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Speaker 2: All right, I predicted last week the league would have

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Speaker 2: a separation. Best quarterbacks would win Week six going forward

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Speaker 2: in most cases, and the best quarterbacks last week went

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Speaker 2: fourteen and er I went three and one on my picks.

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Speaker 2: I had the Jets with the points, but the Bills winning.

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Speaker 2: I just needed the Jets to make an occasional field goal.

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Speaker 2: Is that too much to ask? The Action Network CEO

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Speaker 2: Chad Milman, my friend. All odds provided by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I always feel like defensive players get hurt statistically more

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Speaker 2: often than offensive players. That's where more the violences. Defenses

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Speaker 2: get weaker over time. Quarterbacks pull away from the league,

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Speaker 2: and once again, I think this is the second strongest

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Speaker 2: week I think I've seen so far this year, so

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Speaker 2: I'm excited about this. I think there's clear distinction in

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Speaker 2: some of these games, and as you know, I don't

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Speaker 2: have to like a team to like them for a week.

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Speaker 2: I don't like the Jaguars, but I think the staff

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Speaker 2: is fighting for its life. It's also number five. You

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Speaker 2: know I'm into number five. I'm sorry, I know sevens.

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Speaker 2: The lucky number five is mine a team that regularly

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Speaker 2: plays in London, a New England team that's limited and

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Speaker 2: actually Trevor Lawrence has not played poorly the last couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks. If it's five, I take the favorite. Last

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Speaker 2: week four and five the Packers was my favorite bet.

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Speaker 2: The game was over eight minutes in probably not sharp,

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Speaker 2: but I love it. Sharper square.

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Speaker 1: I feel like you're playing some kind of game of

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Speaker 1: numerology and an astrolig and like I don't like don't

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Speaker 1: I don't like bad quarterbacks. I like good quarterbacks. I

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Speaker 1: like the number five. I don't sign don't like the

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Speaker 1: number seven when the zodiac sign says mercury. Because in retrograde,

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Speaker 1: I'm definitely going with the team from Jacksonville. If they're

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Speaker 1: playing in London. Yes, this actually is the sharp side,

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Speaker 1: and it's because some of what you said, but it's

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Speaker 1: also the Jags have been in London favorite historically. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: thirty five and ten in London, I mean the just

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Speaker 1: winning outright, thirty five and ten in London, some like

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Speaker 1: thirty and fifteen against the spread. It's like it's the

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Speaker 1: right side. It's the nominally better team in a more

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Speaker 1: desperate situation. So yes, it's I mean most wise, guys

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Speaker 1: are like, I'm not really planning I even watching this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to sleep in. But if they're gonna bet,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna bet the Jaguars. You just the Jets. And

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Speaker 1: it made me think of a funny story because that

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Speaker 1: game was so disgusting. The night before the game, if

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Speaker 1: you were betting the Giants at plus three and a half,

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Speaker 1: was also terrible because they were winning. They had won

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Speaker 1: that game like they were the better team. They had

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Speaker 1: Stemy Joe Burrow, they missed field goals. At the end

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Speaker 1: of the game. It was clear they were going to

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Speaker 1: lose because something funky was going to happen. The Bengals

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Speaker 1: weren't just going to lay down at ten to seven.

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Speaker 1: They were going to do something that sort of recapped

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Speaker 1: the Giants. I'm watching this game, and I feel like

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Speaker 1: you'll appreciate this. It's eleven o'clock at night. I'm watching

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Speaker 1: the game in bed. My wife is sent me, sleeping

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Speaker 1: next to me, and she starts she says something to me,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, I can't understand what you're saying. What

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Speaker 1: are you saying? And she starts talking to me about

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Speaker 1: something that has nothing to do with anything, that is

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Speaker 1: a total non sequit or to the day, the weekend, everything,

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Speaker 1: And I go, I can we just not talk about

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Speaker 1: this right now, like we don't need to have this

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Speaker 1: conversation in this second. She goes, that's fine. I understand.

