WEBVTT - Have Resolve, Show Resolve: Josh Rogin talks with A&G

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<v Speaker 1>Politicians go to Taiwan all the time, and it's just

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<v Speaker 1>it's you don't even hear about it because it's not

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<v Speaker 1>a thing. But all of a sudden, when the story

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<v Speaker 1>that normally you wouldn't pay attention to of Nancy Pelosi

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<v Speaker 1>going to Taiwan, China reacted like what, no, you can't

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<v Speaker 1>do that. Oh my god, this means war. And everybody's like,

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<v Speaker 1>what are you talking about? But well, right, and our

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<v Speaker 1>instinct says there's something else going on, maybe several something

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<v Speaker 1>else is to discuss. Josh Rogan, global opinions columnists for

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<v Speaker 1>The Washington Post, joins us. Josh is the author of

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<v Speaker 1>the excellent Chaos Under Heaven Trump she in the Battle

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<v Speaker 1>for the twenty one century. Josh, welcome, always great to talk.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you glad to be back? In? Your instinct

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<v Speaker 1>is right, there is more going on. Okay, Well tell

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<v Speaker 1>us what it is. Well, you know, it's sometimes these

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<v Speaker 1>things just come down to politicians and their egos. Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>And here you have Nancy Pelosi, who's about to be,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, displaced as Speaker of the House, likely she's

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<v Speaker 1>going to retire, right, and she sees this off to

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan is the capstone of what of her self proclaimed

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<v Speaker 1>career as a leader in U S China relations. So

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<v Speaker 1>for her, this is a legacy item. That's why she

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<v Speaker 1>can't delay it. That's so she went to Tanneman Square

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<v Speaker 1>in and she sees this as the other bookend. So

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<v Speaker 1>she's building a legacy item. But the guys in the

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<v Speaker 1>Wine they don't care about that. Why do they care

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<v Speaker 1>about Nancy Pelosi's legacy trip her? It's essentially a vanity trip.

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<v Speaker 1>They think she's self promoting what she is. And for them,

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<v Speaker 1>right now, they're trying to ramp down tensions in US

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<v Speaker 1>China relations for whatever reason, that's their chess move. They're

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<v Speaker 1>playing a chess game, their moves to ramp down tensions,

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<v Speaker 1>and she's ramping them up. And they're like, hey, can

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<v Speaker 1>you not, you know, mess with our strategy please? Uh

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<v Speaker 1>because maybe nobody ever asked you to do that, And

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<v Speaker 1>she's like, no, I don't care what you say. So

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<v Speaker 1>in the end, you've got these these you know, old

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<v Speaker 1>politicians Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi frankly, who are stubborn

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<v Speaker 1>and neither one of them wants to give in. And

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<v Speaker 1>then when the funny part is that this was all

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<v Speaker 1>being negotiated behind the scenes, very quietly for weeks. By

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<v Speaker 1>the way, weeks they were trying to convince her, they're

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<v Speaker 1>pleading with her, showing her military operations that would be

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<v Speaker 1>necessary intelligence assessments. The story league, and someone asked Biden

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<v Speaker 1>about it, and he confirmed it, and all of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 1>the quiet negotiations were over because he blurted it on

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<v Speaker 1>in the public and he made it even worse because

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<v Speaker 1>then the Chinese really overreacted. And now Fannancy because he

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want to look like she's backing down, So now

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<v Speaker 1>she kind of has to go, oh, wow, you you

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned the age of the participants. Of course, Nancy and

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<v Speaker 1>her husband benefited from the opium Wars, and that's where

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<v Speaker 1>they really made their money. So at the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>though with all due respect of that, which I find

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<v Speaker 1>oddly hilarious, um, the idea that the Chinese would well, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's good to know. But the idea that the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese would get a veto power over any American going

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<v Speaker 1>to Taiwan is utterly galling right, And that's the principle

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<v Speaker 1>that's important to uphold here. Now, what's funny about that

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<v Speaker 1>is that you know from the what the White House

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<v Speaker 1>guys says, and they're like, listen, we know that the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese always pitch in bone, and we're not saying that

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<v Speaker 1>we should give in, but what we're saying is, according

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<v Speaker 1>to our intelligence, they believe that policy is going, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>with the President's support. They can't understand our system that

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<v Speaker 1>like the President of the United States can't control the

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<v Speaker 1>Speaker of the House of his own party. She would

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<v Speaker 1>go and tell him to go screw himself. Like in

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<v Speaker 1>their system, if you sure by the president you did,

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<v Speaker 1>you're gone. You're breaking rocks for twenty years. Your whole

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<v Speaker 1>family is finished forever. So they can't they don't believe

