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Speaker 1: Happy Sunday, everybody. Welcome to the Daily Juice podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: your houst Matt Paroltire off of Bettingpros dot com. We

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Speaker 1: had a really fun night last night with UFC Fight

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Speaker 1: Night two over on Fight Island, Figoredo against Benavidez. We

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Speaker 1: got the main event right and the under right that

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Speaker 1: was a two and two for a pick. We end

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Speaker 1: up being up a half a unit because we only

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Speaker 1: told you to bet a half a unit on Spivik there.

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Speaker 1: So not a bad night for us with the UFC.

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Speaker 1: Not a great night, but better than where we were

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Speaker 1: with a couple of really bad breaks. We've been getting it. Look,

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Speaker 1: last week we got all the breaks. This week, we're

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Speaker 1: getting none of the breaks. We had Austin Sindrick going

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Speaker 1: up against Chase Brisco in the Infinity Race, and I

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Speaker 1: told you it was a race for second place and

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Speaker 1: Kyle Busch ends up winning the race. So betting on

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Speaker 1: Kyle Busch to win the race would have been the

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Speaker 1: right move, not the field. He was minus one forty,

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Speaker 1: so I said, okay, bet on that if you want.

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Speaker 1: But instead we're going to take the race for second place,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna take Risco over Syndric Sindric, Nope, he

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Speaker 1: wins it. Unfortunately for us, we don't get the pick

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Speaker 1: right and then Austin Sindric winds up winning the event

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Speaker 1: after Kyle Busch got disqualified, which is going to be

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Speaker 1: a really fun topic to get into on tomorrow's podcast

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Speaker 1: with Dave Sheapan from CG Sportsbooks about house rules. Draft

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Speaker 1: King sports books they honored if you bet Kyle Busch

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Speaker 1: to win, you won. However, at other sports books, including

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Speaker 1: a couple in Las Vegas, they said, oh no, we

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Speaker 1: wait for the race to become official, and when the

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Speaker 1: race becomes official, then we pay out the tickets. So

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Speaker 1: if you bet Austin Sindric to win, you won at

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Speaker 1: the books here in Vegas who took NASCAR's disqualification and said, sorry,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Busch, you're not going to win it. So house rules,

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Speaker 1: knowing the house rules of the book that you bet

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Speaker 1: at is extremely important. So we're gonna get into that

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Speaker 1: a little bit coming up tomorrow on the podcast with

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Speaker 1: Dave Sheripan. We've gotten some bad breaks. I understand it.

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Speaker 1: That's fine, that's gonna come with it, and we're just

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Speaker 1: gonna have to deal with it. Here. You know we

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Speaker 1: had Spivak last night to win by submission. He wins

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Speaker 1: on the cards. He had a ten eight round in

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Speaker 1: round number three. I don't know what Gastalyn was doing

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Speaker 1: in his fight against Hermanson.

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Speaker 2: I just I mean.

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Speaker 1: Tap out like that that fast in the first round

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Speaker 1: last night was all about submissions. We had a knee bar,

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Speaker 1: which is crazy with he saw a knee being bet

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Speaker 1: in the wrong direction. We saw arm bars, and then

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Speaker 1: we saw a submission by Devis Figaredo in the first

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Speaker 1: round against Joseph Benavidez. And look, I told you I

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Speaker 1: was betting on that fight, hoping Joe Joseph was gonna win.

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Speaker 1: But my money's my money, and I was gonna go

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Speaker 1: in head. I had to bet what I thought was

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. I couldn't just say, hey, I want Joe

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Speaker 1: to win, so I'm going to bet on Joe. Figaredo

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Speaker 1: is a talented fighter. He's a really dangerous guy in

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Speaker 1: the flyweight division, and he dropped Joe three times, finally

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Speaker 1: got him into a really precarious situation, bent him backwards

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Speaker 1: and got him to tap out. Huge win for Figaredo,

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Speaker 1: heartbreaking loss for Joseph Benavidez. You got to wonder where

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Speaker 1: he goes from here. He's oh and five now in

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Speaker 1: title fights, oh and three in the flyweight division. He

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Speaker 1: lost two fights for the title at bantamweight, so there's

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Speaker 1: not really anywhere for him to go, unfortunately, and that

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Speaker 1: might be it for him. That might be a career,

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Speaker 1: you know, thirty five years old, and it might be

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Speaker 1: time to call it quits. And if it is, bravo,

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Speaker 1: amazing career, incredible legacy he has left, and really an

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Speaker 1: incredibly nice guy, one of the nicest guys you will

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Speaker 1: ever ever come across. Now, we got a tweet last

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Speaker 1: night that I want to highlight because and I'm not

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Speaker 1: looking for compliments.

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Speaker 2: I'm not, you know, fishing here.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to highlight it because it makes me

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Speaker 1: so happy because we weren't having that great of a week, okay,

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Speaker 1: And to get a tweet from Eric Berg on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at iceberg Underscore mt he said, I took him figuredo

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Speaker 1: at minus two fifty for my first ever legal bet

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Speaker 1: in the state of Montana. Rode my bicycle down to

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Speaker 1: the kiosk at a sports bar to play to the bet.

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Speaker 1: Did it all because I listened to your podcast, The

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice, and I wanted to sweat a bet. I

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Speaker 1: haven't bet since March. Thanks for the pick, no, Eric,

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Speaker 1: thank you, and I appreciate that. I appreciate you highlighting that,

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Speaker 1: and that's awesome because look, I was getting pretty frustrated.

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Speaker 1: We were having some bad breaks. I mean, I told

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Speaker 1: you about what happened on the eighteenth hole for us

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Speaker 1: when it came to a head to head with Tony

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Speaker 1: Fenale against Gary Woodland Fenale Birdie's Woodland bogies that blew

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Speaker 1: it up for us on the eighteenth hole or those

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Speaker 1: two guys we lost that head to head. We skipped

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Speaker 1: on golf yesterday. Tiger heading into this round today is big.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to that here in just one second. But

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Speaker 1: you know, we just had some bad breaks, so that

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Speaker 1: put a gidea up of my step to get that, Eric,

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Speaker 1: So thank you for saying that. I really really do

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Speaker 1: appreciate it. So we're zero and two right now on

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Speaker 1: our bets for the Memorial and that's because of Bryson

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Speaker 1: Dasha on bost ten and not making the cut, so

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Speaker 1: he's not going to get into the top ten. And

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Speaker 1: then we got that head to head with Fenal in

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Speaker 1: Woodland wrong. So we've got two bets still alive, and

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Speaker 1: Patrick Cantlay against Justin Thomas is going to be a sweat.

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Speaker 1: Those guys are gonna play in this golf course coming

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Speaker 1: up here on Sunday. And then Tiger versus Brooks Koepka.

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Speaker 1: Tiger starts the round with a two strokes lead over

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Speaker 1: books Keopka, so we could wind up going two and

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Speaker 1: two there, and that's not bad because it's plus one

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Speaker 1: ten juice on Patrick Cantlay. So I will wind up

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Speaker 1: a little bit up for the memorial if those two

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Speaker 1: bets hit, so I'm hoping that winds up going down.

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Speaker 1: I got a NASCAR play here, so hopefully we'll get

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Speaker 1: this correct and go one for one for our sorry

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Speaker 1: one for two rather offer NASCAR, and pretty much we'll

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Speaker 1: follow up a ten and three week with the week

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Speaker 1: that's somewhere around five hundred, which is not horrible right,

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Speaker 1: still up still plus money. Might wind up being a

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Speaker 1: slight losing week, but not as bad as it could

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Speaker 1: be as long as we get these plays right today

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Speaker 1: here on a Sunday. So I feeling a little pressure.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie.

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Speaker 1: I got a little pressure going and hopefully we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be on the right side of things. So let's start

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Speaker 1: here with the memorial in the final round. So we've

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Speaker 1: got two head to heads going and I'm gonna add

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Speaker 1: a third head to head to our list. But before

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Speaker 1: we do that, let's talk about the course. I don't

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Speaker 1: know who made Jack Nicholas really mad, but if you

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Speaker 1: haven't seen the pin placement for this course coming up

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Speaker 1: and the weather forecast, the course on Saturday was incredibly dry,

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Speaker 1: and the driving was incredibly difficult because keeping the ball

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Speaker 1: in the fairway. These fairways are baked, they've had two

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Speaker 1: weeks of competition on them, and the weather is ninety

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Speaker 1: two degrees. It feels like one hundred out there. And

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Speaker 1: so to make it even more challenging, Jack has decided

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Speaker 1: to put these pin placements in US Open type positions.

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Speaker 1: Jack said on an interview on NBC on Saturday that

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Speaker 1: he wanted to have a US Open type of golf course,

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Speaker 1: that he wanted to separate the players from the pretenders. Well,

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, that's what's gonna happen, because it's going to

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Speaker 1: be an incredibly difficult challenge with the wind blowing at

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Speaker 1: about thirteen to fourteen miles per hour, and these pin

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Speaker 1: placements that are going to be seen with the greens

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Speaker 1: being completely dried out, rolling as fast as lightning, and

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Speaker 1: the rough is extremely thick, it's really hard to play

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Speaker 1: out of there. So if you don't hit the fairway,

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Speaker 1: which is hard to do, you're gonna wind up putting

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Speaker 1: yourself in a really tough spot for your second and

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Speaker 1: third shots. So best of luck to the players who

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Speaker 1: try to win this. But John Rahm starts the day

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Speaker 1: at minus five hundred with a four stroke lead to

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Speaker 1: win this thing, And when you look up and down

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Speaker 1: the leader board, I mean, it's hard to argue. John

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Speaker 1: Rahm is an incredibly talented player, ranked in the top

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Speaker 1: five in the world, and he just has it rolling

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Speaker 1: right now at twelve hunder par eight under for Ryan

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Speaker 1: Palmer and Tony Fenw. He shot four under today and

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Speaker 1: he called it one of the greatest rounds of his life.

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Speaker 1: That he shout sixty eight, four hundred and he just

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Speaker 1: said that was an incredible round, like it was amazing

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Speaker 1: to him to be able to do what he did.

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Speaker 2: So here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: Given the golf course conditions and given the fact that

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Speaker 1: you can't bet John Rahm here at minus five hundred.

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Speaker 2: Like that, that's ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: It's like a eighty three percent implied win victory here,

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Speaker 1: you know for John Rohm.

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Speaker 2: So like it's pretty much like a foregone conclusion.

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Speaker 1: Right, Well, I'm not gonna make these official bets, but

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Speaker 1: if you want to follow this, go ahead. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: bet on Tony Fenow at plus seventy ten to win

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Speaker 1: the event, and I'm gonna bet on Danny Willett at

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Speaker 1: twenty six to one to win the event. Willett is

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Speaker 1: six under, fenw is eight under. Why Because we've seen

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Speaker 1: guys have ridiculous holes, shots on holes. We've seen a

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Speaker 1: ten from Bryson Day Shambeau. We've seen guys have double

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Speaker 1: and triple bogey's consistently here. So it's not that nuts

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Speaker 1: to see that maybe there's a big number lurking out

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Speaker 1: there for John Rahm that might bring everybody back into play. Now,

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Speaker 1: John Rahm has no double bogies so far here through

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Speaker 1: three rounds. Is one out there for him? It's very possible.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna sprinkle here, and it's unofficial play. This

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Speaker 1: is an unofficial play. We're not gonna count this, but

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Speaker 1: just unofficially seven to one and twenty six to one.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking those two players, and I'm gonna add a

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Speaker 1: little bit here on those guys to potentially catch John

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Speaker 1: Rahm because there is the potential that it's out there.

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Speaker 1: So speaking of John Ram, this is going to be

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Speaker 1: my official play. I think Tony Feenow has a lot

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Speaker 1: of value at even money against John Rahm, who is

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty head to head round four. Here's why,

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Speaker 1: there's a really good chance that John Rohm's gonna play

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Speaker 1: defensively coming down the stretch. If he's got a three

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Speaker 1: or four stroke lead, he may just be making pars

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Speaker 1: Fenw is gonna get aggressive. Now it's feast or famine.

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Speaker 1: He absolutely could blow up. And I am recommending this

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Speaker 1: as a half unit play. As I mentioned in tournament

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Speaker 1: before the tournament, full unit in tournament, half a unit.

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Speaker 1: So this is a half a unit play. But it's

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Speaker 1: female even money in a head to head up against

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Speaker 1: John Rahm for round four. Female doesn't have to win

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Speaker 1: the event, just have a better round. Just close the

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Speaker 1: gap at four strokes, close the gap, lose by three,

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Speaker 1: lose by two. Female is gonna have to he knows

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Speaker 1: he's gonna have to go very, very low, and yeah

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Speaker 1: he had in round three yesterday he had two double bogies. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: double bogey on twelve and doll bogie on seventeen. You

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Speaker 1: hopefully see those that get eliminated here coming into round

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Speaker 1: number four. But even money on female with the way

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Speaker 1: he's playing, I'm gonna give it to him. He's been

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Speaker 1: putting really well. He's been knocking down twenty foot putts.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it to him. Tournament sat driving still

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Speaker 1: scares a holy heck out of me, only thirty eight

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Speaker 1: percent driving accuracy, but a lot of guys are having

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Speaker 1: a hard time with the drive which drives off the

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Speaker 1: tee grains in regulation at sixty three percent. By comparison,

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Speaker 1: John Rahm has a sixty nine per driving accuracy and

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Speaker 1: seventy percent greens in regulation.

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Speaker 2: Is he due?

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Speaker 1: He's gone sixty nine, sixty seven, sixty eight. Rom hot

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Speaker 1: finale went sixty six, sixty nine, seventy three. Kind of

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Speaker 1: trending in the wrong direction, But maybe he can throw

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Speaker 1: up a sixty nine and John rom just shoots a

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Speaker 1: seventy because he knows that's good enough to win the

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Speaker 1: golf tournament given the conditions, and he plays to the

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Speaker 1: middle of the green, doesn't get aggressive, doesn't get stupid,

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Speaker 1: and Tony Fenw will win the head to head with

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Speaker 1: even money over John Rom. So happy unit play on

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Speaker 1: Tony Fenwe up against John Ram for a head to

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Speaker 1: head for the final round of the Memorial with two

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Speaker 1: other plays going with Tiger versus Brooks Koepka. Tiger with

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Speaker 1: two stroke lead and I think it's a one stroke

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Speaker 1: lead at the sort of play here for Patrick Cantalay

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Speaker 1: up against Justin Thomas. So we're definitely gonna be sweating

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Speaker 1: those two bets. So three bets going, three bets to

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Speaker 1: be decided coming up today on a Sunday. Now, let's

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Speaker 1: go to Texas. We got one play for you here

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Speaker 1: on the NASCAR race.

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Speaker 2: With fans in the stands? What are we doing? What

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Speaker 2: are we doing? People?

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Speaker 1: Why are we having fans in stands? Is this really needed?

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Speaker 1: There were I believe the report on Friday there were

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Speaker 1: five hundred and ten COVID nineteen cases in the area

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Speaker 1: around the Texas More speedway like really, so we're gonna

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Speaker 1: put fans in stands and we're gonna really on an

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Speaker 1: afternoon where it's gonna be brutally, brutally hot. We're talking

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Speaker 1: to We're talking like one hundred and forty degrees in

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Speaker 1: the cars.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be like.

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Speaker 1: Ninety five outside in just an oven on the inside.

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Speaker 1: It is gonna be really difficult for these guys to drive.

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Speaker 1: I thought about and you can sprinkle on this if

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Speaker 1: you want.

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Speaker 2: I didn't.

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Speaker 1: I didn't do it, but you kind of. If you

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Speaker 1: want Fords to win this at minus one twenty five,

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Speaker 1: Toyota's at plus two oh five, that's a lane for

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Speaker 1: me with Ford, a Ford driver to win this track here,

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Speaker 1: because Fords have been very successful here. You've got Harvick

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Speaker 1: and Logano and Koslowski and Dee benandetto Ryan Blaney. I

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Speaker 1: mean just you just got a lot of really good

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Speaker 1: drivers about a lot of success at Texas. So I

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Speaker 1: don't hate that play at all. But my official play

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Speaker 1: is going to be fading Denny Hamblin, who has not

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Speaker 1: driven well here.

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Speaker 2: At Texas at all.

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Speaker 1: His average finish is nine point four versus Kevin Harvick,

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Speaker 1: whose average finish this season now is at six point seven.

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Speaker 1: And Harvick has done really, really well here on this track.

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Speaker 1: He really likes he's been so red hot, right, So

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Speaker 1: because of that reason, a lot of people are picking

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Speaker 1: Harvick to win the race. I'm just gonna go ahead

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Speaker 1: and take and it's a little bit, it's a little

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Speaker 1: steep on the juice, it's a little expensive, but it's

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Speaker 1: minus one seventy here, So I'm gonna take Harvick minus

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Speaker 1: one seventy in a head to head up against plus

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Speaker 1: one point fifty on the other side for Denny Hamlin.

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Speaker 1: I just think a four driver is gonna have a

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Speaker 1: lot of success, and I'm gonna keep going with Harvick

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Speaker 1: to have a really good performance, another impressive performance coming

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Speaker 1: up here at Texas, so ford domination will continue. Harvick's

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Speaker 1: domination will continue, maybe not winning the event, but a

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Speaker 1: top five, top ten type performance. Hamlin's not done well

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Speaker 1: at this track at all, So I'm gonna fade Denny Hamlin.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Kevin Harvick, and I'm gonna lay the

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Speaker 1: minus one seventy juice on that. Harvick over Denny Hamlin

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Speaker 1: for Texas. Coming up on Sunday for NASCAR at Texas

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Speaker 1: Motor Speedway, Riley Auto Parts five one hundred. So we

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Speaker 1: got one official play going on here for Golf, Fenale

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Speaker 1: over rom one official play for NASCAR when it comes

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Speaker 1: to Harvick over Hamlin.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna sprinkle if.

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Speaker 1: You want on final and will it to win the

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Speaker 1: event and they run John Rohm down. And if you

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Speaker 1: want to go with Ford a four driver to win

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Speaker 1: the event a minus one twenty five, you can sprinkle

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Speaker 1: in there as well.

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Speaker 2: But those aren't official plays.

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Speaker 1: So just two official plays going today for US, one

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Speaker 1: in Golf, one on the Cup Series, and hopefully we

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Speaker 1: hit them both and we wind up pretty much with

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Speaker 1: a five hundred week, which is given where we were

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Speaker 1: a couple of days ago. I will absolutely take one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent take. But good night last night in terms

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Speaker 1: of getting the official pick right. That got me feeling

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Speaker 1: better that we got both the under and figuredo to win.

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Speaker 1: That was a big side of relief for me to

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Speaker 1: get that correct, to get us back on the winning

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Speaker 1: track and get us back to where we need to

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Speaker 1: be here, which is picking winners on the daily juice.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you come back tomorrow we're gonna have more picks.

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Speaker 1: But also an in depth conversation with Dave Schaapan from

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Speaker 1: CG sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. More on how to

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Speaker 1: make you a better sports gambler. All that and more

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Speaker 1: coming up follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: We're back tomorrow morning for a Monday's Daily Juice of

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com