WEBVTT - Colliers Intl. U.S. CEO on Commercial Real Estate

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Radio US no new home sales. We talked about this

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<v Speaker 1>with Mike McKee. Rising into Scember for the first time

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<v Speaker 1>in five months. It's capping the best year since oh six,

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<v Speaker 1>signaling that record low mortgage rates continue to drive demand

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<v Speaker 1>for a sector that's really been a bright spot in

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<v Speaker 1>the US economy. Saw another story on the Bloomberg about

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<v Speaker 1>Hampton's home sales are at a record in the fourth quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>People continuing to leave New York City head out to

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<v Speaker 1>the Hampton's. Meantime, even as the pack of Chapter eleven

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<v Speaker 1>filings in commercial real estate have slowed amid easy access

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<v Speaker 1>to fund some are still telling us that the real

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<v Speaker 1>estate industry is quote facing an existential crisis of what's next.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's see what Gil Barack has to say. He

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<v Speaker 1>is the U S Presidency of Colliers International. He is

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<v Speaker 1>with us on the phone from Los Angeles. Gil looks

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<v Speaker 1>so nice to have you here. How are you and

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<v Speaker 1>how is your world and how does it compare from

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<v Speaker 1>kind of what we saw over the last year. I

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<v Speaker 1>tell nice to talk with you again. Yeah, Look, I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're doing fine. It's been a long year for

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<v Speaker 1>all of us, or along eleven months um, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that you know, sort of where we are. We're

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<v Speaker 1>closer to the end than the beginning. That's the good news, right.

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<v Speaker 1>The vaccines are rolling slowly, but they're rolling, uh. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that most people are quite encouraged by that,

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<v Speaker 1>and encouraged about the fact that we should be returned

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<v Speaker 1>to some sense of normalcy by the middle of the

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<v Speaker 1>year and into the back half of the year. And

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<v Speaker 1>so things are looking up. And they didn't end as

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<v Speaker 1>badly as some might have predicted. Sort of when the

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<v Speaker 1>crisis hit us in March and April last year, there

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<v Speaker 1>was activity, uh, and there was some sense of optimism,

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<v Speaker 1>you know again towards the end of last year. Clearly

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<v Speaker 1>we didn't perform last year like we did in two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand nineteen, but things did gradually start to get better

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<v Speaker 1>and that trend seems to be continuing. Is that true

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<v Speaker 1>around the world? I mean, I knew you focus on

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<v Speaker 1>US properties, but you guys are international. Is it kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the same story everywhere? It depends on the market.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I know real estate is location, location, location,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a very local story. But I'm just curious. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I know everything I've heard and read from my colleagues,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, across the ponds, UM is that they're feeling

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<v Speaker 1>sort of generally the same way. There is enthusiasm, activity

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<v Speaker 1>is picking up, um and UM. You know, their their pockets. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>there are things within the industry, things like industrial, which

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<v Speaker 1>I think is fairly common now than anybody that follows

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<v Speaker 1>the space. Industrial real estate is having. You know, COVID

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<v Speaker 1>has been a silver lining for them, right It's it's

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<v Speaker 1>been because of e commerce and you see this globally,

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<v Speaker 1>the demand for that type of real estate has really

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<v Speaker 1>been the opposite of most other asset types because of

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<v Speaker 1>the e commist growth. Are you seeing any bankruptcies with

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<v Speaker 1>any of your properties? Because I'm trying to get my

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<v Speaker 1>head around that, because I think that was the story

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<v Speaker 1>we thought was coming was coming was coming in uh

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<v Speaker 1>and and expectations as restaurants shut down, as retail shut down,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm just curious, are you guys facing some bankruptcies

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<v Speaker 1>with any of your properties or are you seeing any

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<v Speaker 1>of that? We really it's really diminimous. Um. There was

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of talk and this is not dissimilar to

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and eight two thousand nine that the stress

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<v Speaker 1>debt is coming, the the special servicing needs are coming,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's going to be a wave, and that wave

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<v Speaker 1>didn't happen. Yes, they're clearly there are properties that are distressed.

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<v Speaker 1>There are there are problematic situations. They are higher than

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<v Speaker 1>what they are they normally are in normal times. But

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<v Speaker 1>it hasn't been at least from what we've seen, it

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<v Speaker 1>hasn't been a huge wave yet. Um. I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what the next few months hold as stimulus checks are

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<v Speaker 1>coming out again, but whether you know, if, if if

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<v Speaker 1>we don't see some improvement in terms of of of

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<v Speaker 1>stimulus and in terms of the crisis receding through vaccination, right,

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<v Speaker 1>then the longer it goes on, the harder it is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be for people to keep going. But so

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<v Speaker 1>far it's been manageable, easy for me to right if

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<v Speaker 1>it's not, if I haven't been directly impacted, Well, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>does that change? Does that any of that? I mean

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<v Speaker 1>you say that you see that we're closer to the

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<v Speaker 1>end than we are at the beginning, But I do

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<v Speaker 1>wonder do you think that there will still be some

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<v Speaker 1>fallout of properties just because the world is changing When

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to real estate, I think they will be

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it would be you know, remiss of

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<v Speaker 1>me to say that, or putting my head in the

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<v Speaker 1>sand if I didn't say. Look, I think the way

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<v Speaker 1>that for example, office, that's the big elephant in the room, right,

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<v Speaker 1>How is office going to come back and in what fashion?

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<v Speaker 1>And how is demand going to be? Well, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's a mixed bag. You see some new developments that

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<v Speaker 1>are fifty and sixty and sev already pre leased, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think it depends on where they are and what

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<v Speaker 1>type of um, you know, office space you have. So

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<v Speaker 1>new is generally good and popular. Old is probably going

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<v Speaker 1>to struggle more, um you know, because we will work

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<v Speaker 1>a bit differently, and I think we will see people

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<v Speaker 1>working more remotely than they have historically. And the trend

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<v Speaker 1>will be get downward trend in demand, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>offset by when the economy recovers and stoughts to grow

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<v Speaker 1>again and there's more demands for space. So there are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be some lasting impacts, particularly I think in

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<v Speaker 1>the office arena. So Gil, let me ask you, um offices,

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<v Speaker 1>wide open spaces, right, that has just been the thing

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg. It's been in our culture from day one,

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<v Speaker 1>this whole idea of open spaces and no real offices, um,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we start really take off with all the

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<v Speaker 1>tech companies. Right, it was the cool thing, the right

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<v Speaker 1>thing to do, and everybody got away from offices. Will

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<v Speaker 1>we stay with it? Do you think that changes significantly? Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>in the short term, conventional wisdom would suggest that that's

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<v Speaker 1>probably not a good idea to be guest sharing, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and to be so close to each other without some

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<v Speaker 1>kind of plexiglass separation. I think it remains to be

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<v Speaker 1>seen because if you reconfigure offices, there is a capital

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<v Speaker 1>cost to doing that, and I think that in the

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<v Speaker 1>short term anyway, my own sense is we can manage

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<v Speaker 1>it a different way. So, for example, have half the

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<v Speaker 1>employee has come in on Monday and Wednesday and the

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<v Speaker 1>other half on Tuesday and Thursday. A lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>want to work remotely a little bit anyway after the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's sort of you know, and a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people can work remotely quite effectively. So I think we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to come back in stages, and it sort of

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<v Speaker 1>does remain to be seeing what the long term holds.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we'll get back to it. I think there

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<v Speaker 1>is a camaraderie and a productivity to having open offices.

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<v Speaker 1>I think people like it and they have gotten used

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<v Speaker 1>to it, and I weren't for the pandemic. Uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>nobody would think twice about it. So there'll be some

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<v Speaker 1>I think, some short term, short to medium term restraint

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<v Speaker 1>on that type of setup. But I think over time,

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<v Speaker 1>we you know, we can evolve back to it. Particularly

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccines are effective. All right, So what about retail.

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<v Speaker 1>We just did a story about them all out in

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<v Speaker 1>Vegas and it's not a new story deal, right, like

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<v Speaker 1>we've been talking about it for a year. We're overstored,

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<v Speaker 1>We're overmauled. Uh. And I do feel like mall developers

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<v Speaker 1>are getting a little bit more strategic in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>where they put them all. So what's what what do

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<v Speaker 1>we continue to see on that front? Yeah? So I

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<v Speaker 1>think you know, retail is um It has obviously suffered

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<v Speaker 1>and that and and it has for us, as you say,

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<v Speaker 1>and the pandemic obviously accelerated and deepened that suffering, if

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<v Speaker 1>you will. But I think that malls that offer an experience,

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<v Speaker 1>and it used to be that you think of that, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>that has to be an outdoor mall. Not necessarily so,

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<v Speaker 1>because you have some of these new malls that have

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<v Speaker 1>been developed unfortunately maybe not quite gotten off the ground

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<v Speaker 1>because of the pandemic. But they have attractions, whether that's

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<v Speaker 1>roller coasters or attractions to kids or whatever it is. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>those draw crowds and of course then they shop right

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<v Speaker 1>And so I think if it's a new mall, if

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<v Speaker 1>it's an exciting mall, if it's in a good location,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe good restaurants when we get back to normal, those

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<v Speaker 1>I think are ultimately going to be fine. The malls

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<v Speaker 1>of the type you're talking about in somewhat of a

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<v Speaker 1>remote location. It's not entirely remote because a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>cards as a lot of card plastic and outlets. People

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<v Speaker 1>would stop on the way to Vegas. It makes sense.

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<v Speaker 1>But they're not surviving very well in the pandemic. Maybe

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<v Speaker 1>they come back, or maybe some of them come back,

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<v Speaker 1>but then who ever owns them sort of have to

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<v Speaker 1>have the wherewith all the capital to keep them going

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<v Speaker 1>until things turn around. So that's why they're sort of

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<v Speaker 1>falling a bit by the wayside, and they may have

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<v Speaker 1>to be repurposed. Now you say, well, what's that repurposing

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't know, but I do know that

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<v Speaker 1>developers and owners are are are creative and who ever

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<v Speaker 1>paid a million five to five for that mall has

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<v Speaker 1>some idea of how they might repurpose it. Uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>to get a return on that investment. Well, when you

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<v Speaker 1>look at properties that you want to be involved in,

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<v Speaker 1>what's changed? How have you been impacted by the last year? Look,

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<v Speaker 1>I think you know the not not You've got to

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<v Speaker 1>be thoughtful about you know, how you make investments, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's the truth about the stock market or anything else

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<v Speaker 1>that you're going to invest in. Right, So you you've

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<v Speaker 1>got to look at where the trains are going. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's what we would advise our clients. Where are

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<v Speaker 1>the trends going and what's the pricing? And some clients,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it has to do with their their risk, right,

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<v Speaker 1>their risk profile and how risk averse they are. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>somebody's buying assets for a cheap price or cheaper price

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<v Speaker 1>because somebody else is concerned about the future of that asset,

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<v Speaker 1>and there'll be winners and losers, is what's going to happen. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you're you know, if you're a conservative investor,

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<v Speaker 1>you might Right now, you might be investing in places

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<v Speaker 1>and thinking about places that are the next the next

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<v Speaker 1>industrial boom right Uh, where Eventually we're running out of

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<v Speaker 1>space in the traditional industrial hubs. So where's the next

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<v Speaker 1>best place? Because that's here to stay. I believe that ecomistration, it'll, it'll,

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<v Speaker 1>growth will slow, but it's here to stay. And if

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<v Speaker 1>you're conservative, pretty good place to put your money. Where

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<v Speaker 1>do you think the next industrial hub will be? Oh?

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<v Speaker 1>I hadn't anticipated that question. I don't want to answer

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<v Speaker 1>it in a in a milk toast kind of way,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's got to be where there's where there's access

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<v Speaker 1>to freeways and access to ports, and so I there's

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<v Speaker 1>you know you are. Those types of hubs are constrained

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<v Speaker 1>by geography. Obviously, the big ones are the big ports

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<v Speaker 1>cities Los Angeles, Long Beach, San Francisco to some degree. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that you've got them obviously on the East coast.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got it in Texas. So I think you're what

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna find. I think is expansion close to where

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<v Speaker 1>they are, But maybe you're gonna have half an hour drive,

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<v Speaker 1>but a very manageable drive to the next top. I

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<v Speaker 1>can't go into the middle of the country. It doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't logistically work right, Hey, what do you make of

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<v Speaker 1>We've did so many stories about people moving to Austin.

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<v Speaker 1>I was just having a conversation with somebody the other day,

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<v Speaker 1>or moving south and whether it's Elon Musk or Oracle

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<v Speaker 1>to Austin, whether it's increasingly financial firms to South Miami.

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<v Speaker 1>So are those real? They are real? I mean there's

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<v Speaker 1>definitely a trend. You do get some firms saying the

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<v Speaker 1>count right, were worth sticking it out in New York City?

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<v Speaker 1>Um right? I think black Crowk was one who came

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<v Speaker 1>out and said that, and there've been a handful of others.

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<v Speaker 1>It is real, and it stands to reason. Right, if

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<v Speaker 1>you can work remotely and we we currently are um

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<v Speaker 1>many of us who have you know, office jobs and

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<v Speaker 1>it's been effective, then you can move to cheaper locations

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<v Speaker 1>now to catch of course, and people don't talk about

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<v Speaker 1>this as much as a number of companies that have said,

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<v Speaker 1>you can work wherever you want, but by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>we are going to change your compensation to match the

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<v Speaker 1>cost of living. And then the question becomes in an

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<v Speaker 1>Austin if it does get an influx of people and

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<v Speaker 1>for yours, people have gone to Austin, but now in

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<v Speaker 1>a bigger way. Right, is the cost of living going

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<v Speaker 1>to go up in Austin? Stands the reason? It probably will,

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<v Speaker 1>So it'll be interesting to watch. And you know, things

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<v Speaker 1>tend to revert to the means, so I think maybe

0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.400
<v Speaker 1>it's a you know, there'll be some lasting impact, but

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of people will also come back

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<v Speaker 1>when things normalize. Yeah, somebody talk to me about a

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<v Speaker 1>house in Austin and they were like, bids on it

0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:01.079
<v Speaker 1>or offers so crazy stuff. Um, Gil's so nice to

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<v Speaker 1>check in with you, Gilbarrock. He is US president CE

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<v Speaker 1>have Collier's International with us on the phone from l

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<v Speaker 1>A