1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I learned this. 11 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 2: I sort of stumbled into this. It wasn't a received 12 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,519 Speaker 2: wisdom when I was twenty eight or whatever. There are 13 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: exactly two people on the strategy side, fancy academic people 14 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 2: that have never enjoyed the big walking away from them. 15 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: And then there's people that migrate from a trading desk, 16 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: a rates desk over to strategy and portfolio management. 17 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 3: Who does that? 18 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 2: They're different, they're hard won. You'll learn us at Villanova 19 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 2: and I think Christina, I mean, it's's the real deal 20 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 2: because she's enjoyed having the bid walk away from. 21 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 4: Her bid walk away. 22 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 3: Christina can't many joins and she's a senior portfolio manager 23 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 3: at Invesco. You know what is as a senior portfolio manager? 24 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 3: What does your portfolio look like these days? How is 25 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 3: it allocated? How is this structured? How's your portfolio structure today? 26 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 5: Of course, so thank you guys so much for having 27 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 5: me in. So I work on our Global Debt team, 28 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 5: and so our universe that we look at is rates, currencies, 29 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 5: ANDFX globally and excuse me, rates, currencies and credit. And 30 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 5: I think when we look at the world right now, 31 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 5: one of the primary drivers were finally at this precipice 32 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 5: of the FED starting their easing cycle. So many others 33 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 5: central banks have been waiting for their cues from the Fed, 34 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 5: especially the emerging market central banks that started their easing 35 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 5: early and now are been kind of waiting. So there's 36 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 5: a big focus on currencies, especially right now, because I 37 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 5: think that's where the big driver is and it's us 38 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 5: central of what's driving it and where are we going 39 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 5: from here? And I think when we look at rates, 40 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 5: especially in developed markets, it's a little less interesting from 41 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 5: what do we want to own out the curve? Because 42 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 5: there's not a lot of value of how low rates 43 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 5: still are and how flat and inverted the curves are. 44 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 3: So I mean, all right, so I could sit you know, 45 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 3: as Tom knows, I'm happy to sit in my two 46 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 3: year treasure getting near four percent. How much credit I 47 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 3: assume you guys are not just doing that. You're taking 48 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 3: some credit risk. Maybe, how do you think about that? 49 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 5: We are so you said you'd be happy to sit 50 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 5: in the front end, and I think that makes sense 51 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 5: when we look at rates, and in a lot of sense, 52 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 5: it makes sense when we look at credit as well. 53 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 5: You can be parked in front end high grade credit 54 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 5: and even emerging market high grade credit in the front end, 55 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 5: and we think there's some value there. But again out 56 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 5: the curve, things are a lot richer, and we don't 57 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 5: think that there's a lot of value. Just as we 58 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 5: have this normalization, we need to have our reprice there. 59 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 3: But I'm looking at the US Corporate High Yield Index, 60 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg US Corporate High you In Index. We paid 61 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 3: good money for that index. 62 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 4: Six point nine. 63 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 3: That is nice. 64 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 4: How do you like to think about high yield? 65 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 5: But again, if you think about cash, where you're getting 66 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 5: for your cash earnings? 67 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: Too? 68 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 5: It's really about spread. And I think there is this 69 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 5: concept in the market of investors do care about all 70 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 5: in yield, But I think you have to break it 71 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 5: down and look at spreads, and spreads are at historically 72 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 5: tight levels. I mean, we had a little bit of 73 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 5: blowing out with the noise early in August. In August, yeah, 74 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 5: but we're we via. The quickness with which we snapped back, 75 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 5: I think is telling of what is positioning out there. 76 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 5: What do we need to be concerned with? Are you 77 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 5: susceptible to this? 78 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 2: Again to translate that the bid was put in in 79 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:55,839 Speaker 2: non full faith and credit papers snapped right back like equities, yeap? 80 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 2: Why what? What is the reason for the bid there? 81 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: Is it just desperation to capture coupon? You know? FOBOSEI 82 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 2: one oh one? What's the why? 83 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 5: I think it's a combo of both. I think that 84 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 5: bears when you have just cash cash returns where they 85 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 5: are funds perpetually have money that they need to invest. 86 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 5: And I think that there's a comfort which is where 87 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 5: we kind of fall down the middle on the economic 88 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 5: outlook that we're not looking for a recession. We think 89 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 5: that there's the FED has this balance they're going to start. 90 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 5: The question of twenty five or fifty is not about 91 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 5: a recession to us, It's about we've been tight long 92 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 5: enough and we can kind of adjust. 93 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 2: I mean, two years ago my Essay of the Year 94 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: was Lawrence MacDonald, the author writing out just an incredibly 95 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 2: clear dissertation of the wall of money that's out there. 96 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 2: You're in the turret at investco of where guessing where 97 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 2: that money's going to flow? Adjust that now post labor Day? 98 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,559 Speaker 2: Where is the wall of cash going to flow? 99 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 5: So I think September. Every year in September you have 100 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 5: massive amount of corporate supply. Certainly that will be a recipient. 101 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 5: And then I think it really is about this. What 102 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,159 Speaker 5: defines the month of September will be the Fed beginning 103 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 5: their easing cycle. That has been this two year waiting 104 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 5: period of is the Fed going to go? 105 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 3: Are we on the. 106 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 5: Precipice of recession? 107 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 6: Do we have to go? 108 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 5: And I think that allows people to put money back 109 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 5: into the market and say what are we comfortable with? 110 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 5: Where do we want to part? 111 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 2: I mean, good morning Larry McDonald. I mean he hasn't 112 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: done anything since that is the year he just checked out. 113 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 2: He's been on the beach. But Paul, to me, the 114 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,159 Speaker 2: heart of the matter is is the importance of September. Yeah, 115 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 2: it's a signal. 116 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 3: I know, hopefully we have a smooth month. Christina, how 117 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 3: do you think this Fed's going to proceed here? Do 118 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 3: you think they start this month? And then I don't know, 119 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 3: every meeting, every other meeting fifty basis points, twenty five 120 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 3: basis points. How are you guys on your desk thinking 121 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 3: about that? 122 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 2: So? 123 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 5: I think Friday's pay or report will be really important 124 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 5: to just set the tone. 125 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 2: Again. 126 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 3: I'm in the office Friday, just pointing out everybody. 127 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 5: And in some sense it is silly that we are 128 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 5: even at this point for the start of a cycle 129 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 5: that has been years in the making. We're concerned about 130 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 5: a data print that's a few days away. But again, 131 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 5: our view is that we're talking about a soft landing. 132 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 5: And I'd say our base case is still that we're 133 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 5: going to get more of a mid cycle adjustment from 134 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 5: the FED, rather than that they need to ease to neutral, 135 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 5: which means you probably if they start with a fifty, 136 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 5: you might get one hundred by year and one hundred 137 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 5: basis points. But I think that that's really the outlook 138 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 5: into twenty five is a lot less clear because you 139 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 5: need election results and what has that adjustment? 140 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 2: I mean, Christina Campany, this is we don't do anything here. 141 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 2: All we do is read question. So this is from YouTube. 142 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 2: Please comment on portfolios for individuals separating out risk assets. 143 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 2: I don't have fifty percent of my money and fixed income, 144 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 2: but I don't have one hundred percent inequities. I mean, 145 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 2: it's like sixty forty part of the investo discussion or 146 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 2: have you come up with new math? 147 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 5: I think that's still is kind of how we think 148 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 5: about the balance. And I think the difference in this 149 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 5: day and age where we've returned after the GFSA and 150 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 5: you've had this extended period of near zero front end rates, 151 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 5: cash as an allocation in that mix for the individual 152 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 5: makes sense to balance. 153 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 3: Are there sectors in the fixed income space that screen 154 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 3: weal for you guys at a visco these days? 155 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 5: So again, when we look I think when we look 156 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 5: at particular opportunities in the market in rates, it's more 157 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 5: of a curve trade and that readjustment currencies look interesting 158 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 5: to us because we think in either case, you have 159 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 5: this push and pull of what has buoyed the dollar 160 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 5: and you've had US exceptionalism. But the other side of 161 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:51,239 Speaker 5: it is you have massive funding needs from the government 162 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 5: and all this treasury issues that needs to be funded. 163 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 5: We think that as you embark on this easing cycle, 164 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 5: you could have a period of a week or dollar 165 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 5: and thus there's a lot of currencies that are interesting 166 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 5: to us. And then emerging market fixed income as well. 167 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 5: Local market debt also looks interesting because the FED starts, 168 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 5: these emerging market central banks can continue they're easing cycles 169 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 5: and you have some opportunity there. 170 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 2: One final question, are you managing for coupon or total return? 171 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 5: Total return? It always has to be about total. 172 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 2: Returns to job. Okay, Christina Katman, you thank you so 173 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 2: much for the Invesco joining us right now, very important conversation. 174 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 2: Matt Hornbach joins us right now, global head a macro 175 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 2: strategy at Morgan Stanley. Matt, do you have to aggressively 176 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 2: rewrite your macro strategy into Q four? 177 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 4: Tom? Thanks for having me on the program. 178 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 7: I don't think we're going to have to aggressively rewrite 179 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 7: the outlook. I mean the risks that we put out 180 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 7: there relative to our baseline forecasts were pretty clear. In 181 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 7: that we did see downside risks to the US Treasury yields, 182 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 7: and so I don't think we'll have to dramatically change 183 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 7: the narrative as those risks are now being realized, but 184 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 7: we probably will have to make some adjustments to our 185 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 7: baseline yield forecast at some point here soon. 186 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 2: With your world class view of Japan earned it, Morgan Stanley, 187 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 2: is it all quiet on the Japanese front? 188 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 4: Well, for now, yes, it seems to be. 189 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 7: But you know, our economists do think the Bank of 190 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 7: Japan will have the data it needs to raise rates. 191 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 4: Once more, but only once more. 192 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 7: And I think in order to get in va Ester 193 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 7: is really excited about Japan in twenty twenty five, you're 194 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 7: going to need more than just one more rate hike 195 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 7: from the Bank of Japan. 196 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 4: So for now, we think it's going to be. 197 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 7: Pretty quiet, but it could get interesting, particularly because positioning 198 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 7: in the market visa E. Japan still exists. It's still 199 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 7: a story people want to trade. That means people want 200 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 7: to see yields in Japan go higher, they want to 201 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 7: see the yen continue to depreciate, and it could get 202 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 7: interesting because those hopes and dreams may come crashing down 203 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 7: if inflation in the country starts to moderate again. 204 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 3: So, Matt, I'm just you know, I know, you spend 205 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 3: a lot of time back and forth stationed in Tokyo, 206 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 3: and I remember when Tokyo was the place to be 207 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 3: outside of New York. Why do our investors paying so 208 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 3: much attention to Japan the last twelve, eighteen, twenty four months, 209 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 3: even Warren Buffett, when for twenty years we could care 210 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 3: less what happened in Japan. What's changed? 211 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I mean, Japan is definitely a good place 212 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 4: to be for your personal life. 213 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 7: But you're right, I think one of the things that 214 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 7: has changed is the inflationary environment in Japan has shifted 215 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 7: pretty dramatically over the past couple of years. You know, 216 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 7: bear in mind that for the better part of the 217 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 7: two and a half or three lost decades that we 218 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 7: had in the country of Japan, that inflation couldn't get 219 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 7: out of bed for anyone. And now we finally have 220 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 7: inflation that at one point was higher than two percent 221 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 7: on the underlying measures that you can look at, that's 222 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 7: now come down a bit below two percent. 223 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 4: But nevertheless, it's really an inflation story. 224 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,319 Speaker 2: Is the fad that banker of the world. I mean, 225 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 2: you know, then the global mandate that you've got there 226 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 2: with the terrific economic work of Morgan Stanley, and that 227 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 2: is it a pivot point around your own power in 228 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 2: the FED? Or is it more diffuse now in terms 229 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 2: of monetary dynamics. 230 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 7: Well, you know, I think certainly today the focus has 231 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 7: really been on the FED, and that's somewhat that's somewhat 232 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 7: a shame because you do have a lot of different 233 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 7: central banks around the world doing different things with their 234 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 7: monetary policy tool kits, and so you know, yes, it's 235 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 7: true that the ECB is easing, and the Bank of 236 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,079 Speaker 7: Canada is easing, and the Bank of England is easing policy, 237 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 7: but they're they're kind of going about it all somewhat differently, 238 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 7: and I think that's that's a pretty unique environment, certainly 239 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 7: for the. 240 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 4: Past half a decade or two or. 241 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:55,839 Speaker 7: A full decade. And that's pretty unique that they're all 242 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 7: doing different, slightly different things. 243 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 2: What's the character of this bull market you see? 244 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 7: Well, look, this is at the moment a slightly different 245 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 7: bull market for bonds and we've seen historically mostly because 246 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 7: the yield curve remains very inverted. 247 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 4: This is not common. 248 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 7: This happens less than ten percent of the time, going 249 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 7: back as far as as the data will allow us 250 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 7: to go back on the yield curve, this is a 251 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 7: pretty unique period of time for the treasury market. And 252 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 7: so you know, this bull market ultimately is being held 253 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,719 Speaker 7: back to a certain degree by the inversion of the 254 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 7: yield curve. It makes owning treasury security is less attractive 255 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 7: when the yield curve is is unverted. 256 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 2: Then what's the dynamic of a disinverting yield curve? The 257 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 2: fact is through August we've seen massive twos ten disinversion. 258 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 7: Right for twos ten's absolutely right, Tom. You know, I 259 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 7: think a lot of investors who have increasingly been going 260 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 7: into money market funds are not really comparing the tenure 261 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 7: yield to the two year yield these days. They're really 262 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 7: comparing the tenure yield to what they can get in 263 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 7: a money market fund. And that yield curve is still 264 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 7: extraordinarily inverted. 265 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: So you're right tooth tens. Yeah, not so much anymore, Matt. 266 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 2: Thanks to the clinic. Matt hornback with a brief there, 267 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley Global. First of all, after thoughts and orientation 268 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 2: today school to big Big, I mean you know, these 269 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 2: are huge, huge moments. Then we got like a whole 270 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 2: bunch of economic data, Thank for Job's day. None of 271 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: it matters because then you know, we get to the debate. Yeah, 272 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 2: joining us now surveillance debate correspondent host of The Big Take, 273 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 2: David Gurra joins, this orientation matters. 274 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 1: I should say I've been told that there for it. 275 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 2: The ice cream truck. The ice cream truck is wheeled 276 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: up in front of the school. What a con job, David, 277 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 2: I got to ask you about what we witnessed over 278 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 2: the weekend. I don't buy it for a minute. At 279 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 2: the debate, everyone helping Trump, everyone helping Harris is going 280 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 2: to say America doesn't care about foreign policy? Am I 281 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 2: off the mark? 282 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: Well, I think that it's something you don't hear a 283 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 1: lot about on the campaign trail traditionally. But what we 284 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: had happen over the weekend is so tragic and heartbreaking 285 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: and obviously kickstarted a fresh round of protests in Israel. 286 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: It's something that's going to be front and center on 287 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: everyone's mind this week and leading into the debate next week. 288 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: So I suspect that they're going to be asked about it. 289 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: We've already heard from former President Trump on social media 290 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: his take on sort of what led to that moment 291 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: and what would have been different if he had in 292 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: the White House. So I think that they'll be asked, 293 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: But I think that we keep seeing these things that 294 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: aren't customarily part of campaigns percolaid up foreign policy. I 295 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: would say this time around A certainly liaks. 296 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: Does President Trump have a special relationship with mister net Yea. 297 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: They get along very well and they have historically, although 298 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 1: there was a breach in that relationship at the end 299 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump's term in office when Benjamin Yah, who 300 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 1: waited to uh did not embrace what Donald Trump thought, 301 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: which is that he won the election. Of course he didn't, 302 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: and that soured things. But the two of them have 303 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: known each other for a long time and have a 304 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 1: familiarity with one another, and I think it's safe to 305 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: say that the former president feels like that relationship between 306 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: the two of them is stronger than the one that 307 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: has been tested, shall we say, between Netan Yahoo and Biden, 308 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: net Yaho and Harris over these last many months. 309 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 3: David, are we going to have a debate? When is 310 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 3: it and. 311 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: What should we expect debate? Is going to be on 312 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: Tuesday of next week in Philadelphia at Independence Hall, and 313 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: obviously it's closely watched. We've heard that from both campaigns. 314 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: Of course, there was a lot of fighting over what 315 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: it might look like, how it might take place, if 316 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: it might take place. Both were agreed to it, both 317 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 1: see it as being important. We had a memo from 318 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: the campaign cheer for the Harris Walls campaign over the 319 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: weekend in which she acknowledged this is going to be 320 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 1: a really crucial moment for them to try to break 321 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: through to this small sliver of undesided people. I mean, 322 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: this memo from this campaign chair was so fascinating to me. 323 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: So this is from Geno Mally Dillon, who was head 324 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 1: of the Biden campaign previously, and she had a stunning 325 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: acknowledgement in that memo, which is they see themselves as 326 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 1: the clear underdogs here, and they also acknowledged the fact 327 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 1: that this is going to be decided by a very 328 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: razor thin margin. So any moment like this they see 329 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: as an incredibly important opportunity to try to break through 330 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 1: and get to that small group of people. 331 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 3: Do we know the is Vice President Harris Is she 332 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 3: a good debater? Not a good debater is the expectation 333 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 3: that she got up against a very big presidence like 334 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 3: former President Trump. 335 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 1: She's done it before, so we think back to the 336 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: Vice president's debate the last time around, when she comported 337 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 1: herself very well against Mike Pence, the former vice president 338 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,679 Speaker 1: on the debate stage. Of course, she ran for president 339 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: herself in twenty nineteen, didn't make it to twenty you know, 340 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 1: but is a former prosecutor, of course, and has a 341 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: very prosecutorial style. And I think that's something that came 342 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 1: out and was a really interesting contrast in the one 343 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: interview that she's done in recent days with CNN. She 344 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: trying to be the one answering questions, not prosecuting the 345 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 1: argument that she has, so it'll be interesting to see. 346 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: And of course that contrast is something that's so astonishing. 347 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: And then, Paul, something that really stood out to me 348 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 1: from that CNA interview was the submission on Vice President 349 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 1: Harris's part that she's actually never met Donald Trump, never 350 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 1: been in the same room as him. So that'll be 351 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 1: a really kind of interesting dynamic to observe and watch 352 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: as they take the stage. 353 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 2: Where are the rules of the debate right now? Like 354 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 2: I thought the last time around was hermetically sealed would 355 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:37,160 Speaker 2: be my sophisticated. 356 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: It seems less hermetically sealed than the CNN one in 357 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: which we were kind of held. The press was held 358 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: in this building five hundred yards away from the room 359 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 1: in which the debate was taking place. I think we're 360 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: still figuring out what the rules are going to be 361 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:50,640 Speaker 1: in terms of who's led into the hall. I don't 362 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 1: think there'll be a boisterous rally type atmosphere. There will 363 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 1: be kind of a pool of reporters and photographers who 364 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: are going to be. 365 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 2: To interrupt each other. 366 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: I think that that's still being debated. If you're part 367 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: of the If you but the last army was about 368 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 1: Mike's and should they have been muted the way in 369 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 1: which they were in the. 370 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 3: Last Reporters like yourself, what do you do with this debate? 371 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 3: What's your plan of action? 372 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 2: Again? 373 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 1: The Atlanta one was so strange because we were in 374 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 1: the Georgia Tech Arena, seated around the concourse watching it 375 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,679 Speaker 1: on the jumbo tron. That was tough for me. 376 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 2: At the Four Seasons Hotel, you go straight into the 377 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 2: body of this gorgeous bar. I've never been in the 378 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 2: Atlanta four seasons where there was it somebody, Oh, hi, 379 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 2: how are you doing? Great? Great? Great? 380 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 1: I mean you watched I watched it in the arena 381 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: and then in Philadelphia. We'll see, we'll see what it's like. 382 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: But I was in this, I was in the room 383 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: and then down on the spin floor afterward. I think 384 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:42,719 Speaker 1: that'll be sort of the same trajectory. 385 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 2: And your plans for the big take into September into 386 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 2: Q four, David. 387 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: Girl, Yeah, we're really going to be starting to draw Obviously. 388 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 1: We talked about this last week when I was when 389 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: I was filling in for Paul. Labor Day is such 390 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: a catalytic moment during a presidential campaign, things really get 391 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,439 Speaker 1: up and running. We're going to be focusing a lot 392 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: more on politics going forward here, so we'll definitely do 393 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: an episode, at least an episode on that debate, and 394 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,880 Speaker 1: we're going to focus much more on the economic policies 395 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: of both candidates going forward. 396 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 2: There are you back from summer? I mean, you know, 397 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 2: I'm back. You know it's great. I'm back. 398 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: Do you have the cooler at the desk across the hall? 399 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 2: Yeah. 400 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 3: See that's how the kids do it. They bring the 401 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 3: lobsters back from Maine, and yeah, you know it's great. 402 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 2: The girl House orientation is great. 403 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 1: It's a staggered story on every kid in a different 404 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: school doesn't start till Thursday. Yeah, I'm going to Texas. 405 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 1: Can I make another shameless plug? Yes, going to Texas 406 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: this weekend for the Text Tribune Festival. I'm gonna interview 407 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 1: the Treasury Secretary on stage in Austin. So I'll have 408 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: some This will be Janet yelling, yelling for an hour 409 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 1: on stage in Austin. I'll have some tape of that. 410 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: Maybe I can come in Monday a little bit where 411 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 1: it's going to be Austin, Austin, Texas. 412 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 2: Are you just going for some you know, I'll. 413 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 1: Get some brisket now, sure, there'll be some brisket my Southwest, 414 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: not southes. Now, that would be we would get out 415 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: the headline of that way headline Texas Tribute Festive. 416 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 2: I think. So it's nice to see you know, nice I. 417 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 3: Mean coming in, I mean are you tomorrow maybe? 418 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 2: Yes, she will be here tomorrow. 419 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: John answers unequivocally yes. 420 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 2: Joining us. 421 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 8: We need more seats in here. 422 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 2: Surveillance Congestion correspondent for those of your across the nation 423 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 2: in Boston and ninety pricing not here. I mean, John Tucker, 424 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 2: come on, it's late related. We're supposed to be deep 425 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 2: into congestion pricing. Is it dead? 426 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 8: Well, let's put it this way. It's on hold. It 427 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 8: could be on hold temporarily, it could be on hold permanently. 428 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 8: But I also said, say the Governor Hokol who put 429 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 8: it on hold, either temporarily or permanently. She's taking a 430 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 8: lot of flak for any number of things. Democrat. 431 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 3: That's a lot of money that was gonna be. 432 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 8: It's over billion dollars a year in lost revenue. 433 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 2: Have they cut different projects. 434 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 1: In Paris of all these stations right, and I think 435 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 1: a lot of subway station repairs have been on it. 436 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 8: That's a lot of You're a ferryman. 437 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 1: I know you take the ferry, so I will do. 438 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 8: I can't to repair those subway staates. 439 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 2: David Gurr the big take, David Gura at the debate. 440 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 2: Look for college there, John Tucker. Finally, in the crack 441 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:25,679 Speaker 2: of nine fifty five, you daily look, Well, it's the 442 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo hour. Where in God's name have you been? Tucker? 443 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:34,679 Speaker 2: The shadow of Lisa Matteo and doing the newspapers. 444 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 6: Go oh, all right, the workforce is changing this year. Okay, 445 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 6: how gen Z workers expected to out and our baby 446 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 6: boomers in the US workforce? Why is that an issue? 447 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 6: Because the bosses don't know how to work with them? 448 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 6: So gen Z born between nineteen ninety seven twenty twelve, 449 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 6: just to give you that idea for those out there, 450 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 6: So a lot of them enter the workforce remotely, so 451 00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 6: they didn't learn those workplace norms, all those communications. I 452 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 6: So now the Wall Street Journal is saying that companies 453 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 6: are doing things like mentorships trying to help them. They're 454 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 6: giving them guidance how to communicate. They're even offering on 455 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 6: site therapists to talk with them and help them through 456 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 6: this time as they start to go back to the therapist. 457 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 6: On site therapists who for these gen Z workers who 458 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 6: are now going to be more outnumber the baby boomers 459 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 6: in the workforce. 460 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 2: How old is gen Z Roughly? 461 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 4: I can't keep them straight. 462 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 6: Born between nineteen ninety seven and twenty twelve. 463 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 2: So it's like a summer. 464 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,640 Speaker 4: It's younger than the millennials. Yeah. 465 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 3: See my first boss on the Pine Webber trading desk, 466 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 3: in nineteen eighty six, just smack me on the head 467 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 3: every morning at nine twenty nine, said don't lose money today. 468 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 7: That was it. 469 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 5: I did not. 470 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, I didn't have a therapist. 471 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 2: But okay, am I deficient? And that I have zero sympathy? 472 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 4: Like zero, You're not alone. 473 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 6: I'll just put it that way. 474 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 3: Well, we have to adapt, I would say, as managers. 475 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,679 Speaker 6: Shit, if they're going to outnumber the baby members, this 476 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 6: is going to be your journals. So that's what they're saying, 477 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 6: you have to dapt because they want more meaning, more mentorship, 478 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,360 Speaker 6: they want a sense of purpose in their workday. 479 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 4: Okay, my purpose was I had a P and L. 480 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 3: I had a P and L on my computer screen 481 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 3: in my trading desk, and if I was positive, that 482 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 3: was a good day. Was negative is a bad day. 483 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 2: Can you see mateo in the kitchen now when one 484 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 2: of the gen Z your studying throwing a pan, she's 485 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:31,959 Speaker 2: taking the Revere skillets shut up. 486 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 6: Next, all right, we go from gen Z to jen Alpha. 487 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,679 Speaker 6: They're even younger. So that's fourteen on nnder. Okay, so 488 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:44,360 Speaker 6: the gens the Alpha, they are into decluttering. They care 489 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 6: more about the environment, but they also like to spend. 490 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 6: So this is from Business Insider. Yes, so they're more 491 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 6: selective though about their spending. So what they spend on, 492 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 6: for example, I notice it the Sephora spending. I notice that, Yes, 493 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 6: the younger general is spending a lot more on that, 494 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:06,920 Speaker 6: so well their parents' money. They're also here's something. They're 495 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 6: heading to the mall more often, so they like in 496 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,159 Speaker 6: store purchasing rather than the online. So back in the 497 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,360 Speaker 6: day when we I used to head to the mall, 498 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 6: that was a thing. We kind of lost that. But 499 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 6: now they're saying, with Jen Alpha, it's starting to come back, 500 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 6: Jen Alpha. 501 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've heard that. All I know is during a pandemic, Tom, 502 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,359 Speaker 3: I mean when the whole world was shut down, the 503 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 3: sept door across the street on Lexington Avenue packed. 504 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 2: Yes, but I would suggest we need a seamless free 505 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 2: door dash free September. 506 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 6: Yes, can we institute I have I've removed the door 507 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:42,360 Speaker 6: dash app. 508 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 2: I'm sitting at home with a beverage in my hands, screaming, 509 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:51,160 Speaker 2: mister Sweeney cut off his children and you will be two. 510 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 4: Set the example. 511 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 6: Uh, this next story is from Bloomberg screen Time. Really 512 00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 6: good because you're talking about media and gi struggling with 513 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 6: how to make money from the streaming live sports, ESPN 514 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 6: held this meeting. They brought reporters in, so they started 515 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,640 Speaker 6: talking about what they're doing. They're focusing on streaming fantasy 516 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 6: sports and gambling. So they talked about a couple of things. 517 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 6: They have this thing called Flagship, they kind of nicknamed it. 518 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,959 Speaker 6: This it's this new service. It's going to integrate ESPN 519 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 6: fantasy betting platforms on schedules to longs around this time 520 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 6: last next year. No word on how much good it's 521 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 6: going to charge. And then Disney, you know about the 522 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 6: whole thing with venue, the forty three dollars a month thing. 523 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 6: That's kind of still we're going through a legal list. 524 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 3: I think, I mean, the courts kind of shut it 525 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 3: down and it's. 526 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 2: Real and now's the time, this weekend. 527 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 6: Exactly next Yeah, so that's what is it they're saying 528 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 6: on the sports betting. And finally this was in the Telegraph. 529 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:51,080 Speaker 6: The Titanic deteriorating one hundred and twelve years after its sink. 530 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,400 Speaker 6: You had these underwater robots. They took images of the wreck, 531 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,440 Speaker 6: the railing of the bow the Titanic, you know, popular 532 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 6: in the movie. Right, that's where Nardocaprio Cape Winslet had 533 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 6: their first kiss. It's now at the bottom of the sea. 534 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 6: So it's starting to break. 535 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 2: It fell off of the boat. 536 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 6: It fell off of the boat. It's at the bottom. 537 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 6: That's a huge part of it. And so they're starting 538 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,199 Speaker 6: to see, like the metal structure is starting to be 539 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 6: eaten away. So, I mean, after one hundred and twelve years, 540 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 6: it's starting to show its age. 541 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 3: I guess. 542 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 2: Wow. 543 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:22,719 Speaker 4: I mean, I mean spinning. 544 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 3: I mean nineteen twelve. April fifteenth, nineteen twelve is when 545 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:28,880 Speaker 3: the Titanic went down. 546 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 7: Wow. 547 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:34,199 Speaker 2: There is a small, lovely little park up Broadway almost 548 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 2: up to Columbia, just a little, tiny, beautifully for the 549 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 2: City of New York Landscape Park, and it's in honor 550 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 2: of I believe it was the couple in the movie 551 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 2: that the Asters or whatever, the older couple, And it's 552 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 2: just very serene and you can see the whole city 553 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 2: was shaken by it. 554 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean yeah, you think. 555 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 2: Of that back then exactly, I mean the movie nineteen 556 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 2: ninety seven. Can you believe that? Yeah? No, are we talking? 557 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 2: We're talking like thirty five what every years? Twenty five years? 558 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 2: I mean there it is, and of course it's Seleek. 559 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 2: Selene killed it. Highlight of the summer Celine Dion at 560 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,159 Speaker 2: the Paris Olympics. 561 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean she nailed it. 562 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 2: She did. I mean there was all that controversy and 563 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 2: all that, and Selene was rock solid. This is the 564 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 565 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 566 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 567 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,880 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 568 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 569 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 570 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 571 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.