1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: There is a really big debate happening Washington, DC right now. 2 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: And this is why I love doing the show, because 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 1: reconciliation is already underway, the debate how it's going to 4 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: be done, even before Donald Trump is inaugurated. And you 5 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: have a lot to say about what happened in DC. 6 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,959 Speaker 2: Well, there's a major strategic decision, a major battle that 7 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 2: is playing out right now in Washington, d C. And 8 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 2: it concerns how do we win the biggest legislative victories 9 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: of the Trump presidency. They are two paths to doing it. 10 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 2: What's called one bill or two bill. Now that may 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 2: sound our cane, but I think it's the difference between 12 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 2: failure and success. This week, Donald Trump came and spent 13 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 2: two two and a half hours with all the Republican senators. 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 2: It's all we talked about that time together. I'm going 15 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 2: to break it down and explain it to you because 16 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 2: it matters enormously if you want to see President Trump 17 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: and this Republican Congress deliver on our promises. How we 18 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 2: do it, how we get to success matters a lot. 19 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: We're going to deal with all that, but first I 20 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: want to talk to you real quick about this new 21 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: year and help that is needed for the people in Israel. 22 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: On January the twenty seventh, the International Holocaust Remembrance Day 23 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: will be here, and we're going to remember the great 24 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: evil of the Holocaust, when millions of Jews were slaughtered 25 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: during the Nazis regime and the reign that they had 26 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: over people with just pure terror. Today, the rise in 27 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: global anti Semitism and the constant attacks on Israel show 28 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: us that it's more important than ever to remember the 29 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: atrocities of the Holocaust to ensure it never ever happens again. 30 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 1: And that's why I've partnered with the International Fellowship of 31 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: Christians and Jews. They provide food, shelter, and safety to 32 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 1: Jews in Israel and around the world, including those remaining 33 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: Holocaust survivors. Your donation today will help provide food, water, medicine, 34 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: and other basic necessities to the Jewish communities in need, 35 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: and through your gift, you will stand with the Jewish 36 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: people and against the growing anti das Semitism and hatred. 37 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: So if you want to stand with Israel and the 38 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: Jewish people, you can give a gift to show your 39 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: support right now by visiting support IFCJ dot org. That's 40 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: one word, support if CJ dot org. Or you can 41 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: call them at eight eight eight four eight eight forty 42 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: three twenty five. 43 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 3: That's eight eight eight four eight eight forty three. 44 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: Twenty five or SUPPORTIFCJ dot org. So center a lot 45 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: of the news and we talked about that. This week 46 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: on Verdict has been around the wildfires and all the 47 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: politics are going on in California. But what you guys 48 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: have been working on in Washington, d C. Is a massive, 49 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 1: not only just strategy of how we're going to move 50 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: forward with the Republicans having control of the House and 51 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: the White House, but also this could be a big 52 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,239 Speaker 1: failure if we get it wrong. So break it down, 53 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: explain people. There seems to be two pathways here people 54 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: are fighting over and you have this conversation Donald Trump 55 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 1: for several hours. 56 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 2: Yeah. So, look, we had an incredible election in November. 57 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 2: We have a mandate from the voters. It's now our 58 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 2: job to deliver on that mandate, to deliver on the 59 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 2: promises we made to the American people. How do we 60 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: get it done? This week, Donald Trump came to Capitol Hill, 61 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 2: he came up to DC for Jimmy Carter's funeral. He 62 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 2: spent over two hours with all of the Republican senators 63 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 2: up on the Capitol talking, and what we talked about 64 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: virtually the entire time was how to proceed to enact 65 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 2: his legislative agenda. Now, as you know, in the Senate, 66 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 2: we have a filibuster. What is the filibuster? The filibuster 67 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 2: is the requirement that you need sixty votes to take 68 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 2: up major legislation. The effect of the filibuster is, because 69 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 2: we have a fifty three vote majority of Republicans, you 70 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: cannot take up major legislation in the Senate unless you 71 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 2: get seven Democrats to support us. So the bulk of 72 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: the mandate from the voters, things like securing the board, 73 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 2: they're not going to get seven votes from Democrats. So 74 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: we can't get it done through ordinary legislation. So how 75 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: are we going to get it done. We're going to 76 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 2: get it done using something called reconciliation. What is reconciliation. 