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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host today Brendan Glasheen, joined by Sean Zarlo and

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward. That means it's time for the UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 1: We're breaking down UFC Vegas seventy six this weekend from

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Speaker 1: the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas. Twelve fights on

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Speaker 1: the card, five main seven prelimbs, all the coverage on

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Speaker 1: the ESPN family of networks. If you are new to

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Speaker 1: the program, we dive into underdogs props, also the fight

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Speaker 1: of the night that Shawn and Billy have target, and

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Speaker 1: we also dive into some best bets before we go. First,

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Speaker 1: we start with the main event. We have Sean Strickland

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Speaker 1: the favorite minus one sixty four, Abos smagamdoff at plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty eight. He is the underdog in this particular fight.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to Billy Ward's luck ratings as well and

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Speaker 1: apply as needed. Zarillo your outlook of the fight and

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Speaker 1: how you would.

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Speaker 3: Like to bet it. Yeah, it was a tough guy

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Speaker 3: to judge because he is nineteen seconds of UFC fight

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Speaker 3: time nineteen seconds of cage time in the past three years,

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Speaker 3: so it's tough to say whether he's made improvements to

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Speaker 3: his game improved his grappling. We have a pretty good

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Speaker 3: read of what Sean Strickland is and we can judge

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Speaker 3: the fight based off of what we know about Sean Strickland.

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Speaker 3: Very sharp jab good striker, puts out good volume, but

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Speaker 3: doesn't hit particularly hard. And his fight with Jerry Kennedyer,

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Speaker 3: which was very close on the scorecards, he likely lost

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Speaker 3: due to damage optics. And Strickland is a former welterweight

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Speaker 3: moved up to me wait because he shredded his knee

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Speaker 3: and a motorcycle accident, can't really cut weight as well anymore,

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Speaker 3: and he spends most of his time sparring, and he

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Speaker 3: kind of fights like a guy who spends most of

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Speaker 3: his time sparring. It is a lot of sparring based

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Speaker 3: action in his fights. You don't see him mix in

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Speaker 3: a ton of grappling. I actually do think he has

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Speaker 3: the grappling upside in this fight, and I think that

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Speaker 3: justifies his potential favoritism. I could see him getting some

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Speaker 3: top time, particularly down the stretcher of the final ten

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Speaker 3: minutes of the fight. His cardio was proven over twenty

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Speaker 3: five minutes. He's been in multiple main events, his durability

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Speaker 3: is proven, and his takedown defense is proven. He's very

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Speaker 3: difficult to grapple. The problem is he tends to fight

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Speaker 3: to the level of his opponent, and no matter who

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Speaker 3: he's fighting, it tends to be closer to a fifty

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Speaker 3: to fifty fight. Even his fight I think was Jack Marshman,

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Speaker 3: he thought huge favorite. He kind of slugged it out

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Speaker 3: in the middle of the cage and made it a

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Speaker 3: high variance fight with a lot of high variance exchanges.

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Speaker 3: And even though he's very durable, he has been subsequently

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Speaker 3: knocked out by Alex Berreira. Know, anybody can get knocked

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Speaker 3: out in a cage fight, So Strickland not going to

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Speaker 3: do things that make you super comfortable betting him. Is

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Speaker 3: a minus one sixty five favorite. Even if he has

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Speaker 3: potential wrestling advantage, he might not pursue it. He's just

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Speaker 3: going to try to jab up his opponent out volume

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Speaker 3: over the course of twenty five minutes. And given that

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Speaker 3: potential cardio advantage over the final ten minutes, on top

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Speaker 3: of the grappling upside. I think you can justify his favoritism.

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Speaker 3: I would look for more valuable ways to play him, though,

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Speaker 3: maybe going at the cardio angle. Betting Strickland to win

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Speaker 3: in round three at fourteen hundred, round four, sixteen hundred,

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Speaker 3: round five, twenty to one. You know, you sprinkle all

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Speaker 3: three of those and hope he gets a stoppage in

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Speaker 3: rounds three or four or five. Kind of structure it,

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Speaker 3: you know, a tenth unit each or what have you,

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Speaker 3: or a same game parlay with Strickland in the over

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Speaker 3: one and a half rounds. I think as the final

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Speaker 3: or as the fight ticks on, it should eventually lend

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Speaker 3: itself more towards his winning minutes and taking over on

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Speaker 3: you know, class and strike the schedule that he's had

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Speaker 3: in the past. So yeah, tough to read. Give me

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Speaker 3: the fact that Davis has not had much gage time

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Speaker 3: in three years. But Strickland has established himself as a

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Speaker 3: pretty comfortable top five minute eight and he's got to

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Speaker 3: get good while round at skill set, and you know,

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Speaker 3: I think you could justify the favoritism. I just I'm

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Speaker 3: not a guy you want to lay. We talked about

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Speaker 3: Jamal Emers last week a guy that I want to

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Speaker 3: bet as an underdog, not a favorite. That kind of

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Speaker 3: applies to Strickland too, just because the fight IQ issues

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Speaker 3: are going to get him in trouble or going to

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Speaker 3: push his fights closer to fifty to fifty just given

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Speaker 3: the way he fights.

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Speaker 1: Billy, I'm reading your luck ratings. You think the line

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Speaker 1: is fairly valued. How would you like to approach betting

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Speaker 1: the main event?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, and Sean talked about why this is

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Speaker 4: a pretty good line, why we can understand the favoritism

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Speaker 4: on Strickland. I definitely don't expect him to grapple. He

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Speaker 4: didn't grapple at all against Pehea, who's arguably both the

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Speaker 4: best striker and worst grappler in the division, and even

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Speaker 4: then he didn't grapple. So I don't know what situation

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Speaker 4: if you're Sean strickting, like what more would you need

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Speaker 4: to actually try to wrestle? Ever, despite being really good

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Speaker 4: at it by all accounts, So you know, don't really

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Speaker 4: expect that, But you know, Sean talked about it a

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Speaker 4: little bit. He doesn't provide a lot of power at middleweight.

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Speaker 4: I believe he hasn't finished any of his middleweight fights

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Speaker 4: he has one over Brendan Allen, but it was a catchweight,

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Speaker 4: So I'm looking to the decision. No bets or finish

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Speaker 4: only props. You can get Maga Metoff at minus one

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Speaker 4: twenty six on those props For people aren't familiar. The

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Speaker 4: way that works is if it goes to a decision,

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Speaker 4: your bet as a void, doesn't matter whose wins. If

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Speaker 4: there's a finish, then the bet has action. Obviously you

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Speaker 4: need Maga met Off going into this one. If you

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Speaker 4: told me this one ended a knockout, especially early, for

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Speaker 4: all the reasons Sean talked about, I would be very

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Speaker 4: very confident that Maga Medoff was the one who picked

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Speaker 4: it up. Came out guns blazing in his first UFC fight,

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Speaker 4: a ton of finishes, looks to have a lot of power,

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Speaker 4: kind of wild. I really don't like him in a

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Speaker 4: five round fight. So you know, it could be a

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Speaker 4: possible live betting opportunity on Strickland for the reason Zerrilla

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Speaker 4: talked about. But other than that, yeah, you know, not

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Speaker 4: going to lay the juice. He's on Strickland and happy

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Speaker 4: to pay a little bit extra just to remove the

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Speaker 4: decision and hope Babo's can survive down the stretch in

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Speaker 4: round four and.

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Speaker 1: Five favorite underdog for the coming weekend. You're both on

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Speaker 1: the same page here a consensus underdog. It feels like

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Speaker 1: we're doing a baseball podcast, Sorillo.

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Speaker 3: Who is it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Ben want Satani at plus two sixty going against the

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Speaker 3: older of the two Bombfien brothers, the Bombfien brother who,

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Speaker 3: in my opinion, has less upside been submitted multiple times.

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Speaker 3: Satany is the bigger man two inches taller, three inch

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Speaker 3: each advantage, and he hits significantly harder. I think Bombfeme

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Speaker 3: has the speed advantage, probably the technical advantage, and is

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Speaker 3: going to look good when they're standing at you distant

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Speaker 3: striking range. But Stani is going to consistently press forward,

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Speaker 3: force this to be a brawl, make it ugly, and

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Speaker 3: I think the small cage in the apex in particular

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Speaker 3: is really going to help him. It just Bonfiem is

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Speaker 3: a guy who, if you give him space on the outside,

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Speaker 3: kimberly carve you up with his speed. But if you

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Speaker 3: put him in a smaller cage against the guy who's

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Speaker 3: going to close that distance, make things dirty and make

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Speaker 3: things a brawl, that is definitely to his disadvantage. On

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Speaker 3: top of the fact that Santini is probably the stronger

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Speaker 3: man and likely in my opinion, the better wrestler. We

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Speaker 3: haven't really seen bomb Feme a ton off of his back,

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Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be a particularly dynamic submission artist, and

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Speaker 3: we have, as I said, seen him submitted in the past.

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Speaker 3: But also on top of the factors that Santany is

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Speaker 3: the grappling upside, Santany hits harder, right, all things that

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Speaker 3: I want to see when I'm betting an underdog. I

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Speaker 3: think also just looking at the betting market and the

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Speaker 3: price over correction here on Bombfime, who was a pick'am

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Speaker 3: price against Terence McKinney, who is also a very high

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Speaker 3: variance fighter. Now he's minus three hundred here against Benoa Santani,

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Speaker 3: who I think is a significantly better chance of beating

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Speaker 3: him than Terence McKinney did, especially over the course of

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Speaker 3: a fifteen minute fights. So ben Wa Santini for me

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Speaker 3: plus six two sixty. I know Billy's on him as well.

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Speaker 3: I'm curious to hear if Billy arrived at that reasoning

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Speaker 3: for any other points other than the ones I made.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, massive price over correction and happy to be

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Speaker 3: at any fighter who is the grappling upside of place money.

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Speaker 1: All right, Billy, what do you got anything to add?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So I had this one in our sheet before

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Speaker 4: I realized Sean was betting it too, and I was

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Speaker 4: really excited that he was on it because I thought

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Speaker 4: I was missing something when I looked at the line, like,

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Speaker 4: I don't know if it was a typo or there's

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Speaker 4: some horrible injury on BSD that I didn't realize because

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Speaker 4: a year or two ago we were thinking just as

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Speaker 4: highly of BSD as we were bomb Theme. He lost

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Speaker 4: his UFC debut, wasn't a great fight, but I'm kind

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Speaker 4: of willing to overlook that to an extent two stoppages

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Speaker 4: since then much bigger guy. That was one of the

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Speaker 4: notes I put in mind. I think Bomb them should

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Speaker 4: probably go down to featherweight, at least based on his frame.

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Speaker 4: I think his brother's a featherweight, which maybe explains why

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Speaker 4: they don't want to compete in the same weight class,

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Speaker 4: but not really big enough frame wise for lightweight. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: he knocked out Terrence McKinney, but McKinney's wild man, Like

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Speaker 4: anyone can catch McKinney once he empties his gas tank,

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Speaker 4: so that wasn't enough for me to say you should

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Speaker 4: be minus three hundred. I think Bombfeme should be the

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Speaker 4: favorite here, but I'd make it like minus one fifty

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Speaker 4: maybe minus two hundred Bomb Team at worst. So getting

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Speaker 4: the plus two fifty plus two sixty ONBSD. Very glad

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Speaker 4: someone else was on it because I thought I was

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Speaker 4: just missing something.

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Speaker 3: I want to point out the santannyview up aweight class

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Speaker 3: at walterweight against Elizi's a Lescido Santos, who's an absolute killer.

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Speaker 3: Took that fight on short notice, probably could have been

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Speaker 3: stopped like ten different times. It was one of the

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Speaker 3: worst referee jobs in UFC history. But it goes to

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Speaker 3: show you Santany, who was never knocked down in that fight,

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Speaker 3: by the way, is insanely durable. This guy I believe

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Speaker 3: was French Special Forces. He's an actual killer. We can't

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Speaker 3: say that about many guys who get in the UFC octagon,

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Speaker 3: but ben Jia Santany is one of the most dangerous

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Speaker 3: guys who I think has ever entered the cage. He's

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Speaker 3: a scary man. Both fighters twenty seven, not like there's

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Speaker 3: an age differential here. Both potentially improving given their age range.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm with Billy in terms of like the

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Speaker 3: hype thing. I feel like Santani had a ton of

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Speaker 3: hype even after that debut loss, his subsequent fight against

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Speaker 3: Nicholas Doltzi, and then his win over Gabriel Miranda in France.

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Speaker 3: He's French, got the French crowd popping behind him, So yeah,

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Speaker 3: it seems like a guy that the UFC would be

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Speaker 3: happy if he won and they could continue promoting him

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Speaker 3: because they seem to highlight him on that France card,

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Speaker 3: and you know, this is his next fight after that

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Speaker 3: they've given him. So surprised he's actually not fighting in

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Speaker 3: front of a crowd because this is a banger, likely

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Speaker 3: fight of the night. I know we're going to talk

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Speaker 3: about her fight at the Night coming up, but I

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Speaker 3: think if I was going to bet on a prop

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Speaker 3: for a fight to be Fight of the night, it

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Speaker 3: would be sant Debon fied.

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Speaker 4: And that was his only career loss too, So he's

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Speaker 4: never lost on his own weight class. He's never lost

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Speaker 4: with a full training camp, you know, not that Bonfieme

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Speaker 4: has a ton of losses or anything either. His last

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Speaker 4: loss he was like fifteen years old, or something because

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Speaker 4: he was somehow a pro as a teenager. But still

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Speaker 4: like that shouldn't be that wide of a line. It

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Speaker 4: should be much closer.

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Speaker 1: So consensus dogs. But for the fight of the night,

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Speaker 1: differing opinions. Grant Dawson demir Is Magouloff, both at minus

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Speaker 1: one ten, a lightweight match also on the Bank card,

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Speaker 1: both fighters at minus one ten. I'm always fat. It's

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Speaker 1: not often you both go against each other, so I'm

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Speaker 1: fascinated by this discussion we might have here, Sean, what

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Speaker 1: direction are you going in Dawson or is mcgooloff.

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Speaker 3: We seem to be on the opposite side of one

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Speaker 3: another in fights that involve guys who are back taking

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Speaker 3: bodylock specialists. Grant Dawson is very good at taking the

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Speaker 3: backlocking in the body triangle. But I feel like Billy

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Speaker 3: is normally on these guys, and I'm on the guy

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Speaker 3: who's the striker, who I think is a chance of

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Speaker 3: getting out of that bodylock and winning the striking.

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Speaker 1: On the feet.

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Speaker 3: So yes, another fight where Billy and I are kind

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Speaker 3: of on opposite sides of like the Brollo Rosas Christian

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Speaker 3: Rodriguez fight, where it may determine based on one position

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Speaker 3: and whether Dawson is able of getting the fight to

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Speaker 3: the ground, taking the backlocking in that body triangle and

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Speaker 3: potentially securing dominant position, if not finishing the fight. Dawson

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Speaker 3: a guy eight on one in the UFC, but he's

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Speaker 3: really impressed me because he keeps getting better. And I

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Speaker 3: first started betting his fights. I thought he had terrible cardio.

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Speaker 3: I was consistently looking to bet against him in round three,

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Speaker 3: and generally we don't see these fighters improve their cardio.

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Speaker 3: Cardio seems like it's a difficult thing to make better.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how you do it, beyond running or

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Speaker 3: doing word work or flipping tires or what have you.

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Speaker 3: Ability would probably a better idea for me than that.

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Speaker 3: But Dawson finished both of his opponents past few fights

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Speaker 3: in round three. His cardio has looked much better. He

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Speaker 3: pushes an aggressive pace, really exhausts his opponents, and I

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Speaker 3: think it's partially due to a camp switch. He was

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Speaker 3: training with James Krause. Krause got suspended by the sports

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Speaker 3: for gambling. That camp went through a bunch of turmoil,

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Speaker 3: but he left to go to American Top Team, which

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Speaker 3: is one of the top camps in the sport, and

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Speaker 3: the improvements have been very noticeable for Grant Dawson. So

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Speaker 3: I think this is a guy who's capable of fighting

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Speaker 3: for a belt. Don't think he's necessarily capable of being

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Speaker 3: a champion or defending the belt multiple times. But I

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Speaker 3: absolutely think given his style, his aggressive grappling style, suffocating style,

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Speaker 3: that he has this sort of meta style that you

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Speaker 3: need to get yourself into the title picture. Damirs mcgolov

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Speaker 3: very very fantastic striker, really slick. We've seen him grappled

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Speaker 3: in the past. I think it's possible that he can

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Speaker 3: deny the takedowns and make this not competitive, but win

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Speaker 3: the fight by keeping it on the feet. But I'm

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Speaker 3: going to go with the grappler and all of the

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Speaker 3: grappling upside. At a Pickham price, I would make Dawson

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Speaker 3: closer to sixty percent. I would make any kind of

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Speaker 3: this matchup where you have strikover versus grappler and they're

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Speaker 3: both very good, around sixty percent towards the grappler. I

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Speaker 3: just think the grappling upside gives Dawson more dominant potential.

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Speaker 3: You know, he could get one dominant round, get a

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Speaker 3: ten eight round and put himself in a position where

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Speaker 3: you're getting a push it worse just because he got

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Speaker 3: that ten eight round, So more upside for a grappler,

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Speaker 3: you know, towards dominance and towards getting this ten eight

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Speaker 3: round just pushes the money line projection in their direction.

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Speaker 3: But you know he's certainly going to see the case

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Speaker 3: for the arguments Billy is going to make for ish mcgolov,

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Speaker 3: And like I said, I think it may come down

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Speaker 3: to that one position, whether ish mcgolov is able to

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Speaker 3: get out of the body trialler it.

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Speaker 1: Now, Dawson has twelve takedowns in his last three fights combined.

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Speaker 1: He's got the better significant strike accuracy. Also, his takedown average,

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Speaker 1: as they just highlighted, has been solid lately. So Billy,

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Speaker 1: why are you going the other way?

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Speaker 4: So there's a lot of things that Sean got to

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Speaker 4: that actually played into what I'm thinking. First, I'm a

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Speaker 4: significant strike accuracy. We can toss that out because all

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Speaker 4: of Grant Dawson's significant strikes are when he has your

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Speaker 4: back or mount or something he's not standing. In boxing,

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Speaker 4: like Brendan, you could get one hundred percent significant strike

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Speaker 4: accuracy if you could sit on top of somebody while

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Speaker 4: you did it, So that doesn't really tell me.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go flip some tires too after this pod

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Speaker 1: and get much better.

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Speaker 4: But no, I'm glad Sean brought up the cardio. I

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Speaker 4: don't think Dawson had bad cardio. I don't think Dawson's

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Speaker 4: cardio has gotten better. I think, like most guys, it's

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Speaker 4: not so much that his cardio is the issue. It's

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Speaker 4: that when he fights guys that he has to take

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Speaker 4: down over and over and over again to keep them down,

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Speaker 4: he gets tired. That's really hard to do. I've said

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Speaker 4: this on the podcast before. You know, our producer uncle

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Speaker 4: Mitch likes to tease me about it, but it's like

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Speaker 4: the hardest thing to do is to continuously take someone

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Speaker 4: down and have them get back up. And that's why

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Speaker 4: he looked better in his last couple of fights against

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Speaker 4: you know, Jared Gordon kind of accepted the position a

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Speaker 4: little bit more. If you look at his draw against Oh,

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Speaker 4: I'm blanket on the name right now, who did Dawson

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Speaker 4: have the draw with.

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Speaker 2: Glenn?

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Speaker 4: If you look at that fight Glenn, he was able

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Speaker 4: to take Glenn down in the first couple rounds, but

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Speaker 4: Glenn kept getting back up, kept getting back up, and

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Speaker 4: then Glenn really put him put it on him in

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Speaker 4: the third round because those takedowns stopped coming. He didn't

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Speaker 4: have the gas tank. I think that makes it a

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Speaker 4: really tough matchup with Is mcgooloff. Is mcgooloff just fought

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Speaker 4: armand Saraukin very close fight, and you look at the statue,

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Speaker 4: you see wow Arman took him down seven times. That

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Speaker 4: means he had to get up at least four, and

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Speaker 4: it was actually more than that because none of the

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Speaker 4: rounds ended with Armin and dominant position. Is mcgouoloff like

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Speaker 4: as soon as he got taken down by Saraukkian immediately

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Speaker 4: back up. Most of the control time from Sarahakian was

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Speaker 4: against the fencer and standing clinch positions. And I I

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Speaker 4: just think that I'm not saying Dawson has bad cardio

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Speaker 4: or is mcgouoloff has better cardio, but Dawson has to

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Speaker 4: do the harder work here because when this one's standing,

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Speaker 4: is mcgouoloff has a huge advantage. It's a little bit longer,

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Speaker 4: far better striker. Dawson's a little bit sloppy, and I

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Speaker 4: just think down the stretch and even starting in the

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Speaker 4: second round, Dawson's going to have a really hard time

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Speaker 4: if he can't get to those positions. Take a little

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Speaker 4: break while he's winning some minutes, because once he gets

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Speaker 4: back to his feet, he's going to be lost. So

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Speaker 4: I'm Bettingdmir's mcgooloff on the money line. He's also going

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Speaker 4: to be my prop squad pick, which we're going to

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Speaker 4: lean into in a second. But for similar reasons, one

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Speaker 4: fighter has to get takedowns here the other one doesn't.

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Speaker 4: Is mcgooloff can grapple. We used to think of him

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Speaker 4: as a grappler until his last couple fights, so he's

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Speaker 4: got some takedown upside of his own. But if neither

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Speaker 4: of them get takedowns, it's Demir's fight.

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Speaker 1: Uncle Mitch probably watches Batman begins you know, why do

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Speaker 1: we fall? Bruce to learn to pick ourselves up. That's

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Speaker 1: what he falls back on for a inspiration. Moving on

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Speaker 1: to our top props. Most of our discussion has been

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Speaker 1: on the main card, and he looks on the pre limbs.

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Speaker 1: Possibly I know Zilla is actually going to look to

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Speaker 1: another direction, possibly for a prop.

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Speaker 3: This might be the featured prelim Kevin Lee and Fakerdinov.

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Speaker 3: I like this fight to go to a decision. Kevin

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Speaker 3: Lee making his return to the UFC. His last fight

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Speaker 3: came in Ego FC about sixteen months ago against Diego Sanchez.

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Speaker 3: He shredded his knee on the first kick of a

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Speaker 3: fight has subsequently had double knee surgery. But even at

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Speaker 3: thirty years old, Kevin Lee a guy who has had

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Speaker 3: a ton of injuries. Younger actually than his opponent, but

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Speaker 3: in terms of fight age, fight wear, and tear, seems

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Speaker 3: like Kevin Lee is on the downside of his career.

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Speaker 3: Having double knee surgery never great for an MMA fighter.

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Speaker 3: Just take a look at the videos of Tony Ferguson

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Speaker 3: moving around pre fight from earlier in his career to

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Speaker 3: his last fight against n Diaz. When your knees go,

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Speaker 3: you were just a different athlete. I don't care if

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Speaker 3: you get them repaired, You're still going to be significantly

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Speaker 3: reduced in terms of your explosiveness. In terms about this

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Speaker 3: fight plays out, though Kevin Lee really good takedown defense,

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Speaker 3: good wrestler, actually has a three inch reach advantage. He

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Speaker 3: is the much smaller man, though he's four inches shorter. Fokkardinov,

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Speaker 3: a former middleweight. Kevin Lee a former lightweight who can

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Speaker 3: no longer cut weight, now fighting at walter right, he

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Speaker 3: used to have trouble making lightweight. Always was kind of

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Speaker 3: a super lightweight, you know, closer to one to sixty

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Speaker 3: wway in than one fifty five. But you know, given

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Speaker 3: the fact that Lee's moved up to welter weight, Fakardinov

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Speaker 3: never finished or never knocked out at least, I think

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Speaker 3: Lee's knockout chances are pretty low. He's also very durable, though,

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Speaker 3: and can take a beating, so I wouldn't expect fokerd

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Speaker 3: enough to knock him out. And even when Fokardinov gets

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Speaker 3: top time, he's not a particularly aggressive finisher. So unless

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Speaker 3: Lee gets on top and is able to go to work,

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Speaker 3: I don't really see this fight finishing. I think both

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Speaker 3: guys can stay reasonably safe on the ground, I think

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Speaker 3: both guys are reasonably durable, and I don't think either

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Speaker 3: hits particularly hard. So this fight to go to this

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Speaker 3: vision of minus one twenty five, I think it's a

400
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Speaker 3: pretty solid bet. My biggest worry is Lee coming back

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Speaker 3: off with the surgeries, and potentially you know, he gets

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Speaker 3: kicked and his knee blows out and he goes down

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Speaker 3: and cant it up or what have you. But an

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Speaker 3: injury based stoppage would be my primary concern here, aside

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Speaker 3: from Lee potentially getting a submission. And then Billy's going

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Speaker 3: to talk about you know who he's betting in terms

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Speaker 3: of the side in this matchup. But I don't want

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Speaker 3: to take away too much from what he's going to say,

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Speaker 3: and I don't have a particular lean, but I do

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Speaker 3: think Lee can make this competitive, at least early. He

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Speaker 3: doesn't have the best gas tank. He tends to tire

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Speaker 3: out midway through his fights. I think foccardy enough can

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Speaker 3: take over late, but at least for the first you know,

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Speaker 3: five seven minutes when Lee is fresh to deny the takedowns,

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Speaker 3: keep this one on the feet. I actually think he

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Speaker 3: can make this reasonably competitive. But you know, definitely prefer

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Speaker 3: the fight to go to a decision in what I

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Speaker 3: expect to be a competitive fight instead of you know,

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Speaker 3: a side or taking the finish prompts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that fight is the featured on the pre It

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Speaker 1: is featured on the prelim card. Lee and fokwardenoff Billy.

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Speaker 1: You said you'd go back to the fight of the night.

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Speaker 1: There is an angle you like on is mcgool off

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Speaker 1: in the prop market.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, round three at more than plus two thousand odds.

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Speaker 4: If you look at the last few Grant Dawson fights,

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Speaker 4: he was hurt early against Mark Mattson, kind of dominated late,

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Speaker 4: which is fine, different kind of style of fight, but

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Speaker 4: Jared Gordon almost finished him in round three. You see

430
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 4: the finish by Grant Dawson a round three and think, oh,

431
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,119
Speaker 4: good cardio. He won it. You know, in the late

432
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,159
Speaker 4: minutes Gordon had him hurt pretty good with his strikes

433
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 4: in there. And then the fight prior to that against

434
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 4: Ricky Glenn, Glenn was beating him up standing. That fight

435
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 4: actually ended with Glenn holding onto a submission and maybe

436
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 4: kind of sort of Dawson was unconscious when the bell rang,

437
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 4: but woke up in time to make it look like

438
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 4: he wasn't. So that's two of his last three fights

439
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,640
Speaker 4: where he's kind of hit a wall there and ran

440
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,439
Speaker 4: into some trouble in the third round. Is mcgooloff much

441
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 4: better striker than any of those people he's fought before.

442
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,200
Speaker 4: If I'm mis mcgoole off, I'm letting him tire himself

443
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 4: out in the first round or two, get back up,

444
00:20:57,920 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 4: make him work, make him work, and then pouring it

445
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 4: on round three after Dawson's gotten tired of wrestling. So

446
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:04,879
Speaker 4: plus twenty two hundred odds. Obviously this hasn't you know,

447
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 4: bet a whole unit on it, But I like that

448
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 4: as well as the is magoulav money line.

449
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: Okay, And as we normally do, we wrap with best

450
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 1: bets in some cases are final bets because we think

451
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 1: they're all best bets. If you've heard of that before,

452
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: sorry to reiterate, but it's important for our new listeners. Zilla,

453
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 1: where are you looking for a final bet?

454
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, first fight of the card, but going ivanoff about

455
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 3: plus one twenty like down to pauls one ten or

456
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,719
Speaker 3: so against Romanov. There's a massive cardio discrepancy in this matchup,

457
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 3: and Romanov, who typically fades after five to seven minutes.

458
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 3: Last fight, he quit after missing one takedown against Alexander

459
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 3: Volkov and but gooi. Ivanov has been taken out in

460
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 3: the past. But in terms of durability, this guy is

461
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:53,120
Speaker 3: as tough as they come. Survived being stabbed nine times

462
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 3: as a bouncer at a club in Hulgaria. But I mean,

463
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,880
Speaker 3: you literally have to kill this guy, and unless Romanov's

464
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 3: have it's him inside of five minutes, I think he's

465
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 3: going to be in deep trouble because Ivanov has pretty

466
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 3: good cardio for a heavyweight. You know, I could see

467
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 3: Romanov landing and take down in round one, but Ivanov

468
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 3: can probably stay safe, and if he does, Romanov is

469
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 3: probably not gonna be able to get the takedown again

470
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 3: in round two. He will be completely gassed out. So

471
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 3: Ivanov pre fight fine bet, but I prefer him live.

472
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 3: After round one, I think I'll get a better number,

473
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 3: especially if Romanov lands the takedown and then his round

474
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 3: two plus one thousand and round three props seventeen hundred

475
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 3: I think are good stabs as well. Given the fact

476
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: that I expect Romanov to be huffing and puffing over

477
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 3: the final ten minutes, well, Ivanov should be relatively fresh,

478
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 3: so we'll go even off variety directions. Live bet probably

479
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 3: the best entry, but I have no issue taking him

480
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 3: pre fight and taking the round two in round three

481
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 3: staves as well, all.

482
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 1: Right, and to wrap Billy again those luck ratings. You

483
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: can find him in the action at actionnetwork dot com.

484
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 1: Your last fight or one of your one of the fights.

485
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 1: In the middle of the articles, you highlighted the fight

486
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 1: that Zerrilla just discussed in the in the prop discussion,

487
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 1: but you were going to go to fark Gardenoff.

488
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, before we get to that, just wanted to comment

489
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 4: on Sean's best bet blat classic wait for the weigh

490
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 4: ins before you make this bet. Romanoff was looking like

491
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 4: progressively in better shape for like three or four fights,

492
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 4: like he was getting all jacked and lean, and then

493
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 4: he showed up last time looking like Santa Claus. So

494
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 4: I have no idea what happened. That probably something to

495
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 4: do with why he quit after not getting a takedown,

496
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 4: being in worse shape. So if he comes in looking

497
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 4: all tredded and like prime brock Lesner, I'm probably not

498
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 4: going to bet on even Off. If he comes in

499
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 4: looking as bad as he did last time, Sean's bet

500
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 4: makes total sense, as well as the live angles and

501
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 4: all the other spots. So yeah, definitely Wait it's got

502
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 4: about an hour till wigans. I think that'll give us

503
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 4: some good insight there. But as far as mine, I'm

504
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 4: looking at facardin Off. As we mentioned, really, Sean kind

505
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 4: of got most of the points I wanted to hit

506
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 4: when saying why it's going to go to a decision.

507
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,159
Speaker 4: The biggest one Kevin Lee with no knees is going

508
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 4: to be slower than Reno facardin Off. And Kevin Lee,

509
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 4: a former lightweight stepping up, is going to be smaller

510
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 4: than Fakardinov who's coming down from middleweight. So we got

511
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 4: a guy who's slower, smaller. He's theoretically younger, but I

512
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 4: feel like he's been thirty for a decade now. Like

513
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 4: if you told me Kevin Lee was thirty eight, I

514
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 4: would have believed you five minutes ago. So you can

515
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 4: get as low as minus one ninety on Renot. I

516
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 4: pointed that out in the luck ratings. Didn't think that

517
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 4: would last. It hasn't it, FanDuel. But if you shop

518
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 4: around you can get some good lines. I just don't

519
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 4: think Kevin Lee has it anymore. You know, didn't look

520
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 4: great against Diego Sanchez. Obviously the knee injuries played something

521
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 4: that had something to do with that, but Diego's in

522
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 4: his forties and not you know, much of a threat anymore.

523
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 3: Either.

524
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 4: Didn't look good there. I think this is one where

525
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 4: we're building up you know, the latest Russian hype grappler guy,

526
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 4: He's going to be far more athletic, far bigger, probably

527
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 4: win the striking and then also have a good chance

528
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 4: of getting the takedowns too. So don't love laying that

529
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: kind of juice on my fight of the night. You

530
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 4: could definitely parlay it with a over one and a

531
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 4: half or something like that to cut some of that,

532
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 4: but I'm okay with the money line this time.

533
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: Any thoughts there's a rolling I had some thoughts on Fakardinoff,

534
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: but anything to add on a potential money line play.

535
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: No, No, I think you know that that same game,

536
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 3: parlay the over one and a half maybe Facardinov by decision.

537
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 3: I think you know, those might be slightly better prices

538
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 3: and encompass more of his wing condition than just the

539
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 3: straight money line play, just because I don't see it

540
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: finish happening in this fight. So any iteration, especially with

541
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 3: Lee's history of tiring out the longest fights go, any

542
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 3: iteration of Facardinoff and the fight going longer, as Billy said,

543
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 3: over one and a half or you know, to go

544
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 3: to a decision, I think are solid ways to play it.

545
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 3: But I'm just going to stick with the fight to

546
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 3: go to a decision of minus one twenty five. I

547
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: don't want to deal with the apex judging. And you

548
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 3: know Kevin Lee's popularity and who knows with his with

549
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 3: his brother becoming more popular than he is, maybe the

550
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 3: UFC wants to continue to hype Kevin Lee up. But yeah,

551
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: it's a fight to go to decision Keith Lee the

552
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: food reviewer, food reviewer, that was it?

553
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 2: All right?

554
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: Fellas great work, Billy Ward Chonzrollo. Find them in the

555
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 1: Action app if they have anything to add, especially those

556
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: live plays after a certain round when they possibly add

557
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 1: something if it applies to what they've discussed today on

558
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: the podcast. All the fights are available on the ESPN

559
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: family of networks. Prelims start at four eastern and then

560
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: seven eastern. The main car gets underway seven eastern in

561
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 1: the evening. Of course, last week was it more of

562
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:23,640
Speaker 1: an afternoon midday special. So for those guys, Brendan Glasheen,

563
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: thanks for tuning into our UFC betting preview. We will

564
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 1: be back next week. We'll also have the video version

565
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: the way in if you are more you want to

566
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: see our beautiful faces. We've got the way in next

567
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 1: week as well, so be on the lookout for that.

568
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast presented by Fandel,

569
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 1: Have a great weekend, Talk to you next week. Action

570
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

571
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

572
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler