WEBVTT - Markets Brace for Rate Cuts and Election Uncertainty 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.160 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.199 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I learned this. 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.920 I sort of stumbled into this. It wasn't a received 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:52.519 wisdom when I was twenty eight or whatever. There are 0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:58.560 exactly two people on the strategy side, fancy academic people 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:02.040 that have never enjoyed the big walking away from them. 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:05.200 And then there's people that migrate from a trading desk, 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:11.200 a rates desk over to strategy and portfolio management. 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:11.840 Who does that? 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:15.800 They're different, they're hard won. You'll learn us at Villanova 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:18.959 and I think Christina, I mean, it's's the real deal 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:21.759 because she's enjoyed having the bid walk away from. 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:22.440 Her bid walk away. 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:25.440 Christina can't many joins and she's a senior portfolio manager 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:29.960 at Invesco. You know what is as a senior portfolio manager? 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:33.520 What does your portfolio look like these days? How is 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:37.679 it allocated? How is this structured? How's your portfolio structure today? 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:39.759 Of course, so thank you guys so much for having 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:42.600 me in. So I work on our Global Debt team, 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.680 and so our universe that we look at is rates, currencies, 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:51.680 ANDFX globally and excuse me, rates, currencies and credit. And 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:54.000 I think when we look at the world right now, 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:56.960 one of the primary drivers were finally at this precipice 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:59.880 of the FED starting their easing cycle. So many others 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.320 central banks have been waiting for their cues from the Fed, 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.120 especially the emerging market central banks that started their easing 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.200 early and now are been kind of waiting. So there's 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:12.480 a big focus on currencies, especially right now, because I 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:14.600 think that's where the big driver is and it's us 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:16.720 central of what's driving it and where are we going 0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:18.960 from here? And I think when we look at rates, 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:22.280 especially in developed markets, it's a little less interesting from 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:24.600 what do we want to own out the curve? Because 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.680 there's not a lot of value of how low rates 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:29.760 still are and how flat and inverted the curves are. 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.080 So I mean, all right, so I could sit you know, 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:35.000 as Tom knows, I'm happy to sit in my two 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:38.320 year treasure getting near four percent. How much credit I 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:40.400 assume you guys are not just doing that. You're taking 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:43.160 some credit risk. Maybe, how do you think about that? 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:45.280 We are so you said you'd be happy to sit 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:46.919 in the front end, and I think that makes sense 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:48.680 when we look at rates, and in a lot of sense, 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:50.680 it makes sense when we look at credit as well. 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:54.640 You can be parked in front end high grade credit 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:57.080 and even emerging market high grade credit in the front end, 0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:59.040 and we think there's some value there. But again out 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.360 the curve, things are a lot richer, and we don't 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:04.800 think that there's a lot of value. Just as we 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:07.120 have this normalization, we need to have our reprice there. 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:10.400 But I'm looking at the US Corporate High Yield Index, 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:13.200 the Bloomberg US Corporate High you In Index. We paid 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:14.520 good money for that index. 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:15.400 Six point nine. 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:16.760 That is nice. 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:19.200 How do you like to think about high yield? 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:21.160 But again, if you think about cash, where you're getting 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:22.320 for your cash earnings? 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:23.200 Too? 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:25.400 It's really about spread. And I think there is this 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:27.840 concept in the market of investors do care about all 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:30.000 in yield, But I think you have to break it 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:32.359 down and look at spreads, and spreads are at historically 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:34.120 tight levels. I mean, we had a little bit of 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:38.320 blowing out with the noise early in August. In August, yeah, 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:42.360 but we're we via. The quickness with which we snapped back, 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:44.800 I think is telling of what is positioning out there. 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:46.480 What do we need to be concerned with? Are you 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:47.400 susceptible to this? 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:51.160 Again to translate that the bid was put in in 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:55.839 non full faith and credit papers snapped right back like equities, yeap? 0:03:56.520 --> 0:04:00.160 Why what? What is the reason for the bid there? 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:04.800 Is it just desperation to capture coupon? You know? FOBOSEI 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:06.120 one oh one? What's the why? 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.040 I think it's a combo of both. I think that 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:11.960 bears when you have just cash cash returns where they 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:15.000 are funds perpetually have money that they need to invest. 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.360 And I think that there's a comfort which is where 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:19.400 we kind of fall down the middle on the economic 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:22.599 outlook that we're not looking for a recession. We think 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.479 that there's the FED has this balance they're going to start. 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:27.640 The question of twenty five or fifty is not about 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:31.080 a recession to us, It's about we've been tight long 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:32.760 enough and we can kind of adjust. 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.000 I mean, two years ago my Essay of the Year 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:40.200 was Lawrence MacDonald, the author writing out just an incredibly 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:44.480 clear dissertation of the wall of money that's out there. 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:49.000 You're in the turret at investco of where guessing where 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:52.440 that money's going to flow? Adjust that now post labor Day? 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.559 Where is the wall of cash going to flow? 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:58.039 So I think September. Every year in September you have 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:03.400 massive amount of corporate supply. Certainly that will be a recipient. 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:06.880 And then I think it really is about this. What 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.159 defines the month of September will be the Fed beginning 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:12.800 their easing cycle. That has been this two year waiting 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:14.479 period of is the Fed going to go? 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:15.159 Are we on the. 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:16.080 Precipice of recession? 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:16.720 Do we have to go? 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:20.000 And I think that allows people to put money back 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:22.560 into the market and say what are we comfortable with? 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:24.039 Where do we want to part? 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:27.440 I mean, good morning Larry McDonald. I mean he hasn't 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:30.760 done anything since that is the year he just checked out. 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:33.240 He's been on the beach. But Paul, to me, the 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:36.159 heart of the matter is is the importance of September. Yeah, 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:36.960 it's a signal. 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:39.520 I know, hopefully we have a smooth month. Christina, how 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:41.000 do you think this Fed's going to proceed here? Do 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:44.720 you think they start this month? And then I don't know, 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:47.880 every meeting, every other meeting fifty basis points, twenty five 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:49.719 basis points. How are you guys on your desk thinking 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:50.160 about that? 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:50.360 So? 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:53.120 I think Friday's pay or report will be really important 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:54.200 to just set the tone. 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:54.520 Again. 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:57.200 I'm in the office Friday, just pointing out everybody. 0:05:57.360 --> 0:05:59.600 And in some sense it is silly that we are 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.640 even at this point for the start of a cycle 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:06.279 that has been years in the making. We're concerned about 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:09.039 a data print that's a few days away. But again, 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:12.200 our view is that we're talking about a soft landing. 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:13.880 And I'd say our base case is still that we're 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.160 going to get more of a mid cycle adjustment from 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:18.800 the FED, rather than that they need to ease to neutral, 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.760 which means you probably if they start with a fifty, 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:24.320 you might get one hundred by year and one hundred 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:28.320 basis points. But I think that that's really the outlook 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:30.719 into twenty five is a lot less clear because you 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:34.480 need election results and what has that adjustment? 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.160 I mean, Christina Campany, this is we don't do anything here. 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.160 All we do is read question. So this is from YouTube. 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:47.440 Please comment on portfolios for individuals separating out risk assets. 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:50.440 I don't have fifty percent of my money and fixed income, 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:54.320 but I don't have one hundred percent inequities. I mean, 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:57.560 it's like sixty forty part of the investo discussion or 0:06:57.600 --> 0:06:58.919 have you come up with new math? 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.360 I think that's still is kind of how we think 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:04.400 about the balance. And I think the difference in this 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.400 day and age where we've returned after the GFSA and 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.840 you've had this extended period of near zero front end rates, 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:15.680 cash as an allocation in that mix for the individual 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:17.720 makes sense to balance. 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.280 Are there sectors in the fixed income space that screen 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:23.320 weal for you guys at a visco these days? 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:26.520 So again, when we look I think when we look 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:31.840 at particular opportunities in the market in rates, it's more 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:35.400 of a curve trade and that readjustment currencies look interesting 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.040 to us because we think in either case, you have 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:42.720 this push and pull of what has buoyed the dollar 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:47.320 and you've had US exceptionalism. But the other side of 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:51.239 it is you have massive funding needs from the government 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:53.240 and all this treasury issues that needs to be funded. 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:56.040 We think that as you embark on this easing cycle, 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:58.440 you could have a period of a week or dollar 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:01.440 and thus there's a lot of currencies that are interesting 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:05.840 to us. And then emerging market fixed income as well. 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:10.560 Local market debt also looks interesting because the FED starts, 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:14.400 these emerging market central banks can continue they're easing cycles 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:15.920 and you have some opportunity there. 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:20.240 One final question, are you managing for coupon or total return? 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:22.800 Total return? It always has to be about total. 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:27.320 Returns to job. Okay, Christina Katman, you thank you so 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:42.080 much for the Invesco joining us right now, very important conversation. 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:47.160 Matt Hornbach joins us right now, global head a macro 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:50.720 strategy at Morgan Stanley. Matt, do you have to aggressively 0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:54.200 rewrite your macro strategy into Q four? 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:58.000 Tom? Thanks for having me on the program. 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:02.640 I don't think we're going to have to aggressively rewrite 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:06.600 the outlook. I mean the risks that we put out 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:11.840 there relative to our baseline forecasts were pretty clear. In 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:17.560 that we did see downside risks to the US Treasury yields, 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:22.640 and so I don't think we'll have to dramatically change 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:26.960 the narrative as those risks are now being realized, but 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:30.960 we probably will have to make some adjustments to our 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:33.800 baseline yield forecast at some point here soon. 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:38.240 With your world class view of Japan earned it, Morgan Stanley, 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:42.080 is it all quiet on the Japanese front? 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:46.440 Well, for now, yes, it seems to be. 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:50.120 But you know, our economists do think the Bank of 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:54.000 Japan will have the data it needs to raise rates. 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.800 Once more, but only once more. 0:09:56.880 --> 0:10:00.200 And I think in order to get in va Ester 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:07.920 is really excited about Japan in twenty twenty five, you're 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:09.959 going to need more than just one more rate hike 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:10.960 from the Bank of Japan. 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:13.520 So for now, we think it's going to be. 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:19.360 Pretty quiet, but it could get interesting, particularly because positioning 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:24.000 in the market visa E. Japan still exists. It's still 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:29.120 a story people want to trade. That means people want 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.920 to see yields in Japan go higher, they want to 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:38.040 see the yen continue to depreciate, and it could get 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:41.560 interesting because those hopes and dreams may come crashing down 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:45.400 if inflation in the country starts to moderate again. 0:10:46.080 --> 0:10:48.199 So, Matt, I'm just you know, I know, you spend 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.880 a lot of time back and forth stationed in Tokyo, 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:54.200 and I remember when Tokyo was the place to be 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:57.480 outside of New York. Why do our investors paying so 0:10:57.559 --> 0:11:02.120 much attention to Japan the last twelve, eighteen, twenty four months, 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:05.120 even Warren Buffett, when for twenty years we could care 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.120 less what happened in Japan. What's changed? 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:12.559 Well, yeah, I mean, Japan is definitely a good place 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.480 to be for your personal life. 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:20.040 But you're right, I think one of the things that 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:24.439 has changed is the inflationary environment in Japan has shifted 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:27.840 pretty dramatically over the past couple of years. You know, 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:31.120 bear in mind that for the better part of the 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:33.880 two and a half or three lost decades that we 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:39.640 had in the country of Japan, that inflation couldn't get 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:43.960 out of bed for anyone. And now we finally have 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.120 inflation that at one point was higher than two percent 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:51.520 on the underlying measures that you can look at, that's 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.720 now come down a bit below two percent. 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.680 But nevertheless, it's really an inflation story. 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:01.319 Is the fad that banker of the world. I mean, 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:03.600 you know, then the global mandate that you've got there 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:06.600 with the terrific economic work of Morgan Stanley, and that 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:09.440 is it a pivot point around your own power in 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.280 the FED? Or is it more diffuse now in terms 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:13.640 of monetary dynamics. 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:19.920 Well, you know, I think certainly today the focus has 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:24.439 really been on the FED, and that's somewhat that's somewhat 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:27.840 a shame because you do have a lot of different 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:30.920 central banks around the world doing different things with their 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:35.920 monetary policy tool kits, and so you know, yes, it's 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.920 true that the ECB is easing, and the Bank of 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.079 Canada is easing, and the Bank of England is easing policy, 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.760 but they're they're kind of going about it all somewhat differently, 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:50.480 and I think that's that's a pretty unique environment, certainly 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:50.800 for the. 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:53.600 Past half a decade or two or. 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:55.839 A full decade. And that's pretty unique that they're all 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:57.680 doing different, slightly different things. 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:02.920 What's the character of this bull market you see? 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:07.720 Well, look, this is at the moment a slightly different 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:12.560 bull market for bonds and we've seen historically mostly because 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:16.920 the yield curve remains very inverted. 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:19.480 This is not common. 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:23.160 This happens less than ten percent of the time, going 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:25.880 back as far as as the data will allow us 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.720 to go back on the yield curve, this is a 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:32.360 pretty unique period of time for the treasury market. And 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.760 so you know, this bull market ultimately is being held 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.719 back to a certain degree by the inversion of the 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:43.920 yield curve. It makes owning treasury security is less attractive 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.079 when the yield curve is is unverted. 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:50.400 Then what's the dynamic of a disinverting yield curve? The 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:54.240 fact is through August we've seen massive twos ten disinversion. 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.480 Right for twos ten's absolutely right, Tom. You know, I 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:03.480 think a lot of investors who have increasingly been going 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:08.880 into money market funds are not really comparing the tenure 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:10.960 yield to the two year yield these days. They're really 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:14.280 comparing the tenure yield to what they can get in 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:19.560 a money market fund. And that yield curve is still 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:21.080 extraordinarily inverted. 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.440 So you're right tooth tens. Yeah, not so much anymore, Matt. 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:26.480 Thanks to the clinic. Matt hornback with a brief there, 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:40.800 Morgan Stanley Global. First of all, after thoughts and orientation 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.680 today school to big Big, I mean you know, these 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.920 are huge, huge moments. Then we got like a whole 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:50.160 bunch of economic data, Thank for Job's day. None of 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:53.000 it matters because then you know, we get to the debate. Yeah, 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:56.720 joining us now surveillance debate correspondent host of The Big Take, 0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.400 David Gurra joins, this orientation matters. 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:02.160 I should say I've been told that there for it. 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.720 The ice cream truck. The ice cream truck is wheeled 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:08.040 up in front of the school. What a con job, David, 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:12.040 I got to ask you about what we witnessed over 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:15.280 the weekend. I don't buy it for a minute. At 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:20.840 the debate, everyone helping Trump, everyone helping Harris is going 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:25.200 to say America doesn't care about foreign policy? Am I 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:25.880 off the mark? 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:28.800 Well, I think that it's something you don't hear a 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:30.960 lot about on the campaign trail traditionally. But what we 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.640 had happen over the weekend is so tragic and heartbreaking 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:37.800 and obviously kickstarted a fresh round of protests in Israel. 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:39.680 It's something that's going to be front and center on 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.080 everyone's mind this week and leading into the debate next week. 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:43.960 So I suspect that they're going to be asked about it. 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:46.920 We've already heard from former President Trump on social media 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:49.400 his take on sort of what led to that moment 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.800 and what would have been different if he had in 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:54.560 the White House. So I think that they'll be asked, 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:56.040 But I think that we keep seeing these things that 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.400 aren't customarily part of campaigns percolaid up foreign policy. I 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:00.800 would say this time around A certainly liaks. 0:16:01.240 --> 0:16:05.360 Does President Trump have a special relationship with mister net Yea. 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.920 They get along very well and they have historically, although 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.320 there was a breach in that relationship at the end 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.800 of Donald Trump's term in office when Benjamin Yah, who 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:18.320 waited to uh did not embrace what Donald Trump thought, 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.080 which is that he won the election. Of course he didn't, 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:23.160 and that soured things. But the two of them have 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:24.920 known each other for a long time and have a 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.760 familiarity with one another, and I think it's safe to 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.760 say that the former president feels like that relationship between 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:31.040 the two of them is stronger than the one that 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.720 has been tested, shall we say, between Netan Yahoo and Biden, 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.560 net Yaho and Harris over these last many months. 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.640 David, are we going to have a debate? When is 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:42.880 it and. 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:45.240 What should we expect debate? Is going to be on 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:48.080 Tuesday of next week in Philadelphia at Independence Hall, and 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.240 obviously it's closely watched. We've heard that from both campaigns. 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:52.920 Of course, there was a lot of fighting over what 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:54.680 it might look like, how it might take place, if 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.120 it might take place. Both were agreed to it, both 0:16:57.160 --> 0:16:59.080 see it as being important. We had a memo from 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.320 the campaign cheer for the Harris Walls campaign over the 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:05.200 weekend in which she acknowledged this is going to be 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:07.040 a really crucial moment for them to try to break 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.040 through to this small sliver of undesided people. I mean, 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:11.560 this memo from this campaign chair was so fascinating to me. 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:14.280 So this is from Geno Mally Dillon, who was head 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:17.159 of the Biden campaign previously, and she had a stunning 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.800 acknowledgement in that memo, which is they see themselves as 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.480 the clear underdogs here, and they also acknowledged the fact 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:24.880 that this is going to be decided by a very 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:27.480 razor thin margin. So any moment like this they see 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.480 as an incredibly important opportunity to try to break through 0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:32.359 and get to that small group of people. 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:37.879 Do we know the is Vice President Harris Is she 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:41.440 a good debater? Not a good debater is the expectation 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.919 that she got up against a very big presidence like 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:46.000 former President Trump. 0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:47.879 She's done it before, so we think back to the 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.560 Vice president's debate the last time around, when she comported 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:53.520 herself very well against Mike Pence, the former vice president 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:55.679 on the debate stage. Of course, she ran for president 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:59.320 herself in twenty nineteen, didn't make it to twenty you know, 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:01.679 but is a former prosecutor, of course, and has a 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:03.840 very prosecutorial style. And I think that's something that came 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:06.159 out and was a really interesting contrast in the one 0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:09.480 interview that she's done in recent days with CNN. She 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:13.200 trying to be the one answering questions, not prosecuting the 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:14.880 argument that she has, so it'll be interesting to see. 0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:17.280 And of course that contrast is something that's so astonishing. 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:19.040 And then, Paul, something that really stood out to me 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.359 from that CNA interview was the submission on Vice President 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:23.880 Harris's part that she's actually never met Donald Trump, never 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.439 been in the same room as him. So that'll be 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.200 a really kind of interesting dynamic to observe and watch 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:30.000 as they take the stage. 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.400 Where are the rules of the debate right now? Like 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:36.120 I thought the last time around was hermetically sealed would 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:37.160 be my sophisticated. 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:40.800 It seems less hermetically sealed than the CNN one in 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:42.760 which we were kind of held. The press was held 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:44.760 in this building five hundred yards away from the room 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.360 in which the debate was taking place. I think we're 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:49.280 still figuring out what the rules are going to be 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:50.640 in terms of who's led into the hall. I don't 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:53.920 think there'll be a boisterous rally type atmosphere. There will 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:55.919 be kind of a pool of reporters and photographers who 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:56.280 are going to be. 0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:57.760 To interrupt each other. 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:00.920 I think that that's still being debated. If you're part 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.840 of the If you but the last army was about 0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:06.119 Mike's and should they have been muted the way in 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:06.679 which they were in the. 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.760 Last Reporters like yourself, what do you do with this debate? 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:11.040 What's your plan of action? 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:11.480 Again? 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:13.480 The Atlanta one was so strange because we were in 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.960 the Georgia Tech Arena, seated around the concourse watching it 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:18.679 on the jumbo tron. That was tough for me. 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:23.639 At the Four Seasons Hotel, you go straight into the 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.760 body of this gorgeous bar. I've never been in the 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:30.600 Atlanta four seasons where there was it somebody, Oh, hi, 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:32.280 how are you doing? Great? Great? Great? 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:35.240 I mean you watched I watched it in the arena 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:37.320 and then in Philadelphia. We'll see, we'll see what it's like. 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:38.560 But I was in this, I was in the room 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:40.960 and then down on the spin floor afterward. I think 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:42.719 that'll be sort of the same trajectory. 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:45.400 And your plans for the big take into September into 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:46.440 Q four, David. 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:49.280 Girl, Yeah, we're really going to be starting to draw Obviously. 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:50.800 We talked about this last week when I was when 0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:52.600 I was filling in for Paul. Labor Day is such 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:55.280 a catalytic moment during a presidential campaign, things really get 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:57.439 up and running. We're going to be focusing a lot 0:19:57.480 --> 0:19:59.399 more on politics going forward here, so we'll definitely do 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:01.960 an episode, at least an episode on that debate, and 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:03.880 we're going to focus much more on the economic policies 0:20:03.880 --> 0:20:05.080 of both candidates going forward. 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:07.600 There are you back from summer? I mean, you know, 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:11.480 I'm back. You know it's great. I'm back. 0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:15.600 Do you have the cooler at the desk across the hall? 0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:17.760 Yeah. 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:19.359 See that's how the kids do it. They bring the 0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:22.880