WEBVTT - Apple & Amazon lead Tech Earnings; BarbieMania Continues

0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:03.079
<v Speaker 1>Good morning.

0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:05.400
<v Speaker 2>I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow.

0:00:05.519 --> 0:00:09.120
<v Speaker 3>Here are the stories we're following today, big tech earnings.

0:00:09.160 --> 0:00:11.600
<v Speaker 4>They will once again be the theme for markets this week,

0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:14.920
<v Speaker 4>and the Nasdaq will be in the spotlight after Friday's

0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:17.840
<v Speaker 4>nearly two percent surge, and as we hear from two

0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:22.120
<v Speaker 4>of the biggest tech companies. Bloomberg's John Tucker has a preview.

0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:25.320
<v Speaker 2>Apple and Amazon are both scheduled or report quarterly results

0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:28.800
<v Speaker 2>after the closing bill on Thursday. Investors will be watching

0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:31.760
<v Speaker 2>for more about Apple asking supplies to keep iPhone shipments

0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:35.199
<v Speaker 2>flat year on year. We're also hearing Apple expects revenue

0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:38.879
<v Speaker 2>to grow through price hikes for iPhone Pro models. Apple's

0:00:38.920 --> 0:00:43.080
<v Speaker 2>resilience on Chinese manufacturing also of concern because of souring

0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.960
<v Speaker 2>relations between Washington and Beijing, and investors will likely be

0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:51.239
<v Speaker 2>interested in anything that Apple says about AI. As for Amazon,

0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:54.680
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligences watch to see if strength in streaming and

0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:59.440
<v Speaker 2>advertising will be offset by slowing consumer and enterprise spending. Also,

0:00:59.480 --> 0:01:02.640
<v Speaker 2>anything about online shopping and Amazon's push in the pharmacy

0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:05.640
<v Speaker 2>and grocery will be of interest. In New York. I'm

0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:07.040
<v Speaker 2>John Tucker, Bloomberg debreak.

0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:09.520
<v Speaker 3>All right, John, thanks well. Earnings are also very much

0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.880
<v Speaker 3>in focus overseas, and that has Heinegan investors crying in

0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:15.840
<v Speaker 3>their beer this morning with the detls from Bloomberg's You

0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:17.080
<v Speaker 3>and Pots in London.

0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:18.880
<v Speaker 2>You and good morning, Good.

0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.960
<v Speaker 5>Morning, Karon Nathan. First half operating profits slumping twenty two

0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.480
<v Speaker 5>percent on an adjusted basis. At Heineken, the world's second

0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:28.759
<v Speaker 5>largest brother, reporting beer volumes dropping more than expected after

0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:31.920
<v Speaker 5>its biggest price hikes in a decade. This as it

0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:35.039
<v Speaker 5>struggles to pass on high raw material costs to consumers

0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.240
<v Speaker 5>without driving them to cheaper brands. Hiderking shareholders waking up

0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:40.520
<v Speaker 5>to a nasty hangover this morning, with shares down as

0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.479
<v Speaker 5>much as six and a half percent. More widely, we're

0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:45.959
<v Speaker 5>two thirds of the way through European earning season, and

0:01:45.959 --> 0:01:50.000
<v Speaker 5>according to research from Bloomberg Intelligence, fifty percent of companies

0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:53.320
<v Speaker 5>have so far beaten consensus. In London, I'm une Pots,

0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:54.520
<v Speaker 5>Bloomberg daybreak.

0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:57.960
<v Speaker 4>Okay, ewan, thank you. Staying in Europe, Italy's economy unexpectedly

0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.440
<v Speaker 4>contracted in the second quarters. Domestic product shrank by three

0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.040
<v Speaker 4>tenths of one percent from the previous three months. That's

0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:07.000
<v Speaker 4>much worse than the zero growth analysts surveyed by Bloomberg

0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:07.600
<v Speaker 4>had expected.

0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:10.399
<v Speaker 3>Well Back here in the US, Nathan, the big economic

0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:14.280
<v Speaker 3>event comes on Friday with the July job support. Meantime,

0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:18.120
<v Speaker 3>economic heavyweights are weighing in on where US growth growth

0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:22.520
<v Speaker 3>goes from here. Minneapolis Fed President Neilkashkari says right hikes

0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:26.040
<v Speaker 3>will probably result in job losses and slower growth, and

0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:28.600
<v Speaker 3>that makes him optimistic on the fight against inflation.

0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:29.760
<v Speaker 2>Overall.

0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.440
<v Speaker 6>I think that the inflation outlook is quite positive, that

0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.520
<v Speaker 6>it should be slowly diminishing from here. But again, we've

0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:37.960
<v Speaker 6>just continued to be surprised by the dynamics of this

0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.920
<v Speaker 6>reopening economy, and so we can't prejudge it. We have

0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:42.560
<v Speaker 6>to let the data actually guide us.

0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.880
<v Speaker 3>Minneapolis Fed President neilkash Carey made the comments on Face

0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:49.160
<v Speaker 3>the Nation from CBS Sketch the program every Sunday on

0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:50.679
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Radio Nan Time.

0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:54.280
<v Speaker 4>In Asia, Karen Central Banking dominated the overnight trading session

0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:56.840
<v Speaker 4>thanks to a surprise move from the Bank of Japan.

0:02:57.200 --> 0:02:59.959
<v Speaker 4>The boj has stepped into the bond markets with unscheduled

0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.440
<v Speaker 4>purchases to bring down yields. That's after Japanese yields hit

0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:06.840
<v Speaker 4>their highest level in nine years. Bloomberg's Paul Dobson says,

0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:08.640
<v Speaker 4>the bank is clearly sending a message.

0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:10.720
<v Speaker 7>You know, the BJA is trying to tell us something

0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:12.440
<v Speaker 7>with this move. And what I think it's trying to

0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:15.440
<v Speaker 7>tell us is this doesn't want a kind of you know,

0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:18.959
<v Speaker 7>unseemly dash for the exit here. It doesn't want to

0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.000
<v Speaker 7>see a lot of volatility in the bond market. It

0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.840
<v Speaker 7>doesn't want to see us out one percent yields tomorrow,

0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:26.560
<v Speaker 7>even though it's said that okay, they can go up

0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:27.480
<v Speaker 7>towards that level.

0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.959
<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg's Paul Dobson says there is no clarity as to

0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:33.800
<v Speaker 4>when the bog might intervene again, and the yen has

0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:36.200
<v Speaker 4>weakened on the news that is currently trading at one

0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:38.480
<v Speaker 4>forty two point four to three against the dollar.

0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:42.320
<v Speaker 3>Wellly, economic data from China is also in focus. Nathan

0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:46.320
<v Speaker 3>economic activity loss more steam in July is manufacturing contracted

0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:49.200
<v Speaker 3>in the services sector weekend that has traders expecting more

0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:52.800
<v Speaker 3>stimulus measures from the government. Bloomberg's Rebecca Chewing that Wilkins

0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:53.960
<v Speaker 3>has more from Hong Kong.

0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:58.280
<v Speaker 8>Certainly sort of pessimistic tone in terms of the data itself,

0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.040
<v Speaker 8>but that's quite a contrast with what we've seen in

0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:04.320
<v Speaker 8>the market's response, and market's really betting on the promise

0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:08.080
<v Speaker 8>of policy support here. We still haven't seen many concrete,

0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:12.160
<v Speaker 8>tangible moves. But again, in a way, this sort of

0:04:12.240 --> 0:04:14.720
<v Speaker 8>weak of data that we're seeing coming out of China

0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:19.039
<v Speaker 8>reinforcing the expectations that policy makers will have to take

0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:23.920
<v Speaker 8>more comprehensive actions, particularly after we've seen this sort of duvish,

0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:26.120
<v Speaker 8>this tilt and more duvish tone.

0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:28.960
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's re Becca Chewing Milkins says stocks in China rose

0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:30.880
<v Speaker 3>more than a half of a percent overnight.

0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:33.760
<v Speaker 4>In corporate news, Karen Walmart has paid one point four

0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:36.880
<v Speaker 4>billion dollars to buy Tiger Global Management's remaining stake in

0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.760
<v Speaker 4>Flip cart. The transaction values the Indian e commerce jand

0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.320
<v Speaker 4>at thirty five billion dollars. That's according to a letter

0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:45.359
<v Speaker 4>sent by Tiger to investors that was obtained by Bloomberg News.

0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.040
<v Speaker 3>Well, we're also keeping an Aya Mattel this morning. Nathan

0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:50.200
<v Speaker 3>Barbie once again the number one movie in the country,

0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:53.240
<v Speaker 3>earning another ninety three million dollars in its second weekend.

