1 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. 2 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe. So, Joe, you know 3 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: what I like to do during uncertain times, times of trouble. 4 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: Play with your dog, play with your puppy. Yes, but 5 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: that's a relatively new development. Um, But for a long time, 6 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: I really like reading history books whenever the world seems 7 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: a little bit crazy. I like going back in time 8 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: and finding other moments where things seem just as crazy. See. 9 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: I like stress eating when I when the world is 10 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: really bad. Yeah, stress eating is also enjoyable. But the 11 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: reason I bring it up is because in the current 12 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: situation we've seen the coronavirus pandemic, there are a lot 13 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 1: out of historic parallels to this particular outbreak. So almost 14 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: immediately when this whole thing started, people started reaching back 15 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: to the Black Death of the Middle Ages. We also 16 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: had people talking about parallels with the Spanish influenza pandemic 17 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: of nineteen eighteen. Lots of people looking at history to 18 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: try to figure out what's going on right now and 19 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: what the economy might actually look like once this outbreak 20 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: has subsided. Yeah, that's exactly right, Especially um, the Spanish flue, 21 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: the Spanish influenza of nineteen eighteen. It's been numerous stories 22 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: about that. I guess because maybe of all the different 23 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: like sort of like pandemics we've had in the past, 24 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: we probably have this sort of you know, most accurate 25 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: recollection of like what the medical experts were saying at 26 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: the time. Of course, everyone's seen those charts of the 27 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 1: second wave of the Spanish flu, so of all the 28 00:01:57,840 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: you know, lots of but as you say, lots of 29 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: attempt to look at history to figure out what they 30 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: mean for the president, right, and whenever we talk about 31 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: financial history, Uh, there's one guess that we really like 32 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: to have on. We're going to have him on again. 33 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: It's Jamie Cather would a k. A finance history guy 34 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: from O'Shaughnessy Asset Management. He also runs a website called 35 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: investor Amnesia dot com. We've had him on before. We're 36 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: going to have them on again to walk us through 37 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: what we can learn from previous outbreaks or pandemics and 38 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: what they tell us about the current situation. So Jamie, 39 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: thanks so much for coming on. Thank you so much 40 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: for having me back. So Jamie, maybe to begin with, 41 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 1: you know, Joe mentioned that a lot of people have 42 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 1: been focusing on the Spanish influenza pandemic of nineteen in particular, 43 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: But is there one moment in history that you've focused 44 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: on in your readings and um, and you're studying of 45 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: this topic, one moment of history that is the most 46 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: relevant to our current situation. Um So, I think that, 47 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: like you guys talked about, there's a lot of people 48 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: going back to both the Black Death and the Spanish Flu. 49 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 1: There's a lot of other kind of epidemics and pandemics 50 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: and history that are also interesting, but they're all really different, 51 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 1: including the Spanish flu. It's fairly different in terms of 52 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: just the disease, but also kind of the time it 53 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 1: occurred in versus today. So I think there are a 54 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: lot of differences more than similarities. But there are some 55 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 1: interesting trends in both today and the Spanish flu that 56 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: are similar. And one that I found really interesting was 57 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: just there is a paper that talked about the Amazon 58 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: effects that occurred in the Spanish flu, which sounds crazy, 59 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: but um, we've all talked about how kind of sears 60 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: was the original Amazon and there was evidence I think 61 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: it isn't a Federal Reserve paper that showed on a 62 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: monthly basis during in the second wave that was in 63 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: the fall, which is the worst of the three waves. 64 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: That the sales and business activity for Sears, Roebuck and 65 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: montgomer Reward, which had mail order catalogs, increased in the 66 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: worst months of the Spanish flu when more places were 67 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: shut and kind of lockdown was taking place, and then 68 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,359 Speaker 1: as the economy started to reopen again, sales started to 69 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: decline back to normal levels. But there's like the spike 70 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: when people were at home or of ordering through these 71 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: mail order catalogs, just like today everyone orders from Amazon 72 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: while they're kind hunkered down at home. So if if 73 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 1: if the Sears catalog was the Amazon of that, what's 74 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 1: what was the peloton of that crisis? I can't even imagine. 75 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: I feel like there's some ridiculous contraction that you see 76 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,720 Speaker 1: like some elastic band's workout machine or something. No. No. 77 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: But there's a lot of kind of anecdotes like that 78 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 1: which are just very reminiscent of today. There were things 79 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: like retail foot traffic was down in some areas. But 80 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: what was interesting is that then after the kind reopening 81 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 1: started to occur, that the some some retailers not all 82 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: obviously reported that the kind of bounced back after the 83 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 1: reopening made up for more than like the sales from 84 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: when their business had to be shut down, So that 85 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: was kind of interesting. Well, we should note on that note, 86 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: since you brought up retail sales, that we are recording 87 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 1: this on June at um now about nine in the 88 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: morning and just half an hour ago today we got 89 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 1: the retail sales for May and they came in way 90 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: better than expected. They basically come in came in double 91 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: on on a month over month basis, about double what 92 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 1: people were expecting. So as long as we're talking about 93 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: the sort of eco side, the pent up demand equivalent 94 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: of the Spanish Blue, this month's retail sales report would 95 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: bear out once again a sort of similarity. And it's 96 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 1: interesting to see kind of today and in the Spanish Blue, 97 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: the different industries and types of retailers that did well 98 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 1: and which ones didn't like today and you see Zoom 99 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: and other companies like that. Clorox stock was rocketing for 100 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: a while, but in Spanish Flu the Federal Reserved paper 101 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: showed that mattress sales actually increased something ridiculous like or 102 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: something because bed rest was such a commonly prescribed like 103 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 1: cure by doctors for people who had symptoms, and so 104 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: people were just going out and buying mattresses because that 105 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 1: was what doctors were telling to do, is just stay 106 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: at home, you know, at bed rest. And so randomly 107 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 1: the mattress industry did very well, while other like retail groceries, um, 108 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: they dropped like a third. And then there were a 109 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: lot of other businesses and kind of towns in Arkansas, 110 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: which is what the Federal Reserve paper focused on, which 111 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 1: some of their business dropped like se So I'm curious 112 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 1: and you've touched on this already, but once the Spanish 113 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: flu sort of fell away, once the pandemic ended, did 114 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: we see the economy bounced back, corporate profits bounced back 115 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: and make up the lost income that had occurred during 116 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: the outbreak or was there sort of a permanent hit 117 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: two output. So the problem with this period is like 118 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: there's not as great economic data as you would think, 119 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: which is frustrating obviously because at a time with this 120 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: everyone's looking back to find the economic data. There is some, 121 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: but from what I've read, the effect of the Spanish 122 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: flu was pronounced, but it was over the short term 123 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: and then there was a fairly quick bounce back. Um 124 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: as I said, like some of the examples of retailers 125 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: saying that the business boom once they could reopen made 126 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 1: up for the losses incurred during the kind of lockdown. 127 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 1: And there were some businesses that actually reported a increase 128 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: over the prior year in sales, which was remarkable. But 129 00:07:57,600 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: the economy kind of bounced back. But also you have 130 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: to keep in mind of how much that was due 131 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: to the Spanish flu and how much was due to 132 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: the war ending. But bounce back was kind of short 133 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: lived in itself, because in you then had a recession, 134 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: but in terms of the Spanish flu impact, it seemed 135 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: to be harsh but short lived, and the bounce back 136 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: was pretty swift. Was there any like did they do 137 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: any stimulus or anything like? Was there any economic policy 138 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: to counter the effect? I mean, one of the things 139 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: that's been striking that a lot of people have cited 140 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 1: for the surprising resilience of the economy and the market 141 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: during this crisis is just the degree to which policymakers 142 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: moved extremely fast, perhaps having learned some of the lessons 143 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: of the Greek recession about a decade ago. Was there 144 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: a economic policy response. Uh that time around, You know, 145 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: there could have been, not from what I've read. I've 146 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: read a number of papers on this, and I don't 147 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:02,559 Speaker 1: recall seeing there was. It wasn't pronounced enough to be 148 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: kind of prevalent throughout the research that I've read. Yeah, Tracy, 149 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: it's interesting and speaking of history, how often economic stabilization 150 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: measures that we sort of take for granted as making 151 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 1: sense in it a downturn, more spending, lower rates, etcetera. 152 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: Like they just didn't know anything back of the day. 153 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: Like it's a crazy reading back of like past prices. 154 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: How like clueless policy makers looked relative to the sort 155 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: of conventional wisdom today about what you need to bounce back. 156 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: It's always stands out to me when reading about past crises. 157 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: I didn't know anything. I mean, I guess it depends 158 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: how far back in history you go. The Romans were 159 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: pretty good at that stimulus. But okay, we're gonna get 160 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: off track. I do want to go slightly further back 161 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: and talk about, um, the Middle Ages, the Black Death 162 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: aka the Great Plague. A lot of people have been 163 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,079 Speaker 1: looking at that one and talking about the labor market. 164 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: What might happen to wages and inflation. And I've seen 165 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: different theories on this. So one explanation says that after 166 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: the Great Death, so many people died that there was 167 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: a shortage of labor and wages eventually went up. But 168 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: I've heard other people say that one of the reasons 169 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: wages went up is basically a bunch of the peasants 170 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: revolted and sort of violently forced better earnings for themselves. 171 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: What have you learned so far, Jamie, Like what do 172 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 1: your readings tell you on that topic? And if you survived, 173 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: then in terms of the Black Death, everything came up 174 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:51,599 Speaker 1: peasants like it was a great time to be a 175 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: peasant after the Black Death because like you mentioned, as 176 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: you mentioned there there is a lot of disagreement over 177 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: which is crazy to think about it, like something that 178 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: happened hundreds of years ago, and there's still so much 179 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 1: disagreement among like economic historians of what happened. But from 180 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: what I've read, there seems to be a agreement that 181 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:16,439 Speaker 1: there was a rise in wages after the Black Death because, 182 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 1: as you mentioned, so many people died, and to put 183 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: some numbers around it, the estimates are between seventeen and 184 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 1: twenty eight million Europeans and the Black Death was from 185 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: thirteen seven to thirteen fifty three. And what made it 186 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: actually so pronounced in its impact was the fact that 187 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: there wasn't one isolated outbreak. It kept coming back in 188 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 1: waves for decades. I think Britain experienced thirty different outbreaks 189 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: of the play between thirteen three in like thirteen I 190 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,079 Speaker 1: can't it was like fifty year period. Basically there is 191 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: an outbreak every four years of the play. So it 192 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: just kept coming back, like every time they thought that 193 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: they were done with it, it would just come back, 194 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: and each time it was less was less severe, but 195 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: I mean still was the plague and it was killing 196 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 1: off people. So it just kept coming back all over year. 197 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: But in England it was basically every four years. But 198 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 1: as you mentioned, Tracy, because so many people had died. 199 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 1: What happened was that suddenly all these lords who had 200 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: previously seen over these manner systems where the peasants were 201 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 1: working the land and the lord would collect rent um 202 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: views from the peasants, they suddenly faced this problem where 203 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 1: they had all this land previously was a good thing, 204 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: but suddenly now there weren't as many peasants to work. 205 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: Until the land, so the peasants were able to demand 206 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: higher wages, and also they had the ability to kind 207 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: of shop around their services to other lords, which previously 208 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 1: wouldn't have been the case. But because every lord was 209 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: so desperate to hire people to work their land that 210 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: if the lord a peasant was currently working for it 211 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: didn't offer them better working conditions, living conditions, and wages, 212 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,959 Speaker 1: then they could just go to another lord who would 213 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: be willing to offer them those um conditions. So for 214 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:11,959 Speaker 1: the peasant and other kind of jobs related to agriculture, 215 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: which outside of the city, nine out of every ten 216 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: people were making a living related to working with soil 217 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 1: in this period, which is crazy, they could go and 218 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: get higher wages. And there was one example of like 219 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 1: a plowman who in thirteen he was making two shillings 220 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 1: a week, and then thirteen forty nine he was making 221 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: three shillings a week. Then in thirteen fifty his wages 222 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 1: had grown to ten shillings a week. So yeah, you can, 223 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: and that's just like one example of many. The Fed's 224 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 1: got to raise rates that kind of wage grow the 225 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: ECB of the ECB high grade. But you know, I 226 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,079 Speaker 1: didn't realize until you said it just now that there 227 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 1: were so many ways. But now I'm looking at like, 228 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: you know, I'm looking at the Wikipedia page of the 229 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: Black Death. It's funny, there's almost no way to talk 230 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: about old timey things without automatically sort of superimposing modern 231 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 1: conceptions of how the economy worked back onto them. Like 232 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I joke about the E SPP graz and grades. 233 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: Obviously there was no ECB of but I you know, 234 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: my first question, like the first thing that comes to 235 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: my mind is like that has to be like really 236 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: bad form business capital expenditure plans, because who wants to 237 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: like plan for the future when there's so much uncertainty 238 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: about the next time the Black Death is going to 239 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: come along. Well, there was no ECB, but they did 240 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: try and control wages, which I'll get too in a second. Overall, 241 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: so that was one stark example of the guy quintuple 242 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: in his weekly wages in like two years. But overall, 243 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: the estimates are that wages rose between twenty and from 244 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: the thirteen forties to the thirteen sixties. Again pretty pronounced. 245 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: But one thing that was a counter to this rise 246 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: in nominal wages was there was a pre substantial rise 247 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: in inflation because the gold and silver supply remain constant, 248 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: but the amount of people decimated, so there was just 249 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 1: a higher ratio of gold and silver per capita, So 250 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: much of those kind of nominal weekly wage gains were 251 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: offset by this inflation. But to Joe's point about ECB 252 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 1: or some regulatory authority trying to control things, there was 253 00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: obviously a lot of There were a lot of upset 254 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: lords because they didn't want to deal with these peasants 255 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 1: who were suddenly cocky and knew that they had kind 256 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: of had leverage in this situation. And there are all 257 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: of these lords who were complaining about peasants who would 258 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: barely do any work, like they would make a huge 259 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: fuss about being asked to do anything, and if they 260 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: did do jobs that they were doing haphazardly because they 261 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: just knew that the lord wouldn't be able to find 262 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 1: a replacement for them. So the lords tried to lobby 263 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: the youth authorities to do something about this problem, and 264 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: what ended up happening was the government put out two 265 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: statutes in thirteen forty nine and thirteen fifty one. In 266 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: thirteen forty nine, there was the Ordinance of Laborers and 267 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: then the Statute of Laborers in thirteen fifty one, which 268 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: both were aimed at pertailing wages, and they both stipulated 269 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: that wages for peasants had to be set at pre 270 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: plague levels, and again that was to kind of address 271 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: this situation where people were quickly getting five times what 272 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: they were making before the plague. And there are also 273 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: rules that the peasant couldn't leave and kind of shop 274 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: around his services to other lords, again to prevent this 275 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: issue of people leaving in manners being left or lords 276 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: being left with no one to till their manners. So 277 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: there was no interest rate policy or anything, but there 278 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: is definitely statutes put in place to try and prevent 279 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 1: the wage growth from spiraling out of control. Wait, so 280 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: just just to be clear who was putting Who is 281 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 1: making the statute? Which which which, which governing body or 282 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:10,239 Speaker 1: which royal family or whatever was believe Parliament got it, 283 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: royal family or whatever. I wanted to go back to 284 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: the the inflation point. You mentioned that the gold and 285 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 1: silver ratio to actual human beings was one thing that 286 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: was pushing prices up. But what did we see during 287 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: the Spanish flu outbreak? Did we see? I mean, we 288 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: wouldn't have had the same type of coinage obviously, and 289 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: we might have had hit to productivity because of the 290 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: war and various disruptions. But what did we see in 291 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: that one? Again, inflation didn't camp them up as much 292 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 1: as I thought it would have during um my reading. 293 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: But I know that there was a brief uptick in inflation, 294 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: But it seems like most of the effects for the 295 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 1: Spanish flu where brief. Even if they're kind of severe, 296 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: they were short lived. Um. But for inflation, I know 297 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: that there was a short uptick, but I don't think 298 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 1: that there was anything um substantial. Again, this is also 299 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: kind during the war, so the government was doing a 300 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: lot to kind of try and control prices in terms 301 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: of quotas and everything and keeping prices stable, because I 302 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: know that after the war ended some industries, I think 303 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: Cole was one of them where the government wasn't buying 304 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: as much instead of help setting prices and stabilize them, 305 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: that the prices kind of dropped after the war ended. 306 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 1: Going back to the Black Death for a second again, 307 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 1: I'm doing Wikipedia history here, which is no no match 308 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: for your war series academic history, but there's a line 309 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: in here this is the Black Death. Most likely originated 310 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: in Central Alasia or East Asia, from where it traveled 311 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 1: along the Silk Road reaching Crimea by a Does that 312 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: fit with what you've read about the history of the 313 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,719 Speaker 1: Black Death? And I'm curious. You know, one of the 314 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: things that's come up with this crisis and this virus 315 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 1: is the degree to which it's sort of has temporarily 316 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: and perhaps long term changed trade routes and certainly trained 317 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: travel routes due to the fact that international travel is 318 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 1: temporarily almost completely non existent. With these recurring outbreaks in 319 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: Europe over the span of you know, years and years 320 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,679 Speaker 1: and years, were there any changes to trade routes that 321 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: you saw or that you've discovered in terms of the 322 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: relationship between Europe and the rest of the world. Not 323 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 1: so much in terms of trade route, but what there 324 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: was definitely a noticeable shift in was the type of 325 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: products in like types of agriculture that was burned in England. 326 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: And again it was because if you were a lord 327 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: who had, you know, say a hundred acres and previously 328 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 1: you had fifty peasants working that land, suddenly you have 329 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: still had the same hundred acres, but maybe there was 330 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 1: only fifteen peasants that could work to land, so you 331 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 1: really weren't able to make use of that hundred acres. 332 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: And so what ended up happening, which again was great 333 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,679 Speaker 1: for the peasant, was the lord ended up leasing and 334 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: renting out some of that acreage to ultimately peasants who 335 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 1: were able to get that land and make a better 336 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: living for themselves because they didn't have to share as 337 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: much of the profit with the lord because they were 338 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: actually renting the land themselves. But the lord was also 339 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 1: forced to then kind of move into areas of agriculture 340 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: that were less um labor intensive, simply because they didn't 341 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: have the labor to work the more labor intensive types 342 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 1: of agriculture. So there was a push into things like 343 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: animal livestock husbandry and planting more things like um grapes, apples, pears, 344 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 1: and this kind of stuff instead of the more traditional 345 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 1: green harvests which had been the case previously because those 346 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,879 Speaker 1: were more labor intensive. So there's definitely a large shift 347 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: in what types of crops the manners were producing um, 348 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: which is pretty substantial. Well, so just you know, big picture, uh, 349 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 1: you know, looking forward, and obviously we're it seems to 350 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: be in this sort of post crisis period in the 351 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: sense that, at least from an economic perspective and certainly 352 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 1: a market perspective, a widespread view that the worst is 353 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: behind us. What type of things would you look forward 354 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: from history or what kind of questions do you still 355 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: have as a student of history in terms of how 356 00:21:55,480 --> 00:22:00,080 Speaker 1: how the post coronavirus period will transpire. I think it, 357 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: like many of us, I am looking to see whether 358 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: this kind of recent uptick in cases and some of 359 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: the states that reopened is going to be something more lasting, 360 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: or whether it's a brief uptick. Because we've mentioned it 361 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: a couple of times that everyone is well aware of 362 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 1: the second wave of the Spanish Flu, and although there 363 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 1: are a lot of differences, um, I think that it's 364 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: definitely interesting to see. Even before all the recent protests, 365 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 1: there seem to be, like around Memorial Days, some kind 366 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: of like switch where people just kind of gave up 367 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: on social distancing and lockdown. Just judging by social media 368 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: and the amount of people I saw it kind of 369 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 1: going out. So I think that's interesting to look out 370 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,639 Speaker 1: for because there are a lot of papers and examples 371 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: from the Spanish Flu that are very reminiscent of today 372 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: where there was business owners protesting about not being able 373 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 1: to operate their businesses and open up their shops. I 374 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: am interested to see if that kind of trend continues, 375 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 1: But also it'll be interesting to see what I think 376 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 1: is in the next maybe crisis or crash, what people's 377 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: expectations are in terms of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus 378 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 1: based on what's happened this time around, Because I think 379 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: it's one of those things where now that the door 380 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: has been opened, what it seems radical this time might 381 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 1: become the expectation the next time around. So it'll be 382 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 1: interesting to see what that kind of lasting impact is, 383 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: just psychologically, because it might be the last time this happened, 384 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 1: we got stimulus checks and the government really stepped into 385 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: try and um save certain industries and sectors. But now 386 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: this time you're saying you're not like and I think 387 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 1: that should be interesting. Well, you mentioned that, you know, 388 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: everyone is seeing these charts and stories of remember the 389 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 1: second wave of the Spanish flu was worse than the first, 390 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,199 Speaker 1: and of course that's not a lot of people's minds 391 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: coming into the fall for blue season, to the extent 392 00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 1: that the coronavirus is seasonal, which we don't know that 393 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: much about But was there anybody in nine eighteen saying, oh, remember, 394 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 1: you know what happened the second wave of x or 395 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 1: is the awareness of the concept of a second wave 396 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 1: something that makes this unique and thus maybe a reason 397 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: to think that history won't play out because when you 398 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,959 Speaker 1: when you can observe something and when you can describe something, 399 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 1: usually don't really get the same as last time. I think, 400 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 1: well they might, it might not have been like the 401 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:34,640 Speaker 1: second wave exact phrasing. They're definitely people who were advocating 402 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:39,880 Speaker 1: for continue to kind of lockdown in quarantine because they're 403 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 1: aware that people continuing to go out and temple and 404 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 1: crowds with only they caused the flue to linger around longer. 405 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 1: But it is interesting and related to your point is 406 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 1: that one reason to be more optimistic for today is 407 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: the reason is called the Spanish flu is because it 408 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 1: didn't originate in Spain. The reason it's called the Spanish 409 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 1: flu is because during World War two or World War 410 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 1: One rather, Spain was neutral and in other countries that 411 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: were experiencing outbreaks of the Spanish for like the US, 412 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: there's kind of this tacit agreement with the government between 413 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 1: media and government that the media was not going to 414 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: report on bad news like this, like Spanish flu. I mean, 415 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 1: World War One's going on, and the government didn't want 416 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: stories about Spanish flu kind of running all over the 417 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: front pages of newspapers. So there are definitely some stories 418 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: on it, but they were kind of relegated to kind 419 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 1: of the back pages of newspapers, so there wasn't much coverage. 420 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: And the reason that it's called the Spanish fluds because 421 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: it Spain was neutral and so they didn't have that 422 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 1: kind of tacit agreement in place, and so they were 423 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 1: the ones kind of openly reporting it cases that were 424 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 1: doing the most reporting, and so people started linking it 425 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,880 Speaker 1: with Spain, even though it was probably occurring in their 426 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,440 Speaker 1: own country as well. It just wasn't as widely reported. 427 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: But that to your point, is the fact that today 428 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 1: it's the opposite where literally all we read about his coronavirus, right, 429 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: so there is a much more widespread may. I can't 430 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: imagine anyone who doesn't know what coronavirus is, and so 431 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:12,119 Speaker 1: everyone is gonna be more cognizant of the risks involved 432 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 1: in how and where we can do things to prevent 433 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 1: that continued spread of the virus. So that is definitely 434 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 1: one major reason to be optimistic is there's much broader 435 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,880 Speaker 1: knowledge of how to stop the spread. I think that's 436 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: a good place to leave it. It's it's pretty rare 437 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: for us nowadays to like end things on an optimistic note. 438 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 1: So so let's do that, all right. Jamie Catherwood, a 439 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 1: k A finance history guy, thank you so much for 440 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 1: coming back on. And we should just mention, of course, 441 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 1: that everyone should check out your website investor ammnesia dot com. 442 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 1: Thanks Jamie, thank you so much for having me. Thanks Jamie. 443 00:26:53,560 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 1: That was great. So Joe, I found that discussion fascinating. 444 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: I kind of knew that I would, but all those 445 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:18,640 Speaker 1: little tidbits and anecdotes of how you know, history has 446 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 1: reacted to previous pandemics, I just find it so so fascinating. Yeah. Absolutely, 447 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: And Jamie is just the best, isn't it. Yeah? I mean, honestly, 448 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,880 Speaker 1: I know I've been sort of gushing about his output 449 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 1: and his website, but if you enjoy finance, if you 450 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 1: enjoy markets, or if you just enjoyed general history, following 451 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 1: him on Twitter and reading his weekly newsletter things like that, 452 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 1: it's just really interesting. He does a great job of 453 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 1: going back to primary sources as well, so he'll often 454 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,679 Speaker 1: include cartoons of the time. You know, some of the 455 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:57,680 Speaker 1: cartoons that accompany the Spanish flu are particularly poignant. It's 456 00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 1: just a really great thing to to go over. And again, 457 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 1: maybe I'm weird, but I always derive a little bit 458 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: of comfort from going back in time and seeing what 459 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 1: previous generations had to deal with and and realizing that, 460 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 1: you know, something's never really changed. Yeah, no, I love it. 461 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 1: And even the fact that there was an Amazon equivalent 462 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: of these finish flow is pretty amazing because I was, like, 463 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: you know, I thought that was gonna be a joker, 464 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: that there wasn't really going to be. But the fact 465 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: that even even back then they were like similar industrial changes. 466 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 1: And at some point we should do like a history 467 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 1: of the catalog what was it the J. C. Penny 468 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 1: Catalog has said Sears, Yeah, we should do an episode 469 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 1: about the history of the series catalog because I think 470 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 1: it's a pretty pretty um fascinating in its own right. 471 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 1: How big of a deal that was absolutely and absolute 472 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 1: giant of retail in the early nine early to mid 473 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: nineteen hundreds. And then well we can see what's happening today. 474 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: It kind of makes you think about Amazon's business model, 475 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: doesn't it. Yeah? Absolutely, I guess The other the other 476 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 1: big point to consider from Jamie is the notion that 477 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 1: there are some major things that are different today. So 478 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 1: one we have more transparency when it comes to information 479 00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: about the coronavirus, and two we have the big, big 480 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 1: reactions from central banks and other authorities. I guess that's 481 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 1: that's pretty different, isn't it. Yeah? Absolutely? All right, Well, 482 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: on that note, this has been another episode of the 483 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,160 Speaker 1: All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me 484 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe wy isn't thought. 485 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 1: You could follow me at the Stalwart, And you should 486 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 1: follow our guest Jamie Catherwood. He is j f C 487 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 1: Underscore three Underscore. As Tracy mentioned, he is a great 488 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 1: follow on Twitter. Be sure to follow our producer Laura 489 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: Carlson at Laura M. Carlson, followed the Bloomberg head of podcast, 490 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: Francesca Levie at Francesca Today and check out all of 491 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 1: our podcast at Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. Thanks 492 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: for listening.