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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea on Apple podcast. Thank you for listening,

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Speaker 2: Thank you for telling people about this. It's building the idea.

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Speaker 2: Here is six seven minutes of smart, not my smart,

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Speaker 2: our guests smart, and I guess are awfully smart. Today

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Speaker 2: was just a brilliant I really can't say enough about

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Speaker 2: particularly the fixed income focus is extraordinary with the idea

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Speaker 2: of price up, yield down. We'll get to that with

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Speaker 2: Ian Lincoln here in a moment. Within all of it

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Speaker 2: was the strength of retail sales. Thank you so much

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Speaker 2: to Dana Telsey, her commitment to what we do with

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Speaker 2: Telsey Advisory Group. She was absolutely brilliant on this Walmart

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Speaker 2: news and I gave her a five year question on

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Speaker 2: Walmart and she said they will just continue to dominate.

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Speaker 2: And you know, frankly, we didn't talk about the department

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Speaker 2: stores and what the middle of the retail is doing.

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Speaker 2: But the first for luxury I found was just fascinating

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Speaker 2: where they're encyclopedic knowledge on retail. From an economic standpoint,

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Speaker 2: we spoke from PIMCO Tiffany Wilding.

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Speaker 1: This completely confirms that the US was not in recession

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Speaker 1: in July and Obviously, the risks of that, or at

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Speaker 1: least the market's focus on the risks of that, were

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Speaker 1: increased because of the unemployment report, and specifically the increase

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Speaker 1: in the unemployment rate, which has triggered the so called

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Speaker 1: SAM rule. Historically, this sm rule has been a good

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Speaker 1: indicator that we are in recession right now. But you know,

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Speaker 1: as we've been discussing, there's good reasons to believe why

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Speaker 1: this time is actually different with that rule. We've had

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Speaker 1: pretty big supply side gains in the labor market over

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Speaker 1: the last few years as a result of immigration and

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Speaker 1: just folks coming back post pandemic, and that's not the

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Speaker 1: markings of an economy that's in recession. This retail sales

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Speaker 1: report just completely confirm that Tiffany.

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Speaker 2: Wilding of PIMCO really something I looked up while she

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Speaker 2: was speaking Newport Beach, California. The average price of a

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Speaker 2: house in Newport Beach is just over three point three

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Speaker 2: million dollars. I just it's not normal, or it's at

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Speaker 2: least a different part of America from what we what

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Speaker 2: we see and hear. So much of this is about

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Speaker 2: an equity market higher. I mentioned that the vics from

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Speaker 2: a sixty five levels, seventy six percent down below sixteen.

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Speaker 2: The market moves are just stunning, is no other way

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Speaker 2: to put it. And the linkage here, of course is

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Speaker 2: to the crystal ball out on yield. Many people are

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Speaker 2: looking at price up, yield down. Loriol's David Rosenberg was

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Speaker 2: brilliant earlier this week with Rosenberg Research. Ian Lncoln spent

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Speaker 2: time with us today with Bemo Capital Markets, and again

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Speaker 2: he reaffirmed ages ago the unthinkable move under four percent,

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Speaker 2: and he reaffirms now the unthinkable move under three percent.

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Speaker 3: Let's listen, I think that a three percent or two

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Speaker 3: point nine nine percent ten year yield is the new

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Speaker 3: normal post everything that has occurred during the pandemic. It

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Speaker 3: is not going to be associated with negative or zero

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Speaker 3: policy rates. It's going to be a reflection of the

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Speaker 3: FED success in getting break evens down, re establishing price stability,

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Speaker 3: and some softness in the overall economy that almost invariably

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Speaker 3: follows a hiking and tightening campaign, particularly one of this

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Speaker 3: magnitude and with terminal in place for this long.

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Speaker 2: In Lincoln A Bibo Capital Markets, and I'll just tell you,

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Speaker 2: I can honestly say, with a flash crash or whatever,

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Speaker 2: it was I've never seen anything like this off of

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Speaker 2: the move higher today, at least higher as we take

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Speaker 2: this for a single best idea off of this move,

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Speaker 2: there's some interesting data points in the Bloomberg launch pad.

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Speaker 2: I went to the currency market where we have stronger dollar,

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Speaker 2: better American economy, no recession d XY from a one

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Speaker 2: oh two to one oh three. In critical. We saw

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Speaker 2: some significant yen weakening. We went through the one forty

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Speaker 2: eight level, one forty six, one forty seven weaker yen,

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Speaker 2: one forty eight stronger dollar that bears careful, careful watching

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Speaker 2: given some of the challenges there. They showed some economic

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Speaker 2: data and the headline number was buoyant real GDP in Japan.

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Speaker 2: I'll be blunt, I don't buy it in Japan. I

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Speaker 2: look at nominal GDP and it's still a very fragile

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Speaker 2: economic experiment. Full disclosure. Some people disagree with me on that.

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Speaker 2: we're there with a icon. We're going to change it.

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Speaker 2: They did a photo shoot. They didn't invite me, but

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Speaker 2: they did a photo shoot and they're going to change

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