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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. We

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Speaker 1: are just now days away from the NFL Draft being

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Speaker 1: live from the Steal City, so we're gonna help you

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Speaker 1: out from a gambling perspective and give you our top

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Speaker 1: ten best bets and a couple of long shots for

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Speaker 1: the occasion. I'm hero Seth Wilcock, coming off a late

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Speaker 1: night where I finished up.

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Speaker 2: My phal mock draft for the season.

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Speaker 1: Watch those opening scenes of draft Day just to feel

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Speaker 1: a little something. And of course back with me is

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Speaker 1: the Sony Weaver of this particular program. He's the GM

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Speaker 1: Derek Brown debro. How is the NFL Draft betting card

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Speaker 1: looking overall? As we're just a few days away from

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders being on the clock.

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Speaker 3: We're doing good, man. I think I've got I'm around

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Speaker 3: fourteen or fifteen bets right now. I know we're okay,

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Speaker 3: wait until the and as we're recording this on Monday morning,

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Speaker 3: we're probably gonna get hopefully a few more markets that

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Speaker 3: kind of open up, So you know, stay in tuned

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Speaker 3: to our socials and stuff. As we're tweeting out stuff

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Speaker 3: at that we're finding that we like that hopefully get

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Speaker 3: added later this week. But it's wonderful, man. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we talked about this for weeks and weeks and weeks,

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Speaker 3: and now we are finally here. It is the week

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Speaker 3: of the NFL Draft. The content's getting all published. We're

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Speaker 3: tying up final mock drafts. My top one hundred is

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Speaker 3: live on the site. By the time you're listening to this,

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Speaker 3: by all my prospect primers are live. Like we are

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Speaker 3: just absolutely just te tying the bows on things. Seth.

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Speaker 3: It's a great time, dude.

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Speaker 2: We are absolutely doing that.

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Speaker 1: And you know, as we're doing it, the flood state

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Speaker 1: still open to NFL news and information right even just

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Speaker 1: this morning, right.

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Speaker 3: Your mock draft immediately it hasn't even been live for

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Speaker 3: an hour and you gotta go update that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what happens though, you know when you're uh oh,

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Speaker 1: you're doing things last minute like we are, thank you, say.

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Speaker 3: Francisco forty nine ers and Trent Williams a paid man

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Speaker 3: but not great for the mocks.

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Speaker 1: Big Trench back if you haven't heard, folks, he's back. Nope,

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Speaker 1: Blake Miller there for the San Francisco forty nine ers,

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Speaker 1: but as not doing today's program, We're gonna break down

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Speaker 1: our best bets for the NFL draft betting markets. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna help you cash in one final time really before

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Speaker 1: preseason ball kicks off from Tom Benson Hall of Fames

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Speaker 1: in Canton, Ohio this summer. And of course, if you

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Speaker 1: enjoy this type of content, don't forget to subscribe to

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Speaker 1: our audio feeds, the Betting Pros Feed, the Fantasy Pros Feed,

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros Dynasty, and the Tailgate Feed, plus their

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Speaker 1: respective YouTube channels. We'd really really appreciate that. And Derek,

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Speaker 1: let's go ahead and jump into our best bets. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna get a started here with a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a longer shot one. It's Tye Simpson to go to

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Speaker 1: the New York Jets plus three ninety eight. I've got

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Speaker 1: about point six of a unit down on this, and

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Speaker 1: this one's simple for me, Derek, Like the Jets quarterback

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Speaker 1: room is Geno Smith, Brady Coke Outamazoo and Bailey Zip

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Speaker 1: on the ball Zafi right now, and their head coach

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Speaker 1: Aaron Glenn is already on the hot seat for me,

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Speaker 1: with them having four picks in the first forty four,

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Speaker 1: including that valuable thirty third overall pick that they could

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Speaker 1: use with one of their you know, fourth or fifth

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Speaker 1: round picks to move up back into the first. I

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Speaker 1: think it's possibly in play, especially with all the heat

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Speaker 1: that we're hearing that the Cardinals are also going to

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Speaker 1: potentially be aggressive on Ty Simpsons. So I just think, like,

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Speaker 1: while I'm not gonna say Simpsons better than for Nam,

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Speaker 1: and I'm definitely higher on him than I know you

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Speaker 1: are based on our previous conversations on the NFL Draft Show,

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Speaker 1: I still think he's a legit NFL ball thrower. I

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Speaker 1: think he's a great between the ears, and I think

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Speaker 1: the Jets they have to at least be in the

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Speaker 1: mix with the Cardinals to potentially go get Ty Simpson.

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Speaker 1: So at almost four to one, I really like this

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Speaker 1: play here on Ty Simpson.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Bailey Zippy says Hi, by the way, shout out to.

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Speaker 2: Nip on the Ball's appy baby needs to call him

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Speaker 2: back in the day.

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Speaker 3: I mean, dude, my thing with Ty Simpson is I

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Speaker 3: don't hate the call with the Jets and stuff like that.

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Speaker 3: I think he ends up with the Arizona Cardinals. Now,

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Speaker 3: whether that's round one, round two, I think the odds

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Speaker 3: you're getting are totally fine. I didn't throw this in

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Speaker 3: our long shot portion of the show. But I will say,

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Speaker 3: at this point, considering the odds, if I was going

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Speaker 3: to take a Ty Simpson landing spot, give me the

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Speaker 3: Cleveland Browns at plus nineteen hundred right now they have

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Speaker 3: done any work on him. If this hits, this can

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Speaker 3: make your entire card. Dude, you literally could bet make

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Speaker 3: five bets. Make this bet and it can make your

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Speaker 3: night if it does hit. So you know I'll throw

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Speaker 3: it out. There is like the official like one b

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Speaker 3: long shot bet for me, but I don't know it's

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Speaker 3: the Jets call if you're getting those kind of odds. Now.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at a few different books right now as

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Speaker 3: we're recording this. I see like plus two eighty plus

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Speaker 3: two hundred in some spots. If I was staring at

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Speaker 3: those odds, then I wouldn't make the bet. But at

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Speaker 3: almost plus four hundred, yeah, I get it. Yep, shop

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Speaker 3: all these the books. Got to drop bet to see

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Speaker 3: what they have available. That's a proud presenting sponsor of

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Speaker 3: the show.

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Speaker 1: And Derek, you're actually going to stay at the quarterback

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Speaker 1: position for your first bet of the night, But it's

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Speaker 1: actually one that you're kind of fading tie Senson a bit.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I've said it through the entirety of this process.

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Speaker 3: He is not a first round quarterback. He should not

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Speaker 3: be drafted in the first round. You look at the

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Speaker 3: teams at the top of the second round, and if

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Speaker 3: a team doesn't trade back into the back end of

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Speaker 3: the first round to get him, then he's going to

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Speaker 3: go at the top of the second round and the

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Speaker 3: two favorite team like we're talking about here, like, yes, fine,

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Speaker 3: Cleveland could be in play, Yes, the Cardinals could be play, Yes,

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Speaker 3: the Jets could be in play. So for me, one

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Speaker 3: of my favorite bets right now is because you could

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Speaker 3: still get this at plus money. Is QB selected in

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Speaker 3: round one under one and a half right now, you

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Speaker 3: can get this at plus one forty five to plus

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Speaker 3: like in the one plus one fifty range at plus

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Speaker 3: odds for that bet right now, absolutely, because it only

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Speaker 3: takes one blurb to come out, seth. It takes one

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Speaker 3: blurb to come out to say, yeah, Simpson's more likely

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Speaker 3: to go in the second round than he is to

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Speaker 3: first round, and then this automatically becomes like a minus

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Speaker 3: one seventy bet.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, no, I mean, this is the play and

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Speaker 1: the good thing about this bet, Derek. If it hits

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Speaker 1: there's a good chance it also hits my Jets bet right,

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Speaker 1: and then yeah, thirty three. Overall they end up with him.

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Speaker 1: You just pretty much have to be wary of the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals potentially trading up. That's really kind of the tea

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Speaker 1: leaves we're hearing now, but personally, like I think with

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Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett, you know, potentially negotiating a longer term or

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Speaker 1: at least a more extensive deal that maybe they do

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Speaker 1: stay put there in the second round and Tys Simpson

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Speaker 1: ultimately does fall out. Let's go ahead to my next

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Speaker 1: best bet here and Derek where it's another one that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be definitely a tester at the end of the

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Speaker 1: first round. But it's Caleb Banks to be a first

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Speaker 1: round pick. I'm on the yes side at plus two

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Speaker 1: seventeen for a unit, and for me, I've loved watching

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Speaker 1: Caleb Banks play. He had a really strong pre draft process,

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Speaker 1: showed that he has certainly recovered well from that twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five foot injury that kept him out for the

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Speaker 1: entire season, and he wrapped up his testing within nine

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Speaker 1: point eighty three relative athletics school. That's a raz coming

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Speaker 1: from math bomb and that plus is twenty twenty three

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Speaker 1: and twenty twenty four seasons where he was really the

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Speaker 1: lynchpin on that defense for the Florida Gators and Billy Napier.

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Speaker 1: I think he's potentially the DT one or the DT

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Speaker 1: two of this class, depending how you feel about Peter

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Speaker 1: Woods and Cade McDonald. And you just look at the

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Speaker 1: back half of the first Derek and all these teams

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Speaker 1: that need a defensive tackle, whether it's the Bears, whether

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Speaker 1: it's the Texans, whether it's Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a ton of teams that need have services.

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Speaker 1: So I feel really good about getting this at plus

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Speaker 1: two seventeen, and it continues to grow. These odds do

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Speaker 1: as well, Like this is actually when I probably could

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Speaker 1: have got better, ev if I would have waited a

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Speaker 1: little bit, because I've seen him closer to four to

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Speaker 1: one of different books as well.

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Speaker 2: As we are coming into the week.

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Speaker 3: Let's tie this together. Let's tie two bets together into one.

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Speaker 3: Here you talked about Caleb Banks being a first round

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Speaker 3: pick at plus two seventeen. The other thing, if you

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Speaker 3: truly believe and I think this can happen, I've been

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Speaker 3: continually mocking Caleb Banks to Seattle at thirty two. And

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Speaker 3: if we think that this truly can happen, shop your

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Speaker 3: books and what's available to you, depending on what book

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Speaker 3: you're using. If you can't bet Caleb Banks is a

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Speaker 3: first round pick, then take Seattle the first position they

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Speaker 3: are going to select right now. You can get this

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Speaker 3: at plus four hundred to take DL or Edge right now.

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Speaker 3: So whether it's Banks as a first round pick, or

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Speaker 3: you want to go the plus four hundred route with

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Speaker 3: Seattle and we want to get more specific with this,

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Speaker 3: I'm here for it. Man. Both of those could hit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so too.

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Speaker 1: And I think the interesting thing about that is even

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Speaker 1: if Seattle does, I think they're still liable to potentially

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Speaker 1: go with a d Like, what other needs do they have, Derek,

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Speaker 1: they lost a ton on that defensive front. You know,

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Speaker 1: maybe they want to address the secondary and continue to

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Speaker 1: build there. I understand that, but like, I don't see

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Speaker 1: them going running back like the consensus kind of does it.

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Speaker 2: It just feels too rich for price from that standpoint.

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Speaker 2: So well, the other.

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Speaker 3: Part about it is if you're looking at Seattle and

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Speaker 3: cap situation and what do they have in free money

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Speaker 3: and stuff like that, Like they're gonna have to like

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Speaker 3: resign and retain a few guys within the next like

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Speaker 3: you know, two years and stuff, JSN extension and so

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Speaker 3: it's how do they get out ahead of this? Probably

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Speaker 3: not with running back. They're probably not worried about that.

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Speaker 3: Like so you know, they cant address running back later

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Speaker 3: in the draft, whether it's round two, round three, and stuff.

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Speaker 3: So like with round one, it's you're looking at these

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Speaker 3: more expensive positions. Well, wide receivers kind of tied up.

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Speaker 3: They already got quarterback, so and their offensive line is

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Speaker 3: pretty much set. So okay, we're back to d line.

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Speaker 3: So if they're gonna sit here and get ahead of

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Speaker 3: an that could be pressing going into next season and stuff,

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Speaker 3: Delon makes a ton of sense to.

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Speaker 1: Next up here for my third best bet of the

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Speaker 1: NFL Draft, I'm going Ruben Bain Junior to be a

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Speaker 1: top ten pick on the yes side, last one, sixty

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Speaker 1: two three units down for me, Derek, and like, if

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Speaker 1: this was a play that would have been betable months ago,

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Speaker 1: I think we both would have been surprised. But it

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Speaker 1: was really that thirty point nine inch arms that he

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Speaker 1: came into the combine with that really started pushing him

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Speaker 1: down boards, right, But I don't think it's so far

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Speaker 1: that he's going to get passed either eight to the

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Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints or nine overall to the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: Derek, Like, this is still a twenty one year old prospect.

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Speaker 1: To finished in the ACC with seven and a half

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Speaker 1: sacks as a freshman before somewhat regressing as a sophomore

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Speaker 1: due to those injuries, then returns this past year to

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Speaker 1: form really set a career high in tackles fifty four

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Speaker 1: tackles for the lost fifteen and a half nine a

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Speaker 1: half sacks, and he was on full display man in

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Speaker 1: the college football playoffs in the National Championship. To me, like,

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Speaker 1: I just don't think a guy who was an AP

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Speaker 1: consensus All American at edge as well as Tim Hendrick's

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Speaker 1: Award winner falls out of the top ten, even though

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Speaker 1: the arms are you know, more t rex Ish than

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Speaker 1: big Hulk arms.

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Speaker 2: If you would, no, and I.

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Speaker 3: Think you have a few different outs for this, you know,

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Speaker 3: Like that's the other thing. If you're betting like guys

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Speaker 3: to go at certain parts of the draft, you don't

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Speaker 3: want to sit here and attach your wagon. This kind

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Speaker 3: of just the overarching way to kind of bet the

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Speaker 3: NFL draft is you want to give yourself out. So

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Speaker 3: it's not like you don't want to be like, oh,

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Speaker 3: for instance, moo, you no a top five or something

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Speaker 3: like that. Oh wait, it's only really likely that he

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Speaker 3: goes to the Cardinals, and if he doesn't go to

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Speaker 3: the Cardinals, then then you're probably screwed. So like you're

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Speaker 3: giving yourself outs because like with Bain, you can make

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Speaker 3: a case like I doubt the Commanders do it, but

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Speaker 3: you could maybe squint and see it. But also like

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Speaker 3: the Saints and the Chiefs, like those are also outs

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Speaker 3: for Bain as well. So you know, again you're giving

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Speaker 3: yourself outs. So yeah, I don't hate this at all.

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Speaker 3: You can get this at minus one at some books.

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Speaker 2: Too, okay, good to know.

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Speaker 1: Good another you can you know, get a little bit

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Speaker 1: that juice off there other places.

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Speaker 2: Continue to shop there.

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Speaker 1: And Derek speaking a big Fran, you actually are fading

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Speaker 1: him just a little bit here because you actually think

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Speaker 1: it might be a different offensive tackle that is the

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Speaker 1: first ol off the board.

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Speaker 3: I do. So I'm actually looking at Spencer Fano at

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Speaker 3: plus two hundred to be the first offensive lineman selected.

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Speaker 3: And this isn't just like you know, fading Francis Mainoa.

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Speaker 3: This also goes down to like you're looking at scheme,

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Speaker 3: fit and versatility. Mauno is a mountain dude, so like gap, skiing,

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Speaker 3: power run game concepts, looking at the fit there and stuff.

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Speaker 3: So like you look at some of these other team

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Speaker 3: like the little floor stuff and doing more outside zone.

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Speaker 3: Could he go to the Arizona Cardinals at three? Could

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Speaker 3: he be the pick to the Browns at six if

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Speaker 3: they just had to go offensive tackle first? Sure, then

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Speaker 3: we're looking at a situation where Fano might be the

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Speaker 3: first offensive lineman off the board and it's not mauioa.

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Speaker 3: So I just like the odds you're getting on Fano

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Speaker 3: plus the skill set, plus a in getting yourself out

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Speaker 3: to possible landing spots here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a great way to kind of

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Speaker 1: hedge yourself there a little bit. Especially like I almost think,

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Speaker 1: like maybe it's crazy, but vega Ione coming out of

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Speaker 1: Penn State, he's a guard, so he's not a premium position,

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Speaker 1: but like he's like fourteen fifteen to one. I've seen

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Speaker 1: some books to be the first offensive lineman off the board,

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Speaker 1: So I think whatever way you want to hedge yourself there.

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Speaker 1: I think fading Big Fran, who's been a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a late process followers speciically because he doesn't play

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Speaker 1: left tackle right and like it's hard to I don't

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Speaker 1: want to say he doesn't play left tackle, but he

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Speaker 1: didn't play left tackle this past season.

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Speaker 2: So and and Fawn who's kind of in that similar camp.

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Speaker 1: But we've at least seen Faunu within the last couple

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Speaker 1: of years play more left tackle than Big Fran.

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Speaker 3: Well, so two other points here. The other thing is

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Speaker 3: we're all talking about teams and you know, even like

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Speaker 3: content creators and analysts like all we're all kind of

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Speaker 3: splitting hairs with like this offensive lying class and who's

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Speaker 3: really the best, And then you talk about also if

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Speaker 3: there is any legs because the thing is we don't

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Speaker 3: also know as well, all the stuff that came out

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Speaker 3: in the media now again going to sources and what

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Speaker 3: have you that came out in the media was all

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Speaker 3: the health checks on malinoa were good when they came back.

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Speaker 3: But what if like we're not getting the full four

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Speaker 3: one one on that and there is any kind of hesitation,

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Speaker 3: or if a team is like, look, we have MALANOA

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Speaker 3: and Fano is like our top guys or even like

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Speaker 3: if you wanted to look at this as like further

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Speaker 3: saying Okay Monroe freeling or somebody else like that. This

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Speaker 3: all goes back to if there's any medical stuff that

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Speaker 3: is not general consensus knowledge out there in the space,

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Speaker 3: but NFL teams know it, yes, and their boards stack

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Speaker 3: up of we have all these guys like right there

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Speaker 3: with each other, and so we're gonna split here. So

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Speaker 3: the medicals are any part of the conversation that push

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Speaker 3: one player over another, like we could be in for

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Speaker 3: a surprise and that's not baked in the markets.

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Speaker 2: Right now, We've got.

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Speaker 1: Four more best bets coming your way in a couple

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Speaker 1: of long shots to fall.

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Speaker 2: But first, a quick reminder.

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Speaker 1: To join our Day one NFL Draft live stream on

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Speaker 1: Thursday a third at seven thirty pm Eastern Time. Myself,

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Speaker 1: Derek Brown, Andrew Rickson a ton of guests will be

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Speaker 1: along for the ride at Fantasy Pros on the YouTube

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Speaker 1: channel YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros. We got coverage

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Speaker 1: throughout the entire first round. Worm Fits are gonna take

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Speaker 1: you home that night and then we'll be back here

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Speaker 1: for you Friday six thirty pm Eastern Time to offer

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Speaker 1: instant reactions to every single Day two selection. Lastly, you

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Speaker 1: can catch our Day three Dynasty Deep Dive Saturday at

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00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,480
Speaker 1: seven pm Eastern Time on the Fantasy Pros Dynasty YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to both channels and turn on those notifications so

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Speaker 1: you can be alerted when we are going live and

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Speaker 1: so you don't miss a single pick. And Derek, let's

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Speaker 1: keep the pick rolling right here. Whereas my second best bet,

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Speaker 1: I'm drinking the juice. This is maybe one of the

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Speaker 1: heavier glasses I've ever drunk in a bet, but I

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Speaker 1: gotta do it here. Four units down Jeremiah Love to

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Speaker 1: be a top five pick, Yes, minus two hundred and

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Speaker 1: look like I have a good friend in the industry, Derek.

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Speaker 1: He says, you only pay the juice if you'll lose,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think we lose this bet because the

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Speaker 1: Titans were bottom three in rushing last year. Tony Pollard

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Speaker 1: ty j spears their deals are up after the season.

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Speaker 2: That's the floor.

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Speaker 1: And I've thought for a long time, Derek, do I

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Speaker 1: take that around even money for the Titans to go

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Speaker 1: with Jeremiah Love? And I'm glad I didn't because we've

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Speaker 1: seen a ton of smoke as of Monday morning that

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals are either a considering love deeply at three

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Speaker 1: or be they're gonna trade out right and maybe someone

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Speaker 1: moves up there take club. So I think it's likely

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Speaker 1: he goes three or four. I think that's the floor.

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Speaker 1: And even if he does fall to five, I think

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Speaker 1: John Harball is gonna be a real tough time passing

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Speaker 1: up on a generational running back talent despite having camp

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Speaker 1: scattaboot in that backfield. So Jeremiah Love to be a

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Speaker 1: top five pick minus two hundred, That's where I'm heading

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Speaker 1: their thoughts on that, and what is your next best

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Speaker 1: bet as well, Derek Brown.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you're drinking a minus two hundred, you

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Speaker 3: definitely have to like the taste of that kool aid.

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Speaker 2: Yes, you know, I totally understand.

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Speaker 3: The logical A yeah, And I understand the logic and

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Speaker 3: thinking like I'm not gonna make a lot of like

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Speaker 3: minus one fifty minus two hundred bets, But I understand

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Speaker 3: logic here in the sense of like also again going

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Speaker 3: back to it, you're giving yourself out of like three

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Speaker 3: possible teams inside of the top five, So I totally

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Speaker 3: understand the logic here. Next team for me is Kansas

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Speaker 3: City first position selected to either be cornerback or wide receiver,

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Speaker 3: and those two spots you can get plus three hundred

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Speaker 3: and plus three twenty. So here's the thing. What if

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Speaker 3: Jordan Tyson doesn't make it to the Giants at ten

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Speaker 3: because he goes to Kansas City and nine If that's

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Speaker 3: If that's the case, you'll be very happy you made

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Speaker 3: this bet. But if we're looking at this roster just

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Speaker 3: in overall totality, it's like, could you make a case

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Speaker 3: for edge, Sure? Could you also make a case for

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Speaker 3: offensive line for KC. Sure? But yeah, you can also

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Speaker 3: make the easy case for cornerback and wide receiver, and

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Speaker 3: those being a plus three hundred odds for both and

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Speaker 3: higher for both of those. Yeah, at those prices. Uh

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Speaker 3: huh we my beak, let's go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm completely on board with this.

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Speaker 1: In mantraft one point zero that I did k I

383
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Speaker 1: actually had them going tackle. But from everything I've heard,

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Speaker 1: they love Jalen Moore. Right, this is a guy that

385
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Speaker 1: they're not going last year exactly. And like for me,

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Speaker 1: the only way I see them going edge is if,

387
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Speaker 1: like Ruben Bain or someone like of that variety falls

388
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Speaker 1: down to them and then it makes it a tough decision,

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Speaker 1: but I certainly agree.

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Speaker 2: I'll talk more about this with one of my long.

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Speaker 1: Shot bets, but I do think it is cornerback or

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Speaker 1: defensive back or wide receiver that they go here. So

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Speaker 1: I love that play a lot there from you And

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Speaker 1: for my best bet at the NFL Draft, Derek, it's

395
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Speaker 1: a simple one here. It's first defensive back drafted, Caleb

396
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Speaker 1: Downs plus one and one.

397
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Speaker 2: I got two units down on this one.

398
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Speaker 1: And like this has been arguably the best defensive player

399
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Speaker 1: in college football in the past two seasons man, And

400
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 1: like Ohio State's defense, this is arguably one of the

401
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 1: best units I've ever seen play. Like I'm going to

402
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 1: be honest, and it doesn't matter if it was twenty

403
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Speaker 1: twenty four when you had guys like Tyler Williams, you

404
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 1: had guys like Captain Jack Or this past year was

405
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:56,199
Speaker 1: rvel Ree, Sony Styles, Lorenzo Styles, all these big names.

406
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Speaker 2: This defense was built around.

407
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Speaker 1: Caleb Downs, Man led the SEC tackles as a freshman

408
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,919
Speaker 1: down there in Bama, earned SEC Freshman of the Year honors,

409
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Speaker 1: First Team All SEC Honors. Then he comes up to

410
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:10,159
Speaker 1: Columbus where he wins the National Championship, two consensus All

411
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Speaker 1: America Honors, Big Ten, Defensive Player of the Year, the

412
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Speaker 1: Jim Thorpe Award. I can keep going, man, But to me,

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Speaker 1: Derek like this is a matchup between him and Mansoor Delane, right,

414
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Speaker 1: and I think at only twenty one years old, I

415
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Speaker 1: just think there are way more teams that might need

416
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Speaker 1: his services as high as five overall to the New

417
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,439
Speaker 1: York Giants, where I don't see that type of ceiling

418
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Speaker 1: with Delane. A couple of weeks ago, actually you could

419
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Speaker 1: have gotten after Peter Schrager put out Monk Draft one

420
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,120
Speaker 1: point zero, you could have gotten plus one seventy five,

421
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 1: just be a top ten pick, which I wish I

422
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 1: would have done. But I think just inside that top

423
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 1: ten you got Arizona, New York, Cleveland, Washington, Kansas City,

424
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Speaker 1: all of them could use him.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go ahead.

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Speaker 1: And while that gap has narrowed between Downs and Delane,

427
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 1: I still think it should not be where Delane was

428
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Speaker 1: the favorite at one point. So Caleb Downs two years

429
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Speaker 1: down to be the first defensive back off the board.

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Speaker 3: I'm totally down with that, and I'm not saying they

431
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Speaker 3: go this direction, but you can even make a case

432
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Speaker 3: for him at the Jay that's it too. And again wow,

433
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Speaker 3: I don't think that like they go that direction and

434
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Speaker 3: they need them. But what I'm saying is, like, again

435
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,879
Speaker 3: the way that we're talking about and contextualizing this draft

436
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 3: class as well as needs and players and stuff like that,

437
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 3: you can make a case for him with a ton

438
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 3: of fits.

439
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 1: So I like this, bet a Ton and Downtown Derek Brown,

440
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 1: your best bet for the twenty twenty six NFL Draft is.

441
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,160
Speaker 3: After the Trent Williams News, it's San Francisco to take

442
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 3: first position drafted as a wide receiver at plus four

443
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 3: twenty five. And again going with this with these odds, dude,

444
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 3: Mike Evans is on basically a glorified one year deal.

445
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,680
Speaker 3: Ricky Piersoll has been unable to stay healthy. That was

446
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 3: a problem going back to even his college resume. Yeah,

447
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 3: you look at Christian Kirk, what does he provide for

448
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,959
Speaker 3: you and whether this year or moving forward. So a

449
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 3: lot of the betting markets, like the favorite spots here

450
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 3: are offensive line. I think that moves considering the Trent

451
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 3: Williams news and just really like, at what point have

452
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 3: we seen outside of Trent Williams San Francisco really prioritize

453
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 3: their offensive line. It's not a thing that they really

454
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 3: care about. It's so in the sense of like spending

455
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 3: high equity there. So you look at the rest of

456
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:10,959
Speaker 3: this roster. Okay, well, Kenyan City probably doesn't make it

457
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 3: to them, So George Kittle, eventual replacement's probably not there.

458
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 3: Could they go d line, could they go edge? Yeah,

459
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:19,159
Speaker 3: it's possible. But at these prices, you're gonna give me

460
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 3: a four to one on a wide receiver considering the

461
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 3: constitution of the rest of this roster. Ah, yes, please,

462
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 3: especially where they draft in the in the back half

463
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 3: of the first round and the guys that can be

464
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 3: available to them there whether I think he goes earlier

465
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 3: than this, but like a Casey conceptsiom would be there,

466
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 3: Omar Cooper chu here might possibly be there, Boston might

467
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 3: be there. So like, yeah, there's a lot of different

468
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 3: names and outs that you can attach this team to.

469
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: And so for that being, especially like they tried to

470
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 3: address like or get ahead of needs and stuff like

471
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 3: that with drafting Ricky Pearsall and like with all the

472
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,479
Speaker 3: health stuff, then they go out and they sign like

473
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 3: Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and stuff, so it's like

474
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: those are not long term peace. I just don't see

475
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 3: this team continue to kick the can down the road

476
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 3: with wide receiver and really looking at playmakers, and especially

477
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 3: when you look at the overall age of the skill

478
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: players on the offensive side of the ball, it just

479
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 3: makes a lot of sense.

480
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 1: Dude. I initially had them going wide receiver Derek and

481
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 1: then I pivoted back in the mock draft to tackle

482
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 1: because I was like, maybe they do have for replace

483
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,239
Speaker 1: Trent Williams. But now I'm completely back on board with

484
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: you because, like, dude, like think about this offense for them, man,

485
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 1: Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Ricky, Sticky, all those guys get

486
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 1: super like.

487
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 2: You know, they're all injury risk.

488
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey's coming off a million touches, George Kittle is

489
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,120
Speaker 1: coming off a torn achilles. Like, if any of those

490
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 1: guys go down, they do not have the offensive firepower

491
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 1: to compete with Seattle with the Rams. So I think

492
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 1: they absolutely need to add another pass catcher, and I

493
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: really like where they're sitting to potentially do that. So

494
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,800
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Speaker 2: Derek Brown.

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Speaker 1: We are here in the long shot section of the show.

537
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: We want some big money, and we want it now.

538
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: How are you delivering that to the fine people? Even

539
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: if maybe we have to wait until Friday to do it.

540
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 3: Green Bay Packers to draft a wide receiver with their

541
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 3: first pick. You can get this at plus nine hundred,

542
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 3: And I know old Packer fans are gonna roll their

543
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: eyes at this. It's a failure right now, and I

544
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 3: get it. But hear me out, people, they traded Dantavian Wicks.

545
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,120
Speaker 3: You look at the constitution this team has been. I mean,

546
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 3: look at the last few years for them drafting multiple

547
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 3: wide receivers in the last few different classes. The thing

548
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 3: about it is you look at their current depth chart,

549
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 3: trading dn Tavian Wicks, who was an impending free agent

550
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 3: after this upcoming season. Also with Jaden Reid after this

551
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 3: year gonna be a free agent, Christian Watson after this

552
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 3: year gonna be a free agent, and sure could they

553
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: bring one of those guys back. I doubt they bring

554
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 3: both of them back. Matthew Golden being okay but not

555
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 3: amazing in his rookie season, So even if they felt

556
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 3: amazing about him, do you feel good enough to be like, Okay,

557
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 3: if we don't bring Watson and read back that we're

558
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 3: going to like Matthew Golden's going to be our de

559
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 3: facto wide receiver one walking into next offseason with also

560
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 3: a thin depth chart behind him like bow Melton, sky Moore, No,

561
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 3: thank you. So looking at the constitution of this depth

562
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 3: chart and their first pick now is in round two

563
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 3: at fifty second overall, Well, this is also a team,

564
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 3: Like would any of us be surprised if at that

565
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 3: second round they traded back a little bit further and

566
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 3: grabbing more equity, whether this is more twenty twenty six

567
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 3: equity or twenty seven equity. I wouldn't be shocked about

568
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 3: that either. But this all comes down to, like with

569
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 3: the fit, like, can you make a case for other

570
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 3: spots in this depth chart for the Packers? Absolutely you can.

571
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 3: You can also make a case for a wide receiver

572
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 3: and it's not being baked into like considering the constitution

573
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 3: of their depth chart seth like this should be like

574
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 3: a plus four hundred type of bet and you're getting

575
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 3: it at a plus nine hundred.

576
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,479
Speaker 1: Definitely feels like some value there, particularly after we did

577
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 1: nice you know us versus the consensus pros versus the

578
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: consensus mock draft with our buddy Brett White feel from

579
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: Fantasy Points over there, and he actually had Chris Bell

580
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: going as a first round pick. So maybe someone like

581
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 1: Chris Bell, you know, coming off that ACL injury, falls

582
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: to the Packers in the second round. Maybe they go

583
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: after a guy who's ready made for the next level

584
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 1: in Elijah Surratt. So I think there's a ton of

585
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: outs there for you. So I like that pick quite

586
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: a bit. And for me, last long shot kind of

587
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: plays off your bet that you placed earlier team to

588
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,239
Speaker 1: draft Jordan Tyson, Kansas City Baby plus five seventy two.

589
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 2: I'm a half a.

590
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: Unit down on this one, and like I really think

591
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: due to injuries, Derek, Like last year, we had a

592
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 1: couple really polarizing players at the top of the board.

593
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 2: One of them was Tedero McMillan.

594
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: I think Arizona State Sun Devil's wide receiver, Jordan Tyson,

595
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: he's become that right, and I'm just not buying that

596
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: he's gonna fall that far because I think he's the

597
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 1: best technician in this draft class. I think he's done

598
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: it every step the way. He's just twenty one years

599
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: old and Rashie rice Man, this guy's on the end

600
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 1: of his rookie deal. He continues to be involved in

601
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 1: alleged offfield incidents.

602
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 2: Is that who you want to pay?

603
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,479
Speaker 1: They have Xavier Worthy, who they know they're running out

604
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 1: of the flanker right now, twenty twenty four first round pick,

605
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: but he's not an X wide receiver and that leaves

606
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 1: Taekwon Thornton Man set a career high four hundred and

607
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 1: thirty eight receiving guards in fourteen games last season, as

608
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 1: that X receiver had some big deep shots from Patty Momes.

609
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: The issue is only caught fifty one point four percent

610
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: of his target. So for me, I think this is

611
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 1: the biggest immedia upgrade that general manager Brett Beach can make.

612
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: And I just think they're gonna go ahead and do

613
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 1: it here. So if you believe in this as well,

614
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 1: drafting them getting Tyson here with their first pick plus

615
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: five seventy three, So Jordan Tyson to the chief, sign

616
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: me up here, Derek, and it would parlay right off

617
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: your one bet for them as well.

618
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 3: Love it, dude, absolutely love it.

619
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, we're.

620
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 1: Gonna get out of here on that go ahead, though,

621
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Speaker 1: on the Betting Pros podcast. Thank you so much for watching.

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Speaker 1: Please do us a quick favor, and before you go,

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Speaker 1: don't forget to subscribe for whichever audio podcast feed you're listening,

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for watching. For Derek Brown, I'm

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Speaker 2: set take care of y'all.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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