Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 1: No one wants another tragedy. No one wants this to
Speaker 1: happen again. That's why it's regretful that Democrats have rushed
Speaker 1: to a markup today. Who soon, my friends, what the
Speaker 1: hell are you waiting for? The President will be talking
Speaker 1: more about this later Bloomberg Sound On, Politics, Policy and
Speaker 1: perspective from DC's top name. Here's the gun I carry
Speaker 1: every single day to protect myself. My family gun is
Speaker 1: not loaded. I'm at my house. I can do whatever
Speaker 1: I want. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: President Biden prepares to address the nation on gun violence.
Speaker 1: Tonight's welcome to the fastest hour in politics, as House
Speaker 1: Democrats get busy on crafting gun control legislation and talks
Speaker 1: continue on this same matter in the Senate following yet
Speaker 1: another mass shooting. We will discuss the nuances of this
Speaker 1: debate and why compromise remains elusive. Coming up with our
Speaker 1: panel of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick
Speaker 1: Davis are back with us today for the Hour. Later.
Speaker 1: A critical jobs report looming tomorrow with more clues on inflation,
Speaker 1: and maybe the Fed will talk about that with Bloomberg
Speaker 1: economist Andrew Huspy a bit later on. We are casting
Speaker 1: into the future today to better understand the two most
Speaker 1: important stories of the next twenty four hours. So I'm
Speaker 1: glad you joined us. Being President Biden right now is
Speaker 1: putting the finishing touches on an important speech and national
Speaker 1: address he will deliver tonight on gun violence. This was
Speaker 1: added to the schedule about halfway through the day. We
Speaker 1: did not know about this this morning. With a new
Speaker 1: sense of urgency following yet another shooting, this time in Tulsa,
Speaker 1: happened yesterday. Vice President Kamala Harris was asked about it
Speaker 1: earlier today. The President will be talking more about this
Speaker 1: later um, but we have been monitoring the situation quite closely,
Speaker 1: and the latest report, of course, is that for innocent
Speaker 1: people lost their lives and many more were injured. The
Speaker 1: President will speak at seven thirty pm Washington time. I
Speaker 1: suspect he will be on time, as there's a bit
Speaker 1: of a dance here the choreography with the TV networks.
Speaker 1: At that time of day, things get a little more sensitive,
Speaker 1: and it follows a long day for the House Judiciary Committee,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, debating and voting today on a package
Speaker 1: of gun control proposals that include raising the minimum age
Speaker 1: to buy semi automatic rifles, a ban on high capacity magazines,
Speaker 1: would ban bump stocks. These are the same issues that
Speaker 1: we've been talking about for a couple of days now.
Speaker 1: The ranking member on that committee, Congressman Jim Jordan's, chastise
Speaker 1: Democrats for moving too fast. No one wants another tragedy.
Speaker 1: No one wants this to happen again. That's why it's
Speaker 1: regretful that Democrats have rushed to a markup today and
Speaker 1: what seems more like political political theater than a real
Speaker 1: attempt at improving public safety or finding solutions. Chair Committee
Speaker 1: season very differently, as you might suspect New York Congressman
Speaker 1: Jerry Nadler with his response, too soon, my friends, what
Speaker 1: the hell are you waiting for? All right? Then? There
Speaker 1: are of course questions about whether any of these would
Speaker 1: have stopped any of the recent shootings. Any of these
Speaker 1: ideas from red flags two expanded background checks. We know
Speaker 1: moving the age would have stopped one of them, But
Speaker 1: yesterday's shooting in Tulsa a whole new scenario. As you
Speaker 1: heard Kamala Harris just say four people were killed. Wendell
Speaker 1: Franklin is the police chief in Tulsa. On June the one,
Speaker 1: Mr Lewis purchased a semi automatic rifle from a local
Speaker 1: gun store. That semi automatic rifle was an a R
Speaker 1: fifteen style rifle. He bought it the day before. Two doctors,
Speaker 1: including the shooters surgeon were killed, along with a receptionist
Speaker 1: and a patient. I want to assemble the panel to
Speaker 1: get the insights here, of course, at Jennie Chanzano and
Speaker 1: Rick Davis Bloombery politics contributors. Rick, I'm gonna start with you.
Speaker 1: The president is set to speak in a little more
Speaker 1: than two hours from now. Was it Tulsa that brought
Speaker 1: him to this point? And you know, there's a pretty
Speaker 1: high bar for going to the networks at this point,
Speaker 1: you know, following the the Obama administration, when you need
Speaker 1: half an hour of airtime on a Thursday night, that's right, Joe.
Speaker 1: I mean, we've now seen an air where presidents can
Speaker 1: give these kinds of prime time speeches and not be
Speaker 1: covered by the network. So the fact that this is
Speaker 1: now being covered is is a pretty excepting thing. Now,
Speaker 1: it's hard to tell what was the motivating factor. Obviously
Speaker 1: the Tulsa headlines is disturbing attack with an a R fifteen, Um,
Speaker 1: you know, matting, But I still think it might have
Speaker 1: as much to do with the national activity. You know, Rick,
Speaker 1: we're having a little bit of trouble with your line.
Speaker 1: Maybe we can reconnect with Rick and get the same
Speaker 1: question to Genie here and and we'll get back to
Speaker 1: Rick Davis and just to say, Congenie, uh, it's a
Speaker 1: big job for this president. What does he do at
Speaker 1: the time that he's carved out for himself. Well, what
Speaker 1: he's doing, I think, and you rightly said, we didn't
Speaker 1: know about this this morning. We didn't even know about
Speaker 1: this halfway through the day until they confirmed it. Because
Speaker 1: this is quite a change for the White House. Let's
Speaker 1: recall this president said he was going to let Congress
Speaker 1: do its work. He was not going to get to
Speaker 1: too involved. Now we know he is getting very much involved.
Speaker 1: So what they're saying he's going to do is he's
Speaker 1: going to press Congress on the need to pass common
Speaker 1: sense gun safety legislation. He's going to talk about this
Speaker 1: epidemic and what an epidemic it is. We're in the
Speaker 1: one and fifty third day of the year. This is
Speaker 1: the two and thirty third mass shooting, the one in
Speaker 1: Tulsa yesterday. Those numbers are outrageous. The twenty since you've
Speaker 1: all the ten days ago. So it is an epidemic
Speaker 1: and the president now is doing the only thing the
Speaker 1: president can do is to try to use the bully
Speaker 1: pulpit to get the public to push their representatives in
Speaker 1: Congress to pass legislation. And of course the clip you
Speaker 1: played by Jim Jordan's just astounding. We're moving too fast.
Speaker 1: I don't know how many more people need to be heard,
Speaker 1: or injured or killed before Congress moves. They haven't moved
Speaker 1: fast at all. They haven't moved in years. Think Jerry
Speaker 1: Nadler would agree with you on that, Rick Uh. If
Speaker 1: we don't get anything new here from the president, if
Speaker 1: he's simply urging Congress to act, then what is the
Speaker 1: point is it securing this particular audience. You have to
Speaker 1: have something to say when you interrupt, you know, jeopardy
Speaker 1: for people in their living room. That's right, And I
Speaker 1: think part of it is that the President wants to
Speaker 1: get ahead of what maybe some productive activity in the Senate.
Speaker 1: Um I think the House is really just partisan noise. Uh.
Speaker 1: It's part of the story today, and I agree with Jennie.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it doesn't doesn't pretend any progress.
Speaker 1: But the real game is in the Senate, and there
Speaker 1: is a bipartisan effort being put together to try and
Speaker 1: find a bill that both Republicans and Democrats can sign
Speaker 1: on too. And I think that's what the President is
Speaker 1: really trying to do, is create momentum around getting something
Speaker 1: done in the Senate um and all these things are
Speaker 1: being forced into the same timetable, and so the more
Speaker 1: pressure that he can put on the Senate to come
Speaker 1: up with something and not let people back off the table,
Speaker 1: I think is is his real primary objective here. How
Speaker 1: does he do this genie without isolating, for lack of
Speaker 1: a better word, half of the country. He needs to
Speaker 1: speak in a way that cuts through the sort of
Speaker 1: partisan cliche that comes with gun control conversations. And this
Speaker 1: is a president who has been written off by many
Speaker 1: Americans when it comes to this, and that's the difficulty
Speaker 1: he faces. He ran promising to bring us together after
Speaker 1: January six, in the midst of the pandemic. He said
Speaker 1: he was going to unite us, you know, go beyond
Speaker 1: this red blue divide, and this is a real test
Speaker 1: for him to see if he can do it, you know,
Speaker 1: reach something like a unification we saw potentially in response
Speaker 1: to Russia's invasion of Ukraine or in response to nine eleven,
Speaker 1: but very tough to do. You know, one model he has,
Speaker 1: quite frankly is is the Senator from Connecticut, Chris Murphy,
Speaker 1: who's talked about the fact that following Sandy Hook he
Speaker 1: was drawing a line in the sand. This is what
Speaker 1: had to happen, Go bigger, go home. Now he is
Speaker 1: saying he wants to show Republicans that if they do
Speaker 1: even small incremental steps on gun safety, that they will
Speaker 1: benefit from that and the country will as well, and
Speaker 1: they'll be rewarded. So I think he can use Chris
Speaker 1: Murphy's smart tactic as a way to do that. But
Speaker 1: a really, really tough thing to do because of course,
Speaker 1: people have very strong concerns that the government is coming
Speaker 1: after their guns any time you talk about this issue.
Speaker 1: So how does he keep that from happening? Even if
Speaker 1: he says it right, people won't believe him. If you're
Speaker 1: sitting down here advising Joe Biden helping him to craft
Speaker 1: this speech. How does he breakthrough with Republicans, with conservatives,
Speaker 1: with people who actually own gun who feel like they
Speaker 1: are the ones being targeted. Yeah, I think it is
Speaker 1: a high wire act. What the President's got to do tonight,
Speaker 1: as you describe Joe, is to push for some changes
Speaker 1: in the way we regulate firearms and and to incorporate
Speaker 1: other things that Republicans may want on things like mental
Speaker 1: health and school safety. But he's got to do it
Speaker 1: in a way that you know, he's bigger than a
Speaker 1: piece of legislation, and he's really speaking for the American
Speaker 1: people that want action, because by and large, most people
Speaker 1: do want something to happen. They they agree with Genie
Speaker 1: that this is an epidemic, that it's out of control,
Speaker 1: that that that states and the federal government all have
Speaker 1: to work together to try and protect children and the
Speaker 1: loss of life. Uh and and so he does have
Speaker 1: some winded is back in that regard, but it's it's ephemeral.
Speaker 1: It will go away soon if nothing is done on
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill. So he's got to leave enough of an opening.
Speaker 1: He can't demogogue it to the point where you know,
Speaker 1: Republicans a Senate feel like they've been trapped and now
Speaker 1: walk away from the negotiating table. He's been emotional at
Speaker 1: times talking about this publicly. Genie. I don't know if
Speaker 1: that works or not. I don't know if raising your
Speaker 1: voice in an expressing frustration works. Those are two things
Speaker 1: that we've seen from Joe Biden. What's the posture the
Speaker 1: tone is it? Is it one of empathy for victims
Speaker 1: or or does he need to look into the camera
Speaker 1: and speak to law abiding gun owners self described and
Speaker 1: tell them that it's time for a new reality. I
Speaker 1: do think he's got to be empathetic. Nobody better able
Speaker 1: to do that than Joe Biden with the losses he
Speaker 1: has personally experienced in his life with his children and
Speaker 1: his first wife. That said, I think he does need
Speaker 1: to reach across the aisle and to say that these
Speaker 1: are things that in some cases of American support. Let's
Speaker 1: start there. The danger here, of course, is that if
Speaker 1: they don't get anywhere, and we've talked about the fact
Speaker 1: I am not optimistic they will. If they don't get
Speaker 1: anywhere in Congress, he's going to end up looking weaker.
Speaker 1: So he's really putting himself and I think quite frankly
Speaker 1: his presidency on the line, rightly so tonight and coming
Speaker 1: out and saying Congress, you must act, and and you know,
Speaker 1: let's just mention that Mitch McConnell twice now has talked
Speaker 1: about this issue and has not wanted to talk about weapons.
Speaker 1: He wants to talk safety and mental health, no weapons,
Speaker 1: movement on weapons. That's going to be a problem for
Speaker 1: the for the president. Well, but then that's gonna be
Speaker 1: a problem for a lot of other people here. Rick.
Speaker 1: If if red flags and say banning bump stocks are
Speaker 1: not enough for Joe Biden, if he does not seem
Speaker 1: satisfied with that, then people may well think that he
Speaker 1: wants actual gun control, eliminating access to certain weapons. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I would be surprised if tonight's speech gets into specifics
Speaker 1: of legislation. I think he wants to leave the door
Speaker 1: open for the Senate to work their will. And I
Speaker 1: would say that the point that Senator McConnell's making is
Speaker 1: it in addition to whatever comes out of this negotiation,
Speaker 1: he wants to focus on mental health and school safety.
Speaker 1: I think there will be some things like red flag
Speaker 1: laws and potentially bump stocks and uh uh in in
Speaker 1: any piece of legislation that would be considered by part
Speaker 1: Rick and Jeannie. Stay with us for the hour on
Speaker 1: sound on. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg, So On
Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The House set to
Speaker 1: vote on gun control legislation next week. According to Speaker
Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi, it includes raising the age to buy a
Speaker 1: semi automatic weapon from eighteen to twenty one, something a
Speaker 1: lot of people were calling for after Valdi remembering he
Speaker 1: bought those two rifles when he was eighteen years old.
Speaker 1: The House also to hold a hearing on banning assault weapons.
Speaker 1: That wasn't so much the idea today though the as
Speaker 1: I mentioned a little bit earlier in the broadcast a
Speaker 1: package of legislation before the Judiciary Committee. It was a
Speaker 1: markup session and includes raising the minimum age, also banning
Speaker 1: bump stocks, and would also ban high pacity magazine. So
Speaker 1: they went back and forth on this. Democrats and Republicans
Speaker 1: could not agree, and the whole thing came to a crescendo,
Speaker 1: if I can use that term. When Congressman Greg Steuby,
Speaker 1: a Republican from Florida, ended up speaking for a while
Speaker 1: he was at home. He's on zoom. And actually, if
Speaker 1: you listen to this program, you know Greg Stuby. He's
Speaker 1: an Army veteran. He served in Iraq. He's been on
Speaker 1: sound on. We've talked to him before. UH didn't know
Speaker 1: he was carrying a gun. It was apparently he does
Speaker 1: carry one every day, and well he's got a lot
Speaker 1: of guns, as we learned today. We're gonna just let
Speaker 1: you hear what happened in the hearing and then we'll
Speaker 1: bring Rick and Genie back in UH for their take
Speaker 1: on this. Listen to Congressman Stuby when his turn came
Speaker 1: up to talk about this legislation. He was specifically referring
Speaker 1: to the elimination of these larger magazines for guns. So
Speaker 1: imagine he's looking at the zoom cam. He's he's behind
Speaker 1: his desk, and he's place holding a gun right up
Speaker 1: to the camera. Here we go, right here in front
Speaker 1: of me, I have a six sour P two two
Speaker 1: six comes with a twenty one round magazine. This gun
Speaker 1: would be banned. Here's a here's a twelve round magazine.
Speaker 1: This magazine would be banned under this current bill. It
Speaker 1: doesn't fit. He's trying it. He's showing how the magazine
Speaker 1: goes in the gun for a twenty round twenty one
Speaker 1: round magazine. This gun would be banned, okay under this bill.
Speaker 1: Different gun. Here's a six so hour three twenty takes
Speaker 1: a twenty round magazine, okay, takes a twenty round magazine,
Speaker 1: takes the magazine out. Here's a twelve round magazine banned
Speaker 1: because it would be banned. This gun would be banned
Speaker 1: under this bill. Okay. Here's a gun I carry every
Speaker 1: single day to protect myself. This is the family, my
Speaker 1: wife every day home. This is a Excel six hour.
Speaker 1: Here's a seven round magazine, which last. Then what would
Speaker 1: be lawful under this bill? If this bill would come off,
Speaker 1: It doesn't fit. This gun would be banned. The gun
Speaker 1: is not loaded loaded. What I'm at my house, I
Speaker 1: can do whatever I want with Congressman Greg Stuby. This
Speaker 1: is the kind of stuff. I forget who it was.
Speaker 1: Aaron Rupert tweeted, read the room the kind of stuff
Speaker 1: that gets people talking, which is why he did it.
Speaker 1: And it gives you a good sense of where we
Speaker 1: are in this debate. As we bring Rick and Genie
Speaker 1: back in here. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis Jeannie Schanzano,
Speaker 1: did that advance the debate here, Genie, or remind you
Speaker 1: why we haven't gotten anywhere with any of this yet. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, I wonder did Jim Jordan's talk about political
Speaker 1: theater when his colleague was doing that? Yeah, not not
Speaker 1: in response to that. But let's just look at what
Speaker 1: Lucy macbeth from Georgia talked about. She talked about the
Speaker 1: toll that this has taken not only in the country,
Speaker 1: but her her seventeen year old son was killed ten
Speaker 1: years ago by a gunman, and so you know that
Speaker 1: is the reality of this. You know, yes, you have
Speaker 1: a constitutional right under the Second Amendment to bear arms,
Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean that you can't take common sense
Speaker 1: steps and to wave your guns around on a zoom
Speaker 1: call as a congressman to what end beyond getting your
Speaker 1: name in the headlines. And he will likely get money
Speaker 1: and attention from this, which is why they do this.
Speaker 1: And the wheel goes round. Rick, You've been through a
Speaker 1: lot of congressional hearings. Can you do whatever you want
Speaker 1: when you're at home, including swing guns around? Well, I
Speaker 1: must admit I've never been to a congressional hearing where
Speaker 1: they did it from home. This is all new fair enough,
Speaker 1: thank you COVID. Yes, it is the kind of thing
Speaker 1: that is a is a result of that. So yeah,
Speaker 1: now this is really uh, it's not it's grandstanding. There's
Speaker 1: plenty of that at congressional hearings. And just certainly in
Speaker 1: the first time, it's the first time I think we've
Speaker 1: seen a member of Congress plane with a loaded pistol,
Speaker 1: several of them. Yeah, in a congressional hearing. So um,
Speaker 1: that that was breaking some new ground for me. But look,
Speaker 1: I mean it's it is that way the House of
Speaker 1: Representative been working. The Democrats put a you know, completely
Speaker 1: partisan bill on the floor, and so it's a free
Speaker 1: pass for Republicans to you know, demagogue against it. It's
Speaker 1: not productive, it doesn't move the process forward. Uh. And
Speaker 1: as as you point out, you know, it's just it's
Speaker 1: just entertainment value. And if it wasn't for such an
Speaker 1: important topic. Does he have a point though that? I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm assuming the real message he was trying to send,
Speaker 1: other than that he has lots of big guns, uh,
Speaker 1: is that Democrats don't understand what they're talking about, that
Speaker 1: they don't know enough about guns to regulate them. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think there's some of that. That's partially the message,
Speaker 1: but but I think it also points to UH a
Speaker 1: fact that where do you stop? Right? I mean, the
Speaker 1: point he's trying to make is, Okay, if this magazine
Speaker 1: fits into the law that you've just you know, voted on,
Speaker 1: then then what's to stop you from then changing that
Speaker 1: to another magazine? And and and that is the sort
Speaker 1: of constant Republican UH dialogue about banning assault weapons and
Speaker 1: things like that, is that it's just that, you know,
Speaker 1: the nose under the camel's nose under the tent, and
Speaker 1: and just keeps going from there. I would say he's
Speaker 1: kind of making a point that's helping the Democrats, which
Speaker 1: is when he holds up an assault rifle and say, see,
Speaker 1: you know this, this kind of magazine won't fit in this.
Speaker 1: I think the Democrats heads were not going, yeah, that's
Speaker 1: exactly exactly. I don't know, and they were all pistols.
Speaker 1: For what it's worth, Genie, is there something to democrats
Speaker 1: own knowledge? Could they learn a little more about the
Speaker 1: item they're trying to regulator? Am I missing the point? Well? No,
Speaker 1: I think that's an important point. And you know, I think. Adam,
Speaker 1: kissing her over the weekend, said something I think is
Speaker 1: really important, which is that people who support gun rights
Speaker 1: and the right to bear arms are the ones who
Speaker 1: should focus on common sense steps towards securing them, because otherwise,
Speaker 1: if this continues at this rate, those rights can be
Speaker 1: severely restricted. And gun owners don't want that, they should
Speaker 1: step up and regulate. Rick and Jennie stay with us.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from our nation's capital, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: to Knew You, Bloomberg eleven, trio to Boston, Bloomberg one
Speaker 1: O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine six to
Speaker 1: the country, Serious XM Channel one, and around the globe,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew. The smallest gain
Speaker 1: in job growth since April of last year. That is
Speaker 1: what we expect to see tomorrow morning when the Labor
Speaker 1: Department drops the granddaddy of all economic reports. We're gonna
Speaker 1: talk about May jobs Ahead with Andrew Huspy of Bloomberg Economics.
Speaker 1: That did not take long for the Fed the headline
Speaker 1: on our Job's Day Preview Here on the terminal may
Speaker 1: jobs to show early impact of FED tightening. Wow. And indeed,
Speaker 1: if you look at the numbers here, we're not expecting
Speaker 1: what we have been getting three hundred thousand increased non
Speaker 1: farm payrolls expected following four D twenty eight thousand a
Speaker 1: month earlier. And we're joining to talk about an because
Speaker 1: people are gonna be reading tea leaves, maybe too many
Speaker 1: tea leaves when this comes out for insights into inflation
Speaker 1: and indeed the impacts of the FED joining us to
Speaker 1: talk about it. One of the authors of that column,
Speaker 1: Andrew Husby, is here from Bloomberg Economics. Andrew, we're gonna
Speaker 1: start seeing this slow down in hiring as you write
Speaker 1: the early impact of FED tightening, Will we also see
Speaker 1: a slowdown in wages? Well? That uh, well, thanks Joe.
Speaker 1: That that really is the question here, So slow down
Speaker 1: and hiring. Um. It could be, um, that it's just
Speaker 1: simply still very hard to find workers. Um. It could
Speaker 1: also be that demand for labor is actually cooling, and
Speaker 1: that's something that FED is kind of trying to pull
Speaker 1: off at the hikes rates. It wants to realigned demand
Speaker 1: for labor, realigned demand for a whole range of goods,
Speaker 1: downward in line with the supply, which is still pretty
Speaker 1: restricted right now. So we do think we're gonna see
Speaker 1: a downshift in wage growth. Actually, we've seen that over
Speaker 1: the last three months. The pace of average hourly earning
Speaker 1: his growth, that's one of the numbers we get in
Speaker 1: this report, has downshifted over really since February. So, um,
Speaker 1: you know, early signs that labor demand is cooling. But
Speaker 1: certainly there's nothing in this report that's going to shake
Speaker 1: the head off of tightening moves of at least fifty
Speaker 1: basis points in the next couple of meetings. Okay, so
Speaker 1: they're going to continue this and I guess the comments
Speaker 1: from Lele Brainerd really hit that home earlier today. I'm
Speaker 1: really struck by the range though, and they've been wide lately.
Speaker 1: This might not be as wide as what we had
Speaker 1: last month, but two hundred and forty k to four
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty k UH is the you know, the
Speaker 1: median is three five. But it's it's interesting to gauge
Speaker 1: the uncertainty that economists have right now. Yeah, and that's
Speaker 1: been certainly true throughout much of the pandemic. Economists, uh,
Speaker 1: many months have not been the best guide to the
Speaker 1: actual number, and it's really just a function of a
Speaker 1: few things. Of course, the pandemic itself, um, and uh
Speaker 1: creating swings and jobs. And also you know, the statistical
Speaker 1: agencies just have trouble um, you know, figuring out what
Speaker 1: exactly is going on, and that's been sort of notable
Speaker 1: in a in a lot of revisions to the data.
Speaker 1: So it's not only are you trying to get the
Speaker 1: current month's number, but you're trying to account for the
Speaker 1: fact that data may have been shifts in the in
Speaker 1: the prime months. So we talked about the evening outs. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we've talked about some wild statistics in terms of job
Speaker 1: openings as well. Andrew, I'm sorry to interrupt, Just like
Speaker 1: you know, there are two jobs for every job seeker
Speaker 1: in this country right now, where we're going to see
Speaker 1: participation move exactly. Yeah, so, um, you know, the the
Speaker 1: incentives should be there. Wage growth is high and still rising,
Speaker 1: even though you know, potentially the growth sequentially is kind
Speaker 1: of slowing. Um, So we do expect to see a
Speaker 1: pickup in participation. It kind of dropped sort of quirkily
Speaker 1: last month, but we do think certainly primage workers, you know,
Speaker 1: the one caveat, of course, is we have seen in
Speaker 1: May and now into June there is a bit of
Speaker 1: a pickup in sake COVID case counts that's been less
Speaker 1: of a factor, and we think it will be less
Speaker 1: of a factor. But as you're thinking about a sixty
Speaker 1: thou jobs here, hundred thousand there um, that that could
Speaker 1: be a stealth reason to think that we might get
Speaker 1: a soft number in May as well. I have to
Speaker 1: ask you about the R word and and specifically with
Speaker 1: regard to the comments from Jamie Diamond. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you heard this yesterday. I'm sure you did. The
Speaker 1: hurricane uh line that that really spooked a lot of investors.
Speaker 1: He was speaking at the Annual Strategic Decisions Conference in
Speaker 1: New York. Here's Jamie Diamond. It's a hurricane. It's right now,
Speaker 1: it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. You know,
Speaker 1: everyone thinks that the Fed can handle this. That hurricane
Speaker 1: is right out there down the road coming our way.
Speaker 1: We just don't know if it's a minor one or
Speaker 1: superstorm Sandy or ye Sandy or or Andrew or something
Speaker 1: like that. And it's you. You better brace yourself, brace yourself. Andrew.
Speaker 1: Those comments really spooked a lot of people. This is
Speaker 1: someone who has unique insights into what's happening in the economy. Uh,
Speaker 1: is it sunny right now? We can be in the
Speaker 1: midst of a storm in a couple of months. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Our our team's view is, um, it's not a very
Speaker 1: near term problem, being a recession that is. But certainly
Speaker 1: as you think about you know, the FED is marching
Speaker 1: rates higher, You're seeing the housing market respond a bit, um,
Speaker 1: you're seeing the good sector respond a bit. So I
Speaker 1: think for some sectors it may start to feel that way,
Speaker 1: but I think for the the economy as a whole.
Speaker 1: And you pointed that statistic earlier about how strong job
Speaker 1: openings are um and and that's going to be tough
Speaker 1: to reverse in in the matter of a few months.
Speaker 1: But certainly looking out in h two three and and
Speaker 1: certainly into is of course, the FED is really signaling
Speaker 1: it's going to be moving rates into restricted territory. That's
Speaker 1: really when our team is is eyeing a higher recession risks.
Speaker 1: So we're still monitoring that, but certainly not the next
Speaker 1: few months issue for us barring him at a shock.
Speaker 1: So with that said that Lal Brainerds has has turned
Speaker 1: us away from this idea of a September pause. Is
Speaker 1: that how you feel exactly? Yeah, that that's what our
Speaker 1: team puts a pretty short shrift on those remarks about
Speaker 1: a pause. Those came up last week from the Atlanta
Speaker 1: Fed's Bostick, and really there we're just thinking it is
Speaker 1: a high bar there is. Bostick is among the more
Speaker 1: devish leaning officials, and even here I don't think he's
Speaker 1: saying it's it's a definite um. And certainly the rest
Speaker 1: of the committee is not is not going to see
Speaker 1: the evidence that we think they're given. We'll get a
Speaker 1: new inflation number next week, and then that's probably gonna
Speaker 1: be running quite hot. Unemployment rate holds at three point
Speaker 1: six per uh. That's just a hair above the the
Speaker 1: immediate pre pandemic low of three and a half. As
Speaker 1: you point out, that's a victory lap for the White House, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, most people don't talk about the participation rate.
Speaker 1: You know, over dinner here Andrew, the President will be
Speaker 1: able to say, we've still got one of the lowest
Speaker 1: unemployment rates in history. Yeah, that they certainly can um.
Speaker 1: And unemployment is quite low. UM. But of course consumers
Speaker 1: are are feeling the pinch of the high inflation, and
Speaker 1: that's showing up in uh him in surveys which which
Speaker 1: normally track the labor market pretty well. Normally you'd think
Speaker 1: sentiment would be pretty high right now, but it's it's
Speaker 1: quite low, just again because of because of inflation. But
Speaker 1: as certainly as we head towards the election, that sort
Speaker 1: of the mix of those two factors is going to
Speaker 1: h help determine the balance of power after mid terms.
Speaker 1: Andrew Husby, when for an expert like you, what's the
Speaker 1: first number you look at in this report in the morning.
Speaker 1: I'm assuming it's not the headline. Uh No, it's uh,
Speaker 1: it's certainly the headline is one of those numbers we do, uh,
Speaker 1: we do take a look at, but it's it's much
Speaker 1: more of a holistic report. You're looking at participation. You're
Speaker 1: looking to see whether the unemployment rates moved up there
Speaker 1: down for the right reasons. And I think for this report,
Speaker 1: we really are buying that wage number. If we do
Speaker 1: see some cooling, that will take potentially some pressure off
Speaker 1: the Fed to really have to crush the economy with
Speaker 1: rate hikes later this year. And it's next great prim
Speaker 1: er there, Andrew Husby. We do appreciate it. Find his
Speaker 1: work on the terminal Bloomberg Economics and now you know
Speaker 1: what number to look for first thing in the morning.
Speaker 1: Reassembled the panel next with Rick and Jennie. I'm Joe Matthew.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg, This is Bloomberg. So no with Joe
Speaker 1: Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. They reportedly would not take President
Speaker 1: Biden's call in riyadd a couple of months back, and
Speaker 1: while the White House says those reports are untrue, it
Speaker 1: now appears the President will be making a trip to
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, which Joe Biden vowed remember as a candidate,
Speaker 1: to make a pariah on the world stage following the
Speaker 1: Kashogi murder. New York Times now following Bloomberg's reporting, we
Speaker 1: told you it was likely going to happen. Peter Baker
Speaker 1: now reports that the President's will in fact travel to
Speaker 1: Ridd this month to rebuild relations with the oil rich
Speaker 1: kingdom at a time when he's seeking the lower gas
Speaker 1: prices at home and isolate Russia abroad. We reassembled the
Speaker 1: panel from more on this Rick, They of us in
Speaker 1: Genie Chanzano or Bloomberg Politics contributors this is a good idea,
Speaker 1: Rick to show up in riyadd Is that better than, say,
Speaker 1: going to Venezuela. It's yes, it's better than going to
Speaker 1: Venezuela because the Saudis can actually impact the price of
Speaker 1: gas if they increase their production, and Venezuela can't. So
Speaker 1: I think they've at least picked the right outcome if
Speaker 1: they're looking for change. But this has been a confused process. They,
Speaker 1: as you point out, reached out early and got rebuked. Uh,
Speaker 1: not only rebuked, but there's some indications that you know,
Speaker 1: MBS wouldn't take Biden's call, but he would take Vladimir
Speaker 1: Putin's call. So not to get on the wrong side
Speaker 1: of history. It sounds like they're getting it back to
Speaker 1: where it needs to be. Well, how do you not
Speaker 1: get on the wrong side of history with this move, Genie?
Speaker 1: How do you how do you handle the optics here?
Speaker 1: We're not going to get an apology from MBS. No,
Speaker 1: he's not. And you know, we started this week with
Speaker 1: the op ed on inflation, the op ed on Ukraine
Speaker 1: and this you know, announcement today. Finally, as you talked
Speaker 1: about earlier this week that he was gonna go Biden
Speaker 1: is going to go meet with MBS is very much
Speaker 1: tied into those two things. He is getting killed on inflation,
Speaker 1: there's not much he can do about that. This war
Speaker 1: in Ukraine looks like it's going to go on and
Speaker 1: on for a long period of time. Both of those
Speaker 1: things terribly impacting oil. So this I think is really
Speaker 1: a recognition by the White House that they are in
Speaker 1: a very precarious domestic political and geopolitical state at this point.
Speaker 1: So they are now forced to go do something they
Speaker 1: did not want to do. Saudi Arabia is in a
Speaker 1: power position, and speaking of Venezuela, we did try to
Speaker 1: go pressure, you know, go release those sanctions or ease
Speaker 1: them up, get their oil. We've tried to push OPEC.
Speaker 1: The announcement from OPEC plus today, it's not going to
Speaker 1: impact consumer prices at the pump that much. That's the
Speaker 1: reality that Biden is dealing with. So he's gonna have
Speaker 1: to swallow what he said about the Pariahis state and
Speaker 1: go over there. And it's gonna be fa sscinating to
Speaker 1: see how they try to sell this because it's their
Speaker 1: own constituents, particularly reporters, frustrated rightly so, by the horrific
Speaker 1: murder who are pressuring him not to do this, and
Speaker 1: they're gonna do it now, And this is going to
Speaker 1: be big news for this trip. It will a great
Speaker 1: line from Peter Baker Rick, the visit represents the triumph
Speaker 1: of real politic over moral outrage. And it really does
Speaker 1: come down to that. Right. So, if we've decided that
Speaker 1: MBS is someone we need to deal with because we
Speaker 1: don't like five dollar regallon gas, what are the optics
Speaker 1: of this trip? Does he does? Does he do a
Speaker 1: photo op with him? I mean, is this is going
Speaker 1: to happen behind the scenes? How would you handle it? Yeah?
Speaker 1: First of all, it's going to play out publicly because
Speaker 1: there's just no way to avoid it. That plane is
Speaker 1: gonna land to get the big rivals ceremony is gonna
Speaker 1: come out, right, and so and Peter Baker is right
Speaker 1: in the sense that it is a it is a
Speaker 1: debate of real politic, which is which is void of
Speaker 1: uh those values, but but but but it's it's about
Speaker 1: our values, and our values are our interests, and so
Speaker 1: to compromise on those in order to try and solve
Speaker 1: an economic problem at home is nothing but an elixir
Speaker 1: for for failure in the future. I mean, NBS, the
Speaker 1: leader of Saudi Arabia is going to be in the
Speaker 1: crown position for the next fifty years and we are
Speaker 1: going to have to deal with that as a key
Speaker 1: strategic player in this region. But when you then start
Speaker 1: saying one of those things that's valuable to us is
Speaker 1: the price of gasoline and we're willing to you know,
Speaker 1: uh cow taw to him because of that, I think
Speaker 1: you've put it on a very uneven keel. And our
Speaker 1: values are at risk here and it never works well
Speaker 1: for a president who sets his values aside for real politics.
Speaker 1: During his stop in Riya Jinih, we understand the president
Speaker 1: will meet as well after MBS with leaders of other
Speaker 1: Arab nations, including Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and the U a E.
Speaker 1: Do do we try to make this look more like
Speaker 1: a regional summit than to sit down with a bad guy.
Speaker 1: That's what they're going to try to do. And early
Speaker 1: on this with Couched as you know, a preparation for
Speaker 1: a visit to Israel. Um that has now changed very much,
Speaker 1: you know, And and let's look at what's happening. You know,
Speaker 1: the president has pressed Venezuela, has pressed OPEC, plus now
Speaker 1: he's turning to Saudi Arabia. These are some of the
Speaker 1: worst regimes in the world for human rights, but he's
Speaker 1: turning to them. But what he's not doing is something
Speaker 1: that Rick talked about, I think it was earlier this
Speaker 1: week or last week, pushing for more domestic production. So
Speaker 1: you know, it really really shows you what he is
Speaker 1: willing to do and what he's not willing to do.
Speaker 1: And I think a real question that has to be
Speaker 1: asked at this point is was it possible. Was it
Speaker 1: a mistake for them to conflate the issue of the
Speaker 1: murder and the need for for oil quite frankly could
Speaker 1: they had not have dealt with these as two separate issues,
Speaker 1: But they did that several years ago before he was
Speaker 1: in office, and they haven't been willing to step back
Speaker 1: from it. And now he finds himself in a really,
Speaker 1: really difficult position, but he won't go against the Green
Speaker 1: folks on his on his party and push for more
Speaker 1: domestic production. At this point, it's not yet so what happened.
Speaker 1: He's gonna get killed for this though, by a human
Speaker 1: rights activists, by progressive Democrats in Washington. Does he not
Speaker 1: care anymore? Is more important to get gas prices down. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: just really quickly. You know, he is going to get
Speaker 1: killed on it. And let's remember, for a president, this
Speaker 1: is the worst case scenario. This is not just members
Speaker 1: of his you know, progressive wing or his own party.
Speaker 1: These are reporters who have been lobbying against a visit
Speaker 1: like this because of course it was a horrible, gruesome
Speaker 1: murder and he is going to have to stand up
Speaker 1: to that kind of pressure. But he's made the decision
Speaker 1: that as president, he has to relieve the pressure at
Speaker 1: the pump for Americans. But again, you go back several
Speaker 1: years on this. It's the United States. It's Europe's policies
Speaker 1: towards Audi Arabia that got us into this position in
Speaker 1: the first place. He's not gonna make his his own
Speaker 1: party happy, here is he? Rick, No, he's not gonna
Speaker 1: make his own party happy. And he's not gonna make
Speaker 1: the oil patch happy. I mean, like, here's an interesting
Speaker 1: unification of liberal Democrats and and and and oil executives,
Speaker 1: all of whom basically are opposed to this one solution.
Speaker 1: And I would just remind everybody that for the nineteen
Speaker 1: eighties and nineteen nineties. We basically the Republican Party used
Speaker 1: the fact that we were buying all this oil from
Speaker 1: despotic regimes as a national security threat and it allowed
Speaker 1: us to then you know, open up the taps for
Speaker 1: fracking and the oil patch. That will led us to
Speaker 1: one of the greatest economic revivals of our time. We
Speaker 1: need to find new sources of energy that are not hydrocarbons.
Speaker 1: But in the meantime, if he wants a solution and
Speaker 1: he's not looking domestically, he's making a huge mistake, you know,
Speaker 1: to think and Genie mentioned this. We started this week
Speaker 1: with the notp ed from President Biden on inflation. This
Speaker 1: was supposed to be the troops are out here, all
Speaker 1: hands on deck. We spoke earlier this week with Genes Spurling. Uh,
Speaker 1: Brian Deese has been out, members of the Economic Counsel,
Speaker 1: the President himself trying to get ahead of that story
Speaker 1: has been very difficult for this administration here, Jeanie. Every
Speaker 1: time they want to pivot to the economy, Ukraine happens,
Speaker 1: or in this case, Vivaldi happens. Yeah, and we've heard
Speaker 1: a number of reports, you know, NBC had won the
Speaker 1: Washington Post about frustration not unusual in any White House,
Speaker 1: but in this White House with aids who are you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of infighting as to what they can do
Speaker 1: because his numbers are not moving at all, so their effort.
Speaker 1: You know, we're still early in June. This is gonna
Speaker 1: be a whole month on inflation apparently, um so, maybe
Speaker 1: they'll have some luck, but it's going to be an
Speaker 1: uphill battle. And one of the things that we're hearing,
Speaker 1: of course, is that much of what this president does
Speaker 1: is sort of old fashion. If you will make a speech,
Speaker 1: do a not ed, do a photo op. You know,
Speaker 1: does he need to do something different? Does he need
Speaker 1: to sort of break out of the traditional block of
Speaker 1: the way presidents have, you know, address things, you know,
Speaker 1: social media, you know, I I don't know, maybe he
Speaker 1: should come on the podcast. I don't know. I don't know,
Speaker 1: but you know, there because this is not breaking through
Speaker 1: and of course, you know, communications are not going to
Speaker 1: end inflation, but certainly the president is feeling very frustrated.
Speaker 1: At least so far. This June focus is you know,
Speaker 1: not move the needle at all. I'll tell you what,
Speaker 1: President Biden has a standing invitation here at Bloomberg. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure that that's happened. You want to speak directly
Speaker 1: to the markets, Mr President, I know you love this
Speaker 1: program already. We'd love to have you here to do that. Rick,
Speaker 1: is Genie onto something there is that? Does President need
Speaker 1: to go live on Twitter? Stand on his head? What
Speaker 1: does he do to to approach us in a different
Speaker 1: way from the sort of analog concept of a primetime
Speaker 1: address in writing an op ed in a newspaper. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, look the bully pulp. It's a good thing
Speaker 1: to have. It's part of the best aspect of the
Speaker 1: presidency is that you can speak directly to the American
Speaker 1: people without much of a press filter. That being said,
Speaker 1: I mean, he himself has said we've got to take
Speaker 1: action as an administration on various elements of both legislative
Speaker 1: and executive action in order to curb inflation. And so
Speaker 1: instead of doing that, he's hopping on a plane and
Speaker 1: going to Saudi Arabia to beg for lower oil prices. So,
Speaker 1: I mean, like, where's the initiative from his administration? I mean,
Speaker 1: I've read those same articles Dannie did about, you know,
Speaker 1: discontent in the White House, and and it seems to
Speaker 1: me they're just pencils down, and you know, taking a
Speaker 1: trip to Saudi Arabia is bad optics for a president
Speaker 1: who already is very unpopular, and it's only gonna get
Speaker 1: worse for him. And if he loses his credibility with
Speaker 1: the American people on this issue, it won't matter what
Speaker 1: what measures he takes. Every time he speaks, people will
Speaker 1: turn off the set pencils down, says Rick Genie. I'm
Speaker 1: wondering is it gonna be until after the mid terms
Speaker 1: before we start to see uh more departures from the
Speaker 1: White House? And we had Jen Saki obviously a high
Speaker 1: profile one, but these advisers who have left the president upset.
Speaker 1: How how many more months does this go on? You know?
Speaker 1: I think we will start to see more more again,
Speaker 1: not unusual departures from the White House, people seeing they
Speaker 1: have to focus on their family, go back to the
Speaker 1: private sector whatever. It will be not unusual, but the
Speaker 1: frustration makes that worse. And I think we're starting to
Speaker 1: see some of that breakage already. Rick and Jeanne, great conversation,
Speaker 1: as always our signature panel on Bloomberg Sound On. We'll
Speaker 1: meet you back here tomorrow, the fastest hour in politics,
Speaker 1: and will distill the address from President Biden. See where
Speaker 1: we are. Then it starts seven thirty. This is Bloomberg