0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:56.880
<v Speaker 3>Christopher Nolans Oppenheimer remains in second, earning another forty six

0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:58.039
<v Speaker 3>point two million.

0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:01.640
<v Speaker 4>And in political news, Karen Umer President Donald Trumps super

0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:04.520
<v Speaker 4>pac says it's legal bills are piling up. Bloomberg z

0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:06.280
<v Speaker 4>Ed Baxter has the story.

0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:08.280
<v Speaker 9>With a number of charges against Donald Trump and the

0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:12.800
<v Speaker 9>Maral Logo classified information case growing to forty His fundraising

0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:16.320
<v Speaker 9>pack Save America is due to announce today it has

0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:20.120
<v Speaker 9>spent forty point two million dollars on legal costs just

0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:21.680
<v Speaker 9>in the first half of the year.

0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:22.720
<v Speaker 10>The group has.

0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:25.360
<v Speaker 9>Already begun calling back donations it has made to other

0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:28.920
<v Speaker 9>action committees, and there's concern that this will really dent

0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.480
<v Speaker 9>the spending the group can do to try to get

0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:36.000
<v Speaker 9>candidates elected in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.

0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:40.839
<v Speaker 4>Time now to take a look at some of the

0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.440
<v Speaker 4>other stories making news in New York and around the

0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:44.880
<v Speaker 4>world with Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:47.800
<v Speaker 11>Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan rip Currents on New

0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:50.720
<v Speaker 11>York beaches that have claimed the lives of two teenagers

0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:53.640
<v Speaker 11>in the past week. Off Coney Island, a fifteen year

0:05:53.640 --> 0:05:57.159
<v Speaker 11>old boy was discovered late Saturday night after getting caught

0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.960
<v Speaker 11>in a current. Thursday, afternoon while playing with his younger

0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:04.640
<v Speaker 11>brother in an area under red flag warnings. Another massive

0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:08.920
<v Speaker 11>search at Jacob Rhese Beach in Queens on Friday after

0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:12.600
<v Speaker 11>a rip current took under a teenage swimmer, identifying a

0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:17.000
<v Speaker 11>body as nineteen year old Amadu Tim. Hours later, this

0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:18.440
<v Speaker 11>man spotted the body.

0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.120
<v Speaker 12>Just kept seeing like a little shadow of the water

0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:22.320
<v Speaker 12>and we got close up with my flash, lay on

0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:23.000
<v Speaker 12>it and it was him.

0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.359
<v Speaker 11>According to the National Weather Service, rip currents are the

0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:30.440
<v Speaker 11>third leading cause of weather related deaths. Ukraine is apparently

0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:35.960
<v Speaker 11>intensifying its drone strikes on Russian soil, hitting targets in Moscow. Meanwhile,

0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:42.560
<v Speaker 11>Russia backed Ukraine's second largest city, Kerkiev, overnight as heavy

0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:46.640
<v Speaker 11>battles were reported around a score of locations. Kiev says

0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:49.640
<v Speaker 11>Ukraine will begin talks with the United States this week

0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:53.640
<v Speaker 11>about security guarantees the US will make to Ukraine, while

0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:58.080
<v Speaker 11>its application to NATO remains pending. Former US Ambassador to Ukraine,

0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:02.359
<v Speaker 11>Stephen Pfeiffer says the Ukraine wants to join NATO because

0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:04.799
<v Speaker 11>membership comes with military protection.

0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.080
<v Speaker 13>I think there's a belief in Ukraine which is correct

0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:11.320
<v Speaker 13>that if Ukraine were in fact anchored in NATO, the

0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:15.000
<v Speaker 13>Russians would not attack, and so we're looking really, I think,

0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:16.160
<v Speaker 13>beyond this current roar.

0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:19.960
<v Speaker 11>The chief of staff for Ukraine's president also said officials

0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:22.440
<v Speaker 11>from a number of countries are preparing to meet in

0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:25.960
<v Speaker 11>Saudi Arabia to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine that

0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:29.520
<v Speaker 11>would hinge on the departure of all Russian troops. Senate

0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.800
<v Speaker 11>majority the leader, Chuck Schumer, is urging the House to

0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:36.120
<v Speaker 11>include the fendof Fentanyl Act and its Defense bill when

0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:39.560
<v Speaker 11>members return in September, Calling this a breakthrough moment in

0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:42.520
<v Speaker 11>the Fentanel crisis, The Democrat from New York says the

0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.720
<v Speaker 11>act will dramatically cut the amount of fentanyl coming into

0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:47.800
<v Speaker 11>the New York area and the rest of the country.