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Speaker 1: My feeling right now is you're probably going to lose

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Speaker 1: this game and you're going to wake up in the

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Speaker 1: morning and people are on Twitter. I'm just going to

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Speaker 1: tell you you're stupid. And then she rolled over and

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Speaker 1: she went back to bed. That's what they do, by

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Speaker 1: the way. She was right, Yeah, I felt like you

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Speaker 1: would appreciate every single element to that.

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Speaker 2: So that was one of my blazing five picks, and

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Speaker 2: for the first or second time in my career, I

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Speaker 2: pulled it off. The blazing five, when Malik Neighbors was

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Speaker 2: not available, I pulled it out. I almost inserted the Bears.

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Speaker 2: My staff knew I loved that game. I didn't, so

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Speaker 2: I finished three and one. Here's my favorite pick of

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Speaker 2: the week, and it again. You I have a rule.

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Speaker 2: When a good team plays a perfect game and it's

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Speaker 2: the game of the week and it's flawless pro college,

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Speaker 2: you don't duplicate that. We've seen that multiple times this year.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota off of by Detroit off the perfect football game,

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Speaker 2: No thank you. I'll lay the points Vikings now minus

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Speaker 2: one one and a half sharper square.

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Speaker 1: So it's square. What's really interesting here is and you

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Speaker 1: know me and me and my co host Salmon Hunter

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Speaker 1: talked about this on the Favorites. He's a professional better

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Speaker 1: and a lot of times what professional betters do, they

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Speaker 1: will manipulate the market. So this game was at Minnesota

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Speaker 1: minus one, minus one and a half or during the

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Speaker 1: week it went up to two, it went up to

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Speaker 1: two and a half, and then as soon as it

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Speaker 1: got to two and a half, the professional betters started

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Speaker 1: betting Detroit again. It went back down to two, it

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Speaker 1: went back down to one and a half. So there's

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Speaker 1: a philosophy. There's a theory right now that the professional

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Speaker 1: betters early in the week were betting small amounts of

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Speaker 1: money to bet this game up a little bit so

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Speaker 1: they could come in later in the week when the

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Speaker 1: books take bigger dollar amounts and bet the Detroit Lions

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Speaker 1: much much heavier. Right, The Lions, to me, are the

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Speaker 1: right side. I think there's a difference between teams that

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Speaker 1: are playing perfect games and teams that are fundamentally as

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Speaker 1: close to perf as you can get. And I like

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Speaker 1: to bet looking inside out. I like to bet offensive

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Speaker 1: line first, and the offensive line for the Detroit Lions

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Speaker 1: is just dominant. They are. And I think the past

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Speaker 1: few weeks, and we talked about this last week with

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Speaker 1: the Lions and the Cowboys, they have figured out how

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Speaker 1: to play physical, violent football. They've gotten out of the

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Speaker 1: way of sort of trying to figure out if Jared

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Speaker 1: Goff going to win its the game. No, the offensive

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Speaker 1: line is going to wins the game. Running the ball

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Speaker 1: is going to win us the game. Jared Goff will

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Speaker 1: then perform off of those situations that we have set

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Speaker 1: up for him. So offensively, I think this is a

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Speaker 1: much better team. And I do think Jared Goff and

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Speaker 1: Ben Johnson will know how to scheme against Brian Flores,

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Speaker 1: whose defense has been great, and the offensive line will

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Speaker 1: protect against the pass rush that Flores has been great

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Speaker 1: at generating. The worst unit on this field is going

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Speaker 1: to be the Vikings offense. So if there is any

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Speaker 1: diminished performance from the Lions because of Aden Hutchinson, I

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Speaker 1: do think it's somewhat mitigated by the fact they're not

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Speaker 1: playing a lights out offense and we're all looking to

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Speaker 1: sell the Vikings. We're trying to figure it out, right,

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Speaker 1: when are we going to sell the Vikings? A lot

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Speaker 1: of wise guys think this is the week.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I on Monday on the Herd on FS one

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Speaker 2: and iHeartRadio, I said I'm taking the Rams at five.

