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Speaker 1: And welcome back in Late King on the Air. It

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday night, December twenty ninth. The Year of our

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Speaker 1: Lord twenty twenty is still coming to you. In very

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Speaker 1: unfamiliar but not totally impossible circumstances, I am at what

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Speaker 1: is now being referred to as My Georgia Childhood Bedroom

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Speaker 1: Secret Backup Bunker Studio. That is an unofficial title pending

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Speaker 1: a better title. Also, the naming rights are available, as

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Speaker 1: I said in the podcast this morning, anyone out there

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Speaker 1: for Lexus, you guys want to slap your name on

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Speaker 1: the Georgia's Secret Underground Childhood Bedroom Bunker Studio, which has

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Speaker 1: already had a name change in the first twenty seconds

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Speaker 1: of the show, be my guest. Happy to have you

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Speaker 1: with us, though I am still not in Nashville because

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Speaker 1: we still don't really have internet, which once upon a

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Speaker 1: time I lived without entirely, and now I cannot function

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Speaker 1: without in terms of a work environment. So I'm at

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Speaker 1: the backup studio. Colin is throwing this show together sort

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Speaker 1: of on the fly. Thank you so much for being

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Speaker 1: with us, and really here's our goal. If you close

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Speaker 1: your eyes and you just listen, we hope it sounds

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Speaker 1: no different. Occasionally you'll hear me breathe or you may

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Speaker 1: you may hear that sound a little bit more. It's

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Speaker 1: just a little bit different microphone I'm using. But other

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Speaker 1: than that, we should be good. We got a lot

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Speaker 1: to talk about tonight. We got some more Bowl previews.

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Speaker 1: I'm not just doing playoff games. Some of you thought

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Speaker 1: that the other night. No, I'm not doing that. But

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Speaker 1: before we do our game previews, I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about a few things. A lot of you have been

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Speaker 1: asking about Dabos Swinny and about Clemson. Now, there is

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Speaker 1: not a Z in Clemson, but there is one when

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Speaker 1: I pronounce it, and we're just gonna have to deal

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Speaker 1: with that. It's an impediment I have. We're just gonna

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Speaker 1: have to deal with it, just like you have to

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Speaker 1: deal with Dabos Swinny talking now. I don't really have

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Speaker 1: a problem with it, but only because I know where

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Speaker 1: he's coming from. Exactly where he's coming from. We're going

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Speaker 1: to discuss that in just a second, and how it

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Speaker 1: does or does not pertain to the Ohio State game.

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Speaker 1: I am going to tell you in much further detail

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Speaker 1: how I think Florida and Notre Dame are on a

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Speaker 1: very similar path right now, or there are very similar

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Speaker 1: spots on their path, shall say, in twenty twenty m beyond,

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Speaker 1: Alabama's got an opportunity to do something incredible over the

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Speaker 1: next two weeks. January eleventh, I think is the title game,

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Speaker 1: So next two two and a half weeks, they got

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Speaker 1: a chance to do something totally incredible. They've already done

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Speaker 1: a lot of incredible things this year. They set records

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Speaker 1: in the SEC which hopefully will never be broken because

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Speaker 1: hopefully we'll never have to have a season like this again.

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Speaker 1: But should they be an overwhelming favorite in the playoff

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Speaker 1: and should people be walking around calling them unbeatable? I

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Speaker 1: have thought no all year that they shouldn't be called

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Speaker 1: unbeatable because they're not unbeatable. Unbeatable teams don't win by

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Speaker 1: a touchdown in a conference title game, really really good

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Speaker 1: teams do, but unbeatable teams don't. Unbeatable teams win by

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Speaker 1: fifty or whatever. So that's always been ridiculous. Having said that,

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Speaker 1: Alabama is an incredible team, the best team in the

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Speaker 1: country that I've seen this year. It's probably the best

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Speaker 1: team Nick Saban's had that you can debate, But I

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Speaker 1: believe it is. So I'll show you the angle I'm

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Speaker 1: going at with that in just a second. Actually it's

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Speaker 1: probably like twenty minutes away, but still. And also I

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Speaker 1: have to thank you again because just as I thank

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Speaker 1: you the other night when I told you that we

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Speaker 1: have gone over twelve hundred five star reviews on the

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Speaker 1: Late Kick Podcast, we've now gone over thirteen hundred five

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Speaker 1: star reviews in the Apple podcast section of the Late

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Speaker 1: Kick Podcast. So if I just say it every time

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Speaker 1: and it brings another one hundred or so five star reviews,

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Speaker 1: why not, Hey, let's go to fourteen hundred, shall we again?

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Speaker 1: Thank you in advance, sincerely xoxo, yours truly. So let's

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Speaker 1: dive into this. It's going to be a little bit

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Speaker 1: looser show because, believe me, I have zero notes in

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Speaker 1: front of me. So we're going to do it just

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Speaker 1: like we do the Late Kick Extra podcast, except it's

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Speaker 1: not Q and A. But we're going to be loose here.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be free flowing and away we go.

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Speaker 1: A lot of you have noticed debos winneat Clemson. I's

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Speaker 1: been talking a little bit, talking about everything from how

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Speaker 1: his opponent shouldn't be in the playoff through no fault

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Speaker 1: of theirs. Of course, it's not an Ohio state thing.

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Speaker 1: It's just a playoff thing. It's just a principal thing

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Speaker 1: to the fact that he could be governor of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: You could argue whether either of those are valid or not.

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Speaker 1: But I will say this, I'm not sure why you

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Speaker 1: guys don't understand what he's doing. Why is this a

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Speaker 1: surprise to anyone? Maybe if you just arrived in the

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Speaker 1: college football world ten minutes ago and you don't know

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Speaker 1: anything about anyone, and so you're just developing a first

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Speaker 1: time perception of people. Okay, maybe you're looking at daboswiney

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Speaker 1: and you're saying, oh, yes, saying that's an Jersey accent,

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Speaker 1: even though I've never visited there coming out. Maybe you're

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Speaker 1: looking at him in your saying, oh, he must be

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Speaker 1: a guy who talks a lot. Well, if recency bias

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Speaker 1: is all that you're basing that on, yeah he does

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Speaker 1: talk a lot. But think back further. Do you remember

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Speaker 1: when they first came to this dance. Do you remember

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Speaker 1: when Clemson was brand new at the college football playoff table?

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Speaker 1: They played Bama in Arizona, then they played him the

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Speaker 1: next year in Tampa. But do you remember when they

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Speaker 1: used to be an underdog in these settings? That's what

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to get you to remember. It wasn't always

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Speaker 1: the case that Clemson showed up and they were the favorite.

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Speaker 1: They were the prohibitive favorite. They're favored by a touchdown

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Speaker 1: in some places, a little bit more than a touchdown

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Speaker 1: against Ohio State this Friday night. That was a different DNA.

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Speaker 1: When I say DNA, I don't actually mean the way

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Speaker 1: the program was wired. I mean the way it carried

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Speaker 1: itself outwardly and the way that it's leader, Dabloswenny carried

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Speaker 1: himself outwardly. There has been a diametric opposition that I've

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Speaker 1: had to one thing clums And does. Over the years,

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Speaker 1: I've spoken about this a lot. I don't think i've

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Speaker 1: spoken about it this year. So a lot of you

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Speaker 1: are new to the show, so you may not have

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Speaker 1: heard me talk about this. I always have to preface

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Speaker 1: it the right way because it sounds like I'm trashing

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Speaker 1: Clumsing and I'm not at all. There is an approach

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Speaker 1: that Dabloswenny takes that I don't personally buy into. So

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Speaker 1: the approach is this the approach is allowing the key

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Speaker 1: source of fuel for your a motivation to be doubt

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Speaker 1: and allowing the key source of fuel for your motivation

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Speaker 1: to be an underdog mentality. I don't believe in that,

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Speaker 1: not because it doesn't help you win. It does help

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Speaker 1: you win, obviously, it helps you win. Check out where

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Speaker 1: they are right now, check out where they've been. It's

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Speaker 1: not that it can't help you win. It's not that

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Speaker 1: it doesn't get you fired up. It does get you

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Speaker 1: fired up. Absolutely. Clemson plays with a massive chip on

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Speaker 1: their shoulder, or at least they have in the past

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Speaker 1: in moments where they were an underdog. When in the

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Speaker 1: world have you ever seen them in a big game

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Speaker 1: where they were an underdog underachieve. They may not have

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Speaker 1: always won, but they've always overachieved at least as far

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Speaker 1: as I can tell, relative to expectation. Why is that What?

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Speaker 1: Because they felt doubted, because they felt like an underdog.

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Speaker 1: So of course that worked. Using that is your fuel,

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Speaker 1: using that as the source of your motivation, it works.

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Speaker 1: It's all well and good in your climb. And Clemson

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Speaker 1: was climbing in twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, seventeen, like even

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen when they boat raced Alabama, they were

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Speaker 1: an underdog, and there you go, they overachieved massively relative

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Speaker 1: to expectation. So how could you have a problem with this, Well,

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Speaker 1: here's my problem. My problem's not with what it does

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Speaker 1: for you on the climb. My problem is what that

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Speaker 1: philosophy does for you when you're at the mountaintop. Because

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Speaker 1: here's the thing about that overachievements, the thing about that

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Speaker 1: chip on the shoulder mentality, us against the world, back

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Speaker 1: against the wall. Well, if you're good, and you keep

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Speaker 1: getting better, and you keep getting more talented, and you

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Speaker 1: keep overachieving, overachieving, when when when all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: you do something really crazy in that climb, you get

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Speaker 1: to the top, You get to the mountaintop. Clemson has

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Speaker 1: been there a couple of times. But even when they

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Speaker 1: won their first title in twenty sixteen, was it yeah

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Speaker 1: in Tampa. I mean they were still an underdog. The

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Speaker 1: next year they faced Bama, and the year after that

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Speaker 1: they faced Bama. So as a program, they weren't viewed

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Speaker 1: as having quite gotten to the level of Alabama, even

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Speaker 1: though they beat them one time on the field. But

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Speaker 1: now as a program, many people view them as equal

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Speaker 1: to Alabama. In fact, after the twenty eighteen game, a

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Speaker 1: lot of people viewed them as having surpassed Alabama. Had

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Speaker 1: Clemson played Alabama in a playoff situation last year, Clemson

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Speaker 1: would have been the favorite. Now Tua had been knocked out,

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Speaker 1: but Clemson would have been the favorite. Okay, so the

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Speaker 1: perception changed. Well. Also product of that is Clemson's favored

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Speaker 1: by most everyone they play now now against some of

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Speaker 1: the teams they play in conference, really the motivation level

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter because their talent alone is winning those games.

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Speaker 1: But now you see what happens when you get in

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Speaker 1: a big game against Ohio State, for example, and now

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you're not the underdog anymore. No

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Speaker 1: one doubts you anymore. That entire fuel source, that motivation

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Speaker 1: source that you used to get to the top, got

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Speaker 1: you there. It got you to the top. Here is

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Speaker 1: the difference in philosophy I have versus the way that

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Speaker 1: Daboswenty runs his program. I'm gonna save you some time

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Speaker 1: right now. If you're headed to the comment section, if

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Speaker 1: you're a detractor, you're already right. And the point you're

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Speaker 1: about to make, and that is Dabos won multiple championships.

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Speaker 1: I don't even have a team of my own. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: why would you listen to me and my style and

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Speaker 1: my approach to leading an organization over a guy who's proven.

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Speaker 1: If you were going to say that, let me save

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Speaker 1: you some time. It's valid. What you're gonna say is valid.

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Speaker 1: That is a criticism that you could have for what

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Speaker 1: I'm about to tell you. But yet I still feel

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Speaker 1: this way. I don't believe in the philosophy of allowing

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Speaker 1: doubt to be the fuel source for your motivation. I

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Speaker 1: don't believe in having your back against the wall, you

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Speaker 1: against the world, all that stuff being your fuel source

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Speaker 1: only because eventually, if you get to the mountaintop, it's

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Speaker 1: not there anymore. The blueprint you used to get there

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Speaker 1: is no longer applicable, and you find yourself being on

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Speaker 1: top of the world, having to reinvent your approach. If

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Speaker 1: you want to know what's behind a little bit of

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Speaker 1: what you're seeing right now, that's it. If you want

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Speaker 1: to all of a sudden know why Dabos Swinny seems

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Speaker 1: to be talking out of every office he has right now.

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Speaker 1: It's not because he's dumb. It's not because he's bored.

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Speaker 1: It's not because all of a sudden he doesn't have

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Speaker 1: a filter. That's not it. Dabos Swinny could talk and

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Speaker 1: think circles are on most of the folks criticizing him,

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Speaker 1: That's not it. What's happening is this right here where

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Speaker 1: Clemson's about to be Friday night in New Orleans against

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Speaker 1: Ohio State. This used to be a spot where they'd

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Speaker 1: be a ten point underdog or a seven point underdog.

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Speaker 1: They're not anymore. They're not. They're a seven point favor

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Speaker 1: So all that stuff you used to use for motivation,

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Speaker 1: all that stuff in these big time settings that you

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Speaker 1: used to be able to tell your kids, Hey, look

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Speaker 1: at this headline. Look at that headline. Look at this

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Speaker 1: point spread. Listen to this expert. Well, the point spreads

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Speaker 1: all favor you, and the headline favors you, and the

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Speaker 1: expert's picking you. So that fuel source, that source of

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Speaker 1: motivation you used to have, the plug got pulled out

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Speaker 1: of the wall, the gas tank got emptied, and it

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Speaker 1: got filled with orange juice. If you're trying to tell

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Speaker 1: your guys they're still being doubted and it's them against

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Speaker 1: the world, it rings hollow because they're not stupid. They've

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Speaker 1: got an iPhone in their locker. Every time they turn

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Speaker 1: it on, they're told how good they are. They're not

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Speaker 1: told how little a chance they have. Now, if you

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Speaker 1: want to use this, if you're Brian Kelly in Notre Dame,

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Speaker 1: I guess it'd work, but it doesn't work if you're

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Speaker 1: cleansing that they're in lies. Really, the opposition that I

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Speaker 1: have to some of the approach that he's taken. The

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Speaker 1: results so far have paid off. But then again, if

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Speaker 1: I have opposition, it certainly wouldn't be because of what

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Speaker 1: I expect to happen on the front end. On the

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Speaker 1: front end, Clemson's done everything I would think they'd do.

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Speaker 1: It's once you get to the mountaintop, how do you

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Speaker 1: stay there? That's the beauty. And there are different approaches

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Speaker 1: being taken here Clemson versus Tuscaloosa, but that's the beauty

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Speaker 1: and what Nick Saban's done. You don't really hear that

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Speaker 1: from them. You don't ever. They don't talk very much period.

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Speaker 1: But when they talk, it's not that they sound very

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Speaker 1: robotic and you think it sounds boring, like it's a

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Speaker 1: lot a lot more fond to get some headlines. It's

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Speaker 1: a lot more fun to hear some bulletin board locker

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Speaker 1: room material. But that's kind of not the way that

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Speaker 1: that program has been programmed. And that's because that's just

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Speaker 1: not how Nick Saban operates. It's always even keel, never

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Speaker 1: too far up, never too far down. We're going to

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Speaker 1: operate based on a process over using external factors to

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Speaker 1: fuel us. Because if we're reliant on external factors i e. Doubters,

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Speaker 1: i E. Hate i e. Locker room material, bulletin board material,

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Speaker 1: what happens when it runs out? Where's our fuel coming from?

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Speaker 1: If we taught ourselves to rely on that, where's our

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Speaker 1: fuel coming from? Well, right now that is absent. For Clemson,

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Speaker 1: they don't have it. They may beat Ohio State Friday night.

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Speaker 1: I'm picking them to win, but I'm telling you in

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Speaker 1: the lead up, the reason Dablos Swinny sounds so much different,

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Speaker 1: it's because they don't have that. Right now, there is

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Speaker 1: no doubt, and so I don't know what his approach is.

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Speaker 1: He may be crazy, maybe crazy like a fox or tiger,

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Speaker 1: as the case may be, but I'm telling you, whatever's

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Speaker 1: going into him talking so much right now, you can

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Speaker 1: bet your bottom dollar is directly tied to the fact

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Speaker 1: that he knows he has to have a different pregame

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Speaker 1: approach here as opposed to what he used to have

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Speaker 1: in these big games. What he used to have is

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Speaker 1: not there. Then, before we move on here, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you want any further evidence, remember what it used

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Speaker 1: to be. What it used to be leading into these

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Speaker 1: big games was total radio silence from Clemson. Clemson was

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Speaker 1: being ignored and they really didn't draw attention to themselves

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Speaker 1: because there was no sound coming out of Clemson. Now

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Speaker 1: internally inside the four walls figuratively of their program and

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Speaker 1: their football team. Well that's where the talking was happened,

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Speaker 1: but it never got out, almost to the point where

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Speaker 1: Clemson was kind of anonymous. You knew the Tiger Paul,

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Speaker 1: but you didn't know a whole lot of the players

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Speaker 1: outside of maybe Deshaun Watson in company. Well now it's

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Speaker 1: the inverse. Now there's sound bites coming out of Clemson

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Speaker 1: every day. They are totally different going into a big

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Speaker 1: game now than what they were like going into a

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Speaker 1: big game back then. And all that is, it's nothing more,

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Speaker 1: nothing less. All that is is Dabloswiney knowing he's reached

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Speaker 1: a different level in the journey of his program, and

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Speaker 1: therefore he's got to redefine some of what they use

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Speaker 1: in a build up to get their team ready to

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Speaker 1: do what they're famous for, which is peaking at the

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Speaker 1: right time. And I don't think it's hating because I'm

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Speaker 1: still picking them to win Friday night close. But I'm

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Speaker 1: picking them to win. All right, let's move on here, Colin,

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Speaker 1: Let's go to Florida and Notre Dame. So the other

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Speaker 1: night on Late Kick episode ninety eight, I think it

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Speaker 1: was I was talking about Florida. I was talking about

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame. We were looking ahead to games coming up. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: Florida's got Oklahoma Wednesday night, and Notre Dame's got a

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Speaker 1: big playoff game against Alabama, and they're different ones in

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Speaker 1: a playoff game, ones not but I think that there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of similarities, and I wanted to dive

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Speaker 1: into it a little bit further now about where Florida

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Speaker 1: is and where Notre Dame is. We were in an

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Speaker 1: editorial meeting yesterday morning. We were kind of talking about

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Speaker 1: a content plan for the upcoming couple of weeks. We

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Speaker 1: always like to try and stay ahead of the curve

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Speaker 1: as best we can so that when breaking news happens,

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Speaker 1: we don't have to reshuffle fifty cards in order to

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Speaker 1: make it work. Everyone knows what they're doing. So we

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Speaker 1: were talking about it, and I just kind of threw

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Speaker 1: this out there, and I knew I was going to

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Speaker 1: talk about it on the show tonight, and I really

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Speaker 1: wanted to bounce it off some other people and got

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Speaker 1: some feedback on it. But think about this, Think about

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Speaker 1: where Florida is, Think about where Notre Dame is. They

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Speaker 1: entered the season, I thought in very similar positions. They

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Speaker 1: entered the season with a big hurdle still in front

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Speaker 1: of them, respectively. There were different hurdles, but a hurdle

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Speaker 1: nonetheless in front of each one of them. The hurdle

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Speaker 1: for Notre Dame was more collective, and it's just you

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Speaker 1: have not cleared the hurdle of beating elite teams, and

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Speaker 1: there are very few opportunities you have to do that

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Speaker 1: because there are very few elite teams out there, and

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Speaker 1: by nature of them not playing in a conference normally

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Speaker 1: and not having made the playoff only one time, I

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Speaker 1: think it's been they just don't get a lot of opportunities.

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Speaker 1: They got one against Alabama and twenty twelve they got humbled.

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Speaker 1: They got one against Clemson a few years ago they

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Speaker 1: got humbled. Well, finally they're in the ACC, as fate

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Speaker 1: would have it, this year and they play Clemson the

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Speaker 1: first time around and they beat them. Classic game. You

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Speaker 1: could argue it was the best game of the year.

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Speaker 1: Classic game pause on Notre Dame. Now down to Gainsville, Florida.

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Speaker 1: We go. Florida comes into the beginning of the year.

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Speaker 1: I remember doing several videos on this and I was

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Speaker 1: just repeating what Florida viewers and listeners had told me

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Speaker 1: in my email inbox. Their thought was, we have the

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Speaker 1: edge of quarterback over Georgia this year. We got better

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Speaker 1: skill talent than them, We got a more experienced roster.

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Speaker 1: We think we have a coaching edge. If we don't

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Speaker 1: beat Georgia this year, we may never beat him. Under

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Speaker 1: Dan Mullen, it was a do or die a year

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Speaker 1: for Georgia fans or for Florida fans when it comes

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Speaker 1: to george this year, and a lot of their minds

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Speaker 1: it was that was the hurdle. Doesn't matter how many

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Speaker 1: guys we put on the preseason All American Team, doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter that we're picked to do this or that. If

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Speaker 1: we can't get over the Georgia hurdle, that means we're

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Speaker 1: probably not getting to Atlanta to play for the SEC title.

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Speaker 1: And then the Dad in Jacksonville comes and it comes

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Speaker 1: to fruition. It validates a lot of what Florida fans

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Speaker 1: wanted to see. Validates they had a ton on Georgia

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Speaker 1: at halftime, and they go on to cruise against the

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Speaker 1: dogs and then they win the East. They cleared that hurdle,

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Speaker 1: all right, so there we go. Who were to just

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Speaker 1: pause in time? Right there, Both hurdles have been cleared.

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Speaker 1: We're good to go, right Not quite. Then some unforeseen

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Speaker 1: things start to occur, maybe more unforeseen for Florida than

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Florida ends up going down the road a

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Speaker 1: little ways, and here comes Alabama getting bigger on the horizon,

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Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, there's a dun dun,

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Speaker 1: and it's like a tire blows out on the interstate.

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Speaker 1: Only the tire that blew out here was a loss

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Speaker 1: at home to LSU as a twenty four some odd

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Speaker 1: point favorite, and that comes out of no where, and

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the momentum you thought you had

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Speaker 1: is just totally off the rails because now you don't

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Speaker 1: have a shot in all likelihood to go to the playoff.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, you could still make it to Atlanta, and

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Speaker 1: you could still well, you're gonna make it to Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: You could still obviously win an SEC title, but oh boy,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a tall task against Alabama. And then

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Speaker 1: you get to Atlanta and you play Alabama and it's

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Speaker 1: a hard fought battle, but you end up losing to them.

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Speaker 1: As Georgia finishes the season red hot, by the way,

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Speaker 1: and they got a chance against Cincinnati to really put

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Speaker 1: an emphasis on that, and Florida's got a shot against

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma to either win and salvage a season or maybe

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Speaker 1: suffer another defeat and put yourself even further back into

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Speaker 1: the mentality of we took one step forward and then

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Speaker 1: we took two or three steps back. All the momentum

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Speaker 1: that you thought you had, that it felt like you had,

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Speaker 1: will have evaporated. Do you really feel at the end

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Speaker 1: of the year, if things continue as they have, do

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Speaker 1: you really feel like, at the end of the year

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Speaker 1: you really surpassed Georgia and put distance between you and

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Speaker 1: them like it felt like you were doing that afternoon

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Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. Pause, let's go back to South Bend, Indiana.

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Speaker 1: After that win against Clemson. It was a big deal

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Speaker 1: in South Bend, huge deal. But all the while, you know,

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Speaker 1: we got to take care of business the rest of

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Speaker 1: the way. Got a really good win on the road

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Speaker 1: against North Carolina. I'm a big believer in giving credit

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Speaker 1: for that because it was a big win. They were

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Speaker 1: only favored by three or four and they ended up

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Speaker 1: winning comfortably and they dominated the game physically. So then

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Speaker 1: they go to the ACC title game and we know

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Speaker 1: what happened. And now the one thing that you were

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Speaker 1: crediting yourself for, the one hurdle you cleared, it just

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Speaker 1: smashed you. When it got its quarterback back in Trevor Lawrence,

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Speaker 1: it smashed you. Clemson smashed you. And now you're still

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Speaker 1: in the playoff. It's a really big deal. You're still

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Speaker 1: in the playoff. But now you're going down to Dallas

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Speaker 1: to play in the Rose Bowl. No less, make that

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Speaker 1: makes sense, and you're playing Alabama. But you're a nearly

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Speaker 1: a three touchdown underdog against Alabama. Remember what the hurdle was.

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Speaker 1: The hurdle for Notre Dame was we can't beat the

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Speaker 1: elite teams. Well, if the first elite team you played

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Speaker 1: smashed you once it was fully healthy, and then the

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Speaker 1: second elite team you play smashes you in a playoff

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Speaker 1: setting no less, what does it feel like? What does

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Speaker 1: it feel like? Remember Florida, Florida thought they cleared that

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Speaker 1: hurdle and then all of a sudden they have multiple setbacks.

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Speaker 1: What if Notre Dame cleared their hurdle and they have

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Speaker 1: multiple setbacks, and right at the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: when you thought you'd be ready to shine a bright

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Speaker 1: white hot spotlight on twenty twenty one, and here we go,

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Speaker 1: we're ready to dive in. What if you just kind

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Speaker 1: of feel like you always felt And if think about it,

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Speaker 1: if I were to tell you that at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the year, if I were to tell a Florida

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Speaker 1: fan or a Notre Dame fan, Florida, you're gonna beat

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Speaker 1: Georgia this year, but you're still gonna end the season

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Speaker 1: kind of disappointed. Or Notre Dame, You're gonna beat Clemson

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Speaker 1: when they come to South Bend, but ultimately you're gonna

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Speaker 1: end the season kind of disappoint him. Would that make sense?

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Speaker 1: Of course it wouldn't, because if you're Florida, I mean,

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Speaker 1: by default, if I'm gonna beat Georgia this year, then

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Speaker 1: obviously I'm probably going to Atlanta, and that means they're not.

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Speaker 1: There's no way I could end the season feeling like

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00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 1: we're lesser than them. But yet, strange situations can occur.

426
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 1: You could have Kirby Smart start a different quarterback down

427
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,439
Speaker 1: the back stretch of the season after he's already played you.

428
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 1: You could have yourself falter mightily and then get humbled

429
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 1: in Atlanta, well beaten, I won't say humbled in Atlanta,

430
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: and you can look around and say, well, we beat

431
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 1: him this year. But is it is it something that's

432
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 1: gonna sustain itself or is it just kind of an

433
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 1: isolated one time deal. Likewise, with Notre Dame, yeah, we

434
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 1: beat Clemson, but then they got the quarterback back and

435
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: they smashed us. And then we got smashed in Dallas

436
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 1: against Alabama, Like so we really did we do we

437
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 1: do anything? Did we really put distance between the perception

438
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 1: of us and the new reality of us. That's why

439
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 1: these games are important, and that's why I want you

440
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 1: to watch very closely tomorrow Florida plays Oklahoma. They got

441
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 1: a lot of guys out. I'm excited for the opportunity. Well,

442
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 1: number one, I'm excited to watch the game. Period number two,

443
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,359
Speaker 1: I'm excited about the opportunity because there have been times

444
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 1: this year where you've looked at Florida and you've called

445
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 1: them an immature team. They had moments this year of immaturity. Well,

446
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 1: LSU came in there with a gutted roster and they

447
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 1: beat them. They came in there with a lot of

448
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,360
Speaker 1: key players out, already in a bad year, and they

449
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 1: beat Florida. Well, now Florida's gonna go and they're gonna

450
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 1: play Oklahoma. Fully motivated Oklahoma team, really good Oklahoma team,

451
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 1: now favored by three over the Gators with the guys

452
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 1: who are opting out, and Florida's got a lot of

453
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 1: their key players opting out. Okay, So you're gonna see

454
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 1: You're gonna see a reflection of the identity and the

455
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 1: mentality that program. One way or another. You're either gonna

456
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: see him rise up and turn in the heck of

457
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,679
Speaker 1: a performance, or you're gonna see him go in a

458
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 1: total and complete shell. If it's the ladder then you

459
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,479
Speaker 1: got a bigger set of issues. But if it's the former,

460
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,760
Speaker 1: just like LSU had a little spark of hope for

461
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: their future with a very good showing in an otherwise

462
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 1: terrible year, if you end this season, I'm not one

463
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 1: to put a lot of emphasis on Bowl games, and

464
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 1: I don't really care about the result here. If Florida fights,

465
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 1: I mean fights their tail off and plays one of

466
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 1: the best games they've played all year and puts in

467
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: one of the best efforts they put in all year,

468
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: I don't care if they win by three or lose

469
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 1: by seven. It means a lot moving forward. Now, Notre Dame.

470
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 1: If they beat Alabama, obviously, that turns the entire sport

471
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 1: on its ear, and that turns the Playoff on its ear,

472
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 1: and that's its own segment. But if they lose to Alabama,

473
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: are you losing forty five to seventeen or are you

474
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 1: losing thirty eight thirty four Because you turn in a

475
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: thirty eight thirty four performance, you played Alabama closer than

476
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 1: any team in the country this year. There's a lot

477
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 1: positively to be taken from that moving forward. So really

478
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 1: really big games and really important games for matters that

479
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: extend beyond just twenty twenty coming up later this week.

480
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on here. There was a moment

481
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 1: in the preseason where I was talking about practice, and

482
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 1: I was talking about what we were hearing from practice. Now, obviously,

483
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 1: it was a situation like none we have ever experienced.

484
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 1: No one was allowed to be at practice, even reporters

485
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: who are normally given like five minutes ten minutes press

486
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 1: availability before practice to observe they weren't even allowed out there.

487
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 1: So there was very little tangible, legitimate information coming out

488
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 1: of practices. So I was hearing from Alabama that they

489
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: thought their offense was going to be better this year.

490
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: Pause and think about what I just said. Now it

491
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: sounds reasonable. Back then, it sounded ludicrous. What I was

492
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 1: telling you was not firsthand. I was telling you someone

493
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 1: with firsthand knowledge of the Alabama program is suggesting that

494
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: replacing two a tongue of Iloa with Matt Jones and

495
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 1: taking Jerry Judy and Henry Ruggs away from this offense

496
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 1: and Jedrick Wills and taking away stud after stud from

497
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,239
Speaker 1: this offense, it's still going to be better than it

498
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 1: was last year. Not as good they think it's going

499
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: to be better, and it happened. It actually happened. Like

500
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 1: I am a believer in that. At the very least,

501
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 1: it's on par I think this offense is better than

502
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: the one they had last year, and now they've lost

503
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: Waddle and it still looks better than the one they

504
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: had last year. I don't know how in the world

505
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,479
Speaker 1: you do that. I can tell you one reason, and

506
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: it's the guy who just won the Broils Award, and

507
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,479
Speaker 1: that's Steve Sarkesian. You just got to pay the man

508
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: his money. That's what you got to do. And trust me,

509
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 1: they have and they will. You just got to pay

510
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: the man his money. So a strong tip of the

511
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 1: cap to that upstart program out of Tuscaloosa, the University

512
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: of who is it Colin Alabama? Yeah, I think they're

513
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: called Alabama. They have an intangible mascot named Crimson Tide,

514
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 1: and then there's an elephant on the sideline. But I

515
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: want you to think about this for a second. Let's

516
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: rewind ten years, eleven years, twelve years. So let's say

517
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: Saban just got to Alabama, they're just beginning their run.

518
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: It's two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine. That timeframe.

519
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,199
Speaker 1: If I were to tell you even back then, if

520
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: I were to tell you, hey, headline, Alabama has six

521
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 1: first Team All Americans, you'd say, well, that makes sense.

522
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,400
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a good program, up and coming program.

523
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: They're right near the top every year. Now they're recruiting.

524
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 1: Well I could see that, and then I said, no, no, no, no, no, no,

525
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 1: you don't get it. I'm from the future. I'm from

526
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, and I'm telling you even then, the Saban

527
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 1: guy's still going to be there, So take the over

528
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: first piece of advice. Secondly, I am informing you they're

529
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: gonna have six First Team All Americans that year. Here's

530
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 1: the catch, only one of them is going to be

531
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 1: on defense at the time. Mind you, this is the

532
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: John Parker Wilson, Greg McElroy era, the AJ mccerron era

533
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: is still to come at Alabama. And I'm telling you

534
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: sure as I'm standing here a future version of myself,

535
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 1: that a decade from now, you're still going to be

536
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 1: winning titles. You're still going to be right there at

537
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: the front of the college football world every year, except

538
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 1: that when you're racking up half a dozen First Team

539
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,199
Speaker 1: All Americans. A decade from now, all but one of

540
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,959
Speaker 1: them is going to be on offense. I don't know

541
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: what I would think about that, to be honest with you,

542
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 1: I don't know unless everything is going complete service academy

543
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: and everyone's going to run the ball ninety percent of

544
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: the time and just it may be Alabama running backs

545
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: and full backs and offensive ligneman winning the award. That's

546
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,719
Speaker 1: what I would think. But that's not the way it's happened,

547
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 1: is it. So obviously it's been talked about. At this point,

548
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: Nick Saban has evolved his program, but now we're looking

549
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: ahead to the playoff. And I thought that was a

550
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 1: really good article that Bud Elliott put on twenty four

551
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 1: to seven sports dot Com. I think it's still on

552
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: the front page, at least it is at the time

553
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: that I am recording this. And again we're having to

554
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 1: record a little bit early because you know, a bomb

555
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,479
Speaker 1: went off in Nashville and we have no internet downtown

556
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 1: where I live, so I'm still down in Georgia. But

557
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: Bud was talking about the value of the number one seed.

558
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: So Alabama's got the number one seed in the playoff,

559
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: and I've heard some people throwing around the stat that

560
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 1: the number one seed has only won the College Football

561
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 1: Playoff National championship one time, and it really doesn't mean anything.

562
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: It's much too small of a sample size, and the

563
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: number one seed in the playoff does not always equate

564
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: to the team that you would power rate number one.

565
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: You know, like to go back to that twenty twelve game.

566
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: It was pre playoff, but even if there was a

567
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: playoff committee that year, Notre Dame would have been the

568
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 1: number one seed. Alabama would not have been the number

569
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 1: one seed. Yet Alabama was favored by ten points on

570
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,719
Speaker 1: the field against Notre Dame and ended up beating them

571
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: forty two to fourteen. So did the number one seed

572
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 1: truly indicate who the number when team that year was

573
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 1: no in power rating style, So that doesn't always mean everything,

574
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: But it does this year because the true number one

575
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: team is also number one in the playoff. Now, it's

576
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 1: very typical. Obviously, if you've made the playoff, you're a

577
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 1: good team. Notre Dame's a good team. They are yet

578
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: a twenty point underdog against Alabama. And if that seems high,

579
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: I'm reading right off the screen right now. This is Budswords,

580
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: not mine. If that seems high, it's because it is

581
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: the record, by the way, for any round of the

582
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: college football Playoff as a betting favorite was fourteen and

583
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: a half points. And that was not that long ago.

584
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 1: It was twenty eighteen. It was Alabama versus Oklahoma. That

585
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 1: was at the Orange Bowl. I was there. I am,

586
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 1: as of the time of this recording, actually wearing the

587
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 1: Orange Bowl pullover that I got from the fine folks

588
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: at the Orange Bowl. And I'm not bragging. It's actually

589
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 1: a sad commentary on my life that outside of the

590
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 1: white T shirts you see me wear, pretty much the

591
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: only time I ever get new clothes is when a

592
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: bowl game gives me new clothes. So I rely on

593
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: the bowl games more than you could possibly know. In fact,

594
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 1: if you guys could do me one favor and some

595
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: of the games out there coordinate with the other games

596
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: and start handing out jeans or maybe the occasional pair

597
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 1: of shoes sandals, I don't care a khakis. Need a

598
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: nice pair of khakis, you know, in case I need

599
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 1: to ever go apply for a loan, for example, I'd

600
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: like to have a nice pair of khakis. I can

601
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: borrow the dress hues from my uncle, so we're good there.

602
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: But here's the interesting stack. Getting back to the actual

603
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: topic at hand, here's the interesting stat This is kind

604
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: of what I was talking about, and Bud pointed it

605
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 1: out numerically here the typical gap between number one and

606
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 1: number four has not been very big. And when I

607
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: say gap, I mean point spread gap. So we're talking

608
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: about the college football playoff. It's been around since twenty fourteen.

609
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: If I were to ask you, off the top of

610
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: your head, guess the average point spread number one favored

611
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: over number four by how much? On average? Would you

612
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: be surprised to know that the answer is less than

613
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Number one has been favored over number four

614
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: by an average of just six point seven points. What's

615
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: that a result of, Well, it's a result of the

616
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: fact that, as I said, the number one ranked team

617
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: is not always the number one power rated team. Sometimes

618
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: you'll have a team like Alabama a couple of times

619
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: actually that is stumbled in the regular season and then

620
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 1: gets in the playoff and ends up being the highest

621
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: rated team in the playoff according to Vegas, but the

622
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 1: number four team according to the College Footballlayoff Committee. So

623
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: the rankings aren't always everything. In terms of power rating.

624
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 1: Now here is where it gets truly interesting, and it's

625
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 1: probably where you want to cut it off if you're

626
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: a Notre Dame fan. It's possible to pull these upsets.

627
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: It's not impossible. It's improbable, but it may not be impossible.

628
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: But here's the problem. Here's why I was talking about

629
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 1: the Alabama from a generation ago, ten years ago versus

630
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: the Alabama from now. It's extremely hard to upset this

631
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: team now. If you don't have potency at quarterback, you

632
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: can do it. If you've got potency at quarterback, like

633
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 1: Kyle Trask in Florida, they were a anywhere from a

634
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: fourteen to a seventeen point underdog, depending on when you

635
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: bet the game. But yet they were there in the

636
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 1: fourth quarter within one possession against Alabama last week, like

637
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: if they were covered an on side kick, they would

638
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 1: have had a chance to go win the game. So

639
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: that's how close they were. You can decide how close

640
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: that is, but that's how close they were. Notre Dame

641
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: it's really unlikely to find themselves in that position because

642
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: there is a certain level of firepower, a certain level

643
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: of what I just call answerability you have to have

644
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: offensively or else you were completely rudderless. You have no

645
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 1: hope against this team. It's kind of like if you

646
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: know you're faster than someone and you're racing them on

647
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 1: the playground, you can afford to turn around and run

648
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: backwards and thumb your nose at them, knowing all the

649
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 1: while that no matter how close they get to you,

650
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: the second you turn around, you got thirty eight percent

651
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: more speed than they do at your top end, and

652
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 1: unless you trip, or unless you pull something, you're gonna

653
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: pull away from them. Alabama knows that. I'm not telling

654
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: you they ever thumb their nose at someone. I'm just

655
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: saying when you're watching those games. Even when you were

656
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: watching Alabama Florida last week, Florida's within one possession late,

657
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: so they're there. They're in the game the whole time.

658
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: Did you ever feel like Alabama was gonna lose? You

659
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 1: didn't because you never felt like Florida was gonna stop them.

660
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: And even if Notre Dame gets a couple of more stops,

661
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: they've got the entire opposite problem. They don't have the

662
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: ability to trade points every time. And it's kind of

663
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: like this funnel that I'm looking at right here that

664
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: I used to cut my protein powder with sometimes pouring

665
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,719
Speaker 1: it into a turkey shake. By the way, it's at

666
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: the very base of the funnel, it's very compact, obviously,

667
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: and about a millimeter or two up it's still very compact.

668
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: But then all of a sudden, as a funnel does,

669
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 1: it rapidly fans out. And that's kind of what Alabama does.

670
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: It rapidly fans out when it comes to margin of

671
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: victory against you if you can trade points with them.

672
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: So if you're at the base of the funnel, in

673
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: other words, and you have the ability to trade points,

674
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 1: you can beat them, Like Clemson could beat them. Ohio

675
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: State theoretically could beat them. They wouldn't be favored, but

676
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: they could beat them. Florida had a shot to hang

677
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: with them because Florida could trade points. I'd be really interested,

678
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: and I don't know what it would look like, but

679
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: I'd be interested to see North Carolina play them like

680
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: Ole Miss played them close. Maybe North Carolina could play

681
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 1: them close. These are teams that have the ability to

682
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: trade points. But just like the bottom end or so

683
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: of that funnel is very compact, very rapidly, it spreads out,

684
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: and that's what the margin potentially a victory for Alabama

685
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: does against teams like Notre Dame when they don't have

686
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: the offensive firepower. So Bud's talking about it in this

687
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: piece and again it's on twenty four to seven sports

688
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 1: dot Com, and I would encourage you to go read it.

689
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 1: And what he's doing is he's essentially taking comparative numbers

690
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: and he is taking the point spread for Alabama Notre Dame,

691
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: and then he's taken prior point spreads like Clemson Notre

692
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 1: Dame or theoretically what would Ohio State be against Notre Dame.

693
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 1: And what those numbers say is theoretically, again, if everything's

694
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: just equal, if Alabama's favored by twenty over Notre Dame,

695
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: then Alabama should be favored by ten or eleven over Clemson. Right, well,

696
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 1: that's not right mathematically. It's right if you're believing everything's equal,

697
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: but it's not because here's what the odds makers are

698
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: going to tell you. If Alabama and Clemson both win

699
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: Saturday or Friday, they will play in a national championship game,

700
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: and Alabama will be favored, but it will not be

701
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: by double digits, and in fact, it will probably not

702
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: be by over a touchdown. They'll be favored, but it'll

703
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: be closer. And so you'll look at the relative data

704
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 1: and you'll say, wait a second, If Alabama was favored

705
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: by this over Notre Dame and Clemson was favored by

706
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: this over Notre Dame, like, shouldn't be shouldn't Alabama then

707
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: be favored by this number over Clemson. No, because Clemson

708
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: has something in the eyes of an odds maker and

709
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: you and I that Notre Dame doesn't have, and that

710
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: is answerability, that is point trading potential. And so we're

711
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: going the opposite way in the funnel. We're going from

712
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 1: the top now down to the bottom. And once you

713
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,479
Speaker 1: get from two inches high in the funnel to one

714
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: inch high in the funnel, there's a huge difference. It

715
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: goes from being really spread out to really compact. And

716
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: that's the margin potential. In an Alabama Clemson matchup, the

717
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: margin potential is really tight. Clemson can beat them. No

718
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 1: one's really looking at Notre Dame thinking they have a

719
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 1: shot to beat Alabama because no one thinks they can

720
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: answer Alabama. They think they can give a nice solid

721
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: fist in the air effort. They think they can do that.

722
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: But folks think that Clemson could actually upset Alabama. They

723
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: don't think notre name can upset them, And I got

724
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 1: to be honest with you, I agree with that mentality.

725
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: All Right, we guessing games to preview here, let's wrap

726
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: it up with this. Let's start with the Peach Bowl.

727
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: Cincinnati at Georgia. I say at Georgia intentionally because this

728
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: thing's being played in Atlanta. Georgia favored by seven. This

729
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 1: is the first kickoff on New Year's Day. It's Friday,

730
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 1: it's noon Eastern time. This one a lot of people

731
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 1: are looking forward to for a lot of different reasons. Cincinnati,

732
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: it's the usual disrespect slash Super Bowl mentality. So the

733
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 1: question always becomes, okay, well, how up is the big

734
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: Power five team going to be? It always sounds like

735
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 1: an excuse, but yet it's just reality. Georgia did not

736
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 1: set out in the preseason to play in the Peach Bowl.

737
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: They didn't, but yet they're there and it's in their backyard.

738
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 1: So you better show up because there are a lot

739
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 1: of places you can look bad at Atlanta, Georgia, as

740
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 1: the University of Georgia not one of them. That's not

741
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: where you want to be. So you always watch for

742
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 1: the physicality. Cincinnati is known for defense. It's the hallmark

743
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: of their identity. They have come on offensively, and the

744
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: defense gave them time to do that this year. But defensively,

745
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 1: I'm very interested to see just physically how they match

746
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: up with Georgia, because I remember earlier in the year

747
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 1: and I'm not comparing these teams at all, certainly not,

748
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,919
Speaker 1: but I remember early in the year there were two

749
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: instances where Tennessee and Auburn played Georgia and the thought was, okay,

750
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 1: physically they can match up, and neither time did the

751
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: other side physically match up. Georgia's offensive line and Georgia's

752
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: overall offensive physicality wore those teams down. Now, Cincinnati is

753
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,439
Speaker 1: a different caliber team this year than Auburn and Tennessee were,

754
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 1: but it still remains to be seen whether the overall physicality,

755
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: the lean on ability, in other words, for Georgia is there.

756
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 1: The opposite side of things, though, is to me where

757
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 1: it gets really interesting. Cincinnati defensively, they got fifteen interceptions

758
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,240
Speaker 1: this year. They've been really good at taking the ball away,

759
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: and so you would think to yourself, all right, Georgia

760
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 1: still figuring some things out. Offensively. JT. Daniels is in

761
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: it quarterback. He's played few games, but yet you got

762
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: a little bit of off time between the last time

763
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: they've played and a Bowl game, Like maybe there's some

764
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 1: rust there, so maybe the hinges are a little squeaky

765
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:13,240
Speaker 1: and the passing games not exactly crisp and Cincinnati benefits

766
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 1: from a few takeaways and that's how they end up

767
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: winning this game. That could happen. I actually think there

768
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,720
Speaker 1: is an equal to or greater chance that the opposite happens.

769
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 1: I think Desmond Ritter and at Cincinnati offense, they know

770
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to push the ball, they know they're

771
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:27,959
Speaker 1: gonna have to score a little bit more, and maybe

772
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: more pressure on that offense than there normally is. I

773
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: think the Georgia secondary is what's gonna be the difference here.

774
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: Getting some key pieces back, maybe more pieces than we

775
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: imagined getting back for this game. I actually think it's

776
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 1: the Georgia secondary and the increase in overall speed and

777
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: physicality in their secondary relative to what Cincinnati seen all year.

778
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be the difference. Our model likes

779
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 1: Georgia to win, and it likes Georgia by about six

780
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: and a half points. I'm gonna go a little bit

781
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: past the number. So I'm gonna take Georgia to win,

782
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna take Georgia to cover. Next up, let's

783
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: go the next day. It's actually the Fiesta Bowl, but

784
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 1: it's January second. It's Iowa State against Oregon. The Cyclone

785
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 1: is favored by four and a half. This is a

786
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: game that kicks off, I believe, in the early afternoon hours,

787
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 1: and there's no reason for me not to know. That's

788
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: why I'm pulling it up right now. Yeah, that game

789
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: is set for four pm, so a little bit later

790
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: than early afternoon, four pm Eastern time. It's Oregon Iowa State.

791
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: So I want you to think about this for a second.

792
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 1: Iowa State favored by four and a half. I actually

793
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,479
Speaker 1: really like Iowa State in this game. Now, I really

794
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 1: like Iowa State. Period. You understand the bias implied here, however,

795
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 1: think even if I were neutral, I'd probably take Iowa

796
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 1: State here. I feel like this four and a half

797
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: number should be about seven. But here's what I think happened.

798
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 1: What I think happened is if we were to rewind

799
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: two weeks ago, Iowa State was building they were rolling,

800
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 1: they were surging, they were playing their best football. Conversely,

801
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: Oregon was falling and they were not even in line

802
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: to play in the PAC twelve title game. But then

803
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: something happened in the West Coast where Washington couldn't play,

804
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 1: and then Oregon gets elevated there and then they're a

805
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 1: beneficiary area of turnover battle and they win the PAC

806
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: twelve Championship game. Meanwhile, Iowa State plays a turnover fueled

807
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 1: game of their own during the wrong side of it,

808
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: and they lose to Oklahoma. And as a result, I

809
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: think we have a combination of Iowa State falling and

810
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: Oregon rising, and they meet at this four and a

811
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: half point number. I actually like Iowa State to win

812
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: the game, and I like them to cover and win

813
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: the game for a couple of reasons here. Number one,

814
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 1: just as we loved Oregon in the PAC twelve Championship

815
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: game because of the misread in the point spread when

816
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 1: it came to turnovers. You know, USC had been plus

817
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 1: all year, Oregon had been minus all year, and we

818
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: just thought it was going to turn in that game,

819
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,359
Speaker 1: and it did. I think a lot of this point

820
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 1: spread is based on the same thing. There were some

821
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 1: egregious turnover mistakes made at the hens of Iowa State

822
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 1: against Oklahoma, and yet Oklahoma still only won the game

823
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 1: by six. I think there were minus three turnovers Iowa

824
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 1: State and they still lost by six. That's not normal.

825
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 1: If you're minus three turnovers in a championship game, you

826
00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 1: normally lose by double digits. And secondly ended up doing

827
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 1: the same thing and versely against the USC. Well, I

828
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 1: say all that to say this, I think the likelihood

829
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: is the more typical versions of these teams show up

830
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 1: in this game. Iowa State probably a little more prone

831
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: to end up on the plus side of that turnover margin,

832
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 1: understanding it's random in any given game. But the real

833
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 1: reason I like Iowa State is for the same reason

834
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:22,839
Speaker 1: I loved Oregon against the USC. Oregon has struggled all

835
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 1: year long against teams that can run the ball. Hadn't

836
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 1: been a long year, but even teams that they've been

837
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,439
Speaker 1: favored against and they've won the game against, have given

838
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 1: them fits when they're just able to run the ball.

839
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: This is the best running back. This is the best

840
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 1: running game they will have faced all year. Breeze Hall,

841
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 1: Iowa State. That's what they do, and you got a quarterback.

842
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: You have to respect enough and party that you can't

843
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: just sell out to stop the run. I think they'll

844
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 1: be able to consistently move the chains all afternoon. I

845
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: think they'll probably have a significant disparity in number of

846
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 1: plays run versus what Oregon's able to run. And overall,

847
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:53,839
Speaker 1: I think they're the better team this year. So I'm

848
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: going to take the better team I think to win

849
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 1: the game in Iowa State. I am also going to

850
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 1: lay the four and a half points think that they're

851
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: going to win and cover. And lastly, let's talk about

852
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 1: the Orange Bowl here. This one, I'm probably outside of

853
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,839
Speaker 1: the playoffs. I'm looking forward to the most and it's

854
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 1: North Carolina taking on Texas A and m Aggie is

855
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 1: favored by seven. It's Saturday night, so it's January tewod

856
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 1: Saturday night, eight o'clock Eastern timekick, so it's it's basically

857
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: the last of the really big games before the National

858
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: Championship game is played. And so let me just talk

859
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: it through with you right quick. We know about the

860
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 1: opt outs. There are a number of opt outs for

861
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 1: North Carolina that's been well documented. Also well documented was

862
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 1: the fact that they ran for like half a mile

863
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 1: on Miami the last time you saw them. I mean,

864
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: the numbers were staggering. I don't ever think Michael Carter

865
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 1: had twenty four carries for three hundred and eight yards

866
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 1: just by himself, and then Williams, Javonte Williams carried it

867
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,280
Speaker 1: twenty three times for two hundred and thirty six yards.

868
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 1: So both of those guys they averaged twelve point eight

869
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 1: and ten point three yards per carry, respectively. That's insanity.

870
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,359
Speaker 1: Some teams can't run that well against air, and yet

871
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,760
Speaker 1: North Carolina did it against the living, breathing, eleven bodied

872
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 1: defensive football team in Miami. I don't think that's going

873
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 1: to be the case against Texas A and m So

874
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 1: here's the problem that kind of stuff, it almost reaches

875
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: a break point where you throw it out for your

876
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 1: future predictability purposes. You should not view that game as

877
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 1: a game where North Carolina ran for over five hundred yards.

878
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 1: What you should do is you should have a cutoff

879
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: point where they let's just say they ran for three

880
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 1: hundred yards, which is a dominant rushing performance, but after

881
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,479
Speaker 1: that cut off the other yards. Because what it does

882
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 1: is it skews your models in the future, because you

883
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 1: were basically running against a dead body. I mean, there

884
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: was no resistance, and so you're never going to face that.

885
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 1: You're not going to face that against Texas A and M.

886
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,879
Speaker 1: So you can get really warped in your expectation if

887
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 1: you don't understand how to calibrate your model. I don't

888
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 1: think they're going to have obviously nearly that much success

889
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: running against Texas A and M. But if they don't,

890
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,280
Speaker 1: what's their backup? What if all of a sudden early

891
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: on they cannot find traction in the run game? And

892
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 1: what I think they'll do because I don't believe that

893
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: Brown is foolish enough to think he can just run

894
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 1: right down the throat of Texas A and M. They

895
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 1: don't have to. Though a lot of the runs will

896
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: be either quick screens or perimeters, speed sweep stuff like that.

897
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 1: They'll find a way to manufacture something in the run game.

898
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,760
Speaker 1: I don't think that physicality is going to be merely

899
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 1: in the edge of North Carolina to the degree that

900
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 1: it needs to be to win this. And I also

901
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: think Texas A and M is not in that classical

902
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 1: letdown spot of a team that expected or wanted to

903
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 1: make the playoff but then didn't. I don't think that's

904
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: the case here. There's a lot of there are tiers

905
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: of motivation and just reading the pulse, getting the sense

906
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: of Texas, A and M. I think there is plenty

907
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: of motivation here because I think they've got a lot

908
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 1: to build towards, and I think a lot of folks

909
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: in that program feel that. I don't think at all

910
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 1: you're going to see any kind of mailed in performance here.

911
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 1: So I like the Aggies to win, and I actually

912
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 1: like the Aggies to cover. And I know I just

913
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: took three favorites in Bowl season and that's historically dangerous.

914
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: I got to go with what the model tells me.

915
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 1: So give me the Aggies to win, and give me

916
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: the Aggies to cover. Really good show tonightppreciate you guys

917
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 1: tuning in again. We hope to be back to normal.

918
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 1: This is our last Late Kick Live ISH of this year, actually,

919
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: I guess Colin. So the next time that we do

920
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 1: a show will be Sunday night. Fingers Crossed will be

921
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: back in the studio and we'll obviously have a lot

922
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: of reaction now. Also we'll probably have some reaction videos

923
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 1: to the playoff games before that, show, so Saturday you'll

924
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: want to be checking out the channel because I'll probably

925
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 1: have some reaction content then too. We won't wait until

926
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 1: Sunday night to cover those games for the first time.

927
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 1: So until then for director Colin for a producer Jordan.

928
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 1: On the podcast side of things, I'm Josh Bate. Thanks

929
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 1: so much for listening and supporting the show all year.

930
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 1: You guys have been great and can't wait for twenty

931
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 1: twenty one. Can't wait for the playoffs this week either.

932
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 1: Until then, take care, enjoy the games, and God bless