77 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 2: Reconciliation is a process that comes from a specific statute, 78 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 2: the Budget Act of nineteen seventy four, and the Budget 79 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 2: Act sets up that when both chambers pass a budget, 80 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 2: they come together and you reconcile the budget. By the way, 81 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: none of that matters. That's all gobledygook. Here's what matters. 82 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 2: Under budget reconciliation. You only need fifty votes to pass it, 83 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 2: not sixty. So budget reconciliation is the vehicle that you 84 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 2: can get around the filibuster and pass our agenda. So 85 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 2: the reconciliation matters enormously. Now, there are a whole series 86 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 2: of rules for what's permissible on reconciliation and what isn't, 87 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 2: and they're laid out in the statute. The basic idea 88 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: is that on reconciliation, you can pass things that are budgetary, 89 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 2: but you cannot pass things that are policy. Now, how 90 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 2: should we perceive The House of Representatives and the Senate 91 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 2: are having a big argument right now, and the House 92 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 2: and Senator are on different places. What the House has 93 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 2: argued for is that we should do one gigantic reconciliation bill. 94 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 2: We should do a bill that secures the border. We 95 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 2: should do a bill that rebuilds the military. We should 96 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 2: do a bill that unleashes American energy. We should do 97 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 2: a bill that extends the twenty seventeen Trump tax cuts 98 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 2: and makes them bigger and bolder. And we should do 99 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 2: all of that gigantic bill as part of one bill, 100 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 2: one big, beautiful bill. It is how Speaker Johnson has 101 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 2: said that Donald Trump has put. 102 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: In And by the way, there's a lot of people 103 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: that just heard what you said and go that sounds amazing. 104 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 3: So what's the problem. 105 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 2: The problem is it is a path that I think 106 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 2: is almost certain to fail. 107 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 3: Explain why. 108 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: Yes, Look number one, doing a massive bill, complicating things, 109 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 2: doing a ton of things all all at the same 110 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 2: time makes it harder to accomplish. We just had a 111 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago a big fight in Washington over 112 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 2: a CR, a continuing Resolution. The first version of it fell. 113 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 2: Why did the first version of it fall because a 114 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,239 Speaker 2: bunch of people criticized it, said it's too damn big. 115 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 2: It's fourteen hundred pages, this is too much, and everyone 116 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 2: went nuts and the whole thing collapsed. Apparently, the lesson 117 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 2: we've taken from that is that CR was too big, 118 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 2: and our solution is, let's have something ten times bigger. 119 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: Let's have something so massive, because that's what it'll take 120 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 2: to get the votes on board. I believe if we 121 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 2: end up trying to put everything in one bill, it'll 122 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 2: drag on for seven eight months and it'll collapse in August, 123 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 2: and we risk losing all of the momentum we have 124 00:06:55,000 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 2: right now to accomplish and deliver results on Trump's legislative agenda. 125 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 2: So what's the alternative. When we were with President Trump, 126 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 2: this is the case I made to him, and I 127 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 2: argued this forcefully. The alternative is to do two reconciliation bills. 128 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 2: The first bill we would take up right now, and 129 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 2: it would do three things. Number one, it would secure 130 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 2: the border. Number two, it would rebuild the military, and 131 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 2: number three, it would unleash American energy. Why do we 132 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 2: start with those three because those three are relatively easy 133 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 2: among Republicans. We have widespread consensus on all three of those. 134 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 2: On those issues. In the Senate, we got fifty three Republicans. 135 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: We can get fifty three Republicans to come together through. 136 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 3: Do you think that those three are unanimous? 137 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 2: Yes, I think all three of those. 138 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: So that's why it's a no brainer in the sense of, like, 139 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: we get this done, and we can get done quickly. 140 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: For that reason, it's a quick early win number one. 141 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:55,679 Speaker 3: And that's important. Momentums everything. 142 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 2: Quick early wins matter. But more importantly, let's take the border, 143 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 2: the number one mandate out of the election. 144 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 3: Is secure the border. 145 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 2: Now. Trump is going to show up on January twentieth, 146 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 2: and he's going to issue a whole series of executive orders. 147 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 2: I think we may see up to one hundred executive 148 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 2: orders issue on day one. It is going to be 149 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 2: shock and awe that is going to come, and I 150 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 2: expect a lot of that to focus on the border, 151 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 2: and we will see the border crossing numbers plummet. All 152 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 2: of that is good. The biggest driver of that will 153 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: be Trump ending catch and release and actually deporting people 154 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 2: who are here illegally. However, you still need resources. You 155 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 2: need Congress to come in and appropriate likely one hundred 156 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 2: billion dollars to build the wall, to hire more border 157 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 2: patrol agents, to hire more ice agents, to build more 158 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 2: detention facilities and more detention beds, to purchase more assets 159 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 2: like fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft and infrared and drones, 160 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 2: all of the material you need to secure the border. 161 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 2: To back up the policy. We can get all the 162 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 2: Republicans on one page to do that and get that 163 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 2: done quickly. 164 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 3: That's a day one thing. 165 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 2: It's not day one, but it's it's a month or 166 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 2: two or three. It's early border security. We can come 167 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 2: together and do that quickly. Secondly, the military, We have 168 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 2: got to invest and rebuild our military. With the threat 169 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 2: of China abroad, every enemy has gotten stronger. We need 170 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: a serious investment in our military to enhance our ability 171 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 2: to defend ourselves, in particular to rebuild our navy. China 172 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 2: is kicking our ass. They are investing in their navy, 173 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 2: and under Joe Biden and the Democrats, they have allowed 174 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 2: our investment into our navy to wither dramatically. Now why 175 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: is it important to do the military bill in an 176 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 2: early reconciliation. Well, this is where strategy and the realities 177 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 2: of legislation matter. 178 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: By the way, this is a moment in the podcast 179 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: where I would say everybody listening pay very close attention 180 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: so you can advocate for because this might be the 181 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: most brilliant thing set all day. 182 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 2: In the middle of March, the Continuing Resolution is going 183 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 2: to expire. That is what funds the government. When that happens, 184 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are going to use the 185 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 2: expiration of the funding to hold Donald Trump hostage. Chuck 186 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 2: Schumer wants to force a government shutdown. The biggest reason 187 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:29,199 Speaker 2: a government shutdown is really, really painful for Republicans is 188 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 2: it shuts down much of the military, and Republicans care 189 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 2: about defending this nation. Democrats, many of them simply don't. 190 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 2: They're happy to shut the military down. They do it 191 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 2: because it drives Republicans crazy. If we pass military funding 192 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 2: as part of the reconciliation before March, we take it 193 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 2: off the table. It's done, it's funded. It's not depending 194 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 2: on the cr for funding. 195 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 1: So even if there is a government shutdown, and this 196 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: is where it gets complicated by what people understand, you 197 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: do it early before there could be the threat of 198 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: the government shutdown. If once you funded the military, regardless 199 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 1: of a quote shutdown, the military still has everything they 200 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:13,199 Speaker 1: need to operate on normal term. 201 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 2: It means we would have fully funded the military. It 202 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,719 Speaker 2: means we would have fully funded border security. So both 203 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 2: of those continue. And now Chuck Schumer is saying, damn it, 204 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 2: I'm going to shut the government down and we're not 205 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 2: going to pay our s agents and the EPA will 206 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 2: shut down. 207 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 3: You're like, okay, not a bad deal. 208 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 2: And suddenly Republicans are like, okay, Chuck, let us know 209 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 2: when you're done with this little shutdown thing. It shifts 210 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 2: the entire leverage, and it's how Trump wins that is 211 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 2: hugely important. A third component is energy, and again you've 212 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 2: got absolute consensus among Republicans that we want to unleash 213 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 2: American energy. America is the world's energy superpower, with the 214 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 2: number one producer of oil and gas. The Biden administration 215 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 2: has been waging war on text energy, on oil and 216 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 2: gas for four years. That's going to end January twentieth. 