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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Tuesday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Parrett.

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Speaker 1: Here on Betting pros dot com. Always being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet MGM. The offer right above me here

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Speaker 1: on YouTube ten dollars bet doing one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars on any event using that promo Cojuice one fifty

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Speaker 1: betmgym or betemgm dot com. You find this video on

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Speaker 1: YouTube and the audio wherever you get your audio podcasts now.

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Speaker 1: Last night, well, I was nervous about that Saints bet.

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Speaker 1: That's why I only bet a half a unit on it.

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Speaker 1: I thought four points might be a little bit too heavy,

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Speaker 1: and it was Saints win by three. Good for our

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Speaker 1: over nine and a half win. Saints are now four

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Speaker 1: and two. Tough schedule coming up, but hey, they went

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Speaker 1: on the road and a win's a win. And they're

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Speaker 1: now four and two and they haven't really played that

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Speaker 1: much of a home field advantage game yet due to

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Speaker 1: what happened early in the season. So they'll go back home,

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Speaker 1: have a couple of home games and maybe have a chance

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Speaker 1: to get you know, six to seven wins going towards

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Speaker 1: the second half of the season. So four and two

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Speaker 1: is not bad for the New Orleans Saints. Got a

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Speaker 1: big game coming up against the Buccaneers, but for right now,

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Speaker 1: I'll take the four and two win. Unfortunately, the half

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Speaker 1: of unit bet does not come in. The Atlanta Hawks

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Speaker 1: crush and win easily in their game, laying ten and

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Speaker 1: a half points. We like that they won that game

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Speaker 1: by I think seventeen eighteen points last night, so Atlanta

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Speaker 1: kept getting a nice big win for us there tonight.

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Speaker 1: So we have a baseball bet for you, a World

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Speaker 1: Series Series bet for you today, and we're gonna go

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Speaker 1: and take one NBA bet for us here today as well,

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a lighter day. It's a Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: so we're just gonna kind of roll our way through here.

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Speaker 1: At the time of taping, the Clippers game is still

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Speaker 1: going on, so we're one and one on the day.

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Speaker 1: Don't know what about the Clippers game yet, but we'll

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Speaker 1: see how that total winds up. It could be a

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Speaker 1: two and one or a one and two day one

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Speaker 1: of the two. So lighter day on Monday, lighter day

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, we'll get more heavily involved on Wednesday, more

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Speaker 1: heavily involved coming up here on Thursday and Friday as

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Speaker 1: we head towards the weekend. So let's start with baseball

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Speaker 1: game number one. Charlie Morton going to the hill for

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Speaker 1: the Braves on the road against the Astros in Game

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Speaker 1: one of the World Series against Framberg Valdez. And so

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Speaker 1: here's an interesting matchup between two teams that, well, I

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Speaker 1: the Astros are the better team. Let's just go ahead

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Speaker 1: and establish that right now. And there's no different there's

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Speaker 1: no debating here that they're the better team. And I

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Speaker 1: think we just have to accept that that Framber Valdez

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Speaker 1: is going to the mound after shutting down the Red

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Speaker 1: Sox and pitching eight innings in his last start, but

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Speaker 1: he hadn't been great before that before that starts. So

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox bache Ice cold, Framber was great, the

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Speaker 1: curve ball was working, the left handed pitcher was just

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Speaker 1: dominant for the Astros. Charlie Morton's a veteran pitcher and

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Speaker 1: he's been in these spots before when he's with the Rays.

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Speaker 1: He's pitched very well in key moments here. This is

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Speaker 1: a guy who used to be Houston Astros, so there'll

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Speaker 1: be some familiarity on both sides. They know him and

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Speaker 1: he knows them, so I don't think there's really an

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Speaker 1: advantage to be gained for that. In last year's ALCS,

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Speaker 1: Charlie Morton through ten and two thirds scoreless innings in

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Speaker 1: two starts against Houston, with the Braves winning both games,

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Speaker 1: and I got plus money here. I got plus one

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Speaker 1: twenty two on the Atlanta Braves coming up in game

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Speaker 1: number one, And if I'm getting plus odds on, I

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Speaker 1: think it's more of a coin flip than people think. Yeah, Okay,

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Speaker 1: the Astros lineup got red hot at the end of

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Speaker 1: the series against Boston, but in the beginning of the series,

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Speaker 1: when the Red Sox had their pitchers at full strength,

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Speaker 1: the Astros didn't do very much. And the Braves have

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Speaker 1: better pitching, they have a better bullpen, and they have

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Speaker 1: better pitching overall than the Red Sox. I think the

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Speaker 1: Braves are a little bit undervalued here in this series,

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Speaker 1: in particular in Game one with Charlie Morton going to

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Speaker 1: the mound here. So what I'm gonna do here is this, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm taking the Braves to win Game one for a

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Speaker 1: half a unit at plus one twenty two. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take the team that I think is a little bit hotter,

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Speaker 1: been getting the key hits and has the better pitching

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Speaker 1: overall the Astros. The Red Sox pounded that bullpen, and

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Speaker 1: they pounded the Astros until their bats just went completely silent.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Braves are going to have that

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Speaker 1: happen because I don't think the Braves are going to

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Speaker 1: score fourteen runs in a game like the Red Sox did.

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Speaker 1: I think this Atlanta team needs to score five or

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Speaker 1: six runs and they're gonna win most games five two, five, three,

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Speaker 1: somewhere in that range. Eight and a half is the total.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind playing the under in this game, but

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Speaker 1: in that ballpark in Houston at minute made I'm not

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Speaker 1: playing an under in that ballpark, just given what we

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Speaker 1: could see from a scoring perspective. But I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: take the Braves here to win Game one, to get

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Speaker 1: Charlie Morton to go six seven innings. I'm iballing his

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Speaker 1: strikeout prop and A'm I balling the Valdez strikeout prop

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Speaker 1: as well. Both those props are four and a half strikeouts,

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Speaker 1: and I think you could get like five and a

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Speaker 1: half of plus money, and I don't know. I may

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Speaker 1: be on that with a as we get closer to

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Speaker 1: to game time, I may be on that, But just

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Speaker 1: the first bet for the podcast, I'm taking the Atlanta

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Speaker 1: Braves at plus money. I'm not saying Houston's not the

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Speaker 1: better team, but I think from a starting pitcher perspective,

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Speaker 1: I like Charlie Morton here more than I like Bramber Valdez.

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Speaker 1: And you can say why I bet the first five here,

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Speaker 1: Matt take the plus money and go go first five. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: you could do that, but I'm just gonna say, just

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Speaker 1: in case that Astro's bullpen becomes suspect and Valdez is

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Speaker 1: really good, he comes out of the game five six

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Speaker 1: innings and Atlanta goes to work here on the bullpen.

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Speaker 1: So I don't like the the Houston Astros bullpen, but

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Speaker 1: Valdez has been a very good pitcher for them here

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Speaker 1: in this series. So just in case Valdez is really

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Speaker 1: good again and it's like a two to one game

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Speaker 1: when he leaves and the Braves can get a win

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Speaker 1: in the six or seventh or eighth inning against the bullpen,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Braves Game one for a half a

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Speaker 1: unit at plus one twenty two today, take Charlie Morton

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Speaker 1: to win Game one at plus money against Atlanta. Now

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Speaker 1: for the World Series, Houston again is the better team. Okay,

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Speaker 1: definitely the better team, but their mine's one forty. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think there's a way of playing this here. And

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Speaker 1: let's just say I'm right about the Braves getting game one. Well,

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Speaker 1: if the Braves get Game one, they're not gonna be

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Speaker 1: plus one twenty anymore. Okay, they'll probably be even money

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Speaker 1: or maybe even laying juice. Okay, if they go up

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Speaker 1: two to oh, you got the Astros coming back at

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Speaker 1: plus money for sure. Okay, So the first bet, and

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be kind of a strategy here, I

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Speaker 1: might make multiple bets. I did this in the World

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Speaker 1: Series last year. If you guys remember with the daily

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Speaker 1: Juice back in the World Series, we did this before

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Speaker 1: where we kind of ping ponged around. You bet the

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Speaker 1: plus money early, you hope for a Game one win

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Speaker 1: by the dog. The numbers then flip around and you

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Speaker 1: can get plus money on the Astros. And then we're

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Speaker 1: sitting with two tickets and we're basically knowing we're gonna

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Speaker 1: cash and we're gonna make money. Okay, So my world

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Speaker 1: Series bet here, I'm taking the Atlanta Braves to win

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Speaker 1: the World Series at plus one twenty for one unit, Okay,

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Speaker 1: putting our flag down one unit Braves to win the

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Speaker 1: World Series. That's not to say I think that they

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Speaker 1: win the World Series per se. I think there's a

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Speaker 1: good chance they win the World Series, and at plus

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Speaker 1: money it's worth it. But I also think there's a

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Speaker 1: chance for the Braves to win Game one, like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: and then we have a chance for the Braves potentially

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Speaker 1: to be the favorite, and if that happens, we come

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Speaker 1: back with a bet on the Astros and we try

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Speaker 1: to get ourselves into a middle situation where it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter who wins the series. We're on plus money on

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Speaker 1: both sides. Whoever wins, we win money. Okay, So that's

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Speaker 1: the goal here for how we're going to play this.

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Speaker 1: And maybe if just the Braves win Game one, Braves

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Speaker 1: win Game two, and who knows how it goes, But

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Speaker 1: that's how I'm playing it, Okay, for one full unit

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Speaker 1: Atlanta to win the World Series at plus one twenty right,

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Speaker 1: So Braves Game one and we're going happy unit there

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Speaker 1: at plus one twenty two. Taking Charlie Morton to win

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Speaker 1: the game for the Atlanta Braves on the road to

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Speaker 1: shut down that crowd at Minte made parking quiet, everybody.

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Speaker 1: And we're taking the Braves to win the World Series

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Speaker 1: at plus one twenty for one full unit, knowing that

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Speaker 1: there could be a hedge opportunity at some point in

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Speaker 1: this series as well. So that's how I'm playing the

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Speaker 1: World Series. And that's till I'm playing game number one. Now.

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Speaker 1: That leaves a half a unit out there for us

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and jump on it. And let's look

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Speaker 1: at and I'm gonna I'm gonna ride the Warriors early here.

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Speaker 1: The Warriors are on the road at Oklahoma City. They're

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Speaker 1: laying nine points to OKAC two to one against the number.

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Speaker 1: For Golden State so far this year three to ozho

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Speaker 1: eight straight up Oklahoma City's oh and three straight up

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Speaker 1: oh and three against the number. The Warriors are scoring

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighteen point three points per game, that

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Speaker 1: is six best in the NBA. They're also averaging seventeen

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Speaker 1: points on the fast break per game, which is really good.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to score in the fast break against Oklahoma City.

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Speaker 1: They're only giving up five point seven points per game

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Speaker 1: in transition. That's pretty good. But on the other side,

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Speaker 1: three point shooting and opposing field goal percentage not great. Okay.

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Speaker 1: Effective field goal percentage for Golden State fifty four point two,

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Speaker 1: that's ninth best in the NBA so far. Okay, see

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Speaker 1: giving up fifty five point eight that is twenty six

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Speaker 1: in the NBA right now, good defensive number for them.

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Speaker 1: They're giving up one hundred and fifteen point three points

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Speaker 1: per game that is nineteenth best in the NBA. That

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Speaker 1: is not what you want to go ahead and see.

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Speaker 1: And they're giving up easy baskets points in the paint

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Speaker 1: for the Warriors forty eight point seven exact same number

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Speaker 1: forty eight point seven given up for OKC. That's not

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Speaker 1: the types of numbers that you want to be seeing here.

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Speaker 1: And three point percentage, as you know with the Warriors,

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Speaker 1: thirty nine point three percent three point shooting thirty eight

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Speaker 1: percent given up by Oklahma City that is twenty fourth

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Speaker 1: best in the NBA, near the bottom of the league.

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Speaker 1: Stopping three point shooting not what you want to see.

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Speaker 1: Shooting efficiency one point one four five that's seventh best

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Speaker 1: for Golden State. One point one five to four given up.

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Speaker 1: That's twenty seventh for Ocloma City. Their defense is just

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Speaker 1: not good at all here early they're giving up sixteen

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Speaker 1: made three pointers per game Like that is uh uh

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Speaker 1: you you just can't do that. You can't allow three

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Speaker 1: point shots to be open. When it's the Golden State

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Speaker 1: Warriors and Steph Curry and we've might be eyeballing made

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Speaker 1: three pointers by Steph Curry tonight in a prop bet.

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Speaker 1: So we'll watch that. We may be very well involved

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Speaker 1: here later in this game as we get closer to

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Speaker 1: tip time. But Golden State's minus nine. I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 1: the minus nine here with the Golden State Warriors. We

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Speaker 1: laid ten points with the Hawks last night. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: lay the nine points here with Golden State. The Hawks

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Speaker 1: were at home. I know a little bit of an

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Speaker 1: easier sell with the Hawks. That number closed at twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half for them at home against the Detroit Pistons.

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Speaker 1: This is another bad team, good team versus a bad team,

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Speaker 1: but it's a road team. This time around is the

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Speaker 1: games at Oklahoma City. But I just don't think this

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Speaker 1: Okay See team's any good. Their average scoring margin already

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Speaker 1: through three games is minus twenty two, which is awful.

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Speaker 1: Not what you want to see by any means. And

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Speaker 1: they just aren't scoring enough. They're effective field goal percentage

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Speaker 1: forty six point one that is twenty seventh best in

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Speaker 1: the NBA. They're not hitting their three points shots, don't

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Speaker 1: have her a lot. They's only hitting nine point seven

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Speaker 1: threes per game. Now the Warriors are giving up fourteen

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Speaker 1: point seven, but that might be more of who they've

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Speaker 1: played than what they're gonna see here from Oklahoma City.

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Speaker 1: Just not a lot of talent here for the Thunder,

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Speaker 1: and they're young, they're not that experience, and I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna get killed here by the Golden State Warriors.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay under the double digits ten point or

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Speaker 1: more win for Golden State on the road at okac

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Speaker 1: half a unit Warriors minus nine on the road against

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Speaker 1: the Thunder. We're gonna lay it here with Steph Curry

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Speaker 1: and company. Look to them to move to four and

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Speaker 1: oh to start the year and a really good start

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Speaker 1: for our win total at forty seven and a half

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Speaker 1: for the Golden State Warriors. That was my favorite bet

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Speaker 1: coming into the year. I really like the Warriors a

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Speaker 1: lot this year. I'm gonna keep riding them uh more

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Speaker 1: two and oh so far betting on Warrior games so

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Speaker 1: far this year, and we're gonna copfully go to three

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Speaker 1: and oh here betting on Warrior games coming up for

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Speaker 1: them against OKAC laying nine on the road at the

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Speaker 1: Thunder Okay so Braves game one money line at plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty two for a half a unit Warriors minus

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Speaker 1: nine for a half of units here on the road

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Speaker 1: in the NBA Mice one ten and the Braves to

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Speaker 1: win the World Series for one units at plus one

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Speaker 1: twenty for the plays for a Tuesday with some prop

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Speaker 1: bets to come. I apologize about not getting the prop

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Speaker 1: bets out yesterday, which really fun you guys. A couple

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Speaker 1: of you shared tickets where you took John Collins over

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Speaker 1: fifteen and a half points and Pat Connington over one

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Speaker 1: and a half, made threes. One person parlayed them both

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Speaker 1: together for twenty five bucks to win seventy five bucks,

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Speaker 1: which I love. That's great. Congratulations on that hit. So

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Speaker 1: I didn't even need to give you guys the props.

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Speaker 1: I mean you where I I would have gone. I

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Speaker 1: would have bet those two props. John Collins scored twenty

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Speaker 1: two points last night. Pat Conyon hit three points last night,

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Speaker 1: so like, yeah, I mean, that's just going to be

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Speaker 1: kind of a consistent thing. They hit a lot, and

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Speaker 1: until the books adjust with John Collins and start raising

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Speaker 1: up his props to like seventeen eighteen points, then we'll

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Speaker 1: bet the under. Or they start going to two and

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Speaker 1: a half made threes for Pat Connington, then we'll go

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Speaker 1: to the under. As long as they keep on putting

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Speaker 1: up one and a half made threes for Connington and

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Speaker 1: over twenty over fifteen and a half points for John Collins,

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Speaker 1: we'll keep on knocking those things down and betting those

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Speaker 1: things when the are playing and when the Bucks are playing.

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Speaker 1: So two bets. I do like a lot in the

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Speaker 1: prop bet market. That's been pretty consistent and pretty good

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Speaker 1: to knock down and hit. And you guys did do that,

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Speaker 1: So some of you just did it on your own,

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Speaker 1: and that's good. I've kind of convinced you guys had

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Speaker 1: trained you guys to go ahead and do that. That's

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Speaker 1: very cool. And somebody also brought this up saying, how

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Speaker 1: did I not bring up the Teresa Parolt parlay which

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Speaker 1: happened on Sunday, And that is a first. My wife

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Speaker 1: is now involved in gambling, So my wife put a

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Speaker 1: half a unit, No, it was a full unit. What

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Speaker 1: was it now? It was fifty bucks. So my wife

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Speaker 1: put fifty bucks down on a plus one sixty eight

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Speaker 1: parlay for the Raiders, the Bucks and the Patriots three

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Speaker 1: leg moneyline parlay on Sunday. All three hit. So my

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Speaker 1: wife came in and hit her first bet. So she's

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Speaker 1: one to know now on the Teresa Paroltz parlay and

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Speaker 1: we'll post that for fun every week. I'm not helping her.

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Speaker 1: I just said, what do you want to bet? And

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Speaker 1: she said, I want to bet the Raiders to win,

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Speaker 1: the Patriots to win, and the Bucks to win. So

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Speaker 1: Brady Patriots and the hometown rate his hometown Homer parlay

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Speaker 1: came through in cash. So we'll do that every Sunday,

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Speaker 1: the Trees of parolt Parlay. Thank you for bringing that

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Speaker 1: to my attention. That did not bring that up last

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Speaker 1: night on the podcast. So here we go. Let's go

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Speaker 1: with the stories of parult My wife's parlay three and

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Speaker 1: oh or three and O the wins or one to

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Speaker 1: Know so far on the parlay for her at plus

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Speaker 1: one sixty eight odds on a money line parlay. So

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Speaker 1: that came into that cash, So we'll watch that every

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Speaker 1: Sunday for her coming up again, The Plays Braves money

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Speaker 1: Line Warriors miss nine Braves to win the World Series.

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Speaker 1: Mine's Matt Paroult. Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Each and every morning, it's the Daily Juice podcast right

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Speaker 1: here on bettingpros dot com