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Speaker 2: The line will move up dramatically. It's the rare mistake

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Speaker 2: by Vegas McVeigh Stafford off of buy. They're getting healthier.

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Speaker 2: The Raiders made a true trade for getting rid of

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Speaker 2: Devonte Adams, so it makes it even tastier. But I

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Speaker 2: think Devonte Adams leaving sends a real message. The Max

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Speaker 2: Crosby rumors don't help. They're saying he won't be traded.

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Speaker 2: But it's not a great locker room right now, and

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Speaker 2: the Raiders are not a team that needs to win

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Speaker 2: because they're not going to. It's a distracted team with

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Speaker 2: bad mojo. The Rams now need to go on a street.

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Speaker 2: They're healthier, better coach, better quarterback. In fact, it's the

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Speaker 2: biggest coach quarterback mismatch on the board this week. I

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Speaker 2: have it at minus five sharper square.

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Speaker 1: If you have it at five, that is incredible and

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Speaker 1: it's sharp, and you should hold on to that like

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Speaker 1: it's a cuddly teddy bear, because that line does not

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Speaker 1: exist like it's at six and a half in most places.

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Speaker 1: So if you can get a five, or if you

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Speaker 1: have a five, if you can book a five, take

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Speaker 1: the five at six and a half. It's not a

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Speaker 1: number that I would want to really lean into for

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Speaker 1: the Rams. The truth is, if at six and a half,

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Speaker 1: I might even lean Raiders. I agree with you about

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Speaker 1: Stafford and McVeigh. Nobody really trusts Aidan O'Connell. But the

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Speaker 1: line bumped up for two reasons. One expectation that Cooper

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Speaker 1: Cup might come back. They did think he could come

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Speaker 1: back in week seven, and because the Raiders got blown

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Speaker 1: out by the Steelers. But if you look at that

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Speaker 1: box score, that game was close. It was seven to

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Speaker 1: six at the end of the first half. It was

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Speaker 1: twelve seven when and then three consecutive series is fluky.

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Speaker 1: Things happened to give the Steelers a huge lead, and

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Speaker 1: even then the Raiders had opportunities to come back, and

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Speaker 1: they were called back for penalties. They fumbled on the

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Speaker 1: one yard line after they had scored a touchdown that

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Speaker 1: was called back. So the game was closer than the

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Speaker 1: score of peer. So I think six and a half

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Speaker 1: is too much. Seattle plus a field goal and Atlanta

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Speaker 1: is interesting. The Seahawks are getting healthy. I know you

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Speaker 1: have a luck rating, and the Saints were called unlucky.

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Speaker 1: I do think Atlanta's had a few breaks go their

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Speaker 1: way and they're a tad overvalued. I think they win

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Speaker 1: their division, but I actually think even the game against

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay that they won in overtime, I kind of

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Speaker 1: felt most of the game Tampa was better and has

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Speaker 1: a higher ceiling. I kind of like Seattle in the spot.

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Speaker 1: They've been a funky mess defensively and you think they're

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Speaker 1: not very good. Now they're finally getting their best defenders

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Speaker 1: back and Gino Smith. Atlanta has no pass rush. They

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Speaker 1: have really good receivers. I like Seattle in the points

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Speaker 1: sharper square ish at two and a half, the wise

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Speaker 1: guys are playing the Falcons. At three, they might play Seattle,

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Speaker 1: they won't play Atlanta. They were kind of hoping it

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Speaker 1: would get to three and a half so they could

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Speaker 1: play Atlanta if they like Seattle. It's because of everything

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Speaker 1: you just said to getting a little bit healthier. Atlanta

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Speaker 1: can generate a pass rush. The Falcons could just as

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Speaker 1: easily be zero to six right now, right And we

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Speaker 1: talked about this last week. The games they have won.

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Speaker 1: Three games that they won, they had a five percent

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Speaker 1: chance to win those games, sometimes with less than thirty

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Speaker 1: seconds left, and they still won those games. So there

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Speaker 1: has been a lot of sort of luck involved in

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Speaker 1: their season so far. So that is due. They are

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Speaker 1: due for aggression there, even last week against the Panthers,

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Speaker 1: like until Andy Dalton threw that pick yes right into

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Speaker 1: his territory and then the Falcons went on an e

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Speaker 1: four yard drive. The Panthers were running all over them,

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Speaker 1: and they had a chance to be very close in

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Speaker 1: that game, if not win it out right, So it's

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Speaker 1: a it's a This is a number play entirely two

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Speaker 1: and a half Atlanta three or more Seattle Okay.

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Speaker 2: One of my favorite bets of the week, and it

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Speaker 2: was before Devonte Adams. I'll take the Jets minus one

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Speaker 2: and a half. The Steelers are a mess. They don't

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Speaker 2: even know who their quarterback is. I think the Jets

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Speaker 2: are an excellent two and four team if they could

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Speaker 2: kick field goals.

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Speaker 1: Think about this.

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Speaker 2: If it wasn't for Taylor rap making two remarkable plays

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Speaker 2: at safety jarring the ball loose, and if it wasn't

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Speaker 2: for Tarron Johnson making honestly and ed Reid level interception

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Speaker 2: like one of the great plays of the year, Jets

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Speaker 2: win that game. Aaron played well, they ran the ball.

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Speaker 2: They had seventy two percent motion twenty five percent with

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Speaker 2: Mat Hackett the week before. I think the Jets are

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Speaker 2: a really really un valued two four team. Their high

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Speaker 2: profile the game is stand alone. You think they're no good.

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Speaker 2: They really should have beaten the Bills. Sharper square totally sharp.

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Speaker 2: They like it for everything you just said. The reason

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Speaker 2: they really like it.

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Speaker 1: Is because the indications are Russell Wilson will be the

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Speaker 1: starting quarterback and you can't find anybody who really understands

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Speaker 1: the logic in that call, unless it's just Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 1: living up to a promise that he gave to Russell

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Speaker 1: Wilson that he would be a starting quarterback, he really

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be. And now you're getting Russell Wilson at a

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Speaker 1: time where they've already lost their right guard, James Daniels,

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Speaker 1: who was graded as the best guard in the NFL

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Speaker 1: before his achilles was injured, and then last week they

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Speaker 1: lost Zach Fraser, who was greater as the fourth best

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Speaker 1: center according to Pro Football Focus in the NFL, which

264
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Speaker 1: is one of the reasons why their running game had

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Speaker 1: been so powerful and they could get away with justin

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Speaker 1: fields not being very good. So now you're getting rid

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Speaker 1: of two of the best offensive linemen in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: That is the strength of your team, and you're putting

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Speaker 1: in a quarterback who is not nearly as mobile, yet

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Speaker 1: he's going to have more pressure because the strength of

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Speaker 1: the Jets defense is the interior of their defensive line.

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Speaker 1: So forget about Aaron Rodgers, forget about DeVante Adams. The

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Speaker 1: reason why professional betters are leaning the Jets is because

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Speaker 1: of those interior factors. And again those are the things

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Speaker 1: that don't get as discussed in sort of the larger platforms.

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Speaker 1: But that's what the betters are looking at. It's what's

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Speaker 1: happening at the center of the Steelers line and who

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Speaker 1: the quarterback is going to be much more than Devanta Adams.

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Speaker 1: And you've seen this number go up even though the

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Speaker 1: majority of the bets have actually come in on the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: but the money the professionals have come in on the Jets.

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Speaker 2: So I never bet against Lamar Jackson in the NFC,

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Speaker 2: but at three and a half points, I do like

284
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Speaker 2: Tampa at home. I think Tampa may be the most

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Speaker 2: underrated team in the league. I mean Baker Mayfield, he'll

286
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Speaker 2: give Little Wiggle fourteen of us fifteen touchdowns from the pocket.

287
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Speaker 2: He and Chris Godwin are humming. They have a three

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Speaker 2: pronged run game, Tucker, Bucky, Irving White like three legitimate

289
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Speaker 2: running backs. And that is a team that even in

290
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Speaker 2: games they've lost, you look up and think, oh, this

291
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Speaker 2: this is probably the better team. If I get the hook,

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Speaker 2: I'm taking Tampa here. Also, Ravens have been back to

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Speaker 2: back very emotional games. I think you know they always

294
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Speaker 2: beat the NFC, but sharper square, I'd go I'd go

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Speaker 2: the hook in Tampa.

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Speaker 1: One hundred percent sharp and this was this line opened

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Speaker 1: at four and a half. What's really interesting is you

298
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Speaker 1: talked about sort of the performance of the public last

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Speaker 1: week by saying, betting on the better quarterback. Right, last week,

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Speaker 1: the public went ten three and one. The public in

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Speaker 1: the five weeks prior had had the worst start of

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Speaker 1: the season it had ever had. And just for clarity,

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Speaker 1: when I talk about the public, I mean amateur betters

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Speaker 1: who tend to bet favorites and tend to bet the

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Speaker 1: favorites to cover. Right, So you're talking about teams like

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Speaker 1: the Ravens or the Chiefs or you know, in this

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Speaker 1: case last week, the Lions. Normally the public does not win.

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Speaker 1: So the public is all over the Ravens this week.

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Speaker 1: And when that happens, bookmakers, when the public really cashes in,

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Speaker 1: bookmakers know amateur betters are fat and happy. They're going

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Speaker 1: to take the money they won the week before. They

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Speaker 1: are going to go to the sports book. They are

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Speaker 1: going to bet the favorites again because hey, I just

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Speaker 1: want how hard can this be? I just won betting

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Speaker 1: the Ravens to win by a touchdown against the Commanders,

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Speaker 1: and they did it. So now they're going to come

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Speaker 1: back and you can see, like the Bucks game, it

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Speaker 1: opened at four and a half, it immediately got that

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Speaker 1: down to three and a half. That's because the wise

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Speaker 1: guys came in on the Bucks and they still like

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Speaker 1: the Bucks. Baker's the key here. What Baker can do

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Speaker 1: thrown across the middle to god Win and Mike Evans

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Speaker 1: hope because he did have a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: soft tissue injury and so there is some concern he

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Speaker 1: might not play, but assuming he will, what Baker can

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Speaker 1: do across the field in middle of the field against

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Speaker 1: a coverage unit in the Ravens that is bottom third

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Speaker 1: in the league and a pass defense that is giving

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Speaker 1: up the second most passing yards per game in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: The only team horse is the Jaguars. This is a

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Speaker 1: recipe for Baker to keep this game close. Or Colin,

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Speaker 1: it's a recipe for Baker to break our heart with

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Speaker 1: an interception when the team is down by ten and

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Speaker 1: we need him to score a touchdown to cover the

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Speaker 1: back door.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's done both. Let's talk about something really really important.

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00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:44,160
Speaker 2: If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan. It's

338
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,399
Speaker 2: America's largest injury law firm and they are there for you.

339
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,000
Speaker 2: Over one hundred offices nationwide. Think about that, more than

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00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,439
Speaker 2: one thousand lawyers with over twenty billion. That's a B

341
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:59,720
Speaker 2: twenty billion dollars recovered for over five hundred thousand clients.

342
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 2: Things happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury claim with

343
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,639
Speaker 2: Morgan and Morgan is really really easy. Like winning in

344
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 2: the NFL is hard. We know that quarterbacking in the

345
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,640
Speaker 2: NFL is hard, submitting a claim is easy. You're ever injured,

346
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 2: check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless

347
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 2: they win. For more information, go to for the people

348
00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 2: dot com, slash Colin or dial pound law from your

349
00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 2: cell phone. Pretty easy. That's for the people dot com

350
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,640
Speaker 2: slash Colin or pound law pound five to nine from

351
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 2: your cell Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record

352
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 2: of fighting for you to get a full and fair

353
00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 2: compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This

354
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:49,400
Speaker 2: is a paid advertisement. There's always a game. I want

355
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 2: your I feel mildly interested, but I want your conviction

356
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 2: and your insight. The last the only time the Texans

357
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 2: have really played this year was when they traveled north

358
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Speaker 2: and face Minnesota and it was a lot of Brian

359
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 2: Flores and c. J. Stroud acknowledging I don't even know

360
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 2: what I saw. I like Green Bay, I've never loved

361
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Speaker 2: their defense. Texans getting three. I've got Joe Mixon back

362
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Speaker 2: a run component. I want your opinion on this, Like

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00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 2: it's telling me to bet Texans, but I think Jordan

364
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 2: Love is such a special player. But Demiko Ryans could

365
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 2: do a Brian Flores to Jordan Love like Flores did

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Speaker 2: to C. J. Stroud. Tell me that Texans is the

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Speaker 2: right side.

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Speaker 1: It's not. This is one of those number plays. There's

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Speaker 1: plenty of places where you can get the Packers at

370
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Speaker 1: minus two and a half, and the wise guys are

371
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 1: betting the Packers at two and a half. And what

372
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 1: really tells you the wise guys are betting the Packers

373
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 1: at two and a half is the way the money

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00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 1: is split. Again, public is all over the Texas. You

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00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 1: can see that the money is coming in on the Packers,

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00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 1: and that's what's fascinating here. So it's a really hard game,

377
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 1: and there's been a huge debate in the professional betting

378
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 1: community about which is the right side. But if you're

379
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: getting the Packers at two and a half, people want

380
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 1: to make that The professionals want to make that bet.

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00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: What's the game I'm missing? It's usually egregiously uncomfortable to watch.

382
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,879
Speaker 2: It's a corner of a corner TV game. What is it?

383
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Speaker 1: Well, I'm a little surprised we didn't talk about the

384
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Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Niners at all.

385
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Speaker 2: I will not bet against Andy Reid off of bye.

386
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 2: My heart tells me the Niners are eventually going to

387
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 2: win one of these games. Brock Purty is actually today

388
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 2: playing better than Mahomes, So my gut is the Niners

389
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 2: are the side. But betting against Andy Reid off a

390
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 2: bye is like these days betting against Otani with men

391
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 2: on base. I'm not interested.

392
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, not only that, betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.

393
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 2: I mean, he's like ten and three or something.

394
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 1: It's it's ridiculous. So I'm glad. I'm glad because the

395
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,439
Speaker 1: answer would be the there is no answer, and it's

396
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 1: what you just said. It's a heart and a head game.

397
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 1: In your head, it's like the Super Bowl last year.

398
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 1: In your head, the Niners have the better roster. The

399
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 1: Niners should win this game outright, But Patrick Mahomes some

400
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: like you make your own luck, right, even this year,

401
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,199
Speaker 1: they've been lucky in so many spots, and you have

402
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 1: to say to yourself, of course this is going to end.

403
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 1: It can't continue to be this way. But it's Patrick

404
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,400
Speaker 1: Mahomes who finds a way to get out of the pocket,

405
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 1: find Travis Kelcey in his zone. When Travis Kelcey hasn't

406
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 1: caught two passes the entire game. All of a sudden,

407
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: the last drive they need a field goal, they're driving

408
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 1: down the field, they get the field goal. Quirky things happen.

409
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 1: So it's a really hard game, Like people don't want

410
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:48,120
Speaker 1: to really invest in this game. I mean I almost

411
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: like I'm sick to my stomach telling you this. But

412
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: the Wise guys are all over the browns now plum. Yeah,

413
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:01,679
Speaker 1: plus five and a half against the Bengals. Oh, I know,

414
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 1: I know, Oh Crows. I mean they just traded to

415
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: Marii Cooper. Well, look, so what happened was this line

416
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 1: was at five and a half and the Wise guys

417
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: were already trending towards the Brown.

418
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 2: Now this is at Cleveland getting five and a half

419
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 2: against Cincinnati and burrough.

420
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 1: Yes, and so when Mark Cooper was traded Tuesday afternoon,

421
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 1: this line immediately shot up to six and a half.

422
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: Do you know who's not worth a point against the

423
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: point spread? Amari Cooper. Do you know who else isn't

424
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: worth a point against the point spread? Aiden Hutchinson. There

425
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 1: is nobody in the NFL who is worth a point

426
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 1: against this point spread unless it's a quarterback. Anyone else

427
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: is a half a point. That's it, Amari Cooper. The

428
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 1: Browns should get points back for trading Amari Cooper. That's

429
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 1: how the wise guys look at this. So they bought

430
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Speaker 1: the Browns at six and a half, they bought the

431
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: Browns again at six. It's back down to five and

432
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 1: a half. There's a lot of stuff that they like

433
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: about betting the Browns. The Browns have not had an

434
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 1: offensive line that was healthy this entire year. This weekend,

435
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: they should be getting Jack Conklin back. That's huge for

436
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 1: their offensive line. Nick Chubb should be back. I'm not

437
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 1: saying Nick Chubb makes them a much more superior team,

438
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 1: but it does give them an opportunity to start playing

439
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: a little bit more like Kevin Stefanski wants to play

440
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: these games and take the ball out of de Shaun

441
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: Watson's hands. At the very least, maybe Deshaun Watson won't

442
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: be staring at the pass rush because he won't be

443
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: so afraid because Jack Conklin is playing again. So I

444
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 1: do like that that is happening. There's some good health

445
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 1: things on the offense side of the ball, and their

446
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 1: defense is getting healthier too. And you got a top

447
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 1: five pass rush defense, you got Miles Garrett in a

448
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 1: divisional game. In this situation with the Bengals team, that

449
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 1: still isn't that good, right? They shouldn't be a five

450
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. It's terrible. You don't want

451
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 1: to bet the bad quarterback against one of the best quarterbacks.

452
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 1: I'm not asking you to do it. I'm just telling

453
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: you what the professionals are doing.

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00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 2: So are you saying the wise guys like Kansas City

455
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 2: plus one and a half against San Francisco completely split?

456
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 1: It is like you have the guys who are just

457
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 1: like you who refuse to bet against Patrick Mahomes. In fact,

458
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 1: they would rather take their shot and bet on Patrick Mahomes.

459
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 1: They don't want to be watching the end of the

460
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 1: game and seeing Patrick Mahomes have the ball and know

461
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 1: they should have bet on him and have not bet

462
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 1: on him. But but what's been interesting is the Chiefs

463
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,199
Speaker 1: are a very public road underdog that is not a

464
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 1: great situation to be on the side of. If you're

465
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: a professional, if you're a better right, you want to

466
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: be against the public in most situations. This number has

467
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 1: been kind of staying at one and a half, which

468
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 1: tells you that the wise guys have been coming in

469
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 1: in on the Niners. So if they're closing their eyes

470
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 1: looking at rosters, looking at data, they're betting the Niners.

471
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: If they're eyes wide open seeing who's on the field,

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00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: they're betting the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: Chad Millman, Sharper Square, CEO, Action Network. All odds provided

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Speaker 2: by DraftKings. As always, my friend, thank you, great to

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Speaker 2: see you buddy the volume. Thanks so much for listening.

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Speaker 2: If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review.