217 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 2: But we can pass major legislation to really unleash energy, 218 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 2: which a drives down prices and tackles inflation. The second 219 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 2: huge mandate that came out of the election, secure the border, 220 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 2: drive down inflation. We can do both of those early 221 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 2: early on. And unleashing energy also drives job creation, which 222 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 2: is another huge mandate. So all of this we can 223 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 2: get done and done quickly. The second bill, I believe 224 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 2: should be another reconciliation. We can take up more than one, 225 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: and that should be tax reform. That should be taking 226 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen Trump tax cuts that are expiring this 227 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 2: year and extending them, making them permanent, and I hope 228 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 2: making them bigger and bolder. Now, why should that be 229 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 2: broken into a separate piece rather than combined with the 230 00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 2: first one. Because tax reform is really damn complicated. There 231 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 2: are lots of trade offs that happen. They're trade offs 232 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 2: that are trade offs between all of the different interest 233 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: effects affected. So you have trade offs between C corporations 234 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 2: and S corporations, big companies and little companies. You have 235 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 2: trade offs between employers and employees. You have trade offs 236 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 2: between individuals and families. You have trade offs between parents 237 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,680 Speaker 2: and kids. You have trade offs between how you handle seniors. 238 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: You have trade offs between how you handle capital gains 239 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 2: and dividends. And will resolve all of that, but that 240 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 2: takes a lot of time. When we did this in 241 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 2: twenty seventeen, I spent literally hundreds of hours negotiating all 242 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 2: of these trade offs. You can't get that done in 243 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 2: a month or two or even three. 244 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 3: So what is that? Is that an eight month nine 245 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:51,319 Speaker 3: month timeline? 246 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be the way we ought to do it. 247 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 2: I think we ought to pass the first reconciliation and 248 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 2: get it done by say, March one. We can do 249 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 2: border security, rebuild the military, and energy by. 250 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: February or March, and then it's done, and then then 251 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: it's off the table, and that's a big win. 252 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:13,439 Speaker 2: And then do tax reform. Look, if we leaned in, 253 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 2: we could do tax reform by the end of July, 254 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 2: right before the August recess. I think we either do 255 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 2: it then or in September. Those are the two times 256 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 2: on either side of the August August recess. But the 257 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 2: trade offs you got to understand when when tax reform 258 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 2: is happening, every single lobbyist in Washington is engaged because 259 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 2: the tax code affects everything, and that process of trade 260 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 2: offs just takes time. 261 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: And when you say it takes time, can you paint 262 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: a picture of what it looks like on Capitol Hill? 263 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: Because there's certain let's say you're a hardcore lefty, you're 264 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: gonna have certain lobbyists are coming to you saying we 265 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: need X, Y and z. Then that office takes it 266 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: up on their day to say we're gonna get this 267 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: in there. 268 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 3: Is that how that works? 269 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: And there's conservatives saying we need this over here, and 270 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: then there's radoffs. 271 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 3: Is that how this is? 272 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 2: Yes? Yes, but remember this is during reconciliation. So this 273 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 2: is almost certainly a republican's only play. 274 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:10,479 Speaker 3: Okay, so it's only Republicans. 275 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 2: In all likelihood, all of the Democrats will vote. Now, 276 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 2: maybe they'll surprise us. But the last time we passed 277 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 2: the Trump tax cuts. So you look at something like 278 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: tax cuts, Historically tax cuts have been bipartisan. 279 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, not anymore. 280 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 2: Not anymore. The Trump tax cuts in twenty seventeen and 281 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 2: the House of Representatives zero Democrats voted for them. In 282 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 2: the Senate, zero Democrats voted for them. By the way, 283 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 2: that's a big shift from you go back to the 284 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 2: eighties when Ronald Reagan was president, the nineteen eighty one 285 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 2: tax cut. The lead author of the nineteen eighty one 286 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 2: tax cut was Phil Graham, who was then a conservative 287 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 2: Democrat in the House from Texas. Later became a Republican, 288 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 2: but he was a Democrat. Then you look at nineteen 289 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 2: eighty six, Reagan's major tax simplification. One of the leading 290 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 2: authors of that was Bill Bradley, a liberal Democrats senator 291 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: from New Jersey. It used to be that when you're 292 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 2: cutting people's taxes, you could get both parties together. Today's 293 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: Democrat party is so radical that, at least in twenty seventeen, 294 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 2: they weren't willing to do it. So that's part of 295 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 2: what makes this so complicated. The House of Representatives has 296 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 2: a two vote majority, and you can lose votes on 297 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 2: all sorts of things. Now