Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What comes Up a weekly markets podcast.
Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg and I'm Aldana Higher across asset reporter with Bloomberk.
Speaker 1: And this week on the show, well the ink was
Speaker 1: barely dry on all those headlines saying that the SMP
Speaker 1: five was in a bear market last week and then
Speaker 1: it began to rebound a bit, and we never did
Speaker 1: get a closing price that was or more below the
Speaker 1: indexes last record in January. So was that it bear
Speaker 1: market canceled and the loads are in? Well maybe not.
Speaker 1: We'll talk with the chief investment officer who was not
Speaker 1: so sure, and thanks that we're in store for a
Speaker 1: bit of a cruel summer for stocks. But first, Viltanna,
Speaker 1: I need to let the listeners know that you're actually
Speaker 1: in jolly old England as as we speak. Yep, I'm
Speaker 1: in London. How's that going. I'm having a lot of fun.
Speaker 1: The Bloomberg office is so huge and it just looks
Speaker 1: like it's never ending. So I just keep getting lost
Speaker 1: and running into the same people over and over and
Speaker 1: asking them for help, and they're like, I already told you.
Speaker 1: I can't help you, So then I just keep moving
Speaker 1: on to the next person and the next person and
Speaker 1: the next person, and I never never ever find my desks.
Speaker 1: That's kind of like how you are in New York too,
Speaker 1: though even worse here. Honestly, I'm just wandering around all
Speaker 1: the time, like on the streets, in the office, the mess.
Speaker 1: But I'm having a lot of fun. Those friendly Brits,
Speaker 1: I'm sure are staring in the right direction. But then
Speaker 1: I gotta say, we did get two more reviews in
Speaker 1: of the podcast on Apple Podcast. I don't know your
Speaker 1: coercion strategies work. It is. Let me just read this
Speaker 1: one to you. Five stars to vill Donna for keeping
Speaker 1: Mike and check. I don't know what that means. I
Speaker 1: don't know what that that's referring to great podcast, one
Speaker 1: of my favorites. They also volunteered to be a tour
Speaker 1: guide to either of us if we are ever in
Speaker 1: San Diego. I could use that a few weeks ago.
Speaker 1: But I love San Diego. It's my number one favorite
Speaker 1: city in the world. I think number one. Yeah, you
Speaker 1: know why, because this person just gave you five stars.
Speaker 1: That's right now. I'm just kidding because it's sunny three
Speaker 1: sixty five days, or you know, like Rains wants me
Speaker 1: one day, yere exactly. Yeah, that's pretty good. And a
Speaker 1: second one came in It said, wait a second, do
Speaker 1: we know vol Donna's high school nickname yet? And the
Speaker 1: answer is not yet. I'm worried that your nickname might
Speaker 1: be a little boring. So I'm gonna if it's stretch
Speaker 1: this out. If it's too boring, I'm gonna offer the
Speaker 1: nickname that the transcription service offers for you, really good
Speaker 1: software we used to transcribe the podcast because they're they're
Speaker 1: they're pretty good. They're really really good and just for you,
Speaker 1: my crazy thing this week is is British themed, So
Speaker 1: just throwing that out there for you. Okay, but um
Speaker 1: let's bring in our guest. I'm excited to meet her. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's Victoria Green. She's the founding partner in chief and
Speaker 1: investment officer G Squared Private Wealth. Victoria, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us. Absolutely, I was laughing because I
Speaker 1: definitely need a GPS to get around, and the worst
Speaker 1: for me is when people are like go north or
Speaker 1: go south, Like I'm not not Lewis and Clark. I
Speaker 1: need I need a left or right here, like, please
Speaker 1: don't tell me to look at the sunbur directions. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna need a little help. I feel the same way. Um,
Speaker 1: But so you're joining us on the podcast for the
Speaker 1: first time, I was hoping you could just start out
Speaker 1: telling us a little bit about your firm. Sure. So,
Speaker 1: the Square Private Wealth is a boutique advisory firm. We
Speaker 1: focus more on ultra high out worth and planning and
Speaker 1: portfolio management for them. We tend to be a little
Speaker 1: bit boring with our asset allocations. You know, we're not
Speaker 1: trying to be a hedge fund, uh and what we
Speaker 1: do think positioning and active management is important. But at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, a lot of our clients
Speaker 1: are that don't mess it up clients, So you know,
Speaker 1: we're not looking to necessarily be day traders or anything
Speaker 1: like that. You know, we never got into the meme
Speaker 1: stocks where we're a little bit boring that way. Like
Speaker 1: I feel like traditional asset allocation now, like when you're
Speaker 1: trying to talk about it, it's just not not sexy anymore.
Speaker 1: Everybody wants to throw in something in there that that
Speaker 1: just is like alive in it up. But we do
Speaker 1: think it's important, especially now you know, we're working very
Speaker 1: closely with clients about where do we allocate capital, where
Speaker 1: are we on a bottom or a bear, how long
Speaker 1: this may last? And and so we spent a lot
Speaker 1: of time. We have a pretty small book, we're about
Speaker 1: fifty million, but we've got under a hundred clients. UM,
Speaker 1: So we spent a lot of the time with the
Speaker 1: extensive planning and portfolio management for the individual I like
Speaker 1: that don't don't mess it up strategy, that big, good
Speaker 1: name for investors, different additive, but I don't think that's
Speaker 1: allowed on this show. So yes, a family, a family
Speaker 1: podcast like this, A lot of kids, a lot of
Speaker 1: kids listening, especially since the beam stocks took off. So
Speaker 1: we'll see. But you know, Victoria, I always wonder with
Speaker 1: a firm like Years based in Texas, UM. You know,
Speaker 1: if if you were managing money in California, I'd wonder,
Speaker 1: in say, Silicon Valley, I'd wonder if everyone was, you know,
Speaker 1: very bullish on tech and venture capital. So in Texas
Speaker 1: I have to wonder, you know, does the energy industry
Speaker 1: sort of uh influence your clients? You know, are they
Speaker 1: gung ho about energy or are they looking to diversify energy.
Speaker 1: How does it sort of influence the investment decisions of
Speaker 1: high net worth clients in Texas. Yeah, it probably makes
Speaker 1: them a little more bullish on the energy industry. But
Speaker 1: some of our clients actually we run x energy because
Speaker 1: it depends on what their exposures are. So if you
Speaker 1: have a privately held company or you're on board of
Speaker 1: a public company, you've already got that exposure. So we're
Speaker 1: actually kind of trying to diversify and mitigate the concentration.
Speaker 1: Because everybody in Texas is well aware that the oil
Speaker 1: market is cyclical, right, so you're ride up the good times,
Speaker 1: but you know there's a flip side to it at
Speaker 1: some point, you know. And in this last decade has
Speaker 1: been super hard in the energy industry. We had like
Speaker 1: five crashes within ten years, um and and so they're
Speaker 1: just this waringiness about Okay, yes we are bullish energy
Speaker 1: and the energy transition. While E s G is coming
Speaker 1: and electrics coming, it's going to take a little bit
Speaker 1: longer to adopt than we are seeing that play out
Speaker 1: here in two So probably I would say not to generalize,
Speaker 1: but the attitude of a lot of our clients is
Speaker 1: that the death of energy was over exaggerated. So not
Speaker 1: to say that there aren't concerns about E. S G
Speaker 1: or climate change or things like that, but it tends
Speaker 1: to make them a little bit more willing to have
Speaker 1: a football hold in that that segment. So I do
Speaker 1: think it's a little bit of of what you know
Speaker 1: does influence what you feel comfortable investing in. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: you have the same thing happened in California, and you know,
Speaker 1: if you're in San Francisco area, you probably are very
Speaker 1: very comfortable with your tech exposures and a little bit
Speaker 1: more comfortable with the early stage and the small cap
Speaker 1: tech and the the innovators per se. That's that's very
Speaker 1: interesting to me that the next energy portfolio is. I mean,
Speaker 1: it makes a lot of sense. You know, they know
Speaker 1: the the home base industry, but to get exposure everything
Speaker 1: else that they bring in, you guys, it's pretty interesting. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's well, it look at this last decade, like I said,
Speaker 1: especially like fourteen, and you know you had energy well
Speaker 1: beloween when you had it well below thirty dollars and
Speaker 1: you just couldn't get it really above thirty dollars for years,
Speaker 1: you know, in the Saudias and ope kind of crashing that.
Speaker 1: I distinctly remember that because I was on vacation for
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving when OPEC changed their policy, and it really really
Speaker 1: messed up my Thanksgiving. So I've never forgiven OPEC to that.
Speaker 1: But you know, I think it's something that investors always
Speaker 1: have to be aware of their their you know, totality
Speaker 1: of their portfolio and wealth. So let's say you have
Speaker 1: your salaries tied up in energy or natural gas and
Speaker 1: your dock ops and they're tied up in that, or
Speaker 1: your networks tied up in some sort of energy exposed business,
Speaker 1: whether it's in uh, you know, the services or fracking
Speaker 1: or transportation. You just have to be aware of how
Speaker 1: cyclical up businesses and you kind of want to counterbalance
Speaker 1: it and say, yeah, I want my portfolio, but I
Speaker 1: don't want to be focused on energy. I wanted to
Speaker 1: be diversified because anybody that's lived in Texas for more
Speaker 1: than ten years knows at some point this it's going
Speaker 1: to come back down, you know, how long it stays elevated.
Speaker 1: If this is like A one where we saw that
Speaker 1: spike on the Gulf Woor, if this is an OH
Speaker 1: eight where again we saw a spike, but it came
Speaker 1: back hard. You know, how long does oil stay above
Speaker 1: a hundred? That's you know, the million dollar question down here.
Speaker 1: We do tend to think it's gonna stay elevated a
Speaker 1: little bit longer, just because of the supply demand dynamics.
Speaker 1: And we did see a lot of things shut down
Speaker 1: when we had negative energy prices and people were you know,
Speaker 1: paying you to take and store oil. I mean, wow,
Speaker 1: what what a difference twenty four months makes between like
Speaker 1: literally they were paying you to take it and now
Speaker 1: we're paying you know, five dollars at the pump to
Speaker 1: get it. Well, I know that you had sent us
Speaker 1: over our note uh talking about some of the energy
Speaker 1: names that you do like, so maybe could you walk
Speaker 1: us through some of them. I think it's like Devon Energy,
Speaker 1: e o G, Diamondback Energy. And I wanted to ask
Speaker 1: you because we had Daniel You're going on the podcast
Speaker 1: recently and he was saying we could continue to see
Speaker 1: the the supply crunch, meaning that prices are going to
Speaker 1: continue to stay elevated. Is that also your expectation for
Speaker 1: the energy? Yeah? I like it. So, And this goes
Speaker 1: into the greater theme of like what's happening in the
Speaker 1: world right now, and the de globalization and as you
Speaker 1: may see Russia removed from the market. You're seeing all
Speaker 1: of this rebalancing of supply and demand, and it's hitting
Speaker 1: commodities harder. It's not just energy, it's hitting it's fertilizers,
Speaker 1: it's it's all of the exports that are in some
Speaker 1: precious metals. I think, what are they. It's not lithium,
Speaker 1: it's what's the press palladium. They're a huge, huge supplier
Speaker 1: of palladium. And so you're seeing this rebalance and shift
Speaker 1: and all of these things take a lot of time
Speaker 1: to redistribute and build up supply chains. So our base
Speaker 1: cases oil is staying elevated for the next eighteen months.
Speaker 1: I don't see it coming back down. I don't see
Speaker 1: the demand cruns happening, you know. You know, yeah, China,
Speaker 1: you kind of live and die by China some But
Speaker 1: if you look at the travel and the consumption in
Speaker 1: the United States and Europe and where the trends are
Speaker 1: um most every developed nation has not does not have
Speaker 1: a zero COVID policy anymore. It's it's we're gonna just
Speaker 1: deal with it. I know COVID it's like a dirty
Speaker 1: word these day because we're so tired of talking about it.
Speaker 1: But it's still there. I mean, that's what's affecting China
Speaker 1: and Chinese demand. UM. And Chinese demand may also get
Speaker 1: a little messy because China and India have shown willingness
Speaker 1: to buy cheap Russian crewed. Some of its geographically easy
Speaker 1: for them as well as you know, if they can
Speaker 1: buy it at thirty dollars and they're you know, concerned
Speaker 1: about their economic growth. UM. So we may see some
Speaker 1: demand wane in China, but generally speaking, barrel for the
Speaker 1: next eight teen months, I think is distinctly possible. You
Speaker 1: have not seen this wildcat or mentality come back in right.
Speaker 1: So if you look at the graph of the Baker
Speaker 1: huge rig count, you know, and you saw like coming
Speaker 1: up the where like sixteen hundred rigs. And then obviously
Speaker 1: we had the OPEC change and everybody lost lost lost
Speaker 1: their ass to be quite frank with you. UM. And
Speaker 1: and so you saw this grand the investment in the
Speaker 1: oil and gas industry. And even now we're well well
Speaker 1: below peak, we're still well below pandemic era UM oil
Speaker 1: and gas rigs out there. So you have seen oil
Speaker 1: companies and you'll see this theme. And the oil and
Speaker 1: gas stocks that I like, the Devon, the e O G,
Speaker 1: the Fang, you know, UM and the Pioneer. They are
Speaker 1: US based with a big foot put in the permium.
Speaker 1: They have low brake events, and they're absolutely pushing cash
Speaker 1: to shareholders. They are not putting it back on the ground.
Speaker 1: They are saying, thank you, shareholders for trusting us, here's
Speaker 1: your money back. Really sorry, we didn't make you money
Speaker 1: for a decade, but here you go, let's make some
Speaker 1: money now. But you're not seeing that wild counter mentality
Speaker 1: that happened with other oil price spikes, because that would
Speaker 1: happen and you'd have this massive inflow of let's get
Speaker 1: more rigs out there, and just you know, supplying demand
Speaker 1: would eventually flip it over you. If you look at
Speaker 1: the slope of how the rig count has increased, it's
Speaker 1: a much lower trajectory. Nobody's really pushing a ton of
Speaker 1: money back into CAPEX. So we love the stocks that
Speaker 1: are giving our shareholders just a better return right now.
Speaker 1: Like Devon Energy at a hundred dollars barrel is like
Speaker 1: a sixtent free cash flow yield. They're pushing out of
Speaker 1: their free cash flow and a variable dividend every quarter,
Speaker 1: Like you're talking a lot of money to sit and wait.
Speaker 1: Plus you might get price appreciations still because they keep
Speaker 1: making more money. And if you look at where earnings
Speaker 1: revisions are happening, about the only place that we're thinking
Speaker 1: earnings are going to go up as energy, And so
Speaker 1: the pe s there are actually still even with this
Speaker 1: massive price moving up in a lot of these stocks,
Speaker 1: the ps are actually still very nominal and very value oriented.
Speaker 1: I actually I was writing about this earlier this week
Speaker 1: where there's this e t F. It's like a cash
Speaker 1: cows The ticker is really funny CEO w Z, but
Speaker 1: but it's been seeing tons of inflows. And when I
Speaker 1: was looking at the names within it, their energy names,
Speaker 1: and it's companies with high free cash flow yields. So
Speaker 1: does that make sense to you to see something like that,
Speaker 1: we want cash, we want money. Right now is playing
Speaker 1: defense and survival, Like not to sound super dour about
Speaker 1: the world, but by is let's survive as this year
Speaker 1: with as minimal damage as we can, Like we're trying
Speaker 1: to avoid falling on hand grenades and avoid it like
Speaker 1: a complete blow up and I do think the energy sector.
Speaker 1: I'm aware of commodity price spikes. We can go back
Speaker 1: and look through all the charts. We actually did this
Speaker 1: whole big research thing of what's killed off oil markets
Speaker 1: in the past. So what killed off the nineties oil market,
Speaker 1: the eighties oil market, oh a, and then the whole
Speaker 1: decade which was a complete lost decade in oil and gas,
Speaker 1: and then obviously implosion. Um. But when you look at
Speaker 1: these companies now you are getting massive cash flows back,
Speaker 1: and I feel like the cash flows are sustainable. So
Speaker 1: Devin Energy, I love. They're my top pick in the space,
Speaker 1: so I do talk about them frequently. But they've got
Speaker 1: only the oil hedged, so they're actually seeing a lot
Speaker 1: more of a fern um. You know, that was one
Speaker 1: problem a little bit with the e m p s
Speaker 1: last year. We still had pretty high hedges coming out
Speaker 1: of two thousand uh and then you see those fixed
Speaker 1: plus variable dividend and now other people have modeled after
Speaker 1: it is not as unique anymore. But they pushed I
Speaker 1: think one a dollar twenty seven as a quarterly dividend.
Speaker 1: It was a great yield. And if you look at
Speaker 1: how that's grown and how they expect their free cash
Speaker 1: flow to grow. They're they're they're doing everything they can
Speaker 1: to make their shareholders reap the rewards that they're getting
Speaker 1: UM and their share buybacks. I think they authorized another
Speaker 1: two billion and they've they've literally brought back three of
Speaker 1: their market cap. So if Devin thinks they're stocks worth owning,
Speaker 1: you know, share by backs are one of the good
Speaker 1: uses of cash, and it's a way to enhance your
Speaker 1: shareholder value. Victoria wondering what you think is causing that
Speaker 1: sort of you know, as you describe it, that wildcat
Speaker 1: or mentality from returning UM. Is it's simply just a
Speaker 1: legacy of the busts that that you've talked about in
Speaker 1: the last few decades, or you know, people love to
Speaker 1: politicize oil production and claim it's it's a result of
Speaker 1: you know, Biden and and energy policy. But is it
Speaker 1: you know, is there anything that policy could do right
Speaker 1: now to increase production or is it just you know,
Speaker 1: like you said, Uh, those busts of the last few
Speaker 1: decades have really left their scar and no one wants
Speaker 1: to rush in and oversupply the market right now. I
Speaker 1: think it's more they don't want to oversupply the markets
Speaker 1: I mean, like like if you again, if you look
Speaker 1: at the rig count and how we've messed up some
Speaker 1: of these other other um bull markets and oil, it's
Speaker 1: been an oversupply eventually happens, and that's typical and most
Speaker 1: commodity markets, right, commodity prices spike, you bring more production online.
Speaker 1: Now you're supplying demand rebalances. We never actually get balanced.
Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever actually seen it come out
Speaker 1: of your market that we would consider balanced. Were either
Speaker 1: under supplied or oversupplied. And quite frankly, the last two years,
Speaker 1: we've had this whiplash between the two um and that's
Speaker 1: something we'll talk about frequently down here. The Biden administration
Speaker 1: and the US energy industry do not have a good relationship.
Speaker 1: I think that's putting it mildly. I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of angst about government regulations. I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of you know, there's a lot of rhetoric about
Speaker 1: you know, the then the Biden administration is definitely pushing
Speaker 1: greener and and climate change issues in the oil and
Speaker 1: gas industry. It definitely felt a little unloved. But I'm
Speaker 1: not sure there's anything that Biden administration could do. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they could open up some more leases, but you actually
Speaker 1: have a lot of people that have a lot of
Speaker 1: leasing and permitting. And if you look at the timeline
Speaker 1: between when when a company can buy a lease, so
Speaker 1: when they actually like get that gasoline in your car,
Speaker 1: it's years and years. I mean, there's permitting, then you
Speaker 1: actually have to drill it, then you actually have to
Speaker 1: like pump the oil out of it. Then you gotta
Speaker 1: transport it, then you gotta refine it, and then you
Speaker 1: gotta transport to gas stations, and all of those things
Speaker 1: take a lot of permitting. So could it be eased
Speaker 1: if if regulations were eased, you know, that's that's the
Speaker 1: rallying cry of less regulation and less government coming from Texas.
Speaker 1: But at the same point, it's not going to immediately
Speaker 1: make an impact on the pump. You know, look at
Speaker 1: the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That did nothing.
Speaker 1: You know, at the end of the day, that did
Speaker 1: nothing to relieve it because some of it you just
Speaker 1: don't have enough refinery capacity right now. You have some
Speaker 1: refiners golf most refineries are finding it at So could
Speaker 1: the industry and the government have a better relationship, Yes,
Speaker 1: could that foster a little bit more drilling. Yes, Is
Speaker 1: it going to bring back a lot of supply quickly, No,
Speaker 1: just because of the timeline it would take between like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go get that lease and get it all
Speaker 1: permitted and get it drilled. It's not like it's showing
Speaker 1: up at you know, the gas station tomorrow. And just
Speaker 1: to bring us back to the broader market. Obviously, every
Speaker 1: conversation I've had this week has revolved around whether or
Speaker 1: not we've had a bottom, whether or not we've hit
Speaker 1: it or probed it or tried to form it or
Speaker 1: you know, I've heard some people saying that we are.
Speaker 1: It's going to be a rounded bottom. It's going to
Speaker 1: take some time to to to form. So I'm just
Speaker 1: wondering what you think and what you're expecting from the market.
Speaker 1: I don't think we found a bottom yet. I know
Speaker 1: Friday was a really great turnaround. We had that important
Speaker 1: thirty fifteen support level held and that was huge and
Speaker 1: that kind of caused that interday reversal. You know, yesterday
Speaker 1: you saw a rally off. I know we're on the
Speaker 1: tech side. We are approaching that very long term trend
Speaker 1: line that we might break through. Um, I just think
Speaker 1: we're we're not done yet. You know, I think there
Speaker 1: is a little bit more of the first leg because
Speaker 1: I always asked, you know, what is our catalyst? How
Speaker 1: are we going to get growth? You really haven't seen
Speaker 1: a lot of earning revisions, and so we talk about, well,
Speaker 1: valuations have come down. Yeah, the the P part of
Speaker 1: the P and E have come down. What happens when
Speaker 1: the E starts to go back down to you know,
Speaker 1: there's two parts to that. And if we don't have
Speaker 1: earnings expansion or at least earning staying status quo, you're
Speaker 1: gonna see valuations maybe aren't quite as low as they're
Speaker 1: looking now. Um. You know that being said, it has held.
Speaker 1: I just don't think we're done yet. I think this
Speaker 1: is more of a relief rally. Um. If you look
Speaker 1: for the signs of capitulation, down age, the VIC spiking, Um,
Speaker 1: you know, we're just not there yet. Yeah. Cash balances
Speaker 1: have have definitely increased, and yes we've seen some equity selling,
Speaker 1: but not a well and true panic. Like not to
Speaker 1: sound like a snob, but I need like a solid panic.
Speaker 1: You know, we just haven't seen that that that solid
Speaker 1: absolute capitulation. Everything selling off, you know, we we we
Speaker 1: aren't there yet. And then my concern also where is
Speaker 1: your growth where you know margins are definitely being squeezed,
Speaker 1: and and we we're gonna have to wait until the
Speaker 1: FED can send the economy into a recession to stop
Speaker 1: some of this. And my oppression is you think that's
Speaker 1: kind of inevitable that you know, the Fed's not going
Speaker 1: to be able to bring inflation from eight percent plus
Speaker 1: back to their target without they triggering I I not
Speaker 1: that I don't. Yeah, I mean I would. I would
Speaker 1: say I would love and I would challenge somebody to say,
Speaker 1: has the FED ever navigated a difficult situation? Well, not
Speaker 1: to rip on them, it's a thankless job because they're
Speaker 1: either too early, too late, too harsh, too too easy money.
Speaker 1: You know, they never get it just right. But you
Speaker 1: look at any other situation we've had high inflation or
Speaker 1: is any type of bubble irrational exuberance, you know green span,
Speaker 1: you know, you go through your history here and and
Speaker 1: I'm just like, prove it to me, show me a
Speaker 1: soft landing, show me that you actually can can navigate
Speaker 1: this and not just like nose dive. And I don't
Speaker 1: think there's any way. Well, I I guess the only
Speaker 1: way people think it could happen is if the supply
Speaker 1: chain issues sort themselves out, which seems unlikely with China
Speaker 1: stick into this COVID zero policy. I mean, does it
Speaker 1: Does it all kind of go back to China as
Speaker 1: much as the FED? Yeah, I would say the FED.
Speaker 1: You know, if we were gonna talk about the heavyweights
Speaker 1: here and what's going to impact it, one is fed
Speaker 1: to is China and global demand UM. And China is
Speaker 1: definitely a wild card. It's always a little questionable what
Speaker 1: their growth numbers are. I feel like you've got to
Speaker 1: take that a bit with the grain assault. Whatever China
Speaker 1: says they're doing, kind of kind of have to divide
Speaker 1: it by a factor of fives to see what it's
Speaker 1: really like. You know, what's lurking in China's market? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know the housing over there is that kind of
Speaker 1: rolling over How much? How many? How much problems does
Speaker 1: the Chinese market have, not just on demand but the
Speaker 1: zero COVID policy? UM? And then you know you talk
Speaker 1: about moving supply chains and resiliency and supply chains. Again,
Speaker 1: these are not easy things to fix. You can't just
Speaker 1: build a chip factory and call it. You know, Tuscaloosa
Speaker 1: in a day, you're talking about massive resources. And if
Speaker 1: you look at it, like aw, semi conductors start in
Speaker 1: Taiwan almost they're they're just the mecca and they have
Speaker 1: the technology and the expertise, and it is extremely the
Speaker 1: number of circus they're putting on semi conductors, which is
Speaker 1: like the problem child for supply chain, right, Like, if
Speaker 1: you're gonna talk about supply chain, semiconductors was like the
Speaker 1: number one thing that really messed up the entire world.
Speaker 1: I don't think you can move a lot of that
Speaker 1: stuff easily out of Taiwan because it's they're putting so
Speaker 1: much on those tiny little chips. It's such a specialized
Speaker 1: build with specialized technology. You can't just like pop it
Speaker 1: up like you can build a McDonald's. Can I ask
Speaker 1: you about peak inflation because I was reading some notes
Speaker 1: this week that that actually we're talking about China where
Speaker 1: we had everybody saying in the last couple of weeks
Speaker 1: that maybe we have hit peak inflation, and yet we
Speaker 1: now have China coming out of those lockdowns and that's
Speaker 1: gonna sort of have this put for the pressure on prices.
Speaker 1: So what do you see in terms of inflation peak maybe,
Speaker 1: but declining No, So I think there are different magnitudes here.
Speaker 1: So are we going to continue to see eight and
Speaker 1: a half year over year increases? Probably not right. So
Speaker 1: have we hit kind of our peak growth and inflation?
Speaker 1: Are we going to see inflation moderate or moderate quickly
Speaker 1: down to a more normalized level. No. I think we
Speaker 1: leave this year at a six handle. Like I think
Speaker 1: there's just too much pressure. The only caveat to that
Speaker 1: would be at the labor market and the housing market crashed.
Speaker 1: You can see those two things obviously rapid they bring
Speaker 1: down inflation. But look at you know, if you start
Speaker 1: to take apart inflation, we're pending spending a lot on services.
Speaker 1: Airlines are super happy, right They're charging US eleven twelve
Speaker 1: percent more, and they can keep hiking tickets and we
Speaker 1: keep buying them because we're so excited to travel again.
Speaker 1: You know, the same thing for for most services right now,
Speaker 1: you're seeing more and more hiking on the upside. And
Speaker 1: then look at the supply constrained areas like food. Food
Speaker 1: is actually something that I think is a huge risk.
Speaker 1: You know, we're a little more secure here in the
Speaker 1: United States, but if you look at what happened in
Speaker 1: Ukraine and all of the areas that Ukraine supplied wheat
Speaker 1: and some of the basic stables for uh. You again,
Speaker 1: you're seeing a supply taking off the market. That's gonna
Speaker 1: put more pressure on everybody else. And then we have
Speaker 1: some of our own crop problems. You know, farmers are
Speaker 1: struggling some with weather, higher fertilizing prices, higher diesel prices, um,
Speaker 1: and so you know, no, we're not having like a
Speaker 1: major flu outbreak or swine flu where we're having to
Speaker 1: kill off herds. But at the same point, I think
Speaker 1: you have a lot of sure on food. You have
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on the fuels. I don't see
Speaker 1: the fuel inflation crash or so you start kind of
Speaker 1: parsing apart cp I on some of the inflation and saying,
Speaker 1: what do I think has wiggle room. I do think
Speaker 1: maybe rent and and average probe prices could come down.
Speaker 1: I mean the mortgage you know, some of the housing
Speaker 1: data we're getting is not super amazing. So I think
Speaker 1: you can start to see possibly outside roll over, But
Speaker 1: a lot of the other things energy, food, UM, and
Speaker 1: then services, I don't see that coming back. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think that food supply story is about to become a
Speaker 1: very dramatic story over the next few months. As long
Speaker 1: as this were continues, it's gonna it's alarming. Um h.
Speaker 1: Victoria value over growth. Um It's it's sort of the
Speaker 1: Crips versus the blood story and markets all the time.
Speaker 1: I would ask a very simple question. It might seem oversimplified,
Speaker 1: but the more I read about value and growth, the
Speaker 1: less I think it is. But how do you define value?
Speaker 1: You what's your definition of a value stock? Uh? I
Speaker 1: mean one goes to peo or the price you're paying
Speaker 1: for your dollar of earnings, right, And so when you
Speaker 1: look at a value stock, you want to say, hey,
Speaker 1: we don't have this great growth trajectory. We expect some growth,
Speaker 1: but I'm paying a moderate amount of premium for this
Speaker 1: dollar of earnings that you're gonna give me. So I
Speaker 1: feel like it's reasonably valued for for what you're gonna
Speaker 1: give me and the fact that you're not gonna have
Speaker 1: exponential growth. So I think again, it's trading out a
Speaker 1: reasonable price of reasonable valuation based upon the cash flows,
Speaker 1: dividends and and the the earnings that you're expected to have. Now,
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of kind of you know,
Speaker 1: growth and drag. Value kind of dressed up a little
Speaker 1: bit differently because the question is the sustainability of earning.
Speaker 1: So when you look at a value stock, is that
Speaker 1: stock truly a value stock where I feel like I'm
Speaker 1: not over paying for your cash flow in the future
Speaker 1: if their earnings are at risk. And I think a
Speaker 1: little bit, you know, when we can talk about the
Speaker 1: duration of the stock and and you know what what's
Speaker 1: happening in the ewth market. But I think that's one
Speaker 1: thing investors need to be aware of. It's a trajectory
Speaker 1: and projection of earnings and cash flows for those companies,
Speaker 1: um and and and how stable and how resilient are
Speaker 1: those And that's why I think you saw that retail
Speaker 1: wreck of a week last week, and and because you
Speaker 1: saw a lot of retailers saying, look, we're hitting inflationary prices, uh,
Speaker 1: and we're not going to be able to actually generate
Speaker 1: as much money. And a lot of those retailers are
Speaker 1: kind of a little more retailer staples. You know your
Speaker 1: your Walmart's right, let's let's pick on Walmart. You know,
Speaker 1: they're like the end all be all of consumer staples.
Speaker 1: If you think about consumer staples. You think about Walmart
Speaker 1: and the fact that they warned about where their growth
Speaker 1: and their margins are going to come from. Even though
Speaker 1: it's not a hugely over valued stock, if you look
Speaker 1: at it on matrix of price the book or price
Speaker 1: the e but a price the earnings, it still took
Speaker 1: a hit because there's just like, if you're not going
Speaker 1: to generate that much cash, maybe I don't even want
Speaker 1: to pay you know, fifteen times because it's just not
Speaker 1: worth it if you're not going to generate enough or
Speaker 1: so I think quality is key, but sustainability and where
Speaker 1: those cash flows come from. You know, how exposed are
Speaker 1: you to a consumer slowdown? How azilian are you to
Speaker 1: the consumer pocketbook taking it? Because I mean the consumer
Speaker 1: is being asked to absorb so much right when you
Speaker 1: think about it. Rants are high, gas is high, food
Speaker 1: is high. Those three things or something no human being
Speaker 1: in the United States can really avoid, right, Yeah, it
Speaker 1: Walmarts a good example I was taking target to. I
Speaker 1: mean it's you know, you're looking at a stock with
Speaker 1: an eleven or twelve p right now, and everyone's saying
Speaker 1: value value, value, Well, it's it's trickier than it sounds.
Speaker 1: I guess it is, and technically they're discretionary. I don't
Speaker 1: know exactly how we drew that line between Walmart being
Speaker 1: Staples staples and Target being discretionary, because I mean, I
Speaker 1: guess the tar J maybe as discretionary, but Target Staples,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how we want to delineate that. But yeah,
Speaker 1: they're they're the example of you know, how much risk
Speaker 1: is their their margins and their earning is going to
Speaker 1: be and you are seeing changing in consumer buying habits
Speaker 1: um best buy, you know, but you also have for
Speaker 1: mixed signals right now of what this buy. I mean Nordstrom.
Speaker 1: Somehow Target had a horrible earnings, but Nordstrom it was
Speaker 1: just fine and and and excited and upbeat like that.
Speaker 1: That to me was a little bit of like I
Speaker 1: needed a drink after reading that, because if that one's
Speaker 1: a little crazy to me, Yeah, it's it's kind of
Speaker 1: the opposite of what you would expect in a recessionary environment,
Speaker 1: or at least concerns of a recessionary environment. Victoria, So
Speaker 1: can you talk about value versus growth because I've been
Speaker 1: seeing some notes recently. Let's say the sell off and
Speaker 1: growth has just it's gone on too long. It's it's overdone,
Speaker 1: and maybe it's time to start, you know, dipping your
Speaker 1: toe in the growth splace? What do you make of that?
Speaker 1: So your kids in a falling knife or you know,
Speaker 1: the other way I look at it, you're kind of
Speaker 1: looking for diamonds, and a pilot turns what you are.
Speaker 1: You're you're looking for things, and we have one like,
Speaker 1: no video is one we really like? You know, I
Speaker 1: may have a little we'll see what they look like
Speaker 1: after earnings. But you look and you have NA Video
Speaker 1: or Apple and some of the big ones, you know,
Speaker 1: the Luster, the fang stocks or the Magma stocks or
Speaker 1: whatever we're referring to them. Now. I'm not cool enough
Speaker 1: to know what the acronym is. Always I don't care
Speaker 1: if their name is Meta, is always going to be fang.
Speaker 1: I'm not calling it. Yeah, a large cap tech Uh
Speaker 1: you know, they're they're the poster child for the problems.
Speaker 1: I think it's just so much. So let's let's start
Speaker 1: parsing apart the tech market, right. Social media is one,
Speaker 1: I think, uh, and Snap scared everybody yesterday of where
Speaker 1: where the advertising dollars going to go? And social media
Speaker 1: I think is so fickle because as soon as you
Speaker 1: have and even a Netflix goes into that one, your
Speaker 1: subscription based or your eyeball based business, and especially ones
Speaker 1: that you're trying to you know, make the teenagers and
Speaker 1: the use of the world engaged so you get the
Speaker 1: biggest bang on your buck for advertising, you know. I
Speaker 1: think it's it's a fickle world. In ten years, As
Speaker 1: Facebook still relevant, I'm not sure as a social media platform.
Speaker 1: So if you try to stress test some of the
Speaker 1: earnings for Facebook, a Twitter, a snap and say, in
Speaker 1: ten years, is this platform still relevant, It's hard to know.
Speaker 1: I mean I was kind of thought we'd have flying
Speaker 1: cars by now, but you know, not yet. I mean
Speaker 1: not unless you have to overpass a little too fast yours. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean some of those things. Your trajectory on where
Speaker 1: the tech market goes, I think is what makes growth
Speaker 1: so hard. And that's why we like in the video
Speaker 1: because they're kind of continuing to modify. It's not just gaming.
Speaker 1: You also are getting into your data centers, you're getting
Speaker 1: the self driving cars. You're seeing the company continue to progress,
Speaker 1: and Facebook is trying to do that, but quite frankly,
Speaker 1: everybody is kind of you know, the metaverse is something
Speaker 1: that we're all struggling with. Even though multiple technologies now
Speaker 1: are talking about the metaverse type of situation. They want
Speaker 1: this all encompassing universe. Um, it's it's something I think
Speaker 1: we're having trouble kind of agreeing to move to this
Speaker 1: encompassing virtual reality world. Um. But then again, I'm an
Speaker 1: old millennial, so I barely know what's hip anymore. So
Speaker 1: I maybe shouldn't be a parting on on what happens.
Speaker 1: But I think that's the hardest problem with the tech industry.
Speaker 1: So as Apple still relevant in ten years, I think absolutely,
Speaker 1: because Apple has definitely continued to modify, They're getting more
Speaker 1: into health. The first person that gets their smart watch
Speaker 1: to do blood pressure or blood sugar and do it
Speaker 1: well is going to absolutely have a massive growth engine
Speaker 1: because it certainly health is pushing more and more virtual
Speaker 1: and mobile and and you know, and ways that people
Speaker 1: can manage their health has changed. And I know Apple,
Speaker 1: you know they can do the e k G and
Speaker 1: they can do heart rate monitoring. But as soon as
Speaker 1: you have those two things, that's gonna rapidly change how
Speaker 1: millions of people receive services. So I look at Apple
Speaker 1: and I say, yeah, they're continuing to evolve. And I'm
Speaker 1: sure at some point I'm gonna pay two thousand dollars
Speaker 1: for a stupid phone. But I'm all in on at Like,
Speaker 1: I've got my AirPod, my phone, my iPod, my watch.
Speaker 1: I mean, I couldn't leave Apple, you know, I could
Speaker 1: never divorce Apple would be so messy. I wouldn't even
Speaker 1: know what to do. They make so many decisions for me.
Speaker 1: They make it easy. They're like, cool, we have this
Speaker 1: set up here. Do you like it. I'm like, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's great, thank you for pouching that for me. And
Speaker 1: that's very helpful. Mike, I was I was invited to
Speaker 1: a conference in the metaverse this week, A conference in
Speaker 1: the metaverse. A conference in the metaverse. I will say,
Speaker 1: I think Victoria the metaverse may be the only place
Speaker 1: you'll get those flying cars anytime, anytime soon. And I'm
Speaker 1: a little confused. I mean, so if you go to
Speaker 1: a conference in the metaverse, you have to have like
Speaker 1: the VR goggles like in your little VR avatar, or
Speaker 1: do you just like show up in a zoom room
Speaker 1: like this and it's a horrible like non conference conference.
Speaker 1: I think it's that is a planthetic conference and a
Speaker 1: metaverse I want like VR and avatars like come on.
Speaker 1: That means that means we're cut in the metaverse right now,
Speaker 1: and this only count. The only innovation I would like
Speaker 1: from Apple is a watch band that actually stays on
Speaker 1: your wrist. I love to watch, but the band keeps
Speaker 1: falling off for some reason. Anyway, just a mommoo, Tim
Speaker 1: Cook if you I think. I think the thing that
Speaker 1: Apple is very good at is their their base successories
Speaker 1: kind of sucks. So they're like, please upgrade to your
Speaker 1: four watch band. So I think it cheap and poor,
Speaker 1: and so that's it. They know I'll lose the watch
Speaker 1: eventually and have to have to buy a do on
Speaker 1: and stuff. But but Victoria, you know, uh, the big
Speaker 1: question this year is, obviously, how do you play defense
Speaker 1: in this stock market? I gotta say that when I
Speaker 1: look at the bond yields where they're at now, Yes,
Speaker 1: I know they're still negative on a on a real
Speaker 1: basis and inflation adjusted, but if you have some sort
Speaker 1: of faith that inflation is going to come back to two,
Speaker 1: you know, are treasuries attractive? Yet? Are they? Are they
Speaker 1: looking cheap to you at all? Yeah? I mean well,
Speaker 1: I mean I like them or at three twenty that
Speaker 1: I do at to seventy five on a tenure, and
Speaker 1: I think that's one of the thing driving them down.
Speaker 1: And I also think this is what is not voting
Speaker 1: well for the markets. You know, the first part of
Speaker 1: the year was such an anomaly where you had treasuries
Speaker 1: falling at the same time you had the market selling off,
Speaker 1: which typically that correlation is not something that's very high. Um.
Speaker 1: And so now you've seen the correlation break and normalize,
Speaker 1: which is market is kind of in the toilet, and
Speaker 1: treasury market is rallying, and that does mean, you know,
Speaker 1: the tenure rallying. So it's a little less that's more
Speaker 1: about long term inflationary you know, if you look more
Speaker 1: at the two year and what's happening with that, that's
Speaker 1: more our short term expectations. UM. But I do think
Speaker 1: like to seventy five, I mean, what is it negative
Speaker 1: on a real basis that at eight and a half
Speaker 1: percent inflation? I mean the only thing not negative on
Speaker 1: a real basis is stocks and and and even then
Speaker 1: and not divided yields. So I do think parking some
Speaker 1: and playing defense there is good. You know, I'd watched
Speaker 1: your high yield bonds. I think a lot of people
Speaker 1: don't know what they own in a bond fund, and
Speaker 1: and a lot of them until recently, the best performing
Speaker 1: bond funds were the longer duration, higher credit right. And
Speaker 1: so sometimes if you're trying, you're looking at your four
Speaker 1: own K plan, you're looking at your menu, and you're
Speaker 1: seeing these total returns, or you're um, you know, anything
Speaker 1: that's opportunistic, you know, and that's my keyword. If there's
Speaker 1: opportunistic in a bond fund, that means there's probably credit risk.
Speaker 1: And so I think people learned the hard way a
Speaker 1: little bit more about credit risk. But I think you
Speaker 1: do play some defense. I mean two seventy five, you know,
Speaker 1: if you can get you're seeing the short term rates
Speaker 1: come up. Um, then again you might be losing on
Speaker 1: a real basis, but you can at least make something.
Speaker 1: And and we're coming off such a period of low rates.
Speaker 1: I'm like, I could buy a six months bond at
Speaker 1: one and a half, Like, oh my goodness, Like that's
Speaker 1: just amazing, Like I'm so excited for other nicest points. So,
Speaker 1: I mean, some of it's just a more normalization of
Speaker 1: where we might see yields, but um, you know, I
Speaker 1: do think it's it's worth it to have a little
Speaker 1: bit in that. You know. The one that's been surprising,
Speaker 1: it's gold. Gold really hasn't been you know. If you
Speaker 1: talk about how do you play defense in your portfolio,
Speaker 1: is it cash, treasuries, other bonds, alter natives. You know,
Speaker 1: some of the alternatives have done very well, you know,
Speaker 1: but you also have seen gold which is up, but
Speaker 1: it's not in this high inflationary period. You really have
Speaker 1: seen it struggle to break nine day above it um
Speaker 1: and it keeps trying and it keeps really not breaking out.
Speaker 1: So I think that's been eye opening talk about this
Speaker 1: year of both bond and or gold and bitcoin. The
Speaker 1: tried and true inflationary, supposedly inflationary offsets haven't really done
Speaker 1: what they're supposed to do. And I think Bitcoin has
Speaker 1: had a lot of a gut check this year in
Speaker 1: a period of massive monetary spending and printing money and
Speaker 1: high inflation. That was like the two core tenants of
Speaker 1: why bitcoin should work to offset those two things, and
Speaker 1: it's down what this year. Well, those core tenants are
Speaker 1: kind of a moving target though a little bit so,
Speaker 1: so I take it you're not a crypto ball. No.
Speaker 1: I mean, I do believe in blockchain, and I like
Speaker 1: the idea um and you know, every now and then
Speaker 1: in his thirty or a thousand dollars in my coin
Speaker 1: based account. But I mean I look at this and
Speaker 1: say it's I think it's gonna really depend what coin
Speaker 1: and how does it get used? Right, So we talk
Speaker 1: about cryptocurrencies, and it's not just Bitcoin or ethereum. You
Speaker 1: have all these different coins, but how are they actually
Speaker 1: going to be used? You know, I know there's the
Speaker 1: novelty of technically you could buy like a Tesla with it,
Speaker 1: but that's such a inefficient way because the price fluctuate
Speaker 1: so much as well as there's a lot of you know,
Speaker 1: the mark to market. How do you know exactly so
Speaker 1: what the price of bitcoin is? And and you know,
Speaker 1: anytime there's a free app, which I'm aware of, that
Speaker 1: that you are you you are the products. So that
Speaker 1: means somehow when you're transacting it's not just a transaction fee.
Speaker 1: But it's very hard to know what the markups. Maybe
Speaker 1: our true pricing transparency on on crypto is a little
Speaker 1: bit harder, it's still it's it's it's very much a
Speaker 1: frontier market. Regulation has not really been figured out yet.
Speaker 1: I mean the I r S figured it out real quick.
Speaker 1: I mean they're tax it too, you know. So the
Speaker 1: I R S was the first one to catch on that,
Speaker 1: hey we we got to do something here. But I
Speaker 1: think the existential question of is it a currency, is
Speaker 1: it an investment? Is it of an alternative investment? You know?
Speaker 1: And then how does it get used and adopted? I
Speaker 1: think those are are yet to be seen. Yeah, alright, Victoria. Well,
Speaker 1: if if you try to pay for your flying uber
Speaker 1: in the metaverse and they only take crypto, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: they only take My craziest thing it does have to
Speaker 1: do with crypto. Imagine that, Imagine that you found something
Speaker 1: crazy in the crypto. Yes, let's hear, what's your crazy
Speaker 1: thing for the week. Well, you'll remember that a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago I was in Miami and the big
Speaker 1: bitcoin conference there. There were twenty five thousand people. There
Speaker 1: was like lots of parties and techno music, and the
Speaker 1: mayor of Miami unveiled bitcoin bull statue. And my craziest
Speaker 1: thing is about Miami Coin, which is the city's cryptocurrency.
Speaker 1: Its price has fallen Wow, the stable coins are a
Speaker 1: little less stable. I mean that's been that's been a
Speaker 1: boy enlightening for people. Yeah. I like how Vildonna's in
Speaker 1: London one week, Miami the next week, an international woman
Speaker 1: of mystery. Here. They don't let me out of the
Speaker 1: zip code. Here. I can barely go to lunch without
Speaker 1: someone complaining watching the flight attendant. So I definitely think
Speaker 1: you're a c I a spy. Now like watching it too?
Speaker 1: What a fun show, right, it's a good show. It's good.
Speaker 1: I did think season one was a little bit better
Speaker 1: than two, but two is still very, very entertaining. So definitely,
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna assume you work for the CIA. Now
Speaker 1: I gotta watch that one. It's like a murder mystery
Speaker 1: and a TV show. Oh that's right up Phil Donna's alley. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I love that stuff. Yeah, I never heard of it.
Speaker 1: You know, Victoria, you say you're an older millennial when
Speaker 1: you're out of touch Wall, I'm practically a boomer. I
Speaker 1: have no idea what's going on any anywhere. It's true.
Speaker 1: But that's why I bill Donna to keep me, keep
Speaker 1: me up to date on the hip. And yeah, I
Speaker 1: do like a cheap seat sometimes to talk to like
Speaker 1: our next gen clients when I'm talking to their kids,
Speaker 1: because I'm like, I don't want to be like the
Speaker 1: parody where it's like, oh, yeah, that's whack, like you
Speaker 1: know or whatever the hip terms are. So I maybe
Speaker 1: like a translation. I think Google should should come out
Speaker 1: with that, right, like how to speak next Gen, so
Speaker 1: you know, and I don't. I still don't know if
Speaker 1: it's a gift or a jeff or a meme or mam. Like,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm fifty of what I'm going to
Speaker 1: say and how it gets pronounced. So definitely not cool
Speaker 1: in that regards. I try to rely on my teenage daughters,
Speaker 1: but they're they're too far, too avant card, they're too
Speaker 1: ahead of the curve that that you know, I'm talking
Speaker 1: done at TikTok. Uh. Yeah, I've been in a lot
Speaker 1: of TikTok's I'm not even aware of. I think they
Speaker 1: try to catch me doing something stupid and that's my worst.
Speaker 1: That is my worst. Yeah. Yeah, that I'm going to
Speaker 1: be the background of somebody's TikTok and I'm gonna like
Speaker 1: become this internet sensation for like stuffing my face as
Speaker 1: people are dancing or something like that. I'm pretty sure
Speaker 1: that's where I'm at already. But but Victoria, how about you,
Speaker 1: what's the craziest thing you saw in the past week. Um,
Speaker 1: has it only been a week. We'll give you a month.
Speaker 1: We'll give you a month of crazy things. A month
Speaker 1: of crazy thing. It's a good month to be crazy.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna have to just go with some
Speaker 1: of the weird inter day reversals we've had. Like, I
Speaker 1: know that's not tooper crazy, but again, we've seen those
Speaker 1: like thousand points moves in a day, and sometimes you
Speaker 1: really don't know, like the Invisible hand is has been
Speaker 1: at work this this month, so you've seen some of
Speaker 1: those weird reversals, and um, you know that to me
Speaker 1: is a little surprising. And then obviously, I think the
Speaker 1: weird thing for me is cash that last thirty minutes
Speaker 1: of trading. I'm like holding my breath because sometimes it's like, oh,
Speaker 1: we'll get this reversal, and sometimes it's like, mmmm, now
Speaker 1: watch me drop. And I don't really like that. But
Speaker 1: I think the the speed of some of these moves,
Speaker 1: it's just it's fascinating to watch it really is. I mean,
Speaker 1: I guess it's for liquidity to some degree. But I
Speaker 1: read a few charts the other day and Bitcoin has
Speaker 1: actually been less bottle than the SMP on like a
Speaker 1: five day rolling five day basis. So this week's sign
Speaker 1: of the apocalypse. I mean, I don't know what else
Speaker 1: I might be like, it's your apocalypse bingo card out,
Speaker 1: but Bitcoin being more stable than the is I mean,
Speaker 1: you get be a winner if you called that one. Yeah,
Speaker 1: exactly that believe it or not. That's not the craziest
Speaker 1: thing I saw in the last week. As I promised,
Speaker 1: mine is uh British themed in honor vill Donna's very
Speaker 1: large expense account for the week, I'm gonna have to
Speaker 1: not to take a look at your expense account after
Speaker 1: this week, Bildonna. But if you would like to live
Speaker 1: like a royal is how the Bloomberg story starts out.
Speaker 1: How much would you pay for Buckingham Palace? Some firm
Speaker 1: called McCarty stone actually did a an appraisal of Buckingham Palace. Um.
Speaker 1: I don't know why, I think just to get their
Speaker 1: name in the news. They are a developer of retirement
Speaker 1: home communities, so perhaps this being the pashious retirement home
Speaker 1: in all of England. They appraised Buckingham Palace, so Wildonna.
Speaker 1: We'll tell you what time it is. Victoria's time to
Speaker 1: play prices right here on what goes up? What do
Speaker 1: you think the appraised worth of Buckingham Palace is in
Speaker 1: British pounds sterling by the way, not US dollars obviously,
Speaker 1: I mean much difference now, I mean we're almost going
Speaker 1: to be a bit more. That's a fair point. That's
Speaker 1: a fair point. Okay, I'll accept either. Then do it.
Speaker 1: What's your what's your appraisal for Buckingham Palace? Well, I
Speaker 1: think British people would definitely say priceless, right, that's true.
Speaker 1: That's true, and it is and it's not really it's
Speaker 1: obviously not really for sale. Brexit hasn't been that bead
Speaker 1: on the on the Royals. They're not actually selling it.
Speaker 1: Let me give you a little, a little uh details
Speaker 1: on the listing here, seven hundred and seventy five room.
Speaker 1: Whoa palace, seven hundred and seventy five rooms with five
Speaker 1: hundred fifty million pounds five fifty million pounds. Victoria, what's
Speaker 1: your guests at the assessed value of Buckingham Palace? I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with the prices right rules on, we're gonna
Speaker 1: go four or five forty nine million British pounds because right,
Speaker 1: we're playing prices right rules, so close, that's what we're under. Yes,
Speaker 1: so right, so you're going a dollar under under okay,
Speaker 1: one point three billion pounds. That's a hot real estate
Speaker 1: market in London, I guess, is uh answer. Yeah. I've
Speaker 1: also heard castles aren't that super fun to stay in.
Speaker 1: They're kind of drafty and cold. Yeah, I think Fla
Speaker 1: is probably staying in one. I got to check your
Speaker 1: expensive count. It's good time to hear though. It's nice,
Speaker 1: nice and worm in uh in London. But now here's
Speaker 1: the other then. The total value of the UK's royal
Speaker 1: property portfolio is three points seven billion pounds UM, up
Speaker 1: four hundred and sixty million pounds since two. So uh,
Speaker 1: this is my favorite line of the story. If the
Speaker 1: ten figures for a London home seems a bit steep,
Speaker 1: but cartley Stone also calculates Buckingham Palace could be rented
Speaker 1: for two point six million pounds a month, so come on, yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe that's the way to go, you know something. YouTuber
Speaker 1: would rent that out for a party in a heartbeat,
Speaker 1: it would. I mean, conference right, I don't know if
Speaker 1: you get the guard for that price with the fuzzy
Speaker 1: hats and the and the marching front and stuff, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I went I went down that rabbit hole
Speaker 1: a little bit because I googled what the Duchy of
Speaker 1: Cromwell was because I was very curious. You know, they
Speaker 1: started with the whole Megan and Hairy drama like the
Speaker 1: Duchy and the finances started coming out, and as an
Speaker 1: informed American, I had to google with a lot of
Speaker 1: things meant. But yeah, the royal family is has I mean,
Speaker 1: they own a lot of land. It helps when you
Speaker 1: owned it for hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands of years.
Speaker 1: I mean talk about you know, real estate investment. That
Speaker 1: that's been huge for them. Yeah, buy and hold at
Speaker 1: its finest. I suppose because it diamond hand. The Queen's
Speaker 1: definitely got no state taxes. Somehow, I don't get that.
Speaker 1: When you set the laws, you get to do what
Speaker 1: you want. That's right, that's it. That's the key. That's
Speaker 1: the key to good investment. Get to set the laws. Victory.
Speaker 1: I think that is all the time we have, But
Speaker 1: we really really appreciate your insights this week. Um. Great
Speaker 1: to catch up with you and I hope we can
Speaker 1: have your back some day. Absolutely, it's fun, guys. Thanks
Speaker 1: so much, Yeah, thank you so much. What Goes Up.
Speaker 1: We'll be back next week and so then you can
Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or
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Speaker 1: took the time to rate and review the show on
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, so more listeners can find us. And you
Speaker 1: can find us on Twitter follow me at Reaganonymous. Well,
Speaker 1: Donna Hirich is at Bildanna Hirich. You can also follow
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Speaker 1: Stacy Wang. The head of Bloomberg podcast is francesco Leavie.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, See you next time.