WEBVTT - How the Brain Is Built for Conspiracies (with David Eagleman)

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<v Speaker 1>It's not pathways switched on by propaganda, it's pathways switched off.

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<v Speaker 1>It turns out that what propaganda does is it suppresses

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<v Speaker 1>those networks so that I come to understand some other

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<v Speaker 1>group more like an object rather than another person. Where

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<v Speaker 1>you associate somebody with something bad like pollution or viruses

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<v Speaker 1>or whatever. But the point is you don't see them

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<v Speaker 1>as a human and that's the power of propaganda and dehumanization.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm John Cipher and I'm Jerry o'she I served in

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<v Speaker 2>the CIA's Clandestine Service for twenty eight years, living undercover

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<v Speaker 2>all around the world.

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<v Speaker 3>And in my thirty three years with the CIA, I

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<v Speaker 3>served in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>Although we don't usually look at it this way, we

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<v Speaker 2>created conspiracies.

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<v Speaker 3>In our operations. We got people to believe things that

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<v Speaker 3>weren't true.

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<v Speaker 2>Now we're investigating the conspiracy theories we see in the

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<v Speaker 2>news almost every day.

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<v Speaker 3>Will break them down for you to determine whether they

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<v Speaker 3>could be real or whether we're being manipular.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to Mission Implausible. Our guest today is David Eagleman.

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<v Speaker 2>He's a neuroscientist and a teacher at Stanford. Best selling

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<v Speaker 2>author of numerous books and articles, and the host of

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<v Speaker 2>the outstanding podcast Intercosmos with David Eagleman. David, Welcome to

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<v Speaker 2>Mission Implausible.

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<v Speaker 1>Great to be here, guys.

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<v Speaker 4>So David, I'll kick it off, maybe with an observation

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<v Speaker 4>and a question to get us going. One of the

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<v Speaker 4>observation is that CIA and neuroscience, at least when it

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<v Speaker 4>comes to conspiracy theories, they're actually much closer than you think,

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<v Speaker 4>because as agency officers, we deal not only with people

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<v Speaker 4>having conspiracy theories about US secret organization, but in our

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<v Speaker 4>work we dealt with people who are conspiracy theorists, and

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<v Speaker 4>we deal with societies that view life through a conspiratorial

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<v Speaker 4>or conspiracy theory lens. So if you sit down John

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<v Speaker 4>or I, if we sit down with a Pakistani scientist he's

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<v Speaker 4>convinced that the Jews run the world. You have to

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<v Speaker 4>deal with this guy, right, he's got information. We have

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<v Speaker 4>to figure out how to work with him and how

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<v Speaker 4>to talk to him. And on the other hand, there

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<v Speaker 4>was a really smart, intelligent person from a major agent country.

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<v Speaker 4>He was in their security service. He and I were

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<v Speaker 4>getting close, and I realized he was trying to recruit

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<v Speaker 4>me and what his government wanted to know, and what

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<v Speaker 4>he wanted to know is what was the role of

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<v Speaker 4>the Masonic lodges in the United States, because clearly they

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<v Speaker 4>run the US. So, just to kick it off, I'd

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<v Speaker 4>love your thoughts on why people are prone to conspiracy

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<v Speaker 4>theories and why societies are as well.

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<v Speaker 1>It's because the job of the brain is to make

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<v Speaker 1>hypotheses about the world. So your brain is locked in

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<v Speaker 1>silence and darkness inside the skull, and it's trying to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out what the heck is going on out there,

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<v Speaker 1>and so the way it does this is by generating

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<v Speaker 1>ideas and testing those because you know, we're totally limited

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<v Speaker 1>in what we can actually know about the world, not

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<v Speaker 1>only because our reach is very small, but also because

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<v Speaker 1>the world is very complicated. There are billions of people

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<v Speaker 1>in the world, and we're always trying to figure things out. Now. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>brains do this naturally. So if I'm trying to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out where I put my phone down, my first hypothesis is, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>I must have left it where I normally do, and

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<v Speaker 1>then it's not there, so I think, oh, maybe I

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<v Speaker 1>carried it with me over to the bedroom and left

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<v Speaker 1>it there, And then I search that and I find

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<v Speaker 1>that's not true. And then as I continue to not

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<v Speaker 1>find my phone, what the brain naturally does and appropriately

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<v Speaker 1>is it turns up the temperature on these ideas and

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<v Speaker 1>it comes up with whackier and whackier hypothesis. And eventually,

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<v Speaker 1>if you can't find your phone, you might say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the electrician who was here maybe took the phone.

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<v Speaker 1>This is what brains do, and this is a natural

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<v Speaker 1>part of what they're supposed to do. Now, interestingly, this

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<v Speaker 1>is what leads to conspiracy theories, because when we're generating

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<v Speaker 1>a hypothesis about what was it that land in ron aswell,

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<v Speaker 1>or how did JFK actually get killed? Or the nine

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<v Speaker 1>to eleven? How did the towers actually fall? When your

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<v Speaker 1>brain comes up with a really crazy hypothesis, usually you

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<v Speaker 1>dismiss that one in favor of things that are more likely.

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<v Speaker 1>And so my interest has been in why people are

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<v Speaker 1>attracted to certain hypotheses, and I actually think there are

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<v Speaker 1>several reasons here. One of them is that puzzle solving

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<v Speaker 1>is very rewarding to the brain. And of course we're

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<v Speaker 1>trained on this since we're kids. You're in school, you

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<v Speaker 1>have all kinds of flavors of puzzles that you do

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<v Speaker 1>all the time, and this actually activates these reward systems

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<v Speaker 1>when you solve them, and when you generate a good

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<v Speaker 1>theory to explain a mysterious event or just to have

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<v Speaker 1>a complete different explanation of event, there's something really rewarding

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<v Speaker 1>about cracking that puzzle. You are the Sherlock Homes in

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<v Speaker 1>that moment. And I do want to make clear that

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<v Speaker 1>when I often you people say things like conspiracy theories

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<v Speaker 1>are not rational, but in fact they're completely in line

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<v Speaker 1>with what brains do to solve problems. And when someone

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<v Speaker 1>buys into a conspiracy theory, it's not necessarily that they're

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<v Speaker 1>being disingenuous. It's that the world is large and complex,

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<v Speaker 1>and the best any of us are trying to do

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<v Speaker 1>is fit together lego pieces to try to figure out

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<v Speaker 1>what the heck is going on out there. I'll just

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<v Speaker 1>say a couple other things, which is that fascinatingly, there

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<v Speaker 1>are many reasons why brains try to solve puzzles all

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<v Speaker 1>the time. One of them is to reduce cognitive dissonance,

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<v Speaker 1>which is to say, you know, when we're faced with

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<v Speaker 1>facts that don't fit or information that conflicts, which happens

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<v Speaker 1>all the time, that's uncomfortable for us. And so when

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<v Speaker 1>you can come up with a good conspiracy theory that fits,

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<v Speaker 1>it can reduce cognitive load and complexity and dissonance. So

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<v Speaker 1>just a couple other things I think are fascinating here,

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<v Speaker 1>which is we're also all yoked with a confirmation bias,

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<v Speaker 1>which just means that we seek out information and we

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<v Speaker 1>like information that confirms our pre existing beliefs.

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<v Speaker 4>I've got a ten dollar word I want to use,

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<v Speaker 4>so I probably mispronounce it, but peridola, right, paridolia. So

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<v Speaker 4>from an evolutionary point of view, as I understand it,

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<v Speaker 4>we're more likely to survive and breed if we see patterns.

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<v Speaker 4>If there's a rustle in the bushes in a shadow,

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<v Speaker 4>it could be a tiger, right, so you run. You

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<v Speaker 4>don't know if it's a tiger. And of course the

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<v Speaker 4>person who goes over and says I'm going to go

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<v Speaker 4>check this out and determine whether it is or isn't,

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<v Speaker 4>of course they're going to get eaten, right, even if

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<v Speaker 4>it's only one out of one hundred times. So that

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<v Speaker 4>we've evolved this innate capacity to see patterns and to

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<v Speaker 4>even if they're false, evolutionarily speaking, it's still an advantage

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<v Speaker 4>or it has been an advantage to us.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly. So first, let me define the ten dollar word,

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<v Speaker 1>which is paradolia is seeing patterns in random visual patterns.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably the most common example of paradolia is seeing faces.

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<v Speaker 1>You look at the electrical plug on the wall and

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like two eyes and mouth. You go, there's

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<v Speaker 1>a old face there. That's paradolia. And of course we

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<v Speaker 1>see faces and everything, the man on the moon or

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<v Speaker 1>some burn marks on a piece of toast or whatever. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm going to introduce another ten dollars word, which

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<v Speaker 1>is apo fenia, which is the more generalized thing. So

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<v Speaker 1>paradolia is about visual patterns, but apoffenia is about just

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<v Speaker 1>as signing meaning to random patterns. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>really at the heart of conspiracy theories, is our brain's

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<v Speaker 1>natural inclination to find meaningful connections in random data.

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<v Speaker 2>The thing that I don't get is how when people

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<v Speaker 2>come out the other end and they believe in lizard

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<v Speaker 2>people and QAnon and the politicians drink blood, those things

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<v Speaker 2>aren't sensible answers or sensible patterns of solving any kind

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<v Speaker 2>of puzzle. How does that work? How could someone go

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<v Speaker 2>down a rabbit hole and believe that politicians drink the

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<v Speaker 2>blood of children.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing to appreciate is that it's all on a spectrum, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So you can believe in a whack your and whack

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<v Speaker 1>your hypothesis about something, and eventually you find yourself pretty

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<v Speaker 1>far out on something. But if it confirms the bias

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<v Speaker 1>you have about this politician, and if it seems to

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<v Speaker 1>answer some sort of if it cracks a puzzle for you,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know what it is. In this case, all

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<v Speaker 1>these children have disappeared and these politicians seem to be

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<v Speaker 1>getting healthier or whatever the thing is, then to your mind,

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<v Speaker 1>that might make sense. But there's actually another thing that

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<v Speaker 1>I think might shed some light here, which is that

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<v Speaker 1>there is a social component to conspiracy theories. And I've

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<v Speaker 1>been very interested in this issue. So actually I would

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<v Speaker 1>say there's two aspects of social components. One is brains

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<v Speaker 1>are very predisposed to have in groups and outgroups. You've

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<v Speaker 1>got the people that you know and like and trust

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<v Speaker 1>presumably the group that you are in, and then there's

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<v Speaker 1>the others who are in that outgroup, and we trust

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<v Speaker 1>them less, we think they're capable of anything any sort

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<v Speaker 1>of moral turpitude, and that allows for whackier and whack

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<v Speaker 1>your hypotheses to be possible. But I think there's even

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<v Speaker 1>a second social component that's even more important, which is

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<v Speaker 1>that if you are the one that comes up with

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<v Speaker 1>a conspiracy theory, you get a lot of attention for that,

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<v Speaker 1>or at least you think you do. You get to say, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>look I've pieced all these things together, and I know

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<v Speaker 1>something that is the first time anyone has ever known

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<v Speaker 1>this in the history of humankind. I mean, look, this

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<v Speaker 1>kind of thing drives science, right if you are Einstein

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<v Speaker 1>and you explain this little loop de loop that the

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<v Speaker 1>planet Mercury does with the special theory of relativity, and

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<v Speaker 1>suddenly like everything is clear, and no one in the

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<v Speaker 1>history of humankind has ever felt this, you know, has

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<v Speaker 1>ever understood this before. What Einstein said is he felt

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<v Speaker 1>like something snapped inside him. I mean, what a feeling,

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<v Speaker 1>what a moment. And by the way, I think this

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<v Speaker 1>social component matters even if you're just the guy repeating

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<v Speaker 1>the story, the one who came up with it, But

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<v Speaker 1>you get something out of telling it. Why, Because conspiracy

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<v Speaker 1>theories are interesting and you get attention at the party

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<v Speaker 1>for saying this or on social media. And the reason

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<v Speaker 1>they are interesting is because they challenge someone else's internal model.

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<v Speaker 1>They think they understood something. Oh, I know how nine

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<v Speaker 1>to eleven happened, or how JFK got shot orund and

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<v Speaker 1>certainly you tell them something and voila, there's a totally

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<v Speaker 1>different framework for explaining the same thing, and that holds

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<v Speaker 1>their attention. And even if you were at the original

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<v Speaker 1>sherlock who came up with a theory, you get to

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<v Speaker 1>glow in the credit of that because you're the ones

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<v Speaker 1>spreading the word and with a good story, it's like

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<v Speaker 1>a gift certificate that doesn't get used up, that gives

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<v Speaker 1>you really great social feedback.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, let's take a break from the craziness just.

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<v Speaker 5>For a minute or two, and we're back.

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<v Speaker 4>I know somebody who's who lost a relative at Jonestown

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<v Speaker 4>and Jim Jones and the temple famously nine hundred and

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<v Speaker 4>eighteen people. The word is they committed suicide. They literally

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<v Speaker 4>drank the kool aid Arsenick and the grave kool aid.

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<v Speaker 4>But Jim Jones at the end had come up with

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<v Speaker 4>this intricate conspiracy theory about how the US government was

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<v Speaker 4>going to attack them. They were going to be murdered

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<v Speaker 4>and tortured, their children would be taken away, and this

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<v Speaker 4>was the only way out. And in the end, as

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<v Speaker 4>people have studied this more probably only about I'll just

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<v Speaker 4>say half a significant number actually drank the kool aid voluntarily,

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<v Speaker 4>but a lot of them when push came to shove,

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<v Speaker 4>when somebody almost literally put a gun to their head

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<v Speaker 4>and said, do you believe this conspiracy? More than half

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<v Speaker 4>of them are around half didn't you know? They went

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<v Speaker 4>along with it for the social component to be in

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<v Speaker 4>the end group, but when it's like my life's steak, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>they knew it wasn't true. Deep in their hearts. They

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<v Speaker 4>knew it wasn't They still drank it because they put

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<v Speaker 4>literally a gun to their head or a crossbow. And

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<v Speaker 4>so these people did kill themselves because they were forced to.

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<v Speaker 4>But it wasn't a mass suicide. It was a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of them. A lot of them did it because they

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<v Speaker 4>bought into it, and a lot of them did it

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<v Speaker 4>they didn't really believe. In the end. It was like

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<v Speaker 4>it was a sham in their inner hearts. They didn't

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<v Speaker 4>believe in the conspiracy.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to address one point here that I

0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:31.400
<v Speaker 1>think matters, which is that when it comes to our

0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:36.120
<v Speaker 1>believing in something, it's not that there's a true answer,

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.240
<v Speaker 1>as in, oh, I didn't really believe it, or I did.

0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:41.160
<v Speaker 1>You have lots of different networks in your brain all running.

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:42.599
<v Speaker 1>The way I've described to some of my books is

0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 1>that it's a team of rivals under the hood, and

0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:48.080
<v Speaker 1>so you can both believe something and part of you

0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 1>doesn't believe it at all, and part of you thinks, hey,

0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.360
<v Speaker 1>this may be really true. So all those things can

0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:53.960
<v Speaker 1>be running in your head at once. So it's hard

0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 1>to say that they didn't believe it at all and

0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.920
<v Speaker 1>they knew it was a sham. It's possible that they

0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:01.559
<v Speaker 1>were questioning back and forth, wow is this true? Is

0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:05.120
<v Speaker 1>it's not true? A good mid level conspiracy theory, ninety

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.760
<v Speaker 1>nine percent of your cognitive mind says, Okay, that is

0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:10.680
<v Speaker 1>definitely not true. But then you think, hey, what if

0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 1>what you can partially entertain it.

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:15.839
<v Speaker 2>You talked about sort of truth and the relativism of truth,

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.040
<v Speaker 2>and that we each have our own sort of worldview

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.760
<v Speaker 2>or in our own heads that maybe there's not really

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 2>unimpeachable truth. There are things that are clearly not true,

0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 2>like back to my original question, the view that there

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:31.600
<v Speaker 2>are lizard people running the world and running our politics.

0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:34.959
<v Speaker 2>No one has ever seen a lizard person, So how

0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.800
<v Speaker 2>is it that people can convince themselves of things that

0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 2>there's just no evidence for.

0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, okay, So I think this is a really important

0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:47.080
<v Speaker 1>question because it shows a couple things. One is, first

0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.040
<v Speaker 1>of all, this social component. I don't if you hear

0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.680
<v Speaker 1>about the lizard people running politics and you go and

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.840
<v Speaker 1>you tell someone else, there is some social component to Hey,

0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:57.480
<v Speaker 1>I get to be the one telling you about this,

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.600
<v Speaker 1>even if this is unlikely to be true, there's still

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.920
<v Speaker 1>some social award to get. But more importantly, our world

0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.880
<v Speaker 1>has mental illness. About one percent of the population, for example,

0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:11.160
<v Speaker 1>has schizophrenia, which means that they're divorced from reality and

0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>they can have a thought like lizard people are running society,

0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:20.280
<v Speaker 1>and to them there's nothing strange about that. They feel like, Okay,

0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:23.320
<v Speaker 1>I know that's true, because I don't know if you

0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:25.640
<v Speaker 1>have ever talked or any of the listeners ever known

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:27.280
<v Speaker 1>someone or had a loved one or just a friend

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 1>or someone that talked to with schizophrenia. But when somebody

0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:35.440
<v Speaker 1>is delusional, they will believe whatever coinage their brain is

0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:38.320
<v Speaker 1>coughing up. So in the same way that we believe

0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:44.240
<v Speaker 1>our dreams are completely wacky, ridiculous dreams when we're in them,

0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:46.720
<v Speaker 1>that's exactly what it's like for a person with schizophrenia.

0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.520
<v Speaker 1>I talked with one gentleman who was telling me that

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 1>he had just had brunch with the president and advised

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:54.760
<v Speaker 1>him on all these things and so on. He was

0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:59.080
<v Speaker 1>locked in a mental institution, and clearly this was not true,

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.120
<v Speaker 1>but he believed it. I came back and saw him

0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 1>about ten days later. He was now not having hallucinations,

0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>and I asked him about that. I said, Hey, what's

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:09.360
<v Speaker 1>your view on that now? And he said, oh, I

0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:11.760
<v Speaker 1>guess that wasn't true. Now it feels like a dream

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.400
<v Speaker 1>to me. But when I was there ten days ago,

0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:18.480
<v Speaker 1>I felt like that was true. So there's some interesting

0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:21.400
<v Speaker 1>interaction between the one percent of the population that has

0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:25.920
<v Speaker 1>schizophrenia and then other people who are maybe just adjacent

0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:28.760
<v Speaker 1>to them. And so I have a suspicion this is

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 1>a little bit sometimes how things can spread.

0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:36.080
<v Speaker 4>So if I understand correctly hate speech, of course, dictators

0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:42.000
<v Speaker 4>and hate groups use these dehumanizing metaphors that they switch

0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:47.960
<v Speaker 4>on neural pathways and these neural pathways, they bypass higher

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 4>cognitive reasoning centers, and over time, these mental patterns become

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:56.240
<v Speaker 4>entrenched and it becomes more and more difficult to get

0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 4>out of them. And of course for CIA officers, this

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.360
<v Speaker 4>is something that's very important when we're dealing with people

0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 4>or societies that view the world this way. And so

0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 4>I know John's a Russia expert, and looking at Russia now,

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:13.040
<v Speaker 4>I think there's a lot of this neural pathway change

0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.960
<v Speaker 4>right now where they simply don't view the world exactly

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.760
<v Speaker 4>in the same way we do. And let me just

0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:21.920
<v Speaker 4>follow it up with one quick sort of personal So

0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 4>when I was eighteen, I went to Germany and I

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.960
<v Speaker 4>had a German girlfriend and I met her mother, and

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.320
<v Speaker 4>she was nice, but she was from the Sudate and

0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.280
<v Speaker 4>Land and driven out after World War Two as a

0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:37.040
<v Speaker 4>young child. And one night she had a couple of

0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:41.240
<v Speaker 4>drinks too many, and she said to me, look, she said,

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:44.080
<v Speaker 4>it was wrong what happened to the Jews, but with

0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:47.000
<v Speaker 4>everything they did, they kind of had something coming to them.

0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.600
<v Speaker 4>And I thought, she's never going to wash it out

0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:53.760
<v Speaker 4>to her head. She's a well educated sixty year old

0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 4>woman and she is never despite all the contradictory evidence

0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.520
<v Speaker 4>and everything, and she's very happy living in a democratic

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:09.360
<v Speaker 4>West Germany. Yet how her views formed in her cognitive years,

0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:12.040
<v Speaker 4>that was depically never going to change. The only way

0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:13.840
<v Speaker 4>it was going to change is like she hasd her

0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:15.119
<v Speaker 4>and her generation had to go.

0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 1>Here's what I would say. I've actually studied a lot

0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:23.400
<v Speaker 1>about propaganda and dehumanization, and you're mostly right about what

0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.120
<v Speaker 1>happens there, except by the way, it's not pathways switched

0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 1>on by propaganda, it's pathways switched off. It turns out

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:31.560
<v Speaker 1>that you can start by asking the question of what

0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.080
<v Speaker 1>is required for pro social behavior, In other words, what

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:37.600
<v Speaker 1>is required for me to care about you and not

0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:40.960
<v Speaker 1>want to see you get hurt? And what is required

0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:44.919
<v Speaker 1>are very particular networks, mostly in the frontal lobe behind

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:49.400
<v Speaker 1>your forehead. These are networks that allow me to understand

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:52.480
<v Speaker 1>you as a fellow human. But it turns out that

0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:57.520
<v Speaker 1>what propaganda does is it suppresses those networks so that

0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:00.480
<v Speaker 1>I come to understand some other group more like an

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:04.879
<v Speaker 1>object rather than another person. And this is the trick

0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:09.119
<v Speaker 1>that all propaganda across place in time uses. Is you

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:14.800
<v Speaker 1>dehumanize by comparing them to for example, animals or viruses.

0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:17.919
<v Speaker 1>Because the interesting thing is I've collected up, for example,

0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.600
<v Speaker 1>propaganda posters from all over the world. They all do this.

0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 1>So I don't know what you were thinking, but whatever

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.440
<v Speaker 1>you were thinking generalizes to everybody. That's the interesting part.

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:30.120
<v Speaker 1>So look American World War One and World War two

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>posters showed the enemy as like a gorilla, or I've

0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:37.920
<v Speaker 1>actually collected quotations from like the Hutu and the Tutsi

0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:43.399
<v Speaker 1>in Rwanda. The Hutu viewed them as rats. That's a

0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:45.879
<v Speaker 1>common one across place in time, viewing them as rats

0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:49.040
<v Speaker 1>or viruses, things like that. Okay, So the point is

0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:51.919
<v Speaker 1>what this does is this turns down these areas, these

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:55.679
<v Speaker 1>networks in the brain that are required to see another

0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:59.440
<v Speaker 1>person as a person. And so what happened. By the way,

0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 1>there are lots of turned this down. Moral pollution is

0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:05.680
<v Speaker 1>one as well, where you associate somebody with something bad

0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:08.879
<v Speaker 1>like pollution or viruses or whatever. There are many ways

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:10.920
<v Speaker 1>to do this, but the point is you don't see

0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 1>them as a human. And that's the power of propaganda

0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.119
<v Speaker 1>and dehumanization. And the reason I study this and give

0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:20.879
<v Speaker 1>talks about this is because once you're aware of these tricks.

0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:23.280
<v Speaker 1>Then it's easier to see them, and so the next time, oh,

0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:26.159
<v Speaker 1>this group is like a virus or like rats or whatever,

0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:28.440
<v Speaker 1>you can think, Okay, well I've seen this trick before.

0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:30.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to allow that to happen. So clearly

0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:33.879
<v Speaker 1>the problem is you're pointing out, for example, what this

0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:36.680
<v Speaker 1>German woman is. Once you come to believe this about

0:19:36.720 --> 0:19:39.520
<v Speaker 1>in groups and out groups, it's not so easy to change. Now,

0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:43.720
<v Speaker 1>people do change. There are really interesting examples of a

0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:47.320
<v Speaker 1>guy who was in the KKKA who changed his view,

0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:49.679
<v Speaker 1>Or there's a young woman who was raised in a

0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:54.240
<v Speaker 1>very strict, kind of awful church environment where she was

0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.679
<v Speaker 1>taught to hate all kinds of groups of people and

0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:59.960
<v Speaker 1>she's really changed her ways. Yeah, these things do happen,

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:03.600
<v Speaker 1>But to your point, it's tough. Once you've been taught

0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 1>how to categorize the world. Those are not the kind

0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.399
<v Speaker 1>of people I hang out with, and they're capable of

0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:12.280
<v Speaker 1>any kind of devious behavior, then that tends to stick.

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:15.560
<v Speaker 2>Do you think that social media and getting everybody in

0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:18.680
<v Speaker 2>to find these communities of people who believe in these

0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:21.439
<v Speaker 2>things has made this worse for us today or has

0:20:21.480 --> 0:20:22.640
<v Speaker 2>it always been the same.

0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.119
<v Speaker 1>I do not think that social media has anything to

0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:28.040
<v Speaker 1>do with this. Actually, for several reasons. One is that

0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:31.040
<v Speaker 1>and you guys must be experts in this part. When

0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:33.680
<v Speaker 1>you look back through history, there is no moment or

0:20:33.680 --> 0:20:36.480
<v Speaker 1>a place where there haven't been conspiracy theories. There was

0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:38.600
<v Speaker 1>a great, big fire that destroyed a lot of Rome

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:41.520
<v Speaker 1>in sixty four CE, and there are all kinds of

0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.399
<v Speaker 1>conspiracy theories about it where people thought, hey, wait, I

0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:49.320
<v Speaker 1>think the Emperor Nero was responsible for the fire because

0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:51.600
<v Speaker 1>he wanted to build this new palace and for that

0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>clear land, and so consequently all these conspiracy theories blossom.

0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:58.639
<v Speaker 4>Nero blamed the Christians, by the way, yeah.

0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly, everyone exactly, and probably it was some random

0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:05.560
<v Speaker 1>spark from whatever, like who knows is ole is cow?

0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:09.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah exactly. And the thing is we'll never know. And

0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:11.000
<v Speaker 1>of course there are no good forensic tools back then.

0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>Some people then couldn't have known, you know, there were

0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:15.800
<v Speaker 1>conspiracy theories. And by the way, this was the same

0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:18.919
<v Speaker 1>thing behind the assassination of Julius Caesar, the death of

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:24.200
<v Speaker 1>Alexander the Great, who actually wanted to ensure that Socrates

0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:27.640
<v Speaker 1>was tried and executed. So as far back as we

0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:31.200
<v Speaker 1>have written history. We have conspiracy theories, so first of all,

0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:35.680
<v Speaker 1>it's not a new thing. But more generally, the idea

0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:39.640
<v Speaker 1>that social media reduces our need for proof, I think

0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:43.520
<v Speaker 1>might be a retrospective romanticization to think that we ever

0:21:43.680 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 1>used to care about proof. For example, we're all old

0:21:46.320 --> 0:21:49.840
<v Speaker 1>enough to remember the pre internet world pretty clearly, and

0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:51.959
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the things that everybody did at

0:21:52.000 --> 0:21:55.959
<v Speaker 1>the time was mailed pamphlets. You know, you subscribed and

0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:58.399
<v Speaker 1>you got pamphlets to our inbox, but it was your

0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:02.840
<v Speaker 1>physical mail in and they were the craziest, you know.

0:22:02.840 --> 0:22:05.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you can get American Nazi Party pamphlets whatever,

0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:08.639
<v Speaker 1>and I've read those, and the idea of proof or

0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:11.200
<v Speaker 1>whatever is the last thing on anybody's mind there. It's

0:22:11.280 --> 0:22:13.720
<v Speaker 1>just the same kind of stuff that you might find now.

0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 2>It may make it easier to weaponize for partisan or

0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:19.679
<v Speaker 2>malign purposes. I mean, the fact that the Russians, for example,

0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:21.880
<v Speaker 2>can pump stuff into our system. They did do that

0:22:22.080 --> 0:22:24.280
<v Speaker 2>for decades and decades, the exact same thing.

0:22:24.680 --> 0:22:25.320
<v Speaker 1>It just is.

0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:26.359
<v Speaker 5>Easier to do it.

0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:29.960
<v Speaker 1>That might be right. I do wonder about this though.

0:22:30.000 --> 0:22:31.400
<v Speaker 1>So I was just talking to someone the other day

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:33.679
<v Speaker 1>who said, who was actually making this argument that the

0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:37.840
<v Speaker 1>Internet is responsible for the proliferation of conspiracy theories because

0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:39.400
<v Speaker 1>it makes it so easy. And I said, okay, look,

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.760
<v Speaker 1>why don't you start a conspiracy theory like that Joe

0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Biden actually has an alien baby and posted on your

0:22:46.800 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 1>Twitter account which has one hundred followers. Do you really

0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:53.199
<v Speaker 1>think this is going to cause the conflagration of a

0:22:53.200 --> 0:22:54.080
<v Speaker 1>conspiracy theory?

0:22:54.119 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 4>You know?

0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:57.119
<v Speaker 2>But the Russians can do is they used to create

0:22:57.160 --> 0:22:59.640
<v Speaker 2>them and try to push them, and usually they didn't catch.

0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:01.960
<v Speaker 2>Sometimes they would. They made up the AIDS crisis that

0:23:02.000 --> 0:23:03.960
<v Speaker 2>was created by the Pentagon, for example, and that one

0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.840
<v Speaker 2>caught and had an effect. Usually they don't. But one

0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:08.160
<v Speaker 2>of the things they can do now is they can

0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:11.879
<v Speaker 2>just monitor bad actors on Twitter and what have you

0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:14.439
<v Speaker 2>on social media and then use bots and things to

0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:17.200
<v Speaker 2>pump that stuff. In other words, it takes this person

0:23:17.240 --> 0:23:19.760
<v Speaker 2>has one hundred followers and pump it fifty million times

0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:21.560
<v Speaker 2>into the system and hope it catches. And they can

0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:23.720
<v Speaker 2>do that over and over and only a few of

0:23:23.720 --> 0:23:25.360
<v Speaker 2>them have to catch to create a problem.

0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:26.840
<v Speaker 5>But you're right, the.

0:23:26.720 --> 0:23:29.040
<v Speaker 2>Fact that our brains take it is the same as

0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:30.080
<v Speaker 2>it's always been.

0:23:30.240 --> 0:23:33.040
<v Speaker 1>So that's really interesting. Glad brought that up because what

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:36.639
<v Speaker 1>that suggests is for a conspiracy theory to catch fire,

0:23:37.200 --> 0:23:39.680
<v Speaker 1>it has to be a good one in a sense.

0:23:39.720 --> 0:23:42.040
<v Speaker 1>So if you post that Joe Biden has an alien

0:23:42.080 --> 0:23:45.040
<v Speaker 1>baby from an alien distress or something, the Russians could

0:23:45.040 --> 0:23:46.960
<v Speaker 1>pump that all they want on their bot farms and

0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:48.560
<v Speaker 1>it wouldn't catch presumaly.

0:23:48.800 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 2>But that fits with our old world, right. So one

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:54.400
<v Speaker 2>of the things that intelligence services do is deception, right.

0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:57.320
<v Speaker 2>So deception is an effort to try to fool people

0:23:57.359 --> 0:24:00.199
<v Speaker 2>to believe something that's not true, and of course that

0:24:00.240 --> 0:24:02.600
<v Speaker 2>works best when you know what the other side wants

0:24:02.680 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 2>to believe. The better you understand the other side's biases,

0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:08.919
<v Speaker 2>the easier is to fool them by giving them a

0:24:08.960 --> 0:24:11.560
<v Speaker 2>piece of what they want to believe, wrapped in something

0:24:11.600 --> 0:24:12.639
<v Speaker 2>that's not true.

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:14.880
<v Speaker 1>But even still, you have to make sure that it's

0:24:14.920 --> 0:24:18.840
<v Speaker 1>a good conspiracy that's just on the edge of possibility.

0:24:19.800 --> 0:24:29.640
<v Speaker 2>Let's take a break, we'll be right back, and we're back.

0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:35.680
<v Speaker 4>I have a question about cognitive dissonance in a ways

0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:39.080
<v Speaker 4>touches on my own family and how we process information.

0:24:39.520 --> 0:24:43.239
<v Speaker 4>So Alex Jones on his show, he goes on and

0:24:43.280 --> 0:24:49.840
<v Speaker 4>he sells things like super male vitality drops and lung

0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:54.880
<v Speaker 4>cleansing plus spray with no FDA approval. Nobody knows what's

0:24:54.920 --> 0:24:58.439
<v Speaker 4>in this, and people buy millions of dollars of this

0:24:58.480 --> 0:25:03.359
<v Speaker 4>stuff the same time, and often these very same people

0:25:03.840 --> 0:25:08.480
<v Speaker 4>are mistrustful of the entire medical community, tens or even

0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:13.880
<v Speaker 4>hundreds of thousands of medical professionals who have dedicating their

0:25:14.000 --> 0:25:17.479
<v Speaker 4>lives to saving people, and who they many of them know,

0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:20.440
<v Speaker 4>like they know their doctor or surgeon and things like that,

0:25:20.800 --> 0:25:25.639
<v Speaker 4>and yet on COVID vaccines they don't buy it. You know,

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:30.440
<v Speaker 4>It's like, no, the entire medical establishment is unethical. Although

0:25:30.680 --> 0:25:34.400
<v Speaker 4>the super male vitality drops, they're fine, right, I'll put

0:25:34.440 --> 0:25:37.160
<v Speaker 4>those in my body. And yet at the same time,

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:41.360
<v Speaker 4>their kid gets sick with cancer, and those same doctors

0:25:41.359 --> 0:25:44.320
<v Speaker 4>who they think are unethical and they don't trust, come

0:25:44.400 --> 0:25:46.760
<v Speaker 4>to them and say, I'm going to have to put

0:25:46.920 --> 0:25:51.199
<v Speaker 4>poison in your kid's body chemotherarap just enough poison to

0:25:51.359 --> 0:25:53.400
<v Speaker 4>kill the cancer, but it's going to make your kid

0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:56.199
<v Speaker 4>really sick, but it could save them. And none of

0:25:56.200 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 4>those people, I'll bet you zero, say WHOA. I want

0:26:00.640 --> 0:26:03.399
<v Speaker 4>to know exactly what's in that stuff, right, they're going

0:26:03.480 --> 0:26:06.000
<v Speaker 4>to say, if you can save them, do it. So

0:26:06.240 --> 0:26:11.440
<v Speaker 4>they're conflicting and completely, I think, irreconcilable. So how does

0:26:11.480 --> 0:26:14.840
<v Speaker 4>the brain work that it functions as a unified hole

0:26:15.160 --> 0:26:17.520
<v Speaker 4>despite this and with real consequences.

0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:20.760
<v Speaker 1>The general story is that the brain is perfectly happy

0:26:20.760 --> 0:26:24.399
<v Speaker 1>to hold contradictions and behavior all the time. I mentioned

0:26:24.400 --> 0:26:26.480
<v Speaker 1>earlier that the brain is made up of a team

0:26:26.520 --> 0:26:28.520
<v Speaker 1>of rivals, by which I mean you've got all these

0:26:28.560 --> 0:26:31.920
<v Speaker 1>different networks that want different things at different times. And

0:26:32.000 --> 0:26:35.119
<v Speaker 1>think of it like a neural parliament. In a parliament

0:26:35.119 --> 0:26:38.160
<v Speaker 1>in a country, You've got all these different political parties

0:26:38.160 --> 0:26:41.960
<v Speaker 1>with different drives. They want different things to happen. They

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:44.399
<v Speaker 1>all love their country, they just have different opinions on

0:26:44.480 --> 0:26:47.120
<v Speaker 1>what the right moves are. And this is exactly what's

0:26:47.160 --> 0:26:49.000
<v Speaker 1>going on with the brain. So for example, if I

0:26:49.040 --> 0:26:51.119
<v Speaker 1>put some warm chocolate chip cookies in front of you,

0:26:51.160 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 1>party brain wants to eat that. It's a rich energy source.

0:26:53.560 --> 0:26:55.920
<v Speaker 1>Party of brain says, don't eat it, you'll get fat.

0:26:56.000 --> 0:26:58.000
<v Speaker 1>Party brain says, Okay, I'll eat it, but I'll go

0:26:58.040 --> 0:27:00.399
<v Speaker 1>to the gym tonight. You can argue with yourself, you

0:27:00.480 --> 0:27:03.560
<v Speaker 1>can cuss it yourself, you can cajole who is talking

0:27:03.600 --> 0:27:06.160
<v Speaker 1>to whom? Here? Right? It's all you, but it's different

0:27:06.240 --> 0:27:10.760
<v Speaker 1>parts of you. And that's why we constantly hold contradictory

0:27:11.200 --> 0:27:14.360
<v Speaker 1>information or ways of being in our heads. But it's

0:27:14.359 --> 0:27:16.800
<v Speaker 1>easy to say you don't trust the medical system when

0:27:16.840 --> 0:27:19.160
<v Speaker 1>you've got a cold or something, but when something has

0:27:19.200 --> 0:27:22.600
<v Speaker 1>really gotten serious, then you might change your view on that.

0:27:23.200 --> 0:27:28.560
<v Speaker 4>Is it often a response to anxiety fear. So if

0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:34.320
<v Speaker 4>a society is unsettled, anxious, or made that way, does

0:27:34.359 --> 0:27:35.639
<v Speaker 4>that cause more conspiracy?

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:36.000
<v Speaker 1>John?

0:27:36.040 --> 0:27:38.120
<v Speaker 4>I mean, you know the Serbs really well. You spend

0:27:38.160 --> 0:27:42.160
<v Speaker 4>a lot of time in Yugoslavia. I think Melosovich created

0:27:42.240 --> 0:27:47.000
<v Speaker 4>anxiety amongst the Serve population that made them more likely

0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:48.320
<v Speaker 4>to believe conspiracy theories.

0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:50.440
<v Speaker 2>And again you can it's very easy to use the other.

0:27:50.600 --> 0:27:53.680
<v Speaker 2>And so the thing in the former Yugoslavia is Serbia

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:56.879
<v Speaker 2>with they weren't the majority of the ethnic population, but

0:27:56.920 --> 0:27:59.440
<v Speaker 2>they were the largest of the minority. So right, so

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:02.520
<v Speaker 2>they would say forty percent of former Yugoslavia was serving.

0:28:02.560 --> 0:28:05.439
<v Speaker 2>So the Slovenes and the Croats and the Montenegrins and

0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:09.600
<v Speaker 2>Kosovars and others were smaller groups. And so when the

0:28:09.600 --> 0:28:13.199
<v Speaker 2>biggest group the Serbs claimed that they were the victims

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:17.000
<v Speaker 2>of those smaller groups coming after them. It scared the

0:28:17.000 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 2>other groups, right, So the most powerful and biggest group

0:28:20.320 --> 0:28:22.880
<v Speaker 2>was claiming to be the victim and that therefore they

0:28:22.880 --> 0:28:26.680
<v Speaker 2>could act with impunity. So Meloswitch was very good at

0:28:27.080 --> 0:28:29.199
<v Speaker 2>He knew communism was falling apart. He knew that he

0:28:29.240 --> 0:28:33.000
<v Speaker 2>had to grasp onto nationalism, and therefore he used that

0:28:33.119 --> 0:28:36.399
<v Speaker 2>victimhood for him, but probably without realizing that it was

0:28:36.440 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 2>going to create fear in the other ethnic group and

0:28:39.560 --> 0:28:42.240
<v Speaker 2>created what became a nasty, horrible civil war.

0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:46.480
<v Speaker 4>And so the question is, can you create the preconditions

0:28:46.520 --> 0:28:50.400
<v Speaker 4>for people to believe conspiracy theories by making people afraid

0:28:50.440 --> 0:28:51.520
<v Speaker 4>and making them anxious.

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:54.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that's fascinating that. On the individual level.

0:28:55.480 --> 0:28:58.120
<v Speaker 1>One of the things that brains do all the time

0:28:58.360 --> 0:29:00.920
<v Speaker 1>is threat detection. This is the most important jobs of

0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:05.479
<v Speaker 1>the brain. And when you are sensing that there's trouble

0:29:05.600 --> 0:29:09.280
<v Speaker 1>or something's happening, you've got the sort of special network

0:29:09.280 --> 0:29:12.040
<v Speaker 1>in your brain center at the amygdala, which is an

0:29:12.040 --> 0:29:14.720
<v Speaker 1>emergency control center that says, Okay, look, there's some threat

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:17.120
<v Speaker 1>going on. I really need to rev everything up and

0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:22.440
<v Speaker 1>operate with heightened suspicion and vigilance. And there's one related thing,

0:29:22.440 --> 0:29:25.240
<v Speaker 1>which is another thing that brains do is agency detection,

0:29:25.400 --> 0:29:28.720
<v Speaker 1>which is, hey, something just happened. Was there somebody behind this?

0:29:28.920 --> 0:29:32.360
<v Speaker 1>Was there some group, some person behind this? Is my

0:29:32.480 --> 0:29:35.480
<v Speaker 1>phone missing because I put it somewhere stupid? Or is

0:29:35.560 --> 0:29:39.520
<v Speaker 1>there somebody behind my phone being missing here? And so

0:29:39.720 --> 0:29:41.920
<v Speaker 1>these are natural things that the brains are always doing.

0:29:41.960 --> 0:29:45.360
<v Speaker 1>And to your point, these things can be cranked up

0:29:45.920 --> 0:29:49.400
<v Speaker 1>if the message from the government is look, there are

0:29:49.400 --> 0:29:52.760
<v Speaker 1>threats all around you. There are people doing shadowy things

0:29:52.800 --> 0:29:56.400
<v Speaker 1>around you. I have a hypothesis that I don't think

0:29:56.440 --> 0:29:59.040
<v Speaker 1>there's any way for me to prove at the moment,

0:29:59.080 --> 0:30:01.920
<v Speaker 1>but I know I noticed, starting in about twenty twenty,

0:30:02.840 --> 0:30:09.240
<v Speaker 1>right after COVID hit, conspiracy theories seemed to become more popular. Now,

0:30:09.240 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 1>I'd be really curious before I go on, what do

0:30:11.520 --> 0:30:13.280
<v Speaker 1>you guys think? Do you think they actually became slight

0:30:13.320 --> 0:30:14.600
<v Speaker 1>more popular in twenty twenty?

0:30:14.760 --> 0:30:17.000
<v Speaker 2>That's a good question, I think. So was it a

0:30:17.000 --> 0:30:18.880
<v Speaker 2>form of entertainment while we were staying at home? I

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:20.000
<v Speaker 2>don't know what the answer to that.

0:30:20.600 --> 0:30:23.440
<v Speaker 1>Okay, So I have a hypothesis. What I in my

0:30:23.560 --> 0:30:26.800
<v Speaker 1>lab call an idiothesis, which is an idiotic hypothesis. But

0:30:27.120 --> 0:30:29.360
<v Speaker 1>here's what I think it is. So I mentioned earlier

0:30:29.360 --> 0:30:31.720
<v Speaker 1>that your brain's job is to make an internal model

0:30:31.760 --> 0:30:33.680
<v Speaker 1>of the world, and typically we're pretty good at that.

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:36.400
<v Speaker 1>We say, look, I know how politics were on, how

0:30:36.440 --> 0:30:39.120
<v Speaker 1>people act, that sort of thing. But what happened in

0:30:39.120 --> 0:30:42.720
<v Speaker 1>March of twenty twenty is that suddenly all bets were off,

0:30:42.800 --> 0:30:47.080
<v Speaker 1>Suddenly the society shut down, and we didn't know what

0:30:47.240 --> 0:30:51.160
<v Speaker 1>was going on. And what appears to me to happen

0:30:51.480 --> 0:30:56.000
<v Speaker 1>is that the brain makes farther and farther reaches for

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:59.120
<v Speaker 1>explanatory framework. And just as an example, I don't know

0:30:59.160 --> 0:31:01.560
<v Speaker 1>if you can really put yourself back in March or

0:31:01.600 --> 0:31:03.720
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty, let's say late March or early April, but

0:31:04.480 --> 0:31:07.880
<v Speaker 1>what I noticed is that people would read one article

0:31:07.920 --> 0:31:10.120
<v Speaker 1>that said this is all going to be over within

0:31:10.160 --> 0:31:12.200
<v Speaker 1>a week, and they said, okay, got it, I can

0:31:12.240 --> 0:31:14.320
<v Speaker 1>repeat the arguments. I got this. And then the very

0:31:14.320 --> 0:31:16.600
<v Speaker 1>next article you read says, wow, this is going to

0:31:16.640 --> 0:31:19.400
<v Speaker 1>go on for years and hundreds of thousands or millions

0:31:19.440 --> 0:31:21.800
<v Speaker 1>will die, and you read it and you think, okay,

0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:23.880
<v Speaker 1>that's convincing, and okay, I got it and you can

0:31:23.920 --> 0:31:27.000
<v Speaker 1>repeat that. And so I just noticed that for all

0:31:27.080 --> 0:31:29.040
<v Speaker 1>of us, we were going back and forth on our

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:32.840
<v Speaker 1>frameworks for everything. And that's my idiothesis on why I

0:31:32.880 --> 0:31:37.440
<v Speaker 1>think conspiracy theory has got more popular when our prediction

0:31:37.760 --> 0:31:42.440
<v Speaker 1>abilities were frayed by the pandemic and we just weren't

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 1>able to make good predictions anymore. Then it certainly seems

0:31:45.920 --> 0:31:47.800
<v Speaker 1>to me that if you are in a country and

0:31:47.840 --> 0:31:51.720
<v Speaker 1>you're trying to make the population more anxious, nervous and

0:31:51.760 --> 0:31:55.080
<v Speaker 1>crank up their threat detection, possibly their agency detection, another

0:31:55.200 --> 0:31:58.360
<v Speaker 1>piece would be just making it so that their brains

0:31:58.360 --> 0:32:00.880
<v Speaker 1>aren't good prediction machines and they feel like, Wow, I

0:32:00.960 --> 0:32:03.440
<v Speaker 1>need a better framework to hang on to, and this

0:32:03.520 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 1>guy is offering me a framework that gives me a

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 1>really good stable foundation.

0:32:08.640 --> 0:32:10.120
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you're describing North Korea.

0:32:10.360 --> 0:32:13.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, quick questions. We have talked a lot about how

0:32:14.120 --> 0:32:18.200
<v Speaker 2>the brain and societies get us into thinking about conspiracies.

0:32:18.200 --> 0:32:20.200
<v Speaker 2>How do we get into conspiracies, how do people get

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:22.040
<v Speaker 2>caught up in them? How do we get out?

0:32:22.440 --> 0:32:25.000
<v Speaker 1>I'll tell you, I think the most important part is

0:32:25.120 --> 0:32:31.040
<v Speaker 1>making just a scientific assessment of the likelihoods of things,

0:32:31.040 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 1>so all of us might get fooled someday where somebody

0:32:35.600 --> 0:32:37.520
<v Speaker 1>is doing conspiracy theory and we think, oh, we know

0:32:37.560 --> 0:32:39.960
<v Speaker 1>what the right answer is. Maybe there are conspiracy theories

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:42.360
<v Speaker 1>that happen tame ones, maybe that happen in the world.

0:32:42.520 --> 0:32:46.160
<v Speaker 1>Who knows, but it probably makes sense to always make

0:32:46.200 --> 0:32:48.920
<v Speaker 1>sure that we're asking what are the chances. So I'll

0:32:48.920 --> 0:32:52.080
<v Speaker 1>give an example. Take the moon landing. Apparently there's still

0:32:52.080 --> 0:32:54.000
<v Speaker 1>some people who say it was done in a production

0:32:54.080 --> 0:32:56.040
<v Speaker 1>studio and we didn't actually land on the Moon. Now,

0:32:56.280 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 1>obviously that's not true, because I actually knew Neil arms Strong,

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:02.000
<v Speaker 1>and one of the things he had done was put

0:33:02.040 --> 0:33:03.720
<v Speaker 1>a mirror on the Moon so you could bounce the

0:33:03.760 --> 0:33:06.520
<v Speaker 1>laser off its so you could do ranging and find

0:33:06.520 --> 0:33:07.880
<v Speaker 1>the exact distance of the Moon anyway, so you can

0:33:07.920 --> 0:33:11.000
<v Speaker 1>prove to yourself it's not. But anyway, let's imagine that

0:33:11.120 --> 0:33:14.120
<v Speaker 1>you thought, I wonder if the moon landing is a conspiracy.

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 1>The key is how many people would have had to

0:33:16.880 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 1>be involved, presumably everybody at NASA, the president, the thousands

0:33:21.360 --> 0:33:23.840
<v Speaker 1>of news broadcast whatever like. Lots of people would have

0:33:23.920 --> 0:33:26.880
<v Speaker 1>to be involved in that. And the question is how

0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:30.240
<v Speaker 1>long can a secret be kept? And the fact is

0:33:30.680 --> 0:33:32.520
<v Speaker 1>that if a bunch of people are holding onto a

0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:35.520
<v Speaker 1>secret every day, there's some chance that's going to spill out,

0:33:35.560 --> 0:33:39.120
<v Speaker 1>either because someone gets drunk or they have a religious

0:33:39.120 --> 0:33:41.680
<v Speaker 1>conversion or you know, spasm of guilt or whatever and

0:33:41.720 --> 0:33:43.880
<v Speaker 1>they decide I'm going to do this. But also it

0:33:43.920 --> 0:33:46.800
<v Speaker 1>should be noted from a game theory perspective, there's a

0:33:46.840 --> 0:33:50.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of reward if you're the defector. If you think, okay, look,

0:33:50.840 --> 0:33:52.920
<v Speaker 1>somebody on this team of one hundred people is going

0:33:52.920 --> 0:33:54.760
<v Speaker 1>to defect at some point, and I'm going to end

0:33:54.800 --> 0:33:56.000
<v Speaker 1>up in jail for the rest of my life. But

0:33:56.000 --> 0:33:58.440
<v Speaker 1>if I'm the defector, then I get the New York

0:33:58.480 --> 0:34:01.560
<v Speaker 1>Times bestselling book, and I get to be on CNN

0:34:01.640 --> 0:34:03.600
<v Speaker 1>every day talking about this thing. And so there's all

0:34:03.640 --> 0:34:06.160
<v Speaker 1>kinds of rewards from me and the guy who I was.

0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:08.080
<v Speaker 2>In CIA for thirty years. If I knew that we

0:34:08.120 --> 0:34:10.719
<v Speaker 2>did the JFK assassination, like some people claim, I would

0:34:10.760 --> 0:34:13.200
<v Speaker 2>be out on the rooftop screaming.

0:34:12.960 --> 0:34:16.120
<v Speaker 1>Exactly, you'd write a book, You'd be super famous for it. Yeah, exactly.

0:34:16.360 --> 0:34:17.960
<v Speaker 1>Let's imagine you say, okay, well, if these are a

0:34:18.000 --> 0:34:21.760
<v Speaker 1>bunch of really tough people who who aren't going to defect,

0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:24.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, just somebody getting drunk, like the woman from

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:27.000
<v Speaker 1>Germany or whatever. What are the chances each day? And

0:34:27.040 --> 0:34:29.600
<v Speaker 1>if you multiply that over a year, over twenty years,

0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:33.120
<v Speaker 1>at some point you have to allow that mathematically, this

0:34:33.160 --> 0:34:36.080
<v Speaker 1>isn't really making sense anymore. Also, I think that even

0:34:36.120 --> 0:34:40.000
<v Speaker 1>if you imagine some really tough guys who pulled off

0:34:40.000 --> 0:34:43.400
<v Speaker 1>a moon conspiracy theory, their sun or their gen Z

0:34:43.800 --> 0:34:46.839
<v Speaker 1>grand child is going to say, oh my god, look

0:34:46.840 --> 0:34:49.280
<v Speaker 1>what I found in the attic and some so anyway,

0:34:49.600 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 1>I think that it's probably useful to just take a

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:56.879
<v Speaker 1>scientific lens on any conspiracy theory and ask what are

0:34:56.960 --> 0:34:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the chances.

0:34:57.880 --> 0:35:00.920
<v Speaker 2>So it seems you're saying like data and logic can

0:35:00.960 --> 0:35:03.160
<v Speaker 2>help somebody pull out of that, But data and logic

0:35:03.160 --> 0:35:05.560
<v Speaker 2>didn't get them into that viewpoint. I could come to

0:35:05.600 --> 0:35:08.320
<v Speaker 2>them with logic, but I don't know that logic works

0:35:08.320 --> 0:35:10.480
<v Speaker 2>on them unless they all of a sudden now they

0:35:10.520 --> 0:35:12.839
<v Speaker 2>are ready to get out of it. And I don't

0:35:12.840 --> 0:35:14.240
<v Speaker 2>know how people get to that phase.

0:35:14.760 --> 0:35:16.920
<v Speaker 1>So I agree with that. Okay, for all these points

0:35:16.920 --> 0:35:19.480
<v Speaker 1>that we touched on during this episode, I think it's

0:35:19.600 --> 0:35:21.359
<v Speaker 1>unlikely that you'll be able to talk to someone out

0:35:21.360 --> 0:35:23.960
<v Speaker 1>of it. Why, there's the social component, which is they're

0:35:23.960 --> 0:35:27.279
<v Speaker 1>getting something out of it. And if you engage with

0:35:27.320 --> 0:35:30.200
<v Speaker 1>them and say, hey, let's argue this out whatever, it's

0:35:30.320 --> 0:35:32.600
<v Speaker 1>joyful to them. They're having a great time argue with you,

0:35:32.680 --> 0:35:35.120
<v Speaker 1>and they leave feeling smarter and they say, oh, I

0:35:35.160 --> 0:35:37.640
<v Speaker 1>talk to these guys. We got this podcast, and I

0:35:37.680 --> 0:35:39.319
<v Speaker 1>told them, you know, I was able to hold my

0:35:39.440 --> 0:35:40.279
<v Speaker 1>position on this.

0:35:40.800 --> 0:35:42.399
<v Speaker 4>It was really fun talking to you man.

0:35:42.520 --> 0:35:44.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, David, thank you so much for spending time as

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<v Speaker 2>it was really enlightening and we can't thank you enough.

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<v Speaker 1>It was blast talking with you guys. Thanks very much.

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<v Speaker 2>We will see you next time on a Mission implausible.

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<v Speaker 6>Mission Implausible is produced by Adam Davidson, Jerry O'Shea, John Seipher,

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<v Speaker 6>and Jonathan Sterner. The associate producer is Rachel Harner. Mission

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<v Speaker 6>Implausible is a production of honorable Mention and abominable pictures

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<v Speaker 6>for iHeart Podcasts.