting this easing environment. I think 232 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: you guys need to sit on the sidelines. Will they 233 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 1: throw me out of the room. UM, I don't know 234 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:18,719 Speaker 1: if they'd throw you out of the room. I'll tell 235 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: you this. I think that the FED, or at least 236 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 1: the core of the FED, the leadership of the FED, 237 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: you know, the the New York FED President, the vice chairman, 238 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: the chairman. UM, they're interested in being forward looking and 239 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 1: proactive at this point in time. UM, they feel as 240 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 1: if the United States is being sort of one of 241 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: the strongest pillars of an otherwise slowing global economy. That 242 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: they can afford to be proactive because the risk of 243 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: being wrong, namely we ease and we shouldn't have doesn't 244 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 1: produce an inflationary spiral. Inflation continues to disappoint. So what's 245 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: the problem with being proactive on growth? That's that's how 246 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 1: I think they think of it. UM. Those out there 247 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: like a Laretta Laretta Master who are arguing but data 248 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: doesn't support it, UM, well, that's the ackward looking data. 249 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: So in a risk management framework, they can afford to 250 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 1: to layer layer in theseasies and see how the market 251 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 1: and the economy response. So what does that mean in 252 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: terms of how you're positioning your portfolio? UM, if you 253 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 1: look at my firm, we have spent years being overweight 254 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: credit and expecting FED policy normalization in the form of 255 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 1: higher rates that ultimately occurred. We had a complete flip 256 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: flop on that last element as the FED has has 257 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 1: moved towards easing. As we've been discussing on this call um, 258 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: we anticipated the economic deceleration that would occur and selectively 259 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: have been long duration at various points over the last 260 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: six months. It's been an incremental win. At this point, 261 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: we've shifted closer to neutral on a lot of our variables, 262 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: because I think it's not totally clear that that what's 263 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: going to happen next. If President Trump and President z 264 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: in China actually strike a meaningful truth phase one deal, 265 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: then some of the global deceleration, some of the problem 266 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: with presidential nonresidential investment in the United States make correct, 267 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 1: and we can have a nice soft landing if we 268 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: get that yoke had a little fire. Corporate credit does okay. 269 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: On the other hand, deal hasn't been struck. Global economy 270 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: is slowing. Uh, you can't rule out that recession risk 271 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: is elevated at this point in time. So we're trying 272 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: to be nimble with almost like sort of a neutral 273 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: home base on a lot of variables right now. So 274 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: r J, as it relates to the R word recession, 275 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: what is kind of your call there at federating base 276 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: case we think we can have the the fabled soft landing, 277 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: which you know, which we had in the nineties. For example, 278 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: Chairman Greenspan was successful at finding that after multi phased 279 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: tightening that he oversaw um soft landings prolonged by definition 280 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: the economic expansion, which I think pal is very committed 281 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 1: to do. We think he might be able to stick 282 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: that landing. Let's talk about what a soft landing actually 283 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: looks like. What's the playbook for a soft landing? Does 284 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: it mean just a DECELERA is deceleration that's steady but 285 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: continues with the with the growth or and how long 286 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: can that continue? Well, if you believe the the the 287 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 1: official arbiters of of potential growth, it's somewhere around one 288 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: point eight maybe even one. Right. Um, we think that 289 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: GDP is going to have a one handle this week 290 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 1: when we see the first read on the third quarter 291 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: result here in the United States. A soft landing, in 292 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: my opinion, has to mean that in coming quarters we 293 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: can grow at potential or higher. Why is that a 294 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: soft landing? Because that's after the Fed funds rate was 295 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 1: increased sharply, it was zero not that long ago. That's 296 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 1: after the Fed halted QWI. And what they're doing now 297 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: is not qui. Anybody who thinks it is is apparently 298 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: not aware of Federal reserve history. Uh. And that soft 299 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: landing of a potential or higher growth means corporate assets 300 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: can do okay. I think that we're in an Arab 301 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: diminished returns where bond yields are where stocks are. I 302 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: think investors need to sort of ratchet down return expectations 303 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: because there's not a lot of easy money. In a 304 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 1: soft landing scenario, you don't get a recession, so you 305 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: probably don't get a crash in terms of stocks. I 306 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: hope UM, but it's hard to say that there's a 307 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: lot of a track active undervalued assets right now. R J. Gallo, 308 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us, giving us your 309 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 1: thoughts on the credit markets and the upcoming uh FED 310 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 1: meeting and outcome coming tomorrow Wednesday. R J. Gallo, Senior 311 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: portfolio Manager, fixed to come at Federated Investors Investors joining 312 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: us on the phone from Pittsburgh where Argentina. Over the 313 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 1: weekend we saw a president elect, Alberto Fernandez win the election. 314 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: Mauricio Macrie is out. He was thought to be market friendly. 315 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: Alberto Fernandez not so much. What will the path be 316 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: going forward? Joining us now is Michael Bulliger. He is 317 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: head of Emerging Markets Asset Allocation uh for UBS Global 318 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: Wealth Management, and Michael, I want to just get your 319 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: sense of the outcome of this election. Does not seem 320 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: to be surprising markets all that much. Moves are not 321 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: that severe, But do you have a feeling that perhaps 322 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 1: people are under playing some of the risks that could 323 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:15,880 Speaker 1: potentially cause much steeper losses for deadholders. Yeah, I think 324 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: when it comes to Argentina, I mean the big surprise 325 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 1: happened earlier when MARQUEI lost the primary um a few 326 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: a few weeks back, and now this result actually has 327 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 1: been widely expect expected by the markets and the positioning 328 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 1: has been a justice already. Now for us, the critical 329 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 1: part now is to look forward um. The next few 330 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,199 Speaker 1: weeks will be critical, so people will be watching for 331 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 1: example of what's going to happen on the ethics side 332 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: and the central Bank, which has increased a couple of controls, 333 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: avoid another steep devaluation of the piezo. And then crucially 334 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 1: also what will the new president elect do between now 335 00:18:56,280 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: and it's his integration with regard to which persons will 336 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: you appoint for you know, the cabinet including Ministry of Finance, 337 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 1: central Bank governor, etcetera. And then also we are eagerly 338 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: awaiting more specific guidance on his economic policies for his 339 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: upcoming term. So Michael, for investors in Argentina, you know, 340 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 1: what is the bulk case for being in Argentina now, 341 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 1: it seems like there's just so many unknowns. There's that's true, 342 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: there's really a lot of question marks at this point 343 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: in time. One one clear argument why people might hold 344 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: onto their exposure, and that's also what we, by the 345 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 1: way recommend our clients, is that if you look, for example, 346 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: at the dullity denominated bonds and they offer obviously quite 347 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: a bit of a discount they tried and the trade 348 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 1: in the forties, and so you know, with with Anne 349 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 1: this now and Board being part of this upcoming government, 350 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: the president, he has obviously now incentives to try to 351 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: come up with a you know, as market friendly um 352 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,360 Speaker 1: policy program as possible, and that can also involve that 353 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: maybe the restructuring, if it has to happen, might be 354 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 1: even you know, a bit less market and friendly than 355 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: what one's currently uprising. So Argentina has two hundred and 356 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: eighty two billion dollars of debt outstanding, people concerned uh 357 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: that they will default yet again. They are a serial 358 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,399 Speaker 1: defaulter and this is going to be yet another one. 359 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 1: They already have defaulted on some of it. I guess 360 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 1: the question is what a recovery is going to be 361 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: A number of people have been saying around forty cents 362 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,479 Speaker 1: on the dollar. Seems like that might be the most likely. 363 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: Where do you come in on this? Yeah, I think 364 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: you know, as as said before, there's really a lot 365 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: of unknowns. Um there's a wide range of indications on 366 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: where a possible recovery value could be. But again, just 367 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,880 Speaker 1: to retrate what I said before, I think current prices 368 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 1: do reflect quite a dire outcome on such a restructuring, 369 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: a possible structuring. And you know, we're not advising people 370 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 1: to now buy into Argentine paper, but rather sort of 371 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,640 Speaker 1: holding a market weight to exposure at this point in time, 372 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: So broadening out to Latin American in general, we've seen 373 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: a series of situations that vote to even more unrest, 374 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 1: whether it's Chile, whether it's Ecuador, uh, and the prospect 375 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 1: of yet another default there. What do you make of 376 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 1: all this? Are you recommending people get out of Latin 377 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: American assets? No, that's not what we're recommending. Actually. I mean, 378 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: first of all, it's worth noting that you know, you 379 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 1: mentioned Chile, you mentioned Ecuador, we talked about Argentina. But 380 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: this is not a topic that is specific alone to 381 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: Latin America. You remember the Chile shown in France, You 382 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: remember uh, you know, current protests in Spain, the crisis 383 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 1: in Lebanon um. So this is almost a global phenomenon. 384 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,679 Speaker 1: And you know what many of these protests have in 385 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 1: common is that people point towards, you know, issues of 386 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: inequality te people point to you know, a lack of 387 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: perceived quality of what their government is doing. And you know, 388 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: for us as investors, what we tell people is to 389 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: look at, you know, each each country, each market individually 390 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 1: to assess the likelihood of such an unrest to happen, 391 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: and then also what can the government to to resolve 392 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 1: that situation. Now, looking at a Chile, which has been 393 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: a posted child for liberal policies for economic reform, which 394 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 1: is very strong depth credits fundamentals were not concerned at 395 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: all that you know, for example, the Chilean government or 396 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: some of the Chilean corporates that we cover will see 397 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,239 Speaker 1: issues servicing their depth. So there we see that as 398 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 1: a temporary about of volatility, whereas elsewhere, you know, the 399 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: situation might look more challenging. Michael Baldner, thanks so much 400 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 1: for joining us. Michael's ahead of Emerging Market Asset Allocation 401 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 1: for Ubs Global Wealth Management. Thanks for listening to the 402 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg PL podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 403 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 1: at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 404 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa 405 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 1: Abram Wohits. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abram Woits. One. 406 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide on'm 407 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio