1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi's Apia 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: and today it's about Championship Sunday. 4 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:09,239 Speaker 2: We did it. 5 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: We got here two big games on Sunday, one in 6 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: the afternoon, one in the evening for all of us 7 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: to sit back and do absolutely nothing except watch and 8 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: of course bet. And that's what we're here to do 9 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: today and to help us get the right bets and 10 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: the right wagers in on time. Of course is the 11 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: Undertaker himself back from the dead, Andrew Erickson. And of 12 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: course though Welsh, the man about town who is actually 13 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: gonna have a new address pretty soon, which is very exciting. 14 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: So he's doing the show amongst all the boxes, which 15 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: is the worst, Which is the worst. So Welsh, give 16 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 1: me the over under on when the boxes are all unpacked, 17 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: you're moving this weekend. I'm gonna set the date at 18 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: February seventeenth, over under you are unpacked completely by. 19 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 2: Then, twenty twenty five. 20 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought that was exactly. 21 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 2: I'll go with the over one hundred percent. Yeah no, no, no, no, 22 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 2: we won't be completely unpacked. 23 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 1: Ericson you strike me as an unp like me, like 24 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: I'm a guy. I come home from vacation or meetings 25 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: or whoever. I'm gone for a couple of days. The 26 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 1: first thing I do, suitcase gets emptied, laundry goes in, 27 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: Boom bang boom done. I move, things are getting unpacked, 28 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: things to getting put away two three days tops. Forget 29 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 1: about it. Ericson, you strike me as that kind of dude. 30 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: Is that true? 31 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: I don't like doing that, but I force myself to 32 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 3: do it. It's the right thing to do, it's the 33 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 3: responsible thing to do. 34 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 4: So yeah, that's why I like you. 35 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: Erickson. You're the adult in the room. So and Andrew 36 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 1: Erickson the Welsh. They have their picks ready to go 37 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: before we get to them. Don't forget everybody. Make sure 38 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 1: you drop your comments below because we love to hear 39 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: your picks here on the channel. So drop your comments 40 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: below and if you do, you just might win a 41 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros, the best 42 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: betting tools on the planet. If you haven't already, download 43 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app use it this weekend. Use it 44 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 1: for all the sports you're using n If you have iOS, 45 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: you get three that's right. Count them one, two, three 46 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: free days of premium Betting Pros. You can play around 47 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: with all the bells and whistles there which are really 48 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: gonna help you take your wagering to the next level, 49 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: especially if you're due to wagering and you just went 50 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: legal in your state. Betting Pros is a great way 51 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: to help yourself. You have the prop at cheat sheet, 52 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: all the other tools too. You gonna be track your 53 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 1: progress or just make picks and just figure out how 54 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,799 Speaker 1: things are going and track your progress that way. I'd 55 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: till you feel comfortable starting to put some money on 56 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: the line. And don't forget if you're gonna put money 57 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: on the line for NBA, make sure you're watching Fast 58 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: Break Bets with Matt Mody, the Man, the Myth, the 59 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 1: Legend every Wednesday every Friday, eleven am Eastern right here 60 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: on the Betting Pro Channel. Subscribe ring the bell for 61 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: notifications join them live. All right, gentlemen, let's start here 62 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: with of course Kansas City and Baltimore. Welsh will start 63 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: with you because we know the moving truck will be 64 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: there any minute, so I want to make sure we 65 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 1: get all your picks in. So let's talk about it. 66 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 1: Your first side of the game that you like. We're 67 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: gonna dive into these two games one at a time, 68 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: do the sides we like, and then do the props 69 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: we like. So, Welsh, what do you have. 70 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 3: For the people? 71 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 2: Do you want both my sides or just one? 72 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: I want both your side, baby, all right, it's been 73 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:51,639 Speaker 1: like all the time, and I'm looking for both the 74 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: Welsh's sides. 75 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 2: I will tell you I don't really love any of 76 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 2: the side total bets like that. I'm enamored with. I 77 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 2: have bets, but my obsession is more in the prop 78 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: market than it is the actual sides and against the 79 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 2: spread stuff that we're gonna play. But I do have 80 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 2: some plays. We're going back to Kansas City and we 81 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 2: are going to play the plus money. It was three 82 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 2: and a half at one point. You can find it 83 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 2: pretty easily at plus four now. So give me Kansas 84 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 2: City plus four, who are now five and oh in 85 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: the last five games as underdogs, and I think they're 86 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: on a run right now. I mean, Baltimore has absolutely 87 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 2: been a beast. But I'm going to be backing Travis 88 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 2: Kelcey in this one. I'm gonna be backing the plus 89 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 2: money and it's kind of that key marker. Give me 90 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 2: that three and a half to four for Kansas City. 91 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 2: That's where I'm going to sit. And I think this 92 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,839 Speaker 2: has definitely the potential to be a close game. And 93 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 2: by that you've got a low total. Forty four and 94 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: a half is the line with a twenty two and 95 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 2: a half first half line. So last week didn't work 96 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 2: out for me, but I'm going to go right back 97 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 2: to it, and I'm going to play a total, but 98 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: I'm going to take the under twenty two and a 99 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: half again, another key marker that's at that twenty one point. 100 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: If I get above, I'm going to play under. And 101 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: don't think this is going to be high scoring half. 102 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 2: The game is not projected to be a high scoring 103 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: game though they're projecting some points to be in the 104 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 2: first half. So give me first half twenty two and 105 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 2: a half under and Kansas City plus four. I actually 106 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 2: think I like the first half play more than I 107 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 2: like anything. But both of these again solid bets. I'm 108 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 2: not going to go too crazy because it is playoff football, 109 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: and sides and totals can get crazy, but I will 110 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 2: say if you're looking at public money currently public money 111 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,599 Speaker 2: and tickets are on Baltimore, so we are a fade 112 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 2: the public right now. 113 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: Okay, everybody knows all I feel about Kansas City as 114 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: an underdog. I made the big statement last week about 115 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 1: it felt right. 116 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 4: It was right. 117 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: Ericson where do you side with this game? Kansas City 118 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: coming into Baltimore here with the MVP in air quotes 119 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. 120 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 4: I like the chief side with the points. 121 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 3: I don't know if they're going to win the game, 122 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 3: but I think that an easy way to ruin your 123 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 3: Sunday experience watching football is to bet against Patch Mahomes. 124 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 3: I'm just gonna be honest, like, you're just rooting for 125 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: him to do bad. Every time he drops back to throw, 126 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: You're just gonna be like, why do I hate myself? 127 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 3: Like why did I subject myself to this misery? So 128 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 3: I'm on the case plus three and a half, plus 129 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 3: four wherever you can get that for the reasons Welsh 130 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 3: outlined for really all the reasons. It's just betting on 131 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 3: Mahomes as an underdog just feels right again. So I'm 132 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 3: not as gun hole on the money line, but I 133 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 3: do think that just taking against the spread, taking the 134 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 3: points of the Chiefs makes sense. But I like the 135 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 3: over in this game because the over is the way 136 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 3: I view it as a way to bet on both 137 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 3: quarterbacks doing well. Which what better two quarterbacks to bet on? 138 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 4: In that case? 139 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 3: If you did that last week with the Chiefs and 140 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 3: the Bills, that game sort over the total because you're 141 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 3: betting on two guys playing an MVP level to put 142 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 3: on the Superman cape and get the job done. Now 143 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 3: I think it's gonna happen again. Forty four and a half. 144 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 3: Isn't it weird that we have a game between Lamar 145 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 3: Jacks and Patrick Mahomes that has a smaller total than 146 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 3: a game between Brock Perdy and Jared Goff, who that 147 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 3: was not on my Bengal car heading into this season, 148 00:05:58,680 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 3: but here. 149 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: We are Rock Party and Jared Goff the two elites. 150 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: Is that was? No? 151 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 4: No, they're not. No, no, they're not. They definitely aren't 152 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 4: when you look. 153 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: To the quarterback Sorry I had something. 154 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 3: Sorry, So when you look at the season long trends again, 155 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 3: it's why the total in this game is not great. 156 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 3: For the Kids City Chiefs in the Baltimore Ravens, the 157 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 3: Chiefs have been the team that's had the most unders 158 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 3: tied with the Carolina Panthers because their totals are usually 159 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 3: much higher based on the expectations. But you look at 160 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 3: what they've done recently, Ravens. Five of their last six 161 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 3: home games have gone over. The only one that didn't 162 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 3: was the game that Tyler Huntley started. Sixty one points 163 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 3: scored on average in the last five games in Baltimore 164 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 3: that have gone over the total. What about the Chiefs 165 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 3: on the road. The last four Chiefs road games have 166 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 3: all gone over the total forty four, forty sixty eight 167 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 3: and fifty one average of forty seven total points per 168 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 3: game so season long. Yes, this line makes sense of 169 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 3: forty four and a half, but on the recent trends 170 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 3: home road splits, this is a game that I'm hammering 171 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 3: the old' on, Like, call me crazy that I'm betting 172 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 3: on Mahomes and Lamar Jackson to do well. That's what 173 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 3: I'm gonna be rooting for because every time they drove 174 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 3: back to throw, it's gonna be magic. So I'm gonna 175 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 3: be enjoying it with my popcorn, being like, Hey, I 176 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 3: don't care who wins. I just know both quarterbacks are 177 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 3: gonna ball out here, So I like the over forty 178 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 3: four and a half. 179 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 2: A little bit of rain just fun out. A little 180 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 2: bit of rain also projected in this game, if that 181 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 2: means anything. Sometimes that can play a huge offensive upside. 182 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: I'm not sure that that'll be the plane here, but 183 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 2: there is a current forecast of likely rain in that one. 184 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: All right, not Isaiah likely rain, just regular rain. By 185 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: the way, just for everybody out there ericson popcorn, kettle 186 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: corn butter, what's the popcorn caramel? 187 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 5: Now? 188 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 3: I had a lot of kettle corn growing up, and 189 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 3: I think I I think I was overexposed to it, honestly, 190 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 3: so like an now sick of it. So I definite 191 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 3: for the the cheddarncorn. 192 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go. And speaking of the line too, 193 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: you're talking about you can get the four over on DK, 194 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: you can get the four over on bet rivers. Of course, 195 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: the juice goes from the one oh five at the 196 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: minus excuse me, at the plus three and a half 197 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: to minus one twelve minus one oh five, So you 198 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: know that's the only thing. The juice gets adjusted a 199 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: little bit. Caesars actually has the plus three and a 200 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: half even money, which is interesting. Again, this is why 201 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: you're you know, this is why use the betting pros 202 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: app everybody because you have these opportunities to take a 203 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: look and then bet the best line to possibly kanisash. 204 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: I went in big wagers. 205 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 2: I would play the three and a half at better 206 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 2: juice for sure, Like, yeah, three and a half four, 207 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 2: it's fine. 208 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: The better juice. I mean three and a half at 209 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: even at Caesars. Right now, that looks like the you know, 210 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: the best bang for your buck there. Let's talk about 211 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: the individuals for this game. Well s, she give us 212 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: the two props you like for Kansas City Baltimore. 213 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 2: All right, going over to the Kansas City, I'm said, 214 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 2: I'm backing Travis Kelcey in this one. So yeah, we're 215 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 2: going Travis Kelcey sixty one and a half receiving yards 216 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 2: over Kelsey has hit this total in both playoff games, 217 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 2: but I went back and took a look. In fact, 218 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 2: Kelsey has a streak of eleven straight playoff games dating 219 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 2: back to twenty twenty one where he has had no 220 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 2: less than seventy receiving yards. The two best tight ends 221 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 2: the Ravens have gone up against this year, where both 222 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 2: the Porta and Kittle. Both of those tight ends went 223 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,479 Speaker 2: for ninety five yards and one hundred and twenty six respectively. 224 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: So I think you know we have clearly gotten Kelsey 225 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 2: back into the action. You've got some historical data so 226 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 2: far the playoffs have worked here. So I'm back in 227 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey on that front, and then on the other side, 228 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 2: my other bed is going to be on a Baltimore raven. 229 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 2: We're going with Justice Hill, who we saw get a 230 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,719 Speaker 2: ton of touches last week in the receiving side and 231 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 2: on the rushing side. You can get big plus money 232 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 2: on his receptions. Two and a half over is plus 233 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 2: one forty he hit this last week, and the Chiefs 234 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 2: have given up three or more receptions or three receptions 235 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 2: or more to running backs in four straight games. They're 236 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 2: also averaging just under five receptions given up to running backs. 237 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 2: And for me to back Kansas City Snead kind of 238 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: maybe locking up the receivers, I think there's going to 239 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 2: be a possibility there's a lot of dumpoffs of tight 240 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 2: ends and running backs for Baltimore I think are in play. 241 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 2: This is a huge plus money play, So I really 242 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 2: like this one for Justice Hill. So Kelsey receiving yards 243 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 2: over Justice Hill receptions over all. 244 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: Right, Erickson, let's go to you for two of your 245 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: favorite props for the early game. And I can't believe this, 246 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: but you're gonna talk about two overs. Who are you? 247 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: I don't even know you are anymore. 248 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 3: No, only one over. I honestly don't like a lot 249 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 3: of props in this game. I actually put one prop 250 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 3: from the Chiefs Ravesseum because I'm just loaded up on 251 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 3: props on the second congres of the ship game. 252 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 4: Checo or Pachecko over fourteen and a half rushing attempts. 253 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 3: He's gone over this in three straight games and seven 254 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 3: of his last eight games played like this is an 255 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 3: offense that's building around Pachecko, Like it's Pacheco, it's Roshie Rice, 256 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,680 Speaker 3: it's Travis Kelsey. He feels like it, like and this 257 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 3: is you can attack the ravens on the ground like 258 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 3: we talked about earlier this week on the Fantas Pro Show. 259 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 3: Like the over on Pochecko's rushing yards now that number 260 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 3: has been bet up. We would open it like sixty 261 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 3: a half. Think it's around like sixty four and a 262 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 3: half now, So I don't love the value as much. 263 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 3: But on the rushing attempts, the volume that he's getting 264 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 3: in a game that should be close. I don't think 265 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 3: that either team is going to band in the run 266 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 3: in any way, shape or form. So I'm just gonna 267 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 3: get to you to write Pacheco like the Chiefs are 268 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 3: done with him basically the last eight games. 269 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 1: All right. Certainly makes a lot of sense to me. 270 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:12,679 Speaker 1: I like him in DFS and O Debro and I 271 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: are gonna talk about that on the DFS pod today 272 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,319 Speaker 1: as we record that right after this, So it makes 273 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: a lot of sense to me. I like the over 274 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: on Pacheco too, And I think you're right. I think 275 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: they've finally, you know, realized this is their identity. This 276 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 1: is their new offense, and it's a little bit different 277 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: than what we see in the past, but it works 278 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: in Baltimore a little bit vulnerable there, I think if 279 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: you're going to attack that defense, that's the way to 280 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,439 Speaker 1: do it. Okay, let's shift gears here or to San Francisco. Welsh. 281 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 1: I know you're very excited for this game, very exciting 282 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: times for you. Before we even get to that, what 283 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: did you think you're forty nine ers last week? Because 284 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:45,439 Speaker 1: I haven't talked to you about this, I talked to 285 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: all the cheeseheads on Monday about it, but I haven't 286 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,119 Speaker 1: got a chance to talk to you. Were you impressed 287 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 1: so you please? Were you just happy you got away 288 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: with the victory? How'd you feel about the Niners performance 289 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: last weekend? 290 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 2: Great teams find ways to win when they're not great. 291 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 2: That's all that. It is, all of everybody's nonsense, Shut up. 292 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 2: They have proven to be at least one of the 293 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 2: best teams, best team in the NFC. Brock Purty pid 294 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 2: like garbage, garbage, and then he picked up in the 295 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 2: fourth quarter in the most important time. Party can be frustrating. 296 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 2: Perty is the better version of Jimmy Garoppolo, which is garbage. 297 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo would have those moments where he would be 298 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 2: incredible for two quarters and to make the stupidest throw 299 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 2: you've ever seen a human being make. Purdy has those, 300 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 2: and he's gotten away with them quite a bit this season. 301 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 2: That's great. He's not the best quarterback in the NFL, 302 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 2: but he is great for the system. He is much 303 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 2: better than what the public talks about. And like I said, 304 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 2: most important thing is great teams find ways to overcome 305 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 2: when they're not being great, and The forty nin ers 306 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 2: were not great. They are lucky to have lost or 307 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 2: to have won that game. And the defense was piss 308 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 2: poor Perdy was bad. The hope is that when you 309 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 2: can win a game like that, when you're that bad, 310 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 2: when they get right, the forty nine ers are a 311 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 2: machine and unstoppable. So yeah, I hated last week's game. 312 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 2: I'm so happy to be excited this week and we'll 313 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 2: see what happens. The Lions are kind of a scary team, 314 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 2: but they are a horrid defense, and that's what we're 315 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 2: going to talk about, all. 316 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 1: Right, So let's talk about it. What is your angle 317 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: or looking at the game numbers here for this before 318 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 1: we get to the individuals. 319 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be no shocker, not even trying to 320 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 2: be the biggest forty on your home or anything like that. 321 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 2: But I bet this game, but I bet it early. 322 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 2: I actually bet it, like after the game last week, 323 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 2: and I got forty nine or six and a half. 324 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 2: This line is a movin. It's gone to seven. It's 325 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 2: up to seven and a half on DK. I don't 326 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 2: know if it'll keep going. Seven and a half might 327 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 2: be a key marker that brings it back down. But 328 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 2: I like the forty nine ers in this one. One 329 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 2: of the top scoring teams against one of the worst 330 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 2: defensive top or bottom ten in defensive scoring given up 331 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 2: for the Detroit Lions. I also think the forty nine 332 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 2: ers this is a mission type of game. How bad 333 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 2: I mean, we can talk about it. We just did. 334 00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 2: How bad did they play last week? The defense has 335 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 2: to play better, They've got to shut down, and you 336 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:04,839 Speaker 2: got to dominate. I think there's a lot of advantages 337 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 2: offensively for the forty nine ers, So I'm gonna take 338 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 2: that seven. When it gets to seven and a half, 339 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 2: I'm a little dicey. I might even consider the Detroit side, 340 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 2: but I'm gonna take San Francisco minus seven. Where you 341 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 2: can find it. Go to bettingpros dot com or get 342 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 2: the app and you'll be able to find the books 343 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 2: that are giving that to you. That's really important, I 344 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 2: think for a seven to seven and a half line, 345 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 2: And then the other play is I'm gonna go with 346 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 2: the forty nine ers team total. I was digging through 347 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 2: this is on DK, kind of looking around to see, 348 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 2: you know, what is the juice versus different points? Forty 349 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 2: nine Ers averaging just at twenty nine points per game 350 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 2: on the year and averaging more points at home. I 351 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 2: think around three or four points more at home than 352 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 2: on the road. They're at home up against the Lions, 353 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 2: who are a bottom ten in points given up. I 354 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 2: went with twenty nine and a half total team points 355 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 2: for the San Francisco forty nine ers because it had 356 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 2: a little bit better juice. It's almost even money at 357 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 2: one oh five. This line is fifty one and a half. 358 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: If you love the over, you gotta love this even more. 359 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 2: If you like San Francisco to win, you gotta love 360 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 2: it more. I'm banking on the forty nine ers putting 361 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 2: up thirty points, which is definitely obtainable against this bad defense. 362 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 2: So twenty nine and a half team total point San 363 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 2: Francisco at almost even money on DK and then the 364 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 2: spread at seven. 365 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: All right, it sounds like Welsh is pretty confident in 366 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers having a pretty easy path here 367 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. Ericson do you see things the 368 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: same way. 369 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 4: I do not. 370 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 3: I'm taking the lines with the point because you know 371 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 3: Welsh open take. 372 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 2: Why'd you take the money line? Just take the money line, 373 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 2: mister Detroit, Take. 374 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: Another little pizza. Muff. 375 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 4: Now I want to take the money. 376 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take the spread plus two ninety on 377 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: FanDuel Right now, that's the best one you can get 378 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: at betting pros. That's a pretty nice money line. I 379 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: would even just throw half a unit on there, just 380 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: to cover yourself. 381 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 3: Thing is, I don't need to bet the money line 382 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 3: because I have a Super Bowl ticket on the Detroit Lion. 383 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 4: So that's my money line debt. 384 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 2: So rip that up. 385 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: I'm on the podcast. That was the sound of Welsh 386 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: up Ericson's ticket in the ether. All right, Ericson tell 387 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: us why. 388 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 3: Well Welsh Open, talking about how great teams find ways 389 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 3: to win. The other thing that great teams do, they 390 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 3: cover the spread. Look at the last three years, Dan 391 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 3: Campbell Lines are number one team against the spread, over 392 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 3: seventy percent against the spread the last two seasons. The 393 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 3: forty nine Ers at home are zero to six against 394 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 3: the spread. The Lines have covered the spread eight of 395 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 3: their last nine games is underdogs. Road team has covered 396 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 3: the spread each of the forty nine ers last eleven 397 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 3: games fort Niners are at home, they don't cover. So yeah, 398 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 3: I'm not taking the forty nine Ers to win, especially now. 399 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 3: That you're getting the hook with the touchdown plus seven 400 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 3: and a half. 401 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 2: Yeahs than the hook. 402 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 4: Okay, well whatever, all those plus sevens that people bet earlier. 403 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, for those of you who just listening and not 404 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: watching on YouTube, that was ericson ripping up Welsh's imaginary 405 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: tickets of things. But look, I mean they make a 406 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: good case. A lot of people also throwing out the 407 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: whole you know, in the forty nine ers after that 408 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: Eagles game. Really, the schedule has been a little softer 409 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: for them, so it's hard to get a gauge of 410 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: how good they are. And I mean, look, a missed 411 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 1: field goal, maybe a Jordan love Better moment at the 412 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: end of the game, we might not be even talking 413 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 1: about the forty nine ers. Look, Walsh makes a great point, 414 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 1: which is obviously this is the you know, good teams 415 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 1: do find ways to win. They are at home and 416 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 1: they should win. But Eric's and I also feel kind 417 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: of like, you know, Shanahan always finds ways to lose 418 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,439 Speaker 1: these big games too, and that, my friends, is not 419 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: a hot take, that's just a fact. 420 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I agree. And the thing that would also 421 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 3: point out is he goes super conservative in playoff games. 422 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 3: He tightens up, and you know who doesn't do that, 423 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 3: Dan Campbell. You know, Dan Cambell's going for it like 424 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,199 Speaker 3: he doesn't care, Like he's gonna go for it a 425 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 3: two point conversion. If he's backed up to the twenty 426 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 3: five yard line, he's gonna go for it. 427 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 4: So we are right five. 428 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,439 Speaker 1: We're gonna do a fake punt ride here. He's like 429 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: the Matt Foley of the NFL. I love him. You know, 430 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: you know you think that fake punch is gonna be 431 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 1: good at knocking him out. 432 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 2: To Jack squat. 433 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,959 Speaker 1: I'm gonna tell you people what's going on. Next thing, 434 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:56,439 Speaker 1: you know, you get cut from the Lions, you end 435 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: up living down in a van down by the river. 436 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: I love Dan Campbell. He's so great. He's just the best. 437 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: So you're in on the cover and you're in on 438 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: the total for this game as well. 439 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 3: I like the under in this game. Okay, but I'm 440 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 3: playing in Ford Field, so number one not course Field. 441 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 3: We're playing in San Francisco, where underhappened or the under 442 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 3: wasn't last week. But we look at what they've done 443 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 3: this year, forty six point two points per game. These 444 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: teams average forty eight and a half points per game. 445 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 3: So I'm trying to figure out, like where this fifty 446 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 3: one and a half point total is coming from. The 447 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 3: Lions defense has been really bad. 448 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: But just coming from the names. It's coming from the 449 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: Aman Ross, Aint Brown, CMC, George Kittle. The names in 450 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: this game are big, and they're big offensive weapon names. 451 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: So that's why the totals where it is, I think. 452 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:42,720 Speaker 4: And I just don't. 453 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 3: I think total is just too high, Like it's really 454 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 3: more of a value play. And again that's why I 455 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 3: talked about earlier, like the props in this game. I 456 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 3: think there's gonna be yards, but I think that ultimately 457 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 3: the points are going to fall just short because of 458 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 3: just being such a massive number. You know, the Lions 459 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 3: don't play nearly as well on the road as at home. Again, 460 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 3: they're five and four towards the over on the road 461 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 3: verse seven to two versus over at home this year. 462 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 3: And we've seen with Rock Purdy where if he gets 463 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 3: pressured a Hutchinson, no, he can make mistakes and not 464 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 3: necessarily convert. If the Dobi sam it doesn't play, So 465 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 3: you're taking away some weapons here in the total gets 466 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 3: bet up, Like is that fifty and a half Is 467 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 3: it fifty one? 468 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 4: That's a fifty one and a half. I'm trying to 469 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 4: figure out. 470 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 3: Like, I just think that the value is on the underplay, 471 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 3: given that these teams average three points fewer per game 472 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 3: than the betting total. Mean you look at the overs 473 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 3: that happened in San Francisco this season, the totals have 474 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,680 Speaker 3: been fifty one, fifty one, and fifty two. So one 475 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 3: game all year long in San Francisco has actually gone 476 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 3: over fifty one and a half points one game. So 477 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 3: I think the value is on the under. 478 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,479 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the individuals here, Welsh, give 479 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 1: us your favorite props for Sunday Evenings contest. 480 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,120 Speaker 2: By I want to point out Ericson is a full 481 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 2: public fade. You have faded every public ticket and cash 482 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,159 Speaker 2: on all four games that I'm looking at, So I 483 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 2: just would like to point that out. 484 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 4: So man of not it was like a four leg 485 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 4: parlam I'm gonna put together. 486 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: This person is not a mand of the people. It's 487 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: definitely Eric. 488 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, So I agree with Ericson on this. I think 489 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:07,919 Speaker 2: there's just a lot of plays out of this. If 490 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 2: you would have said, hey, pick your four favorite props, 491 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 2: I would have been all from this game and not 492 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 2: out of that first game, so I honed it down 493 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 2: my favorite of the week. This is one I also 494 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 2: locked in. I locked it in a much better number 495 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 2: than it is, But Christian McCaffrey receptions four and a 496 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 2: half over. I got it at minus one ZHO five. 497 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 2: It's jumped up to minus twenty in the best market, 498 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 2: and it's even around one twenty five. But McCaffrey's hit 499 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,959 Speaker 2: this in three of his last four games, and in 500 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 2: six games as a forty nine er without Deebo Samuel, 501 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 2: He's combined for thirty one catches, with four of those 502 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 2: six games him having five or more receptions. So if 503 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 2: Deebo's not in this game, I don't think Debo is 504 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 2: going to change the structure of a few of these 505 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 2: bets that I like. But without Debo, they're going to 506 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,920 Speaker 2: rely on a few other spots. Brandon Ayuk, by the way, 507 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 2: is one of the best matchups, but I just can't 508 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 2: bet him correctly, so I'm just staying away from it. 509 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 2: But Christian McCaffrey, I think he had seven receptions last 510 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 2: I mean, he is get the ball out of the backfield, 511 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 2: that is where they're going to go and without debo, 512 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 2: he's a big play on this. George Kittle is another 513 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 2: big play Ericson is on one side that I think 514 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 2: you can pivot from my play, and so this is 515 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 2: a little cheekier, but I went with George Kittle longest 516 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 2: reception twenty four and a half and this is just 517 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 2: like basic prop juice. He's hit this in eight of 518 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,919 Speaker 2: his last ten games played, and one of those that 519 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 2: he missed it was twenty four yards. And he's hit 520 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 2: this in five of his last six games. Prior to 521 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 2: this season, the Lions had given up the before the 522 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 2: I'm sorry the end of the season, the regular season, 523 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 2: the Lions had given up the most receiving yards to 524 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 2: tight ends over the last month. So that is just 525 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,640 Speaker 2: an advantage for tightends overall. So the overall pivot play 526 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 2: is you can go to the receiving yards on Kittle, 527 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,479 Speaker 2: which is just a little bit higher, but the longest 528 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 2: reception he just does this even in moments where he 529 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,880 Speaker 2: doesn't hit this overall receiving yard prop. The longest reception 530 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 2: is something that is in play. Kittle makes big plays. 531 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 2: The best tighten advantage to linebacker coverage is to Kittle. 532 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 2: For this coming weekend and without debo. Kittle also has 533 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 2: absolutely eight So George Kittle longest reception twenty four and 534 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 2: a half Ober. 535 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: It's a really good piece of analysis there. Also, I 536 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 1: feel like that took a lot out of you. Do 537 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: you need an orange slice or something? 538 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:24,640 Speaker 2: Or are you okay? Everything all right? Moving tomorrow? 539 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: Rain tomorrow. You get to rip everything, You get to 540 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: rip open boxes and all that stuff. 541 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 2: And the forty nine ers lose to IMNP. 542 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: Are you gonna have cable or whatever? The setup is like, 543 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: all set up, ready to watch the game on Sunday. Yeah, 544 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 1: we'll be good wels just families like carrying boxes. He's like, yeah, yeah, 545 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: I just put that in the corner over there. Games on. 546 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 2: Luckily it's the later game. That's the thing that's gonna 547 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,120 Speaker 2: be like a saving grace is like everyone's gonna be exhausted. 548 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 2: It'll be the later game and we'll go in and 549 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 2: hopefully I'll have my words back. We can take bring 550 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 2: my words with the forty nine ers to the Super Bowl. 551 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, and some orange slices. All right, Ericson, let's go 552 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:57,920 Speaker 1: to you. I know you said you had three, all right, 553 00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 1: you tease, And now's your chance. 554 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:03,199 Speaker 3: All right, so kind of parlaying what Well said about 555 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 3: George Kittle. I just like the overr on his overall 556 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 3: receiving yards fifty nine and a half receiving yards. Look, 557 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 3: he's gone over sixteen seven of his last ten games 558 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 3: played in all but one home game played this year, 559 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 3: And we talked about the splits with Deebo Samuel. Six 560 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 3: starts with Rock Purdy without Deebo Samuel, including last week, 561 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 3: Kittle's gone for over ninety receiving arts per game. 562 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,639 Speaker 4: Like, Kittle is just a big play machine. 563 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 3: The matchup calls for it, and Welsh, I know you're 564 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 3: afraid of you got to dip your toes back into 565 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 3: the IU of pool man, Like it's when you least 566 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 3: expect this, when you back off that you know he's 567 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 3: gonna go for one hundred yards, Like that was not to. 568 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,640 Speaker 2: Play last week, and it's like the best play this week. 569 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 3: But I'm like, but the only thing you're doing is 570 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:39,640 Speaker 3: because it didn't work out last week. 571 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: But ye, scared money will make money. 572 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,640 Speaker 3: If Cortland Sutton has taught me anything exactly, Scared money 573 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 3: don't make money. So go right back to my yuke 574 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 3: bet that alternate one hundred receiving yards Welsh, come on, 575 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 3: let's do it. 576 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,480 Speaker 2: It's plus one fifty this week too. I'm like, come on, 577 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 2: I know, I know. Actually I went and took a look. 578 00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 2: I think it's five straight number one wide receivers up 579 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 2: against the Lions have gone over one hundred. It's really 580 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 2: like a ridiculous amount that the top white that. 581 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 4: Is the betting pros app that you have the brand. 582 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 4: You've over one hundred receiving. 583 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: All right, all right, so kittle over. What else you 584 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: got any CMC props or anything on the Lions? 585 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 4: Yeah? 586 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 3: I have a rare CMC under prop because his rushing 587 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 3: attempts is set at twenty and a half rushing attempts. 588 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 3: He has not gone over this number in seven straight games. 589 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 3: Seven straight games he's been under twenty carries, and the 590 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 3: Lions defense has been one of the best against the 591 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 3: run this year. They have not allowed a running back 592 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 3: to get to twenty carries against them all season. So 593 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 3: this has literally never happened against the Lions where a 594 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 3: running back's gotten twenty carries. McCaffrey hasn't done it in 595 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 3: seven straight games. So yeah, maybe I get burned by CMC. 596 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 3: The best player in fantas football. But I like the 597 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 3: value here on the under at twenty a half rushing attempts, 598 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 3: so I'm gonna be betting that. 599 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 4: The other under, I like. 600 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 3: Jared Goff under one and a half rushing yards. He 601 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 3: got over this last week on a scramble. It was 602 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 3: the first time that Jared Goff has scrambled since Week three, 603 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 3: and it's because he was facing a Todd Bowles blitz 604 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 3: heavy defense that quarterbacks more likely to scrabble against. The 605 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 3: forty nine ers have the third lowest blitz rate in 606 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 3: the NFL. And before this, again, Jared Goff is on 607 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,879 Speaker 3: a mobile quarterback. He doesn't run, So when the lines 608 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,239 Speaker 3: ultimately cover and you have Jared Goff potentially kneeling at 609 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 3: the end of the game, that's negative yardage two. So 610 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with blessed than one and a half 611 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 3: rushing yards for Jared Goff. 612 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. So Jared Goff finally in another 613 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: under there from Ericson Finally he showed up again. So 614 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 1: Erickson's in on the over on Pacheco's rushing attempts fourteen 615 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 1: and a half, the over on kills fifty nine and 616 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,119 Speaker 1: a half receiving yards, the under on this twenty and 617 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 1: a half rushing attempts, and the under on the one 618 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards for Jared Goff. And then 619 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 1: of course Welsh is in on Travis Kelsey's receiving yards 620 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 1: over sixty one and a half, Justice Hill two and 621 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: a half, over on his reception total CMC receptions four 622 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 1: and a half. You like the over on this one, correct, Welsh, 623 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: I'm saying that correctly, was the over? And then you 624 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 1: like the kittle longest reception, which I think is a 625 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 1: great one. You highlighted there twenty four and a half. 626 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: You're getting minus one fifteen on that. So lots of 627 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: good bets here, But again we want to hear from you. 628 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 1: What are you in on? What are you betting on? 629 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 1: Drop in here. You can also join our discord Fantasypros 630 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 1: dot Com slash chat. We have the Betting Pros discord 631 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 1: available as well, so we love to get in there, 632 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,439 Speaker 1: and before you know it, we're gonna be talking Super 633 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,199 Speaker 1: Bowl pretty soon. My goodness, how time flies when you're 634 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 1: having fun. That'll do it for us. But the story 635 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: of the game goes on for Andrew Ericksson and the Welsh. 636 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, Gibz. 637 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 638 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 639 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 640 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 641 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 642 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 5: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.