0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:49.360
<v Speaker 11>The bill would allow.

0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:53.200
<v Speaker 14>The President to declare a state of emergency and put

0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:57.600
<v Speaker 14>tough sanctions on China for sending US the precursor chemicals

0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:01.000
<v Speaker 14>and Mexico for making those chemicals into fentoel.

0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:04.520
<v Speaker 11>The legislation is part of the bipartisan Defense bill passed

0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:07.640
<v Speaker 11>by the Senate last week. Global News twenty four hours

0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:10.480
<v Speaker 11>a day, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists

0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.040
<v Speaker 11>nanalysts in over one hundred and twenty countries.

0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:13.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm Michael Barr.

0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:15.600
<v Speaker 11>This is Bloomberg, Nathan.

0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:16.800
<v Speaker 2>Thank you, Michael.

0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:23.880
<v Speaker 4>Time now for the Bloomberg Sports up Day. Good morning,

0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:24.680
<v Speaker 4>John stash How.

0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:27.280
<v Speaker 15>Good morning Nathan. Aaron Judge back playing for the Yankees.

0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:29.240
<v Speaker 15>Hit a home run Saturday, and yet not in the

0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:32.000
<v Speaker 15>lineup last night in Baltimore, not even as a DH

0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:34.440
<v Speaker 15>A lot of people wondering why. As it turned out,

0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.480
<v Speaker 15>hardly mattered, not when Louis Severino's giving up seven runs

0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:40.240
<v Speaker 15>in the first inning and the Orioles went on to

0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:43.280
<v Speaker 15>win nine to three, and Severnino, who in his first

0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:45.920
<v Speaker 15>seven seasons with the Yanks only once had an ERA

0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.280
<v Speaker 15>of more than three and a half, now has an

0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:50.959
<v Speaker 15>ERA of seven and a half. This was his fourth

0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.440
<v Speaker 15>start where he had allowed at least seven runs. The

0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:55.880
<v Speaker 15>only good news for the Yankees the Astros, Blue Jays,

0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:58.000
<v Speaker 15>and Red Sox, who are all ahead of them in

0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:01.319
<v Speaker 15>the wildcard chase, all also lost. Mets one beat the

0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:03.920
<v Speaker 15>Nationals at City Field five to two. Career win number

0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.400
<v Speaker 15>two fifty for Justin Verlander, who was then asked about

0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.280
<v Speaker 15>his future in New York in light of the Mets

0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:12.359
<v Speaker 15>recent trades of Max Scherzer and David Robertson.

0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:15.520
<v Speaker 12>When you see that happen, you know you can't help

0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:19.680
<v Speaker 12>but think. You know what's what's in store for next year,

0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:22.640
<v Speaker 12>and you know we played this game to win. You

0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:25.280
<v Speaker 12>want to win a championship and you want to you

0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:28.679
<v Speaker 12>don't have the opportunity to do so, So changed my

0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:29.440
<v Speaker 12>opinion a little bit.

0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.120
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, Mets GM Billy Effler insists the Mets recent moves

0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:34.600
<v Speaker 15>are not a fire sales shures are traded to Texas.

0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:37.080
<v Speaker 15>The Rangers have now also acquired the X Yankee Jordan

0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:40.400
<v Speaker 15>Montgomery from Saint Louis. Aaron Rodgers coming to the defense

0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.120
<v Speaker 15>of his Jets offensive coreator Nathaniel Hacket the last year

0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:45.200
<v Speaker 15>as the head coach in Denver, a job that now

0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:48.440
<v Speaker 15>belongs to Sean Payton, who recently said Hackett last year

0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.480
<v Speaker 15>did the worst coaching job in NFL history. Rodgers, who's

0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.080
<v Speaker 15>close to Hacket for their time in Green Bay, called

0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:57.480
<v Speaker 15>Peyton insecure. Jets play the Browns Thursday in Canton, Ohio.

0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:00.120
<v Speaker 15>Zach Wilson will start a quarterback Rodgers as expected, and

0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.360
<v Speaker 15>will not be John Stashellwerd Bloomberg.

0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:08.720
<v Speaker 10>Sports from Coast to Coast from New York to San Francisco,

0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:13.679
<v Speaker 10>Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias exam, the Bloomberg

0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:15.880
<v Speaker 10>Business app and Bloomberg dot Com.