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<v Speaker 1>the bidens when they say no, no, no, we can't

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<v Speaker 1>control Nancy Pelosi and she she just got have to

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<v Speaker 1>lump it. So they think it's an escalation, which is

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<v Speaker 1>like again the opposite of what they're trying to signal.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you know when and then once they sort

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<v Speaker 1>of realized that our system was so sort of dysfunctional

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<v Speaker 1>and they started to believe, they're like, oh, now we'll

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<v Speaker 1>double down and get even nastier and meaner and threatening

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<v Speaker 1>her more. And so I mean, there I think, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>of course we can't back down to Chinese bullying, but

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<v Speaker 1>we have to also understand that the reason that there's

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<v Speaker 1>a risk is because they don't believe anything that we say.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't believe anything that they say. And Nancy Plussy

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<v Speaker 1>is just sort of injecting herself into that situation without

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<v Speaker 1>regard for much of that because again that's she wants

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<v Speaker 1>to do what she wants to do, and I was

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<v Speaker 1>gonna tell her what not to do, and so the

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<v Speaker 1>people were stuck really in the middle of the time

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<v Speaker 1>when he's of course, because you know, like for Hume said,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not very unlikely that the Chinese is gonna start

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<v Speaker 1>World War three over this, right, They're not gonna attack us.

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<v Speaker 1>What they do is they attack the weaker party that's

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan needs. So when she leaves, you know, and they

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<v Speaker 1>impost some sort of new economic or military aggression on Taiwan. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>She's writing the check, but they're paying the bill. So

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<v Speaker 1>do we know what the great chess game is that

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<v Speaker 1>the White House is playing. I'm surprised to see the

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Defense yesterday Mr Austin also making noises about

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<v Speaker 1>this isn't exactly the best timing form. I mean, so,

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<v Speaker 1>what what do we have going on? What's in the works. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden and General Secretary shi Jingping are on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone right now. I mean it's a video conference, but

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<v Speaker 1>they're literally talking as we speak, okay, And that's what

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<v Speaker 1>that's the that's what they're trying to do. They're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to regularize the relationships so that we could at least

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<v Speaker 1>talk to one another. And what they stay is the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden people, the White House people anyway, where they say

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<v Speaker 1>is listen, this relationship is going down okay fast, not

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<v Speaker 1>because we want it too, but because the Chinese Communist

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<v Speaker 1>Party it's getting worse. They're getting more aggressive, more repressive,

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<v Speaker 1>more expansionist, nastier, meaner, acting more like ansters every day.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the White House gets that right. But what

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<v Speaker 1>they're what they're saying is that we're not we want

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of prepare for this struggle carefully. We want

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<v Speaker 1>to do it, you know, we don't want to spark

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<v Speaker 1>crisis unnecessarily. And when we do have a crisis, we

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<v Speaker 1>want it to be on our terms, not on Nancy

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<v Speaker 1>Pelosi's terms. So they're just trying to keep things copathetic,

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<v Speaker 1>and she's messing with that plan. Now. Overall, do I

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<v Speaker 1>think that the Biden administration is doing enough to confront

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese Comments Party? No, but you could understand, just

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<v Speaker 1>sort of from an intellectual standpoint, why on one particular

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<v Speaker 1>day they might not want Nancy Pelosi to start a

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<v Speaker 1>crisis because they're not ready for that. Josh Rogan, global

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<v Speaker 1>opinions columnist for the Washington Post on the line, I

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<v Speaker 1>believe we have live feed of the video conference right now,

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<v Speaker 1>Mr President, you're on mute. Uh the little picture of

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<v Speaker 1>the microphone, sir, no touch it that that, No, just

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<v Speaker 1>touch it once, sir, you're still on mute. So more

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<v Speaker 1>more seriously, Josh, one factor we haven't yet discussed is

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<v Speaker 1>the upcoming coronation of j and Ping Is is a

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<v Speaker 1>third term leader of slash President for life, with the

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<v Speaker 1>economy faltering, the COVID not going away. Um, I understand.

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<v Speaker 1>One factor is we don't want to give him an

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<v Speaker 1>excuse for acting like the hardass nationalist to rally support

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<v Speaker 1>behind him. Right. Well, the two things you've got that

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<v Speaker 1>relates to what you just said. One is that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got this whole region full of countries and right

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<v Speaker 1>we don't want to give him, like any plausible story

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<v Speaker 1>as to to claim that we're the aggressives instead of him,

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<v Speaker 1>and even if it's not true, we don't want to

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<v Speaker 1>give him that chance. But the other thing is that,

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<v Speaker 1>like you know, what the White House guys will say

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<v Speaker 1>is listen, in these few months, it's pretty dicey before

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<v Speaker 1>Jun Thing gets coronated for his third term, because he's

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<v Speaker 1>under the microscope blah blah blah. And that presumes something

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<v Speaker 1>which I don't think it is true, which is that

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<v Speaker 1>after he gets a third term, it's gonna be better.

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<v Speaker 1>My assumption is that once he becomes dictator for life

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<v Speaker 1>like a Putin or an MBS or Kim Jong un right,

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<v Speaker 1>he's actually gonna get worse. He's gonna get nastier. That's

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<v Speaker 1>what happens with you know, psychopathic dictators. Their appetite grows

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<v Speaker 1>with the eating. And so I don't think there's ever

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be a good time for Nancy Pelosi to go

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<v Speaker 1>to Taiwan where they're not gonna do some threatened to

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<v Speaker 1>do some crazy stuff. That's why I think you might

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<v Speaker 1>as well go now, because I don't think it's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>get better later this year. Um. But you know, that's

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<v Speaker 1>the situation we're in. The Chinese Communist Party is becoming

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<v Speaker 1>a totalitarian state, almost a fascist state, and that we're

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<v Speaker 1>all gonna have to do. Is well, that sounds awfully

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<v Speaker 1>damned if you do, and damned if you don't. It

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<v Speaker 1>is because what I was trying to express is that

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<v Speaker 1>j and Ping has to have a justification for being

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<v Speaker 1>recordnated and with the other stuff floundering. If being the

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<v Speaker 1>brave military hero against the West is an excuse, he's

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<v Speaker 1>looking for somebody to punch in the face. And we'd

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<v Speaker 1>prefer not to give him that excuse for all sorts

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<v Speaker 1>of different reasons. But uh, yeah, yeah, no, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's true. But I think he's gonna get coordinated one

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<v Speaker 1>way or the other, and he's gonna get nasty or

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<v Speaker 1>one way or the other. And if we look at China,

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<v Speaker 1>would look at that zero COVID stuff. I mean, it's crazy,

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<v Speaker 1>either killing their own economy, they're putting millions of people

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<v Speaker 1>into quarantine for two cases of like the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the the various don't even work that way anymore. But

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<v Speaker 1>they can't change that. No one can tell the dear

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<v Speaker 1>leader that he's wrong. That's what's so scared worry about

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<v Speaker 1>it is it doesn't doesn't need any more boogeyman, he

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't need any more excuses. He's he's done it. He's

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<v Speaker 1>he's assumed total power. And absolute power corrupts absolutely, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's why China is a big threat. But it's also

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<v Speaker 1>why we can't say that China is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>the greatest country in the world, because all of those

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<v Speaker 1>systems are essentially corrupt and rotten at the core. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's actually good news for us. Um uh the yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>double edged swords certainly. Um So the final on this

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<v Speaker 1>from you, do you think she one has to go

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<v Speaker 1>and will go? Yeah? I mean I don't know. I

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<v Speaker 1>think if I had to put money on it, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think she's gonna go because she's going to Soul,

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<v Speaker 1>She's going to Tokyo. So now she doesn't go, everybody

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<v Speaker 1>will know she backed down. And you know what the

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<v Speaker 1>White House says is, oh, just go after the election.

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<v Speaker 1>It be fine after the election, but she won't. She'll

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<v Speaker 1>be speaker, but should be a lame duck. It won't

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<v Speaker 1>be the same thing. And I don't think she wants

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<v Speaker 1>to take that chance. So you know, if you know

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<v Speaker 1>I think at the end of next week Nancy posting

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<v Speaker 1>in a delegation in Atlanta, Taiwan, And like I said,

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese are just gonna have to lump it. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if fiddlet you know, if they do do

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<v Speaker 1>something really crazy and provocative, then the Biden administrations should

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<v Speaker 1>support Pelosi, not the Chinese. Yeah, and you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>if they do something crazy, that was if they do

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<v Speaker 1>something crazy that was gonna happen over something else. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if they're willing to go to war over Nancy Pelosi

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<v Speaker 1>visiting Taiwan, which is a completely normal thing to do, well,

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<v Speaker 1>then there's something else was gonna happen anyway. And when

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<v Speaker 1>the CCP challenges are resolved, what we should do is

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<v Speaker 1>we should show resolved. How about that? Amen to that, brother,

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<v Speaker 1>Josh Rogan of the Washington Post. You should read them.

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<v Speaker 1>Is the most recent pieces posted at Armstrong and getty

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<v Speaker 1>dot com. Josh, we always appreciate the time well done anytime.

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<v Speaker 1>I love how fired up he is about this topic

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<v Speaker 1>because everybody should be are strong and