here is the argument of 298 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 2: the House for why they say they want one big 299 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 2: beautiful bill. They say, well, we got to get the votes, 300 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 2: and we need all of the elements in there to 301 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 2: get the votes we need to get to two hundred 302 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 2: and eighteen. And I got to say, I think that 303 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 2: argument makes no sense whatsoever. So they're claiming we got 304 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 2: to have border security in there because they're people who 305 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 2: wouldn't vote for the tax cut unless border security was 306 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 2: part of it. And they're also claiming we got to 307 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 2: have the tax cut in there because they're people who 308 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 2: wouldn't vote for border security, but. 309 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 3: They vote for that unless the tax cut's there. 310 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: I'm gonna call bs on all of that, and I'll 311 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 2: tell you We sat down and I made this point 312 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 2: to President Trump. So I spoke very forcefully making this 313 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 2: case out. I said, mister President, I went because the 314 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 2: House had leaned in. They said this is the only 315 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,120 Speaker 2: way we can get it past one big beautiful build. 316 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 2: And so Trump came in and said, hey, that's what 317 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 2: the House has told me. 318 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, just to paint the picture 319 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: of the room. When you guys meet with him. Are 320 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,479 Speaker 1: you seated yep? And then when you talk to him 321 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: when you're making your points, do you stand? How does 322 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: it what does it look like? Is it very chill room? 323 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: Is it a is a casual room or very formal. 324 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 2: So we're in a room called the Mansfield Room, which 325 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 2: is a room named for Mike Mansfield, former Senate majority 326 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 2: leader Democrat senator from Montana. Has a big picture of 327 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 2: Mike Mansfield holding a pipe, the big painting on the wall. 328 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 2: It is a large room in the Capitol and when 329 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 2: we met with him, there's a table that's basically a 330 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 2: giant table set in a rectangle, so we're all facing 331 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 2: each other. Okay, so you know, fifty three of us 332 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 2: plus the president around a table looking at each other. 333 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 2: And it's a very nice room, and it's where we 334 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 2: have lunch every day. It is it's actually one of 335 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 2: the perks of being in the majority. So the majority 336 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 2: has lunch in the Mansfield Room. The minority has lunch 337 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 2: in the lbjroom, which is smaller. So when we became 338 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 2: a majority, we got into the bigger room, which is 339 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 2: nice because the LBJ room it's pretty tight quarters. And 340 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 2: so there's a lot more space in the Mansfield room. 341 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 2: So look, I made a case to him because he 342 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 2: came in and he'd been told by the House, Hey, 343 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 2: this is the only way we can get it done. 344 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: And I said, miss President, I want you to understand something. 345 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 3: I said. 346 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 2: We had a meeting earlier today of all of the 347 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 2: Senate committee chairs, all of us, every single one of 348 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 2: us agrees that doing this with two bills is the 349 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 2: only way to get it done. And one bill has 350 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 2: a massive, massive risk of failure. 351 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 3: And extending it to eight months. 352 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 2: And I pointed out to him, I said, look, there 353 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 2: are fifty three of us in this room. I want 354 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 2: you to look around the room. Every single one of 355 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 2: us agrees. All of us I agree, John Thune agrees, 356 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 2: Lindsey Graham agrees. Said look, you've got Susan Collins and 357 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 2: Ran Paul. They agree on nothing. They agree on this. 358 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 2: I want you to understand why. And one point that 359 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:18,719 Speaker 2: I made to him is I said, look, you need 360 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 2: to understand. I love the House of Representers. I love 361 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,639 Speaker 2: Mike Johnson. He's a great man, he's a good friend. 362 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 2: He has a nearly impossible job. So I feel for 363 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 2: how difficult that job is. The House of representatives. More 364 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 2: than sixty percent of the House was not here when 365 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 2: we pass twenty seventeen texts. 366 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 3: Wow, that a significant number. 367 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 2: So they do not understand what goes into it. They 368 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 2: do not understand these thousands of hours of back and forth. Look, 369 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 2: they're passionate, they believe in what they're saying, but they 370 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 2: don't have the experience of having gone through this. By 371 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 2: the way, they also many of them don't understand the 372 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 2: rules of records faciliation of what the Senate could do. 373 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 2: Remember I talked about we can do budgetary things and 374 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 2: not policy things. There's always a battle between the House 375 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 2: and Senate because the House gets mad at the Senate. 376 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 2: You damn senators, you won't do what we want. It's like, well, 377 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,719 Speaker 2: there's a statue that governs what we can do, and 378 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 2: it does limit what the Senate could do. On reconciliation, 379 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 2: that'll be a back and forth. It always is. Every 380 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 2: reconciliation there's a battle between the House and Senate because 381 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 2: the House wants to do things that the Senate is 382 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,360 Speaker 2: not allowed to do under the terms of the statue. 383 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 2: What I told President Trump is I said, listen, if 384 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 2: we put this all in one bill, we have a 385 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 2: massive risk of failure. If we do it in two bills, 386 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 2: we can start with a huge victory, securing the border, 387 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 2: rebuilding the military, unleashing American energy, and then we will 388 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,360 Speaker 2: get tax cuts past. It's just going to take longer. 389 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 2: And you know, on the argument that, well, gosh, this 390 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 2: is the House leadership's argument, we need each piece as 391 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: a sweetener to get the votes. What I've said in 392 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 2: response is, Okay, show me this magical unicorn of a 393 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 2: House member. Cause I know most of these guys. Yeah, 394 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 2: so show me. Don't talk about well, I got members, 395 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 2: I can't get their vote without it. All right, tell 396 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 2: me who you're talking about, crazy right wing knuckle draggers. Okay, 397 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 2: I'm a crazy right wing knuckle dragger. Those are my peeps. 398 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 3: I'll go talk to them. 399 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 2: I'll go talk to them. But when I'm talking to them, 400 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 2: they're not saying that. Are you talking about really moderate Republicans? 401 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,879 Speaker 2: All right, Fine, that's a different that's a different, different 402 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 2: problem to solve. But we talk about that. One of 403 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 2: the issues that complicates this is what's called the salt tax. 404 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:37,439 Speaker 3: Explain that. 405 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 2: Okay, so the salt tax is state and local tax deduction. 406 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 2: So One of the things that happened when we passed 407 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen tax cut is we eliminated. Initially, we 408 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,679 Speaker 2: eliminated deducting state and local taxes. So it used to 409 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 2: be before twenty seventeen, if you're in California and you 410 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 2: pay a crap ton of taxes to the state of California, 411 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 2: you could deduct all those taxes on your federal taxes. Now, 412 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 2: what that ended up doing was having the federal government 413 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 2: subsidize big blue states that tax the hell out of 414 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 2: their constituents, and big blue states that have massive taxes. 415 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 2: You just got it deducted from your federal taxes. And 416 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 2: so we were, like Gavin Newsom, keep raising taxes, the 417 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 2: Feds will subsidize you on that. So in twenty seventeen 418 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 2: we eliminated that. Now we eliminated it, but we actually 419 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,919 Speaker 2: allowed some deduction. We put a cap of ten thousand dollars, 420 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 2: so you can deduct up to ten thousand dollars of 421 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 2: state in local taxes. So you and I are both 422 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 2: homeowners in Texas, the biggest state tax we pay is 423 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 2: property tax. So you and I deduct our property tax 424 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,959 Speaker 2: on our federal income tax. But it's capped at ten 425 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 2: thousand dollars. So if you're paying more than ten thousand dollars, 426 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 2: it's on you. It's on you. Now, what's the political problem. 427 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 2: The political problem is there are a number of House 428 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,360 Speaker 2: Republicans who come from blue states, in particular New York 429 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 2: and California, and the blue state Republicans, the New York 430 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 2: and California Republicans, have a problem because eliminating the salt 431 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 2: deduction really impacted people in high tax states because unfortunately, 432 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 2: their big government democrats keep taxing the hell out of them. 433 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,479 Speaker 3: We talked about this in California this past week. 434 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 2: Those New York and California Republicans feel an obligation to 435 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 2: do something to help the problem of not being able 436 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 2: to deduct more than ten more than ten now, and 437 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 2: so the argument is, well, if we add border security 438 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 2: to it, they'll have to vote for it because they 439 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 2: can't vote against border security. So this is where the 440 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 2: argument makes no sense. I'm like, all right, first of all, 441 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,119 Speaker 2: we tee up the first bill, secure in the border, 442 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,439 Speaker 2: rebuilding our military, unleashing American energy. I don't know a 443 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,199 Speaker 2: Republican is voting against that. The mandate out of this 444 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 2: election was secure the border. Show me the idiot Republican 445 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 2: who is going to say, no, I'm for open borders. 446 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 2: That is a recipe for disaster. You're retiring when you're 447 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 2: doing that, because you ain't running again. 448 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 3: And if you do, you're gonna get primary, You'll get killed. 449 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,239 Speaker 2: None of them will vote against border security. They're just 450 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:10,879 Speaker 2: not going to. 451 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 3: They know the American people, they know what they want. 452 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 2: On the salt issue. Look, will there have to be 453 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 2: an accommodation for New York and California Republican? Sure, there will. 454 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,400 Speaker 2: There will have to be an accommodation. I understand that 455 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,360 Speaker 2: that's part of why this takes a while. You got 456 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 2: to negotiate. There are geographic and regional issues that you 457 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 2: have to negotiate, and there's a trade off. Now, will 458 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 2: the accommodation be restoring in full the state and local 459 00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,360 Speaker 2: tax deduction? I don't believe it will be, because that's 460 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 2: terrible tax policy. That means the red states are all 461 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 2: subsidizing the blue states, and they're bad tax policy. Here's 462 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 2: what I think the resolution will be. This action idea 463 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 2: I got from Norquest. Grover Norquist runs Americans for Tax Reform. 464 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 2: He's a longtime friend of mine, one of the eating 465 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 2: thinkers when it comes to tax policy and Grover's idea. So, 466 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 2: right now, there is a marriage penalty in how you 467 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 2: deduct state and local taxes. You as an individual, if 468 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 2: you file your tax return, you could deduct up to 469 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 2: ten thousand dollars of state and local taxes. If you 470 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 2: are married, as you are, you and your wife can 471 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,399 Speaker 2: deduct a total love ten thousand dollars on state and 472 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,919 Speaker 2: local taxes. What Grover suggests it as a fix is 473 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 2: eliminate the marriage penalty, which means you and your wife 474 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 2: would be able to deduct not ten thousand, twenty thousand, 475 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 2: so it doesn't hurt you. 476 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:41,640 Speaker 3: You're not being penalized forhur being married. 477 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 2: Right now, that's good tax policy as well, getting rid 478 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 2: of the marriage penalty. One of the negative things federal 479 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 2: law does is discourages marriage, and marriage is a very 480 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 2: good thing for our society. I think will end up, 481 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 2: if I were to predict the bill that gets enacted, 482 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 2: I think will end up eliminating the marriage penalty on 483 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 2: the salt deduction, which lets the California and New York 484 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 2: Republicans go back and say, hey, big win, big win, 485 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 2: We doubled the deduction. Now, what it doesn't do is 486 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 2: give a multimillion dollar tax break to Michael Bloomberg. What 487 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 2: it doesn't do is give a massive benefit to billionaires 488 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 2: in New York and California who have massive taxes. And 489 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,479 Speaker 2: I think that's where we'll end up. But again, that 490 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 2: takes time, and so I don't know how we resolve this. 491 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 2: I think we'll end up seeing the two proceeed on 492 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 2: parallel tracks. I think we're gonna see the set the 493 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 2: house for a while, go forward and say we're doing 494 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 2: one big, beautiful bill. Yeah, And I think the setate's 495 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 2: gonna say, yeah, that's fine, We're moving forward. 496 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:40,920 Speaker 3: We're not wasting time. 497 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 2: You're going to go forward with our bill on the border, 498 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 2: on the military, and on energy because we can get 499 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 2: it done. We want a victory and this is how 500 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 2: you win. And look, I don't know how it resolves, 501 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 2: but I can tell you I think it is an 502 00:26:55,680 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 2: enormously consequential question. And frankly, this this is exactly the 503 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 2: reason I think people listen to Verdict for sure, because 504 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 2: there is not another show. There's not a news. 505 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 3: No one's talking about this or covering it or not 506 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 3: a podcast. 507 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 2: People don't understand this, and I will tell you this 508 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,679 Speaker 2: is the single biggest topic that the Senate and House 509 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,679 Speaker 2: and President Trump are discussing right now, and nobody is 510 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 2: covering it in the news. But the reason it's the 511 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 2: single biggest topic is I believe it is the difference 512 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 2: between succeeding on Trump's legislative agenda and winning massive victories 513 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 2: or losing and having a crushing failure. And in my 514 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,639 Speaker 2: view of failure is not an option. We cannot fail, 515 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 2: which means we've got to do it right. 516 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 1: So let's talk strategy to wrap this up, because I 517 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: think this is an important point. I go back to 518 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,280 Speaker 1: one of the best I think PR moves I've ever 519 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,120 Speaker 1: seen was in nineteen ninety four, Contract with America. Firste 520 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 1: hundred days, We've got a contract with the American voters, 521 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 1: New Gingers comes in, we get the House for the 522 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: first time in forty years. 523 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 3: We're delivering quickly. 524 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 1: I believe a lot of voters feel like that is 525 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,199 Speaker 1: the mentality right now, and if we wait eight months, 526 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of people going to be 527 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,200 Speaker 1: very angry that just took so long to get it done. 528 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: And this is about momentum because and you've been in 529 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: Washington for a while, how important is momentum out of 530 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 1: the shoot here to get the win early to then 531 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 1: have momentum on other issues. Because I also think that 532 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,920 Speaker 1: helps people get along. I think that helps conservatives go, hey, 533 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:23,879 Speaker 1: we just had a big win. We just got along, 534 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 1: we just worked out this last deal. Let's do it again. 535 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 2: Look a quick win. Momentum helps when winning produces winning. 536 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 2: There is an argument from the House, well, we can't 537 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,680 Speaker 2: do two reconciliations. It's too hard for us. We only 538 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,719 Speaker 2: get one bite at the apple. I don't find that 539 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 2: remotely plausible. Again, show me the hypothetical Republican that all right, 540 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 2: we passed the bill security of the border, and then 541 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 2: the Republicans says, all right, I don't want to do 542 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 2: tax reform. I'm out. And by the way, if we 543 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 2: do nothing on tax reform on December thirty, first, there 544 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,959 Speaker 2: is a four and a half trillion dollar tax increase 545 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 2: that happens automatically. There is not a Republican in the 546 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 2: House or Senate that is willing to vote for a 547 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 2: four and a half trillion dollar tax increase. So we 548 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 2: have to get this done. So in my view, yes, momentum. 549 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 2: If you score victories, you win victories, That helps you 550 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 2: win more victories, That helps you win more victories to say, hey, wait, 551 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 2: we can get this done. This is good. Let's get 552 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 2: another victory. Let's get another victory. Let's get another victory. 553 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 2: But there's an even broader risk if the one big 554 00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 2: beautiful bill would happen, and it would happen in say 555 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 2: eight months. Okay, fine, that would be okay. I'm very 556 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 2: concerned we get to eight months and the whole thing 557 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 2: collapses because when you make something so complicated, you put 558 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,480 Speaker 2: so many pieces in there, you just increase the risk 559 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 2: of people bailing for one reason or another. It becomes 560 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 2: much harder to resolve the trade offs when you complicated. 561 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 2: I think one of the keys to getting things done 562 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 2: is simplifying and focusing on where you can come together. 563 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 2: And I think breaking it up and doing a big 564 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 2: victory on the border of the military and energy, and 565 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 2: a big victory then next on taxes. I think that's 566 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 2: the path to success. 567 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: Final question for you on this, and that deals with 568 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: the listeners. They're going to say, what do I need 569 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 1: to do? Is this one of those moments where you 570 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 1: encourage your member of Congress to get a quick win 571 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 1: and you say, hey, I sent you there. I want 572 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 1: to secure border. I want to encourage you to do this. 573 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 2: Now, Look, I don't know that this is the kind 574 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 2: of issue that you will. I mean, if you want 575 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 2: to call your congressman, you can. I don't know that 576 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 2: this is the kind of issue that that is needed. 577 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 2: This is more just look deliver wins. This is for 578 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 2: you to understand what's going on because these are the 579 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 2: discussions and fights that are happening behind the scenes and 580 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 2: what the stakes are. And what we try to do 581 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:48,520 Speaker 2: in Verdict is explain things that the media won't explain 582 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 2: to you. 583 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, they're not touching this in at all. 584 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 1: Don't forget. We did this show Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. 585 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 1: This is why it's going to be a very fun 586 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 1: year here on Verdict. So make sure you grab this podcast. 587 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,760 Speaker 1: Hey that subscribe auto dalwo button. Many of you maybe 588 00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 1: watched this on YouTube. Make sure you hit that follow 589 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 1: on YouTube as well so you don't miss one of 590 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 1: these video episodes as well. And the Center and I 591 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 1: will see you back here on Wednesday morning.