0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:17.880
<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:21.520
<v Speaker 4>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager at the start of another

0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:23.599
<v Speaker 4>very busy week in the markets. We have about a

0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.640
<v Speaker 4>third of S and P five hundred listed companies reporting

0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:29.520
<v Speaker 4>earnings this week. Apple and Amazon will be the big

0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:32.240
<v Speaker 4>ones to watch later on in the week. Traders could

0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:34.600
<v Speaker 4>also be looking for more clues on the policy path

0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:37.480
<v Speaker 4>with the first of two monthly jobs reports before the

0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.800
<v Speaker 4>fed's next decision in September. Lots to discuss this morning

0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:43.920
<v Speaker 4>with Dennis Gardman, the former publisher of the Gartman Letter

0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:47.400
<v Speaker 4>now chairman of the University of acron Endowment Investment Committee.

0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:50.160
<v Speaker 4>And Dennis is here with us now. Good morning, Thanks

0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.480
<v Speaker 4>for being here. So it has been a tech driven

0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:58.280
<v Speaker 4>rally that has dominated this year. Ken earnings continue to

0:10:58.360 --> 0:10:59.400
<v Speaker 4>power stocks hired.

0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:03.200
<v Speaker 16>Dennis, that's a good question, and it's a question beyond

0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:06.120
<v Speaker 16>my canaida. At this point, I have been surprised by

0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:09.080
<v Speaker 16>the strength of the stock market, to be quite honest, shocked,

0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:13.160
<v Speaker 16>to be even more blunt. It has surprised me beyond belief.

0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.600
<v Speaker 16>The fact that we've got the CNN Fair and Greed

0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:18.960
<v Speaker 16>Index has gotten to eighty five. That's actually dropped a

0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:22.440
<v Speaker 16>little bit, but the put call ratio is historically low.

0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:26.160
<v Speaker 16>The fact that the leading economic indicators have fallen below

0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:29.360
<v Speaker 16>the coincident indicators. All of these things are indicative of

0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:33.040
<v Speaker 16>a market that is overbought and do for a substantive slide.

0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:36.160
<v Speaker 16>But nonetheless the market continues to go higher and earnings

0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:41.040
<v Speaker 16>continue to beat on most instances. So I'm surprised, I'm shocked,

0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:43.920
<v Speaker 16>I'm stunned, and I'm wrong. But am I going to

0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.080
<v Speaker 16>go and be a buyer of stocks at this level? No,

0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:50.000
<v Speaker 16>it's a way beyond anybody's wildless imagination as to where

0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.600
<v Speaker 16>they have war stocks could go, and I will stand

0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:55.080
<v Speaker 16>on the sidelines and watch from the sidelines.

0:11:55.559 --> 0:12:01.319
<v Speaker 4>Well, we did get some I guess rationalisation on this

0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:04.920
<v Speaker 4>rally this morning from Mike Wilson, who's also been pretty bearish,

0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.200
<v Speaker 4>the analyst of Morgan Stanley. He's comparing what we've seen

0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:11.960
<v Speaker 4>this year to twenty nineteen, calling it policy driven late

0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:18.000
<v Speaker 4>cycle phenomenon. Could that be a possible justification for you

0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:18.520
<v Speaker 4>as well?

0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:23.840
<v Speaker 16>It's very much a justification. Clearly, there has been governmental

0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:26.559
<v Speaker 16>policies that have been incumbent in the strength of the

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 16>stock market. But most important, I guess it's the amount

0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:31.200
<v Speaker 16>of cash that's been sitting upon the s or that

0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:33.840
<v Speaker 16>was sitting upon the sidelines, a lot of which has

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 16>been put into the market in the past several weeks,

0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.040
<v Speaker 16>several months. But yeah, it's been policy driven, it's been

0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.880
<v Speaker 16>earnings driven. Man strangely enough, it's been economically driven. The

0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.679
<v Speaker 16>economy has proven to be far more resilient, far stronger

0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:50.240
<v Speaker 16>than I had thought it would be. But nonetheless, I'll

0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.640
<v Speaker 16>go with history and say that as long as the

0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.560
<v Speaker 16>leading economic indicators continue to fall below the coincidence, as

0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:57.560
<v Speaker 16>long as the put call ratio continues to be as

0:12:57.640 --> 0:12:59.880
<v Speaker 16>low as it is, and as long as the CNN

0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:02.120
<v Speaker 16>and greed index continues to be as high as it is,

0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.600
<v Speaker 16>I'll either stand upon the sidelines or be short. I'm

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.400
<v Speaker 16>modestly short in my own account, and the objective word

0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 16>here is modestly.

