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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What comes Up a weekly markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg and I'm Aldana Higher across asset reporter with Bloomberk.

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Speaker 1: And this week on the show, well the ink was

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Speaker 1: barely dry on all those headlines saying that the SMP

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Speaker 1: five was in a bear market last week and then

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Speaker 1: it began to rebound a bit, and we never did

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Speaker 1: get a closing price that was or more below the

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Speaker 1: indexes last record in January. So was that it bear

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Speaker 1: market canceled and the loads are in? Well maybe not.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk with the chief investment officer who was not

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Speaker 1: so sure, and thanks that we're in store for a

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Speaker 1: bit of a cruel summer for stocks. But first, Viltanna,

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Speaker 1: I need to let the listeners know that you're actually

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Speaker 1: in jolly old England as as we speak. Yep, I'm

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Speaker 1: in London. How's that going. I'm having a lot of fun.

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Speaker 1: The Bloomberg office is so huge and it just looks

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Speaker 1: like it's never ending. So I just keep getting lost

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Speaker 1: and running into the same people over and over and

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Speaker 1: asking them for help, and they're like, I already told you.

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Speaker 1: I can't help you, So then I just keep moving

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Speaker 1: on to the next person and the next person and

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Speaker 1: the next person, and I never never ever find my desks.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of like how you are in New York too,

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Speaker 1: though even worse here. Honestly, I'm just wandering around all

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Speaker 1: the time, like on the streets, in the office, the mess.

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Speaker 1: But I'm having a lot of fun. Those friendly Brits,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure are staring in the right direction. But then

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Speaker 1: I gotta say, we did get two more reviews in

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Speaker 1: of the podcast on Apple Podcast. I don't know your

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Speaker 1: coercion strategies work. It is. Let me just read this

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Speaker 1: one to you. Five stars to vill Donna for keeping

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Speaker 1: Mike and check. I don't know what that means. I

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Speaker 1: don't know what that that's referring to great podcast, one

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Speaker 1: of my favorites. They also volunteered to be a tour

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Speaker 1: guide to either of us if we are ever in

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Speaker 1: San Diego. I could use that a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: But I love San Diego. It's my number one favorite

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Speaker 1: city in the world. I think number one. Yeah, you

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Speaker 1: know why, because this person just gave you five stars.

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Speaker 1: That's right now. I'm just kidding because it's sunny three

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Speaker 1: sixty five days, or you know, like Rains wants me

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Speaker 1: one day, yere exactly. Yeah, that's pretty good. And a

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Speaker 1: second one came in It said, wait a second, do

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Speaker 1: we know vol Donna's high school nickname yet? And the

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Speaker 1: answer is not yet. I'm worried that your nickname might

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Speaker 1: be a little boring. So I'm gonna if it's stretch

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Speaker 1: this out. If it's too boring, I'm gonna offer the

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Speaker 1: nickname that the transcription service offers for you, really good

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Speaker 1: software we used to transcribe the podcast because they're they're

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Speaker 1: they're pretty good. They're really really good and just for you,

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Speaker 1: my crazy thing this week is is British themed, So

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Speaker 1: just throwing that out there for you. Okay, but um

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Speaker 1: let's bring in our guest. I'm excited to meet her. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's Victoria Green. She's the founding partner in chief and

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Speaker 1: investment officer G Squared Private Wealth. Victoria, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining us. Absolutely, I was laughing because I

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Speaker 1: definitely need a GPS to get around, and the worst

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Speaker 1: for me is when people are like go north or

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Speaker 1: go south, Like I'm not not Lewis and Clark. I

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Speaker 1: need I need a left or right here, like, please

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Speaker 1: don't tell me to look at the sunbur directions. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna need a little help. I feel the same way. Um,

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Speaker 1: But so you're joining us on the podcast for the

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Speaker 1: first time, I was hoping you could just start out

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Speaker 1: telling us a little bit about your firm. Sure. So,

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Speaker 1: the Square Private Wealth is a boutique advisory firm. We

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Speaker 1: focus more on ultra high out worth and planning and

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Speaker 1: portfolio management for them. We tend to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit boring with our asset allocations. You know, we're not

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Speaker 1: trying to be a hedge fund, uh and what we

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Speaker 1: do think positioning and active management is important. But at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, a lot of our clients

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Speaker 1: are that don't mess it up clients, So you know,

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Speaker 1: we're not looking to necessarily be day traders or anything

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Speaker 1: like that. You know, we never got into the meme

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Speaker 1: stocks where we're a little bit boring that way. Like

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Speaker 1: I feel like traditional asset allocation now, like when you're

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Speaker 1: trying to talk about it, it's just not not sexy anymore.

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Speaker 1: Everybody wants to throw in something in there that that

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Speaker 1: just is like alive in it up. But we do

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Speaker 1: think it's important, especially now you know, we're working very

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Speaker 1: closely with clients about where do we allocate capital, where

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Speaker 1: are we on a bottom or a bear, how long

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Speaker 1: this may last? And and so we spent a lot

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Speaker 1: of time. We have a pretty small book, we're about

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Speaker 1: fifty million, but we've got under a hundred clients. UM,

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Speaker 1: So we spent a lot of the time with the

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Speaker 1: extensive planning and portfolio management for the individual I like

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Speaker 1: that don't don't mess it up strategy, that big, good

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Speaker 1: name for investors, different additive, but I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: allowed on this show. So yes, a family, a family

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Speaker 1: podcast like this, A lot of kids, a lot of

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Speaker 1: kids listening, especially since the beam stocks took off. So

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Speaker 1: we'll see. But you know, Victoria, I always wonder with

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Speaker 1: a firm like Years based in Texas, UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: if if you were managing money in California, I'd wonder,

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Speaker 1: in say, Silicon Valley, I'd wonder if everyone was, you know,

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Speaker 1: very bullish on tech and venture capital. So in Texas

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Speaker 1: I have to wonder, you know, does the energy industry

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Speaker 1: sort of uh influence your clients? You know, are they

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Speaker 1: gung ho about energy or are they looking to diversify energy.

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Speaker 1: How does it sort of influence the investment decisions of

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Speaker 1: high net worth clients in Texas. Yeah, it probably makes

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Speaker 1: them a little more bullish on the energy industry. But

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Speaker 1: some of our clients actually we run x energy because

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Speaker 1: it depends on what their exposures are. So if you

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Speaker 1: have a privately held company or you're on board of

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Speaker 1: a public company, you've already got that exposure. So we're

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Speaker 1: actually kind of trying to diversify and mitigate the concentration.

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Speaker 1: Because everybody in Texas is well aware that the oil

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Speaker 1: market is cyclical, right, so you're ride up the good times,

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Speaker 1: but you know there's a flip side to it at

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Speaker 1: some point, you know. And in this last decade has

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Speaker 1: been super hard in the energy industry. We had like

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Speaker 1: five crashes within ten years, um and and so they're

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Speaker 1: just this waringiness about Okay, yes we are bullish energy

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Speaker 1: and the energy transition. While E s G is coming

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Speaker 1: and electrics coming, it's going to take a little bit

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Speaker 1: longer to adopt than we are seeing that play out

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Speaker 1: here in two So probably I would say not to generalize,

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Speaker 1: but the attitude of a lot of our clients is

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Speaker 1: that the death of energy was over exaggerated. So not

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Speaker 1: to say that there aren't concerns about E. S G

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Speaker 1: or climate change or things like that, but it tends

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Speaker 1: to make them a little bit more willing to have

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Speaker 1: a football hold in that that segment. So I do

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Speaker 1: think it's a little bit of of what you know

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Speaker 1: does influence what you feel comfortable investing in. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: you have the same thing happened in California, and you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're in San Francisco area, you probably are very

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Speaker 1: very comfortable with your tech exposures and a little bit

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Speaker 1: more comfortable with the early stage and the small cap

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Speaker 1: tech and the the innovators per se. That's that's very

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Speaker 1: interesting to me that the next energy portfolio is. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it makes a lot of sense. You know, they know

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Speaker 1: the the home base industry, but to get exposure everything

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Speaker 1: else that they bring in, you guys, it's pretty interesting. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's well, it look at this last decade, like I said,

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Speaker 1: especially like fourteen, and you know you had energy well

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Speaker 1: beloween when you had it well below thirty dollars and

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Speaker 1: you just couldn't get it really above thirty dollars for years,

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Speaker 1: you know, in the Saudias and ope kind of crashing that.

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Speaker 1: I distinctly remember that because I was on vacation for

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Speaker 1: Thanksgiving when OPEC changed their policy, and it really really

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Speaker 1: messed up my Thanksgiving. So I've never forgiven OPEC to that.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I think it's something that investors always

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Speaker 1: have to be aware of their their you know, totality

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Speaker 1: of their portfolio and wealth. So let's say you have

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Speaker 1: your salaries tied up in energy or natural gas and

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Speaker 1: your dock ops and they're tied up in that, or

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Speaker 1: your networks tied up in some sort of energy exposed business,

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Speaker 1: whether it's in uh, you know, the services or fracking

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Speaker 1: or transportation. You just have to be aware of how

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Speaker 1: cyclical up businesses and you kind of want to counterbalance

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Speaker 1: it and say, yeah, I want my portfolio, but I

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Speaker 1: don't want to be focused on energy. I wanted to

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Speaker 1: be diversified because anybody that's lived in Texas for more

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Speaker 1: than ten years knows at some point this it's going

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Speaker 1: to come back down, you know, how long it stays elevated.

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Speaker 1: If this is like A one where we saw that

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Speaker 1: spike on the Gulf Woor, if this is an OH

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Speaker 1: eight where again we saw a spike, but it came

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Speaker 1: back hard. You know, how long does oil stay above

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Speaker 1: a hundred? That's you know, the million dollar question down here.

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Speaker 1: We do tend to think it's gonna stay elevated a

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Speaker 1: little bit longer, just because of the supply demand dynamics.

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Speaker 1: And we did see a lot of things shut down

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Speaker 1: when we had negative energy prices and people were you know,

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Speaker 1: paying you to take and store oil. I mean, wow,

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Speaker 1: what what a difference twenty four months makes between like

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Speaker 1: literally they were paying you to take it and now

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Speaker 1: we're paying you know, five dollars at the pump to

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Speaker 1: get it. Well, I know that you had sent us

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Speaker 1: over our note uh talking about some of the energy

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Speaker 1: names that you do like, so maybe could you walk

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Speaker 1: us through some of them. I think it's like Devon Energy,

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Speaker 1: e o G, Diamondback Energy. And I wanted to ask

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Speaker 1: you because we had Daniel You're going on the podcast

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Speaker 1: recently and he was saying we could continue to see

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Speaker 1: the the supply crunch, meaning that prices are going to

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Speaker 1: continue to stay elevated. Is that also your expectation for

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Speaker 1: the energy? Yeah? I like it. So, And this goes

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Speaker 1: into the greater theme of like what's happening in the

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Speaker 1: world right now, and the de globalization and as you

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Speaker 1: may see Russia removed from the market. You're seeing all

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Speaker 1: of this rebalancing of supply and demand, and it's hitting

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Speaker 1: commodities harder. It's not just energy, it's hitting it's fertilizers,

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Speaker 1: it's it's all of the exports that are in some

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Speaker 1: precious metals. I think, what are they. It's not lithium,

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Speaker 1: it's what's the press palladium. They're a huge, huge supplier

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Speaker 1: of palladium. And so you're seeing this rebalance and shift

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Speaker 1: and all of these things take a lot of time

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Speaker 1: to redistribute and build up supply chains. So our base

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Speaker 1: cases oil is staying elevated for the next eighteen months.

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Speaker 1: I don't see it coming back down. I don't see

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Speaker 1: the demand cruns happening, you know. You know, yeah, China,

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Speaker 1: you kind of live and die by China some But

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Speaker 1: if you look at the travel and the consumption in

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Speaker 1: the United States and Europe and where the trends are

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Speaker 1: um most every developed nation has not does not have

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Speaker 1: a zero COVID policy anymore. It's it's we're gonna just

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Speaker 1: deal with it. I know COVID it's like a dirty

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Speaker 1: word these day because we're so tired of talking about it.

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Speaker 1: But it's still there. I mean, that's what's affecting China

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Speaker 1: and Chinese demand. UM. And Chinese demand may also get

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Speaker 1: a little messy because China and India have shown willingness

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Speaker 1: to buy cheap Russian crewed. Some of its geographically easy

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Speaker 1: for them as well as you know, if they can

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Speaker 1: buy it at thirty dollars and they're you know, concerned

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Speaker 1: about their economic growth. UM. So we may see some

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Speaker 1: demand wane in China, but generally speaking, barrel for the

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Speaker 1: next eight teen months, I think is distinctly possible. You

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Speaker 1: have not seen this wildcat or mentality come back in right.

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Speaker 1: So if you look at the graph of the Baker

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Speaker 1: huge rig count, you know, and you saw like coming

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Speaker 1: up the where like sixteen hundred rigs. And then obviously

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Speaker 1: we had the OPEC change and everybody lost lost lost

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Speaker 1: their ass to be quite frank with you. UM. And

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Speaker 1: and so you saw this grand the investment in the

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Speaker 1: oil and gas industry. And even now we're well well

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Speaker 1: below peak, we're still well below pandemic era UM oil

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Speaker 1: and gas rigs out there. So you have seen oil

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Speaker 1: companies and you'll see this theme. And the oil and

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Speaker 1: gas stocks that I like, the Devon, the e O G,

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Speaker 1: the Fang, you know, UM and the Pioneer. They are

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Speaker 1: US based with a big foot put in the permium.

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Speaker 1: They have low brake events, and they're absolutely pushing cash

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Speaker 1: to shareholders. They are not putting it back on the ground.

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Speaker 1: They are saying, thank you, shareholders for trusting us, here's

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Speaker 1: your money back. Really sorry, we didn't make you money

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Speaker 1: for a decade, but here you go, let's make some

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Speaker 1: money now. But you're not seeing that wild counter mentality

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Speaker 1: that happened with other oil price spikes, because that would

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Speaker 1: happen and you'd have this massive inflow of let's get

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Speaker 1: more rigs out there, and just you know, supplying demand

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Speaker 1: would eventually flip it over you. If you look at

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Speaker 1: the slope of how the rig count has increased, it's

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Speaker 1: a much lower trajectory. Nobody's really pushing a ton of

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Speaker 1: money back into CAPEX. So we love the stocks that

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Speaker 1: are giving our shareholders just a better return right now.

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Speaker 1: Like Devon Energy at a hundred dollars barrel is like

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Speaker 1: a sixtent free cash flow yield. They're pushing out of

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Speaker 1: their free cash flow and a variable dividend every quarter,

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Speaker 1: Like you're talking a lot of money to sit and wait.

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Speaker 1: Plus you might get price appreciations still because they keep

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Speaker 1: making more money. And if you look at where earnings

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Speaker 1: revisions are happening, about the only place that we're thinking

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Speaker 1: earnings are going to go up as energy, And so

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Speaker 1: the pe s there are actually still even with this

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Speaker 1: massive price moving up in a lot of these stocks,

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Speaker 1: the ps are actually still very nominal and very value oriented.

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Speaker 1: I actually I was writing about this earlier this week

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Speaker 1: where there's this e t F. It's like a cash

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Speaker 1: cows The ticker is really funny CEO w Z, but

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Speaker 1: but it's been seeing tons of inflows. And when I

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Speaker 1: was looking at the names within it, their energy names,

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Speaker 1: and it's companies with high free cash flow yields. So

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Speaker 1: does that make sense to you to see something like that,

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Speaker 1: we want cash, we want money. Right now is playing

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Speaker 1: defense and survival, Like not to sound super dour about

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Speaker 1: the world, but by is let's survive as this year

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Speaker 1: with as minimal damage as we can, Like we're trying

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Speaker 1: to avoid falling on hand grenades and avoid it like

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Speaker 1: a complete blow up and I do think the energy sector.

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Speaker 1: I'm aware of commodity price spikes. We can go back

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Speaker 1: and look through all the charts. We actually did this

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Speaker 1: whole big research thing of what's killed off oil markets

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Speaker 1: in the past. So what killed off the nineties oil market,

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Speaker 1: the eighties oil market, oh a, and then the whole

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Speaker 1: decade which was a complete lost decade in oil and gas,

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Speaker 1: and then obviously implosion. Um. But when you look at

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Speaker 1: these companies now you are getting massive cash flows back,

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Speaker 1: and I feel like the cash flows are sustainable. So

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Speaker 1: Devin Energy, I love. They're my top pick in the space,

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Speaker 1: so I do talk about them frequently. But they've got

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Speaker 1: only the oil hedged, so they're actually seeing a lot

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Speaker 1: more of a fern um. You know, that was one

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Speaker 1: problem a little bit with the e m p s

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Speaker 1: last year. We still had pretty high hedges coming out

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Speaker 1: of two thousand uh and then you see those fixed

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Speaker 1: plus variable dividend and now other people have modeled after

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Speaker 1: it is not as unique anymore. But they pushed I

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Speaker 1: think one a dollar twenty seven as a quarterly dividend.

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Speaker 1: It was a great yield. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: how that's grown and how they expect their free cash

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Speaker 1: flow to grow. They're they're they're doing everything they can

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Speaker 1: to make their shareholders reap the rewards that they're getting

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Speaker 1: UM and their share buybacks. I think they authorized another

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Speaker 1: two billion and they've they've literally brought back three of

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Speaker 1: their market cap. So if Devin thinks they're stocks worth owning,

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Speaker 1: you know, share by backs are one of the good

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Speaker 1: uses of cash, and it's a way to enhance your

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Speaker 1: shareholder value. Victoria wondering what you think is causing that

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Speaker 1: sort of you know, as you describe it, that wildcat

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Speaker 1: or mentality from returning UM. Is it's simply just a

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Speaker 1: legacy of the busts that that you've talked about in

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Speaker 1: the last few decades, or you know, people love to

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Speaker 1: politicize oil production and claim it's it's a result of

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Speaker 1: you know, Biden and and energy policy. But is it

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Speaker 1: you know, is there anything that policy could do right

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Speaker 1: now to increase production or is it just you know,

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Speaker 1: like you said, Uh, those busts of the last few

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Speaker 1: decades have really left their scar and no one wants

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Speaker 1: to rush in and oversupply the market right now. I

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Speaker 1: think it's more they don't want to oversupply the markets

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Speaker 1: I mean, like like if you again, if you look

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Speaker 1: at the rig count and how we've messed up some

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Speaker 1: of these other other um bull markets and oil, it's

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Speaker 1: been an oversupply eventually happens, and that's typical and most

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Speaker 1: commodity markets, right, commodity prices spike, you bring more production online.

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Speaker 1: Now you're supplying demand rebalances. We never actually get balanced.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever actually seen it come out

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Speaker 1: of your market that we would consider balanced. Were either

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Speaker 1: under supplied or oversupplied. And quite frankly, the last two years,

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Speaker 1: we've had this whiplash between the two um and that's

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Speaker 1: something we'll talk about frequently down here. The Biden administration

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Speaker 1: and the US energy industry do not have a good relationship.

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Speaker 1: I think that's putting it mildly. I think there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of angst about government regulations. I think there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of you know, there's a lot of rhetoric about

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Speaker 1: you know, the then the Biden administration is definitely pushing

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Speaker 1: greener and and climate change issues in the oil and

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Speaker 1: gas industry. It definitely felt a little unloved. But I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure there's anything that Biden administration could do. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they could open up some more leases, but you actually

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Speaker 1: have a lot of people that have a lot of

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Speaker 1: leasing and permitting. And if you look at the timeline

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Speaker 1: between when when a company can buy a lease, so

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Speaker 1: when they actually like get that gasoline in your car,

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Speaker 1: it's years and years. I mean, there's permitting, then you

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Speaker 1: actually have to drill it, then you actually have to

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Speaker 1: like pump the oil out of it. Then you gotta

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Speaker 1: transport it, then you gotta refine it, and then you

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Speaker 1: gotta transport to gas stations, and all of those things

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Speaker 1: take a lot of permitting. So could it be eased

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Speaker 1: if if regulations were eased, you know, that's that's the

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Speaker 1: rallying cry of less regulation and less government coming from Texas.

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Speaker 1: But at the same point, it's not going to immediately

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Speaker 1: make an impact on the pump. You know, look at

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Speaker 1: the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That did nothing.

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Speaker 1: You know, at the end of the day, that did

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Speaker 1: nothing to relieve it because some of it you just

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Speaker 1: don't have enough refinery capacity right now. You have some

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Speaker 1: refiners golf most refineries are finding it at So could

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Speaker 1: the industry and the government have a better relationship, Yes,

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Speaker 1: could that foster a little bit more drilling. Yes, Is

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Speaker 1: it going to bring back a lot of supply quickly, No,

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Speaker 1: just because of the timeline it would take between like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go get that lease and get it all

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Speaker 1: permitted and get it drilled. It's not like it's showing

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Speaker 1: up at you know, the gas station tomorrow. And just

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Speaker 1: to bring us back to the broader market. Obviously, every

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Speaker 1: conversation I've had this week has revolved around whether or

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Speaker 1: not we've had a bottom, whether or not we've hit

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Speaker 1: it or probed it or tried to form it or

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Speaker 1: you know, I've heard some people saying that we are.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a rounded bottom. It's going to

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Speaker 1: take some time to to to form. So I'm just

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Speaker 1: wondering what you think and what you're expecting from the market.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we found a bottom yet. I know

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Speaker 1: Friday was a really great turnaround. We had that important

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Speaker 1: thirty fifteen support level held and that was huge and

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Speaker 1: that kind of caused that interday reversal. You know, yesterday

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Speaker 1: you saw a rally off. I know we're on the

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Speaker 1: tech side. We are approaching that very long term trend

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Speaker 1: line that we might break through. Um, I just think

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Speaker 1: we're we're not done yet. You know, I think there

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Speaker 1: is a little bit more of the first leg because

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Speaker 1: I always asked, you know, what is our catalyst? How

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Speaker 1: are we going to get growth? You really haven't seen

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Speaker 1: a lot of earning revisions, and so we talk about, well,

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Speaker 1: valuations have come down. Yeah, the the P part of

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Speaker 1: the P and E have come down. What happens when

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Speaker 1: the E starts to go back down to you know,

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Speaker 1: there's two parts to that. And if we don't have

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Speaker 1: earnings expansion or at least earning staying status quo, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see valuations maybe aren't quite as low as they're

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Speaker 1: looking now. Um. You know that being said, it has held.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think we're done yet. I think this

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Speaker 1: is more of a relief rally. Um. If you look

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Speaker 1: for the signs of capitulation, down age, the VIC spiking, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're just not there yet. Yeah. Cash balances

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Speaker 1: have have definitely increased, and yes we've seen some equity selling,

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Speaker 1: but not a well and true panic. Like not to

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Speaker 1: sound like a snob, but I need like a solid panic.

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Speaker 1: You know, we just haven't seen that that that solid

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Speaker 1: absolute capitulation. Everything selling off, you know, we we we

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Speaker 1: aren't there yet. And then my concern also where is

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Speaker 1: your growth where you know margins are definitely being squeezed,

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Speaker 1: and and we we're gonna have to wait until the

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Speaker 1: FED can send the economy into a recession to stop

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Speaker 1: some of this. And my oppression is you think that's

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Speaker 1: kind of inevitable that you know, the Fed's not going

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Speaker 1: to be able to bring inflation from eight percent plus

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Speaker 1: back to their target without they triggering I I not

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Speaker 1: that I don't. Yeah, I mean I would. I would

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Speaker 1: say I would love and I would challenge somebody to say,

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Speaker 1: has the FED ever navigated a difficult situation? Well, not

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Speaker 1: to rip on them, it's a thankless job because they're

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Speaker 1: either too early, too late, too harsh, too too easy money.

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Speaker 1: You know, they never get it just right. But you

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Speaker 1: look at any other situation we've had high inflation or

404
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Speaker 1: is any type of bubble irrational exuberance, you know green span,

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Speaker 1: you know, you go through your history here and and

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Speaker 1: I'm just like, prove it to me, show me a

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Speaker 1: soft landing, show me that you actually can can navigate

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Speaker 1: this and not just like nose dive. And I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's any way. Well, I I guess the only

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Speaker 1: way people think it could happen is if the supply

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Speaker 1: chain issues sort themselves out, which seems unlikely with China

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Speaker 1: stick into this COVID zero policy. I mean, does it

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Speaker 1: Does it all kind of go back to China as

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Speaker 1: much as the FED? Yeah, I would say the FED.

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Speaker 1: You know, if we were gonna talk about the heavyweights

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Speaker 1: here and what's going to impact it, one is fed

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Speaker 1: to is China and global demand UM. And China is

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Speaker 1: definitely a wild card. It's always a little questionable what

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Speaker 1: their growth numbers are. I feel like you've got to

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Speaker 1: take that a bit with the grain assault. Whatever China

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Speaker 1: says they're doing, kind of kind of have to divide

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Speaker 1: it by a factor of fives to see what it's

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Speaker 1: really like. You know, what's lurking in China's market? Uh?

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Speaker 1: You know the housing over there is that kind of

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Speaker 1: rolling over How much? How many? How much problems does

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Speaker 1: the Chinese market have, not just on demand but the

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Speaker 1: zero COVID policy? UM? And then you know you talk

428
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,479
Speaker 1: about moving supply chains and resiliency and supply chains. Again,

429
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 1: these are not easy things to fix. You can't just

430
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 1: build a chip factory and call it. You know, Tuscaloosa

431
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: in a day, you're talking about massive resources. And if

432
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 1: you look at it, like aw, semi conductors start in

433
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,399
Speaker 1: Taiwan almost they're they're just the mecca and they have

434
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 1: the technology and the expertise, and it is extremely the

435
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 1: number of circus they're putting on semi conductors, which is

436
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: like the problem child for supply chain, right, Like, if

437
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 1: you're gonna talk about supply chain, semiconductors was like the

438
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 1: number one thing that really messed up the entire world.

439
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: I don't think you can move a lot of that

440
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 1: stuff easily out of Taiwan because it's they're putting so

441
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: much on those tiny little chips. It's such a specialized

442
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: build with specialized technology. You can't just like pop it

443
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: up like you can build a McDonald's. Can I ask

444
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 1: you about peak inflation because I was reading some notes

445
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 1: this week that that actually we're talking about China where

446
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: we had everybody saying in the last couple of weeks

447
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 1: that maybe we have hit peak inflation, and yet we

448
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: now have China coming out of those lockdowns and that's

449
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 1: gonna sort of have this put for the pressure on prices.

450
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 1: So what do you see in terms of inflation peak maybe,

451
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 1: but declining No, So I think there are different magnitudes here.

452
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 1: So are we going to continue to see eight and

453
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 1: a half year over year increases? Probably not right. So

454
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 1: have we hit kind of our peak growth and inflation?

455
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: Are we going to see inflation moderate or moderate quickly

456
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: down to a more normalized level. No. I think we

457
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: leave this year at a six handle. Like I think

458
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 1: there's just too much pressure. The only caveat to that

459
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 1: would be at the labor market and the housing market crashed.

460
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 1: You can see those two things obviously rapid they bring

461
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 1: down inflation. But look at you know, if you start

462
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 1: to take apart inflation, we're pending spending a lot on services.

463
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: Airlines are super happy, right They're charging US eleven twelve

464
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: percent more, and they can keep hiking tickets and we

465
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: keep buying them because we're so excited to travel again.

466
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: You know, the same thing for for most services right now,

467
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: you're seeing more and more hiking on the upside. And

468
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: then look at the supply constrained areas like food. Food

469
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: is actually something that I think is a huge risk.

470
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: You know, we're a little more secure here in the

471
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 1: United States, but if you look at what happened in

472
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 1: Ukraine and all of the areas that Ukraine supplied wheat

473
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 1: and some of the basic stables for uh. You again,

474
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 1: you're seeing a supply taking off the market. That's gonna

475
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: put more pressure on everybody else. And then we have

476
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 1: some of our own crop problems. You know, farmers are

477
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 1: struggling some with weather, higher fertilizing prices, higher diesel prices, um,

478
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: and so you know, no, we're not having like a

479
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: major flu outbreak or swine flu where we're having to

480
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: kill off herds. But at the same point, I think

481
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: you have a lot of sure on food. You have

482
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on the fuels. I don't see

483
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 1: the fuel inflation crash or so you start kind of

484
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 1: parsing apart cp I on some of the inflation and saying,

485
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 1: what do I think has wiggle room. I do think

486
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 1: maybe rent and and average probe prices could come down.

487
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 1: I mean the mortgage you know, some of the housing

488
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: data we're getting is not super amazing. So I think

489
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 1: you can start to see possibly outside roll over, But

490
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: a lot of the other things energy, food, UM, and

491
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: then services, I don't see that coming back. Yeah, I

492
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: think that food supply story is about to become a

493
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 1: very dramatic story over the next few months. As long

494
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: as this were continues, it's gonna it's alarming. Um h.

495
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 1: Victoria value over growth. Um It's it's sort of the

496
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 1: Crips versus the blood story and markets all the time.

497
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 1: I would ask a very simple question. It might seem oversimplified,

498
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: but the more I read about value and growth, the

499
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 1: less I think it is. But how do you define value?

500
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: You what's your definition of a value stock? Uh? I

501
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: mean one goes to peo or the price you're paying

502
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 1: for your dollar of earnings, right, And so when you

503
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: look at a value stock, you want to say, hey,

504
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: we don't have this great growth trajectory. We expect some growth,

505
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,199
Speaker 1: but I'm paying a moderate amount of premium for this

506
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: dollar of earnings that you're gonna give me. So I

507
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: feel like it's reasonably valued for for what you're gonna

508
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 1: give me and the fact that you're not gonna have

509
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 1: exponential growth. So I think again, it's trading out a

510
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: reasonable price of reasonable valuation based upon the cash flows,

511
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: dividends and and the the earnings that you're expected to have. Now,

512
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of kind of you know,

513
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 1: growth and drag. Value kind of dressed up a little

514
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: bit differently because the question is the sustainability of earning.

515
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 1: So when you look at a value stock, is that

516
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: stock truly a value stock where I feel like I'm

517
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: not over paying for your cash flow in the future

518
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: if their earnings are at risk. And I think a

519
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: little bit, you know, when we can talk about the

520
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 1: duration of the stock and and you know what what's

521
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 1: happening in the ewth market. But I think that's one

522
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: thing investors need to be aware of. It's a trajectory

523
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 1: and projection of earnings and cash flows for those companies,

524
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: um and and and how stable and how resilient are

525
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: those And that's why I think you saw that retail

526
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 1: wreck of a week last week, and and because you

527
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 1: saw a lot of retailers saying, look, we're hitting inflationary prices, uh,

528
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 1: and we're not going to be able to actually generate

529
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: as much money. And a lot of those retailers are

530
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: kind of a little more retailer staples. You know your

531
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: your Walmart's right, let's let's pick on Walmart. You know,

532
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 1: they're like the end all be all of consumer staples.

533
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 1: If you think about consumer staples. You think about Walmart

534
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: and the fact that they warned about where their growth

535
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: and their margins are going to come from. Even though

536
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: it's not a hugely over valued stock, if you look

537
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 1: at it on matrix of price the book or price

538
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: the e but a price the earnings, it still took

539
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 1: a hit because there's just like, if you're not going

540
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 1: to generate that much cash, maybe I don't even want

541
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: to pay you know, fifteen times because it's just not

542
00:26:58,119 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: worth it if you're not going to generate enough or

543
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: so I think quality is key, but sustainability and where

544
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 1: those cash flows come from. You know, how exposed are

545
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 1: you to a consumer slowdown? How azilian are you to

546
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: the consumer pocketbook taking it? Because I mean the consumer

547
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 1: is being asked to absorb so much right when you

548
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: think about it. Rants are high, gas is high, food

549
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: is high. Those three things or something no human being

550
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 1: in the United States can really avoid, right, Yeah, it

551
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: Walmarts a good example I was taking target to. I

552
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: mean it's you know, you're looking at a stock with

553
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: an eleven or twelve p right now, and everyone's saying

554
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 1: value value, value, Well, it's it's trickier than it sounds.

555
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 1: I guess it is, and technically they're discretionary. I don't

556
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 1: know exactly how we drew that line between Walmart being

557
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: Staples staples and Target being discretionary, because I mean, I

558
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: guess the tar J maybe as discretionary, but Target Staples,

559
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how we want to delineate that. But yeah,

560
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: they're they're the example of you know, how much risk

561
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: is their their margins and their earning is going to

562
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 1: be and you are seeing changing in consumer buying habits

563
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 1: um best buy, you know, but you also have for

564
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: mixed signals right now of what this buy. I mean Nordstrom.

565
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 1: Somehow Target had a horrible earnings, but Nordstrom it was

566
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: just fine and and and excited and upbeat like that.

567
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 1: That to me was a little bit of like I

568
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 1: needed a drink after reading that, because if that one's

569
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: a little crazy to me, Yeah, it's it's kind of

570
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: the opposite of what you would expect in a recessionary environment,

571
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 1: or at least concerns of a recessionary environment. Victoria, So

572
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: can you talk about value versus growth because I've been

573
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: seeing some notes recently. Let's say the sell off and

574
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: growth has just it's gone on too long. It's it's overdone,

575
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 1: and maybe it's time to start, you know, dipping your

576
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: toe in the growth splace? What do you make of that?

577
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: So your kids in a falling knife or you know,

578
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: the other way I look at it, you're kind of

579
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: looking for diamonds, and a pilot turns what you are.

580
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: You're you're looking for things, and we have one like,

581
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: no video is one we really like? You know, I

582
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: may have a little we'll see what they look like

583
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: after earnings. But you look and you have NA Video

584
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: or Apple and some of the big ones, you know,

585
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: the Luster, the fang stocks or the Magma stocks or

586
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: whatever we're referring to them. Now. I'm not cool enough

587
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 1: to know what the acronym is. Always I don't care

588
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: if their name is Meta, is always going to be fang.

589
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: I'm not calling it. Yeah, a large cap tech Uh

590
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: you know, they're they're the poster child for the problems.

591
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: I think it's just so much. So let's let's start

592
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: parsing apart the tech market, right. Social media is one,

593
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: I think, uh, and Snap scared everybody yesterday of where

594
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: where the advertising dollars going to go? And social media

595
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 1: I think is so fickle because as soon as you

596
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: have and even a Netflix goes into that one, your

597
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: subscription based or your eyeball based business, and especially ones

598
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: that you're trying to you know, make the teenagers and

599
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: the use of the world engaged so you get the

600
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: biggest bang on your buck for advertising, you know. I

601
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: think it's it's a fickle world. In ten years, As

602
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: Facebook still relevant, I'm not sure as a social media platform.

603
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: So if you try to stress test some of the

604
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: earnings for Facebook, a Twitter, a snap and say, in

605
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: ten years, is this platform still relevant, It's hard to know.

606
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,479
Speaker 1: I mean I was kind of thought we'd have flying

607
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: cars by now, but you know, not yet. I mean

608
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: not unless you have to overpass a little too fast yours. Yeah,

609
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: I mean some of those things. Your trajectory on where

610
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: the tech market goes, I think is what makes growth

611
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: so hard. And that's why we like in the video

612
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: because they're kind of continuing to modify. It's not just gaming.

613
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: You also are getting into your data centers, you're getting

614
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: the self driving cars. You're seeing the company continue to progress,

615
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: and Facebook is trying to do that, but quite frankly,

616
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: everybody is kind of you know, the metaverse is something

617
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: that we're all struggling with. Even though multiple technologies now

618
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: are talking about the metaverse type of situation. They want

619
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: this all encompassing universe. Um, it's it's something I think

620
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: we're having trouble kind of agreeing to move to this

621
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: encompassing virtual reality world. Um. But then again, I'm an

622
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: old millennial, so I barely know what's hip anymore. So

623
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 1: I maybe shouldn't be a parting on on what happens.

624
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: But I think that's the hardest problem with the tech industry.

625
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: So as Apple still relevant in ten years, I think absolutely,

626
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: because Apple has definitely continued to modify, They're getting more

627
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: into health. The first person that gets their smart watch

628
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: to do blood pressure or blood sugar and do it

629
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: well is going to absolutely have a massive growth engine

630
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: because it certainly health is pushing more and more virtual

631
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: and mobile and and you know, and ways that people

632
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: can manage their health has changed. And I know Apple,

633
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: you know they can do the e k G and

634
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: they can do heart rate monitoring. But as soon as

635
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: you have those two things, that's gonna rapidly change how

636
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: millions of people receive services. So I look at Apple

637
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 1: and I say, yeah, they're continuing to evolve. And I'm

638
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: sure at some point I'm gonna pay two thousand dollars

639
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: for a stupid phone. But I'm all in on at Like,

640
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: I've got my AirPod, my phone, my iPod, my watch.

641
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 1: I mean, I couldn't leave Apple, you know, I could

642
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: never divorce Apple would be so messy. I wouldn't even

643
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: know what to do. They make so many decisions for me.

644
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: They make it easy. They're like, cool, we have this

645
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 1: set up here. Do you like it. I'm like, yeah,

646
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: that's great, thank you for pouching that for me. And

647
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: that's very helpful. Mike, I was I was invited to

648
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 1: a conference in the metaverse this week, A conference in

649
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: the metaverse. A conference in the metaverse. I will say,

650
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: I think Victoria the metaverse may be the only place

651
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,719
Speaker 1: you'll get those flying cars anytime, anytime soon. And I'm

652
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 1: a little confused. I mean, so if you go to

653
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: a conference in the metaverse, you have to have like

654
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: the VR goggles like in your little VR avatar, or

655
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: do you just like show up in a zoom room

656
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 1: like this and it's a horrible like non conference conference.

657
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: I think it's that is a planthetic conference and a

658
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: metaverse I want like VR and avatars like come on.

659
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: That means that means we're cut in the metaverse right now,

660
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: and this only count. The only innovation I would like

661
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 1: from Apple is a watch band that actually stays on

662
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: your wrist. I love to watch, but the band keeps

663
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: falling off for some reason. Anyway, just a mommoo, Tim

664
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: Cook if you I think. I think the thing that

665
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: Apple is very good at is their their base successories

666
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: kind of sucks. So they're like, please upgrade to your

667
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: four watch band. So I think it cheap and poor,

668
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 1: and so that's it. They know I'll lose the watch

669
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: eventually and have to have to buy a do on

670
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: and stuff. But but Victoria, you know, uh, the big

671
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 1: question this year is, obviously, how do you play defense

672
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 1: in this stock market? I gotta say that when I

673
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: look at the bond yields where they're at now, Yes,

674
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 1: I know they're still negative on a on a real

675
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: basis and inflation adjusted, but if you have some sort

676
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 1: of faith that inflation is going to come back to two,

677
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: you know, are treasuries attractive? Yet? Are they? Are they

678
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: looking cheap to you at all? Yeah? I mean well,

679
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: I mean I like them or at three twenty that

680
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:02,959
Speaker 1: I do at to seventy five on a tenure, and

681
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 1: I think that's one of the thing driving them down.

682
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: And I also think this is what is not voting

683
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: well for the markets. You know, the first part of

684
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 1: the year was such an anomaly where you had treasuries

685
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: falling at the same time you had the market selling off,

686
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: which typically that correlation is not something that's very high. Um.

687
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 1: And so now you've seen the correlation break and normalize,

688
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: which is market is kind of in the toilet, and

689
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: treasury market is rallying, and that does mean, you know,

690
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 1: the tenure rallying. So it's a little less that's more

691
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 1: about long term inflationary you know, if you look more

692
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 1: at the two year and what's happening with that, that's

693
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: more our short term expectations. UM. But I do think

694
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 1: like to seventy five, I mean, what is it negative

695
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: on a real basis that at eight and a half

696
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 1: percent inflation? I mean the only thing not negative on

697
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: a real basis is stocks and and and even then

698
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 1: and not divided yields. So I do think parking some

699
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 1: and playing defense there is good. You know, I'd watched

700
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 1: your high yield bonds. I think a lot of people

701
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 1: don't know what they own in a bond fund, and

702
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 1: and a lot of them until recently, the best performing

703
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 1: bond funds were the longer duration, higher credit right. And

704
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: so sometimes if you're trying, you're looking at your four

705
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: own K plan, you're looking at your menu, and you're

706
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: seeing these total returns, or you're um, you know, anything

707
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: that's opportunistic, you know, and that's my keyword. If there's

708
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: opportunistic in a bond fund, that means there's probably credit risk.

709
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: And so I think people learned the hard way a

710
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 1: little bit more about credit risk. But I think you

711
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: do play some defense. I mean two seventy five, you know,

712
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 1: if you can get you're seeing the short term rates

713
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: come up. Um, then again you might be losing on

714
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 1: a real basis, but you can at least make something.

715
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: And and we're coming off such a period of low rates.

716
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: I'm like, I could buy a six months bond at

717
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 1: one and a half, Like, oh my goodness, Like that's

718
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: just amazing, Like I'm so excited for other nicest points. So,

719
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: I mean, some of it's just a more normalization of

720
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 1: where we might see yields, but um, you know, I

721
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 1: do think it's it's worth it to have a little

722
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 1: bit in that. You know. The one that's been surprising,

723
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: it's gold. Gold really hasn't been you know. If you

724
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: talk about how do you play defense in your portfolio,

725
00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: is it cash, treasuries, other bonds, alter natives. You know,

726
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: some of the alternatives have done very well, you know,

727
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: but you also have seen gold which is up, but

728
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: it's not in this high inflationary period. You really have

729
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 1: seen it struggle to break nine day above it um

730
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: and it keeps trying and it keeps really not breaking out.

731
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 1: So I think that's been eye opening talk about this

732
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: year of both bond and or gold and bitcoin. The

733
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:27,479
Speaker 1: tried and true inflationary, supposedly inflationary offsets haven't really done

734
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: what they're supposed to do. And I think Bitcoin has

735
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 1: had a lot of a gut check this year in

736
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 1: a period of massive monetary spending and printing money and

737
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: high inflation. That was like the two core tenants of

738
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 1: why bitcoin should work to offset those two things, and

739
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: it's down what this year. Well, those core tenants are

740
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 1: kind of a moving target though a little bit so,

741
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 1: so I take it you're not a crypto ball. No.

742
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I do believe in blockchain, and I like

743
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: the idea um and you know, every now and then

744
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 1: in his thirty or a thousand dollars in my coin

745
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 1: based account. But I mean I look at this and

746
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: say it's I think it's gonna really depend what coin

747
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 1: and how does it get used? Right, So we talk

748
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 1: about cryptocurrencies, and it's not just Bitcoin or ethereum. You

749
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: have all these different coins, but how are they actually

750
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: going to be used? You know, I know there's the

751
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: novelty of technically you could buy like a Tesla with it,

752
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: but that's such a inefficient way because the price fluctuate

753
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: so much as well as there's a lot of you know,

754
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 1: the mark to market. How do you know exactly so

755
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: what the price of bitcoin is? And and you know,

756
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 1: anytime there's a free app, which I'm aware of, that

757
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 1: that you are you you are the products. So that

758
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 1: means somehow when you're transacting it's not just a transaction fee.

759
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: But it's very hard to know what the markups. Maybe

760
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 1: our true pricing transparency on on crypto is a little

761
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 1: bit harder, it's still it's it's it's very much a

762
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: frontier market. Regulation has not really been figured out yet.

763
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,720
Speaker 1: I mean the I r S figured it out real quick.

764
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 1: I mean they're tax it too, you know. So the

765
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 1: I R S was the first one to catch on that,

766
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 1: hey we we got to do something here. But I

767
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: think the existential question of is it a currency, is

768
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 1: it an investment? Is it of an alternative investment? You know?

769
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: And then how does it get used and adopted? I

770
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 1: think those are are yet to be seen. Yeah, alright, Victoria. Well,

771
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,959
Speaker 1: if if you try to pay for your flying uber

772
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: in the metaverse and they only take crypto, I'm gonna

773
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: they only take My craziest thing it does have to

774
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: do with crypto. Imagine that, Imagine that you found something

775
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 1: crazy in the crypto. Yes, let's hear, what's your crazy

776
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: thing for the week. Well, you'll remember that a couple

777
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 1: of weeks ago I was in Miami and the big

778
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: bitcoin conference there. There were twenty five thousand people. There

779
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: was like lots of parties and techno music, and the

780
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 1: mayor of Miami unveiled bitcoin bull statue. And my craziest

781
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: thing is about Miami Coin, which is the city's cryptocurrency.

782
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 1: Its price has fallen Wow, the stable coins are a

783
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 1: little less stable. I mean that's been that's been a

784
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 1: boy enlightening for people. Yeah. I like how Vildonna's in

785
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,479
Speaker 1: London one week, Miami the next week, an international woman

786
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 1: of mystery. Here. They don't let me out of the

787
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: zip code. Here. I can barely go to lunch without

788
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 1: someone complaining watching the flight attendant. So I definitely think

789
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: you're a c I a spy. Now like watching it too?

790
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 1: What a fun show, right, it's a good show. It's good.

791
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 1: I did think season one was a little bit better

792
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: than two, but two is still very, very entertaining. So definitely,

793
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna assume you work for the CIA. Now

794
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 1: I gotta watch that one. It's like a murder mystery

795
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,399
Speaker 1: and a TV show. Oh that's right up Phil Donna's alley. Yeah,

796
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: I love that stuff. Yeah, I never heard of it.

797
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: You know, Victoria, you say you're an older millennial when

798
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 1: you're out of touch Wall, I'm practically a boomer. I

799
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:22,359
Speaker 1: have no idea what's going on any anywhere. It's true.

800
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 1: But that's why I bill Donna to keep me, keep

801
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: me up to date on the hip. And yeah, I

802
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: do like a cheap seat sometimes to talk to like

803
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: our next gen clients when I'm talking to their kids,

804
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: because I'm like, I don't want to be like the

805
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 1: parody where it's like, oh, yeah, that's whack, like you

806
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 1: know or whatever the hip terms are. So I maybe

807
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 1: like a translation. I think Google should should come out

808
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: with that, right, like how to speak next Gen, so

809
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 1: you know, and I don't. I still don't know if

810
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: it's a gift or a jeff or a meme or mam. Like,

811
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm fifty of what I'm going to

812
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 1: say and how it gets pronounced. So definitely not cool

813
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 1: in that regards. I try to rely on my teenage daughters,

814
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: but they're they're too far, too avant card, they're too

815
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,439
Speaker 1: ahead of the curve that that you know, I'm talking

816
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: done at TikTok. Uh. Yeah, I've been in a lot

817
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: of TikTok's I'm not even aware of. I think they

818
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: try to catch me doing something stupid and that's my worst.

819
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 1: That is my worst. Yeah. Yeah, that I'm going to

820
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 1: be the background of somebody's TikTok and I'm gonna like

821
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 1: become this internet sensation for like stuffing my face as

822
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 1: people are dancing or something like that. I'm pretty sure

823
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: that's where I'm at already. But but Victoria, how about you,

824
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 1: what's the craziest thing you saw in the past week. Um,

825
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 1: has it only been a week. We'll give you a month.

826
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 1: We'll give you a month of crazy things. A month

827
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 1: of crazy thing. It's a good month to be crazy.

828
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna have to just go with some

829
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 1: of the weird inter day reversals we've had. Like, I

830
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 1: know that's not tooper crazy, but again, we've seen those

831
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 1: like thousand points moves in a day, and sometimes you

832
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 1: really don't know, like the Invisible hand is has been

833
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 1: at work this this month, so you've seen some of

834
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 1: those weird reversals, and um, you know that to me

835
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: is a little surprising. And then obviously, I think the

836
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 1: weird thing for me is cash that last thirty minutes

837
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 1: of trading. I'm like holding my breath because sometimes it's like, oh,

838
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 1: we'll get this reversal, and sometimes it's like, mmmm, now

839
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 1: watch me drop. And I don't really like that. But

840
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 1: I think the the speed of some of these moves,

841
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: it's just it's fascinating to watch it really is. I mean,

842
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 1: I guess it's for liquidity to some degree. But I

843
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: read a few charts the other day and Bitcoin has

844
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 1: actually been less bottle than the SMP on like a

845
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 1: five day rolling five day basis. So this week's sign

846
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: of the apocalypse. I mean, I don't know what else

847
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 1: I might be like, it's your apocalypse bingo card out,

848
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 1: but Bitcoin being more stable than the is I mean,

849
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: you get be a winner if you called that one. Yeah,

850
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: exactly that believe it or not. That's not the craziest

851
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,280
Speaker 1: thing I saw in the last week. As I promised,

852
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: mine is uh British themed in honor vill Donna's very

853
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 1: large expense account for the week, I'm gonna have to

854
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: not to take a look at your expense account after

855
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: this week, Bildonna. But if you would like to live

856
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 1: like a royal is how the Bloomberg story starts out.

857
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 1: How much would you pay for Buckingham Palace? Some firm

858
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 1: called McCarty stone actually did a an appraisal of Buckingham Palace. Um.

859
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 1: I don't know why, I think just to get their

860
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 1: name in the news. They are a developer of retirement

861
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 1: home communities, so perhaps this being the pashious retirement home

862
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: in all of England. They appraised Buckingham Palace, so Wildonna.

863
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: We'll tell you what time it is. Victoria's time to

864
00:43:56,160 --> 00:44:00,040
Speaker 1: play prices right here on what goes up? What do

865
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 1: you think the appraised worth of Buckingham Palace is in

866
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: British pounds sterling by the way, not US dollars obviously,

867
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 1: I mean much difference now, I mean we're almost going

868
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 1: to be a bit more. That's a fair point. That's

869
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: a fair point. Okay, I'll accept either. Then do it.

870
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: What's your what's your appraisal for Buckingham Palace? Well, I

871
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:27,439
Speaker 1: think British people would definitely say priceless, right, that's true.

872
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: That's true, and it is and it's not really it's

873
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 1: obviously not really for sale. Brexit hasn't been that bead

874
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 1: on the on the Royals. They're not actually selling it.

875
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: Let me give you a little, a little uh details

876
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 1: on the listing here, seven hundred and seventy five room.

877
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 1: Whoa palace, seven hundred and seventy five rooms with five

878
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 1: hundred fifty million pounds five fifty million pounds. Victoria, what's

879
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 1: your guests at the assessed value of Buckingham Palace? I'm

880
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 1: gonna go with the prices right rules on, we're gonna

881
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: go four or five forty nine million British pounds because right,

882
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 1: we're playing prices right rules, so close, that's what we're under. Yes,

883
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 1: so right, so you're going a dollar under under okay,

884
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 1: one point three billion pounds. That's a hot real estate

885
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 1: market in London, I guess, is uh answer. Yeah. I've

886
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: also heard castles aren't that super fun to stay in.

887
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 1: They're kind of drafty and cold. Yeah, I think Fla

888
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: is probably staying in one. I got to check your

889
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: expensive count. It's good time to hear though. It's nice,

890
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 1: nice and worm in uh in London. But now here's

891
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: the other then. The total value of the UK's royal

892
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 1: property portfolio is three points seven billion pounds UM, up

893
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 1: four hundred and sixty million pounds since two. So uh,

894
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 1: this is my favorite line of the story. If the

895
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 1: ten figures for a London home seems a bit steep,

896
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:04,760
Speaker 1: but cartley Stone also calculates Buckingham Palace could be rented

897
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: for two point six million pounds a month, so come on, yeah,

898
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 1: maybe that's the way to go, you know something. YouTuber

899
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 1: would rent that out for a party in a heartbeat,

900
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 1: it would. I mean, conference right, I don't know if

901
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: you get the guard for that price with the fuzzy

902
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: hats and the and the marching front and stuff, I

903
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 1: don't know. I went I went down that rabbit hole

904
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 1: a little bit because I googled what the Duchy of

905
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 1: Cromwell was because I was very curious. You know, they

906
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 1: started with the whole Megan and Hairy drama like the

907
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: Duchy and the finances started coming out, and as an

908
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: informed American, I had to google with a lot of

909
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 1: things meant. But yeah, the royal family is has I mean,

910
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 1: they own a lot of land. It helps when you

911
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,879
Speaker 1: owned it for hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands of years.

912
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,840
Speaker 1: I mean talk about you know, real estate investment. That

913
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 1: that's been huge for them. Yeah, buy and hold at

914
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: its finest. I suppose because it diamond hand. The Queen's

915
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 1: definitely got no state taxes. Somehow, I don't get that.

916
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: When you set the laws, you get to do what

917
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 1: you want. That's right, that's it. That's the key. That's

918
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: the key to good investment. Get to set the laws. Victory.

919
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 1: I think that is all the time we have, But

920
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:20,319
Speaker 1: we really really appreciate your insights this week. Um. Great

921
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 1: to catch up with you and I hope we can

922
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 1: have your back some day. Absolutely, it's fun, guys. Thanks

923
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: so much, Yeah, thank you so much. What Goes Up.

924
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 1: We'll be back next week and so then you can

925
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or

926
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. We love it if you

927
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 1: took the time to rate and review the show on

928
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, so more listeners can find us. And you

929
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 1: can find us on Twitter follow me at Reaganonymous. Well,

930
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 1: Donna Hirich is at Bildanna Hirich. You can also follow

931
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts. What Goes Up is produced by

932
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: Stacy Wang. The head of Bloomberg podcast is francesco Leavie.

933
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, See you next time.