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.960
<v Speaker 4>How do you expect policy to go at this point

0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:18.440
<v Speaker 4>when we have seen continued strength in the economic data,

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:22.480
<v Speaker 4>and at the same time we continue to hear policy

0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 4>makers like Neil Cashcari just yesterday leaving open the possibility

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:28.679
<v Speaker 4>of yet more rate hikes.

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 16>I've always thought that once we get to five and

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:34.160
<v Speaker 16>a quarter five and a half, that would probably be

0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:36.640
<v Speaker 16>about the end of it. When I first when the

0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 16>FED began the process of raising interest rates almost a

0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:42.120
<v Speaker 16>year and a half ago, I wrote at that time

0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:44.720
<v Speaker 16>that what we have to remember is historically the Fed,

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:47.560
<v Speaker 16>once they changed policy and move from to a new direction,

0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.560
<v Speaker 16>take rates much farther for a longer period of time

0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 16>than anybody wants to anticipate. When we were at zero,

0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:55.560
<v Speaker 16>I said, we go to five percent. Who was laughable

0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.560
<v Speaker 16>at the time. Here we are at five and a

0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.480
<v Speaker 16>quarter five and a half. Maybe there's one more tightening

0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.040
<v Speaker 16>to be incumbent in the set of reserve, but I

0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:06.200
<v Speaker 16>have my doubts as to whether that's likely or not.

0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:09.719
<v Speaker 16>Time only shall tell. We'll see what happens with the

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.560
<v Speaker 16>next two employment numbers that are coming out, the first

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.760
<v Speaker 16>one coming out this week. I haven't done my work

0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.280
<v Speaker 16>yet to figure out what I'm going to anticipate for

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:19.720
<v Speaker 16>the non farm payrolls number, but it's probably going to

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:23.360
<v Speaker 16>be a high number. There's probably one more, maybe at

0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:25.960
<v Speaker 16>most two more increases in the overnight said funds rate,

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.080
<v Speaker 16>But the market is already looking towards the easying monetary policy,

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 16>and that's not going to happen until very late in

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.800
<v Speaker 16>twenty twenty four, maybe even twenty twenty five, before the

0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:39.000
<v Speaker 16>Fed begins the policy of reducing the overnight said funds rate.

0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 4>Got about a minute left here, Dennis. We did get

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 4>another surprise overnight from the Bank of Japan with this

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.240
<v Speaker 4>bond buying intervention. Do you see a read through to

0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 4>the US market from what the boj is doing.

0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 16>It's for the first time in a very long period

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.800
<v Speaker 16>of time that the BOG is actually tightening monetary policy slightly.

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 16>They're going to be I think the term that mister

0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.560
<v Speaker 16>used was flex They're going to be flexible and allowing

0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.400
<v Speaker 16>rates to go higher. But Japan, being one of the

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:08.800
<v Speaker 16>largest buyers of the mess of US debt securities, if

0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.080
<v Speaker 16>they're going to be allowing rates to go hire over there,

0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 16>they're going to be allowing rates to go high over

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:15.000
<v Speaker 16>here as money comes out of the United States and

0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.960
<v Speaker 16>moves to Japan at the margin. So it's not supportive

0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 16>of the US bond market.

0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.760
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak today. Your morning brief on the

0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.200
<v Speaker 1>stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.240
<v Speaker 3>Look for us on your podcast feed at six am

0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 3>Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:35.280
<v Speaker 3>get your podcasts.

0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.040
<v Speaker 1>You can also listen live each morning starting at five

0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.680
<v Speaker 1>am Wall Street time, on Bloomberg eleven three to zero

0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:43.560
<v Speaker 1>in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,

0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg

0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.320
<v Speaker 1>ninety sixty in San Francisco.

0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:51.840
<v Speaker 3>Our flagship New York station is also available on your

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:57.320
<v Speaker 3>Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus.

0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 1>Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business apps, serious

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:04.479
<v Speaker 1>XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg

0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 1>dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager.

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:07.400
<v Speaker 4>And I'm Karen Moscow.

0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 3>Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.680
<v Speaker 3>need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak